Unpacking a $20b undeveloped mine deal

1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:03,240
Rhino money miners, welcome back
to another week.

2
00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:06,600
We've got a big humdinger of an
iron ordeal to chat today,

3
00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:09,080
bought to you by the only mining
contractor I could think of

4
00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:11,560
that's not in the Pilbara.
That could hack it in the

5
00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:17,560
Pilbara Mineral Mining Services
MMS Top notch bloody open pit

6
00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,160
experts with the tech services
arm that they are recruiting

7
00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,000
for.
Follow the link in the show

8
00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,400
notes.
If you wanna become an MMS

9
00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,800
legend spearheaded by the great
Rob Ryan, get him up in the

10
00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,120
Pilbara.
It'll go from Robe Valley to Rob

11
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,200
Valley.
I think the.

12
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,160
Is up there.
I think the Mitsui deal hinged

13
00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:36,320
on this one mate.
Pretty bloody much.

14
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:38,680
And I reckon they're talking.
But if the Pilbara's big enough

15
00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,240
for them, like MMS have got
their sights on bigger

16
00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:42,040
ambitions.
Oh.

17
00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,400
Serious tons.
What would they be going?

18
00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:47,880
Maybe Simon do, I don't know.
Right.

19
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:52,120
Go out into the bloody roads.
Ridge deal coming out bloody.

20
00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:53,640
Wednesday I.
Think yeah.

21
00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,720
Wednesday, Yeah.
Talk of RIU.

22
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,360
How'd you pull up mate?
No, I got a bit, I caught some

23
00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,440
bloody super spreader event, but
a bloody fucking what a time.

24
00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,120
What a great time.
Great week.

25
00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,680
Cheers to the bloody Jack Owens,
Stewie.

26
00:01:07,960 --> 00:01:10,640
Brilliant day.
Brilliant few days and you got a

27
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,240
bit of bloody De Beers as well.
I.

28
00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,160
I, I want to chat just about
what's happening in the diamond

29
00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,960
market and, and there's lessons
there that apply to every

30
00:01:18,960 --> 00:01:21,320
commodity market.
I just think there's a a real

31
00:01:21,320 --> 00:01:24,360
important thing that people who
invest in these markets just

32
00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,800
really need to keep in mind, and
it's applicable no matter the

33
00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,120
market you care about.
Whether they make money or not.

34
00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:33,200
No, it's, it's, it's, it's
worse, Yeah.

35
00:01:34,320 --> 00:01:36,000
Suspense, right?
Take it away.

36
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,120
All righty, let's talk about
Rhodes Ridge.

37
00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,480
Maddie, this is a a fascinating
deal.

38
00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:45,160
And Travis, you mentioned, mate,
the biggest implied valuation on

39
00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:47,040
an undeveloped mining asset
ever.

40
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:48,400
Ever transacted.
Ever.

41
00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,600
Yeah, transacted.
Yeah, huge.

42
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,520
And for an asset that's not
producing and it's not going to

43
00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,520
produce in the immediate future,
we're talking about sort of

44
00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,520
20-30 production.
So just mind boggling numbers.

45
00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:05,560
Mitsui bought a 40% stake.
They paid US 5.34 billion.

46
00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,840
In Aussie dollar terms, that's
8.4 billion.

47
00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,720
That's that's for for 40% stack.
So the implied valuation for

48
00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,840
100% of this asset whopping US
13 billion or in Aussie dollar

49
00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:21,240
terms $20 billion is what 100%
of Rose Ridge it's worth.

50
00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,960
It's a startling number.
Chunky, right.

51
00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:28,200
So this was purchased off the
the heirs to Peter Wright's

52
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:29,720
fortune.
He was of course the business

53
00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:31,680
partner of Lang Hancock back in
the day.

54
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:35,280
He passed away in the 80s.
And this is also looking at it

55
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,640
from the Mitsui perspective,
biggest investment they've ever

56
00:02:38,640 --> 00:02:41,920
made.
And as you can see in the the

57
00:02:41,920 --> 00:02:46,720
transcript of the presentation
by the boss at Mitsui and in the

58
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,000
detailed notes that sort of
provided, this was decades in

59
00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,880
the making.
This isn't just happened

60
00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:53,920
overnight, It didn't happen in
the past couple of years.

61
00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,080
They've been sort of building
this relationship for a long,

62
00:02:57,080 --> 00:02:59,200
long time.
It's it's so interesting when

63
00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:02,080
you read that bit because so
these are these are the direct

64
00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:06,040
words from so we CEO Kanichi
Hori says with that foundation,

65
00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:09,120
we set our sights on Roads
Ridge, the last large scale

66
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,640
undeveloped iron ore deposit in
WA and a true crown jewel of the

67
00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:15,600
region.
We've been building relationship

68
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,080
with the owner families since
the 2000s.

69
00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,800
Back then, there were many
obstacles and progress in

70
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:24,560
discussions was limited.
But by staying committed and

71
00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,160
strengthening our ties, passing
down the baton from one

72
00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:29,800
generation to another, we
finally secure the opportunity

73
00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:34,000
of an exclusive negotiation.
Now after 20 years of efforts,

74
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,680
we've reached an agreement to
acquire an interest in this

75
00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:41,000
incredibly scarce asset.
Those words are really heavy

76
00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,080
when you when you when you read
them and it's and it's just

77
00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,760
remarkable to even conceptualize
A20 year 20 plus year

78
00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,600
negotiation that's that's been
had, you know, through multiple

79
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:54,920
kind of generations.
Shit loaded Nobu dinners, bit of

80
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,960
fine dining.
All part of the process, mate.

81
00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,760
No, it's, it's phenomenal.
And we'll talk about the the

82
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:04,200
Japanese mindset to business a
bit later on because I think it

83
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,160
is particularly relevant to all
the deals that we're talking

84
00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,200
about in, in recent times.
And of course it's not really a

85
00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:14,080
a super new trend sort of in
their MO for decades.

86
00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,959
So let's give a bit of a
refresher on the the asset

87
00:04:17,959 --> 00:04:19,200
itself.
So everyone's kind of on the

88
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,279
same page.
The PFS for this project will

89
00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,960
come out this year and like I
said, they're looking to produce

90
00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,680
in 20-30.
But it's not a new asset.

91
00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,080
It was discovered a long, long,
long time ago.

92
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,840
It's an asset of enormous scale.
The resource is about 6.8

93
00:04:33,840 --> 00:04:40,880
billion tons at 61.6% iron and
there's a a 5.7 billion tons of

94
00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,560
the component within that.
That's at 62.3%.

95
00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:48,120
So when you put that in the
context of the declining or ore

96
00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,480
quality in the pill break, it
really stands out.

97
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,600
They're looking at producing 40
million tons per annum to start

98
00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:56,680
and scaling that up to 100
million tons per annum.

99
00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,640
And it makes a lot of sense
given the the scale of the ore

100
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:00,880
body.
If you're going at 40 million

101
00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,520
tons per annum, you're going to
be mining for 170 years on Rio's

102
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,600
numbers.
So the government application

103
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,320
that's put forward that you can
sort of pry a little bit into as

104
00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:13,280
a 25 year mine life, but that's
just an application.

105
00:05:13,280 --> 00:05:16,920
I'm sure there's much more sort
of nuance to a potential mine

106
00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,800
plan that we might get a bit of
colour on later this year.

107
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,000
That's pretty much like there's
not many out there like this

108
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:27,560
that can fade the Pilbra blend,
like the Pilbra blend 62%, which

109
00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,200
takes a bit below, a bit above.
And this is obviously low

110
00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,200
phosphorus as well.
Yeah, I couldn't find anything

111
00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,920
on the silica and the alumina,
but we'll get to that later.

112
00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:39,480
But yeah, it looks like there's
not much.

113
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,400
Yeah, as I say, what FMJ mines
sub 60 all the time.

114
00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,040
A. 100% that is that.
Bilber blends.

115
00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:48,640
So bilber blends.
The Rio 1 Newman blend is the

116
00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:52,000
BHP 1 and they're like the 62%
flagships.

117
00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:53,360
Yeah.
And we'll talk about the, the

118
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:57,040
ore quality in a moment because
I think it's super relevant and

119
00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,680
of course Mitsui reference it a
lot.

120
00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:00,520
They they speak like you say
about the the phosphorus.

121
00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,400
It's hard to actually find out,
you know, to the content silica,

122
00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:08,000
these other types of deleterious
elements, that being real,

123
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,480
they're not a sort of
forthcoming with all this info,

124
00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,280
but how it sort of ties in with
the sweetness and very

125
00:06:14,280 --> 00:06:18,880
interesting slides on DRI and
HBI and how this fits into a

126
00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:21,440
world where you're trying to
decarbonize the the steelmaking

127
00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,960
process.
It's quite intriguing just to

128
00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,000
round out.
DRI and HBI, sorry.

129
00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,440
Direct reduced iron and hot
briquet.

130
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,680
Hot briquetted iron.
So it's, it's that method of

131
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,080
playing into the electric arc
furnace angle as opposed to just

132
00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,560
a traditional blast furnace,
which is a lot more emissions

133
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:45,640
intensive to round out on the
the asset itself, it's it's

134
00:06:45,640 --> 00:06:49,880
further to the interior to a lot
of Rio's other projects, which

135
00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:54,400
is relevant because it can rely
on by a large extent the rail

136
00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,480
that's been built out, of
course, the port, all these

137
00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,440
sorts of things.
But that's a massive appeal for

138
00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:01,480
Mitsui.
The the Capec that's already

139
00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,840
been sunk into the ground there
makes the economics look quite

140
00:07:04,840 --> 00:07:06,880
attractive.
And when you look very closely,

141
00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,080
you can see the West Angeles,
that's a Mitsui 33% owned

142
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:15,080
project, Rio 50 that sits within
the road breather, JV Nippon

143
00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,440
Steel also in there.
It's funny that JV, yeah, you

144
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,200
got W Angeles over here and then
Rogue Valley all the way up the

145
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,400
other end, right?
But it's obviously a blending

146
00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,760
thing because, Oh no, it's not
because Rogue Valley's a stand

147
00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,400
alone product.
It's like Andy was because it's

148
00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,800
low grade, high, high silica,
high alumina.

149
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,680
Yeah, the the product sort of
sweet that they put forward.

150
00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,600
It's it's fascinating and you
get in the investor seminars

151
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,080
that Rio do like once a once a
year, bits and pieces of

152
00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:42,640
insights.
It's always really interesting

153
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,880
to hear how they think about it.
Why it wasn't developed is a

154
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:48,840
super interesting point as well.
The.

155
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,320
Words right out of my mouth.
JD, do you have the answer?

156
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,760
I have it in I have it in part
so you can go.

157
00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:58,640
This was discovered, you know, a
long time ago, like I said, well

158
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,640
before 2000, throughout the
2000s, there was a super intense

159
00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:05,160
legal battle.
And I, and I hear, and in a few

160
00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,080
of the books written about Gina,
they, they sort of speak about

161
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,440
the lawyers just loving it.
Every, every lawyer across the

162
00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,720
country was lapping it up
because you had on the one side,

163
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:17,440
there's to Peter Wright, on the
other side, Jenna Reinhardt.

164
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,920
And they were, they were just
going at it.

165
00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,320
Both rich listers at the time
already.

166
00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,280
They're all substantially richer
nowadays, but deep pockets.

167
00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,920
There were a lot of legal fees
being expended at the time.

168
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,400
And it's kind of interesting
because the the two gents split

169
00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,360
up a lot of the assets they had
before their passing.

170
00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:39,960
Sort of.
Peter died in the mid 80s,

171
00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:42,520
playing in the early 90s.
So they were, they were, they

172
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,560
were trying to split the assets
that were jointly, jointly owned

173
00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,120
just.
Yeah, and they were.

174
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:48,800
With the intention of.
They were all jointly owned

175
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:50,240
because they were business
partners, right?

176
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,760
But they split them up so that
their descendants wouldn't

177
00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:55,800
argue.
But the reason this project

178
00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,360
didn't get developed for a long
time is because of legal

179
00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,520
fightings, because their their
children did fight over.

180
00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:02,880
They still managed to find a
way.

181
00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:05,640
Yeah.
So there's a, there's a whole

182
00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,160
history there.
And like I said, in some of the

183
00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,600
books that have been written
about it, they do go into it in

184
00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,000
a bit of detail.
But this was the asset that that

185
00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,240
side of the the business, the
right side had.

186
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,600
There's royalties and all these
other things that pay them

187
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,720
handsomely.
But this was the actual

188
00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,360
ownership stake in an asset that
they maintained for a for a long

189
00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:26,480
time.
There's another really

190
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,040
interesting detail I want to
mention.

191
00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:32,320
I couldn't, I couldn't miss
because I think, you know, money

192
00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:34,280
miners that love the sort of
history of these things will,

193
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:35,680
will get a real kick out of
this.

194
00:09:35,680 --> 00:09:39,240
The, the junior Khazaley jumped
on one of the tenements that's

195
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,360
part of Rhodes Ridge in 2005.
Rio were kind of asleep at the

196
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:44,880
wheel.
They blamed a Courier who didn't

197
00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:49,400
get the docks to them in time.
Khazaley came down, they did a

198
00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:52,080
deal with BHB.
Their stock jumped from well

199
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,200
below $0.50 to nearly 3 bucks on
this deal.

200
00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,040
It it isn't the whole thing, but
it's a tenement in the area

201
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,760
called Shavalana.
And then subsequently the mines

202
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,400
minister came, took the tenement
off them, gave it back to Rio

203
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:09,520
Tinto and cited sovereign risk
in Australia wanting to it to be

204
00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,200
a stable investment
jurisdiction.

205
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:17,160
A few other kind of points as to
why Rio despite, you know, not

206
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,240
exactly being too too switched
on, not not their most glorious

207
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,440
moment.
You could say losing it in a,

208
00:10:23,680 --> 00:10:28,320
you know, to no fault of Kazali.
They picked it up and Kazali

209
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,720
ended up being the ones, you
know, short a bit of change on

210
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:33,560
this one because they had to pay
all their legal fees and

211
00:10:33,560 --> 00:10:35,640
everything like that and they
didn't get any asset that didn't

212
00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,520
get any upside of this, even
though they were actually pretty

213
00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,720
cottoned on to the situation.
One for the money miners to dig

214
00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:42,960
into there.
Wicked history.

215
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,360
Wicked history What?
Why haven't we made this bet,

216
00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,720
JD?
Well, first and foremost to make

217
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,520
money obviously you've got to
say that one and there comes a

218
00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:55,040
lot of nuance after it, but they
do sort of speak to long term

219
00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,400
earnings in the iron ore
business.

220
00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:58,600
Like I mentioned, iron ore is
not a new thing.

221
00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,280
They've been involved for 50
plus years in the iron ore

222
00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:03,320
business.
But it is.

223
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,120
Over since the 60s, yeah.
Exactly.

224
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,080
Yeah, It is safe to say I reckon
that this is a bit of a

225
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,120
contrarian bet at this moment
in, in light of all the

226
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:16,120
negativity that we hear about
iron ore, the the sort of low

227
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:18,880
ish kind of consensus price
forecasts.

228
00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:23,160
It's it's kind of contrarian and
they do provide some rough

229
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,760
outlines of how much money they
think they'll earn.

230
00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,280
You can't work out, you know,
what the what the finer details

231
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:30,840
are.
But essentially they say at the

232
00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,040
40 million tonne per annum run
rate, they'll make a billion

233
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,880
dollars in operating cash flow.
You scale that up and it's a

234
00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,920
sort of linear relationship.
It goes to about $2.6 billion at

235
00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:43,800
100 million tonnes per annum.
That see equates to about Aussie

236
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,480
$25 a tonne of operation cash
flow.

237
00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,120
I mean, they're, they're buying
a mine which could feasibly be

238
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:55,760
producing for 100 years, like
your, your five year outlook, 10

239
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,200
year outlook.
I mean, you buy these things

240
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,400
because you the, the really
multi generational outlook,

241
00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,200
which the, which the Japanese
can think very long term like

242
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,720
that.
Even if the you know the the

243
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:11,480
glut between Chinese demand and
and and Indian demand is is XX

244
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:12,600
big, then you don't.
You don't.

245
00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:15,040
It's not really a giant factor
in your equation here.

246
00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,760
Yeah, 100%.
And then there's other points to

247
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,440
it of course as well like your
your off take.

248
00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,480
They're going to be able to get
at the the lower 40 million ton

249
00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,920
per annum rate about 16,000,000
tons.

250
00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:27,600
There's potential trading
earnings that I don't think calc

251
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:32,160
into the the earnings above that
they talk about in terms of

252
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:35,400
operational cash flow.
That is sort of why you're

253
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,680
betting on iron ore more more
broadly and getting into the

254
00:12:37,680 --> 00:12:39,720
asset.
But more specifically, like I

255
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,240
said that the synergies are
quite attractive.

256
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,240
The infrastructure that's
already been laid blending like

257
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,560
you touched on there, Maddie is
really interesting.

258
00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:51,680
In a world where there's less
and less higher grade iron ore

259
00:12:51,680 --> 00:12:54,800
product floating around, these
high quality projects become

260
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,600
more and more attractive.
And the the CEO who you touched

261
00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,120
on his comments before, Trev, he
does specifically call out other

262
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,480
minds suffering from great
declines and production

263
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,480
declines.
Then you've also got the the

264
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,800
deleterious element component
you touched on Austerus there.

265
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,040
This is the one that they hone
in on and I think that all that

266
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,120
all ties into it.
So they've they've done their

267
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:23,120
homework on on that side of it.
And yeah, in in the light of a

268
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,600
market that wants to
decarbonize, it becomes all the

269
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,640
more interesting.
The less work you have to do,

270
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,440
the higher grade it is, the less
energy that is to go into the

271
00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,760
process, which is fascinating.
And I want to flash up this

272
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,480
slide on the steel making
process that they put in their

273
00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,760
fourteen page deck that they,
they released.

274
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,880
They speak about the, the ratio
of electric arc furnaces to

275
00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:48,760
blast furnaces expanding from
here through to 2050.

276
00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:53,080
But you know, there's, there's
quite a bit of detail you need

277
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,840
to think about in this slide,
because right now the iron ore

278
00:13:55,840 --> 00:14:00,040
that goes into electric arc
furnaces is 65% plus product.

279
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,760
It's the iron ore that comes out
of iron ore of Canada, Rio's

280
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:08,000
assets up there.
What champion iron have it's,

281
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,560
you know, they're they're closer
to 67% product that they're

282
00:14:11,560 --> 00:14:16,200
producing and pretty, you know,
pretty clean, Pretty Little in

283
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:20,120
the in the way of impurities.
So the Mitsui to be calling out

284
00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:25,200
a 62% product project and
thinking that that day and time

285
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,320
can blend that into the electric
arc furnace route.

286
00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:30,000
He's actually banking on a fair
bit of tech advancement.

287
00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:34,120
You need you need a fair few
things to kind of go right for

288
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:38,320
that to kind of be applicable.
So I'm of course no, no expert

289
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,680
on on the steel making process,
but it is very, very interesting

290
00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,840
to me that they're they're
making this bet and I think

291
00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,280
you're doing it.
If you're putting 5 million a 5

292
00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,600
billion US on the table, you've
got some confidence that will

293
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,800
happen.
The 67% product that that is

294
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:55,960
produced globally, that's
largely beneficiated though,

295
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:57,800
right?
I.

296
00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,560
I would think so, but I'm yeah,
playing out of my comfort zone

297
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:02,120
there.
Yeah.

298
00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,480
Whereas this would be DSO
production blended with the

299
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,240
rest, yeah.
Yeah, Yeah.

300
00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,520
You, you tuned into that sort of
that transcript.

301
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:11,960
We read through that.
Transcript as well.

302
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:13,560
Yeah, I'll, I'll just read this
bit out here.

303
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,760
So here's another quote from the
CEO.

304
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,000
In WA, the rising phosphorus
content in ore is a particular

305
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:22,040
concern.
Some ore from existing mines

306
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,120
cannot be sold as Pilbara Bland
due to it's high phosphorus

307
00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:26,600
levels.
The abundant low phosphorus ore

308
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,160
of Roads Ridge enables the
effective utilization of high

309
00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,040
phosphorus ore from existing
mines, creating long term

310
00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:33,600
synergies for existing
operations.

311
00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:36,960
I mean, we've talked about the
rising quantities of like SP10

312
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,040
and then you've got declining
Hilbert blend, which we've seen

313
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:42,120
is a recent theme in Rio when
other miners like, but I, I

314
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,480
actually thought that was purely
a story that grade decline.

315
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,400
I didn't know until reading
reading this transcript that

316
00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,000
that phosphorus content was was
part of the equation.

317
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:52,400
Completely honest.
Yeah, I'll flash up a couple

318
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,720
slides now.
These come from various of those

319
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,400
investor seminars that Rio have
given over the years.

320
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,400
I want to say this one's from 23
or maybe from 22, but you, you

321
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,280
can sort of see there that Roads
Ridge isn't uniform.

322
00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:09,800
It's a massive project, but not
every deposit is exactly the

323
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:11,840
same parts of it, low
phosphorus.

324
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:16,080
They've got sort of
differentiated qualities across

325
00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,040
the various deposits.
So that'll play into sort of

326
00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:21,960
sequencing what they sort of
mined first and how they all

327
00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:23,720
blend it.
And then you can see this other

328
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,840
one, I showed it maybe half a
year or so ago.

329
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,880
I think it's really interesting.
It just lays out the various

330
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:32,120
products that they're making.
And you can kind of see like you

331
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,200
spoke about Maddie, some of some
of the products the, the Rogue

332
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,480
Valley Pro product that they've
got there.

333
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,720
And just right in the middle of
it, Pilbara, Pilbara blend that,

334
00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,680
that is their core product.
That's the the most liquid, the

335
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:47,840
most consistent product that's
going out.

336
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:51,840
I think it's sort of 10% of the
world's Seabourn iron ore trade,

337
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:53,840
so.
That's Pilbara blend finds, is

338
00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:54,680
it?
Yeah, that's right.

339
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:55,480
That's right.
Yeah.

340
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,440
So I think it's who wants it as
well.

341
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:01,400
So because I know alumina and
silica, Japanese steel mills

342
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,520
have a higher tolerance for that
than Chinese.

343
00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:09,400
So hence you've got Mitsui in
Roe Valley JV, which is like

344
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,319
very high alumina and silica and
a lot lower grade.

345
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,520
And then also, but as I said,
I'm not sure of this one.

346
00:17:15,599 --> 00:17:18,880
Yeah, that's another.
They're sort of the three big

347
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:20,680
impurities you hear talked
about.

348
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,760
Definitely.
That get balanced out much?

349
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:25,760
Who would have thought It's much
more than grade.

350
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,640
Always nuanced to it, mate.
Maddie, we should talk about the

351
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:33,240
the rise of Japan.
You've been a you've been a big

352
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,160
advocate of the rise of Korea
and Japan.

353
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:35,840
Don't.
Know but.

354
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,240
And yeah, with, with good
measure, we've seen them very

355
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,160
active across the, the mining
world, hoovering up assets,

356
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:48,120
whether they sort of be, you
know, off takes and minority

357
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:51,080
stakes or, or what have you.
They've just been very active

358
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,840
in, in recent times.
And there's, there's a lot of

359
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:59,120
history that that goes in to why
they behave the way they do.

360
00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:01,840
These are generally cash rich
companies.

361
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,720
And part of that sort of ties in
why investors haven't cared

362
00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,760
about some of these companies
for so long because they sit on

363
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:09,720
this pile of cash.
They don't, you know, if you

364
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,760
comp it with like AUS business
earn necessarily a high return

365
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,720
because it's just sitting in the
bank rates in Japan, you know

366
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,120
that they were negative for like
8 years or more.

367
00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:23,600
So that high savings rate really
puts them at odds with with the

368
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,120
rest of the world.
And it's, it's quite ingrained

369
00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:27,640
in the the way they've done
business.

370
00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,080
That's why a lot of the
businesses are many centuries

371
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,120
old.
And it also ties in with the the

372
00:18:32,120 --> 00:18:36,960
massive asset bubble that
bursted in the late 80s into the

373
00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:38,880
early 90s.
They want to build up that

374
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,480
defence.
But if you look at the the last

375
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,320
five years, you can see a lot of
big name value investors.

376
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,240
Obviously Warren Buffett and
Berkshire Hathaway first and

377
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,240
foremost have they've been
gobbling up a lot of these these

378
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,280
companies and there's been a bit
of change happening.

379
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,400
So Berkshire owns 9 odd percent
of Mitsui.

380
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,360
Same can be said for four other
conglomerates.

381
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:00,600
And they're going to just
increase over time.

382
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,760
They sort of spoke about that in
their annual report just

383
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,680
recently.
But these these corporate as

384
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,240
attitudes are changing a bit.
And I think that's a a bit of

385
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,880
the dynamic that, you know,
Berkshire Hathaway and others

386
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,000
are betting on that they're
going to put more of this money

387
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:16,760
into the ground.
They're going to set up more

388
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,280
Western style Capital Management
attitudes.

389
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,960
And part of this has actually
been spurred on by the Japanese

390
00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:24,800
government.
They have prompted and they've

391
00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,760
sort of pushed the companies to
set up these allocation

392
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,080
frameworks to actually be a bit
more active.

393
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,240
And I think therein lies the
opportunity.

394
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:34,680
You've also got the the
downstream industry.

395
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,720
Japan's one of the biggest
manufacturing countries in the

396
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:40,240
world, and they're one of the
least blessed natural resource

397
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,440
countries in the world as well.
So for decades they've had to

398
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,760
go.
They came to WA in the 80s and

399
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,040
scooped up, you know, gas deals
in the 60s, iron ore.

400
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,360
They went to the Middle East in
the 70s.

401
00:19:51,360 --> 00:19:54,280
They've been to Russia a long,
long time ago.

402
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:58,400
And just securing the rights to
energy and other natural

403
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,280
resources so that they don't
have to.

404
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,720
Rely on on sort of be swayed by
spot prices and be whacked

405
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,080
around so much and lock that in.
You think of Japan

406
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,600
geographically, it's just like
this very small island, which is

407
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,040
very like resource poor, but
tremendous manufacturing

408
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:14,080
capability.
Yeah.

409
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,560
So they've they've had to, you
know, have have a prosperous

410
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:21,280
economy in the long run without
a great, great source of energy

411
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,920
or, or materials.
They've really had to be, you

412
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,720
know, the long term thinking and
securing that.

413
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,120
Why they went so hard at, you
know, nuclear as well that they

414
00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:32,600
wanted to pull themselves and
wean themselves off that energy

415
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,000
reliance.
And it's, you know, even more

416
00:20:34,360 --> 00:20:36,320
hard when you've just got a
massive mountain range running

417
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,960
through the the the middle of
the country as well.

418
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,320
So.
There's there's another factor

419
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:41,920
there too, Jody.
And I think if you just think of

420
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,440
that cost of capital like
Mitsui's hurdle rate, the head

421
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,720
curve is like it's 10%, right?
Which mining company can compete

422
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,680
with that?
You can't.

423
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:56,720
So you can afford to like why
should we be surprised when the

424
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,880
Japanese trading houses are the,
you know, quite UN quote winners

425
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,560
of these auctions of minority
interests kind of globally?

426
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,280
No, because they have a lot of
lower cost of capital than any

427
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,520
of the miners.
And if you only need a 10%

428
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,040
hurdle, you can you can pay
upfront more than anyone else

429
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,800
can.
It's not quite China CCP cost of

430
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:13,960
capital, but it's pretty bloody
good.

431
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,600
Yeah.
God, Can you imagine if bloody?

432
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:19,640
You know, I think Tokyo is the
biggest metropolitan city in the

433
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,000
world.
Well, I saw us.

434
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,080
I've heard that it is just
freaking huge.

435
00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:25,200
Yeah, well, for the amount of
shit there, as you said, there's

436
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,960
no natural resources.
Could you imagine if there was?

437
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,360
Well, there's bug bugger all.
Very true mate.

438
00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:34,280
Not bloody blessed like saltbush
is the best bloody natural

439
00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,040
resource.
Friggin truck drivers in

440
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,720
Australia.
They could do a job.

441
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:41,280
But tease that links up seeing
the boys down at RIU.

442
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,720
Big bloody Brendan Jones wearing
a Kenworth hat.

443
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,400
Can you get any more trucking
mate?

444
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,200
They pulled up with a road train
out the front.

445
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,880
The only blokes to rock up in.
Not an Uber right there mate.

446
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:56,720
Get them hauling you dirt.
The Minder Mills specialist.

447
00:21:56,720 --> 00:22:00,680
Great to see the Giants crew,
the salt Bush lads, bloody and

448
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,520
and any other fucking job you
want on your mind site done that

449
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,320
you don't wanna do, Salt Bush
do.

450
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,400
It get it done, God.
Thank you very much.

451
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:09,320
Every source rich mate.
Go to Japan.

452
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,000
Oh buddy, Brendan Jones doesn't
mind the old bloody yellow tail

453
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,200
I heard at neighbor anyway,
right?

454
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:20,760
Oh, I know.
What about the what?

455
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,880
This is Mitsui Japan this site.
What about the broader I know

456
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,720
outlook?
Yeah, I thought it was worth all

457
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:27,320
the.
Sum up.

458
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,040
I thought it was worth a couple
quick comments, mate.

459
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,440
This is obviously the, the dirt
that keeps Australia going.

460
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,640
And it's, it's interesting
looking at our, our Aussie

461
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,640
budget and they factor in 60
bucks a ton a bit sort of

462
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,280
bearish, you know, but maybe
that conservatism is a bit

463
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,280
helpful.
But there is bearishness across

464
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,680
the market.
It's sort of anecdotally hear

465
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,680
it, people say, oh, we're, we're
around the corner, 75 bucks a

466
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,040
ton, all these sorts of things.
I'll flash up a few numbers from

467
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,240
consensus.
They're slightly different

468
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:55,680
dates.
Perhaps that's why the numbers

469
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,840
are slightly different, but
they're broadly in line with one

470
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,080
another.
We're talking about 100 ish

471
00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:03,760
dollars right now through 25
people sort of stepping that

472
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:10,000
down to about $80.00 come 2829.
And then 80 bucks going forward

473
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,840
in a, in a longer term view,
it's always interesting to, to

474
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,600
dig into the big Australian as
well, what BHB put out.

475
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,680
They, they do some interesting
research on this one.

476
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,880
We've touched on in the past
that sort of 80 to $100 price

477
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,360
support level.
They're pretty vocal about it.

478
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,960
I think last year was actually
a, a fairly strong demonstration

479
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,760
of that, particularly around
that $90.00 level.

480
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,720
There's a lot of support and
they really highlight three

481
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:36,000
differentiated envelopes of
supply as they call it.

482
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,680
You've got your high cost
juniors there in Australia,

483
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,000
Brazil, other parts of the
world.

484
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:45,000
You've got the shoulder of
Chinese domestic mine cost curve

485
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,080
there.
And then you've got lower grade

486
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,080
Indian exports.
Cumulatively, we're talking

487
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,240
about 170 million tons of
supplies there.

488
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,720
Most of that comes in over 90
bucks.

489
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,120
A smaller pocket of that is
between that 80 and $90.00

490
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,440
range.
So they just believe if you, if

491
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:08,040
you get into that $90.00 range,
$80.00 range rather or if you're

492
00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,720
going to see the price fall
through it, you need one or two

493
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,600
things to happen or maybe both.
You need a decline in demand or

494
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,600
you need a supply boost to the
tune of 170 million tons.

495
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,000
So pretty interesting for what
it's worth.

496
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,560
And then of course you've got
Mitsui.

497
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,360
They're not explicit in the
assumptions that they put

498
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:27,560
forward.
They talk about a, a base case.

499
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,120
You can back out that 25 Aussie
dollars a ton operating cash

500
00:24:31,120 --> 00:24:34,040
flow they're talking about and
maybe you can sort of model in a

501
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:39,840
W Angeles type cost given the
the proximity they've got CapEx

502
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,280
a bit of an open-ended question
if you're trying to back out a

503
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,240
bit of a model on on this thing
given all the infrastructure.

504
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,400
I'm sure some people have sort
of done it, but they talk about

505
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,120
it exceeding their hurdle rate.
Have you mentioned 10%?

506
00:24:52,120 --> 00:24:55,640
So yeah, there's there's lots of
things kind of tying into it,

507
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,320
but you're going to put 5 plus
billion US into the ground.

508
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,080
I think you've got a pretty
supportive or bullish long term

509
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:07,720
outlook on on iron ore and
specifically that sort of 62%

510
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,240
what you're buying into this
example.

511
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,840
What's everything going to be
made out of in 300 years time?

512
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:17,160
Far out they bloody There is so
much of this getting ripped out

513
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,640
of the ground.
Try 100 years.

514
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,400
I kind of, I can't even imagine
how how, how different things

515
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:24,040
would sort of be.
Oh.

516
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,280
Carbon fibre or some shit.
There's there's no substitute

517
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,720
for steel yet and except for
steel.

518
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,240
So recycling's like, you know,
the the thing people try and

519
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,400
model accurately and it's not a
huge part of the market yet, but

520
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,600
in time is expected to be a
meaningful contributor.

521
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,400
One of the things we've learnt
though, forecasting commodity

522
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:46,720
prices is it's always so hard.
It's, you know, we, we have a

523
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,600
stab at it that it's, it's
tough.

524
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,560
So you just got to really work
with work with the the cost

525
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,960
curve if you're, if you're a
producer, if you're an investor.

526
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,240
Should we should we chat about
any sort of similar deals?

527
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,520
We've seen a bunch of these
ones, but it's kind of

528
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,400
interesting to look forward and
think what what are the stakes

529
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,600
they might might scoop up or
just other, other thoughts on

530
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:11,600
deal making in this type of, you
know, framework or model I had.

531
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,760
AI had a good thing about iron
iron ore deals.

532
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,440
But you know while we're talking
about Missouri minority interest

533
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:21,200
I do think they're going to
emerge is the the is the word

534
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,560
victor in quotation marks
because there's no winter river

535
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,960
sail process really but of the
the minority interest in in

536
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,840
first quantums mines in Zambia.
But yeah, I don't I don't

537
00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:35,000
necessarily know about similar
deals in in iron ore, but I

538
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,280
think we should be watching
closely what's happening with

539
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,120
some of the very large iron ore
deposits in Africa specifically.

540
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,000
I was still talking Rio Tinto.
They, they are of course JV

541
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,920
partners in Simon do with
Chinelco, but but they only have

542
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,520
an entitlement to blocks three
and four there.

543
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,720
Now Simon do consists of blocks
one and two and then there's

544
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,880
three and four with blocks 1 and
2.

545
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,680
They, they ultimately went to a
different bidding consortium,

546
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:03,160
90% of that consortium is sorry,
85% of that consortium is

547
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,600
represented by Singapore winning
consortium, Waco Aluminium and

548
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,000
Guinea Guinea logistics firm and
the other 15% of the Guinea

549
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,200
government.
Now, if you, if you look around

550
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,200
further, there are quite a few
other large scale iron ore

551
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,520
deposits in the, in the
continent.

552
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,000
They're in Africa.
They've typically been plagued

553
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,800
by logistics like a, a lack of
rail, you know, even shipping to

554
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,160
China from the, from the wrong
side of the country in a lot of

555
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,320
cases.
Think of Mauritania, like Jada,

556
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,600
you've talked about in depth
before with, with LIUS or

557
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,280
Fortescue, Skiborn or or even
Zenaga in the Congo.

558
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,600
Like would I be surprised to see
one or two of these reach FID in

559
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,120
the next 5 years?
Like I, I probably wouldn't to

560
00:27:41,120 --> 00:27:44,800
be completely honest.
And in many cases, strategic

561
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,120
partners are going to play a
vital role in in their ultimate

562
00:27:47,120 --> 00:27:49,600
development, be that a a
Japanese trading house or a

563
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,760
sovereign wealth fund.
Yeah, definitely right.

564
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,200
An interesting one to to to
watch out for those.

565
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,440
Those minority stakes are always
good for it.

566
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,360
Right, let's roll it into the
diamond market.

567
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,920
De Beers.
Yeah, I.

568
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,520
Just got on the got on De Beers
last week.

569
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:11,480
I I think there's a lesson we
can all learn from the tribal

570
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:13,440
diamond market at the moment.
I've been reflecting a lot on

571
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,160
the state of the, the diamond
market and on on Friday last

572
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,080
week, Anglo American reported
its results.

573
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,080
They, they wrote down the value
of the beers on its books by

574
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:25,360
another $2.9 billion US that
that follows a write down of of

575
00:28:25,360 --> 00:28:29,360
1.6 billion the year before.
So now the carrying value of De

576
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:34,560
Beers is about 4.7 billion U.S.
dollars. 4.1 of that pertains to

577
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,160
the what they call the natural
diamonds CGU and 600 million of

578
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,600
that ties to the other category
which is element 6 light box and

579
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,840
De Beers jewellery.
Why this is interesting to me is

580
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,600
of course Anglo's commitment to
ultimately divest De Beers.

581
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,960
This was part of its its
strategy in the aftermath of BH

582
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,200
PS unsolicited approach to
acquire Anglo American.

583
00:28:55,760 --> 00:29:00,000
But what kind of complicated
things further is the fact that

584
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,960
De Beers is reported to have the
largest stockpile of diamonds

585
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,560
since 2008.
There's an inventory that was

586
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:10,920
reported to be valued at $2
billion late last year of

587
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,360
diamonds that De Beers have have
stockpiled now.

588
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:18,920
So Anglo has the entire De Beers
carrying value at 4.7 billion,

589
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,360
but De Beers itself has a
stockpile of two $2 billion

590
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,400
worth of diamonds.
Are they?

591
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,280
So do they value them just to at
the cost of mind or do they go

592
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,520
into detail?
I I couldn't, I couldn't, I

593
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:30,920
couldn't figure that one out,
JA.

594
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,680
But you know, in reality, could
you monetize that without nuking

595
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,840
the entire market?
No, Yeah.

596
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:41,680
But Burgundy does the same in in
Australia and they they show the

597
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,200
cash position and cash position
plus the inventory.

598
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,760
Yeah, and like I but seems a bit
too good to be true.

599
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:51,160
The the, the, you know, reality
of, of a lot of commodities is

600
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,480
that you stockpile because,
yeah, because, because you're

601
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,160
not getting a price that's
appropriate.

602
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,240
And so you stockpile it.
And then in reality, if you

603
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,400
would actually sell what you've
stockpiled, the price would

604
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,040
would collapse.
You see that that in a lot of

605
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,200
different markets.
Yeah, we, we just came back from

606
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,000
Africa.
We even visited a historic

607
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,240
diamond mined Cullinan.
And Cullinan is actually owned

608
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,440
by London listed Petra Diamonds.
The operation is, is it's

609
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,920
genuinely something to to
behold.

610
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,280
I don't know what you, you
thought of the, the place there,

611
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,760
JD.
And it was, it was fantastic.

612
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:26,280
120 year old mine a a hole in
the ground that's sort of one

613
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:30,600
kilometre by 500 by 400 metres.
It's pretty spectacular in the

614
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,080
yeah, the the history of the,
the diamonds that have come out

615
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:38,040
of that one.
Talking about royalty jewellery

616
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,440
from the the, the royal family
in England to Thailand to every

617
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,440
other corner of the world.
It's pretty, pretty crazy.

618
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,440
World's largest diamond, rough
diamond ever was found found

619
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,880
there.
Yeah, it's just enormous, kind

620
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,920
of not enormous, but it's like a
big block cave.

621
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,160
It's quite cool to even get a
block cave.

622
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,440
Mine, I thought.
And, and so we were there and we

623
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,440
were kind of like, jeez, the
scale of this is pretty, pretty

624
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:58,840
interesting.
Like they produce a fair bit,

625
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,480
yada yada.
And, and we're Googling and it's

626
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,320
like this company has a market
cap of a mere 50,000,000 lbs.

627
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,360
What's going on here?
Which didn't make much sense

628
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,440
until you realise the company's
also harbouring US $215 million

629
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,440
of net debt.
So they're in, they're in

630
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,640
trouble and they clearly aren't
the only ones in the industry.

631
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,160
They're in in trouble close to
home.

632
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:22,200
You mentioned Burgundy JD, they
recently acquired the Arcadi

633
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,320
diamond mine not all that long
ago.

634
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,600
And it's, it's actually been a
really tempting stock based on

635
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,760
the track record of the
management team there.

636
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,080
And you know, you can, you can
back out and EBITDA multiple

637
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,040
that the screen's pretty low.
But they too have worn the brunt

638
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,440
of the the market decline.
And while they're the balance

639
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,280
sheet is genuinely delivered
over the last 18 months, you

640
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,120
know, they've had the asset,
their share price has fallen

641
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:45,800
even faster than the delivering
of the balance sheet.

642
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,040
So if you compare the net debt
to the market cap, you still

643
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:52,280
like, oh jeez, it's, yeah, it's,
it's not, not, not a sexy

644
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,000
equation.
But bringing it back to DB is

645
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:59,360
right, the $4.7 billion asset
value that that Anglo now

646
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,680
attributes, it's based on some
assumptions that might even be

647
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,200
pretty optimistic in the, in the
eyes of commodity market

648
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,120
analysts.
Like primarily you can see in

649
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,080
the disclosure, it's based on
the bifurcation between lab

650
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,280
grown and natural diamonds and a
consumer shift towards brand and

651
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:19,360
jewellery to reflect this.
So you know, whether or not you,

652
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,400
you think that'll happen or not
is I think it's still ambiguous.

653
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:23,720
Like the timeline for it all
happened.

654
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,720
There is evidence of bifurcating
price, but the relative sizes

655
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,200
and and and demand profiles of
both of those markets, I think

656
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,280
is, is very, very out there in
the open.

657
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,600
Yeah, it's it's a fascinating
one.

658
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,320
What what do you think actually
happens in in the long run?

659
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Anglo obviously on the record to
spin it out amongst all the

660
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,920
other businesses they want to
want to spin out.

661
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,240
And, well, not spin it out.
They're on the record to to sell

662
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:45,600
it.
Yeah.

663
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,480
But I, I do actually think that
spinning it out might be their

664
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,120
only like option where they get
an appropriate value.

665
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,400
Like, I don't, I don't know what
it's worth.

666
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,000
It's a business with tremendous
history.

667
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,720
Once Upon a time, like the beers
was the best business in the

668
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,240
entire mining industry anywhere
in the world to own.

669
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,720
Like the the company had a
little stranglehold on diamond

670
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:09,000
production, a monopoly that so
rarely exists amongst commodity

671
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,520
producers because of
geographical fragmentation of

672
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,320
deposits.
Yet the beers literally had a,

673
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,400
you know, a monopoly.
But today the the natural

674
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:20,000
diamond market is, is far more
fragmented lab grown diamond

675
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,080
market is flooding supply with
cheaper rocks that are

676
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,120
physically indistinguishable
from from mined diamonds.

677
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,000
The demand outlook for mined
rocks is, is uncertain.

678
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,160
Like I talked about, if if I was
forced to place my bets, I think

679
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,360
the business could sell 2 1/2
billion.

680
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,120
That's that's like genuinely
just a thumbs, I guess roughly

681
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,720
the value of the inventory plus
a little bit.

682
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,480
That's that's probably not a
palatable scenario for Anglo,

683
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,000
which is why I think a, a spin
out could be a, a, you know, a

684
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,400
more realistic alternative for
for them instead of a trade

685
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:50,880
sale.
But you know, like I talked

686
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,800
about, I think there's a bigger
lesson here for all commodity

687
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:56,520
markets.
And you know where I'm going

688
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:59,600
with this, don't you?
Don't let me stop you mate, keep

689
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,800
keep it going.
I, I think, I think something

690
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,120
has happened to this market that
we see happen in a lot of

691
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:08,679
commodity markets over the
course of history.

692
00:34:08,679 --> 00:34:11,000
When you zoom out long enough
and when it happens, it usually

693
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,679
creates unexpected disasters for
the incumbent producers.

694
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,159
I'm talking about when new
technology unlocks the ability

695
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,000
to supply new production to the
market at a price point that is

696
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,440
lower than most of the existing
cost curve.

697
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,320
In this case it's the
manufacturing of of lab grown

698
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:30,000
diamonds, which typically cost
80 to 95% less than the cost to

699
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:33,920
produce a mined natural diamond.
That's new scalable supply

700
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,639
coming in at the very front of
the cost curve, but it's not the

701
00:34:36,639 --> 00:34:40,159
only example that exists, right.
There's a bunch of others over

702
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:42,679
over the course of history.
And this is not not an

703
00:34:42,679 --> 00:34:45,080
exhaustive list, but think of
the development of fracking

704
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,719
unlock shale gas and what that
did the massive improvements in

705
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,159
H power technology to process
nickel ladderites in Indonesia

706
00:34:51,159 --> 00:34:53,080
and what that did to the to
nickel miners.

707
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,639
The the, you know, the
technological advancement of in

708
00:34:56,639 --> 00:35:00,600
situ recovery in the uranium
market and, and, and what that

709
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,120
you know, that was the technique
that was ramped substantially by

710
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,160
the Kazakhs, the introduction
of, of solvent extraction,

711
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,240
Electro winning technology in
the 70s, which which made near

712
00:35:09,240 --> 00:35:14,200
surface oxide copper economic to
extract and effectively kept

713
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,480
kind of copper price around
$0.60 for a pound for like over

714
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,880
20 years.
Gold itself has had many waves

715
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:24,640
of this with hydraulic mining in
like the 1870s, heat bleaching

716
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,560
allowed profitable extraction of
low grade ores.

717
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,480
But it's not always the case
that the new technology unlocks

718
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,680
production that's at the front
end of the cost curve.

719
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:35,400
Sometimes it's at the back of
the cost curve too, but it can

720
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,280
still be economic.
You know, even in gold you've

721
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,680
got pox or Biox, I mean iron
ore, magnetic separation.

722
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,320
I, I think these technological
unlocks are super important to

723
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:49,120
keep an eye on because they
bring with them new supply that

724
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,560
previously wasn't factored in
and can really jeopardize the

725
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:56,400
ball case of a commodity.
In some cases, the technology

726
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,280
even displaces the incumbent
market leaders.

727
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,120
And to bring it back to today,
like there's a few technologies

728
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,280
for some commodities people are,
you know, most passionate about

729
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,840
which loom over their relative
sectors as potentially fitting

730
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:12,680
the bill here.
And to the best of my knowledge,

731
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,120
all of these technologies are
still unproven or or uneconomic

732
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,040
at the moment.
But think of DLE and lithium, we

733
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,520
talk about a lot.
Think tailings leaching

734
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,360
technology for copper.
Think deep sea mining for, you

735
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,840
know, uranium or whatever
commodity you want that people

736
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,400
talk about deep sea mining
potential for.

737
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:32,920
I I think that the lesson in
history is to pay extremely

738
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,680
close attention to when
technology advancements unlock

739
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:40,240
new supply and respond
incredibly swiftly when you see

740
00:36:40,240 --> 00:36:42,280
it happening.
Like you can't wait.

741
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,880
You know, could could Anglo also
De Beers when the first lab

742
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,600
grown diamonds were ever made
and and, and sold it for a

743
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,360
handsome amount.
They probably could.

744
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,360
But yeah, if you sit on these
things and yeah, you'll be left

745
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:54,720
holding the bag.
Yeah.

746
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,800
Imagine Imagine if thorium
reactors become a thing that

747
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,160
fucks the whole uranium thing.
Thomas, Jan I.

748
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,160
Was going to say, I know a bull
to to speak to on that one.

749
00:37:05,240 --> 00:37:07,360
It's, it's bang on.
It's, it's so right.

750
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,920
And I was actually listening to
a podcast with with Ray Dalio

751
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,360
recently and he speaks about it
in the context of inflation and

752
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,320
how you hedge yourself against
inflation.

753
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,840
Everyone sort of points to
commodities, real assets and all

754
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,000
that sort of stuff, but you
don't hold the commodities for

755
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:26,800
the long term because the
efficiency gains at the end of

756
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:30,280
the day, that is what this tech
advancements sort of culminate

757
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:34,680
in, means that in the long run
you get worn into it and you

758
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,720
don't outperform inflation or
things like this because what

759
00:37:38,720 --> 00:37:42,160
we've managed to do is as a sort
of society is.

760
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,040
Like on economic deposits,
economic technology, yeah.

761
00:37:45,240 --> 00:37:47,440
Exactly so.
Pretty nice H pal pretty much

762
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,360
fucked IGR.
They wouldn't have bought

763
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:53,080
western areas and they wouldn't
have sunk all the money into

764
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,160
Cosmos.
And the scale of and the scale

765
00:37:56,160 --> 00:37:58,960
and speed of that nickel one,
like I know we've spoken about

766
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:02,240
it, but it's, it's pretty
jaw-dropping, especially when

767
00:38:02,240 --> 00:38:06,000
you think about it's, it's
gotten so severe that even some

768
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,480
of the, the companies doing it
in Indonesia are having to turn

769
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:11,920
off production because they're,
they're they're killing

770
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,080
themselves.
You know it's I.

771
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,920
Think that was that nickel
Industries, wasn't it, that they

772
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:19,280
were reporting about.
I saw PT gun Buster.

773
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:23,280
I just saw last week lowest
margins, yeah, but it's like a

774
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:26,440
function of you're the only ones
really doing it.

775
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,880
It's crazy.
And what it does to the shape of

776
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,320
the cost curve, all these sorts
of things, it's fascinating to

777
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:36,120
think through them.
Yeah, an awesome point.

778
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:43,640
Very good, very good good date
dive that MMS the new anal

779
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,880
bloody Pilgrim mining contractor
possibly.

780
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,600
Go to name.
Project owner up there, who

781
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:49,720
knows?
Get that mistake.

782
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,320
Follow the bloody Join us link
in the show Nuts.

783
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,240
Give them a bloody bell, The
Grounded Group, the Sambic

784
00:38:55,240 --> 00:38:59,760
Ground Support Group, CRE
Insurance, K Drew I had some had

785
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,840
a few beers with Trooper last
week, got a big cuddle off the

786
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,600
big fella.
Sulphus Contracting, Swig,

787
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:09,360
Quattro, Project Engineering,
Cross Boundary Energy and they

788
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,080
are our partners.
We want to thank so didn't say

789
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:13,800
it start.
Look in the show notes for

790
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:17,560
tickets to Aussie Man OHH 200.
100 bucks off. 100 bucks off you

791
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,280
buy.
Two tickets you get 200 bucks

792
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,440
off.
And you get to see Maddie.

793
00:39:20,720 --> 00:39:23,000
Yes.
How was that Odoro.

794
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:26,960
Odoro information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

795
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,160
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

796
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,760
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

797
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,800
person.
Before making any investment

798
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,840
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

799
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,000
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

800
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,200
financial situation and needs.