Turning around Junior Mining (John Forwood & Hedley Widdup)

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Rhino money miners, welcome to
another bloody beautiful JD.

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Only chat this one with Johnny
Floyd and Headley wid up.

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Did they mention Axis mining
technology by any chance, JD?

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I could see it on the tip of
their tongue, but we were

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talking about so many other
things.

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It actually didn't get mentioned
mate, but they were eager to.

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There's a lot of parallels
between John and Headley.

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Like trustworthy blokes, like
axis of the trusted name in

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gyros and any orientation
instrumentation, anything to do

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with making sure you know where
the freaking drill Isle is.

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Very true.
All I need to say.

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Free trial on offer if you drop
the name money of mine.

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What a deal JD.
Loved your chat with Johnny and

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Headers.
Bloody absolute.

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Two GCS and I actually like it
how Headers took over.

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Overrated and underrated at the
end and banged it.

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Banged it back on you.
He he took charge mate.

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We could have we could have
spoken for a couple hours there,

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but too bad John, John had to
duck off.

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So I made him a bit late for his
meeting.

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But Hedley was, he was scheming
and he had a, he had a few more

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in his locker, but it's good to
have the tables turned and had a

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few questions flipped on myself.
Yeah, both.

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Both former guests to the show,
both resources fund managers.

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Yeah, both.
Both geologists, aren't they JD

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and so?
Yeah, yeah.

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So a lot of real junior focus.
Awesome.

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I can't wait to hear it.
I haven't heard it yet, but I'm

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looking forward to it.
Mate, anyone that's interested

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in the bloody small cap
developer space, these two guys

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are all over it.
Lion Selection Group and Lowell

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Resource Fund.
So let's rip in I.

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Let's do it.
All right, money miners.

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We've got a special show today
with me.

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I've got Hedley Whitup, the CEO
of Lion Selection Group, and

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John Ford, the CIO of Lowell
Resources Fund.

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Thanks guys for joining me.
Pleasure to be here.

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Thanks for coming into the
office too, JD.

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No, not a problem at all.
We last spoke individually about

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10 months ago.
I think it was.

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I think it was actually in the
same week that I spoke with with

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each of you.
And since then heaps has

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happened.
So at the M&A side of things, we

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saw Azure one close to your
heart, John get taken out.

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BHB pursued Anglo for a while on
the commodities front, copper

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rant over. 5 bucks, something I
didn't think we see for a little

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while.
And then on the other end of the

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spectrum, lithium peeled write
off.

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So we've got plenty to talk
about, but I want to start this

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conversation talking about the
predictions you guys made for

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2024.
We're in trouble.

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So.
It's been like parent teacher

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interviews.
We had both of you on for a

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brief stint talking about non
consensus picks, high conviction

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picks and the like in December
of last year and now we're going

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to do a bit of grading right
now.

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So to start with, Headley, you
picked gold to perform well

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against a backdrop of performing
commodities.

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And John, you picked platinum to
do quite well.

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So I just want to check in your
confidence.

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We're only halfway there.
But Hedley, how are you feeling

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about this one?
Well, I, I think I'd have to say

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so far so good.
I wasn't wishing for a lot of

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commodities to weaken, but it
seemed certainly that the

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environment was good for gold.
And coming to the end of last

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year, I don't think we really
sort of broke it down in the

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podcast other than to say
what's, you know, what's up and

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what's not.
Gold had a bit of buying support

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from an unusual area being
China.

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So I was really curious to see
how that would play out.

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So far, it's added some
robustness.

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Gold's a great place to be from
that perspective.

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And I think a lot of other
commodities have weakened, maybe

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not quite to the extent that I
might have expected, but you

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know, enough to be close enough
to being right if I'm self

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grading.
But like you say, it's not the

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end of the year yet, so we might
count those chickens.

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That's it.
The Fat Lady hasn't sung and

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John Platinum PGMS more broadly,
we're seeing, you know, CapEx

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getting turned off, pushed down
the line, mind shouting, shafts

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shouting.
How you feeling about that one?

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Yeah, I think I'm still, you
know, platinum and PGMS have

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done modestly, OK, and I'm still
quite positive about them.

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There's still a deficit for both
platinum and Palladium.

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And, you know, South Africa
being a big, you know, producer

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of those, those medals, They've
just been through like a lot of

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the world.
They've just been through a

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election cycle and, you know,
come out the other side of that.

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We're probably going to see
Anglo disaggregate and and

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Platts will be, you know, have
its own life, you know, own

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life.
But a lot of those shafts are

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probably being or have been kept
operating, you know, and and

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they're probably not economic to
be to do so.

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So I think post the election
there's possibly some shafts

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that are going to going to shut
and that will restrict supply

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even further.
And on the demand side, I

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thought 2024 was, you know,
going to be a year of

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competition between the electric
vehicles and the ICS.

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And the winner at the moment is
the the hybrids.

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And the hybrids you know,
obviously still need auto

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catalytic converters and they
use PGM.

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So I think the demand side for
for PGMS is is probably bit

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looking better than it was, you
know, 612 months ago.

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Yeah, the the course looking
quite pressing.

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I noticed the second quarter had
the largest inflows into

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physical physically backed
Palladium and platinum trusts

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that had seen in in a long time
listed on the NYSE.

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Now lithium is another one and
you guys actually went somewhat

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head to head on this one.
So John, you called for a

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rebound in lithium.
Headley, you spoke to a bit of a

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reckoning with the lithium
stocks.

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So coming at it from slightly
different angles and it's been

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sort of mixed messages.
We saw quite a low through

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January.
I think 850 bucks was one of the

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prices I'd seen in January for
spodumene coming out of WA.

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And then we saw a bit of a
recovery through the 1200 ish as

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as clear as you can sort of get
with the lithium price and now

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the last month has been pretty
hard.

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So Headley, how are you saying
the the sort of sting and the

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retail kind of mania, if you
will come out of lithium?

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Well is strongly guided by, you
know when the price is going up

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and it's going up rampantly and
then maintaining levels that

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provide extreme profitability
for producers, which is the

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conditions that we saw in
lithium in 2021.

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Equities follow strongly and
and, you know, someone close to

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me is very fond of saying the
market will pay far more for

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something that it doesn't
understand than something that

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it does.
So, you know, it's a perfect

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scenario for equities to to
overshoot to the upside.

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And, you know, you saw large
numbers being paid for

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exploration plays, some of them
better than others.

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And, you know, I suppose that
that implies that some of them

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were much worse than others.
So I think the, you know, the

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reckoning from an investor's
perspective and liquidity

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falling out of lithium space
looks like it's played out it as

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I would have expected.
And, and without sort of having

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a, an understanding of where
lithium would settle and what

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that would mean for
profitability and things like

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that.
Just just having fallen.

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I think that requires a a fair
period of time for the market to

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build up the confidence again
for risk investors to say time

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to pile into to lithium stocks,
particularly if you're going

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let's go beyond the producers
and look for somewhere where

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you've got real equity price
leverage.

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Like like explorers, we're
seeing a lot of them all but

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abandoned.
And I think the the level of

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shorts are still pretty high on
the lithium producers.

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So you know, across the market
even I would say that you know

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the the so called sophisticated
investors or at least the weight

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of money looks to be betting
against lithium in the shortish

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term.
And John, how are you sort of

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seeing it?
Yeah.

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Look, you know, the equities
have been absolutely smashed and

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yes, you know, some of those
explorers are probably down to,

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you know, 10% of what they what
they peaked at, I think.

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Yeah, you know, it is still a
very small market and there is

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obviously an oversupply there at
the moment in a question mark

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about, you know, the the highest
part of the cost curve in terms

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of say Chinese lipid lights.
Are they still producing

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Possibly they are, you know,
when is that supply going to you

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know, come out of the market?
But it will at some point at

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these these levels I think.
So, you know, I think, you know,

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in the midterm, I'm still
optimistic about about lithium.

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And you are, you know, a little
bit similar to nickel that OK,

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that the equity markets have
completely abandoned the sector

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largely, but you're still seeing
industry players.

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I think this morning we even saw
Lion Town announce a small

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offtake, you know, with one of
the, you know, consumers.

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Yeah.
So you're still seeing, you

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know, industry players wanting
to get hold of lithium.

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So I think that's quite a, you
know, that's a positive sign

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even.
So yeah, I think there's some

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pretty interesting opportunities
in lithium, but not in the, not

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in the short term.
So to, to zoom out and look at

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the, the junior market more
broadly, your highest conviction

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pick was for inflation to
moderate.

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Now obviously that has a a huge
flow on effect on to the risk

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capital.
Are you in the the bucket of

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people saying interest rates
will come off this year or early

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next year?
Look, I think you know, it's,

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it's a week to week proposition
and you know, sentiments, you

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know, flips and flops.
And this week I think you know,

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it probably is.
You know, people are saying, you

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know, inflation is moderating
with data out of the US last

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week.
So yeah, you know, if if I had

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to place a bet, I would say, you
know, there's going to be some

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moderating interest rates this
year.

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And as you say, that's that's
really positive for the junior

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end of the resources sector.
And Headley, how do you sort of

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think obviously you're paying
very much in that risk end of

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town as well.
Were you sort of seeing

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obviously we can, we can get
into liquidity and the mining

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clock in a in a moment.
But more broadly, what's your

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sort of thoughts on the the
temperature around the junior

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end of the market?
Well, I think my, I can't

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remember if it was my high
conviction call or my anti

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consensus call or whatever it
was.

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I think what I was most
convinced of was that 2024 was

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going to be a year where
sentiment for juniors didn't

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recover all that well.
So I, I think, you know, reading

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it as it goes for now and we've
still got another five or six

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months to, to play out before
the end of the year.

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But that expectation seems to
have, you know, played true so

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far.
So, you know, and it, this is a

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corollary of exactly what John
said.

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Whilst interest rates are high
or or higher than people are

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happy to stomach and when, when
they can get a, a, a good equity

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return off of large cap stocks
and an ideal return off of cash

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in the bank.
They don't need to be taking

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risks on explorers and they
don't.

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So you know, the amount of
liquidity which is available for

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the junior space is still very
low.

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Having said that, I think the
conditions that we experienced

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in sort of January, February,
March have, you know, probably

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solidified somewhat whether that
means we've been right through

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the bottom and we're now facing
the earliest parts of a

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recovery.
It's, it's always difficult to

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read that, but I think that, you
know, is liquidity high or low?

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It's, it's low.
And so, you know, I'm, I'm

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pretty comfortable with that
forecast for now.

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So John, when we sort of traded
emails before, one of the points

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you put forward was what turns
the junior end of the market

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around.
So the sort of start, I want to

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just pose a question to you what
what does turn it around?

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Is it just rate dependent or
does something else need to be

226
00:11:34,680 --> 00:11:37,960
the catalyst to get more capital
and liquidity into the junior

227
00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,160
end of town?
Look, I think, you know, we've

228
00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,720
talked on, on interest rates and
that's, that's a massive 1.

229
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:45,800
It's interesting to see, you
know, where Bitcoin, you know,

230
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,000
in terms of where speculative
money goes and what, what

231
00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,600
Bitcoins been doing and Bitcoins
been on a real downer over the

232
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,360
last few months, but it's sort
of ticked up a bit more

233
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,280
recently.
So that's that's a really

234
00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:02,640
important, important one.
I think M&A and you know, driven

235
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:08,680
by things like, you know, the,
the gold WA gold miners, you

236
00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:12,120
know, stashing away nice lots of
cash and then looking to do M&A.

237
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:16,120
And you know, we can see you
know, Remelius that putting his

238
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:21,120
foot on Spartan etcetera.
So that that will, you know,

239
00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:27,360
that that sort of gets a head of
steam, then you'll see people,

240
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,480
you know, perhaps speculating on
who's going to be next is going

241
00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,880
to be the next, next target.
Particularly I think, you know,

242
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:35,760
there's a, there's a whole, you
know, and it's not a small part,

243
00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,280
it's a, it's a sub sector, but
it's a big part of the sector in

244
00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:44,800
terms of WA yeast and gold
fields miners and you know, guys

245
00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:47,360
sitting on on, you know,
attractive resources, which

246
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,680
might not be big enough or, or
might not be financiable as a

247
00:12:50,680 --> 00:12:53,040
standalone.
So there's a lot of that going

248
00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:58,520
on and that if that sort of, you
know, keeps keeps growing, then

249
00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,480
you'll you'll see that move out
into the sector, I think.

250
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,240
Yeah.
So you know that that's probably

251
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,360
the main, main two things.
And then probably, you know,

252
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,400
which complete speculation, you
know, what's the next hot, hot

253
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:12,440
commodity?
Is it is it, you know, what's

254
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:16,120
the next niobium?
You know, that's the things just

255
00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:17,920
touching on what you know,
things that people don't

256
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,800
understand, but.
What's the new gold?

257
00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,320
I think gold's the new gold at
the moment.

258
00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:26,440
Yeah, we'll, we'll see.
So I mean, do you show a chart

259
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,680
in, in one of your recent
presentations Headley and you're

260
00:13:28,680 --> 00:13:30,400
talking about liquidity like you
just said.

261
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,640
And I think you show the number
of IP OS and and raisings and

262
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:38,840
you can see the trend broadly
from 2021 is not in the right

263
00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:43,200
direction from the probably from
our perspective is, is that what

264
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:45,600
you're saying the the trend?
And do you anticipate that trend

265
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,560
to continue downward, less IP
OS, less capital raisings for

266
00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:52,440
the foreseeable?
When liquidity falls, it tends

267
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,400
to sort of reach a low level and
then it, it might not stop, but

268
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,680
it just kind of ticks along.
So I, I, I'm not sure that you

269
00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:01,800
could drop too many more IPOs
out of the market.

270
00:14:02,560 --> 00:14:05,960
If you go from a level of say
120 a year, which I think was

271
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:11,040
circa the amount in 2021, you
know, coming into 2024, how

272
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,960
many, if there was 10 or 15, you
could probably achieve 10 or 15

273
00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,680
IPOs by people who've been
preparing were desperate to list

274
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,360
and you know, just had dragged
friends, family, etcetera along

275
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,680
to, to stump them up with one
large issue investor, they would

276
00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:27,240
probably be able to achieve a
listing.

277
00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,280
So you in today's market, you
still tend to be able to get

278
00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,200
that done.
And that's probably the, the

279
00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,240
marker of, you know, the lowest
that liquidity could go without

280
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,200
turning it off all come all all
together.

281
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,200
So I, I couldn't say that you'd,
you'd have to expect a real

282
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,240
deterioration from here on
liquidity for juniors.

283
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,720
I think capital raising
conditions now are, you know,

284
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,320
oscillating between the worst
they can get and, and, and a

285
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,320
moderate a small improvement on
that.

286
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,080
So, you know, were it to get any
worse, I think probably where

287
00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,160
you would see that play out
would be in the share prices of

288
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:02,280
some of the major companies
because they're, they're far

289
00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,120
more closely tied to broader
commodity prices as their their

290
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,920
price driver.
So, you know, to, to your

291
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,280
question earlier of John around
what would you say would turn

292
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,280
the the cycle?
I think a strong lead from

293
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,880
commodities in One Direction or
another will direct equities.

294
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,160
At the moment they're, they're
kind of, you know, not going up,

295
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,800
not going down.
So I suspect if, if copper were

296
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,920
to breakthrough it's upper end
of resistance, you would see a

297
00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,840
lot of miners go with it.
Gold I think could lead the

298
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,240
space very strongly.
And then there's a collection of

299
00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,520
others and you know, who knows
what the next hot commodity is.

300
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,760
We've, we've had big ones in the
past like iron ore and we've had

301
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,680
small ones like like lithium.
But they're all capable of

302
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,440
generating a little bit of a
liquidity buzz around them and

303
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,200
sometimes they can last.
So I would say the best outlook

304
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,640
you can think of on liquidity is
going to be that it's going to

305
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:52,400
be a struggle.
The better stories, we'll

306
00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,680
probably find a way to get
funded, but they'll still be

307
00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:58,480
whinging about price.
And, you know, from time to time

308
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,440
there'll be something that comes
along that surprises you.

309
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,840
But generally where liquidity
pops up, it's where that, you

310
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,800
know, lack of understanding,
sense of excitement about

311
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,080
something that's not well
understood creeps into the

312
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:10,520
market and people are keen to
back it.

313
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:16,120
Quick break, but I can feel OK
drill bringing some excitement

314
00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:20,320
into the market soon, boys,
facilitating some of these

315
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,720
bloody exploration discoveries
that Johnny and headers are

316
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,360
talking about like look, if you
think I know Ding Ding Ding for

317
00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:29,800
you boys on WA one.
But they weren't even looking

318
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,160
for niobium didn't even know
what the fucking thing was, but

319
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:37,560
they were drilling.
They were drilling and you got

320
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,160
to be drilling, and if Kay drill
or drilling for you, you might

321
00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,520
find something you didn't even
know existed in the ground or

322
00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:49,240
even existed in the world and
voila, then you've probably got

323
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,200
LOL resource funded lawn
selection group Chuck and ape of

324
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:54,200
cash at you.
You don't drill it, mate.

325
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,640
You don't know what's there.
Yeah, there's, but it's easier

326
00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,880
to just, you know, like find
some rock ship samples and tell

327
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,720
the market that.
Yeah, that's that's when Kay

328
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,079
drill get injected.
Like mate, you don't get a 5

329
00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:09,400
star Uber exploration rating for
like sample management and

330
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:13,880
drilling for no bloody reason,
let alone the bloody personnel

331
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,440
attached.
Drew Harvey and Ron O'Sullivan.

332
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:21,680
What more do you want in terms
of like talk about a recruitment

333
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,319
powerhouse?
Who wouldn't want to work for

334
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:26,319
them to in a drilling game?
I saw K drill beer on LinkedIn,

335
00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:28,160
I'm going to chat.
With them all that geez it'd

336
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,200
taste good.
So bloody mate they.

337
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,800
If you want holes drilled get K
drill.

338
00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,400
If you want to drill holes, call
K drill and drill the holes for

339
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:37,920
him.
Get a job.

340
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:39,920
Bloody I said it better myself,
Maddie.

341
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:41,760
Love it, right?
Let's get back to your beautiful

342
00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,480
chat, JD.
So.

343
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,600
So does this feel to you just
part of a normal ebb and flow of

344
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,200
a cycle and and no real cause
for longer term concern?

345
00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:53,880
Well, I, I think it's completely
tied to interest rates at the

346
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,320
moment.
I think if they would have

347
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,200
dropped, then you'd see that
risk appetite come back.

348
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:02,400
So you know, my, my outlook for
how strongly could liquidity

349
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:03,840
come back.
I think it will come back.

350
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,920
It always has.
It's a question of timing and

351
00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,840
how strongly.
And so I think it probably

352
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,800
creeps back as it has in most
other sort of early booms.

353
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,240
And and turning from the end of
the bust into the start of a

354
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:18,080
boom has tended to be a slow
occasion rather than something

355
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:22,160
which is marked by a pinpoint.
Panning out, John, how do you

356
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:26,120
see markets like the the LSE,
the TSX and the lack of

357
00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:27,400
liquidity we're seeing over
there?

358
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,040
A lot of the feedback we've been
getting is that it's it's quite

359
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,120
dire and some people say that's
just a result of not many

360
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,280
discoveries and more attention
perhaps being put towards

361
00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,600
technology stocks and whatnot.
Are you of the same sort of view

362
00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,080
as those opinions?
Yeah, look, I think at the

363
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,760
moment, you know, the tech, tech
stocks and the Nvidia's of this

364
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,080
world is sucking in a huge
amount of capital also.

365
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,680
You're just, you know, it's just
the, the divide between big and

366
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,680
small is, is, is getting, is
getting larger and larger.

367
00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:01,400
So, and that's obviously, you
know, making more difficult for,

368
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,520
for juniors, particularly in
North America.

369
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,520
So I reckon that's going to be
one of the indicators in terms

370
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:13,320
of turning things around is when
we see the TSX Venture in

371
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:17,000
particular, you know, start to
start to tick up one little.

372
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:21,400
I mean, because we, we invest
offshore, it's an indicator for

373
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,880
me as to how many calls I'm
getting from, you know, Canadian

374
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,640
brokers to, to look at North
American stocks, which, you

375
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,720
know, cap pull, capital pull
over.

376
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,080
There is so much deeper than it
than it is here.

377
00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:35,120
But, but the fact that they're
wanting Aussies to invest in, in

378
00:19:35,120 --> 00:19:37,560
North America and you know,
staying up late at night and

379
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:41,760
calling me is an indicator of
how dire it is over there.

380
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,920
So when when I stop getting
those calls, that'll be a good

381
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,240
sign that the market's the
market's sticking up.

382
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,960
All those brokers have quit.
Thrown in the towel, it'd be.

383
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,520
Quite bad so how do you marry
this up Headley in the face of

384
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,200
long term fundamentals and you
know, perhaps you can speak to a

385
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,120
couple of different commodities
or however you like, but that

386
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:06,160
lack of liquidity we're seeing
right now with the structural

387
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,200
outlook for gold, copper, zinc,
whatever you.

388
00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,000
Well, I, I think the outlook
broadly for a lot of

389
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,880
commodities, if you just want to
be super general, is that a lack

390
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:20,680
of investment over the past
10-15 years, particularly since

391
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,600
the mining sector really went on
the nose in circa 2011.

392
00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:29,040
We saw every single budget
across the sector cut from 2011

393
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,480
through to 1516, which is a
really long, deep, horrible

394
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:35,840
funding crisis for the industry,
which was brought about by a lot

395
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,440
of poor decisions and poor
returns on capital, which have

396
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,560
been experienced within the
industry to that point.

397
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:45,600
So investors said, let's put our
money elsewhere as as that then

398
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,560
played out.
You know, there's there's been

399
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,880
growth in the sector, but
spending on exploration and

400
00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:54,920
project development, when you
level that up against historic

401
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,960
spends is very low.
So we know that there is a

402
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:01,320
crunch coming where supply just
fails to meet demand.

403
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,600
And I think that's across a huge
amount of commodities.

404
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,240
I mean, I think it's, it's
present in all of the main ones.

405
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,880
And we've, we've additionally
seen this electrification theme

406
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,400
not so much creep in.
I mean, it's here, it's real.

407
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,560
You said before, John, you know,
was 2024 going to be the year of

408
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,200
Icas or the year of EVs?
And it turns out to be the year

409
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,400
of the hybrids.
And I think that's the point is

410
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:27,680
that it's difficult to show when
the rubber will hit the road in

411
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,880
any commodity market.
But if you just look across all

412
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,480
of them, you know this is
coming, you know it will arrive,

413
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,040
you just don't know quite when
and it'll probably creep in and

414
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:38,520
before you know it, it's here.
People talk about deficits in

415
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,200
all commodity markets.
I mean, copper's a great one,

416
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:43,760
right?
We, we double the demand, do we,

417
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:47,640
for copper every 25 years.
And in the last 50 we've used

418
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,920
more copper than in every, you
know, the whole history of human

419
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:54,880
consumption of commodities prior
to that.

420
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:58,560
So you know, something like
copper, huge market in desperate

421
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,480
need of replacement, yet we
haven't seen that impinge on the

422
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,640
price to the extent that it
would change the upper limit

423
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,280
that people are prepared to pay
for the commodity.

424
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,360
So I think that, you know,
extending a forecast out over

425
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,960
three to five years, perhaps we
start to see that factor creep

426
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:19,080
in where pricing does become
tighter as a as a result of

427
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:24,080
supply, you know, well, falling
short of demand and, and demand

428
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:28,080
picking up as economies find
their way out of whatever funk

429
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,080
they find themselves in having
to work through this current

430
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,920
interest rate and inflation
conundrum and whatever else you

431
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,360
want to add to that conundrum,
you know, global leaders or

432
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,360
global tensions and things like
that.

433
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,920
So continuing to speak to
liquidity, John, we saw huge,

434
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,480
you know, one of the biggest
proposed deals in the last few

435
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,520
years, BHB going after Anglo
didn't quite pan out, but did

436
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:55,280
you learn anything from their
pursuit on how the majors might

437
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,960
pursue getting copper into their
portfolios?

438
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,600
A. 100%, you know, that's it's
very obvious that, you know,

439
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:05,800
they would prefer to buy rather
than find and, or, or develop,

440
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,320
find and develop.
So, yeah, you know, and I think

441
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,400
that, you know, just taking a
step back, that is good for the

442
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,120
juniors.
We have seen, you know, the big

443
00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,400
boys, you know, from the BHPS
and the gold fields and you

444
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,960
know, whatever, you know,
starting to assist the juniors

445
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,760
more.
You know, whether it's by, you

446
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:30,480
know, BHPS explore programme or
becoming a, you know, a 10 or

447
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:34,160
2019% shareholder in these
smaller companies or doing joint

448
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,240
ventures, which we have seen
more of that.

449
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,680
But it's pretty clear the big
boys don't want to do all that,

450
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,960
all the really hard early, early
work They and then they're

451
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,320
arguably not as not as good at
it in terms of getting heritage

452
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,480
approvals, getting land access
and going and doing the

453
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,520
drilling.
So, yeah, I think that's, you

454
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,360
know, if you take a step back,
that's probably good for the

455
00:23:57,360 --> 00:23:59,840
juniors.
But as Hedley said, we've seen

456
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,760
a, you know, capital drought and
there needs to be a huge amount

457
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:10,200
more of money spent in that
early stage area to make up for

458
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,240
for lost time.
And Hedley, you, you touched on

459
00:24:13,360 --> 00:24:16,960
China and electrification.
I think the view for for a

460
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,240
number of years was that you
could almost sub out China with

461
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,720
the growing demand that's coming
from electrification now that

462
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,080
seems to be on a bit more shaky
sort of footing now.

463
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,680
But the calls for India
replacing and a lot of other

464
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,600
developing countries replacing
that demand has been perhaps a

465
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,960
bit stronger.
How are you sort of viewing that

466
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,720
and do you agree with the the
notion that the demand coming

467
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,680
from electrification has
somewhat weakened in the past

468
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,920
year or so?
Difficult to quantify actual

469
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,160
demand.
I think the perception of demand

470
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,800
coming from electrification is
probably weakened because it's

471
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,760
failed to materialise as quickly
as was expected.

472
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,640
And As for replacing Chinese
demand, I mean, I suppose with

473
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,440
with Chinese demand, with Indian
demand or with electrification

474
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,480
demand, all those big themes
which sit in the, you know, the

475
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,880
mineral economics world that us
who think about what the next 10

476
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,160
or 20 years might look like all
have to deal with.

477
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,160
People were talking about what
the emergence of China was going

478
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,320
to mean for commodities right
through the 90s.

479
00:25:17,360 --> 00:25:21,680
And it wasn't really until sort
of 2000 and four, 5-6 that China

480
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,840
began to be a thing.
And then it kind of reached

481
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,960
fever pitch in 2007, eight.
And then, you know, it was

482
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,760
played out from there.
So, you know, that's a 10 to 15

483
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,640
year theme of development where
it wasn't right until the end of

484
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,560
that period where people were
kind of aware of it and

485
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,280
forecasting it that it started
to happen.

486
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:42,960
So a different bureaucracy to II
definitely has the population

487
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,200
credentials to be able to be a
big consumer, probably has a

488
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,760
massive bureaucratic blockage
involved in it, which the

489
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,720
Chinese economy has the opposite
of it as a, a, a bureaucratic

490
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,280
force rather than a bureaucratic
blockage and electrification.

491
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,240
I mean, it that's, that's linked
to so many things.

492
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,920
You know, there's scenarios
where the oil price drops to a

493
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,960
very low level.
Who knows why it would do that?

494
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:10,440
But you know, as as supply and
demand plays out for that and,

495
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,640
and if demand were to fall,
then, you know, what does that

496
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,920
mean for the pricing of
commodities to go into batteries

497
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,640
in order to compete and make non
internal combustion engine

498
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,080
vehicles competitive in the
marketplace?

499
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,320
Because at the moment a lot of
those things are being forced by

500
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,040
government incentives.
And I had a look on the Tesla

501
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,480
website on the weekend and I
couldn't bring myself to like

502
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:31,600
the way that any of those
looked.

503
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,400
So, you know, I'm kind of
waiting for a decent looking EV

504
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,640
to come along.
That's a bit superficial, but

505
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,880
you know, there are, there are
all these kind of adoption

506
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,400
issues, I guess which play into
that demand picture.

507
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,000
And it it hasn't sort of reached
that point of having its own

508
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:48,560
sort of head of steam.
I suppose.

509
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,280
Now I'm not, I'm not delving
into any of the themes which are

510
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,320
below that, just sort of
introducing thoughts and

511
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,120
concepts, but I think that's
something which will play out a

512
00:26:56,120 --> 00:26:57,560
lot slower than most people
expect.

513
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,360
One of the, well, a fascinating
article I read on the weekend

514
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,800
was that in China, electric
vehicles are now cheaper than

515
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:06,520
internal combustion engine
vehicles.

516
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,840
And that's a pretty sort of
monumental step.

517
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,360
So we often look at it from the
perspective of commodities

518
00:27:13,360 --> 00:27:16,400
prices going down bad for
Australia, but in terms of the

519
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,880
actual electrification trend,
when you see these batteries

520
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,720
coming off 50% in price year on
year because of the falling

521
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,080
commodity prices, perhaps it's
not such a bad thing.

522
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,840
Well, it'll probably build a
scenario where more and more

523
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,320
people are familiar with EVs,
owned them, dependent on them,

524
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,880
don't want to change back.
And that's great for the EV

525
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,800
uptake thing because I think
that probably cements A level of

526
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,880
demand which would be hard to
do.

527
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:41,760
Yeah.
And a higher commodity process

528
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,440
or even just take a level, you
know average commodity price.

529
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,800
Yeah, and probably supportive of
the build out of the necessary

530
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,560
infrastructure.
Yep, across the country.

531
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,480
Before we get into the sort of
specific companies that you guys

532
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,760
hold, one more broad theme I'm
keen to chat about is financing

533
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,640
and how that sort of shifted
over the past couple decades.

534
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,880
So we're seeing emergence of
more unique types of financing,

535
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,480
streaming royalties, They've
been around for a while, but

536
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,920
they're sort of gaining in in
share as commercial banks sort

537
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,240
of take a bit of a step back
from funding the development of

538
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,640
mines, particularly in
Australia.

539
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:19,840
What do you make, John, of the,
perhaps at times opaqueness of

540
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,280
some of these financing tools
that companies are pursuing and

541
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,760
the the growing trend of their
use?

542
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:30,960
Yeah, Look, I think the use has
sort of been forced on on

543
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:35,760
companies because of that pull
back by traditional banks in

544
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,080
financing the sector.
And, you know, they're, they're

545
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,560
trying to cobble together, you
know, a capital stack, if you

546
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,080
like, of whatever they can
basically because it's, it is so

547
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,440
hard, you know, for a $20
million company to, you know,

548
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,560
finance a $300 million project,
no matter, you know, how good

549
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:56,560
the NPV looks on paper.
So, yeah.

550
00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:00,560
And they are, you know, I'm, I'm
a bit of a sceptic about the

551
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:05,640
benefits of, of streaming.
You do end up, you know, you

552
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:09,160
know, paying a lot for, for that
money down the tracks.

553
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,560
So I think you've got to look at
that, you know, very carefully.

554
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:17,280
But, and I think, you know, more
broadly, this feeds back into

555
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:22,320
partly why the junior sector is
being, you know, so unloved is

556
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:27,160
that companies with with
development projects, the market

557
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,960
doesn't believe that they can
finance them.

558
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,520
And it's almost a self
fulfilling policy.

559
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,560
You can't finance that.
So your share price is going

560
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,920
down, which means it's even
harder for you to finance that,

561
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:36,320
you know, in terms of the equity
component.

562
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:43,400
So, and I think, you know, part
of that again, is the fact that,

563
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,440
you know, it used to be that,
OK, the gold price spot went up

564
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,840
and the gold explorers prices,
you know, shoot up.

565
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:51,560
It doesn't seem that that
connection doesn't seem to have

566
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,520
largely broken down a lot.
And I think that's because, you

567
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,560
know, there's such a long, much,
much longer time now between

568
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,400
finding a bit of gold and
getting it out of the ground,

569
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,800
you know, average time to put a
new mind in some data, you know,

570
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,520
1718 years.
So I think that that time gap

571
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,440
makes it harder for companies to
get their share price up and in

572
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,680
turn, you know, get the
financing to to actually build a

573
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,520
mine.
And welcome to the finance

574
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,080
options provided by Mineral
Mining Services.

575
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,320
How pertinent because tell you
what, if you're small miners

576
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:31,640
that want a low barrier to entry
to get mining, haven't I got a

577
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,800
deal for you?
Mate, tell me about.

578
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:38,840
It how good's this MMS?
The preferred mining contractor

579
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,160
for WA, no doubt.
What's that?

580
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,600
Oh turnkey solution?
That's what I hear.

581
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,000
Check this out boys, you love a
bit of a hybrid bloody random

582
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,680
approach.
Here's what they did with our

583
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:57,920
black cat recently.
Provide all funding to develop

584
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:02,280
and haul all from the open pits
to the Paddington mill following

585
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:06,680
recovery of the startup costs.
The 1st 30 bucks of cash flow

586
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,880
goes to black cap, then it's a
profit share after that.

587
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,440
So bloody.
That's that's actually quite

588
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,680
clever because yeah, it takes
the risk away from takes the

589
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,920
risk away from black Cat, who I
think weren't prioritising

590
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,120
mining from that project.
Then we'll look at the pulse and

591
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,800
stuff.
And now, now you've got a de

592
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:27,360
risk Ave to actually get cash
flow out of that where MMS are

593
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,560
willing to to take on the risk.
They'll they'll look at the

594
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,480
model, they'll optimise it and
they'll be like, you know, we're

595
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,000
we're literally the miners here.
So we know we can do it and

596
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,480
that, you know, they're going to
be confident in that and they

597
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,520
take the risk away and at the
beginning and then there's, you

598
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,200
know, shared upside afterwards.
Very, very innovative, mate.

599
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,920
MMS had breathed life into that
pit.

600
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,160
Yeah, like, that pit would be
doing nothing if MMS didn't

601
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:53,040
offer their turnkey solution.
So I tell you, mate, they're

602
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,880
shaking up the mining contractor
space so bloody.

603
00:31:56,880 --> 00:31:59,840
Yeah.
And, you know, gold development

604
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:00,760
stories.
I could.

605
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:05,760
I could feel the pages turning.
I think it's because MMS like

606
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:10,240
did you notice since MMS come on
the show how much those gold

607
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,880
stocks have gone up?
Like the developers like

608
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,080
bouncing.
Not a coincidence.

609
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,320
Give Josh the bloody legends at
MMSA ring.

610
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,920
Get their yellow gear moving
your dirt.

611
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,800
Do do you think that's a trend
that changes over time?

612
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:30,040
We've seen politicians in some
countries have as one of their

613
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,240
sort of policies that they'll
put forward a cutting of the red

614
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:36,840
tape around developing mines.
Do you see any real change in

615
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,800
there or is that a trend that's
here to stay?

616
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:44,520
There's been such a drive over
the past 20 years towards all of

617
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,160
the ESG metrics.
I think, I think it's difficult

618
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,000
to cut that tape when you've
been, you know, instrumental in,

619
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,280
in imposing in the 1st place.
And I, I think a lot of that

620
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,440
stuff is fairly worthwhile.
And it's not, it's not because

621
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,800
we should have, you know, things
which are effectively blockages

622
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,880
on the heritage and the
environmental things that we

623
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:03,880
need to look at.
They all need to be assessed.

624
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,880
There was probably a time when
you could have said that most

625
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,800
companies would do a fair job of
it without being required to.

626
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,960
And they would be regulated to
some extent by the government in

627
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,280
the area that they worked,
particularly local governments

628
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:20,520
who had a bit of leverage and
the financial markets and debt

629
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,160
financiers that that provided
money to them.

630
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:28,520
Now, look, you know, in any, in
any scenario, someone breaks a

631
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:32,600
rule, breaks it badly, you
impose a new and worse rule in

632
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,840
order to punish everybody.
You know, the 99% of the

633
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,280
population that didn't offend
are the ones that suffer for it

634
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:40,320
because life gets harder.
So I think it's difficult to go

635
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,520
back from that.
And I mean, a lot of these

636
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:48,560
political ambitions are driven
by what's going to read well in

637
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,720
the press.
You know, am I actually as a

638
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,960
politician going to understand
what's required in order to

639
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,520
bring these projects online
faster or, or what indeed they

640
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,400
require in order to thrive in
this country?

641
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,000
I, I don't think there's a huge
political understanding of that

642
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,160
really in Australia, despite
being a country where we're, you

643
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,320
know, mining is something which
a very significant mining

644
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,000
nation.
So you'd think there'd be more

645
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,800
sophistication around it.
But you know, a lot of ministers

646
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,320
are not professionals in those
spaces.

647
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,679
They're, they're effectively
blow insurance to the portfolio

648
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:20,520
and then they manage it as best
as they can whilst taking a

649
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:24,199
political overlay to it.
So I think those those things

650
00:34:24,199 --> 00:34:27,440
are here to stay and you know,
possibly beneficially in some

651
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,960
cases, but you know, it's it's
probably overshot in terms of

652
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,560
the time that it required to to
get a new project going.

653
00:34:34,679 --> 00:34:36,280
All right, guys.
Time to talk about a couple of

654
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:39,239
the companies out there.
So a bit of M&A that came onto

655
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:44,000
our radar last week was Rex
Minerals at a circa $400 million

656
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,080
bid.
And John, you hold Caravel, so

657
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,080
they often get put in the same
sort of basket as as Rex as one

658
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:55,199
of the few old developers out
there, you feel a bit more

659
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:59,560
optimistic about your holding in
light of M&A happening?

660
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,760
Look, I think so and that M&A
for Rex, you know, came out of

661
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,560
a, you know, perhaps a less sort
of expected area, you know,

662
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:14,200
Indonesian billionaire.
So it does mean that there is,

663
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,480
you know, money for these large
projects coming from, you know,

664
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,840
different, different places.
So not one thing, you know, that

665
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,680
has obviously dried up in
Australia is, you know, Chinese,

666
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,440
Chinese funding.
And I think that also feeds back

667
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:34,400
into an issue for for juniors.
But, you know, that, you know,

668
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,400
in the case of Rex has been
replaced with, you know,

669
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,680
Indonesian funding, which
presumably is going to get

670
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:42,280
through Ferb Touch wood, you
know, it should get through Ferb

671
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,000
no problem.
So yeah, I think you know,

672
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:49,560
Caravel can you know, be a bit
kept a bit more optimistic about

673
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,440
finding a finding the partner
that they that they need.

674
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,680
Just on Ferb quickly, another
one of your holdings I saw was

675
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,760
CZR, which has the Road Mesa
iron ore project currently

676
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,160
under, under a bid.
Ferb kick back the the timing I

677
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,600
think at the end of May.
How are you feeling?

678
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,720
And then maybe you can give a
couple of comments more broadly

679
00:36:08,720 --> 00:36:11,800
on Ferb and the role, perhaps
the, the increasing role that

680
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:15,840
they're playing in resource MNA.
Yeah, look.

681
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,200
Yeah, in that situation, you
know, we're told that it's just

682
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,480
an overload of work that Ferbs
Ferbs got.

683
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,960
But I think it has, you know,
that CZR thing has been, you

684
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,760
know, they've had Ferb have
asked for like 66 extensions.

685
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,840
So it should have happened back
in, back in March.

686
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,760
And apparently there's no, no
issue.

687
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,360
But it is a Chinese buyer.
So not that it's, you know,

688
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,120
it's, it's not material at all
to Australian iron ore output,

689
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:45,840
which, you know, largely goes to
China anyway.

690
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,760
But yeah, hopefully that'll, you
know, be resolved reasonably,

691
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,440
reasonably shortly.
But I think, yeah, it just comes

692
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:58,560
back to this issue that, you
know, Chinese funding for

693
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:02,240
projects has largely largely
dried up in Australia that, you

694
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,680
know, I know that Chinese
companies are still here in

695
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,920
Australia talking to Aussie
companies, but they're really

696
00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:10,520
wanting to talk about, oh, have
you got a project in Africa that

697
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,160
we can, you know, look at?
Have you got a project in South

698
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,640
America?
Aussie, You know, projects here

699
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,520
in Australia are, you know, you
know they don't want to take the

700
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,280
risk of a Ferb where they know
they're probably more likely to

701
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,360
get knocked back than than
actually get get through you.

702
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,800
Would have had a bit of a fright
with the Azure takeover, having

703
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,880
a little little pause for a for
a minute there and going through

704
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,320
without a hitch, but.
Yeah, yeah.

705
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,880
And that, you know, I think the
share price, you know that you

706
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,960
know, the bid price $3.60, I
think the share price got down

707
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,760
to maybe 320 odd or something
like that as people sort of

708
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,440
worried about what Ferb was
going to do.

709
00:37:43,720 --> 00:37:48,000
But, you know, I think the the
bidders there were probably, you

710
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,640
know, got a pretty clean bill of
health in terms of South

711
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:56,320
American and homegrown.
So yeah, I, yeah, I was never

712
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,680
too worried about it.
And Headley, in terms of your

713
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,480
base metal exposure, you've got
a mix of listed and unlisted

714
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,560
companies as Sunshine in in
Queensland has a bit of copper

715
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,000
amongst their gold and a few
others.

716
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,360
How do you sort of view copper
and the attractiveness of copper

717
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:17,760
projects given your Australian
first view of adding to the

718
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,600
portfolio?
We're, we're hoping to establish

719
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,400
within the portfolio reasonable
diversity across commodities as

720
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,960
well as projects and and
jurisdictions to some extent

721
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,200
within Australia.
You don't want to be all eggs in

722
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:34,600
one basket in one state, but so
far the best value we'd seen,

723
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,520
particularly in some of the
things we've had a bigger swing

724
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:40,000
out has been in gold.
So sort of hence the explanation

725
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:44,400
of a part built starter
portfolio, but looking for

726
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,920
opportunities that offer the
same quality as as what we'd

727
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,200
seen in some of the golds that
we've invested in.

728
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,120
And you know, when you're, when
you're investing in gold,

729
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,760
anything else has to compete
against the risk perspective of

730
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:58,760
how easily can you separate the
product and how easily can you

731
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:00,800
sell it.
Because in gold those things are

732
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,200
usually very, very simple.
So it's been harder to find

733
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,400
things in the base metal space
or even the speciality or

734
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,440
strategic space that offer the
same sorts of, I suppose risk

735
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,560
adjusted qualities that we're
that we're looking for sunshine

736
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,760
we liked on the basis that it,
it brought predominantly base

737
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,800
metals into the portfolio.
And then I think the second

738
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,880
jewel hit that they had after we
invested was 20 metres at 17 odd

739
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:26,960
grammes of gold as they, they
hit a feta zone.

740
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,760
So there goes that best metals
diversity.

741
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:31,160
They, they became more gold
rich.

742
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,560
We've got a bit of exposure and
sort of in the exploration front

743
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,280
as well through a couple of
things which have got a sniff of

744
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:40,040
copper associated with them.
But it's a bit too early to say

745
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:42,640
that they're a copper thing or a
gold thing or any other sort of

746
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,520
thing just yet.
But very, very keen on trying to

747
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,320
get into some of those.
And I think in some cases the

748
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,440
ones that we're watching that we
feel have the the quality

749
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:53,360
metrics that we're after are
probably approaching the

750
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,560
valuation level that we might be
happier to take to swing it.

751
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,040
And another one of the the base
metals that has a pretty

752
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:02,880
enticing supply outlook that a
lot of people on the show have

753
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,280
spoken to is tin.
It's got a a popular community

754
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,480
that backs it as well, but a bit
of a dearth of attractive

755
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,120
projects out there.
In particular, listed on the

756
00:40:12,120 --> 00:40:17,280
ASX, you've got an unlisted
Atlantic tin position up in

757
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,520
Morocco.
Is that something you've

758
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,240
obviously being unlisted,
haven't been able to sell or

759
00:40:22,240 --> 00:40:24,160
been stuck in for a while?
How do you sort of view it?

760
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,560
We got involved in that company
when it was unlisted and then it

761
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:32,800
spent about 17 or 18 years as a
listed company on ASX and it was

762
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,400
subsequently delisted by its
major shareholder parlour or, or

763
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,040
the, the delisting was sort of
championed by them on the basis

764
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,640
that they would fund it
privately or they would lead the

765
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,880
funding privately and then look
for an opportunity to relist it

766
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:47,800
at the point where it made most
sense.

767
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:52,040
So I, I think the company's
strategy at the moment is to, to

768
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,080
find its way to a new listing
and a more diverse register.

769
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,400
At the moment it's fairly well
dominated by that one

770
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,920
shareholder.
There would be hundreds, if not

771
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,400
over 1000 shareholders in that
company.

772
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,040
I think having been a listed
company at one stage.

773
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,800
So, you know, it's got many of
the things that it needs in

774
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:11,040
place to list.
It's just searching for the

775
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:14,880
opportunity.
So we, we always liked that

776
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,120
project for its exposure to tin.
It's reasonably high grade

777
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:21,760
compared to most of the other
development hopefuls in the tin

778
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:23,920
space.
It's in Morocco, which I think

779
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,400
you'd have to say is a good
country in Africa.

780
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,120
It certainly doesn't suffer many
of the uncertainties.

781
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,960
There's a lot of other countries
there do the tin market tends to

782
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,280
be up or down.
It's, you know, it's nowhere in

783
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,800
between.
And I think that's what it was

784
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:40,520
waiting for because that that
project has ADFS in place.

785
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,520
They've just published, I think
a scoping study now having

786
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:47,280
purchased the next door
neighbour mine from a different

787
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:49,840
commodity, but that provides
some underground access which

788
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,560
might get them into the hill at
a lower level as a starter.

789
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,400
It, it certainly provides a, a
place to be processing from and

790
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,320
a bit of extra ground which
looks to have some

791
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,360
terminalisation on it.
So you know, everything is going

792
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:03,880
well for that and it's got a lot
of study metrics behind it.

793
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,840
So, you know, I think it's
probably caught up in that

794
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,640
process of how do you fund this
into development and doesn't IPO

795
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,240
play the part there?
John, going to to your biggest

796
00:42:13,240 --> 00:42:16,160
holding, Remelius, this goes a
bit against the grain.

797
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,280
It's a big producer.
You've got a lot of explorers in

798
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,560
the portfolio.
What's the rationale here and

799
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,000
how do you see the next few
years playing out at at

800
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,520
Remelius?
Look, you know, Remelius holding

801
00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:31,400
there resulted from their
takeover of Musgrave.

802
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:34,560
And, you know, we were in
Musgrave for a long time, really

803
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,720
liked the Q project, but putting
it into Remelius, you know, made

804
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:42,680
huge amount of sense.
And we thought that 1 + 1 equals

805
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,200
at least three.
So we've held our held our

806
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:47,880
Amelia shares and it's done.
It's been good.

807
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:51,640
Yeah.
So I think Remelius, you know, Q

808
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:57,120
will add 60,000 oz a year from
late this year.

809
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:01,080
I understand.
And they'll still have Penny in

810
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,400
delivering some soup, you know,
really nice high grades into

811
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,280
mountain magnet.
They'll probably, it sounds like

812
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:10,760
they're probably going to do a
cutback at the Redanis and in

813
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,640
the May might that stage 3 might
be put on, put on the back

814
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,200
burner.
But you know, I think this is

815
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,240
something that's been a bit of a
change.

816
00:43:20,240 --> 00:43:22,520
You're talking about inflation
and cost escalation.

817
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:26,520
I think cost escalation is
starting to moderate and the

818
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:30,240
wages are still going up.
But you know, with nickel W, you

819
00:43:30,240 --> 00:43:34,880
know, being put on ice from
October, we'll probably see a

820
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:37,200
bit of downward pressure on
wages with although all that

821
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,640
workforce and, you know,
services, you know, becoming

822
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:44,440
more available.
So and, and other costs

823
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,560
understand that things like
tracking costs are, you know,

824
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,200
flat light, flatlining, at least
at the moment.

825
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:55,360
So I think you're seeing costs
level off and you're seeing in

826
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:59,520
terms of gold, you're seeing
the, the cheap price would get

827
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:00,960
higher.
So the margin is starting to

828
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,560
open up.
So I think Remelius will have a

829
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:07,160
couple of really nice years
ahead of it and and hopefully

830
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:11,080
the market will wake up to
companies like Remelius going,

831
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:15,200
Gee, they're making a lot of
cash flow and let's let's give

832
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,040
them a bit of a higher, higher
multiple it'd.

833
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,240
Be interesting to see what size
of portfolio they'll be managing

834
00:44:20,240 --> 00:44:23,000
in that period of time as well.
Yes, yeah, they could be become

835
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:25,280
become fund manager or yeah,
maybe, yeah.

836
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,680
So I've got to play devil's
advocate on the next one because

837
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,880
it's a holding that you guys
overlap on Saturn medals I want

838
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,600
to hear.
I'll start with you, Headley.

839
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:42,200
Why a .54 gramme per tonne big,
you know, bulk tonnage heap

840
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,760
leach project makes sense and
how do you get the Aussie market

841
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:47,840
comfortable with a project like
that?

842
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:49,880
Yeah.
So I mean it is low grade and

843
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:53,400
that's something which I think a
lot of the market has turned its

844
00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:56,640
nose towards because you know,
low grade projects, particularly

845
00:44:56,640 --> 00:45:01,800
in WA, if you were below point
7.8, you're really pushing into

846
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,640
the realms of being hard to do.
When you look at the resource of

847
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:08,320
Saturn, it's it's predominantly
one big BLOB.

848
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,760
It's not a collection of 10
different open pits.

849
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:12,880
It's not a ribbon of
mineralisation.

850
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:18,560
It's a big thick BLOB and it
adds up to well over six, 6 1/2,

851
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:22,200
I think 7000 oz per vertical
metre within.

852
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:23,480
And that's, that's pit
constrained.

853
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,600
So if you took the global
resource, which is where you

854
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:29,160
often take an OVM rule of thumb
off of, it's going to be north

855
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,920
of that.
It used to be that about 1000 at

856
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,160
OVM was a was a good rule of
thumb for will it be economic or

857
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:36,720
not?
And clearly that comes down to

858
00:45:36,720 --> 00:45:38,840
geometry and depth and
metallurgy and other things.

859
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:42,760
But you know, the likes of gold
Rd are sitting at about 12 and a

860
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,880
half thousand, I think at Greer.
There's plenty of really good

861
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,360
projects in WA which are two,
three 4000 oz per vertical

862
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,480
metre.
So whilst low grade this, it's

863
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,000
very, very metal dense within
the the position where the

864
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:59,160
resource is.
And because it's so wide, you

865
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,840
know, the ozone's 100 metres
wide in some places you don't

866
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:06,800
have to in an open pit sense be
be sitting on top of it with an

867
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:09,080
excavator taking 2 1/2 metre
flitches.

868
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,800
You can mine A10 metre bench in
one pass.

869
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:15,000
So it's it's much more
economical mining very low cost

870
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:18,040
per tonne to mine combined with
a low strip ratio.

871
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:22,360
So the dollar cost of putting it
on a heap is well below what it

872
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:25,600
would cost you to put a tonne of
any other or in WA on a ROM pad.

873
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,960
And then when you look at heap
leach processing, I mean that is

874
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,000
by it's very nature cheap
because of the lack of

875
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,000
combination you're typically
crushing to.

876
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,320
Well in their case they're
talking about somewhere between

877
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,560
4:00 and 8:00 mils.
You know, heaps are often in the

878
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:43,840
order of four through to about
10 mils crush and the the

879
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,840
metallurgy lacks a lot of clays.
It looks like it'll percolate

880
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,840
really well.
They've they've shown very high

881
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,400
recoveries in a heap leach
context from the test work

882
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:53,840
they've done.
And in fact, you know some parts

883
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:57,640
of that deposit recover whilst
low grade in a very competitive

884
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,720
sense for CIL.
So whilst it's something with, I

885
00:47:00,720 --> 00:47:03,640
would say Western Australians,
but Australians broadly aren't

886
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:06,400
that familiar with the North
Americans are.

887
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,760
And I think the North Americans
which are on that register can

888
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:12,040
see that that project makes a
lot of sense in their market and

889
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,320
they've bought into it knowing
that you know, where it listed

890
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,000
somewhere else or positioned
somewhere else, it would be a

891
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:19,960
very desirable asset.
So we've we've compared that to

892
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,960
a number of other global heat
bleachers and really like what

893
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,600
we see.
So having invested mid to late

894
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,880
last year for the first time,
we've just topped up with a a

895
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,880
bit of a bigger swing at it this
time because we're we're very

896
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:33,720
keen to hold a large percentage
of that company.

897
00:47:33,720 --> 00:47:35,680
And for those reasons, the
economics look great.

898
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:37,400
Has Hadley missed anything,
John?

899
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,760
Look, just, you know, a couple,
a couple of small things to add

900
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:44,920
that we like, you know, one is,
you know, there, there, there

901
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,480
may be a concern there that the
oil is quite hard.

902
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:50,720
But actually, I think you know,
as, as you mentioned from heap

903
00:47:50,720 --> 00:47:53,120
stability point of view and
percolation point of view,

904
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:56,040
that's, that's and, and you can
crush it relatively coarse.

905
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,800
The other thing that's just
happened in the last few weeks

906
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,880
is the company has now gained
access to drilling along strike

907
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,160
from the Apollo Hill deposit on
on salt lakes.

908
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,520
So there's some beautiful
looking geophysical targets

909
00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,520
there which have been crying out
to be drilled.

910
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,160
Getting access, you know,
heritage clearance, etcetera has

911
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,800
taken quite a long time.
But yeah, they're out there

912
00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:21,120
drilling now or about to start
drilling.

913
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:24,680
So there could be some, you
know, I think, you know, it's

914
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:28,560
really great when you're a
developer, you know, and the

915
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,800
challenges of financing
development to try and maps

916
00:48:31,800 --> 00:48:34,960
perhaps for the market.
Downplay that a little bit and

917
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:37,760
say, guys, look over here, we're
actually got some exciting

918
00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:40,600
explorations, something that
will, yeah, attract Mark market

919
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,840
interest and and that's what
they're now able to do a bit

920
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:44,680
more.
A lot of that ground position is

921
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:48,560
under some form of cover.
So the the project Apollo hill,

922
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:52,160
it sticks up more or less not as
an island, but you know,

923
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:54,680
there's, there's lake around
many sides of it and the, the

924
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:57,800
main structural trend has like
sediments over it.

925
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:01,000
So never been able to be drilled
in the best positions other than

926
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:02,720
where this this little hill
sticks up.

927
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,320
And I think, you know, the one
thing we've missed both of us is

928
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,200
the quality of the people there.
I mean, we've been extremely

929
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:12,400
impressed with the diligence of
the team which are managing it

930
00:49:13,200 --> 00:49:16,280
and, you know, led by Ian
Bambra, who, but as far as I'm

931
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,280
aware, there's only two or three
geologists in the world who were

932
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,640
born in the same town in the
north of England as me and Ian's

933
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,280
one of them.
So we, we, we, we're a kindred

934
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:25,720
spirit there.
He's got a different accent to

935
00:49:25,720 --> 00:49:28,040
me having lived in the UK much
longer than I did.

936
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:32,480
But that terrific team there,
you know, with a really big

937
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:35,240
project, big company,
understanding of technical

938
00:49:35,240 --> 00:49:37,360
diligence mentality behind them
as well.

939
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,480
So they're, they're not a fly by
night junior that's just trying

940
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:41,920
to fluff something up.
I think they've been extremely

941
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,720
honest with the presentation of
their data.

942
00:49:43,720 --> 00:49:47,360
So, you know, if you were to
compare scoping studies between

943
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,920
projects, I, you know, I tend to
think there's a lot less fluff

944
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,160
has gone into theirs.
This goes into some of the other

945
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:55,760
ones that I read.
So just talking about fluff and

946
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,520
perhaps lifestyle companies out
there.

947
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:02,400
Come to the right place.
I've got to ask you, you guys

948
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,440
have each got a lot of
experience in the in the junior

949
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,960
end of town and there's been a
trend that sort of shone through

950
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:11,800
in the past six months or year
or so in the uranium sector.

951
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:16,000
A lot of companies now, you
know, formally whatever zinc,

952
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,680
gold, rare earths now picking up
uranium projects.

953
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,160
How do you and if you've got any
sort of advice for retail

954
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,280
investors or how do you
personally think, obviously

955
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:27,040
you've got big contact books and
understand, but how do you

956
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,960
separate the companies that are
serious about getting a project

957
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:34,520
online or exploring for a proper
pro project versus just milk in

958
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:37,960
the market?
Oh, look, I think you know, one

959
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,080
easy philtre that you can apply
is others is the management, you

960
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,600
know, have they got good
experience in in the relevant

961
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,920
commodity?
And if they've been there, done

962
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,120
that, you know, come out of, you
know, 30 years in Camico or

963
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:52,840
whatever, then yes, you know
those, you know, they know what

964
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:57,040
they're doing in uranium because
it can be quite a different

965
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,040
metal to explore for.
It's not okay.

966
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,920
We're going to go and take some
soil samples and we'll look for

967
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:05,600
copper and gold and lead and
zinc and whatever all in the one

968
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:08,440
essay.
It's quite a different in terms

969
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,640
of expiration, but also in terms
of development quite different.

970
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:15,480
And obviously permitting is
about as challenging as it can

971
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:19,080
get, you know, for for any
commodity in uranium, I think

972
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,280
that, you know, timelines to get
through permitting are quite

973
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,480
substantially longer than for a
lot of other other medals.

974
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:27,560
So yeah, I just, you know,
that's an easy philtre to say,

975
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:29,040
you know, have these guys done
it before?

976
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:34,000
Yeah, Tenure, I think in the
space in uranium, but a lot of

977
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:36,960
the ones which have had the best
runs were not discoveries in

978
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,000
this cycle.
They've been companies which had

979
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,960
projects already.
So they had access to a resource

980
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:44,280
in the ground and they've been
able to ride the sentiment

981
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:47,440
coming into the space.
So to layer on top of that

982
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,160
exploration risk, you know,
would make it more difficult.

983
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,840
But the the companies which have
thrived have not been fly by

984
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,080
nights that have just, you know,
changed their spots towards

985
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,160
being uranium.
There are some which have got a

986
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,160
lift off of saying, Oh, well, I
tried gold five years ago and

987
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,080
then I did lithium and then I
did graphite and then I did

988
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,040
rehearse and now here I am with
uranium.

989
00:52:05,720 --> 00:52:07,560
I'm sure they'll find some
buyers and they might get a

990
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:09,920
little bit of a run from it.
But, you know, I think the

991
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:14,680
sustainable delivery of value
has come from actual projects so

992
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:16,480
far.
Now might be, I mean, if we

993
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,560
maintain this uranium market for
a little while longer, we'll

994
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,640
start to see some of those fly
by nighters do a little bit

995
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:22,840
better.
But you know they'll be the

996
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,760
first ones to wash out as well
on the other side.

997
00:52:26,240 --> 00:52:27,720
Beautiful.
All right, time for a bit of

998
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:29,760
underrated overrated.
There we go.

999
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:31,960
My.
Favourite part?

1000
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:33,400
All righty.
John, I notified my lawyer so.

1001
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,160
All right, let's get into it.
We've got a mix of companies,

1002
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,560
commodities, whole basket here.
John, I'll start with you, De

1003
00:52:40,560 --> 00:52:43,040
Grey.
De Grey Look, I think you know,

1004
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,840
they're coming out the other
side of the the Lausanne curve

1005
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:49,760
orphan period.
And, you know, they're they're

1006
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,200
funded, though.
In fact, I think they've got

1007
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,800
more than they actually say they
say they need.

1008
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:58,720
So, yeah, look, I think, you
know, the dollar dollar ten, you

1009
00:52:58,720 --> 00:53:02,640
know, and I think they're
probably on the underrated side

1010
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,640
of things.
You know, the gold Rd stake may,

1011
00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,560
you know, be a bit of a block so
that that, you know, sort of

1012
00:53:09,720 --> 00:53:11,680
tempers my excitement a little
bit.

1013
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:13,680
But yeah, you know, it's, I
think it's an interesting play

1014
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:16,040
are.
We are we going with convention

1015
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:19,200
here and you know, giving a long
reasoning or are we just going

1016
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:21,800
underrated, overrated?
Good question.

1017
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:24,760
Let's let's cap it in the
interest of time at one

1018
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:26,760
sentence.
OK if if you feel the need.

1019
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:28,280
If you want if you want to keep
it short in chart.

1020
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,960
I'm good with long sentences, so
you don't have to cut me off at

1021
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:34,280
the 10th comma.
This one's a bit different

1022
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:39,400
Headley Iron ore to be under or
over 100 bucks by the end of the

1023
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:43,920
year.
When they say you can find to

1024
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,360
make forecasts, just don't put a
a time on them.

1025
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:53,000
OK, so I can't say underrated or
overrated to answer that

1026
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:54,520
question.
I would have to say that I'm

1027
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:57,280
more of the view that iron ore
will have softness.

1028
00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:01,960
So I'm going to say the the risk
of it being sub 100 is is high

1029
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,720
in my mind.
Alrighty, John.

1030
00:54:05,400 --> 00:54:11,000
Metro Mining.
Yeah, Bauxite, look, I think I

1031
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,640
haven't I looked at it closely,
but I think you know, in terms

1032
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:17,280
of the the industry, you know,
and the box up price underrated,

1033
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:18,760
yeah.
Very good.

1034
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,440
I'm not sure if you've looked
too closely at this one, but

1035
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,800
Linus, and if you haven't, you
can comment more broadly on rare

1036
00:54:24,800 --> 00:54:29,760
earths.
I know I'm going to get myself

1037
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:31,880
in all sorts of trouble here.
But that's why we do it here,

1038
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:33,720
I'm going to say.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's a setup.

1039
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,920
I'm going to say overrated.
And the only justification I'll

1040
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:39,600
give to that is that rare earths
are an incredibly difficult

1041
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:42,280
space to operate in.
I think they're a great space to

1042
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,800
find something in if you're
interested in equity, value,

1043
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:48,200
accretion to operate in.
It's difficult.

1044
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:52,160
And so for that reason, I think
Linus is perpetually overrated.

1045
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,760
John Osgold, The Catanian Gold
Project.

1046
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:59,200
Yeah, look, underrated.
I think it falls into the basket

1047
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:05,720
of companies that, you know,
have been trying to get finance

1048
00:55:05,720 --> 00:55:08,640
for some time and they've got a,
you know, a relatively modest

1049
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:10,880
market cap compared to their
financing requirement.

1050
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:14,240
I'm going to throw a couple at
you guys in a minute, but you go

1051
00:55:14,240 --> 00:55:18,640
again, JD.
OK, I'll give you one that I

1052
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:21,600
think you hold, John.
Southern Cross Gold.

1053
00:55:25,240 --> 00:55:27,080
Overrated.
Overrated.

1054
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,240
Juicy.
I don't mean any.

1055
00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:31,720
You know, sometimes when you get
to justify these things, you can

1056
00:55:31,720 --> 00:55:35,880
soften that it's run hard in the
market and, you know, full kudos

1057
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:38,920
to management for being able to
achieve that through the clarity

1058
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,480
which they've put around the way
they describe it.

1059
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,120
So, you know, by saying
overrated to some things, it

1060
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,280
could mean, Oh yeah, I think
it's shit in, in the Southern

1061
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:50,360
Cross perspective.
I, I think they've got a really

1062
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,480
bona fide, a play that they're
running out there and they've

1063
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,600
experienced substantial share
price accretion in a market

1064
00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:59,920
which that's hard to find, but
that pushes it into the

1065
00:55:59,920 --> 00:56:01,960
overrated for mine.
That's that's the reason.

1066
00:56:02,720 --> 00:56:06,480
Like the rationale John Prospect
Resources Looking for copper in

1067
00:56:06,680 --> 00:56:10,160
Zambia?
Look, I'm not, I'm not really

1068
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,480
familiar with it, but I think,
you know, you know, Zambia has

1069
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:17,000
seen quite a bit more stability
of late.

1070
00:56:17,720 --> 00:56:23,160
Had to pull back on the, you
know, royalty hike ambitions and

1071
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:26,680
copper obviously is something
that you know, everyone's after.

1072
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,520
So and and you know, it's
elephant country.

1073
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,800
Might be right for a down cycle
in stability and royalty rates.

1074
00:56:34,760 --> 00:56:36,760
Edley one we touched on briefly
earlier.

1075
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,480
Niobium.
Well, there was one I was going

1076
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,760
to throw in for you, actually
for you guys.

1077
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:46,120
But since you've snatched it
from me, I'm going to say

1078
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,640
overrated.
And that that's on the basis

1079
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,920
that it's easy to get excited
and pay far more for something

1080
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,000
that you don't understand than
something that you do.

1081
00:56:54,840 --> 00:56:57,640
So there's part part caveat that
I don't understand it very well

1082
00:56:58,080 --> 00:57:01,640
and part, you know, finance
participant instant dismissal of

1083
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:03,720
something on that basis.
No, I like it.

1084
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:08,840
John Taraco.
Yeah, look, possibly had a

1085
00:57:08,840 --> 00:57:12,720
pretty good run.
So they're in in Southern Cote

1086
00:57:12,720 --> 00:57:14,840
d'Ivoire.
So perhaps a little bit on the,

1087
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,640
you know, intermediate to
overrated side at the moment.

1088
00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:22,960
But great, great project, yeah.
Do you reckon, do you have any?

1089
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,040
I mean, I just reckon, can I
throw one in here?

1090
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,480
JD, let's do it.
You've asked all the questions.

1091
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:33,320
This, this is not a hijack, but
for both of you, Anglo American.

1092
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:45,840
American I would lean toward
overrated thinking that

1093
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:48,360
executing.
I think the the sort of some of

1094
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:53,400
the parts is compelling, but the
the sort of strategy will be

1095
00:57:53,400 --> 00:57:58,080
very difficult to execute upon
and not filled with confidence

1096
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:00,000
that management can execute
that.

1097
00:58:00,520 --> 00:58:02,200
We reckon John.
Yeah.

1098
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:05,040
Look, I think, you know, BHP
showed quite a bit of discipline

1099
00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:08,400
in in not upping it's bid from
its third, third round.

1100
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:13,800
And you know, that was probably
at least least full value.

1101
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:17,160
So yeah, I think probably
overrated.

1102
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:19,640
Gotcha.
All right.

1103
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,760
Then another one.
Silver that's.

1104
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:25,600
The one I had, yeah.
Good, I got in first then.

1105
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:32,640
So a lot of the, the sort of
silver, I mean, I, I struggle to

1106
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:36,120
say it's overrated because I
don't think it's had bar a

1107
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,880
little run in April or May, a
bit of excitement came into it,

1108
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,480
but bar then it's been pretty
unloved of late.

1109
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:45,240
There's been a bit more
consensus building around the

1110
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:50,240
demand side for from solar and
whatnot, but I think that's

1111
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,680
still quite small and you know,
quietly spoken about.

1112
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:56,240
So probably have to say
underrated on on those sort of

1113
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:57,560
grounds.
What do you reckon, John?

1114
00:58:57,560 --> 00:58:59,600
And perhaps you could blend into
your answer.

1115
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:02,600
You know, this supposed
correlation with gold, which

1116
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:05,720
gold goes up, silver should go
up, which often creeps in from

1117
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:07,840
the I won't call them silver
nuts, I've heard a lot of other

1118
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:08,600
people call them that.
But.

1119
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:13,520
Crazies.
Look, I think that correlation

1120
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:19,600
is real and you know, it's
possibly driven by OK, you know,

1121
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:22,480
sort of the Asian demand in
terms of OK, we'll buy gold when

1122
00:59:22,480 --> 00:59:25,640
it's cheap and you know, we'll
switch switch some of that into

1123
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:27,640
silver when this wins is
arbitrage.

1124
00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:33,920
So I think that that is real.
Look, in terms of industrial

1125
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:37,640
demand, definitely growing, but
there's more than enough silver

1126
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:39,800
stocks to to meet that I
believe.

1127
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:45,880
So look, I think, you know, I'm
positive on gold, and for that

1128
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:47,440
reason, I'll say silver's
underrated.

1129
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:50,440
Nice John Osling 1 to you?
It's had a real fly the last

1130
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,480
couple weeks encounter.
So it's on the same theme as

1131
00:59:53,480 --> 00:59:54,760
Niobium.
What do you think?

1132
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:57,560
Yeah, look, I think the mark
caps, you know, pushing, you

1133
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:00,080
know, 2300 million something
like that.

1134
01:00:00,160 --> 01:00:01,720
Place 300 last time I looked.
Yeah.

1135
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:06,360
So look, and yeah, you know,
I'm, I'm a bit of a sceptic on

1136
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:10,200
niobium, you know, having said
that, a lot of the minor metals

1137
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,640
are doing very well at the
moment.

1138
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:18,920
So yeah, look, you know, for a
exploration play, yeah, you

1139
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:22,680
know, but on the other hand,
you're seeing WA one, you know,

1140
01:00:22,680 --> 01:00:24,760
with a, you know, billion dollar
mark cap.

1141
01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:26,760
So yeah, look, there's plenty of
upside there.

1142
01:00:26,760 --> 01:00:29,360
So look, I'm going to say
underrated just on that, on that

1143
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:32,440
basis.
Headley, I'm not sure if you've

1144
01:00:32,440 --> 01:00:36,680
seen this one, but a small tin
company in Tasmania, Stella

1145
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,600
Resources Underrated or
overrated I'm.

1146
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:45,120
Going to, so I'm going to apply
the judgement of would I buy it

1147
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,920
at this price and if, if I would
buy it, then it must be

1148
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:49,720
underrated.
And if I wouldn't buy it at this

1149
01:00:49,720 --> 01:00:51,720
price, then it must be
overrated.

1150
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:54,840
So on that basis, and given that
there's ten processing in

1151
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,880
Tasmania, you might not have to
build that project yourself.

1152
01:00:57,880 --> 01:00:59,520
You could.
You could arguably sell it.

1153
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:04,960
I'm going to say underrated.
I like it, John.

1154
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:09,440
Hot Chilli in copper in Philly.
Yeah.

1155
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:11,920
Look, we used to be, we used to
be holders.

1156
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:16,160
I think they probably have gone
into that slump of, you know,

1157
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:19,480
you know, trying to raise
development, development

1158
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:23,960
finance.
So yeah, tough a tough one, I

1159
01:01:23,960 --> 01:01:27,000
think.
Yeah, you know, I think they've

1160
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,080
got a few years ahead of them
yet to, to get through that

1161
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:32,480
slump.
So, so perhaps you know, using

1162
01:01:32,480 --> 01:01:36,080
Headley's example, I probably
wouldn't be wouldn't be buying

1163
01:01:36,080 --> 01:01:39,040
it today.
Headley, Catalyst Meadows.

1164
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:45,280
I've I've swung from 1 extreme
to the other on this one over a

1165
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:49,160
decade.
I really have a huge amount of

1166
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:51,480
respect for what James Ducremi
is.

1167
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,480
Sorry, didn't pronounce his full
full name.

1168
01:01:53,480 --> 01:01:56,200
James Champion Ducremi been
pulled up on that before.

1169
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:58,760
I think he's doing a fantastic
job there.

1170
01:01:58,760 --> 01:02:02,640
I got full respect for a guy who
will nail an M and a deal and

1171
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:05,800
then go and spend three to four
days a week working from sight

1172
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:08,920
to show the team that he is
absolutely shoulder to shoulder

1173
01:02:08,920 --> 01:02:11,760
with them.
And I think that that asset has

1174
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:13,960
the capability to deliver under
the right team.

1175
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:15,920
And it looks as if they've
identified the people that they

1176
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,400
need to do that.
So I'm going to say underrated

1177
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:21,040
and and, you know, wish them the
best from there.

1178
01:02:21,480 --> 01:02:26,960
John Aries, Resources.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

1179
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:29,520
Look, I think you know short
answer underrated, you know

1180
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:34,520
fairly modest market cap, great
team and you know in the right

1181
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:36,800
quantity.
Hedley, you got any more for me?

1182
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:38,600
You.
Have nickel on your list?

1183
01:02:39,560 --> 01:02:41,600
I do not want to swing it
towards me.

1184
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:43,400
We do it in a two part question.
Sure.

1185
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,400
OK.
So underrated or overrated?

1186
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:47,680
Gents.
Nickel Part A.

1187
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:54,480
Oh, I'll take your view of would
I buy the metal at the the

1188
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:58,520
current price on that sort of
basis, I'd say overrated.

1189
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,920
I think the you know what's
what's continuing to come online

1190
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:04,680
is quite overwhelming for the
for the years, a few years to

1191
01:03:04,680 --> 01:03:07,280
come.
Yeah, look, I'm more optimistic,

1192
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:10,720
I'd say underrated.
I think, you know, Indonesian

1193
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:13,680
production is having a few
headwinds, having to import all

1194
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:16,160
from the Philippines.
And that's, you know, they're,

1195
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,800
they're on track to be, you
know, I think 75% of world world

1196
01:03:19,800 --> 01:03:22,080
production.
But I think, you know, some of

1197
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:23,880
the high grades have been being
mined out.

1198
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:30,080
The easy wins have been had.
So yeah, you know, Jim Lennon is

1199
01:03:30,080 --> 01:03:35,560
saying, you know, we could see a
much smaller surplus than

1200
01:03:35,560 --> 01:03:37,760
expected in the second, you
know, in second half of this

1201
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:38,200
year.
So.

1202
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:41,200
So yeah, bit more optimistic.
Yep, Part B.

1203
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:42,760
I'm getting all Keith, good on
you here.

1204
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:46,600
Let's get emotional about nickel
for a moment.

1205
01:03:46,720 --> 01:03:50,200
Overrated or underrated Western
Australian nickel projects as a

1206
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:53,400
whole?
Because I mean, there's a bit,

1207
01:03:53,400 --> 01:03:55,000
that's where all the emotions
come from, right?

1208
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:56,760
Oh, you know, nickel price is
killing us.

1209
01:03:57,160 --> 01:03:59,720
I suspect if you found another
Nova Bollinger now, you'd be

1210
01:03:59,720 --> 01:04:02,320
financing it and you'd be going
forward and you'd be doing OK.

1211
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:04,720
But they're not all over
Bollinger.

1212
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:06,560
In fact, most of them are the
direct opposite of that.

1213
01:04:06,560 --> 01:04:07,920
So maybe I'm leading the
witness.

1214
01:04:08,160 --> 01:04:09,920
I've teed it up.
You hit it as hard as you want

1215
01:04:09,920 --> 01:04:10,440
from here.
It is.

1216
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:15,840
Maybe 50 years ago when a lot of
the mine started, it was a bit

1217
01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:21,400
more meaningful, but probably
just have to say overrated

1218
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:23,440
again.
I mean, it's, it's awful the

1219
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,760
amount of jobs that are lost,
but hopefully that flows on to

1220
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:30,040
have positive effects with other
resource companies around the

1221
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:32,160
around the state and around the
country.

1222
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:36,160
But there is a sort of reason,
perhaps part of it's because

1223
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:40,440
they are operated by majors BHB
to an extent, but at the end of

1224
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,360
the day, they're just not
profitable mines.

1225
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:47,360
Yeah.
I think you know, taking the

1226
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:52,520
Smulder out of the Kalgoorlie
operations that makes it that

1227
01:04:52,520 --> 01:04:57,440
much harder for other, you know,
nickel developers in in the

1228
01:04:57,440 --> 01:04:59,920
region.
Obviously there are other homes

1229
01:04:59,920 --> 01:05:04,080
for for nickel con.
But yeah, so from that that

1230
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:06,240
reason, I think it's going to be
there's going to be a bit more

1231
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:08,160
of a headwind for the the other
guys.

1232
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:11,720
Probably a net positive if you
look 10 years into the future

1233
01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:15,240
though, I expect so, yeah, which
is hard to stomach against the

1234
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:18,400
people aspects of us.
John, I've completely lost track

1235
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,320
of time and made you late for
your next meeting, but

1236
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:23,120
appreciate you guys making the
time to chat with me today.

1237
01:05:23,120 --> 01:05:24,640
Thank you.
Thank you for coming all the way

1238
01:05:24,640 --> 01:05:26,640
to Melbourne just to see us, TJ,
That's good.

1239
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:29,440
Just for you guys, thank.
You so much Janice.

1240
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:30,360
Good on you mate.
See ya.

1241
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:34,560
Lovely chat Jonas Benedict
darling.

1242
01:05:34,560 --> 01:05:36,800
That was bloody brilliant mate.
Fucking.

1243
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:40,360
Mate, that was credit.
Credit is all to to John and

1244
01:05:40,360 --> 01:05:41,880
Hedley.
Great to get them on the show

1245
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:44,960
again and get a bit of a zoom in
on the on the junior end of town

1246
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:48,280
from a couple geos, hey?
JJDI reckon you could easily

1247
01:05:48,280 --> 01:05:53,280
have a pod because your answers
to headers is overrated.

1248
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:56,960
Underrated were at the level if
not beyond what we hear from the

1249
01:05:56,960 --> 01:06:01,560
fundies themselves.
I was impressed mate, just like

1250
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:03,800
a glove.
I highly doubt it.

1251
01:06:03,800 --> 01:06:06,440
He caught me off guard a little
bit there natty, but I

1252
01:06:06,440 --> 01:06:09,480
appreciate the the kind words.
Beautiful.

1253
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:13,360
You know who else is kind?
Axis mining technology.

1254
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:15,400
Very kind.
And the rest of the bloody

1255
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:17,840
Partners Mineral mining
services.

1256
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:22,680
What a shake up happening here.
Verify get wet solutions, DSI

1257
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:28,200
underground, Silverstone, CRE
insurance, WA waterboards, K

1258
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:32,560
drill and a bloody spark chart
that's kind on your eyes.

1259
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:35,800
Good work, JD and her roommate,
all that.

1260
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:38,680
The.
Information contained in this

1261
01:06:38,680 --> 01:06:41,440
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1262
01:06:41,440 --> 01:06:44,080
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1263
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:46,160
or needs of any particular
person.

1264
01:06:46,440 --> 01:06:49,480
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1265
01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:52,560
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1266
01:06:52,560 --> 01:06:56,240
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.