Who’ll benefit most from gold mania?
With gold rocketing, we start the show by running through interesting undeveloped Aussie gold projects flying under the radar.
Next we move to MP Materials, which has been caught in the cross hairs of the trade war, followed by an ‘around the grounds’ chat of all the big news from the past couple days, including, Bellevue, WA1, Gorilla Gold, CZR, Strickland, Santana, Deep Yellow & De Grey.
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(0:00:00)Intro
(0:03:19)Who’ll benefit most from gold mania?
(0:14:16)Is the MP Materials outlook as rosy as it seems
(0:24:21)What's happening around the grounds
00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:02,120
As a side note though we talk
about Mcfilmy's.
2
00:00:02,120 --> 00:00:05,120
Do you remember when Mcfilmy
study came out nine months ago
3
00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,920
and it was pretty underwhelming
and we we were a bit, a bit
4
00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:10,800
unimpressed by the numbers.
But when it came out the the
5
00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,520
base case scenario development
scenario used the gold price of
6
00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:19,160
an Australian dollar terms $3000
per oz which gave it an
7
00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:23,480
underwhelming post tax NPV of
just $451 million.
8
00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,800
Now Spot gold price is $2400 an
ounce higher than that as of
9
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,120
today.
Chuck that gold, Bryce in the
10
00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,480
model Mcfilmies MPV is suddenly
$2.3 billion.
11
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,560
That is the sort of talk that
these development projects have
12
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:39,920
in a in a rising gold market
and.
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00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:46,560
Righto money miners.
Big big news that is completely
14
00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:48,440
fucked my day.
Shaken westward.
15
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,480
Let's eat lunch bar is closed.
Oh, Q&T have obviously taken a
16
00:00:52,480 --> 00:00:55,000
holiday and I just, you've seen
me today.
17
00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,360
I've been in turmoil.
I had to eat something else and
18
00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,680
I just felt like I was cheating
on.
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00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,040
Him do you notice how much more
quiet the streets are when when
20
00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:05,200
there's no line out the front
of.
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00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:06,800
Let's it barn me.
Apocalypse.
22
00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:08,640
Yeah, it's friggin.
Oh.
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00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,120
Anyway, you know, I'll tell you
what, I've got live footage of a
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00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,640
place that isn't closes, closed
and never closes. 24 hours.
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00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:18,360
The Black Diamond drilling
factory.
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00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,520
Have a look at this shit.
Berries, bloody drill,
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00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,040
consumables, open pit,
underground flying out
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00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,840
everywhere.
This is live footage from today
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00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,480
today.
Today, rattle off to us what
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00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:32,120
they can.
What can they do to you?
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00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:33,960
Pretty.
Much you want a bloody drill, A
32
00:01:33,960 --> 00:01:36,400
hole that doesn't need a Ryobi
handheld thing.
33
00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,320
Black Diamond the team for you.
We're talking down the hall.
34
00:01:40,320 --> 00:01:44,560
Hammer bits, Rotary bits, bloody
RC hammers mate.
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00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,000
Just top hammer diamond drill
consumables.
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00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,200
They make rigs.
Oh they bloody, they bloody do.
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00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,320
They're probably making a rig
right now if you want it mate.
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They're just and we're talking
open pit and underground mate.
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00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:02,120
They are the full drill
consuming book turnkey solution.
40
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,120
They might.
It is freaking impressive.
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00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,240
This factory, it is frigging
hectares.
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00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,080
Like mate, it is flying.
So they're working today.
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00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:15,720
Q&T are not, but that is OK.
Yeah, and they work with the the
44
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,120
best in the industry, from the
from the new monster, the Rios
45
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,160
of the world to whoever you're
working for, because you can
46
00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:22,880
just pick up the phone, give
them a call.
47
00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,040
Mate get business shy nights.
If you need an intro, you just
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00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,360
give me a buzz because it sounds
good coming from me, right?
49
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,480
What do we got?
So she's she's a bit slighted.
50
00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,960
I also because I've got to get
all antsy on public holidays
51
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,360
because the market's not open
and like, what do I do with my
52
00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:39,800
life?
Can't scroll watch list and oh
53
00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,680
there's not apes out today but.
You found quite it, Yeah, in the
54
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,280
end.
The gold price is the news to, I
55
00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:46,920
mean the gold price is up 5%
today.
56
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,520
And as a result, the things that
are moving in the market are the
57
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,080
gold stocks and that's what I'm
going to talk about.
58
00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,040
Very good, JD, what do you got?
Bras.
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00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,120
There's quite a bit going on at
MP material, so I touched on the
60
00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,560
rare earth stuff last week, but
I think there's there's quite a
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00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,080
bit of fallout from the tariffs,
so I'm going to talk about that.
62
00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,960
I'd like to special shout out to
Maddie Gabriel from Market Index
63
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:09,800
for providing me the feature to
just look at all the
64
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,280
announcements since Thursday.
So I've just taken about 6000
65
00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,920
screenshots and we're doing it
around the grounds for the last
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00:03:15,920 --> 00:03:16,600
couple of days.
Let's.
67
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,080
Do it.
Let's start with the Goldies,
68
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:19,240
Trev.
Yeah.
69
00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,600
I mean this is it's quite
remarkable to see in the gold
70
00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,400
price go up 5% in a single day
and it's like a couple 100 bucks
71
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,760
in Australian dollar terms.
It's just one day it.
72
00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,600
Used to be 10%.
It's, it's, it's, it's kind of
73
00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,360
remarkable.
And yeah.
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00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:34,680
And we're, we're seeing, we're
seeing gold equities obviously
75
00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:37,240
like follow that trend.
A lot of gold, gold companies
76
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,040
are, are, are, you know, heading
a fair bit north of where they
77
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:41,320
were just at the start of the
year.
78
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,920
And we, we love, we love
commodity markets because of
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00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,560
that dynamic that can sometimes
happen in, in a commodity market
80
00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,200
where you get the, you know,
the, the, the, the thing that's
81
00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,240
not priced in happen that the
commodity price goes up, the
82
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:57,240
stocks go up.
And sometimes you get these like
83
00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,240
option, like dynamics with the
undeveloped projects that are
84
00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,760
now in the money.
And I'm kind of keen to have a
85
00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,840
look at some of those, some of
those, you know, option like
86
00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:06,840
projects out there in the gold
market, because everyone's
87
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,520
trying to think like, oh, if
gold price stays up or keeps
88
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:12,240
going up, then, you know,
where's, where is value left in
89
00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,120
this trade?
And a lot of people will argue
90
00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,200
that there's still, there's
still value in the trade for the
91
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,240
producers, which aren't pricing.
And that spot will be where it
92
00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,079
is for forever and all that sort
of stuff.
93
00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:23,720
And but you know, but I'm kind
of keen to just see the option
94
00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,200
like kind of come, you know, the
projects that that are, you
95
00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,680
know, that might have gone
through a a a bit of a cycle to
96
00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:31,880
be pretty in the money now and
what?
97
00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,840
What are the sort of parameters
for companies you're looking at
98
00:04:33,840 --> 00:04:35,480
mate?
Well, I'm, I'm just thinking
99
00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,720
like, yeah, advanced an advanced
gold development project in
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00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:40,520
Australia.
I just kind of, you know, wanted
101
00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,520
to to to limit, limit it.
And I'm not all that interested
102
00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,360
in the the projects which are
held by existing producers, you
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00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:47,560
know, or a major or anything
like that.
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00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,000
So I'm not talking about the,
the hemis of that or the have
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00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,720
runs of the world or even like,
you know, the Mcphillamys which,
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00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:55,680
which are development projects
or, or growth projects that are
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00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,800
within the portfolio of an
existing producer.
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00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,640
I, I want the, I want the, the
stock that has exposure to the
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00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:01,760
development, if that makes
sense.
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00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:04,920
As a side note, though, we
talked about Mcphillamys.
111
00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,920
Do you remember when Mcphillamys
study came out nine months ago
112
00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,680
and it was pretty underwhelming
that we, we were a bit, a bit
113
00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,560
unimpressed by the numbers.
But when it came out the, the
114
00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,840
base case scenario development
scenario used a gold price of in
115
00:05:17,840 --> 00:05:22,000
Australian dollar terms $3000
per oz which gave it an
116
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:26,360
underwhelming post tax NPV of
just $451 million.
117
00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:30,640
Now Spot gold price is $2400 an
ounce higher than that as of
118
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,880
today.
If you Chuck that gold price in
119
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:36,320
the model Mcfillum is NPV
suddenly $2.3 billion.
120
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,400
That is the sort of talk that
these development projects have
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00:05:40,840 --> 00:05:43,560
in a, in a rising gold market.
And so you know what, what was
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00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,720
underwhelming kind of nine
months ago can be pretty damn
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00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,920
attractive right now.
And I'm kind of, I'm kind of on
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00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:53,080
a mission to, to, to try and
identify or look at, you know,
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00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,720
you know, projects that sort of
fit that bill that might, might
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00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:57,840
all of a sudden be be pretty
valuable in this kind of market.
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00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,440
So it's pretty unreal.
The IRR is probably going from
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00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,480
what, 17% into like 35 or
something?
129
00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,840
Probably a fair bit higher and
like you just think about the
130
00:06:05,840 --> 00:06:08,600
payback period and developing
these things too because the
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00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,160
gold price is so high, the
payback period is is super,
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00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,160
super quick.
And I'm also kind of limiting my
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00:06:13,280 --> 00:06:16,720
my search to, you know, those
developers which are kind of
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00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,280
producing right now, you know,
think, think of blackout or
135
00:06:19,280 --> 00:06:21,240
maker.
I'm, I'm kind of, you know, not
136
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,240
looking at them either because I
just want to want to look at
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00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,440
these.
Yeah, the, the, the pure kind of
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00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:27,920
undeveloped project sort of
suite, so.
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00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:29,920
Take it away.
What have we got on the list?
140
00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:36,560
You and me rocks resources, $235
million market cap DFS is is
141
00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,560
underway and FID targeted for
the for the end of the year.
142
00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:41,760
It's refractory it you know,
looks like they're they're going
143
00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,200
to use the Albion process.
But if it gets developed, you
144
00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,480
know to produce over 100,000 oz
per annum and it's, it's
145
00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,040
advanced enough that you can,
you can certainly see a pathway
146
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:51,760
for this thing reaching FID by
the end of the year.
147
00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:53,880
Yeah.
And it's like a lot of Oz good
148
00:06:53,880 --> 00:06:55,720
grade.
Like, you know, you trim a bit
149
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,280
on the, a little bit on the
refractory process, but it's
150
00:06:59,280 --> 00:07:01,080
it's.
Got the permit as well, right?
151
00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,680
Yeah, well, it's an existing
underground mine, yeah.
152
00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,040
Yeah, not a, not a given in this
in this day.
153
00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,400
So that's important.
Katanning, which is owned by
154
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,080
Osgold.
Osgold has a $200 million market
155
00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:15,440
cap at the moment.
The approvals process is is
156
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,440
still largely ahead of them.
But yeah, another of the
157
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,400
roadblocks historically has been
the holdout of our freehold
158
00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,360
property owners over the
project.
159
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,640
Unfortunately, it kind of got
got to the point where it's, you
160
00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,280
know, part of that negotiation
is going to the warden's court
161
00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,160
where, where there's a hearing
scheduled next month.
162
00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:35,520
But it also appears there are
other freehold land owners in
163
00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,520
addition not covered by that
claim, which also still require
164
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,120
an agreement.
So, yeah, there's, there's
165
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,080
unfortunately kind of the, the
timing to production as a result
166
00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:46,960
of these things that they still
have to work through is
167
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,920
uncertain because because of
these kind of factors.
168
00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:53,720
And, and that stops me getting
like super excited about about
169
00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,280
this project.
But, but if they can get there
170
00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,720
and, and get past those sort of
hurdles and, and there's a, you
171
00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,280
know, a decent endowment and A
and A, and a respectable
172
00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:02,960
production profile that can come
out of Catang.
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00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:07,960
Very much so.
Apollo Hill, this is Saturn and
174
00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:11,040
Saturn has $130 million market
cap right now.
175
00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,880
I, I, I'd just be rehashing what
what Headley said about Saturn
176
00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,280
in our podcast recently.
And this is a bit earlier stage
177
00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,080
than the others I've spoken
about.
178
00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:23,720
It's only got APEA out so far.
There's APFS due by December and
179
00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,440
then a DFS after that.
So best case scenario
180
00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,560
construction in 2027.
But they position it as 120,000
181
00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,120
oz per annum gold producer and
if the gold price kind of holds
182
00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:35,440
up, I do.
I do think this will get
183
00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,840
constructed so.
Be good to say hey hey bleach in
184
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,400
WI.
It's the sort of market that
185
00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,640
yeah, you you see all kinds of,
you know, things that things
186
00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,440
that are where unfamiliar kind
of come, come, you know, Albion,
187
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,600
for example, the hate bleach,
you know, these these sorts of
188
00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:51,040
things can happen in this sort
of market, I think.
189
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,360
It's well, because it's only
like half a Graham, isn't it?
190
00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:56,400
It did. 0.54 from memory, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
191
00:08:56,560 --> 00:08:59,040
Next step, tongue killer.
So this is Button gold.
192
00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,560
Button has $100 million market
cap right now, but it's been
193
00:09:01,560 --> 00:09:05,640
soaring over the last month.
We're talking SA and it's
194
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:10,240
another earlier stage of the lot
it it it's only got a scoping
195
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,880
study on dunk killer so far, but
but there's potential for
196
00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,560
respectable production profile
if the study numbers of, you
197
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,280
know, 130,000 oz per annum kind
of stack up.
198
00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,160
Again though, it's timeline to
production bit uncertain because
199
00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:25,040
it's a you know it's a bit
earlier stage, but financing
200
00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,200
would be would would certainly
be doable if you have a a
201
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,600
sustained gold bull market.
They're all back to WI.
202
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,560
Yeah, Mandela.
So this is Astral's, Astral's
203
00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:35,160
project, the, the Mandela gold
project.
204
00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,760
Astral's capped at $240 million.
And it's it's not the the
205
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,920
cheapest of the developers out
there, but it has, you know, a
206
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,440
lot of good things going for it.
It's it's in the right post code
207
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,760
being the gold fields.
It's, you know, this project can
208
00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,280
produce over 100,000 oz per
annum.
209
00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:52,200
It's got PFS on it due by June.
But yeah, I think the company
210
00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,600
will have plenty of kind of
corporate appeal as well, just
211
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,320
just given its location and all
of the different players in the
212
00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,440
vicinity and the type of gold
market we're in where if you
213
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,480
can, if you can get answers to A
to a mill in a in a shorter
214
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,840
period of time, that's, you
know, incredibly creative it it
215
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,200
can't go prices.
Interesting with that one here,
216
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,600
they did the just did the merger
with the Maximus because the big
217
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,280
constraint on them before was
the size of their tenement.
218
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,440
So they're effectively going to
have to mine, mine a pit and
219
00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,400
then use that pit to put waste
in for the next one because they
220
00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,560
didn't have enough area for
waste dumps.
221
00:10:24,560 --> 00:10:29,080
But now just securing that
tenement, it is, it's
222
00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,360
essentially sort of paid for
itself because they can now mine
223
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,000
everything a lot quicker without
having to do all this funky
224
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:37,560
trying to squeeze it in in the
tenements.
225
00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:38,960
Yeah, yeah.
No, it was a good play.
226
00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,640
Speaking of the corporate
appeal, Minari Dome by Antipa,
227
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,000
Antipa has a market cap of $326
million now.
228
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,520
And there's, there's plenty of
conjecture from plenty of angles
229
00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,280
that Greatland Gold will look to
acquire Antipa.
230
00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,360
And if gold prices hold up, even
though it's, you know, over a
231
00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:00,560
$300 million company, it'd still
be quite accretive to do so.
232
00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,160
However, there's, there's some
uncertainty on the timeline that
233
00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,440
could, could it, could it be
mined in, in, in what period of
234
00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:08,800
time?
And what's the gold price going
235
00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:10,600
to look like then?
But you know, if you could, you
236
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:14,000
could mine it tomorrow and pay,
pay it's market cap right now.
237
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,360
You do it.
So that's the, that's the
238
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:17,040
equation.
Great.
239
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,040
That's going to have to have to
weigh up, but at least there's a
240
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,040
logical mill for it to go to.
Very much so, yeah.
241
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,120
Go to the other end of the
state.
242
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,120
Ravensthorpe So Medallion Metals
Medallion has $120 million
243
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,680
market cap at the moment and
they, they, they, they now have
244
00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:35,280
a, they seem to have a low CapEx
pathway to production via Igos
245
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,960
Cosmic Boy plant where they've
got, you know, this exclusive
246
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:39,920
arrangement to, to, to pick that
up.
247
00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,400
This could be one of the more
advanced players of the bunch as
248
00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,440
a result, and FID could be
announced by the end of the
249
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,760
year.
It's not, yeah, you know, plus
250
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:54,800
100,000 oz per annum production
profile, but it 70,000 oz per
251
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,160
annum production could still be
formidable in this kind of gold
252
00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,880
price environment.
And that's the positioning that
253
00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:01,840
Medallion is taking.
Be interesting to see if they
254
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,120
get the gold rights, expiration
rights up at Forest Forest
255
00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,600
starting here as well, so they
could have a bit of a hub gown
256
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,080
on there.
Yep, right here.
257
00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:11,440
Do your neck of the woods, yeah.
Yeah.
258
00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,000
So I wanted to mention Horizon
Minerals.
259
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,640
They're, they're capped at $150
million and it's, it's a company
260
00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,240
I haven't spent a heap of time
looking at in the past, but I
261
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:22,360
think it's worthy of a fresh
look with new eyes.
262
00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,080
They've got a bunch of Oz oz
scattered across various
263
00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,000
tenements in and around
Kalgoorlie.
264
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:30,600
And, and what's changed in
recent history is they acquired
265
00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,920
Poseidon nickel.
Importantly, that has come with
266
00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:36,640
the Black Swan processing plant
and Horizon has GI engineering
267
00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,120
on the job to repurpose that for
gold production.
268
00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,080
It'll, it'll be an important
piece of infrastructure that
269
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,680
plant in a, in a pretty hot
district, especially if if gold
270
00:12:45,680 --> 00:12:48,720
prices hold up as plenty of
people are looking to monetise
271
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,120
their, you know, they're in the
money gold, gold, gold project.
272
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,760
And Horizon has plenty of gold
themselves that they can, you
273
00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:57,960
know, likely mine profitably in
this market.
274
00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,720
And if they have their own meal
to send it through, then that
275
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:02,440
then that just helps them
capture more of that margin.
276
00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,440
So I'm gonna keep a closer eye
on Horizon now.
277
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,200
Yeah.
That's Kalgoorlie through and
278
00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,720
through that company yes Now
this next one you know gold
279
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:12,480
prices at 5400 if this is
getting to mention it's.
280
00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,840
A bit of a left field one for
you guys.
281
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,520
Mount Todd, which is Vista Gold.
Yeah, I think there's like an
282
00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:21,600
adage, you know, it's a gold
bull market when Mount Todd gets
283
00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,240
a rebirth.
And then the NT project is
284
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,720
currently held by this North
American junior called Vista
285
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,720
Gold, which is capped at about
100 million U.S. dollars.
286
00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:33,800
Yeah, Mount Todd is like it's
the largest, hardest 0.9g per
287
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:38,320
tonne all body you'll find.
But talk about talk to you, you,
288
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:42,200
you this, this project must have
plenty of leverage in this this
289
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,920
kind of market.
So, yeah, just just one that
290
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,560
you've got to throw in the mix
in this sort of market.
291
00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,360
For you to watch there, yeah.
Very good, good bloody Chuck em
292
00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:53,800
all Chuck.
Make that bloody get down to
293
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:55,800
Comsec.
Put Trav's gold watch list.
294
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:57,120
Gold watch list, Chuck em all in
there.
295
00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:58,320
I don't think it should be
understated.
296
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,720
There's a lot of downside if
gold prices fall off here, but
297
00:14:00,880 --> 00:14:04,600
you know, people are people are
looking for yeah for like a the
298
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,080
names to watch if if the if the
bull market continues.
299
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,760
These are the ones that I'm
watching because of that option
300
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:13,840
like dynamic, yeah, yeah and and
and you know, hopefully nearest
301
00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,000
chain production that they have
to.
302
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:18,360
Very good.
Good segment, right JD?
303
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,120
Right.
Are we talking about a rare
304
00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,840
Earth's rebirth?
No.
305
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,000
Just Chuck a bit of Mayo on it.
Why not?
306
00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:27,880
I wish I could.
I'm not quite sure, Maddie.
307
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,480
I think there's quite a bit of
nuance to this story given the
308
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:33,840
the trade war dynamics.
You get pretty distorted
309
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,080
markets.
You get high prices for the same
310
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,120
commodity in one part of the
world versus the other.
311
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:42,400
But you know, look at the stock
price of MP materials.
312
00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:47,080
It it peeled off 12% on it's
last trading day before the
313
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,200
before the Easter holidays and
off over 20% in space for a
314
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,400
couple days.
You know, you soon a bit further
315
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:58,040
and there'd been a real run up
there, but this is all a fallout
316
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,520
of the the trade war and and the
tariffs and there's quite a bit
317
00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,480
going on here.
So based on those stock
318
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,520
movements, we're not looking
like a rebirth.
319
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,960
I well for for MP materials, I,
I don't think so.
320
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,000
I do think there's opportunity
for for some players in the
321
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:16,080
market, but this is the most
opaque market we speak about.
322
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,120
It has been flooded with Chinese
supplies.
323
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,600
So I'm not going to come here
and and profess that I can just
324
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,920
sort of see the future with it
because it's as as muddy as the
325
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:27,360
waters sort of get.
So what's the what's the ghost
326
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,400
that's there?
So when we spoke about it last
327
00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:34,160
week, I mentioned that MP
Materials sends about 2/3 if you
328
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:38,000
go off last year of their
concentrate to China and the
329
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:42,280
rest of that they try and turn
into NDPR themselves.
330
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,080
Now importantly, that's all of
their profitability pretty much
331
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,800
because the product that they
turn into NDPR, they're still
332
00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,440
ramping that up and they can't
do it profitably yet.
333
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,760
So that is loss making
essentially.
334
00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,240
And you're talking about a
company that does about 45,000
335
00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:05,200
tons of REO rare earth oxide
32,000 last year was sent to
336
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,200
Shanghai, their partner in
China, who's also one of their
337
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:11,320
biggest shareholders.
And like I said that the rest is
338
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,080
consumed.
This ratio is coming down.
339
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:16,480
So they're going to be
internally consuming more as
340
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,680
they ramp up NDPR production.
But exports have come to a
341
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:25,280
pretty abrupt halt over the
weekend because of these 100%
342
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,800
plus tariffs, meaning it's not
economic to do so.
343
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,000
So in MP materials wording, they
say selling rare earth
344
00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:37,800
concentrate to China under 125%
tariff regime is neither
345
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,600
commercially rational.
Or.
346
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,960
Nor aligned with America's
national interest and they sort
347
00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:47,800
of added that their California
refinery is processing now about
348
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:52,360
half so no longer just one third
that's going up like I said of
349
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,360
their product into materials
that they're selling ex China,
350
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,080
so Korea, Japan and these sorts
of countries now they also added
351
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,400
that they they want to step up
oxide production as well as
352
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,560
getting into separation of
heavies as well as bringing
353
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:09,839
magnet production.
And yeah, suffice to say none of
354
00:17:09,839 --> 00:17:11,359
these are easy things to
achieve.
355
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:12,400
What?
Do you what do you think of the
356
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:16,680
spin?
I think a lot of people are
357
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:19,359
reading through it.
I think this is a massive blow
358
00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:22,520
for the company.
No matter how they can try and
359
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:27,079
spin it like this puts them in a
very tough position because it
360
00:17:27,079 --> 00:17:28,880
was all of their profitability,
right.
361
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,320
So, you know, you can, you can
look at the earnings of the
362
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,560
company and they they fluctuated
with the run up that we saw 2122
363
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,800
and they they earned a bit of
money, but they haven't been
364
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,000
earning money in recent times
given that the weak pricing and
365
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,880
the revenue that was coming in
the door has just been pretty
366
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,960
much wiped.
So I'm not buying the the
367
00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:49,160
national interest spin.
This was a big part of the
368
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,080
narrative for MP materials that
they are going to be the the
369
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,960
national champion.
But you know, self-interest
370
00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,280
triumphs, all right, And they,
I'm sure they're very patriotic
371
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,400
people, but that's not at the
expense of that the company
372
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:06,440
functioning properly.
So if you want to paint a pretty
373
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:08,520
picture like the company's tried
to do, they are saying they're
374
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,360
going to be ex China and they're
going to be more independent
375
00:18:11,360 --> 00:18:13,640
earlier than they would have
otherwise been.
376
00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,520
But you know, if you're going to
be a bit bearish about it, their
377
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,840
profitability is gone.
There's a lot of pressure on
378
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,120
ramping up NDPI production,
magnet production and all these
379
00:18:22,120 --> 00:18:25,480
other parts of the supply chain.
And they're a company that has
380
00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:30,200
US 280 million in cash and US
$900 million in debt.
381
00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:34,960
So I mean that's not coming to
tomorrow, but it does put
382
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:38,600
pressure on as we as we know.
So if you look at what they did
383
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:43,680
last year, 1.3000 tons of NDPR
production, they want to scale
384
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:49,440
that up to 6000 tons and less
than 10% of that probably is
385
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,520
going to be used in their magnet
facility when they can get that
386
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,680
up and running.
So I'm sure there's a lot of
387
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,840
questions they're going to be
trying to answer internally and
388
00:18:58,120 --> 00:19:01,560
tell the tell the market.
And I sort of I thought I'd just
389
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,360
run through a couple of them
that kind of come to mind,
390
00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:06,240
right.
So curious mate, will MP
391
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:10,000
materials be able to consume
100% of their mine production?
392
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,520
IE do they even have capacity to
try and turn that into NDPR?
393
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,080
The answer is pretty much no,
it's not.
394
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,000
Because you're saying the
midstream they're doing 50% of
395
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,680
their current production, but
they're looking to four times
396
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,920
that production.
Yeah, they, they wanted to ramp
397
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,960
that up, but at the moment and
for the foreseeable future, they
398
00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:29,840
they don't have anywhere to to
put all that REO.
399
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,960
So they're just going to have to
stockpile it that, you know, you
400
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,600
see the inventory on the the
balance sheet tick up, but it's
401
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:40,000
money not coming in the door.
And it is not easy to find a
402
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,640
buyer of rare earth oxide that
isn't in China.
403
00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,720
So it's not an easy question to
answer for the company, right.
404
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,000
And then you get the the point.
What do they even do with the
405
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,440
NPNPPR when they produce it,
right?
406
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,320
Because we know Japan's pretty
much maxed out with, with Linus
407
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,160
and a lot of stuff ends up in,
in China.
408
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:02,320
It's it's very convoluted, but.
There is no demand in America
409
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,360
for the NDPR or not enough
demand for what they going to
410
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,400
produce.
So another big unanswered
411
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,960
question.
You've got more unanswered
412
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,760
questions like can U.S.
companies in any sort of shape
413
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:18,760
or form, whether that be magnet
demand, NDPR demand scale up
414
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:22,560
quick enough in line with what
NP materials want to do?
415
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,160
They're talking about this
completely ex China supply
416
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,320
chamber that is not going to
happen overnight.
417
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,040
That's going to take a while to
to come into effect.
418
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,880
And you know, as you'd expect,
MP materials tries to answer
419
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,200
these questions.
They say in their announcement
420
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,600
that they've got manufacturers,
manufacturers rather reaching
421
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,800
out saying, you know, we've got
demand for, for whatever you
422
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,240
want to produce, whether that's
the, you know, halfway through
423
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,360
the chain or further down the
chain.
424
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,440
That is a positive, right?
But no contract is signed like
425
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:53,680
that.
That's not money coming in the
426
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,080
door.
Can I throw in company just
427
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:58,400
something into the mix there?
And that's yeah, one of the
428
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,000
rumours we heard sometime last
year and it's really talking
429
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,080
about the Australian government.
But I wouldn't be surprised if
430
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,720
it was like, yeah, there were
members of a similar thing
431
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:06,800
overseas and all that sort of
stuff.
432
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:12,080
But it was that that the the
government would would sign the
433
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,680
offtake like that could sign,
you know, full price longevity
434
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,680
at at at X price.
And that would that would
435
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,320
underwrite that and the
independent supply chain and
436
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,840
also in some instances
development of certain projects
437
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,360
which which otherwise you
couldn't get an off take 4.
438
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,280
Absolutely.
I think if you're buying MP
439
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,960
materials.
You're counting on that.
440
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,520
You're kind of counting on that
like this is trading way, you
441
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,680
know, over its its earnings or
anything like that.
442
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,760
It's at a well after peeling off
probably a 60% run this year
443
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:42,640
alone.
You know, compare that to the
444
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,040
rest of the market.
That's, that's pretty outrageous
445
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,560
for a company that's earnings
have been massively hit, right?
446
00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:50,400
Absolutely.
That, that is a super valid
447
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:54,160
point to make.
And I'll sort of add to it that
448
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:55,720
there's, there's a lot of nuance
to this.
449
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,800
So they talk about magnet
production.
450
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,280
Magnets come in all different
shapes and sizes like magnets
451
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,040
for they, they have a contract
with GM to produce a magnet.
452
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,760
That is from what I understand,
one of the easier quote UN quote
453
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,080
magnets to produce magnets for
defence and these sort of other
454
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,720
high tech applications.
Very difficult and difficult
455
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,880
means more CapEx needs to be
spent to learn how to do it.
456
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,720
Also, their mountain pass
project is sort of more slanted
457
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,400
towards the light rare earths as
opposed to the heavies.
458
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,800
Where do they kind of get the,
the feedstock that they might
459
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,280
need?
Who knows, maybe there's maybe
460
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,600
there's a deal to be done in
this sort of capacity given the
461
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,440
value of their, their paper as
well.
462
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,440
The ionic clay producers, we all
saw them jump up massively last
463
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,160
week.
A lot of them have peeled back a
464
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,840
little bit, but these get thrown
up because they're generally
465
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,480
easier to to extract the the
heavies from.
466
00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,080
MPs say they have enough heavies
for the contracts they have at
467
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:52,320
hand, but maybe they want to
expand.
468
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,560
Maybe they want to do a bit
more, add, add new magnet and
469
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,280
different types of magnet supply
down the line.
470
00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,640
So maybe they use their paper
for a couple of these kind of
471
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,160
beaten up projects.
Who kind of knows?
472
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:07,920
I just sort of think all this to
say is that the road to being a
473
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,680
national champion in the USMP
materials is perhaps not as
474
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,200
simple as everyone makes it out
to be.
475
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,760
Yet you still have to be able to
execute on it.
476
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,360
And it's not something that the
US in any shape or form has
477
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,840
executed on in any kind of
capacity.
478
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,640
And it becomes increasingly
tougher if you had all your
479
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,880
revenue cut.
You need to just hold your hand
480
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:28,160
out to the government a bit
more.
481
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:32,080
And it's interesting to see that
the the CEO sold over 50 million
482
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,720
U.S. dollars worth of stock in
the last month alone.
483
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:38,280
I think, you know, actions
sometimes speak louder than
484
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:39,520
words.
And, you know, maybe they were
485
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,760
were reasons.
No, nothing wrong with someone
486
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,400
just taking a few chips off the
table, but yeah.
487
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,640
How much has he got left?
A substantial amount.
488
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:52,760
They sort of spun this company
together a bit over five years
489
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,040
ago now.
So, you know, yeah.
490
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,520
And, and I also think it's worth
keeping in mind that I saw last
491
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,840
week almost every single rarest
producer on my watch list
492
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,800
drawing out junior, chucking up
an announcement about what's
493
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,360
going on.
So just remember, like the old
494
00:24:08,360 --> 00:24:10,880
adages like Greater King and,
you know, jurisdiction, all
495
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,720
these things matter because
there are a lot of juniors out
496
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,960
there trying to trying to milk
it a bit at the moment.
497
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,080
And yeah, you need to really go
through the the checklist of
498
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:20,920
what what passed must start at
this point.
499
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,240
Yeah, yeah, very good.
Bloody.
500
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,040
We chatted about all this stuff
with our Sammy Berridge
501
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,800
interview, which will be out
later this week, about these
502
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,680
pending bloody commodities.
Which one's going to go first?
503
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,200
Rare earths definitely in that
basket.
504
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:38,480
It's an interesting one, right?
Super interesting.
505
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,080
Very much right.
Let's do a bit of a we'll do it
506
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:45,480
around the grounds.
It's like a bloody visual, A
507
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,760
video director special.
What have you got for us?
508
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:48,480
What?
Have you Thursday?
509
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,440
Well, the the first thing that
really caught my attention end
510
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,760
of last week was this LinkedIn
post.
511
00:24:57,120 --> 00:24:59,440
Have a look at Adam Wilson, the
action figure.
512
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,200
Not just the action figure from
KCI, it's the title day on the
513
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,680
bottom.
It's taken off.
514
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,400
Just call KCA.
It is even KCA are even using
515
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,200
it.
So there is just going to be a
516
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,040
money of mine legacy with KCA
forever because obviously
517
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,120
they've thought they'll probably
on the phone to a customer
518
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,280
searching for people, searching
for equipment, searching for
519
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,840
mining expertise, which KCA is
the one stop shop for.
520
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,240
I'm just so stoked that we've
got this to take off.
521
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,840
Isn't that brilliant?
Just call KCA.
522
00:25:33,360 --> 00:25:34,600
I'm not sure.
I think you're out there,
523
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,120
Maddie.
And you can get everything from
524
00:25:37,120 --> 00:25:40,480
KCA mostly, mostly kit and
people, but you can also get
525
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:41,760
these action figures.
You can get that.
526
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,800
Why not take an Adam Wilson
action figure?
527
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,760
But it's like that thing.
It's like it's him.
528
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:50,120
The it's not just call Adam,
it's just call KCA because it's
529
00:25:50,120 --> 00:25:53,520
the team that he's built to
deliver you, the people, the
530
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,760
machinery and whatever you want.
Problem solvers.
531
00:25:56,760 --> 00:26:01,280
Just call kca.
Anyway, back back to more not as
532
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:03,920
good mining stories as KCI, what
do you got?
533
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,640
But we'll get on it.
So de Grey will be into Northern
534
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,960
Star.
It's official scheme meeting
535
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,080
results.
Scheme meeting votes happened.
536
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:18,920
99.64% voted yes for those that
voted.
537
00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:22,320
Actually tuned into that webinar
and it was pretty boring, must
538
00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:25,200
admit.
Yeah, it's like the whole deal's
539
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:28,320
just been boring, really.
It's like no one interloped, no
540
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,520
one liked.
Good for Northern Star, I guess.
541
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,480
But so yeah, that's final.
They'll have the final.
542
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,240
What do they have a final court
hearing, don't they?
543
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,480
That's all.
That's all straightforward.
544
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,560
Yeah, anyway, 5th of
implementation, 5th of May and
545
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:47,880
Degraw will be delisted on the
6th of May.
546
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:52,240
So congratulations to all people
involved in that company and
547
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,160
getting a pretty bloody big
outcome for shareholders.
548
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,840
What a bloody, what a journey.
So now she's Northern Stars
549
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,160
Problem all.
Right Next up.
550
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:07,280
Bellevue so near term hedge book
closeout confirmed so it's.
551
00:27:07,360 --> 00:27:09,680
Just sort of flagged wasn't.
It yeah, but you can you can
552
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:14,320
actually see that there's about
about 5000 oz left in December.
553
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,440
So I think we everyone, it's
very small amount of their
554
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,600
production.
So they're pretty bloody close
555
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:24,240
to fully unhedged for the next
the remainder of this calendar
556
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,040
year. 5000 ounces to deliver in
December.
557
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,520
Even even the difference between
when they came out with the
558
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,240
announcement and when they
managed to do it would have cost
559
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,080
them a few 1,000,000 bucks.
Here's the gold price.
560
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:36,240
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah.
561
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:40,400
I think it's, I think I saw a
note that cost them 5000 oz or
562
00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:43,880
something in changing gold price
with the hedge book and the the
563
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,960
liability.
So you've seen that actually
564
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,560
creeped up back up.
So they raised at $0.85.
565
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,160
Remember they actually crept
back up to a bit over a buck,
566
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,040
but they've pulled back today 93
cents.
567
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,120
They said that a bit of an
underperformer.
568
00:27:57,120 --> 00:28:01,840
So this next quarter is going to
be, if they don't hit this 40 to
569
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:07,200
45 that they've said it's going
to be, should be bloody mayhem.
570
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:08,480
So.
Work cut out for them.
571
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,360
Type that high grade comes along
Parenti.
572
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:18,760
So they've So was it AUMS
parenti?
573
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,360
Baminko.
Yeah, but I think it was over
574
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:23,120
there.
So it was probably AUMS, African
575
00:28:23,120 --> 00:28:26,040
Underground Mining Services.
They had the contract over at
576
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:31,480
Comic Con in Botswana, but it
was a five year contract and it
577
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,800
looks like they unfortunately
haven't been able to get it
578
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:35,880
extended.
I think they extended it last
579
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,440
year for a confirmed the
extension for a year last year,
580
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:43,400
but it will be finishing up 30th
of June 2025.
581
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,320
Chinese company going owner,
operator.
582
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,440
That's a big surprise.
That's the one though that'd be
583
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,960
yeah, it's a bit of float there
deep yellow quarterly out as we
584
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,880
haven't talked about it that so
they've deferred their FID for
585
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:04,040
the two mass project in Namibia
citing you the sufficient
586
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,520
uranium price incentivization
for a Greenfield development
587
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,880
project.
So it's, it's just, I find this
588
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:16,680
very interesting purely because
a 30 year mine life, it's going
589
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:20,400
to take a, it's going to be
three £3.6 million producer.
590
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,520
Not like a huge, huge, but I'm
just, I'm like, what does it
591
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,640
say?
Like what does it say about the,
592
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,400
the uranium outlook versus the
project outlook?
593
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,360
Because it's like, OK, 30 year
mine life, if you're going to
594
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,040
bloody be gone that long, you're
going to, there's going to be
595
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:39,120
nibs and flows in the, in the
cycle.
596
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,080
Why wouldn't you commit to
developing it now?
597
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,800
And the term price is what,
$81.00?
598
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,840
The, you know, the, the DFS
costing was US 75.
599
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,440
We're above that.
Just interested to see why
600
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,760
they're not going to progress
such a long life project.
601
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,400
I'm thinking are they looking
for a Chinese company to buy it
602
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:04,000
off them so they don't have to,
which makes sense in Namibia,
603
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,320
looking at the cash they've got,
they've got 227,000,000, but as
604
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:14,240
you can see here for initial
CapEx is US 470, so about 750
605
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,680
Aussie circa.
It's like are they?
606
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,200
Do they want the price to run so
they can raise a shit load more
607
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,520
capital to equity fund it?
Which is probably what I'm
608
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,800
leaning to.
Yeah, that makes sense too.
609
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,280
Like, I know, I know, John
Borschel says it's fully equity
610
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,080
funded already, but in reality,
you're going to raise a bit more
611
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,280
money on FID and you want to
minimize dilution when you do
612
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:35,880
that.
Yeah.
613
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,520
And so I think announcing FID
now it's they don't want to take
614
00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,320
bloody half a billion in debt, I
wouldn't imagine.
615
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:48,800
So I don't do it and look the
project may be at US 8250, it's
616
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:55,280
only a 19% IRR like it's pretty
it, it needs projects like this,
617
00:30:55,280 --> 00:31:00,760
these low grade open pits in
these jurisdictions I think need
618
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:05,760
the big prices to really make it
feasible so.
619
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,440
Especially if you're on the
debt, you need an offtake and
620
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,440
then.
Yeah, because that that's a, you
621
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:15,280
know, four year payback for all
that at these deck prices, which
622
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:19,520
we know are never true.
So I'll be Yeah, I think unless
623
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,360
the uranium price goes into the
hundreds, I don't see projects
624
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,000
like this potentially being
developed by these people unless
625
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,040
China buys it off them.
So anyway, we'll wait and see
626
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,640
Santana go across bloody because
of Anzac Day coming up.
627
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,080
So we're going to talk about the
New Zealand's New Zealand
628
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,280
operations a bit.
They put out a some new open pit
629
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:46,520
stages for their Ras project.
Looks like pretty bloody Thistle
630
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:51,800
bloody overview pretty much
saying they've dropped a shit
631
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,920
load of waste off a new new
excavation strategy.
632
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:59,040
It looks to pretty much drop the
amount of waste they have to pre
633
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,560
strip to get to 1st off.
So pretty pretty much gone from
634
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:06,960
15,000,000 BCM down to 7.9.
So and you could, because you
635
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,480
can see these stages here, you
look at the volume at the start
636
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,960
compared to the waste volume for
that stage.
637
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,320
So extremely high strip ratio at
the start because you can see
638
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,840
you've got to essentially take
out a bloody mountain to get
639
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:21,840
down to the ore.
But you can look at once you get
640
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,320
down to those later stages,
there's a lot, lot lower strip
641
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,280
ratio to deal with.
And it's just got that real that
642
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,920
Karla window look about it in
the ore body like that, that
643
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,640
shallow dipping very, very
similar layout.
644
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,880
I'm not can't comment on the
continuity of it compared to
645
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,280
Karla window.
But look at it, look at it, the
646
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,520
resource grades, like once you
get to stages four and five, you
647
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,040
it's like 3 1/2 gram dirt in an
open pit.
648
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,440
So that's, that's bloody
underground dirt these days.
649
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,200
High grade underground.
So yeah, 11 to watch.
650
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,440
New study on the way.
Yeah, Ding Ding, Ding on the
651
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,880
next one for U2 WA 1 hasn't been
hasn't been talked about much
652
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:08,840
thought we'd just just say good
day to it.
653
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,480
Good old WA one, they put out
some they're, they're still
654
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,680
drilling, still got a couple of
rigs on site, one sort of doing
655
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:21,280
the resource in filling sort of
things than others doing like a
656
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,040
lot of stuff for the PFS, like
probably a bit of water drilling
657
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:31,080
and all that sort of stuff.
So pretty amazing to look at
658
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,960
this, the size of the deposit,
what is it, 200 million tonne or
659
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,080
something.
The joys of having shallow
660
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:41,200
bloody holes and not having to
drill deep. 55,000 meters of
661
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:44,760
drilling to find that whole
resource to date, which is
662
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,040
pretty phenomenal.
They they, they never, they
663
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,280
never really raised a huge
amount of money when you think
664
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:50,640
about it.
They always the cap raise is
665
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,800
always pretty pretty small size
compared to what the market.
666
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,200
Was yeah, hence why the you know
it's got a share price that is
667
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,160
11 like in the double digits
because it doesn't got shit
668
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,160
loads of shares on issue and the
the founders rightfully so I
669
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,640
have a good lick of stock.
So, yeah, well, I guess we're
670
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:11,199
waiting on, I think they're
going to do a resource update by
671
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:12,920
late this quarter.
Yeah.
672
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,440
And then we'll be waiting on
some sort of some sort of study.
673
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:21,800
But that study is going to be a
that's a big study.
674
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:27,679
Like that is a lot of scenarios
to plot out for something that's
675
00:34:27,679 --> 00:34:31,080
never been done in Australia.
So it's like they've especially
676
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,400
these these poor bastards when
they outside niobium, they're
677
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,719
like, holy shit, we're going to
learn about this commodity.
678
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:41,080
They come from probably a 0
based but yeah, but and now
679
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:42,560
doing a study on it.
So it's.
680
00:34:43,159 --> 00:34:45,840
Thing to watch for with that
study to you it's just how is a
681
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,040
very high grade kind of subset
of that resource which yeah the
682
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,400
beauty of when you have a very
high grade portion of of any
683
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,080
resource is what what that means
for your financing like you you
684
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:59,800
can get earlier cash flows and
reduces your kind of yeah yeah
685
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:01,800
total spend you.
Know what I mean?
686
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:05,640
It's it's just been forgotten
about in terms of is one of the
687
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:09,000
Aussie billionaires going to
step in and have a look at this
688
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:13,960
or a big major?
Yeah, it's it appears not at the
689
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,600
moment, but we'll see what
happens once the I guess the
690
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,720
study comes out if that's what
they're waiting on.
691
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,040
But it's definitely drift back
and doesn't have not talked
692
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:26,040
about at the moment.
So Ding Allegc, you're
693
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,840
diversified into lithium.
Good on you.
694
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:32,960
Diversified counter cyclical
play from ALLEGC on Pilgrim
695
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,800
Minerals.
Their quarterly coming out the
696
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,120
other way you can see.
PLS now Maddie.
697
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:39,920
Oh, it's just PLS isn't.
It.
698
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,440
Yeah, yeah.
Because we, you know, you go as
699
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:42,840
well.
Because we've got, we've got
700
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:47,120
Brazil, we've got the Pascal J,
we're in a international lithium
701
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:48,560
company.
They deal with IGO.
702
00:35:48,720 --> 00:35:52,760
So everyone always says, right,
is Pilbara making money or not
703
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,360
in this lithium price
environment?
704
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,480
So it looks like they spent
about 100 mil on CapEx to
705
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,640
finalize the the P-1000, which
is going to be essentially
706
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,600
operate essentially the P-1000
expansion happened.
707
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:10,400
They've put the their the
Ningaju plant on care of
708
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:14,040
maintenance, which has dropped
the site back to AP850 operating
709
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,200
model.
So they sounds like they
710
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:20,120
invested 100 odd mil in CapEx,
went back about 100 mil.
711
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,280
It said their opera that
operational cash flow was about
712
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:28,080
30 mil and I think the all in
sustaining was about 14 mil
713
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,560
profits.
So it's like pretty bloody close
714
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:33,320
to break even.
So you can see the tonnages and
715
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,440
the revenue were down for the
month to reflect the Ningaju
716
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,840
plant going on care and
maintenance look.
717
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,400
At the revenue right, like 1.
150 million do.
718
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:43,840
You remember?
Remember when we were talking
719
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,080
about it?
That used to be about 20% of
720
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,200
their profit, yeah.
Amazing.
721
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:53,880
So on that number they trade it
like a 7 or 8 times revenue.
722
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,520
Yeah, yeah.
And what are they about four $5
723
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,600
billion company now?
4.4 when I last looked and.
724
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:02,840
And a quarter of it's in cash.
1.1 yeah.
725
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:05,400
Yeah.
So obviously had the impacts of
726
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:09,520
Tropical Cyclone Zelia as well
and then obviously the ramp up
727
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:13,200
of their pay 1000 expansion.
So it sounds like the the CapEx
728
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:17,000
has been sort of most of it has
been spent for that.
729
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:18,720
Now they're going to be
optimizing.
730
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:23,240
So it appears now I reckon even
at these prices like you look at
731
00:37:23,240 --> 00:37:29,480
their realized price for the 5.3
was 747 US probably helped along
732
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,600
bit along by the exchange rate.
So that was up.
733
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,000
It appears once I optimize and
not spending CapEx, there
734
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,800
probably will be cash flow
positive a little bit.
735
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:43,880
So hopefully you'd assume based
on the amount of the lower tons
736
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:48,320
they got.
So yes, we will wait and see The
737
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:52,680
the, the, what do you call them?
The just the, the bloody
738
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:56,280
Australian lithium workhorse.
That's great bushes, really.
739
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:57,280
But.
Yeah.
740
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,000
Anyway, they'll have a decision
to make up in Korea as well.
741
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,800
Sooner or later.
They want to take up that that
742
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,800
estate to take them up to 30%,
yeah.
743
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:10,360
And and on comments about the
Latin as well, it sounds like
744
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,160
they're not.
It says they're going to put out
745
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:17,080
a study optimization June
quarter 2026.
746
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,880
So you can see probably as we
initially talked about with that
747
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,240
deal, it's like they pretty much
got four years though they'll
748
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,400
probably just push the whole
thing out, which appears what
749
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,320
they're going to do as you would
in this environment.
750
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:31,120
So it doesn't look like
anything's going to be
751
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,560
progressing over there in the in
the short term.
752
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:39,120
So black cap, first gold bloody
delivered to him by MMS.
753
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:43,800
Don't you, don't you mind first
gold, First Lakewood gold?
754
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,840
They're in the middle.
From Calais so and you you see
755
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:53,160
when they're talking about
better grade and recoveries all
756
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,720
above expectations sure helps
when you're processing it
757
00:38:56,720 --> 00:38:59,440
yourself yeah so you can't blame
anyone else.
758
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:04,720
So they're 60,000 tonne Marie
all hold on 1st April.
759
00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:09,840
So they got about 2700 ounces of
production and they bloody
760
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:16,040
poured 750 oz so Rachi gold is
flying out of my room right
761
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,320
Gorilla Jesus Christ, this
bloody thing is just going off
762
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:21,240
its head.
They put out a gorilla girl put
763
00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:23,720
out a maiden mineral resource
for Vivian.
764
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,000
So I remember, I'm pretty sure
Amelius, they got this offer.
765
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,040
Amelius for not bloody much.
Peanuts.
766
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:34,480
Yeah, and so they put out a
maiden resource for Vivian,
767
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:41,440
278,000 oz at 4.1g.
So also once I checked the
768
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,400
light, they put some drill heads
out from Lakeview.
769
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,280
That's part of the comet valve
project and just bloody it's 52
770
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:52,600
1/2 cents even after raising a
good chunk of cash previously,
771
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:59,360
like what is it, 300 mil market
cap, Now it's just Genesis
772
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,560
signs.
What, 7.37% of it?
773
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:05,600
And it's they're obviously
putting all the value in the
774
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:07,800
drill bit.
I'm just.
775
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:11,800
Say 300 mil, That's right.
So that's more that's yeah, a
776
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,440
bigger market cap than any of
the advanced gold developers I
777
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:15,640
mentioned at the top of the
show.
778
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:16,760
That's very interesting.
Well.
779
00:40:17,240 --> 00:40:20,320
I mean, EUR Artleys just
initiated coverage on them and
780
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:25,080
put a a graph up of EV to
resource answer.
781
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,560
It's like top of the second to
Spartan effectively.
782
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,800
They're obviously going to be
growing those resources, but
783
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,680
it's just got that.
But it's interesting, you know,
784
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,080
we talk about like you don't you
want competitive tension and
785
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,240
everything like, you know,
Genesis have effectively got
786
00:40:39,240 --> 00:40:41,520
their foot on it.
Yeah, in a way, yeah.
787
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,280
But it's like.
This is just a market dialling.
788
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,480
And all the bloody people there
now work for Genesis and Buddy.
789
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,880
I'll be interested to see what
the what the what the outcome
790
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,760
will be if it's like are they
going to build these projects up
791
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,920
individually like 'cause my wary
that they pulled out of Genesis
792
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,240
will and which is right next to
or a band or are they going to
793
00:41:03,240 --> 00:41:06,040
try to dress that up so
horribanda takes it or is it all
794
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,720
of this stuff going to be I
think I've talked about it.
795
00:41:08,720 --> 00:41:12,400
I just got a lot the exploration
vehicle for Genesis because
796
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,760
Genesis have made money out of
the stock.
797
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,680
Are they going to, is it all
going to be then just all
798
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,480
purchase agreements back into
Genesis in the future?
799
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,280
Because I can't say there's no
other company that's going to go
800
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:28,200
take a swing at them with
Genesis being a 7% shareholder.
801
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,120
Maybe they would, maybe they'll
keep it low.
802
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,000
So it's not too much of A
deterrent, but it's obviously
803
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:37,560
just all drill bit value at the
moment.
804
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:41,800
So yeah, I don't know, it's just
it could, it could just go so
805
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,880
many different ways.
Like Vivian, for instance, could
806
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:48,480
be your some of your closest
mills to that is that there's
807
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,640
obviously Agnew and Bellevue,
but there's always also Darla
808
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,440
and King of the Hills, which is
red 5.
809
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:59,160
So we'll, oh, there's so many.
I'll need one of those mind maps
810
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,280
of how many different ways this
could go.
811
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,840
So there's obviously a goal
insight holder.
812
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,040
Shame.
No, I'm not sure.
813
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:12,160
So sure I'd say insight, right.
This whole management teams MO
814
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,600
is just drill.
Yeah, just real.
815
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:17,160
And you want a?
Liquidity outcome for you, for
816
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:19,800
those big holders.
You do, but yeah, absolutely.
817
00:42:19,800 --> 00:42:22,400
But they've sort of learnt the
lesson that prolonging that and
818
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:25,520
teasing it out has has netted
them a fair bit more fruit.
819
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:29,680
So wouldn't be surprised to see
them sort of keep adding adding
820
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,080
value through the the drill bit
for as long as possible.
821
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:35,640
But but if imagine if gold pulls
off like you, you said like
822
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,240
which who knows if it's going to
happen.
823
00:42:37,240 --> 00:42:39,800
Look at like their Wildcat
journey, like it went up.
824
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,560
Now it's back down.
It's so that without the sort of
825
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,720
event they're still left with
the shares.
826
00:42:45,720 --> 00:42:50,240
So they want they would want an
outcome to realize the cash.
827
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:52,720
I would assume so.
Very nice.
828
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,600
It's, it's, it's tricky to
realize the liquidity event when
829
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:58,760
you're priced kind of for
perfection as well.
830
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,640
You know, like, like people
aren't willingly going to pay
831
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,080
overs for for something just
because it's got a A-Team
832
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,280
attached to it.
Maybe, maybe retail will, but a
833
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:07,280
corporate won't.
Yeah.
834
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:11,760
Yeah, yeah, Once I get out of
this drill baby drill phase,
835
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:15,120
I'll be just interested to see
because there's there's a mining
836
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,240
story attached to each of these
projects that could go to either
837
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:22,400
Genesis or other companies like
all their Cometvale stuff
838
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:25,120
straight up the road to Leonora.
Perfect spot for it.
839
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,400
What that'll look like, I don't
know.
840
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,320
I can't see Genesis buying the
assets back.
841
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,880
I think they'll just operate
independently.
842
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:37,560
Not sure.
So yeah, bloody.
843
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:42,080
Anything else, Maddie?
Phoenix didn't action the
844
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,720
matching right for the CSR
takeover.
845
00:43:44,720 --> 00:43:48,120
So that's it in the robe.
What is it?
846
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,880
Robe River.
Robe River joint venture.
847
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,320
Yeah, so.
As we sort of suspected.
848
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:55,000
It yeah, so it hasn't really
affected Phoenix's share price
849
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:56,720
still ticking along.
So I'm sure they'll be looking
850
00:43:56,720 --> 00:43:59,080
to do another deal in the
future.
851
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:04,320
So they got close. 75 buckaroos
heading to CZR.
852
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:06,880
Phoenix netted a bit of cash for
the travel.
853
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:07,960
What was the break fee?
Well, it.
854
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,880
Wasn't just a break fee, but
they ended up accumulating 15%,
855
00:44:12,240 --> 00:44:17,480
yeah.
That's right, Strickland Z Gin
856
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,040
taken a stake in Strickland.
So $5,000,000 placement to Z Gin
857
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,040
now 2.4% holder in Strickland.
All about Serbia.
858
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:30,200
Our friends from China, yeah.
Do you see it there that the
859
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,400
reaction to, to to Trev's piece
on on Z Gin?
860
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:36,080
People thought you were the the
proxy for the CCP.
861
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:40,800
Oh Jesus, that was it it.
It couldn't have been any less
862
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,880
about Z Gin, the minor.
It was ageing the stock
863
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,400
performance like it was very
simple the way you.
864
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:52,600
Articulated I, I, I think
there's, yeah, a cohort of
865
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,360
people that are pretty
frustrated by, by seaging from a
866
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:59,240
certain stock and that cohort of
people can't be reasoned with.
867
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,360
So, but they're frustrated, you
know, I empathise with their
868
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:03,720
frustration.
Yeah, yeah.
869
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:07,040
But yeah, no, it wasn't.
It wasn't a bloody yes.
870
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,320
Then you're getting questioned
about how much money do you take
871
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,480
off?
Oh God.
872
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:14,520
CCP have not given us money,
yes.
873
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,320
Yeah, strictly.
So they're be interested to see
874
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:21,840
what happens with their oxide
stuff.
875
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:26,240
So this looks they're the Zijin
you would assume solely focused
876
00:45:26,240 --> 00:45:29,760
on that Serbian asset still got
their oxide stuff up in the
877
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,480
handle.
Is that going to get flicked out
878
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:37,360
to someone else in the District,
Northern Star, or maybe someone
879
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,840
a bit further South?
Who knows, maybe they flick the
880
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:43,440
Serbian asset out and they keep
going.
881
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,360
Maybe cool could could go either
way JD.
882
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,360
Could go either way.
Literary thinking.
883
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,520
Right there we go, that's
everyone's up to date, including
884
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:53,280
myself.
It starts right.
885
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:54,680
Thanks all the partners as
always.
886
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:56,880
Get your JRX tickets like I
have.
887
00:45:57,080 --> 00:46:00,760
May 2020 second in Brisbane, the
centre of tech and innovation
888
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:04,800
Discount card in the show notes.
Bloody use it makes us look
889
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,960
good.
Our great friends at Mineral
890
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:11,320
Mining Services, Grounded Sandy
grounds, Port CR Insurance, K
891
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:17,560
Drill, WA Waterfalls, Quattro,
KCAKCA, Black Diamond Drilling
892
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:20,440
Services and Cross Boundary
Energy.
893
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,000
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of
894
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,080
general nature only and does not
take into account the
895
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,680
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular
896
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:31,720
person.
Before making any investment
897
00:46:31,720 --> 00:46:34,760
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and
898
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,920
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,
899
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,120
financial situation and needs.