Why BHP Will Return for Anglo (Again)

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Six months ago lithium was in
the doldrums and now I look at

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the lithium equities and they
are not in the doldrums.

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Has the world changed?
Is lithium.

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Hot again.
The change we've seen in six

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months is quite amazing.
So lithium has been running of

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late and Travis Ricciardo, big
mining, M&A is back on the

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scene.
Boy, have we got a bit to talk

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about today.
There's a couple stories that

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are front of mine.
Of course, nothing can trump the

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the headline that is BHP coming
back for Anglo, but not before

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they've withdrawn.
They're coming back for Anglo

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already.
I've got a hot take and that's

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it.
They'll come back again.

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I'm keen to talk about that.
Mate.

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You've been going deep on
lithium.

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I'm excited to talk about
lithium, mate A, you know, a

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returning mine, the Jung Shi Wu
mine, which has been wreaking

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havoc in the lithium market for
quite some time.

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And we've got a few Agms that we
ducked into.

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We might get on to them if we've
got time later on too.

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Keen to talk about those Agms
JD.

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Alrighty BHB Anglo mate.
I will lead us in here and give

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a bit of bit of context.
So these these two famous

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companies, the big Australian
and South Africa's most famous

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miner with a with a fantastic
long and complicated history.

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And it looks like BHB has come
back to the dance floor on this

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one.
Or maybe they never left.

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You know, so famously they were
they were flirting with one

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another throughout 2024.
BHB tabled an offer.

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It was a very kind of public
affair as it all kind of

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emerged.
That was version 1.

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Then it was kind of put to bed.
And then on Sunday, Bloomberg

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broke this story that the deal
is back on.

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BHB has tried to engage with the
Anglo board.

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They have engaged, they've
tabled an offer, but lo and

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behold, they have been rejected.
We find out within about 12

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hours.
So it was good while it lasted.

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We all sort of woke up here,
Western time in, in Perth, in

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Australia to seeing a kind of
double take of headlines.

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BHB is back on and then it's off
again.

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Now there's a few rules to know
about this one, which we'll,

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we'll kind of get into with the,
the UK takeover rules.

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But yeah, you've got a, you've
got a hot take and a bit more

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context to share on this one.
So lead us in mate.

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There's, there's quite a bit to
this one.

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Oh, and I'll add one more
detail.

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The the proposed deal that was
tabled was a share, shares and

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cash deal with no quantum being
shared.

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So we don't know what the exact
value on that one was, but we're

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going to try and infer a few
things and spin a bit of yarn

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about this one mate.
Yeah, we don't know.

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We don't know what the value was
right, But we do know that that,

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that the last deal that was sort
of tabled, the implied value was

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like 4949 billion US for, for
Anglo.

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Now Anglo trades today around
like 42 billion Anglo's embarked

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on some sort of simplification
like model since.

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So look, look who knows?
I, I think, I think the, the

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implied offer was probably north
of that, but, but while this

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looks like a retreat on paper,
mate, I'm not, I'm not buying

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it.
I think BHP is coming back.

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So forget, forget the type UK
takeover mechanics for just a

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moment.
Bear with me.

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I'm going to talk about the
rationale of why BHP needs this

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or we'll, we'll, we'll do this.
Look at the statement out from

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BHP themselves.
So Monday morning they come out

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with this, this statement saying
that, you know, they're,

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they're, they're with no, that
the deal is not on and, and what

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are they, what are they state in
this, in this kind of, in this,

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this one pager, they say.
Whilst BHP continues to believe

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that a combination with Anglo
American would have had strong

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strategic merits and created
significant value for all

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stakeholders, BHP is confident
in the highly compelling

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potential of its own growth
strategy, own organic growth

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strategy.
OK, so they talk about their own

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organic growth strategy.
Let's take a look at that

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organic growth strategy because
BHP themselves were very

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transparent about their organic
copper growth strategy.

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In a Chile site, there's a
copper deck 12 months ago,

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almost exactly 12 months ago.
And what they included in this,

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in this deck 12 months ago that
they put out publicly is this

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slide showing the capital
intensity of their organic

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copper growth in Chile.
Look at the cost of it roughly

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and I'm rounding, I'm rounding
here, but roughly 30,000 U.S.

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dollars per incremental tonne
of, of copper production.

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So that is, that is the reality
of their organic copper growth

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pipeline.
Incremental tons are extremely

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capital intensive.
Now if BHP could lock in that

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that cost, just say commit and
know with certainty that they're

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going to pay $30,000 per ton US
additional organic copper growth

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or copper production.
So for those for those kind of

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wondering, we're talking about
the upfront CapEx you need to

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spend to get these tons
incremental.

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Ton and these are brownfields
expansion too.

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But but the reality of, of that
capital is it is uncertain.

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You're making an estimate based
on the best information you have

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at a point in time, right?
And and if they could, if they

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could have certainty around
that, maybe I would believe the

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rhetoric that the BHP is not
coming back again.

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But but I but, but these are,
these are numbers with

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uncertainty and it's just the
reality of, of capital projects.

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The real cost is uncertain and
it almost always blows out.

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BHP is starkly aware of this
too, because in the exact same

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presentation, they include this
slide which shows the rapid rate

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at which brownfields expansions
are getting starkly more expense

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expensive over time.
Like this.

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This chart shows you Latin
American capital intensity of

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copper growth for brownfields
projects has soared by 65% in

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real dollar terms.
So, you know, adjusting for

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inflation over the last decade.
In other words, organic is not

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cheap and it's not getting
cheaper.

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It's slow, it's political, it's
uncertain and it's capital

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heavy.
Anglo's copper is here today.

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It's quicker, it's cleaner, it's
more scalable.

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BHP's organic copper intensity
is skyrocketing and by the, and

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this is by their own admission
rights.

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So buying existing copper tons
from Anglo or by buying Anglo,

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in my opinion, it's rational.
It's not necessarily

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opportunistic.
This is rational and the

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opportunity cost of walking away
on the other hand is actually

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quite high, which is which is
why I don't believe this is a

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genuine walk away.
Here's the other thing too,

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right?
Remember when the Anglo Tech

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deal emerged and one of the
slides there talks about the,

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the annual synergies of of $800
million per annum of our

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supposed synergies in the Anglo
Tech deal because of the, the,

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the operational synergies
between QB and Colossi.

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Well, there's no doubt in my
mind that those synergies are

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available to an interloper like
BHP 2, because it's clearly

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going to be very like very clear
economic rationale for JV to

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exist there now.
So yeah.

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Just need to get all the parties
online.

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It's not like those synergies
are exclusive to these two

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companies merging.
So why should the market assume

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this isn't a genuine walkway to
to kind of elaborate on, on the

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point you've just made and maybe
just touch on the, the UK

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takeover rules which we've we've
alluded to there?

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So UK, UK takeover laws, it's
like put up, shut up, and yet

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you're effectively you're
sidelined for six months for

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making another, another bid.
There are exceptions to that as

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well, right?
The code itself lists the escape

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hatches.
So there's like board consent, A

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rival firm offer, or a Rule 9
waiver proposal that fails.

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Plus, Angler sort of lets them.
Plus like the other thing to

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think about here too is that
the, the timeline on the tech

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angler deal itself, this is a
deal that's not going to be

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complete in six months.
There's a very long period of

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time that this deal is kind of
like, you know, in, in the mix

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just because of the, the lengthy
approvals that are required from

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various different, you know,
regulatory, you know,

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competition, etcetera, all of
these different approvals that

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they need.
So I think there's still

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probably like 12 months to go
before this deal completes.

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So BHP can come back in six
months and mount, you know, more

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shareholder pressure in the
interim.

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And I think make a, make a, make
another, another go at this.

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So BHP they've turned up twice
and you don't do that unless the

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the strategic itch is very real
and strong.

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The long term kind of copper
narrative inside BHP has not

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changed in 24 hours.
I think like situations like

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this, they, they almost never
present themselves.

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This is this is a global
diversified major under pressure

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mid transformation with a world
class South American copper

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footprint and it's in play.
If you want this portfolio, you

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have to be bold and you have to
move while it's in play.

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Because think of BHP for for
over a decade they've been

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shouting from the rooftops how
horny they are for copper.

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In in October 2026, they even
published a piece titled The

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Bullish Thesis for Copper. 2016,
yeah. 20/20/2016 So they've

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deviated like this has been over
a decade that they have been

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like shouting how how much they
how bullish they are copper.

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We spoke about it with Hugh
Makai, Yeah.

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It's, it's clear, it's clear
that, you know, internally this

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is the commodity that, that they
want more of.

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So look, am I supposed to
believe that in the, in the very

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short window that, that a
phenomenal world class cup of

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portfolio becomes gettable that
the BHP is gonna, gonna, gonna

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let it get away from them?
I, I, I don't believe that this

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is a, yeah, a world class
portfolio.

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They're going to have to open
the wallet and pay an

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uncomfortable price to get it.
Now that's the, that's the bit

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the BHP is going to have to
contend with is paying an

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uncomfortable price.
But I'm going to wager that will

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do just that.
JD I like it.

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I'll also wager that it'll be
worth it, but you know, time

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will prove that wrong or right.
Time, time indeed will prove

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that one wrong or right.
Yeah, the, the capital intensity

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is a fascinating point that
needs to be obviously contrasted

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with what you're paying to get
the assets.

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And yeah, there's a bit of
detail in what BHB would do with

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the assets that they don't want
within, within Anglo.

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Obviously Anglo's kind of try to
RIP themselves apart to on the

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back of the BHB deal last year,
but a lot to play out there.

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They've made themselves more
attractive in the process.

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They've they've, I mean, they've
divested the PGM business at

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cyclical lows.
They've clearly got something in

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the works with the beers, which,
you know, we'll see that kind of

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business divested.
Got close to I met Cole and met

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Cole.
Yeah, I mean, they fumble the

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footy a bit, but but it's, you
know, it's, it's, it's there

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for, it's there for BHP.
They're gonna have to make their

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mark.
But I yeah, I think this is, I

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think this is the kind of do you
regret not doing rather than

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regret doing.
That's that's my hunch.

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What do you reckon?
You hate paying out for stuff,

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don't you?
I do.

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Indeed, I do indeed.
Eyes on tech as well though and

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see what would happen out of the
the back of disruption here

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whether somebody else tries to
well.

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BHP coming for Anglo makes Rio
getting going for tech a lot

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easier.
Exactly.

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Exactly.
I think there's a lot of water

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to go into the bridge.
And yeah, just like you said, 18

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months from when the deal was
first announced that they

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thought it would get done, which
is a long, long time.

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And a deal like Anglo BHB would
have a lot of approvals and

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hopes to jump through as well.
But we'll sort of wait and see.

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Six months, yeah, it's not that
long in the scheme of things in,

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you know, to, to emphasize the
point you made.

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Speaking about how short six
months is made, six months ago

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lithium was in the doldrums and
now I look at the lithium

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equities and they are not in the
doldrums.

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Has the world changed?
Is lithium hot again?

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You know, I was thinking about
what's going on in lithium and

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what you've just kind of said
there is how I kind of tied up

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this story.
The the change we've seen in six

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months is quite amazing.
I'll start from the the

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beginning though.
So lithium has been running of

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late.
And in particular, one week ago,

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we saw the chair from Young Fang
Li Liang Bin come out with these

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very, very punchy comments
talking up specifically the ESS,

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the energy stationary storage
component of lithium demand.

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And he, he pretty much said the
price is going to boom, it's

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going to double in the next
year.

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And everyone got excited the,
the defects, which is these

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Chinese futures for, for
lithium, they shot up limit up

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9% on the day.
So they've obviously performed

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very, very strongly.
You had further good news with

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the Minarez deal.
People quite excited about the

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price that Minarez got for the
30% sell down of their operating

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assets there.
So I think there was sort of

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positive sentiment all around.
And if you look on the focus

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charts right here, mate, we're
showing Lyontown, IGO, Pilbara

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and Allevra, which is the old
say Sarona.

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And just look at the share price
tier between call it N10 and

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N20.
Lyontown is you know, it's

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closed above $1.60 for the first
time in a long time.

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Hilbra's traded over 4 bucks. 10
line town.

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Sorry, IGO has traded well north
of 7 bucks.

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This is this is boom times
again.

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Despite the price being in the
low one thousands, Kilbra is up

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nearly four times from its lows
a little while ago, and it's

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trading at an enterprise value
of 12:00-ish billion dollars.

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Like some of these numbers are
truly kind of astounding to for

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the the lithium price
environment in which we're in.

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Is this, do these valuations
make sense or is this just

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muscle memory of of people who
remember you know where things

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go in?
They they make no sense.

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They make no sense to me
personally, but I'm sure there's

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lithium bulls out there with
would completely justify.

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But there's a lot more
interesting stuff that has

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happened in the market.
So Min Res and Lintown have

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talked about selling parcels at
about 12:50 SE-6 equivalent that

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line Town 1 was dated for for
January.

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So that's one more interesting
kind of anecdote that we've

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seen.
But you've also got kind of

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cautious buyers of the physical
product in the market reading

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the kind of Chinese trade blogs
and what what's out there.

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A lot of people physically were
were stepping back from the

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market not wanting to to pay up,
which is another kind of

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interesting detail to to jot
down.

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That said, we are kind of seeing
destocking of of infantries more

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more broadly.
Add to that a lot of investment

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banks now we've we've kind of
shared our thoughts on on

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commodity price forecasting in
general a whole bunch in the

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past, but Baron Joey of note
lifted their forecast to 3250

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bucks next year.
That's almost the 3X from where

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we are today.
Bold.

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That is very.
Bold to say the least.

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Another interesting detail, a
particularly interesting detail

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is that Gangfang and Tianchi,
their stocks have not flown like

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the Western names have.
So Gangfang over the last month

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is down 10% and Tianchi is
roughly flat.

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Compare that with the names I
just mentioned as well as SQM,

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which is up 30% over the past
month and Albemarle pretty

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similar since early November
that that's a real divergent and

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00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,360
that's there's something quite,
quite interesting to to kind of

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think about and and try and
understand.

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So there's obviously a number of
different factors apply, one

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being the short interest.
We've seen a real ratcheting

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down of the short interest in
the Aussie Lithium names.

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You've also got the the retail
shareholder interest, which is

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very strong in the Aussie
lithium names.

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And I think that's one of the
reasons why we've seen a real

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beating up of of their equities.
And the last detail is that that

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anti involution kind of
component when it comes to the

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Chinese names.
We spoke about this specifically

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in the context of the Jiang
Shiwu mine, which is cattle's

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mine, which is a pretty decent
scale operation in the scheme of

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global lithium production.
Some people call it kind of 3%

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ish of global lithium supply.
Now, what I'm talking about

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there is that that that whole
story we spoke about a few

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months ago of the the Chinese
government stepping down and

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saying how you need to ratchet
up your environmental processes,

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all these sorts of things.
Essentially clamping down on

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kind of a bit more wild behavior
and, and professionalizing

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industry and stopping at the end
of the day, the the crazy price

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wars that Chinese players were
were having with one another.

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00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,200
Now, not everyone kind of buys
into that, but that was a

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00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:11,800
narrative that was very kind of
prevalent throughout the

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industry, so.
What what are we what are what

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are we missing then mate that.
Well, the, the, the bow to all

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of this kind of narrative of
this beautiful sentiment and

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00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:26,320
lithium running up is that over
the weekend cattle come out and

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00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,400
say, hey, you know what, we're
going to restart Jungshi Wu.

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00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,640
We might be able to do it next
month if if all our ducks kind

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00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,800
of line up and all of a sudden
the GFX futures are limit down,

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00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:41,000
spot falls almost 8%.
All the lithium names in on the

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00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,040
ISX and and abroad just get
hammered.

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00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:46,880
So yeah, a wild, wild kind of
couple weeks.

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00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:48,280
And who kind of knows where this
goes.

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00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,480
Who knows how serious the
Chinese government is about

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these permits and everything.
There was a a price tag floating

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around of what cattle would have
to pay to get the permit and all

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00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,240
of that in aligned.
But I think the the more

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00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,640
interesting kind of point to
make is especially in the

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context of Barringer putting
this pretty, pretty ballsy price

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00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,440
target out there is like, is
China going to be OK with the

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00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:10,640
prices just running up like
that?

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00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,680
Again, Remember that narrative
we spoke about for quite some

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00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,240
time?
Or China would just turn the tap

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00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,800
on And they're always going to
be be able to put that lipid

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00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,040
light supply back into the
market to hamper down to damper

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00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,000
down supply rather to make sure
that the price doesn't run away

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00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:27,040
so that downstream the EV
makers, all these players out

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00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:28,880
there don't get washed away on
price.

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So that that is one thing in the
back of my mind and it makes it

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makes me particularly curious to
see some of these investment

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banks come out with real strong
price targets for the pretty

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00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:41,240
immediate future.
When I sort of, you know, air

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00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,200
out all these kind of thoughts.
What do you kind of take on

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00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,800
board mate?
What do you think of the the

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00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,480
pretty astounding run up we've
seen in in some of these lithium

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names?
I think it's fun like, yeah, I

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00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,440
like I, you know, whether
whether the valuations make

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00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:03,000
sense or not, like it almost
doesn't matter as much because

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00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:05,520
lithium for as long as I we can
remember it.

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00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,400
So it's these stocks have traded
so much on sentiment and, and

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00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,200
like, yeah, where where people
think that prices are going to

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00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,760
go or where where people think
that investors or speculators or

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00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:18,640
retail are going to move to or
whatnot.

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00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,480
And I think, I think, I think
it's just the same old, same old

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00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,400
here.
I hope it's I hope it's a true

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00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,600
balance, but you never know,
mate.

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I.
I think that's that is what the

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00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,800
market has done more broadly as
well over the past five, 1015

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00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,400
years.
Things just trade on flows, on

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00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:39,000
sentiment, on liquidity, and
lithium does that more so than

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most others flushing out there.
They're definitely sorry.

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00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,880
They're definitely people like
we know who like, maybe weren't.

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00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:49,840
Yeah, like, like, like invested
to the extent that they thought

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00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:51,760
they should have been in the
last likely people market.

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00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,440
And then they say green shirts.
And like, this is the moment,

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00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,720
you know, better, better, better
buy like and get long.

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00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,960
And you're buying on valuations
that are maybe pricing in, you

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00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,560
know, prices that are beyond
where they are right now.

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00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:06,320
However, like the market is so
small, it doesn't take too much

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00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:07,360
demand to really move the
needle.

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00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,200
Couldn't agree more.
That's the point I want to close

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00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,080
on.
When you, you know, open the

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00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,400
segment you asked about, you
know, is it a time to buy and

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00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,840
these sorts of things?
Six months ago was the time to

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00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,600
buy all this stuff.
That's when it was hated.

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00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:22,080
And I know we we come from a
real, a real value lens when we

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00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,240
look at these these
opportunities, but.

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00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:25,960
You could have bought a month
that got pretty good valuations,

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00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:28,480
but.
Right now you're flushing out

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00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,160
already 1500 plus on a lot of
these names.

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00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,480
So you are, you know, baking in
upside.

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00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:37,520
But what do we know, mate?
We'll we'll see what the the

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00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,080
flows and the sentiment does
around these names and maybe

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00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:42,720
we'll be proven wrong over the
coming months.

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00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,880
No, we're, we might, we own a
lithium stock now.

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00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,440
So we're actually OK for happy
for it to go.

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00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:48,120
Up.
Ding Ding, Ding.

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00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:50,240
We do.
All right mate, Speaking of

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00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:52,920
things that people should own,
people should own Sandy Ground

387
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,280
support.
They should, they should, they

388
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,120
should get long, Derek Heard,
the fantastic team at Sandy

389
00:19:58,120 --> 00:20:01,640
Ground support servicing the
entire Australasian market from

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00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,080
none other than Newcastle,
Australia.

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00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:04,960
It's not just the entire
Australasian market.

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00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:08,160
This is a this is a global
mining division of Sandy which

393
00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:11,800
provide well keep keeps people
safe by putting ground support

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00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,840
in underground mines.
It is an absolute essential mate

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00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:18,680
across the globe and any time
that we ever think about bolts,

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00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:20,960
I think of Derek.
Any time we think about ground

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00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,200
support, I think of Derek.
And when I think of Derek, I

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00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:26,120
think of Sandvik.
When I think of Sandvik, I think

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00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,600
go, Sandvik, go.
Sandvik If you want the greatest

400
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,240
ground support in the industry
at your Mind site, get in the

401
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,600
show details, click on Sandvik
Ground Support or download the

402
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:36,920
app.
There's an app.

403
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:38,080
There's an app, mate.
Oh.

404
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,000
Jeez, hang on, two seconds.
Got the app.

405
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,560
There we go, mate.
All right, Agms, it's AGM

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00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,880
season.
Shall we talk?

407
00:20:47,120 --> 00:20:48,440
We've got a couple to talk about
here.

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00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:50,080
Should we go?
Should we go?

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00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,560
Min raise to start well.
Hey, let's just, let's lead in.

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00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,560
We, we, we made an effort this
this year to go to a bunch of

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00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,640
Agms.
And these are, yeah, we've got a

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00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,360
bunch in our diary that we
haven't gone to yet that we're

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00:21:01,360 --> 00:21:03,800
still going to go to in the last
week of AGM season.

414
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:06,400
But we've been to like 6-6 or so
like already.

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00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:10,320
And and we've gone like we've
picked out Agms of companies

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00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:14,200
that that we generally don't see
too much of from an investor

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00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,400
facing perspective because they
don't do quarterly calls.

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00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,920
But they they sort of weren't,
you know, our attention because

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00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,760
they're they're large, they're
corporately active, they're

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00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,280
doing stuff.
And so we picked out a bunch of

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00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:27,680
Agms that we've been to, we're
going to min rest doesn't fit in

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00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,600
the category of of being being
hard to find out investor stuff.

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00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,560
I mean, the AGM streamed and
everything that we just want.

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00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,840
That's just like a must attend.
We had to go to that one.

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00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,280
Yeah.
So we went to a bunch of others

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00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,200
and to your point, learn stuff
at each one of them, learned a

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00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,320
lot at every single one of them.
So it's well worth going and to

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00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:50,840
the point you made a few weeks
ago on the show, Get down if you

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00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,400
own shares and one of them get
down because there is stuff to

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00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,120
be learned.
I reckon we should kick off by

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00:21:55,120 --> 00:21:57,640
sharing a couple of thoughts on
Minres.

432
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,800
Yep, Yep.
So the big story is Ellison's

433
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,000
staying.
Was that that wasn't that wasn't

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00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,680
really a story from the IT.
Was it was confirmation from the

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00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:06,920
company?
I didn't.

436
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:07,960
I don't think that was a
headline.

437
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,440
Like, I know it was a headline,
but I don't think that was like

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00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,960
news, if you know what I mean.
What, what kind of tops that

439
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:16,400
coming out of it?
To be honest, I just thought

440
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:22,240
that the company turn around
like tops that yeah, like we we

441
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:24,600
were there 12 months ago, very
different situation like a lot

442
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,720
more uncertainty, ambiguity that
state of the business.

443
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:31,800
Clearly, clearly the the the
business is in a lot better, a

444
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,400
lot better health.
Like there's a lot a lot of the

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00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,600
uncertainty stuff is there over
the hill in in a lot of respects

446
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,840
that the balance sheet looks
like, you know, especially in

447
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,200
the wake of the the 30% sell
down of the lithium business

448
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,160
deposit code.
Like it looks it looks

449
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,600
completely out of control.
And I think, I think things are

450
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,560
on the up from a, from an
operational performance

451
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,440
perspective and, and financial
performance perspective.

452
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:58,280
And there's just a lot, lot less
uncertainty on the, on the, the

453
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,040
ramp up kind of deliverables
there.

454
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,760
Yes, we're going into summer.
But the thing I keep thinking

455
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,680
about is, you know, even when
they were doing repairs on that

456
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:10,640
road, their ability to get tons
to ship tons really surprised

457
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,320
me.
The upside and these iron ore

458
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,640
prices, they're they're, they're
killing it.

459
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,680
Yeah, I think you've hit all the
notes there.

460
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,400
They've fetched a greater price
than the street thought they

461
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,440
would for that sell down of the
lithium business.

462
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,960
That does wonders for the
balance sheet.

463
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,000
It's, you know, it's still a
stretch, but no longer as bad as

464
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,840
it once was.
There's been a lot of turnover

465
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,240
at the board.
That's, that's kind of no

466
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,040
secret, but I thought Mal Bundy
did a great job and I think he's

467
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,880
really reassured a lot of
investors out there.

468
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,160
And the, yeah, the whole, the
whole vibe about the place was

469
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,720
it was quite different.
I think the, the business is in

470
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,360
a much steadier footing and what
they've delivered today at

471
00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:53,880
Onslow, it has been nothing but
but impressive.

472
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,720
And let's see how that kind of
continues and let's see how they

473
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,600
execute on some of the growth
goals which we know they've all

474
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,120
got deep down and on what they
want to do with Onslow.

475
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,920
Yeah, yeah.
So to your point on on Allison

476
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,480
staying or leaving, I did go to
Joe Aston's breakfast on Friday

477
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,560
last week in Perth and he
alluded to a situation in which

478
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,720
he does leave, but I'll see if
that one pans out before I

479
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,480
speculate on it.
More to be said on that one.

480
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,840
OK, deep yellow.
Next up, we weren't allowed to

481
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,360
intend this one.
No visitors were allowed to

482
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:29,040
intend attend this one, but
there has been some interesting

483
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,400
kind of shenanigans that this
business of late hasn't there.

484
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,840
Yeah.
So, so like this first came when

485
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,400
our radar is an AGM worth going
to.

486
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,680
Well, OK, John Boshop's
departure in the lead up did

487
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,080
seem clearly like suspicious and
abrupt.

488
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,440
You know, you don't have a
tenured kind of person like like

489
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,960
John Boshop just depart
effective immediately without

490
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,160
knowing that this guy was
showing the door.

491
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,320
So why was he showing the door?
What did what did the board

492
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,560
disagree with him about?
All mysterious and never really

493
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,760
got answered.
And then you see yeah, like a

494
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:02,440
few days before the AGM 33 kind
of, you know, high profile

495
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:08,440
shareholders all, all kind of
lodge an initial substantial

496
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,240
shareholder in concert together.
Because they, they basically,

497
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,920
you know, in this, in this, in
this announcement or in this, in

498
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,120
this disclosure reveal that they
have an intention to, to

499
00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:20,880
requisition a shareholder
meeting to vote on a change in

500
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,080
the board, which is a Section
249-D effectively.

501
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,400
So we're thinking, OK,
shareholders are having a,

502
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,280
having a crack here and they
want to, they want to air their

503
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,520
frustration in the, in the, in
John Borscht's departure.

504
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:36,360
Then we see this article in the,
in the AFR as well where David

505
00:25:36,360 --> 00:25:37,600
Paradise, one of these three
shareholders.

506
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,240
So he paired up with Sol Patz
and McMillan.

507
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,600
David Paradise, who doesn't
speak up very often, by the way.

508
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,000
Like, I wouldn't describe
Paradise as an activist or even,

509
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,240
like, you know, really much of A
vocal publicly shareholder.

510
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,240
But he says, I'm sending a few
of our people to go and have a

511
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,560
crack at them tomorrow.
That's a big statement from

512
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:57,680
David Paradise, I thought.
I like that.

513
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,800
It was good, good, good.
Unfortunately we couldn't

514
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,960
witness the the crack that was
had at them because we weren't

515
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:04,320
allowed in.
By the way, I think this is an

516
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:10,000
absolute load of shit to any any
company that just like blocks

517
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,160
out visitors or not or non
shareholders from actually

518
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,160
coming along to the to to to an
AGM or an AGM.

519
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,600
I've seen it three times only
and all three times they were

520
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:20,880
hiding something mate.
So.

521
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:23,240
Yeah, I couldn't, I couldn't
agree more.

522
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:28,200
It's, it's deplorable to to not
let visitors or media, whoever

523
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,320
come on down and, you know,
whether that be from from nerves

524
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,760
from the board or, or whatever,
just let the people in, you

525
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:35,760
know, you've, you've got to
stick by the decision you've

526
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,440
made.
Will John Borshoff return?

527
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,360
I think it's the bigger kind of
question to be answered here.

528
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:44,520
And yeah, I think I think
there's kind of question marks

529
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,800
to that one because obviously
the shareholders got together on

530
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,920
that point, but they haven't
called an AGM yet.

531
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,880
They haven't gone that step.
We saw the voting come at the

532
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,600
back and we'll flash it on the
on the screen so you can see how

533
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,080
how shareholders actually voted.
So we're talking 20% against a

534
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,080
couple of directors, 40% against
another.

535
00:27:01,360 --> 00:27:04,760
And then there's a couple loans
that copped a heavy vote

536
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,480
against, but that's not enough.
I did.

537
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:14,560
Jump Borsroff's loan shares.
Yeah, none of that is enough for

538
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:19,120
any of those directors not to be
reelected or anything like that.

539
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,280
And now we kind of sit and wait
and see whether they do put

540
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,240
forward an AGM Section 249-D and
try and have another crack at

541
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,720
overthrowing the board and
perhaps invite a few more

542
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,240
investors onto their ticket to
to vote against these things.

543
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:33,480
open-ended question there.
TBA, right?

544
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,960
A couple of a couple of gold
companies we went to their their

545
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:41,080
Agms because we've talked about
them plenty and we don't really

546
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,360
never really met some of these
people.

547
00:27:42,360 --> 00:27:47,280
So like vault in Genesis, the
the whole battle for Leonora

548
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,960
was, you know, at the time fault
was called Silver Lake.

549
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,120
But but that's the management
team.

550
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:53,880
We we never, we never met these
people.

551
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,480
We never met Luke Duncan.
I don't think you can find video

552
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,800
footage of Luke Duncan online.
Like maybe you can, maybe you

553
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,240
can't, but but we never hear his
voice in any calls or anything

554
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,520
like that.
Like when when Silverlight

555
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,480
merged with Red, he didn't speak
in that on that call or

556
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,560
anything.
No diggers, prezzos, nothing

557
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,080
like that.
So, but yeah, so but then it was

558
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,480
his last AGM because he's
announced his resignation and he

559
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,880
was quite likeable, mate.
He was actually, he was.

560
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:22,720
He won a sofa.
I, I learnt a lot at both the

561
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,880
Genesis and the Vault Agms.
And I thought, you know, to your

562
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:32,200
point on Tonkin, the way
handled, you know, a plethora of

563
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:36,000
questions from, from investors
and investor in particular was,

564
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,960
yeah, it was fascinating.
Love the opportunity to speak

565
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,640
with management of these
companies after the meeting to

566
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,360
ask a few questions and these
sorts of things.

567
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,880
And yeah, it was fantastic to
put faces to a lot of the names

568
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,240
that we've spoken so much about
over the past couple of years.

569
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,480
Genesis another one where unless
you go to the AGM like it's,

570
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,960
it's hard to to to tune into the
what's going on at the company

571
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,880
unless you're, you know, and and
insto who gets to that the

572
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:06,200
rundown very frequently.
But but also that was that like

573
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:07,880
that was that was very
informative for me.

574
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,680
And, and subsequent to the, to
that AGM, they did get a, a, a,

575
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:17,720
you know, a rail user agreement,
agreement to, to, to shorten the

576
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,520
length of the, the rail, the
rails of the terminus is, is

577
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,680
earliest effectively allowing
Tower Hill to kind of move

578
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,600
forward in, in, in, in the full
kind of stage 1 and stage two

579
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,760
way down the track, which, which
is, which is really transformed.

580
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,640
And that's going to be their
best or body that they'll have

581
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:34,280
to mind.
It was the first time I thought

582
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,920
maybe Genesis isn't expensive,
maybe because I understood the

583
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,400
business in a better way.
What a contrast in management

584
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:42,920
styles between Vault and
Genesis.

585
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,880
Totally, Yeah.
That that really stuck out to

586
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,840
me.
But but both valid, you know

587
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,880
like yeah.
Absolutely each set around.

588
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,840
The other reason we went to
Genesis and Vault it is of

589
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,000
course because I keep
speculating that there's going

590
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:57,960
to be a merger between these two
companies.

591
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,760
JD hasn't happened yet.
Maybe my timing is off, but it's

592
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:02,960
going to come.
And here's my here's my thesis,

593
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:06,800
right?
Well, the thesis as well is

594
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,920
obvious the synergies, but but
here's my thesis of why I think

595
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,360
it happens like sooner rather
than later.

596
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,920
When we were at the vault AGM,
even though Tonks was over,

597
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,840
there was no mention of a
succession plan, no mention of

598
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,560
an executive search to find a
new MD, no mention of like, you

599
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,840
know, even internal, like the
whole topic was just like not

600
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,920
addressed.
So that's one piece of

601
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:32,400
information.
I wonder if they're actually is

602
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,480
going to be, you know, a new MD
after Tonkin or if it's really

603
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:40,120
his departure is just like a
timer to an inevitable deal with

604
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,000
with Genesis.
The other thing too is bolts

605
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,040
gone like owner operator on a
bunch of on all of their assets.

606
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:52,080
So deflector king of the hill.
So they moved to go like owner

607
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,760
operator.
There is that because you've got

608
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,000
Genesis mining services, so you
can just port over their own

609
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:58,680
existing owner operator model
when and then measure genesis.

610
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:03,200
That's another thing in my head
and what else has been going on?

611
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,160
OK.
So imagine if black these two

612
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,160
companies had discussions in the
past and they couldn't quite get

613
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,600
there on like on on bid R spread
or subsequent to that Vault's

614
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,960
done this like announced A
buyback stock re rated it's sort

615
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:16,040
of outperformed Genesis on since
the buyback.

616
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,720
So maybe that's like the the
premium that happens before a

617
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:23,800
deal to enable kind of like a
more nil premium kind of merger

618
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,400
between these two companies?
Make it more palatable to.

619
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,440
Vault shareholders, Maybe.
Maybe.

620
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,600
Anyway, these are the things
ruminating in my head, and I'd

621
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,600
convince myself that we were
going to say something before

622
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,360
Christmas.
Now I no longer think that, but

623
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:39,680
you never know.
You just never know.

624
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,560
Tower Hill getting closer to
being milled.

625
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,720
Makes a lot of sense to send
that up to King of the Hills.

626
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,520
I I think so.
I think so.

627
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:50,720
I'm preaching to the converted
here.

628
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,920
Yeah, by the way, we we spoke
about the good news on on Tower

629
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,920
Hill, like it sounds like, you
know, Vault vault might have

630
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,840
some good news on on the way in
relation to Sugar Zone as well.

631
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,600
Yeah.
So wins all around hopefully on

632
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,920
on unlocking these these into
projects which have been

633
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,360
awaiting a bit of an approval or
or a permitting sort of

634
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,080
situation.
Taking a while to get there, but

635
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,760
I think so.
Yeah, beautiful mate.

636
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,960
Well, that kind of that's that's
my, that's my like deal.

637
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,640
Watch for the for the for the
week out of the way.

638
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:23,360
We'll see if Cavs got some more
deal.

639
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:25,520
Watch for us.
Looking forward to Christmas

640
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,240
mate.
Emma, Dave Looking forward to

641
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:29,000
Christmas, mate.
We're in the festive season.

642
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,000
A massive thank you to Sandvik
Ground Support Focus the

643
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,120
platform by market tech,
Introlinks and switch

644
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,400
technologies, right Hodoru
Hodoru.

645
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,320
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

646
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,720
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

647
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,400
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out a

648
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:46,920
disclaimer.