Why the uranium shorts are wrong (Guy Keller interview)

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Rhino you dog money miners.
Guy Keller from Tribeca is on

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his way and just got, well, not
Guy, but uranium is brought to

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you by Quattro Project
Engineering I believe as the EPC

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paste experts.
Lads, get them over to Rook one.

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Look, the bloody backfill and
the reticulation that has to go

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in there.
They've put kilometres of it in

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at Olympic Dam.
They're the pace plan experts

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send them over to the Atabaska
Basin.

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And for that matter, any other
commodity as well, I reckon.

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Oh mate, they'll.
Be flat out on this if they get

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it.
Blown away chatting with the

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team last week.
Phenomenal what they can't do.

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There's not many things, you
know.

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Exactly bloody next Gen.
Give Jess Palmer and Quattro

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buzz right now.
So this was around 2, but it

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probably worked out better
'cause guys may be closer to

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picking the bottom now that he
was when we originally caught it

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a couple of weeks ago.
Well, one one month wiser that

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that gap and it was a relatively
eventful month.

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And regardless, since we had Guy
on the last time and actually

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shared the conversation, a lot
has happened in the the world of

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uranium, hasn't it, Maddie?
Yeah, I think and look we've

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gone through it all companies
specific a lot about the the

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contracting market guys,
obviously got some goodies to

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the ground with utilities funds,
everyone involved in the uranium

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bet whether that bets up or
down.

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So always a great chat with Guy
the Australia, the voice of

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nuclear for Australia.
Here we go.

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Let's get into it right how you
think uranium in Australia, but

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talk about the poster boy of it,
Mr. God Keller.

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But you've taken well, since
Quakes has fallen off Twitter,

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mate.
You've had to take the global

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mantle I think, mate.
I don't feel like a poster boy

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with the, the markets going the
way they're going.

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But you know, hopefully maybe I
look like 1.

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No worries.
So we actually this is a bit of

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a round two effort, but I think
it oh God, when we did it last

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time, I think it was just before
boss's quarterly, I think and we

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had a bit of a tech issue.
So as we said, you're probably

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glad you didn't know that one
didn't go to air because you

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might more chance of being right
now.

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One step, one day closer, right?
As I said, you run the oh,

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forget it every time.
The nuclear, uranium and what's

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your funds name, guy?
Tribeca.

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I do it every time.
Tribeca Tribeca Nuclear Energy

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Opportunities Fund.
That's the one mate.

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Stride.
Take it away, boys.

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Let's talk nuclear and uranium.
I assume that's what we're

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talking about with the guy.
I think it is mate.

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I think the I think the logical
place to to start this one guy

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is the the kind of elephant in
the room, and that's the massive

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short interest in a heap of the
names.

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So free the top five most
shorted stocks on the ASX.

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I'm sure this is no surprise to
you is uranium miners now are

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one's a developer and two
miners.

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So I'm interested in the to to
hear your thoughts, particularly

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with the lens that your strategy
is a long short.

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You're obviously behind the the
long term narrative of uranium

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here, but how are you thinking
about this on on the Surface?

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I think he's asking if you still
made money on the way down, guy.

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It can be interpreted anyway.
Look, if somebody, I said the

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other day, if somebody had given
me a crystal ball six months ago

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and said this is going to be the
the pricing of a lot of the

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uranium stocks, I would have
thrown the crystal ball out, I

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think.
But yeah, look, it's been, I

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mean, it's kind of, I mean, I,
I've got to view it in a

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positive, positive lens.
The sentiment's terrible.

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No generalist wants to touch the
space.

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Shorts are at all time high and
continue to seem to be adding

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and not just in the ASX, but
we're seeing it in North America

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as well.
And, you know, I kind of sit

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there and I say now I don't see
the marginal gain of, of, of

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shorts being added down here
because we're getting such a, an

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interesting part of the market
that it's not going to take much

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for that sentiment to change.
And you know, it's, you've got

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again, hedge fund dinners in, in
New York, I think there was

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eight or ten of these guys at a
dinner 2 weeks ago, 60%, like

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four or five of them were all
pitching short uranium.

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And one, one was asked, you know
what, why, why are you still

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short uranium?
And he said, you know, because

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it's a really easy short to
control.

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And, you know, there's an
element of truth to that.

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There's no big boys in this
trade.

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And and as I said, generalists
are all sitting on the sideline

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with a lot of things.
But yeah, I mean, I it, it, it,

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it's a head scratchers to, to
how committed they've been to

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the trade, to be honest to me.
Why is it?

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Why is it consensus short short
uranium amongst the the the

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hedge fund crowd in crowd in New
York there guy?

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I mean, to be honest, they were
kind of a little bit late to the

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party, right?
The, the short really started

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out of Asia in the ASX stuff
last year, in the second-half of

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last year.
And that was thematic guys

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responding.
From what I could gather, there

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was a, a bunch of guys that had
made funds that had made money

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being short the lithium space.
They tried to roll across to

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rare earths and realised that
that there really wasn't a lot

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of borough available in in any
other's names.

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And then, you know, somebody
pointed out that spot price of

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moving from 107 to 80 odd at the
time and said, you know what

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this is?
This is actually not a bad

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short.
So the ASIC stocks

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underperformed a lot of the
North American stuff last year

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because they were benefiting
from the tech, you know, a data

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centre AI type thematic.
But I think when that DeepSeek,

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I got it right.
Normally I say deep fake or deep

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DeepSeek.
I think when that came came out

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in January that that sort of
gave the US hedges a, a runway

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to go and get into that short.
I think you know, plus I knew

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there was lots of overhang
sitting in the spot market.

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The spot spot physical uranium
trust has been pretty

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ineffective because that's been
really easy to control stopping

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that going up, going to a
premium and they've, you know,

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these hedges have been in that.
So, so it hints back to the it's

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an easy shot to control.
He's he's right.

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The, the deep seat reaction guy
was, was super, super

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interesting.
And I've, I've heard you speak

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to the point that you don't have
a lot of your demand thesis

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backed up by data center demand
and and these sorts of things.

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But I am curious to hear your
thoughts on the the sort of

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joltiness, the sort of
frothiness in the market that

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such an announcement would lead
to 10 plus percent movements in

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the stocks.
What does that kind of tell you

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about the broader market
sentiment at the moment?

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Oh, I mean, look, market
sentiment across all sectors is

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is pretty nervous and dancing
close to the door at the moment

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when you throw market sentiment
of of resources where, you know,

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the resource sector had a pretty
good January.

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People made some money for the
first time in a while and

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they're all nervous.
I mean, you know, we're waking

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up to a different tariff
headline every day and and then

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seeing multiple changes to that,
you know, during our day as

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well.
So, you know, it kind of

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frustrated me at the time
because I didn't really think

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there was that much benefit to
the uranium stocks on the build

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up of all that sort of tech
interest.

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But they certainly got got
whacked on the way down.

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And you know, I mean, it's names
that realistically are not going

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to be supplying uranium to any
tech company build out in the

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next 5 years.
Also getting caught up in that.

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And you know, I think again,
that's just this other just

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another bow in the, in that sort
of short thematic of being able

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to point to that being able to
point to with the physical

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overhang we had in the spot
market, you know, being able to

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point to tariffs and all sorts
of things to, you know, to to

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add to that trade.
So they've just been hammering

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that point home.
So how, how many other

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organisations like yourself that
have a long short strategy for

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uranium are there around the
world in, in the lens that like,

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OK, for Australia, for instance,
we've got two producers that you

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can get enough borrow on to
short.

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Then you've got some developers
like deep yellow as well that

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are, that are up there as well.
But once everyone's long short

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and say you're, you know, net
10% long or 110% long and you've

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got to hedge something is there,
is there an accumulation of

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shorts as well that are
contributing to these shorts

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just 'cause there's not as many
names too short to hedge

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yourself?
Oh yeah.

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Look at my, I hear, I hear so
many different iterations of, of

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why people are short.
Some of the, you know, that boss

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Paladin deep yellow versus their
long other things.

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And you know, and then you look
in North America, I mean, you've

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got a bunch of Canadian tariff
baskets and almost every U.S.

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investment bank's got out there
and they're all short baskets

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obviously because the tariffs
and you've got like Denison and

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Next Gen. in those baskets
there.

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There's no way that either of
those companies are going to be

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producing cake in a can to go to
the US during this current Trump

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administration, yet they're
thrown into these short baskets.

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You know, I can understand when
you look at that and say

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Kamiko's in there because
they're selling a lot of uranium

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to the United States at the
moment.

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So you you're getting a whole
bunch of, you know, that sort of

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stuff as well.
So as I said, I've probably

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heard a dozen different
iterations of various reasons of

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being short something versus
long something else.

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And you know it's from the
perspective of me being long

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short.
I mean we are basically a, a

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levered long portfolio and have
been.

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So our short is not necessarily
a a big structural short, it's

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it tends to be shorts maybe with
country risk where we might be,

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you know, long a country asset
and short something else there.

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If there's going to be some
geopolitical problems, you know,

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short via ETFs and and and
hedging longs via put options,

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which is mainly US listed stuff
and some Canadian stuff.

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So you know, again, should I
have rethought that and been net

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short the portfolio as I said
six months ago, I would have

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thrown out the crystal ball
because there was just so much

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positive news flow coming from
the the nuclear side of things.

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Yeah, Cos and how does it when
they go when you're short URN or

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URA, does that short interest in
that ATF then translate into the

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actual underlying equity
holdings as well or not?

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That's a good question.
I actually don't know the answer

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to that.
I would assume.

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I mean, it may be I.
I doubt it though, because you

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know, it's, it's, it's shares
that are in existence already.

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So they've already been.
Created.

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Yeah, it shouldn't be sure.
It's it's against somebody who's

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long it.
So you know, if if you were, if

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you were collapsing the share
structure on the ETF like you

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can do with some, then then yes,
absolutely there'd be selling

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pressure coming into those
stocks.

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But now you're short against
something that stocks that are

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shares that are already out
there.

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Such a substantial dislocation
between the the spot price and

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the term price right now, Guy,
why?

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Yeah, because the spot market's
easy to I mean, look, we we we

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had Grand Isaac came out at CFO
of Chemical came out at, at at

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the BMO conference and spoke
about those ANU pounds.

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You know, that was a Kazakh
physical vehicle that for

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whatever reason folded.
They originally bought their

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just shy £2.5 million from
Cosatoprom.

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Cosatoprom for whatever reason
wasn't going to buy them back

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back from them.
And these are financial guys

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that spent almost nine months in
the market trying to sell their

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material and there was plenty of
people that wanted to buy it

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from them.
I'm guessing most of them are

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happy that they waited, you
know, so we've had that overhang

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in that spot market, which is
badly managed pounds grand Isaac

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alluded that that had cleared
the market, misinterpreted his,

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his his context there, which he
clarified later to some brokers,

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I heard.
But again, they were in buying

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00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,360
two weeks before he turned
around at a conference and and

224
00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,040
mentioned that overhang.
So they're not that silly.

225
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:36,920
They're not going to they're not
going to go and buy pounds.

226
00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:38,640
They were basically mopping up
the last of that.

227
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,520
So, you know, and, and that,
that has been badly managed And,

228
00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:47,800
and as I said, you know, the
only real buyer that's not an

229
00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,440
end user has been the spark and
that's been managed

230
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,600
extraordinarily well to, to stop
that trading at a premium.

231
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,080
You know, they're buying it at
sub 10% and they're selling it

232
00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,840
back out at -2% to stop at going
to a premium.

233
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,440
Describe the mechanics there of
of managing it from just from

234
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,840
stop trading at a premium.
I mean there aren't many like of

235
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,400
these closed like vehicles like
trust which which structurally

236
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,800
do trade it at at premiums for
very long period of time.

237
00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:15,160
They typically do trade at
discounts, right?

238
00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,960
So what are you seeing there
that that says it's being

239
00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:22,160
managed well?
Just watching the flows and

240
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,200
talking to all the brokers and,
you know, and talking to the

241
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,320
spot guys.
I mean, it's, it's when, when

242
00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:33,800
you do see it, as I said, at -10
or -11 they're coming in to buy

243
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,840
and, and when it's getting close
to NAV, they're selling it

244
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,040
pretty aggressively and trying
to hold that down.

245
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:45,840
You know, it's, it's, it's, I
would love to see spot, you

246
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:48,160
know, if it gets close to a
premium, I'd love to go and see

247
00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,600
them just go and raise, do an
institutional raise it now plus

248
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,160
one cent, go and raise 100
million bucks.

249
00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,440
You know, and if you, if you're,
if you're a fund like myself,

250
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,040
invested in a whole bunch of
uranium and nuclear related

251
00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:04,960
stocks and, and the spot price
is being, you know, held back

252
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,040
because the, the financial
buyer's not able to play.

253
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:12,360
And I pay up a couple of percent
to do a raise at a premium.

254
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:14,560
Why wouldn't?
You.

255
00:14:14,560 --> 00:14:16,320
Yeah, Well, you're not forced.
They're not forced to buy the

256
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,040
pounds at whatever price it is
they can.

257
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:23,000
Buy them in two months if they
want, as I said, spot with 100

258
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:27,040
million bucks in their pocket is
would be just a different a

259
00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:28,880
completely different market
overnight.

260
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,840
You know, I'd think that the the
first hedgey that would be short

261
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,480
would blink and it wouldn't be
long before others follow it.

262
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,400
But you know, look, that's just
ideal world.

263
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,640
If I don't, I don't know what
their plans are and whether they

264
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,800
can do that or whether they
would do that, but I'd love to

265
00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,640
see it happen.
And as sorry, sorry you don't go

266
00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:48,880
and got, I was just going to
say.

267
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,200
And As for the end users, I mean
again, Kamika alluded to it,

268
00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:57,400
something that we verified as
well is that the fuel buyers, so

269
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:00,440
the utilities, remember there's
only about two dozen fuel buyers

270
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,680
in the whole wide world.
It's not like you've got 1000

271
00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:08,240
steel mills bidding for a cargo
vine or they're sitting there.

272
00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:12,120
You know when, when the term
price is below the spot price,

273
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,200
they're never mentioning the
spot price.

274
00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:16,760
They completely ignore it.
But now that the spot price is

275
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:22,480
down at 63 or 64 dollars or $65,
wherever it is, the utilities

276
00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,400
are turning around to some of
these developers and saying,

277
00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,320
hey, you need to lower your
floor price on on our contract

278
00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:31,600
negotiations because the spot
price is lower.

279
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,280
And as I said, the likes of
Chamico are turning around and

280
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:37,840
saying, sorry pal, you know,
we'll talk with an 8 handle,

281
00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,120
thanks very much.
Because spots are relevant.

282
00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:44,920
And Mr. Utility, if you step in
and try to buy half £1,000,000

283
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,040
in the spot market, it's not
going to be with A6 on it

284
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:51,040
anymore.
So they're not getting involved

285
00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,560
because they're trying to
arbitrage that in their

286
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:58,280
conversation with developers.
But you look at so Constellation

287
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:02,200
for example, again one broker
picked it up in, in North

288
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,680
America in their their
financials, they talked about

289
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:09,240
their 2025 CapEx, which was 3
billion odd dollars, U.S.

290
00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,600
dollars.
So they're the biggest nuclear

291
00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,000
generator in the United States
at 21 gigs.

292
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,440
They're restarting 3 Mile
Island, so 1.7 billion going

293
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,520
towards Three Mile Island.
They made an explicit reference

294
00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,000
to having just over a billion
U.S. dollars to spend on nuclear

295
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:29,240
fuel with again an additional
comment saying because we, we

296
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,640
want to secure our needs as well
as building inventory.

297
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,840
So Constellation need to spend a
billion U.S. dollars this year

298
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,960
on nuclear fuel, which includes
uranium and and the spot

299
00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,920
market's sitting here ignoring
it because they've all been so

300
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,800
caught up in in that in all this
short term noise.

301
00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,360
Kaiju will make you feel better
about short term noise.

302
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,000
I I noise you hear out of them's
bloody Arser and Diamond dolls

303
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,440
just punching into the earth.
What does that sound like?

304
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:02,040
Just it sounds like victory, the
victory of potentially finding

305
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:07,079
some, the noise of ASO chips
being accurately collected and

306
00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:08,880
deposited and sampled and
assayed.

307
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,240
I love that sound.
Absolute state-of-the-art

308
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,640
sampling techniques.
So sample management.

309
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:19,640
Is next to, next to, next to.
I was going to say next to none,

310
00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:20,720
but that sounds bad.
Nah.

311
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,440
Well, in Speaking of management
Traveller, you won't hear any

312
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,839
noise from management up above a
bad drill cost blowouts because

313
00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:29,200
it just doesn't happen.
They're on your side.

314
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,920
The only sound I can like kind
of think of that's probably most

315
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,720
accurate is just the the cash
register just ticking over.

316
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:38,760
And working class man in the
background, that's quite burden

317
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,800
that.
So that is K drill.

318
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,600
Ohh.
I just get get in their web and

319
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,920
prepare to be dazzled.
What what do you think BH PS

320
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,960
role is in the spot market?
Because from what I hear, like

321
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,640
most of the pounds that, you
know, the size of what Olympic

322
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,280
Dam produces is the same as what
one of the Cosatomprom assets

323
00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,920
produces.
Like £8,000,000 is a lot of

324
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,680
uranium compared to these small
startups.

325
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,120
And from what I've heard, a lot
of the stuff they sell, it

326
00:18:03,120 --> 00:18:05,200
usually goes into the spot
market.

327
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,080
Is that have they got a
influence on the spot market

328
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,920
since it's so thinly traded and
they just don't really care.

329
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:17,640
They just get rid of it anyway.
So they, they definitely used to

330
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,680
and the subtle change that
they've made is they're now

331
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:25,920
talking directly, more directly
to end users still selling on

332
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,920
spot price terms.
So again, Mr. Utility

333
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,040
negotiating with Olympic dam
with A6 handle isn't going to go

334
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,800
into the spot market
necessarily, but it's not going

335
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:37,880
through the spot market as far
as I'm aware.

336
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,840
I mean, again, BHP was supposed
to be the saviour of all

337
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,640
utilities with Olympic Dam
expansion.

338
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,960
And you know, again, a few
months ago they put out their

339
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:53,680
their documentation for the
expansion of smelter and

340
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,120
refinery, which doesn't include
any uranium expansion, which

341
00:18:57,120 --> 00:19:00,840
means, you know, they won't be
going to 12 or 14 or 16,000,000

342
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,280
lbs.
Let the utilities have thought

343
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,960
they'll be staying at 8.
So, you know, they again,

344
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,560
another bullish anecdote that
the market kind of ignores

345
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,720
because we're all in beer mode.
Is it you got much colour on

346
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,640
what the contract environment's
like at the moment in terms of

347
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,640
like, are people like avoiding
market reference pricing

348
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,560
mechanisms because the spot's
trading so much lower because

349
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,720
you know, the flaws that they
were talking about, you know, a

350
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,120
couple of months ago well above
what the spot price actually is

351
00:19:30,120 --> 00:19:32,320
now?
Like are they going to more

352
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,840
fixed price arrangements or any
info out of the very opaque

353
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,560
market that you've got?
Yeah.

354
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,640
Look, I mean, I'm hearing
obviously the likes of chemical

355
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,200
and they're quite public about
it.

356
00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,680
They're holding firm to the term
price is their is their

357
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:52,000
negotiating point and they can.
So they are.

358
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:57,000
I'm hearing as well that there's
a few developers who are being

359
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:03,480
potentially told they should be
doing more contract discussions.

360
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,920
Are breathing a little bit of a
sigh of relief because they're

361
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:09,800
able to say whoa, you know, the
utilities are trying to tell us

362
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,480
to lower our floors.
So we're not going to engage

363
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:17,200
with them, which also means that
they'll then delay decisions to

364
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:21,240
go and restart or, or, or turn
their minds on.

365
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,440
And you know, those that are
producing, so the 9 odd projects

366
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,040
that started last year, you
know, those that don't have

367
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:33,400
contracts in place for for some
of their incremental pounds are

368
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,520
also breathing a sigh of relief
because we've really only seen

369
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,040
one of those projects come on
reasonably on time.

370
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,040
Everyone else has had had
issues.

371
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,080
So.
So whilst the utilities are

372
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:49,440
sitting here trying to lower the
floor price, most of them are

373
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,880
wanting to you don't not
acknowledge that the spot price

374
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:57,400
should be a starting point for
any any market related component

375
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,920
they've got just because they're
all in the agreement that it

376
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,960
shouldn't be down here and.
What what are the market related

377
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,640
ways that they can calculate the
price of the contract as it

378
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,720
fluctuates?
If they're not using the spot

379
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:14,320
price, can you use the mid term
price or?

380
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,160
Yeah, they can use any price
really.

381
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,040
I mean, some of what I'm hearing
is, is a sort of an average,

382
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:25,360
average between the spot and the
term as a, as a way of sort of,

383
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,440
you know, finding a middle
ground there.

384
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:33,360
The floors and ceilings are
still, you know, quite popular,

385
00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:36,400
especially, you know, again,
someone like Kamika doesn't

386
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:40,080
necessarily need it, but but
for, for some of these FID

387
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,400
projects, they definitely want a
floor in place.

388
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,760
And if it's got a six in front
of it, they definitely won't be

389
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,000
signing it.
So, you know, the floors and

390
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,080
ceilings are quite so they're,
they're all calling them hybrid

391
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,240
contracts, which means it's a
mix of a whole bunch of things

392
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,760
that makes it impossible for
investors to work out exactly

393
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,000
what they're getting until until
they publish some sort of weird

394
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,000
price in their quarterlies after
they've sold it all.

395
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,280
We, we saw over the past year or
so guy plenty of restarts or a

396
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,080
few handful of restarts start
to, to come back online, start

397
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,120
to see some quarterlies come
out.

398
00:22:14,120 --> 00:22:18,000
And the one of the common
critiques had been that, that

399
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:22,280
sort of 60 up to 100 bucks was
an area that we would

400
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,200
incentivize plenty of
production.

401
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,320
And obviously we've we've come
back in price.

402
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,080
But just looking at the the
performance of a lot of those

403
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,520
race starts and the the true
costing that we've started to

404
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,840
see come out, has that changed
your thinking on what incentive

405
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,000
pricing will actually look like
going forward?

406
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:46,520
Oh yeah, 100 percent, 100%.
I mean, it's as I said, we've

407
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:50,000
had 9 odd projects that that
have had some level of

408
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,960
infrastructure CapEx and some
level of production in the past.

409
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,640
And most of them have had cost
blowouts, time problems and, and

410
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:01,280
ramp up issues.
And, and we're sitting here with

411
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,960
a, with a, a short list of, of
Greenfield projects that need to

412
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,840
build a mine, build a road,
build a power line, build a

413
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,840
water pipe, build a, you know,
the plant, build everything.

414
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,680
And they're sitting in a, you
know, kind of saying, Hey, don't

415
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,240
worry about it.
We know our costs will be OK.

416
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,320
It definitely has raised it,
which is why I think you're

417
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,720
seeing some of these things, you
know, push back on, on on a

418
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:30,600
myriad of reasons.
But the utilities are still kind

419
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,240
of believing the corporate
presentation saying, well, these

420
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,080
guys will be here in two years
time.

421
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,840
Well, no, they're not.
You know, it's going to be an

422
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:44,040
interesting year.
And, and for a bunch of reasons,

423
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,840
I think utilities will be forced
back upstream this year.

424
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,560
And I think they're going to
start really getting a bit of a,

425
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,360
a reality shock that that some,
a lot of these things aren't

426
00:23:54,360 --> 00:23:57,280
going to be coming on when they
think they are what, what is and

427
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,120
at these prices.
What does that kind of look

428
00:23:59,120 --> 00:24:00,640
like?
Is that JV stakes?

429
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,200
Is that equity and projects?
Is that helping them with debt

430
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,040
and getting off take?
How do you think about them

431
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:06,840
coming upstream?
Oh no.

432
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,800
I just think in the fuel cycle
they're going to be forced to

433
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:16,840
look at uranium.
You know, I think this whole, I

434
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,600
mean, we can get in the rabbit
hole of Trump and Russia, but

435
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:23,080
maybe I'll just briefly make the
comment and see if you want to

436
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,240
go down there.
I think that a resolution

437
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,640
between Russia and the United
States with respect to Ukraine

438
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,880
is actually going to be bullish
uranium because it'll take the

439
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,480
pressure out of the downstream
being the conversion and

440
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,680
enrichment that has so
distracted all these utilities

441
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,920
for so long.
And just in addition to that,

442
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,480
the converters are going to be
saying to these utilities,

443
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,400
thanks very much for your
contract, but we actually need

444
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,160
the yellow cake delivered to our
site because things are tight

445
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,600
and we're not going to actually
in the past, it's been a

446
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:01,640
flexible arrangement in
delivering the yellow cake.

447
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,000
So that's why I think utilities
will be coming back for the

448
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,840
uranium side, which means
they're going to start trying to

449
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:12,040
wave useless pieces of paper in
front of these developers

450
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:13,840
saying, here you go, here's a
contract.

451
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,640
And guys like me are going to
say to these developers, that's

452
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,520
actually a noose around your
neck and a liability for you, as

453
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:26,040
we've seen very publicly in a
few of these, you know, restart

454
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,400
projects that are hanging
themselves on on legacy

455
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:34,040
contracts.
We we can, we can go there if if

456
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,040
you, if you want to guy, I'm not
going to talk about the, the,

457
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:39,760
the Russia Ukraine bit, but
that's an interesting point.

458
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,280
But it's, it's a bit of a theme
with like kind of the, the

459
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,160
smaller scale restarts as well,
right?

460
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:51,800
ASX Peninsula really, really
burdened by delays and blowouts

461
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,560
and and a contract liability.
Yeah.

462
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:02,560
And, you know, I mean, at $30
uranium, that contract looked

463
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,280
OK, you know, and, and even had
there been better decisions made

464
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,320
on that restart?
And I mean, I guess there were

465
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,800
some things that were beyond
their control with respect to

466
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,640
their drying and packaging.
But you know, that's the thing,

467
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,320
these utilities, it's a perfect
example.

468
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:23,360
These utilities are saying we're
here as your partner, but if you

469
00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:27,560
don't deliver us the uranium on
time, then there's going to be

470
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,760
a, a financial penalty, you
know, and you know, they're

471
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:34,040
provisioning money that needs to
be going towards the, their,

472
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,640
their, their plant restart and,
and there will feel development.

473
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:39,680
And that's what I'm saying to
all these guys.

474
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,400
You know, if you're two or three
or four years from production,

475
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:48,440
unless you have a commitment
from or a requirement from debt

476
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:52,440
providers to, to, to show price
certainty on a certain part of

477
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,960
your future production, don't do
it.

478
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,480
And if you're then, if you are
required to do it, put your

479
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:04,120
start date 12 months after
you're telling me or telling the

480
00:27:04,120 --> 00:27:05,560
market that you're going to
start.

481
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,600
So that if you do have any
delays, Because I guarantee you

482
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,480
if you start on time and you've
got a contract in 2028 with a

483
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,600
utility to deliver some pounds
and you say to them, hey, I've

484
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:20,040
actually got pounds in 2027, I
guarantee you they'll take them

485
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,280
as opposed to sitting there in
2027 saying, sorry, I've had

486
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,120
some delays, I don't have it.
And they're saying, well, you

487
00:27:27,120 --> 00:27:30,240
need to find it or pay us some
money for it.

488
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:34,240
So, you know, it's, it's been
especially down here in the ASX

489
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,360
investors, oh, we want to see a
contract, we want to see

490
00:27:36,360 --> 00:27:38,520
contracts.
It's like if you're going to get

491
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,360
cake in the can, you're a viable
project full stop.

492
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,200
But you've got to be able to do
that.

493
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,320
We're going to talk stocks,
boys, or.

494
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:48,000
Yeah.
Absolutely.

495
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,240
We'll start the probably the
latest news.

496
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:55,760
I'd say be on call last week guy
we've seen that just essentially

497
00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:00,240
got hemorrhaged after I would
say driven by the last line of

498
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:04,280
that announcement that the CEO
was departing, which was you

499
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,960
know, tell he's pretty well
regarded Fuller in the uranium

500
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,800
in the ISR industry.
And look, they I think we spoke

501
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,040
about him last week.
It just looked like even the

502
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,120
cash they had at the end of
December, over half of that was

503
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,280
due to go to boss, which the
first bit's already obviously

504
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,200
gone there.
Just looks like they're under a

505
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,280
still under a lot of financial
pressure to achieve that.

506
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,840
What's your take on non core and
the Alta Mesa?

507
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:34,160
Yeah, and everything else.
They got going on firstly, yeah,

508
00:28:35,360 --> 00:28:36,960
doesn't Boss look like a rock
star?

509
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,520
He just sold a whole bunch of
pounds at 100 U.S. dollars a

510
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,000
pound at the spot price at 65.
So I.

511
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:45,080
Think it'd be electing to.
He'd be electing to take cash, I

512
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,400
think.
I believe that would be prudent,

513
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,720
yeah.
But I mean, look, it's, it's

514
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:58,080
another perfect example of, of
restarts not being easy.

515
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,760
There was, I mean, ironically,
I, I was actually had a meeting

516
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:07,960
with both of them on, on the
Friday morning and, you know,

517
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,320
three days before it all
happened and didn't, didn't get

518
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,320
any insight that that was going
to happen.

519
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:18,880
And you know, it's a perfect
example, I guess of, of just

520
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,640
things not going right and
boards getting impatient or

521
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,600
frustrated.
I mean, we've seen it here in,

522
00:29:25,160 --> 00:29:28,680
in some ASX lifted stocks as
well, where boards have got

523
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:32,440
impatient when you could
probably argue the boards maybe

524
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,240
have a responsibility in, in
that process as well.

525
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:40,680
But, but look, I mean, Encore, I
mean, Alta Mesa, they had sort

526
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,000
of a first of all problem.
They turned the plant back on.

527
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,320
Paul Goranson, CEO built that
plant.

528
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,680
So he's a very good plant
operator and they've got 1/3 of

529
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,960
it operating and and they were
getting better recoveries and

530
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,120
better flows and than they
anticipated.

531
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,440
So they found themselves in a
little bit of a bottleneck with

532
00:29:56,440 --> 00:30:02,600
well filled development.
And, you know, they would now

533
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,240
sort of reassuring the market
that they've solved that problem

534
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,680
and that the that potential
bottleneck has been has been

535
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:10,440
rectified with getting more rigs
on.

536
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,160
You know, they they've still got
without pull there.

537
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,280
As I said, yes, there's some
expertise around that plant, but

538
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:21,600
the second Second Circuit is
basically just a few wires that

539
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,840
need to be plugged in.
They've got certainly expertise

540
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,360
to be able to do that.
But yeah, I mean, you're right,

541
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:32,480
again, it comes down to wording.
That stock got slammed because

542
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,160
the interim CEO announced it was
a was a legal officer.

543
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,680
And so immediately the US
markets assumed that because

544
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,280
they were, you know, having to
now deal with the US filing that

545
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,400
there'd been some legal issue
and that this guy was going to

546
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,000
be the only one to get them out.
What it turned out to be was

547
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,440
that the legal officer was the
only other guy that had his name

548
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,520
on, on, on documents about to go
to the SEC.

549
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:03,240
And so there was a 200 page
technical document that they

550
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:06,120
figured that he was the one that
knew that inside out, given he'd

551
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,480
read it a dozen or more or 1000
times or however many times you

552
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,680
read these types of things.
And and they didn't really think

553
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,600
that the market would say, oh
wow, the legal guys are

554
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,520
therefore there's a problem.
So as I understand it, they've

555
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,240
they've been doing calls at the
end of last week with, with

556
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:27,440
management with brokers and some
of the key shareholders,

557
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,720
investors in the in the United
States and sort of placated them

558
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,400
on that.
But I mean, again, it's just

559
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,840
another example.
You look at that price action

560
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:40,240
and say it's a 50% sell off
warranted.

561
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:45,880
And the answer is no, because
it's still a producing asset.

562
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,400
You know, they've still got
another plant that they've

563
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:51,800
proven in Rosita that they've,
they've got up and running.

564
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,480
They, they use those well fields
that from, from last cycle and

565
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:56,720
they're developing their next
one.

566
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:01,440
So you know, you kind of turn
around and say on a valuation

567
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,600
perspective, it's, it's
screening pretty cheaply.

568
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,560
You know, the good thing is, is
there's call options in the US.

569
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,960
So for me, that was an easy way
to, to flex back, back up there

570
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,280
was to, to buy some call options
on that.

571
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:18,480
So if it does does continue to
flounder around or or you know,

572
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,840
for whatever reason decide to go
lower, it's not going to hurt me

573
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:24,200
too much.
You think is boss appear to be

574
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,080
in a prime position with them
one, because if they are under

575
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:31,000
financial stress, then if they
do have to raise money and boss

576
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,520
did want to take, they're
obviously they've ain't got

577
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,480
project level interest with Alta
Mesa.

578
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,440
But if they did want to move on
them, there'd be a hell of a lot

579
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,080
cheaper on a share price basis.
But they've got the option to,

580
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,440
you know, wait for more pain if
they want to.

581
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,280
What do you think?
How do you think boss is

582
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,200
sitting?
Like is it a negative effect on

583
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:51,920
them or more of a positive long
term?

584
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:58,440
I think it's positive.
I think it's sort of gives them,

585
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,240
I mean, I've, I've not, I don't
know the details of the joint

586
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:06,160
venture agreement, but Duncan's
proven to me over 8 years to be

587
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:10,560
pretty savvy operator.
So I'd imagine that there's the

588
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,760
ability for them to get more
involved in that, in that

589
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:19,480
project if, if there was going
to be a problem and, and you

590
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:21,800
know, the reality is they've,
they've the two companies have

591
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:26,760
got a good relationship.
So, you know, if Encore for

592
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,680
whatever reason is in play,
there's potential levers that

593
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,440
could be pulled there.
Again, I don't have any of that

594
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:36,880
information and would be, you
know, sitting there thinking

595
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,640
that it would be naive to think
they're not in play down here

596
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:44,080
because, you know, they, they're
in a good jurisdiction in South

597
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:48,680
Texas there.
They've got good ability to ramp

598
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:50,120
there.
And they're also in some other

599
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:52,960
places like Wyoming and South
Dakota with some good assets.

600
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:57,480
So, so you know, I I would, it
would be silly if boss was not

601
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:00,040
having a think about things, if
if it started getting

602
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:02,600
interesting around other
parties.

603
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,080
Right.
What do you think about what

604
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:08,920
would you, you're being pretty
supportive of boss along the

605
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,560
journey, so I assume you're
bullish on him.

606
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:14,960
What do you what would you would
you like to see them go overseas

607
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,120
or like they've just picked up
the exploration JV ground in NT?

608
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,600
Hunting for another Jabberluka
like everyone else's, no doubt.

609
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:28,080
Do you think having US
operations and another

610
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:31,000
jurisdiction, another culture
would make the business a bit

611
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:32,760
more complex?
Would you rather see him stay in

612
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,600
Australia?
What are you thinking?

613
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,159
Well, I mean, you know, I mean,
firstly, I think that that he's

614
00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:44,440
got Andy Wilde working with him
now and, and Andy knows that

615
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,239
part of Australia pretty well.
It's some pretty, pretty good

616
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,120
ground up there.
So and a pretty easy way to get

617
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:54,560
a foothold into into having a
sniff around there.

618
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,000
So I think, you know, it'd be
interesting to watch, watch

619
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,560
that.
I think that that earnings

620
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,920
structured pretty well.
But yeah, I mean, look, it it

621
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:07,760
there was a reason he moved in
with that strategic joint

622
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:13,000
venture with Encore.
And, you know, it would be, it

623
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:17,880
would be, I would be much prefer
him to be in in the US with

624
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,400
those guys doing things and
running their all over things

625
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,960
where they've already got the
ability to sort of lean on the

626
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,920
Encore team than other
jurisdictions.

627
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,000
I mean, I don't see, I don't see
these.

628
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:30,200
I mean, I know he used to be in
the movie.

629
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:32,520
I don't see there's much value
out in him being there or

630
00:35:32,720 --> 00:35:36,000
Canada's too, too hard.
And you know, every other

631
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:40,720
jurisdiction's kind of marginal
if you're a player like him, you

632
00:35:40,720 --> 00:35:44,240
know, and maybe Australia gets
more interesting if the federal

633
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:48,920
election changes things And and
you know, Roger Cook relaxes or

634
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,960
Christopher Lee up there in QLD
relaxes.

635
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:54,760
Maybe there's some, you know,
there's some opportunity there,

636
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,440
but but you know, a lot of it's
needs work.

637
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:03,240
So you know again, how you can
be short Canadian developers on

638
00:36:03,240 --> 00:36:06,440
a tariff basket and not long US
uranium projects on the other

639
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:10,520
side just befuddles me.
But you know the time will come

640
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,000
there.
How do you, how do you think

641
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:16,960
Boss's attitude towards M&A in
general may have changed given

642
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,320
the the recent share price kind
of movements like there was

643
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:23,960
Jabiluka and they kind of showed
showed their hand their interest

644
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:27,120
there before everything kind of
went S with ERA?

645
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,680
That set off a bloody snowball,
didn't it?

646
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,680
Yeah.
And then Encore as well that

647
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:36,040
that deal was struck when the
stock price was was much higher

648
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,040
as well.
What do you kind of think their

649
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,720
attitude would be right now?
How they would kind of fund

650
00:36:41,720 --> 00:36:44,720
that, you know?
Yeah.

651
00:36:44,720 --> 00:36:46,720
I mean that's, that's the
problem with the whole sector,

652
00:36:46,720 --> 00:36:50,280
right.
There's there's not a huge

653
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:53,760
amount of confidence from any
CEO to really consider serious

654
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:58,640
M&A.
And even though there's some

655
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,560
phenomenal deals that could be
done, I mean, you know, you kind

656
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,880
of sit there and say, OK, yes,
your share prices is is not

657
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,920
performing, but but you know,
it's a sector wide problem.

658
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:15,400
And I mean, I think it comes
down to a, a CEO like him having

659
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:19,040
some strategic conversations
with, with the right

660
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:23,080
shareholders and, and sort of
filling them out as to what

661
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,240
their view is.
Because I mean, you know, if you

662
00:37:25,240 --> 00:37:27,480
get your, your register in
support of what you're doing and

663
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,840
you're doing something that's, I
mean, we've seen a lot of M&A

664
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,000
and consolidation in, in the
uranium sector just to get a

665
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:36,480
bigger ETF weight, right?
Like there's real no accretion.

666
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,880
A lot of it doesn't make sense.
It's land grabs.

667
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,640
It's all this sort of stuff.
They're probably all regretting

668
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,040
it now 'cause they're bigger
weights in the ETF and getting

669
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:48,200
Hammond on the way down.
But you know, it's, it's, if

670
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,520
it's a truly a creative deal
and, and you've got a group of

671
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,000
shareholders on your register
that think that that this is

672
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:59,560
truly a sort of 2020 like
opportunity where this is just

673
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,040
going to go again, then I don't
think you're going to get too

674
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,480
badly punished if you're doing
a, a deal that people believe

675
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,040
in.
I think hence why you know being

676
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:11,960
somewhere that investors are
already comfortable with you

677
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:15,120
being.
On the deal front, how are you

678
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:16,920
reflecting on on Paladin
Fission?

679
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,960
Sort of, you know, now we're in
March.

680
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,160
I think the deal kind of closed
after a pretty lengthy process

681
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,120
late December.
Dust has settled.

682
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:33,360
Inside yeah yeah well I mean I
guess the the market seems to be

683
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,040
wants to wait for what they're
going to you know they're going

684
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,440
through running through the
ruler through that project and.

685
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:40,720
And.
And looking at all the studies

686
00:38:40,720 --> 00:38:43,880
and the costings and, and what
have you, and, and they're

687
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,320
probably, you know, I wouldn't
be moving too fast on it if I

688
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,520
was them at the moment because
you'd probably want to bring

689
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,880
that out in a better market.
But yeah, I mean, I don't, I

690
00:38:55,120 --> 00:39:02,280
mean, Full disclosure, I didn't
own fishing just because of, you

691
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:05,760
know, I just had different views
on, on, on the project compared

692
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,320
to what they were telling me.
And, and, and I don't see it

693
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:14,160
being a pre 2030 project anyway
in my models.

694
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,080
I won't tell you where I've got
it starting just in case they're

695
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:21,960
listening.
But but you know, I mean it, it

696
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,280
gives them a foothold, I guess
in, in a pretty good

697
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,240
jurisdiction.
And it's, it's a much better

698
00:39:26,240 --> 00:39:28,560
asset than, than, than some of
the other things they were

699
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,160
pointing to in their portfolio.
But yeah, it's got work to do.

700
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:35,040
But again, they don't really
need to be doing much, very much

701
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,600
with it at the moment.
Investors and shareholders have

702
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:42,320
sort of got over the fact that
the deal's done with the benefit

703
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,280
of hindsight.
Was it done at the right time?

704
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,960
It's the deal's done, you know,
so it's something they can point

705
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:49,680
to as an an eventual second
project.

706
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,000
Do you do you have comfort on
their on their balance sheet?

707
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,720
Obviously they you know,
absorbed a bunch of the cash

708
00:39:54,720 --> 00:39:58,680
from from fishing, which is
handy and the last kind of

709
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:02,360
quarterly, but you know, maybe
showed things were OK.

710
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:04,520
But it came out in the half of
your accounts that there was

711
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:09,120
actually a pretty chunky prepaid
in there, which you know was it

712
00:40:09,240 --> 00:40:12,200
was in the was in the detail.
Accounting for a good chunk of

713
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:16,000
operating cash flow, so you know
where how do you sit on the on

714
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,200
the on the balance sheet front
for Paladin?

715
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:29,320
I mean, I'm, I'm more focused
on, on what it looks like in the

716
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:36,040
fourth quarter, you know,
because regardless of what they

717
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,760
were saying at the beginning and
they, they kind of learnt the

718
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:43,440
hard way those stockpiles are
and not an ore body.

719
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:47,520
And, you know, there was plenty
of sort of stories as to what

720
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,000
sort of material was getting
chucked on those at the end of

721
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,360
the days.
And you know, they're going to

722
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,160
me, they're going to have to
sort of prove that, that they

723
00:40:55,160 --> 00:41:00,920
can ramp up the mining of that
ore body successfully when they

724
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:05,520
go into mining, which kind of
has me just holding out to the

725
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,480
to the third quarter.
And just, you know, once I get

726
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,240
some confidence there, Oh, don't
worry too much about the balance

727
00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:17,600
sheet because they'll be able to
get a, a consistent grade and,

728
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:22,520
and be able to, you know, prove
their ability to ramp that that

729
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:24,760
asset a bit better.
But, you know, they're kind of

730
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,640
just in a weird, weird zone
here.

731
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,520
And you know, with all the smoke
and mirrors about timing of

732
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:33,640
deliveries and sales and you
know this sale missed that

733
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:39,520
quarter and what have you, you
know, I don't anyway it's, it's

734
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,400
not a, a core position for at
the moment.

735
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:48,320
They we always set up on site
wise plus or equals more or what

736
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:50,680
have been what happened and with
tipping those trucks I think.

737
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,840
The developers guy, the ones of
ones of interest on the ASX I

738
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,400
can think of.
You know, Bannerman Deep yellow

739
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:05,480
the in in Namibia.
Are you, are you just thinking

740
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:08,400
that they get delayed in this
kind of environment sort of

741
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,040
further and further
incrementally?

742
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,200
Yeah, I mean, look, there was
obviously a site visit there

743
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:18,640
after in Davao and a bunch of
brokers and investors saw

744
00:42:18,720 --> 00:42:22,760
Paladin, saw Bannerman deep
Yellow and maybe one or two

745
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,240
others.
And, you know, I think a lot of

746
00:42:26,240 --> 00:42:31,960
them came back quite invigorated
as to the the site preparation

747
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,080
that Bannerman had been doing.
And so from that perspective,

748
00:42:36,080 --> 00:42:39,720
you know, I kind of look at them
and, and say, you know, they're

749
00:42:39,720 --> 00:42:42,680
definitely making the right
noises and definitely preparing

750
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:44,440
themselves.
And, you know, like they've got

751
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:49,640
a reasonably long timeline
before they actually get pounds

752
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:53,080
out.
So but yeah, it's going to be

753
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,080
the next six months, you know,
get through June.

754
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:01,600
And you know, I think you'll
definitely, I mean, what I think

755
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:05,720
is potentially the, the, the,
the, the pinch point, there will

756
00:43:05,720 --> 00:43:11,480
be price and then, you know, the
cost of debt or, or, or they can

757
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,400
go to the equity market, but
everything else they're doing is

758
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:17,800
kind of preparing themselves.
However, that doesn't

759
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:19,680
necessarily mean that that
continues, right?

760
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,800
So if the price is not there,
then they probably just delay a

761
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,200
little bit.
And, you know, like, Brandon's

762
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,960
been quite clear on that and
Gav's been running around town

763
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,320
here last week updating
everybody as to, to to what

764
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,520
things look like.
So, you know, they're making

765
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,520
progress.
You know, Deep Yellow is taking

766
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,280
a slightly more conservative
approach where John's saying I'm

767
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:42,280
ready to go, but I I'm not
willing to do anything until

768
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,920
until the price is right.
And, you know, he's sort of

769
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,520
March in the end of this month,
I think.

770
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,400
Isn't he is, is that, is that
where he is at the moment, end

771
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:52,800
of March?
Or if I do, which was December,

772
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,600
Yeah.
So, you know, the problem with

773
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:01,720
setting a date is you've already
slipped it once, but I wouldn't

774
00:44:01,720 --> 00:44:05,680
be upset with him if he slipped
it again if he didn't think the

775
00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,120
market conditions are right to
go and do something there.

776
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:11,840
So, you know, there might be
others that that kind of say

777
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,240
what's going on.
But you know, I'm a really firm

778
00:44:14,240 --> 00:44:18,120
believer that like Kenicka is
kind of saying and and what the

779
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,480
conversion and enrichment guys,
man saying in the market, you

780
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,560
know, prove there's a market for
our pounds.

781
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,200
And if that manifests itself in
price, then we'll go on, go on,

782
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,200
make the decision, you know, to
build.

783
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,480
But we're not going to get
landed out here like a shag in

784
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,640
the rock when you guys decide
you don't want the pennants

785
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,200
because they can't go on the
spot market.

786
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:42,960
So I'm not too worried about a
couple of those projects because

787
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:47,240
as I said, jurisdiction's fine,
permits are fine, you know, long

788
00:44:47,240 --> 00:44:48,560
lead items, all that sort of
stuff.

789
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:53,320
It it seems that it's just price
that's holding back or end.

790
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:57,840
OR or energy flagged FID for I
think it was roughly this

791
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:02,200
quarter as well.
Mauritania not not in the movie.

792
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:03,400
Do you think that gets pushed
to?

793
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,480
You know, look, they've, they've
kind of surprised me, to be

794
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,840
honest.
They've, it wasn't that long ago

795
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:18,600
that Mauritania had zero nuclear
IAE, i.e., AE and none of that.

796
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:22,120
No policies, no government, no
legislation, no radioactive

797
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:23,840
handling, no transport, no
waste.

798
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,240
And so that country's come a
long way.

799
00:45:26,720 --> 00:45:31,440
And you know, they seem quite
comfortable with the fact that

800
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,800
they've solved a bunch of those,
a bunch of those issues around

801
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,040
what they need for developing.
But again, yeah, it's going to

802
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,360
come down to are they going to
be able to get the price they

803
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:49,360
need to secure the debt that
they need and other the, the

804
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:52,640
debt providers they're talking
to, are they going to be in a

805
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,200
position to move?
Are they forced to, we're not

806
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,200
forced to, they go down the
route of, of a joint venture

807
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:05,160
with, with a, a sovereign nation
to, you know, to, to, to, to get

808
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:07,960
financing to do that.
And, you know, for, as I said,

809
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:12,800
it, it comes down to like to
them, it's, it's funding like

810
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,200
they need to solve that funding.
They need to either be able to

811
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,440
convince investors that it's a
good jurisdiction, they can get

812
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:23,640
the things done or there's, you
know, a global agency or, or a

813
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,280
joint venture.
So there's, there's still a few

814
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:26,320
things that need to happen
there.

815
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,720
But you know, as I said, it's
kind of I've been happily

816
00:46:29,720 --> 00:46:31,800
surprised as to the progress
they've made in country.

817
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:36,080
I've, I've got a couple on your,
your portfolio allocation that

818
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:37,400
I'm interested to hear your
thoughts on.

819
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,960
Just going back to what you said
earlier about incentive prices

820
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,680
pushing out because of all these
costs that have come out over

821
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:48,280
the past year or so.
You know, ultimately that's not

822
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:52,000
great for for the miners
themselves because that hammers

823
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,920
the the profit, but uranium
price going even higher.

824
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:58,480
So, so firstly, how does that
kind of tweak how you allocate?

825
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,680
Do you think more about putting
more of the fund into physical

826
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:02,840
on the back of that sort of
news?

827
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:10,840
Yeah, I mean, I've I've been
kind of wrong on on, on sort of

828
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:13,880
backing the the successful
restart stories.

829
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:18,400
But then I was looking through
sort of performance elsewhere

830
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,520
and there's not many places
you've been right, you've just

831
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:28,440
been less wrong.
And, and so, you know, I, I have

832
00:47:28,440 --> 00:47:33,520
not moved into spot.
And at one stage I was kind of

833
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:37,040
playing that spot discount game
that I was talking about before,

834
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,280
you know, when it was a big
discount, buying it and when it

835
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:43,840
came in, sell it back out.
And then I kind of realised that

836
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:48,720
I was probably participate, you
know, contributing to, to, to

837
00:47:48,720 --> 00:47:51,480
making my own life more
difficult because it was some of

838
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,480
that was not letting the spot go
to a premium.

839
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:58,600
And so, and, and I always kind
of, you know, glass half full

840
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:01,680
was thinking that these turning
points around the just around

841
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,600
the corner and that, you know, I
wanted to be in the equity.

842
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:10,600
So, so if anything, it's, it's
I've not been anywhere near.

843
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:15,200
I've not really added very much
in explorers except, you know, 2

844
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:19,080
that are doing something.
And I've kind of avoided a lot

845
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,040
of that ACM in in the bottom end
of the capital stack because I

846
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,400
just think that's you need to
prove the thesis is back.

847
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:30,080
You need to, to, to start
shaking out these shorts and,

848
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:34,400
you know, and, and, and then
they'll all come and raise money

849
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,000
anyway because they haven't been
able to.

850
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:38,480
So, you know, if you think
there's an exploration story

851
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,320
that that is going to get some
legs and I'll get it on a

852
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:44,680
capital rise.
So, yeah, I have sort of been a

853
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,080
little bit heavier on the
because the reality is when

854
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:51,200
those heavily shorted stocks
start moving, you know, they're

855
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:55,040
going to run pretty hard.
And and hopefully I'll go on a

856
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:59,360
global tour and, you know, go
and meet some of these blokes in

857
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:01,680
Manhattan that are now mixing
cocktails because they've lost

858
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,720
their jobs.
So things short uranium, but.

859
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:06,600
I'd love an invite to that to
that dinner.

860
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:09,160
Just one more quickly on the on
the portfolio allocation while

861
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:12,160
we're on it.
You mentioned last year, I think

862
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:16,520
in an interview that you did
kind of recently that you put a

863
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,320
lot of the fun toward the tech
side of things giving you

864
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:23,720
flexibility in the nuclear
opportunities name.

865
00:49:23,720 --> 00:49:28,040
So I think you, you quoted 25
odd percent allocation towards

866
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:30,880
these things.
I'm, I'm a little less aware of

867
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,120
how that basket has kind of
performed relative to the the

868
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:37,520
uranium kind of names.
Is the allocation still quite

869
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,440
chunky on on that side?
Have you changed your thinking

870
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:42,440
in recent times?
Well, the the good.

871
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:46,520
So it was actually up around 35%
on a national basis, but most of

872
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,280
the exposure was via call
options.

873
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:55,120
So, so it's, there was a few
stocks, I mean, there was a few

874
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:57,680
names where I had still had
stock as well.

875
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:01,240
And, and after we got a little
bit of a bounce on after that

876
00:50:01,240 --> 00:50:05,000
DeepSeek stuff, I, I hedged most
of that out with some put

877
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:06,760
options as well, any of the
stock I had.

878
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:11,440
And then I'm just starting to
dip my toe back into some cool

879
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:14,120
options in these baskets because
it's it's just so volatile.

880
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:16,800
It's just it's hard to like
there's some of them are

881
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:21,040
screaming at me saying buy me,
buy me, but I just can't.

882
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,240
I mean, I don't want to.
I don't think I'm going to miss

883
00:50:24,240 --> 00:50:30,360
the turn because it was such a
sort of thematic and meme that

884
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:33,960
that, you know, a lot of
tourists are in there and a lot

885
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,920
of tourists are out And I don't
think they're necessarily

886
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:40,040
heavily short at it, but they're
just not there at the moment.

887
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:42,400
So, so I kind of got some call
options there.

888
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,160
The, the positions I have are
hedged out and, and most of them

889
00:50:46,160 --> 00:50:48,760
aren't causing me any grief if
they go down.

890
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:54,040
So we'll just sort of play that
one by and see how it, see how

891
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:56,520
it runs.
I mean, the reality is none of

892
00:50:56,520 --> 00:50:58,680
it's changed.
None of that thesis has changed.

893
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:03,000
You know, Oh my God, whoever it
was, Microsoft cancelled a few

894
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:08,240
leases, you know, which some
bank in the, in the US or Canada

895
00:51:08,240 --> 00:51:11,720
reported and, and everyone sort
of went, oh, but you know,

896
00:51:12,240 --> 00:51:15,240
that's more getting hit on just
rotation, right?

897
00:51:15,240 --> 00:51:17,680
There's this sort of rotation
coming out, a lot of that stuff.

898
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:19,800
And they were the kind of
investors that were there.

899
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:22,760
So, so I'm playing it.
So I kind of cautious and as I

900
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:26,720
said, I was lucky that it's just
such a good option market there.

901
00:51:26,720 --> 00:51:31,920
I was able to not have too much
of that deep, deep, deep

902
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:35,480
heartburn from deep sea.
How are you weighing up all

903
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:38,000
those as you're saying, if
everything's screaming at you,

904
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,800
buy me, buy me, buy me at the
moment.

905
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:44,200
But is if spot is going down and
there's so hard to get info on

906
00:51:44,360 --> 00:51:47,520
who's contracted, who's not.
So like, well, boss, we were

907
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:51,120
talking about previously, like I
think we're aware.

908
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,600
I think we're pretty aware
they're going to be, they've

909
00:51:53,600 --> 00:51:56,400
been selling into the spot and
then possibly going to.

910
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,920
So you can see why those
equities are going down because

911
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,920
a lot of them haven't yet to put
the big contracts in.

912
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,880
But how do you why up what's
cheap and what's not when the

913
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,600
Sprite spot price is down and
not knowing what they've

914
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:12,920
actually contracted out or not?
Yeah.

915
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:17,200
I mean it's, it's so that that's
a really good question.

916
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:21,280
I think are kind of looking at
at so of those who are

917
00:52:21,280 --> 00:52:24,840
restarting, I mean, the reality
is most of them aren't producing

918
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:28,480
enough pounds to to really
'cause themselves a problem if

919
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:30,520
they were to just sit them in
the converters.

920
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,800
You know, So you look at at at,
I mean, you said boss.

921
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:38,200
I mean, he's actually just as I
said, just probably monetize

922
00:52:38,200 --> 00:52:40,760
that 250,000 lbs at a hundred
U.S. dollars.

923
00:52:41,240 --> 00:52:44,320
So, you know, like there's cash
flow from that Encore loan that

924
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:47,480
that means they could probably
just now ship some drums and sit

925
00:52:47,480 --> 00:52:51,160
them in Confidant or Chemical or
wherever they're going and

926
00:52:51,160 --> 00:52:54,560
White, you know, it doesn't need
to do anything. the US guys,

927
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:59,800
there was a few, yes, that was
selling one probably continued

928
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:01,760
into the 70s but has stopped
again now.

929
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,880
So, but again, that was sort of
inventory they had.

930
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:07,680
They're not necessarily
replacing it with millions of

931
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:09,320
pounds.
There's no pressure for them.

932
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:13,960
But yeah, I mean, I think some
of them, there is a thought

933
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:17,760
process that the longer this
goes on, the the more desperate

934
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,520
some of these guys might get
and, and, and sell their pounds.

935
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:24,400
But you know, as I said, it's
not actually a huge amount of

936
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,920
pounds that that, that, that are
sitting around as a result of

937
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,080
that.
I mean, to the earlier point I

938
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:33,320
made, you know, I look, I look
at the US for example, and you

939
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,480
know, from, from like you're
seeing Laird Encore at these

940
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:40,200
levels, they're producing pounds
and Canadian pounds are

941
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:42,640
allegedly going to get 10% more
expensive.

942
00:53:43,360 --> 00:53:46,560
I mean, it's just I, I can't
understand how some of these

943
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:51,360
guys who kind of through most of
their CapEx, most of their cost

944
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:55,880
issues and I've got can and you
know, cake and a can ready to

945
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,400
sell.
I can't sort of see why they're

946
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,640
all trading down as much as the,
the whole sector.

947
00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:03,480
They should be trading a little
bit better.

948
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,160
But yeah, I mean, anybody with a
legacy contract you got to look

949
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:12,720
carefully at because if they're
behind on their ramp up and

950
00:54:12,720 --> 00:54:15,720
they're just producing enough to
deliver into a contract, what's

951
00:54:15,720 --> 00:54:19,120
the price of that?
Not going to be 80 bucks.

952
00:54:20,720 --> 00:54:24,120
Now I don't think any of them
got them fixed, is that if if

953
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:27,800
spot's 20 odd plus percent below
term which it is at the moment,

954
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:31,160
like surely there must be more
activity happening with carry

955
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:34,400
trades with spot at the moment
or not yet?

956
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:41,960
I mean, look, I guess part of
the problem is most of the

957
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:45,040
utilities aren't very well
capitalised.

958
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:50,240
So they can't, it's hard for
them or harder at these prices

959
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:54,760
to, to run a big carry book
because the notional amounts

960
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,680
that are out are, are larger,
right.

961
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:01,800
So what about trade utility?
Well, that's most of them.

962
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,760
I mean, you know, like we're
not, we're not, we're not.

963
00:55:05,240 --> 00:55:10,080
This is not a, a copper or a, or
a iron ore or a met coal or a,

964
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,520
or a fuel oil market.
You know, we, we don't have the

965
00:55:12,520 --> 00:55:16,920
Glencore's, the traffic eras,
the, the Mercurias, the, and the

966
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:20,160
banks in this trade, right?
Like most of the traders in

967
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:25,200
uranium, no one has ever heard
of and, and even physical

968
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,480
traders and other commodities
have never heard of these guys.

969
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:31,760
So it's just a, it's a really
different, there's only one bank

970
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:36,040
in it and you know, potentially
the most well known as Traxxas

971
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:40,960
out of the US who, you know,
very specific in what they do.

972
00:55:41,280 --> 00:55:45,000
So and the utilities aren't
there, right?

973
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:50,720
Like at a $20 price, they had
the ability because there was

974
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,440
brokers, there was other
intermediaries getting involved

975
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,480
and getting in the middle of
that and kind of financing it

976
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:57,920
all.
But at, you know, at $65

977
00:55:57,920 --> 00:56:01,320
uranium, the, the dollar amounts
that you got to do for this.

978
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:03,800
And So what are you going to do?
You're going to carry 100,000

979
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,480
lbs for a utility.
They don't have the time to sit

980
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:08,840
there and negotiate that sort of
stuff.

981
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:10,680
They're trying to get their
conversion and enrichment out of

982
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:12,320
Russia.
So you know.

983
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,640
What about next Gen.
God have probably finished off

984
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:18,560
like you'd say one of the more
influential.

985
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:20,960
Then again, you don't know
what's influential on the market

986
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:25,200
these days out of consultant
problem next Gen., but like

987
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:28,920
quite closer than ever to
potentially be be doing some

988
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:32,800
sort of pre construction
activities like or like to

989
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:36,760
really start progressing towards
some sort of development.

990
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,640
Where where are they at?
What are we going to say out of

991
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:41,240
them this year?
Do you think in terms of

992
00:56:41,240 --> 00:56:47,000
potential funding site activity
once that sort of administrative

993
00:56:47,000 --> 00:56:49,160
part gets passed by the
government?

994
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:52,920
Yeah, I mean, that's exactly it,
right.

995
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:57,320
I mean, there's a an assumption
based on the timing of the of

996
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:01,400
the Denison hearings that that
next Gen. will be pushed back

997
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,880
into early 26.
You know, and that's just

998
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:08,960
literally an assumption because
Denison or a month ahead of next

999
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:12,640
Gen. in some other, you know,
bureaucratic thing.

1000
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,360
You know, it'll be interesting
to see what happens.

1001
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:18,640
You know, there's obviously a
new Prime Minister in Canada as

1002
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:23,760
of today, Mark Carney, sort of
be interesting to see whether he

1003
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:27,600
drastically wants to change
things around, around

1004
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:29,720
potentially.
I mean, you think about it,

1005
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:33,000
right?
You have got Trump wanting to

1006
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:36,720
put a 10% tariff on, on all your
energy exports to the United

1007
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,080
States.
Why wouldn't you try to remove

1008
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,680
some of the regulatory burdens
to, to, to, to, to say to him,

1009
00:57:42,680 --> 00:57:44,440
oh, look, there's, there's a
whole bunch more that could come

1010
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:46,760
on.
He's he's ex Goldman Sachs too,

1011
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:48,400
So Trump's dealing with a banker
now.

1012
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:51,760
Yeah, yeah.
The Bank of England Governor,

1013
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,640
Bank of Canada Governor, he's on
the board of Brookfield

1014
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:56,080
Renewables.
So he was part of that

1015
00:57:56,200 --> 00:58:00,600
Westinghouse deal what Chemical
did with Brookfield Infra.

1016
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:04,160
So yeah, he's well, well, well
trodden, well trodden career

1017
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:08,240
man, you know, but Next Gen.
kind of sitting there saying,

1018
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:10,120
look, we've got the support of
all the nations.

1019
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:12,360
Don't look at Denison's
timetable.

1020
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:16,800
You know, we've got the Metis
Nation, which, you know, it was

1021
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:20,440
that part of that news headline
saying blah, blah, blah, which

1022
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:23,360
is completely irrelevant, not
related to the Root 1 project at

1023
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:26,960
all, you know, but, but Lee and
the team are saying you're

1024
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:30,240
right.
Once we get this administration

1025
00:58:30,240 --> 00:58:33,840
done on the, on the, the hearing
date for the the final sign off,

1026
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:37,840
we're ready to go.
And, you know, I kind of, it's,

1027
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:41,200
it's hard not to believe them
being outside last year and

1028
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,760
seeing the preparations they're
doing.

1029
00:58:43,760 --> 00:58:46,080
I mean, everything about that
site is built to be a mine,

1030
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:47,720
right?
You know, you go up to all these

1031
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,720
Athabasca sites and you, you're
on an ATV going over rocks and

1032
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:56,720
pebbles and boulders and, and,
and bogs, like everything about

1033
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:58,600
that site they've set up to, to
be a mine.

1034
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:07,760
So, and the reality is yes,
leverage to spot whatever, but

1035
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:10,920
it's, it's still a phenomenal
ore body.

1036
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:14,520
And you know, you kind of sit
there and say, if you believe

1037
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:19,320
$65, is it trading fairly here?
I, I think the answer is

1038
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,640
absolutely no.
If you look at the term price

1039
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:25,240
and say, is it trading fairly
compared to the term price?

1040
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:30,920
No, it's bloody it's, it's
ridiculously low valuation

1041
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:32,400
because that ore body is
phenomenal.

1042
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:37,840
So, you know, I think they
again, it's just they're in a

1043
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:40,400
short basket of all these banks
or Canadian tariffs, which they

1044
00:59:40,400 --> 00:59:44,680
shouldn't be.
And there's a whole bunch of

1045
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:49,080
people pointing at headlines
that that when you actually peel

1046
00:59:49,080 --> 00:59:52,160
the layer of the onion back, you
work out that OK, yes, there's a

1047
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:54,800
spat between the menace nation
and and some exploration

1048
00:59:54,800 --> 00:59:56,600
tenements with the Saskatchewan
government.

1049
00:59:56,720 --> 01:00:00,080
Nothing to do with next Gen.
And then they came out and in

1050
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,760
support and said we're 100%
supportive and the market didn't

1051
01:00:02,760 --> 01:00:04,600
respond to it.
I mean, it's, it's again the

1052
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:06,120
mindset where the market is at
the moment.

1053
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:10,720
Very good, it'd be interesting
once I get deep and can start

1054
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:15,200
drilling in between themselves
and PLS and see what else there

1055
01:00:15,200 --> 01:00:16,600
is.
I know they've had other hits,

1056
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:20,440
but yeah, that's what the the
theory is like that old thing

1057
01:00:20,440 --> 01:00:22,440
joining up.
That's like potentially a lot of

1058
01:00:22,440 --> 01:00:25,240
uranium coming out of that area
once though.

1059
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:27,720
Yeah, two dope holes to drill at
the moment.

1060
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:32,520
Yeah, Yeah, no, exactly right.
I mean, you know, it's, it's

1061
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:37,320
it's leverage Beta is, is, is
that one, it's spot goes up.

1062
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:39,760
That thing's going to RIP
because, you know, again, you

1063
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,640
can own that and does better for
you than owning the the spots,

1064
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:45,920
you know, plus, as I said, the
the whole body.

1065
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,560
Boys, you got anything?
I think we're all out, guy.

1066
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,240
I really appreciate your time.
Thank you so much, Guy So.

1067
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:56,720
Intrational, mate, but hopefully
what are we like, you know,

1068
01:00:56,840 --> 01:01:00,080
second week of March, Hopefully
this comes out just as

1069
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,520
everything's turning and.
We're running hard and.

1070
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:07,280
You got till Friday the.
Bottom, bottom and we bounce up

1071
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:10,040
from here mate.
Yeah, that's gonna be the

1072
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:11,560
headline when it comes out.
Guy Keller.

1073
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:12,960
No, no, don't say pick the
bottom.

1074
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:15,960
Must say something different.
That's right, just keep picking

1075
01:01:15,960 --> 01:01:18,320
it and you will pick the bottom
at some point.

1076
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,880
It's the title of the Yard.
The episode mate, you ready

1077
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,120
made?
Easy boys, But as I said it, I

1078
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:26,760
don't.
I think it's the thesis hasn't

1079
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:28,680
changed.
There we go.

1080
01:01:28,760 --> 01:01:31,120
What?
What was his last line there?

1081
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:35,320
Guy Keller picks the bottom.
It's like all the people that

1082
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,120
pick the JFC.
If you just keep picking it,

1083
01:01:37,120 --> 01:01:40,080
you'll pick it eventually.
To be confirmed, I reckoned.

1084
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:42,640
Yeah, it's right.
Thanks to all the partners as

1085
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,080
always.
In the show we had K Drill as

1086
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:47,560
well as Quattro Project
Engineering.

1087
01:01:47,560 --> 01:01:48,320
Who has we got?
Maddie.

1088
01:01:48,440 --> 01:01:50,840
By Joe Don't forget about the
100 bucks off for Oz IMM

1089
01:01:50,840 --> 01:01:52,800
underground operators links in
the show notes.

1090
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:55,680
We've got MMS, we've got
grounded, We've got CMB ground,

1091
01:01:55,680 --> 01:02:00,400
sports, CR insurance, WA water
boars, swig and cross boundary

1092
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:01,320
energy.
Who wrote?

1093
01:02:01,400 --> 01:02:04,560
Who wrote the information
contained in this episode of

1094
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:06,960
Money of Mine is of general
nature only and does not take

1095
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:10,480
into account the objectives,
financial situation or needs of

1096
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:13,160
any particular person.
Before making any investment

1097
01:02:13,160 --> 01:02:16,200
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1098
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,360
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1099
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:21,560
financial situation and needs.