We’re Back. And so are Mega Deals

1
00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:05,760
Righto money waters, we are back
if calendar year 2025.

2
00:00:05,840 --> 00:00:08,080
Not if I'm in financial year
mode.

3
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,600
Sorry to break it to you is all.
I did not wanna be here today.

4
00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,840
I could have easily retired but.
Starting the hedge.

5
00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,280
Fund had a good break to.
Work had to work, Mike said.

6
00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,040
I couldn't have lived a more
Australian summer.

7
00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,680
I drank a shit load of beer.
I've got a case of AB or smoke

8
00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,080
tapes of meat.
I didn't smoke.

9
00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:29,600
I didn't do anything illegal for
the new man.

10
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,320
I've quit the vibe.
Yeah, bloody.

11
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,840
I played a shit load of golf and
watched a few of me stocks go up

12
00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,280
just on fire.
You are the.

13
00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:41,400
What about?
You boys.

14
00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,840
Aussie.
Bloke Oh mate, what are you boys

15
00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:44,960
though?
What do you boys get up to?

16
00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:47,520
Had a whirlwind trip overseas,
mate.

17
00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,480
It was awesome.
Yeah, so the family in Europe

18
00:00:49,480 --> 00:00:53,200
loved it.
I, I quit, I quit all of the the

19
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,200
bad food, mate.
I've, I've, I've I'm on a New

20
00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:56,600
Year's resolution.
Let's see how long it'll last.

21
00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:59,360
I hope to lose all the weight
I've put on since starting Money

22
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,000
mine.
I bloody ate as much as I could

23
00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,880
and I friggin enjoyed it.
Back to push ups today, how are

24
00:01:05,960 --> 00:01:06,960
you?
Starting with mate.

25
00:01:06,960 --> 00:01:11,000
What have we got, boy?
A bit to catch up on, buddy.

26
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:13,840
There's been a bit happening.
The big news that you boys are

27
00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:18,960
going to dive into most
logically, Glencore Rio talks,

28
00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,520
talks.
Past tense pretense.

29
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:24,360
Future tense maybe?
Big news would be the biggest

30
00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:29,760
mining M and a deal if true.
Yeah, companies, companies

31
00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:31,880
pretty quiet on it.
But yeah, the other one I'm

32
00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,400
going to talk about Maddie is
the news app that the that I and

33
00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:36,880
El company, we haven't talked
about much.

34
00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:41,120
The Rhyolite Ridge lithium boron
project in Nevada has kind of

35
00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,800
got got some upsized funding in
line with the DOA.

36
00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:46,600
Some implications for Sabania
from that one.

37
00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,440
I'll have a young about that and
you guys are going into the

38
00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:50,160
Goldies.
We've got to go Goldies because

39
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:55,840
in honour of like Ali GC who is
in the building, she will be on

40
00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:57,880
camera this week.
We'd better go through all the

41
00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,280
the Australian Goldies.
Pre quarterly's out some

42
00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,160
quarterly's out few.
There's there's been, there's

43
00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,720
some UPS, there's some downs,
there's some mid ranges.

44
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,360
We're going right into it.
We need to get into oil and gas

45
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,520
as well, I think.
Bit of bloody.

46
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:14,520
Have you?
Have you just watched Land Man

47
00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:16,720
yet?
I haven't I I sort of.

48
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,000
I've seen the trailer.
You've got to get on the land,

49
00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:20,880
man.
Because the bit where he's like

50
00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,440
tell talking to his
granddaughter or something about

51
00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:24,520
the.
No, it's the lawyer.

52
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:26,800
Is it the lawyer?
That's that's just I put that

53
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,680
clip on Twitter.
I was like, this is on your

54
00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,600
favorite show?
You know, so I, I, I heard.

55
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,480
You met the the inspiration
behind one of the characters.

56
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,400
I met Australia's land man.
Who is he?

57
00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:39,520
Matt Hall.
Matt Hall.

58
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,680
Get wet.
Played golf with him, He's

59
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,480
non-stop.
Used to work in oil and gas too.

60
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:47,760
But he was Australia's land man,
yeah, for that, right, For oil

61
00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:49,760
and gas or food.
So we played a few games with

62
00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:54,840
the, the the get wet man and
made, he was the man that made

63
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,720
shit happen.
And he's transferred that oil

64
00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:02,120
and gas land man knowledge into
he is now the water bladder land

65
00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,280
man for for the mining industry.
So I tell you what she's got to

66
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,400
be a big bloody get wet blood a
year for 2024.

67
00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,880
I'm sorry mate.
I would say get your orders in

68
00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:14,480
quick but you don't need to
cause he'll just keep ordering.

69
00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,680
2,000,000 litre friggin get wet
bladders for you till the

70
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,480
friggin till the cows come on.
And there's no more.

71
00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,440
Water left to put in there.
Yeah, give Maddie Hall the land

72
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:24,880
man a call.
Ha ha.

73
00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,960
That sounded good, right?
Let's get to a clear core

74
00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,840
rumours with Rio.
Bloody big bloody super duper

75
00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,800
mega merger.
Is it true?

76
00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,560
Has it?
Has it been chatted about?

77
00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:38,400
What's the guy take me through a
voice.

78
00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:41,960
Pretty interesting, interesting
rumour to come back to, to work

79
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,040
to.
It's funny, I was like 3 days

80
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,360
ago, Bloomberg, they broke this
story.

81
00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:48,880
Big story.
Glencore and Rio Tinto have been

82
00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,880
discussing merging.
Yeah, which would be the largest

83
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,640
mining merger ever.
And it would create a company if

84
00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,880
the two companies did combine,
that would would be bigger than

85
00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,840
BHP in U.S. dollar terms.
Glencor is a $55 billion

86
00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,080
company, Rio's one one O 5
billion.

87
00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,800
And you create something that's,
yeah, it's like 20 odd billion

88
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,440
larger than than BHP if you if
you did it at nil premium, which

89
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:11,480
wouldn't happen.
But yeah.

90
00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,960
Assuming that kept the call.
There's a lot of assumptions,

91
00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:16,880
invitations, everything like
that.

92
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:18,600
But which way?
I got out of recently.

93
00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,120
Yeah.
Anyway, he's going to take me

94
00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:21,000
through.
It funny funny.

95
00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,800
The benchmark is always bigger
than BHP as if that were the

96
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,040
purpose before it.
So the the talks apparently are

97
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,040
not active at the moment, though
the company, well, not the

98
00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,080
companies, but it was reported
with people in the know as as a

99
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,040
journalist sort of say that
discussions happened throughout

100
00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,680
the second-half of last calendar
year aren't ongoing at the

101
00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,000
moment.
And a lot of the articles

102
00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,320
referenced the point that these
companies had been in

103
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,960
discussions about a decade ago
in 2014.

104
00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,840
So a couple other basic details.
Both the companies have London

105
00:04:52,840 --> 00:04:56,400
listings.
Rio obviously has the the group

106
00:04:56,400 --> 00:04:59,000
structure with the POC and the
limited with an Aussie listening

107
00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,160
to.
And you've also got to keep in

108
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:05,040
mind these UK takeover rules,
which we spoke at length about

109
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:10,600
when we're talking about BHB and
Anglo in the first half of last

110
00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,760
year.
That sort of references like

111
00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,800
when you can talk about a deal,
when you have to make an

112
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,640
approach and the quiet periods
and these sorts of things.

113
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,240
But as I said, pretty limited
information.

114
00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,640
Neither of the companies decided
to comment on it, but we will

115
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:27,680
dive into it regardless.
That that yeah, like decision

116
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,200
not to not to comment on the
rumor.

117
00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,840
Like that was noteworthy in and
of itself because both companies

118
00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:36,400
had an opportunity to address
the Bloomberg article on Friday,

119
00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,600
which is a trading day last
week.

120
00:05:38,840 --> 00:05:43,000
Neither of them did address it.
And it was it was subsequent to

121
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,400
neither of them addressing it
that it came out in a follow up

122
00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,480
article from Bloomberg that that
talks are not currently active.

123
00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:52,560
But it was a tell the fact that
there was no, no addressing it

124
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,080
for me at the company that
they're in a window of no

125
00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:59,400
talking because you know that
like given the takeover rules,

126
00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,360
you would address it if you're
in active discussions.

127
00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,400
So let's let's get into to who
might be instigating this and

128
00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,440
why slash kind of how the media
got their hands on this piece of

129
00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:12,240
knowledge.
We know there's always a kind of

130
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,440
reason behind it.
It was a big deal that the Anglo

131
00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,200
talks got leaked and they did.
Wasn't an ideal time.

132
00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:21,520
There's always a bit of a
motivation and you've got a bit

133
00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:22,720
of a theory behind this one,
Trev.

134
00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,240
Kind of I think you can pick up
some pieces and some clues and

135
00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,000
try and figure things out.
But I can know in general, if

136
00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,800
you're in a period of of like no
one going, like no current

137
00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,760
active discussions, but you have
had some previously, but you're

138
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,080
in a kind of a, you know, an ice
cold period or something like

139
00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,960
that.
Then you and then if you, if

140
00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,640
you're trying to instigate some
more discussions, but you

141
00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,600
haven't had too much luck trying
to reignite talks, then you can

142
00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,240
do the strategy of, of, of
leaking the fact that talks

143
00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:53,280
happened previously to try and
ignite reignite these

144
00:06:53,280 --> 00:06:55,640
discussions, right.
And I, and I had one observation

145
00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,200
on the, on the Bloomberg story
that did break when it first

146
00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,960
landed the byline looked like
this.

147
00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:03,960
So you can see the, the byline
there.

148
00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,760
And then a few days later they
changed the order of the journos

149
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,920
in the byline.
And if you're listening, not

150
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,200
watching, originally the
youngster Archie Hunter was

151
00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,800
listed first in the byline ahead
of more senior reporters Thomas

152
00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,480
Bush, Evil and and Dinesh Nair,
which to me would suggest the

153
00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,080
scoop was his.
We put him first was his scoop,

154
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,560
But then then he gets shuffled
to the back a few days later.

155
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,960
So if you look, if you look at
that same article today, he's

156
00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:30,240
he's there at the back, not the
front.

157
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,840
And I wonder if it might have
been too much of A tell who the

158
00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,360
sources were if Archie's name
led the byline and hence they

159
00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,840
shuffled him in back.
And the reason I say could have

160
00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,440
been too much of A tell is
because Archie reports on

161
00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:44,520
commodity traders only.
So maybe that narrows down

162
00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:46,840
things if you're trying to
introduce where the source of

163
00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,840
the leak may have come from.
I will.

164
00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:54,400
I will say Archie Hunter, sick
name for a journal that is up

165
00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:56,800
there with Elliott Rocket.
Well that is sick.

166
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,360
Archie Hunter, go you.
I don't care what.

167
00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:03,000
You're right.
All right, before we dive into a

168
00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,480
potential combination and any
couple of thoughts on that,

169
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,120
let's start.
Let's take a peek at the

170
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:09,920
shareholder returns, total
shareholder returns over the

171
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,080
past few years for the two
companies, as well as a few

172
00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,040
other majors out there to give a
bit of a comparison to it.

173
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:21,560
So no secret, 2024 was a pretty
disappointing year for commodity

174
00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,880
businesses.
Glencore down 23%.

175
00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:28,880
You can see on the chart here,
Rio down 14%, zoom out a bit

176
00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,120
over five years, Glencore's
total shareholder return.

177
00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,960
So talking about share price
plus your returns, whether that

178
00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:42,200
be dividends, special dividends,
these sorts of things is 95% and

179
00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,320
that edges out Rio who delivered
65% over the same period.

180
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:50,200
Zooming out a bit more though,
Glencore's total shareholder

181
00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:55,760
return is 28% from when they
listed in May of 2011.

182
00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,680
That is pretty disappointing.
So we've we've often spoken

183
00:08:59,680 --> 00:09:01,840
about the fact that Glencore is
cheap.

184
00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:06,280
Glencore has great management.
All these kind of points that's,

185
00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,240
you know, commonly cited in, in
the world that we kind of

186
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,240
operate in.
People love to to praise their

187
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,240
management, their kind of
counter cyclical contrarian

188
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,040
thinking, but it hasn't been a
great ride for for shareholders.

189
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:24,720
We saw the interesting kind of
activism in March of last year

190
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,760
with Fredbecker was kind of
welcomed mostly by other

191
00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,680
shareholders and and so on.
But that all has to do with the

192
00:09:31,680 --> 00:09:35,960
fact that shareholder returns
have not been that good so.

193
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,560
And buddy, it, it was the last
quarter of last year, it really

194
00:09:39,560 --> 00:09:42,160
dove back off because you can
see there they were tracking

195
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:46,120
pretty relative to BHP and then
yeah, Gonski's and they're

196
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,640
pretty much backed down to where
they were before Tribeca went

197
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,280
activist.
Especially when you compare it

198
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:53,400
to.
Prices came off a lot.

199
00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,120
Yeah.
And copper, yeah.

200
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,880
Yeah.
But even relative to their their

201
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,040
commodities that they produce,
they they disappointed, you

202
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,400
know, so it was a it was a bad
year and all of commodity

203
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:10,920
companies versus the indexes
versus other sectors out there

204
00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:14,200
which generalist investors play
in, you know, it was pretty bad.

205
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:18,040
A lot of them tore quite a bit
higher. 2024 was mostly a

206
00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,320
Goodyear for for generalists and
other sorts of investors which

207
00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:25,240
just made the the under
underperformance more kind of

208
00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:29,120
stark in its in its nature so.
The the 20% TSR since the 2011

209
00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,720
listing probably doesn't capture
the real ride for most Glencore

210
00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,800
shareholders because most like
the just you know when they

211
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:37,960
listed.
That was a wonderful liquidity

212
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,000
event for the owners of the
business.

213
00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:45,120
So you look at 20/15/2016 and
that TSR is -80 some percent,

214
00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:46,440
yeah, so.
You had a bit of a debt

215
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,440
kerfuffle there and and the
trading business has been down

216
00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:50,800
there.
No, you don't have enormous

217
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,680
multiple and that kind of traded
and then it's been a grind

218
00:10:54,680 --> 00:10:56,800
since.
But let's talk about valuations,

219
00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:01,120
right?
Because the, the fact that a lot

220
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,000
of shareholders of Glencore
point to is that even against

221
00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,800
other peers, bearing in mind
that they have this marketing

222
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,680
business, this commodity trading
business, the foundation of the

223
00:11:10,680 --> 00:11:13,760
business, it it's glaringly kind
of cheap.

224
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:17,120
It trades on a very weak
multiple, right?

225
00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,880
Big time, 100%.
I think I looked at the numbers

226
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:26,320
and I got like it was on 26
forecast EBITDA.

227
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:33,560
It was like trade on 3.9 * 26.
Yeah, estimates, which is like

228
00:11:33,560 --> 00:11:36,520
bottom of the barrel, the second
lowest verse, the only one, the

229
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,600
only, you know, major, the lower
multiple is violate because

230
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,520
they've got the Brazil factor.
But when you've got a trading

231
00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:45,360
business which should command,
you know, represents a good

232
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,440
chunk of earnings, should
command a much higher multiple

233
00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,720
than a standard mining business.
Yeah, it's, it's a pretty,

234
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,360
pretty big, not multiple, Yeah,
for a robust business.

235
00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,520
Never mind to listen to to
podcasts talking about other

236
00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:58,600
sectors and they're talking
about revenue multiples and all

237
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,520
this sort of nonsense.
IT Rd. tech Maybe we started a a

238
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,520
podcast in the wrong industry.
Yeah, Jesus Christ, that might

239
00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,320
be a natural home for we right
up my alley.

240
00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:14,040
So let's talk about what why the
businesses should kind of merge

241
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,680
and you know, I think we can
flash a bit of a different light

242
00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,760
to to what other media
organizations took to this one.

243
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:22,960
I think there was, you know, I
thought it was relatively light

244
00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,960
on in news given the potential
significance of a deal like

245
00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,800
this.
There actually wasn't that much

246
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,120
discussion about it out there.
Granted it's it's early stages

247
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:32,520
and all these sorts of things,
but maybe.

248
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,920
Is it early stages but because I
I heard in WhatsApp that it was

249
00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,920
called off last year.
Yeah, yeah, I think that's

250
00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,200
that's the the the read through
it even in the the second

251
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,600
Bloomberg article is that, you
know, there were some

252
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,520
discussions.
It was kind of yeah, put a nice

253
00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,720
and hence.
I meant that in advanced far in

254
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,720
that sense, but.
Yeah.

255
00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,240
I mean merits.
Never lies.

256
00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:58,240
Yeah, reference what's
happening?

257
00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,320
Do you do you question on will I
merge?

258
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,600
I actually like, I want to
comment this from from the

259
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:07,240
perspective of a Glencore,
Glencore shareholder, not a

260
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,720
shareholder.
I've thought about it a lot and,

261
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,480
and if there was a major that I
wanted to put money into, like

262
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,880
Glencore is the one that I'd be
most inclined to do it.

263
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,360
But if I, if I own Glencore
stock and I wake up to the news

264
00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:21,960
that there's a potential
combination with Rio Tinto at

265
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,160
the current share price, I'm not
thrilled at all.

266
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:28,720
I'd be pretty disappointed.
I'd be like, I'd be a bit

267
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,080
frustrated.
And that's not to say there

268
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,640
isn't some merit to this.
We'll get to that.

269
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,560
But the reason I'd be frustrated
is this, of all, of all the

270
00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:39,600
majors, Glencore is the only
one, the only one, in my

271
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,280
opinion, when management truly
does think like owners and they

272
00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,000
are owners and to progress at
that firm, you've got to be

273
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,840
brilliant and they're cutthroat.
And they truly do have people

274
00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:52,720
who just get capital allocation
at like multiple levels of that

275
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,160
firm.
It's, it's kind of like, you

276
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,560
know, if you're a high
performance driven kind of

277
00:13:57,560 --> 00:14:01,280
person and you know, you want to
get rich, but you also want to

278
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,360
be remunerated, you know how to
think really well, like Glencoe

279
00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,680
is the place for you and you can
excel there.

280
00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:09,280
And they've got a bunch of
brilliant people who really,

281
00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,040
really get capital allocation.
Notwithstanding, though, capital

282
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:13,880
returns have not been great over
the last year, like you said.

283
00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:15,680
Makes it all the more
interesting.

284
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,680
Exactly the, you know, For
example, think of the

285
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:24,360
acquisition of Elk Valley
Resources when that happened,

286
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,840
you know, not all that long ago.
The way they pulled that off, no

287
00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,040
other major could have been as
nimble, as aggressive, as

288
00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:33,960
strategic to get that deal done
to, you know, go hostile at a

289
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,360
time of the year when when, you
know, everyone else is kind of

290
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,720
switched off.
I think it was around like just

291
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,400
after BMO.
They come out of this big deck,

292
00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,240
you know, Gary Nagle's just like
talking about the merit of Glen

293
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:46,400
Tech and what do they come away
with?

294
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,120
They picked up values, you know,
pretty amazing, kind of an

295
00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:51,440
outcome.
I don't think any other major

296
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,680
could have performed or
manoeuvred in the way that they

297
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,880
did.
And and yet you look at

298
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,880
Glencore's multiple and like we
said, it was like 4 times or 3.9

299
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:04,600
* 26 EBITDA, like 4-4 times
EBITDA just bought a good chunk

300
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:05,880
of the earnings from the trading
business.

301
00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,080
It's kind of kind of crazy.
But if I was a Glencore

302
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,960
shareholder, I'm frustrated that
there's a possibility the

303
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:16,480
business could be engulfed by
into a bureaucratic bloated Rio

304
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,480
Tinto while there is some low
hanging fruit out there for

305
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:25,520
Glencore to rewrite to a much
more appropriate valuation, you

306
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,360
know, before doing before doing
something like that.

307
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,360
So what's the low hanging fruit
like?

308
00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,160
I think these are the low
hanging fruit in my mind to, to

309
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,800
just deliver shareholder value
in a shortage period of time,

310
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:37,640
deliver the balance sheet.
This is just a time thing, you

311
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,800
know, Elk Valley earnings will
pay down the debt over time.

312
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,240
You've got the lowest cost, you
know, met call, highest quality

313
00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,240
met call portfolio in the world.
Like let let us do its thing.

314
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,760
It'll pay down that debt.
Second point, actually deliver

315
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,640
Argentina on the copper side.
That's like a big value creator

316
00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,600
on the copper side that the
market just doesn't believe yet,

317
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,440
but it's real.
They've got some fantastic

318
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,960
growth projects in Argentina
that aren't talked about, not

319
00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:03,560
kind of part of its value.
So they can, you know, put more

320
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:05,680
work out into the best so that
the market can understand that

321
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,840
better.
This is a a big one.

322
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,440
Read domicile the listing to the
New York Stock Exchange.

323
00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,200
Europe is dead.
London listings for mining dead.

324
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,760
There's no capital there.
Go to the go to New York, get

325
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:21,600
your S&P like index inclusion
like and that's where you get

326
00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,360
the healthy multiples in in our
in our industry.

327
00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,640
It's harsh, but it's it's true.
And the 4th 1 and I remember

328
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,440
this one from Tribeca's activist
push.

329
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,440
You could sell down a minority
stake in their trading business

330
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,560
to a sovereign wealth fund at a,
you know, pretty healthy

331
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:37,760
multiple.
And that lets the rest of the

332
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,800
market get a see through value
on what the value of that

333
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,640
trading business should be.
And then your whole your whole

334
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,680
business, brokers and everything
just sort of rewrite what value

335
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,320
of the business is.
So those four things are all

336
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,760
completely achievable over like
a two to three-year timeline.

337
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,440
And what's the rewrite from
achieving all of that?

338
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:56,800
I'd venture to say it's pretty
substantial.

339
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,880
And if you're a Glencore
shareholder, you're holding the

340
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,040
stock anticipating them to
execute on the low hanging fruit

341
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,560
because it's a highly capable
team and, and a stock that you

342
00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,520
know, appears to not be
reflecting what full value

343
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,640
should be there.
I doubt you'd want to see the

344
00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:15,079
business rolled into Rio Jinto
when the when the share price is

345
00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:17,800
£3.80.
Like you deliver the low hanging

346
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,920
fruit and then then explore
deals if it's, you know, if it's

347
00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,480
there to be done.
But I'll also give them the

348
00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,480
benefit of the doubt because
maybe there's a lot more than

349
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,400
meets the eye here.
Like the whole rationale for

350
00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:29,000
doing a deal.
There might be some, you know,

351
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,640
3D chess going on that just
isn't so apparent from a like

352
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,160
Bloomberg Article 2.
Yeah, I'd I'd sort of hesitant

353
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,040
against talking too much out of
school because I'm sure there's

354
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:39,920
more than much more than meets
the eye.

355
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,040
The Third Point is super
interesting, redomiciling the

356
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:48,120
business listing on the NYC,
people always talk about just

357
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:51,160
getting the S&P 500, get the
index inclusions, get the

358
00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,680
passive money and the share
price will look after itself.

359
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,000
They don't even talk about
making the business a Better

360
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,280
Business.
They just think you can do that

361
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,240
and a little look after itself.
It wasn't that long ago that

362
00:18:03,360 --> 00:18:06,520
Gary Nagle said we're pretty
comfortable in London.

363
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,640
I think the, the complexities
and the risks don't weigh

364
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,080
outweigh the costs of doing
that.

365
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,440
Who knows, they could be working
on it in the background all all

366
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,560
the same.
But it is a super interesting

367
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:19,720
one that's been around for quite
some time.

368
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,040
That's not something that's just
happened overnight.

369
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,280
It's it's been a factor.
People have been asking this

370
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,920
question for years now.
Completely agree with the other

371
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:29,920
points.
Net debt last time I looked, I

372
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,320
think pro forma assuming
everything kind of is done sits

373
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:38,400
at about $10.5 billion and
that's taking into account Elk

374
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:39,800
Valley and everything that's
just happened.

375
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,640
I think it's a matter of time
before earnings help pay that

376
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,360
one down.
Vitera, that sort of deal kind

377
00:18:45,360 --> 00:18:47,720
of closing and they get another
billion dollars in and things

378
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:51,160
kind of improve on that side of
things.

379
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,600
And yeah, the, the trading
business, I mean, I think did

380
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,360
Trebeka say Berkshire Hathaway
should take a peek as well?

381
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,040
They did but.
And they also referenced coming

382
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:04,960
to the ASX actually not they did
not the NYSE.

383
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,320
But yeah, I I would say NYC is a
a well.

384
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:12,880
They say Julie Butler I American
and Australian listing.

385
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,280
I think down the track, yeah.
And not that they had any

386
00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,600
problem whether you pursue NYC,
I think they just had the

387
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,120
preference for ASX.
But I think both would have been

388
00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:26,320
a better outcome than the the
status quo that we see at the

389
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:30,200
moment.
But yeah, if if there is any

390
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,520
company that really has that
that backing behind management

391
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,200
that, you know, there's almost a
cult like as we've heard it

392
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,160
called it is Glencore and people
back the management team.

393
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,480
So hopefully they can deliver on
this and, and make it happen.

394
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,680
And let's see what the share
price is in in a little while.

395
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,760
Make it happen in What do you
mean make one happen?

396
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,200
That, you know, deliver on that
low hanging fruit as you as you

397
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,080
put it.
Do you think the bit of the 3D

398
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:58,960
chess is, if you look at Anglo
American for instance, is there

399
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,920
a bit of 3D chess going on that
maybe?

400
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,320
Glencore might want to tie up
with them instead of BHP because

401
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,440
imagine having 80 odd what's
that gives them 80% of

402
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,240
Colawassee that that becomes a
pretty big copper unit.

403
00:20:13,120 --> 00:20:16,040
Is there, you know, there was
talks, you know, we've

404
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,120
speculated before when BHP was
looking at Anglo, would Glencore

405
00:20:19,120 --> 00:20:22,000
get involved like as you said,
like it's as you said, being

406
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,480
gobbled up by Rio.
They're sort of, you know,

407
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:27,400
selling away that low hanging
fruit, whereas combining with

408
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,680
someone like Anglo where the
majority of Anglo's Navis, I

409
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:35,240
assume the copper that could
create a pretty big copper

410
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,440
powerhouse in South America.
You want, you want the Glencore

411
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,000
business to live on like you
want that management to stay in

412
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:42,360
place.
You want that trading business

413
00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:45,960
to be is fruitful and grow.
You don't want it to become

414
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:47,840
real.
You don't own that core for it.

415
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,440
You know what I mean?
Like, I think Anglo is a much

416
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:56,920
more compelling proposition.
My Intel has been that BHP has,

417
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:01,160
has had conversations with
Anglo's big shareholders and,

418
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:05,600
and Duncan's basically got like,
you know, I don't know how much

419
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,240
longer another 6 to 12 months
to, to sink or swim.

420
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,760
And, and if he's sinking, then
they'd be in favour of a BHP.

421
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,840
So it's probably, it's kind of
like BHP has kind of got their

422
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,080
foot on it.
They're the preferred people to

423
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:19,960
buy it at some point in time.
Like Duncan's either got to, you

424
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,240
know, make things hunky Dory or
or he's out the door and the

425
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,480
business is BHP is in one form
or another.

426
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,720
Yeah, Is that that's the only
link, isn't it?

427
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,920
It's colossi between Anglo and
Glencore.

428
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,000
So there are other bones lost
Broncos than that.

429
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,160
They're assets in which Glencore
and Anglo both have an

430
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,280
ownership.
Yeah, it's only colossi, isn't

431
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,520
it?
They're 41 percentage, I think.

432
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,680
Off the top of my head, yeah,
yeah, yeah And I find this this

433
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,680
notion of 3D or, you know, some
people, sometimes people say 5D

434
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,880
chess kind of interesting like,
you know, I've heard people say

435
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,160
they never want to be on the
other side of a negotiation with

436
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,720
with Glencore.
Very smart people, but well, he

437
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,520
was sort of thinking the same
about BHB.

438
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,360
And then it turns up it wasn't
really 3D chess they're playing

439
00:22:03,360 --> 00:22:04,680
at all.
They just butchered it.

440
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,840
They got it.
The timing all kind of wrong.

441
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,560
I think we, not that they're not
smart people, but we gave them a

442
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,880
lot of credit for how they kind
of thought out about it, thought

443
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,880
it out rather, and wasn't really
thought out.

444
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,400
So, so smart in the end.
Maybe it was the necessary step

445
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,440
to take in order to pick it up
18 months later.

446
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,360
Perhaps.
Yeah, hard to say.

447
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,000
Maybe, maybe they'll all just
stay separate forever and

448
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,360
they're just for all too
freaking big, but that'd be

449
00:22:27,360 --> 00:22:31,280
boring.
Well I mean dry blower made an

450
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,040
interesting comment.
He just put out an article I saw

451
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,720
just before we started recording
which I found actually quite

452
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:38,280
interesting.
I think it was headline time for

453
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,080
mega breakups, not mergers.
Sort of pushing forward the idea

454
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,720
of companies getting smaller
rather than the bigger.

455
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:49,280
And I mean a combined Glencore
and Rio Tinto with assets almost

456
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,120
every bloody continent would be
a nightmare to manage as well.

457
00:22:53,120 --> 00:22:55,640
If you look at it from the
owners perspective, you know,

458
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,880
the people with, with capital,
it's, it's harder to grow when

459
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800
you're just that enormous.
It's, it's great for management.

460
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,240
You can command a bigger
paycheck and everything as you

461
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:08,120
get bigger and bigger.
But a lot of the investors

462
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,560
rather have companies that are a
bit smaller where you can

463
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:14,120
actually grow and earn multiples
on your money as opposed to just

464
00:23:14,120 --> 00:23:16,400
that dividend every year.
So I thought it was a kind of

465
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,520
interesting, interesting premise
to to put forward.

466
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,960
They have a bit going on with
they got the Arcadium stuff deal

467
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,040
live at the moment, Rio within
the Rincon investment.

468
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,360
So they're going out lithium,
then Chuck a bloody merger with

469
00:23:30,360 --> 00:23:34,440
Glencore in there far out
that'll be going off it's head.

470
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:39,120
To your point, like spitting,
you know, I think Koala's

471
00:23:39,120 --> 00:23:42,360
rhetoric was that, you know, you
you could combine them, but then

472
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,120
you effectively have two
separate businesses. 1 is just

473
00:23:45,120 --> 00:23:49,360
like a bulks heavyweight with a
iron ore, the coal, the soap

474
00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:53,200
business and then and then base
and battery metals kind of

475
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:57,040
powerhouse as well as a as a
separate vehicle consideration.

476
00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,720
And like, because Rio, like Rio,
it produces more iron ore than

477
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,240
BHP.
Like they're very, very bloody

478
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,400
iron ore dependent.
And Samando coming on this year

479
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,480
as well.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

480
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,880
Yeah, the the last sort of
comment I'd make is a bit of a

481
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,600
push back on this idea that it's
all about copper.

482
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,920
I think a lot of people say that
and copper is integral, no doubt

483
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,240
about it, but there are so many
other moving pieces here.

484
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,720
So Rio do about 800,000 tons of
copper, Glencore about 1,000,000

485
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,480
tons of if you know simply just
push the two businesses

486
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,160
together.
The EBITDA is 20% copper, but I

487
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,360
still feel it's somewhat a bit
simplistic.

488
00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:40,400
There's there's so many other
motivations and incentives to to

489
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,560
doing a deal here, whether that
be liquidity for for some

490
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,200
shareholders, some bigger
shareholders there an

491
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,760
improvement in asset quality.
If you're looking at some of the

492
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,840
assets on the other side of the
fence, changes in the, the

493
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,800
multiple that you trade on all
these sorts of things.

494
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:01,120
I think there's multiple reasons
behind doing a deal that would

495
00:25:01,120 --> 00:25:06,400
be as complex as this.
And yeah, I think the it's all

496
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,840
about copper is not not the
whole truth.

497
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,280
It's like feels like lazy
reporting when you read.

498
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,120
Anyway, thoughts?
Who?

499
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:18,520
Knows.
Who knows?

500
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,800
Who knows, but we've got a year
to figure it out until

501
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,400
Christmas.
Yeah, yeah.

502
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,520
Got white?
These, I think it's a fair dance

503
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:27,440
ahead.
Yeah.

504
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,640
So in that year, Maddie there it
could be a bit more to this

505
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:33,440
story.
Between the four of them, very

506
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:37,120
hard, Glencore, Anglo, BHP in
whatever combination.

507
00:25:37,360 --> 00:25:39,520
Yeah, we're going.
To be talking about them a lot

508
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,480
this year I.
Reckon and it's it's that's if

509
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,800
you just like zoom out as well,
right like dry blaze advocating

510
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,520
the separate.
I, I think the theme here is, is

511
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,480
the opposite in a big way.
Like the, we've seen mega

512
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,280
mergers in a long time in our
industry.

513
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:57,320
And, and in the last last like
12 months, we've had, you know,

514
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,520
now, now pretty legitimate
rumours of consolidation of, of,

515
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,680
of four of the largest kind of,
you know, diversified miners.

516
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,160
We've got into two.
Neither of them have eventuated

517
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,280
yet, but that, that there is
reflective obviously of, of

518
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,240
pricing.
These things happen in waves

519
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,240
and, and, and the internal
thinking I think amongst these

520
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,280
like major miners is that the
best use of capital allocation

521
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,360
is to to acquire growth of
current multiples as opposed to

522
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,480
invest in in in new, new mines
where cost blower and all that

523
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:28,400
sort of stuff.
That's what they say.

524
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:29,720
I'll.
Get lucky find in one.

525
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,880
Well, but even getting lucky
like building The thing is, is

526
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,240
the headache like buying it far
and away exceeds.

527
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,560
And I do think if you step back
like, yeah, this is a wave of of

528
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,640
mega deals and stuff.
But stepping back there has been

529
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,480
a bit of a hollowing out of
that, that middle sort of group

530
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,640
of companies.
There's the really big guys and

531
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,160
then there's the single digit
billion market cap.

532
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,680
No, no, it goes it goes, Trump
meme coin.

533
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,040
They're the really big guys
then.

534
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:03,520
Oh God we can talk again.
WhatsApp fucked me up there.

535
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,040
I tried to put money into my
Binance account but it must have

536
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,200
been the wrong Binance to buy
some trump coin.

537
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,440
Now my credit cards fucking
cancelled because it was like.

538
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,560
Must have been a dodgy Binance.
At least we got.

539
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,120
Effectively, I'd save money
because I didn't get defrauded

540
00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:17,280
at.
Least we got to hear the hold

541
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:18,920
music for a couple of hours this
morning.

542
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,160
Blair and the old 2000 students.
Oh, very good.

543
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:24,560
Well, plenty more of that's come
now.

544
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,960
News segment 6° of separation
between something.

545
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:32,040
Tell me, Maddie.
Inspired by the great Directors

546
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:35,320
special this morning,
moneyofmine.com, everyone go

547
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:37,480
subscribe there.
The newsletter is back.

548
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:42,120
There was some very depressed
people and one of them about to

549
00:27:42,120 --> 00:27:44,400
mention here actually, that
weren't wasn't getting the

550
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,720
directors special for a month.
Is it the one they named the

551
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,680
cyclone after?
Well, and look, I'll just write

552
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,840
out this headline from high
graded build reports.

553
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,000
Authority closed the ports of
Dampier, Ashburton, Veranis

554
00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:01,160
Island and Cape Preston, W late
Sunday as Tropical Cyclone Sean

555
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:06,400
formed off the coast.
Mate Tropical Cyclone Sean now

556
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:11,080
that is named Sean for a reason
lads did you know that it is

557
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:16,320
named after Sean Russo?
Cause a tropical cyclone is a

558
00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:20,000
reminder.
Sean Russo being part of Noah's

559
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,720
rule, who are the hedging
experts in our industry as

560
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:29,680
cyclones are a reminder to all
bloody miners to you need to

561
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:33,520
hedge the impacts of cyclones.
Yeah, and which means you should

562
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:36,600
be hedged against any negative
impact on your business.

563
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,360
Hedging is another word for
insurance and CRE Insurance are

564
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:42,400
the best insurance brokers in
the business.

565
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,560
You can.
There's more 6° of separation.

566
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,360
You connect to the cyclone to
CRE insurance.

567
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,000
I connected that to Dave
Harrison being in Perth this

568
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:55,040
week, the CRE insurance bloody
legend.

569
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:57,720
And Steve Tarr is always in
Perth.

570
00:28:58,080 --> 00:28:59,400
He can.
Smell the cyclone.

571
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:05,680
They need to get a CRE symbol in
the sky like the bat signal to

572
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,920
that miners get to shine when
they need protection.

573
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,560
So.
Preferably, do it the day you

574
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,160
know, more than a day before the
cyclone comes, right shine.

575
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,360
Call them up right now.
Yeah, exactly.

576
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,000
Business interruption, they're
gonna be damaged, That's what.

577
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:20,880
That's what insurance is for.
That's what, yeah.

578
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,480
Maybe there's a fucking mega
merger, Noah's rule and CRE

579
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,120
insurance.
Enjoy your bets.

580
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,720
Good on your CRE.
That's right on air funding.

581
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,400
Yeah.
This is huge.

582
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,560
Never fucking heard of them.
Did all I think I heard of them

583
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,280
last year.
Are they pretty big?

584
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:42,760
About 1/2 a billion market,
Yeah, Do you?

585
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:47,000
Remember Joe Lowry asking us
what when you know about it?

586
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,960
Oh.
Yeah, still don't know anything,

587
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,320
Joe.
Yeah, these boys do.

588
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:53,720
I'm coming from a long way back,
but I thought, I thought the

589
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,240
news is pretty interesting.
Yeah.

590
00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,400
So, so on here, they're
developing the Rhyolite Ridge

591
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:06,600
lithium Boron project in Nevada
and the US Department of Energy

592
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:12,480
has committed get a hold of this
number US $996,000,000 in a in a

593
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:17,120
in a loan for the development.
That's up 268 million from their

594
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,520
conditional commitment two years
ago.

595
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:19,440
God.
That's bloody.

596
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,360
Any ABBA should get their hands
on a bit of that too.

597
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,160
It's amazing.
They've outdone any ABBA.

598
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,680
Yeah, the like the, so here's
the terms.

599
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,240
It was like concessional
finance.

600
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,360
You get great, a bit of, you
know, great terms.

601
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,160
This is 20 year tenor at an
interest rate fixed to the long

602
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:33,040
dated U.S.
Treasury.

603
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,680
So it's, it's, it's as good as
it gets on a, on a, you know,

604
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,720
concessionary finance basis.
I only showed up 20% on the

605
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,360
news, but the line's still got a
few conditions to meet.

606
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,280
The interesting one to me is the
condition for Subarnier

607
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:50,480
Stillwater to fund.
It's US $490 million for its for

608
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,400
its 50% share of Royal Light
Ridge.

609
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:57,080
This was agreed a long time ago
and and it's an interesting

610
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,960
conundrum for Subarnier.
Their stock has been in the

611
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,600
gutter for reasons we've
discussed before.

612
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,640
The balance sheet is in as bad
of shape is it is it as it can

613
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,000
get the in U.S. dollars the
market cap is only 2.5 billion

614
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:15,600
so funding if 490 would would be
20% of its market cap.

615
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:20,240
The strangest thing to think
about so this this the agreement

616
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,000
for Sabania to step up US
490,000,000 for a 50% non

617
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,320
operating interest in the
project.

618
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,360
Meanwhile, the operator Iron Ear
has a market cap in U.S. dollars

619
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,600
of just 300 million.
So they've got to pay 63% more

620
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,000
than the value of Iron Ear for
an equivalent share of the

621
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,760
project.
And you don't even get to be

622
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:40,720
operator of it, which is kind of
a challenging funding

623
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,960
proposition for Sobarno to sell
to their shareholders is a word.

624
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,280
The use of their their capital,
you know, when you can get a CS3

625
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,360
value in in that sense, not
saying it's a would be a bad use

626
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,520
of the capital, like that's all
project dependent and future

627
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,120
related, but it's a hard sell,
especially when your own balance

628
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:58,160
sheet is really, really
distressed.

629
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,760
And the PGM market is is where
it is right now.

630
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:04,400
I think, you know, like for them
to to commit to that, I'll get

631
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,200
some funding in place to commit
to that.

632
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:12,960
It's you kind of need the PGM
market to turn before you could

633
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:14,880
say that.
Or maybe they sell down their

634
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,920
stake good or maybe they
offloaded entirely.

635
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:21,680
But yeah, it's a fascinating one
for for Officer Barnier.

636
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,760
It's and it's an interesting
announcement for for Ania and

637
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,680
we'll follow the development of
of Rilight Ridge.

638
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,880
Well, the the best indication
that the PGM market is sort of

639
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,920
the turn around is really
elongated is the fact that

640
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,640
Russell Delroy predicted it two
years in a row.

641
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,200
He had to predict it again
because he at the end of the

642
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,680
Fundy predictions.
I think it was PGM the year,

643
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:43,520
Palladium the year before,
wasn't it the year?

644
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:49,640
Before he he predicted some oil
and gas stuffed Yeah, I.

645
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,880
Thought he is, we did have a big
chat with Kev in I want to say

646
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:55,800
Feb of.
Last year we had Rusty Inc.

647
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:56,800
That's when he came out.
He was.

648
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,400
PGM polite, yeah.
We spoke a good bit about flats.

649
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:04,520
Around and up to a year, yeah.
We're rooting for you, Rusty.

650
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,760
Sipania is a funny company
though it.

651
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:08,880
Is so.
Funny all the assets they have.

652
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,120
That is a weird weird Nish mash
PGMS bit of gold.

653
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,680
Yep, exactly got these.
Like.

654
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:19,320
That's a in Australia copper.
Giant with a big rehab bit thing

655
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:20,880
on it.
Bit of uranium.

656
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,760
They're spread across Australia,
North America and South Africa

657
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,680
and.
Because it's like NYSE listed,

658
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,800
you can buy bloody call options
and put options and all that

659
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,840
sort of stuff like so it can do,
it can be real volatile,

660
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:34,520
especially like it's so geared
and.

661
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:37,760
Yeah, Wacky 1.
PGM price changes PGM price

662
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:39,880
change a little bit and the
stock just goes bonkers.

663
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:41,520
It could.
Be Glencore Sabania.

664
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:44,640
Yeah, I.
Think there's a fifth player?

665
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,160
They've had some troubles in
South Africa, but I think

666
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,840
they're trying to repair, repair
the relationships, yeah.

667
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,320
You boys are.
You boys are gonna you go soon?

668
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,560
Yeah, when he's there.
He's we'll be next week.

669
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,320
We'll be in the post code.
They'll be in the district.

670
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,520
Give the boys, give the boys a
hoohah in in Darba.

671
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,040
He's going Bush.
Go to the Congo or something.

672
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,520
We are are.
You going to the Congo?

673
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,600
We are going to the.
Congo, the DRC, not the it's two

674
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,880
Congos.
We're going to the Democratic

675
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,320
Republic, much bigger one.
The JC.

676
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,760
The Good Congo I.
Don't know consensus changes on

677
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:25,480
which ones the good Congo?
Stay tuned in a month soon.

678
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,120
Right, they at JC can get used
to running the whole thing by

679
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:29,679
themselves if if needed.
Yeah.

680
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,719
All right, let's get into the
Goldies.

681
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,480
It's a bit abnant.
Let's bring it back into

682
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,360
onshore.
Mega mergers to me aren't that

683
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,560
big compared to Real and
Glencore, but is there any going

684
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,400
to happen in this list?
Who knows, right?

685
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,719
Let's have a look.
Oh, let's bring up the old chart

686
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,639
from a year and the last three
months.

687
00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:50,320
See how the Goldies are
performing the standouts.

688
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,199
As you could see Holy Snap and
Duck sheet.

689
00:34:52,199 --> 00:34:55,679
Have a look at Catalyst. 500% in
one year.

690
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,960
Amazing.
Huge the Menorah Banda, the I

691
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,640
guess the high, the the
rebirths, the high cost

692
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:06,280
producers and it like they're
the ones that really absolutely

693
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,800
pumped it.
Genesis up 83%.

694
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,760
So for for the people just
listening to the party.

695
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,520
Just go to the YouTube video and
watch it just it'll be heaps

696
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,160
easier. 12 month performance of
all the the share prices of you

697
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:21,320
know all the all the Classics,
Capricorn, Genesis and so on of

698
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,720
those producing Goldies, pretty
much all based in Perth.

699
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:31,600
Capricorn up another 66% bloody
WAP 73 now we'll go to the

700
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:34,480
Where's me three months 1 going.
Oh, it's there somewhere.

701
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,800
Let's have a look at.
So they've pretty much there's a

702
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,240
few pre quarterlies been out,
few actual quarterlies.

703
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,640
Let's go through them.
There's been some real good

704
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,120
ones.
There's been some OK, been some

705
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:50,600
that are a bit bad.
And a big Ding Ding Ding JC,

706
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:51,880
probably.
What's GC?

707
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,960
What are you, Genesis and Wharf?
Genesis and Wharf for JC.

708
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,320
I've got a couple of Ding Ding
Dings.

709
00:35:58,320 --> 00:35:59,480
I'll get to them when I get
there.

710
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,360
I've got I've started my own
hedge fund, CFT trading hedge

711
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:04,640
fund.
I figured it out.

712
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,800
I was told to stress test it for
a year.

713
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:08,920
Yeah, but that would not be
true.

714
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,360
Matt Michael's style.
Just count because if I was

715
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:12,880
instead.
You've gone on with leverage

716
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,880
right off the bat.
Well, if it's hedged, it's all

717
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,160
good.
There's no leverage unless they

718
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,640
both go the wrong way, which I
guarantee that'll happen the

719
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,960
first time.
But anyway, because imagine, if

720
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,280
you imagine if you're doing a
demo camp for a year and you

721
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,880
made fuck loads.
I just wouldn't get over that.

722
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:32,040
So I'd rather lose lose for real
life right.

723
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:35,000
First off, first cup off the
rank genesis.

724
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,280
They've actually so on the back
of after starting the restarting

725
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,680
the life of the mill back up had
a bloody pretty good quarter.

726
00:36:41,720 --> 00:36:45,320
So gold, gold production 57,000
oz.

727
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,800
Remember some of that is coming
from just the stockpiles that

728
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:54,680
the old mount Morgan's mill.
But and I suppose the the stand

729
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,400
out.
Where'd me thing go?

730
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:57,720
Where am I?
I'm back.

731
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:01,840
I'm back but Ulysses first start
fight at Ulysses.

732
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,000
So that's up and gone.
Looking on track to meet their

733
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:11,360
200,000 oz guidance.
The the Gwalia mill is full at

734
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,120
one point they're getting one
point because they got you know,

735
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,440
had Admiral going through there.
They got Ulysses adding to it

736
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,400
now Guile is still ticking
along.

737
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:22,560
So yeah, I've actually finally
got to that 1.4 million ton

738
00:37:23,240 --> 00:37:27,720
mark.
So cash build of 96,000,000 but

739
00:37:28,720 --> 00:37:33,160
before investing 31.9 million in
growth and exploration, so added

740
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,400
added 60 bucks worth to the
balance sheet.

741
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,600
So they're finally, finally made
a bit of bit of cash.

742
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,760
So pretty, pretty well exposed
to the gold price They got they

743
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:47,640
got the one of the they got the
more funky hedge arrangements.

744
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,400
They got four and half 1000
ounces of Ford sales, but they

745
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,360
got those the 0 cost collars,
which I'll show here.

746
00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:55,080
They've also got some put
options.

747
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,800
So they're pretty close to
bloody unhedged, but they got a

748
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:02,080
bit of protection.
So hence why they sold it, you

749
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,640
know, a bit over 4000 bucks an
ounce.

750
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,400
Another hint that come as well,
which wasn't disclosed before.

751
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,200
They've signed all purchase
agreements with Bright Star and

752
00:38:13,240 --> 00:38:16,560
Kumarina Resources.
I think they're a private one,

753
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,040
Kumarina.
So that would indicate that

754
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,880
Bright Star are going to send
about half a million ton from

755
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,600
Second Fortune up to the
Laverton mill, which I don't

756
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:29,440
think was disclosed before.
So anyway, so they chucked

757
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,560
700,000 tonne at .7 through
that.

758
00:38:31,720 --> 00:38:34,280
So they're pretty much running
close to 3,000,000 tonne already

759
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,160
through the Mount Morgan's mill.
So they're, you know, what's

760
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,920
that 4.4 million tonne of
processing capacity they got

761
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,080
now?
So, and we'll get to later will

762
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,800
you know, will they need the
King of the Hills mill?

763
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:51,240
Don't know, don't know.
Maybe, maybe not options Regis

764
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:57,800
bloody in harvest mode 149.
Let's just say 150 bucks worth

765
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,520
of free cash added.
So they got up to 530 bucks

766
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:06,000
worth of cash and then paid off
the did the bullet payment early

767
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:10,200
for the $300.00 line that was
owed as part of the Tropicana

768
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,400
acquisition.
So they're now sitting at

769
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:15,800
around.
I'm not sure if there was, yeah,

770
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,480
it should be 300 and next.
I think they're paying interest

771
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,160
as well.
Before that should be about

772
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,880
though.
They got about 220 odd million

773
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,280
sitting in the bank now and
unhedged.

774
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:31,360
So they're fucking ticking along
nicely.

775
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:37,080
Remelius now that 174.5
underlying free cash flow

776
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,960
because they topped up their
Spartan investments.

777
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,640
So they've now got 20% of
Spartan.

778
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,520
Yep, that's bloody, you know,
300 bucks worth of Spartan

779
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:50,400
shares they got in the Kitty and
cash and gold of 500 million.

780
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,520
Yeah, 43,000,000.
So they're so because they're

781
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,520
getting, they're getting like a
double sugar hit now because

782
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,760
they're still got penny gum.
But then they've got Q the old

783
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:03,760
Usgrave as well coming in as
well.

784
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,240
So that's that's started.
So the other and there they're

785
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:08,840
going to I think that started
mid quarter.

786
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,880
So they're going to have a full
quarter of both.

787
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,720
Yep, going.
So it'll be yeah, interesting to

788
00:40:13,720 --> 00:40:17,120
see when Penny finishes if
they're going to poke around a

789
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,400
bit more to see if they're they
can drag that out a bit.

790
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,600
Yeah, not sure, but that's a
they like thin high grade.

791
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,400
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That'll that'll be one of the

792
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,440
most motivated to do a deal, I
think, because you don't want,

793
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,000
you don't want your production
coming off so fast as when the

794
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,120
sugar ends, you know?
Yeah, yeah, who knows?

795
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:43,520
Who knows, it might not be the
logical 1 because I don't know

796
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,080
how big they're going to pay up
Heard like other ones.

797
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:50,280
The the the carousel damn deal
of her heard on the golf course.

798
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,720
1 to 1 1/2 bill required for
that.

799
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,640
That was on the golf course.
That's just as reliable as

800
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,080
WhatsApp.
Gotcha if you get.

801
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,000
Rid on the golf course, that's
our price which I thought I

802
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,400
thought one would be unders but.
The gold price has gone up so

803
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,960
much, it's like I that number
seems reasonable in my head.

804
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,600
Like, yeah.
Yeah, and I think the I think

805
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:13,880
memory Karasu had like a there's
a sugar hit period they're

806
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,000
probably getting to the end of
and then it's probably now

807
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,560
getting to the point like there
needs a lot of mine life

808
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,920
extension.
So maybe you know that one to

809
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,280
1/2 is reasonable even though
it's not going to produce it

810
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,680
what it's producing forever.
So yeah, a few balls in the air

811
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:32,840
there, Capricorn, the kid out
bloody market darling.

812
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:36,280
Remember the last last quarter
we said, you know, grade dropped

813
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,440
off had to do a lot more
material movement.

814
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:42,960
So it looks like it did recover.
Grade lifted back up to .88, a

815
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:46,880
stonking .8g per ton.
But right look at look at the

816
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,240
bloody cost that they produce.
It's freaking unbelievable.

817
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:51,840
And the material mine dropped
back down.

818
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:56,080
So they, but you tend to say
once a quarterly, actual

819
00:41:56,080 --> 00:42:00,840
quarterly comes out that a cash
build of 31 mil and then they

820
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,960
had some CapEx expenditure from
Mount Gibson.

821
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:05,960
I think I figured out that was
about 6,000,000.

822
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,840
So they've added 25, but they're
effectively and they're on hedge

823
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,520
in the quarter because that's
all sort of being kicked down

824
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,800
the road.
So I'll be interested to see if

825
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:20,440
where's the little chart going.
They still they've got some,

826
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,520
they've got 16.
So you can see the hedging kicks

827
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:27,720
back in from December 2025.
That's all been kicked down from

828
00:42:27,720 --> 00:42:31,880
there.
But it says they've got a 6700

829
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:38,160
oz sold gold call option with a
strike price of 2260 per oz with

830
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:43,600
an expiry date of 30th of June
2025 S And my understanding is

831
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:48,920
that whoever owns that call
option can call on that at any

832
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,960
point before 30th of June.
So I'm not sure if oh.

833
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,360
It's an American style.
Yeah, I've.

834
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:57,280
Shot it as opposed to it.
I don't think it has.

835
00:42:57,720 --> 00:42:59,760
It can get called upon before
30th of June.

836
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,760
It doesn't expire then.
So I'm not sure if some of that

837
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,320
was called upon or not because
it just looks unhedged and the

838
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:10,600
metrics lift and it looked like
things were they would have made

839
00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:12,760
a bit more money.
So not sure we'll see.

840
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:14,200
Yeah.
See in the quarter.

841
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,440
It's been CapEx doing strip or
anything like that?

842
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,200
Yeah, possibly.
I bet it.

843
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:26,880
But it said it said cash bill
from operations of 31 mil before

844
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,200
the CapEx at Mount Gibson.
Yeah.

845
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,960
But they that might, they might
have been CapEx at in our winter

846
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,400
as well or the commencement of
the expansion possibly.

847
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:37,600
Yeah.
The next year should have a fair

848
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:41,240
bit of CapEx expansion plus,
yeah, Mount Gibson.

849
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,680
So yeah, we'll see.
Anyway, that's sitting in the

850
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,760
sitting in the back door, that
little 16,000 oz.

851
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,200
So.
Hasn't stopped the share price

852
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,600
tearing up.
Oh God, it's bloody.

853
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,440
Yeah, 7 bucks poor bloody.
Just consistent.

854
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,240
Consistent.
That's it.

855
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:01,240
Wow, bloody they did a break
quarterly.

856
00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:06,840
Ding Ding Ding for the allergy.
See fund ETF, inside funds and

857
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,520
everything.
The most famous stockholder in

858
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,400
Australia.
She's getting pulled up in the

859
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,640
straight about the holdings.
This one's in the Gold Fund,

860
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:14,240
yeah.
The gold.

861
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,720
Gold fund, Yeah, Not in Sammy's
fund, right?

862
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:18,080
Awesome.
Whoa.

863
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,360
So these guys report on the
calendar year, Yeah, right.

864
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,920
206,000 oz.
They did from Sambrado.

865
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:29,680
So Q4 was steady at 51,000 oz.
Sold a bit less than that,

866
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:35,680
although the mind oz was 73,
1000, so pretty chunky on on

867
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,320
that end.
If you look at it for the whole

868
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:42,720
year 2024, they're mine 235,000
oz produced 206,000 oz.

869
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:48,600
It's roughly a 5050 underground
open pit split between those

870
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,480
ones.
For the quarter, again, gold

871
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,800
production was 7% higher.
That's come on the back of

872
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,720
better meal throughput at
Sambrado.

873
00:44:57,720 --> 00:45:00,720
So all good on the oz front.
Again, this is just a pre

874
00:45:00,720 --> 00:45:04,280
quarterly, so we'll wait to see
what the costs are looking like

875
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:08,200
in the full numbers as well as
what Kiaka is looking like.

876
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:13,320
The latest update we'd had was
that it was 70% constructed, so

877
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,120
keen to see how that one shaping
up.

878
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,000
Mid this year isn't first gold
schedule for mid this year.

879
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,360
Tiaka, Q3 of calendar year, I
believe, yeah.

880
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,720
Yeah, I love, I love the the
thing out the first line.

881
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,680
Unhedged gold mining company,
West African Resources.

882
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,240
They're like, look, we're in
Africa, but we're unhedged.

883
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,680
Give us give us some writing,
for fuck's sake.

884
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:35,960
Oh, that's how I read that.
We should.

885
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:37,480
We should revisit all the hedge
books.

886
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,200
See.
Yeah, a lot of a lot of

887
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:40,240
companies aren't hedged now
aren't.

888
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:44,600
They, I think I might be getting
sent a bit of a bit of data

889
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:48,600
table of the hedge book, each
company's hedging and their

890
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,080
realized prices.
I'll bring that to the money

891
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:52,440
miners, whoever's saving.
Great.

892
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:56,400
Let me know if we can share it,
Emerald.

893
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:58,080
Keep going with the pre
quarterlys.

894
00:45:58,120 --> 00:45:59,760
Let's just.
Keep pumping them out, JD.

895
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,360
Couple interesting things here
to start with couple directors

896
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,880
bought some stock over the last
week couple weeks, so that's

897
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,600
good.
J Hughes 670 grand, not just a

898
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:13,640
10 or 20 grand punt, but actual
decent amount of money in the

899
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,760
mid 3:30.
So that's not too far from where

900
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:19,160
the share price is today.
And then Michael Brown scooping

901
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:21,360
up half $1,000,000 at a pretty
similar price.

902
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:25,680
So for the quarter, 32,000 oz,
it's a record quarter, so decent

903
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,160
on that front.
And here's one of the real

904
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,840
positives.
Recoveries up to 85.4%.

905
00:46:31,240 --> 00:46:34,040
They'd previously been averaging
closer to 80%.

906
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:38,080
So really back of the envelope,
if you just compare 85% to 80%

907
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:42,840
recoveries for this quarter,
you're getting 1.8000 oz more.

908
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,400
That annualizes to about $14
million in EBITDA.

909
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:51,040
So kind of is a good little
kicker and probably worth the

910
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:52,320
investment.
Not sure how much they they

911
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:56,080
spent on all those upgrades and
whatnot, but in time that should

912
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:59,040
come good.
So the company now holds $243

913
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:01,920
million in cash.
At the end of last quarter that

914
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:05,600
was $180 million.
On the debt side of things, they

915
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:07,880
should make their last
prepayment this quarter, so

916
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:13,040
March 31 and that will be circa
10 million Aussie bucks.

917
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:16,960
So shortly they'll be they'll be
debt free with a decent amount

918
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,000
of cash.
And just on the cost fronts,

919
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:23,640
flagged to be within the
guidance range, which is 810 to

920
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,800
880 US all in sustaining costs,
but we'll wait for the full

921
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,520
quarterly.
And been helped along by the

922
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,880
Aussie dollar boon at what,
$0.61?

923
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:35,880
All those U.S. dollar companies
with U.S. dollars sitting in the

924
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,200
account like WAFF and Emerald,
Yeah.

925
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,840
In the on the bank account side
of things and.

926
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:44,440
Everything they earn, yeah, it's
like getting better for oh, I

927
00:47:44,440 --> 00:47:47,040
suppose not on the gold price,
but everything they got sitting

928
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,240
in the bank is definitely
getting helped.

929
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:52,600
Keep the party going.
It's.

930
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,160
Cabot.
But there you look at this

931
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,560
quarterly performance, they've
actually friggin go, what are

932
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,200
they going from 4 bucks 40 down
to 3 bucks 50?

933
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:02,400
Actually, I haven't performed
that well in the quarter.

934
00:48:02,640 --> 00:48:05,520
Emerald, Yeah, but it looked.
From a share price perspective.

935
00:48:05,720 --> 00:48:09,480
Yeah from a yeah it looked good
Catalyst, the bloody good old

936
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:15,320
pollute Sonic bloody as we said,
absolute ripping 12 months for

937
00:48:15,320 --> 00:48:20,880
him on a share price bloody same
over 3 bucks 30 so.

938
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:22,880
Even since Christmas, even since
New Year's had.

939
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,280
That big drop off and then
straight back up.

940
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:30,280
Saw the new year in just below 2
bucks 60, so that is not a bad

941
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:34,640
rally for three weeks of work.
Take through Jodi like you did

942
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:39,240
this one.
So market cap 750 AV of 670.

943
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:44,680
The business produced just over
28,000 oz for the quarter at

944
00:48:44,720 --> 00:48:51,600
22,350 Aussie all in sustaining
they guided to between 2300 and

945
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:55,840
2500 for the year.
So at the gold price that we

946
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,040
have today in Aussie dollar
terms that gives them about a

947
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:02,600
$2000 margin, which is just just
awesome really.

948
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:04,360
And they also made the final
loan repayment.

949
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,480
So these guys have just been on
a, on a real tear on the

950
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:11,000
business.
A lot of, yeah, a lot of things

951
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,160
have gone their way, a lot of
hard work I'm sure has gone in

952
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,400
and they're bearing the fruit
for all of that.

953
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:19,400
So $35 million was generated
from operations, 9 million went

954
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:24,680
out the door on various growth
aspects on the expanding

955
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,080
production and exploration,
these sorts of things.

956
00:49:27,720 --> 00:49:31,240
Again, super simple, if they
deliver 115,000 oz for the year

957
00:49:31,240 --> 00:49:36,120
at 4300 Aussie gold and they
deliver at the midpoint of their

958
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,520
all in sustaining costs that
they're going to produce $220

959
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:43,320
million in EBITDA, which is very
tidy and.

960
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,320
Got to be CapEx to come ahead.
This year, yeah, you got to take

961
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:50,960
off the CapEx, of course, yeah.
And they're growing, but from

962
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:52,040
where the business?
What's AV?

963
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:53,920
About?
Three times if they produce

964
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:55,120
that.
Yeah, three times.

965
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,080
So just from where, from where
the business was a little while

966
00:49:58,080 --> 00:49:59,720
ago.
It's been such a turn around and

967
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:03,080
yeah, hopefully the things keep
going in their favour.

968
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:04,880
I'm sure there's I think.
That's Sal Henty.

969
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:07,840
I think they try to.
I'm not sure how much they kind

970
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:09,360
of get sure.
Yeah, I'm sure they get for it.

971
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:10,880
Sure they'd want.
To just.

972
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,600
It just makes things.
Of it give it a Sabania.

973
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,040
Sabania could become a Tasmanian
PRS I'm.

974
00:50:17,400 --> 00:50:20,240
Sure, they'd love to get their
hands on, Yeah.

975
00:50:20,240 --> 00:50:21,760
I mean for the core.
Just to make themselves more

976
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:23,200
complex.
Exactly.

977
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:26,320
That's what shareholders love.
So yeah, Kend to see.

978
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:30,160
Oh as fuck all, wasn't it. 10
million.

979
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,640
Bucks, Yeah, yeah.
Exercise, Exercise.

980
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,320
An option for 10 million bucks.
Yeah.

981
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,600
What's the the liability on?
It's like, what is it?

982
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:38,920
It's pretty big, isn't it?
I think there's AI, think

983
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:42,080
there's a yeah, a few, few, few
challenges.

984
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:45,800
Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
Might be starting to get a

985
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,200
little bit more go on the other
direction on cash and everything

986
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:52,640
with the up car Westgol.
Now this was a this was a very

987
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:55,640
interesting one.
Obviously group production

988
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:59,040
lifted on the back of the the
Corolla merger.

989
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:04,320
So what they pump out 80,000 oz
produced up from 77.

990
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:07,760
So they're starting to pump out
some decent size amount of Oz.

991
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:14,440
They did acknowledge it Bluebird
S efforts that sorry a modified

992
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,920
ground support regime was
implemented.

993
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:21,160
So I assume they must have had
some ground challenges at

994
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:25,680
Bluebird S Junction, which
because you unless they're like

995
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,920
fuck this ground is awesome,
let's put less ground support.

996
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,640
In I don't think it was.
You never put that one in there.

997
00:51:33,720 --> 00:51:35,920
That'd be the guy.
So I don't think that was the

998
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:38,880
case.
But if you're just looking at

999
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,680
the cash site come in, they sort
of snuck it in.

1000
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:47,320
They the cash boy in a liquid
investments 152 mills.

1001
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:51,240
So obviously got the share in
new Murchison gold.

1002
00:51:51,240 --> 00:51:54,760
I think that's their only
holding or if they got a bit of

1003
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:58,840
the in the pro forma with the
Cali holding or that got

1004
00:51:58,840 --> 00:52:00,720
divested, didn't it?
There you go.

1005
00:52:00,720 --> 00:52:03,560
I'll just shut up because I'll
bloody end up saying something

1006
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:08,720
wrong as per usual.
But together with 250 million

1007
00:52:08,720 --> 00:52:11,800
undrawn from its surrounded mil
corporate facility.

1008
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:15,800
So you look back at that
previous quarter closing cash

1009
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:21,600
and bullion of 103 million, but
now it's 152 million.

1010
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,360
Means they drew a bit of.
Money, but they drew they it as

1011
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,800
I said they drew their 50
million so they've effectively

1012
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:33,640
made $0.00 unhedged
operationally free cash flow was

1013
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:39,320
0.
So which is yeah so which is

1014
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:45,360
concerning at these gold prices.
So are they, why is the question

1015
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,920
we did now about their big,
pretty big decent sized

1016
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,160
payables, trade payables.
Are they paying, were they

1017
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,560
paying some of that down?
Don't know.

1018
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,720
And whether we know that might
say that is a working cap

1019
00:52:58,720 --> 00:53:02,160
movement in the waterfall chart
in the quarterly, but the half

1020
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,520
year accounts are going to be
interesting to see what their

1021
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:10,840
payables are.
So is yeah, there's and as as

1022
00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:13,040
I've always said with their
payables, the fact that they're

1023
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,200
owner operator, because usually,
you know, all, most of the other

1024
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,520
producers with a contractor,
your biggest, your biggest

1025
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:20,600
creditor is your friggin
contractor.

1026
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:25,280
So they don't have that where
they do have other supplies.

1027
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:28,840
So that even says the payable,
the high amount of payables is

1028
00:53:28,840 --> 00:53:31,360
even more concerning because
they don't they are an owner

1029
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,720
operator because they have to
pay their workers and everything

1030
00:53:33,720 --> 00:53:35,240
straight up.
So I remember I.

1031
00:53:35,240 --> 00:53:37,360
Remember when we looked at that,
it sort of looked like they

1032
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,800
would yeah, like post deal, they
might have paid some of that

1033
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:45,560
down.
But yeah, but still it's the the

1034
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:49,200
quantity of Oz they produce is,
is is a very large number and

1035
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:53,440
you hope you capture margin as
the gold price rises with that

1036
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:55,760
big quantity.
But the the the cash was

1037
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:58,400
disappointing the market, they
sold off a fair bit on the day.

1038
00:53:58,400 --> 00:53:59,680
From memory it was.
Like yeah, 15.

1039
00:53:59,720 --> 00:54:00,920
Percent on the day or.
Something where is it?

1040
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:02,680
We can check the candles.
It might have bounced a little

1041
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:05,680
bit since, yeah.
Yeah, it would have dropped from

1042
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:10,400
a bit below 280 to 2 50 ish at
the low she's.

1043
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:14,240
That big, that big red bar there
on the 8th or side, Yeah.

1044
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:16,080
Remember that?
Remember that silly synergies

1045
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:17,680
number that they put in with the
Corolla?

1046
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:21,120
Yeah, where are?
The synergies, another thing

1047
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:23,360
with them is like, and there's
the difference between like

1048
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:27,120
owner operator at this scale
compared to for these sort of

1049
00:54:27,120 --> 00:54:31,760
things compared to a contractor
is it's like who is running it?

1050
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,800
Like do you have like the
technical tech services team,

1051
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,480
like the underground manager
who's an engineer?

1052
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:39,960
Are they running the underground
like the contractor as well?

1053
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:42,600
Like where you, when you got a
contractor like a, like a Bar

1054
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:46,040
Minko or a burn card or a
McMahon in there, like they've

1055
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,480
got their project manager, their
engineers, like they're running

1056
00:54:49,480 --> 00:54:52,480
the, they're running the
contract and then your design

1057
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,760
and the levels and you work
together when you, when you're

1058
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,360
owner operator, a lot more
responsibility.

1059
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:00,760
Are they trying to run it all as
one and it's maybe not working?

1060
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,720
Are they, do they need to sort
of separate the mining services

1061
00:55:04,720 --> 00:55:08,480
from the tech services and run
them independently?

1062
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:11,040
Don't know, don't know.
There's a bit going on there, I

1063
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:14,520
think.
They are Intel that, like

1064
00:55:14,520 --> 00:55:18,840
Carora, was set up to have a
pretty nasty kind of half or

1065
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:21,200
something.
Yeah, because I think the timing

1066
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,160
of the deal was that to get it
done in time.

1067
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,400
So some of the roaring didn't
release their rate their latest

1068
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:29,160
quarterly, which was a shit one.
Yeah, I think so, whether that's

1069
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,480
been.
Sort of ran hard to the finish

1070
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:34,400
line and then hope it all can
get washed out in all these

1071
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:38,320
combined numbers.
Oh, and look, this is very early

1072
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,320
days for the pro forma like they
still probably got a lot of work

1073
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:45,360
to do it to get beta hunt to,
you know, operating in under the

1074
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:48,520
West Gold banner.
So yeah, yeah, just a just a bit

1075
00:55:48,520 --> 00:55:49,800
happening.
We've got our odds on.

1076
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:51,480
Great finger not too far away
now.

1077
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:53,880
Yeah, that's going to be an
interesting one because if that

1078
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,440
is based on historical
performance of that mind and

1079
00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,440
like, yes, it's on not as many
drill hits.

1080
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:03,560
But if they can get odd a
positive reconciliation on what

1081
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:05,840
they're predicting out of there,
that could be a pretty good

1082
00:56:05,840 --> 00:56:09,040
kicker for that business,
because it was fucking a pretty

1083
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,560
Ripper back in the day.
Next quarter, I think the

1084
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:14,720
streaming's coming.
Every gold ore body continues.

1085
00:56:14,720 --> 00:56:17,080
So that's, that's going to be an
interesting one.

1086
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:22,600
Orabanda, IBM Oh, Ding, the, the
what am I going to call my hedge

1087
00:56:22,600 --> 00:56:26,040
fund, the Steve Ray hedge fund?
That's illogical.

1088
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:28,720
Everything gets called.
My smokers called Steve Raydon

1089
00:56:28,720 --> 00:56:33,440
too.
Anyway, Orabanda got a Ding,

1090
00:56:33,440 --> 00:56:37,720
Ding, Ding for that one.
So they, so they're guiding to

1091
00:56:37,720 --> 00:56:41,320
105,000 oz midpoint at 2050 all
and sustaining.

1092
00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,040
So they've produced 47,000 oz
already for the first half.

1093
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:48,040
They they've actually come off a
bit this quarter.

1094
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:51,200
So obviously they had a pretty
good valuation for what the

1095
00:56:51,240 --> 00:56:54,040
metrics coming out, but it was,
you know, they're really backing

1096
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:57,360
seems like the the the money's
back in the management and the

1097
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:02,240
plan and everything but and so
they've they got sinking coming

1098
00:57:02,240 --> 00:57:04,040
on this quarter.
So they're saying that a lot

1099
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:08,040
about 21,000 ounces to
production cash only lifted 9

1100
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:11,000
million.
They're attributing 30 million

1101
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:14,040
sign because of 30 million of
gross capital being spent on the

1102
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,480
mine and resource development
and exploration expenditure.

1103
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,800
And what you can think, right,
is 30 million high.

1104
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:25,120
But look, if they're going to be
producing from Davy Hearst for a

1105
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:28,880
long bloody time, like it's a
big tenure, you're always going

1106
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,400
to be developing deeper, which
is growth capital.

1107
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:34,960
You're always going to be infill
and extensional drilling to go

1108
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:36,920
deeper.
You're always going to be bloody

1109
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,880
do an exploration on the tenure
to find the next one side.

1110
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,600
It might not be 30 million, but
it's not going to be bloody 10

1111
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:46,400
million going forward.
There's always, these operations

1112
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,240
are always going to have growth
capital if they're going to stay

1113
00:57:49,240 --> 00:57:53,040
on where, if they're going to go
deeper and find new bits on the

1114
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:54,960
tenure, there's always going to
be growth capital.

1115
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:56,960
Do you want a business next year
or the year after?

1116
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:58,560
Yeah.
So unless you're going to buy

1117
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:00,880
something else that already has
the stuff there.

1118
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:05,200
So yeah, I'll just, yeah, I
don't, I don't get sucked into

1119
00:58:05,200 --> 00:58:08,200
the fact that that 30 million is
just, oh, it's just a one off.

1120
00:58:08,240 --> 00:58:09,440
I don't think it's going to be a
one off.

1121
00:58:09,440 --> 00:58:11,400
I think it's all there's always
going to be a good chunk of

1122
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:13,480
growth capital there.
What about the all in sustaining

1123
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:16,480
that?
So that that blew out in which

1124
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:21,000
probably was well above what the
analysts were thinking up.

1125
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:24,000
That was up 11%.
So that was 2 1/2 thousand an

1126
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:26,880
ounce quarter on quarter.
So they they attribute that the

1127
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,400
sounds like they depleted all
the stockpiles.

1128
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:34,840
So the higher cost stockpiles.
So that obviously adds that's

1129
00:58:34,840 --> 00:58:37,160
like a what they call it a
working, it's a working cap

1130
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:40,080
movement, isn't it, inventory
adjustment on the oil and

1131
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,280
sustain and when the processing
stockpiles.

1132
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:45,040
Yeah, Silverlight, do a Daisy
and all that.

1133
00:58:45,200 --> 00:58:49,040
It's not yeah, non cash, yeah.
Non yeah, whatever that is.

1134
00:58:49,120 --> 00:58:51,560
You got a mark on it how they
came in?

1135
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:53,880
Yeah, back in the.
Day, yeah, so and then that what

1136
00:58:54,120 --> 00:58:58,520
was it non cash share based
payments for 116 bucks an ounce.

1137
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,760
So anyway, so once our sankin
comes online and everything if

1138
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:09,280
that sort of tracks back down.
So but there's still yeah,

1139
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,040
single, single.
I want to sort of not single

1140
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:15,920
asset now because you have got
sinking, you have got Riverina.

1141
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:19,200
So it's one of them ones.
It's if it all goes to plan and

1142
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:23,000
I hit guidance be all good.
I just look at underground to

1143
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:26,520
open pit is like you compare
this to say Capricorn in terms

1144
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:28,920
of consistency, delivering back
and management.

1145
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:32,160
Just it feels like to me
underground you can have shit go

1146
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:35,400
wrong a bit easier.
So as long as nothing goes

1147
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:37,960
wrong, everything gets
delivered, nothing goes wrong

1148
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:40,320
underground.
But he should be all good.

1149
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:43,400
So all pending.
But they do have two operations

1150
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:46,320
now.
So sort of not as much of A

1151
00:59:46,320 --> 00:59:48,680
risk.
To to feeding it, yeah.

1152
00:59:48,840 --> 00:59:51,280
Yeah, so pretty hefty, bloody
value.

1153
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,200
Yeah, there we go.
Bellevue.

1154
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:55,680
That's for last.
Ding, Ding, Ding.

1155
00:59:55,680 --> 00:59:57,400
As well.
I have the position in the Steve

1156
00:59:57,400 --> 01:00:00,200
Ray hedge fund.
Bloody long.

1157
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:04,200
What I want to say, oh, I'm
going to give a balanced view on

1158
01:00:04,200 --> 01:00:07,440
everything and we'll not
disclose whether she's long or

1159
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,800
short.
That is my way.

1160
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:13,840
Give us a view, Matt. 20 So this
was probably the biggest

1161
01:00:16,280 --> 01:00:22,320
downward pressure one you'd say
26,000 oz sold at 3339 bucks so

1162
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:26,200
pretty it appears pretty much
all the gold sales bar maybe a

1163
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:29,040
couple of 1000 oz were delivered
into the Ford sales and the

1164
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:31,680
collars that you can see on the
chart here.

1165
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:36,080
So I didn't really get much
exposure at all to the over 4000

1166
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:40,080
bloody oz gold price because the
previous guidance was remember

1167
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:45,440
165 to 180,000 oz produced.
They've downgraded that pre

1168
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:50,160
quarterly to 150 to 165, didn't
give any cost guidance and maybe

1169
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:53,320
that's probably why they didn't
they only disclose what they've

1170
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:55,600
sold.
They didn't say what they

1171
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,840
produced.
I'm not sure.

1172
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:00,760
But they're the cost guidance
will be coming out in the

1173
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:04,640
quarterly, which I think is
we'll be back into this month.

1174
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,560
I think it's about are they
scheduled as the 30th?

1175
01:01:07,560 --> 01:01:10,640
I'm not sure, sorry.
But typical numerator

1176
01:01:10,640 --> 01:01:13,440
denominator relationship.
I'd say if the answers are going

1177
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:16,360
down, costs are going up
probably a bit higher than the

1178
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:20,280
1800 bucks an ounce they did
guide in the that was only in

1179
01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:24,840
the September quarter.
So yes, we'll wait and see.

1180
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:26,760
But they said that they did
comment here.

1181
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:29,440
The second-half gold production
is forecasted to be

1182
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:35,720
approximately 90,000 ounces.
So that'll be, you know, the

1183
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:39,880
best they've produced prior to
this was, you know, was it 42.

1184
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:41,280
Wow, so.
I think so.

1185
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:45,840
Very back ended, got to get 2,
two quarters of, you know,

1186
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:48,080
record production.
Precious I.

1187
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:52,280
Wonder how much of that is is
driven by grade and I wonder how

1188
01:01:52,280 --> 01:01:54,600
much of it is different by, you
know, all volumes.

1189
01:01:54,640 --> 01:01:56,880
Yeah.
Well, they they did comment on

1190
01:01:56,880 --> 01:02:00,880
there saying it was lower grade
due to the mine sequence

1191
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,200
progressing through the outer
edges of the ore body.

1192
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:10,560
So that is that is saying.
And they put that down to the

1193
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:14,560
the Marceline, Bellevue South
and Almond areas.

1194
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:19,840
So they're pretty much if they
mine in the outer edges, they

1195
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:22,480
that is like because you pretty
much put a drive in, you go out

1196
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:26,440
to the edge, then the first
Stokes you take are from the

1197
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:28,480
edge.
So it would imply for those

1198
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:31,440
three sets of ore bodies, they
are all retreating on the edge

1199
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:35,680
of the ore body together, which
you could infer that they'll

1200
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:38,400
probably waiting on the
development to finish to start

1201
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:40,320
drilling to get those Stokes
going.

1202
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:44,840
And which they did point to
interactions between production

1203
01:02:44,840 --> 01:02:47,400
and development site.
Just it's it was actually the

1204
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:51,320
first time they put the actually
said, I think now correct me if

1205
01:02:51,320 --> 01:02:54,280
I'm wrong that, but they
specifically said that

1206
01:02:54,280 --> 01:02:56,600
interactions between production
and development.

1207
01:02:56,800 --> 01:03:00,240
So meaning that they're sort of
on on top of each other.

1208
01:03:01,000 --> 01:03:05,000
So and when you I guess mining
all those outer edges together

1209
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:08,120
when you probably know the they
probably knew the grade wasn't

1210
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:10,080
they've done a shit light
infield drill and they know the

1211
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,720
grade.
It's it means the schedule sort

1212
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:15,080
of hasn't gone to plan because
you wanted that one was probably

1213
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:17,320
supposed to be in the high grade
section where you mine in the

1214
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:19,640
lower grade there to balance out
the answers.

1215
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:23,920
Obviously hasn't gone to plan
because the the development is

1216
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:27,440
isn't where they needed it to
be, which, you know, heads back

1217
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:31,960
to maybe the mill got turned on
too early and development wasn't

1218
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:34,640
far enough ahead and stop and
just caught up too quick.

1219
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:40,120
So yeah, it's going to be, it's
just when you, that's the thing,

1220
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:43,360
when you longitudinal narrow
veining, you're sort of locked

1221
01:03:43,360 --> 01:03:45,600
into that sequence.
You need to mine from the edge

1222
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:49,360
to the end unless you just want
to blow up the intersection and

1223
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:51,880
take the high grade straight up
and develop back around.

1224
01:03:51,880 --> 01:03:53,920
But that is a bit
counterintuitive.

1225
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:57,240
But yes, that's the joys of
narrow vein gold mining.

1226
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:05,640
So it's just, it's just
interesting to think on an EV

1227
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:11,040
basis, but the Bellevue's EV
1.38 billion.

1228
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:13,920
Did did you, did you throw in
the out of money value of the

1229
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:15,320
hedge book into that EV?
No, it didn't.

1230
01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:17,960
Yeah.
So what would that be?

1231
01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:22,840
So I think it was 200 mil.
Around OK, so So what Plus +200

1232
01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:27,320
that 1.58 billion?
1.58 yeah, same EV as Spartan

1233
01:04:27,680 --> 01:04:31,760
wow yeah and with.
Which isn't fully fully funded,

1234
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:34,800
you wouldn't say.
Well, it's probably fully

1235
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:38,800
funded, but it's not not
developed like production.

1236
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:45,240
No, not long way off producing
still like undetermined like of

1237
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:48,240
how it's going to whether it's
going to backfill the value.

1238
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:52,800
So yeah, it's like when you when
you stack them up and Bellevue,

1239
01:04:52,800 --> 01:04:56,120
obviously Spartan's been
drilling down to a kilometer and

1240
01:04:56,120 --> 01:04:57,880
they've drilled a shit load of
it.

1241
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:02,120
Bellevue shit load of
exploration upside there no

1242
01:05:02,120 --> 01:05:05,800
doubt as well.
So it's like there's a, you

1243
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:09,000
know, there's a, there's a case
of like, OK, they've they've

1244
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:11,720
lost 20 million for the quarter.
They're back at the to 80.

1245
01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:13,760
They've still got 100 million
now under Macquarie.

1246
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:17,080
So will Macquarie be, you know,
will they potentially be

1247
01:05:17,080 --> 01:05:19,920
breaching covenants again?
Like will Macquarie come

1248
01:05:19,920 --> 01:05:21,480
knocking for the last 100
million?

1249
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:24,720
Will they need to raise money
again to get themselves out of

1250
01:05:24,720 --> 01:05:28,360
the shit versus well, they've
got all this infrastructure and

1251
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:31,840
a mine in place that pretty much
just needs a production reset.

1252
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:34,240
It just needs production just
needs to be slowed.

1253
01:05:34,240 --> 01:05:40,280
Development needs to get ahead.
So run the gold's there like and

1254
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:44,000
you know, we'll fucking gold
fields who have got Agnew 60

1255
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:46,520
kilometers away start looking at
it.

1256
01:05:47,120 --> 01:05:51,440
We'll in Genesis think that
their script is better used

1257
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:53,880
buying a Bellevue compared to
just.

1258
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:56,800
If they've got the processing
solution already, they maybe

1259
01:05:56,800 --> 01:05:59,360
they don't need fault.
That was meant to be the reset

1260
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:02,480
that we saw, you know, whenever
it was three or three, four

1261
01:06:02,480 --> 01:06:04,000
months ago.
Yeah, I don't that's what

1262
01:06:04,000 --> 01:06:07,480
management off of a that's what
management wanted that to be.

1263
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:10,480
So it's crazy we're talking just
in January already that they

1264
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:13,280
need a need a reset.
Although on the other hand, it's

1265
01:06:13,280 --> 01:06:15,880
getting almost contrarian to say
you like Bellevue.

1266
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:19,040
Everyone hates them.
Begun to performer like how many

1267
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:21,320
Yeah Gold producers went down
here to date last year.

1268
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:28,240
Yeah, it's it's like, but it's
will yeah, will they will people

1269
01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:29,640
pretend.
I'm sure plenty of companies are

1270
01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:33,280
looking at them.
Will will I think, oh, we're

1271
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:36,840
going to wait a bit longer or or
not, because it's like pretty

1272
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:41,240
it's stonking ore body.
It's just just need to it just

1273
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:44,960
needs operational, a decent
operational reset and probably

1274
01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:48,720
the focus taken off it as a
single asset in one company.

1275
01:06:48,720 --> 01:06:51,640
Chuck it in a bloody Chuck it in
another company where they got a

1276
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:53,400
multiple.
Like you can't.

1277
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:58,320
I can't comment on bloody where
the development and all that is

1278
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:02,840
at Gualia or Ulysses for Genesis
or bloody you know what's going

1279
01:07:02,840 --> 01:07:05,560
on at Admiral when they're all
mashed in one.

1280
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:08,480
It's like the less focused, I
don't know what's going on at

1281
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:11,000
King of the Hills and the fun,
like when you're focused on one

1282
01:07:11,000 --> 01:07:13,840
asset, it's the eyeballs are on
it.

1283
01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:17,880
So yeah, we will.
We will bloody see.

1284
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:21,880
And to that point, it's hard to
have the reset's required.

1285
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:24,520
It's hard to do that when you've
got like debt repayments to make

1286
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:26,760
as well.
How do you take the time to do

1287
01:07:26,800 --> 01:07:27,840
it?
So that's where the

1288
01:07:27,840 --> 01:07:29,960
diversifiable for you helps
people, yeah.

1289
01:07:29,960 --> 01:07:32,520
Exactly.
Yeah, because I can't to reset,

1290
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:34,640
you know, to slow production,
get development ahead.

1291
01:07:35,000 --> 01:07:36,320
For that you need money.
Yeah.

1292
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:38,840
Which is the other direction of
buying money.

1293
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:41,400
Yeah, For debt.
Some people will be licking

1294
01:07:41,400 --> 01:07:42,920
their lips though.
Yeah, yeah.

1295
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:45,440
One way to think about the debt
too is, is like it's not that

1296
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:48,400
much debt left relative for what
their market cap, you know, is.

1297
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:51,120
You know, it's not like a yeah,
but it is.

1298
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:53,640
It's still 100 million bucks,
Yeah.

1299
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:55,160
Yeah.
And the fact that they finally

1300
01:07:55,160 --> 01:07:58,800
got 80 and they went backwards
and they still got the hedging

1301
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:02,600
in place, which is they need a
good, they need that bloody

1302
01:08:02,600 --> 01:08:06,440
45,000 oz quarter very much so
pressure.

1303
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:10,160
So we'll wait and see.
It could get interesting there.

1304
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:12,800
I think I've just you just got
to think of what you don't

1305
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:14,480
expect.
One of the goalies.

1306
01:08:14,480 --> 01:08:17,359
Maybe them and Spartan could
merge the same bloody value.

1307
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:21,399
It's interesting.
Who knows some something's going

1308
01:08:21,399 --> 01:08:24,399
to happen this year.
That's with some that's probably

1309
01:08:24,399 --> 01:08:27,240
true.
Not not when you guys wrote down

1310
01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:30,439
and not a producer, but did you
see the bullet bullying deal

1311
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,600
last week?
Buddy, it was interesting.

1312
01:08:33,600 --> 01:08:38,160
Was it 200 odd in cash too?
Yeah, like cash deal for.

1313
01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:41,720
MI6 picking it up?
50 mil market.

1314
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:46,760
It reminded me of the ratio of
when Northern Star bought

1315
01:08:46,760 --> 01:08:50,880
Paulson's like 5 mil market cap
and a $40 million acquisition.

1316
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:55,359
Yeah, all in cash, I think.
Yeah, they've got to do a big a

1317
01:08:55,359 --> 01:08:57,319
big.
I mean, there's a process before

1318
01:08:57,319 --> 01:08:59,279
they'll be able to be quoted
again.

1319
01:09:00,399 --> 01:09:04,240
But yeah, I mean, I found, I
found that interesting not just

1320
01:09:04,240 --> 01:09:07,920
for that reason, but the I could
say I haven't seen someone do a

1321
01:09:07,920 --> 01:09:11,840
deal with CGN in a long time.
Like I just yeah, that could be.

1322
01:09:11,840 --> 01:09:13,680
It'll be interesting to follow
now you've got another

1323
01:09:14,279 --> 01:09:19,279
undeveloped, you know, growth
project out there in WA, which

1324
01:09:19,279 --> 01:09:21,560
has just kind of been dormant
and idle for a long time in

1325
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:24,279
Zegean's portfolio and it'll be
now be framed as a developer.

1326
01:09:24,479 --> 01:09:27,279
Those left wing ones are really
interesting, those projects, the

1327
01:09:27,279 --> 01:09:29,120
ones we're not even talking
about, you know, like when

1328
01:09:29,160 --> 01:09:31,120
Capricorn picked up at Gibson.
Yeah.

1329
01:09:31,640 --> 01:09:33,800
Yeah, when Emerald picked up,
Yeah.

1330
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:37,359
North.
It has to be part of like some

1331
01:09:37,359 --> 01:09:40,399
bigger, obviously part of some
bigger plan because it's like

1332
01:09:40,399 --> 01:09:44,080
they did talk about average
recovery.

1333
01:09:44,319 --> 01:09:46,000
Yeah, yeah, yeah, because.
I think, I think recovery's not

1334
01:09:46,000 --> 01:09:47,120
great there, but.
No.

1335
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:49,600
And I think, I think it's, I
think it's good in parts, but it

1336
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:52,560
is refractory in parts as well
like average recovery.

1337
01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:55,240
So there is refractory
components and considering

1338
01:09:55,240 --> 01:10:00,560
Paddington's got the the mill
for that and they are, it's like

1339
01:10:00,560 --> 01:10:03,720
will it will it have to go to
Kanana Bell for instance, could

1340
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,360
Kanana Bell be an option like
where what are you going to use

1341
01:10:06,360 --> 01:10:09,480
to do to process it because it
is refractory to nature?

1342
01:10:10,600 --> 01:10:13,960
You see these like rehab heap
leach pads from last time it was

1343
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:19,520
producing in the 90s, I think so
yeah, TBA, like it's it's the

1344
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:23,640
footprint's quite large too,
like it's literally underneath

1345
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:26,040
the gulf of the highway too.
But there's enough other side

1346
01:10:26,040 --> 01:10:27,720
you can.
Yeah, because it goes under the

1347
01:10:27,720 --> 01:10:31,200
pot.
So there there's a a chunk there

1348
01:10:31,200 --> 01:10:33,320
they obviously can't take.
Yeah, yeah.

1349
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:34,880
But.
Yeah.

1350
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:36,400
Yeah, I'll say.
I'll say what?

1351
01:10:36,600 --> 01:10:39,440
Yeah.
Yeah, I'd be interested to know

1352
01:10:39,440 --> 01:10:44,000
what the processing solution is.
So I don't know KB or I've got

1353
01:10:44,000 --> 01:10:47,520
my eyes on KB.
That is going to happen in a

1354
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:49,280
decade or so.
Something will happen at

1355
01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:53,640
Kananabel in a decade.
All righty.

1356
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:56,120
Oh, there you go.
God, that's a bloody stonker.

1357
01:10:56,480 --> 01:10:58,080
Wicked.
Jesus missed us.

1358
01:10:58,080 --> 01:11:00,040
You got fucking an hour. 15
minutes.

1359
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:02,000
What Morty is what?
Money miners.

1360
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:05,320
Bloody thanks.
All my partners says I'll miss

1361
01:11:05,320 --> 01:11:09,040
talking about these bastards.
Mineral mining services.

1362
01:11:09,080 --> 01:11:12,280
MMS grounded.
Sorry, James Marlow.

1363
01:11:12,360 --> 01:11:13,960
You have got a good enough run,
mate.

1364
01:11:13,960 --> 01:11:15,200
We've got a grounded hat on
there.

1365
01:11:16,080 --> 01:11:18,280
See if it ground sports our
insurance.

1366
01:11:18,280 --> 01:11:22,720
K Drill Dash SAT start push
contracting Get word solutions.

1367
01:11:23,640 --> 01:11:24,840
Right.
Right.

1368
01:11:25,920 --> 01:11:28,560
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

1369
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:30,640
general nature only and does not
take into account the

1370
01:11:30,640 --> 01:11:34,240
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1371
01:11:34,240 --> 01:11:36,280
person.
Before making any investment

1372
01:11:36,280 --> 01:11:39,320
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1373
01:11:39,320 --> 01:11:42,480
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1374
01:11:42,680 --> 01:11:44,680
financial situation and needs.