Will depressed prices force a Lynas raising?

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Friday money miners.
We're giving hope to bag holders

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today.
We're talking about stuff out

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out of flavour.
Well, mostly rare earths, but

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it's coming back in flavour I
reckon.

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Rare earth and rare earth
applications I believe you're

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gonna go into.
Mate and we've got bloody a bit

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of gold deals going on.
Small for a big company, you'd

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say.
Totally mate.

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There's it could be, could be,
yes, a reason to be more excited

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about the juniors if the if the
majors are getting active on a

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deal front.
I don't need a reason to be

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excited for Underground
Operators Conference.

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No 'cause I am and everyone else
should be excited to get 100

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bucks off a ticket.
Rapidly, these are the.

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Codes MONMOM 100 hundred bucks
off a ticket like it.

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It is the only place in the
world where you get that offer.

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So it's the greatest underground
conference in the world and I am

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going to have a fat time in
Adelaide April 7th tonight.

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Get your tickets now.
It's going to be a sell out.

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Is it?
Underground is the conference

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underground.
It should be, yeah.

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We're it's we're actually having
it at an Olympic dam.

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There's an idea for you, Jimmy
Masters.

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Right.
Let's get into it Linus.

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By the way lads, thank you for
balance sheet tutorials today.

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I have much more appreciation
for half yearly's.

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Probably should have learned it
all before the half yearly

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started getting released.
You can pay me back in mining

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knowledge, Maddie.
Take it away, Linus.

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Let's talk about Linus, a super
interesting company.

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So half yearly results came out
that actually interesting

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quarterly results with a bit
going on between Mount Weld,

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Kalgoorlie, obviously trying to
get up to speed and everything

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going on in Malaysia.
So we're kind of put it all

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together because I think there's
a lot of interesting forces

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moving this business at the
moment, moving the the stock

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price specifically.
You've got all this drama about

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the US, Ukraine, Russia, rare
earth, very tense geopolitical

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sort of moment in the face of
very depressed rare earths

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prices.
So there's a there's a lot going

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on for this 6 1/2 billion dollar
mining company and I thought

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it'd be.
Interesting, a rich 70 year old

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lady.
Yeah.

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Well, to you know, you can
specifically mention her here

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because I was going to compare
Linus and MP Materials of which

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that worthy woman is a
substantial shareholder in both.

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So Linus has for a long time
been a much bigger company than

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MP Materials, which sort of
burst onto the scene through

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that 2020-2021 period.
But right now, as you look at it

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in U.S. dollar terms, the market
cap of Linus is 4 billion.

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The market cap of MP Materials
is 3.9 billion.

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So just an interesting 1.
You can slot that in your your

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hedge fund as a bit of a pairs
trade if you want, Maddie.

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Because wasn't Linus is due to
produce about double the NDPR?

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Yeah, eventually.
We're talking about.

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The mountain pass isn't it?
Yeah, 10 1/2 six, yeah, kind of

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thing.
So mountain passive.

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Have done a lot more work on
actually the the the downstream

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like you've got magnet
manufacturing going on now.

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Yeah, Where is it?
In Texas, isn't it?

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The miners in California.
But the the downstream.

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They've done stuff, yeah.
And I mean, liners to an extent

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is trying to do stuff at at sea
drift in, in Texas as well with

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the with the heavies.
But that's a a bit of ways away.

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And that came off the back of a
bit of helpful funding as well.

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These these sorts of companies
are pretty prone to getting

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favourable financing.
Yeah.

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But the half year itself it
wasn't a great result.

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EBITDA was a 44% miss on
consensus expectations that

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largely came off the back of
higher unit costs and we're

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expected.
So that's absolute terms because

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they are sort of ramping up and
producing a bit more than they

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were if you look at the the
previous sort of periods, but on

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a unit basis as well.
And they kind of point to that

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being a result of a lot of one
off payments, sort of FX

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movements, these these kind of
things which they don't say will

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be a constant kind of feature.
But there's a lot of moving

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parts here.
There's a lot of various bits of

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kit being commissioned that's
happening at Mount Weld, that's

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happening at the new facility in
Kalgoorlie and also in Malaysia.

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So they're in a bit of a moment
of flux.

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They they call it, you know,
they're still making money.

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EBITDA was $38 million.
But if you look at the CapEx

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side of things, $267 million
spent in this half year alone.

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All up that means that the cash
position has retreated over $200

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million to about a $300 million
cash position.

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So that's.
Could be running running the

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Kitty pretty low by the end of
this this half without a

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liquidity injection of some
sort.

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Yeah, that's that's the crux of
it, right?

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The the sustainability of this
rarest price environment for

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everyone, including Linus at
this moment in time is is very

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tough and.
So even in the low fifties, even

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like it's arisen from the low
40s, that's still still not

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cutting the mustard.
Yeah, they'd, they'd love to see

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it, you know, another notch
higher than where we are today

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to, to go beyond especially
after this in, you know, really

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intense period of capital
investment in the business.

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You want, you want a bit of a
buffer, you know, you need, you

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need a buffer in the business.
And I think the, the question

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we'll kind of get to today is,
is that buffer running a bit

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skinny?
And are they going to have to

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you know, look at various ways
of of topping that up and to

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having a bit more sort of
support or insurance in the in

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the business?
There's, there's, there's a few

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kind of cash drawers that have
been at the company for a while.

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The expansion at Mount Well,
which I think is, is complete

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the concentrator expansion.
But the, the Kalgoorlie cracking

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and leaching facility, which to
the best of my knowledge,

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they're still, they're still
capitalizing expenses there.

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So, yeah, even though they're
the unit costs have gone up,

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that's not baking in any OpEx
from from Kalgoorlie because

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that's still being capitalized.
Yeah.

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And I think we should just put
that in a nutshell real quickly

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for the for the mining folk,
what we're kind of talking

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about.
Do you want me to explain it,

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Jada?
Go for it.

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Are you confident it's, it's a,
it's an accounting sort of

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practice right before you hit,
you know, in very simple terms,

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before you hit commercial
production, you can capitalize

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your cost.
You're looking at them as

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investments in the business as
opposed to thinking about them

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as just cost of goods sold and
netting them off against the

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revenue that you're earning.
Hence you can get an EBITDA

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number that is a positive number
when your actual cash balance is

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coming off substantially.
And it's not totally clear here

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because I'm not saying that that
whole CapEx number is just going

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to be an ongoing capitalized
expense.

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A lot of that was a one off, you
know, buying bits of massive

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equipment.
But what is the actual loss or

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earnings on an ongoing basis of
Kalgoorlie?

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That facility specifically is an
open-ended question which we'll

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we'll find out in in due course.
They've now reported that

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they're at a period of
continuous operations at

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Kalgoorlie.
There's a lot of ironing out

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that needs to be done.
In the December quarter, they

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had impurities from the EMREC
material.

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These things sort of happened.
I would love to see as DK

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brought up with us when we first
spoke with him the the Mcnulty's

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chart just to see where they are
on that, how they're actually

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tracking against nameplate
capacity.

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We know that's very telling how
you're tracking in the in the

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first sort of half year and and
beyond about what the plant is

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actually going to produce that
in the long term.

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But, you know, they need to get
to about 1/3 of their material

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coming from, from Cal, from Cal
feed to hit the target run rate

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by the end of this financial
year.

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So that's, that's kind of pretty
soon, you know, that's, that's

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not too far away.
So, you know, we hope they can

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kind of get there.
You've also got the acid

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problem, which we've spoken
about in the past.

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They reckon there's a, there's a
workaround.

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It just comes at a slightly
higher cost.

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They said it's, you know, not
not super material, but no

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specific numbers on that one
yet.

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So we don't know what the actual
cost is going to be that of

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course coming from nickel W
being shut down, that's sort of.

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One thing on acid that when
we're in the DRC where we

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visited a couple of you know,
copper copper oxide plants where

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they're producing the copper
from mining the oxide and then

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putting it through a solvent
extraction Electro winning all

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these mines.
They had acid plants built at on

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site in some cases 2 acid plants
on site to produce.

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I think that mine was doing
50,000 tons of of of of copper

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cathode per annum and the the
capital required to just whip up

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an acid plant.
It seemed like it was, it was

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like AUSUS 40 million I had in
my head and they could like turn

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it around pretty quickly.
Which, yeah.

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Contextual costs probably costs
a bit more in Australia.

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A lot more in Australia, but
yeah, the the sulfuric acid

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constrain that we talked about
with uranium a lot just felt

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contextualized in a different
way after kind of seeing how how

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like abundant these plants were
and how how like quick the turn

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around could have been to whip
them up to.

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Yeah.
Absolutely.

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Because what?
The whole uranium thing isn't

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it?
Wasn't it the Italians are

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building the one in Kazakhstan
or something?

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I don't know.
They keep blaming the Italians

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or something, Italian or French
or something.

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You've got to point the finger
somewhere.

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Right.
Or is it getting the sulfur is

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the?
Well, you have to you have to

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import these massive bags to, to
be a part of that chemical

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process.
So it's yeah, it's there's big

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logistics kind of involved in in
making that kind of happen.

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We'll sort of say just just to
round out on Cow and the the

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broader company in their
production rate, 10 1/2 thousand

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ton per annum.
NDPR oxide is what they want to

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get to the very steadfast.
That's the goal to get to by mid

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this year.
But it's not totally clear what

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what they're going to do beyond
that, whether they just keep

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keep that constant, what they
look to expand, whether they

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dial back given the unfavorable
market conditions, whether they

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have to.
You know, they say that they

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haven't had any problems
marketing their material and and

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selling it, but it always comes
at a price.

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And as a as a relatively larger
producer in this market, do they

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kind of tinker with it a bit?
Do they pull a bit of supply out

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of the market like we've seen
lithium and other sort of

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producers do when the market is
quite bearish?

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We'll we'll see.
It's again another open-ended

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question in this opaque market.
So Lioness, can you say that the

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Australia was there, they've got
no incentive to acquire more to

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produce more rare earths at
another operation?

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We do though.
Well, would they, would they

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acquire something else in
Australia ever or they just

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don't need to, I think.
They're.

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Be too dilutive not.
In Australia, yeah, they, they

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like, let's say they're ironic
clays, you think come in lower

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on the cost curve in the long
run then yes, you do that.

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But they're they're by and
large, the better deposits are

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not in Australia, Yeah.
Yeah.

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And right now, you know, that
would come with not too distant

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big CapEx, Bill, if you're gonna
build the thing.

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And that's not really what the
market wants to see right now.

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I think they're quite content
with what they can do in the

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they want to see them prove out
the the capital investments that

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they've done and that they can
produce at this higher rate.

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So I think, I think the market's
sort of wanting to say that

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first and foremost.
Well, it'd be like like talent,

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the Talison JV going to buy
another lithium deposit.

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It's like you never find one as
good as that because Mount Wells

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such a stand out.
Yeah, that's sort of challenge.

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00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,840
I think we should make a couple
of comments on the the railroad

226
00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,920
market in in general and
probably look like an idiot when

227
00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,120
I say this because it's just
such an opaque market.

228
00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:31,080
But there has been a bit of a a
bit of upward sort of movement

229
00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,600
in the price.
So just the end of December

230
00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:37,240
we're talking about 49 ish bucks
and now we're looking at 54

231
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,400
excluding that.
So roughly 10% increase in in

232
00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,360
the prices.
So that's positive to start

233
00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:45,280
with.
You've then got some relatively

234
00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:49,680
big news coming out of China and
you know, this is in the form of

235
00:11:49,680 --> 00:11:51,960
some draft documents that have
come forward.

236
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,000
The crux of it is that we could
see more consolidation in the

237
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,200
the Chinese market, which more
or less is the railroads market.

238
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,080
I'm talking about the likes of
Northern railroads and China

239
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,280
rare earths consolidating power
hovering up some of those the

240
00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:09,000
smaller producers.
That is a draft, as I said.

241
00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:12,680
So that would need to become
legislation in time, but that's,

242
00:12:12,680 --> 00:12:15,360
that's one to look out for as
well.

243
00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,880
And the the last sort of comment
on the, the market and the

244
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:22,040
ramifications of this massive
drawdown in price is just the

245
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,200
state of the juniors.
Trev, you mentioned, you know,

246
00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:30,840
the, the ionic sort of plays in
Brazil, they're off 4050 sixty,

247
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:35,480
70% in some cases.
It's it's similar across the

248
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,160
board.
No matter what type of rare

249
00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,840
earth project you are, it's it's
pretty grim looking around.

250
00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,800
So, you know, you could say
that's an opportunity for for

251
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,680
the likes of Linus if they want
to look at that different style

252
00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:51,000
of of project or what have you,
But it's not being the best 18

253
00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:55,120
odd months or a bit longer now
for a lot of these rare earth

254
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,320
plays.
And I think that sort of ties in

255
00:12:57,320 --> 00:12:59,920
with a weakening demand
narrative.

256
00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,000
You know, the outlook for wind
turbines isn't as bullish as it

257
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,880
was in that to the early twenty
20s period.

258
00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:10,040
There's concerns that these
credits that you could get for

259
00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:13,080
buying an electric vehicle might
be repealed that could hit the

260
00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:17,360
the demand side of things.
There's new quotas coming out of

261
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,800
China in the next week or so.
So we'll see what that sort of

262
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:23,720
does on the on the supply side.
But I think everyone's a a bit

263
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,880
cagey mixed in with the the
geopolitical angle that I

264
00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,160
mentioned at the start.
Oh mate, it was getting bloody

265
00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:33,560
talked up down at RIU rehearses
because obviously the Hastings

266
00:13:33,560 --> 00:13:36,440
deal coming up so everyone's
bloody dreadnought's getting

267
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,560
talked about for rare earths
again like.

268
00:13:38,560 --> 00:13:41,880
It's not a goal play anymore.
No, no, I think it reconverted

269
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:43,640
back last week.
I'm not sure I've lost track,

270
00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,280
but but that, that was a bit of
a different change in sentiment

271
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,000
around that.
But yeah, as I said, those close

272
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,320
ones, you look at the charts,
they they look like a lithium

273
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,280
nickel chart.
It's just that long, bloody,

274
00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,680
steady, steady descent.
Yeah, there's a bit in common

275
00:14:01,680 --> 00:14:05,200
with them as well, right.
The the end users have a lot of

276
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:08,600
overlaps between, between
lithium, you know, EV demand if

277
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:09,760
we're talking about that or
anything.

278
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,440
So it's not a massive surprise,
even though there are different

279
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,360
supply side dynamics at play,
you know, it's not.

280
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,000
Yeah, I'm not shocked to see
that they're both in the in the

281
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,040
gutter at the moment and maybe
we'll see them in time.

282
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:24,640
Both sort of ebb upwards at the
same time as well.

283
00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:28,480
Well you think what Jane has got
what, 8 and a bit percent of

284
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,160
liner, so it's a bit over half a
bill.

285
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:34,880
Twiggy's now got 60% of Yanja
banner potential to go to 70%

286
00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,680
with another 20 mil.
So the the magnets are going to

287
00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:39,640
be fighting over rare.
Earth magnets.

288
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:40,640
Magnets.
Yeah.

289
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,560
Very good.
Very good.

290
00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,560
In fact, the yeah, the Twiggy 1
is interesting because what came

291
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,320
with the Hastings deal were 20%
of the shares in this company

292
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,200
called Neo Performance
Materials, which is a a magnet

293
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,880
manufacturer, which is a really
interesting business, one of the

294
00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,040
one of the few that exists ex ex
China.

295
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,360
Well, and that, but that was the
wasn't the whole thing that

296
00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:03,840
Hastings was going to.
They wanted to, really couldn't.

297
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,360
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so something's getting

298
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:09,960
built or or I can rearros are
the only thing that S WIC hasn't

299
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,240
drilled for.
I could, I could like consider

300
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:16,040
an underground like it's all
surface stuff.

301
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:17,640
Don't think there's any
underground.

302
00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:20,320
What rarer?
So out of that 17,000,000 drill

303
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,200
meters probably getting closer
to every time we say 17, it

304
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:26,960
means we're getting closer to
18,000,001 slope closer to

305
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,080
18,000,000.
But I don't think they've done

306
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:30,720
rare earths.
Can you imagine if they started

307
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,920
drilling for rare earths?
What, like talk about a

308
00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,680
saturated market if Swick
started finding rare earths

309
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,080
underground?
So flooded, oversupplied so.

310
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,600
Any way to put?
It an absolute foundation of

311
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:47,520
underground exploration drill
and boys and mate bloody and the

312
00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,400
foundation of drill and belong
beyond 2000 meters with the DPX

313
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,600
team.
So mate, 2000 meters, 2000

314
00:15:53,600 --> 00:16:00,320
meters mate just +2000.
So just let your imagination run

315
00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,480
wild.
So mate, if you want a bloody

316
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,040
drill on one of their 90 rigs,
just get in touch with Swig or

317
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:09,520
the Parenti team and mate go
break some records.

318
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,040
Go swig, go swig.
Just on, just on rarest.

319
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,920
Before we move on, Maddie,
question for you JD.

320
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:17,560
Do you think Clowners will raise
money?

321
00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,880
So what I was tossing out is
will they raise equity or will

322
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:25,440
they get another sort of
friendly package from the

323
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,200
government?
Will they look at something like

324
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,960
a prepayment given their their
sort of stranglehold in that

325
00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:32,800
market?
Would they consider some form of

326
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,120
debt?
They sell a stake in the

327
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,160
project.
Would they sell a stake?

328
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:40,360
Yeah.
Be really getting into yourself

329
00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:42,880
in the long term if you're if
you're thinking about it that

330
00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,920
way, everything's on the table.
I think equity is the the route

331
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,960
that they'll go down.
And I, I kind of do think, you

332
00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:51,680
know, I had a skim through some
of these.

333
00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:53,760
It's massive.
It'd be a.

334
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,640
Huge bloody God, imagine that
fighting that ticket.

335
00:16:56,960 --> 00:17:00,000
Yeah, and it wouldn't even be
massively dilutive.

336
00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,120
Yeah, right.
This is a $6.4 billion company,

337
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,800
I think.
They're it's 400 in 2020, I want

338
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,079
to say.
Yeah, I think that's the the

339
00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:09,480
route they end up going down.
I mean, you have a quick skim

340
00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,839
through a lot of these research
reports and we're all

341
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:15,079
forecasting a big tick up in
rare earth prices to come in

342
00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:17,560
very soon.
And of course they are.

343
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,760
Yeah, of course they are.
Exactly.

344
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:25,960
So I, yeah, I don't, I don't
totally see it playing out that

345
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:26,960
way.
I just think that needs to

346
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,680
happen way sooner than you kind
of like.

347
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:32,040
And you're just running, running
a bit too.

348
00:17:32,360 --> 00:17:34,360
You're flying a bit too close to
the sun, if you're, you're

349
00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:36,600
honest.
Why not just pop up to the tune

350
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,160
of a few $100 million?
Top 20 shorter companies on a

351
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,480
Sxi think I think that I think
the reasons, yeah, combination,

352
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,240
maybe the pairs trade, but more
likely the funding.

353
00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,280
Yeah, 9% short interest right
now in in Linus and I think a

354
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,880
few people are in anticipating
that one and I mean a.

355
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,080
Tie up with MP also, you know,
if you if you agree a tie up,

356
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:58,960
then there's an opportunity for
a sort of interim facility to

357
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,720
pop in there in the midst of the
deal, which might tie tie any

358
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,160
loose ends over until that deal
completes too.

359
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,920
Absolutely, although I think the
the ratio is not not what it

360
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,560
once was and Linus are a bit
more put off at the moment on

361
00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,440
that front.
Who do you think benefits more,

362
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:15,080
an Australian company or AUS
company amidst all of the

363
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:19,520
geopolitical dynamics?
Well, I mean, yeah, I do agree.

364
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,720
I think they're both relatively
OK at the moment.

365
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,040
But you know, it's a, it's a,
it's a bit of pill to swallow at

366
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,000
an individual level.
If you've been, you know, such a

367
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,200
stronger market cap for so long
and then you have to do the

368
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,280
deal, the big deal at A, at a
real markdown.

369
00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,800
There's there's another part
that we didn't even get to and

370
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,360
that's like the changing ore
body at Mount Weld, which I've

371
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:44,320
spoken to a bit in recent calls.
Talking a lot about the heavies

372
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,800
and these sorts of.
Things they spin it in a, in a

373
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,640
very positive way about having
greater understanding of the,

374
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,000
the, the bigger upsized mineral
resource.

375
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,120
But I, my, my layman's
understanding is like a very

376
00:18:55,120 --> 00:18:56,560
high grade kind of weathered
part.

377
00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,160
He's sort of depleting.
And now they're getting to like

378
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,480
a different kind of section with
a lot more, a lot of various all

379
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,800
types.
And maybe the unit costs are

380
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:06,120
going up as a result of some of
that too.

381
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:07,040
Yeah.
You can.

382
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,680
You can spin that positively.
But it's all just free dig isn't

383
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,120
it?
Like the year I'll support.

384
00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:15,000
It's like then.
They're definitely not mining

385
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,760
constrained, are they?
Not mining constrained, but.

386
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,680
Like the unit process cost of
the.

387
00:19:20,120 --> 00:19:23,240
The the grade of the carbon a
tight is is super highly

388
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,320
enriched at the top.
Yeah, you get this like

389
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,640
weathered zone and then and then
the grade tape is massively I

390
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:32,640
think, I think Fact Check this
afterwards, but that you know

391
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,720
they're they're getting to the
lower grade part now.

392
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,920
So they did have the technical
people on the half yearly call

393
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:38,560
to to speak through that.
Yeah.

394
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,160
That that those sort of specific
questions that were being.

395
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:43,680
Asked which, if that's the case,
then you know the relative value

396
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,200
with MP makes complete sense and
don't expect to, you know, be

397
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,280
the be the the bigger company in
that tie up.

398
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,800
Time will tell.
Right here's buddy, you want to

399
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:58,000
say on my just YouTube surfing
check these bloody things out.

400
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,800
This could be bloody talking
about prices of rare earths

401
00:20:01,800 --> 00:20:03,840
rising.
Have a watch it have a look at

402
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,360
this.
AI powered humanoid robots are

403
00:20:06,360 --> 00:20:09,800
officially here, and they're
already being deployed at scale

404
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:14,680
in Shenzhen, China, a city known
for its rapid technological

405
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,640
advancements.
Humanoids powered by Deep Seek

406
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,600
AI and Engine AI robotics are
now assisting in government

407
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,120
operations, public service, and
even law enforcement.

408
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,320
Meanwhile, 70 AI powered digital
employees have been deployed to

409
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,800
handle government paperwork,
making decisions, interacting

410
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,480
with humans, and correcting
errors with astonishing

411
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,800
accuracy.
Engine AI Robotics is offering

412
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:43,840
the PM 01 at a starting price of
just $13,700.

413
00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:50,720
Wow 13,700 bucks USI assume to
replace humans doing shit that

414
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:53,680
humans don't want to do.
I'm getting one at my house for

415
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:58,200
for sure humanoid robots but
like they.

416
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,760
It's the bull case.
Well, you're just thinking, so I

417
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:06,200
I, I, I, I, I, I always reminded
me of the.com bubble.

418
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,760
Like it's just anything with IOI
on it at the moment is just, but

419
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,520
it's like friggin also, it's
like bloody lithium.

420
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,720
It's that it's that many that
abundant and it's all just a

421
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,800
branding market share race to
the bottom thing at the moment.

422
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,440
And regarding that race to the
bottom, I'll just show you

423
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,800
another video of CNBC last
night.

424
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,920
Shortly after deep seek released
its open source reasoning model,

425
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:31,200
open AI made a free version of
its most advanced O3 mini

426
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,800
available from their products
and features.

427
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,400
Entire models, even from the
likes of Google, Microsoft and

428
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,240
XAI made available to users at
no cost to them.

429
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,200
So essentially a land grab amid.
This rapidly commoditizing

430
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,520
landscape.
So you can see like you, you

431
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,280
talk to anyone that's building
AI stuff.

432
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:54,080
It's all, it's like it's all
open source central models.

433
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,720
It's all, they're all shared
models.

434
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,520
It's all, it just seems like a
lot of branding front end

435
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,520
changes and everything, but all
lot the AI is there.

436
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,840
So it's, but and it's like, what
is it all going to be used for?

437
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:13,080
So we've talked about data
centres to death with the, you

438
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:18,200
know, uranium to potentially
power them, the copper wire and

439
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:23,000
tin soldering bloody what else?
All that chips, all the chips in

440
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:25,320
it and everything.
So that's, that's the power to

441
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,160
power the IO.
But then what's it going into?

442
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,440
So you look at these like, if
this is potentially one thing

443
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,440
that could, we're looking at in
the future that these humanoid

444
00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:37,120
robots are going to be frigging
replacing all the mundane shit

445
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:39,880
that we don't want to do and we
essentially become redundant.

446
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:46,040
I'll be the first one become
redundant, but what goes into

447
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,720
these friggin things can Can you
imagine one of these in every

448
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,440
like in all the houses around
the world eventually like

449
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,120
manufacturing, like mining?
Yeah, yeah, a whole bunch of

450
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,000
applications could.
Well, they're like the police

451
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,000
for imagine taking, putting.
These in robot.

452
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,600
Well, that's what they're doing
in in China.

453
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:04,320
They're using it for law
enforcement.

454
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,440
So you imagine you haven't got a
person there that if you shoot a

455
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,280
robot, who cares?
Like, yeah, like it's like it

456
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,760
totally changes the risk to
putting humans in enforcement.

457
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,960
Like going to be fucking
intimidating.

458
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,920
Now you're going up to a robot.
You're like, what's this thing

459
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,000
going to do to me?
Like you can't reason with it.

460
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:27,280
It'll just fuck, just knock you
out with a titanium fist.

461
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:32,960
But I thought, what goes into
this, like the mining materials,

462
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,160
if this is where AI is heading,
like, how's it going to affect

463
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,520
commodities?
So if you look at what these

464
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,320
things are made of aluminium
alloys and titanium for the

465
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:44,920
body.
So I'm not sure how much

466
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,240
aluminium these will take
compared to massive things of

467
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,320
aluminium.
So what that'll do for bauxite,

468
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,520
aluminium and that, but like
titanium.

469
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,360
So that's like, you know, the
Ilmenot and Rotol industries,

470
00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,720
that's that's where the titanium
comes from.

471
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:04,280
Shit load of internal wiring and
chips, obviously copper for the

472
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,640
wine, but then all these chips
use the rare earths.

473
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:12,080
So like NDPR, like gallium,
cerium, that's all comes from

474
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,240
monocytes.
So that's great for rare earths,

475
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,880
the power and charging.
So they're all going to have a

476
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,640
lithium ion battery, you would
assume.

477
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,880
So that's like this.
That could be a rebound for

478
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,000
lithium.
All the motors, sensors,

479
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,720
actuators for the robotic limbs,
that's all rare earth magnets,

480
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,480
so NDPR mainly.
But then you know, like the the

481
00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,480
heavy rare earths, the DYTB,
that's what the temperature,

482
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:39,600
temperature tolerance for the
magnets.

483
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:41,880
So that's what gets added, added
into those.

484
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,040
So very, very interesting
looking at that.

485
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,120
You're always thinking right,
what's what's the next bubble?

486
00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:52,240
What's the next thing to pop and
what's the next thing we're not

487
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,320
thinking about?
Looking at that last night, it's

488
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,320
like, fuck is this if that's
already getting deployed in

489
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:03,560
China, flat out I'm getting I'm
100% getting one to clean the

490
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,240
ass and fucking cook me shit
saved me getting Uber eats and

491
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:12,240
because I hate changing bed
sheets, kids school lunches

492
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,200
right the.
Possibilities are endless.

493
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,440
But yeah, it was fascinating, I
thought.

494
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,200
And just just thinking of where
this, the whole AI thing first

495
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,920
looks like a bubble, like not a
bubble, the concept, but a

496
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,520
bubble of everyone trying to
tack on using AI doing this.

497
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,880
But it just looks like it's so
it's just going to get market

498
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,040
shared by obviously your deep
sake, your Meta, you Google,

499
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,120
your Microsoft, your Alphabet
and Microsoft and that and

500
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:44,200
they're just looking to do it
for nothing at the moment.

501
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,080
What are your boys thoughts on
all that?

502
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,360
Tech Tech advances wonderfully
bring productivity improvements

503
00:25:51,360 --> 00:25:54,360
and those productivity
improvements might help us, you

504
00:25:54,360 --> 00:25:57,520
know, in the ways that we use AI
to help us already or, or they

505
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:58,720
can come in the physical world
too.

506
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,720
I'm excited to see some of the
physical world development

507
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,120
stimulus productivity
improvements.

508
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,640
It'll be a wonderful application
of the tech advancements that

509
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:09,560
we've had and a great thesis.
If if the I'd love to know when

510
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,760
the first electric vehicle was
actually kind of made.

511
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,000
What was the time between that
and when you had kind of a

512
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,720
lithium market shortage, right?
Because these things take a lot

513
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,480
of time to get real traction and
adoption.

514
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,360
It's not just sort of like
subsidized kind of adoption and

515
00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:26,160
sometimes there's a, an app or
a, you know, a specific use case

516
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,120
of people like, fuck, I need it
for that reason, next reason,

517
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,000
And maybe it's a bit clunky
until then, it gets a bit

518
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,040
better.
But I'd love to know, you know,

519
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,640
how long can you expect?
But these are pretty new.

520
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,040
I saw the first one when Tesla
had their investor day last

521
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:38,800
year.
So it's not, they're not like

522
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:41,880
it's not like they've been
around for a long time yet.

523
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,920
But I'd love to to know what's
the real time expectation before

524
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:46,560
you might be able to see some
constraints in some of these

525
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,800
markets based on current supply?
I think I, I keep going back to

526
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:55,520
the nickel boom, but it's when,
when you're physical the last

527
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,840
one recent the boom that didn't
really do anything.

528
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:02,640
Except the short squeeze.
No, no, just the just the hype

529
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,880
around all these nickel mines
getting developed, but the

530
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,440
actual nickel price just did not
go to where they were

531
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,040
predicting.
And that was all on a a thesis.

532
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,960
This this global thesis that was
out there is like, we need more

533
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,320
nickel for long range batteries
and that's it.

534
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:21,720
Like the the actual, the demand
wasn't there yet, but everyone

535
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,360
started building mines because
nickel was going to 16 bucks a

536
00:27:24,360 --> 00:27:26,520
pound.
So with this sort of stuff, it's

537
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,720
like we're interested to know
once if there's just once the

538
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:34,800
global thesis changes, if that
does similar to what nickel did.

539
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,720
And like prices start going up
because everyone just wants it

540
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,480
before they actually need it.
Yeah.

541
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:40,880
So.
It's really interesting.

542
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:46,200
I always think about this, this,
this like prologue to a book

543
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,560
that I read ages ago called, I
think it's called Capital Cycles

544
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,280
by Marathon Asset Management.
And they spoke, they speak about

545
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,240
capital cycles in heaps of
different industries and they

546
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,120
highlight that they're very
pronounced in natural resources.

547
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,440
They always think about it from
two sides, demand and supply.

548
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,680
And they never put too much
weight in the, the demand side

549
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,880
because they, they find that
very hard to quantify.

550
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:10,600
They always look at the supply
side.

551
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,560
So that's much easier to, to put
into numbers, not easy, but

552
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:18,080
easier than the, the other side
of, of the equation.

553
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,800
And I mean, these guys are sort
of deep value investors, but

554
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,440
the, the stories that get spun
and they give so many different

555
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,600
examples about the, the demand
side, what's going to be the

556
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:28,680
next thing, what's going to blow
off.

557
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,480
And most of them don't, don't
kind of eventuate.

558
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,040
It's all they have.
They just come about in a very

559
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,280
different form to what you might
have thought earlier and it's an

560
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:38,520
interesting way to think about
it.

561
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:42,520
But kind of investing with that
support of of the cost curve.

562
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:46,920
And you know, when you're
getting into say a commodity

563
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,040
that has had very little CapEx
sunk into it over a long period

564
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,720
of time, then you've got a kind
of stable foundation.

565
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:56,120
You pick an asset in the the
lower quartile or half of the

566
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,000
cost curve going about it that
way.

567
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:02,280
And, you know, maybe somebody
bits during the boom and they

568
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,600
make 10 times their money in in
half a year and they they make

569
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,280
all the returns these guys would
make over a number of years and

570
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:11,040
they get there much quicker.
Everyone's got their own sort of

571
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,720
style of investing.
But yeah, it's it's very hard to

572
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,920
actually forecast where these
demand actually comes into the

573
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:18,840
fore.
When are you actually going to

574
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:19,800
see it?
When are we actually going to

575
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,080
have these robots in our kitchen
doing these things for us?

576
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:24,960
But completely agree.
It's endlessly like fascinating

577
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,320
to watch these videos on YouTube
to see the promos from Tesla or

578
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,200
I think Boston Dynamics are
another one that make this sort

579
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,840
of humanoid robot.
It's so, so interesting, right?

580
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,520
Yeah, and it's like, and there's
one thing predicting when the

581
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,120
demands kind of come in, but
it's the the equity hype.

582
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,960
Yeah.
In the lead up to it, if you you

583
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,040
get.
And nickel was the example, like

584
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,840
you could get on that train and
get out.

585
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,360
And nothing even happened to the
underlying commodity price,

586
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,720
except it went down afterwards.
Yeah.

587
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,040
So.
Oh, that's the, I'll have a good

588
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,160
punt.
Yeah.

589
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,160
How good is it?
Who's going to be the first

590
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,680
mover for humanoid robots in
Australia, do you think?

591
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:01,320
Not an Australian?
Company.

592
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,840
What about Quattro What what
based on everything they've

593
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:10,840
invented for underground mining
and what what I just didn't come

594
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,800
to Jeremy Palmer's the first
person that come to my mind of

595
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:18,200
who's going to be doing party.
I'm sure, I'm sure burn Cutter

596
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,000
likes and robots underground
because.

597
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,760
It'd be cheaper.
Like they they always turn up

598
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,320
for work.
I reckon Quattro you're wanting

599
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,600
people.
Maybe if you want to work for

600
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,760
Quattro, I'd get in quick
because there's a good chance

601
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:36,000
they're going to be first movers
in humanoid robots and they're

602
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,400
going to replace bloody They're
going to be building pace

603
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,840
plates, pump stations,
installing pace diversion valves

604
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,520
and everything with Quattro
humanoid robots.

605
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,360
If I'm a mining company, I can
just hire these guys.

606
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:53,200
Is that easy?
You can APC gurus light surface

607
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:57,720
underground engineer design
construct mate they've patented

608
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:01,280
bloody everything so I just.
Best in the biz?

609
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,840
Don't jazz.
Don't let these humanoid robots

610
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,920
distract you from your
foundations of APC and inventing

611
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:09,600
great things for underground
mines.

612
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,320
There isn't open pits and sorry
surface constructions.

613
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:17,280
As efficient as they get in the,
you know, the engineering stuff

614
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,280
mate, the APC sort of things and
can see them just embracing the

615
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:21,960
efficiency of of the humanoid
robots.

616
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:22,960
I'm excited.
Go Quattro.

617
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,600
Go Quattro.
All right, they're back on.

618
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:33,400
Just to close off, it's amazing
the people that educate me, the

619
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,800
tailings dam chat about Lakewood
and that.

620
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,840
So just some great people out
there.

621
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,000
Just think Maddie just needs a
nudge in the right direction.

622
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,160
So you can actually, when we're
speculating of how long this is

623
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:49,400
approved for this Lakewood TSF
tailing storage facility, you

624
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:54,080
can actually go on to D word
Department of Water environment

625
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,720
regulation or something.
They just type in D word

626
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:01,200
license, that's it, something D
word license in the Google.

627
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,000
And then you just type in
Lakewood and you can find the

628
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:08,880
actual licenses and approvals
that have been granted for any

629
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,760
sort of any tilings, any
whatever relating to water and

630
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,800
environment.
So like here's the actual table

631
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:20,920
showing that for Lakewood and
we're talking about if it's five

632
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,400
years.
So it says from August 2029, TSF

633
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:29,040
2 stage 5, which is the final
stage approved under this works

634
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,760
has a 7.3 month duration.
So it goes out till a bit, you

635
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,880
know, mid 2030.
So it was five years.

636
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,960
But, and I'll bring up the
pictures here of like when we're

637
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:44,040
talking about these, these
lifts, where are these?

638
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:45,240
Bloody hell, they're in there
somewhere.

639
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,440
So you can see how obviously
each lift is built on top of the

640
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,840
tails inside it and it starts
concaving in.

641
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:57,080
So, and you can only pour
tailings in or tailings to him

642
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,880
at a certain rate of rise.
So that's why you can see the

643
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,640
durations like, you know, TSF
stage 120 months.

644
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,440
By the time you get down to
stage five, it's seven months.

645
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,600
So the decision you can get
further lifts approved because

646
00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:15,360
like the original TSF one,
that's potentially going to

647
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,120
stage 10 if they get it
approved.

648
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:23,120
But for each lift, it's a CapEx
versus how much tiles you can

649
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,960
put in.
So the rough number I got tiled

650
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,720
was about 2 bucks a tonne.
So like if you got a 1,000,000

651
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:34,240
tonne plan, it's going to cost
you roughly 2 capitalized over

652
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,200
different periods. 2,000,000
bucks a year in in tailings

653
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,200
lifts.
So but if you once you get to

654
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:44,160
the high bid, it's going to cost
the same amount per or more to

655
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,320
add a lot less tilings to the
future.

656
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,520
So that's where the whole
balance comes in.

657
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,280
But if you're charging a shit
load for toltrating and you make

658
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,680
it a better processing guard,
you probably lift the tilings.

659
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,480
Damn.
So that was bloody fascinating

660
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,320
stuff.
Thank you to the astute

661
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,600
educators out there.
Awesome man go D work right.

662
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:09,000
What's happening?
So the I think we've talked

663
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,120
about this Bob about are they
going to leave Australia at all?

664
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,520
But they're they're they're
coming back in.

665
00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:17,600
Not big, but yeah, yeah, this is
expanding.

666
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:21,440
And like old Ashanti.
They are indeed it it appears

667
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,960
Maddie JD Angle got Ashanti.
They've, they've come out today

668
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:29,960
with mats of resources who have
advertised that Anglo Gold

669
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,960
Ashanti execute a $101 million
deal to pick up the Lake Kerry

670
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:36,120
gold project.
Now there's a bit of mail on

671
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,080
that on that headline, which
I'll, I'll tease out.

672
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,960
Anglo, we, like you said, we
don't put the spotlight on them

673
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,120
too much, but we, we, we should,
I mean, they're a big global

674
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,040
gold miner that doesn't even
have an ASX listing anymore.

675
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,679
But that's in, you know, the
other reason we maybe haven't

676
00:34:50,679 --> 00:34:53,400
talked about them too much is
because their deal activity in

677
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:54,760
Australia has been sweet fuck
all.

678
00:34:54,760 --> 00:35:00,080
And until today, really kind of
it's it's it's emerged that that

679
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,160
this deal that they're doing
with with with MATSA, what

680
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:04,760
they're going to do.
It's an option agreement with a

681
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,240
few conditions.
And the crux of it is that angle

682
00:35:07,240 --> 00:35:10,360
gold Ashanti, they get the
option to buy the Lake Kerry

683
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:14,800
gold project for for 18 months.
They can execute it within from

684
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:16,960
the satisfaction of some
conditions precedent.

685
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:20,360
The only real upfront cash is
like 500,000 dollars, 8,000,000

686
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,920
bucks drips in so after the CPS
are satisfied and the big chunky

687
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,040
part only if Anglo exercises the
option.

688
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,960
The conditions I was talking
about, they largely relate to

689
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:31,800
roofers or consents or
approvals.

690
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,000
Nothing you really think will
kill the deal but things you

691
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,480
just got to get ticked.
But because Anglo has 18 months

692
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,080
to choose to pull the trigger or
not, it sort of leaves some some

693
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:43,640
ambiguity here.
Should should Anglo exercise the

694
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:50,760
option that will pay 1.875% of
the in situ value of the 936,000

695
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:54,760
oz gold resource at that time in
cash?

696
00:35:55,160 --> 00:35:57,400
Let's say gold is four and a
half $1000 and Angle will pay

697
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:02,720
four and a half. 1000 * 1.875% *
936,000 equals roughly

698
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,080
75,000,000 bucks.
So they're they're effectively

699
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,160
paying a royalty upfront
similar.

700
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:10,800
They're just, they're just
breaking down the, the

701
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,240
calculation of how they get to
the number, which, which is,

702
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,920
which is an informative thing.
Like they're, they're, they're

703
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:20,280
kind of giving us the investors
an, an opportunity to understand

704
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,000
what is the value of an in situ
oz near a, near a mill of a

705
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,200
major.
Well, in Anglo's case they're

706
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:30,160
saying it's, you know, 1.875%.
Or less than you thought.

707
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,240
Well, I think, I think based on
your royalty chat, the other

708
00:36:32,240 --> 00:36:35,400
way, it just shows like if
they're paying 75 million based

709
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,080
on that, yeah, imagine paying
75,000,000 for it and having a

710
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,800
1.8% royalty attached to it.
Yeah, like it just shows the

711
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,440
value.
Interesting lens of A.

712
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:49,160
Royalty, yeah, the, the there's
also about 20 million bucks.

713
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,240
That is easy if there's more
answers found, but I'm just

714
00:36:52,240 --> 00:36:54,880
going to kind of write that down
to a very small number because

715
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,000
it's deferred consideration
that, you know, Anglo's in

716
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,920
control of.
So it's it's in the never,

717
00:36:59,920 --> 00:37:03,240
never.
So I'll, I'll kind of put a

718
00:37:03,240 --> 00:37:04,280
picture in here.
Here we have it.

719
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,600
See Sunrise Dam, Matt.
So they're, they're selling the

720
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,120
red tenure there.
They're keeping the blue.

721
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:11,120
So there's a few sort of pits
that that Matt just holding on

722
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,520
to.
They're selling all the red

723
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:14,320
there.
And you can see right there,

724
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,920
it's close proximity to Sunrise,
Sunrise Dam.

725
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,440
That's a lot of ground.
It's a lot of ground and the

726
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:24,120
ground is actually important,
which I'll I'll get to for for

727
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,200
all intents and purposes, you
know, they're getting a fair bit

728
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,040
of regional tenure.
I thought the context on Sunrise

729
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,640
Dam is, is important because you
know, when a, when a major

730
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,480
finally acts on some regional
consolidation, it's why why do

731
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,040
they need the feed or what's
going on here?

732
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:40,920
Sunrise Dam produced 260,000 oz
for Angler Gold last year, which

733
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,000
was 10% of their total
production.

734
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:46,200
They they refer to it as a Tier
2 asset amongst their portfolio

735
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,720
of tier one and two mines.
So, you know, if context drops

736
00:37:48,720 --> 00:37:52,800
at tier one, this is at Tier 2.
And there's a big focus for them

737
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,280
lately has actually just been
lifting the recovery at the

738
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:56,960
mine.
One of the initiatives that

739
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,040
they've pulled the trigger on is
that a concentrated Leech

740
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,640
project late last year that's
going to take them 12 months to

741
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,760
complete.
But again, they're they're

742
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,960
hoping to keep lifting
recoveries, which averaged 85%

743
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,040
in 2024.
They want to get another 3%

744
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,960
uplift from this concentrated
Leech project.

745
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,600
The last thing to keep in mind
is Sunrise Dam.

746
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,120
It's a combination of low grade
open pit and underground ore

747
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,120
feeding a 4.1 million ton per
annum bill there.

748
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,200
I think 1/3 of the ore is coming
from the open pit at 1.25g per

749
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,680
ton and 2/3 is coming from the
underground at 2.5g per ton.

750
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,120
So, you know, if there's
regional oz at at higher grade

751
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,400
than that, you can see how there
could be a, you know, a bit of a

752
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,520
sugar hit for, for Anglo,
especially at healthy gold

753
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,800
prices and.
I think it's got much left

754
00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,080
either Sunrise Dam underground,
from what I hear.

755
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,520
Yeah, I hear gay.
I've heard less than two years.

756
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:50,320
Yeah, they, they still have a
reserve on it of of 1,000,000 oz

757
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,760
and it's been 1,000,000 oz for,
you know, years.

758
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,720
But yeah, yeah, you know, you've
got better contacts for me and

759
00:38:56,080 --> 00:39:00,440
what, what's there but the the.
They're pretty deep at the

760
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,760
moment.
Yeah, I think it's a very

761
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,880
lateral like I think, I don't
know how deep it is, but I know

762
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,600
it's just a rabbit wire, very
lateral.

763
00:39:08,720 --> 00:39:10,160
Gotcha.
There's two ozones they're

764
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,440
pulling from underground ones
carry another one I've forgotten

765
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:17,280
the name of for now, but the.
I won't, I'll, I'll caveat that.

766
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,000
I've heard someone said, oh,
look, it might finish up in two

767
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:21,880
years, but I just said there's
reserves there.

768
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,600
It might be might finish up if
they don't spend more capital to

769
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,320
go to the rest of it.
That's probably a better way to

770
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,000
say it.
Sorry.

771
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,640
They, they, with those
recoveries as well, keep in

772
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,960
mind, so 85% the big focus on
lifting recovery.

773
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,520
So I do wonder if part of this
deal as well is like, can you,

774
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,400
can you get a better blend to
get better recoveries by kind of

775
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,280
mixing and stuff that Max has
got here as well?

776
00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:45,080
Is that part of part of the,
the, the rationale for this

777
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,360
deal?
And, and an interesting thing

778
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,440
that popped up to me when I was
looking at Anglo's reserves.

779
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,120
There's actually, they've got
this nearby satellite deposit,

780
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,200
which is 3G per ton, which Anglo
mostly owns.

781
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,040
It's called butchers.
Well, I've circled it here and

782
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,720
you can see how close it is to,
to Sunrise Dam.

783
00:40:01,720 --> 00:40:03,680
It's just on the other side of
the lake there now.

784
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:07,560
It's a 7030 JV with Northern
Star of all companies And, and

785
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,960
they just picked it up when by
Saracen, it was Saracens back in

786
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,400
the day.
There's, there's not an enormous

787
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,400
resource there like you know,
it's like 320,000 oz at the

788
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,720
moment, but it's higher grade
than the current, you know, all

789
00:40:18,720 --> 00:40:22,080
that they're pulling from the.
From from either the underground

790
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:23,960
or open pit at the moment, but
Butcher's well is all open

791
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,760
pitable.
So I kind of my first thoughts

792
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:30,280
here were that it'd be
interesting to see if this this

793
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,560
option agreement with Matzo is
actually a bit of leverage to

794
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,440
get Northern Star to come to the
party faster with Butcher.

795
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,480
Well, if they were, I don't
know, dragging their feet in the

796
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:42,440
JV, not entirely sure, but I got
some late mail before we started

797
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:46,080
recording that.
Part of the rationale involves

798
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,200
Butcher's well here because the
mats are tenure, which you saw

799
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:53,080
before highlight.
There's a, a, a huge part, part

800
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,120
of that comes with a Causeway
that kind of traverses across

801
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:59,640
the lake.
And for Anglo to get a new

802
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:03,240
Causeway approved across the
lake, it it, it, it need a

803
00:41:03,240 --> 00:41:05,880
federal approval process and it
just would take them forever.

804
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:08,400
They'd never be able to do it.
So a huge part of the value of

805
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,720
this, this fair for Anglo is
actually just, you know, getting

806
00:41:11,720 --> 00:41:15,680
the ability to to utilise the
Causeway that is part of that's

807
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,520
his, that's his tenure here.
It kind of unlocks that Butcher

808
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:22,240
Well deposit, which they can
actively feed into Sunrise Dam,

809
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,680
you know?
Maybe Petronas are going to

810
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,520
disrupt the deal.
It's still got the.

811
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:29,640
You're in favour.
Still got the on market

812
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:32,320
takeover?
Yeah, well, doesn't that look

813
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,160
suspicious in hindsight?
Hasn't.

814
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:35,600
Hasn't sold a share or don't
they?

815
00:41:35,720 --> 00:41:39,960
Yeah, no, especially when Max's
stock is up like 40% at one

816
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:43,680
point today.
All of this is just like kind

817
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,000
of, you know, contextual.
But I think the theme, the theme

818
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,080
is important because the
dominant theme of the last six

819
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:51,520
years in WA gold has has been of
these major international gold

820
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,280
miners.
We've done fuck all except

821
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:57,120
leave.
Late last year we saw Gold

822
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,040
Fields actually try to acquire
Corolla, but they weren't

823
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,440
successful.
That was revealed in the

824
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,920
information circular.
And now Anglo has made a move

825
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:08,080
for a satellite deposit.
I'm hopeful that these, you

826
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,560
know, international major gold
miners will will be a bit more

827
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,640
receptive to deal activity and
and and and look proactively to

828
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,960
to do do deals to feed their,
you know, maybe hungry meals or

829
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,800
displace and lower grade sort of
all with higher grade stuff

830
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,000
nearby, because that's that's
really healthy for the junior

831
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,520
gold market.
And yeah, it just makes the

832
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,440
investment rationale for for
juniors that have a higher grade

833
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,840
ounces in close proximity to
meals a lot more a lot better if

834
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,200
you're actually seeing the deal
activity that's substantiate

835
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:37,960
corporate outcome.
Buddy, imagine, imagine if

836
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:41,080
either of those two companies
got active on M&A in Australia

837
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,320
in the mid cap space.
Jeez, that'd be exciting.

838
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,640
Yeah, Gold fields take it over
the Murchison.

839
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,360
I can say it just take them all.
Oh, I.

840
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,960
Wouldn't hold my breath, but
we'll see it's.

841
00:42:56,040 --> 00:43:02,480
Recorded right, buddy?
Hold your breath in.

842
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,840
And there's no I got nothing.
Get your tickets.

843
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,600
Get your tickets.
Hold hold your breath to an

844
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,960
underground operator's
conference. 100 bucks off.

845
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,960
Don't sleep on that one.
But you're like getting paid to

846
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:15,120
hold your breath pretty much.
And our other great partners

847
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:17,280
that keep the lights on.
Mineral mining services,

848
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:22,080
grounded, Sambit ground sport,
CRE insurance, K drill, selfish

849
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,400
contracting, Quattro project
engineering, swig.

850
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:28,560
See how I mixed them up there?
Just keeping everyone guessing.

851
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:33,600
Cross Boundary Energy and Urdu
Money Monitor information

852
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:36,080
contained in this episode of
Money of Mine is of general

853
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,400
nature only and does not take
into account the objectives,

854
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,760
financial situation or needs of
any particular person.

855
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:45,080
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

856
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,160
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

857
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,840
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.