Tin to the Moon: Paused – For now

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Alfamin and the Busy Mind looks
to be back in action.

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Their stock is flying overnight.
Obviously they're not trading on

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the ASX.
They were up 28% tin on the LMA

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fell over 8% last night and that
is a a pretty hefty move for a

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commodity.
Unfortunately for the Tim Barons

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out there, who's kind of in the
wrong direction, right?

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This greens are green.
What's going on?

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It's Thursday and the market's
back up again.

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We're back, back.
Jonas been.

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Looking at the been looking at
the the watch list a little bit

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mate.
Just refreshing.

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I actually seen that beautiful,
beautiful green.

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I honestly wasn't looking at the
watch list too much today, mate.

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But what a volatile market that
we are in.

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It is kind of crazy to think of
the yeah, the the intraday, well

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the single day movements both
ways in the in the last week

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that we've had on, on the stocks
that we follow.

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Could not agree more.
It's it's endlessly fascinating.

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Could, could read sort of day
and night about this stuff.

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And yeah, the the implications
for for all the companies around

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the world.
We today are going to be

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chatting about Alphamin.
So the tin barons out there are

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going to be happy to hear that.
Although some of those tin

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barons might be more
disappointed than others,

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depending on what side of the
alley you sit.

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And then AGC gold, no doubt.
Yes, no, just playing a bit of

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catch up on Gold Road and Gold
Fields and having a bit of a

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stab at what we reckon what
happened next with them.

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I'm interested, Ally I Yeah,
I'm, I'm following that one

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closely.
And gold is all the rage.

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And with all this gold stuff
going on, Ally and Jada, if you

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need a crew that delivers people
and gear faster than you can say

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where's that IT we ordered, just
call KCA site Services.

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These guys are stacked with
talent and tooling.

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We're talking about 38
Underground I TS in the fleet,

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with plenty more on its way.
Plus mate, a shiny new

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underground AG and a Normat
charge wagon.

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That is not a fleet.
We're talking about an

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underground army here.
Did I?

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Did someone say 140 meter
greater that is arriving this

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month?
It's probably already here and

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ready for hire.
KCA.

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Has more people, more reach,
more resources.

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Whether you're staffing up for
an underground blitz, a surface

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crew civil's works.
They will find the right fit

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before you even finish asking
the question.

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That is that that takes mind
reading capability mate.

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And I know that they've got that
Adam Wilson, he knows what it

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takes to run a smooth site.
So if you need good people, good

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gear and 0 drama, just call KCI
Jonas.

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What is going on in the world of
alpha men?

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Let's talk about tin guys.
I'm excited, alpha men and the

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busy mind looks to be back in
action.

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So it's been a little while
since we sort of spoke about

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this sort of stuff, but their
stock is flying overnight.

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Obviously they're not trading on
the ASX.

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They were up 28%.
So that left them sitting pretty

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at $0.77, which is a lot better
than it was just a few short

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weeks ago.
If we, if we kind of put it into

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context guys, before conflict
broke out in the eastern part of

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the DRC, the stock was trading
at about $1.10.

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Canadian traded all the way down
to $0.75 as the the concern sort

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of grew and grew and the unrest
in that part of the world kind

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of stepped up a notch.
Then the the mining halt

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happened and the the stock fell
into the low 40s as you can kind

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of see on this one year chart.
On the flip side, if we look at

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the other kind of major tin
player that is listed on the

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ASXMLX, they are now down to
$0.52.

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So they are over that sort of
past couple months their their

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chart kind of is the inverse of
what's happened at Alpha Min

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given they were trading up at
70% and that kind of downturn

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today is is tough in the context
of a market that is up kind of

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plus 5% broadly.
Ding, Ding, Ding on, on Metals X

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before you go to five JD But
yeah, I guess, I guess a lot of

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the the MLX holders were where
we're going to meet what looked

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like a bit of a bit of, you
know, substantial amount of

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global supply that would be
offline for an an unknown or

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undefined period of time.
And now that's, you know,

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clearly coming back into the
market faster than anticipated.

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And what's happened?
Yeah, with the tin price as

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well, sort of in reaction to all
this too.

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So clearly, clearly a bit of
frothiness in there alley Tin on

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the LMA fell over 8% last night.
And I mean in, in the context of

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the, the moves we saw around the
world yesterday, it wasn't even

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one of the biggest, but that is
a a pretty hefty move for a

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commodity.
And unfortunately for the tin

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barons out there, it was kind of
in the wrong direction, right.

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So the, the metal traded below
US 30,000 bucks a tonne from a

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high not that long ago of about
38 getting close to $39,000 a

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tonne.
So that, that squeeze was kind

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of short lived that we saw over
the, the last month or so.

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But obviously it's not, not the
last chapter in a, in a super

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fascinating commodity.
And it's sort of interesting to

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see and, and we sort of learn
more about it every kind of day.

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The, the way these commodity
markets have a way of reacting

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to, to disruptions.
It, it makes for a really

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interesting broader
conversation, right, Because tin

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is obviously not the, the
biggest metal market in the

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world.
It's relatively small and

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there's a few countries and a
few companies that have pretty

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outsized roles.
And I think it's worth a bit of

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a conversation because there's
plenty happening in Myanmar,

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Indonesia, Malaysia.
And then you've got this broader

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context of a, a trade war that
really hits electronics demand,

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which is a sort of substantial
portion of end demand.

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But if we start with Myanmar,
you've got talks about a

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production restart with the the
mining ban being lifted there.

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And then you've got this
earthquake, this kind of

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horrible event that interrupted
that about a couple weeks ago.

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Now it still seems like the
supply from that part of the

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world will pick up.
It'll take a few months to sort

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of ramp up given the nature of
the operations and and what

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needs to be done there and the
the kind of opaqueness that

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comes from that part of the
world.

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We often guess, we like, we like
mining stocks and we like

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commodity stocks and all that
sort of stuff.

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We get very excited about the
prospect of, of squeezes.

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But the, the, the thing that I
don't know if we always do very

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well is appreciate how
responsive supply can be amidst

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high prices to actually come
online.

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And there's, there's often in
those moments like a lot of talk

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and a lot of conjecture about
how long it will take to bring

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on new supply.
But I think we tend to

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overestimate that time as
opposed to underestimate that

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time, which certainly played out
in the the the manganese kind of

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trade of of last year when Jemco
went offline.

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And I don't like the numbers
that people have put forward for

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how long it's going to take the
man more mine in Myanmar, that's

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in the February state there to
come back on like your typical

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analyst will say six months.
But then you speak to traders

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and they're like, yeah, Nah, 22
to three Max, so.

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For sure, for sure.
I definitely underline what

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you've said there.
And if we if we go around the

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world and see what else is
happening in the tin market,

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you've got Indonesia which has
been underperforming as well of

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late, but things have picked up.
If you if you look at the kind

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of Feb numbers, they were a
doubling month on month.

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So that's that's kind of more
supply headed to the market.

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And then Malaysia, some kind of
interesting and like wild

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events, to be honest, there was
an explosion at a smelter that

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yeah, there's some pretty gnarly
photos that came out of it.

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The the company that holds that
one is the the 5th largest

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producer of refined tin and
their their stock fell 12 plus

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percent.
Pretty, pretty kind of wild

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stuff there at at Putra Heights
with it was the the natural gas

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pipeline that exploded.
And yeah, it makes for some some

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pretty horrible kind of photos
and yeah, speaks to a a kind of

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tightness in in potential supply
given that kind of refining

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capacity will be down for for
the foreseeable.

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They came out and admitted it,
but they didn't really speak to

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any kind of details.
Understandably.

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It's it's very kind of soon into
that one and the the overlay of

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the the trade war is very
interesting.

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So no surprise to anyone that we
saw the the tariffs being paused

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a around the world except for
between China and the US, but

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that that's pretty important,
right, Because that particular

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market is one of the biggest
kind of directional electronic

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trades in the world.
If you look at the the products

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that actually go from China to
the US, heaps of them are

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electronics.
So 100 plus tariffs is where

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we're at today.
Who knows where we're going to

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be in one month, two months,
three months, but that hits the

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demand side of the the equation
quite a bit.

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And yeah, like a lot of the
points we've just kind of

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mentioned there can be
interpreted in in a couple

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different ways.
I think people will have kind of

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nuanced views about a lot of
those things.

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But I think all that's to say,
it's a super interesting market

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to watch.
So what did Alpha Man have to

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say about all this, JD?
Yeah, they, they came out with a

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couple paragraphs Ally, and I'll
kind of summarize it here that

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they announced there's a phased
resumption of operations there

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and there's been a withdrawal of
the insurgents in that kind of

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nearness to their operations.
So the insurgents are heading

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back eastward and that the
company kind of gave the

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indication that these insurgents
are 130 odd kilometers away.

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That they didn't really specify
what a phased operational

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restart actually means in terms
of output.

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They sort of said that they are
adequately supplied with

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consumables and spares, but
think that's a bit open to

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interpretation.
Maybe they are adequately

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supplied for a a phased restart,
but they're only going about it

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that way because they don't have
enough to fully get ramped up

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straight away.
I don't know, maybe they do and

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it's for different kind of
reasons.

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They obviously want to keep the
finger on the pulse with

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everything that's going on in
and around the mind there.

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But we'll see how long it kind
of takes for them to get back up

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to full operations.
They did say that quarter one

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production was 4.2000 tons.
So this is a mine that did seven

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10,000 tons last year and was
sort of guided to do about

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20,000 tons this year.
And they also added that they

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sold 4 1/2 thousand tons over a
period that kind of extended

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into Q2.
So that kind of stopped a day or

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two ago.
So it actually does seem,

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although you can't kind of
definitively say because they

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didn't give any profit numbers
to it, but it seems they

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actually might have made a bit
of money from this pick up in

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the tin prices because they said
they're sort of export logistics

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weren't actually interrupted
from the mines care and

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maintenance, which is pretty
interesting to.

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See Care and Maintenance for a
month back on tin prices higher.

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Happy Days.
What's the latest with the the

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actual dynamics of the of the
conflict?

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Yeah, these are evolving to to
say the least.

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And obviously we, we spoke with
a couple people when we were in

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that part of the world not too
long ago.

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It's, it's hard to say that
anyone's kind of an, an expert

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on this.
I, I was kind of struck by how

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many people that spend time in
the DRC and the, the, the

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difference in views that, that
those kind of people had.

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But I guess we can kind of
collate all the stuff that we've

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read and and heard over the, the
last little while the, the DRC

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has been working really hard to
attract Western nations, namely

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the US, to come and do kind of
minerals deals for the the

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riches that they have under the
ground there.

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But there is a super kind of
long and complicated history,

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not just in North Kivu and
Rwanda, but more broadly there.

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And it kind of speaks to why
Western nations have been

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actually pretty hesitant to get
involved in, in the conflict.

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Regardless, you can see the DRC
pressing ahead with this

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minerals deal with the US and
the senior African advisor from

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the US was in Kinshasa last week
that kind of followed a proposal

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00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:04,200
that the DRC put forward.
And adding to that something I

225
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,960
kind of noticed and heard and
maybe you picked up the same as

226
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:10,000
well there mate, was that people
in the DRC they were, they were

227
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:15,000
pretty keen to, to have other
companies from, from nations

228
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:18,520
other than China come and do
business in the country.

229
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,880
And not necessarily a knock on,
on the on the Chinese, but it is

230
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,120
very concentrated in, in
ownership of assets there.

231
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,360
And I think for
diversification's sake, they

232
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,720
would be interested in having
companies from different nations

233
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:34,920
come and work in their, their
country.

234
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:36,120
And that's what the US is trying
to do.

235
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,240
They don't want to come in as a
government there.

236
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,560
They want their companies to
come in private companies from

237
00:12:41,560 --> 00:12:43,800
the States and do deals in
country.

238
00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,480
And interesting to see they're
named Monono.

239
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,280
They're named other assets like
the ones that belong to chair

240
00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:54,400
math currently who have a, a, a
deal with traffic era over some

241
00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:56,600
of those assets.
So we'll kind of see what

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00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,280
happens on that space.
With regard to the the kind of

243
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,240
conflict itself, the US
government actually asked the

244
00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:06,760
rebels to move 150 KS from the
mine kind of back towards Goma

245
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,200
and they were in contact, It's
kind of reported with the people

246
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,040
at Alpha Min to encourage them
to restart the mines.

247
00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:16,320
So this was kind of to
facilitate negotiations that are

248
00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,840
going to happen between Rwanda
and the DIC and that the US sort

249
00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,960
of added to that.
They don't want to directly be a

250
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,320
part of these kind of
conversations that sort of

251
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,840
facilitate it.
And hopefully that kind of sees

252
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:29,920
a peaceful resolution in the
interim.

253
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:32,960
There's a lot of complexity to
this one.

254
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,320
And yeah, I mean, you can't even
scratch the surface in our our,

255
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,640
our own commentary.
But there's, there's like an

256
00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,200
importance that the Rwandan
like, you know, military plays

257
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,400
in a lot of different parts of
Africa and that may have

258
00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:50,200
informed why the the West was,
was apprehensive about kind of,

259
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,040
you know, coming in at an
earlier stage.

260
00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,640
And now that minerals are on the
table, all of a sudden you get

261
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:57,680
kind of some, you know, US
involvement.

262
00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,160
And, you know, on the plus side
for, for, for, for Alpha min it

263
00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:07,160
it, it, it hopefully enables a a
smooth restart and, and, and no

264
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,800
conflict in that, in that part
of the world.

265
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,800
So shareholders would be happy.
Yeah.

266
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,320
Yeah, definitely agreement.
It's it's a long time kind of in

267
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:20,000
in the works and a whole host of
different kind of views and and

268
00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:23,600
perspectives and and emotions to
why we've seen what we've seen

269
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:26,280
over the past little while.
Doesn't it highlight just how

270
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:34,680
what like fragile the the tin
market is like this is yeah an

271
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,120
an operation that was like
forecast to do or is it like

272
00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:41,640
some a little bit less than
20,000 tons this this coming?

273
00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:43,960
Year, yeah, yeah.
And so we're talking kind of 6%

274
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,040
plus of global output.
Yeah, yeah.

275
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,920
And you can, you can just see
how how much that sort of

276
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,760
rippled through that not just
the equities, but the the

277
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,480
underlying and and it wouldn't
have been truly wouldn't have

278
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,840
been enough time to actually go
like through inventories and and

279
00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,680
have proper like price response.
It was more kind of the

280
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:02,440
speculative response in the LME
price I thought.

281
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,120
But regardless, yeah, very
interesting to just see the

282
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:10,440
fragility in that system.
Hard to get a solid rate on

283
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,640
those inventories.
There's a yeah, I'm sure that

284
00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:15,800
played a big role in what
they've got in there in, in

285
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:21,160
China, but it's not the the most
openly available information to

286
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,960
to go and find out, right, Yeah.
Ali, before you go into the,

287
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,840
the, the details on the latest
with gold fields and, and Gold

288
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,400
Rd., yes, on the back of our,
our chat with Headley last week,

289
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,280
I actually thought I better
brush up on my, my knowledge on

290
00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,480
some of those gold junior stocks
that, that, that might have

291
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,160
their time in the spotlight in
this gold, gold market.

292
00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,440
Headley, of course, is a big,
big shareholder in satin metal.

293
00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:47,680
So I was flipping through their
investor deck and after they

294
00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:52,240
raised $23 million last week,
they show this slide, they show

295
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:53,760
where they're going to be
putting some of that money to

296
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,840
work, including four holes to
step out their deposit.

297
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,880
But you see that that yellow
hole, they're highlighted.

298
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,720
Oh yeah.
That is an 800 meter plan.

299
00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,440
Step out expiration drill hole
that is massive.

300
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:11,320
Wow, that's huge.
Do you need a hole drilled so

301
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,440
deep it gives Jules Verne a
panic attack?

302
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,240
All the legends at K drill
experts in RC and diamond

303
00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:17,600
drilling.
These guys aren't just punching

304
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,080
holes in the dirt, they're
actually the drillers being

305
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,120
trusted with the 800 metre
diamond hole for Saturn.

306
00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:24,120
Can you believe it?
That's them.

307
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,160
That's.
Not a drill rig.

308
00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,080
That's a lightsaber for the
crust.

309
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:29,720
And and who's leading the
charge?

310
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,720
None other than Ryan O'Sullivan,
JD Geo say he wants sniffed a

311
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,160
rock and correctly guessed it's
assay.

312
00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,200
Wouldn't put it past him.
Rhino, mate.

313
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,360
He is the Lieutenant.
He's part driller, part rock

314
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,280
whisperer.
Rumor is he doesn't even use

315
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,720
gyro tools.
The rod's just nowhere to go

316
00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,560
when he puts them in the ground.
Mate he wants hit target depth

317
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,800
within one centimetre on
purpose.

318
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,920
He's rig alignment straighter
than than anything.

319
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,240
Just it's just straight and if
you want it drilled right,

320
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,840
drilled fast and drilled by a
bloke who probably drills in his

321
00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,480
sleep, call OK drill.
OK, Drill.

322
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:06,599
Alright, Ali.
What's going on with Goldfields

323
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:09,200
and Gold Ride?
I thought I'd do a bit of a, a

324
00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:13,520
catch up since you guys sort of
last spoke about it a couple of

325
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:19,680
weeks ago as a bit of a
refresher from when we saw Gold

326
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:25,880
Fields had sort of lobbed at
NBIO to acquire Gold Rd. but

327
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:30,080
Gold Rd. had rejected it.
So just sort of say what's

328
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,960
happened since, since that time.
That was on the 24th of March

329
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:33,720
that 20.
Fourth.

330
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:36,400
Yeah.
Yeah, came out and what we

331
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,320
reckon might sort of happen
going forward.

332
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:39,760
What?
Have you been paying attention

333
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:43,600
to?
So the first interesting release

334
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:49,400
sort of post that was a letter
to shareholders from Gold Rd.

335
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:53,480
that was on the 27th of March.
So that was there's a few pages

336
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,160
long actually.
And it sort of laid out some

337
00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,760
further context on the, you
know, proposal from Goldfields,

338
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,080
Gold Rose engagement with
Goldfields and they're sort of

339
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:06,680
Gold roads rationale for the,
the rejection and some sort of

340
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:10,440
key information that Golda
raised in the letter as far as

341
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:13,440
the, the rationale for rejection
included sort of the usual

342
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,960
things you'd expect.
So they were sort of saying the

343
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,280
proposal materially undervalued
the Gold Rd. portfolios and not

344
00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:24,960
just the grew year JV, but
they're sort of 100% own Yamana

345
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,400
and other assets.
They thought the proposal was

346
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,600
opportunistic sort of from 2
angles.

347
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:36,040
So that proposal sort of came
just after that underperformance

348
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:41,320
in grew year in, in the March
quarter and before also

349
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:45,120
shareholders could sort of
properly assess the Greer

350
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:47,640
underground potential sort of
amongst a whole host of other

351
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,960
things.
So then what do we see 28th of

352
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,440
March?
We see some underground drilling

353
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:55,440
results that help those?
Agree that help the market

354
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:56,640
understand the underground
potential.

355
00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:00,600
Yes, yes.
And then about a week and a bit

356
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:04,960
later on the 8th of April, so
this week we saw a Greer

357
00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,440
underground exploration target,
so.

358
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,160
With the scoping study.
Or or yes, and that's I'll get

359
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,560
to that.
That was interesting, that part

360
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,240
of it.
So the underground expiration

361
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:21,800
target, Greer, they sort of put
as one to one and a half million

362
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:27,960
oz ranging sort of from 1.2g to
1.47g a ton.

363
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,920
And mind you this is on a 50%
basis.

364
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:35,120
So this underground expiration
target, you could probably think

365
00:19:35,120 --> 00:19:38,160
about it as a, you know, it's a
step before a mineral resource.

366
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,160
So it's quite, you know,
conceptual in nature.

367
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,560
More inferred than inferred.
Yeah, or or more inferred than

368
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:44,840
inferred.
Exactly so.

369
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:49,160
And that was derived that that
expression target from the

370
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:53,360
results of a grew year
underground scoping study, which

371
00:19:53,360 --> 00:19:57,560
Goldreich confirmed in that
release on the 8th that it had

372
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,800
now received and reviewed.
Didn't.

373
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,960
Know you could do a scoping
study on an exploration target

374
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:07,320
ally we're we're getting into
the real the real limits of of

375
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,440
geological and and and financial
confidence here.

376
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,040
Yeah.
So and we'll get to that.

377
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,640
So then the they sort of
highlighted in the release that

378
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:19,480
like the next steps would be now
for the Grier JV to commit $26

379
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,200
million for a 60,000 meter jewel
program sort of beneath the

380
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:27,680
Grier open pit to basically it
proved the confidence, I mean a

381
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,120
potential underground operation
you see, you know that might be

382
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,520
you know, wrapping up resource
serve around it PFS and that's

383
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:39,160
more earmarked for next year.
Then the day after the 9th of

384
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:44,160
April, yesterday there was a
clarification announcement.

385
00:20:45,120 --> 00:20:49,200
So that as you sort of mentioned
Trev, the the original

386
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,840
announcement on the eighth had
some operational and cost

387
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:55,520
assumptions from this Korea
underground scoping study which

388
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,120
have now since been retracted.
They asked, Goldroy asked

389
00:20:59,120 --> 00:21:01,760
investors to place no reliance
on the retracted information for

390
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,840
any investment decision
concerning the company.

391
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:06,240
So why is that?
Convenient.

392
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:12,640
And I sort of had a look and
it's perhaps because the scoping

393
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,920
study assumptions that were
mentioned in that announcements

394
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,040
are working off a conceptual,
you know, mining or processing

395
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,440
imagery, whatever you want to
call it, which appears to be

396
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:25,320
largely based on inferred
resources expiration target

397
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,560
answers.
I more low confidence conceptual

398
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,760
answers.
Perhaps that's why they had to

399
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:35,080
retract it.
And have a look at this picture

400
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:40,080
here from the gold roads
announcement on the 8th.

401
00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,920
So this is sort of like a long
section of Greer and they've

402
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:49,000
sort of colour coded it by Oz
that have been mined different

403
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,880
resource classifications and
also the expiration target as

404
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,000
well.
So you can also see there's a

405
00:21:55,360 --> 00:22:00,760
for the YouTube viewers, there's
a a black outline, which is the

406
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:05,800
scoping study stops outline.
And that sort of encapsulates

407
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,000
the underground exploration
target that's in grey, some

408
00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,760
inferred resources which are
below the open pit reserve in

409
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,560
yellow and some smidgen's of
indicated resource in green.

410
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:21,360
But the point being that most of
that black outline is in those

411
00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:24,080
sort of lower confidence type
answers.

412
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,600
Not to say they won't get there
eventually, but that's just the

413
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,880
reality at this point.
So you do see ASX pool companies

414
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,280
up on things like this from time
to time, but unfortunately you

415
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:38,880
can't sort of delete the
previous previously released ASX

416
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,000
announcements so that even
though they've retracted the

417
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,680
information, that information is
technically out there in the

418
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,160
world.
And it's at least 2 research

419
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,560
analysts have used the the cost
and production numbers that are

420
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,960
in the retracted table to run of
of DC.

421
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,960
Hypothetical scenarios.
So it's certainly, you know,

422
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,160
makes its way to inform the
market about potential value to

423
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,680
that extent.
Job well done.

424
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,320
You know, they've, they've done
what they wanted to do.

425
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,760
They, they've, and I think they
were clever about it too, Ali,

426
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,960
because the big question is why
didn't ASX pull them up for this

427
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,480
on the way in like this?
A lot of companies get put up on

428
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,720
the way in trying to upload
some, some form of announcement

429
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,440
that is, is non compliant in so
much shape or form.

430
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,480
The, the, the, the study that
went up, it didn't have an MPV

431
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,960
or an IRR in there.
And I'm sure they probably had

432
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:29,600
some guidance about what ASX is
like, like checklist is of

433
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:31,120
things that just get flagged on
the way in.

434
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,400
And they were clever about not
putting any of them in there and

435
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,320
then, but they still put enough
in there to give analysts in the

436
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,200
market an idea of what this this
could be.

437
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,840
Yeah, because it was purely.
There was no sort of outcomes,

438
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,320
yeah, as you say, Trevor,
there's no like MP VS Rs, that

439
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,400
sort of thing.
They were more so purely sort of

440
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,320
operational and and cost
assumptions you've got.

441
00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:52,480
OpEx, CapEx and and production,
that's enough to build ADCF.

442
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,960
Pretty much.
But in any event, so that's sort

443
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,480
of what's happened in the last
couple of weeks, you know,

444
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,560
interpret that as you wish.
But in any event, where where

445
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,920
are we now?
So next week is the Degray

446
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,880
Northern Star Ski meeting on the
16th of April.

447
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:16,200
So assuming this gets over the
line next week, which all the

448
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:20,640
councillors seems like it will,
Gold Rd. will have a pretty big

449
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,240
chunk of Northern Star shares
coming their way quite soon.

450
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,720
So the expected implementation
date of the Northern Star Degree

451
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,240
scheme is around the 5th of May,
which is, you know, only a

452
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,400
matter of weeks away now.
Truth be told, if you wanted to

453
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,240
to interlope, though, you're
gonna have to.

454
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,880
You're gonna have to buy those
shares off of Gold Rd. before

455
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,440
that or before the record date
whenever the the scheme is.

456
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,320
Yeah, yeah.
So.

457
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,320
Whenever the meeting is, yeah.
So which?

458
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,920
It looks like a done deal.
Though it's, it's getting pretty

459
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,160
closer and closer, right.
And in in Gold Rd's letter to

460
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,280
shareholders, which we've
mentioned briefly before

461
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:01,640
indicate in that letter sort of
indicated the condition of

462
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,760
Goldfield's NBIO that they put
forward was for Gold Road to

463
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:09,840
hold the degree or Northern Star
shares, whatever they happened

464
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,840
to be at the time until Gold
Fields acquisition of Gold Rd.

465
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:18,200
completes.
But in that letter, Goldroy sort

466
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,560
of explains that they want to
retain the flexibility to hold

467
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:26,400
or divest those shares at an
earlier point to maximize value

468
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,720
for their shareholders should
they choose to, whereas that

469
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,720
sort of condition doesn't really
allow them that flexibility at

470
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,360
this stage from that MBIO.
Interesting SO.

471
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:40,000
It's something for gold fields.
I think you know, if they were

472
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,480
to put forward a revised offer,
something for them to think

473
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:47,640
about as far as the offer price
sort of in general, but the the

474
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:51,880
consideration structure and
perhaps reframing some of those

475
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:54,600
conditions around that.
I imagine it'd be negotiable.

476
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,520
I think what they've they've
done is they've look, here's the

477
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,400
basis of our valuation we've
come up with they're they're

478
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,920
thinking through the tax
considerations of them actually

479
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:05,320
probably having to sell the
degrade stake.

480
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,160
Then they've got to pay what is
it like some 150 million bucks

481
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,400
in tax.
So for them to reach whatever

482
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,400
the share price offer was of
their bid, they're, they're

483
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,480
thinking about, well, you know,
don't wanna, you know, I think

484
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:18,800
I'm getting something worth
this, not this.

485
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,080
Yeah, potentially.
And the other thing as well.

486
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,520
So OK with this underground
scoping study has been sort of

487
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,240
received and reviewed by Gold
Rd.

488
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,920
We saw the underground
exploration target for Greer

489
00:26:31,120 --> 00:26:33,200
released.
So we've got a little bit more

490
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:38,360
colour now on the underground
potential at Greer, albeit it's

491
00:26:38,360 --> 00:26:42,360
still quite at high level given
the sort of quite conceptual

492
00:26:42,360 --> 00:26:44,680
nature of, you know, exploration
targets.

493
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,040
And admittedly, there's still a
lot of drilling to do.

494
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:53,040
Mres like resources to be proven
up, study outcomes, you know all

495
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,080
of that over the next 18 months
to fully appreciate this

496
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,040
underground potential in more
detail.

497
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,720
Do you think that's fair?
Like do you think it's it's, I

498
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:07,480
think it's fair for Gold Rogue
to, to want to avoid being taken

499
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:12,040
over for 18 months until the the
value of the underground is

500
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,760
demonstrated in the market?
Or do you think it's kind of

501
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,560
immaterial enough that that's
kind of like a weak a weak

502
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,520
excuse?
I don't know.

503
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,880
This is sort of a question I was
grappling with myself.

504
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,120
It's like at what point do you
sort of make that determination

505
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:29,880
of, you know, is, you know, is
the status quo sufficient enough

506
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:34,920
to assess or reasonably assess
the full underground potential?

507
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:40,600
You know, is it is it now, is it
when all those things come out?

508
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:44,240
That was a question I was sort
of asking myself, to be honest

509
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:47,320
and look at Middle League Gold
Road and Goldfields have now got

510
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,120
this sort of scoping study in
hand.

511
00:27:49,120 --> 00:27:54,280
So, you know, internally they've
got a bit more information there

512
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,640
to make the appropriate
assessments.

513
00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,400
But the other question is sort
of ask myself is, you know, how

514
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,200
far away is the realizing of
that underground potential?

515
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:10,840
So the current Greer open pit
reserve life goes out to 2032

516
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,440
according to Gold Roads recent
investor Prezzo.

517
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,000
And it's probably reasonable to
assume that there'll be some

518
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,280
further, you know, resource to
reserve conversion between now

519
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,240
and 2032.
So for argument's sake, let's

520
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:29,120
call it 10 years from now those
if an underground operation is

521
00:28:29,120 --> 00:28:31,880
viable, if they start from then
you know, what's the net present

522
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,600
value of that underground
potential, you know, today and

523
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,160
therefore, you know, how
material is it and it's, you

524
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,760
know, publicly facing, it's sort
of a bit hard to say.

525
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,080
But in addition to that,
something I sort of learnt today

526
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,920
or probably didn't appreciate as
much is in addition to any

527
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,520
potential value from these
underground operations being

528
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,680
developed at Grier, I think you
also need to consider the value

529
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:06,680
of the royalty to Gold Rd.
So Gold Rd. has an uncapped 1

530
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:11,760
1/2% NSR royalty over
Goldfield's 50% share of JV

531
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,280
production.
Now that's not in place or

532
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,880
hasn't kicked off just yet.
That kicks off once grew year

533
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:23,800
produces 2 million oz and that
milestone is expected to be

534
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,560
passed next year 2026.
So if the context as at the end

535
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,320
of last year grew had produced
1.53 million oz.

536
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,960
So it's getting close.
Getting close a couple of years

537
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,920
more and the royalty kicks in.
Yeah, I think that royalty is a

538
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:42,040
bit of AI reckon it's super
valuable, like not on the

539
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,320
context of the market cap in a
very big way.

540
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:48,480
But but yeah, I mean, we're like
you're talking about this sub

541
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,480
level cave underground potential
that the operation has.

542
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:55,440
This thing's going to be
producing for at least another

543
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,560
15 years, probably another 20 at
least kind of thing maybe it

544
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,360
keeps kind of going.
So the, the value of that

545
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,280
royalty is, yeah, it's a, it's
a, it's a very attractive

546
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,400
royalty to have.
Yeah, so and there.

547
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:09,080
That is super, super, super,
super valuable, I reckon.

548
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,360
Yeah, Like, yeah, that is like
this is a big scale can get up

549
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,840
to if they can get it right, you
know, 400,000 ounces.

550
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,720
It's not and it's not a royalty
that has development risk

551
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,840
associated with it.
Like this is a, this is a mine

552
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,760
in production.
The royalty just hasn't, yeah.

553
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,240
Those cash flows are gonna come
soon.

554
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,440
And that's why and that's I
guess the other reason, you

555
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,680
know, we're talking about this
underground Prudential, you

556
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:36,040
know, any production from
underground agree will be

557
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:37,520
subject, you know, to this
royalty.

558
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,120
So therefore, you know,
extending the mine life agree

559
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,480
beyond the current sort of open
pits to underground.

560
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:45,360
Therefore, you know, also
impacts the value of the the

561
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,720
royalty to not just cash flows
from the project.

562
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:52,320
You know, obviously it's a
pretty good synergy for Gold

563
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,840
Fields if they acquired Gold Rd.
as this royalty would then get

564
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,120
extinguished, but arguably Gold
Rd.

565
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,320
Would likely you know, hey, I
want some, I want some value for

566
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,200
that.
Absolutely, yeah, if I was

567
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:08,120
advising Gold Rd.
I'd like what you do is you ask,

568
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,000
you ask gold for it.
Like if you're actually trying

569
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,080
to advise to get a deal done,
which hopefully the Gold Rd.

570
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,280
board is actually trying to just
maximize value and it kind of

571
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,640
looks like they're they're
getting there looks that way.

572
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:24,200
But but yeah, you, you want to
know, like, yeah, you, you want

573
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,000
to ask, you want to ask
goldfields what like what's your

574
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,200
sum of the parts valuation?
What are your assumptions behind

575
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,200
the valuation you came up with?
And then you try not get

576
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,280
nitpicky about all the
different, the different

577
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,840
elements and you know, get, get,
try and argue for a value uplift

578
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,960
in certain areas.
And the royalty, I reckon would

579
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,560
be a pretty easy win to argue
and uplift because whatever

580
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,680
Goldfields have assumed you can,
you can, you would just straight

581
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,800
away be like, well, let like,
let me just let me just like

582
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,120
soft, like, let me just ask for
indicative bids from a handful

583
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,840
of of royalty companies.
And then all of a sudden you

584
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:56,120
probably get like 2-3, four
times as much as whatever

585
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:59,720
goldfields thinks it's worth as
coming as like bids from from

586
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:01,400
the royalty companies.
Then you say, well, you better,

587
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,120
better up your bid for this part
of it.

588
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:04,960
And then you you work through
the list of all those different

589
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,840
like valuation aspects and
hopefully get towards something

590
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:08,720
that that is a doable deal for
both parties.

591
00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,240
Yeah, no, that's right.
And just for context now, last I

592
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,720
checked Gold Rd. was trading
around 3 bucks 5, which is

593
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,080
pretty sure all time highs, 3.3
billion market cap.

594
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:27,080
So you know, when news of the
rejected NBIO got released after

595
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:31,880
market on the 24th of March, it
had closed at 2:45 early that

596
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,720
day, Gold Road and the next day
and sort of in response to that

597
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,480
news, you know, was trading in
the high twos.

598
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:43,080
And at that time the implied
value of the mbio for Gold Rd.

599
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,600
was pretty much where it's
trading now. 3 bucks 5.

600
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:52,000
Admittedly, the A dollar gold
price has picked up over 200

601
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,240
bucks an ounce since then as
well.

602
00:32:54,800 --> 00:33:00,920
Interesting Ally I I originally
thought a bit about about this

603
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,480
undergrad thing and I kind of
thought it was like a nothing

604
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:04,400
burger.
And I was just thinking by the

605
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:05,920
time you like NPV back to today,
Sam.

606
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,360
So I mean, you know, some of the
forecasts like 2037 that it all

607
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,760
kicks in, yada yada.
But and I don't yeah, I do think

608
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,240
like when you NPV edit is going
to be relatively immaterial in

609
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,400
the context of things.
And hilariously, yeah, NPV ING

610
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,720
something that does have low
confidence, right expiration

611
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,880
target.
So you know, the extent that you

612
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:27,080
can that you can really wrap a
wrap a proper number around that

613
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:28,520
is questionable however, at
this.

614
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,800
Stage anyway.
Like this is a big ore body and

615
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,080
it's got consistency and that
sub level caving scenario is

616
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,640
probably possible.
And you know, gold fields, you

617
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,800
know, likelihood, you know, if
they had 100% of it 15 years

618
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,920
from now, we'll probably like,
we'll probably be be be milking

619
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,320
the pig there kind of thing.
So if if that is the truth of

620
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,400
the ore body, you do want to be
compensated for, for the upside

621
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,280
of that too.
That's gold road right now.

622
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,120
I'm hopeful that that the deal
gets done here.

623
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,080
It'll be higher than the last
bit.

624
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,840
Yeah, well, I guess it has to be
right, because it's sort of

625
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,280
where it's trying to get.
Yeah, I bloody well hoped so if

626
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,200
that were to happen, but I guess
I was.

627
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,200
Anything they're just they're
just going through the the

628
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,760
classical motions like
exploration target.

629
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:10,960
Come on.
Like, yeah.

630
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,040
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
But like.

631
00:34:12,199 --> 00:34:15,840
I don't think you know.
Azure did the same like yes

632
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,520
Spartan have done 1 you know
the.

633
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:19,840
Yeah, I know.
I know, I know.

634
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,719
Checking out the report, this is
this is all kind of one O 1.

635
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:24,760
This is the dance, kind of.
It is the dance.

636
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,199
It is the dance, yeah.
Absolutely.

637
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:30,520
And this.
Volatility makes it makes it

638
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:34,520
hard to get a deal done per SE,
but I don't think like you know,

639
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,120
gold is gone from strength to
strength.

640
00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:41,040
It's volatility hasn't been what
the broader market has been and

641
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,880
I'm sure gold fields will be
determined to.

642
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,920
It's a cash deal also.
Being a cash offer too so.

643
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,000
Strangely, the thing that
actually could kill the deal is

644
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:55,880
if if gold rips very fast.
Yeah, yeah, because it's that

645
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,120
then all of a sudden if you're
gold, right, it's easy to to

646
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:01,160
like all of all of a sudden
heaps of your shareholder

647
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:02,000
saying, no, don't take that
deal.

648
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,160
You're you're you know, you're
worth, you're worth way more

649
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,320
than that offer now.
So gold gold ripping to the

650
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:08,280
upside.
Actually.

651
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,000
Be fast and kill the deal too.
Yeah, I was going to ask you

652
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,680
guys sort of in light of the IT
was already sort of started

653
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:20,080
talking about it, but the the
recent announcements out from

654
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:24,360
gold grow the upcoming grey
scheme vote next week in mind.

655
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,400
How do you guys see the path
forward?

656
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:34,080
Do do you feel now as opposed to
say 2:00-ish weeks ago, there's

657
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:38,480
a better likelihood for a deal
to be sort of revisited and and

658
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,600
recut and perhaps everyone's had
a bit of time to cool down as

659
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,520
well?
I'm hopeful I won't.

660
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,720
I won't hold my breath.
Like I know a lot of, yeah, a

661
00:35:48,720 --> 00:35:50,560
lot of like historic gold rush
shareholders have been like

662
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,040
tremendously frustrated with the
lack of engagement in, in a

663
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,200
corporate outcome when they
think the company's been

664
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:57,640
undervalued.
And, and there's been

665
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,800
opportunities in the past.
However, I think, I think it's

666
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,400
different this time, even the
public nature of it.

667
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:07,120
And, and you know, we've
observed the, the evolution from

668
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,480
like complete kind of vehement
rejection to now talking about

669
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:14,800
things like value, which is very
positive for, for the optics.

670
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,280
Maybe we see them talk up their
other expiration kind of plays

671
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,800
next week in and around the area
and then and then in the

672
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,400
meantime they're they're
chatting and something emerges

673
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,480
in in a few weeks time we'll
see.

674
00:36:29,720 --> 00:36:33,240
Oh, look, I think that's, I
think as a board you sort of

675
00:36:33,240 --> 00:36:36,360
have to do that right, you know,
maximize value for your

676
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:40,880
shareholders.
So the, yeah, it's sort of been

677
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,120
a fascinating last couple ways.
So I'm, I'm looking forward to

678
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:48,120
say what's next.
And yeah, maybe there'll be

679
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:53,600
something new on the table
sometime soon, who knows?

680
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:58,240
But oh, it's just, yeah,
fascinating sort of dynamics to

681
00:36:58,240 --> 00:36:59,920
watch.
Very, very cool stuff.

682
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,400
For sure, and there is something
new on the table for you to

683
00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:05,280
watch in the meantime.
Ali, I know you did a bit of

684
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:10,600
digging on MI6 or Minerals 260.
Years so they're actually back

685
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,840
on the a six boards as it today
this morning.

686
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:18,560
So they had a as a refresher for
those who didn't know that a bit

687
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,760
of a hiatus since end of last
year.

688
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,680
They're in sort of suspension
while they finalized the

689
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,960
acquisition of the Bulla
bullying gold project from

690
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,280
Norton Gold Fields.
They raised $220 million to sort

691
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,760
of acquire that asset and, and,
you know, advance it going

692
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,200
forward.
And, you know, they've

693
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,120
recompiled with all the, you
know, Chapter 1 and two of the

694
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,200
six listing rules to get back on
the boards.

695
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,480
They raised that 220 million at
12 cents.

696
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:48,120
Last I checked, it was trading
around 11-11 cents over the

697
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:53,960
course of the the day so far.
So there'll be plus 80,000

698
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:59,000
meters of worth of drilling due
to commence this month actually

699
00:37:59,080 --> 00:38:02,800
and a resource update planned,
you know, later this year, you

700
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:06,120
know, amongst other things.
So it'll be an interesting one

701
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:11,160
to follow to say what the asset
will do and look like under

702
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,680
under a new team and new
management, especially in this

703
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:18,320
gold price and you know, also in
a publicly listed environment as

704
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,080
well, so.
It's a lot of money to be raised

705
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,240
for a small company.
So yeah, cool to see a new

706
00:38:23,240 --> 00:38:26,760
undeveloped gold project on that
on the boards and another one to

707
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,600
just to to follow overtime Ally.
Absolutely.

708
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,360
Leverage to gold price.
No gold.

709
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:37,000
Awesome work Ally, but a couple
couple partners to to thank and

710
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,680
wrap up a a pretty green
Thursday for most of the punters

711
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,240
out there.
Big thank you to GRX.

712
00:38:43,240 --> 00:38:45,640
Get your tickets, discounts in
the show notes.

713
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,480
That conference is coming up at
the end of May.

714
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,520
And a big thank you to all our
awesome partners.

715
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:53,160
Mineral mining services,
grounded Sandvik ground support,

716
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,520
CRA insurance, Kadrill WA water
balls, Quattro project

717
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:01,200
engineering, KCA side services,
Black diamond drilling services

718
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,200
and last but not least, Cross
boundary energy.

719
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,760
Hedoroo, guys, Hedoroo.
Information contained in this

720
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,520
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

721
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:12,160
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

722
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:14,200
or needs of any particular
person.

723
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,560
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

724
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,600
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

725
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:24,280
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.