Will a bidding war begin on this copper junior?

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JD, are we about to see a
bidding war for this copper

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junior?
There could be some alpha in

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this episode mate.
Maybe, maybe not.

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Because Xanadu has received a
bid from Bastion and it seems

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cleverly structured to elicit a
counter bid from Zijin at a

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higher price and fast.
I'm keen to explore that with

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you today mate.
Plus why we think Regis won't

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buy Ravenswood Asterisk mostly
depends on price.

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To kick things off mate.
We've had a really interesting

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few days reading all of the
emails that have come our way.

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I haven't replied to them all
yet, but I know that you have

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and.
I can't say they have yet.

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So thanks a bunch of the people
that reached out.

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We added phenomenal feedback and
we thought we'd we thought we'd

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run through a couple of the best
replies, the things that made us

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laugh a little bit.
There was some some wicked

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responses, some great ideas of
what we can think about going

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forward and a few great one
liners in there.

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So let's let's just bounce off
each other this.

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Is this is the one liners that
you've you've cut out here,

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you've ignored all of the
feedback, but you've just

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concluded the one liners, the
zingers from the money miners.

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Massive appreciation for sending
through your thoughts and

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comments.
It means a lot to know that that

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yeah, the the listeners you guys
are still invested in in the

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future of of of money of mine.
And that certainly came across

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in those emails.
But I'm I'm intrigued in these,

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these one liners, mate, what
have we got?

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All right.
Here we go.

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I'll start us off so talking
about our Abbott dour Thursday

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episode.
Mate.

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Saw your episode today.
It was like watching 2 guys

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whose 20 year old dog had just
died.

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Pretty grim stuff.
Oh, I got one for you.

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If Black Sabbath can break up
and reunite, maybe you guys will

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too.
Someday, who knows?

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Who knows?
I saw the same actually about

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wasn't wasn't about Black
Sabbath.

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Maybe.
Maybe you've.

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Got it.
Might be coming.

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It might be coming.
Hold your breath.

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All right, so to give you
context on how big a fan I am, I

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was listening to your episode on
the worst mining deals so

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intently in my car that I missed
my turn off by 25 kilometers.

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Didn't realize for 25 guys.
You might need to use your phone

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or your sat NAV for that, but we
are thrilled that we could be so

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engaging in a podcast.
Unreal.

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All right, go on for you mate.
I was keen to hear more on the

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battlefield, Lenora and the
activist interview about

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Abyssinian medals and they got
completely pulled.

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I listened to it twice before it
vanished.

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I still remember driving down
the street in Vancouver nearly

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having a car accident because I
was so locked in.

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Maybe one day we'll bring that
one back.

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I don't know, JD.
Actually, no, it's deleted

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forever unfortunately.
It's out of our hands, but maybe

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we can tell a story one day.
Last but not least, money

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miners.
Imagine how much ACDC would have

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wanted to quit when Bond Scott
died and yet they came back even

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better with the new guy.
It's fantastic.

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I never thought we would get
mentioned or compared to a CDCI.

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Didn't think those sort of words
went in the same sentence mate.

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But lo and behold, lo and
behold, us and ACDC being

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compared.
Thanks a lot to all the money

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miners for getting in touch with
us, sharing your feedback.

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We haven't got back to all of it
because it's been a complete

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mountain, but we will get there.
Every day I say I'll be happy if

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I end my day with like, no, no
emails sending in my inbox.

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And it just gets bigger.
But we'll get there, mate.

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We'll get there.
Those messages from the money

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miners, they've brought in the
mood here and they've, they've

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given me some energy, which I
didn't, I didn't think it was

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possible to get that energy in,
in this period of time, JD.

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But it's it's very relevant
because I've actually prepared a

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quiz for you today.
Have you?

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I have mate, no pressure, but
your reputation's on the line.

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Are you ready?
Question one who's building

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state-of-the-art hybrid power
stations for enormous mine sites

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all over the world?
Cross boundary energy is the

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only name that comes.
Correct question two.

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Who actually owns and operates
them so the mining company

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doesn't have to lift a finger.
Steel cross boundary.

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He's on fire.
Final question, who's helping

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mines cut diesel, cut costs and
cut emissions, all without

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CapEx?
That's an easy one mate.

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Cross boundary energy.
Clean sweep mate, want to know

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what you win?
Hopefully their phone number

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mate.
If you're if you're running or

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building a mine and want lower
energy deals without building

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your own bloody power plant,
talk to Tim Taylor across

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Boundary Energy.
That's the answer every time.

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Phone number and show notes.
Go cross boundary energy.

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All right, mate.
Xanadu copped a beer.

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I think up front.
We've got to do a Ding, Ding,

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Ding Jada, you and I have been
shareholders for best past six

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months, I want to say in this
stock so.

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Something about that since
better.

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To disclose that up front.
Yeah, we, we spoke about this

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one about 6 odd months ago and
it intrigued us so much, so much

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that a little while after that
we decided to, to pick up some

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shares.
So yes, we're talking our own

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book, but we think it's super
relevant for the money miners

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and it is a fascinating story.
We're going to try answer the

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question, will there be a
bidding war at Xanadu?

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It's currently trading above bid
price, which we'll get into and

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there are some some juicy
details to this one mate.

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What's, what's the one-on-one?
You know, fast, fast background

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on what's going on here, mate.
All right.

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In in a nutshell, Xanadu holds a
stake in a huge undeveloped

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copper gold project in Mongolia.
The asset is called Karmagtai.

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Now the CapEx is close to US 900
million.

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That's the important detail to
know because that has always

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been the impediment for Xanadu
to develop this asset.

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Now they have had a bit of a
relationship forming with Siege

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in over time.
Xanadu owns about 38% of this

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big project with our great
friends in China, Z Gin.

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So everyone long suspected Z Gin
of being the ultimate owners of

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this one, and the company have
made no secret that they've

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tried to get a deal done to that
end in recent times.

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And effectively over the the
course of history, there's a few

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different deal structure
options.

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It's all coalesced in, in what
was briefly an exclusivity

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period for Z Gin last month.
That exclusivity actually

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lapsed.
And then, you know, we, we, we

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kind of woke up, was it
yesterday And Xanadu copped an 8

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cent bead not from ZZ in very
interestingly.

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Yeah, fascinating.
So the the bead itself, we're

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just churning away, sitting in
the office here drumming up

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content for the Director Special
newsletter.

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It's early.
Sign up if you're not already,

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by the way, get.
On in the show notes and then we

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see it recommended 8 cent cash
offer.

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Now, like you mentioned that
we'd long been suspecting a bid,

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but we were a bit surprised in
the form that it took.

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So like I said, Colin Moore head
the CEO of the company and the

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whole company have been working
pretty hard.

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They've had webinars, they've
had calls they've mentioned in

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countless presentations over
recent months.

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Now Z Gen. was the glaringly
obvious partner to this.

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So long behold, we crank open
this announcement that we see

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and Xanadu and Bastian have
entered into a agreement.

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My first thoughts mate, Who the
hell are Bastian?

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Second thoughts, which I thought
right after that.

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You bloody beauty.
We could be on for some

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competition here mate.
I think we got lucky to be

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honest with you, mate, because
like, no, we've talked about

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this before, but no one ever
makes real money trying to

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predict an M and a corporate
transaction.

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And we're like reading the tea
leaves a bit.

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Thinking was pretty, everything
was transparent.

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It was like, yeah, these are all
the dates.

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These are the options.
We're like, it just makes sense

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for the agent to buy this.
So we that's.

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The thing there was a timeline
on, Yeah.

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And that was the the only reason
in what you, yeah, can otherwise

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describe as a pretty fruitless
strategy, at least for a punter.

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Totally and there was it was a
non controlling or became

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effectively like non controlling
interest.

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So we sort of you often get
screwed over in those

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situations.
And we, we also thought, I don't

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know if there's actually any
like credible other party

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bidding here or, or, or putting
forward a credible funding

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option.
So when we saw it was Bastion,

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well, like, yes, there's there's
someone else here.

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This is, this is interesting.
But yeah, I I was stoked to say

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that.
Yeah, absolutely, mate.

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So clearly we've got to unpack a
few more details in what came

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out.
So cash offer for $0.08.

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Now there is quite a bit more
meat on the bone here.

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You've got Xanadu, the directors
in the company recommending

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shareholders accept this.
Then you've got Bastian, which

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is a consortium of a couple
parties, excuse me, subscribing

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for shares at six cents.
Now 8 cents bid, six cents is

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what they're subscribing for
shares at.

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And it's not just a completely
paltry amount, $17 million

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worth.
Now, as I mentioned, a

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consortium that is made-up of
this group called Peru, which is

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Singapore based, and Xanadu
director by the name of Ganbaya.

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Now, Ganbaya is a very important
character in this whole

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narrative because he also owns
what is a 13.5% stake in the

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project.
Very, very important detail back

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to the placement.
So there's a catch to that.

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And what you start to uncover as
you read more about this deal,

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right, is that they're doing
everything they can to prompt

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Zijin to get the work, to get to
work.

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And Zijin have been dragging
their feet as we just described.

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Siegen have for the longest
period thought they're the only

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natural buyers.
They already own a big stake in

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this.
It's Mongolia has sort of

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attributes that make it more
appealing to a Chinese buyer,

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all these sorts of things.
Now, I think the market as well

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as us thought best case Siegen
come in and, you know, we'd

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kicked about this idea about
maybe a month ago.

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Eight cents, maybe 88 and a half
cents if we're lucky.

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But we'll see what sort of
happens.

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00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:03,640
We didn't really think there was
a.

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00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:05,880
Logical Plan B what's your Plan
B?

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00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:06,960
Yeah.
We actually thought that Plan B

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00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:10,600
was the put option and thought,
OK, if worst case scenarios, 25%

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00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:13,600
carried interest, whatever, like
that's, that's, that's like can

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00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,720
live with that feels like a
downside somewhat, you know,

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00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:19,120
protected, Yeah, but didn't,
didn't think there was a

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00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,120
credible Plan B of another,
another party.

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00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:24,000
But it is interesting, right?
The way it's kind of zigging was

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00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:28,600
had exclusivity because they had
tended an NBIO, which the board

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00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:33,480
of Xanadu deemed to be a, a a
superior proposal to what the,

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00:09:33,680 --> 00:09:36,880
you know, the alternative was
going to be the the 25% put

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00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,800
option would have been
shareholders were asked to to go

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00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:41,240
to go and go and vote, vote on
that.

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00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,720
But instead they deferred that
let gave gave CGN exclusivity.

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00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,200
And clearly whatever number CGN
put it put on the table in that

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00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:51,920
NBIO, they backed out of it.
And I think they were just kind

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00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,560
of who knows, right?
But it's, it's, it's, it's

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00:09:54,560 --> 00:09:57,080
potential that they just played
hardball, realised they've got

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00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:58,440
all the power in the negotiating
position.

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00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:00,240
They're exclusive to your
lapses.

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00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,680
Then all of a sudden that was
actually the, the, the Plan B we

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00:10:03,680 --> 00:10:05,800
didn't know about all along
comes the party.

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00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,160
And there's real pressure on
Zijin here because of that

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00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:09,520
placement.
Like you talked about that

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00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,280
placement of 70 million bucks at
six cents.

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00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,200
Now Ziji's got to make their
mind up.

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00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,040
Do they, do they, do they want
more ownership at, at, at a, at

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00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:19,600
a price that's, you know,
reasonable or do they not?

225
00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,000
And if they, they do, they're
going to have to pay north of

226
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,880
north of the $0.08, which means
that on that 70 million bucks of

227
00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:28,280
cash that's going to be put into
the pro forma, they might be

228
00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,000
having to pay like 25,000,000
bucks for that in terms of, you

229
00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:34,520
know, what they actually pay.
So their incentive to put

230
00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:38,160
forward a more compelling bid is
only up in like is they let's

231
00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,600
say you know, at least 7,000,000
bucks if they submit that offer

232
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,080
before the 26th of May, which is
only 6 days away.

233
00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:48,240
If they submit an offer before
then, then and and it seemed to

234
00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:53,080
be a superior proposal and the
the board recommends it and

235
00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,920
Bastian doesn't exercise their
matching right, then all of a

236
00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,720
sudden CGM will save 7,000,000
bucks.

237
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,120
That's a decent enough incentive
for them to come to the party.

238
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,400
Hence why we're kind of yeah,
really interested in in how the

239
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,200
next six days plays out.
Now, I don't think we have like

240
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,360
stars in our eyes about what
what value can be really

241
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,480
attained here because everything
about this doesn't look like

242
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,080
Bastian wants to enter a bidding
war.

243
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,920
It just looks to me like Bastian
wants XI Jin to pay a fair bit

244
00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,400
more than they, you know,
currently being willing to.

245
00:11:20,560 --> 00:11:23,520
And that's where the other part
of the ownership that Ganbaya,

246
00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,480
that director comes into play
because there is potential if

247
00:11:27,560 --> 00:11:33,320
Xanadu goes into another party's
hands, IE Ganbaya, that when you

248
00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:37,000
take into account his ownership
interest in the project outside

249
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,280
of this sort of joint venture
between XI Jin and Xanadu, that

250
00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:45,800
he would have a bigger stake.
He and his, you know, partners

251
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,640
in the in the consortium would
have a bigger stake than Seijin

252
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:51,600
and that is a key, key detail
here.

253
00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,240
Totally, there's a lot more
negotiating leverage that is is

254
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,120
concentrated with Gumbaya in
that case.

255
00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,920
And if Seijin really wanted to
consolidate the, you know, full

256
00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,400
ownership of the project laid
down the track or or at least as

257
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,960
much as they can without
government, then then Gumbaya

258
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,000
holds a lot more power and cards
in all of that.

259
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,440
And, and right now what, what,
what could they feasibly get get

260
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:19,360
away with paying well at 8.3
cents, That's where Bastion kind

261
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:22,600
of starts to, to, to actually
make money otherwise.

262
00:12:23,680 --> 00:12:26,920
So I think any, any offer from
Zegen that like, that's the

263
00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,360
absolute sort of starting point.
But depending on the leverage

264
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,280
that can be, you know, held
between Gabby are because what

265
00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,520
Zegen wouldn't want to do is
let, let let Bastion, you know,

266
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,400
acquire this stake in, in the,
in the project by acquiring

267
00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,080
Xanadu.
And then all of a sudden you

268
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,320
have to pay like 15 cents
instead of $0.10 equivalent for

269
00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:46,480
the entire thing.
So.

270
00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:49,400
And what what you're sort of
describing there is the, the

271
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,320
optionality at play here for
shareholders who would go onto

272
00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,040
the market and pick up these
shares, right?

273
00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,920
So after the deal got announced
yesterday, we start seeing it

274
00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,760
trade in the high sevens, you
know, below the the bid.

275
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:05,920
But people aren't paying upfront
over expecting anything to come

276
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:07,360
through.
And then that changes today.

277
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,520
Clearly some people have
cottoned on to say, hey, we have

278
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,280
sort of solid footing at 8
cents.

279
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:16,520
Yeah, but but we might get 8 and
half, we might get 9.

280
00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,600
Whatever we we can, you know,
weigh those probabilities

281
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:21,240
against each other.
Whatever you might think it is,

282
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,720
it's pretty hard to pick into
the mind of what Z gin Yeah, but

283
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,480
you've got your downside in the
sense protected and that's the,

284
00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,000
that's the base you've got.
That's the that's the downside.

285
00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,240
You're not losing an awful lot
of money if you can pick them up

286
00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:35,880
like some shareholders were
yesterday at 7.67.7.

287
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:37,360
Awesome.
Your beauty, right?

288
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:38,680
Totally.
Yeah, totally.

289
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,920
Yeah, it, it doesn't look like
there's too much risk of of deal

290
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,120
failure in the sense of invest
in not getting 50.1 acceptances,

291
00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,040
I think becomes unconditional at
that point.

292
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,080
So I do think deal risk is
actually pretty low here on the

293
00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:56,240
balance of probabilities.
The the asymmetry is skewed dish

294
00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:58,440
to the upside.
However, I wouldn't get carried

295
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,080
away with like a bidding war.
I think there's like, you know,

296
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:01,960
one more bid.
Is it $0.09?

297
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:02,880
Is it $0.10?
I don't know.

298
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,240
I don't know what gets the deal
done, but I I'm, I'm hopeful as

299
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,840
a shareholder.
I'm still still yes haven't

300
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,560
haven't sold my stake.
Yeah, exactly.

301
00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:12,960
I mean credit to the to the team
at Xanadu, they they managed to

302
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,080
drum up interest where most
people thought there there

303
00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,200
wasn't an awful lot of interest.
So I came to see how it kind of

304
00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:21,680
plays out from here.
But it's a it's an interesting

305
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,000
one.
Your, your talking point on how

306
00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,720
solid is the, the deal is an
interesting one because shortly

307
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,280
after we realized it wasn't CGN
and it was someone else who were

308
00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,640
like, well, clearly they're
trying to prompt CGN to come in.

309
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,120
So like, is this someone that's
just come in randomly trying to

310
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:38,440
product?
Like, are they solid?

311
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:39,840
You know, do they have a bit on
them?

312
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:43,200
And yeah, long behold, they do.
So that's the relief, Yeah, I

313
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,320
think we got lucky, JD, but.
I think we got more than lucky

314
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:47,840
mate count now.
Lucky stars.

315
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:50,600
Awesome, that was really
interesting mate.

316
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,440
So now JD, the the Billion
Dollar Man, Mr. Derek heard of

317
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,800
Sandvik ground support.
He sat down with us last week

318
00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,920
and he told us boatloads about
ground support.

319
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,240
We're pumped to to share a bunch
of these kind of one minute

320
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,520
snippets from the combo that we
had with the Billion Dollar Man

321
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:07,680
over the coming weeks, starting
with this, how has ground

322
00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,680
support changed over like the
the last 20 years for example?

323
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,680
Some people might say not much
at the end of the day because it

324
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,680
looks like a a steel bolt or a
splitty or a friction bolt.

325
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,400
Depends if you know what you
call it sort of thing.

326
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,360
But they've been around forever
and a day because they're a good

327
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,240
product at the end of the day
and they they do their job.

328
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:32,440
But there's been a lot of
evolution on sort of the dynamic

329
00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,480
capability of products, you
know, that can hold more

330
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,920
capacity, more energy.
Again, as these conditions

331
00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:41,800
become more challenging, you
know, there's more requirements

332
00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,240
for, you know, higher capacity
products at the end of the day.

333
00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,200
The other thing that that's
probably changed over the years

334
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:52,120
is the, the frequency of use
probably ground support probably

335
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:54,880
was a almost an afterthought,
you know, 20-30 years ago.

336
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,240
Now it's a critical as part of
the development cycle, you know,

337
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,480
to provide again, provide that
safe working environment.

338
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,760
Thank you, Derek, Kurt and
Sandvik Ground support.

339
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,240
Thanks Wiser, you know he was
in, he started his career in

340
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:07,520
R&D.
That's why he cares so much

341
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:08,520
about how things have changed
over.

342
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,200
Time I did.
It was a pleasure to learn a lot

343
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:11,160
from Derek.
Thank you.

344
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:17,400
And to round out JD, we actually
had a chinwag about Ravenswood.

345
00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,760
We've recorded it the same days
we did our Lion Town episode,

346
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,440
but because we chose to include
that kind of post episode RIP,

347
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,840
we just wanted to make the
podcast a realistic time to

348
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,360
consume.
And we've reserved it to to

349
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:31,360
Chuck.
And today it's still just as

350
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,240
relevant.
Nothing has changed since, but

351
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,480
we're going to have a good yarn
about why Regis isn't going to

352
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,160
buy Ravenswood.
No less relevant.

353
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,840
Here we go.
Who's going to buy Ravenswood?

354
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,920
Well, this is, this has been
like one of the more advertised

355
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,520
sales processors out there,
especially in the data room

356
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:47,520
column.
There's not much going on on

357
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,280
sales price fronts.
So you got to, you got to write

358
00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,880
articles about something.
And Ravenswood, Ravenswood's

359
00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:53,840
gotten a fair bit of attention,
but Ravenswood gold mine in

360
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,200
Queensland, it produces about
200,000 ounces of gold annually.

361
00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:01,360
It's on the market and, and all
of the, the articles, they kind

362
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,079
of advertise this gold mine as
A2, a $2 billion price tag

363
00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:07,040
grant.
Now this, this mine is jointly

364
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:12,599
owned by EMR Capital and Golden
Energy and Resources, which is

365
00:17:12,599 --> 00:17:16,280
called Gear often when it's
referred to EMR Capital, they're

366
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,200
obviously private equity firm.
You've spoken with Owen on the

367
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,839
podcast in the past, JD and then
you've got Gear now that is a

368
00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,000
majority owned by Indonesia's
Bujaya family.

369
00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:30,920
They, they do a lot in coal and
see them kind of with Latimore's

370
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,800
and and Stanmore and all those
sorts of things.

371
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:38,080
So anyway, EMR and Gear acquired
Ravenswood in 2020.

372
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,000
The up to 300 million bucks was
the price tag, 100 million of

373
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,760
that was was upfront and 300 and
the remaining 200 million was

374
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,120
kind of contingent.
That's largely all all paid or

375
00:17:49,120 --> 00:17:52,440
payable.
Since then they've invested a

376
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,040
fair bit into Ravens.
What a lot of capital is going

377
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:58,680
in here.
They've reportedly extended the

378
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,280
mines life by 15 years to 2022.
I say reportedly because there's

379
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,840
a few asterisks to that
extension, which I will get to

380
00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,760
this is a a sale process that
has been publicly advertised

381
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,600
since November last year.
That was six months ago.

382
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,680
That's that's like quite a long
time to be banging on about our

383
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,400
sales process with lots of
articles in data room.

384
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,920
And over that time, we've
watched the bidding pool narrow

385
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,520
down in all of the columns to
now it's just two bidders left

386
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:25,480
early days.
There were tons of potential

387
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:26,920
bidders like named in these
articles.

388
00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:28,760
Everyone was saying Capricorn,
Gold, Rd.

389
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:30,440
Remelius, Evolution, dot, like
you name it.

390
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:32,920
Every every mid tier was always
kind of like reference with a

391
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,920
bunch of Chinese, a bunch of
Indonesian capital, all that

392
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,960
sort of stuff.
And now we've got just two names

393
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,240
and final bids are due next
week.

394
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,880
The only two contenders
apparently left ASX listed Regis

395
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,040
Resources and Indonesia's United
Tractors.

396
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,520
A good set name.
It's funny.

397
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,120
United Tractors.
Yeah.

398
00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,240
I want to talk about some of the
maybe not so obvious elements to

399
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,480
to this sale process if you're
interested in reading kind of

400
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,360
past the press.
Spell them out mate.

401
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:06,720
What are?
What are the details you can to

402
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,240
discuss?
Firstly, this is, this is a sale

403
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:14,320
process from private equity and
you know my golden rule when it

404
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,680
comes to sales processes from
private equity.

405
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,280
JD.
Never forget mate, never buy the

406
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,840
bags of PE.
Never buy private equity bags.

407
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:27,440
Like I, yeah, I just, we private
equity is remarkably good at

408
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,640
dressing things up a lot better
than they are.

409
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,600
And because they're auctions,
like they're often, you know,

410
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:34,960
competitive.
There's a lot of like those

411
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,600
dynamics where you dress
something up to be really,

412
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,640
really good and then maybe in
the long run, it might actually

413
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,160
turn out to not be as good.
And because it was an auction or

414
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:43,760
a sales process, it's
competitive.

415
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:45,200
Everyone really, really wants
it.

416
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,000
And maybe a couple of people
need it and they bid and they

417
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,680
aren't bid.
And it's private equity guys.

418
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,880
They're pretty damn good at kind
of harnessing the competitive

419
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,440
attention and, and often you
don't quite realize, you know,

420
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,320
what you might have truly bought
until a year or so later.

421
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,680
And then the reality is, you
know, some of the policies have

422
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,840
washed off a little bit, But
that's a generalization.

423
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,920
It's not to say you can't make
money buying off private equity.

424
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,920
And plenty of people will point
to plenty of examples where

425
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,320
people have made lots of money
buying off private equity.

426
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,720
But in general, that's like a, a
blanket kind of, you know,

427
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,200
heuristic.
I I roll with.

428
00:20:16,360 --> 00:20:19,920
To to to go specific now on on
Ravenswood, spell out some of

429
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,480
the the key risks as you kind of
see.

430
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:26,280
Them well, well, even even a
step before that, the

431
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:27,800
generalization is it's going to
be competitive.

432
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,120
This is different.
This isn't competitive.

433
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:35,880
You've got 2 two parties left in
a sales process submitting final

434
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,480
bids.
Like that's kind of crazy to me.

435
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,560
So in in general, the
competitive nature might lead

436
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,360
people to overpaying for
something that is not going to

437
00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:43,680
turn out to be as good as you
think it is.

438
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:45,880
This one, it might not have the
same competitive tension.

439
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,160
So I.
And even even 2 might not be

440
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,240
what it might first appear to
people on the outside.

441
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,440
One could just be hanging in to
the end with a with a lowball as

442
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,000
well.
So it's not as if you've got 2

443
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,320
eager buyers.
But I think there could be none

444
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,680
like, but yeah, absolutely,
that's a real potential.

445
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,160
So the other point too is
there's some critical risks that

446
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,720
you you kind of need to accept
as a bidder in this sale

447
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,800
process.
What's being, you know, talked

448
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,040
about or what what's kind of
come out in the price in the

449
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,280
duration of the sale process?
Why there are only two it is

450
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,680
left.
Well, there's a very substantial

451
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,080
out of the money hedge book in
place here.

452
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,600
Bidders, whoever buys Ravenswood
has to assume that hedge book or

453
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,120
maybe they could alternatively
stump up their own funding to to

454
00:21:28,120 --> 00:21:29,960
close it out, restructure it,
whatever.

455
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:35,160
I, I haven't been able to get
the exact number out of anyone

456
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,600
of what the true value of this
out of the money hedge book is.

457
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:42,040
But I think it is enormous.
Like my, my intuition, the kind

458
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,800
of range that I've I've been
told or guided towards this is

459
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,920
very, very substantial.
Like north of, you know, 5

460
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,920
hundred 607 hundred $800 million
sort of substantial.

461
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,680
To the huge detriment of the the
current owners, right?

462
00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,680
Totally.
That's a that's, that's a pretty

463
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,120
chunky.
Yeah, it's pretty chunky, part

464
00:22:02,120 --> 00:22:03,720
of the capital structure, right
And.

465
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,160
You touched on earlier the the
life extension component and

466
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,040
this sort of off reported 15
years that they have sort of

467
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,760
worked on.
What are you thinking on that?

468
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,440
This, this, I don't think a 15
year mine life extension is as

469
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,560
certain as it might imagine.
This kind of comes into the part

470
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,520
where private equity could have
kind of, yeah, making things

471
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:24,480
look better than they, they
actually might be.

472
00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:27,880
So there's in that within that
mine plan, there's new ore

473
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,720
bodies that kind of rely on
untested or sorting.

474
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,120
All of all of that has risk,
right?

475
00:22:33,120 --> 00:22:36,880
If you, if you're taking on kind
of new technological or applying

476
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:38,800
technology to untested already,
all those sorts of things,

477
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,800
there's, there's risk there.
And another, another kind of,

478
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,440
you know, part of this sale
process too is do you remember

479
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,480
when, when Newmont was selling
Telfer, that sale process was

480
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:51,000
sort of plagued by a, a leak in
one of the, the TSFS they had

481
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,080
there.
There's a bit of deja vu here.

482
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:57,080
One of one of the TSFS here is
yeah, there's, there's, there's

483
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:02,320
a, you know, I don't think it's,
you know, terminable kind of

484
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,920
leak, but there is, there is an
issue here, yeah, the tailing

485
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,080
storage facilities here.
But my, you know, my, my broader

486
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,440
point is this is a week before
final bids and there's, there's

487
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,760
two parties supposedly
submitting a binding offer in

488
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:16,920
the midst of a gold bull market.
That's that kind of speaks

489
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:23,720
volumes to like issues that the
bidding bidders have had A, with

490
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,640
the asset quality and B,
reconciling asset quality with

491
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,720
the valuation expectations of
the vendors, like $2 billion to

492
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:32,960
accept a lot of risk and edge
book and all that sort of stuff

493
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,520
doesn't compute.
Hence 2 bidders left.

494
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,880
So let's talk about how it, how
it plays out, how it plays out

495
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:43,480
in reality then.
I think so.

496
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,800
So you're not attractors and
Regis left, right in this

497
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,920
apparently you're not
attractors.

498
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,880
He's an Indonesian group.
One of the vendors of this is is

499
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,480
Gear Indonesia links, you know,
EMR notorious kind of like

500
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,720
Hegity has kind of connections
to yeah, Indonesian capital, all

501
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,160
those sorts of things.
So I don't, I kind of interpret

502
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,280
United Attractors interest as
that questionable in and of

503
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,440
itself.
I'm not, I'm not convinced that

504
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,520
United Attractors is a, is a
genuine kind of credible bidder

505
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,280
purely because I'm like, is this
like, is it a, is it a favour to

506
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,480
look like a A?
Competitor.

507
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,720
It's a big question, but.
But yeah, I'm I'm told that

508
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,880
maybe they are kind of serious
and they're, but that they might

509
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,560
not be serious anywhere near the
value expectations of the actual

510
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,760
vendor.
So you're not attracted in and

511
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,280
of itself.
I'm like unsure of even even

512
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,440
like assume you're not attracted
is a serious bidder.

513
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,160
And they might actually like
have, you know, a value, a value

514
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,640
that is unpalatable.
I'm not even sure they'd get fib

515
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,680
approval.
And I know that's kind of maybe

516
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,480
a bit questionable or absurd
because because this isn't

517
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:55,080
Indonesian capital as opposed to
Chinese capital, but there's

518
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,880
definitely overlap like the
Chinese ethnic Indonesian

519
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,000
capital is.
I don't know, I don't know how

520
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,440
like down the track you want to
get, but but Ravenswood is a

521
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,320
stone's throw away from
Townsville military base.

522
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,320
That's a pretty kind of critical
area.

523
00:25:09,120 --> 00:25:11,760
Ferb might be a lot more
interested than they otherwise

524
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,400
would, given proximity to a
pretty cool, pretty critical

525
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:15,200
military base.
So.

526
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,680
Anyone who's had mates in the
army, they've they've swung

527
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:18,760
through Townsville at some
point.

528
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,360
Yeah, yeah.
I don't think it's impossible.

529
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:26,800
I'm here obviously like was able
to buy this times are different

530
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,640
in 2020 as well.
But I just think like it's not,

531
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,680
it's not a home run furb outcome
in my mind.

532
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:34,920
I think there's I think there's
like there's risk there.

533
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,880
And as vendors you've got to
kind of question, well, how much

534
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:40,680
conditionality am I willing to
accept?

535
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,520
You accept more conditionality
when it's not very competitive

536
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,120
And then Regis, right?
Do we actually think Regis is

537
00:25:48,120 --> 00:25:52,080
going to buy this?
I don't, I'm not convinced, I'm

538
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:53,800
not convinced.
And I like, I'm certainly not

539
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,640
convinced that they're there at
any anywhere near the value

540
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,200
expectations that the vendors
have.

541
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:00,640
That that's the, that's the
point, right?

542
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:04,160
Because I think yeah, they would
pick it up if they could do it

543
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,240
completely on the price that
they want.

544
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,000
But is that anywhere near what
EMR are expecting?

545
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,400
If you're, if you're already
assuming a call it close to a

546
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:21,680
billion dollar like out of the
money hedge book, it's, it's it

547
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,360
that, that's, it's, it's, it can
be a stretch here when there's

548
00:26:25,360 --> 00:26:28,480
technical risk as well.
And even in Regis's case, who

549
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,320
are clearly keen to buy
something, I mean, that's no, no

550
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,480
doubt.
And they're making tremendous

551
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,200
cash at the moment, but they're
obviously looking to add growth,

552
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,640
improve their portfolio.
Whether Ravenswood actually does

553
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,280
that, I don't know.
And and Regis doesn't have the

554
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,280
same license for M&A in the same
way that a lot of other mid

555
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,720
tiers do because the last goal
of it was buying its stake in

556
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,960
Tropicana, which was really
poorly received by the market

557
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,560
for for a good period of time.
Their big consensus was that

558
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,720
they overpaid.
Now they've like built up a bit

559
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,840
more trust gold prices run that
you know improved their hedge

560
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:02,560
book.
Tropicana is clearly the best

561
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,960
part of their portfolio now, but
they have the same license for

562
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:08,280
M&A.
It's interesting what a few

563
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,160
years did into that deal and
they solid run in the in the

564
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,360
gold price.
But you know, license to do a

565
00:27:15,360 --> 00:27:19,440
deal as as you sort of frame it
is clearly more limited at

566
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,520
outrageous than it is at other
companies all the while they're

567
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,040
growing their cash bar.
They, they and they have to

568
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,800
benchmark this opportunity next
to like the other opportunities

569
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:31,200
which are clearly in the market
at the same time.

570
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,880
And on that point there, there
are like 2 like very present

571
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,640
real ways that they could
allocate their, their capital or

572
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,720
seek growth.
And both of them are far more in

573
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,320
their like their home court.
I'm talking about Bellevue who

574
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,000
was like publicly declared that
they're running a strategic

575
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,760
review.
Like we're pretty sure that

576
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:51,960
they're like showing signs of
being serious about that.

577
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,280
There's the data room.
To the best of our knowledge, a

578
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:57,440
bunch of, you know, companies
mid tiers have been invited into

579
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,240
that data room.
I don't know like details about

580
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,200
timing or everything like that,
but there's a, there's a proper

581
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,600
process that underway there for,
for Bellevue to maximize

582
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,280
shareholder value, which
certainly involves exploring

583
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,680
kind of best, best value M&A on
its cards, which it's very

584
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,640
possible Regis could be a
serious contender in that.

585
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,960
And the other one is, we've
talked about it a few times,

586
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:23,320
Focus Minerals is, is actively
selling their Laverton, all of

587
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,640
their like, yeah, tenure in the
Laverton, which there's a lot of

588
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:30,000
gold there that focus of kind of
land grabbed for many years and

589
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,760
not done very much with.
But there's, there's a there's

590
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,640
there's a lot of answers there,
the quality and how long it will

591
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:38,000
take and all that sort of stuff.
All of that's to be proven out,

592
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,080
but.
Much more under the radar given,

593
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,480
you know, Chinese ownership and.
Totally.

594
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:45,880
Or or the sort of questions
around that, but.

595
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,840
In the right part of the world
though, and there's a lot of,

596
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,280
yeah, a lot of players in that
labour and region, even Regis

597
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:51,880
themselves have will have
synergies.

598
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,760
But there's yeah, there's you
know, possibly like 4 million

599
00:28:54,760 --> 00:29:00,000
ounces of mineral resource that
can be acquired there for like,

600
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,080
you know, in the hundreds of
millions of dollars.

601
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:07,360
But a reasonable number that
that like what would the market

602
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,480
prefer to see Regis do?
I think it would have much less

603
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,880
appetite for it to to go go
Interstate, take on like, again,

604
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,920
more hedging, take on technical
risk, all those sorts of things.

605
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:22,280
But yeah, that's my gut feeling.
And where does that leave the

606
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:27,880
sales process?
Well, if you were Regis, what do

607
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,120
you do?
Probably put in a pretty lowball

608
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,520
bid.
And that lowball bid might be

609
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,200
just like, like the actual price
you'd be willing to, you know,

610
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:42,360
stump up if it like a super
lowball bid and private equity,

611
00:29:42,360 --> 00:29:44,240
what are they going to do?
They're probably not going to

612
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:45,840
accept it.
I put good money that this

613
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:47,960
doesn't sell.
Like that's my, like my, my

614
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,920
leading hypothesis is that it
doesn't, it doesn't sell.

615
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:58,360
Or maybe maybe gear buys EMR,
EMR stake that like in for like

616
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,680
negligible profit.
And that lets kind of, you know,

617
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:05,840
EMR have the, the, the kind of
closure outcome that's required

618
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:08,120
for their for the LP's and the
funds and the asset and all that

619
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:11,800
sort of stuff.
But I struggle to sort of see if

620
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,080
these are the only two parties
there.

621
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:18,200
I'm I'm more skeptical of a of
an outcome that kind of will

622
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,480
actually be acceptable and
palatable unless they accept the

623
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,920
very low ball off of ranges.
Yeah, absolutely.

624
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,440
That's that's the other aspect
just to emphasize with PE, they

625
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,800
bought it in 2020, but who knows
when the that particular fund, I

626
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,520
think that was already a couple
years old.

627
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,800
They have definitive timelines.
They have pressure on when they

628
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,240
need to have outcomes and get
stuff done.

629
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:42,560
And if it doesn't sell now, you
know, maybe they can extend a

630
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:43,840
few years with the fund and
stuff.

631
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,840
Maybe they had a few more years
up their sleeve.

632
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,960
But they have outcome pressures
that unless they roll it into

633
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,920
the next fund and these sorts of
things which PE does over time,

634
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,600
but they no doubt have pressures
put on them as well to achieve

635
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:00,520
outcomes so.
I I do think both like Focus and

636
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,800
Bellevue are going to be
competitive and.

637
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,680
Undoubtedly.
And LV back.

638
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:06,480
Down at that below the raise
price.

639
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:10,520
Yeah.
And Ravenswood is not like not

640
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,560
competitive, right.
So there's like, yeah, like what

641
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,760
kind of bargain you're going to
get on a relative basis, like, I

642
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:21,880
don't don't know.
But but yeah, like they'd be the

643
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,400
equations for for a company like
Regis.

644
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,480
Yeah.
Given we've also said in the

645
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:31,520
past that winning a competitive
auction process is is no great

646
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,480
achievement, but we'll see what
happens on that front given that

647
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:36,080
the nature of it.
Absolutely, mate.

648
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,320
I think we've got some Marks and
partners to thank mate.

649
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,520
Absolutely a massive thank you
to Mineral Mining services,

650
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,600
Grandeur, Sandvik Ground
support, CRE Insurance, K drill,

651
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,960
KCA site services, Black diamond
drilling services and Cross

652
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:48,640
Boundary Energy.