Uranium Wild Predictions and which Base Metals Restart will Make Bank First?

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Right eye money miners.
We were just about to record and

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have a look what bloody rocked
up we've.

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Got a lovely gift from a money?
Miner Oh shout out to WA gifts

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and hampers.
But this is like this is a

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result of bloody great land gold
getting Telfa because straight

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from as you can see.
I'll take a photo of it to serve

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Matty Michael and his serfs from
Sir Stewie the Pom.

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Great Stewie Hinds.
Oh.

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Thank you.
He's.

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Trying to buy.
Sorry Stewie, we're not talking

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about bloody Telfer or Grayland
or anyone today, but very

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timely.
Cause today's our 400th episode.

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Oh money of mine.
It's crazy, isn't?

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It oh bloody it.
It is the that that is our Super

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Bowl, Jason.
It is our Super Bowl.

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Oh, poor old Taylor Swift to be
upset.

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Yeah, I know Trav didn't win.
No, no luck for the No luck for

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Kansas.
The Eagles took it away this

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year, Yeah.
There you go.

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It's amazing.
They look back.

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I think they played years ago
and a few years ago, but Kansas

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City beat them.
The other way round.

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Oh, it's just, it's just real
NFL show, right?

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Let's get to something we know a
bit more about than NFL uranium.

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We're gonna tour, there's a bit
of bloody uranium news I'm gonna

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mix together couple of podcasts
in views, news articles and me

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just making up things that might
happen.

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Love it, but it sounds the more
I write about it, the more I

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believe it.
It's great.

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J So you're heading out to
Cobar?

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Yeah, to covering a bit of Poly
metals.

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We're looking at a bit of a a
peculiar small cap takeover bid

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and just some lithium around the
grounds as well.

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But let's get into your uranium
use.

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What's what's going on?
What?

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Has happened.
Educate me.

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Nothing really, I don't think,
but I'll just make a segment out

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of.
It let's do.

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It the so as we've seen the old
spot price back below 70 again

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sitting at 69 bucks though
you've got the long term, the

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long term price, term price.
Yeah, yeah.

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Starting.
Strong 82 bucks a pound midterm

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sitting at 76 so yeah it's like
that spot process continued to

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have pressure on it and there is
some comments from a podcast

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that come out a YouTube vid that
come out during the week with

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from triangle investor who
interviewed Grant Isaac from

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he's pretty much the top dog
second in charge you'd say for

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Kamiko, which was I don't think
I've ever seen him on a podcast

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before I'm not sure but it's a
pretty he's interesting.

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Kamiko are the bloody alongside
'cause Adam Prom as we know the

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most influential player in the
uranium market globally.

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So it was a good yarn.
We'll get into that later.

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But also seen out from our good
friend, geez, we've got friends

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everywhere.
Looks like we're really

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influenced.
But I just like it.

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I just like people.
Shoot me.

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Oh, Peter Kerr, our great friend
Peter Kerr.

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What do you have to?
Say, well, he wrote an article

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today about BHP boys uranium
bulls with plans for small

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increase in production.
And I think I mentioned it the

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other week saying that, you
know, if it was completely

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opposite to this, saying that if
the there was that thought out

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there that if BHP expanded
Olympic dam, that the say, if

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the copper production doubled,
the uranium production would

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increase at a higher factor
because there was that there was

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that narrative going around.
So, you know, they're producing,

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you know, 8 to 10,000,000 lbs
already of uranium as, as a by

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product, but still bloody
chunky, chunky amounts.

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So they were thinking if they,
you know, doubled it, they could

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really bring a lot of uranium
into the market.

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But then what I guess BHP have,
you know, they've submitted

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paperwork to the authorities
about the smelter expansion,

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which would double copper
production and pretty much

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saying that I'll, I'll bring it
up here.

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A lot of the extra feed coming
from Carapatina and Prominent

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Hill is said to not contain that
much uranium, so the uranium

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won't actually increase that
much if they double double from,

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you know, 300 odd 1000 tonne of
copper to 600,000.

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Which would have made a lot of
uranium investors sort of calm,

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calm down a little bit, I guess.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.

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So which is?
Yeah, I don't, I don't know.

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I guess it's one of those
believe it when I see it things

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because I know the logic the
whole thing around caropotene

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and prominent Hill being bought
into BHP was that there is parts

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of those mines that do have
higher levels of uranium in it

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and that was like a bottle a
constraint for OS minerals

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because they didn't have they
couldn't effectively mine them

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as easy because the uranium
levels well they didn't have the

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processing solution for it.
And I think it would have

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affected the concentrate like
getting it shipped out if it had

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high levels of radioactivity.
But you know, combining it with

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the Olympic dam and having that
all together now you've got the

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processing solution.
So you don't have to be as

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selective with the mining.
So yeah, I'm not in the weeds

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enough about Carapatina and
Promil, but there was still will

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be some uranium coming from
those operations whether they

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target that or not in the
scheduling.

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But they've pretty much said it
for doubling in the copper,

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it'll be a 1% increase in
uranium.

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I think I read SO.
Not as much as paper we're

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expecting.
Basically no.

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And so look, how do you read
into that lot BHP's thoughts on

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like they're trying to, I
suppose the 10 eight to

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10,000,000 lbs they're selling
from Olympic Dam is pretty

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bugger all compared to what BHP
make a year out of iron ore and

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copper.
So you know, they're they're

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trying not to lower the uranium
price, but it doesn't really

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have a material effect at all on
BHP for how much they produce.

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But they're not talking the
price down that they want to buy

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a heapy uranium.
You could infer.

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So don't know, maybe they're not
a buyer of next Gen. but we'll

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get to that later.
OK, hold on for that one.

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So.
This potty now you mentioned

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earlier with the Kamiko exec, So
what?

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What?
Was that about shout out to

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Lucian from Triangle Investor?
Bloody highly recommend watching

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the whole interview.
It was very, very interesting

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and very, you know, Kamiko, he's
like he was swinging himself

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around a bit as Kamiko's like,
we're right.

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Yeah, we're like, you know,
we're we're the holding the keys

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to the closet here.
Is that a saying?

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It is now the gate.
Keys to the Kingdom?

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Oh yeah, it's one of those.
Something like that.

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I love it out the YouTube
comments talking about how much

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I'll waffle on like I don't
care.

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The more you comment, the more
I'm going to do it.

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So whatever.
So I guess I'll play a couple of

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could play a couple of snippets
to highlight and we'll and we'll

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have a yarn about it.
OK.

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This first one from Grant was
around I guess the spot market

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and you know, Kamikow like very
contracted.

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They're actually talks about in
the interview how they they're

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contracted 30% more than they're
going to produce like because in

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over the long term because of
their, you know what they've got

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in other resources that are on
care and maintenance or

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brownfield stuff they could
bring back on.

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So they're, you know, in the
spot market, they're not very

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active, but they're talking
about comments about people that

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are active in the spot market.
Let's play.

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Around so you didn't have the
demand building in the term

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market and yet you had some
people for whatever reason show

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up with material to sell.
I mean, January began with a

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producer who's restarting an
asset trying to sell 200,000 lbs

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in the market in a non
fundamental discretionary market

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where utilities aren't focused.
It's a dumb idea.

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It's a dumb idea every time.
And and I don't know how many

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times we have to say it, but
spot market will be under

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pressure.
If there are those who have

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productive assets and they don't
do the hard work of building a

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home for them.
I have no problem buying in the

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market when when we show up to
buy, there's a response.

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But what we do not do is play
the role of buyer of last

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resort.
If there's a producer out there

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and they haven't planned things
accordingly or they decided that

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a spot strategy was going to be
a really smart idea, you know,

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they'll often phone us and
they'll say, hey, you know, I've

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got 200,000 lbs to sell.
And, and if you don't buy it,

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I'm going to put it in the spot
market.

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And I'll tell you our answer
100% of the time is put it in

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the spot market.
Then you'll push down the price,

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you'll get a lower price for it.
I might buy it at that lower

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price and when the market
corrects back up, I'll take that

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trading margin.
But if we start rewarding that

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kind of behaviour, it will
continue.

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So, and the, but the mechanism
behind Kamiko's revenue is, you

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know, you could sense why it
gets a bit rolled up about this.

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So because from the, from the,
the race star projects and my,

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and because he's, as with every
other uranium executive around

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the world at the moment, every
time they speak, they're talking

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about the structural supply
deficit, like the price is going

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to do this.
And like for, for the restart

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projects, like selling into the
spot is like, because they

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believe that too.
Everyone's believes it.

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So it's like, why would you
contract out right now or

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contract a big chunk out and
lock your price in?

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If you believe the price is
going up, there's no point

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contracting it now unless you've
got a, you know, a high, a high

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floor and market referenced
pricing that you know follows

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the spot.
If it does go up, like you,

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you're going to maintain your
flexibility and, you know, sell

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bits into the spot saying,
because you wouldn't think

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200,000 lbs would move the spot
price too much.

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But it obviously, if people are,
if the the spot price is falling

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and if like anyone selling into
the spot market is putting more

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pressure on it, why is that piss
chemical off so much?

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Have a look at this chart.
This is how they're based on the

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old contracts that they've
signed, like the market, and I

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assume they must be not all
fixed.

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They're a majority of it is the
market reference price, which

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means it'll it'll be in a range,
but it's like they're

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effectively paid based on what
the spot price is.

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So as much as they say the spot
price is a like no one's

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interested in the spot market
that what the spot price is is

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what Kamiko gets paid for in
their contracts.

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So you can see here if the for
2025, if the spot price is 80,

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they get paid $61.00 a pound.
If the spot price is 60, they

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get paid $55 a pound.
So it.

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Impacts their top line.
That that downward pressure is

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cost in the spot price is
costing Gamiko money.

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So whether it's the more you'd
say direct way of saying it

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don't sell into the spot market
because you'll drive the price

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down and we make less money
because.

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It effects their market
referenced contract.

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Exactly.
Yeah, OK.

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And and.
Interesting.

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And because there is becoming a
big pretty decent gap between So

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what the long term, long term
price to the spot price now is

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like you know a $13 a pound
difference.

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So there is a pretty big.
Is that a historically big

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difference?
Is it normally?

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Does it trade in a kind of band
typically?

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I know, I know, like the
previous, the way the market was

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previously set up back in the
the previous days was that you

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know every the term term process
where all the action is and then

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if you've got shit leftover,
you'd have to throw it into the

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spot market.
Hence the spot market was always

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below the term market.
I'm not sure how much if it was

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this much, but yeah, if it that
that's like the sort of

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equilibrium of how the market
should operate.

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And that's where.
So when you know, when last year

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when like spot price was over
$100, the term price was oh,

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that was bloody that way.
It was what, down in the 60s or

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70s or something?
It's.

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Still playing catch up?
Yeah.

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00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,640
So that was just like the.
So whether that happens again,

226
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,200
who who knows.
But the term price didn't follow

227
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,000
the spot price up like it did.
That was just a bit of short

228
00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,920
term mania.
So yeah, yeah, I found found

229
00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:53,760
that very, very interesting.
So and you can, you can see both

230
00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:55,600
sides.
If the as I said, if the develop

231
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,800
the new restarts are thinking
it's going to go up, we're going

232
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:01,840
to keep flexibility and the lot
because as soon as you sell it,

233
00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,360
it's sold.
But if you've still kept it, you

234
00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,480
need to sell a bit for cash flow
into the spot to keep things

235
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,680
going.
The the longer you hold onto it,

236
00:13:10,680 --> 00:13:13,400
the closer you get into that
thesis changing if it does.

237
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,320
If it does, who bloody knows
good and the way what else?

238
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,720
Not sure if he was who's talking
about.

239
00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,360
I don't know if he knew the
actual company or not.

240
00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,000
But interesting comments around
the 200,000 lbs that got put

241
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:32,120
into the market by restart.
Mine restart in January so on it

242
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:37,200
because I know boss sold 200,000
lbs into spot in their last

243
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:39,760
quarter and I think that was at
78 bucks a pound.

244
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:42,280
So I think based on based on the
quarterly numbers.

245
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,960
So that ended up better than
what the spot price is now.

246
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:50,400
So unless it was them again in
January or it could be, it could

247
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,520
have been Paladin or Denison,
like who who knows, But it's

248
00:13:54,520 --> 00:14:00,400
very, very direct at those
people that are selling into the

249
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,240
spot market cause hey, it's
costing them money.

250
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,840
So 'cause you look at their
average realised price, Kamiko

251
00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:13,120
for last quarter was $60.00 a
pound and look at what the I'll

252
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,320
bring up the graph of the spot
price since then.

253
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,040
So their quarterly results are
coming out.

254
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,280
I think it's 20th of February
for the December quarter.

255
00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:22,400
Couple weeks or so.
Yeah.

256
00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,400
So based on that spot price
performance, I dare say we will

257
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:30,520
see Kamiko's realised price be
in the 50's, the high 50s.

258
00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,240
So if the spot price is going
down as much and assuming there,

259
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,960
there's a good chunk of market
reference to pricing in their

260
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,840
contracts.
So like so when I say market

261
00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:44,200
reference pricing, that's means
you got a floor ceiling and it

262
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:45,960
tracks the spot price in that
band.

263
00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:49,360
If it goes below it doesn't
matter, you get paid the floor.

264
00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,880
If it goes above the ceiling,
doesn't matter, you get paid the

265
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,400
ceiling.
Whereas there's fixed contracts

266
00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:02,800
where they'll say they'll Ford
sell at, you know, 7075 or 82

267
00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,080
and that's what you get paid for
it for that that's fixed.

268
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,880
But then you get hybrid ones as
well where you got a bit of

269
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,400
market reference bitter fixed.
And then there's obviously

270
00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,720
multiple contracts that's for
for different bits of pounds.

271
00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:17,080
So it's like a freaking, it's a
bloody maze, but there.

272
00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:19,200
Yeah, that's the difference
between market reference and

273
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:20,280
fixed.
OK, cool.

274
00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,720
So yes, we'll that'll be very
interesting to see because I

275
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:28,280
think Kameka will be feeling the
pinch because you know there as

276
00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:33,080
you can see, it looks like the
Westinghouse division runs out

277
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,160
of net loss at the moment.
Obviously a lot of capital going

278
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:42,640
into that, you know, the
uranium, the production save and

279
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,680
that's where they're, you know
where their profit is coming

280
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,400
from.
So that is and if it's market

281
00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,520
reference and they got a lot of
years until they really get rid

282
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,960
of those old contracts and start
getting the benefit of the new

283
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,120
ones.
As you can see by 2028, even if

284
00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:01,160
the spot price is 120, they're
gonna get paid 77 a pound.

285
00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,320
That's these are predicted
prices.

286
00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,520
That is not the exact one, but
that's their sort of they update

287
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,600
that every quarter.
OK, there you go.

288
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,000
God bit of bloody.
Are you feeling the yellow cake

289
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,680
in your GC?
I'm feeling it.

290
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:17,880
Have you got any at the moment?
No you don't.

291
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,960
Any in the GCETF.
No, no.

292
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,880
Oh no.
I've ain't got an explorer.

293
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,440
But nothing, nothing bloody.
I'm I'm, I'm still passionate

294
00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,040
about it, but still interesting.
I feel the passion.

295
00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,280
Oh, I.
Love it.

296
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,680
Now here's the another next
snippet I wanna play.

297
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,720
I found this one.
This was Now these are

298
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,520
hypotheticals.
There's no names mentioned here

299
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,680
strategically, but we're going
to do some hypotheticals.

300
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:43,520
Let's say who you think he's
talking about.

301
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,440
Right now, I don't see anything
out there in the development

302
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,560
phase that we could acquire that
makes any sense at all.

303
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,840
So we just look at our portfolio
different.

304
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,360
We know where our pounds are
going to come from.

305
00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,480
We're open to a whole bunch of
different models.

306
00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,440
We just see a bunch of assets
out there that are not coming on

307
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,000
that time frame, They're not
coming on that schedule.

308
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,720
There's a lot of hurt coming to
those investors and they're, you

309
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,480
know, at, at that point our
phone might ring because someone

310
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,800
might say, hey, maybe we should
call the only guys who actually

311
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:23,599
mine in the Athabaska Basin.
Look, I, I, I, I get the game.

312
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,240
You know, you, you've got to
distinguish yourself somehow

313
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:30,640
from a bunch of others.
And, and generally

314
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:36,040
distinguishing, distinguishing
oneself requires all sorts of

315
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,960
inflated adjectives, world
class, elite, all of these

316
00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,440
adjectives that you know,
somebody who's never done it

317
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:44,520
before probably shouldn't be
using.

318
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,360
That's one way to distinguish
yourself.

319
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,120
But the other way is just to say
you're going to do it better

320
00:17:51,120 --> 00:17:53,280
than anybody's ever done it in
history.

321
00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:58,040
And The thing is we don't have
to take those views what, what

322
00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,720
we simply do.
And, and, and I, I mean this in,

323
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,880
in a very modest sense, we
simply apply our own experience.

324
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,320
We apply our own experience how
long it takes to get licenses

325
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,600
and permits.
And we apply our own experience

326
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,160
how long it takes to build a
Greenfield mine because we've

327
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,040
done the last couple of
Greenfield mines in the

328
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:21,320
Athabaska Basin and, and to
build a Greenfield mill and, and

329
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,600
to revitalize a mill.
And, and when people are

330
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,160
proposing, they're building,
they're going to build a

331
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:30,840
Greenfield mill, you know, the
same size as McLean Lake, you

332
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,440
know, almost the same size as,
sorry, the same size as Key

333
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,400
Lake, almost the same size as
McLean Lake.

334
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:44,320
And they're going to do it for
1/3 of the mine of the mills

335
00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:46,600
sustaining and replacement
capital.

336
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:51,480
Like it's just it, it begs
belief, but I, and this is just

337
00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,280
an empirical problem.
This will be solved by evidence.

338
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,960
And, and our view is there's a
lot of hyper promotion and we

339
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,360
understand why.
We understand why, but we don't

340
00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:04,480
get caught up in it.
We don't have to get caught up

341
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,720
in it.
Yeah, right.

342
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:12,880
It is a pretty Now you could
say, let's say hypothetically he

343
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:17,120
was talking about next Gen.
They're Athabasca Basin

344
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,320
neighbor.
Well, yeah, like sort of

345
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,240
neighbor on the other side, on
the other side, the Athabasca,

346
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,240
like just hypothetically it's
fair.

347
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,920
Like we're and especially
talking about the inflated

348
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,160
adjectives shouldn't be used by
people that haven't done it

349
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,600
before.
So there's a lot of reference to

350
00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,200
yeah, experience and having done
it before and and and those

351
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:44,400
sorts of phrases.
I think, I think fascinating.

352
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:45,800
Yeah.
I think you wouldn't.

353
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,720
You wouldn't think if he was
hypothetically talking about

354
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,880
next Gen. they wouldn't be.
They don't look like they'd be

355
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,920
doing a deal right now, put it
that way.

356
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,200
Because you don't.
You don't really do a deal with

357
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,000
someone that's hanging shit on
you.

358
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,280
I can't, cannot see that
happening anytime soon.

359
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,840
They're and they're, you know,
they're honing in on the

360
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:11,720
promotion, the wishful thinking
on CapEx spend and the timeline.

361
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,840
So maybe they would look at it
cheaper in the future, which was

362
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,160
which he also outlined that
they, you know, look at value,

363
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:26,680
they are the logical owner of an
asset like that being as the O

364
00:20:27,120 --> 00:20:29,800
the OG uranium miner in the
Athabasca Basin.

365
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,520
But you know, I what did you
take from that GC?

366
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:39,520
Yeah, no, I think, well, he
didn't mention names as as I

367
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,560
think it was.
It's all hot, very pretty

368
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:47,600
reasonable to sort of infer from
those comments or who he was

369
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,600
talking about.
But you know, there are, I mean,

370
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,640
they're, they're in the they're
in the same region.

371
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:58,680
It does sort of make sense, but
it's, it's, it's like a lot of

372
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,920
other development players in
other commodities as well where,

373
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,680
you know, the, the tried and
tested sort of producer sort of

374
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,360
sees there's interesting, you
know, development players come

375
00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:13,120
online, perhaps they have a bit
of difficulty with, you know,

376
00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,680
ramp up or development, things
like that.

377
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,120
And that's where that value play
comes in and they can sort of

378
00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:21,040
collect them should they choose
to at at that point.

379
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,360
So that doesn't really surprise
me.

380
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,440
No.
And you look at look at value in

381
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:32,120
terms of OK, BHP paid Canadian 4
1/2 billion for FILO.

382
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,080
That's and that's, you know,
long, long life, lot of

383
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,960
opportunity there.
You know, next Gen. has that at

384
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,640
the moment based on what it's
proven up.

385
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,120
It's got that seven years of
high grade that seven years of

386
00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:48,440
£30 million.
But after that it's not, I think

387
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,840
there's a lot more to be proven
up and a lot more like they

388
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,400
won't, they don't sustain that
level for a long time.

389
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,560
You know, their market cap at
the moment, what is it, 5 and a

390
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:03,960
bit Canadian billion.
So you just cannot see, you just

391
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:08,160
can't really see anyone really
coughing up right now 7810

392
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,840
billion Canadian like because
it's you know, it's not at

393
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,880
record highs at the moment, but
it'd need a bloody good premium

394
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,560
I think to be to be taken out.
I just cannot see that

395
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:21,520
happening, especially, you know,
approval is coming up possibly

396
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,160
this quarter, maybe like looks
like the final administrative

397
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,800
part for the approval is just
what's needed like the leg works

398
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,160
being done there.
So that's going to be a big a

399
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,440
big catalyst for them.
And you would think logically

400
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,000
that you'd think that would
drive the price higher, but you

401
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:42,480
know, they're sitting at near
all time highs with this.

402
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,160
You know, even though the the
term prices increase, the spot

403
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:50,120
price has decreased with which
is a is a sentiment thing, but

404
00:22:50,120 --> 00:22:52,720
everything is still bullish.
But you know, you know, they

405
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,760
might have to pay bloody 10
billion to take them out.

406
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:58,480
Which I don't still have the
CapEx to spend as well to build

407
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,400
the thing too.
Yeah, yeah, which I think

408
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,560
they've got it Canadian two and
a bit.

409
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,960
So Chuck a heap a bloody Mayo on
the top of that.

410
00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:08,200
But I reckon post approval there
could be.

411
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,200
But you you could throw a
frigging curve.

412
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:14,040
They next Gen. might throw a
curveball out and not sit there

413
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,600
And what?
Well, look at what's happened

414
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:21,880
with Paladin fishing.
So fission is it's not arrow

415
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,000
equivalent, but it's, you know,
it's next door.

416
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,760
It's a still a decent uranium
deposit.

417
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,640
Paladin are the they got the
restart project in Langar

418
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,600
Heinrich.
They've merged them together.

419
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,560
You know, the whole theory
behind.

420
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:38,680
Yeah, well, you know, obviously
the more more flows when you're

421
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,320
bigger JC.
But you know, I think it worked

422
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,280
out.
It was it 76, I think percent

423
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:50,160
Paladin, 24% fission.
Use the pending cash flows from

424
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,280
Lang Heinrich to help assist
fund fission in the future.

425
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,240
Fund the development of the PLS.
Maybe next Gen. could do the

426
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,400
same.
Next Gen. like especially when

427
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,320
they're at bloody, you know,
near all time highs in and

428
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,600
there's, you know, post approval
that could go high.

429
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,000
This script is pretty bloody
valuable.

430
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,200
They reckon they'd be the
acquirer.

431
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,360
Well no they no I.
I reckon next Gen.

432
00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:18,360
Might look to use to do
something with their script if

433
00:24:18,360 --> 00:24:19,920
it's that.
Yeah, that's what I mean, yeah.

434
00:24:20,360 --> 00:24:22,840
Or what if what's the equivalent
of Paladin?

435
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,520
There's not many producers
around.

436
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:30,960
No boss.
He's from SA.

437
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,800
He's went to uni in South
Australia.

438
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,840
I think he's born in Melbourne,
Lee, but he's from South

439
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,720
Australia.
Honeymoon's in South Australia.

440
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,240
If you're it's it's sort of the
same theory.

441
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:45,600
Use a bit of the it's not gonna
it's probably only a small chunk

442
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,640
of it, but pending the future
cash flows of honeymoon can help

443
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:55,640
assist the development of arrow.
It's not going to wouldn't cover

444
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,600
the bloody whole thing, but it
sure as hell they.

445
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,240
Subsidise it a bit.
They've bloody they've just

446
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,640
rebuild a plant in honeymoon.
So you actually bring in a lot

447
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,800
of a bit of operational people
that have actually, you know,

448
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,920
they've they didn't a lot of a
lot of the plant was there, but

449
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,680
they did convert it from solvent
extraction plan into an IX

450
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,800
plant.
A lot of similarities in the

451
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,880
processing.
Like you look at the flow sheet

452
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,040
for next Gen., like there's a
whole leaching phase, which is,

453
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,640
you know, adding sulfuric acid,
hydrogen per peroxide, the

454
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:32,280
ferric like the oxidizing agents
to leach the uranium out exactly

455
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,960
the same as what gets flushed
through the paleo channel at an

456
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,520
ISR project.
So I think they do solve an

457
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,400
extraction after that, which is,
you know, the kerosene version

458
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,000
instead of ion exchange.
So, but like there's you know,

459
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,160
they've got the operational side
that they could then transfer

460
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,520
over to help build the arrow
projects.

461
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:59,960
That's sort of answers grants
hypothetical challenges posing

462
00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:01,720
that they haven't built a mill
before.

463
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,040
And I think the actual if they
if you did join them together,

464
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:10,800
the dilution would be to next
Gen. will be heaps less than it

465
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,560
was to Paladin because I think
what are their relative market

466
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:16,160
caps?
I think next gen's market caps

467
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:17,640
about 6 bill Aussie at the
moment.

468
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:22,280
Boss is 1.35 S.
The pro forma would be bloody at

469
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,200
a minimum 8020 like so it
wouldn't actually be as

470
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,280
dilutive.
I don't know but.

471
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:34,520
Do you think mining in in
processing in the Athabaska at a

472
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:41,080
scale that's much bigger
compared to Adelaide at a

473
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,080
smaller scale I mean?
All right, tight, the mining's

474
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,720
you'd need a whole new mining
team like if you were gonna do

475
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,160
the actual that's the the mining
side is one thing, like the

476
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,560
processing's one thing.
That's it.

477
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,120
The only expertise you get to be
for the processing of it, the

478
00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:01,440
whole the mining of it.
That is like a that is the

479
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,960
biggest challenge there,
especially like the the whole

480
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:08,880
tilings, the tiling side, like
the underground backfill side,

481
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,240
like the trying to bloody that'd
be freezing all like to try and

482
00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:17,600
like all or automated mining
like at least you'd you'd sort

483
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,080
that you'd be ticking off the
plant.

484
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,200
But at the moment they've got, I
don't know what expertise

485
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,840
they've got in terms of you know
what, they should take over an

486
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,360
underground mining company as
well.

487
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:28,880
Yeah, what?
What's if they can help?

488
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,680
If they could get boss for the
plant and then take over,

489
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,040
They've got friggin, you know,
script will be worth bloody

490
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,480
shit.
Like script will be high.

491
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,880
They might as well take over.
How could they take over in

492
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,000
Canada?
Might as well just get Newmont

493
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:42,200
while you're at it.
Yeah, just.

494
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,960
'Cause I just wonder, like how
much experience and sort of cash

495
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:54,640
flow you can, like how much of
that is really gonna help, you

496
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,600
know, in this hypothetical, you
know, how much, you know, for

497
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,400
how much, you know, say if they
were doing it through, you know,

498
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,840
using their script, how much
dilution they'd have to do to

499
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,720
sort of get some experience and
get some cash flow to subsidise

500
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:08,280
the development.
I don't know.

501
00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:12,480
Yeah, I think the the mining big
job mining outweighs well see

502
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,360
what are they gonna do?
They're like either gonna if

503
00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:19,560
not, if they're if they remain
too highly valued and no like

504
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:23,240
and no one's going to buy them
at because they're so, so

505
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,200
expensive.
Like, yeah, the value is there

506
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,840
for the uranium unless like a,
you know, an Orano comes along

507
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:34,560
or like someone really takes a
big a big swing at it or buys a

508
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,600
a part of the project.
I'm not sure.

509
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,160
But it's like if no one's going
to buy them like that is such a

510
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,720
such a big feat to take on.
Like they nearly need to, they

511
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,560
need to, that's a lot of people
to recruit there unless they

512
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,720
start pin.
Maybe after that YouTube

513
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,720
interview, they'll start
recruiting all the Kamiko

514
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:52,480
people.
Well, this will get you back.

515
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:53,880
We'll start pinching all your
people.

516
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,680
But it's it's getting the, you
know, the technical experience,

517
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,760
but then you need the local
experience as yeah, I think my

518
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:07,680
hypothetical is, I reckon 10 to
15% of the what's needed, it's

519
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:12,080
the local mining and bloody.
Permitting and the.

520
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,880
Whole region that just the just
trying to figure out how to

521
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:21,840
bloody build something in -40°
like it is a big feat so

522
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,200
absolutely anyway it's been
recorded I.

523
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,760
Check it on the dartboard.
Happens of hey, you never know,

524
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,400
it's just it might solve just a
just processing and a bit of

525
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:33,960
cash.
Why not?

526
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,440
Why not?
Why not?

527
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,560
I don't know.
All right, Well, yeah, I don't.

528
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,720
It's just after hearing that I
don't think chemical are going

529
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,960
to take them.
Not just yet, at least.

530
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,440
Anyway, it doesn't seem like.
It but then when like in terms

531
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,880
of waiting for value, like
after, you know, construction

532
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,840
ramp up and that that could be
bloody.

533
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:53,840
Years away.
Oh.

534
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,120
That could be like 20-30.
One, but it doesn't sound like

535
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,680
they're in a particular rush
though.

536
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:05,200
Nah and like they've got to they
won't know what ramp up is until

537
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:11,040
they're producing, which is like
after mining down 600 odd metres

538
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,800
underground with shafts need all
the, you know, the backfill

539
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:20,240
areas in place.
Like it is a huge, huge project

540
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,200
to get down there.
So oh God, I don't even know if

541
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:28,240
there will even be a bloody
podcast by the time by the time

542
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,800
that's bloody producer.
Who knows, we might all be on to

543
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,360
something else by then, who
knows, who knows.

544
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:37,240
So we'll we will wait and see.
Absolutely.

545
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:43,440
Oh, just anyway, buddy, although
the one the one difference, but

546
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,680
well, the one thing that won't
apply between friggin ISR and

547
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,840
because it's Hard Rock over
there is like like as the

548
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,960
shafts.
You got to pay all the shafts

549
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,600
like the the power is a lot more
of a cost.

550
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,560
You got to between the shafts,
the crushes, the bloody jumbos

551
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,720
underground, the ventilation
ventilation will be huge.

552
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,200
Just bloody power everywhere.
Global independent power

553
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,040
producer, cross boundary energy.
I think they should be on the

554
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:10,800
ticket.
JC.

555
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,920
Oh absolutely.
Back for another round.

556
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,360
I think they might might go to
the Athabaska to throw in a

557
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,400
quote.
Welcome back CBE, Get a quote to

558
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,200
the Athabaska.
Can you imagine after this

559
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:27,080
episode if if next Gen. takeover
boss and CBE do the power plant

560
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,040
for next Gen.
Like how good is that?

561
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,800
How good would I look?
I look like a friggin genius.

562
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,080
Oh, but trusted name in
international power GC and

563
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,320
they're now in Australia.
They were last year too when

564
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,480
we're talking about them.
So right you could you could say

565
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:48,040
mine sites are powered by CBE,
but CBE Australia is powered by

566
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,000
Tim Taylor.
I love it.

567
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,000
Hybrid power stations are their
jam.

568
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,520
Build, own and operate.
Give them a buzz.

569
00:31:55,560 --> 00:32:02,320
Go CBE, right OGC, let's head to
Coba for you know, it's only

570
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:04,360
just clicked to me why they're
called Poly metals.

571
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,600
Why's that?
Well, it's like, you know.

572
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:09,280
Multiple metals.
LED zinc lights all.

573
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,760
It's in the name, isn't it?
Silver lights.

574
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:14,840
There you go.
What?

575
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,800
A great what a great find today.
Oh.

576
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,360
Bloody hell.
Anyway, just take it away.

577
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,280
Alrighty.
So just wanted to touch on this

578
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,680
one today because so this is a
Poly metals capital raise $35

579
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,440
million.
It had a bit of an unusual start

580
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:35,400
to launching it's capital raise
the other day, but also exciting

581
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,400
is we'll hopefully be seeing
another Aussie base metals

582
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,160
restart getting restarted,
restarted next quarter.

583
00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:48,000
And they're mining Poly metals.
Yeah, and that's it.

584
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,680
So as I mentioned before, Poly
Metals raised 35,000,000 bucks

585
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,760
at $0.80 a share to progress
their endeavour, restart

586
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,880
activities and accelerate
exploration.

587
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,680
So it was done at reasonably
tight discounts to last close

588
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,200
in, in V WAP.
They also launched a 3.2 million

589
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,880
share purchase plan SPP.
They raised Quantum's about 22%

590
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:13,800
of their their current market
market caps of around 160

591
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,560
million early today.
So what are they sort of getting

592
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,160
into the details on the use of
funds here?

593
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:23,360
So if you look at slide six of
their investor presser, it says

594
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,520
35,000,000 institutional
placement to accelerate near

595
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,000
mine and regional exploration
and in just across from it in

596
00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:33,840
slightly smaller text funds will
also provide additional working

597
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,040
capital as endeavour transitions
into production.

598
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,240
So yes, there are funds
certainly going to exploration,

599
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:44,880
but if you flick a few slides
further down to slide 12, you

600
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:48,040
can see actually the majority of
those funds are going to

601
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:54,040
basically working capital, you
know balance sheet strength as

602
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,680
they call it.
So, so it's probably probably a

603
00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:00,800
bit the other way around, but
you can see there between the

604
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,240
equity raising proceeds their
their cash at 31 December and

605
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:09,120
some undrawn financing
facilities that'll pretty much

606
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:12,239
look after the remaining restart
capital They've got for

607
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:17,520
Endeavour that out of 22,000,000
dollars, $10 million worth of

608
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,600
near mine and regional
exploration work and then the 34

609
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,400
million out of corporate general
working cap and and offer costs.

610
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:29,040
So they reckon that remaining
CapEx component, that 22 mil is

611
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,159
capable of being funded from
basically the rest of their

612
00:34:33,159 --> 00:34:35,960
prepayment facility from Ocean
Partners.

613
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,440
So that was US 20 mil.
They drew down US 5 mil of that

614
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,840
in December.
So they got US15 of that to go.

615
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:48,400
So they post all of this raise,
they'll end up with a pro forma

616
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,840
cash position of 37 million and
they've still got, you know,

617
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,440
undrawn debt facilities around
26,000,000.

618
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:58,280
So the balance sheet must have
been running pretty tight if the

619
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,200
pro forma cash is 37 after
raising sort of gross proceeds

620
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:06,640
of of 35.
But they've certainly done well

621
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:11,040
to raise, you know,
predominantly for balance sheet

622
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:15,880
strength, you know purposes at
a, at a decent issue price of

623
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,000
$0.80 a share.
I mean, there, if you look at

624
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,680
the share price graph here, you
know, that's sort of, you know,

625
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,560
12 month high dollar and one
cent.

626
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,600
It was only sub $0.40 only a few
months ago really in in

627
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:28,600
September.
Oh, awesome.

628
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:29,480
RIP.
That's whatever.

629
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,960
Yeah.
But going back to sort of the

630
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,280
start of the capital raise, bit
of a bumpy start to launching

631
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,280
it.
So check out the timestamp of

632
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:45,880
this Street Talk article at 1:09
last week on the 6th of February

633
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:51,080
and check out the sort of the
ASICS announcements for Poly

634
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,320
metals.
You can see very promptly at

635
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:59,080
1:55 a pause and trading's come
out and then soon after a a

636
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:01,520
trading halt.
So it's not not the most ideal

637
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,520
way to launch a capital raiser,
but it looks like they

638
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,960
ultimately got it across the
line.

639
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:10,880
So that's, that's Sydney, that's
in the market time, yeah.

640
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,280
That's so that's over east time.
Over East time, yeah, that's.

641
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:19,640
Right, Jesus Christ.
And that's oh.

642
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:24,560
Which look, it's it's yeah,
sometimes can happen, but yeah,

643
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:26,400
they'll obviously got it away
anyway.

644
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:31,520
Just bloody it's, I don't know.
I don't know how I feel about

645
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,000
them putting articles out during
market hours.

646
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,040
Yeah, it's if.
They're not in trading out yet.

647
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,320
That doesn't sit right with me.
Yeah, it's certainly not ideal.

648
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:44,000
That can cost people cash.
So I think, 'cause I think the

649
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:47,160
share price did trade down a a
little bit once they come out,

650
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,000
but because of how sort of
reasonably quickly the pause in

651
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,840
shaded come through sort of
stopped that.

652
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,320
Reasonably quickly.
I could sell a few shares in

653
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:58,000
bloody 46 minutes.
Yeah, yeah.

654
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,680
Yes, anyway.
So bit of background on on Poly

655
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,800
metals and the Endeavour mines.
So like I mentioned before,

656
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:09,600
about 160 million market cap
company, they're restarting the

657
00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:14,160
Endeavour's silver zinc mine in,
in the Coba that's in in NSW.

658
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,400
So they actually completed the
acquisition of the asset and and

659
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,080
a completed a mine plan for it
last August.

660
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:25,440
So just flash up a a slide of so
the outcomes of that so

661
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:31,720
producing 10.6 million ounces of
payable silver, 260,000 tonnes

662
00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:35,440
of papal zinc and 90,000 tonnes
of payable LED over an initial

663
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,800
10 year mine life.
So they're like you could say

664
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,120
that they're going to be zinc
neutral like 'cause you think of

665
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,560
the zinc they're mining, 'cause
they're gonna be jam and Sandvik

666
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:49,000
ground support in which is zinc
coated for the galvanizing.

667
00:37:49,720 --> 00:37:52,320
And then they're gonna every
bolt they put in, they're

668
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,240
producing the zinc.
So they're going to, they're

669
00:37:54,240 --> 00:38:00,240
going to be a net, a net Zinc 0
operation as I said.

670
00:38:00,240 --> 00:38:02,560
A net 0 zinc producer.
Net 0 zinc.

671
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:06,360
It's like they're going to be
producing green zinc like.

672
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:10,840
That is such a useful statistic
that I I didn't need.

673
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,800
No, I needed.
Some of the greatest zinc mines,

674
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,920
like you know, George Fisher or
anyway anywhere else that

675
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:20,600
produces zinc, Woodlawn, they're
going to be producing green

676
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,360
zinc.
It's going to be because they're

677
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,000
going to be jamming in Sandvik
ground support, the only ground

678
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,520
support you choose to jam in,
and you're going to be sending

679
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,880
Sandvik the zinc as well.
So it's just everyone.

680
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,800
Sandvik's winning.
Poly Metals is winning.

681
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,480
Everyone's winning.
It's like a complete circle life

682
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:40,000
cycle of zinc.
Is it go zinc?

683
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:43,160
Who said zinc?
Zinc if you you just need to

684
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,400
change the way you think about
zinc, just think about Sambic

685
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,360
ground support.
That was I like the note in the

686
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:51,920
show notes, the surprise Sandvik
ad.

687
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:55,360
That was a surprise.
I like the element of surprise

688
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:57,000
with the ad.
Stand it was good fun it.

689
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:59,200
Just means I don't have to write
them out, I'll just say

690
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:00,840
whatever.
Comes up here it's.

691
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,120
All good.
Oh anyway, sorry to interrupt.

692
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,120
No, you're good.
And then so, yeah, so they'll,

693
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:13,120
they'll generate 609,000,000
predex free cash flow and a $414

694
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:18,280
million pretax MPV 8 from that.
And they're just looking across

695
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:23,000
the time on sort of they started
to see that big share price run

696
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,040
sort of late September, early
October.

697
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:30,920
So they had a had a big hit at
at Endeavour 67 metres at 517g

698
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,840
per tonne silver equivalent.
Then sort of shortly after that

699
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:38,360
completed the project finance,
which we mentioned earlier US 20

700
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,600
million prepaid from Ocean
Partners.

701
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:45,360
I actually love their, their
project ramp up updates.

702
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:50,680
They, they, they've got the
whole like mega trend really

703
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,360
leading into it.
They're going for a mega make

704
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:57,760
endeavour great again, really in
the whole restart and mega

705
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,640
themes.
So I love that in their in their

706
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,040
last ramp up progress update
early this month, I said, you

707
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,960
know, surf and underground works
will progress in a plan, mobile

708
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:10,440
fleet deliveries continuing,
recruiting ongoing.

709
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,640
And they're sort of working on
re establishing access to the

710
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:19,320
high grade silver Upper North
Road and they're targeting first

711
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:25,080
silver and zinc production in
April 2025 with first cashless

712
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:29,440
month after.
But yeah, you know the yeah,

713
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:33,800
like I said, it's pretty much up
to 100% from last September.

714
00:40:34,240 --> 00:40:37,600
Yeah, but the commodity prices
have gone up a bit as well too.

715
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,800
You know, silver's up 42% in the
last 12 months.

716
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,440
It's about 32 bucks an ounce.
US at the minute, zinc, even

717
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,560
zinc's gone up boring old zinc.
So you know gone up about 20%

718
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:51,480
last 12 months about in the two
eights USA tonne at at the

719
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:56,440
minute Mac copper or as as
previously known Metals

720
00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:01,960
Acquisition Corp actually has a
shareholding in Poly Metals as

721
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,480
well.
So.

722
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,880
Quite logical, yeah.
So logical 1, you don't need

723
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,440
geography doesn't apply in M&A
these days.

724
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,160
Don't worry about geographical
synergies.

725
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:17,120
We're doing bloody, just go out
Paladin Vision next Gen. boss

726
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,200
Westgold Korora.
Don't worry about geography.

727
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:25,280
It's all good.
So yeah, they, they took a 4.3%

728
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:29,840
stake in in Poly metal was about
nine months ago at $0.35 a share

729
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,880
for 2 1/2 bill.
So they've made some good bank

730
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:37,560
on that one.
But they can invest another 2

731
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:42,520
1/2 mil at $0.35 a share when
certain conditions precedent CPS

732
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,360
are met.
So if we'll flash up the the

733
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,680
screen grab there from the
announcement back in May of last

734
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,480
year.
So and one of those being

735
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:54,720
polymetals securing sufficient
funding to restart the Endeavour

736
00:41:54,720 --> 00:41:57,800
mine and processing plant.
And they're also sort of looking

737
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,920
at entering a tolling agreement
together to treat the zinc ore

738
00:42:02,720 --> 00:42:10,000
at Mac's plant and also a water
offtake agreement where Mac can

739
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:15,240
draw some water from the
Endeavour mine pipeline.

740
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,440
So I imagine now most of those
should with this funding, I

741
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,400
imagine all of those CPS would
have been probably ticked off.

742
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,720
I guess I'm not too sure, but
just having I just wanted to

743
00:42:27,720 --> 00:42:32,720
refresh myself where Mac or the
CSA mine is sort of in in

744
00:42:32,720 --> 00:42:36,520
relation to endeavour.
And it looks like about roughly

745
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:42,440
30 cases as a as a crow flies in
in this image here in the Holly

746
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,040
Metals Prezo.
But yeah, hopefully they can get

747
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:48,800
their restart over the line
without sort of any further

748
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:53,680
funding develops Woodlawn
actually, because I thought, oh,

749
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:59,760
surely this would be, you know,
you know, the most recent base

750
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,080
metals sort of race start sort
of coming back online.

751
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:08,240
But Woodlawn's due, you know,
for first production and and

752
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,000
cash flow in the June quarter as
well.

753
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,400
I'm a Ding, Ding on, on develop,
but yeah, I'll be curious to see

754
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,000
who will be first develop or
Poly metals.

755
00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:20,360
So yeah, no good to see some
action back in base metals

756
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:21,280
again.
Yeah.

757
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:24,800
And isn't it funny looking at
like develop and Mac like

758
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:30,840
considering the whole how Mac
became Mac with Bill being

759
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:38,680
involved in the the SPAC, you'd
say to get to get bloody CSI

760
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,720
into Metals Acquisition Corp.
Now what is it?

761
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,200
Mac Copper Mac.
Copper now, yeah.

762
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:49,200
It went Metal Mails Acquisition
Corp, Metals Acquisition Limited

763
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:51,560
and then Mac Copper.
Yep.

764
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:53,280
So I got it right.
Yeah, I think that's about

765
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,720
right.
So I just wondered like and then

766
00:43:55,720 --> 00:44:00,120
that was it.
That was the link on a because

767
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,280
Mick McMullen was, he was on the
board to develop.

768
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,320
Then he obviously resigned off
the board.

769
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:09,360
And I don't know, it's just like
they've part of bikes.

770
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:12,480
I wonder if there will be any
interaction ever again, like

771
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:16,760
developed getting a contract
there or rather than who who

772
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,800
knows, they've just or they're
going to be now in competition.

773
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,920
Yeah, bizarre family tree.
Oh, that's mining for you.

774
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,400
Oh.
Right there, JC, we have now.

775
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:32,520
I don't know if this is I don't
know if it's surely there's been

776
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:36,040
an on market takeover.
The the on market takeover today

777
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:42,520
between for Patronus taking over
matter proposing to it.

778
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,680
Just obviously I can.
I can't think of what if there's

779
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:50,080
been any sense while you taking
over Mincore because that was

780
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,880
the in terms of an on market
takeover with the big huge

781
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,760
byline order.
Sitting on screen.

782
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,360
Shit loads of hundreds of
millions of shares sitting on

783
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,760
screen.
I'm sure the M&A bankers in the

784
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:04,240
audience will be sure to let us
know, but yeah, no.

785
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,600
Well, Ben Bailey about that,
yeah, I'm sure he knows I'll

786
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:10,360
probably, there's probably been
like fucking 8 or 9, but.

787
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,240
It's no, you're right.
They're definitely on the on the

788
00:45:12,240 --> 00:45:16,000
rarer side.
So, so the context, yeah, as

789
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:19,800
Maddie was saying, the Patronus
announced an on market takeover

790
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:23,080
for gold developer Matzer at at
four and a half cents, sort of

791
00:45:23,080 --> 00:45:26,880
valuing Matzer at 33 million.
And so Patronus and their

792
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,840
associates, which is IE the
Delphi Deutsche Belgium group

793
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,600
already hold about 19 1/2% of
MATSA.

794
00:45:33,240 --> 00:45:35,800
And Patronus said in their
announcement today, Patronus has

795
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:37,760
made the offer with the
intention of increasing its

796
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,720
ownership in MATSA and will seek
to potentially restructure the

797
00:45:40,720 --> 00:45:43,200
existing MATSA board and
management and conduct a

798
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,800
strategic review of Matsa's
asset base.

799
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:50,120
And they appointed EUR Hartley's
broker to stand in the market to

800
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:54,400
purchase MATSA shares at the at
the offer price from today.

801
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:56,440
A bit of statement came out
today as well.

802
00:45:56,440 --> 00:46:02,000
And MATSA subsequently later
today issued a sort of a take no

803
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:05,320
action release in response to
the unsolicited takeover.

804
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,360
Now I'm not going to touch too
much on the on the deal itself

805
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:12,000
today, but what sort of caught
both of our eye is that was the

806
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,720
takeover mechanism.
Mechanism being an on market

807
00:46:14,720 --> 00:46:17,920
takeover which you rarely say
most mining deals are you know

808
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,560
more often than not an off
market takeover or by way of the

809
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,960
scheme.
So for those money miners who

810
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:28,440
are not so sure how on market
takeover bid works.

811
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:31,840
Come into the Alley GC
educational section.

812
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,640
Come.
Come into the tent.

813
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:39,120
So basically the bidder in this
example, Petrodus appoints a

814
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:43,000
stockbroker, which today's
example EUR Hartley's to stand

815
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:47,520
in the market on ASICS and
purchase the target securities,

816
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,840
which is Matson on behalf of the
bidder.

817
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:57,000
So the stockbroker places a a
buy order on the ASICS trading

818
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:01,720
platform equal to, you know, the
bidders offer price, which in

819
00:47:01,720 --> 00:47:04,800
today's offers four and a half
cents a share, all quoted

820
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,320
securities in that target it
doesn't already own.

821
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,560
And then the target shareholders
then simply sell their shares on

822
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,800
ASICS to the bidder at that
offer price, if you know, if

823
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:19,240
they choose to.
And because an on market bid is

824
00:47:19,240 --> 00:47:24,600
conducted on an ASICS trading
platform, the offer must consist

825
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:28,400
of cash consideration only and
it has to be unconditional.

826
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:30,800
And that's sort of one of the
main reasons why they're often

827
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,120
not saying because, you know,
you can't have conditions or you

828
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,320
might want to use your script.
So in that case, you can't, you

829
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,800
know, do do it that way.
Yeah, you literally need the

830
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:40,520
cash and and you've got no
choice.

831
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,520
Of and just full send it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

832
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,880
Full send.
And, and obviously the, the key

833
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:50,400
advantage of, of using going
about it this way is, is speed.

834
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,920
So, you know, you can start
buying target shares within an

835
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:57,120
hour of announcing the sort of
takeover bid to ASICS.

836
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,680
But the problem you can run into
is if the stock is trading above

837
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:05,120
the offer price, then there's no
real speed advantage because you

838
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,600
can't, you know, all the shares
can be trading, but if they're

839
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:10,880
not at the offer price, you
can't buy them and.

840
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,840
You've got people buy then
selling shares and people that

841
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:17,320
are buying them above your offer
price, they're going to be less

842
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,200
inclined to sell them at a loss.
Yeah.

843
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,120
Well, that's right.
So for example, I saw sort of

844
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,760
mats today trading in the sort
of high fours, which is.

845
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:29,320
More than the 74.8, yeah.
Which more than the offer price

846
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,200
of four and a half cents.
So correct me if I'm wrong, I

847
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:36,920
don't think any actual they
didn't increase their ownership

848
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:39,400
at all today.
I don't think any shares traded,

849
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:46,840
let's just get the final NAP.
So you can see on either the big

850
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:52,000
byline of 599,000,000 shares,
which is not all them I don't

851
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:55,360
think, but most of them are at
four and a half cents.

852
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:59,720
But everything today 2.83
million shares traded at 4.7 to

853
00:48:59,720 --> 00:49:02,480
4.8.
So they actually the price just

854
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,640
rose up 17 1/2 percent, but
nothing actually cleared at that

855
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:08,920
four and a half cents.
Today, yeah.

856
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:13,560
So you can with on market
takeover bids, you can increase

857
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:17,440
the offer price at any time sort
of before the last five trading

858
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:21,640
days of the offer period.
But if they do, the bidder

859
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,600
doesn't need to pay that
increased consideration to

860
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:27,120
target shareholders who have
already accepted.

861
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:32,840
So say you in today's example
sold into that four and a half

862
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:36,400
cents and then you know, 3 weeks
later they up it to $0.05.

863
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,640
You know, you don't get that at
half a cent.

864
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,160
That's too bad.
You've sold your shares that's

865
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:44,040
even finished.
Yeah, the bid in these

866
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,800
scenarios, the bids often driven
by the bidder and doesn't

867
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:51,320
really, you know, require target
consent or corporation.

868
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:55,520
So they tend to, more often than
not be more hostile type deals

869
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,320
rather than friendly, unless
obviously, of course, you know,

870
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,440
the target sort of comes out and
says, yes, you know, we

871
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:03,240
recommend this deal.
Go ahead, da, da, da, da da.

872
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:08,120
I could see Kamiko and Next Gen.
being a on market takeover.

873
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,400
Oh, that's nice.
Bit a bit hostile, yeah.

874
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:14,480
And on the same day you announce
all this, you need to submit a

875
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,160
bit of statement which they did
put it out today in today's

876
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:21,560
example on the targets has to
respond in in two weeks to that.

877
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:25,440
So it'll be interesting to say
how this deal plays out given

878
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:29,360
like where the share price is,
has been trading relative to the

879
00:50:29,360 --> 00:50:33,680
offer price and and what Matt's
response is to to all of it.

880
00:50:33,680 --> 00:50:37,040
So yeah, bit of a interesting
one we don't always sort of see

881
00:50:37,360 --> 00:50:40,200
day-to-day, but.
He, I suppose, I suppose

882
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,960
Petronas had to figure out a way
for us to talk about him.

883
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,600
So there's a lot, a lot to go
on.

884
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:48,520
Maybe 'cause you think back to
the Minkor Wailu thing.

885
00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:51,800
Yes, they put in the Dollar 40
offer and then it started

886
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,640
trading above 'cause there was
the thought that that was nickel

887
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,960
Mania time.
They were thinking that, you

888
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:57,920
know.
Something else going?

889
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,760
To come in.
But then BHP gave Wailu the gift

890
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:06,040
in saying that some, I think it
was some of the minkor or what

891
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,840
was stockpiled separately or
wasn't accepted due to the high

892
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:14,120
arsenic levels.
And once that news, once that

893
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:19,200
news came out, Wailu said Nah,
dollar 40, best and final and

894
00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:20,400
cause.
That and then everyone sort of

895
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,520
sold into that, didn't they?
Yeah, yeah, everyone.

896
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:25,280
Yeah.
So that cause and then I know

897
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,560
there was mechanisms around
'cause once you go best and

898
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,400
final you can't obviously.
No, that's it.

899
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,280
That's.
Go up anymore and then so it

900
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:36,160
worked out good good for him.
So this is obviously day one of

901
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:39,040
this, so we will.
Wait and see, keep an eye on it,

902
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,360
yeah.
Oh quick around the grounds,

903
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,800
can't wait till the boys get
back and bloody all these half

904
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,480
One Financial results like
talking that's.

905
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:52,040
Their that's.
For sure underlying statutory

906
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:56,280
profit loss.
Look, not that I don't care, but

907
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,360
it's not my.
I'd rather just talk about

908
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:02,040
uranium speculation and
underground mining like

909
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,800
geometry.
Everyone's got their coming to

910
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,680
you, buddy.
We'll limp limped through it

911
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:09,800
bloody.
Also because Pilbara sort of

912
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,000
they've pre.
I don't know is this a thing

913
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,320
pre?
Reporting of reporting pre.

914
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,320
Reporting financial results
instead of pre reporting

915
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:22,280
production.
So pre reporting EBITDA of 71 to

916
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:26,080
75,000,000 for half one, but a
net loss of.

917
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:31,360
So an underlying net loss
estimated of five to seven

918
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,360
million.
So because I think they're the

919
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,480
carrying value of let me say it
without reading it, see how

920
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:42,320
smart I am, but like the the
call option to purchase the

921
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,360
extra in the POSCO JV that the
carrying value of that has been

922
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:53,760
reduced, which obviously then is
like a statutory loss.

923
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,240
Yes, it impacts your pay now,
that's right.

924
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:57,760
Yeah.
So that's what that's why I say

925
00:52:57,760 --> 00:53:01,400
their statutory loss is greater
than their underlying net loss.

926
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:05,840
Underlying is just from the
operations and the CapEx and

927
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:09,200
bloody everything with the
carrying value that's a non cash

928
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:10,360
reduction.
Yeah.

929
00:53:10,680 --> 00:53:15,160
So it's just interesting because
even despite their sort of

930
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:19,520
roughly, you know, US 400 bucks
a tonne F of a unit cost for,

931
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:23,200
for the first half of this year,
so far they've got $1.2 billion

932
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:28,760
cash a bank and they're still,
you know, practically just shy

933
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,240
of, you know, breaking even on
on an underlying basis.

934
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:35,920
So Jesus, what are that?
You know, that the implications

935
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,840
for sort of other lithium, you
know, players or, you know,

936
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:44,640
lithium spod players in
particular, it's sort of, yeah,

937
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:48,120
sort of not, not awfully great.
Well, I think and like prep to

938
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:51,920
prep everyone for the financial
results like when they talk

939
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:56,440
about EBITDAR that's you know,
like I, I think a rule of thumb,

940
00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,520
I don't think it's exactly the
same, but like a gold miner's

941
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:02,280
EBITDAR, if you take the all in
sustaining cost away from the

942
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:06,000
sale price, effectively that
margin is your EBITDAR, but it

943
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:10,160
doesn't include all the CapEx
and the corporate overheads.

944
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:11,840
Yeah.
And all that, but it's.

945
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,680
A rough rule of thumb.
Yeah, so you could have positive

946
00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:18,360
EBITDAR, but if you spend a shit
load of capital, it doesn't you

947
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:22,920
still lose money.
It's AI think it's an I don't

948
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,960
know how the best to explain it,
but the what did they say?

949
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:29,520
Was it bloody Charlie Munger or
Warren Buffett saying EBITDAR is

950
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,360
not the calculation to use in a
capital intensive business?

951
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:37,360
Which mining is?
What is it bullshit earnings?

952
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,600
Bullshit earnings?
That's what he called EBITDA is

953
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,640
bullshit earnings.
Oh no, always, always.

954
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,400
I like looking at at Cash, Cash
in, cash out personally.

955
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,280
Yeah.
But then they, but a lot of when

956
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:51,680
they talk about company
valuations are on EV to EBITDA

957
00:54:51,880 --> 00:54:55,720
multiple that I suppose that's
how they look at, you know, how

958
00:54:55,720 --> 00:54:58,000
much money the operations make.
Yeah.

959
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:03,160
So yeah, I'll stop talking
'cause I'll of the more more

960
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,360
I'll talk digger the diaper.
I'll dig.

961
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:09,040
No, you're all right.
And then the the last one for

962
00:55:09,040 --> 00:55:15,480
today was we saw the sort of the
a, a flagged in a UBS note out

963
00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:19,040
into last week saying that
CATLS, the pedalite mine in

964
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:25,800
Jiangxi is apparently currently
resuming operations according to

965
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:29,360
Shanghai Metals market.
It's sort of featured in the in

966
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:32,680
the AFR today as well.
So apparently they're sort of

967
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:35,240
suspended operations there last
September.

968
00:55:35,240 --> 00:55:41,160
So, you know, off the that, you
know, on that news sort of last

969
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:45,160
Friday, you know, Hillbra Blind
town means RGO, their share

970
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:46,800
prices all came off a few
percent.

971
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,880
They're all sort of flattish
today.

972
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:55,960
You know, why resume operations
at at prices close to where they

973
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,360
were, you know, when that was
sort of suspended operations

974
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,720
that sort of suggested maybe due
to low inventories, you know,

975
00:56:02,720 --> 00:56:06,440
trying to mix with high grade
or, you know, reducing, you

976
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:09,800
know, sort of unit costs and
sort of that sort of a thing.

977
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:14,080
You know, according to the
latest production sort of stats

978
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:18,240
from CMM, this mine could
contribute sort of five to 6000

979
00:56:18,240 --> 00:56:20,920
tonnes LCE per month after it
sort of resumes.

980
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,240
So it's decent volumes.
But yeah, just the the whole

981
00:56:24,240 --> 00:56:28,320
lithium supply demand roller
coasters just just seems to

982
00:56:28,320 --> 00:56:30,800
continue, doesn't it?
Yeah, no, the IT was pretty

983
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:33,680
bearish that you UBS Snowden and
like they were saying post

984
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:36,720
Chinese New Year, like, you
know, inventories were were low,

985
00:56:36,720 --> 00:56:40,000
which has sort of given a bit of
a tick up in the lift price.

986
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,280
And but now this little bit of
light mine restarting and yeah,

987
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:47,400
they reckon it might be they're
they're predicting it being a

988
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:50,040
bit under pressure.
Taking it going.

989
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:55,280
Forward so, but we will wait and
see the the Chinese bloody

990
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,640
lapidolite tap.
They can turn on and off

991
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:03,600
whenever they bloody want.
Yeah, or something mad might

992
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,680
happen and it might go 5X, who
knows.

993
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,560
One of the two.
Bloody who bloody knows.

994
00:57:08,800 --> 00:57:13,400
I know that I know that
Underground Operators Conference

995
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,200
is the best underground
conference in the world.

996
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,840
That is one thing I do now.
That is a fact for sure.

997
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,840
And you can get another fact is
you can get 100 bucks off using

998
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:25,760
the code MOM 100.
Link it in the show notes to the

999
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:27,440
Ozil.
MMM Underground Operators

1000
00:57:27,440 --> 00:57:30,840
Conference.
Come bloody have a beer with me.

1001
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:32,680
'Cause I'm hanging out with.
Maddie, I'm gonna be having a

1002
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:34,200
few there.
Oh, I don't.

1003
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:35,920
Mineral mining services won't be
gone.

1004
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:41,000
They're they're more an open pit
contractor, but I don't think

1005
00:57:41,000 --> 00:57:42,720
they'll be.
I got grounded.

1006
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:46,760
I wonder Paul Natali, please
come to underground operators

1007
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:48,840
with me.
Sambit ground support.

1008
00:57:48,840 --> 00:57:50,440
They will have a huge tent
there.

1009
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,720
I am probably just going to hang
around with Derek Hurd all the

1010
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:58,520
time at that conference.
Or CR insurance it is.

1011
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,400
Oh, it's in Adelaide, so it's
right in the middle of Tari

1012
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:02,480
Harrow.
Not sure who.

1013
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:08,760
Dads all of years come bloody K
drill, surface RC drill and

1014
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,280
probably not as applicable.
Saltbush contracting.

1015
00:58:12,160 --> 00:58:15,320
Yeah, it'd be rude.
Once it once it once it comes

1016
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,680
out of the mine they get a time.
Specialist.

1017
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:24,080
Yeah, Swick absolutely by
17,000,000 meters drilled

1018
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:26,560
underground.
Yeah, they'll have a tent.

1019
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:28,080
They might even have a deep X
tent there.

1020
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:31,920
Quattro Project engineering, the
inventors of the bloody Oh

1021
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:36,720
surely they'll pace the the the
pace diverter the friggin the

1022
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:40,520
fan or like the fan hangers, the
AWP baskets like they are

1023
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,880
underground as anything and
cross be entry energy.

1024
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:46,000
No point have an underground if
you can't pay out the bloody

1025
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:47,360
thing.
Absolutely.

1026
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:49,400
Right.
I heard a room money morning.

1027
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,720
Jeez, that was a long 1, Jason.
You're just used to it, aren't

1028
00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:53,880
you?
No, it's just.

1029
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:55,520
Same shit.
Different.

1030
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:57,080
That's alright.
Once the boys come back I'll

1031
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,160
have a couple of weeks off.
It's all good, I'll leave you

1032
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,200
alone.
See ya.

1033
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,600
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

1034
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,800
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

1035
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,440
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1036
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,480
person.
Before making any investment

1037
00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:15,520
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1038
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:18,680
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1039
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,840
financial situation and needs.