Why the Lithium Market Has Bottomed with YJ Lee

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Righto money miners are still a
bit hoarse.

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Doesn't it doesn't cry I'm.
Still in there.

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I'm still in there.
And tell, tell you what, who's

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still here?
Axis Mining Technology, that

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trusted advisor for drill hole
survey instrumentation.

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And then this episode has a
theme of transition because we

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always recommend drilling
companies to transition their

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drill hole survey
instrumentation to Axis Mining

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Technology.
And on the back of that theme,

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why not bring in a resident
expert about energy transition,

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The great YJ Lee calling in from
Singapore from Arcane Capital.

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YJ, welcome to the show mate.
How are you colour?

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Hello, good to be here guys.
Oh mate, we always I just when

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you got good energy at the
start, it just flows mate.

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Yeah, like transition energy.
It's all guy, JD, Trav lead it

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away, give his CV who we got on
today.

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Right, I'm really excited to to
speak with with YJ.

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YJ he's got a he's he's been
responsible for some of the, you

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know, pretty interesting thought
pieces that have have have done

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the rounds on on Twitter.
I think he's he's done more to

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kind of distribute what the, you
know, what the the pillar cost

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curve is in China more than sort
of anyone else.

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He's, you know, clearly a pretty
switched on guy.

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He's in the right part of the
world and you know, he he kind

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of follows what's happening in
China a hell of a lot closer

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than we're capable of sitting
here in Perth pre pre

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conversation.
You know, we're just speaking

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with YJ about the China stimulus
that was just announced.

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And he goes, yeah, I saw that
coming.

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You know, that's just an example
of kind of, you know, how kind

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of tuned in he is.
And I think with that, he's

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going to, you know, bring a
wealth of wealth of insight that

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we, we don't have.
But you know, YJ, I'm really

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interested to kind of unpack
your thesis because just if I

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could kind of summarise how I
interpret your views.

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It's, it's basically that, that,
you know, analysts in the market

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in general are kind of are, are
underestimating what the, what

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you know, what the, what the
reality is going to be for, for,

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you know, the, the coming
lithium demand deficit that as

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you forecast it, you think it'll
sort of surprise to the upside.

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Yeah.
So I think what we are seeing

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right here is the typical human
psychology of always projecting

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the current state forward,
right, for the next few years,

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you know, and pretending things
don't quickly change, you know,

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just like this.
And we saw this a few years ago

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when everything was crazy high.
Lithium was $80,000 a tonne and

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everyone was saying higher for
longer.

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I, I must admit I was not one of
those who, who was, was a short

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seller at that point, you know,
who saw the crash coming.

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I, I wouldn't claim to that.
I did think that it would come

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down a little bit and stabilise
at a lower point.

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So yes, I was caught out a
little bit by the African

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supply, the new epitolized
supply.

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But at the same time, you know,
it was, you know, patently

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ridiculous that that current
situation would persist into

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Infinity.
And so here we are at the bottom

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of the cycle.
And what we are seeing is that

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people are saying, oh, you know,
there's more and more supply

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coming out.
Demand is slowing down.

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You know, we are not seeing the
demand come in.

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I think both pieces are probably
wrong in the sense that demand

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is probably being underestimated
right now.

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And there are many sources of
new demand that we can talk

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about.
And supply is probably

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overestimated right now given
the major cutbacks that we've

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seen.
About that African supply, Why,

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Jay, how much was real?
How much was speculation from

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your opinion?
I would not say that that

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African supply is speculation.
If you look at the, I mean the,

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the tarnish going, going out of
Africa, if you look at the

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Chinese companies moving into
Africa in the big way, what

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they're saying on their
accounts, on their minds, the

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progress updates, the tarnishes
that they are at least aiming to

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produce in the next few years,
It's probably real.

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But we have to also be aware
that that tarnish is not SC 6 or

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SC even 5.5.
A lot of it is coming out at

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probably grades of three, 3 1/2,
you know.

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And yeah, so that tarnish is
probably overestimated in terms

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of lithium content.
Why Jay, we are, we're sort of

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supply people, you know,
obviously based in Australia

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focused on the the miners.
So why don't we start on the

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supply side before we get into
the demand side of the equation?

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What why do you sort of say that
the the forecast that the sell

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side and whichever sort of other
analysts you kind of speak to

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are overstated in the in the
coming period?

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Yeah.
All right.

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So I think you guys saw my
slides, but let me first

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describe how we look at the
supply side here, here at Arcane

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Capital.
Well, actually, should I have

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introduced myself in the company
a little bit earlier, mate, you

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just do what you want.
Sure.

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Anyway, I will do to give you a
bit of a background.

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At Arcane Capital, we managed 2
funds, one in Luxembourg and one

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in Singapore.
The one in Luxembourg has a 15

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year track record.
I think our our returns are

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pretty good.
We delivered 240% returns over

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15 years.
That averages to about 8% a

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year.
And you know that the SNP clean

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and the Bloomberg alternative
indices were down about 45% over

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this period or -1 in 2%.
So we kind of outperformed this

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these indices by about 910% per
year.

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So that's our original fund.
And I think that's based mostly

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based off top down and bottom up
research that we do.

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So in Singapore actually just
this year, I'm quite excited

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because we just launched
Singapore's first green medals

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fund, it's called the Arcane
Green Medal Fund.

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And this fund focuses purely on
the miners that you know, we are

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talking about today.
And so how let so let me talk

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since I've given you that bit of
a background, Let me share then

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how we do our supply analysis.
What we do is that we track

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every single lithium mine in the
world that we can find any

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information about.
So on my spreadsheet, I've got

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96 companies and these are
companies with firm mine plants

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or producing mines, OK, not, not
the speculative or re drill kind

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of companies.
So 96 companies, 114 lithium

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mines around the world.
I think that captures at least

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9598% of the supply out there.
And then we forecast their

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production year by year from the
last few years to the to the end

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of the decade 2030.
And doing this, we can build an

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entire picture of how the supply
is going to look like in the

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next few years.
And what I can share, I mean,

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the key take away from 22 main
points from this supply analysis

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is that one, the market can be a
lot larger than people think

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based on this supply analysis.
If you assume that lithium

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prices are high enough to make
all of this supply come online,

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the potential supply can be
about 4 million tonnes.

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LCE nobody's saying 4 right now.
They're all in the low threes,

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right?
So that's on a mine by mine

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analysis, we can get to 4, but
the lithium price has to be

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there.
And 2nd, we did a bit of

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longitudinal analysis on our own
analysis compared our February

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forecast to today's forecast.
And we've seen actually global

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delays and shutdowns of mines
basically reducing supply in the

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next two years by about 17 and
21%.

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That's pretty big and not enough
people are talking about it

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right now.
Actually, if you guys want, you

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can pull up the slides, you
know, show it on screen.

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We can talk a little bit more
about each area if you like as

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well.
Yeah, I mean that that that's an

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interesting point, right,
Because the these you know, cost

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curves or you know, supply
forecasts, they are dynamic.

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You know, there's it's not like
you kind of you produce them at

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a point in time and then and
that's what's going to happen

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sort of two years out.
It's like, no, as as the price

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comes down, these miners have
every incentive to, to curtail

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production and, and, and hence
your analysis has to, has to be

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dynamic as well.
There, there was 11, you know,

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part of your, of your, your
forecast and your kind of cost

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curves.
You know, you, you put out which

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yeah, like obviously gathered a
lot of attention because of the,

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the lack of the ability of the,
the West to somehow, you know,

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translate the, the, the, you
know, public document sentiment.

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Like it releases everything from
out of China.

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But you know, you've gone as
kind of as deep as, as anyone on

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the, on what the reported kind
of costs are from the Lipidilite

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operations in China.
And I was, I was keen to keen to

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just get your thoughts on what
you like, what you found when

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you put that kind of cost curve
together for the Lipidilite

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operations.
Wow, that, that was a month long

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operation in itself, you know,
trying to get all the data,

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trying to find the primary
sources as much as we can.

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So a little bit about how we did
it.

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We went into every single
company, Chinese company that

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owned a Lipidolite mine that we
are aware of.

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And along the way, of course,
some new names came up, and

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there was a pleasant surprise.
Maybe not for lithium producers,

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but for us, yes.
And we went into their official

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WeChat accounts.
We went into their quarterly and

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annual reports.
And these Chinese companies, you

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know, they don't release nice
corporate presentations like

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Western companies do.
You know, there's no shiny

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presentation deck that gives you
everything you want in at a

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glance.
What?

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Do they?
What do they put out instead?

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Words.
Words.

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Yeah.
Look at that annual report.

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Hundreds of pages of Chinese
words just running down page

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after page after page, tables
and numbers and words.

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You know, wow, it's it was, it
was, it was.

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And do do you sometimes just get
market sensitive information

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just coming out in these WeChat
groups?

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No, they're not really market
sensitive the way we think they

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are, but they do share some.
Oh, and I forgot to mention as

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well the Chinese media articles.
So some of some of these

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journalists do go to the
companies, talk to them about

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their costs.
Sometimes they disclose

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something, maybe a range, maybe
a number.

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But so we have to put all these
little pieces of information

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together and see whether it all
makes a coherent sense.

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And we did find some, yes, I
think it all came together with

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some interesting implications.
One, the size of the market

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obviously was a little bit
larger than what people were

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thinking in 2022.
And 2, the cost was a lot lower

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than some people would say.
You know Once Upon a time people

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would say OK, brine rock, maybe
clay and then all the people

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lights as part of you know this
imaginary cost curve going up.

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But no, we found that Chinese
Lapido light actually spends

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almost the entire global cost
curve in itself.

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We have low cost operations at
you know the equivalent of 5000

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a tonne and we have high cost
operations at at about 60,000 a

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tonne.
Wow.

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So you've got everything from
from Pilgrim Minerals to call

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Lithium is, you know, in that
lipid, lipid alight cost curve.

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Yeah.
Wow.

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So there.
So there is actually low cost

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lipid alight operations.
Oh, yeah, of course, of course.

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Yeah.
Some of it is probably due to,

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well, better, better technology
they have in the mind, you know,

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better equipment or a lower
stripping ratio at the mind than

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most people realise.
And to a large extent I've, I've

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learned that some of these, you
know, OK, for example, one of

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the goal companies I met
yesterday has a pretty low

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grade, right?
But because of their very low

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stripping ratio, suddenly their
cost is half of the, you know,

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the next door neighbour, not not
next door, but global

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competitor.
So I think the same thing is

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happening in the pedo light.
In some areas you just might

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have good strip ratios, better
strip ratios than some others.

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And that contributes a lot to
lower costs.

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So, so for those operations that
have the lower costs because of

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the the strip ratios, I'm not
sure how how much you dug into

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the the future of these
operations, but that can

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obviously change quite a bit in
quite a short amount of time

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00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:43,880
depending on the the sort of
geology of the ore body.

225
00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,080
What what did you find to kind
of find on, on that front?

226
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,440
Do you anticipate those ones
remaining low cost for a number

227
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,840
of years ahead or was that
really a a short term

228
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,480
opportunity?
Well, OK, here this is something

229
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,000
that I don't think there's
enough public information to go

230
00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,920
to be absolutely sure.
But I think some part of the

231
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,960
lipid supply will remain within
global supply for the

232
00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,520
foreseeable future.
And of course we have the upper

233
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,760
part of it that probably will
not even come online anytime

234
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,800
soon.
You know, we have, we have

235
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,280
brokers out there saying Chinese
Lapidolite is going to go to

236
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,000
300,000 tonnes per year.
But hey, are the companies

237
00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,680
willing to make a few $1000
losses per tonne?

238
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,320
Well, I think we've got an
answer from CATL.

239
00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:33,800
Yeah.
So do, do, do you then

240
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:38,560
anticipate more sort of
adjustments as CATL kind of put

241
00:13:38,560 --> 00:13:39,960
it?
Is that sort of baked in for the

242
00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:46,440
the back half of 24 and into 25
on, on your kind of numbers half

243
00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,880
half.
So my numbers I expect are

244
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,600
probably a little bit still
higher than what the market

245
00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,360
would eventually settle at.
How I do this analysis is if the

246
00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,400
company says, oh, we're going to
cut production or we're going to

247
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:04,600
delay this new mine then and
move these numbers around.

248
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:09,200
But if they do not make any such
pronouncements, I just put it in

249
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,480
the supply just to be a bit more
conservative and or on the

250
00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:16,280
upside on on the on the higher
end and potentially lead to an

251
00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:19,760
oversupply analysis in my supply
demand mesh up.

252
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,520
Why?
Why Jay, with the with this when

253
00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,520
you're doing this supply model
to obviously then feed into the

254
00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:33,120
demand, how sensitive is it for
the time it takes from blowing

255
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:36,720
up the rock, shipping it to it,
getting it into a battery?

256
00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,920
Is that like a a quantifiable
time or is that a thing that can

257
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,560
really cause a lot of variance
in the model?

258
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,240
Yeah.
So this is not something that we

259
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:53,720
can actually do at on the
reactive basis because well we

260
00:14:53,720 --> 00:14:57,560
are tracking 100 over mines and
you know even if you update

261
00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:04,040
these ones, if you know what,
what what I'm saying is that we

262
00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:06,200
do these forecasts on an annual
basis.

263
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:09,760
We forecast their productions
year by year, right.

264
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:14,280
So it is difficult to say that
they will produce in this part

265
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,760
of the year and then it actually
reaches the battery product in

266
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,560
that part of next year.
So we don't do that.

267
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,960
But what I do is if a mine is
coming online in the middle of

268
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:27,000
the year or you know in the
fourth quarter, we do of course

269
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,480
estimate a a bit of a ramp up
period plus the time that the

270
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:33,880
actual quarter that they start.
And that's how that's how we do

271
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,280
it.
We'll bring up your, your supply

272
00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,680
forecast on, on screen now.
And I'm just looking at, so

273
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,720
basically between February and
September, when you, you know,

274
00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,960
get these numbers, those were
like 6-7 months apart.

275
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:50,240
You, you, you basically show
that with the announcement of,

276
00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,760
of some supply curtailment and
some delays and developments

277
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:59,680
that there's like on your
numbers 21% less supply in 2026

278
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:01,960
than than you had sort of in
your model 6 months ago.

279
00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:05,320
Is that a fair characterization?
23, Yeah.

280
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:10,760
So this one, let me first say
that the numbers here are on a

281
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,520
pure mine level.
So this does not, this basically

282
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,160
captures what comes out of each
mine at the global level, but it

283
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,720
does not capture the losses that
we experience going into

284
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,120
refinery.
So rock, we are going to lose 10

285
00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,880
plus percent.
If it's like petrolite sources,

286
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:33,080
we might lose as much as 2030%
of the mine gate production LCE

287
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,440
during the refinery process.
We're going to lose that much

288
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,200
before we get to a battery
product, right.

289
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:42,840
So this, these numbers, supply
numbers you see are already too

290
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:50,880
high from that perspective.
And 2nd, it does not risk these

291
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,760
mines.
In other words, if somebody, if

292
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,040
one of these companies is saying
this mine is going to come

293
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:01,000
online in 2026, we take the
company's word for it.

294
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,520
We put the first production, you
know, with a bit of a ramp up

295
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,359
and and time discounting for
that year.

296
00:17:08,079 --> 00:17:11,760
But otherwise we assume that the
companies are on time, on

297
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,280
budget, you know and things come
online as planned.

298
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:20,560
So the only way these numbers go
up if there is excess, if there

299
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:25,440
are new mines that come online
that we are not aware of or, but

300
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,760
generally they go down because
of delays, because of you know

301
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,240
every other reason that you
know, to push supply back.

302
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:37,520
So what we have seen here is
that in factory we were we were

303
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:44,080
seeing mine gate supply of 2.1
million tonnes next year and 2.8

304
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:45,760
million tonnes the following
year.

305
00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:50,240
But as of this month, we are
looking at only 1.8 million

306
00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,360
tonnes and 2.3 million tonnes
for the next three years.

307
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:58,400
So these are pretty huge supply
cutbacks, 17 and 21% down.

308
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,320
Most of the regions are cutting
back except Africa, which is the

309
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:08,240
brown bit of the bars on top.
You can see that Australia next

310
00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:16,360
year down probably 17%, South
America down 22, China down 15%.

311
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,640
So these are pretty big supply
cuts and delays.

312
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,400
And the implications of this,
are you sort of suggesting that

313
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:30,520
the market's going to enter a,
a, a deficit much faster than

314
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,600
the street is sort of currently
anticipating?

315
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,200
Yeah.
So what the what the Street is

316
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:41,120
anticipating is supply growth to
be still pretty strong and

317
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,640
slowing demand.
And really I think the slowing

318
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:48,080
demand side is where most of
this supply imbalance will be

319
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,240
matched up later when we go on
to talk about demand.

320
00:18:51,360 --> 00:18:54,120
Yeah, you will see exactly where
all these sources are that take

321
00:18:54,120 --> 00:18:58,480
future demand way higher than
Albemarle or anybody in the

322
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,000
street are saying so.
So one of the other components

323
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:06,240
you you speak about YJ in, in
regards to supply is some of

324
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:10,440
these analysts just putting
blanket assumptions on

325
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,400
recoveries and all these sorts
of things.

326
00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,600
And that leads to, you know,
even if it's a a kind of small

327
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,480
percentage, if you magnify it
over the the whole market, it

328
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,160
leads to a pretty big outcome.
Can you speak a bit more to that

329
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,560
please?
Yeah.

330
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:29,160
So if you think about it, well,
one prominent broker has liquid

331
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,120
right supply at 300,000 tonnes,
right.

332
00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:33,080
That's a nice round Number.
We can use that.

333
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:36,440
So if 300,000 tonnes is the
supply, I don't know whether

334
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,840
they count it at Mindgate or
they count it at refinery level,

335
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,360
but probably it is mine gate
because most of the analysts do

336
00:19:43,360 --> 00:19:46,640
the same thing that we do take
take the number of mines, take

337
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,840
their capacity, take what they
think is going to be produced

338
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,720
and then feed it into the supply
model.

339
00:19:52,120 --> 00:19:54,920
But I don't know if they
actually consider the fact that

340
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:59,800
if it's like pedo light and you
know, the the concentrate is can

341
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,760
be as low as 2 1/2 percent or
three three 3 1/2%.

342
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,720
And then that low rate
concentrate gets fed into the

343
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,840
into the mills, in the into the
refining and we.

344
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,920
It whereas what you mean we lose
maybe 1015% at that point or

345
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,840
lipidolite we lose as much as 20
+ 30%.

346
00:20:18,120 --> 00:20:22,080
So on 300K if you lose, OK,
let's use the upper end.

347
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,160
If you lose 30% of 300 K you are
down 100K.

348
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,960
That's exactly what the what the
oversupply is this year, right?

349
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:36,720
So what so recent stuff out of
the more ISX listed side of

350
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,560
things like what, what influence
did like the likes of Mount

351
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,560
Catlin going on to care and
maintenance next year, Latin

352
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,560
resources probably getting
pushed out a couple of years.

353
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,240
We're hearing potentially there
might be some further catalments

354
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:52,880
in WA, but we haven't seen it
yet.

355
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,320
How much of an influence does
that have on the globe?

356
00:20:57,360 --> 00:21:04,880
Your global model not.
Yet like I said, if they

357
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,880
announced curtailments and and
shutdowns then I will put it

358
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,560
into the model.
But on then we have.

359
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:18,000
But I think the remainder are
pretty alright except one or two

360
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,480
mines that well, I shall name
any names here, but producing a

361
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,480
lower than expected grade of SC
that.

362
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:26,800
One.
We know which one that is.

363
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,080
Yeah.
So that one I think pretty high

364
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,000
chance of being at least
curtailed or they might as well

365
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,120
just shut it on this point well.
That's interesting right?

366
00:21:36,120 --> 00:21:39,920
Because the the you know, the
party currently taking that low

367
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:44,800
grade spot is is Ganfeng and
next month Ganfeng can just

368
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,800
start taking good spot from
Gulamena as I understand.

369
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,120
So why the hell would you keep
taking shit spot from Mount

370
00:21:52,120 --> 00:21:54,880
Marion?
Oh, OK.

371
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,000
So we are naming these out, all
right?

372
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,760
Yeah, exactly.
So which is why I think that

373
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:07,240
probably should shut, shut down.
And having said that, Gulamina

374
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,600
is actually one of the few mines
that we brought supply forward

375
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,120
this year, this month, yeah,
just a couple of months ago, you

376
00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:20,000
know, seeing what was happening
with unfortunately, what was it

377
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,320
called then, Leo?
Yeah, couple of months of

378
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,960
suspension and never been able
to move the project forward on

379
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,720
their own.
Yeah.

380
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,920
And everything that was going
on, I thought that it was going

381
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:36,160
to be years delayed.
So I pushed it back, I think 2

382
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,680
years.
And this month I actually had to

383
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,960
bring that forecast back up.
So what?

384
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:47,160
How does the actual obligation
work with Ganfen for Mount

385
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,200
Marion?
They obligated to take that or

386
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,280
is it?
Minres have the control over

387
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,160
whether it goes remains in
operation or not?

388
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,640
No, I'm not aware of any firm
offtake there.

389
00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:04,080
I, I didn't study it, who's
exactly off taking from Mount

390
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,120
Marion And we don't have a view
into the commercial current

391
00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:08,880
unfortunately.
I can bet that you won't find it

392
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,320
by going through men's
disclosures.

393
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:20,560
We'll get it, get it through
YJ's disclosure obligation, I

394
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,840
think of speaking obligation,
the obligation to use DSI as a

395
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,160
ground support supplier.
That is nearly the definition of

396
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,640
obligation to pertinent to the
mining industry possible

397
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,840
possibly Trav, as you read in
the paper, coming as part of the

398
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,920
Department of Mines.
Yeah, enforcing like, yeah, we

399
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,120
hear a lot about, you know, red
tape and all that sort of stuff,

400
00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:43,360
and things are getting worse.
But in in this case, you know,

401
00:23:43,360 --> 00:23:46,680
this bit of extra red tape
making companies require DSI,

402
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,000
you know, mesh and bolts, I
think that's actually a a good

403
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:50,400
thing.
For you.

404
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,000
I like that red tape.
Yeah, I like that red tape.

405
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:57,360
Yeah, red tape fits with the DSI
logo, the red that's like, yeah,

406
00:23:57,360 --> 00:24:00,640
I'm, I'm all for it.
And I think it's obviously look

407
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,320
come off the back of our just
constantly telling everyone,

408
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,120
yeah, bloody good and reliable.
DSIR is a ground support

409
00:24:09,120 --> 00:24:11,680
supplier and I think it's a
great thing for the industry

410
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,520
going forward.
Is it, you know, just an

411
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,320
obligation?
Because mate, it is just, it's

412
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,640
reliable, it comes faster.
You're going to get it, you

413
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,480
know, more efficient.
It's going to do.

414
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,280
Better it's going to be in the
ground, don't you, Trav?

415
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,200
It's going to, you know, it's
going to hold the ground up like

416
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:23,960
you.
Can count on it.

417
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,200
Everything.
Everything.

418
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,600
It's not going to hold the
ground up if it's not on site,

419
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,720
and DSI pride themselves in
getting that bloody ground

420
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,200
support to you.
Oh fucking.

421
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,120
God, I've I've never seen mining
services provided with a better

422
00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:38,000
distribution network than them.
They will get too.

423
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,480
Fast.
Oh, it's like a big bloody

424
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,480
global spider.
It's bloody brilliant.

425
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,480
Go DSI.
Why don't we jump, jump to the

426
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:48,920
demand side, 'cause this is,
this is really interesting,

427
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,120
right?
This has been a, a point of real

428
00:24:52,120 --> 00:24:54,000
contention.
And kind of like you, you spoke

429
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:58,000
to the, the beginning of the
call is that that's, that real

430
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,600
sort of jumping from a bull
market mindset to the, the sort

431
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,800
of bear market mindset And it
just sweeps across the whole

432
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,080
market.
So a couple years ago,

433
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,440
everyone's long E VS there,
they're going to be all we're

434
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:11,600
going to see on the roads in in
10 years time.

435
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,120
And now people are just saying
they're not, they're not kind of

436
00:25:14,120 --> 00:25:17,120
hitting that.
But your stance and what you're

437
00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:20,720
sort of betting on in the fund
is, you know, clearly bullish EV

438
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,480
penetration, bullish lithium and
all these sorts of things.

439
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:28,680
So can you kind of speak to the
the, the features of EV demand

440
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,760
that you think the market is
underweight, whether that's sort

441
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,280
of be stationary storage and and
all these other kind of aspects?

442
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:36,960
Sure.
All right.

443
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,720
So instead of giving you the
presentation as I gave David at

444
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,520
the event, I will take it a
little bit backwards.

445
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:49,840
Let's start off at the back of
the demand area, right?

446
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:52,960
Album Miles Forecast.
OK, let's start, let's start

447
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,760
maybe at that slide with album
Miles forecast.

448
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:59,360
That is slide 18.
And so album Miles start by

449
00:25:59,360 --> 00:26:03,120
saying that, oh, we think that
2030 demand is going to be lower

450
00:26:03,120 --> 00:26:05,360
than what they originally
thought, right?

451
00:26:05,360 --> 00:26:08,920
I think they shifted it down
from 3.7 or 8 to 3.3.

452
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,920
And of course a huge chunk of
that is E VS with a little bit

453
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,720
below that in grade, with a
little little bit below that in

454
00:26:17,360 --> 00:26:20,320
mobility.
I wonder how what else I think

455
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:24,800
that should be buses and trucks
that we say yeah, but so it

456
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:30,080
takes up to 3.3.
But we think and we are not even

457
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,560
too aggressive on it.
We think that EV penetration

458
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:40,080
rates go up from 20% this year
to 2030, forty 4%.

459
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,440
So 44% penetration is not out of
line compared to what the street

460
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,040
and all the all the other
companies are saying.

461
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:50,920
And based on 44% penetration and
that includes Beths and plug in

462
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:56,960
hybrids, we estimate 2.2 million
tonnes of LCE demand from EV

463
00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:01,280
passenger cars.
So if you do the numbers, that's

464
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:06,560
exactly what I was saying.
So EVs, that huge blue bar on

465
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,000
top of Albemarle's demand chart
is probably 2 1/2, you know,

466
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,720
2.32 point, 6,000,000 tonnes
there.

467
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,560
So we are not that far from
Albemarle.

468
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:23,960
Where we really differ are the
heavy buses, the trucks and the

469
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:26,640
great demand.
That's best, right?

470
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:27,840
We're calling it best here,
right?

471
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,960
So this.
Is a really non consensus

472
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,120
perspective that you know you
have It's, it's, yeah, you're,

473
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,600
you're you're you're far more
bullish on the, on the growth

474
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,120
case of those applications than
than everyone else who just

475
00:27:40,120 --> 00:27:43,880
looks at EVs pretty much.
Yeah, I mean, it makes no sense

476
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,120
for for the whole market to be
just only talking EVs when the

477
00:27:47,120 --> 00:27:49,560
new products are already coming
up into the market.

478
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:52,880
So E buses, you know, all,
nearly all of China's tier one

479
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,440
city buses are electric and
they're exporting it in a huge

480
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,240
way around the world.
I'm getting E buses here in

481
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,560
Singapore.
We, we have of course, mostly

482
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,640
diesel buses, but more and more
I'm enjoying, you know, the

483
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:11,360
quiet strong air condition rise
in these EV buses and EV trucks.

484
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,960
I was very, very surprised.
Two months ago we saw, I saw a

485
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:20,120
garbage truck, you know, and it
was the BYD electric truck.

486
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,240
How good's that they're?
They're so noisy garbage trucks.

487
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,440
I'd love it like less noisy
garbage trucks.

488
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,600
They still stink.
If the.

489
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:30,720
Liquid can make it smell.
Different as well.

490
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,320
Yeah.
But I totally did not expect to

491
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,600
see a BYD garbage truck here in
Singapore, you know, and that

492
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:42,200
speaks to how fast this segment
is growing and how quietly

493
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,160
nobody is focused on it.
And if you look at the numbers,

494
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:52,560
how big that demand could be, an
EV bus has a battery of 300

495
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,240
kilowatt hours, right?
That takes it to about 5-6 times

496
00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,560
a car, a typical car, an EV
truck has a battery of 600 to

497
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,440
800 kilowatt hours.
That's literally 10 times the

498
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:07,880
size of a car.
So buses we think, you know,

499
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:13,720
they probably go up 21% of new
buses globally being electric by

500
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,600
the end of the decade.
That's I don't that I don't

501
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:20,200
think is aggressive trucks.
Our forecast for it is about

502
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,480
half a million units by the end
of the decade per year.

503
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,440
I think this year we are on
track for about 100,000 units EV

504
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:28,880
trucks.
So I think that's not too

505
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,600
aggressive as well.
It takes the penetration to 13%.

506
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,720
So how, where, where are those
just on the, on the trucks

507
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:41,280
quickly is that dominated that
100,000 by the, the US by China?

508
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:44,360
Where are we really seeing those
sales happen right now?

509
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,160
Oh, it's definitely global.
I mean, even even in China,

510
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:52,320
we're seeing some new E VS
trucks coming up from BYD in, in

511
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,320
the US, we are seeing the Tesla
semi coming up.

512
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:58,920
Pepsi is doing huge trials with
it right now.

513
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:03,840
So once that's validated, I
expect, you know, adoption to be

514
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,440
really quick now.
But first of all, why?

515
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,640
Right.
We all know EVs, the operating

516
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,000
cost is so low, the maintenance
cost is so low.

517
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:16,320
Most high use fleets are the 1st
to transition to EV, especially

518
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,720
if you're a big company that can
afford infrastructure right

519
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,680
upfront.
Not sure if you guys are aware,

520
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:29,480
but more than 85% of of the taxi
fleet in China have swapped to

521
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,160
EVs in, in new sales at least.
Yeah.

522
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,280
So definitely these high use
segments will be the first to

523
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,680
switch.
So just E trucks, if we just

524
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,040
focus on the E trucks segment
alone, half a million units by

525
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,200
the end of this decade, half a
million units of E trucks at 10

526
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,400
times the battery size of a car
is literally five.

527
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,560
Yeah, sorry.
Is that is, that is the lithium

528
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:59,800
intensity of those units about
10 times compared to an EV due

529
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,480
to the battery size.
Exactly.

530
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,520
So a 608 hundred kWh battery
consumes 10 times the lithium of

531
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,560
a 70 kWh car.
Yeah, yeah.

532
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,000
But what what's the what battery
chemistry are they using for the

533
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:17,000
trucks and buses?
It's probably LFP.

534
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,200
LFP, yeah.
Yeah, probably.

535
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:23,880
I don't see well maybe the Tesla
said I might run on an NMCI need

536
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:28,600
to check that out.
But it does not require, you

537
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,200
know, high the insane
acceleration for garbage trucks

538
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,520
or high top speeds, right?
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

539
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:41,280
So half a million units of
trucks equals 5 million cars,

540
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:43,520
right?
Which analysts are saying that

541
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,120
and?
What?

542
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,520
And so how much are you putting
weight towards the global demand

543
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,120
for a VS holistically?
How much?

544
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,200
What percent is this bus and
trucks looking to make up?

545
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:02,800
OK, Bus and trucks, I think if I
recall my numbers are about 9%

546
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:07,960
of the demand by 20-30 and
that's on a on a on a four, 4.3

547
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:12,320
million tonne demand, OK.
So 1010%, nine to 10% of the

548
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,160
total lithium or nine to 10% of
the total units.

549
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,400
Nine percent, 10% of the total
lithium demand.

550
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:23,160
Yeah, Yeah.
And then how about the battery

551
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:27,280
stationary storage?
Wow, that's an, that's an,

552
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,600
that's a very, very interesting
topic, right.

553
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,480
So battery storage, now what we
are seeing around the worldwide

554
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,720
battery storage is going to go
exponential in a few years is

555
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,640
because of negative electricity
prices around the world that we

556
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:45,160
are seeing so much.
Solar has been installed, 444

557
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:50,680
gigawatts last year, almost 600
gigawatts this year and probably

558
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,400
7-8 hundred over the over the
rest of the decade, right per

559
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,880
year.
That has driven electricity

560
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,920
wholesale prices down to the
negative levels in so many

561
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:04,520
places, California, Texas,
European countries, Germany,

562
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,840
France, Norway, Sweden, Finland,
all the Scandinavians.

563
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,320
That really means you cannot
bring a new solar project into

564
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:18,600
the grid without storage.
Everybody's producing at peak in

565
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,280
the middle of the day.
If you don't have storage, your

566
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,920
product, literally your
electricity literally has to be

567
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:28,880
grounded, just wasted, right?
And that means that batteries

568
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:34,400
are an essential new part of the
solar solar farm system right

569
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:36,640
now.
Without it, there is no real

570
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,120
incentive for for you to put a
new solar plant into the system.

571
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:45,600
So how many hours of battery
storage do we need?

572
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:52,280
We need at least two to three
hours nationally to transfer the

573
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,200
power from the midday to the
peak period in the evenings,

574
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,600
right?
So if you do the math on 600

575
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:02,320
gigawatts of new installations,
we're not even talking stock

576
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,240
stock of production, we're just
talking new installations,

577
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,400
right?
600 gigawatts of new

578
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:14,040
installations times 3 hours. 1.8
terawatt hours of battery

579
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:19,159
storage will be needed.
What, how, how, how many

580
00:34:19,159 --> 00:34:21,880
batteries were produced are
being produced this year?

581
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,639
About 1.6 kilowatt hours or
probably less.

582
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:31,679
So we need more lithium than the
world can produce today to put

583
00:34:31,679 --> 00:34:34,080
in three hours of storage at the
end of the decade?

584
00:34:34,679 --> 00:34:38,719
Oh no, probably even this year
on an on a 600 GW installation.

585
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,679
How how much are being
attributed to household

586
00:34:42,679 --> 00:34:47,159
batteries and how much are being
attributed to, I guess bulk

587
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:54,159
storage outside of houses?
All this is purely great outside

588
00:34:54,159 --> 00:34:56,480
of houses.
The inside the houses one we are

589
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:59,880
what we call behind the metre
right accounts for about 30 plus

590
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:04,320
GW hours last year and probably
in the 30s forties this year.

591
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,440
But we are not even adding that.
That's almost a rounding error

592
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,800
compared to the 1.8 terawatt
hours that we could be talking

593
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,800
about if we install 3 hours.
But this year, well, last year,

594
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,160
great storage were about 97
gigawatts around the world.

595
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,960
GW hours around the world this
year is going to be higher than

596
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,240
that.
But overall, the picture just

597
00:35:26,240 --> 00:35:30,720
means that we are installing 20
minutes of storage this year out

598
00:35:30,720 --> 00:35:33,400
of 600 gigawatts of new solar
installations.

599
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:38,680
We are far from being at the
level of what is truly needed.

600
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:40,920
Yeah.
So because do you think there's

601
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,960
going to be much of an uptake of
the, I know there was the the

602
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,080
rage, you know years ago
everyone to get solar on their

603
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,840
roof, which and there was the
incentives to do so.

604
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,560
Do you think we're going to say
the same for the battery storage

605
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,360
as well to sort of really.
So we're not putting as much

606
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,280
back into the grid and they
we're getting powered at night.

607
00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:03,680
Oh absolutely.
Look, both solar panels and

608
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,120
battery prices have absolutely
collapsed.

609
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,760
Solar is going through an
overcapacity over production

610
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:14,200
situation in China.
So they are desperate to get rid

611
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,760
of a product to sell it, you
know, move it out.

612
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,640
And that has led to people
installing solar panels

613
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:25,440
everywhere, fencing side of your
houses, the most inefficient

614
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,440
places to put solar.
But because it is so cheap,

615
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,280
they're putting it there.
That's what drives demand,

616
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,000
right?
When things are so cheap, the

617
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,320
the volume demand just goes up
like crazy.

618
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:38,120
We are seeing the same thing
happen for batteries in the

619
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:40,880
behind the metre set base as
well.

620
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,680
Battery prices are moving down
very quickly.

621
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,240
It's gotten to a place where
it's so attractive.

622
00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:50,440
I'm hearing stories of people
putting 1520 plus kilowatt hours

623
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:54,920
of storage at home, right?
And this lower price definitely

624
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:59,040
stimulates demand not just in
home, in the in the home

625
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,560
batteries, but also in grid that
will come in a huge wheel.

626
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:06,320
We are talking, we are talking
multiple GW hours of projects

627
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,160
each project right now.
That's that's being discussed

628
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,960
and and announced.
And of course with lower prices,

629
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,120
we are going to see a resurgence
in EV demand.

630
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,240
No analysts out there today
dares to project EVs.

631
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,880
The growth rate going from, you
know, 100% is always been down

632
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,640
to 20% this year.
Like nobody's projecting a

633
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:33,040
resurgence in the growth rate,
but when prices are low and EV

634
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:38,280
prices fall below ICE, right, it
has to be a tipping point where

635
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:43,000
the growth rate accelerates
again and then it just takes

636
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,320
over the entire new sales.
So that's what we're seeing.

637
00:37:45,720 --> 00:37:47,840
This is a this is a point you
kind of, yeah.

638
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:51,000
I mean, it's kind of clear when
you, you tweeted out the, you

639
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:55,160
know, the, the Saudi best kind
of project that got approved a

640
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:59,040
few months ago, 7.8 GW hours to
be completed in one year, which

641
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:03,640
is, you know, the equivalent of
92,000 cars worth of batteries.

642
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,160
It's those like large, large
best projects, which I imagine

643
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:12,520
really move the needle and they
like they stack up from, from

644
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,960
the, you know, the investment
case because you have such a,

645
00:38:15,720 --> 00:38:20,640
you know, dreadfully cyclical
nature in, in, in, in grid

646
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,960
thanks to thanks to solar
penetration in some ways.

647
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:30,200
I, I, I, I made a post today.
Sorry I I I did that post today.

648
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,680
Yeah, you.
Yeah, you tweeted July 7th.

649
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,080
Yeah, translation.
Post better than you, you guys

650
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,880
know me better.
Than I know myself.

651
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:46,800
How do you think about the, the
fragility to the thesis?

652
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,520
YJ So I mean to, to start with,
specifically the the battery

653
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,240
storage component.
Is it the the ability for the

654
00:38:54,240 --> 00:38:58,240
world to find the lithium?
Is it the, you know, the the

655
00:38:58,240 --> 00:39:02,880
datedness of the, the grid in
the Western world for it to kind

656
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,960
of be feasible?
Where do you kind of see the

657
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:09,280
biggest points of contention
when you study and put the case

658
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,400
forward?
Yeah, So the others, the other

659
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:16,480
risk that we are seeing right
now is, yes, grid capacity as

660
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,600
well.
And there have been some reports

661
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:24,320
that, yeah, there's so much new
additions in solar in best that

662
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,560
the grid cannot keep up.
So there needs to be new, there

663
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,040
needs to be new investments.
I'm hearing potentially from

664
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,480
from some, we speak to solar
manufacturers in China as well,

665
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,520
right.
So one of them is saying that

666
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:43,600
next year the demand the solar
installation in China will be

667
00:39:43,600 --> 00:39:47,760
high, will probably be 600 plus,
will lead to about a global

668
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,840
demand of 600 plus gigawatts as
well.

669
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,320
But it will probably slow the
growth rate will probably slow a

670
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:57,560
little bit because the grid
needs a bit of time to to be

671
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:03,400
built up and you know, invested
in as well from the mine side.

672
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,880
I don't there could be a risk
that companies cut back too

673
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:12,600
aggressively.
In this period of low prices, I

674
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,800
mean it's all cyclical.
The bullwhip supply chain effect

675
00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:19,440
applies to lithium as well.
So we saw this in 2020,

676
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:23,000
companies delayed their, their
mine cleansed, they, they all

677
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,040
shut down.
And then we were very, very

678
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,600
rapidly went into an undersupply
situation in the next two years

679
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:30,640
and that sent lithium prices to
80,000.

680
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:35,520
I, I'm afraid that this could
happen again this cycle.

681
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:39,840
Maybe the lapidolacadol or
African supply could be a quick

682
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,000
could come in relatively quickly
and tamp it off at maybe the

683
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,240
3040 thousand range, but it will
not be immediate.

684
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,680
What what about the, the
disruptions from things like

685
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:52,760
tariffs and other sort of forms
of government protectionism?

686
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,920
This has been like a, a huge
talking point that we've had on

687
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:58,760
the show that's, you know,
whether that be kind of in the,

688
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,760
in the government in the US or
in Europe, they're they're

689
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:06,200
really ratcheting these up to
quite substantial levels.

690
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,680
Does that sort of hinder the the
thesis in any material way?

691
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:14,880
I don't think so.
We are not being too aggressive

692
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:20,360
on the EV penetration rates as
we are right now, right, 44% by

693
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:24,040
the end of 2030 for passenger
cars government.

694
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,920
These tariffs that we are
talking about more or less just

695
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:33,160
potentially equalise the prices
of ICE cars and battery cars in

696
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:36,560
those markets where the tariffs
are going in the US tariffs are

697
00:41:36,560 --> 00:41:39,960
still you know, up in the air.
I don't think 100% thing is a is

698
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:41,760
a political talking point right
now.

699
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,080
The EU side is a little bit more
real.

700
00:41:45,240 --> 00:41:49,480
They have put in I think 10 to
30 plus percent tariffs.

701
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:56,520
So but that again more or less
just equalises market prices and

702
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,040
that means that these cars still
go in.

703
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:03,800
And Even so I think we've seen
was it Norway that pushed back

704
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:07,760
against these tariffs?
They're part of the EU, but

705
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:11,120
they're saying, look, why do I
want to be stupid and give my

706
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,400
people higher prices for
essentially no benefit to

707
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,200
myself?
I have no car makers.

708
00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:21,080
I have no need to have tariffs.
Why do I want to subsidise

709
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:24,760
Germany, Right.
So they are already pushing back

710
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,720
and saying, yeah, you guys can
declare all the tariffs you

711
00:42:26,720 --> 00:42:28,680
want, but we won't implement
them.

712
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:33,200
So I don't think this tariff
thing will be huge.

713
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:39,480
And what we are seeing also in
China is that they are going out

714
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,720
into all the other big markets
in the world.

715
00:42:42,720 --> 00:42:45,640
Individually they might be
small, but collectively Africa

716
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,280
is a big market.
Collectively the Middle East is

717
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:52,800
a big market.
And they they don't care about

718
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,400
Western tariffs.
They want cheap Chinese, cheap

719
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:03,400
and good Chinese products.
So what I don't think tariffs

720
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:08,400
will be a big thing in the
impediment of Chinese TV's going

721
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:12,360
out and and to this thesis.
And I think we just saw BYDS

722
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,560
second car carrier get completed
yesterday, right.

723
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:22,520
So, So what we are seeing is for
the first time in history car

724
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:27,640
manufacturer integrates so
perfectly across its verticals,

725
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,360
right.
BYDS got its own battery plants.

726
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:35,040
I think eventually they'll even
have probably a a interest in

727
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,800
some mines.
They have their own car

728
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,640
manufacturing, they have their
own export, they have their own

729
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,600
export vessels.
No car maker in the world has,

730
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:50,600
you know, a 7000 car capacity
shipping vessel and they are

731
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:55,280
building, I think was it 7 or 11
or 11 of them to essentially

732
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:59,640
make sure that no car carrier
can can decline shipping that

733
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:04,600
product overseas.
So you obviously run, run this

734
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:06,840
clean energy fund.
We've we've spoken heaps about

735
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,400
lithium and a bit about the, the
EV sort of makers.

736
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,960
Are they the real kind of
pockets within the the Blauda

737
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:17,640
clean energy, if you like kind
of market that you play through

738
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,160
the fund or the other sort of
niches, whether that be sort of

739
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,200
battery makers that that you
think sort of represent

740
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,280
opportunities out there that you
you're kind of excited by?

741
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:31,880
Yeah.
So we talk about, we, we look at

742
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,880
many, many metals As for the,
let's focus on the green metal

743
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:39,200
fund, right, Just the metals.
Of course, we are super bullish

744
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:43,080
on lithium, but at the same time
we are very, very heavily

745
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:47,040
invested in silver, you know,
and we look a little bit into

746
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,840
copper, nickel, graphite,
cobalt, all the other metals.

747
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:53,240
But right now our our other main
area of focus is silver.

748
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:59,040
Why?
Well, we are back to the solar

749
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:00,600
story again.
Oh, I could have picked that

750
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:05,080
one.
Yeah, so.

751
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:09,000
I mean, we are talking about
installations around the world,

752
00:45:09,000 --> 00:45:13,760
600 gigawatts this year.
Not many people know that how

753
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:17,520
much silver is being produced,
sorry, being consumed by the

754
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:22,200
solar industry so early in 2000,
it was next to nothing, right?

755
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:26,320
But you know a big black solar
channel or the bright lines

756
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,160
running across them, right?
Those are silver.

757
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:32,640
Every single panel uses a little
bit of silver.

758
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:38,240
But when you multiply a pair,
that little bit of silver by 600

759
00:45:38,240 --> 00:45:43,200
GW worth of production and
installations every year, that

760
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:44,680
adds up to a really large
number.

761
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:51,200
So I think you saw in my slides
this picture of this solar plant

762
00:45:51,240 --> 00:45:59,320
in Abu Dhabi.
That one is a 1.3 GW plant and

763
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:03,800
that that itself consumes
consumed 30 tonnes of silver.

764
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:09,920
So this is yeah.
And right now, currently world

765
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,160
installations are 450 times of
this.

766
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:18,680
It is literally unimaginable.
We cannot imagine 450 times of

767
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:20,400
this, right?
Wonder how many?

768
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:22,520
Wonder how many?
Bloody tonnes of silver that

769
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,080
Silverstone have put in their
solar panel arise.

770
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:27,760
Do you see?
Especially this one we can see

771
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:31,280
on the on the pitchery.
That's a pretty damn spanking.

772
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:35,480
Sexy operation they got gone.
I wonder if they used the name

773
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,920
Silverstone came out because
they they were so futurist.

774
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,960
They knew that this this demand
for silver, you know, for the

775
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:43,600
for the all of these like solar
installations would be such a

776
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,320
big deal.
I know.

777
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,640
And look and with those play
like, you know those they all

778
00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:52,120
look good on from air, but like
they do get dust accumulation

779
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:55,960
and they do need to be washed
regularly.

780
00:46:55,960 --> 00:46:59,120
They do.
Why not use the Silverstone

781
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:04,680
turnkey water offering as well
to supply the water to wash your

782
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,640
solar panels installed by
Silverstone as well.

783
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,920
Holy snap and duck shit.
And like when we're talking

784
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:15,880
water trav, like even just the
first steps, the surveying of

785
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,680
the area for where the water
piping's going to go by the

786
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,480
Silverstone team, the bloody
earth moving and the clearing

787
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:27,480
and then all the pipe digging,
installation, joining,

788
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:33,000
connecting, just mate, absolute
turnkey mine management, turnkey

789
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:36,200
water management, turnkey energy
management, like just an

790
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:42,040
absolute quadruply vertically
integrated mining services

791
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:43,520
provider.
Silverstone is.

792
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,560
I think you've put it on a
silver platter for the issue.

793
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:48,240
Haven't.
We what right.

794
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,000
And you know, you know what they
they eat Silverside for dinner

795
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,320
every night.
Those guys just to keep that

796
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:57,520
Silverstone, that silver gown
and like, but it's quite I'd

797
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:00,440
probably call them in terms when
you think about the, all the

798
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:03,520
water work, the energy work, the
solar work, I'd nearly call them

799
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:05,880
Goldstone because I don't think
silver.

800
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,720
They're far from a silver medal.
So mate.

801
00:48:08,720 --> 00:48:11,640
Love your work Silverstein.
Don't forget about every single

802
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:15,800
offering these absolute legends
have, especially the survey in

803
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:17,880
the water.
Go Silverstein.

804
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:19,600
Go Silverstein.
Gold medal.

805
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:24,440
So.
What happens is that the solar

806
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:28,760
silver demand, this is the next
slide 28 went from nearly zero

807
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:36,960
in 2000 to about 1620% of global
silver production last year.

808
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:45,160
And what happens next, The solar
capacity and production in China

809
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:49,240
is growing from 604 hundred plus
to 800 in the next few years.

810
00:48:49,240 --> 00:48:53,680
It's doubling the next
generation of solar panels right

811
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,800
now.
They've shifted from they've

812
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,800
shifted from perk.
The next generation is top con

813
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:01,960
and the next generation is
hetero junction, right?

814
00:49:02,240 --> 00:49:06,280
These next generations use even
more silver per panel.

815
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,040
So what do we have?
We have a a multiplication

816
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,560
doubling of the volume.
We have an increase in the

817
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:20,680
silver intensity use per panel.
And we are going to go, go from

818
00:49:21,240 --> 00:49:29,960
let's say 16% of solar, solar
use of silver towards 30 + 40%

819
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:32,520
by the end of this decade, an
increase in the silver

820
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:33,320
intensity.
Per panel.

821
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:34,800
That's, that's interesting,
right?

822
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:38,280
Because like I was under the
impression that the trend for,

823
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:40,800
for so long with the, you know,
the metal intensity in their

824
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,320
solar panels is they, they, they
get, you know, less and less

825
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:46,280
intensity because they become
more efficient.

826
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,200
Or at least that's the, the
story that's told by the tin

827
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,560
barons in relation to the tin
intensity of these solar panels.

828
00:49:50,840 --> 00:49:54,200
But so you're saying that that
trend's kind of like kind of

829
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:58,040
reverse for silver and they'll
become So what you're talking?

830
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,360
About is called drifting in the
industry.

831
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:04,720
So as all these manufacturers
want to cut their costs, to

832
00:50:04,720 --> 00:50:08,040
bring down the cost and to make
their production more efficient,

833
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:11,400
they try to use less and less of
the of silver per panel.

834
00:50:11,720 --> 00:50:15,440
But that is in relation to a
current existing technology,

835
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:17,760
right?
The current process, the current

836
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,280
technology, you can use less of
it every year.

837
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:23,720
It happens, yes.
About I think it's about maybe

838
00:50:24,240 --> 00:50:29,880
between 5 to 12% reductions in
the intensity used per year on

839
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:34,720
that particular technology.
But they are moving to the next

840
00:50:34,720 --> 00:50:39,520
technology to try to squeeze
more solar yield out of the

841
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:41,800
panels.
So we've seen yields go from

842
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,720
this is this is the yield of
capturing the sunlight into

843
00:50:44,720 --> 00:50:47,920
electricity, right.
So we've seen the yields go from

844
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,720
the low 20s now towards the mid
20s.

845
00:50:50,720 --> 00:50:55,320
Some are even reporting peak
potential yields at in the in

846
00:50:55,320 --> 00:51:00,440
the 30s right in the at 30%.
So this requires the shift in

847
00:51:00,440 --> 00:51:04,480
the technology, a change in the
technology of the solar panel.

848
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,680
So the next one that they are
already moving onto in the big

849
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:10,120
way is called popcorn and the
next one is called petrol

850
00:51:10,120 --> 00:51:14,320
junction.
By trying to squeeze more yield,

851
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,040
you have to use a different
process, you have to use more

852
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:21,000
silver because to increase the
conductivity of the of the

853
00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:23,560
panel.
And that means that we are

854
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:28,560
starting again from higher base
of silver intensity before

855
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:31,800
eventually when when they make
these productions more

856
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,560
efficient, they try to drift it
down again.

857
00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:37,640
Gotcha, gotcha, gotcha.
So it's like a one off sugar

858
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:39,920
heat when you change the
technology, but the the general

859
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:41,080
trade.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

860
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:43,560
Gotcha.
And how do you kind?

861
00:51:43,560 --> 00:51:46,280
Of think about a a.
Decline in the the usage of

862
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:50,640
silver from all the other
applications as the the kind of

863
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:54,800
price rises in your thesis.
Is there sort of wiggle rumours

864
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:58,120
those people substitute or is it
just the fact that you know,

865
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:01,720
silver is best in class for its
conductivity and you can't

866
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:05,600
really substitute it for those
those sort of niche industrial

867
00:52:05,600 --> 00:52:08,000
kind of uses that it's used in?
Yeah.

868
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:12,600
So you are right in that point
in that it is very, very

869
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,080
difficult to substitute away
from silver, especially in the

870
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:19,040
applications where you need or
want very high conductivity.

871
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:25,160
And the other main issue with
it's, it's not an issue.

872
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:28,960
It's actually a great thing that
silver demand, a lot of it is

873
00:52:28,960 --> 00:52:31,280
jewellery, right?
And a lot of it is investment

874
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:36,360
purposes, hoping that in
bullion, in bars, in coins, in

875
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,880
silver ETFs.
So what happens is that these

876
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,320
demands are actually pro
cyclical.

877
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,320
When prices go up, demand goes
up because look at what's

878
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,120
happening with gold, right?
When the price of gold goes up,

879
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:53,680
Costco start selling it in in
supermarkets, people start

880
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:56,520
grabbing it up, you know, in the
anticipation that prices will go

881
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,760
up further.
So this is lithium stocks, mate,

882
00:53:00,200 --> 00:53:01,960
people on board once they start
running.

883
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,880
Yeah, exactly right.
So this this happens in the in

884
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:09,480
the financial markets.
So what I see for silver as a as

885
00:53:09,480 --> 00:53:14,000
a final potential kick to the
silver price is when these

886
00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:18,000
financial demands start coming
in today, you want to buy

887
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,480
silver.
You don't actually go out to buy

888
00:53:20,480 --> 00:53:22,640
silver.
You, you stand in front of your

889
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:24,560
computer, you press a few
buttons, you bought yourself a

890
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:28,080
silver ETF, then it is up to
that silver ETF to go buy the

891
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:29,560
physical bullion to back it up,
right.

892
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,960
And that makes it so easy for
demand to come into the market

893
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:39,360
now right now.
And silver ETF hold only about

894
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:43,600
10% of the AUM assets under
management of gold ETF around

895
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:45,560
the world.
So gold is going up.

896
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:48,000
Gold is doing great right now.
Everybody's piling their money

897
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,080
into gold.
What I think happens later in

898
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:54,480
the next part of this cycle is
that silver prices start moving

899
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,080
as well because of this
industrial demand because of

900
00:53:57,360 --> 00:54:01,440
from, from solar panels, right?
And lower interest rates.

901
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:04,600
Once prices start moving,
investors are going to start

902
00:54:04,600 --> 00:54:07,360
realising, oh, I don't have
enough silver.

903
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:11,800
Let's move a little bit of let's
move 10% of my gold AUM into

904
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:14,920
silver.
And that just doubled the silver

905
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:18,040
ETF.
Sorry, I was just.

906
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,320
Wasn't being rude being on the
phone I thought, I just wanted

907
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,840
to put a bit of context to that
30 tonne of silver that you

908
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:26,480
quoted for how much was still
incoming?

909
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:31,120
For that but so that.
That that's 1,000,000 ounces of

910
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,920
silver.
So that's about 1/4 of the

911
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:38,120
future production coming out of
Adriatic's Varesh mine when

912
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:41,400
they're at full production.
So that's how that to quantify

913
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:45,680
how much that is for one plant.
So that's obviously for that

914
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:49,560
purpose is which is obviously
not just what silver's used for

915
00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:51,040
in relation to gold and
everything.

916
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,840
So that's a good chunk of silver
that goes into these things.

917
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:56,400
Yeah, I know, right.
I mean we.

918
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:59,720
We literally cannot comprehend
how much these volumes these

919
00:54:59,720 --> 00:55:02,280
teenagers are until we actually
compare it to something else.

920
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:06,520
Now of course, granted that Abu
Dhabi solar plant emoji was a

921
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:08,320
little bit older, they used a
bit more silver.

922
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:11,920
They will use a bit less now.
I think probably instead of 30

923
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:16,240
times, it might be 25 times, but
it is still like you say, a huge

924
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:20,720
proportion of a single company's
output and that's just a plant.

925
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:22,440
It's really interesting, right?
Because.

926
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:27,960
Like there's so many companies
that market themselves as a, as

927
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:32,040
a battery metals company, but
like, you know, the, all of the

928
00:55:32,040 --> 00:55:34,640
battery metals companies we can
think of, none of them, none of

929
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:38,320
them have added silver to their
portfolio of metals to, to, to

930
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:40,880
market themselves as a, you
know, a, a, a battery metals

931
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:42,680
company.
Well, none that I can think of,

932
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,880
yeah.
Well, Silver Energy Transition

933
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:48,720
Company.
Wouldn't they?

934
00:55:48,720 --> 00:55:50,920
Well, I mean, battery metal is a
bit of a stupid.

935
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,800
Name, in my opinion anyway, like
energy transition, yeah.

936
00:55:55,240 --> 00:55:58,200
Yeah, but.
Silver is a very, very

937
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:03,760
specialised thing, right?
Lithium, lithium and iron ore,

938
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:05,960
other stuff you can, you can go
out there and mine it, you know,

939
00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:09,880
ship it to refiners.
But silver is, it's quite tough

940
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:16,360
actually the, the process of
mining it is just like gold and

941
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:18,640
there, there are a lot of
byproducts that come out of

942
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:22,600
silver mines or or rather I
should say silver itself is

943
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:25,200
mostly a byproduct that comes
out of other mines.

944
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:27,920
So there are only probably about
1/3 of the mines in the world

945
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,320
that are Pureplay silver.
The rest of it are are out of

946
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:33,360
mines that produce lexing or
copper gold.

947
00:56:33,720 --> 00:56:38,200
So the entry ticket to produce
to build a lexing mine or to

948
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:42,280
build a copper gold mine is
literally a billion dollars or

949
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:46,560
more, right?
So how many energy transition

950
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,720
companies are going to be able
to come up with a billion

951
00:56:49,720 --> 00:56:54,000
dollars in CapEx to produce, you
know, let's say, which they not

952
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:56,080
necessarily want to get to the
silver?

953
00:56:58,280 --> 00:56:59,760
Yeah, you've got to come up with
a story for the lead.

954
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:03,920
Or the gold, which is a bit more
complex, does the.

955
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:07,520
But the lead, there's a lot of
lead in solar panels too, isn't

956
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:08,920
there?
So is there a bit of a

957
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,600
relationship between the lead
and the silver for the solar

958
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:14,120
panels?
Oh, not that I'm aware.

959
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:16,480
Of actually, oh God, didn't
buddy TJ.

960
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:19,360
Say there was a heap of lead
went into solar panels as well.

961
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:21,440
I do remember that.
But yeah.

962
00:57:21,800 --> 00:57:25,880
Yeah, can't imagine why I'd say
that, because he's running the

963
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:32,000
lead more exactly.
There, there was the, the

964
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,920
example we had here in, in NSW,
Bowden's silver.

965
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:38,720
And they recently just had
their, their sort of project

966
00:57:38,720 --> 00:57:42,600
kind of canned by the locals
who, who said what sort of

967
00:57:42,600 --> 00:57:45,800
silver even used for anyway.
So there's a, and that, and

968
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:49,440
that's a lead silver mine.
That's, you know, the, the one

969
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:51,840
argument they sort of put
forward is that lead is used in

970
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:54,000
internal combustion engine
vehicles, you know, and the

971
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:57,200
battery's there.
And that's the sort of, you

972
00:57:57,200 --> 00:58:00,960
know, fading kind of industry.
So that was used as a, a point

973
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:03,840
of critique without looking at
the the other side of the mine

974
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:06,840
that's going to produce silver
for, for solar and all these

975
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:08,960
sorts of things.
So it's a bit, a bit short

976
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,400
sighted, but that's a whole
another sort of political type

977
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,200
issue.
Yeah.

978
00:58:13,200 --> 00:58:16,160
But I, I, I don't blame them.
Investors want you to produce

979
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:21,120
the metals that are are really
high demand and not just have

980
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:23,360
half a product in demand and the
other half not, right.

981
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,400
So, yeah, these are some of the
problems that that exist in the

982
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:32,560
silver market, which is why we
think silver supply cannot grow

983
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:34,800
easily.
It's not like lithium where, you

984
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:37,880
know, you suddenly have
lapidolites and other and clay

985
00:58:37,880 --> 00:58:41,480
and what have you coming out in
a very short amount of time.

986
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:44,640
Silver we don't think can grow
that quickly.

987
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:48,840
Well, do you have any?
Any insights on on some of the

988
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:51,280
miners or developers that you
know you find particularly

989
00:58:51,280 --> 00:58:55,520
interesting kind of at this at
this sort of juncture in the in

990
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:57,600
the in the energy transition
story?

991
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:02,400
Interesting in that sense, like
the, you know.

992
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:06,360
Maybe your, your, your the fund,
the green metals fund is, is

993
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:09,600
allocating to it or it's on the
you know, the the watch list

994
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:12,960
where you know subject to a
certain catalyst, you you might

995
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:15,680
allocate to it.
OK.

996
00:59:15,720 --> 00:59:22,000
I I'm definitely, let's see, you
can pump your portfolio.

997
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:23,960
In right?
I don't want to.

998
00:59:24,000 --> 00:59:26,720
Pump my we've given you a
bloody.

999
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:30,920
Great lot.
No, that's why.

1000
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:31,960
That's what.
That's what I don't.

1001
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:35,080
Want to come across as doing,
but let me let me just share a

1002
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:38,480
little bit about how we select
the companies that go into the

1003
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,280
portfolio right?
What makes them interesting to

1004
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:45,280
us.
So overall from the we do both

1005
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:49,520
top down and bottom up, right.
So top down, I've already spent

1006
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:51,880
all this time giving you guys
the top down.

1007
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:55,760
Why we think lithium and silver
should occupy a large part of

1008
00:59:55,760 --> 01:00:01,960
the portfolio and actually, OK,
never mind, good, don't go there

1009
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:07,120
for now.
Yeah, within the lithium space

1010
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:09,320
or at least enough or for these
mines.

1011
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:13,800
What we really look for, we look
for a good resource, one with,

1012
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:16,720
you know possibly good creates a
low strip ratios.

1013
01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:19,200
You know the technical stuff
that we find in that we dive

1014
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:23,600
into the DFS or PFS and try to
see why we like this more than

1015
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,200
other assets.
We look for trustworthy

1016
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:28,960
management.
We don't want management that,

1017
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:33,680
for example, touts their free
text MP VS.

1018
01:00:34,480 --> 01:00:36,640
I think we know who that is, who
that was.

1019
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:39,600
I think finally they've swept
out all the old guys.

1020
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:44,760
We don't want management that
promises a technology that is

1021
01:00:44,840 --> 01:00:50,720
unproven and, you know,
basically promising huge volumes

1022
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,080
in the next few years.
While while there's no real

1023
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:58,880
technical basis for it, I also
look at management behaviour in

1024
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,880
the sense that, well, I've, I've
run a few of my own businesses

1025
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,800
before so I have a bit of
entrepreneurial experience.

1026
01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:09,800
I can put myself in the seat of
the management and think would I

1027
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:13,520
do the same at this point in
time in the business or would I

1028
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:16,680
not?
So if I were a pre revenue

1029
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:20,520
company with many years before
even the first construction

1030
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:25,800
begins, would I hire a whole
suite of board members?

1031
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:29,720
Would I hire multiple C-Suite
executives?

1032
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:34,440
You know achieve accounting
officer when there is no revenue

1033
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,040
to account?
Flying business class mate.

1034
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:40,200
All right.
So.

1035
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:43,040
So.
That that layer of management

1036
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,040
integrity is very, very
important to us as well.

1037
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:49,160
So I look for clear financing
plan, I look for a healthy

1038
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:52,200
project timeline that is not,
you know, first production in

1039
01:01:52,200 --> 01:01:56,800
2031.
I look for volume growth in the

1040
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:58,720
next few years.
And that's really very important

1041
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:02,840
to me because if this company
can deliver this volume this

1042
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:06,680
year, this volume this year,
higher volumes in the next few

1043
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:10,040
years, that means that the
lithium price can stay exactly

1044
01:02:10,040 --> 01:02:12,440
where it is today.
And provided the company is cash

1045
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:16,560
profitable or or even profitable
today, they will be able to

1046
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:21,400
deliver revenue and profit
growth over this period without

1047
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:26,080
the lithium price moving at all.
And of course then the final

1048
01:02:26,080 --> 01:02:28,120
picker is a good exploration
upside.

1049
01:02:29,200 --> 01:02:33,760
So if you look at Slide 34, I
give a little bit of a sneak

1050
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,320
preview into one of the mines
mining companies that we cover

1051
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:41,240
and we'd like that we are
actually invested in try.

1052
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:43,600
Please, please don't try to go
figure out and tell everyone

1053
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:47,040
what this is, but this is how we
do it.

1054
01:02:47,320 --> 01:02:49,440
We forecast the production
volumes.

1055
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:53,640
We have our own price curve.
In the base case scenario, it

1056
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:57,440
pops out around 30,000 in 28 to
30.

1057
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:01,640
And then I constrain it down to
25,000 for the foreseeable

1058
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:07,280
future or at least until end of
mine just to constrain my DCF

1059
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:12,080
value to a much lower value than
if it were at 30 or 40,000.

1060
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:18,720
And if you look at slide 36, I
share a little bit about how a

1061
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:23,160
discount, these PCSI use a much,
much higher discount rate than

1062
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:28,160
what analysts and even other
investors do for producing

1063
01:03:28,160 --> 01:03:30,920
mines.
I discount them at 12 to 14%,

1064
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:32,960
right?
I'm pretty brutal on this.

1065
01:03:33,000 --> 01:03:35,640
I want my 12 to percent
discount.

1066
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:39,960
I want my because the discount
rate is essentially a required

1067
01:03:39,960 --> 01:03:42,360
return.
So for me as a fund manager, I

1068
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:47,760
require these mines to return 12
to 14% to the investor right at

1069
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:51,360
the at the asset level.
And then for the mines that are

1070
01:03:52,000 --> 01:03:55,240
further out with, you know,
financing or other hurdles to

1071
01:03:55,240 --> 01:03:58,040
clear, I discount them at 16 to
20%.

1072
01:03:58,440 --> 01:04:02,000
For those that are really far
out with high uncertainties, I

1073
01:04:02,000 --> 01:04:07,600
discount at 25% effectively to
negate their entire contribution

1074
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:09,120
to the enemy.
Got you.

1075
01:04:09,120 --> 01:04:11,120
So rather rather.
Than risking the cash.

1076
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:13,920
Flows like you, you see some
analysts do you just you just

1077
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:17,120
kind of are more punitive with a
with a different discount rate

1078
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:19,320
by project, correct.
I have such a.

1079
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:21,480
Punitive discount rate that if
you actually bring these

1080
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:24,920
discount rates down to all 10%
or something like that, right,

1081
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:28,440
my target price could double
beyond what I what it is in my

1082
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:32,040
model.
But why I'm here today to share

1083
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:35,560
with you guys is that the
lithium sector is so bond out

1084
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:39,320
right now even on low lithium
price assumptions or a lower but

1085
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:42,520
rising forward curve, a bit of
volume growth.

1086
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:47,320
We have companies with 162%
upside in this case.

1087
01:04:47,320 --> 01:04:50,040
And you can see a little bit of
a hint there's in a Canadian

1088
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:54,800
valuation.
So yeah, so if you bring the

1089
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:56,800
cost of you bring the price of
they can up a little bit.

1090
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:59,600
If you bring the discount rates
down a little bit, we could go

1091
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:06,640
to 203 percent, 300% upsides.
That's what we for, you know

1092
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:08,880
with your.
With your outlook and the, you

1093
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:11,360
know, the combination of the top
down and bottom up, you know,

1094
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:15,960
YJ, would you, would you be as
bold as sort of, you know, being

1095
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:18,560
quite confident that the lithium
market is has bottomed?

1096
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:20,440
Do you think, do you think we're
there?

1097
01:05:21,520 --> 01:05:23,880
Yeah, I will.
I will go on a on a link here,

1098
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:26,480
yes and say that it has bottomed
out.

1099
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:32,320
The lithium price is now so far
into the cost curve that we have

1100
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:37,760
companies shutting down and and
putting these project delays

1101
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:41,840
whose effects on the supply
balance over the next few years

1102
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:45,800
they cannot see because they
don't know how big the demand is

1103
01:05:45,800 --> 01:05:50,440
going to be.
I think if we look at this other

1104
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:55,720
slide with the supply and supply
demand balance which is slide

1105
01:05:55,720 --> 01:06:00,720
15, yeah, you can see that we
think that demand goes to about

1106
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:03,520
4.3 million tonnes by the end of
the year, by the end of the

1107
01:06:03,520 --> 01:06:07,440
decade.
We think that supply maximally

1108
01:06:08,080 --> 01:06:12,160
and, and this one this year is
in that of some of the refining

1109
01:06:12,160 --> 01:06:14,000
losses along the supply chain,
right?

1110
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:17,360
It goes to about 3.9 million
tonnes by the end of the decade.

1111
01:06:17,720 --> 01:06:23,120
There's still a gap here, no
single and, and, and this gap is

1112
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:26,480
very, very real because it
requires new mines, new projects

1113
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,720
to come online that we are not
tracking at all here, right?

1114
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:32,880
It needs to be a surprise.
Lithium prices need to be high

1115
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:38,320
enough for all the Lapido light
being imputed in this model to

1116
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:40,440
come online.
Lithium prices need to be high

1117
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:43,680
enough for all the DLE to
produce.

1118
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:48,360
It needs to be high enough of
backer pass to produce right And

1119
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:51,720
all the other higher cost
sources to actually come online

1120
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:55,880
to make up this to bring the
global supply to just 3.9

1121
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:59,160
million tonnes.
And Even so, it's a deficit.

1122
01:06:59,840 --> 01:07:04,080
So this just makes you a while
since we're all short term

1123
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:09,360
focus, right next year, I think
we go from a large oversupply

1124
01:07:09,360 --> 01:07:11,480
this year to closer to market
balance.

1125
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:13,280
Well, that was a bloody, that
was a.

1126
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:15,720
RIP snorter of a chat.
We had to cut him off a bit

1127
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:18,200
there early.
We had a bit of a little memory

1128
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:21,640
card run out, but we at least
thank God it run out at an hour

1129
01:07:21,640 --> 01:07:25,600
10, not ten that that's true.
That was that was positive, but.

1130
01:07:25,600 --> 01:07:27,320
You got there, We only lost 5
minutes.

1131
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:31,000
Sorry.
YJ but mate sends a ripping yarn

1132
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:36,080
and as I said buddy, Lithium
MD's are gonna be tingling

1133
01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:38,760
listening to all that.
He's Mate, he's big on Twitter.

1134
01:07:38,760 --> 01:07:41,880
Give him a follow.
On on Twitter, his his handle is

1135
01:07:42,720 --> 01:07:45,680
at usually YJ Lee.
So keep following him on

1136
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:48,280
Twitter.
He's big on Twitter YJ the GC.

1137
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:51,280
Love your work.
Bloody YJ bloody.

1138
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:54,520
Oh mate.
Yeah, I've always told you how

1139
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:58,120
good access mining technology is
in the last week or two.

1140
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:00,480
No, I haven't heard it.
Oh, there you go, I've told you.

1141
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:03,960
Just remember that everyone.
Your trusted advisor and drill

1142
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:07,480
Isle survey instrumentation.
Jeez, everyone else is freaking

1143
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:11,040
awesome on this list too.
Mineral mining services MMS

1144
01:08:11,280 --> 01:08:14,160
verify.
Holy snapping duck shit idea.

1145
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:16,319
Get your tickets for drill 24
mate.

1146
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:20,840
Tickets are going brilliant
there so get in while they're

1147
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:24,359
still available because I reckon
we're selling that thing out.

1148
01:08:24,600 --> 01:08:29,520
Drill 24 mate.
DSI underground Silverstone for

1149
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,399
the gold medals.
CRE sure it's Greenland's

1150
01:08:32,399 --> 01:08:36,960
equipment K drill and you didn't
see a spark chart, but you can

1151
01:08:36,960 --> 01:08:39,479
see it on your own computer if
you sign up for Spark.

1152
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:40,560
Thank you very much.
Hoodoo.

1153
01:08:40,560 --> 01:08:44,760
Hoodoo beautiful.
Information contained in this

1154
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:46,560
episode.
Of money of mine is of general

1155
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:48,880
nature only and does not take
into account the objectives,

1156
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:52,240
financial situation or needs of
any particular person.

1157
01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:55,560
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1158
01:08:55,560 --> 01:08:58,600
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1159
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:02,319
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.