Why you should give a s**t about aluminium

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Right home money miners talk
about a bloody aluminium and

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alumina and bauxite spectacular
coming your way.

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And tell you what, if you want
to move an absolute shit load of

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bauxite, MMS would friggin move
that for you.

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Or any other bloody blasted Rock
You can think of.

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They are the movers of it.
That's all you need to know.

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Give them a bell.
They move it, they mine it, they

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make you money.
They can be a bauxite

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specialist, right boys?
You've got the absolute OG

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legend of those three things I
just said.

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This is aluminium Allen.
There's no better way to to talk

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about him other than this is the
guy you want insight into a

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market, which is pretty damn
kind of nation requires like,

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you know, decades and decades of
expertise to understand and and

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tentacles into China.
This is the guy Aluminium Allen.

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He wasn't named Alan by accident
from.

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Perth he was.
Destined to be an aluminium

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expert.
That was it's our boy.

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It was sensational yarn.
We RIP it in or you want to give

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a bit of context. 2 bit two
things one is this was probably

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top three favourite conversation
I've ever had on this show like

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it was it was just freaking
awesome.

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You can probably tell JD and I
are frotham the whole way

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through it.
The other, the other thing I'd

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point out is we actually
recorded this right before the

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day before the news came out
that, that, you know, this GAC,

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this bauxite miner in, in, in
Guinea, which is owned by sort

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of the Emirates countries was
having issues exporting bauxite.

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And so Alan in some ways is a
bit prophetic when he talks

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about, you know, some of the
some of the tightness in the

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market and some of the the
challenges that come around the,

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you know, the world's addiction
to Guinea, Guinea in particular.

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Well said.
Alan is a true Gen and I think

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we've said enough.
Let's cut to the cut to the

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show.
It was a truly awesome

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discussion.
Awesome, here we go.

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Alrighty, we've got aluminium Au
with us here today and I think

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the the natural place to start
this conversation now is why

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should people give a shit about
bauxite alumina aluminium?

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That's a very good question.
Why should they give a shit?

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A lot of people would say, well,
they shouldn't.

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But I think when you look at the
role that aluminium plays, you

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know, in society, look at the
the different markets that

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aluminium feeds into.
This is one of the things that

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differentiates it from, you
know, from steel or from copper

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or from, you know, some of these
other metals is that now it's

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used all over the place.
I mean, I'm holding a can here,

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right, which is aluminium, of
course.

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And so it's packaging, it's
construction, it's

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electrification, it's transport,
it's consumer durables, all

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this, all these different
applications, which makes it

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quite a versatile metal.
So and kind of no matter where

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you look, you're going to see it
somewhere.

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So people should care a little
bit more about it, I'd say.

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Yeah.
I think that the, the care

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factor is somewhat proportionate
to the, you know, ability for

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people to get it like, you know,
financial exposure.

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There's not, there's not like 20
aluminium stocks out there that

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people.
To gamble on.

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Stocks for people to gamble on,
gamble on literally.

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Yeah, that's true.
Maybe if we're in like, yeah,

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Zorgo or London or wherever the
traders are, there's a bit more

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not knowledge in this area.
But here in Perth, like where

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people care, like interested in
mining, despite the fact that we

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have a, a, a pretty substantial,
you know, bauxite mining

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industry here and, and you know,
refining industry here, we kind

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of don't follow this externally
as much as we should.

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Well, maybe that will all change
now.

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Because I think like one of the
reasons those those sorts of

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people are interested in it as
well, Trev, is because it's a

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market of serious scale.
Like it's you go down the, the

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metals, you sort of have, I
guess energy and all to start

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with.
And then maybe iron ore, which

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has been a tough one for
commodity traders to kind of

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crack in a way, but books out
the whole complex, you know,

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aluminium complex is there
because it's of serious scale.

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And you, you hear about
trafficker and and other sorts

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of groups playing around and LME
types of dynamics because it is

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a a market of serious size,
right?

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Well, it is.
I mean, last year I think 400

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million tonnes of books aren't
mined worldwide, so fairly

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substantial and 100 million
tonnes of that was here in

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Australia, so 4. 400 million
tonnes of bauxite. 400 million

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tonnes of bauxite.
Yeah, how much bauxite is

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required to get to like?
Well, that's a very good

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question.
And that's half the problem I

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think with bauxite when you use
the word bauxite because you

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kind of think of this generic
kind of this mineral, right?

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Yes, Bauxite is not a mineral.
It's just a it's just a generic

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term we we bought in a few
props.

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Some samples.
A couple a couple different

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samples.
Of that's right, one from

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northern Australians, a couple
there from Guinea.

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But this is this is northern
Australia bauxite.

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Yeah.
The thing about the thing you've

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got to remember about, you know,
the word bauxite is actually

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refers to three different
minerals, right, Gibbsite,

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Baumite and diaspora, they're
all bauxites and they're all

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very different.
And so how you treat them is

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very different.
So you know your the alumina

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refiner, it's going to process
that those different types of

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bauxite now that has to be built
purpose built for that

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particular bauxite.
Maybe you start changing bulk

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sites and alumina refineries and
it's a disaster.

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So is that that the the fact
that the the downstream is so

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like like spec built to what
whatever is being mined?

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Is that why the industry's
evolved in such a way where you

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see so much of the the vertical
industry integration is like so

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immediate.
There's like mind, mind to mouth

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strategies of the of the.
That's right.

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I mean it's called the mind
mouth to refinery model, right.

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So what that means is that the
that the refinery is designed,

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it's purpose designed for a
particular bauxite.

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So the three refineries that are
operating here in WA, Darling

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Range bauxite can't put, you
can't put Queensland that stuff

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there in the jar.
You can't put that into a

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Western Australian refinery.
That's like putting diesel into

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a petrol engine.
It's not going to work.

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And it's also.
We all.

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Have to, to go one step further
from the the sort of tailored

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specification of the refinery.
It's also that much more

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uneconomic to do so and to to
look into the seaborne market,

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which is a a threat that we
might talk about a bit more.

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Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I think to get to that,

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we've got to kind of wind back
time a little bit to to to see

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how we've maybe got to that
seaborne market and try to

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understand what the seaborne
market really is today, because

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I don't think it's what people
actually think it is.

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No, wait, wait.
Like an aluminium like well, you

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know aluminium industry evolved
relatively recently as well,

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right?
Like what's the history with the

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emergence of it?
Because like, I'm a student of

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commodity, commodity markets,
but even I don't know much about

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this.
All I know is that Rio paid too

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much at the top of cycle for.
Sure.

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We'll get to that.
Yeah.

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I mean, well, it's recently in
that sense.

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I mean, you know, when it was
first produced, you know, using

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electrolysis, you know, all
those years ago, 1880s, it was,

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it was more valuable than gold
until somebody kind of figured

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out how to make it cheaply.
And now it's not.

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And it's so.
So as a as a tech breakthrough

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that enabled.
Yeah, well it's a whole Rd

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process.
It's electrolysis.

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I mean the some things just some
basic things about aluminium,

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right.
I mean you know, you, you smelt

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it from its oxide AL2O3AL2O3 is
is corundum.

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I mean you think of most scale
of hardness, right?

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This stuff is incredibly hard.
The bonds are very strong.

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So to bust it, you need a lot of
energy, a lot of electricity,

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you know, to break it apart.
And it's broken apart in the

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cell where it produces the, the
metal and carbon dioxide because

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the anodes are the anodes are
carbon.

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All right.
So it's a big producer of carbon

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dioxide that in the now in the,
in the technology that's used

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today.
But it, I mean, having said

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that, if it's, if you know, you,
you place a smelter somewhere

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where you've got access to low
cost electricity and you've got

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access to alumina, then it's a
low cost process.

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And you know, Australia's got a,
you know, it's got a huge

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history in the, in the aluminium
sector.

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We've had a smelter in in
Tasmania since 1955 still

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running today, running very well
and it's running on hydropower

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owned.
By South 32.

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Owned by Rio.
Rio.

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Sorry.
Yeah, Sorry.

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Yeah.
Bell by smelter.

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Yeah, yeah.
And then if we we'll check a map

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up right now, if we look around
the around the world, we can

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sort of point to the other kind
of pockets where cheap energy

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and yeah, refineries kind of go
together.

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Let me talk through that for a
moment.

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There's China.
Yeah.

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Then there's China.
Yeah.

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Then after that there's China.
I mean, China's producing 60% of

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the world's primary aluminium
today, right?

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It's very different to 20 or 30
years ago.

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Very, very different.
I mean in that period, right.

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And we'll get into the history a
bit later, I'm sure.

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But if you think of the the, the
period between about 2006 and

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2016, maybe a bit later than
2016, but China basically

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doubled the world's aluminium
smelting capacity.

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So it would have taken the world
sort of 100 years to build.

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The Chinese doubled it in 10
years.

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Same with aluminium refiner,
because you need the aluminium

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obviously, to feed into the
smelters.

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They basically built, you know,
the world's aluminium and

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smelting capacity 10 years.
Powered by cheap coal.

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Powered by mostly by cheap coal.
Now there's smelters, hydro

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smelters and, you know, yeah, or
hydropower and, you know, so the

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smelters have kind of relocated
and they're putting in a lot of

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renewables right now.
It's a gigawatts of.

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It's a industrial strategy that
we've seen them roll out kind of

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subsequently in, in emerging
industries too.

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Yeah, you know, like lithium,
they overbuilt the the, the

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downstream kind of capacity
before there was either demand

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on or, or, or supply
availability.

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They, they overbuild it and then
kind of kind of even in some

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ways form a, a competitive
advantage in that process, which

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creates a, a, a complete
reliance on, on their expertise

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too.
Yeah, it's a it's a very tricky

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issue.
You know, looking at, you know,

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China overcapacity, there's been
a lot set in the aluminium

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industry over the years about,
you know, China deliberately

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building more capacity than they
need to, you know, to export to

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the world.
I think you've got to also look

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at it in the context of, of
China's industrialisation and

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its urbanisation.
We were talking about this

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earlier, you know, these two,
these two phenomenon that

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happened together meant that
demand for, you know, for iron

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ore and demand for aluminium and
copper and so forth.

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I mean, it, it just, it was
double digit growth for a

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decade.
And so, you know, how do you

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kind of regulate how much
capacity you build when you're

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at double digit growth for that
long?

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And so, you know, in in some
ways I kind of see it as them

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just keeping ahead of the curve,
you know, maybe a bit, maybe a

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bit too far ahead of the curve
at times, but maybe not as well

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just wanting to keep up with
their own, you know, their own

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domestic consumption.
There's a sort of analogy to

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lithium today and you, you
fluctuate from surpluses to

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deficits kind of massively in a,
in a growth market, right?

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Yeah.
Well, it's true.

224
00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:25,640
Although I kind of look at the
lithium market and think, you

225
00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,640
know, I get a bit hum about it
'cause we're talking about a

226
00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:29,040
market that's 10 million tonnes,
right?

227
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:30,560
Yeah.
And on smaller scale and when

228
00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,000
you're talking about 400 million
tonnes, yeah, or or, or it's,

229
00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:35,320
it's not a lot.
Yeah.

230
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,320
And we, we see the capacity,
the, you know, the conversion

231
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,640
capacity being built in China
for lithium.

232
00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,440
I'm talking about yeah, it's a
bit ahead of the curve, but it's

233
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:46,000
low cost as well.
You know, it's not the capital

234
00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,720
cost to build the conversion and
the purification capacities.

235
00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:53,520
Not that, not that much of A of
a constraint.

236
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:59,280
And the the bulk site that China
has used in the past 20 years,

237
00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:02,160
yeah, a lot of that has come
from China, right?

238
00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:06,320
But that's sort of changing over
time and could look a bit

239
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,520
different, you know, looking
forward over the next decade or

240
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:09,960
two.
Yeah, a lot different.

241
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,960
Again, we've got to kind of wind
the clock a bit back a bit here.

242
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,160
And you know, kind of look at,
you know, when this, you know,

243
00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,200
when this phenomenal growth
period kind of started.

244
00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:22,320
I mean, China's got a lot of a
lot of bulks on.

245
00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:26,400
It's diasporic bulks on right,
which is monohydrate and it's

246
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,040
like gravel.
I mean, the first time I saw it

247
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,840
when I went to, I mean, you
know, here's me the box I'd

248
00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,720
export right turn up to China
and there's a truck goes past

249
00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,720
before all this grey rocks on
the back.

250
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:41,440
I said, what's that?
Actually, they kind of look at

251
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,040
me.
That's that's the local box on

252
00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:44,680
aluminium.
Alum.

253
00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:46,600
Yeah, that's right.
Well, I.

254
00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,640
Shot myself there.
But I mean, it's very, very

255
00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:52,360
different, right?
You to look at it's different

256
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,680
that doesn't have the same iron
content, but it's also up to

257
00:12:54,680 --> 00:12:59,600
like 60% alumina yeah so it's
high high grade bauxite.

258
00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:02,880
Problem with it is though, that,
you know, to dissolve it because

259
00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,760
one of the things, you know, the
Bayer process requires that, you

260
00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:12,120
know, you crush it and dissolve
it into caustic soda and to get

261
00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,280
it into solution when it for
diasporic bauxite at the

262
00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,640
temperature's kind of 260 two
180°, Whereas if it's Ipside,

263
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:23,320
it's, I'm 40 or something like
that, somebody out there is

264
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,320
going to say to me, actually,
you've got those numbers wrong.

265
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,440
You know what I mean?
It's a lot higher, right?

266
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,520
And, and if there's silica
associated with it, when you're,

267
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,880
you know, when you're dissolving
at such a high temperature, the

268
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,520
silica dissolves as well.
And, and so the silica content

269
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,200
of the bauxite is absolutely
critical to understand because

270
00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:42,400
it can dissolve into the
caustic.

271
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,120
That just puts the cost up
because when you strip it out,

272
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:48,440
you strip the silica out, you
strip alumina with it and you're

273
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:50,920
losing caustic.
So, you know, I come back to

274
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,240
kind of Western Australia versus
Queensland, right?

275
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,640
When you think about the, the
differences in the bulk sites,

276
00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:59,000
the, the, the, the really
attractive feature about the WA

277
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,440
bulk site is there's virtually
no reacting silica in it.

278
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,680
Like maybe one 1%, there's
quarts in it, but it's gypsydic.

279
00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:09,280
So you know, you're dissolving
it at a low temperature, which

280
00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:11,840
means you don't get much silica,
which means your caustic soda

281
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,000
consumption is way, way lower
than other refineries, which

282
00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,680
means it's a, they're low cost
refineries.

283
00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:21,280
So you might have, you know,
the, the, the, the alumina

284
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,880
content might be, I don't know,
3233% something like that.

285
00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,840
But the silica is like 1.
So that's why these refineries

286
00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:34,120
in WM and they're running well,
they're Q1Q1 refineries.

287
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,400
Queensland Bauxite is completely
different.

288
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:40,800
That stuff there is, it's got,
it's got it's, that's what ends

289
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:41,280
up.
Yeah, yeah.

290
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,680
Yeah, this turns into that.
You know, the Queensland bauxite

291
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,600
is, has got Bolmite in it and
that dissolves at a higher

292
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,720
temperature.
So you've got to dissolve it's,

293
00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:52,360
it's Gibbsite and Bolmite
together, right?

294
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,280
Mostly Gibbsite, but if you want
to get all of the alumina then

295
00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:59,440
you've got to dissolve it at a
high temperature and then the

296
00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,640
silica comes with it because
there's much more silica in the

297
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,280
Queensland bauxite.
So it's, you know, it's a

298
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:05,960
different, that's why I say, you
know, diesel versus petrol,

299
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,080
very, very different.
Before, before China had this

300
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:14,680
intentional strategy of of, you
know, building out their, their

301
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,120
in country kind of, you know,
capability both on the mining

302
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,160
and the refining.
Like what did that landscape

303
00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,960
look like over the the preceding
decades?

304
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:30,000
If you go back to the, the, the
in the early 2000s, I remember,

305
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,560
you know, we, we started, you
know, I started our office

306
00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,280
originally in China just at the
end of the 90s, right?

307
00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,880
So we were there kind of
watching this unfold.

308
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:44,360
And you know, China's aluminium
refineries to start with were,

309
00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,360
were rudimentary because they
only had some, you know, they

310
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,160
had sort of basic knowledge of
the, of the Bayer process and

311
00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:54,040
they had all diasporic books on.
So they weren't importing any

312
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,760
books on in the early days.
And so all of these refineries

313
00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,760
were all high temperature
refineries because it's

314
00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,880
diasporic bauxite.
Right when you get to about

315
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:08,640
2006, 7-8 was when this demand
for alumina in China really

316
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:13,000
started to take off.
Then China went to the world to

317
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,160
find alumina and they wasn't
there, not in the not in the

318
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,280
volumes they needed.
So what did they do?

319
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,320
They built a alumina refund that
they knew and then they went out

320
00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,880
to find the bauxite.
The 1st place they landed on was

321
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,000
Indonesia.
Yeah, right.

322
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:31,440
So the, the period between about
2008 and 2000 and I think the

323
00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:35,120
the first minerals export ban
came into Indonesia maybe

324
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:42,480
January 2014, right, the first
ban and running up to that

325
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,240
period, you know, China was
importing books out up to about

326
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,600
I think the last year 2013, they
maybe took about 40 million

327
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,840
tonnes out of out of Indonesia.
So it had really started to, to,

328
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,880
to, you know, gather some
momentum and at the same time,

329
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:02,800
their own diasporic bauxite was
starting to deplete, right.

330
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:04,920
And I mean, like I said before,
there's plenty of bauxite in

331
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:07,560
China, but it's, it's this AS
ratio, it's the ratio between

332
00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,560
the alumina and the silica.
But once that gets down to about

333
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:14,359
3 or 3 1/2, I mean, you know,
when you've got 15% silica in

334
00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,200
your bauxite, it's just not
economic anymore.

335
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:17,359
Is that?
Is that a?

336
00:17:18,599 --> 00:17:20,319
Like I say that it's a function
of depth.

337
00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:22,839
If you go as you go deeper or
deplete the resource, it just

338
00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:23,880
gets.
No.

339
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,400
Or is it a function of just?
These resources were.

340
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,240
Well known where they are and
they're just limited.

341
00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:31,160
Yeah, there's some of that for
dice bike book sites, there's,

342
00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:35,000
there's some of that, but it's
really just in the formation.

343
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,360
So some of it's got more silica
associated with it, and yeah,

344
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,120
some of it doesn't.
And it's not the sort of

345
00:17:40,120 --> 00:17:42,960
commodity where you're going to
have exploration success because

346
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:44,960
we're talking about bulk mining
operations here.

347
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,040
Like, that's right, Whatever's
there is known.

348
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,240
And and I would advise you
against using the word

349
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:50,440
commodity.
OK.

350
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,200
What should I use?
I would just call it bulk side

351
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,040
of diaspora for now.
But I mean that's one of the

352
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:56,680
things there people think about
bulk.

353
00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,320
So you do think about it as a.
Commodity in the sense of it not

354
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,280
being completely fungible.
Yeah, fungibility is an

355
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,400
important part of it.
It's it's like, you know, can I,

356
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,400
if I buy a cargo of bauxite in
Guinea, then well, can I replace

357
00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,720
it?
Can I buy a, a cargo books

358
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,920
already from Queensland in six
months time?

359
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,120
And it's yeah, OK, Absolutely no
way.

360
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,960
So to I'll do it to negate the
the challenges when you don't

361
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,000
have the direct mind to refinery
sort of model.

362
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,880
I assume you tie them up on long
term contracts.

363
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,800
So you know you're getting
supply from that mine even

364
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,200
though it's in Indonesia and
you're in China for a long, long

365
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:30,840
time.
Yeah.

366
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,040
Yeah, what?
What you want coming through the

367
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:37,320
gate of your refinery every
single day is exactly the same

368
00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:38,640
Bauxite.
Consistent.

369
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:40,400
Right.
Just every time.

370
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:41,840
It's like steel mills.
It's like.

371
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,280
That's right.
I think for, for, for

372
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:48,560
refineries, it's, it's
accentuated a lot more.

373
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,200
I mean, because there's such a
huge variation in bauxite, it's

374
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,160
much more than there are, let's
say on ores, for example.

375
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,080
So you absolutely need the same
thing.

376
00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,760
When when, by the way, when
China went through that, that

377
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,640
period of, you know, enormous
growth, they were out scouring

378
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,320
the world for bauxite
everywhere.

379
00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,160
You know we trip over them in
also to we wonderful parts of

380
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,560
the world looking for bauxite.
Where's an example?

381
00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:15,120
Oh, Jamaica, Yeah, we talked
about earlier, yeah, there's

382
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,120
books on Madagascar.
Yeah.

383
00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:19,680
But now he's getting out.
It's very, very difficult to get

384
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:21,760
it out.
Obviously here in Australia,

385
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,160
Indonesia, Vietnam has got a lot
of books on.

386
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,800
Guinea.
Well, we kind of gravitate back

387
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,760
to Guinea because Guinea has got
the biggest, you know, bauxite

388
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:34,720
deposits in the world and
they're, you know, reasonably

389
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,680
high grade and there's enough
there to keep every refinery on

390
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,200
earth running for the next 100
years.

391
00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,360
There's a lot.
What's the catch with Guinea?

392
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,800
Well, it's Guinea.
I mean for China, what's the

393
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,640
catch with Guinea, it's the
other side of the earth, right.

394
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:52,080
So there's always going to be a
huge freight component.

395
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,640
So the books are priced today on
our on our index is probably

396
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,720
about 77 bucks for a, for a
standard use that term

397
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,680
advisedly.
But for, for our reference rate

398
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:07,040
of Guinea and books that's about
77 bucks and you know probably

399
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,280
30 that's freight.
So that's one of the drawbacks.

400
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,440
But the other?
Drawback, of course, is that you

401
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,240
know, it's it's not an easy
place to, you know, to operate.

402
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:21,160
But the, the export profile,
it's just been dramatic the last

403
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:25,760
decade coming out, yeah.
Well, again, I'll, I'll, I'll

404
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,680
bring the clock back to say
2014, right, because you know,

405
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,680
the, the Chinese model, right?
So they shifted, they couldn't

406
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,560
have the, the mind mouth
refinery model.

407
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,680
It didn't work because you
couldn't get the mind mouth.

408
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,160
You couldn't, you couldn't put
your foot on enough bauxite to

409
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:43,800
make a mind mouth refinery model
work.

410
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,120
So they went to Indonesia and
the model then was Indonesian

411
00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:50,520
bauxite into refineries in
China.

412
00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,720
And that's the way we'll we'll
apply it for the next decade or

413
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,320
so.
But the Indonesians introduced

414
00:20:56,320 --> 00:21:00,360
the minerals export ban in 2014
and that was the end of that.

415
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:02,440
So then they had to go looking,
right.

416
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,720
The next place they landed on
was Malaysia.

417
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,600
And Malaysia introduced not an
export ban.

418
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,400
They introduced a bulksite
mining moratorium, which is

419
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:13,960
like, you know, get your act
together.

420
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,000
If you're going to mine bulksite
here, then you have to do it in

421
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,120
a certain way.
And so they banned bulksite

422
00:21:20,120 --> 00:21:23,560
mining temporarily.
And then they just moved the ban

423
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:28,280
about six or seven times, which
became years, right?

424
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,520
And so, you know, the, the, the,
the Chinese then thought, well,

425
00:21:32,360 --> 00:21:35,040
we're next.
This kind of plays back into

426
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:39,040
Alcan, right, which I will come
back to because Australia was an

427
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,920
A choice back then, right?
But where did they go?

428
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,480
They went to Guinea because if
it's high grade and it you know,

429
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:50,880
it's and, and the volume.
How village operate they built

430
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,520
out rail in that time to.
You know, they built one rail.

431
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,960
Yeah, yeah, they that came
online between 23.

432
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,120
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
There was already an existing

433
00:21:58,120 --> 00:22:00,720
railway there because, you know,
one of the world's biggest

434
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,440
bauxite mine, CBG, which is
owned 49% of the Canadian

435
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,080
government, a group called the
Halco Partners, which is Rio

436
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,960
Alcoa and Dadco.
And so that's been there for a

437
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:14,000
long, long time.
And there's a railway there and

438
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:15,800
some other companies use that
railway as well.

439
00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:17,760
So that had been established,
right?

440
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,760
But it was 2015 when Chinese
companies arrived and the

441
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:27,080
exports, you know, from Guinea
to China went from like

442
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,320
1,000,000 tonnes per annum
probably in 2014, 2015 to 100

443
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,040
million tonnes, you know, in, in
about 8 years.

444
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:35,600
It's phenomenal.
It was.

445
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,960
That's mind boggling it.
Wasn't so it wasn't a resource

446
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:42,280
issue that that, that all, you
know, eventuated in there in

447
00:22:42,360 --> 00:22:44,400
Malaysia and Indonesia, not
quite any expectations.

448
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,000
It was just political regimes.
Well, yeah, it was there It was.

449
00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,760
I mean, you know, the Indonesian
minerals export ban was bought

450
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:58,400
in specifically to, you know,
to, to have companies add value.

451
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:00,760
Indonesia, I mean, we've seen
what's happened with nickel,

452
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,440
right?
I mean, it's, it's gone crazy.

453
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,800
It it worked, it worked.
It worked with nickel.

454
00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:06,840
It didn't work.
Well, it was.

455
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,280
With, with, with.
I wouldn't say it didn't work.

456
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,760
I'd say it was less successful
at the time.

457
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,160
I mean, what the what the
Indonesians did in 2017 was they

458
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,000
introduced some amendments to
the minerals export ban and the

459
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,840
amendments, I'll paraphrase
them, right, But basically what

460
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,680
they said was right.
We're going to give you a 5 year

461
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,160
window to build Illumina
refineries and during that that

462
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,240
five year period you can export
on a pro rata kind of quoted

463
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,040
basis.
So we're not, we're not going to

464
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,200
remove the minerals export ban,
but we're going to give you an

465
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,880
opportunity for some cash flow
so that you can build

466
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,280
refineries.
And then we're going to audit

467
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,160
your your success, you know, for
if we're building the

468
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,200
refineries.
And then in 2022, we're going to

469
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,480
close the window again.
And so, you know, books and

470
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,360
exports started to flow out of
Indonesia again.

471
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,000
And some projects were genuine
and some weren't.

472
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,920
But the bauxite started to flow
again into China.

473
00:24:04,360 --> 00:24:07,400
Then came then, you know, with
COVID delayed it by a year.

474
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,680
But in 2023 they said, right,
that's it.

475
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,920
We're closing the window again.
And, and, and what we're seeing

476
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,120
now is that there is a
proliferation of Illumina

477
00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:18,160
refinery projects in Indonesia
right now.

478
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,040
Yeah.
So you, you can't look and say

479
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,840
what was the, you know, has it
been effective or was it not as

480
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,520
effective as it was for nickel?
I mean they're different

481
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,040
industries in that there.
You know, you just look at the

482
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,520
capital intensity for an
aluminium refinery, you know,

483
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,240
it's a one $1.5 billion to build
a refinery.

484
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:43,640
So it's not, it's not cheaper
and, and so you have to, you

485
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:49,080
have to want to commit to that.
And I think, you know, over the,

486
00:24:49,120 --> 00:24:51,440
the last, I don't know, maybe 5
or 6 years ago that a lot of

487
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,440
Chinese companies have been a
little reluctant to do that.

488
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,480
They were building, still
building refineries in China.

489
00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:00,000
So it wasn't an easy decision to
say we, we go to Indonesia.

490
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,880
But now I think things are
starting to change and we are

491
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,640
seeing more, more interest.
So you know, I'd argue that the

492
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,760
minerals export bans actually
been pretty successful for

493
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,280
aluminium as well.
Yeah, it's just taking longer.

494
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,240
Just takes longer, yeah.
Well, it doesn't take longer to

495
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,360
get ground support if Sandvik
and your ground support

496
00:25:14,360 --> 00:25:15,840
supplier.
That's one thing that does not

497
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:17,600
take longer.
The quickest way to get ground

498
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,960
support on site to keep your
underground mine humming is

499
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:23,800
having Sandvik is the vendor for
it.

500
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,360
That's bloody Jada.
If you were an underground mine

501
00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:28,280
manager, who would you pick as
your ground support?

502
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,440
Support Sandvik, Mate Sandvik.
Trav yourself.

503
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,520
Sandvik JJ So do I need to ask
who you would think if you were

504
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,840
running an underground mine?
Sandvik That is the consensus we

505
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:38,720
want anyway.
Let's get back to it.

506
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,680
That's that's kind of yeah,
fascinating.

507
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,440
So that's, that's like the
Chinese part of the market over

508
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,680
time, which of course you can't
have a commodity story without

509
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,680
what China's been doing.
But the but simultaneously, what

510
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,520
have the Western companies been
doing?

511
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,400
What's the what have the
Russians been doing?

512
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,480
What's?
Well, very little to nothing.

513
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,560
I think the honest answer, when
you look at how much capacity

514
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,400
has been built in China, yeah,
you know, I'm talking about

515
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,440
aluminium refining capacity and
smelter capacity.

516
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,040
I mean, there's been some has
been built over the period, but

517
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,680
you know, China has just
eclipsed a lot.

518
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:22,440
There's been some, some, you
know, a few refineries built,

519
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,560
but there's been, I'd argue, I
think there's actually been more

520
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,920
Catalan than there has been
built.

521
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,000
So the refineries that are that
are owned by like the South 80

522
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,800
twos, the Alcoas of the world,
the Rio Tintos of the world,

523
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,440
they're basically all the same
refineries that were around 30

524
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:37,440
years ago.
Correct.

525
00:26:38,120 --> 00:26:40,080
Yeah.
You've seen not a lot of pro.

526
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,200
There's been, there's been a
few, there's been a few built in

527
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,680
Vietnam, but they were built by
the Chinese.

528
00:26:44,120 --> 00:26:48,680
You know, one of the biggest
refineries in the US, Port

529
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,680
Comfort, which was owned by
Point Comfort, owned by alcohol,

530
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,480
was shut down and the bauxite
sent to China.

531
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,080
Gove, if you remember, you
probably don't remember, there

532
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,160
used to be an Illumina refiner
at Gove in NT.

533
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,560
Yeah, shut that down. 2015, I
think shut it down, sent the

534
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:12,000
bauxite to China.
So capacity has sort of come out

535
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,880
more than it's been or it's been
built.

536
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:15,920
Aluminium refining.
I'm talking not, not smelting.

537
00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:21,360
But the the what what that like,
what is the story with Alcan

538
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:22,920
right?
Like, I mean, it's just like

539
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,840
everyone knows.
You can wait too long, no?

540
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,920
But so if if like I don't know
if like if if if if the story is

541
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:33,560
that I have to.
Change my beer to answer this

542
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,280
question.
So thanks for the Coopers by the

543
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:37,520
way.
That makes me feel like I'm at

544
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,160
home.
We've got to look after the SA.

545
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,680
Thanks to whoever I can't
remember who bought Coopers for

546
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:43,640
us.
But anyway, thank you for.

547
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:49,800
That, yeah, the Alcan story,
it's, it's, it's, it's

548
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:53,160
intriguing, but it takes you
back to, you know, the heady

549
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:55,800
days of sort of 2000 and six,
2007, right?

550
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,800
We were talking about this, you
know, this this period in time

551
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,200
where I think the rest of the
world realised that what was

552
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:07,280
happening in China was real.
And that was, you know, reports

553
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,480
coming out of China that iron
ore was going from sort of 15

554
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:16,680
bucks a tonne to 70, which, you
know, that was that's a hell of

555
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,560
a, an increase back then.
And is it real?

556
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,240
Is it not real?
Is this whole idea of

557
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:25,200
urbanisation real or not?
But I think it was about that

558
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,760
time that it was, you know,
people could see that this was

559
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:32,080
actually happening and demand
was just, you know, it was, it

560
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:33,840
had skyrocketed, particularly
for iron ore.

561
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,000
But now there was a, there was
a, a thought that aluminium

562
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,080
would go with it at A at a
similar kind of pace.

563
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,560
Where did that come from, that
perception?

564
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,000
I think the, the general idea of
industrialization, I mean we

565
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,600
were talking before about the
different market sectors, right,

566
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,080
for aluminium.
So it's construction is a big

567
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,680
one for aluminium as well.
So you know, construction starts

568
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,520
to pick up, then aluminium
demand starts to pick up and you

569
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,520
know, infrastructure and you
know transport and so forth.

570
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:05,600
So there was some, there were
signs of demand, you know,

571
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,320
increasing quite significantly
in China at the same time the

572
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,640
Chinese were out looking for
alumina.

573
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,360
So these kind of things were all
coming together at a time when,

574
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:20,600
you know, markets became very
frothy and bubbly and, you know,

575
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,960
people got a bit sort of over
rejuberant.

576
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,240
Yeah, just to some degree.
And, and, and when you think

577
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,320
about Alcan, come back to Alcan,
right?

578
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:33,160
So at the time, so in 2007,
there were a number of companies

579
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,520
that were running the ruler over
Alcan.

580
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:39,360
It wasn't just real.
Yeah, yeah, BHP was too, right?

581
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,840
Well, BHP had a look, but they'd
never come out and said

582
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:43,840
anything.
They hadn't come out and made a

583
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:45,320
bid.
And Alcoa bid.

584
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,160
Alcoa did first, yeah.
And that and that turned

585
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:49,280
hostile, right?
Yeah.

586
00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:53,240
And that was that was rejected.
And Rio came way over the town

587
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:54,520
well.
No, there was one in between

588
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,720
which was valet.
Valet as well.

589
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:02,600
Formerly known CBRD, Yeah, yeah.
So CBRD made a bid, right?

590
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,760
And and so the, and so Rio
trumped it.

591
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:07,800
But, you know, I remember the
time because we were doing some

592
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,000
work for VHP and some other
companies.

593
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,720
We were kind of looking at the,
the valuations that would go

594
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:17,480
with these, these crazy prices
that were being offered.

595
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,640
And you kind of think, you know,
you look at, you think, how the

596
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,360
hell did they get to that
valuation?

597
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:22,680
What are they assuming?
Yeah, yeah.

598
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,120
I mean, there's only so many
numbers you can change in a

599
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,200
financial model to get it moving
up.

600
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:28,760
It's got to be aluminium price,
right?

601
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,840
Or it's got volumes or you know,
whatever it is, so.

602
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:32,920
Many parallels to lithium.
Yeah.

603
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,680
I mean, but the prices were, I
mean they in the end they paid

604
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,760
36 billion for it, right US,
which in today's money is

605
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,720
probably about, I don't know, 55
to 60 billion, but it's a lot of

606
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:45,720
money.
And it was higher than

607
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:50,520
significantly higher than
Varlow, which was significantly

608
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,160
higher than any of the other
valuations that we kind of saw

609
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:56,240
at the time that, you know,
people look and go how did they

610
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,680
get to that number.
They debt funded it and like.

611
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,000
Well, they debt funded it and
remember though that it was also

612
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,080
the time at which BHP had made a
bid for Rio.

613
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,640
Yeah, yeah.
So there's a lot happening, and

614
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,360
this is all coming.
You know, you come back to,

615
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,680
well, this is China, this is
this incredible growth rates,

616
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,960
these companies trying to
position themselves to take

617
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,600
advantage best they could.
And so Alcan was kind of the

618
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,280
obvious target.
What's the ultimate?

619
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,520
Was it a bit of a poison pill
for Rio to to, you know, pay too

620
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,640
much for Alcan so that they had
defensibility from actually

621
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,000
being acquired by BHP?
Yeah, well, like, you know,

622
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,360
plenty of sorry, there's plenty
of speculation, right?

623
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:32,240
Oh, now I got my own view.
Do.

624
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,440
You reckon the the government
would ever have let that happen?

625
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,920
What?
They asked me to take Rio.

626
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,640
No, it's not just the government
here.

627
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,160
I think there would have been
foreign investment review boards

628
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:44,920
all over the world who would
have looked at and said we're

629
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:49,320
not going to.
I think it was always, yeah, it

630
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,920
was always kind of kind of
struggle just on that alone.

631
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,200
Yeah.
Yeah.

632
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:56,880
But I mean, you come back to the
poison pill.

633
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,800
The idea of the poison pill,
right, is that, you know, you,

634
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,800
you swallow it for a large sum
of money and, and therefore

635
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,520
you're less attractive, you
know, as a, as a takeover

636
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,800
target.
And, you know, my view at the

637
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,120
time was that there was, there
was plenty of that in it.

638
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,480
My personal view, there's plenty
of that.

639
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:17,160
It wasn't just, yeah, it was, it
was a factor for sure.

640
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,680
There was, like I said, there's
all this froth and bubble about

641
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,280
the aluminium industry and, and
aluminium demand growth sort of

642
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,960
going crazy.
But by the way, we're, you know,

643
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:32,560
we've got, we've got a suit all.
And this is a, dare I say, a

644
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,360
convenient way of making it more
difficult.

645
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:39,280
It's kind of amazing.
They're like the, the, the, the,

646
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,480
the wonderful cash printed that
is sort of Pilgrim iron ore can

647
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,200
kind of, you know, paint over
those pretty horrendous

648
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,160
blemishes in, in kind of, you
know, corporate history.

649
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,960
Like a well, like a 35.
Today's all is $50 billion plus

650
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,760
acquisition.
Well, I come back to the, you

651
00:32:56,760 --> 00:33:00,160
know, the, the, the, the comment
that I made about, about Guinea

652
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,640
and about bulk sign, right?
Because when, you know, after

653
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:06,760
that acquisition, you know,
taking place, then you wind the

654
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:08,680
clock forward by maybe four or
five years.

655
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,920
And Rio had written off most of
it, right?

656
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,800
So I think everybody looked and
said it was a bad deal.

657
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,080
It was, it was a bad deal.
It was about 5.

658
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,080
They wrote off most of it.
Yeah.

659
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:19,600
But I think they did another
they wrote off.

660
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,160
I think they wrote it all off.
Did they?

661
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:23,640
Yeah, I I made the impression it
was actually.

662
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,080
At least, yeah, at least 2/3.
Yeah, yeah, it was a big, it was

663
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,080
a big write off, right.
But you can imagine what that

664
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:33,520
did inside Rio.
I mean, you've got iron ore

665
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,440
prices going crazy.
You've got a company that just,

666
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,520
you know, one of the better term
wasted a lot of money, you know,

667
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,400
share a lot of money on, on
this, this acquisition that had

668
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:47,880
gone terribly.
And so, and then I remember at

669
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,160
the time because I was, you
know, I was advising them that,

670
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,120
you know, we would put forward a
forecast for bauxite imports

671
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,840
into China, which was double
digit growth.

672
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,200
And they'd kind of look at it
and say, yeah, that's really

673
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,320
interesting.
Thanks very much.

674
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,960
And that's what you'd and they'd
kind of leave it at that because

675
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,639
it was very, very difficult for
the aluminium, you know,

676
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:17,320
business unit to to attract the
attract funds away from iron ore

677
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,360
from anything else, especially
after the disaster that was

678
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:25,199
alcant.
My, my view is that had that not

679
00:34:25,199 --> 00:34:29,120
happened that, you know, Rio is
incredibly well positioned to,

680
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:34,239
to, to build out WEIPA so that a
lot more bauxite from Australia

681
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,719
right now would be going into
China than that's coming from

682
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,199
Guinea, right?
That made it more difficult.

683
00:34:40,199 --> 00:34:42,120
Plus the, all of the
difficulties that go with just

684
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:46,360
approvals processes in Australia
make it incredibly difficult as

685
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:47,880
well.
But it could have just, you

686
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,400
know, the industry could have
just turned left instead of

687
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,320
right then.
So as a result, the Western

688
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:57,720
producers stand still, China
brings on its own internal

689
00:34:57,720 --> 00:35:02,840
capacity that depletes like
like, you know, Malaysia,

690
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,160
Indonesia fizzle.
Guinea is the new source.

691
00:35:05,720 --> 00:35:10,720
What's the status of of Guinea
supply into China today?

692
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:16,000
Between Guinea this year will do
about 100 million tonnes.

693
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,920
I'll do, I think it might do
115,000,000 tonnes of bauxite

694
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,200
into China this year.
Total imports this year will be

695
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,320
about 150 and between Guinea and
Australia you're probably about

696
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,160
95% of the total.
So all the rest of the kind of

697
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,360
rats and mice?
Where Where does the bauxite

698
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,440
come from in Australia?
That oh from wiper, from from

699
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,360
Rio and from Metro Metro.
Yeah.

700
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,760
WA here.
Alcoa did explore a little bit

701
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,760
here a few years back, but it's
hard, right?

702
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,400
Because it's, I mean, it's 30
three, 3233% alumina.

703
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,360
So there's a lot of stuff in
there that's not alumina that

704
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:50,680
you know, you're importing
choice.

705
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:52,120
It's good.
It's a blending kind of books

706
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:53,680
because it's got very low
silica.

707
00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:57,840
But you really need to have, you
know, a refinery like Worsley or

708
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:02,200
wager up built in China to, you
know, to to to make the most of

709
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:03,480
it.
And that's not going to happen.

710
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,320
Are there any constraints on the
supply out of out of Guinea for

711
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,360
any, any reason or like you
said, there's there's hundreds

712
00:36:11,720 --> 00:36:14,960
of years, but are there like are
there reasons to be trepidatious

713
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,120
about what can actually come out
of Guinea?

714
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,680
Yeah, I think they're starting
to emerge now.

715
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,600
I mean, now that we're up at
sort of 100 million tonnes plus,

716
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:31,560
written into most of the
concessions for bauxite

717
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,360
exporters from Guinea is the
requirement to build an

718
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,480
aluminium refinery.
Gotcha.

719
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:39,240
So the Ghanaian government,
right, it's a military

720
00:36:39,240 --> 00:36:43,320
government at the moment, right?
But they're very, they're

721
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:48,400
becoming more and more, I guess
I want to say aggressive, but

722
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:52,720
you know, they're the pressure
is is mounting on bauxite

723
00:36:52,720 --> 00:36:54,960
exporters in Guinea to build
aluminium refineries.

724
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,600
They want to do the Indo
playbook.

725
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,120
Well, you kind of you kind of
both is my view.

726
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,240
Why is that?
I mean, well, because then

727
00:37:03,240 --> 00:37:04,720
you've got too much aluminium
refining capacity.

728
00:37:04,720 --> 00:37:08,160
See what's happening in India in
in Indonesia right now is my

729
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,280
view.
We're going to see another 3 or

730
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:13,400
4 refineries built in Indonesia
between now and the in the end

731
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:19,400
of 2030.
So, you know, although it kind

732
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,200
of makes sense to build a, a
refinery close to the bulk site.

733
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,960
So it kind of makes sense in
Guinea, although they've got a,

734
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,760
they've got an energy problem to
solve.

735
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:28,720
You've got to do it when the
time's right.

736
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,320
And it seems to me now that the
time is right in Indonesia and

737
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,120
then at some point after that
because there's only so many

738
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,440
alumina refineries that
Indonesian bauxite will support

739
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,400
and then I think it's kind of
Guineas turn after that.

740
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:45,240
Yeah.
So that's a constraint you.

741
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,160
Don't want too much, too much
refining capacity at the same

742
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,000
time because.
Well, it'll just kill the price.

743
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,840
Yeah, refining margins.
And it's got to be in the right

744
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,960
part of the world, right?
There's kind of two mark the

745
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,560
Pacific and the Atlantic market.
So, you know, you build your

746
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,120
aluminium refineries in Guinea,
you're kind of feeding into the

747
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:04,040
Atlantic market that doesn't
might need them in the future,

748
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,360
not necessarily now.
What?

749
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,840
What's the state of the Russians
then, Russell?

750
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,960
What sort of scale do they
operate at?

751
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:13,400
In Guinea or in, well, I mean,
they're quite the biggest

752
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,640
producers of primary aluminium,
the biggest primary alum

753
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,480
producers.
And there was recently the ban,

754
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:21,800
I'm not sure how effective it
is.

755
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,720
Maybe you can expand on it was
an LMA ban that they couldn't

756
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,000
trade in in Russian.
Yeah.

757
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:33,480
Effective at all?
It's not, well, no, I think

758
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,120
there's there's there's some
sanctions, but there's also a

759
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:41,440
lot of a lot of companies are
self sanctioned when it comes to

760
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,400
dealing with the result.
So a lot of companies said,

761
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,080
well, we just won't take their
medal.

762
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,240
It's not illegal, but we just,
we just won't do it.

763
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,960
So.
Just go fire middle men then

764
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,000
like.
Well, it can, it can, it can it

765
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,640
can go fire middle men.
The thing about?

766
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,600
It's fungible.
Yeah, that's right.

767
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,720
It's difficult to, you know, to,
to, to keep it out.

768
00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:04,320
If you, if you, if you want it,
you can, you'll get it right.

769
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:08,080
But the thing about Russian
aluminium is that it's, you

770
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:11,240
know, it's green credentials
very, very good because it's all

771
00:39:11,240 --> 00:39:14,280
hydropower.
So you've got this conundrum,

772
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:15,720
right.
You've got, you know, people

773
00:39:15,720 --> 00:39:18,880
want, well, I want green metal.
Well, there's plenty of it for

774
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,000
Russell, but well, can you, can
you take it?

775
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,440
Can you not take it?
It's almost down to like a

776
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:27,520
company by or or consumer by
consumer decision of whether you

777
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,000
want to use that that meddler or
it's not.

778
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,040
The E but not the not the S.
That's right, That's right.

779
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,000
So, you know, it's yeah, they're
in a, they're in a tricky spot.

780
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,240
And of course, they lost the,
the, the big refinery in Ukraine

781
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:46,080
and they, and they lost, you
know, 700,000 odd tonnes of QIL

782
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,760
alumina.
So they've been out in the world

783
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,720
trying to source, you know,
3,000,000 tonnes of alumina to

784
00:39:53,720 --> 00:39:56,960
make up for what they've lost,
you know, since the, since the

785
00:39:57,000 --> 00:39:59,720
Ukraine conflict.
And most of that's come from

786
00:39:59,720 --> 00:40:02,480
China.
So to round out on sort of

787
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:07,240
supply and demand, recycling is
a pretty real thing.

788
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,880
You know, it goes well beyond a
lot of the other metals that we

789
00:40:10,920 --> 00:40:13,920
that we talk about.
Can you sort of expand upon kind

790
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,520
of percentage and size that
recycling plays in the aluminium

791
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,040
market?
I'll do my best.

792
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:25,080
I'm not a huge recycling expert,
but what I can tell you is that,

793
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:29,040
you know, post consumer scrap.
So I mean, most of the aluminium

794
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,080
that's been produced in the
world is still used in its first

795
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,160
application, right?
So, you know, scrap the

796
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,120
attractiveness of scrap now, of
course, because it's carbon

797
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,520
footprint is so small, like the
number is, you know that you'll

798
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,840
hear from most people is 5%
takes 5% of the energy to

799
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,440
recycle aluminium relative to to
primary production, right.

800
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,040
I don't quite buy that, but it's
not a bad, you know, it's close

801
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,000
enough because the problem with
recycling, I mean, you take

802
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,440
these cans, right, you recycle
them with a whole bunch of other

803
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,640
aluminium, all sorts of stuff
gets in there as well, usually

804
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,640
iron, which means you've got to
break it back with you've got to

805
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,800
alloy it with some pure metal as
well.

806
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,680
So it's not quite 5%, but it's
it's not a bad, it's not a bad

807
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,480
number.
So it's very attractive from

808
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:15,200
that perspective, given its
carbon footprint.

809
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:19,240
So you see a lot of companies
that are, you know, who are

810
00:41:19,240 --> 00:41:23,320
prepared to pay more for scrap
because it can get down, get

811
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:26,200
their carbon footprint down.
If you look at scrap rates,

812
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,720
recycle rates around the world,
they're all, you know, they're

813
00:41:28,720 --> 00:41:32,480
all fairly high.
Well, I mean, it varies country

814
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,000
to country, obviously, but the
one that's the laggard is China.

815
00:41:36,600 --> 00:41:40,120
China's recycling rates for
aluminium significantly lower

816
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,840
than the rest of the world for
what they consume, and they're

817
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,960
trying to change that.
Now you might have heard that

818
00:41:46,720 --> 00:41:50,480
you know China's got a a cap on
its primary aluminium smelting

819
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,240
capacity, 45,000,000 tonnes,
right?

820
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:54,040
Yeah, I'm keen to go deeper on
that as well.

821
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,280
Yeah, well, it's really
interesting because, you know,

822
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,680
in our view, you know, aluminium
demand just continues to, you

823
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,520
know, on its slow burn.
So where does the aluminium come

824
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:07,440
from?
It comes from recycle.

825
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,000
I mean, that's the China plan,
right, Is they actually increase

826
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:14,800
their their recycle rights so
they can feed into the into the

827
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,320
increasing demand rather than
building more smelters.

828
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:22,000
So yeah, recycle is the future
for aluminium for sure,

829
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,480
especially given the, you know,
the, the, the carbon footprint.

830
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,280
Well, if recycling's the future
for aluminium boys, I'd say this

831
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:34,400
fella here, Reece Patoni, He is
the future for earthworks and

832
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,440
knowledge.
Just look at him.

833
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:37,440
Across Australia.
Look at his face.

834
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,440
Does he look like he wants to
move dirt?

835
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,920
Dashing.
Oh Jesus Christ mate, I've got

836
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:50,400
something for you with races an
AEH as partnership with the

837
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,240
great Seamus Murphy for many
time exploration.

838
00:42:53,240 --> 00:42:58,160
Like it's not just clearing and
for bloody mining exploration,

839
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:01,400
dams or anything mate they could
get Seamus could get the

840
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:05,320
fieldies and the geos out there
to supervise the whole project

841
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:09,800
as a turn key earthworks and
haulage solution.

842
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,520
Is that?
Have you ever heard of that

843
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:12,760
before?
Never.

844
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,760
Normally you pitch ludicrous
propositions as 10K, but this is

845
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,200
a, This is actual.
And this is a true one.

846
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,960
I cannot believe it mate.
As I said site clear and dam

847
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:25,000
building post mining rehab,
rain, hail or cyclone.

848
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:27,640
He works through the whole thing
mate.

849
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,520
He even uses the cyclone's
energy to move to the freaking

850
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,800
dirt quicker.
But that is how good this guy

851
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:35,280
is.
Everyone else would be parked up

852
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:36,840
on the piss at the pub.
Not race.

853
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,240
Not Australian earthworks and
haulage.

854
00:43:39,240 --> 00:43:42,960
Maddie, you had me at 10 K Oh.
Jesus Christ, give him a bloody

855
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:47,480
bell for Christ's sake.
So why did China self impose

856
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,800
these alumina and aluminium
restrictions?

857
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,680
Yeah, that's a, that's a very
good question.

858
00:43:52,720 --> 00:43:57,440
There isn't why in there
actually isn't a cap on

859
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,480
refining.
It's kind of like a proxy cap.

860
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:02,360
If there's a, if there's a cap
on primary aluminium, there's

861
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,440
kind of a cap on alum because
there's nothing else you can do

862
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:08,480
with it, right.
So the 45,000,000 tonne cap was

863
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:13,400
bought in to stop alumina, to
stop primary aluminium smelters

864
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:16,920
being built because you know,
there was if you know that

865
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:21,240
period that that huge growth
period that I spoke about before

866
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:26,840
and the overcapacity that came
with it was becoming a problem.

867
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:32,960
And so the 45,000,000 tonne cap
was introduced to stop

868
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:38,480
refineries from being built to,
you know, to increase net

869
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,880
capacity.
What I mean by that is that if a

870
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,080
smelter closed somewhere, let's
say a smelter 200,000 tonnes

871
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:49,280
shut down, then that 200,000
tonnes of smelter capacity could

872
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,920
be like horse traded to another,
another province somewhere,

873
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,040
right?
So you could still build new

874
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,640
smelters, but you couldn't there
couldn't be a net increase.

875
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:04,160
And so you know the, the, the
purpose of that of the the cap

876
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:07,520
was to stop new smelting
capacity which.

877
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:11,120
You dampen the profitability of
of existing.

878
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:12,720
Yeah.
And I, I was getting out of

879
00:45:12,720 --> 00:45:15,240
hand, right.
Smelting capacity was growing

880
00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:19,760
faster than than demand.
So that that cap of 45,000,000

881
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:22,800
tonnes by the way, is going to
be hit any day.

882
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:26,600
I think we're, I think it's
about like 122,000 tonnes a day

883
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,120
and I think we're in like 120 or
something like that.

884
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:30,720
So we're not far away from it,
yeah.

885
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,840
We're at, because my
understanding is, you know,

886
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,840
Australia, for example, we mined
the bauxite and we have

887
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,560
refineries that turn that
bauxite into alumina, but we

888
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,320
don't do any smelting.
We do.

889
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:43,240
Yeah, we do.
Yeah.

890
00:45:43,240 --> 00:45:44,800
Yeah, we've got some.
Where's the smelter?

891
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,960
Well, it's Born Island Smelter
and time ago.

892
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:50,160
OK.
And Portland in in Vic.

893
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,680
Become a dickhead.
And, and also but, but place to

894
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:55,880
your first point though, right?
Yeah.

895
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,720
We just don't know much about
the industry.

896
00:45:58,720 --> 00:46:01,040
You it's hard to get, you know,
to how do you invent?

897
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,960
How do you play it?
Yeah, all those things you we've

898
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:06,040
had, you know, we've had we, we
closed the smelter in in

899
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,680
Victoria many, many years ago.
Point Henry in Geelong, yeah.

900
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:12,680
It's also a big smelter in New
Zealand, that's how many smelter

901
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,640
so.
But you dominate the smelting.

902
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:15,240
Oh, for sure.
Yeah.

903
00:46:15,240 --> 00:46:15,560
Yeah.
What?

904
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:19,520
What percentage are they?
They're about 6060% of the

905
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,840
world, roughly OK and Illuminas
not far behind.

906
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,280
The one in Rio made headlines
earlier this year, just signing

907
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,480
a new power deal, is that right?
So they could.

908
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:31,040
Get that?
I think.

909
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:32,040
Get that?
Locked in and then they could

910
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:33,600
stay open get.
Security, yeah.

911
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,120
Well, I mean, more recently,
Portland just did the same

912
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:37,480
thing.
Yeah, another, I think it was

913
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:42,360
450 megawatts or so, I think to
2034, something like that.

914
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:45,280
So I mean, smelting is about
electricity, right?

915
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,840
Yeah, one of the ways somebody
said to me very early in my

916
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,440
career, when you look at
aluminium, you look at an ingot

917
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,120
of aluminium, think of it as
coagulated electricity.

918
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:56,720
Explain.
That's what it is.

919
00:46:56,720 --> 00:47:00,960
I mean, you're pumping the, the
electrolysis process, you know,

920
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,720
is about, you know, breaking
the, the, the bonds open with

921
00:47:03,720 --> 00:47:06,960
electricity.
So you know, it's, it's, that's

922
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:12,280
what it is, right.
So, you know, it kind of changes

923
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,800
the way you you think about
aluminium, right, that that's

924
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:18,320
it's energy.
It's a representation of

925
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,120
expended energy.
That's right.

926
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:22,000
And there's an awful lot of
energy in it.

927
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:26,240
You know, aluminium is used like
powdered aluminium is used as a

928
00:47:26,240 --> 00:47:29,440
fuel as well because it has so
much energy in it.

929
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,920
I used to work at like smelters
in days gone.

930
00:47:33,920 --> 00:47:38,360
But you can cut this bit out in
smelters, right in days gone by,

931
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:42,760
right where you worked in a
smelter and there'd be, there'd

932
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,520
be a powder plant next to it,
right?

933
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,520
Aluminium powder plant.
So there was one in Belle Bay

934
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,960
and there was one I worked in
Anglesey in North Wales all the

935
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:53,840
time.
This little powder plant next.

936
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:57,520
So they would take molten metal
and then I would solidify it in

937
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:00,360
a way, you know, through like a
nozzle that would make it into a

938
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:04,840
powder as it, as it solidifier.
So you walk into the, you walk

939
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:06,840
into these buildings like
they're all the same around the

940
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,160
world.
You walk into the, the front

941
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:11,440
office of a, of a, you know, of
a aluminium powder plant.

942
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:13,720
And then you walk through the
front door and then you turn

943
00:48:13,720 --> 00:48:15,520
right, then you turn left and
then left and then right and

944
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,080
then right.
And it's like a maze, right?

945
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:21,000
And you finally make it to a lab
and then you go left.

946
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,400
It's a labyrinth.
And then you end up in the, you

947
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:25,320
know, in some, some person's
office.

948
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:27,920
And then he's talking about this
power.

949
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,160
I, you know, I pucked up the
courage instead of them.

950
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,360
Sorry, why did I have to walk
through a maze to get to your

951
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:35,400
office?
And they said, this guy said to

952
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:40,720
me, seriously, when there's an
explosion, then the energy is

953
00:48:40,720 --> 00:48:44,880
dissipated, you know, through
the corridors rather than just

954
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:49,240
blowing the officer like he
didn't say if he said when, when

955
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,920
no explosion.
Sorry, what am I doing here?

956
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:54,800
But that's energy.
It's the energy.

957
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:57,800
Now let me That's what it's used
for as a powder, as a, as a, as

958
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:01,680
an explosive, as a fuel.
I'd love to hear about energy.

959
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,720
Some of the other operations you
mentioned before we started

960
00:49:04,720 --> 00:49:07,480
recording in in Argentina.
You've had a spell in in

961
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,520
Northern Wales.
Yeah.

962
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:11,400
Oh, straight.
Yeah.

963
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:17,200
Well, I mean, I, I worked in, at
the smelter in, in North Wales

964
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,680
and, you know, I left that
smelter with a lot more than I

965
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:24,720
bargained for IEA wife.
And, and so and she's a Welsh

966
00:49:24,720 --> 00:49:28,960
speaker, a Welsh speaking wife.
So I had to, so I had to learn

967
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:32,520
how to speak Welsh.
But then I, which I do badly by

968
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,080
the way.
But then I, I ended up, you

969
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,760
know, I was invited to do some
work down at the Agua smelter

970
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:42,120
in, in Argentina.
And yeah, they speak Spanish and

971
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,800
you know, the place called Plato
Madrin, which is Welsh, Welsh

972
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:47,320
name.
And so they spoke Spanish and

973
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,520
Welsh.
Never thought my Welsh would

974
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:51,080
come in handy anywhere, but it
did.

975
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,800
So in Argentina 4.
Places, of all places,

976
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:55,000
Argentina.
That's right, yeah.

977
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,600
Yeah, and the bauxite there is
sourced.

978
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,760
Like, well, it's a smelter, so
it's so the alumni it's bringing

979
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,320
in alumina from, you know, from
wherever it can.

980
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,760
But yeah, the bauxite, the
bauxite it probably, you know,

981
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,360
the alumina could come from one
of probably Jamaica because

982
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,040
there are, you know, quite a few
refineries.

983
00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:16,360
And it's hydropowered.
For I'm not sure about how you

984
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,520
are probably.
Yeah, it was.

985
00:50:18,760 --> 00:50:20,760
I was in prayer.
It's a really well run smell.

986
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:28,040
What what with all of that, I
guess like historical context on

987
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:32,880
the the alumina aluminium box
like complex like where are we

988
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,920
today?
Well, that's a yeah, that's a

989
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,160
very good question.
I kind of come back to the to

990
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:43,080
the markets, right and then kind
of project that forward

991
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:46,160
aluminium for me, it's just
still on slow burn.

992
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:50,600
All of these different markets
that aluminium feeds into are

993
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:56,240
all growing around the world.
And so aluminium, you know, the

994
00:50:56,240 --> 00:50:59,480
demand for aluminium is just
like they just keep tracking

995
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,360
higher and higher and higher,
which means that we will need to

996
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,880
recycle a lot more, but it will
mean that we need to produce

997
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:08,880
more primary aluminium as well.
And, you know, we're kind of

998
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,480
looking out over the next sort
of five or ten years, you think,

999
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:12,920
well, where's that?
Where's the growth?

1000
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:14,640
Where's the smelting growth
going to come from?

1001
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:16,720
Because China's now got its cap,
right?

1002
00:51:16,840 --> 00:51:19,760
So they're done.
I don't think they'll change it.

1003
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,520
I think what they might change
is the thing about aluminium

1004
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:26,040
smelters is that they have a
history of capacity creep,

1005
00:51:27,440 --> 00:51:29,360
right?
Because you can, you know, over

1006
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:31,640
time, you know, if you look at
the, the, the, you know, the

1007
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:36,880
current that's used in these, it
smells 200 KA, 300 KA 400K, but

1008
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:38,880
they always manage to get go a
bit higher.

1009
00:51:39,680 --> 00:51:42,440
And so, you know, for the same
footprint, for the same smelter,

1010
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,440
you can actually produce a bit
more primary.

1011
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,600
I kind of look at the, you know,
the, the, the cap in China and

1012
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:52,720
think, well, I don't really
think it kind of fits the, the

1013
00:51:52,720 --> 00:51:55,800
purpose of not building any
smelters, right?

1014
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,880
To to, to be, to not improve
efficiency as well.

1015
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,400
Do you know what I mean?
I find it hard to believe that

1016
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,160
they would say, well, OK, you
can't improve your efficiency

1017
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:07,960
because we're going to cap you
at 45,000,000.

1018
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:09,520
So I think maybe you see some
creep.

1019
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:11,400
Existing ones to be to.
Be.

1020
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,200
Profitable, especially when.
They're worried about as

1021
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,520
efficient as efficient as
possible.

1022
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,920
Reminds me, by the way, just
coming back to Alcan, just for a

1023
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,480
moment.
Yeah, it stuck in my head.

1024
00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:24,840
I don't know who it was.
Somebody from Rio who said that

1025
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:29,120
within 18 months of the Alcan
transaction, China will be a net

1026
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:32,440
importer of primary aluminium.
Fuck.

1027
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,920
Never happened?
Yeah, never happened.

1028
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:39,120
They they drank the blade.
They, that's right.

1029
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,880
They, I mean they built, you
know, 20-30 million tonnes of

1030
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,560
smelting capacity themselves.
So it was great.

1031
00:52:46,560 --> 00:52:48,200
Sorry I'm off on a tangent,
David.

1032
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:49,720
That's amazing.
It is.

1033
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,520
So where we are today, China.
China will never, that will

1034
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:57,920
never change their I mean, but
it was a policy set yonks ago.

1035
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,280
Well, the 45 cap, yeah, not that
far.

1036
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,000
A few years back.
A few years back, yeah.

1037
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,200
Yeah, right.
But you're you're.

1038
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,840
I, I think what you, you know,
what we're seeing in China now

1039
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,520
in terms of investment into the
sector, it's all recycled.

1040
00:53:10,000 --> 00:53:11,640
OK.
And it's the systems that they

1041
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,480
need to put in place to collect
the recycle and get it back into

1042
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:17,000
the system.
So it's a very, very strong

1043
00:53:17,720 --> 00:53:20,720
emphasis on getting that up to
the rates of other countries.

1044
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:26,520
So, so China's smelting
capacity, let's let's assume you

1045
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,120
know, won't change for a while,
but demand is growing.

1046
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:33,680
So you kind of have to look rest
of the world, Guinea.

1047
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:35,760
Want.
It they want it.

1048
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:38,760
For a Lumina, they don't even
you know, it's always back to

1049
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,640
smelting, right?
I mean where the smelting, the

1050
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:44,040
smelting capacity goes, where
you've got low cost electricity.

1051
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:46,720
So you know, one of the hot
spots in the world is obviously

1052
00:53:46,720 --> 00:53:49,920
the Middle East big produces a
primary aluminium, not alumina

1053
00:53:50,400 --> 00:53:51,960
primary aluminium.
And I think we'll see more

1054
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:56,440
capacity going to the Middle
East based on gas, right,

1055
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,040
because it's got a a lower
carbon footprint than coal.

1056
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:03,440
It's still not net 0, but it's.
Lower and they're importing

1057
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:05,920
alumina from wherever.
All over the place.

1058
00:54:06,120 --> 00:54:09,160
Australia, yeah, a lot of the
WA, a lot of the, the, the

1059
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:10,680
alumina from here goes to the
Middle East.

1060
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,000
That's interesting.
Africa and to the Middle East,

1061
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,560
yeah, yeah.
So I think you see more smelting

1062
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:18,120
capacity in the Middle East.
You might see more smelting

1063
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,800
capacity in Southeast Asia.
As well they, they do have an

1064
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:24,280
aggressive policy to build out,
you know, a big industrial

1065
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:25,600
sector there right.
Like, I mean we've.

1066
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,480
In the Middle East, Yeah, Well,
especially where it's, I mean,

1067
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,240
you know, they, they've been
looking to to, you know, change

1068
00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:34,760
the, you know, the means by
which they generate wealth for

1069
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:36,560
for quite a while.
But they've been active in the

1070
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,200
aluminium ministry for a long,
long time.

1071
00:54:38,720 --> 00:54:41,840
Their first smelters went into
the into the Middle East, went

1072
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:42,920
down.
When I started in the

1073
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:44,400
industries, that was decades
ago.

1074
00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:49,440
Where are the marginal bauxite
tonnes coming from?

1075
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:54,640
Well into China, so it's a China
market, remember so and remember

1076
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:57,840
also because now you guys know a
lot about books, I right.

1077
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:00,000
So know that the whole idea of
value and use, when you look at

1078
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,360
these samples, see the whole
idea of value and use is

1079
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:06,720
absolutely critical.
Whether it's 33% alumina from WA

1080
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:13,640
or 45 from from Guinea or 55
from within China, you've got to

1081
00:55:13,720 --> 00:55:17,280
do that value and use
calculation, right to see who's

1082
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,760
sitting at the margin on a value
and use adjusted basis and on

1083
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,160
our analysis, right.
Now on that value and use

1084
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:25,400
adjusted basis, so it's
basically like, yeah, how how

1085
00:55:25,400 --> 00:55:29,040
many units of aluminium can you
actually or alumina or alumina

1086
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,000
can you actually?
Think of it this way, right?

1087
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,960
If I've got a, if I've got a
refinery sitting in China,

1088
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:37,600
right, and I've got some choice,
not a lot of choice because now

1089
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:39,240
you know how a refinery works,
right?

1090
00:55:39,240 --> 00:55:41,440
So you want to keep the, the
variation down.

1091
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:44,800
But if I've got the choice of,
of, of processing a book site

1092
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:51,400
that comes from Guinea or from
say Brazil or from just say

1093
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:56,360
Malaysia, for example, right
now, am I better off paying 75

1094
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:59,760
bucks for the book site from
Guinea or am I better off paying

1095
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:04,400
50 for the Malaysian book site
Now the answer is probably 70

1096
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:07,120
from Guinea because it's that
value and use adjustment.

1097
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:11,000
It's the fact that you've got
the high available alumina,

1098
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:14,760
you've got low reacting silica
in the in the Ghanaian bauxite.

1099
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:17,000
So you're consuming less caustic
soda.

1100
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,800
You're you know, you're
dissolving, you know at a lower

1101
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:21,720
temperature.
So your energy costs are lower.

1102
00:56:22,040 --> 00:56:24,240
And so you've got to take all of
these things into consideration

1103
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:26,640
and then bring it back to the
cost curve right then go well,

1104
00:56:26,760 --> 00:56:29,800
OK, on a value when you
suggested basis who is sitting

1105
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,560
in the margin and on our
analysis right now, it's

1106
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:34,000
actually some of the Ghanaian
the low lower grade Ghanaian

1107
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:34,680
producers.
So.

1108
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:38,880
Every every refiner has a
different cost curve if they're

1109
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:40,880
if they're looking to source
seaborne.

1110
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:44,840
Every refiner has a different
cost to produce alumina.

1111
00:56:45,240 --> 00:56:48,320
Yeah, absolutely.
Yeah, Hugely different based on

1112
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:50,480
the bauxite that they're
processing and the amount of

1113
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,240
cost that they're consuming and
the amount of energy.

1114
00:56:52,240 --> 00:56:56,120
Because remember, if you're, you
know, if you're dissolving at

1115
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:02,480
120 or 130° versus dissolving it
to 80, then your energy loads

1116
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:06,360
are very different, but you're
getting more alumina, right?

1117
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:11,040
Because typically if you are,
you know, if you're, you know,

1118
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:13,960
if you've got like a high
temperature type of books, I

1119
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:15,280
think it's got more alumina in
it.

1120
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:16,720
Otherwise you wouldn't bother
chasing it.

1121
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,600
So, you know, there's a lot of,
there's a, there's a lot of

1122
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:23,720
moving parts to a, you know, to
understanding how that that cost

1123
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:27,680
curve kind of fits together.
And to just to touch on the, the

1124
00:57:27,680 --> 00:57:31,120
contracts, so how the dealers
are negotiated between the, the

1125
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:36,200
books that producers and the
refiners, are we talking

1126
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:40,400
contracts that'll be signed for
a few years at a time and the,

1127
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:44,040
and the pricing dynamics it will
sort of be measured against

1128
00:57:44,040 --> 00:57:46,000
spot.
It takes a while to react.

1129
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,800
What are the sort of
characteristics of a contract?

1130
00:57:49,000 --> 00:57:53,520
It's well, first of all, you
have to slice out of that the

1131
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,320
all of the vertically integrated
production because it's just

1132
00:57:56,320 --> 00:58:00,160
coming across, you know, here's
my books like my mind mouth, the

1133
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,360
refinery model.
So we'll slice all that out of

1134
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:04,040
the way, right, because that
that happens.

1135
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:06,720
Then the next layer is long term
contracts.

1136
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,040
So you might see, you know,
books on this going from from

1137
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,960
Queensland into China.
Some of it can be like on a 10

1138
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:15,400
year contract.
Some of the stuff that can come

1139
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:18,200
from Guinea can be on multiple
year contracts as well.

1140
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:22,440
And those prices will be
bilaterally negotiated pretty

1141
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,680
much.
With like floors and ceilings or

1142
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:28,120
is there a?
Yeah, there's, but there's also

1143
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:31,080
there's bonuses and penalties
around grade, all the sort of

1144
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,880
stuff that you expect, right?
I see.

1145
00:58:33,040 --> 00:58:35,680
Yeah.
But about, I don't know, about

1146
00:58:35,680 --> 00:58:38,920
10 years ago we kind of looked
at it and said we can see it

1147
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,920
moving to an index at some
point.

1148
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:44,560
It will move to index pricing.
But the barrier has always been

1149
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:46,880
the whole idea of value on uses
because they, you know, these

1150
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,080
books sites that vary so much in
grades.

1151
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,080
But now we're starting to see
that happen.

1152
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:56,120
You know, Rio's been out to
tender for bauxite in the past

1153
00:58:56,120 --> 00:58:57,360
year or so.
They've, I think they've put out

1154
00:58:57,360 --> 00:59:00,760
two or three tenders for bauxite
from you know, from Govan, from

1155
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,640
Queensland, from from Guinea as
well.

1156
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:08,120
So I think we're now at the
point where indexes will start

1157
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:12,160
to play a role in setting the
price some, some spot deals, I

1158
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,320
mean and then that will flow
through to the longer term

1159
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,920
contracts.
And and that that's an index

1160
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,280
that's adjusted based on the
value and use of.

1161
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:22,160
Well, we do we.
So we publish 2 indexes at the

1162
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:23,840
moment.
We publish a Guinea, what we

1163
00:59:23,840 --> 00:59:26,720
call the G Bix index, which is a
standard grade of Guinea and

1164
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:32,960
bauxite.
So 45% total alumina and 3% I

1165
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,920
think total silica.
And so you know, you can take

1166
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:39,440
that as your reference point
sort of like 60 to 65, yeah,

1167
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:41,480
same sort of thing.
And then you would just sort of

1168
00:59:41,480 --> 00:59:43,880
bonuses, penalties, you know, up
and down from that.

1169
00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:46,520
And we do the same for an
Australian book site as well.

1170
00:59:47,200 --> 00:59:50,200
So yeah, I think with time now
we'll we'll start to get some

1171
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:51,720
traction on it.
It'll find its way in the

1172
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:54,160
contracts.
Very interesting.

1173
00:59:54,320 --> 00:59:59,360
Will the will the the like?
There's not many.

1174
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:04,000
Producers of sort of seaborne
oxalate, for all intents and

1175
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:07,680
purposes, will that change?
Do you think it becomes more

1176
01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:11,280
fragmented or do you think there
are just like constraints why

1177
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,720
that's a challenge proposition
in the first place?

1178
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:18,800
Look, you know it, I think it
depends on what happens in

1179
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:22,840
Guinea to a, to a large extent.
I mean, Guinea now you know,

1180
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:26,320
115,000,000 tonnes worth.
The number is, it's, it's almost

1181
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,040
as if that's, I mean, you know,
Chinese, China's aluminium

1182
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:34,560
industry is addicted to getting
in bauxite, right?

1183
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:37,920
And where else can you get it
from?

1184
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:42,000
Because you know, it's, if it's
an addiction, I mean, I mean, I

1185
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:43,680
think you know, the Chinese have
come out themselves.

1186
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:45,800
Some refiners have come out in
the past, I don't know, six

1187
01:00:45,800 --> 01:00:47,680
months or so and said we need to
diversify.

1188
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,440
But where can you get it from?
You can get some from Australia,

1189
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,400
but getting new mines started in
Australia is just takes such a

1190
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,200
long time.
So it's hard.

1191
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:01,000
And you know, does Australia
want to be in bauxite mining?

1192
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:02,760
I mean, I think that's an open
question at the moment.

1193
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:06,480
I can't understand why it's an
open question, but it is.

1194
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:08,120
Where else in the world can you
go?

1195
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,280
It's there's just not a lot of
options out there.

1196
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,480
Vietnam is has got really great
bauxite, but they have a

1197
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:17,920
minerals export ban, effectively
a minerals export ban as well.

1198
01:01:18,600 --> 01:01:21,560
They can't get it from there.
But China has been out like all

1199
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:24,240
these crazy countries that
they've been out trying to find

1200
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:28,200
and source large volumes of
bauxite from now I mentioned

1201
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:32,520
Jamaica earlier.
I mean Jamaican, Jamaican

1202
01:01:32,520 --> 01:01:34,240
bauxite.
If I had a, if I had a like a

1203
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:39,080
jar of Jamaican bauxite, it
would be dust, right?

1204
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:43,240
And it would be 17% moisture.
And then and if you dropped it

1205
01:01:43,240 --> 01:01:46,400
below 17% moisture, it'll dust.
And so when you load a vessel

1206
01:01:46,840 --> 01:01:50,680
which it comes out of the ground
25% right moisture, then it's

1207
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:55,480
it's tried.
And so and if you try to load it

1208
01:01:55,480 --> 01:01:59,400
onto a vessel less than about 7
and it just I mean massive

1209
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,240
plumes of of bulk sites.
Actually problematic.

1210
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:06,240
Yeah, the first time a bulk side
vessel went to China with

1211
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:08,200
Jamaican bulk site, right?
Yeah.

1212
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:11,960
When they had started unloading
it at Qingdao Port, they

1213
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,760
basically shut the port down
because everybody in the

1214
01:02:14,760 --> 01:02:17,080
neighbourhood complained that
all their body washing was

1215
01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:20,840
turning orange because there
were just these massive plumes

1216
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:23,880
of, you know, of books like dust
is they, they picked up, you

1217
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:25,680
know, they're picking it up with
grabs and just dropping it on

1218
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:28,640
the on the port, right.
It's just all these poems.

1219
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,280
This guy, I remember this guy
rang me and said, this is crazy.

1220
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,800
They've had to shut down the
whole of Qingdao port because

1221
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,840
this, you know, this box I'm
unloading is terrible.

1222
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:40,680
And then, you know, two or three
days later, the same guy called

1223
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:43,360
me and then he started talking
about something completely

1224
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:44,800
different.
I can't remember what he said.

1225
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:47,720
And I said to him, sorry, just
go back to the what what

1226
01:02:47,720 --> 01:02:50,800
happened at Qingdao?
He said, oh, no, no, they solved

1227
01:02:50,800 --> 01:02:51,960
that problem.
What they do.

1228
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:52,960
He said, oh, they did it at
night.

1229
01:02:52,960 --> 01:02:58,240
Yeah, he says, but when I mean,
when that stuff made it to the

1230
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:00,880
refinery, right?
The, the, and, you know, you can

1231
01:03:00,880 --> 01:03:03,480
imagine how much got lost in the
waggons because it went inland,

1232
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:05,640
right?
So when it finally got there, I

1233
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:08,440
mean, I'm, I'm, I'm going to
paraphrase the refinery manager

1234
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:09,960
here.
He basically said, how many of

1235
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:13,040
these, how many boatloads of
this stuff did you buy?

1236
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:16,000
They said, I don't know, 3 or 4.
And he said, well, I don't care

1237
01:03:16,000 --> 01:03:18,720
what you do with the other two
or three, but don't bring them

1238
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:22,920
to my refinery because it's just
so difficult to handle.

1239
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:26,560
You don't have the handling
system set up for dust, you

1240
01:03:26,560 --> 01:03:29,400
know, because that fine, right?
I mean, the, the the refineries

1241
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:33,240
that traded Jamaican bauxite
have got no grinding circuit.

1242
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:36,040
You don't need it.
All right.

1243
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:38,040
So you can imagine that if they
want to try and take bauxite

1244
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:39,880
from somewhere else, they're
going to install the grinding

1245
01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:41,160
circuit.
That's.

1246
01:03:41,160 --> 01:03:42,800
Crazy.
It's a great story.

1247
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:44,160
I think it's in the world for
sale.

1248
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:48,720
And I think Long story short,
Mark Rich, Mark Rich and Co,

1249
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:54,160
Glencore negotiate a deal to
have the off take to all of

1250
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:58,800
Jamaica's bauxite because the
government has run out of money,

1251
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:01,160
if I remember it right.
And they call Mark Rich at two

1252
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:03,840
or three in the morning and he
transfers the money that the

1253
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,880
government needs by the next day
or whatever, he signs a 10 or 20

1254
01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:09,960
or 30 year deal.
Yeah, amazing.

1255
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:13,000
That's the good old days, Yeah,
You need to talk.

1256
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:14,720
If nobody's told you before, you
need to.

1257
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:16,120
Have you heard of a guy called
Jim Lennon?

1258
01:04:16,760 --> 01:04:18,040
Yes.
Macquarie, Macquarie.

1259
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:20,320
Macquarie Yeah, yeah.
I mean, Jim is one of the

1260
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,240
legends of, of, of our industry.
Yeah, but but he he knows Dick,

1261
01:04:24,240 --> 01:04:25,760
but he was a mate of Mark
Richards.

1262
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:27,640
Yeah, right.
Jim.

1263
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,200
So yes.
Jim, that'd be a fascinating.

1264
01:04:30,200 --> 01:04:31,280
Conversation.
Yeah.

1265
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:33,160
Hell of a gentleman, Jim.
Yeah.

1266
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:37,800
I think we should talk a bit
about WA specifically in the,

1267
01:04:37,960 --> 01:04:42,240
the challenges that the industry
has kind of faced in in recent

1268
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:44,880
times like you, like you
outlined, we've got a long

1269
01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:49,200
history with oxide and alumina
refineries.

1270
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:53,440
So, but the the challenges have
sort of really come to the fore

1271
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:57,400
in the in the recent months
years so, so.

1272
01:04:57,560 --> 01:04:59,400
Yeah.
I mean, I remember it's the

1273
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:01,720
start of this year.
It was like really early January

1274
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:06,480
where Alcoa announced our
kitailing Kwinana.

1275
01:05:07,040 --> 01:05:09,080
Yes.
January I think.

1276
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:15,760
And then I mean that then the a
whack deal kind of ended up

1277
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:17,480
going through and all of a
sudden.

1278
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:20,920
See.
Alcohol is this even more kind

1279
01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:24,000
of you know distant company in
some ways and then and then S 32

1280
01:05:24,800 --> 01:05:26,120
faced their.
Right.

1281
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:29,360
It's right down at Worsley in
June, July.

1282
01:05:29,360 --> 01:05:32,640
So how have you sort of seen
that the challenges, you know,

1283
01:05:32,640 --> 01:05:35,160
positioned from outside the
state, but we've sort of deep

1284
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:41,000
into 3 expertise?
Concerning I think would be the

1285
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:43,560
word ideas.
I mean you, you know these,

1286
01:05:44,240 --> 01:05:46,840
these refineries with the
exception of Quinana, I mean

1287
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:50,160
Quinana's closed and and it was
a high cost refinery.

1288
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:55,080
So you'd expect it for the for
for Alco to take that decision

1289
01:05:55,080 --> 01:05:58,440
at some point my rational
economic decision in my view,

1290
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:04,240
the other three refineries here
are all on our assessment Q1

1291
01:06:04,840 --> 01:06:09,640
right, alumina producing.
The other three Worsley.

1292
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:14,040
Wager up, Pinjara.
And the latter 2 are both Alcoa.

1293
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:15,520
Yeah.
And Worsley S 32.

1294
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:16,280
Gotcha.
Yeah.

1295
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:24,320
So they're all low cost, you
know, Q1 refineries, but they

1296
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:27,760
find themselves in this, you
know, this odd position where

1297
01:06:27,920 --> 01:06:32,000
they're accessing the bulk site
that they need to remain Q1

1298
01:06:32,000 --> 01:06:35,360
producers is becoming more and
more difficult for them.

1299
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:40,720
And as they do, then you know,
what do they do?

1300
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,360
Well, you know, as you're going
through the process of, you

1301
01:06:43,360 --> 01:06:47,960
know, of, you know, compliance
and, and licencing and so forth

1302
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:51,440
to, to shift your mind to
different places, which they've

1303
01:06:51,440 --> 01:06:53,000
known they've needed to do for a
long time.

1304
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:58,080
All right, that as that time
gets extended, then you've got

1305
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,600
to do something.
You can't just shut the

1306
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:02,280
refineries.
Refineries don't work that you

1307
01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:04,400
shut the refinery.
That costs you a lot of a lot of

1308
01:07:04,400 --> 01:07:06,520
money you don't want to shut.
So what do you do?

1309
01:07:06,520 --> 01:07:09,640
Well, you have to go back to
where you mined it before and

1310
01:07:09,640 --> 01:07:14,600
where you've where you've spent
a lot of money to kind of

1311
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:17,800
rejuvenate and.
Rehab and everything.

1312
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:19,840
And rehab.
Dig it up.

1313
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:26,520
So, so all right to spell that
out the, the, the the political

1314
01:07:26,520 --> 01:07:31,240
situation is 1 where the the
environmental permitting has

1315
01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:35,520
been so restrictive or or.
Well, tedious.

1316
01:07:35,520 --> 01:07:40,080
Tedious and and and unclear.
That they don't have approval to

1317
01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:44,000
necessarily mine where they
where it makes sense to mine or

1318
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:48,000
yeah, because there's maybe
unnecessary delays.

1319
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:51,480
Yeah.
Well, I mean, I, I would call

1320
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,920
them unnecessary delays in that
if the, you know, if the, if

1321
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,960
the, if the process was well
documented and the process was

1322
01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:03,080
followed, then it would be clear
and you would know, you know how

1323
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,560
long it's going to take and you
can plan accordingly.

1324
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:11,240
Remember, these are assets that
you know, that, that they need

1325
01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:15,840
to run for, for decades, not the
next, you know, five years or

1326
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:17,359
so.
They've got a plan for decades,

1327
01:08:17,359 --> 01:08:19,600
especially if they're going to,
you know, transition to sort of

1328
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:23,040
net 0 by 2050, right?
They, they require massive

1329
01:08:23,040 --> 01:08:24,800
investment.
So you need clarity.

1330
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:28,840
You need clarity about, you
know, oxide supply and what

1331
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:32,399
that's going to be and, and, and
what impact that's going to have

1332
01:08:32,399 --> 01:08:36,000
on the, on the refinery.
And so, you know, they find

1333
01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:39,640
themselves in a situation where
with that, that that process is

1334
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:44,920
not clear, what they have to do
to satisfy the requirements is

1335
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:50,840
changing sort of on the fly.
So you still have to keep the

1336
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:54,080
refinery running.
So, you know, what do you do?

1337
01:08:54,160 --> 01:08:56,960
You have to feed in bauxite
that's of lower grade and just,

1338
01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:01,200
you know, you just kind of March
up the cost curve as a result

1339
01:09:01,240 --> 01:09:04,720
because now you're treating, you
know, bauxite that's probably

1340
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:06,560
got a grade that starts with A2
and not a three.

1341
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:10,600
And that just has an immediate
impact on on costs.

1342
01:09:10,600 --> 01:09:14,600
And that, you know, that brings
into question the yeah, you

1343
01:09:14,600 --> 01:09:17,960
know, the the industry.
And all like you know both of W

1344
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:20,040
as miners are in a a similar
predicament.

1345
01:09:20,960 --> 01:09:23,399
In Yeah, yeah, I think so.
I mean, for different reasons.

1346
01:09:23,399 --> 01:09:26,680
They're not, you know, they've.
I I think when you look at

1347
01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:30,120
what's actually happened, nobody
comes out of it sort of smelling

1348
01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:33,960
of roses.
Yeah, but they're in a tough

1349
01:09:34,080 --> 01:09:38,319
spot.
I mean, the Q1, the Q1, for what

1350
01:09:38,319 --> 01:09:40,439
reasons is it?
Is it the quality of the box

1351
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,080
that they might have, but also
that the energy cost is quite

1352
01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:45,600
low here because of our domestic
gas reservation?

1353
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:46,760
Well, it's all of those things.
Yeah.

1354
01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:49,120
I mean, remember, that's that,
you know, the bauxite grade is

1355
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:49,800
low.
Yeah.

1356
01:09:49,800 --> 01:09:54,440
It's only sort of meant to be
sort of 3233% available alumina.

1357
01:09:54,440 --> 01:09:57,520
So excuse me on a world stand.
That's pretty low.

1358
01:09:57,720 --> 01:09:59,080
Yeah.
There's no silica.

1359
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:01,320
Yeah, I mean, there's sand, but
you can take that out.

1360
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:03,480
But there's no reacting silica.
It's not much clay.

1361
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:07,040
So you're not you're not
consuming much caustic soda and

1362
01:10:07,040 --> 01:10:09,440
because Gibbs are it's low
energy.

1363
01:10:10,480 --> 01:10:12,520
So it's a low it's a low
temperature refinery.

1364
01:10:12,960 --> 01:10:15,840
So you tick a lot of boxes there
and then they will managed

1365
01:10:16,120 --> 01:10:19,120
refineries as well.
So you know, that's why they

1366
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:20,440
that's why they're sitting in
Q1.

1367
01:10:20,720 --> 01:10:22,960
There's there's also the
challenge that that energy

1368
01:10:22,960 --> 01:10:27,000
component, albeit maybe lower
than some other refineries will

1369
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:30,680
tick up in time given the
domestic gas policy and other

1370
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:32,640
sort of challenges we've faced
as well.

1371
01:10:32,720 --> 01:10:34,920
Yeah, it's true.
And I mean they've got to,

1372
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,000
they've got to face that, got to
face, you know, converting their

1373
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:41,400
boilers to to, you know,
renewables as well.

1374
01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:46,320
I mean, it's cost and it pushes
the, you know, pushes the the

1375
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:51,480
cash cost up, but you need line
of sight on your future to be

1376
01:10:51,480 --> 01:10:52,920
able to make those sorts of
investments.

1377
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:54,640
You need to know that you're
going to be doing this for the

1378
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:56,640
next 20 or 30 years, not the
next 5.

1379
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:59,240
As Maddie would say, just Chuck
an SMR in it collie mate.

1380
01:11:01,120 --> 01:11:07,000
Get a reactor going.
So, so the the key aspect of

1381
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:13,200
this then is does our government
here, WA and and Australia

1382
01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:17,920
understand that?
Are they, you know, do they

1383
01:11:17,920 --> 01:11:20,400
understand that the challenges
that the industry is kind of

1384
01:11:20,400 --> 01:11:22,040
facing?
Do you have any insight on that?

1385
01:11:22,040 --> 01:11:23,480
Do you?
Have a on that.

1386
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:27,000
I mean from our experience and
you know, some of the work that

1387
01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:29,280
we've done for the, you know,
for the Australian Aluminium

1388
01:11:29,280 --> 01:11:31,600
Council would suggest to me that
they don't.

1389
01:11:32,240 --> 01:11:35,120
You do get the feeling as sort
of policy on the run here,

1390
01:11:35,440 --> 01:11:38,200
especially when you look at it
through the the lens of critical

1391
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:41,680
minerals because you know in in
Australia, we don't consider

1392
01:11:41,840 --> 01:11:44,240
bauxite, aluminium, prime
aluminium as critical minerals,

1393
01:11:45,080 --> 01:11:51,120
but US does and the the EU does,
but we don't it is it's odd

1394
01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:53,000
because.
But the reason I think they give

1395
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:55,200
is because of the scale of the
operation here.

1396
01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:58,000
Yeah, and and because.
Our own, yeah, our own supply

1397
01:11:58,000 --> 01:12:00,120
means that when we don't,
that's.

1398
01:12:00,720 --> 01:12:03,520
And our supply chain?
I mean, it's fucking critical

1399
01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:06,280
anyway.
Met call is fucking critical

1400
01:12:06,280 --> 01:12:07,280
anyway.
Easy, easy.

1401
01:12:09,320 --> 01:12:12,080
But I mean, I, I agree.
I mean, I think it it should be,

1402
01:12:12,080 --> 01:12:15,240
it should be a critical and that
kind of changes the approach,

1403
01:12:15,240 --> 01:12:18,640
changes the rules a little bit
for for you know, the aluminium

1404
01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:21,400
upstream aluminium place.
And I think that it should be.

1405
01:12:21,600 --> 01:12:25,000
I think we should be taking the
same approach as other similar

1406
01:12:25,000 --> 01:12:27,160
sort of countries.
How about in in Queensland?

1407
01:12:27,160 --> 01:12:29,560
What's the we hear much more of
the WA situation?

1408
01:12:29,560 --> 01:12:33,040
What's the picture like there?
I mean, it's a little, I mean

1409
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:38,560
the refineries in, in
Queensland, I mean they're

1410
01:12:38,560 --> 01:12:39,800
processing a different bulk
side.

1411
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,960
It's a high temperature.
So their costs you would expect

1412
01:12:41,960 --> 01:12:44,040
to be a little bit higher, the
bulk side's high grade.

1413
01:12:44,040 --> 01:12:47,400
But you know, if you take UAL as
an example, it's a reasonably

1414
01:12:47,400 --> 01:12:51,440
old refinery relative to other
refineries around the place, so

1415
01:12:51,440 --> 01:12:53,120
that you'd expect the costs to
be a bit higher.

1416
01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:57,320
But they still come across the
same, you know, issues in terms

1417
01:12:57,320 --> 01:13:02,760
of, you know, government
understanding or, you know,

1418
01:13:02,840 --> 01:13:04,680
government support of the
industry.

1419
01:13:04,720 --> 01:13:09,400
It's, it lacks just as much in
Queensland as it does in W.

1420
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:10,240
I.
I mean, I think if you had the

1421
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,640
guys from Glencore City here
have got their, they've got

1422
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:15,880
their foot on the Arakun Bauxite
export project.

1423
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:19,520
I would say that, you know, the
requirements for them to get to,

1424
01:13:19,600 --> 01:13:23,960
to permitting and licencing are
just so cumbersome that it's

1425
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:25,200
tight.
You know, it's taken them years

1426
01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:27,520
to to get to where they are and
there's still no guarantee that

1427
01:13:27,520 --> 01:13:31,000
project will go ahead.
So, you know, they're suffering

1428
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:34,440
similar sort of issues.
I think we should paint a bit

1429
01:13:34,440 --> 01:13:37,760
more of a picture as well
because I think we could

1430
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:40,400
probably come across as being a
bit biassed.

1431
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:43,280
You know, we're a mining kind of
podcast and we're, you know,

1432
01:13:43,280 --> 01:13:45,320
probably by default more pro
mining.

1433
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:48,760
Like to think we understand or
want to hear both sides of the

1434
01:13:49,440 --> 01:13:53,680
the argument but there needs to
be a more nuanced conversation

1435
01:13:53,680 --> 01:13:59,520
here because the ramifications
of the refineries not operating

1436
01:13:59,520 --> 01:14:04,480
in WA is that in a growing
aluminium market they it will

1437
01:14:04,480 --> 01:14:06,920
happen somewhere else.
Around, without doubt.

1438
01:14:07,440 --> 01:14:10,120
And it will happen somewhere
where there are far worse

1439
01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:12,000
environmental standards, worse
emissions.

1440
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:15,920
Well, less certainly, yeah,
yeah, I mean if the refineries,

1441
01:14:16,320 --> 01:14:18,560
if it, if it, you know, you
would hope it would never come

1442
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:20,440
to that.
But you know, if we lost more

1443
01:14:20,440 --> 01:14:23,680
refining capacity in Australia,
the world needs it.

1444
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:26,800
So where's it going to migrate
to?

1445
01:14:27,080 --> 01:14:29,800
And you know the, the, the
outstanding candidate is

1446
01:14:29,840 --> 01:14:33,000
Indonesia.
So I would expect that we would

1447
01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:36,840
see even more capacity go into
Indonesia than what we're

1448
01:14:36,840 --> 01:14:40,080
already forecasting should
Australia's refineries, you

1449
01:14:41,160 --> 01:14:42,120
know, closed down.
It's.

1450
01:14:42,640 --> 01:14:46,520
Such a, it's such a, a kind of
chilling thought in some ways,

1451
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:51,800
like we've just watched in real
time in the last, call it 18

1452
01:14:51,800 --> 01:14:58,800
months, every nickel producer in
Australia just like go broke or,

1453
01:14:59,080 --> 01:15:01,680
or go into care maintenance,
with the exception of like 1

1454
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:05,840
mine, an entire downstream kind
of component of that industry

1455
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:10,920
completely obliterated to.
And then OK, and where's what's

1456
01:15:10,920 --> 01:15:13,200
what's happened in Indonesia's
rapid?

1457
01:15:13,280 --> 01:15:18,560
Like Indonesian policy is
translated into the, the, the

1458
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:21,560
build out of the downstream.
And that also facilitated, you

1459
01:15:21,560 --> 01:15:24,320
know, the the upstream expansion
to feed that downstream industry

1460
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:26,520
as well.
But there's a huge caveat here

1461
01:15:26,520 --> 01:15:30,720
in that we can be more cost
effective when it comes to this

1462
01:15:30,720 --> 01:15:33,560
group of commodities as as
opposed to nickel where we set

1463
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:36,520
higher on the cost curve and it
wasn't economic.

1464
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:38,520
That's true.
We have the ability to be in a

1465
01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:42,120
position here where we're lower
on the cost curve as well as

1466
01:15:42,400 --> 01:15:48,560
reducing a end commodity that is
of lower total emissions that's.

1467
01:15:48,600 --> 01:15:49,800
Right.
I mean, that's the irony here.

1468
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:51,320
We should be building
refineries, not shutting them

1469
01:15:51,320 --> 01:15:55,920
down, especially in WA, 100%
that's what we should be doing.

1470
01:15:56,000 --> 01:16:00,520
And we can't have the view that
if we drop the aggregate or the

1471
01:16:00,520 --> 01:16:04,000
sort of total Australian
emissions that it's a good thing

1472
01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:07,520
for the world because they just
go overseas and they go overseas

1473
01:16:07,520 --> 01:16:11,200
at potentially a multiple.
The world will, the world needs

1474
01:16:11,200 --> 01:16:13,520
what we're producing.
We don't produce it.

1475
01:16:13,520 --> 01:16:16,720
The world will produce it
somewhere else without a doubt.

1476
01:16:17,720 --> 01:16:23,240
So that's, you know, it's now is
a pretty important time I think

1477
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,640
from a, from a policy
perspective to get it right and

1478
01:16:26,640 --> 01:16:30,480
set it and let the industry,
well from my perspective, let it

1479
01:16:30,480 --> 01:16:32,400
expand.
This isn't just an Australian

1480
01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:34,520
problem.
I think I cannot.

1481
01:16:34,600 --> 01:16:38,480
I know there's the Australian
context, but yeah, I think I

1482
01:16:38,480 --> 01:16:40,840
think broadly there's, there's
a, there's a lot, there's a,

1483
01:16:40,880 --> 01:16:43,240
there's a lot of this, there's a
lot of this in the US There's

1484
01:16:43,240 --> 01:16:44,800
that.
There's more than this, more

1485
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,280
than this in the US There's,
there's a lot of this in in

1486
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:49,920
Canada too.
There's like, you know, Western

1487
01:16:49,920 --> 01:16:53,000
jurisdictions over a long period
of time, Australia's hopefully

1488
01:16:53,800 --> 01:16:56,880
had some sheltering for, for a
while, but things are changing.

1489
01:16:56,880 --> 01:17:03,600
But there's been a, a tendency
to a want to export kind of our

1490
01:17:03,600 --> 01:17:07,120
emissions and industrialization
to to China and other parts,

1491
01:17:07,120 --> 01:17:12,240
just not, not in my backyard.
And, and, and be a kind of a, a

1492
01:17:12,240 --> 01:17:16,400
disconnect in what actually kind
of happens as a, as a result of

1493
01:17:16,400 --> 01:17:19,240
that.
And, and, and then an

1494
01:17:19,240 --> 01:17:21,720
environmental, an environment of
kind of policy settings that

1495
01:17:21,720 --> 01:17:26,720
makes it like challenging to
encourage investment because you

1496
01:17:26,720 --> 01:17:29,200
need certainty like, like, you
know, investment.

1497
01:17:29,640 --> 01:17:31,520
If there's one thing that just
like scares investment away,

1498
01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:35,080
it's it's uncertainty.
Uncertainty can, can manifest in

1499
01:17:35,080 --> 01:17:38,720
a lot of ways.
It's like timelines that blow

1500
01:17:38,720 --> 01:17:42,480
out when they should have been
certain or it's, you know,

1501
01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:45,280
regime change that where you
previously had certainty, all of

1502
01:17:45,280 --> 01:17:47,640
a sudden, you know, things can
get rug pulled from you.

1503
01:17:48,080 --> 01:17:52,200
Those things kind of massively
undermine any any, any

1504
01:17:52,200 --> 01:17:53,640
investment.
Why would you invest somewhere

1505
01:17:53,920 --> 01:17:55,000
where those are risks?
Yeah.

1506
01:17:55,800 --> 01:17:58,040
It's interesting you kind of say
that in the, you know, you think

1507
01:17:58,040 --> 01:18:00,240
about what's happened in this
industry with respect to Guinea.

1508
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:05,160
Yeah, right, Because now we
have, now you think of it as you

1509
01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:08,240
know, China's producing 60% of
the world's primary aluminium,

1510
01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:12,360
right.
And so the bulk site required to

1511
01:18:12,360 --> 01:18:15,000
produce the Lumina that produces
that primary aluminium is

1512
01:18:15,000 --> 01:18:19,880
probably now running about 45%
of of China's needs.

1513
01:18:20,520 --> 01:18:21,880
So there's an addiction there,
right.

1514
01:18:21,880 --> 01:18:26,800
But that means that it's 30% of
the world's primary aluminium is

1515
01:18:26,800 --> 01:18:33,160
now reliant on one very small
politically unstable W African

1516
01:18:33,160 --> 01:18:36,960
country that you look at and you
think from a supply chain risk.

1517
01:18:37,400 --> 01:18:39,800
I don't think I've seen that
level of risk in the aluminium

1518
01:18:39,800 --> 01:18:41,000
industry as long as I've been in
it.

1519
01:18:42,280 --> 01:18:45,440
Is that and there's is the fear
probably probably in China,

1520
01:18:45,440 --> 01:18:49,800
probably globally people who who
require the metal it's that the

1521
01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:54,400
fear is that like it just takes
one bit of political instability

1522
01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:57,360
can kind of compromise that for
12.

1523
01:18:57,360 --> 01:18:57,680
Months.
Yeah.

1524
01:18:57,680 --> 01:18:59,800
Well, I think that's why, you
know, you're starting to get

1525
01:18:59,800 --> 01:19:01,960
signals out of China that they
should be diversifying more, you

1526
01:19:02,080 --> 01:19:04,280
know, in terms of their supply.
But where?

1527
01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:06,520
Where?
Where do you get it from?

1528
01:19:06,960 --> 01:19:08,520
Yeah.
That's the problem it.

1529
01:19:08,800 --> 01:19:13,920
It could get to a a risky kind
of point where a small group can

1530
01:19:13,920 --> 01:19:17,960
have control in a country and
and hold a a world at.

1531
01:19:18,480 --> 01:19:22,400
And industry.
Is to to ransom in in a way sort

1532
01:19:22,400 --> 01:19:25,680
of knock on wood that doesn't
kind of happen, but it's a risk

1533
01:19:25,680 --> 01:19:28,080
when you have such concentrated
supply.

1534
01:19:28,400 --> 01:19:29,920
That's right.
I mean, there's a lot of talk in

1535
01:19:29,920 --> 01:19:33,040
the industry that at some point
thinking in government will, you

1536
01:19:33,080 --> 01:19:36,000
know, increase the royalty or do
something different because they

1537
01:19:36,000 --> 01:19:38,560
do have such a such a huge
control.

1538
01:19:38,840 --> 01:19:41,200
But I think right now the lever
that they're looking to pull is

1539
01:19:41,200 --> 01:19:44,840
to, you know, is to force
companies to build refineries,

1540
01:19:45,440 --> 01:19:47,840
you know, in in country.
And that to me, like I said, I

1541
01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:51,400
mean, I, yeah, it kind of makes
sense, but you know, get in the

1542
01:19:51,400 --> 01:19:54,960
queue, get when your, your time
is not here yet, but your time

1543
01:19:54,960 --> 01:19:58,120
is coming.
And so prepare yourself for

1544
01:19:58,120 --> 01:20:00,240
that.
But it's true, you know, there,

1545
01:20:00,240 --> 01:20:04,200
there is a, there is always the,
the risk that they can, you

1546
01:20:04,200 --> 01:20:06,760
know, they can have more of an
influence on price that they

1547
01:20:06,760 --> 01:20:09,360
have at the moment.
That there's a there's a

1548
01:20:09,360 --> 01:20:13,600
positive to that as well with
SIM Andu going ahead in in

1549
01:20:13,600 --> 01:20:17,560
Guinea and you know, Rio Tinto
being in and interest there as

1550
01:20:17,560 --> 01:20:20,680
well as I'm sure there's some
overlap with Chinese parties as

1551
01:20:20,680 --> 01:20:22,240
well.
They can sort of say it.

1552
01:20:23,440 --> 01:20:26,400
They can say we're not going to
put in all this amount of money

1553
01:20:26,400 --> 01:20:29,440
if you're going to muck around
with other part.

1554
01:20:29,440 --> 01:20:32,040
I mean, there's a yeah,
something sort of channel to

1555
01:20:32,040 --> 01:20:36,160
think about down there is right?
But usually complex and

1556
01:20:36,160 --> 01:20:39,120
component of the whole Guinea
story, yeah, is what's happening

1557
01:20:39,120 --> 01:20:41,320
with Simeon do and the role
that, you know, Chinese

1558
01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:43,120
companies are playing in that.
How do you say that?

1559
01:20:44,160 --> 01:20:47,280
I see see men do I mean, it's
going ahead, right.

1560
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:50,440
It's you know, we get updates
regularly because we got a we

1561
01:20:50,440 --> 01:20:54,840
got an office in Guinea.
So you know, you see it coming

1562
01:20:55,360 --> 01:21:01,480
and it's high grade, high grade
iron ore and it will, it will

1563
01:21:01,480 --> 01:21:04,480
come out in some fairly
substantial volumes over time.

1564
01:21:05,160 --> 01:21:08,520
And you know, we're kind of cost
curve fundamentalists.

1565
01:21:08,520 --> 01:21:11,160
So you look and think just
displaces whatever sitting at

1566
01:21:11,160 --> 01:21:15,000
the top of the curve goes, you
know, whether it's 100 million

1567
01:21:15,000 --> 01:21:17,840
tonnes or whatever the number
is, but. 180 is what we've been

1568
01:21:17,840 --> 01:21:22,120
told is the that the high cost.
Is the tough it's target volume.

1569
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:25,320
It's well the, the I know cost
curve is, is step, but you've

1570
01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:28,280
got the high cost miners that
kind of keep, keep price where

1571
01:21:28,360 --> 01:21:30,080
has been for a good period of
time.

1572
01:21:30,080 --> 01:21:32,640
But that that high cost
proportion is 180 million tonnes

1573
01:21:32,640 --> 01:21:34,880
worth.
Simon do maybe by the end of the

1574
01:21:34,880 --> 01:21:39,520
decade could be 120.
Yeah, that's something I don't

1575
01:21:39,520 --> 01:21:41,760
know if you believe that.
I think they could ramp it as

1576
01:21:41,760 --> 01:21:43,960
fast as they they possibly.
Could well I think what they've

1577
01:21:43,960 --> 01:21:47,040
demonstrated with bauxite is
that they can do it yeah.

1578
01:21:47,360 --> 01:21:50,360
So I have no doubt that, you
know, whatever the number is

1579
01:21:50,360 --> 01:21:51,440
that they're going to target
that they'll.

1580
01:21:51,680 --> 01:21:53,600
I'll get there.
The Excuse me.

1581
01:21:53,600 --> 01:21:56,360
The thing about cement do is
though it is a long way yeah.

1582
01:21:56,760 --> 01:22:00,440
So, you know it's like 600 and I
don't know 3600 and 36140

1583
01:22:00,440 --> 01:22:02,240
kilometres.
Then you've got a trend.

1584
01:22:02,240 --> 01:22:05,200
I can't remember whether they're
translating or not, but on our

1585
01:22:05,200 --> 01:22:09,320
numbers I think we did.
It was about maybe 40 bucks if I

1586
01:22:09,320 --> 01:22:13,720
be, so it's 70.
Ish.

1587
01:22:14,080 --> 01:22:17,320
The grade landed grade, the
grade that's right via you back

1588
01:22:17,320 --> 01:22:19,560
to the value in use, right?
What, what impact that has?

1589
01:22:19,560 --> 01:22:23,520
That's right.
And then for the low, I think

1590
01:22:23,520 --> 01:22:25,800
about the low cost producers as
well.

1591
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:29,320
It's like you don't just get
punished on a proportionate

1592
01:22:29,320 --> 01:22:32,480
basis to your grade, your
realisations disproportionately

1593
01:22:32,480 --> 01:22:35,560
get punished.
Yeah, yeah.

1594
01:22:36,240 --> 01:22:39,240
But thankfully that's not box
I'm illuminated just yet.

1595
01:22:40,760 --> 01:22:43,560
Not yet, yeah.
What do you think the industry

1596
01:22:43,600 --> 01:22:45,960
will look like in in, you know,
I mean, you've been doing this.

1597
01:22:46,800 --> 01:22:49,480
Yeah, for too long, 30 years,
I'm the only one left in the

1598
01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:51,640
everybody else's.
You know, natural nutrition has

1599
01:22:51,640 --> 01:22:54,560
taken everybody else except me.
30 years from now, what does it

1600
01:22:54,560 --> 01:22:57,720
look like and who are The Who
are The Who are the big winners

1601
01:22:57,720 --> 01:23:02,480
and who are the big losers?
Quite a hell of a question from

1602
01:23:02,480 --> 01:23:04,080
an aluminium perspective, I
think.

1603
01:23:05,360 --> 01:23:11,640
I think China solves it's, it's
it's a carbon issue for for the

1604
01:23:11,640 --> 01:23:14,040
production of electrolytic.
Yeah, aluminium.

1605
01:23:14,240 --> 01:23:18,320
Recycling and.
Recycling renewables, nuclear,

1606
01:23:18,320 --> 01:23:20,480
whatever it is that they, they
will, they will solve the

1607
01:23:20,480 --> 01:23:23,360
problem and then we'll see the,
you know, the, the, the

1608
01:23:23,400 --> 01:23:25,520
footprint, the carbon footprint
for the aluminium industry will

1609
01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:27,200
plummet as a result of what they
I.

1610
01:23:27,360 --> 01:23:29,040
Mean that's the answer in the
room we didn't even talk about

1611
01:23:29,040 --> 01:23:33,840
today was the the the the 6% of
carbon emissions come from come

1612
01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:35,600
from the refining.
Of smelting.

1613
01:23:35,760 --> 01:23:37,480
Smelting.
Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, that's right.

1614
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:39,200
Yeah.
So, you know, China has to

1615
01:23:39,200 --> 01:23:41,920
address that.
They are at the moment, but I

1616
01:23:41,920 --> 01:23:44,760
think they'll take some some
pretty big steps in the future

1617
01:23:44,800 --> 01:23:48,680
to reduce, you know, the carbon
footprint for their own primary

1618
01:23:48,680 --> 01:23:51,520
aluminium.
So I think they I think in that

1619
01:23:51,520 --> 01:23:53,120
sense they they, they kind of
win.

1620
01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:57,440
But I think you also see other
countries where you've got

1621
01:23:58,440 --> 01:24:01,840
availability of low cost energy,
you see smelters, you'll see

1622
01:24:01,840 --> 01:24:04,240
more smelters start to, to pop
up.

1623
01:24:04,840 --> 01:24:07,600
And whether that's the Middle
East, you know, or you know,

1624
01:24:07,600 --> 01:24:10,600
some hydro around Southeast Asia
or some other parts of the

1625
01:24:10,600 --> 01:24:14,760
world, I think they, I think
they start to, to win a bit

1626
01:24:14,760 --> 01:24:16,760
more.
I'd love to be able to say that

1627
01:24:16,760 --> 01:24:21,400
we Australia wins as well.
We build more refineries and we,

1628
01:24:21,520 --> 01:24:24,480
you know, we, we have more
refineries sitting in Q1 because

1629
01:24:24,480 --> 01:24:27,000
we have the, we have the raw
material to do it.

1630
01:24:27,640 --> 01:24:29,840
We have the capability as a, as
a country to do it.

1631
01:24:29,840 --> 01:24:33,520
So you know, you want that to
happen, but whether it happens

1632
01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:37,000
or not, you know, we'll see.
But the other big change will be

1633
01:24:37,000 --> 01:24:40,000
recycle.
See much, much more recycle come

1634
01:24:40,000 --> 01:24:42,040
back into the into the aluminium
world.

1635
01:24:42,200 --> 01:24:44,520
And the efficiency get better
that.

1636
01:24:44,600 --> 01:24:46,680
Yeah.
Well, the green aluminium, you

1637
01:24:47,240 --> 01:24:51,360
know, whatever that means, you
know, you'll just see the demand

1638
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:54,480
for that increase more and more
and that will pull in more and

1639
01:24:54,480 --> 01:24:56,720
more.
Recycle, recycling systems will

1640
01:24:57,200 --> 01:24:59,080
improve.
Recycling capability will

1641
01:24:59,320 --> 01:25:01,480
improve.
Do you think it'll be like a, a

1642
01:25:02,440 --> 01:25:06,880
market that will like generally
be balanced most of the time

1643
01:25:07,360 --> 01:25:10,000
because there are these like
large long life reserves that

1644
01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:12,680
can be tapped into, but we'll
just have have intermittent

1645
01:25:12,680 --> 01:25:15,160
periods of being like, you know,
tremendously imbalanced and

1646
01:25:15,280 --> 01:25:17,560
price.
Yeah, I think that's the, I mean

1647
01:25:17,560 --> 01:25:19,960
if you look at the history of
the industry, I mean it is a

1648
01:25:19,960 --> 01:25:22,760
capital intensive industry,
right, smelting, refining and so

1649
01:25:22,760 --> 01:25:24,760
forth.
And you know, if you look at the

1650
01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:28,880
sort of the supply demand
balance, the history of supply

1651
01:25:28,880 --> 01:25:31,760
demand balance, it doesn't
really change that much.

1652
01:25:31,840 --> 01:25:33,840
You guys are too young to
remember what happened in the

1653
01:25:33,840 --> 01:25:37,840
90s with the, with the, the,
have you ever heard of the MOU

1654
01:25:37,840 --> 01:25:41,720
in the aluminium industry?
The MOU was when, when the, when

1655
01:25:41,880 --> 01:25:46,000
Soviet Union collapsed primary
aluminium flooded into the, into

1656
01:25:46,000 --> 01:25:49,080
the rest of the world.
And so the, the aluminium

1657
01:25:49,080 --> 01:25:51,480
producers at the time, the rest
of what they had to get together

1658
01:25:52,240 --> 01:25:55,920
and, and, and sign what was
called an MOU to cut their

1659
01:25:55,920 --> 01:25:59,520
production to, to compensate for
the amount of primary element

1660
01:25:59,520 --> 01:26:01,600
that was coming in and, and the
industry as a whole.

1661
01:26:02,160 --> 01:26:04,320
I mean, they did it.
Yeah.

1662
01:26:04,320 --> 01:26:06,160
Effectively, all of the big
producers at the time got

1663
01:26:06,160 --> 01:26:09,480
together and said, OK, we're
going to for our own survival,

1664
01:26:09,480 --> 01:26:11,920
we have to have to make some
cuts.

1665
01:26:11,920 --> 01:26:13,640
Curtailment curtail behaviour in
some.

1666
01:26:13,800 --> 01:26:16,920
Ways an OPEC style thing but
more for survival then for more.

1667
01:26:16,960 --> 01:26:18,200
Amazing survival.
That's right.

1668
01:26:18,640 --> 01:26:20,640
That's right.
And they kind of weathered that

1669
01:26:20,640 --> 01:26:24,280
storm, but that's the only, you
know, other than that, the

1670
01:26:24,280 --> 01:26:26,920
market sort of, you know, goes
in and out of balance.

1671
01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:30,120
You might see some refining
capacity come out somewhere or

1672
01:26:30,120 --> 01:26:32,840
some smelting and, and things
might go out of balance for a

1673
01:26:32,840 --> 01:26:34,960
while.
But the industry tends to work

1674
01:26:35,320 --> 01:26:39,560
together, you know, to, to to
sort of compensate if that

1675
01:26:39,560 --> 01:26:42,520
happens.
In 2018, the largest alumina

1676
01:26:42,520 --> 01:26:45,760
refinery outside of China, which
is any Norte in Brazil, was

1677
01:26:45,760 --> 01:26:47,600
forced by the Brazilian
government to cut half its

1678
01:26:47,600 --> 01:26:49,640
capacity for a whole bunch of
reasons.

1679
01:26:50,880 --> 01:26:54,560
And so the alumina price, you
know, sort of up to sort of six,

1680
01:26:54,560 --> 01:26:57,840
$700.00 a tonne.
And so there were a lot of

1681
01:26:57,840 --> 01:27:01,520
smelters that were short
aluminium all of a sudden.

1682
01:27:01,720 --> 01:27:06,240
So the industry kind of came
together to make sure that the

1683
01:27:06,240 --> 01:27:08,760
smelters that needed the
aluminium got the aluminium

1684
01:27:09,320 --> 01:27:12,280
rather than force them to close
because that's a disaster in the

1685
01:27:12,280 --> 01:27:15,240
army industry, right, if the
force a smelter to close.

1686
01:27:15,800 --> 01:27:18,880
So the point is that it's, you
know, it's more or less balanced

1687
01:27:19,240 --> 01:27:22,120
when it gets out of balance, the
industry tends to kind of work

1688
01:27:22,120 --> 01:27:25,960
together to, to make sure that
nobody kind of really that you

1689
01:27:25,960 --> 01:27:29,120
don't lose anybody because it's
a, it's a big deal.

1690
01:27:29,600 --> 01:27:33,200
It kind of, I can see that
continuing to be the case that

1691
01:27:33,200 --> 01:27:34,760
things are more or less in
balance.

1692
01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:38,520
You know, when it comes to
Illumina, the way that the world

1693
01:27:38,520 --> 01:27:41,520
has kind of worked over the
past, I don't know, 10-15 years

1694
01:27:41,520 --> 01:27:44,400
or so, is that China's kind of
acted as a bit of a sponge.

1695
01:27:44,400 --> 01:27:48,360
If there's been surplus alumina,
China tends to kind of soak it

1696
01:27:48,360 --> 01:27:51,600
up and that keeps things in
balance as well.

1697
01:27:52,080 --> 01:27:53,960
So from that perspective, the
industry kind of works pretty

1698
01:27:53,960 --> 01:27:57,600
well together and you would hope
that that would continue to be

1699
01:27:57,600 --> 01:27:59,520
the case, you know, for the next
1020 years or so.

1700
01:28:01,240 --> 01:28:03,000
Let's hope so.
Yeah, let's hope so.

1701
01:28:03,520 --> 01:28:06,960
We'll see.
There's one last like I don't

1702
01:28:06,960 --> 01:28:11,160
even know if it's a derivative
of the complex, but it's it's

1703
01:28:11,160 --> 01:28:13,920
one of those sort of actually
made the critical minerals list

1704
01:28:13,920 --> 01:28:17,360
before alumina bauxite or
aluminium ever did high purity

1705
01:28:17,360 --> 01:28:20,760
alumina.
What should we, what should we

1706
01:28:20,760 --> 01:28:27,600
think of that?
OK, the way to think about high

1707
01:28:27,600 --> 01:28:29,560
purity alumina is that the world
that that.

1708
01:28:29,960 --> 01:28:33,400
I mean, first of all, you have
to define high purity alumina.

1709
01:28:33,560 --> 01:28:34,080
Yeah.
How?

1710
01:28:34,160 --> 01:28:35,560
Many NS.
How many NS?

1711
01:28:35,560 --> 01:28:38,640
That's right.
And so we would say you start at

1712
01:28:38,640 --> 01:28:41,080
four.
Yeah, it's 4 N and above.

1713
01:28:41,080 --> 01:28:44,120
That's what we would call hyper
alumina. 3 N yeah, that's

1714
01:28:44,200 --> 01:28:47,320
industrial mineral.
The N is how many 99 point?

1715
01:28:47,320 --> 01:28:52,400
99.99 is 3 NS and so forth.
So if you look at just the high

1716
01:28:52,400 --> 01:28:59,880
purity market today, including
China, I think it is one large

1717
01:28:59,880 --> 01:29:03,360
boatload of alumina.
Oh, it's about 60,000 tonnes,

1718
01:29:03,360 --> 01:29:05,160
5560, something like that,
right.

1719
01:29:05,640 --> 01:29:10,880
But the thing about, about HPR
high purity alumina is that

1720
01:29:12,440 --> 01:29:15,520
there's so many different
applications for, for hyperity

1721
01:29:15,520 --> 01:29:20,480
alumina, whether it's, you know,
sapphire for, for LE DS or, or,

1722
01:29:20,560 --> 01:29:22,960
or, or polishing of
semiconductor, you know,

1723
01:29:22,960 --> 01:29:25,160
whatever it is, there's lots of,
and, and every one of them has a

1724
01:29:25,160 --> 01:29:27,960
very specific requirement of the
HPA.

1725
01:29:28,320 --> 01:29:30,800
So it's not as if, you know, you
can't think of it as a, as a

1726
01:29:30,800 --> 01:29:35,800
commodity or like a, there's
this thing called 4N or 4N plus

1727
01:29:35,800 --> 01:29:37,280
alumina and that this is what it
looks like.

1728
01:29:37,280 --> 01:29:39,720
It's just absolutely not the way
the market works.

1729
01:29:39,920 --> 01:29:43,360
It's more like a pharmaceutical
product, that's the way to think

1730
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:45,360
about it rather than like a
commodity, you've got to think

1731
01:29:45,360 --> 01:29:48,880
about it like a pharmaceutical.
And so it's almost produced in

1732
01:29:48,880 --> 01:29:51,800
batches for particular
applications and those

1733
01:29:51,800 --> 01:29:53,720
applications are changing
rapidly.

1734
01:29:54,240 --> 01:29:58,040
So therefore the requirements of
the HPA are changing rapidly as

1735
01:29:58,040 --> 01:30:00,360
well.
So you've got to kind of get

1736
01:30:00,360 --> 01:30:03,240
yourself as far away from
thinking sort of commodity and

1737
01:30:03,560 --> 01:30:06,280
cost curves and marginal time as
you can possibly get, right?

1738
01:30:06,720 --> 01:30:08,800
Gotcha.
And think about it in those in

1739
01:30:08,800 --> 01:30:11,200
terms of those very specific
applications and what they're

1740
01:30:11,200 --> 01:30:14,600
prepared to pay for it.
Very specialised but potentially

1741
01:30:14,600 --> 01:30:16,560
a high margin business if you
can do it well.

1742
01:30:17,080 --> 01:30:19,360
Well, not potentially, I call it
a high margin business now.

1743
01:30:19,680 --> 01:30:23,560
Yeah, if you can do it, well, if
you can provide, if you can, if

1744
01:30:23,560 --> 01:30:25,760
your technology, because it's
about technology, right.

1745
01:30:26,120 --> 01:30:29,440
Your technology can produce the,
the requirement for that

1746
01:30:29,440 --> 01:30:32,640
particular application, whether
it's a polishing, you know,

1747
01:30:32,640 --> 01:30:35,320
application or whether you're
growing the sapphire for the LED

1748
01:30:35,440 --> 01:30:39,720
or you know, whatever it is.
Then if so long as you can, you

1749
01:30:39,720 --> 01:30:42,400
can meet that specification.
And by the way, you've got to

1750
01:30:42,400 --> 01:30:45,680
become qualified to to supply
that market and the

1751
01:30:45,680 --> 01:30:48,920
qualification process can take
you a year, right.

1752
01:30:48,920 --> 01:30:55,200
So it's a, it's a very, very
specific market that you know

1753
01:30:55,200 --> 01:30:58,520
that like I say is is far away
from smelter grade alumina as

1754
01:30:58,520 --> 01:30:59,680
you can.
And then your.

1755
01:30:59,720 --> 01:31:03,520
Best businesses are someone not
much smarter than me.

1756
01:31:03,520 --> 01:31:06,600
So the best types of businesses
are when you're a small but

1757
01:31:06,600 --> 01:31:12,200
important part imperative part
of a big inexpensive process.

1758
01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:13,440
So you have phenomenal price
well.

1759
01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:15,960
Hopefully.
Semiconductors, yeah, you know,

1760
01:31:15,960 --> 01:31:18,840
or, or LEDs for that matter.
So pricing power is something

1761
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:21,960
that most commodity producers
don't have, you know what I

1762
01:31:22,080 --> 01:31:23,520
mean?
Like, like, I mean that's the

1763
01:31:23,520 --> 01:31:26,440
definition of a, of a commodity
in that sense that you, you

1764
01:31:26,440 --> 01:31:28,360
know, you've got a terminal
market, yeah.

1765
01:31:28,360 --> 01:31:30,320
And that you, you know, you
can't control the price.

1766
01:31:30,320 --> 01:31:33,800
You it's just all about where
you sit on the on the curve, on

1767
01:31:33,800 --> 01:31:36,560
the cost curve.
HPA completely.

1768
01:31:36,640 --> 01:31:40,440
Yeah, that's right.
I mean, I like that, that

1769
01:31:40,440 --> 01:31:43,520
analogy.
That's, that's that's where HPA

1770
01:31:43,560 --> 01:31:45,440
is today, I think.
Yeah.

1771
01:31:46,080 --> 01:31:47,720
That's riveting.
What?

1772
01:31:48,280 --> 01:31:53,240
Is there anything you want to,
you know, leave our audience

1773
01:31:53,240 --> 01:31:57,840
with or thinking about Alan?
I mean, yeah, what, what, what,

1774
01:31:57,840 --> 01:32:01,920
what sort of, you know, views
haven't we traversed today that

1775
01:32:01,920 --> 01:32:04,880
you're kind of, you think would
be kind of worth, worth hearing.

1776
01:32:04,960 --> 01:32:08,600
Although we haven't traversed.
Yeah, well, that's a good

1777
01:32:08,600 --> 01:32:11,600
question.
I think Jesus were covered a

1778
01:32:11,600 --> 01:32:14,000
lot.
Yeah, I'd like to bring you back

1779
01:32:14,000 --> 01:32:18,600
from manganese and Tungsten and.
Yeah, and every other yeah Mag

1780
01:32:18,800 --> 01:32:20,000
I've I've.
Magnesium.

1781
01:32:20,120 --> 01:32:24,040
Magnesium is I'll I'll leave you
this to think about right just

1782
01:32:24,040 --> 01:32:27,880
for a magnesium this can right
every alloy like the alloy of

1783
01:32:27,880 --> 01:32:30,840
the body, the alloy of the top
and the alloy of the tab are all

1784
01:32:30,840 --> 01:32:34,600
different, but every one of them
contains magnesium, right.

1785
01:32:35,200 --> 01:32:38,680
So the biggest use of magnesium
is the alloy in aluminium Yeah.

1786
01:32:39,200 --> 01:32:44,000
So if you can't get the mag,
can't produce the alloys that

1787
01:32:44,000 --> 01:32:46,560
are required to make all of
these sorts of things, window

1788
01:32:46,560 --> 01:32:48,720
frames or you know what, all the
stuff around here, that's all

1789
01:32:48,720 --> 01:32:52,240
aluminium, right?
China produces today somewhere

1790
01:32:52,240 --> 01:32:54,760
between 85 and 90% of the
world's primary magnesium.

1791
01:32:55,160 --> 01:32:59,560
Seriously.
That's something to think about,

1792
01:32:59,600 --> 01:33:01,280
right?
You talk about critical minerals

1793
01:33:01,280 --> 01:33:02,920
and so forth.
I didn't know that.

1794
01:33:03,160 --> 01:33:05,840
It's quite amazing.
That's going to give us a rabbit

1795
01:33:05,840 --> 01:33:07,080
hole to to go.
Yeah.

1796
01:33:07,080 --> 01:33:09,480
Well, it's an interesting one
to, to, to dive down that.

1797
01:33:09,720 --> 01:33:13,200
I mean, so I was going to say
from a like from a, from a, from

1798
01:33:13,200 --> 01:33:16,840
an aluminium perspective, I
think, you know, some takeaways

1799
01:33:16,840 --> 01:33:19,000
here that I think people don't
really understand all that well.

1800
01:33:19,000 --> 01:33:22,440
It's just the versatility of
the, of the, of the, the metal

1801
01:33:22,440 --> 01:33:26,120
to start with right at, at the
one end, but at the other end,

1802
01:33:26,320 --> 01:33:29,160
this massive concentration of
where the raw material now comes

1803
01:33:29,160 --> 01:33:32,720
from for the world.
You know, it's a an interesting

1804
01:33:33,480 --> 01:33:37,240
situation right now.
Amazing could be set of many.

1805
01:33:38,120 --> 01:33:41,720
Many medals as well.
Yeah, one last.

1806
01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:43,160
One hello.
Sorry, go.

1807
01:33:44,680 --> 01:33:48,360
For it keep, I'll keep going.
I want, I just want to include

1808
01:33:48,360 --> 01:33:50,120
this misconception.
Sure.

1809
01:33:50,440 --> 01:33:53,760
We had a bit of a chin wag
before we recorded you.

1810
01:33:54,880 --> 01:33:59,280
I, I'd spoken to you that I'd
heard that, you know, aluminium,

1811
01:33:59,280 --> 01:34:02,160
if you own Alcoa, you kind of
get exposure to Freeport or vice

1812
01:34:02,160 --> 01:34:05,400
versa because in some ways these
are substitutable metals.

1813
01:34:05,400 --> 01:34:08,200
They're both pureplay and
they're hyper correlated kind of

1814
01:34:08,200 --> 01:34:10,640
stock.
So if you, if you're exposed to

1815
01:34:10,640 --> 01:34:13,520
copy, you're exposed to Ali
because you know, heck, at some

1816
01:34:13,520 --> 01:34:16,000
point these markets are very
substitutable and you took issue

1817
01:34:16,000 --> 01:34:17,680
with that immediately.
I did.

1818
01:34:18,400 --> 01:34:22,200
I'm not a big fan of the, of the
of the argument of substitution.

1819
01:34:22,720 --> 01:34:27,040
And in, in some respects it kind
of comes back to to, you know,

1820
01:34:27,040 --> 01:34:30,000
we were talking about mag before
as well, because magnesium is

1821
01:34:30,000 --> 01:34:33,720
substitutable aluminium in die
casting and it's an easy

1822
01:34:33,720 --> 01:34:35,320
substitution.
You know, if you compare it

1823
01:34:35,320 --> 01:34:39,400
with, you know, substitution of,
of aluminium for copper, for

1824
01:34:39,400 --> 01:34:43,240
example, it's, it's complicated.
It's not just, you know, you

1825
01:34:43,240 --> 01:34:47,200
look at the ratio of the prices
and you know, get up the next

1826
01:34:47,200 --> 01:34:49,200
day and say, well, they look at
the Ali price, look at the

1827
01:34:49,240 --> 01:34:53,320
copper price.
I'm going to switch it just it

1828
01:34:53,320 --> 01:34:55,200
doesn't happen that way.
And you think about the

1829
01:34:55,200 --> 01:34:58,600
applications that the copper is
being used in, for example.

1830
01:34:59,040 --> 01:35:01,800
And if it's a if it's a, a
motor, like if it's a wound

1831
01:35:01,800 --> 01:35:05,120
motor or whatever it is then.
And if it's sitting in a car, an

1832
01:35:05,120 --> 01:35:08,640
EV or you know, or whatever,
then that that car has been

1833
01:35:08,640 --> 01:35:14,560
through a process to have it,
you know, legally on the road.

1834
01:35:15,280 --> 01:35:18,240
That process has to be
replicated if you're going to

1835
01:35:18,240 --> 01:35:22,960
swap out of copper and swap into
into aluminium, for example, not

1836
01:35:22,960 --> 01:35:25,400
only have you got a whole bunch
of materials issues you're going

1837
01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:27,840
to have to deal with just in the
the differences in weights and

1838
01:35:27,920 --> 01:35:29,600
you know, and conductivity and
so forth.

1839
01:35:30,040 --> 01:35:32,800
Then you have to go through the
whole compliance, you know,

1840
01:35:33,400 --> 01:35:36,720
issue as well.
So to say that, you know, look

1841
01:35:36,720 --> 01:35:39,960
at prices and you know, get to
certain ratios and you kind of

1842
01:35:39,960 --> 01:35:41,800
flip out of one, I just think is
a nonsense.

1843
01:35:42,160 --> 01:35:44,000
I think it takes some
applications.

1844
01:35:44,000 --> 01:35:47,720
I would agree that you know that
that that are not non critical

1845
01:35:47,720 --> 01:35:49,600
kind of applications.
Maybe you might see a bit of

1846
01:35:49,600 --> 01:35:54,680
substitution, but in big, you
know, big chunky kind of uses

1847
01:35:54,680 --> 01:35:59,640
for those metals, substitution
takes a lot of time and I just I

1848
01:35:59,680 --> 01:36:03,200
don't see it happening.
I also sort of take issue with

1849
01:36:03,200 --> 01:36:06,200
the fact that, you know, that
that copper prices might move,

1850
01:36:07,280 --> 01:36:10,400
you know, relative to alley
prices, for example.

1851
01:36:10,400 --> 01:36:11,920
You know, one moves without the
other.

1852
01:36:12,000 --> 01:36:15,000
So you know what what kind of
what kind of drives that?

1853
01:36:15,000 --> 01:36:18,320
Why would one move?
They tend to move in some

1854
01:36:18,520 --> 01:36:22,400
respect together, not, not, you
know, not a strong correlation,

1855
01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:25,000
but they'll move.
What's affecting one often

1856
01:36:25,000 --> 01:36:28,200
affects the other.
So, you know, I just I, I, I

1857
01:36:28,200 --> 01:36:31,640
can't see it.
I mentioned mag because, you

1858
01:36:31,640 --> 01:36:35,680
know, die casting is something
that you can switch from ally to

1859
01:36:35,680 --> 01:36:38,840
mag.
You know, I want to say

1860
01:36:38,840 --> 01:36:42,640
reasonably hassle free, but if a
die cast ever heard me say that

1861
01:36:42,640 --> 01:36:45,960
they would shoot me.
More hassle free than switching

1862
01:36:45,960 --> 01:36:47,120
for it.
That's right.

1863
01:36:47,120 --> 01:36:50,160
It's more hassle free and even
they find it difficult to

1864
01:36:50,160 --> 01:36:51,960
because they've got to retool,
they've got to change their

1865
01:36:51,960 --> 01:36:54,000
furnace, they've got to change
everything over to another metal

1866
01:36:54,000 --> 01:36:58,040
that, you know, in six months or
a year's time it might reverse.

1867
01:36:58,120 --> 01:36:59,920
What's the price?
So you have to have a, you know,

1868
01:36:59,920 --> 01:37:02,760
you have to have a long term
view that Ali price is going to

1869
01:37:02,760 --> 01:37:05,400
be significantly lower than
copper for the next decade

1870
01:37:05,920 --> 01:37:09,520
before you seriously consider,
you know, you know, switching

1871
01:37:09,520 --> 01:37:13,080
some, you know, high volume
critical kind of applications.

1872
01:37:13,800 --> 01:37:16,160
Supply chains don't turn quickly
these processes.

1873
01:37:16,320 --> 01:37:18,400
Change long time that that's
right.

1874
01:37:18,520 --> 01:37:21,080
So you know, I I do take issue a
bit with that.

1875
01:37:21,120 --> 01:37:24,160
So yeah.
Yeah, this has been amazing.

1876
01:37:24,560 --> 01:37:26,560
How long have we been going for?
No idea.

1877
01:37:26,640 --> 01:37:29,160
I've learned.
I've learned a complete

1878
01:37:29,160 --> 01:37:32,040
boatload.
And I'm just on boatload.

1879
01:37:32,040 --> 01:37:35,760
Let me say one more thing.
Boatload's interesting.

1880
01:37:36,040 --> 01:37:37,880
You know, we're talking about
the different types of bauxite,

1881
01:37:37,880 --> 01:37:38,280
right?
Yeah.

1882
01:37:38,520 --> 01:37:41,160
I just, I just, I had this
thought this morning that

1883
01:37:41,680 --> 01:37:44,200
there's there's a vessel you
should look up.

1884
01:37:44,200 --> 01:37:46,080
It's called the the the bulk
Jupiter.

1885
01:37:46,080 --> 01:37:47,840
Do you know what liquefaction
is?

1886
01:37:47,880 --> 01:37:50,680
No.
So liquefaction happens when

1887
01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:53,640
you've got a solid, a solid
material that's got maybe a high

1888
01:37:54,320 --> 01:37:58,280
moisture content that when you
start to move it, it becomes a

1889
01:37:58,280 --> 01:37:59,640
liquid.
Yeah, yeah.

1890
01:37:59,800 --> 01:38:03,840
OK, So that's liquefaction and
at least two bauxite vessels

1891
01:38:03,880 --> 01:38:06,520
have sunk and I think they were
coming from Malaysia.

1892
01:38:06,520 --> 01:38:07,920
The bulk Jupiter was one of
them, right?

1893
01:38:08,400 --> 01:38:11,440
Because it, you know, you hit
some rough sea and the bulks

1894
01:38:11,440 --> 01:38:14,040
like because the, the, the
moisture content of the bauxite

1895
01:38:14,040 --> 01:38:19,160
was greater than 20%.
So you know, this vessel moving

1896
01:38:19,160 --> 01:38:23,520
on the ocean liquefied the
cargo, so changing from solid to

1897
01:38:23,520 --> 01:38:25,160
liquid, right?
And so once that happens, you've

1898
01:38:25,160 --> 01:38:27,960
lost control.
The vessel, it sinks.

1899
01:38:27,960 --> 01:38:32,000
So the weight was just.
It was moving, sorry, it was

1900
01:38:32,000 --> 01:38:35,160
moving with the, you know, as
the, as the mess vessel moved in

1901
01:38:35,200 --> 01:38:37,360
on the ocean and it and it
tipped.

1902
01:38:38,040 --> 01:38:41,040
But it comes back to this, you
know, this whole idea of books

1903
01:38:41,040 --> 01:38:42,960
and we're sort of where we
started, right, That, you know,

1904
01:38:42,960 --> 01:38:45,880
there's bauxite and there's
bauxite, there's bauxite, but

1905
01:38:45,880 --> 01:38:48,080
you know, you pull it out of the
ground as a like, as a, you

1906
01:38:48,080 --> 01:38:51,720
know, just ESO onto a boat.
It's got 20% moisture.

1907
01:38:51,720 --> 01:38:54,440
You know you're out and seeing,
you know the bloody thing sunk

1908
01:38:54,440 --> 01:38:56,640
because it because the cargo
liquefied.

1909
01:38:56,640 --> 01:38:58,280
That's incredible.
Yeah, it's amazing.

1910
01:38:58,840 --> 01:39:02,040
Anyway, there it is guys.
Thank you.

1911
01:39:02,080 --> 01:39:04,200
I hope that's been of some
value.

1912
01:39:04,440 --> 01:39:06,560
This has been a phenomenal.
Value to you.

1913
01:39:07,720 --> 01:39:11,000
Don't look, I mean I've got 2
cans of people's hairs on I

1914
01:39:11,000 --> 01:39:13,640
seriously can't go wrong.
I mean, you had me at free Beer

1915
01:39:13,640 --> 01:39:16,560
by.
I'm very much looking forward to

1916
01:39:16,560 --> 01:39:20,400
doing MAG and every other.
Yeah, Tungsten and Molly in a

1917
01:39:20,400 --> 01:39:22,400
few of them.
Yeah, can't wait.

1918
01:39:22,720 --> 01:39:23,640
Thank you so much for your.
Time.

1919
01:39:23,680 --> 01:39:26,080
It's a pleasure.
Good stuff, boys, Jay.

1920
01:39:26,160 --> 01:39:28,880
They'll go to the the Interview
marathons these days.

1921
01:39:28,880 --> 01:39:31,840
But tell you what, you probably
could have gone for another hour

1922
01:39:31,840 --> 01:39:33,640
if you want.
Part of me feels bad that we're

1923
01:39:33,640 --> 01:39:36,760
taking so much of their time,
but it's I want them to go so

1924
01:39:36,760 --> 01:39:38,440
good.
I learnt so much in that

1925
01:39:38,440 --> 01:39:40,640
discussion.
So it's, yeah, a real, real

1926
01:39:40,640 --> 01:39:42,320
treat to share that one with the
money miners.

1927
01:39:42,320 --> 01:39:45,120
JD, when you're old and grey
mate, you're going to be given

1928
01:39:45,120 --> 01:39:46,800
back to the young, young fellows
as.

1929
01:39:46,800 --> 01:39:49,400
Well, I'm not sure I'll get to
Alabini mouse level, but let's

1930
01:39:49,400 --> 01:39:51,600
hope so, Maddie.
I don't think you'll ever go

1931
01:39:51,600 --> 01:39:54,320
grey, you'll just like you'll
just be young and fit forever.

1932
01:39:55,400 --> 01:39:57,480
But ah, good work boys.
Sensational.

1933
01:39:57,480 --> 01:40:02,160
Hope everyone enjoyed that and I
enjoy talking about MMS every

1934
01:40:02,160 --> 01:40:04,440
day of my life.
Just like I enjoy talking about

1935
01:40:04,440 --> 01:40:08,160
Grounded Cross, Boundary Energy,
Sandvik Ground support, CRE

1936
01:40:08,160 --> 01:40:11,520
Insurance, Greenland's
equipment, K Drew, MMTS,

1937
01:40:11,720 --> 01:40:14,400
Australian Earthworks and
Haulage and Sparkmatty.

1938
01:40:14,440 --> 01:40:16,520
I enjoy you doing that for me,
JD.

1939
01:40:16,640 --> 01:40:17,520
Have a good weekend.
Money.

1940
01:40:17,520 --> 01:40:21,360
Manners.
Information contained in this

1941
01:40:21,360 --> 01:40:24,120
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1942
01:40:24,120 --> 01:40:26,760
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1943
01:40:26,800 --> 01:40:28,800
or needs of any particular
person.

1944
01:40:29,120 --> 01:40:32,160
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1945
01:40:32,160 --> 01:40:35,240
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1946
01:40:35,240 --> 01:40:38,920
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.