Unpacking the Ramifications of the Gold Pain Trade with Sam Berridge

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Which one are you betting on is
going to pop first out of I

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mentioned coke and calf,
uranium, copper, tin has come

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back you would say.
Hasn't popped yet.

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Rare Earths.
Let tin people have a Bush

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demand outlook for.
All that, pretty much everything

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commodity except gold.
What are you thinking is prime

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for the take off?
1st righto money miners.

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Sammy Berridge from upstairs has
joined us again.

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An absolute bloody wealth of
knowledge and the biggest thing

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I took out of the chat was his
love for MMS.

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He said it.
MMS are the bloody premier open

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pit mining contractor gentlemen.
And tell you what gold price

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5400. 54 by the time this goes
up mate, it's probably it's

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probably 6000.
Yeah mate, money out of anything

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that has a sniffer gold in it at
the moment.

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So and companies don't have
enough time to monetise all

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their assets.
They've always snap a duck Shit.

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MMS can help you do that.
If you've got non core stuff

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that just is sitting at the back
end of your report, give them a

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call.
All of a sudden that is worth

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something and you call MMS to
help you realise that something.

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You don't go to a mining
consultant because they've got

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their in house technical team.
They'll help you design it.

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JV arrangement, however, to get
some cash for you, maybe a bit

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for them too.
All you have to do is cash the

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cheque, eh?
Oh.

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Pretty much Bloody God.
I'm surprised Perennial as it

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just bought MMS like that'd be a
bloody good in yeah, so give

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them bloody right.
Let's just get into semi macro,

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micro everything, mining and
macro.

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Let's repeat God Rhino money.
Mine is the man from upstairs

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and this is a like Ding Ding
Ding boom boom boom for Allie JC

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because pretty much you run her
money.

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Yeah, that's.
True.

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That's true directly and
indirectly for Sammy Barrage

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from perennial value Management.
Have we got that right?

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You think after all those years
I'd figure it out.

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Cover.
Thank you for coming downstairs.

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We're going to go into what the
bloody hell you think's going on

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Macro Micro and what the good
the punts are.

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All the shit punts.
Maybe boys take it away.

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So glad to have you mate,
because you're a big thinker out

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there.
You've always got a view on you

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have a changing landscape, be it
the, you know, the actual

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companies that we love talking
about or even the, you know, the

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big picture stuff that's
influencing markets.

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And right now it's a lot more
big picture and a lot less

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little picture.
It's been a torrid month.

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That big picture is been, you
know, rushing one way to the

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other.
You know, enough to sort of

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twist your head off, but seems
that things are sort of bedding

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down now in a, you know,
uncomfortable sort of way.

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But yeah, we'll sure we'll get
into it.

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But yeah, thanks very much for
having me on again.

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It's always a pleasure to walk
downstairs to have a chat.

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Say horrid if you sell.
Well, yeah, I mean, I don't

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know, There's some, there's a
few things out there that's sank

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and then just kept on sinking.
Need to cut those loose.

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Oh.
Right.

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Should we start with gold?
Tammy, what's what's happening

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in gold?
Pretty hot at the moment.

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It's like the only thing that's
hot.

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Explain to us what's happening
in the gold market.

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I'm actually getting a little
bit worried like at the ascent

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of the gold price because it
means all is not well in the

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world, particularly with the the
US and and the US dollar.

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So yeah, try and sum this up as
quickly as possible.

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But I think that what we're
seeing now is the the growing

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crescendo of a theme that's been
with us for a while, and that is

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the uncertainty of the
sustainability of the US

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Treasuries or U.S. debt.
And that is that sets the risk

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free rate for pretty much the
entire world.

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So all of all of a sudden, the
asset, which is the US

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government bond is no longer
risk free.

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Well, what is?
And I think central banks around

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the world are starting to turn
to gold as an alternative to

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that.
And it looks kind of like, you

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know, what was in place before
1971 when we abandoned the gold

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standard and, and governments
could pretty much print as much

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money as they want.
But, you know, it needs to be

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sustainable.
And, you know, the US has run up

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too much debt.
And then to bring it sort of

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right now, you know, the US
desperately needs to balance its

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budget.
And this whole tariff thing

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looks as like it's gonna make
things worse, at least in the

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short term.
And so that's what I think is,

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is pushing the the rush up in
gold prices.

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People wonder, well hang on, if
the US government debts not risk

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free, well what is?
What?

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What alternatives could have
they had because this is all if

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this is all on the back of the
the tariffs and the geopolitical

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uncertainty, which was for the
purpose of paying down the debt

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to take the risk off possibly
the biggest global meltdown

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ever.
If they defaulted on that debt,

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what else could have they done
because it seems like the

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purposes of fighting against
each other.

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Could have the US done, you say?
I mean, I just think they could

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have done it.
Perhaps a less extreme version

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of of what they're doing.
I mean, very simply, they just

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need to raise more revenue and,
and, and spend less money.

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So you would have had to cut
back on government spending a

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bit, try and raise a bit more
revenue.

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I mean, ultimately you want to
do that the good way, which is

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by growing your economy, as
opposed to the painful way,

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which is, you know, cutting back
on government, government

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spending and, and taxing more.
But, you know, they've gone down

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this tariff route where the, you
know, Trump's tried to get the

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rest of the world to basically
fix his budget for him.

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And lo and behold, the rest of
the world's, you know, having

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has a few issues with that.
It appears so what's the?

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Data showing in terms of the the
actual gold market buying right

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now, if the ascent is so steep
like where is where is the

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buying coming from?
I think it varies from month to

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month, but I mean central banks
are still probably the biggest

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delta there.
ETF flows.

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I haven't seen April's data, but
for February they weren't that

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high.
So it's not, it wasn't financial

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buying back last month, but I
think, and I think the Chinese

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had a little bit of a pause just
before Christmas.

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But more recently, I think it's,
yeah, it's, it's been central

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bank buying as far as I can
tell.

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How do you build your portfolio
thinking about all of this, you

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know, trying to balance the
bottom up and and the top down?

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How much time do you spend on
the macro versus versus the

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micro?
Because it can be so enticing

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just to read endlessly.
But you know, you need to pick

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companies as well, right?
Yeah.

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True.
I reckon the macro, well,

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commodity, if you're going to
invest in commodity companies

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and mining, I reckon getting the
commodity price right is

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probably 70% of the challenge.
And it's very hard for a company

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to outperform when their, you
know, their commodity is

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falling.
I mean it does happen, but

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really so roughly 70% on the
macro and as it feeds into

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commodity prices and then, you
know, the balance is on, on the

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bottom up, which you know again
is also very, very important.

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But yeah, you got to get that
commodity price right.

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So if gold's the only thing
that's pumping at the moment,

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but it's at these all time highs
and you're worried about the

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ascent of it, when do you get
worried about allocating money

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in more, more, more money into
gold, thinking is this going to

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be sustainable level outgoing
forever or go back the other way

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when there's not much else run
and hot?

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Because you then have to look at
right what's pretty much every

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countercyclical opportunity,
which is everything else, Yeah.

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It's a very good question.
And that's core to risk

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management because you can't go
all in on basically one

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commodity because as soon as the
party's over, well, you're going

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to have a pretty shit month or
two while you reverse that.

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So I mean, everybody's a bit
different Within our or my fund,

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the, the Max allocation to 1
commodity is 30% and we're

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pretty close to that today.
So you know, roughly a bit under

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30% gold plus a bit of cash.
And then some of these, you

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know, other stocks which are
more or sorry, other commodity

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exposures, which are more
consumer staples, like I mean,

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domestic gas, which is something
I've spoken about a bit on here,

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Demand for gas doesn't really
change with economic conditions.

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I mean, if it gets cold, then
haters go on and that's it.

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So the demand is very resilient,
you know, supplies falling.

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And so that's a a structural
story there, which is going to

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be, you know, reasonably well
supported I think through, you

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know, quite volatile economic
conditions.

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So things like that is what you
pad out the rest of the

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portfolio with, not necessarily
to make you huge amounts of

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money, but just as importantly
as to avoid losing money.

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That portfolio's done pretty
well in recent history.

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I saw your five year, five year
numbers were really well.

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So well done on that front in
the, in the, the gold front once

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more.
Why, why is China's central

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bank, why is China buying,
buying so much gold right now?

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Yeah.
That's a that's a good question.

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And I think I mean, you know,
it's always difficult to guess

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the mind of of the Chinese
central bankers, but I think

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that it goes to them trying to
displace the US dollar as the

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global reserve currency.
And I think if you go all the

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way back to how concerned the US
government was in, in abandoning

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the gold standard, which, you
know, did support their

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currency, it really, I think
it's really telling for, you

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know, today as, and what might
be going on.

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So back in 70 or like the late
60s, early 70s were, you know,

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15 years into the, the Vietnam
War, you, it was costing the US

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government a lot of money.
They were running deficits.

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They were finding it difficult
to raise more debt to fund their

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war.
The rest of the central banks

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around the world could see that
the situation was unsustainable.

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the US government could not
maintain their peg to gold with

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their currency because people
were could see they were going

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or their their budget was under
pressure.

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They were selling their U.S.
dollars and buying gold and gold

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inventories in the US were
dwindling as a result.

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So with the whole thing was
going to come to an end

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eventually.
And So what the US government

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needed was a big buyer, a really
big buyer of U.S. debt, you

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know, ready to step in once they
abandoned the gold standards.

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So they abandoned it in 71, in
73.

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And I'll caveat this with saying
that this does have a

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conspiratorial element to it.
You had the Yom Kippur War kick

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off, which was, you know,
between Egypt, Jordan and

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Israel.
And it only went for two weeks.

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But straight off the back of
that, OPEC restricted oil

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exports to the world.
The oil price went through the

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roof.
They, you know, OPEC raised

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prices by 70% and then by
another 100% on top of that.

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So then all of a sudden you had
this massive windfall of cash

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going to OPEC.
And we're not even 12 months

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after that war, the US had done
a deal with Saudi Arabia to 1

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trade oil in U.S. dollars only,
but also to invest the vast

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majority of their new found
gains into US deficits or into

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buying U.S. government debt.
And you saw from that point

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onwards, government, U.S.
government debt ballooned and,

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you know, the US dollar became
the reserve currency and left

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and went happily ever after.
So to bring you back to your

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00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,560
question, what is the Chinese
government thinking?

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Well, I think they're probably
realistic and that there'd be a

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reluctance to use the the RMB as
the global, you know, reserve

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currency.
But if you had a gold backed

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version of, you know, the, the
renminbi or, or, or some other

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currency, well, that might be
able to dislodge the US dollar

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from as the, the global reserve
currency.

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If, you know, if the US economy
gets stuck, continues to head

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down the, you know, the path
that it's on, which is just one

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that's unsustainable, you know?
Why would that be in the

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00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,600
interest of of of China?
I think that the US has had been

224
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:34,320
a massive beneficiary of, of, of
being, having the global reserve

225
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:36,680
currency like they can.
They've been able to export

226
00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:40,200
their deficits to the world.
It's, you know, that's funded a

227
00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,480
huge amount of infrastructure
and investment by those by, by

228
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,960
the, by the US.
Now, if you take that away,

229
00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:51,600
well, it would weaken a big leg,
I suppose, of US supremacy and

230
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,080
would make it more difficult, I
think, for the US to try to

231
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:57,480
challenge or impede, you know,
China's, China's rise.

232
00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,680
So, you know, it's, it's very,
all very long term thinking

233
00:12:00,680 --> 00:12:02,880
here.
But yeah, I think it would be of

234
00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,640
of detriment to the US and to
the benefit of its editors.

235
00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,240
How important do you think was
the freezing of Russian assets

236
00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:13,280
as well in 2022?
That's that was a real

237
00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:15,600
inflection point.
So if you look at central bank

238
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,560
buying of gold and particularly
Chinese central bank buying of

239
00:12:18,560 --> 00:12:22,920
gold, it really accelerated post
February 22 when that when that

240
00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:28,200
freeze went in place.
And if you look at a of the the

241
00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,920
US real rights, which is, you
know, the inverse of that is

242
00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:35,880
often pegged to gold from 2022,
that versus the gold price

243
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,320
really diverged.
And so I think that was that had

244
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,480
a big impact.
And you know, the US tried to

245
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,600
weaponize its, you know, its
status as the reserve currency

246
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,360
to further, you know, as its in
its competition with with

247
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,840
Russia.
And it appears to have backfired

248
00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,000
to some extent.
I don't think they appreciated,

249
00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:55,360
you know what, what could
transpire from that event.

250
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,000
So if if that's not in the best
interest of the US long term,

251
00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,480
how are they going to
potentially counteract that?

252
00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,520
Yeah, that's a good question.
I, I mean, they, first of all,

253
00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,560
if, if, if you can't, if people
aren't going to continue to buy

254
00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:11,920
U.S. debt or can aren't continue
to buy it at the, the interest

255
00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:15,480
rate that they're selling it at,
which is 4.4% or something for

256
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,200
10 years at the moment.
Then they've got to balance

257
00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:23,000
their books or appear to be
balancing their books and they

258
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,400
got to do it quickly, which is
very, very difficult to do.

259
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:31,360
If they can't do that, well,
it's, I mean, I suppose they

260
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,400
could just probably lean, try
and lean on the rest of the

261
00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:36,560
world to some extent saying,
well, look, we're in real

262
00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:38,560
trouble here.
But if we go down, we're

263
00:13:38,560 --> 00:13:40,080
bringing the global economy with
us.

264
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:43,040
So can we try and meet halfway
and work out some sort of

265
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,160
solution?
I mean, and we might be a little

266
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,240
bit, we'll probably a little
wire from that yet, but the fact

267
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:51,640
that we're even discussing it, I
think it comes back to well gold

268
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,280
prices seen as a increasingly
appealing alternative to U.S.

269
00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,600
dollar or U.S. government debt.
So.

270
00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,720
I'd like refine like ringing up
the bank saying oh I just want

271
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,040
to refinance my mortgage. 100%
But it's, it's like, like

272
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,240
Bondy's old adage, you know, if
you owe the bank 1,000,000 bucks

273
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,200
and you can't pay them back,
well, you've got a problem.

274
00:14:08,560 --> 00:14:10,520
But if you owe the bank 100
million and you can't pay it

275
00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:12,000
back, well, the bank's got a
problem.

276
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,120
It's that on steroids.
Yeah, right.

277
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:18,520
That makes a lot of sense.
Are you partial to the to the

278
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:23,000
view that that silver and maybe
even platinum will see a benefit

279
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,200
as as precious or are they just
too far gone down the industrial

280
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:32,280
route?
I think possibly the latter and

281
00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,960
what I'm what sort of anchoring
my view there is the fact that I

282
00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:45,560
think gold's is a official,
official sort of means of

283
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,520
central bank exchange, I suppose
as as determined by the

284
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,440
International Monetary Fund,
whereas silver and platinum

285
00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,840
aren't.
So unless that changes like

286
00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,160
that's a benefit that gold's
always going to have over those

287
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,240
pseudo industrial metals.
I mean, platinum, I've I've

288
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,640
played or watched or, and had
sort of tinkered with a a few

289
00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,320
times and it just, it should be
the higher price than what it is

290
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:10,240
now.
But that's just for supply and

291
00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:14,520
demand type reasons.
And I don't think, yeah, I don't

292
00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,720
think it, it sort of gets
bundled up in this precious

293
00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,920
metal rally that gold's got
because, you know, gold is not

294
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,120
really a commodity.
It's more a financial asset.

295
00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,440
You know, he doesn't, you know,
all of the gold reserves are

296
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:26,200
pretty much still available
today.

297
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,920
So it's in a massive surplus,
you know, is by any sort of

298
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:31,280
normal definition of a
commodity.

299
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,600
But because of that financial
element to it, well, what's it

300
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,920
worth?
You know, you, it's, you can

301
00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:38,320
sort of make you make your own
mind up.

302
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,000
Don't normally, you know, in,
in, in kind of predicting the,

303
00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,040
the, the commodity price or at
least directionally getting it

304
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:45,360
right.
Like you said, it's 70% of the

305
00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,640
work, but you could normally do
that with some supply demand

306
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,200
kind of estimates.
Gold is very different.

307
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:55,360
So how do you actually form a, a
view on, on how far into this

308
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,120
gold rally we are given?
It could be a, it could be a, a

309
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,600
regime change.
This could be a, you know, a a

310
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,880
very substantial kind of
changing world order.

311
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,160
Yeah.
And that's the way you you

312
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,200
phrase that in terms of the rate
of change is, is exactly right.

313
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,040
And that's what we that's what
we use.

314
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,920
So rather than putting a, you
know, oh, we think it gets to

315
00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,400
4500 US, which I think Goldman's
was out, you know, with their

316
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:20,120
number just recently.
That's, you know, I think that's

317
00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:21,400
a sort of a little bit
premature.

318
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,600
And I mean, if you think,
compare it to like the lithium

319
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,520
bull market, I mean, who foresaw
it getting to what was it $8000

320
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,520
a tonne or something for Spodge?
I mean, something ridiculous

321
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,520
like that.
It's more beneficial for an

322
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,920
investor point of view is just
to keep an eye on, well, hang

323
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,520
on, why is it going up?
And, and then, and then have a

324
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:41,320
look at, you know, the rate of
change of those drivers.

325
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:46,400
So if U.S. debt and the
unsustainability of it is

326
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,080
driving the gold price higher,
well, you want to keep an eye

327
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,720
out for, you know, look at the
US leading economic indicators.

328
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:54,160
Look at the, you know, the
deficits.

329
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:58,000
What's the sort of consumer
demand doing?

330
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,680
What's their spending doing all
these little lead indicators for

331
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,080
interest rates and, and which
way they're going.

332
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:07,480
And that should give you a, a
hint about when, when the gold

333
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:09,400
price is, you know, somewhere
near a zenith.

334
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,960
But you know, the US economy is
a, is an oil tanker.

335
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:13,720
It takes a while to turn that
around.

336
00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:16,040
And at the moment things are
probably deteriorating, not

337
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:18,800
improving.
So for the foreseeable future,

338
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,839
and by that I mean three to six
months, I don't think much

339
00:17:21,839 --> 00:17:24,480
changes.
What do you make of the recent

340
00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,760
relationship between gold stocks
and the gold price?

341
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,640
Begrudging disbelief?
I think so.

342
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:35,840
While some of these gold, gold
equities have had fantastic runs

343
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,800
by and large and and the numbers
are changing quickly, but by and

344
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:44,800
large, I don't think they're
pricing in gold anywhere near

345
00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,040
current levels for, you know, an
extended period of time.

346
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,840
They're very much gold equities
are suggesting that the gold

347
00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,040
price is going to roll over.
Now.

348
00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:55,960
I don't think that's the case in
the near term at least.

349
00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,920
So, you know, I think there's
probably still room for the

350
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,920
equities to continue to rewrite
relative to the gold price.

351
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:06,280
And the other thing that is
probably going to be supportive

352
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,200
of that is the fact that the
gold stocks or gold equities are

353
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:14,040
now about 18% of the small
ordinaries index.

354
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,080
So that means instos that
generally don't play in mining

355
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,040
because I hate it.
They're going to be forced

356
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,000
buyers of gold because if
they're under, if there's hold 0

357
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,160
weight and it's the only thing
going up, well, it's going to

358
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,160
really hurt their performance.
So they've got to come in and

359
00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,280
sort of cover that, that
underweight position.

360
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:31,960
And I think that's probably
going on at the moment.

361
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:36,920
I think some of the the the
staple gold names of probably do

362
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,760
you think they're trading it
where they should be like, like

363
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:43,680
Genesis is what a $5 billion
company now Capricorns above

364
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,000
$10.
Like do you think that they the

365
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:49,680
the one the self fulfilling
prophecy companies?

366
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:51,560
Yeah, they seem to have
probably.

367
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,160
Do you think they probably had a
level that reflects the gold

368
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,760
price?
Yeah, as I think I mean

369
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:58,200
Capricorn at 10 bucks is
probably close.

370
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,440
I must admit I haven't.
I haven't refreshed my numbers

371
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,440
like today as in spot bulk,
Scott, sorry Spot gold prices

372
00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:05,640
today the last time I did.
You gotta do it everyday

373
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,360
there's. 5454 this morning.
I was at 50 this morning.

374
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:10,320
Yeah.
Yeah.

375
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,800
So as I said, like the numbers
are changing, changing fast.

376
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,440
And yeah, you know, the guys who
are delivering on, you know,

377
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,160
saying doing what they said they
were, do you know, particularly

378
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,560
those two you mentioned
Capricorn and Genesis, you know,

379
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,520
at the upper end.
But you know, this guy's like,

380
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,520
you know, Remelius, I think Mark
is still digesting their their

381
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,960
merger with with Spartan and
that, you know, that needs to be

382
00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:31,040
bedded down and well.
They've gone from that 220 after

383
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:34,360
their mount magnet expansion,
but now they're back up to 290

384
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,080
and then Spartan at 2:20.
Yeah, now that's I.

385
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,640
Mean the gold price has run
since then at least what, 600 US

386
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,000
bucks as well, yeah.
So yeah, the valuation per SE

387
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,480
hasn't really.
The dial, yeah, no, that, that's

388
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,720
exactly right.
And I mean, I think what the

389
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,720
interesting part is some of
these slightly smaller guys that

390
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,200
might be, you know, cobbling
together sort of circa 6050

391
00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,960
thousand ounces of production,
which you know, 18 months ago,

392
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,880
you, you barely bother taking a
meeting with those guys because

393
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,120
the the institutional market
just wasn't interested in

394
00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:08,560
businesses that small.
But those companies now are

395
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,280
going to do sort of circa 300
million of revenue and probably

396
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,520
150 to 200 million of EBITDA.
That's a big business.

397
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,120
So yeah, I think that you know,
there will be another generation

398
00:20:18,120 --> 00:20:21,040
of the producers or the you know
near term producers that I think

399
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,840
might might be the next out
performance I think.

400
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,200
This is a perfect time for it.
But in terms of can you, can you

401
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:30,000
think of lithium, nickel and 9
all were flying at the moment

402
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,840
like to for cost of production
like gold's flying.

403
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,640
Yeah.
So, but this is the time they've

404
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,160
really got to capitalize on it
because technically the the

405
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,000
costs shouldn't be going up too
much because every other

406
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,080
industry sort of depressed or
not yet taken off.

407
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:46,880
So it's going to be interesting
to watch that.

408
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,320
But yeah, anyway, costs don't go
down it appears, but I think

409
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,560
it's probably going to be offset
by the amount of gold mines that

410
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,360
are and people needed.
Yeah.

411
00:20:55,360 --> 00:20:58,280
I mean, at that point on, on,
no, no competition from the

412
00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,840
other commodities though is a
very good one.

413
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,600
And yeah, that's this.
Gold mining is tough, but

414
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,840
there's, you know, those excuses
just don't exist at the moment.

415
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,480
No excuse not to use K drill for
exploration drilling.

416
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,280
No excuses.
There was.

417
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,040
Why wouldn't you use Ron
O'Sullivan?

418
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,960
I I do use him all the time.
I call him up and I ask him, hey

419
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,080
mate I need some holes punched
into the ground right now what

420
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:20,520
are you doing?
And he said I was there 5

421
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,360
minutes ago you knucklehead.
They're.

422
00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:25,760
Already in.
They're already in Trav like the

423
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:30,880
absolute premier man to run an
exploration drilling company and

424
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,080
ever since holes have been
started drilling looking for

425
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,440
minerals, he is the one bloody
name you need to know.

426
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:42,840
He is he.
He, I would say he sits there.

427
00:21:43,360 --> 00:21:47,280
He doesn't pat the cat.
He Pats a drill rod like the

428
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:49,120
godfather.
He's the godfather of

429
00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:50,200
exploration.
Drilling what?

430
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:51,640
Do you think of when you think
of Catra mate?

431
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,120
Ryan O'Sullivan Ryan O'Sullivan
Premier Sample Management That's

432
00:21:55,120 --> 00:21:58,360
it making the drill budget work
for you and just when you look

433
00:21:58,360 --> 00:22:00,520
at.
Fishing, reliable, Safe.

434
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:01,680
These are just some of the words
and.

435
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,640
When when you look at the moon
and you see craters, do you know

436
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,920
how they got there?
Ryan got bored, got bored.

437
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,080
Just punch the poles up there.
If anyone knows if there's

438
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,480
minerals on the moon it's Ryan
because he's already drilled

439
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,360
holes there.
Get K drill doing your

440
00:22:14,360 --> 00:22:16,840
exploration drilling in
Australia or on the moon.

441
00:22:17,120 --> 00:22:21,040
They have the team for it.
This this kind of pain trade you

442
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:25,240
talk about where the the non
commodity in stores have kind of

443
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,560
forced to to buy their companies
that make their way into the

444
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,320
index.
Have you seen that play out in

445
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,200
the past with different
commodities when they've had

446
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,000
their run and, and, and how does
it usually unfold?

447
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:34,840
Oh.
Definitely.

448
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,120
I mean I think with lithium that
definitely took place like that

449
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:39,880
became a pretty big part of the
index for a brief period there.

450
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:46,600
And what you see is, you know,
perhaps technically ambitious,

451
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,880
I'll say projects start getting
re rated to valuations in the

452
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,320
billions of dollars.
And with lithium, it was a bit

453
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:54,800
different though, because it was
a new commodity.

454
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,520
You had, you know, clays and
brines and direct lithium

455
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,520
extraction and all these
different technologies, which

456
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,200
all sort of started sort of, you
know, making the light of day

457
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,920
all at once.
And it was very probably a bit

458
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:09,440
more difficult for for investors
to discriminate between, you

459
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,160
know, that's a legit processing
route and something which is,

460
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,440
you know, probably a little bit,
you know, a little bit ambitious

461
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,200
With gold, though, because it's
been around forever.

462
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,440
That will probably be less
likely to happen, I would think,

463
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,640
because, you know, there's no,
you know, magic new technologies

464
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:30,200
for for, for, for extracting
gold.

465
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,840
But yeah, still I think, you
know, I think as people get more

466
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:38,000
desperate for trying to find
under, you know, undervalued or,

467
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,120
or or gold stocks that haven't
run quite as hard, you know,

468
00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:43,680
perhaps some of these more
conceptual projects, you know,

469
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,680
going in more exotic locations
get a a bit of a lease of life

470
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,840
A.
A mainstay in your portfolio for

471
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:51,840
for some time has been or a
bander.

472
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,800
I was interested to see kind of
the the this undeveloped project

473
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,160
with the highest kind of
proportionate weighting in your

474
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,720
in your portfolio being being
rocks.

475
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,200
So you're kind of keen to get
your your current views on on

476
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,520
our Bander as a producer and
Rocks as a developer rocks.

477
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,160
The resurgence segment, what's
happening for you?

478
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:11,560
Well.
I touched on rocks first because

479
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,120
I think that I mean, if you're
looking for this gold pockets of

480
00:24:15,120 --> 00:24:17,960
the gold sector that haven't,
you know, really ripped yet.

481
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,960
And as and but also, you know,
for for reasons that to do with

482
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:27,400
a little bit of a technical
nuance is, you know, the the the

483
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,480
universe of refractory gold
projects, I think is perhaps one

484
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,920
that isn't, you know,
completely, you know, I'm over

485
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,000
or not not overvalued, but
hasn't gone for a massive run

486
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,200
yet.
And refractory gold for people

487
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,600
that are not aware of it is is
projects where the gold is

488
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,400
usually wrapped up, you know in
the sulfide mineral.

489
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,200
So the the cyanide, which is
what you use to dissolve gold

490
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,720
and get it into solution can't
get out the gold grain.

491
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,080
So you require a little bit of
extra processing to get it there

492
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,080
now.
You've been listening to my

493
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,120
metallurgy episode.
That's, that's exactly right.

494
00:25:00,120 --> 00:25:03,600
And so because of the the
because of a bit of a chequered

495
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,520
history of refractory projects
in in WA, investors have

496
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:12,200
generally veered away from
refractory gold deposits, even

497
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:16,560
though the production of from
gold of gold you know is from

498
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,360
refractory projects is is tried
and tested like it works no

499
00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:20,800
problems at all and just.
Check it.

500
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,280
History wasn't really related
sometimes to the refractory

501
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:28,480
side, like no, like the well,
it's all blown up.

502
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,320
Blown basically, Yeah.
And which, you know, the first

503
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,280
thing was the the bugs sort of
died.

504
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,720
And then the second one was
Russia.

505
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,640
They couldn't send the
concentrate to Russia?

506
00:25:39,360 --> 00:25:41,120
What?
It wasn't really specifically

507
00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:44,560
the refractory process, no.
No, that's, that's fair.

508
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,800
And the, but generally, as you
know, people shoot first, ask

509
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,480
questions, so they don't care
about the nuance.

510
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:50,920
They just know, oh, this is
something different.

511
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:52,400
It doesn't work.
And so now I don't want to know

512
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:57,400
about it, but it does work.
You know, to grey your massive

513
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,520
success story, $5 billion bid
from Northern start is a

514
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:05,120
refractory project.
I mean, emerald very successful

515
00:26:05,120 --> 00:26:09,120
mine miner.
Their pro project up in Cambodia

516
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,960
is partially or has a has a
refractory gold component to it.

517
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,920
I think they've got a slightly
different processing path there,

518
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,440
but it works fine.
You know, the recoveries are

519
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,800
high 80s, low 90s.
They're making shit loads of

520
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:24,400
money and so it's no problem.
And so back to rocks.

521
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:28,640
You know, that is has a, a
refractory component to it and

522
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,720
for that reason it's been
largely passed over.

523
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,680
But you know, it's 1.3 million
oz at 4.4g.

524
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,240
And if you know, you have to
give away an extra .1 of a gram

525
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:43,240
or about about $30 a a tonne
more in processing cost to get

526
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,440
that gold out, well, who cares?
You know, it's still a very, it

527
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,560
should be a very good project.
So I think I mean Genesis has

528
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,640
got a bit of refractory gold in
their portfolio, which you know,

529
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,280
Aphrodite.
Yeah, yeah, buttocks.

530
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,560
Yeah.
So they're, you know, that's

531
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,440
something they'll probably
breathe some life into at some

532
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,520
point.
KCG Ms. being mined and

533
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,720
refractory dirt for bloody
decades.

534
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,080
Yeah, 100 percent, 100%.
So that's, you know, this is an

535
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,120
A gold project which I was sort
of looked at or this rule, this

536
00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:12,880
refractory thing is not real.
People think it's an issue, but

537
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,560
it's not really.
And so, you know, we, we waited

538
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,000
in there and, and it's, it's
done reasonably well, but.

539
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,680
That is that they settled on.
I haven't looked at.

540
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:26,040
They've settled on loading the
con, then ultrafine grinding

541
00:27:26,360 --> 00:27:29,880
down to 12 mil, then leaching.
Is that what they're the flow

542
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:30,880
sheets?
Yeah.

543
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,080
Broadly, so it looks like
they're going to follow that

544
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,360
Albion circuit, which is the
Glencore 1.

545
00:27:35,360 --> 00:27:38,080
So and that's pretty much it.
You just float off, you know,

546
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,640
float off the the sulfides with
the gold, you know, put them

547
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:42,520
through a, an ISO mill, I think
they call it.

548
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,200
I'm not sure what the brine size
is, but it is pretty fine but I

549
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,040
think.
Gas down to 12 or something?

550
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,640
Yeah, but.
The mass pool is not is not

551
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,560
huge.
So you know, 8% I think.

552
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,000
Yeah.
And then and then and get then

553
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,080
they use sort of agitated
oxidation, I think it is, but

554
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,000
they have the big tanks with
oxygen being pumped through it

555
00:28:01,360 --> 00:28:05,520
at high speeds and that's what
it oxidises the sulfides and

556
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,560
then liberates the gold.
So it's not it doesn't require

557
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,960
high temperature or high
pressure or anything and seems

558
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,080
to work fine.
But anyway, Glencore.

559
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:15,800
Want to get one of them into
Australia?

560
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:17,040
Well.
You'd think you would, wouldn't

561
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,040
you?
You know, it's been around that,

562
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,920
that Albion sort of process been
around for ages.

563
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,080
Incidentally, it seems pretty
similar to what Emerald are

564
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,920
doing up in Cambodia.
So why wouldn't you try and

565
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,760
commercialize it?
Yeah, sorry.

566
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:32,520
No, keep going, keep going.
Oh, I was.

567
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,760
Just going to say on a Rabanda,
yeah.

568
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:39,160
So I mean that's, you know, the
valuations is I will admit is

569
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,600
asking a bit up here.
I think it's $1.20 or something

570
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:46,040
today, but I think the, and
obviously Luke Cray's, you know,

571
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:50,520
one plenty of friends around
the, around the place, but that

572
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,280
that company has got one of the,
you know, one of the important

573
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,240
virtues going through it and
that it has like permitted or a

574
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,880
path of permitted growth.
Like back to Capricorn, you

575
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:01,000
mentioned, you know, done very
well.

576
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,640
It's, it cleared $10 today.
They're still waiting on the

577
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:07,880
permit approval for Mount
Gibson.

578
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,680
I mean, that's an existing buy.
I mean, you guys know well, it's

579
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,000
disturbed ground.
So I don't know why it's taking

580
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:16,000
so long, but you know, that's
just the input world that we

581
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:20,280
live in where is, you know, our
band is, you know, full of

582
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,520
permitted mine sites looking at
more bringing in more

583
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:25,120
underground.
So pretty small footprint.

584
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,600
And you know, maybe they expand
their mill or, or I mean, I

585
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,360
suppose if they have to build
another one that will require

586
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,000
permitting, but it's not a, you
know, they won't have to go

587
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,960
through that full sort of, you
know, starting from scratch

588
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,080
Greenfield's permitting process
that a lot of other companies

589
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,120
do.
And so you know, that fully

590
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,000
permitted sort of path to
production growth I think is

591
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,440
seen as quite desirable.
What do you think?

592
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:48,880
Do you think they'd build
another mill or expand Davy

593
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,720
Hurst to 2,000,000 tonne if they
did get the extra dirt or I?

594
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:54,320
Reckon that.
I think they're doing studies on

595
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,920
that at the moment.
So I mean, I think that once

596
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,600
they fill Davy Hurst with two
undergrounds, there's no more

597
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,440
low grade open pit feed to
displace.

598
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,640
And so then the question comes,
well, hang on, how much milling

599
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,480
capacity do we do we really need
here?

600
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,040
I mean, well, I think we'll find
out later in the calendar year

601
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,200
what they, what they want to do,
but I wouldn't be surprised if

602
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,360
they're they go for another one.
What?

603
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,400
What's is it?
Is it 120 kilometres or

604
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,600
something?
That tenement like strike lane?

605
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,440
Strike lane for that?
Yeah, that's freaking

606
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:24,920
unbelievable.
Oh, it is.

607
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:29,040
And there's, you know, there's
big, big bits of open pit, open

608
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,360
pitable, like lower, lower,
lower grade stuff, you know, 1g

609
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,240
a tonne, which they don't bother
looking at because they don't

610
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:36,120
have a big meal.
But if they did have a big meal,

611
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,680
all of a sudden that stuff
becomes interesting.

612
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,600
So yeah, I mean, we'll see what
they do, but they've got,

613
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,040
they've got options there and
you know, they're making decent

614
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:43,960
money at the moment.
Where?

615
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,360
Would they put it if they do a
new one I.

616
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,200
Suspect they'd probably put it
up towards Riverina, which is

617
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,360
and.
Then keep the diverse, Yeah.

618
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,560
So sinking a guy to Diverse and
all the Riverina stuff and N

619
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,840
would go up there, yeah.
And I think there's one

620
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,280
beginning with C Yeah, there's
another deposit.

621
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,760
I think there's a few I fear and
Golden Lights of Israel, I think

622
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:08,160
down around that Davey Hurst
mill.

623
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:09,360
So I think that would keep that
full.

624
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,880
And then they'd save on the
trucking down from Riverina and

625
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,080
put that in, I think probably
put it in another mill up in

626
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,840
that sort of area somewhere.
But you know, all very arm WAVY

627
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,560
pie in the sky stuff.
But I think that's the sort of

628
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:20,760
thing they're wrestling with at
the moment.

629
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,160
You know, you're right.
Everyone's excited, just bumped.

630
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,240
Have you?
Sammy, I know you've got a

631
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,000
couple different funds, but and
one of them sort of focuses on

632
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,240
the the micro Caps are smallest,
but in in general, you're

633
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:37,200
leaning more toward the the
smaller names in the gold space

634
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,240
given they perhaps haven't run
like like Capricorn and Genesis

635
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,040
like Maddie said, Yeah.
I think that I think that's

636
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:44,680
probably fair at the moment.
I mean, they're probably more

637
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,720
the ones I've been adding to as
opposed to adding to more onto,

638
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,640
you know, holding in Genesis or
whatever up at these levels.

639
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:55,360
But yeah, I mean, you know, this
select example, select few

640
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,000
developers in that micro cap
fund, I mean this company called

641
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:03,600
Taraco again, which has an
element of refractory gold

642
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,880
amongst its deposits.
But that resource growth there

643
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,560
looks looks like it's going to
be substantial.

644
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,800
You know, I'm hoping for, you
know, comfortably north of

645
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,680
3,000,000 oz when they when they
release their next update.

646
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,960
And that's a, you know, that's a
big bit of a good big gold

647
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,040
resource and a good area.
So things like that, which, you

648
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,200
know, I think for a long time,
you know, the market was

649
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,240
probably discounting a little
bit, but you know, on the what's

650
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,320
that eastern corner of Ivory
Coast is not the worst place in

651
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:29,760
the world to be.
Yeah.

652
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,520
Do you worry about mining codes
being rigid, royalties being

653
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,040
etched up in in those sorts of
parts, or similar parts around

654
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:38,240
the world?
Always.

655
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:41,400
And you sort of you look at it
in the context of the history of

656
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,920
the country, you know, Ivory
Coast has been pretty stable,

657
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,480
Ghana has been pretty stable,
you know, Namibia and the

658
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,600
uranium industry has been very
stable.

659
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,480
Botswana has been stable,
whereas others, you know, not so

660
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:56,000
much.
So we're probably not not as

661
00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:00,080
inclined to to jump into.
Did you tip into the Bellevue

662
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,000
Rise $0.85?
The question was by everyone, is

663
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,400
it would you go in or would you
not?

664
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,320
Yeah, I did have a listen to you
guys discussing it and agree

665
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,960
with all of what you said.
So, but we did, we did tip some

666
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,120
in I think.
Take us through the rationale of

667
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,760
that.
I mean going back to the last

668
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:23,360
rise, the reason we didn't
participate in the one I think

669
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,960
that was like September or
something like that last year is

670
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,440
I couldn't get comfortable with
what happened to the grade.

671
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:34,880
So at that time, I think the
grade dropped about 20% and they

672
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,320
to make up for that on my sort
of my interpretation, this is

673
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,840
not the company line, of course,
but my interpretation is that

674
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:46,120
they were very dearly like to
have that 200,000 oz or plus

675
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,680
200,000 oz production target.
So if you drop your grade 20%,

676
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,080
well, you just need that much
more infrastructure, more

677
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,680
declines, more drives, more
headings, bigger plant to still

678
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,000
get to that 200,000 oz.
And I thought this is, this is

679
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,640
really a stretch and I just
don't think it's going to work.

680
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,840
So we, we steered clear this
time around.

681
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,800
I think they've probably, you
know, become, you know, come to

682
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,719
terms with the fact, well, it's
not a 200,000 oz per annum mine,

683
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,440
it's going to be less than that.
If it ends up being somewhere

684
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:17,000
near 190, that's probably a
pretty good, a pretty, pretty

685
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,440
good outcome.
I don't think you're paying for

686
00:34:19,639 --> 00:34:23,080
190,000 oz into perpetuity at
$0.85, particularly not at

687
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:27,840
current gold prices.
So yeah, on a, you know, if they

688
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,679
get end up somewhere near that,
I think $0.85 in the fullness of

689
00:34:31,679 --> 00:34:34,120
time will prove to be a
reasonable buy, hopefully.

690
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:38,520
I mean that the hedge books,
probably the biggest be flying

691
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,480
the ointment, so to speak.
I mean they've got eight months

692
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,199
now where they get Spot gold, so
they should make a, you know,

693
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:45,719
decent wedge of cash and which
would get rid of their debt in

694
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,280
that time.
But yeah, again, that hedge book

695
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,400
further out in time is a bit of
a headwind.

696
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,719
But you know somebody else's
portfolio, I think you can

697
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,679
dilute that a little bit and you
know maybe that maybe that

698
00:34:56,679 --> 00:34:59,360
corporate sort of appeal that
was alluded to comes to

699
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,440
fruition.
That's the natural kind of quick

700
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:05,160
question is it's where you know
where, where is the the

701
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:06,880
corporate activity in this gold
market.

702
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,800
Do you are you seeing kind of
you got heightened expectations

703
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:13,600
of of M&A?
Will Bellevue likely be acquired

704
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,120
in your opinion?
I mean, yeah, there's a pleasure

705
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:17,480
of other kind of potential deals
about you.

706
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,280
Got any thoughts?
Oh, certainly.

707
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,200
I mean as like to go back to
that point on permitting like it

708
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,520
is really, really hard to grow
or it's never mind growing, just

709
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,800
replace your production.
I mean, Remilius and Spartan,

710
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,600
case in point, you know, that a
bit of a, a bit of a gap in

711
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,640
their production profile and,
you know, they ended up paying

712
00:35:35,720 --> 00:35:37,320
well.
What, what in history might show

713
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,040
to be a good price for Spartan,
But there's, there's plenty of

714
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:43,680
other companies around like that
that need to replace their

715
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,040
reserves.
You know, it takes a long time

716
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:47,880
to be able to go gold processing
plant.

717
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,200
It takes a very long time to
permit a new project.

718
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,640
You know, Bellevue offers both
of those things for, you know,

719
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,840
for the right price.
So, you know, they, I think

720
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:57,920
they're probably going to be on,
you know, towards the top of a

721
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,080
lot of people's lists.
They're.

722
00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,560
Probably what the last gold mill
that got built of decent size.

723
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,560
Yeah, yeah, I would say.
What's been built since then?

724
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,680
Like there's a couple of refurbs
and everything, but there's not,

725
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,080
that's the thing.
Like to talk about like rocks,

726
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,320
for instance, to say they're
going to build a mill.

727
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:20,640
Like it's it's just doesn't
happen that often at all.

728
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:22,720
Takes a long time.
It takes a very long time.

729
00:36:22,720 --> 00:36:25,960
I think there's Bellevue and
there's the other one that went

730
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:28,280
ran into strife up up around
near Telfer.

731
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:29,720
Cal Cal.
They're the ones.

732
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,400
Yeah, yeah.
Norseman was recent too.

733
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,560
Yeah, yeah.
I actually want to dwell on on

734
00:36:34,720 --> 00:36:36,880
Bellevue for for a second longer
because I think there's some

735
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,520
interesting lessons to kind of
learn for, for investors and I

736
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,520
guess management.
I like not that I've got much to

737
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,440
add to the management side of
it, but the the fact that they

738
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:49,680
stayed with the the reserve
grade they did, the fact that

739
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:56,080
they stuck to the output and the
sort of roundness if you like,

740
00:36:56,080 --> 00:37:00,720
of the total reserve one 1.5
million oz one.

741
00:37:00,720 --> 00:37:06,600
Point 511.51 just slightly above
the yeah at incentives issued I.

742
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,480
Exactly, I don't think you need
to be a genius to point to

743
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,440
incentives pushing outcomes in
in this direction.

744
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,800
But I'm, yeah, just came to put
that up there and, and hear your

745
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,520
thoughts given you've got vastly
more experience than myself on

746
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,920
on how much you've learnt about
how management is guided by buy

747
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,680
their incentives and what what
that sort of means.

748
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,280
And and whether you as an
investor can, can navigate that,

749
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,520
can sort of read through the
packages and see whether that is

750
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,680
going to lead them into trouble
or is going to be the incentive

751
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,520
that leads it leads to a good
outcome.

752
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,720
Yeah, I mean, I think incentives
will deliver outcomes and you

753
00:37:42,720 --> 00:37:45,200
just hopefully those outcomes
are legitimate and that there's,

754
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,320
you know, there's not a bit of
gold seeking going, going in

755
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,320
there just to get just over the
the incentives.

756
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:55,360
But with with regard to the
reserve, I, you know, say if

757
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,200
they if it was recut by somebody
else and it came in at, you

758
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,960
know, 1.4 or 1.3 in the fullness
of time, are they going to find

759
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,640
another 200,000 oz there, you
know, with drilling every chance

760
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:07,960
that they would.
So I think that's that's less

761
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,640
concerning to me than the actual
grade.

762
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,640
And you go back to when they
were first drilling that out.

763
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,960
I mean, the, the number of
really high grade hits there

764
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,560
were were no, there's plentiful
and it was pretty consistent.

765
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:22,240
The tricky bit is, is of course,
trying to mine it without the

766
00:38:22,240 --> 00:38:24,520
dilution.
And you know, if you've, if

767
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,920
you're doing mining more slowly,
it will make that job easier.

768
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,400
I mean, you know, management,
the, the expert underground

769
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,280
miner, he'd be probably better
judged than I am.

770
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:36,920
But that's what, you know,
probably gave me a bit of, I

771
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,480
suppose conviction or, or
confidence that, you know, just

772
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,200
dial that mining rate down to
something that's realistic.

773
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,000
And then hopefully those grade
reconciliation issues will go

774
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,240
away and they can actually
deliver on what they what they

775
00:38:47,240 --> 00:38:48,040
say they can.
I.

776
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,680
Think and it's just, I don't
know, I think I mentioned it in

777
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:54,160
the last episode when you you've
got an ore body that's doing

778
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,480
that, like you can see how it
goes in and out and lights like

779
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,880
OK, which when you got, you
know, holes 20 or 40 meters

780
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:04,480
apart, like how do you determine
OK, is it that wide or that

781
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:07,640
wide?
Yeah, which will affect that

782
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,560
determine that it's going to be
that width the whole way through

783
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:15,440
and it ends up being bits where
it pinches in like it it just

784
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:19,280
looks like a really hard ore
body to estimate accurately.

785
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:23,040
And if you're being over
ambitious on it, which I think

786
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,800
they probably have been, that's
when you run into trouble.

787
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,920
Whereas if they said right,
we're just dropping the reserve

788
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:33,600
to 4 1/2 to be conservative and
have some potential nuggety

789
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,760
upside.
I think it'd be a bit more

790
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:41,120
comfortable, but I would it'd be
interesting to see on a 12 month

791
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:47,320
basis if we ever see 5 grams.
Yeah, yeah, No, that's true.

792
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:48,880
And and I mean time, time will
tell.

793
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:52,360
But yeah, I suppose that I mean
they, they have already cut the

794
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:55,080
cut the grade once, you know,
did they need to cut it in?

795
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,840
I mean, I can't say need to be
in the tent to to take that

796
00:39:58,840 --> 00:39:59,920
view.
I mean, obviously it would have

797
00:39:59,920 --> 00:40:02,320
been a little bit give a bit
more reassurance if they did.

798
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,120
But I mean, I'm there to take
them at their word.

799
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:07,840
And if you know, we'll find out
next quarter if the, you know,

800
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:09,960
all this news about the high
grade Stokes just missing the

801
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,440
quarterly cut off and all that
sort of stuff was was true, but.

802
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:16,000
You know, hopefully June will be
a lot better than March and, you

803
00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:18,560
know, put some confidence back
into, you know, the longer term

804
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,880
plan there.
If, if this is your, your kind

805
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,680
of outlook for, for gold and the
gold stocks, where, where does

806
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,320
that leave your outlook for
everything else?

807
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,080
In a lot of ways, because, you
know, imagine gold's running hot

808
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,720
because of, because of the
uncertainty with US fiscal

809
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:38,080
outlook.
Everything else is kind of a bit

810
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:40,400
under pressure given given
there's a bit of a bit of doubt

811
00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,320
about a global downturn.
Yeah, that's true.

812
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,560
And yeah, I suppose as I said
earlier on, it's been getting a

813
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,800
little bit worried about the
gold price running as hard as it

814
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,880
does because it doesn't have
good implications, exactly what

815
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:54,920
you said.
So yeah, I mean, we still,

816
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,960
there's a few select commodities
we still maintain exposure to.

817
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,920
We still got a bit of bauxite,
still have select exposures to

818
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:03,640
copper.
We're probably more weighted

819
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,960
towards companies that have
strong bottom up or company

820
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,520
specific catalysts or drivers in
place there.

821
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,680
You can't just be relying on a
commodity price into a, you

822
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:14,800
know, into the face of the the
macro that we've got at the

823
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,480
moment.
So certainly yeah, being not

824
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:21,320
doing a huge amount of all
probably adding my sports, I

825
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:25,200
should say adding more to stocks
that we we know and you know

826
00:41:25,240 --> 00:41:27,600
have have conviction in those
bottom up catalysts rather than

827
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,440
just relying on, you know a
commodity price bounce to make

828
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:31,920
money are there?
Any other commodities that you

829
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,840
have a positive short term
outlook on?

830
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,640
Well, I mean, things like coke
and coal is starting to look

831
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:40,480
interesting.
I mean, we haven't added any

832
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,640
recently, but I mean that's into
the cost curve.

833
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,680
Now you start to see Glencore
cutting tons.

834
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,320
You know, the industrial
production data out of China is

835
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:51,480
looking a little bit better.
So I mean, it's, you know,

836
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:53,760
they're not spending any money
on property, but just the the

837
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,720
infrastructure demand for steel,
I think should steel should pull

838
00:41:57,720 --> 00:41:59,840
through to a bit of more coke
and coal demand.

839
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:01,240
So that's looking a little bit
interesting.

840
00:42:01,720 --> 00:42:04,320
I mean, rare earths is continues
to look in for string

841
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:08,400
interesting amongst the the
trade war sort of push and push

842
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:10,600
and pull.
And also these are humanoid

843
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:14,480
robots, which I, you know, sort
of got a bit of an infatuation

844
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:16,880
with like, you know, the price
point for these things is really

845
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,160
starting to plummet.
Are these I think I saw there's

846
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,680
one in September, a humanoid
robot, which, you know, buy for

847
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:27,840
the, you know, bargain price of
about 96,000 US and it would do

848
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,440
you you're washing, fold your
washing for you and and cook

849
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:36,720
simple meals like similar robots
to that are now 40,000 US, you

850
00:42:36,720 --> 00:42:37,960
know, in the space of six
months.

851
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:41,880
So those, you know, the the
functionality of them and the

852
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:43,920
price points just keep on
getting better and better and

853
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,520
better and you know that will be
a driver of rare earth demand.

854
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,520
So again, you know, off a low
base, but something that I'm

855
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:50,440
watching.
But yeah, those 2 jump out is is

856
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,360
something.
Signed me up for one of them.

857
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:56,320
I'm fucking sick of washing
shirts, washing everything.

858
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,800
Yeah, it's, I reckon if they get
to, if they get sort of 2530

859
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:04,720
grand per unit, I mean that's,
you know, if you basically have

860
00:43:04,720 --> 00:43:07,960
domestic staff for the, you
know, for the warranty of the

861
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,320
warranty period, I think people
would think very closely.

862
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:13,280
I think they work carefully.
About it, I'll split.

863
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:14,840
Yeah, we'll do one week on, week
off.

864
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,520
It's a bit of a trial.
Yeah, that's a good idea.

865
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,600
To to go deeper in that the the
common way people would phrase

866
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:24,000
it to play it is liner slash MPs
or or the rest.

867
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:25,680
Do you do you go to the the
juniors?

868
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:27,360
How do you think about it in in
those terms?

869
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:33,200
I think, I mean, I'm certainly
have a a bias towards the high

870
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:36,200
grade rare earth project.
So yeah, Linus is the obviously

871
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,280
one, but I mean, Brazilian rare
earths is is another one we've

872
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:44,120
been in for for a long time.
Very, very high grade resources.

873
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:46,080
And well, they don't have
reserves yet, but resources at

874
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,560
the moment will will turn into
reserves in in time some of

875
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,600
these, you know, lower grade
projects.

876
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,400
I just, you know, I just sort of
struggle with a little bit.

877
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:56,800
It's not.
And some of them have had, you

878
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,960
know, fantastic bounces in share
price over the last couple of

879
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:02,240
weeks.
But yeah, I mean, I just, I just

880
00:44:02,240 --> 00:44:04,200
want the higher grade and and
hopefully the margin.

881
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:08,280
And do you think those the the
Ionic sort of style projects are

882
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,400
the ones that are going to be
real winners in in the future

883
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,880
these, you know, handful of
Brazilian projects?

884
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,680
It's going to come down to a
battle for, you know, who can

885
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,480
get their costs lowest because
there's no, you know, rare

886
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:23,800
earths, very small market.
What are we, 100 and 3000 and

887
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,480
40,000 tons per annum or
something like that?

888
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,200
So you know, a bit like lithium,
once these projects start coming

889
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,960
on, you're going to be bringing
in sort of 10% of global supply,

890
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,040
like in a big chunk.
And you know, you could have a

891
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:38,880
market, well, you probably will
have a market that tips into

892
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:42,040
surplus reasonably quickly, not
dissimilar to lithium.

893
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:46,240
So it'll come down to who has
the lowest position on the cost

894
00:44:46,240 --> 00:44:48,120
curve and who can get into
production the fastest, I

895
00:44:48,120 --> 00:44:52,320
suppose is the other big one.
So, yeah, I mean that's that's

896
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:53,760
sort of the way we the lens we
look through.

897
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,280
Auto, I don't know if you've
heard, but there's a lot of

898
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,760
commodities out there that have
got like structural supply

899
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:03,360
deficits, there's a supply
demand gap for the future.

900
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:05,560
I could see you had this smile
on your face.

901
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:07,760
You just had a joke in the
works.

902
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:09,360
What?
Which one do you think?

903
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:13,600
Which one are you betting on is
going to pop first out of

904
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:20,480
mentioned coke and Carl Uranium.
Copper pin has come back you

905
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:24,400
would say hasn't popped yet.
Lithium.

906
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:26,480
People have a bullish demand
outlook for.

907
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:30,400
All them, pretty much everything
except commodity except gold.

908
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:34,320
What are you thinking is primed
for the take off 1st?

909
00:45:35,720 --> 00:45:37,480
Yeah, there's, there's quite a
long list there.

910
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:40,280
I was starting what's.
The other 70% invested in

911
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:44,720
outside of the 30% in gold.
So lithium I I think is there's

912
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:48,080
no popping there.
I mean, maybe it grinds higher

913
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:51,080
from where it is just to, you
know, give the the guys a little

914
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,000
bit of the producers, a little
bit of margin.

915
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,520
But there's that many projects
around the place and that much

916
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,320
shuddered capacity that you can
bring on a quite a bit He's.

917
00:45:58,320 --> 00:45:59,920
Got to say something else that
starts with shit.

918
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:07,440
So I don't cross that cross that
one off cooking call.

919
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:10,640
I think is is a reasonable
chance of, you know, maybe

920
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:14,000
towards the back end of this
year of doing something tin.

921
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:19,000
I mean the goings on in like
Miramar, I think it is and also

922
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:21,240
that mine that got shuttered in
the Congo.

923
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:23,880
I mean, you sort of that's a
geopolitical thing.

924
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:27,000
I mean, never mind about the the
fundamentals of the commodities.

925
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:28,720
They're going to either make
friends in the Congo and get

926
00:46:28,720 --> 00:46:31,800
back into mining, get back
mining tin or or not.

927
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,200
I mean, I was waiting to see
what we'll see what happens.

928
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,400
But.
And so some of the others you

929
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,000
had uranium.
Yeah, uranium.

930
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:42,640
That's the interesting one.
My understanding there is that

931
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:48,120
the the utilities, specifically
in the US utilities seem very

932
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,320
relaxed around replenishing
their inventories.

933
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,320
And I think that, you know,
there was a whole wave of

934
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:57,800
projects like added to the list
of future supply, which you know

935
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,400
sort of ballooned when the price
went to 100 bucks a pound.

936
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,160
And then everybody had a project
they were going to bring on.

937
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,720
And you know, the global supply
sort of forecast factored all

938
00:47:05,720 --> 00:47:10,000
those projects in.
And so my understanding is the

939
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,720
the utilities take that as
gospel.

940
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:14,040
They haven't sort of factored
in.

941
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,200
We'll hang on it at $60.00 a
pound.

942
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,480
A lot of those projects just
aren't coming online.

943
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,400
So that supply is just not
there.

944
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,480
And until they start realising
that and perhaps start buying

945
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:29,160
again or adding pounds again,
the price is, you know, likely

946
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,000
to probably stay more or less
where it is, you know, failing

947
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,760
some sort of, you know, disaster
by CASAD and prom or something

948
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,360
else like that.
So I'm not sure when they might

949
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,040
change you maybe towards the
back end of the calendar year

950
00:47:41,040 --> 00:47:42,560
might be next year.
I mean, it's very, you know,

951
00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:44,560
this is the problem with
investing like the what's

952
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,440
reasonably straightforward, the
when is the hard part.

953
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:50,720
But yeah, that, that's what I
think more than anything else is

954
00:47:50,720 --> 00:47:51,920
holding uranium back at the
moment.

955
00:47:51,920 --> 00:47:54,560
It's just those utilities coming
to terms with what they need and

956
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,200
and when they decide they need
it.

957
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:57,360
What?
About start buying.

958
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:01,160
What about copper sitting around
those low $4.00 of pounds?

959
00:48:02,720 --> 00:48:06,080
If that crept up to high fours,
that really changes the

960
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,160
landscape and like it got up to
what, 450 I think.

961
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:14,000
But now it's sort of trace back
that's, you know, that's been

962
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:15,640
talked about for what, four or
five years now.

963
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,840
Yeah, you're right.
I, I mean, I sort of this, you

964
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:21,160
know, over this year watching
the copper market, I've sort of,

965
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:25,680
I mean, I've sort of veered away
from this structural deficit,

966
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,680
the matic in copper and that
there's going to have to be some

967
00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:31,080
massive pop in price because
it's been, you know, a forecast

968
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:35,200
deficit deficit for so long.
Like companies for years now

969
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:40,400
have invested sort of counter
cyclically almost because of the

970
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:42,560
belief of higher prices out in
time.

971
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,280
So take Carapatina for example,
osminerals.

972
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,800
I mean, that was never really a
fantastic project, but I think

973
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:52,200
it was the conviction in higher
prices out in the future that

974
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,400
investors were happy to see what
was, you know, really a pretty

975
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,000
challenging operation being
brought into production.

976
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:00,440
And yes, I think you're seeing
that the world over, like, you

977
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,840
know, there are still mines
being bought in into production.

978
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,240
And so that deficit is always,
you know, just over the horizon.

979
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:10,680
And whilst companies have
conviction that that, you know,

980
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:13,440
that deficit is there, they
will, they'll continue to do

981
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,560
exactly that invest ahead and,
and try and find these projects.

982
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:20,760
And maybe, you know, eventually
a lot of these, the projects

983
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:24,240
that are being brought on now
were discovered 20 or 30 years

984
00:49:24,240 --> 00:49:26,280
ago.
And that arc, that sort of

985
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,440
archive of exploration success
will eventually be depleted.

986
00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,200
And then you're going to have to
go find something new.

987
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,440
Then maybe that changes things.
But you know, I'll probably

988
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,520
think, you know, you've got a
bit of a, a Chinese buying, you

989
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:39,040
know, at $4.00 and that's the
put.

990
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:43,040
And then above that, you know,
you probably grind higher slowly

991
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:44,520
depending on what the macro is
doing.

992
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:49,240
But back to Trav's point earlier
with, you know, tariffs noise at

993
00:49:49,240 --> 00:49:52,320
the moment, the, you know, the
macro for base metals is, is not

994
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,160
all that great.
We'd need to see some stability

995
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:57,880
and a bit more confidence in, in
global sort of GDP growth to,

996
00:49:57,920 --> 00:49:59,200
you know, push these things
higher.

997
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,320
I.
Was I was surprised saying BHP

998
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,120
results saying how Escondidas
back up to producing about 1.4

999
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:10,320
million tonne of copper per
annum which had and at 1% last

1000
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:13,000
quarter.
So that's like I think that's

1001
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,200
what it used to produce.
Then it dropped down a lot

1002
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,840
lower.
Now it's like re bloody hit a

1003
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:20,280
purple patch.
Through no.

1004
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,040
Through throwing no small amount
of cash out?

1005
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:23,560
Oh yeah, most.
Definitely.

1006
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:25,080
Yeah, yeah.
But I mean, that's that's

1007
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:26,600
exactly the yeah, exactly what
I'm talking about.

1008
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:29,240
You know, they're trying, you
know, these big companies, big

1009
00:50:29,240 --> 00:50:30,880
balance sheets, all looking for
growth.

1010
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,360
They'll they'll spend billions
of dollars to breathe a bit more

1011
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,440
life into these, into these
assets.

1012
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:40,120
I think isn't Trump just gave
the green light on resolution in

1013
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:42,960
Arizona, that one that's been
tied up in permitting for about

1014
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:43,800
20 years.
Yeah.

1015
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:46,040
So there's another decent wedges
supply that, you know, might be

1016
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,600
coming our way in another couple
of years time.

1017
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,880
So, you know, that sort of
deficit gets pushed out a little

1018
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:52,720
bit further, but.
Isn't that the one?

1019
00:50:52,720 --> 00:50:54,960
Is it like 1/2 case underground
or something?

1020
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,160
It's a mile underground or
something like that.

1021
00:50:57,240 --> 00:50:58,880
Oh yeah, dark and deep,
apparently.

1022
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:00,040
It's hot too.
I'd.

1023
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:04,000
Imagine it's bloody hot.
Yeah, Arizona and 1/2 case down

1024
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,320
to be hot.
What about iron ore?

1025
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,240
I find it pretty hard to get
excited.

1026
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,480
I know.
I mean, I think at best it sort

1027
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,480
of trundles along at the top of
the cost curve.

1028
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:19,040
It's just, you know, 85 to
$90.00 a tonne for the

1029
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:22,040
foreseeable future.
I don't think there's any big

1030
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:25,920
wave of demand that's going to
require higher cost tons back

1031
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,800
into the into the market.
I mean, China's preference for

1032
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:35,400
spending money on manufacturing
and infrastructure at the

1033
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:39,600
exclusion of property just means
that big structural tailwind for

1034
00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:41,920
iron ore has probably come to an
end to the, you know, the

1035
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:46,560
urbanization within China.
Once Simon do comes online, you

1036
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:50,280
know, plenty of conjecture
about, you know, how long it

1037
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,800
will take that project to ramp
up, but there is more supply

1038
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:56,120
coming.
So it looks, you know, pretty,

1039
00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:58,480
you know, pretty boring, I
think, but boring might be good

1040
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:00,040
for some people.
I mean your, your major miners

1041
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:02,960
in WA are still going to make a
very healthy margin at anywhere

1042
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:06,120
near sort of 85 US, particularly
with our currency where it is at

1043
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:07,720
the moment.
So they'll be fine.

1044
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:10,640
But you your returns probably
more likely the dividend rather

1045
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,280
than capital growth I would have
thought.

1046
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:16,160
And there's a couple of, you
know, differing views about

1047
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,560
Simandu.
One the obviously they had the

1048
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:21,800
the newspaper headlines the the
Pilbara killer killer because

1049
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:24,760
those high quantity of tons at a
very high grade are going to

1050
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:27,760
displace a lot of the demand out
of the Pilbara.

1051
00:52:27,760 --> 00:52:31,680
But then there's opposite view
saying that that's probably the

1052
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,240
tons coming out of there are
probably going to displace a lot

1053
00:52:34,240 --> 00:52:39,840
of China's lower grade stuff.
That they're using internally

1054
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:42,880
and it won't have as much of an
effect on the Pilbara.

1055
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,520
What do you what do you think?
I think the the steel generally

1056
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:48,520
the blast furnaces are pretty
fluid with the the type of iron

1057
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:50,960
ore that they can take.
So it comes down to a value when

1058
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:53,880
use question like, you know, you
might have a higher grade iron

1059
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,440
ore which each, you know, you
can charge more for.

1060
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,640
But ultimately, unless the steel
mill is going to make, you know,

1061
00:53:00,640 --> 00:53:03,120
that additional, you know,
margin on putting through that

1062
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:06,040
higher grade, or they might opt
for some lower grade or because

1063
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,280
it's cheaper and and they can,
you know, they don't have a

1064
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,360
problem dealing with the
impurities or they can blend it

1065
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,360
out or whatever.
So I think the latter in terms

1066
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:16,640
of that scenario like that that
Simon do will displace the, you

1067
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:20,560
know, the probably the Chinese
production from the top of the

1068
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:22,720
cost curve.
I don't think it'd be, it won't

1069
00:53:22,720 --> 00:53:26,000
be displacing Pilbara stuff.
But if you take out the top of

1070
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:28,320
the cost curve or the cost curve
moves lower and that means the

1071
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:31,400
price moves lower.
That's I mean, you know, China

1072
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:36,800
has been, you know, dearly
trying to, you know, shake

1073
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,680
Australia's divine ore dominance
and Brazil as well, for that

1074
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:41,680
matter, for years and years and
years now.

1075
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:45,000
So, yeah, I mean, they'll,
they'll make it work at some

1076
00:53:45,000 --> 00:53:46,080
point.
I mean, Guinea's already

1077
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:49,560
exporting 100 and 2000 and 30
million tons of bauxite per

1078
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,040
annum, so to say they can't do
the SIM something similar with

1079
00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:53,840
iron ore, I think it's probably
being a little bit naive.

1080
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:58,120
What and China's stake in Simon
do overall, is it well over

1081
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:02,640
half, isn't it of the output
because Rios would be about 1/4

1082
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:04,000
there's?
Blocks one and two, then there's

1083
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,320
blocks three and four, and both
of those have different

1084
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:07,920
ownership.
I think it isn't.

1085
00:54:07,920 --> 00:54:09,480
Ultimately, there'll be a
hundreds.

1086
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:13,040
As all China, isn't it?
Ultimately, there'll be 120

1087
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:18,000
million tons and Rios will
account for 27.

1088
00:54:18,240 --> 00:54:20,160
Yeah, and the reminders, pretty
much.

1089
00:54:20,520 --> 00:54:23,840
Mostly, yeah.
Chanel Co has a has a big chunk

1090
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,200
and a government.
Of Guinea has a yeah, block two

1091
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:28,920
yeah.
Big stake, yeah, that's.

1092
00:54:29,360 --> 00:54:31,240
Going to be a big change to the
market when it does come in.

1093
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:37,320
Yeah, yeah.
On, on uranium, it's, it's

1094
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,560
interesting the sentiment that
has kind of shifted there and,

1095
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:43,960
and as as like a, a, an
institutional buyer, do you get

1096
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:46,560
more interested now that the
sentiment has waned and are you

1097
00:54:46,560 --> 00:54:48,600
seeing kind of value emerge
there?

1098
00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,400
If so, where is the value?
Yeah, I mean that the short

1099
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,800
interest in particular has got
my attention.

1100
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:57,200
So, I mean, it is quite unusual
for companies like Boss to have

1101
00:54:57,640 --> 00:54:59,520
must be close to 25% short
interest.

1102
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:01,600
I mean that's a hugely crowded
trade.

1103
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:04,760
And as far as I can tell,
there's nothing wrong with Boss,

1104
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,200
the company itself.
I mean, their production's going

1105
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:09,720
reasonably well.
The balance sheet's fine.

1106
00:55:09,720 --> 00:55:13,840
So it must be a, a commodity
specific rationale for having

1107
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:17,640
that short position there.
And when these things unwind,

1108
00:55:17,640 --> 00:55:20,960
they can be spectacular.
So, you know, if you were short

1109
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,160
that that company or you're
short uranium equities in

1110
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,920
general, you'd want to be
crossing your fingers and toes

1111
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:27,680
that like CAS Adam prom doesn't
have some sort of accident and,

1112
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:29,640
you know, misguidance or
something like that.

1113
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:32,920
Because, yeah, these these
stocks could ratchet up 30% in a

1114
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:36,160
day.
So yes, does become much more

1115
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:39,600
interesting.
And I think, you know, I think

1116
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:44,360
the value is probably in some of
these projects that have pulled

1117
00:55:44,360 --> 00:55:47,800
back or deferred their
production plans as a result of

1118
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,960
the lower prices.
You know, things like, you know,

1119
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,360
Bannerman, Deep Yellow, I mean,
but even boss themselves with

1120
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,400
such, you know, such a high
level of short interest, it'd

1121
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:57,760
certainly be of interest.
Peninsula looks like it's in

1122
00:55:57,760 --> 00:55:59,440
dire trouble as well.
I.

1123
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:00,680
Haven't looked at that one for a
while.

1124
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,600
It's I think it.
Went into hold, I haven't seen

1125
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:06,240
if it's coming out yet, but
pretty much yeah, guidance looks

1126
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:09,800
like it's going to be yeah,
doesn't look like in good shape.

1127
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:12,480
That's probably going to be on
the market and it because with

1128
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:13,920
that short interest, it's
interesting.

1129
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:17,240
Like boss is obviously the
highest at 25%, but if you look

1130
00:56:17,240 --> 00:56:19,880
at like Paladin and deep yellow,
which I don't think they're not

1131
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:22,920
20, but they're days to cover
based on their volume are like

1132
00:56:23,240 --> 00:56:26,880
60 to 80 days where I think
bosses in 15.

1133
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,120
So like they're the ones that
are on a days to cover basis and

1134
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:32,880
the volume are really bloody,
really shorted.

1135
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:37,600
Yeah, Yeah, it's, it does look,
it does look really quite, you

1136
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:40,680
know, I'd be nervous I suppose
if I was in that position.

1137
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:44,240
But I mean, it's not dissimilar
to the level of short interest

1138
00:56:44,240 --> 00:56:46,440
that was in right throughout the
lithium space, you know, maybe

1139
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:50,080
12 months ago and turns out they
were largely right.

1140
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:55,560
So yeah, I mean, that's until
the utilities or somebody else

1141
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,200
start decides to start buying.
It's probably not going to end.

1142
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:01,680
But then because uranium is such
a small market, you know, you

1143
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:04,920
can get pushed around by the
financial players very easily.

1144
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:08,360
And so, you know, you could have
a have a situation where, you

1145
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:10,880
know, the spot price is being
sort of, you know, held by

1146
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:13,000
financial players and they're
short the equities.

1147
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:15,800
And until the equities, you
know, have to raise capital and

1148
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,280
give the opportunity for the
shorts to cover, then, you know,

1149
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:19,600
then maybe the whole thing or
reverse.

1150
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:21,880
So, you know, these sorts of
things are, you know, much

1151
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,160
speculated about, but there
probably is some truth to it, I

1152
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,040
think because.
Deep yellow, I think they've got

1153
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:31,040
I think they've got 240 mil cash
on end, but they're cat initial

1154
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:35,960
CapEx needed is about I think
it's 460 US, so 750 mil.

1155
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:40,680
So like it's, it looks like that
them and Bannerman and that are

1156
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:44,120
like, are they are they waiting
for a Chinese buyout in Namibia?

1157
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:47,720
Are they actually gonna cause
the the term price is actually,

1158
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:50,920
you know, pretty, pretty close
to what they've got in their in

1159
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:52,560
their studies.
But it's like, Hey, what are you

1160
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,320
waiting for?
Are you gonna lock in $81.00 for

1161
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:58,720
a 30 year mine life for deep
yellow or you're just kind of

1162
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,440
wait as long as possible and see
if someone buys it off you?

1163
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,360
Yeah.
Johnny Borshoff's body nearly

1164
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:05,800
Haiti, I think.
Yeah, he's getting getting on.

1165
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:08,920
But that point on the like the
spot price versus the term

1166
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:10,960
price, I'm a little bit
sceptical on that.

1167
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,680
Like, yes, I get it, the spot's
a small part of the market and

1168
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:15,560
all the volume that gets done at
the term price.

1169
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:20,200
But I mean, how often do you
find like the spot price will

1170
00:58:20,200 --> 00:58:24,920
end up leading term price?
So, yeah, and spots falling or

1171
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:27,400
has been falling below term for
a lot for a long time now.

1172
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:31,320
And maybe, you know, maybe no
contracts get written at, at

1173
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:34,200
lower term prices and you know,
we just have a period of low,

1174
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:36,840
low volume for a while and
eventually the spot goes back up

1175
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:40,280
again.
But I, yeah, I, I, I think at

1176
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:42,320
the spot price is indicative
that things aren't all, you

1177
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:44,040
know, well within the Iranian
market.

1178
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,760
Otherwise, nobody be transacting
at 60 bucks a pound or

1179
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:48,560
thereabouts.
Well, I think all the people

1180
00:58:48,560 --> 00:58:51,480
that are proposing to develop
aren't signing any contracts

1181
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:53,800
because they're delay, delaying
FID.

1182
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:57,160
And I think what there's what's
it, I think there's a 12

1183
00:58:57,160 --> 00:59:02,480
producing uranium mine, Uranium
companies in the world, like

1184
00:59:02,480 --> 00:59:05,640
there's actually not many
companies producing uranium.

1185
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,880
Well, that's, I mean there's
only a 67,000 ton market I

1186
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,200
think, you know, it's barely
half a Cape size carrier.

1187
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:12,440
It's got the world's uranium
supply.

1188
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:14,720
It's tiny.
So it's yeah, it wouldn't be

1189
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:16,480
many.
No one.

1190
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:19,000
Of the last commodities I'm keen
to touch on is energy.

1191
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:24,760
And in the specific context of
the Australia, let's start with

1192
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:26,640
East Coast.
What's what's happening over

1193
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:28,560
there in your view and how's it
sort of evolved over the past

1194
00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:30,800
year?
It's getting tighter and

1195
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:33,800
tighter.
So I mean last year through we

1196
00:59:33,800 --> 00:59:38,200
had a wind drought that went
from like mid-May through to the

1197
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:41,000
end of June.
And due to that absence of

1198
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:44,880
winds, Victoria or the East
Coast in general had to draw

1199
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:49,560
down on this gas storage at Iona
and it very nearly hit the sort

1200
00:59:49,560 --> 00:59:52,320
of the lower limit, the amount
of gas that you can draw out of

1201
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:53,320
that.
And then the wind started

1202
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:56,040
blowing in in July and
everything was OK.

1203
00:59:56,200 --> 00:59:57,440
Could.
You imagine if that happened in

1204
00:59:57,440 --> 01:00:00,040
Perth, what would Perth people
have to talk about if there was

1205
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:01,560
no wind?
Oh, I've never seen.

1206
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,240
The city know that how much,
what the speed of the wind is in

1207
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,240
the direction it's coming from.
Phenomenal.

1208
01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:08,480
Yeah.
I continue.

1209
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:13,600
We digress.
I mean this this year, you know,

1210
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,520
by, by the a triple C or
everybody's suggesting that the

1211
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,560
gas talents will be tighter than
last year.

1212
01:00:19,560 --> 01:00:20,960
And so then it comes down to the
weather.

1213
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:22,560
You know, you're crossing your
fingers and toes that you're not

1214
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:25,560
going to run out of gas.
And if you do run out of gas, we

1215
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:27,280
can see what's going to happen
because it's happening in New

1216
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:30,280
Zealand at the moment, like
there's 60% hydro.

1217
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,680
So for the most part, as long as
it's been a bit a bit of rain

1218
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:35,840
around, they're fine.
But you know, they banned gas in

1219
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:40,160
2018 and those wells are now
running out.

1220
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:44,160
And so when it doesn't rain,
they have a massive issues.

1221
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:47,480
And so last year they had to
shut down they're, you know, the

1222
01:00:47,480 --> 01:00:50,320
big industrial gas users, which
the Methanex, I think was the

1223
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:52,240
name of the company produces a
lot of methanol.

1224
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:55,120
But then all the suppliers to
Methanex also had to shut down.

1225
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:56,920
They had to shut down some of
their timber mills and pulp

1226
01:00:56,920 --> 01:00:57,920
mills and all sorts of other
stuff.

1227
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:02,040
So it's not, it's not good.
So then I suppose the, the short

1228
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:05,320
answer is it comes down to the
weather and see how whether it's

1229
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:08,320
cold and calm.
If it is, then you know, gas

1230
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:10,680
prices going to spike.
And if it's not, well, you know,

1231
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:13,760
we roll the kick the can down to
next year when everything, you

1232
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:16,320
know, things get a bit tighter
still and we go again.

1233
01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:19,040
But I think one of the big
challenges that the energy

1234
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,560
market in Australia has is the
seasonality.

1235
01:01:22,680 --> 01:01:26,960
So it's only really an issue in
winter and summer, which you

1236
01:01:26,960 --> 01:01:29,720
know, as far as the news cycle
goes, you once you get through

1237
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:32,240
that season and you get into
sort of the shoulder seasons for

1238
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:34,240
for energy demand, well, nobody
cares about it.

1239
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:36,240
And you think everybody thinks,
oh, hang on, it's this problem's

1240
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:37,840
gone away or no, it hasn't gone
away.

1241
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,600
It's just they're waiting and
it's waiting for a crisis to

1242
01:01:40,600 --> 01:01:42,440
happen and then something will
get done about it.

1243
01:01:43,120 --> 01:01:45,080
You, you wrote in your
newsletter that we have the most

1244
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:47,560
volatile energy markets in the
world.

1245
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:50,760
That was news to me.
That's incredible.

1246
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:52,560
Well, it's.
Because of the big swings in, in

1247
01:01:52,560 --> 01:01:57,320
the renewable generation.
So you, I mean SA's a a example

1248
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,520
of that.
Like the price will swing from

1249
01:01:59,520 --> 01:02:04,440
-22 dollars a MW hour.
And the only reason the price

1250
01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:07,240
goes negative is because the
renewable producers pick up

1251
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:10,200
something called an LGC or a
large generation certificate.

1252
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:13,440
And the value of those is about
$22.00 at the moment.

1253
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,320
So you can produce at a negative
price.

1254
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:18,800
And it's not until you get sort
of the LGC gap below 0 that you

1255
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,840
actually start losing money for
those, for those wind and solar

1256
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:23,760
producers.
So you know, that's the bottom

1257
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:26,720
end of the, of the, of the sort
of price spectrum.

1258
01:02:26,720 --> 01:02:30,400
And then when you start running
out of power, all the price

1259
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,000
spikes to almost anything.
And I think they've just raised

1260
01:02:33,000 --> 01:02:38,000
the cap to $20,000 per MW hour.
So that's your range and you

1261
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:41,440
don't always hit the top end of
the range, but you know, if if

1262
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:44,960
you have a hot summer evening
and and and there's no wind,

1263
01:02:44,960 --> 01:02:48,440
well, that's generally what
happens because we can you.

1264
01:02:48,440 --> 01:02:50,960
Explain that a bit more the the
top bound.

1265
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:53,240
Yeah.
So in in WA is a little bit

1266
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:54,760
different.
So we've got a capacity market

1267
01:02:54,760 --> 01:02:58,240
over here.
So we pay people with

1268
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,440
dispatchable capacity, we pay
them sort of a fee just to sit

1269
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:04,000
there and wait.
And if they're needed, well,

1270
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:07,280
they can come on.
But they don't rely on a massive

1271
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:09,960
price spike to make money
because they receive like a

1272
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:12,760
nominal fee or capacity payment
throughout the year.

1273
01:03:13,120 --> 01:03:15,280
The East Coast is a bit
different.

1274
01:03:15,280 --> 01:03:19,520
It's just a wholesale market.
So there's no for a long time,

1275
01:03:19,520 --> 01:03:21,240
there's no capacity payments
there.

1276
01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:25,000
So the only time so those gas
peakers make money is when

1277
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:27,920
there's a shortage of power and
the power price has to go to

1278
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:30,240
whatever it needs to to balance
the market.

1279
01:03:30,240 --> 01:03:32,520
So these guys, it's like.
Uber search pricing on YouTube

1280
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:34,560
Exactly.
Like that, exactly like that.

1281
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:38,760
So and that price can spike to
12,014 thousand 16,000, you

1282
01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:42,880
know, dollars per MW hour.
And when that happens, obviously

1283
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:45,360
all the gas peakers are
incentivized to come online, but

1284
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:49,000
also your aluminium refineries
and your big power users,

1285
01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:50,520
they're incentivized to shut
down.

1286
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:52,240
And that's what happens.
And I think they actually get

1287
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:54,240
paid to shut, get to get paid to
shut down as well.

1288
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:57,240
Yeah, it's not.
It's not great.

1289
01:03:57,800 --> 01:03:59,960
Oh no, that doesn't sound like a
healthy market.

1290
01:03:59,960 --> 01:04:02,240
No, it's not.
How do you, how are you

1291
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:05,720
investing kind of, you know
around this pretty, pretty

1292
01:04:06,040 --> 01:04:08,800
pretty dismal theme of of our
domestic markets?

1293
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:12,320
I think the I think this is
going to be a a bit of a global

1294
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:13,960
trend.
I think it is starting to happen

1295
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:17,240
in that, you know, so the Paris
agreement was in 2015.

1296
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:21,000
We're 10 years past that now.
I think the, you know, there,

1297
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,880
there was a big sort of pivot
towards wind and solar as being

1298
01:04:23,880 --> 01:04:26,000
the be all and end all and, and
maybe batteries.

1299
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:31,320
But I think the world is
realizing the value of

1300
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:33,720
dispatchable generation like
degeneration.

1301
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:36,000
You can actually switch on
whenever you need it, which is

1302
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:37,840
sort of what the value of
electricity is.

1303
01:04:37,880 --> 01:04:41,160
You know, that's it's a, it's a
service more than a commodity to

1304
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:44,560
my mind.
So I think dispatchable

1305
01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:47,480
generation has for a long time
been undervalued and I think

1306
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:50,960
it's going to be are recognized
or re recognized as having, you

1307
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,480
know, very high value and so
dispatchable generators.

1308
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:57,280
So people like, you know, QPM
energy, you've got a, you know,

1309
01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,720
the producing have a gas peaker
arrangement with their own gas

1310
01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:02,520
up in Queensland.
I think there's a another,

1311
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:06,560
another company called LGII
think, who are producing gas

1312
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:10,480
from from garbage dumps and and
making and producing power out

1313
01:05:10,480 --> 01:05:11,760
of that.
But again, it's dispatchable

1314
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:13,880
generation.
So, you know, those sorts of

1315
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:17,480
businesses I think will do quite
well over the next five years or

1316
01:05:17,480 --> 01:05:20,600
so.
And yeah, I think you get people

1317
01:05:20,600 --> 01:05:22,280
saying, Oh well, you know,
batteries are going to ruin the

1318
01:05:22,280 --> 01:05:24,480
mark of that.
So, you know, is the all the

1319
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:27,640
batteries that I see being built
to have duration of maybe 2

1320
01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:30,720
hours.
You know, before I think it was

1321
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:37,040
in one of Origins Investor Day
packs in 2023, they listed there

1322
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:44,000
was something like 8 no 220
instances within a year of more

1323
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:51,240
than 8 hours, sort of a gap
between wind and solar covering

1324
01:05:51,240 --> 01:05:54,200
demand I suppose.
So more than 8 hour gap for for

1325
01:05:54,480 --> 01:05:56,160
dispatchable generation to to
fill.

1326
01:05:56,160 --> 01:05:59,320
So you know, batteries are just
going to shift the problem 2

1327
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:01,960
hours to the right I think and
and that those dispatchable

1328
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:04,320
generators will still make good
money after that.

1329
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,520
Jeez, that's, that's, that's a
very interesting thought.

1330
01:06:07,680 --> 01:06:11,320
Yeah.
If you're 220 instances, yeah.

1331
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:15,000
Yeah, it's, it's in their deck.
I think the last year, last

1332
01:06:15,000 --> 01:06:16,640
year's Investor Day, Investor
Day deck.

1333
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:21,040
But and again, the, again, the
seasonal element of it, I think

1334
01:06:21,040 --> 01:06:23,120
a lot of people lose sight of
like we've got looks like we're

1335
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:25,680
going to get a battery subsidy
from the federal government

1336
01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:29,440
assuming labour gets in.
So everybody's batteries are

1337
01:06:29,520 --> 01:06:31,520
going to be that much, that much
cheaper.

1338
01:06:31,520 --> 01:06:33,200
And that's great through the
summertime.

1339
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:37,160
But anybody who's got solar on
their roof knows that your

1340
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:40,360
generation falls away during
winter and your, your battery

1341
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:44,360
will struggle to refuel off your
solar panels each each day.

1342
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:46,640
So there's you got to you have
it.

1343
01:06:46,640 --> 01:06:49,320
There's all these solutions
being lined up that you're only

1344
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:51,600
sort of partial solutions.
They're Band-Aid solutions.

1345
01:06:51,600 --> 01:06:55,800
And it doesn't negate the need
to have the, the gas and you

1346
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:58,600
know, if coal, if you need it,
they're to support the support

1347
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,000
the grid.
And if the grid goes down.

1348
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:04,720
And this is one of the one of
the things that figures I found

1349
01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:07,480
quite startling when I looked it
up is just the amount of value

1350
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:10,120
add or the cost of losing
electrical electricity

1351
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:13,560
generation.
So to run all of Australia, to

1352
01:07:13,560 --> 01:07:17,040
run for the power bill for all
of Australia is about $3,000,000

1353
01:07:17,040 --> 01:07:22,240
an hour, which is tiny.
But the GDP for Australia

1354
01:07:22,240 --> 01:07:26,200
overall is about a hundred,
$171,000,000 per hour.

1355
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:29,760
So the last thing you want is
the power to go out because the

1356
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:34,000
value add is so great.
The opportunity cost in a way of

1357
01:07:34,000 --> 01:07:36,600
what you miss out on, yeah.
Yeah.

1358
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:41,160
Last one, Sammy, for me as a
fund manager, you must have just

1359
01:07:41,160 --> 01:07:44,720
a enormous kind of amount of
people wanting your attention.

1360
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:45,920
Look at my project, look at my
company.

1361
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:48,480
Invest in my company, there's no
shortage of that.

1362
01:07:48,480 --> 01:07:52,040
So what is the the value in a in
a in a site visit when there's

1363
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:53,760
like, you know, hundreds of
things you could be investing

1364
01:07:53,760 --> 01:07:54,960
in?
How can what about like?

1365
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:58,280
Why is it worth, you know,
proportioning 2 days or one day

1366
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:00,480
be time to actually go conduct a
site visit?

1367
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:02,320
Yes.
It's always a challenge.

1368
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,520
I mean, you need to optimise
your your time because you want

1369
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:07,200
to cover as many bases as you
know cover look as many

1370
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:12,040
different things as possible.
I think it's the site visit.

1371
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:14,880
The best thing about site visits
or probably 2 best things about

1372
01:08:14,880 --> 01:08:18,200
site visits is 1 is appreciating
the scale of the opportunity,

1373
01:08:18,200 --> 01:08:21,240
which is not all why it doesn't
always come through in APDF.

1374
01:08:21,240 --> 01:08:22,720
You're looking at it your
computer at home.

1375
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:27,160
And Maddie May has had a good
example of that horribanda one,

1376
01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:29,319
that site visit, which you know,
went first time when there was

1377
01:08:29,319 --> 01:08:32,800
about five years ago, like the
scale of the exploration

1378
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:35,240
potential there, which you know,
immediately we don't pay for.

1379
01:08:35,240 --> 01:08:37,640
But just the the size of the
opportunity and and having the

1380
01:08:37,640 --> 01:08:41,359
context there was very which was
very important to that

1381
01:08:41,359 --> 01:08:43,720
investment decision.
And again, you know, probably

1382
01:08:43,720 --> 01:08:46,240
wouldn't have got it unless we'd
gone to site.

1383
01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:51,279
The other big, big example is,
is I suppose the competence of

1384
01:08:51,279 --> 01:08:55,640
management and how you know, and
whether or not you get a

1385
01:08:55,640 --> 01:08:58,600
consistent sort of view on
strategy, you know, through the

1386
01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:00,439
multiple tiers of management
that you speak through.

1387
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:03,840
But now again is another time is
assessing the country and that

1388
01:09:03,840 --> 01:09:05,960
can go both ways.
I don't know if you ever heard

1389
01:09:05,960 --> 01:09:09,760
that story about that French
mining analyst that went to the

1390
01:09:10,479 --> 01:09:12,319
got caught out on that trip in
Burkina Faso.

1391
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:18,279
Is this poor bastard.
He some French bloke was mining

1392
01:09:18,279 --> 01:09:21,840
analyst from society Generale is
doing on a mining site trip from

1393
01:09:21,840 --> 01:09:24,840
through Garner and Burkina Faso,
and he had a a typical Garner

1394
01:09:24,840 --> 01:09:27,520
and breakfast, which is, you
know, run one raw sausage, one

1395
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,560
cooked to a cinder and and one
raw egg and another one Brock

1396
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:33,000
hard.
Anyway, he's got up in the in

1397
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:35,760
the plane.
I'm on his way to Burkina and

1398
01:09:35,760 --> 01:09:39,960
about halfway in he's realized,
Oh no, these things aren't

1399
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:43,319
sitting well here and he's he
started sweating bullets.

1400
01:09:43,319 --> 01:09:45,920
It was an 8 seater plane.
There's no toilet on the plane.

1401
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:49,399
And this poor bastard's got this
sinking feeling like how how am

1402
01:09:49,399 --> 01:09:53,319
I going to solve this problem?
Anyway, eventually he sort of

1403
01:09:53,319 --> 01:09:56,240
comes to the realization there's
no other option.

1404
01:09:56,240 --> 01:09:59,760
So he's moves into the aisle,
stands up, opens his briefcase

1405
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:03,920
and says, gentlemen, for what
I'm about to do, I apologise.

1406
01:10:04,080 --> 01:10:09,160
And then just emptied his bowels
into his briefcase and shut it

1407
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:10,360
up again.
And that was the last time

1408
01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:15,560
anybody saw him.
Oh, Jesus Christ.

1409
01:10:15,560 --> 01:10:16,920
Yeah.
So what he did with the

1410
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:19,800
briefcase?
Why do I very dump that?

1411
01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:21,840
Strange.
That should have been framed and

1412
01:10:22,440 --> 01:10:23,640
petrified.
Yeah.

1413
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:26,480
So I mean, mind site food, you
need to, you need to be mindful

1414
01:10:26,480 --> 01:10:28,120
of what you're eating on these,
on these places, although

1415
01:10:28,120 --> 01:10:30,440
they're in, in WA at least it's
very, very good.

1416
01:10:30,880 --> 01:10:34,240
Is it site visits, especially
when you've got like site visits

1417
01:10:34,240 --> 01:10:39,120
with multiple funds and sell
side people going on.

1418
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:42,680
Is it sometimes good to go on
and 1 to get a freaking breaker

1419
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:46,280
from looking at your screen
every day but two, obviously

1420
01:10:47,080 --> 01:10:51,160
bounce around the ideas with the
fellow people on the trip.

1421
01:10:51,160 --> 01:10:53,120
Or do you prefer going by
yourself?

1422
01:10:53,240 --> 01:10:55,440
Yeah, it's a very good point.
And yeah, that would probably be

1423
01:10:55,440 --> 01:10:57,560
the number three reason to do it
is because, you know, if you

1424
01:10:57,560 --> 01:10:59,520
want to venture into an
investment, like you don't want

1425
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:02,040
to be first by six months, you
know, you want to be first by

1426
01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:04,760
like one month and know that the
cavalry's coming behind you.

1427
01:11:04,760 --> 01:11:08,080
So yeah, get to get a feel of
what, you know, what people are

1428
01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:11,560
looking at, their attitudes
towards various bits and pieces,

1429
01:11:11,560 --> 01:11:14,360
I think is certainly, certainly
part of it because yeah, you

1430
01:11:14,360 --> 01:11:16,680
don't want to be, you know, you
don't want to be hanging out

1431
01:11:16,680 --> 01:11:19,200
there by yourself for 12 months.
Yeah.

1432
01:11:19,200 --> 01:11:21,640
And when, but when you do go
like say you got a 2 day site

1433
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:24,920
visit, you might have limited
phone servers, but you're still

1434
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:28,520
responsible for all you're still
responsible for Ally J CS money,

1435
01:11:28,720 --> 01:11:31,880
yes.
And and everyone else, what's

1436
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:36,440
the process to actually monitor
the news portfolio and like

1437
01:11:36,440 --> 01:11:39,640
whether you might have to make a
decision on those days that

1438
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:43,760
you're not at the desk you
allocate yeah to someone.

1439
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:45,320
There's there's.
Always there's always somebody

1440
01:11:45,320 --> 01:11:47,960
else backing up.
So in my case you and also got a

1441
01:11:47,960 --> 01:11:50,320
slave of the portfolio.
So he's over in Sydney, OK,

1442
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:52,520
He's.
He's he's sort that out for us.

1443
01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,280
Yeah, yeah.
But Mii, this day and age,

1444
01:11:55,280 --> 01:11:58,280
though, it's pretty rare that
you're out out of reception for,

1445
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:01,360
you know, more than about, I
don't know, six hours or

1446
01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:03,240
something like that,
particularly in WI is pretty

1447
01:12:03,240 --> 01:12:06,000
good.
But yeah, you, you know, it's

1448
01:12:06,000 --> 01:12:08,240
probably a frustration of the
people that are hosting the site

1449
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:10,360
visits that all these fund
managers that you've, you know,

1450
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:13,040
you've hosted to, you know, go
and spook your wares to have

1451
01:12:13,040 --> 01:12:15,920
their nose buried in their phone
for half the time, which I

1452
01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:18,120
appreciate that frustration.
You try and try and put it down

1453
01:12:18,120 --> 01:12:19,320
and listen to what you're being
told.

1454
01:12:19,440 --> 01:12:21,600
Money never sleeps, Sammy.
Yeah, that's fine.

1455
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:25,840
Oh, that's been sensational as
always, mate.

1456
01:12:26,640 --> 01:12:31,080
What do we take from that coke
and coal couple March?

1457
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:32,760
Gold.
Hold on to your gold for a

1458
01:12:32,760 --> 01:12:34,280
little bit longer yet, at least
anyway.

1459
01:12:34,320 --> 01:12:37,280
Oh.
Well done on the the Orabanda

1460
01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:41,480
trade Cos I remember we were, I
think we're early days when we

1461
01:12:42,000 --> 01:12:44,560
talked to you.
We're like, you know, it doesn't

1462
01:12:44,560 --> 01:12:46,080
make sense.
They're producing it all in

1463
01:12:46,080 --> 01:12:48,320
sustaining costs above the gold
price.

1464
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:51,360
What's the goal here?
And you obviously hung hung

1465
01:12:51,360 --> 01:12:53,120
strong and obviously made a quid
on it.

1466
01:12:53,120 --> 01:12:55,360
Well done.
Yeah, that's worked out OK.

1467
01:12:55,360 --> 01:12:57,880
But yeah, you're only as good as
your last month, so I've got to

1468
01:12:57,880 --> 01:13:01,600
find another one now.
I've got a few on the my

1469
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:04,360
holdings that I'd appreciate if
you're bloody tipped into I'll.

1470
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:07,320
Give them to you afterwards.
Right, Sammy, Thanks very much,

1471
01:13:07,320 --> 01:13:09,360
mate.
Great fun as always.

1472
01:13:09,360 --> 01:13:11,320
Absolutely.
Pleasure, gentlemen, anytime.

1473
01:13:11,440 --> 01:13:13,560
Thanks to you, Sammy.
Right.

1474
01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:16,760
Oh, there we go.
God, he knows a lot of stuff

1475
01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:19,480
about a lot of shit.
Like he must read a lot or he

1476
01:13:19,480 --> 01:13:21,520
makes a lot of it up, but I
assume it's all true.

1477
01:13:22,200 --> 01:13:22,880
A lot.
About a lot.

1478
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:25,280
Yeah.
You know who else knows a lot

1479
01:13:25,280 --> 01:13:25,840
about a lot?
You.

1480
01:13:26,040 --> 01:13:28,360
Tell me JD, tell me, big fella.
Well, if.

1481
01:13:28,360 --> 01:13:29,800
You want to learn a lot about a
lot.

1482
01:13:29,800 --> 01:13:33,680
You better get your tickets to
the GRX Mining Innovation

1483
01:13:33,800 --> 01:13:37,200
Conference May 20 to May 22nd in
Brisbane.

1484
01:13:37,440 --> 01:13:38,800
Discounting the show, notes
Maddie.

1485
01:13:38,800 --> 01:13:40,640
You're going I've.
Already got my tickets and I

1486
01:13:40,640 --> 01:13:43,520
used the discount card.
You should too.

1487
01:13:43,520 --> 01:13:45,320
You should get in the show
notes, wouldn't you?

1488
01:13:45,320 --> 01:13:47,960
And a massive thank you to our
awesome partners, Mineral mining

1489
01:13:47,960 --> 01:13:51,640
services, rounded sandy ground
support, CR insurance, K drill,

1490
01:13:51,640 --> 01:13:55,280
WA water bulls, Quattro project
engineering, KCA site services,

1491
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:58,440
black diamond drilling services.
Last but not least, cross

1492
01:13:58,440 --> 01:13:59,480
boundary energy.
Tim.

1493
01:14:00,320 --> 01:14:02,800
Taylor.
Information contained in this

1494
01:14:02,800 --> 01:14:05,560
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1495
01:14:05,560 --> 01:14:08,200
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1496
01:14:08,240 --> 01:14:10,240
or needs of any particular
person.

1497
01:14:10,560 --> 01:14:13,600
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1498
01:14:13,600 --> 01:14:16,640
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1499
01:14:16,640 --> 01:14:20,320
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.