What's Gone Wrong at Ivanhoe? (Neil Ringdahl)

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JD, I'm not sure if you've been
paying attention right, but

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there's a bit going on with
Kokola.

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So some, some brew pillars are
burst effectively and the extent

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and severity of this situation
is, is still kind of yet to

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fully play out.
The both Ivanhoe and Zejin have

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put out some commentary to the
effect to describe what's

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happening.
And it's early days.

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So we still don't kind of know
everything, but the, the share

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price has fallen that 20%
already.

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I'm talking about about Ivanhoe
in in this case.

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And as everyone's kind of trying
to piece things together, I

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thought it would be just
absolutely awesome if we got the

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insight of Neil Ringdial, who,
who is a mining engineer who is

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so like pointed and thoughtful
and great at explaining like

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what he is interpreting based on
the press releases.

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I caught up with Neil this
morning just on a, on a, on a

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call and I asked him some
questions, mostly because he put

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out a couple of tweets, which I,
I just found so insightful as he

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as he spoke about what, you
know, his interpretations of the

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events are, how serious they
might be and what the

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implications could be for for
Ivanhoe A. 100% mate.

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It's the biggest copper mine in
Africa.

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It's one of the biggest copper
mines in the world.

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It's been a glowing success
story for a number of years now.

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Obviously owned by Ivanhoe as
well as the Jin and the

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Congolese government.
And like you said, the the news

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has sort of rocked the stock
market.

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So we tacked on a little bit of
a conversation with the Koala at

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the end as well to get a more of
a, a market's kind of

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perspective on this and how he
kind of interprets the event.

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But I'm super excited to share
the the technical conversation

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with Neil as he sort of
understands it, his experience

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in underground operations.
Very excited to bring bring

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Neil's voice to the potty.
Let us know guys if you you want

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more from from Neil in the
future.

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I I really enjoyed speaking with
him and but first mate it's

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Friday, which means it's called
KCA Friday.

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Normally I like to surprise Adam
on Fridays, but today he's told

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me to call Kca's recruitment
manager, Christian Dean.

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Hello.
Trav.

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What?
You saved my number, Adam.

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Switched me up.
What would it take for a guy

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like me who has zero underground
mining expertise to to?

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Become an underground miner.
They got a manual.

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License, Yeah, yeah, that's good
start yeah for.

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Sure.
Like we're, we're all about

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helping our clients.
So it's what they want if they

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need actually little people and
they want to come to us.

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But in all honesty, like coming
from those experienced people,

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people with the skills that
they're looking for, people that

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are a bit tired of find.
So we generally have to go

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kicking, excuse the pun.
We're all this pretty much ex

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operators.
It's people they trust, people

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that have done it so we can
relate to the people we're

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speaking with, obviously know
some of those nuances that might

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be required and understand what
they actually need in both the

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candidate and and the client.
We know what it's like to be on

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site.
If they're not coming down the

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hall, if you don't have the
people, well that's not working.

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So when they call that you
really need someone and I need

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them yesterday.
So having that sort of mindset

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as opposed to just like just
recruiting, you know, so it

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happens.
I think that helps.

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Just called KCII.
Like to talk about things that

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I'm interested in and I've
always been interested in having

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her.
I should think before, you know,

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this is negative news, but I
must just say I'm very impressed

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with the ability of that company
to execute on building new mines

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and power plants.
And you know, they're very,

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very, very good at that.
You know, they're done projects,

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they've met, you know, projects
have been on time and they've

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had the glitches and but they've
been like worked through them.

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And I guess this is another one,
but I'm also a shareholder.

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I like to talk about, I like to
talk about stuff I invest in.

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And I know what it's like to be
on both sides of the story

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enough.
I've worked for public companies

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before in executive positions.
And, you know, there's that

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famous phrase that goes, you
know, if there's a bad press

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release in for a mining company,
then the news must be very bad,

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very bad indeed because they
always have to try and present

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the bad news in the best
possible light because of the

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obvious impact.
It's material, material

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information.
So it's always quite difficult

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to decipher these things.
And I felt I just wanted to, you

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know, share my own thoughts on
what I thought was really going

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on behind the scenes and what
might be the case, what might be

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happening there.
Yeah, I think that it's been

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super useful because originally
it appeared like, you know, the

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the owners of this operations
that Gin and Ivanhoe disagreed

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on.
Maybe.

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Maybe it was semantics.
Or.

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Or the sensitivity as it related
to what was actually happening

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here.
But there there was a

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geotechnical event of some sort,
but the the severity of it kind

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of took a little bit little
while to understand.

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You.
Were pretty astute, like early

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on when there was that initial
understanding that there could

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be a bit more to the story.
Yeah, I mean, my ears picked up

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when the first press release
came out that there were some

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problems.
And then then I got very

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concerned when the second press
release came out and there was

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some objection to the Zigen
press release from Ivanhoe.

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So the two major shareholders
had a disagreement.

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And I think it wasn't really
anything, as I said in my first

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tweet, I didn't think it was
anything malicious.

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I just think that maybe there
was a little bit less

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understanding or maybe there was
some concern about the the

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possible misunderstanding of the
audience what was in the

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decision press release.
But essentially both press

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releases were saying the same
thing.

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The one said that there was
spalling and falls of hanging

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wool.
And the other one said that

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there was some seismicity and,
you know, pillar bursts, OK.

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And when you have pillar pillars
bursting, you get spalling of

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the pillars.
That's what it's called.

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When you know the size of the
pillars flake off, that's called

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spalling.
And you'll get bits material

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falling off the hanging wall as
well.

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And it's obviously very
hazardous.

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If anybody's in that area, these
things happen, you know,

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seismics, the site, it's mining
induced seismicity.

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In other words, the seismicity
wasn't there.

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That's very lucky, in my
opinion.

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It wasn't, it wasn't, you know,
that part of the Congo is not

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very seismically active as far
as I'm aware.

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And so it has to be mining or
induced.

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And and that's, that's quite
normal for many operations.

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You know, even in ALMA here in
Honduras, we have, we also get,

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we also get pillar bursts from
time to time, but we don't have

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the same kind of very widespread
board and pillar layout that

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they've got at, at Kakula.
And in the shallow mining

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environment, like at Kakula,
you've, you've got a, you know,

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when you see, when you hear
about seismicity in a, in a

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shadow mining environment and
multiple, you know, multiple

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events or multiple, you know,
you know, bursting of pillars,

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that's, that's very big cause
for concern in any mine.

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OK, It's OK if you have one now
and again, but if you have

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multiple to the extent that your
main accesses, you know, you

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have to, you have to get people
out of there and that, you know,

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you have to start looking at
alternatives to replace your

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pumping system because your pump
columns have broken because of

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the because of the police
bursting, you know, that

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suggests that there's something
more serious, OK.

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Can you help me understand that
the difference between, yeah,

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like experiencing this in a date
mine versus a shallow mine and

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why?
Why the extra level of concern?

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Well, with deeper mining you get
more elastic behavior to the

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rock because of the depths and
you also have a stronger

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horizontal stress component
normally as well as a strong

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obviously a very strong, much
stronger vertical stress

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component.
With a deeper mine, you've got

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all this weighted rock above
you.

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You also get horizontal stress,
increase horizontal stress.

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And with ultra deep mines, like,
you know, the deep platinum

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mines and gold mine in South
Africa and in do some of the

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deep mines in North America that
I'm aware of, you know, you,

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you, you get the, the rock
actually behaves more

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plastically.
And so your support regimes are

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different, OK, to what you need.
You know, they're more of a

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yielding support.
And you have to, you have to do

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a mine layout that's, you know,
that suits, suits whatever

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environment you're in.
But the shallow mining

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environment, you're dealing more
with dead weight.

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OK, so we're talking anything
less than some people might

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think is deep, but it's 1000
meters or less is from where

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where I grew up was considered
shallow.

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And so that's, that's the
environment we're talking about

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a cooler, cooler.
I don't know what the depth is

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now, but it's probably less than
500 meters at this stage.

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I know that all body goes down
to about 1000 meters, but they

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haven't got that deep yet.
And so it's fairly shallow.

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And so when you do a mining
layer, and it's also a flat ore

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body.
So when you're mining a flat ore

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body, you're obviously going to
leave pillars to support the,

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the beam, the weights of
everything above you.

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Those pillars have to be
designed for the entire rock

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mess above the pillar.
And but that's, you know,

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overhanging between the
excavations between each pillar.

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OK.
And, and then how those pillars

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will fail will depend on the
size and the amount of stress on

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them.
And so if you make them smaller

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or if you start with a big
pillar and you might not, you

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know, or we make them too small,
depending on the rock

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characteristics themselves, it
will they will fail the other

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flail plastically or you know,
they'll burst.

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OK.
And you know, when a pillar

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bursts, I think it's important
to understand that it can still

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have a yield resistance after
bursting.

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It just means that the solid
part of the rock in the middle

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of the pillars definitely
cracked.

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OK, And you have broken rock on
the sides that Spall out OK, But

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as long as you keep that intact,
it's still got some support

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resistance left.
OK, Things can happen where you

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have if you have a very hard ore
body, for example, and maybe the

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foot wall or the floor is very
soft, you can have what will

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happen there is the pillow will
stay will will punch into the

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football and and it'll it'll
seem as if the floor is coming

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up, but really the pillow is
punching into the football.

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OK.
That's a different type of

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failing mechanism.
You can also have the reverse if

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you have a soft hanging wall and
you have a hard ore body that

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you're mining and can punch into
your hanging wall and that's

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going to be that's going to also
be pretty bad.

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In this case, from what I've
read from the technical reports,

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the foot wall is very hard and
in the all body itself is quite

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soft and in the material on top
of it is also quite soft.

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So they have to do a lot of
shotcreting and you know, a lot

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of support, a lot of shot
creating is just basically

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putting the concrete skin on the
inside of your tunnel.

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And then you know, you know,
your usual, your whatever

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support, your local support
regime they've got in form of of

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of bolts or anchors.
And then you've got your pillars

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which are holding up the mass of
everything above it.

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And so I don't know what what is
bursting.

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We don't have enough information
available to us to know exactly

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what's happening.
It could be the concrete skins

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on the shotcrete that's
bursting, but I don't think so.

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I think what probably the
pillars are solid rock pillars.

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And even though the rock is very
poor, the whole body is very

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poor.
It's it's, it's, you know, it

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crunches and when it crunches,
it makes a burst and it gives,

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it gives, you know, it releases
energy rapidly in that as that

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happens.
And then what's worrying to me

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though, and that can happen
fine.

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You know, sometimes you'll have
a small pillar that's kind of

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00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:35,200
taking a bit more load than than
than than the others around it.

227
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,480
Maybe there's bigger spans
between that pillar and others

228
00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,880
and it'll fail.
It'll fail like that.

229
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,520
It'll be a big thump
underground.

230
00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:46,800
You'll hear it and it'll give
you a scare and that pillar will

231
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,960
Spall and if you're nearby
you'll be OK.

232
00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:51,880
As long as you're not standing
next to it, you'd probably be

233
00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,320
OK.
But when you have multiple

234
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:57,960
pillars failing, that suggests
that they are losing.

235
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,640
So that beam that pillar fails
is a little bit of movement.

236
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,560
Now that hanging wool beam has
to be supported by the remaining

237
00:13:05,560 --> 00:13:09,200
pillars, which are still stiff,
but they also start failing.

238
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,200
Keep putting extra.
Extra like a runaway train.

239
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:17,560
OK, so you'll get a whole area
that starts to fail and that's

240
00:13:17,560 --> 00:13:22,000
what's concerning.
OK, if it was just one or two

241
00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:26,200
pillars, it would be OK, but it
seems to be widespread.

242
00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:29,120
Otherwise, why would they have
to evacuate the whole mine?

243
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,360
OK.
And so that's very concerning.

244
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,280
And so it's not really the
failure mode, which is what was

245
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,960
the the objection of of the
Ivanhoe guys were, you know,

246
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:43,760
objecting to what surgeon mining
was saying in my opinion, and

247
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:49,360
this is just my opinion, OK.
You know the I think I think

248
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,080
it's I think it's something more
serious.

249
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,600
I'm more concerned about the
number of pillars that have

250
00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,600
failed.
And it'd be great if we got some

251
00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,080
clarity from the company on that
and I'm sure we'll get that.

252
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:01,360
But you know, they have, they
have to be very careful how

253
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:06,440
they, how they, you know, how
they, how they explain this, you

254
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:12,440
know, to avoid liabilities.
Yeah, it's, it's, it's a risk

255
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,600
that was date detailed in, in
their technical reports 2020

256
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:24,760
like initially in 20/20/19.
And is that a risk that's there

257
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,480
just because of the, the mining
method itself or is it to do

258
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,240
with the, you know, the, the
ground conditions as well, a

259
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:32,920
kind of combination of all those
factors?

260
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,000
Is, I mean, I don't, you know,
at this stage it's too early for

261
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:41,560
us to comment on whether it was
a bad mining method or obviously

262
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,880
there was something that that
was planned that never went

263
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,760
according to plan that resulted
in this.

264
00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,280
So I mean, I'm actually looking
at the technical report right

265
00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:55,960
now here and it says, you know,
in the 2023 it talks about, you

266
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,760
know, major structures, namely
the waste fault structures that

267
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,240
still contain soft infilling.
And this coupled with tight

268
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,360
filling during drift and full
mining operations, it is

269
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,480
unlikely seismic activity will
occur on these structures.

270
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,800
It's it could be the fault
structures that are moving.

271
00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,320
OK, but the fact that they've
talked about pillars bursting

272
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:17,280
and spalling, I think it is a
pillars.

273
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,560
OK.
Then they'd say in the next

274
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:23,240
sentence of this technical
report.

275
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,280
The bracket pillars that will be
left along the large structures

276
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,040
will also assist in containing
seismic activity.

277
00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,520
So if you have a fault going
through an ore body and you're

278
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,320
mining along the other side, you
put a pillow on either side of

279
00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:36,760
the fault.
You don't actually mine on

280
00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:40,800
against the fault or through the
fault except for your excesses.

281
00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:42,520
And you leave a pillar.
Those are called bracket

282
00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,200
pillars.
And that's to prevent because

283
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,880
you'll have a different stress
regime in this block, which is

284
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,320
defined by the by the fault on
the one side.

285
00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,560
It'll have different stress and
this block will have different

286
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,320
stress depending on the load.
And so you can get movements on

287
00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,040
a fault and they can correct
that can be seismic, OK.

288
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,680
And that's what that's what
happens in the deep mine very

289
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,560
often, OK.
And I think that's what they

290
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:09,800
were concerned about here, OK,
But it's not a deep mine.

291
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,120
Nevertheless, it's a
consideration that was taken

292
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,680
into account by the geotech
guys, OK.

293
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,240
And an induced localized goes on
to say, hey, the induced

294
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:23,000
localized seismic response
associated with strain bursting

295
00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,440
and or pillow bursting, which is
the same thing may occur.

296
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,440
This will be contained a result
of tight filling and correct

297
00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,960
sequencing during cut and saw
mining operations.

298
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,880
The seismicity in this case must
be related to the pillars

299
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:38,120
failing.
OK.

300
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,080
And then probably because they
were too small or the mining

301
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:45,240
spans were too large for that
rock mass rating before that

302
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,120
particular rock time.
OK.

303
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:56,240
And and you know in the previous
technical report that said there

304
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:59,040
was not enough information.
They need to do more work on it.

305
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,280
I'm sure the team, they have
been doing work on it, but they

306
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,000
made a decision based on
recommendations by subject

307
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,520
matter experts to do a
particular mining method and

308
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,839
then they went and mined it.
And now what's happened is they

309
00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:14,720
found that the regional low
bearing capacity of this pillar

310
00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,560
seems to be aggression.
OK.

311
00:17:18,079 --> 00:17:20,640
And that's the question that
they are probably looking into

312
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:24,480
right now.
Is it that bad that they have to

313
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,280
go and redevelop a whole, you
know, new mine adjacent to the

314
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,240
existing mine?
Or is it is it going to be

315
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:40,360
something that is, you know,
maybe they can manage, maybe

316
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:43,640
it's just, you know, a localized
area in this in a one in, you

317
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,480
know, in a in one section of the
mine.

318
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,520
They can still continue to mine.
And then they have to ask

319
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,680
yourself the question, what
mining method were they using?

320
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,360
And it was a drift and full
mining method with backfill is a

321
00:17:55,360 --> 00:17:58,760
brand new backfill plant on
site, fully commissioned, very

322
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,080
state-of-the-art.
But there could have been a

323
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,400
management decision there.
And that's what I seduced it as

324
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,240
well.
There might have been a

325
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,720
management decision to delay the
backfilling and just mine the

326
00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,400
primary drifts and then not not
come back and backfill them,

327
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,800
just mine the primary drifts and
keep going because it's such a

328
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:17,280
huge ore body.
You could probably get away with

329
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,880
that as long as you don't go
back and rob any pillars.

330
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,560
Maybe maybe that's what maybe
that's what the issue is.

331
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,880
Maybe they, you know, maybe they
should have backfilled this, OK.

332
00:18:29,360 --> 00:18:33,440
And or maybe there was secondary
extraction going ahead of time.

333
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,080
People were taking a bit of a
chance.

334
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:40,800
It could be an operating thing.
OK, The geotech consultants will

335
00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:43,680
be quick to jump on that.
If that is the case, I'm sure,

336
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,680
OK.
And I'm sure the truth will come

337
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,760
out in the wash, but it could
have just been a case that the

338
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,520
pillar designs were, you know,
it's normally multiple factors

339
00:18:54,520 --> 00:18:56,160
as well that causes something
like this.

340
00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,160
Like any incident in the mine,
there's not one factor that

341
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,600
normally results in an incident
or or injury or a fatality.

342
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,360
There's normally multiple
factors.

343
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,160
Just like, you know, when you
look at an aircraft

344
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,480
investigation, I'm sure you've
know about the Swiss cheese

345
00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:16,000
municipal where you have these
walls of safety and they but

346
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,000
each have the each have, they're
not, they're not fail safe and

347
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,840
they've got holes in them.
And so if the holes line up

348
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,440
perfectly, then that's what
happens.

349
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,480
So you've got to think like
that.

350
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:32,880
Yeah, so.
The, the, the way around this,

351
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,120
would it, would it have likely
have just been to well, OK, so

352
00:19:37,120 --> 00:19:40,160
maybe it was maybe, maybe if it
was the lack of back filling,

353
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,120
back filling might have maybe
mitigated it.

354
00:19:42,120 --> 00:19:44,960
But could there also have been
an issue with the pillar sizes

355
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:51,800
themselves being too too small?
Yeah, of course, could be.

356
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:56,040
Yeah.
I looked at the mining plan in

357
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,560
my tweets and I tweeted a
picture of it.

358
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,800
You know, you could see what
they did in 2019.

359
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:04,880
And then here's a photograph of
the mine.

360
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,440
What's being mined?
In 2000 and not a photograph,

361
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,440
but as built part of the mine
and you can have a look, you can

362
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,280
see, you can see the drifts that
they've mined and they mine out

363
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,080
very quite a large area.
It looks like about 500 meters

364
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:22,680
more in span over maybe a
kilometer or two.

365
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,400
It's I mean they've been mining
at quite a right there.

366
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,160
And so that's a big area that's
mined.

367
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,680
And it's like, you know, coal
mines developed like that too,

368
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,760
which is a very flat ore body.
So it's very similar to coal

369
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:40,040
mining, underground coal mining.
And when you do board and pillar

370
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,520
mining and coal mining, you
know, you've also got to bear in

371
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:47,280
mind that your pillars have to
be designed for for the full

372
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,320
load over the full span.
And if one area fails, the

373
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,320
weight be the load in that area
that's failed can transfer them

374
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:56,880
to the adjacent area.
And I think that's what's

375
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,880
happened here.
And unfortunately, it looks like

376
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:05,040
it's gone a bit close to the
development into the, you know,

377
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,640
the main, the main axis
development it might have, that

378
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,160
might have gone and affected the
main access declines.

379
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,160
And I only only come to that
conclusion because the pump

380
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,040
pumping system was damaged and
they're looking at replacing,

381
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:24,480
you know, getting a new pumps
and new and new lines to to keep

382
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,800
the mind dry.
And I would imagine those lines

383
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,480
will probably be in the main
access decline if you would

384
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,400
think that would be in a more
protected area.

385
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,200
So.
So that is a concern, yeah.

386
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,640
When you, when you highlight
those two photos, 1 from 2019,

387
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,040
yeah, the other one from 2023,
what are you comparing there and

388
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:47,960
and sort of seeing that's
different?

389
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,080
You can see the block that they
said room and pillar mining

390
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,560
area.
OK, I look at that room and

391
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,200
pillar mining area there in
scale and I can see the green

392
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,040
declines going down there.
And I switch over to the next

393
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:05,120
picture, you know as built in
June 2022 and I can see that

394
00:22:05,120 --> 00:22:08,200
room and pillar mining area.
They've done some room and

395
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,000
pillar mining there and then
there's lots of fingers going

396
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,680
along there.
If you look very small, they're

397
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,880
all Gray fingers.
And those are the developments

398
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,800
and in between all the pillars,
OK.

399
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,440
And I'm not sure which of the
pillars have failed and which

400
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:26,040
have not, but I have to imagine
that all of those pillars have

401
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,040
gone and they've moved over
towards the North Port or access

402
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,920
area, which is looks like the
mining gets quite close there,

403
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,360
OK, to that E service perimeter,
E perimeter service drift that

404
00:22:38,360 --> 00:22:42,880
they've got planned there, OK.
And I don't know if you can show

405
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,160
the audience.
Yeah.

406
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,040
But that area there between the
North Port and the east

407
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,280
perimeter service drift is what
I think is where I imagine the

408
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,560
pump column might be.
That service drift is a decline

409
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,440
going down, probably downed up
by the looks of it.

410
00:22:59,360 --> 00:23:04,120
And and we've got to see, you
know, that axis will be cut off.

411
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:08,440
The part of the analysis you,
you, you know, you've put out

412
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:13,640
there that grab grabs me and
clearly the the share market as

413
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,600
as well was kind of your, your
thumb sucking implications that

414
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:21,040
there might be for both both my
life and and operating costs.

415
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320
How, how did you, how'd you come
up with with those numbers?

416
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:36,400
Good question.
It's I guess it's a it's what I

417
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:41,800
think could be the implication.
I mean, if you look at the again

418
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:47,880
at the map, I imagine that N
portal ramps pretty good down to

419
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,040
the bottom of the straight
section there.

420
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,560
But maybe you have to redevelop
all the way around to get to

421
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:58,000
access, you know, you have to
develop all around, right around

422
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,560
that caved area.
And the worst case scenario,

423
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,960
it's quite a lot of development.
There's no scale on this

424
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,880
particular plan, but those are
big ends.

425
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,960
Those are 6 by 6m ends, twin
ends.

426
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,920
They're, you know, forming the
east service perimeter drifts.

427
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,320
There's two of them running down
there.

428
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,480
So you can get an idea.
It's a couple 100 meters, few

429
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,440
100 meters, maybe 1000 meters of
development that you'd need to

430
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,680
reconnect to that existing
design for the east perimeter

431
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,240
service drift.
And then you have to go back

432
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,880
into the ore body and develop
into the ore new new access

433
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,400
drifts.
So I don't think it's that

434
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:41,200
unreasonable to say it could be
anything from 6 to 18 months if

435
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,120
you have to redevelop the mind
if that whole area is unsafe to

436
00:24:44,120 --> 00:24:47,000
go back into.
But as I said, those pillars

437
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,960
might be good enough.
You know, if the size MIDI

438
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,320
settles down and the whole thing
settles down, you may still be

439
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,120
able to go back into the area.
That's where the pillars are

440
00:24:56,120 --> 00:24:58,720
burst and you may still be able
to use some of that

441
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,160
infrastructure again, you know,
and do it safely.

442
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,840
And then just brack, you know,
and then the impact will be a

443
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,280
lot lower.
We'll, I'm sure everybody's

444
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,880
doing their sums and their
design work and the inspections

445
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,200
and that and and working out
what to do.

446
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,600
And we need to give the company
some time to to come up with a

447
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:24,080
plan how to how to, you know,
how to re establish this again,

448
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:27,320
if we look at the resource and
reserve, most likely we're going

449
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:32,280
to have a decrease in the
reserve because you have to you

450
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,880
know, in your reserve caps, you
leave pillars outside, outside a

451
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,120
reserve reserve is what you can
actually put in the mill.

452
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,440
So any pillars that you leave
behind, stability pillars you

453
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,160
leave behind will have to come
out of the reserve, out of the

454
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,240
reserve.
And obviously if this has

455
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:52,760
failed, we need to be more
conservative with our design.

456
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,240
So one would naturally cook 2.
The pillars have to be bigger.

457
00:25:57,120 --> 00:26:01,080
OK, it's possible they won't.
I mean, if they can work out a

458
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:06,720
way to backfill and do, you
know, complete extraction, that

459
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,280
would be great.
But that would be another whole

460
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:13,160
new mining method altogether.
And I don't know what the

461
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,320
geotechnical implications of
that would be.

462
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:22,440
OK, but but but I suppose that's
a possibility.

463
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,680
I think more realistically
they'll probably end up going

464
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:28,080
with bigger pillars and that
would mean, you know, how much

465
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,600
bigger pillars do you need?
I don't know the answer to that.

466
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,280
But you know, even if the
pillars are 10% bigger, you're

467
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,600
probably looking at about a
probably looking at about a 30%

468
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,840
reduction in reserves.
Yeah, OK, maybe maybe less, but

469
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,760
probably something like that
looking at this layout be.

470
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,760
Substantial, OK.
But it's substantial.

471
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,560
But it's not.
It's not really.

472
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,160
An.
Enormous resource.

473
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,040
It's such a magnificent
resource.

474
00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:00,240
OK, so that it's just going to
take longer to longer to mine

475
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,160
and it'll take them much longer
to ramp up to the planned the

476
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,240
planned numbers that they've,
you know they've got in their

477
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:13,040
the phases of phase four phase.
I can't remember which phase

478
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,800
they're on now, but in the next
phase of expansion, OK.

479
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,920
So it'll just be a slower ramp
up and they also obviously doing

480
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,600
homework as I mentioned, I think
they'll they'll they'll be

481
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,240
looking at increasing production
from Kamoa and maybe they can

482
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:32,160
fast track the IT seems that
Kakula W is not that badly

483
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,440
affected.
If you look at the map, it also

484
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,360
seems like you know that South
portal ramp is a little bit

485
00:27:38,360 --> 00:27:40,640
further away from most of the
minings to date.

486
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,280
So not as much bypass
development may be required

487
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,800
there to go and re establish
something to the West and maybe

488
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,520
they can get into that a bit
faster.

489
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:51,760
Gotcha.
So.

490
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:53,840
So we've got to wait and see
what they say there.

491
00:27:55,120 --> 00:27:58,080
Gotcha.
The twin D the twin twin portals

492
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,400
in this case, you would you
would you would assume you know

493
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:05,480
helps the continuity of of
operations as opposed to having

494
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,760
like a an elongated period where
you can't actually mine right,

495
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,040
correct, correct.
Yeah.

496
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,040
You know, and I guess, you know,
you look at all the plan

497
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:19,320
development there, it's quite
hard to see, you know, with

498
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,960
this, you know, simplified
diagrams for this would be much

499
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,760
better to see more detail.
And I think there is more detail

500
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,040
available there.
I haven't looked.

501
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:32,280
Ivan has been very good at
presenting detail on their

502
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,520
expansion plans as they go with,
you know, presentations and

503
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,120
videos.
And I've been, you know, been

504
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,720
looking at these for months and
months and years and years.

505
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,240
Every quarter that I think every
month they put out a new photo

506
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:48,200
album of each of their projects.
And it's very interesting to see

507
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,760
what they do.
There's a lot of very good info

508
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:56,200
that I get from from those photo
reports and, and, and what their

509
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:57,920
display is really impressive
stuff.

510
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,280
And with this team that they've
got, they'll, they'll do the

511
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,760
best that they can do.
It's unfortunate markets don't

512
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:10,440
really give credit to teams, you
know, for success really.

513
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,080
They've quicker to give this
credit to discredit the team

514
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:16,800
when they have something like
this.

515
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,280
And I've mentioned that in one
of my comments to some of the

516
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,960
questions that got to these
tweets is, you know, it's it's

517
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,680
very easy for us to say, yeah,
it could be management and it

518
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,080
could be management, right?
But these guys have done a

519
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,720
really good job, really good job
of it.

520
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,720
So we should give them the
opportunity to see what they can

521
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,320
do to come back.
Market doesn't care about that,

522
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:38,560
though.
Market's going to sell on the

523
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,280
news, right?
Market's forward-looking, yeah,

524
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:42,840
You know, unfortunately.
Done.

525
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,200
It's baked in, it's baked in
now.

526
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,320
So you know, so now everybody
wants to know well what how bad

527
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,720
is the impact?
And it's hard to say with the

528
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,760
information we got and we're
really just grasping at strolls

529
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,360
here.
But but I try to give it a go

530
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:01,200
and, and I decided that for now,
I'm backing out.

531
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,920
So I sold my stock.
And but that doesn't mean I

532
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,920
think the company's going to do
badly.

533
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,640
I just think it's, you know, a
wise thing to do.

534
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,040
And, you know, I'm sure they'll
come up with a plan to resolve

535
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:18,400
this and, and, you know, they'll
get back into it again.

536
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,600
And this is mining it mining has
these problems.

537
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,720
Projects, they all, you know, we
always say project get delayed,

538
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,800
projects will be late and they
will overrun on costs.

539
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,400
You're always guaranteed that to
happen on every project.

540
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,680
This one kind of that's
happening maybe a little bit

541
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:37,040
later in the cycle.
We're really in operation, which

542
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,440
is not good, but there's so much
expansion going on within,

543
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,640
within this, you know, mining
complex here.

544
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,640
It's something that I'm sure
that they'll be able to deal

545
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:54,280
with in the medium term.
Yeah, yeah, it's we're always

546
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:55,840
forward-looking for sure.
But I don't think any other

547
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:59,080
company could have could have
done what what has been done in

548
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,160
this part of the world to
actually bring this operation

549
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,960
online in the 1st place and.
The market needs to be patient

550
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,360
because if they, you know, and I
and I guess that's the danger.

551
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,120
That's what happened with the
pressure users.

552
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,040
You know, I know what it's like
with these things.

553
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,560
Yeah.
You know, when you're on the

554
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,520
side of this, something like
this happening, you, you almost

555
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:24,640
go through a phase of denial,
OK, And then acceptance, you

556
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,160
know, and anger, you know, all
the phases you get when you've

557
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,120
got a terminal disease or
something, you know, it's a

558
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,040
similar type of thing.
And you have to be capable.

559
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,840
I mean, if you're an executive,
you know, responsible for an

560
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,680
operation like this, you can't
just go out there and put up.

561
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,360
You got to make sure you have
all the facts and you've got to

562
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,880
have it signed off.
Then you got to hear what the

563
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,000
experts say and you got to hear
what your people say.

564
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,360
And then you've got to make some
tough decisions and you've got

565
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,800
to think about how you're going
to formulate this to the market.

566
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,440
You've got to try and do it in
the best possible light, of

567
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,880
course, because you want to have
a minimal impact to your

568
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:04,680
business, I mean, to your share
price really, You know, if we

569
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:08,920
were honest about it and, and
you know, if you think about the

570
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:14,040
concept of a company, mining
company or any company, I have

571
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:19,080
this rather naive, well told us
naive way of thinking about it.

572
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,360
You know the old ways you buy,
you buy a company stock because

573
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,920
you believe in the future, your
future, you know, and the value

574
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,360
of that stock is should be
directly proportional to the

575
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,680
future value of the dividends.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

576
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,240
I don't worry.
I still think that way too.

577
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,040
But not not everything.
Not everything's valued on DCF

578
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,360
these days in mining.
But you've got all these people

579
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,560
who have to short the stock on
news.

580
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,920
OK, That makes things really,
really difficult, Pop.

581
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,040
Shops.
So, you know, it's kind of crazy

582
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,960
that the companies, the share
price dropped as much as it has

583
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,800
because you know, there's other
mines that this company has

584
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,800
control of.
And you know, while this is a

585
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,520
big part of it, it's, it's not
20%.

586
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:01,120
Right.
Yeah.

587
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:09,040
The the, the, the one part of
everything that that couldn't

588
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,320
help but notice, Neil, any
commentary was and it relates to

589
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,440
press releases, but Turner's law
of mining press releases.

590
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:16,720
Now, I actually haven't heard of
this before.

591
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:20,600
I'm, you know, I'd love to, I'd
love to just just hear you tell

592
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,880
me about that and that relates.
There's a there's a newsletter

593
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:25,640
writer by the name of Mark
Turner.

594
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:26,800
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

595
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:32,400
And he's he's the one who's
always said that, you know, if,

596
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:36,240
if a mining company has to put
out, given the mining company

597
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,640
has to put out.
Boyd News always has to always

598
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,880
present news in the best
possible light, you know, So if

599
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,320
it's bad news that comes out, it
must be very bad.

600
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,040
OK.
Indeed, All right.

601
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,200
And I guess it's tongue in
cheek, but it's true.

602
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,880
You know, unfortunately, you
know, we've seen that before

603
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,120
with, you know, with many
companies, you know, that have

604
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:06,960
to release bad news.
You know, there's that

605
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:11,480
Australian, my Capricorn.
Yeah, well, 29 medals can be

606
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,560
gone, Copper.
Right, 31 medals.

607
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,800
Yeah, OK, It just got worse
somewhere such.

608
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,080
A great yeah, I mean, there's a
perfect example yeah.

609
00:34:20,159 --> 00:34:25,320
OK, it's sometimes that happens
and you know it's mining.

610
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:29,159
We mining, we say, you know,
shit happens, you got to deal

611
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:33,080
with it so.
So that's what happens here and.

612
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,600
And they got to deal with it and
they'll get through it.

613
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:40,760
And hopefully the whole
management team responsible for

614
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,960
this don't get fired.
Hopefully they, you know, they,

615
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,000
they carry on going.
And if they do get fired, it's

616
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:48,719
because they haven't done the
right job.

617
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,560
They haven't done, haven't made
the right decision.

618
00:34:51,639 --> 00:34:54,159
They've made a bad decision.
Yeah, OK.

619
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,800
But I imagine, imagine they'll
survive it given the great

620
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:02,720
performance to date.
It's in a difficult jurisdiction

621
00:35:02,720 --> 00:35:05,200
as well.
And that's part of the problem.

622
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,200
These sort of things,
unfortunately are going to

623
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,240
happen more and more going
forward because there's less and

624
00:35:10,240 --> 00:35:14,400
less good mining people out
there who can, who are able to

625
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:19,600
run mines and mining companies.
You get, you get accountants and

626
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:24,240
apologies to the accountants who
are CE OS and, and business

627
00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:29,200
development guys and, and bank,
you know, bankers who are CE OS

628
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,680
mining CE OS, but they, they
don't really know much about

629
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:37,880
mining and, and, and it's easy
to cut costs, but, but is that

630
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,280
really the right thing for the
mine?

631
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:43,040
And, you know, you can get into
the whole quagmire stuff.

632
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,840
But I think that's the biggest
problem is we've got, and the

633
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,240
mining engineers we've got
aren't really that good.

634
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,000
The few good ones that are out
there are taken.

635
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,280
And you know, everybody who
comes out of university wants to

636
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,400
become a manager tomorrow and no
one really wants to do the dog

637
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:03,080
work, you know, and be a drill
operator and A and A and a shift

638
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,720
supervisor for five years.
And and you know, they want to

639
00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,040
get promoted.
And because there's no one in

640
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:11,480
the business doing mining, no
one wants to go into mining and

641
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:15,200
the kids want to go into mining.
There's there's less skills out

642
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,640
there.
And so people get promoted

643
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,920
really fast, too fast.
And they don't have the

644
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:22,960
experience and certain
experience, you know, even

645
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:27,320
amongst the miners you get guys
who you make, you make, you

646
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:29,640
know, bad decisions because they
just don't have the experience.

647
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,840
They haven't had enough time
learning from the old timers how

648
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,720
to how to mine and what to look
for when you look in a mine when

649
00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:39,640
you go and visit a mine.
If I was, if I, if I didn't

650
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,200
already decide to be a finance
guy in Yale, I'd be listening to

651
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,800
you right now.
And I'd, I'd, you know, I'd

652
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,240
just, I'd, I'd study mining
engineering.

653
00:36:47,240 --> 00:36:48,400
And I know because.
There's a skill.

654
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,040
Shortage.
I'm going to get paid so well in

655
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:52,840
the future.
Right.

656
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:57,720
But the thing, but I mean the
number of of guys, you know, I

657
00:36:57,720 --> 00:37:00,480
take a lot of respect for the
old time and minor guys who

658
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:03,160
didn't go through and didn't get
a degree in mining.

659
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:08,040
And they they are sidelined, you
know, because other guys have

660
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,720
degrees, but they're the ones
with the real experience.

661
00:37:10,720 --> 00:37:12,960
They're the ones who teach the
people with degrees something.

662
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,080
But it takes time to do that.
And if the young guys are high

663
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:18,560
fire, he's going to take the
highest job.

664
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,800
I mean most of most young mining
people that take the highest

665
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,360
paying job they can get.
Yeah, sometimes what you need to

666
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:26,680
run, yeah.
Yeah.

667
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,520
And so you end up with people
running mines who we have half

668
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,280
the experience that should be.
And then these sort of things

669
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:39,280
happen or they have a great
control problem and the mine has

670
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,400
to close down because they
never, they never did the, they

671
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:43,600
never did their homework
properly.

672
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,520
Oh.
Yeah, yeah.

673
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,080
So it's not surprising.
So it's not surprising that this

674
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,560
sort of thing could happen even
with a large company like

675
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,160
Ivanhoe.
You would hope that you guys

676
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:59,320
would attract the best.
But you know, it's this.

677
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,520
Mine is in the DRC.
It's not that easy to work

678
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,560
there.
You know, I've got friends

679
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,480
who've worked out being there.
It's not.

680
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,800
There's better places in the
world you can work.

681
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,360
And so they have to pay very
well and they may not get the

682
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,520
right people there.
I don't know if they can.

683
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,880
I know I've turned down a couple
of Congolese jobs.

684
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:21,920
I went to the Congo earlier this
year.

685
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:27,000
I didn't make it to to cooler
Ocamo, but but yeah, that was a

686
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:31,520
an absolutely transcendental
experience flying into

687
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,200
Lumumbashi airport, I tell you
that much.

688
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,960
I mean, I do love, don't get me
wrong.

689
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:41,560
I love parts of the DRC, you
know, but Lumumbashi area and

690
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,640
the copper belt area, I don't.
I don't love.

691
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:50,960
Yeah.
Unbelievable.

692
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,400
Neil, this has been an absolute
privilege to, to get your

693
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,440
insights.
And you know, I'm, I'm certainly

694
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:57,920
very grateful.
I'm sure our audience will be

695
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,560
extremely grateful that you've
been generous enough to, to

696
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,960
share your, you know, your,
your, your views, reading

697
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,360
between the lines and tying it
all in with your decades of real

698
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,480
mining experience.
Extremely valuable.

699
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,800
If anyone's interested in in
finding Neil is prolific on

700
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:16,240
Twitter, I'll put a link in the
in the shower notes.

701
00:39:16,240 --> 00:39:18,760
But thank you so much, Neil.
This has been, this has been

702
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,840
absolutely.
Travis was good talking to you

703
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,600
and hope to talk to you again
sometime.

704
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,480
Mate, how good was that insight?
Unreal.

705
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:28,320
Unreal.
Yeah, Neil is just like an

706
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,720
absolute wealth of technical
knowledge.

707
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,960
Very generous to share, share
his insights with us, I think.

708
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,520
And it was interesting, right.
One thing we didn't even cover

709
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,360
with him, but I've been thinking
about mate, it's.

710
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,680
Just like.
You know, there's been this like

711
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,560
real flurry of, of unexpected
disruptions in mining operations

712
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,680
lately, especially in Africa as
well.

713
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:51,080
Not just Kokola, but like in the
last few months I've noticed

714
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,920
obviously Alfman's biasing mine
when that got suspended because

715
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:58,600
the rebels got close.
Cyrus Bulama, I got suspended

716
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,480
when farmers protested of all
things, Sibanya's Cloof mine,

717
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,720
waste failure in the shaft.
I'm pretty sure all those things

718
00:40:05,720 --> 00:40:07,720
were within the last couple of
months alone.

719
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:11,720
It's pretty brutal for the
mining companies out there, so I

720
00:40:11,720 --> 00:40:14,640
think there's a sort of lesson
to expect the unexpected if

721
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,440
you're in the mining business.
That is a good saying.

722
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:19,320
I think we should put that one
on the wall, mate.

723
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,200
I like that.
Yeah, it's it's interesting,

724
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:25,200
right?
You think about it because the

725
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:30,520
best preparation you can have to
be ready for the unexpected is

726
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:32,920
actually just making sure that
your insurance policies are

727
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:37,240
appropriate for your mines
bespoke risks. 100% mate, mining

728
00:40:37,240 --> 00:40:40,920
companies cannot afford to have
insurance policies that are not

729
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:43,440
up to scratch.
I just don't think it's

730
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,360
conducive to a good night, good
night's sleep if you're a minor

731
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:49,720
right and the worst thing about
it is it hits you when you can

732
00:40:49,720 --> 00:40:52,400
least afford to be hit.
That's.

733
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,600
Why you got to call CRE
insurance JD they have the. 2.

734
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,040
Gurus.
The gurus.

735
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:00,040
In mining and construction
insurance for underground for

736
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:04,600
open pit or infrastructure
projects, gurus, get yourself

737
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:07,840
covered for all possibilities.
The unexpected things is what

738
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:08,960
you've got to be worried about,
mate.

739
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,240
Gets even better mate.
They don't do cookie cutter

740
00:41:12,240 --> 00:41:13,440
solutions.
Tailored.

741
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,640
We're talking tailored
solutions, right for your

742
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:18,520
company, right for your
situation, right for your mind,

743
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:20,920
right for all the risks you are
going to face, the ones you know

744
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:22,760
about, the ones you don't know
about.

745
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:25,320
And we're talking dealing with
experts.

746
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,200
Quick and easy claims mate.
I think every, every mining

747
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:30,400
disruption, it's you didn't
expect it.

748
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,080
If you expected it probably
would have happened.

749
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,520
You know, that's like everyone
thinks that their policies have

750
00:41:35,720 --> 00:41:37,480
sufficient coverage and then
something comes up and it was

751
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,520
like, oh, damn it, if only I had
bespoke insurance brokers that

752
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:44,000
properly understand the bespoke
mining risk of the jurisdiction

753
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,880
and operation that I have and
can ensure my policies are

754
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,480
adequate and can price things
appropriately.

755
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,680
Oh, wait, they exist, mate.
It's called CRE insurance.

756
00:41:51,720 --> 00:41:53,960
Oh, by the way, mining
contractors, mining service

757
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,040
providers gets even better
because because they understand

758
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,120
mining, it means that they will
get you better policies at a

759
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,320
better price.
Thanks for the support CRE.

760
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,120
Go CRE right now to the
conversation with Koala.

761
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:11,600
Have you got any thoughts?
Not a mining engineer, so hard

762
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:16,000
to want to be guarded in my
comments because it's not my

763
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,920
area of expertise.
I know the I've no people to be

764
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,880
exceptional and straightforward
operators.

765
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:28,520
I think that they wouldn't have
had a site visit that I

766
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:32,760
understand they cancelled or
anything if they thought that

767
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,080
the initial seismic was going to
continue.

768
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,720
And I think this is one of these
just very unfortunate

769
00:42:38,720 --> 00:42:42,160
situations.
And you know what?

770
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:46,480
I will use Alpha man when Goma
felt M23 or when the mindset is

771
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,840
an example.
The market hates a void of

772
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:52,840
information and uncertainty.
You have a spike of uncertainty

773
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,840
if you take the complete bullish
case, it's ah, there's so much

774
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,800
copper there.
One or two quarters doesn't

775
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,880
change the NAV on a 40 year mine
life.

776
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:06,640
I do think there's levers to
pull given the Kapushi ramp that

777
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:10,760
should generate some cash.
We'll look forward in two to

778
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,360
three years.
And even if a portion of Kakula

779
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,320
is sterilized, there's enough
levers to pull there that you

780
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:23,800
can push more Kamoa, maybe push
more Kakula West, develop one or

781
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:27,240
the other.
Like I mean, there's like 6

782
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:31,000
different proposed mines just in
the Kamola joint venture area.

783
00:43:32,240 --> 00:43:36,320
You can go pull in, it'll be
lower grade or, but you can keep

784
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,640
those mills full.
It might take a little while in

785
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,840
a worst case scenario to get
those mills filled again.

786
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:46,040
But I mean, look, it's, it's not
great, but it feels like one of

787
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,720
these classic, the stock could
be down 20 to 3040% initially

788
00:43:50,720 --> 00:43:57,400
and we wake up in 12 months and
it's recovered 60 to 70% of that

789
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,840
damage as we just get more
clarity and disclosure and

790
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,840
understanding what it is.
I mean, another good example is

791
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,560
when Glencore DOJ happened,
stocks down 10%.

792
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:13,680
It was down 5-6 billion in
market cap from memory in July

793
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,800
2018.
And then when we finally get the

794
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:20,520
settlement like five years
later, it's it's not even $2

795
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,240
billion.
And it's like, why'd we freak

796
00:44:23,240 --> 00:44:24,760
out?
It's like, because the market

797
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:29,200
just hates a void.
So I'm looking at Ivanhoe very

798
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:33,720
carefully.
You don't get chances to buy

799
00:44:33,720 --> 00:44:36,800
world class opportunities on
sale.

800
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:40,960
Even if it's got a little bit of
a scratch on it now potentially,

801
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:47,000
it's still a world class
district opportunity and team.

802
00:44:47,720 --> 00:44:50,280
How good was that from both,
both both Neil and the Koala and

803
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:53,920
a full episode with the koala
with everything except for that

804
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:56,880
little quip is going to be out
either Saturday or Sunday this

805
00:44:56,880 --> 00:44:58,160
weekend.
So stay tuned for that one.

806
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:00,120
JD, we've got some partners to
thank.

807
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,560
We do thank you to the awesome
partners at Mineral Mining

808
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:07,600
Services, MMS, Grounded, Sandvik
Ground Support, CRE Insurance, K

809
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:11,120
Drill, KCA Side Services, Cross
Boundary Energy and Black

810
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,160
Diamond.
Service.

811
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,400
If you don't like it, you can
always become a recruiter it

812
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:24,120
sounds like.
That's that's easy.

813
00:45:25,240 --> 00:45:28,280
Yeah, well, you know, you know,
that's a very valid point.

814
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,360
All right mate, I wasn't sure.
If you were calling to just let

815
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,000
me know or like I was actually
recording what I was like, oh

816
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,680
shit, what I realised.
Yeah, well, I was thinking.

817
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,760
In my head it would be funny as
if if I put on some voice and

818
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,680
just pretend I'm some rando and
my friend told me to call you to

819
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,680
get like a job and I'm just
asking a bunch of dumb ass

820
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,000
questions.
But then when you answered.

821
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,280
Oh hey, Travis, you threw me off
and I was like, there goes my

822
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:49,880
whole stick.