These 8 Gold Juniors are on our M&A Watchlists

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Ali, I've got a bit of a bit of
feedback for you from

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yesterday's right episode.
Tell me comments on YouTube like

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strap in, because sometimes
these comments is like it'd be a

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bit harsh, you know, a bit
sometimes a bit harsh.

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You just gotta take them with a
grain of salt.

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But Davey Black 100 says, can
someone tell L e.g.

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C it's nuclear, not nuclear,
nuclear, nuclear.

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How do you say it?
Nuclear.

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Now I'm.
Really thinking.

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Do you know when you think and
read a word too much and you're

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thinking like, Oh my God, it's
just like, oh, I'm going loopy.

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I have to say it really slow.
Nuclear.

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Well, he finishes off the
comment by saying she's still

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tops.
Oh, that's so like Davy says,

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you're still tops, Ali, just
like Axis mining technology,

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mate, they are tops.
They do the heavy lifting for

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the drillers, the geos alike, so
they can just get on with

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finding the deposits, the stuff
that matters in our industry and

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they're going to be making it
even easier and around months

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time.
Stay tuned for that or get a get

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a sneak peek of what Axis mining
technology have in store for the

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industry and idea.
I'm very excited about that,

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excited about our show because
today we've got more nuke,

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nuclear nucleus.
Alley.

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JD and I went on a bit of a
rabbit hole chasing what's going

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on with this, you know, Paladin
fission deal.

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Is it really a done deal?
Because there's this CGN is, is

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opposing it as announced by both
of those parties.

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And Ellie, you're going to run
us through the African junior

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gold candidates for for future
acquisitions.

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Yes, very interesting.
Oh, I'm interested.

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Deep dive there.
I'm keen to know what you find

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because yeah, some of those
companies slip off our radar and

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and JD, we're new, it's up for
grabs and Igos being thrown in

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the mix by our good, good, good
friends at a data room.

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Mate, there'll be a a few
friends of the shows that get a

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get a mention today, but I
reckon we got to start with the

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the Paladin fusion deal.
How good was this?

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I don't know why we didn't read
through the the 400 or 500 page

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document earlier, but there's,
you know, there's there's quite

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a bit of, you know, news
emerging on this one looking

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like, as you say, it might not
be done and dusted.

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So we're going to dive into
whether we should sort of put

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any weight into this one.
But to give people the quick

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recap, the the shareholders
voted it through.

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Apparently that's sort of 67%.
They needed 2/3 and that was the

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last we spoke about it last week
until Paladin came up with an

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announcement yesterday morning.
Now, what they came out and said

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was that a 11.26% shareholder in
Fission, CGN Mining, is opposing

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the deal.
Now CGN Mining is a subsidiary

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of China Nuclear or China
General Nuclear Power Corp.

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So they're one of the two big
dogs in nuclear power in China.

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Now we're in addition.
To that JD fission put out

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basically the exact same
statement themselves on on

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Cedar, but you read it and
you're like why does it even

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matter?
Because like, you know, it's.

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Already been approved.
Shareholders had their chance to

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to vote on the deal or not vote.
So like, why the hell do you

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even put this announcement out
if it's kind of like an

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irrelevant like byproduct of the
deal now?

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Feels feels a bit telling right
that they that they have to come

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out and call it market sensitive
and stuff.

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So what they've kind of said is
that the the hearings are going

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to run until the 26th of
December.

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They've started a few days ago
and there's, you know, your

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standard conditions.
They're clearly not all been

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met.
One of the ones they name is the

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Investment Canada Act.
They need clearance for that.

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And then you know your standard
other conditions.

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But I think we should start with
a bit of history very quickly on

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CGN and fission.
So putting Paladin aside for a

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second and we're going to go
right down to rabbit hole

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because it's super juicy here,
but how this all starts is in

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late 2015.
We'll check up an announcement

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now and what you can see is that
CGN invests 82,000,000 bucks to

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take an 110.9% stake in Fission.
They get 20% of the sales rights

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for Offtake, obviously part of
the reason why they'd invested

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there.
They get two people on the board

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now.
Funnily enough, this was done at

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$0.85, which is bang on where
they were trading yesterday and

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kind of interestingly, which
we'll get into in a whole lot

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more detail.
I think it'd be pretty hard to

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get an investment just like that
for a sort of 20% stake done

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today, obviously with China and
the the fight and defence that

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Canada has put up for their
miners going all the way down to

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kind of their their juniors.
But there's a there's a whole

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lot more to this story.
And Trevor, I've know I know

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you've gone super deep on this
one.

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So push the the mic over to you
now, but.

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I think, I think the history
between CGN and fission, you

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know, has, has, has more, more,
more legs to it than than just

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that kind of history.
Like let let me explain.

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Like, even though we talked
about this deal, a bunch of I

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finally opened the 444 page
information circular that was

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pend in relation to the deal,
which I should have done before.

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And because you know, there's
always interesting stuff in

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them.
You always, you know, I've

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talked about these before.
Like there are a couple of

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segments, sections of these
documents that are always like

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worth a read because you'll
learn something like truly

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interesting about how these
deals come together.

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And one of those sections is
titled background to the

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agreement.
And I like, I love reading these

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sections, right?
And, and, and in this deal there

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is absolutely like, like
sometimes you can learn in this

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section if, if there's like, you
know what the competitive

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process looked like.
Who approached to 1st?

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When was the CA signed?
Was there another party in the

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mix that was submitting bids
too, right.

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And that's kind of what we we
talked about with, with with

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Corolla and and what we've
realised was Goldfields who was

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chucking in some like like bids
into the mix too in, in that.

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Mate, this one, this one might
even might even top that one,

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hey?
I think it's, I think it's

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pretty juicy.
So here's here's what I learned

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reading through that section of
the information circular.

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It was, it was actually fission
that wanted this deal.

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They, they engaged advisors back
in October 2022.

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Wow.
So nearly nearly two years ago,

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I mean, you know, why do you
engage advisors?

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Why word it in such a way that
they say evaluating strategic

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alternatives available to
Fission?

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We all know what that means.
I wanted someone to buy them.

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And this this kind of culminated
in them getting an offer from

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what the document refers to as
party one a month later, payable

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in the shares of party one.
They say the deal was

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conditional on things outside
the control of Fission.

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That's the wording they use.
So Fission they knock back the

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deal party one played hardball
and actually, you know,

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apparently said that they
wouldn't submit a counter offer

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that kind of, you know, met met
Vision's requirements, you know,

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in a bit of a better way.
So negotiations ended like, you

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know, about two years ago.
So Vision's bankers hit up

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Paladin.
Apparently a year later,

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November 2023 ACA between
Paladin and Vision was signed in

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December.
And then party one comes back

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into the mix and lobs a second
proposal.

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I assume this time it was in the
right ballpark on value.

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So Vision, they appear to move
forward with this proposal.

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They get fairness opinions.
Lawyers are seemingly going back

141
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and forth with iterations of a
draught arrangement agreement

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that only kind of happens when
things are pretty advanced.

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It it reads to me like, you
know, this was the preferred

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deal division and that they were
sort of marching ahead.

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I assume they were in
exclusivity too, although the,

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you know, the background section
sort of withholds that detail.

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But you know what's happening as
I described things to me reads

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like that were in exclusivity.
But then this, right?

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Negotiations between Party 1 and
Fission terminated at the end of

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January 2024 when it became
evident to the special

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committee, the board and
Fission's management team that

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the conditions of the
transaction with party one were

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outside of which were outside of
Fission's control could not be

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satisfied.
On January the 31st, Fission

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senior management reached out to
Paladin management to recommend

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discussions on a potential
business combination

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transaction.
So, so Fission was supposed to

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be gobbled up by somebody else,
called them party one.

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And according to the information
circular, the only reason they

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weren't is because some
conditions to the transaction

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could not be satisfied.
So Paladin kind of gets brought

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in as Plan B for Fission, I
assume.

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And so Fission shareholders that
were upset at the low premium,

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like there was an offer when
this deal, whole deal got

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announced, you know, they're all
complaining they didn't get

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enough money, blah, blah, blah.
Too bad, it looks to me like

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Paladin had all the leverage in
the negotiation because, you

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know, it was kind of like fished
out to them because this other

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deal kind of, you know, didn't
get through.

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It's not like no one banging on
the door asking to do a deal.

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So you're not going to get a
giant premium in that situation.

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The rest of the background is a
bit vanilla when you read it

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all, like Paladin's second bead
kind of got the deal done.

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There was a, you know, a bit of
an uplift they talk about.

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But you know, again, we don't
mustn't have been a giant uplift

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because the the premium was
pretty market standard and the

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rest of like, you know, but the
the story here is, is this party

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one right, the party one that
was close to getting a deal done

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because you know what I'm
thinking, JD about this party

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one.
I've got a feeling I'm doing

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mate.
Who's party one?

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00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:18,000
I think it could be CGN, right?
So here's here's here's another

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thing though, right when, when
you read this background

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section, it says that in both
occurrences, both the first

185
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proposal and the second
proposal, the consideration

186
00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:29,880
would be payable in shares of
party one.

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This is the bit where I might
have some doubt about it because

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I think it could be party one,
because what conditions, What

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00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:38,120
conditions make sense that
you're you would come to the

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00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,680
realisation that it would not be
satisfiable.

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It's, it's pretty fucking like,
you know, it's pretty gonna be

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pretty damn hard to get some
Canadian government approval to,

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00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:51,000
for, for, for Chinese, you know,
corporate to, to acquire.

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00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:52,560
Yeah.
And they were to as as

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00:09:52,560 --> 00:09:54,680
conditions outside of their
control.

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00:09:54,680 --> 00:09:58,480
So that sort of fits in.
Right, those, you know, Canadian

197
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,440
regulatory approvals, maybe you
receive some in principle

198
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:02,720
guidance sort of saying that
there's no way that we would we

199
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,080
would approve, approve this.
But it it makes sense.

200
00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,400
They're a large shareholder.
They've, you know, they've

201
00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:08,760
clearly got a strategic
interest.

202
00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:11,720
Are they, you know, trying to
trying to kind of, you know,

203
00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,360
exercise that.
But the fact that they were the

204
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,520
consideration was going to be in
shares maybe throws me a little

205
00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:20,280
bit because I mean, CGN, they
are they are like they do have

206
00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,200
a, you know, a Hong Kong listed
parent.

207
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:24,880
But you really kind of see that
script sort of used in these

208
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,480
like cross border public public
MNA kind of dynamics.

209
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:31,480
I would have maybe there's some
reason for it, but I would have

210
00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:35,160
thought like, you know, a cash
bid would be like simpler when

211
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,560
you when you got that kind of
dynamic going on.

212
00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:40,360
But maybe there was a reason for
why it was why I was in script.

213
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:45,520
It's not immediately apparent,
but I think I think CGN like was

214
00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,960
pretty advanced in in trying to
acquire fission back in January

215
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:50,400
and that fell over.
That's my theory.

216
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,360
Yep, I'm, I'm pretty, you know,
aligned with your thinking

217
00:10:54,360 --> 00:10:55,760
there.
That's exactly how I read it.

218
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,560
And they, they kind of help you
connect the dots at least

219
00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:01,120
because they put the major
shareholder, the only person who

220
00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,800
has more than 10% of fusion
right above that segment.

221
00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,040
So you kind of primed with CGN
in your mind as you start

222
00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:09,600
reading down.
I also went back and listened to

223
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:13,040
the call that they had when they
first announced this deal.

224
00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,080
And that was the, you know, the,
the, the real arm WAVY

225
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,160
cheerleading deal.
They were very happy about the

226
00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:20,360
deal.
And they got asked the question,

227
00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:22,240
when did, when did talks kind of
start?

228
00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:26,520
And they, they were, you know, a
bit shy on revealing all that

229
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,200
was mentioned in the docs there.
They said they first met in

230
00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:36,160
February of 2024, which is
technically true.

231
00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,280
They mentioned that in the docs,
but I think you know what

232
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,760
they're saying is that's when
they first met face to face

233
00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,440
Paladin and Fission.
That's not when they first

234
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,480
started speaking, because that
they review in the docs started

235
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,600
happening in November The.
CA signed in December.

236
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,920
Yeah, exactly.
So a bit a bit cheeky on

237
00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,320
wording, but yeah.
So I think you know what you

238
00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,600
kind of raised there as well.
Just one last thought, Trev is

239
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,720
very interesting because a lot's
happened in the last year

240
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,760
regarding, regarding the way
Canada acts towards, you know,

241
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,040
particularly Chinese.
It's, it's not necessarily

242
00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,200
explicit in their wording, but
it's Chinese companies that

243
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:16,080
they're kind of targeting.
And when we spoke about this

244
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:17,840
about a couple months ago, they
were putting forward this

245
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:23,000
legislation targeting deals that
is over $1.3 billion in in

246
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,520
value.
And that, you know, this kind of

247
00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,440
relates to the Investment Canada
Act.

248
00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:31,480
And in the documents, Paladins
specifically say that that they

249
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,960
don't need that.
They don't need that specific

250
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:35,680
clearance.
I think they're sort of implying

251
00:12:35,680 --> 00:12:38,360
that they're below that.
But I mean, I think people will

252
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:42,000
remember as well, there was the
deal with Solaris, which was for

253
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:46,080
Zejan to take a 15% stake in
Solaris, which has an asset in

254
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,040
Ecuador.
And that deal got terminated

255
00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:52,200
because they couldn't get it
through the Canadian government.

256
00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,080
So just the wording that you
kind of referenced, I thought it

257
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:56,680
was kind of relevant to, to
bring that up.

258
00:12:56,680 --> 00:13:00,240
Again, the Canadian government
has taken a super hard line.

259
00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,200
And it wouldn't surprise me if
like you say, they'd sounded it

260
00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,600
out and just knew it would be
very hard to get a deal like

261
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:10,160
that up.
But I think that kind of that

262
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,480
kind of brings us to the the
logical question with everything

263
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,120
that's hard of happened today
with CGN trying to stand in the

264
00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:18,480
way of stopping this deal.
Do we actually think they've got

265
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,360
any chance, given the
shareholders have voted in

266
00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:24,160
favour and everything else
that's happened so far, that the

267
00:13:24,160 --> 00:13:25,960
deal could be stopped this late
in the day?

268
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,360
This is this is the money
question, like right, like the

269
00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,440
the very fact that Paladin felt
the need to drop a market

270
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,560
sensitive announcement
yesterday.

271
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,880
Like, you know, the read through
is this, there's something to

272
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,080
this, like, you know, that like,
why is that market sensitive?

273
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,240
If it's, if it's irrelevant,
It's not entirely unusual to

274
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,520
have like some shareholders
that, that oppose the deal.

275
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:47,800
And in this instance, enough
vision shareholders actually

276
00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:51,000
voted in favour for the plan of
arrangement, sort of like to be

277
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:53,800
to become effective.
And, but because Paladin felt

278
00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,720
the need to announce that CGN
opposed it and, and you know,

279
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,320
and vision did as well.
Like I, I think, I think I had

280
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,920
to dive into the information
circular again.

281
00:14:02,560 --> 00:14:06,800
Fuck you.
Like, like, you know, we all

282
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:09,520
know in any deal, there's,
there's a, a bunch of conditions

283
00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:11,320
precedent, right?
And these conditions that get

284
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,240
ticked off 1 by 1 or they get
waived if they can be waived and

285
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,520
that, you know, that process is,
so it leads to the deal becoming

286
00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,880
effective.
The, the unanswered question

287
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,160
that we have, are there any
conditions precedent still

288
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,040
outstanding that CGN could
actually influence to disrupt

289
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,680
this deal?
And so I, I looked in the

290
00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,280
information circular and I'm
scrolling down.

291
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:34,960
I'm scrolling down and check
this right.

292
00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:40,840
So in this bit here, E condition
E dissent rights must not be

293
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,960
exercised by holders of more
than 5% of the fission shares.

294
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,760
So you're probably wondering,
what the hell are dissent

295
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,680
rights?
Well, I'll read.

296
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,960
According to the docs,
registered Fission shareholders,

297
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,040
they have the right to exercise
dissent rights and demand

298
00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:58,200
payment equal to the fair value
of their Fission shares in cash.

299
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,040
If dissent rights properly
exercised in respect of a

300
00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,520
significant number of Fission
shares, then Fission will be

301
00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,840
obliged to make a substantial
cash payment to such dissenting

302
00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,320
shareholders, which could have
an adverse effect on the

303
00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:13,640
combined Company's financial
condition and cash resource.

304
00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:16,800
So.
That is, that's, that's

305
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,760
fascinating, right?
But there is a, there's another

306
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,880
sort of important caveat, which
I'm sure you'll get to which I

307
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:24,680
think we should mention before
we have a little chat about

308
00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,840
whether that is a feasible
outcome.

309
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,800
You know that a, you know, a
Chinese party party would have

310
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,960
gone down that road.
Yeah.

311
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,040
It's, I mean it's like it is
interesting.

312
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,160
So there's this basically the,
the, the condition that, that

313
00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:43,280
you'd have less than 5% of these
of, of shareholders exercising

314
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,000
their descent rights.
I imagine it's a condition that

315
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,120
slipped in there by, by Paladin
because they don't want, they

316
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,040
basically don't want to, you
know, funding surprise where

317
00:15:51,040 --> 00:15:53,160
they, you know, where the merge
code's going to pro forma cash

318
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,760
is going to be more adverse and
than they planned, especially as

319
00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:58,360
they're sort of, you know,
ramping up their own operation

320
00:15:58,360 --> 00:15:59,440
and everything like that.
But.

321
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,040
And what does fair value
actually mean?

322
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:03,560
Who?
Who decides that?

323
00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,160
The the way they describe that
mechanism of Fair value in the

324
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:12,400
docks is, is it's the like
observed that on the the day

325
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,800
prior to the to the shareholder
vote, the business day prior.

326
00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,200
I think so it's basically so I
think, I think it's just to look

327
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:20,680
back on the share price as
opposed to actually like what,

328
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,160
what the independent expert kind
of values things that right.

329
00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,080
But like, you know, there is
some disincentive to, to

330
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:31,320
dissent, right?
Because if you're not a Canadian

331
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,400
tax resident, you have to kind
of cop 25% Canadian withholding

332
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:39,400
tax on that kind of cash, which
is a bit of a dividend And like

333
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,920
to exercise descent rights.
You, you would have had to have

334
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,400
have set as such 2 business days
prior to the to the, to the

335
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,160
meeting as I read it.
And also based on what I read, I

336
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:52,800
think like you're still entitled
to, to vote in that shareholder

337
00:16:52,800 --> 00:16:54,720
vote even if you elect to
exercise your dissent rights.

338
00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:57,440
I'm pretty sure you can do both
those things at the same like,

339
00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:59,680
you know, without kind of
foregoing your right to vote.

340
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:05,640
So, so this is my standing
theory on what's really going on

341
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,960
here and why we're saying, you
know, Paladin and Fission

342
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:13,680
announcement about CGNI think
CGN could be pissed off that

343
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,720
their deal didn't get over the
line.

344
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,880
I reckon they could now be
thrown in the kitchen sink at

345
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:23,119
maybe, you know, disrupting or
agitating the Paladin fission

346
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,000
deal.
I think they've exercised their

347
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,560
dissent rights.
That's my assumption based on

348
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,480
kind of the digging I've done
today.

349
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,640
I think there's probably also a
geopolitical overlay to it all

350
00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,120
as well, right?
Because you can imagine if, if

351
00:17:38,120 --> 00:17:42,520
Paladin acquires fission, then
it would probably also prevent

352
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,120
Paladin from really ever being,
you know, subject to A, to a

353
00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:48,800
takeover by a Chinese entity.
By virtue of the fact that, you

354
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,600
know, it's much harder to get
these yeah, like investment

355
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:55,920
China backed approvals when
you've got like a large portion

356
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,280
of your company value based over
over that way.

357
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,960
I know they've got some Canadian
assets already, but I'm not sure

358
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,280
to what extent that small part
of their portfolio would be.

359
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,760
But that sort of deal.
So it's yeah, I just think all

360
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,040
of that is a is a big factor in
what we're saying with the, the

361
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,680
CGN statement.
That's my my running theory.

362
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,080
Open.
Open to be disproven.

363
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,880
I I think that all kind of
stacks up the point on CGN being

364
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,600
pissed off at Fission.
It makes sense, although you

365
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:26,560
know, that it was kind of clear
if CGN is party one that Fission

366
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:31,000
wanted a, a lift up, you know,
they wanted a, a higher premium.

367
00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:33,920
But it's also kind of the
Canadian government that they

368
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,880
should be pissed off at and not
just Fission, right?

369
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,800
Yeah, Yeah, I'm, I'm certainly
are.

370
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:41,760
Yeah.
And these are strategic assets

371
00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,480
as well, right, in a, in a
market where like, you know,

372
00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:47,280
China does what China does.
Yeah.

373
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,440
I mean they're, they're talking
about 5% of of global uranium

374
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,120
production potentially, you
know, if it if it gets to that

375
00:18:54,120 --> 00:18:55,600
level.
So it's, it's not an

376
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,360
insignificant resource in the
scheme of things.

377
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,720
I'm keen to hear what else you
kind of came to digging up into

378
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,440
the the descent rights.
Well, what if?

379
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:04,600
I think the question is like
what?

380
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,320
What would actually happen if
CGN exercised their descent

381
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,560
rights?
And like, from a deal

382
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,680
perspective, there is this
condition precedent that no more

383
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:16,880
than 5% of the issued shares
exercise their dissent rights.

384
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:21,280
And both Paladin and Vision
explicitly state that CGN holds

385
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,840
11.26%.
So that's a lot more than 5%.

386
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,920
So like, you know, in, in, in
theory it could hold up the

387
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:34,200
deal, but Paladin has the
ability to waive this CPA.

388
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,680
And like, you know, like there's
plenty of incentive to, to waive

389
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,520
the, the CPA as well, I'd
imagine.

390
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,640
But you know, the reason, like,
I think, you know, they're put

391
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,400
in the docks.
Like I said, they, it's, it's,

392
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,520
it's probably, you know, these
protections around like an

393
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:51,280
unwanted kind of kind of funding
scenario, I imagine.

394
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:55,400
And if you just sort of like do
a back of the envelope, what

395
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,640
would, what, what, what around a
cash would probably need to come

396
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,320
out of that, you know, merge
GoPro forma cash that we, we've

397
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,120
talked about, it's probably
about 75,000,000 Canadian

398
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:04,920
dollars that would need to be
stumped up.

399
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,440
And like that probably doesn't.
Kill the deal like you can find

400
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,360
ways to, you know to to sort all
that out, but it might be

401
00:20:11,360 --> 00:20:14,240
frustrating for for.
The phone in the side right.

402
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,520
Yeah.
But if we go back in time, you

403
00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:18,800
know, three months ago when the
deal was announced, that was

404
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,880
that was an even bigger number.
So again, probably the same

405
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,120
outcome like you say there.
But that would have been a real

406
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:26,360
a real prickle for them to work
through.

407
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,680
Yeah, I, I, I mean, I think
yeah.

408
00:20:29,120 --> 00:20:33,400
And I, and look, I, it's not
like the shit you look at the

409
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,200
relative share prices and I
don't think that the, the, the

410
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,840
pricing in a like break in the
deal here, you know, Fusion sort

411
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,400
of still trading a bit of a
small discount to the implied

412
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,040
paladin value per the exchange
ratio in, in the deal.

413
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,520
So I think like, you know, for
now, it's just a bit of a let's

414
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,560
watch and see.
For all I know, mate, party one

415
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:54,880
could have been someone other
than CGN.

416
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,520
And for all I know, there could
even have been, you know,

417
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:02,000
another, another condition
resident that CGN thinks that

418
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:05,880
they can, you know, still have
any influence on as per the,

419
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,760
the, the conditions of the deal
as well.

420
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,640
But on my skin read, I just I
didn't see any.

421
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,680
Actually, Trev, do you mind just
flashing up that list of CPS

422
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,000
again?
Yeah.

423
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,880
I'll put it up.
Yeah, actually, right down the

424
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,520
bottom.
What about clause M?

425
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:29,480
Ah yes, I'll read it out.
Paladin promises to use DSI

426
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,560
bolts in the future development
of Fission's PLS Underground

427
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:34,920
project.
I'm I'm genuinely surprised that

428
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,720
they are now actually putting
these in as a condition

429
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,240
president like these multi
jurisdictional public M and a

430
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:41,440
transactions.
Wow.

431
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,440
But I mean that.
Shouldn't be surprised mate.

432
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:45,520
Shouldn't be surprised.
It really just goes to show you

433
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,040
how fundamentally important DSI
bolts are to the value of these

434
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,720
underground mining projects.
I, I am, I am surprised, but I'm

435
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,320
kind of not at the same time,
JD, because it kind of makes

436
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,560
complete sense.
You, you want to preserve all of

437
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,880
the project value when you you
sell a company, and the only way

438
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,560
you can do that with an
undeveloped underground

439
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,560
background project is to make
them promise they're going to

440
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,200
put DSI underground bolts into
it.

441
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,040
They've got the best bolts and
the best mesh, safe, reliable,

442
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,080
faster, and just better frankly.
Very clever drafting from the

443
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,560
the the paladin and lawyers.
They're very, very clever.

444
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800
Good boy, good start.
That was one.

445
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:23,440
Was next Gen instead.
That'll be funny.

446
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:26,880
Surprise.
Maybe.

447
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,960
Maybe we'll find out.
Yeah.

448
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:30,720
All right, let's talk about a
they like.

449
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,360
It more equity, so it would make
sense.

450
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:38,680
You just have to get one more
punch in all right, let's let's

451
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,120
bring it a bit closer to home
and talk about some more M and a

452
00:22:41,120 --> 00:22:44,720
rumours.
We we obviously all all saw the

453
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,920
the article in the Australian
talking about IGO eyeing off

454
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,560
Rio's winners.
So that's one we chucked in the

455
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,200
director special.
If you haven't signed up, get on

456
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,600
to it, but I think it's worth a
chat.

457
00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,800
The idea of IGIO going after,
you know, this type of asset,

458
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,000
obviously copper is one of the
key focuses that came out of the

459
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,240
back of the strategy day.
We we spoke about that last

460
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,960
week.
One of their pillars was copper

461
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,960
as well as lithium.
But we, you know, we went into

462
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,960
detail on the difficulties
surrounding the structure in

463
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,360
which they'd have to approach
any lithium MNA.

464
00:23:18,360 --> 00:23:21,520
So it's no surprise that we're
going to see these sorts of

465
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,080
rumours and it's kind of
coincidental that we did mention

466
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,000
we knew last week as well.
Obviously we had a great couple

467
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,160
segments on great land.
They're picking up Telfer.

468
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,400
We knew it's about 300
kilometres southeast of Port

469
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,680
Hedland and about 130 kilometres
north of Telfer.

470
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,600
So it it's in and around that,
that Patterson province.

471
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,880
And of course, there's the the
other connection with Ivan

472
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,600
Villa, being a former Rio
employee, shouldn't be surprised

473
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,320
that he's looking at one of the
assets.

474
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,400
Sorry, I really.
What do you What all comes

475
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,040
together?
Like when it was one of those

476
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,680
ones in Rio's portfolio you hear
come up every now and again, but

477
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,160
because it's like a kind of
like, oh damn, it's just, you

478
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,680
know, discovery inside a major.
We kind of don't really know

479
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,320
heaps about it, but what could
you dig up about when I?

480
00:24:08,120 --> 00:24:10,600
Mate I I did a bit of digging
and it was really interesting.

481
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,120
It was probably a bit of a
rabbit hole adjacent to the real

482
00:24:13,120 --> 00:24:16,680
story of IGO and what they're
looking at, but I thought I'd go

483
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,080
through a bit of a history on on
Windows.

484
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,840
So as we said, the the latest
news is that Rio is seeking

485
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,600
native title approvals, that
they're seeking this for a kind

486
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,600
of big open pit operation.
And obviously the approvals

487
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,960
include everything amongst the
open pit and all the other

488
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,360
infrastructure around it that
you need in that quite isolated

489
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,760
part of the world.
So environmental application

490
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:44,640
that also been put forward in
late 2023 to to go with that the

491
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,400
the latest numbers which came
out early last year on Winnow

492
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:53,520
was a mineral resource of 720
million tonnes at .4% copper,

493
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:58,640
.34 grammes per tonne gold and
2.2 grammes per tonne silver.

494
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,480
So of the seven, 2500 million
tonnes is inferred and the rest

495
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,440
is indicated.
But to go back in time a bit,

496
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,880
this is where I found it quite
interesting because like you

497
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:11,400
say, Trev, you don't often hear
a lot about these projects,

498
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,040
these kind of exploration
discoveries within majors.

499
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,800
But it was pretty interesting to
go back to to 2019 and you see

500
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,280
the sort of 15 page.
And there was another one that

501
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:26,440
came a couple months later,
announcements specific to Winnu.

502
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,400
I mean, I, I can't really
remember off the top of my head

503
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,960
the last time I saw an
announcement about one

504
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:36,000
exploration project from a major
like Rio.

505
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,200
So they were pretty excited.
Yeah, exactly.

506
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,480
They were bad people.
An expiration update out for Oh

507
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,760
damn last year for my I.
I think you might be right.

508
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,360
Yeah.
I mean, that's, you know, this

509
00:25:48,360 --> 00:25:52,880
is kind of 22 examples in half a
decade that kind of come to mind

510
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:54,720
that there must be a few others
out there as well.

511
00:25:55,120 --> 00:25:57,400
But they sort of headline it
with copper gold discovered in

512
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,680
the Paterson Province.
And I remember at the time, you

513
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,520
know, everyone got quite
excited.

514
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:05,920
They were, they were working
hard at this that 11 rigs at

515
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,840
least on site when when the
numbers first started coming out

516
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,480
in June of that year, 2019, they
come up with another

517
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,880
announcement again purely on
Winnu and then by July 2020 they

518
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,520
come out with a maiden resource.
Now this was 500 million tonnes

519
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:27,000
at .45% copper equivalent, with
a higher grade component of 200

520
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,320
million tonnes at .7% copper
equivalent.

521
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,000
It kind of kicked off this
whole, you know, rush to find

522
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:34,720
stuff in the Paterson Province.
Do you remember that?

523
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,000
Yeah.
Is that a big deal back then?

524
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,600
Yeah.
Well, you had Winnu, you had

525
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,760
have and that was sort of like
discovered in relative proximity

526
00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,560
and everyone's like.
Oh, you have a couple of the

527
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,640
layer of cover.
There's heaps of stuff there,

528
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,440
yeah. 100% you have all these
other juniors that pop up when I

529
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,520
was doing all my Googling names
like Antipa can say Fireman's

530
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,560
and everything and they're
popping up and every sort of

531
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,840
announcement from the time
references Winoo or it

532
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,880
references heavier on or you
know, in the in the windows.

533
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,480
Style mineralization and things
like that.

534
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,920
Exactly.
So I was trying to actually get

535
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,880
to the so you know, answer the
question of how much have Rio

536
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,880
spent And obviously they they
break out expiration, but never

537
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,280
at a a kind of individual
expiration asset.

538
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:19,960
But I'll look for the exact same
question.

539
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,960
By the way, I didn't tell you,
but I I even asked Perplexity.

540
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:25,960
AI got nowhere.
Yeah.

541
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,400
So, but it does help because
they were, they were sort of

542
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,120
spending in 2019, they spent 600
million bucks and it was mainly

543
00:27:34,120 --> 00:27:37,720
split across 3 projects.
We knew being one of them.

544
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,360
Of course, you've got all this
other stuff.

545
00:27:39,360 --> 00:27:42,040
So it's hard, but my guess would
be hundreds of millions of

546
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,760
dollars or somewhere in and
around that.

547
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,920
I mean for over a couple years,
there are 200 people on site.

548
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,520
You can, you can see on their
website, it's quite a schmick

549
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:54,680
setup for an exploration site.
They've got at least 12 rigs

550
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,680
churning away over 125
kilometres drilled.

551
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,400
This went on for quite a while.
Obviously, we were in that

552
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,880
period where prices for
everything just really, really

553
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,440
spiked, so things weren't cheap.
So, I mean, yeah, like we kind

554
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,280
of say we're not gonna get a
definitive answer on that, but

555
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:16,800
they spent a lot of money trying
to, you know, define this.

556
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,840
And I think by 2020 you get to
the answer.

557
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,400
I think there's 120 man camp
there.

558
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,040
So it's like, I don't know if
they preemptively built that in

559
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,800
preparation for mine or if they
were literally just like heaps

560
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,280
of people out there drilling the
Jesus out of it.

561
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,400
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, at at times, I'm sure

562
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,640
it'd have been many more
actually, like some of the some

563
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,720
of the numbers I'd seen there
were, there was a lot of work,

564
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:38,960
you know, not just geos, but
everything you need to kind of

565
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,720
define this thing.
Because even in the 2020, the

566
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,760
2019 annual report, they talk
about chucking this into

567
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,000
production in 2023.
And of course that, you know,

568
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,920
that kind of anticipates
construction starting a couple

569
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,440
years earlier, which is
lightning pace.

570
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,160
But here we.
Are in 2024 and this they're

571
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:01,240
still in the process of, you
know, approvals, which is

572
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,440
probably not a coincidence.
Yeah.

573
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,880
And, you know, the, the key, you
know, elephant in the room that

574
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,480
we haven't mentioned is Duke and
Gorge that happened in and

575
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:13,880
around this period.
And the the impact that that had

576
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,160
on, you know, the, the kind of
whole industry in that region.

577
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,080
But in particular on on Rio
Tinto, being able to get

578
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,920
approvals and develop a project
was enormous.

579
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,160
You know, stepping that aside
for a moment, I still think when

580
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:31,880
it was far too small to be a
classic Rio style project, but

581
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:36,440
Duke and Gorge put everything,
you know, on ice for a moment.

582
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:41,080
And one of the other reasons why
they were trying to go so, you

583
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:43,880
know, fast at this is 'cause
they were having hold UPS at

584
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,840
pretty much every other copper
asset that they have that

585
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,800
LaGrange in, in Peru, which they
kind of divested.

586
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:56,600
They have resolution in America.
That's been yeah, exactly.

587
00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:02,640
Oh, you Togoi was having delays.
So Kennicott as well needed

588
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,160
additional investment and
everything.

589
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,520
So they were, they were looking
to add copper cause, you know, I

590
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,320
mean, it's kind of the same in
2024.

591
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,800
Everyone's excited about copper.
That was no different back then.

592
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,200
They wanted to add copper to the
portfolio.

593
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,760
So they started kicking around
the idea of 7 million tonnes per

594
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,600
annum.
These were numbers they put

595
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,400
forward in an environmental
application back then.

596
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,000
I don't think they're talking
about a processing plant there

597
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,320
that, that, that's a mining rate
which they're talking about.

598
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:32,000
So it's kind of hard to gauge,
but the, the great JS Jacks said

599
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,120
at the time we're looking to
stage gate the project starting

600
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:40,080
small, allowing optionality for
growth in time, which is, you

601
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:43,440
know, it's, it's something we
kind of hear about in the Andes

602
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,120
with likes of Philo and these
sorts of things.

603
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,440
But the, the first stage is
already so enormous there,

604
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,440
whereas this isn't really an
enormous start when you're

605
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,280
talking about mining 7 million
tonnes per annum for the likes

606
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,600
of Rio.
And to to bring that kind of

607
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,520
full circle, in February of this
year, Rio say they're looking at

608
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,960
alternative development models
and partnerships.

609
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,040
So clearly I'm looking to to get
someone in that.

610
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,960
That was a bit of a rabbit hole
away from why IGO might be

611
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,240
interested in this asset.
But I think it kind of brings us

612
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,760
to a point to have a bit of a
discussion about why IGO would

613
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,960
be keen, whether we think
they're keen, whether they could

614
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,240
do things like the permitting
and all those sorts of things

615
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,720
better given their smaller size,
them not being Rio.

616
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,840
That that's a point, right.
Like if you know, I, I think a

617
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:32,840
big, a big part of the like hold
UPS in, in some of these

618
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,880
processes from a, you know, like
an approvals perspective is, is

619
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:37,520
like, you know, the early
engagement with traditional

620
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:41,680
owners and like like early
negotiations like in, in regards

621
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,000
to that.
And if you're, if you're like

622
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,840
negotiating with Rio Tinto
versus if you're negotiating

623
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,720
with like a smaller, more nimble
kind of like mining company,

624
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,960
it's just going to be so much
harder to get to a sort of a

625
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,320
sensible outcome, you know what
I mean?

626
00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:03,480
Like I just, I just think it's a
much tougher task to to get

627
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,640
there.
And we're seeing it time and

628
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,680
time again in in other
commodities as well that have

629
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,040
been spat out by the majors
because it's not, you know, a

630
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,320
natural fit for for their
portfolio.

631
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:18,560
And then a more, you know, say
like a mid tier picks it up and

632
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,560
Oh my God, all of a sudden
there's this discovery, that

633
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:25,160
discovery, this announcement has
been done, this agreement, this

634
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,160
permit, like just because they
can just operate so differently.

635
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,640
And this is not just approvals,
this is just, you know,

636
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,000
holistically drilling, mining
everything.

637
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:41,080
So I wouldn't be it.
It makes a lot of sense to be

638
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:45,200
outside of the Rio portfolio as
far as who it naturally sits

639
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,080
with best.
As far as a a mid tier type of

640
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,600
mine, I'm not sure.
I mean, audio's obviously

641
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,160
expressed an interest to get
into copper, but again, whether

642
00:32:54,160 --> 00:33:00,280
it makes sense specifically for
them, I'm not sure unless it's

643
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:04,040
they're looking at it with more
of a longer term lens to sort of

644
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,680
progressively build it out.
You'd have to right ally the the

645
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:12,160
soonest this would be in
production is 2027 and even for

646
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:15,240
that things would need to go
their way quite.

647
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,600
And if you know, that might be
even too soon to say because by

648
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,960
the time a transaction would be
done in early work starting and

649
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:26,040
everything, 2027 would be a real
push to have this thing mining.

650
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,520
And I mean, unfortunately we
can't even really talk about

651
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,520
what this would kind of cost
IGO.

652
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:36,240
It I I genuinely don't really
know where to start on that one

653
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:39,240
because Rio had just hasn't
released that many numbers.

654
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,960
They haven't released a scoping
study or anything really.

655
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,320
I mean, I'm sure IGO would be
able to do a fair bit of Ding

656
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,640
and kind of put some scenarios
around it themselves.

657
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,480
Obviously get put in a data room
and everything and be able to

658
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:57,080
see some numbers, but whether
this is something IGO would kind

659
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:01,080
of bite off themselves I I would
be kind of sceptical on.

660
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,160
What do you guys think?
Yeah, At the end of the day,

661
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,960
like I think the strategy date
IGO, they, they basically talked

662
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,760
about being keen to do
partnerships in, in copper like

663
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,120
similar to what they've done in
lithium.

664
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,600
And you know, they're OK with
having a, a minority stake in an

665
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:19,400
asset.
They're OK with having a

666
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,080
minority stake in a copper asset
if it's overseas, if that's

667
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,760
where the the ore bodies are.
I think like from a practical

668
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,719
perspective, like IGO is
probably one of those like

669
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,440
bidders in any kind of copper
sale process that is, you know,

670
00:34:34,639 --> 00:34:38,040
probably going to be motivated
to to pay top dollar more than

671
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,159
kind of anyone else at the
moment kind of because they have

672
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:42,320
to have to you know, and.
Someone you want in the data.

673
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,840
Room, you know, and if the bite
size is too big, then, you know,

674
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:48,719
they might sort of find a way to
to to team up with someone else.

675
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,920
But it also kind of depends on,
you know, how much the project

676
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:52,400
is.
Does radio actually want to part

677
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,040
part ways with and like, what's
the the realistic funding

678
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,320
timeline?
Would would I, Joe shareholders

679
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:01,040
be thrilled if, if, if I Joe,
you know, found its way to

680
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,240
owning a minority stake?
I honestly don't know.

681
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,560
I, I imagine a lot of that has
to do with like, what are the

682
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,640
actual realistic like timelines
here?

683
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,080
Because like, there's just that
could be anything at the moment.

684
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,520
But would there be better off
paying top dollar for something

685
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,200
that's a lot closer to being in
production?

686
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,760
Well, maybe I think another cool
thing I.

687
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:21,720
Just actually the.
Best.

688
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,440
Thing that they could.
Be buying there's not a lot of

689
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,560
options out there, you know, and
like buying stuff from the

690
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:29,000
majors is like not a bad
strategy and most of the time

691
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,320
things turn out alright for the
mid tiers who buy stuff off the

692
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,960
majors.
But audio is also kind of in

693
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:36,880
that like they could do some
funk.

694
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:42,160
There's a lot of like, you know,
big low grade kind of copper

695
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,160
undeveloped projects out there
in pretty good jurisdictions

696
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,440
that, you know, are 100% owned
by a listed company where IGO

697
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,720
could do something like funky
and just just start farming into

698
00:35:52,720 --> 00:35:56,200
them and and end up with, you
know, like 100% ownership

699
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,320
because they like, you know,
committed to to fund X percent

700
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,600
of any initial CapEx.
So whatever it is like things

701
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,400
like that could actually see
things kind of getting, getting

702
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,640
yeah built here.
So sort of think of what what Oz

703
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,760
Minerals did when, when they
were getting hold of West

704
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,560
Musgrave, they they basically
this, you know, initial 50% with

705
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:18,760
Cassani ended up taking over
100% Cassani.

706
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,960
But I could see IGO kind of
stage its way into into copper

707
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,760
by doing something kind of like
that that, you know, the Osman

708
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,000
rules sort of playbook with with
W Musgrave.

709
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,000
Yeah, I think something like
that could, you know, if you're

710
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,360
trying to forecast a future
workout, OK, in a in a world

711
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,640
where lithium starts to recover
in time and they can have cash

712
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:42,480
flow start to help them out from
one hand to the other, that

713
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:45,200
could be something.
The other thing that sticks out

714
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:49,000
to me guys, when I'm thinking
about, we know big low grade

715
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:54,640
copper projects is water.
Straight away, Greenland's

716
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,040
equipment comes to mind.
They're in WA no less.

717
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,560
Just looking at the Greenland's
website, you can see turnkey

718
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:04,080
mine water management.
These guys will tailor a

719
00:37:04,240 --> 00:37:07,080
solution for anyone out there.
They'll design it, they'll

720
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,520
manufacture it, install it,
maintain it.

721
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,520
The bespoke answer to any
questions you've got out there.

722
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,040
I mean, look at the stuff they
do mine underground dewatering,

723
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:20,040
open pit dewatering, mine, water
transfers, water bore services,

724
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:23,320
dust suppression, aquifer
reinjection, solar pump systems,

725
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,400
pond lining.
There is not a thing in water

726
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,000
that these guys don't do.
So I wouldn't sleep on it.

727
00:37:29,240 --> 00:37:31,600
We've got Caleb's details in the
show notes.

728
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:33,600
Give him a call, give him an
email.

729
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,360
Go Greenlands.
Go Greenlands mate, they're in

730
00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:39,320
water province after all.
We know there's no, there's some

731
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,560
aquifers you got to, you got to,
you know, have a solution for.

732
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,840
They are specifically mentioned
in the in the resource and

733
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:50,440
reserve statements by Rio Tinto.
We know they're down there.

734
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,320
You're going to have to solve
that one sooner or later.

735
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:53,840
Rio should just give them a
call.

736
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:56,600
I'm excited, Ally, because
you're going to you're going to

737
00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:00,440
talk about a hot topic at the
moment, gold, undeveloped gold.

738
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,440
I think there's been this like
big theme of, of like, you know,

739
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,960
the, the gold genies are getting
a bit of love, but the, the real

740
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,960
value is probably, you know, in,
in Africa, I think there's

741
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,160
always value in Africa, but you
got to pay for the risk as well,

742
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:17,680
but you got to cut the risk.
But I'm keen to keen to know,

743
00:38:17,720 --> 00:38:20,960
like you've gone on a bit of a
journey to look for, look for

744
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,920
value in the, the African kind
of gold listed companies.

745
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,960
What do you what did you find?
Yeah.

746
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,400
So, no, I'll look in light of
all the, you know, M&A activity,

747
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:35,320
the gold price go nuts and you
know, off the back we just sort

748
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:38,120
of did some similar work in the
ASX space.

749
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:42,640
But and that I think the result
of that work sort of left me

750
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:47,600
thinking surely there's, you
know, some more, you know,

751
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:51,560
better asset, better assets and
better value out there outside

752
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:55,560
of the ASX as well.
So I've jumped across the Indian

753
00:38:55,560 --> 00:39:01,600
Ocean to Africa and I've done a,
a pretty rough and dirty screen

754
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,040
to sort of remind myself of
actually what is out there.

755
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,240
And for all the companies
listening, this is based on the

756
00:39:08,240 --> 00:39:10,320
following criteria.
So don't get, you know,

757
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,080
Chakanana if you weren't
included.

758
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,320
So I've looked at gold
development assets based in

759
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,160
Africa that have at least
1,000,000 ounces in resources.

760
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,600
I feel this is probably a fair
line in the sand to draw to sort

761
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:29,320
of warrant the the risk appetite
that development asset has to be

762
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:31,920
their primary focus.
So like not a, you know,

763
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:37,360
development asset, a portfolio
of producing mines, a market cap

764
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:41,920
of the least Aussie 20 million
and listed on IS XL, SE or T6.

765
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:46,640
And again, just a quick screen.
So souls to anyone that's been

766
00:39:46,640 --> 00:39:49,120
missed.
But out of all that, I could

767
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:52,920
only find 11 companies.
I was really surprised.

768
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,520
I thought that would be probably
double that.

769
00:39:57,280 --> 00:40:00,600
So there's four on the A6,
there's Predictive, Tarako,

770
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:06,040
we're into Barney, and seven
pretty much all on the TSA.

771
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,280
One of these got an LSA listing
as well.

772
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:13,920
Montage, Thor, Pasafino, New
Core, Long Core, Rossann and

773
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,200
Desert now.
Very interesting ally.

774
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:20,240
If you want the full details of
my screen, you'll have to make

775
00:40:20,240 --> 00:40:22,320
sure you sign up to the director
special.

776
00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,400
There'll be a nice little table
just sort of summarising all the

777
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:30,640
key stats of these projects in
tomorrow morning's edition, so

778
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,280
link is in the show notes to
sign up for that one.

779
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,320
Moneymind.com.
Moneymind.com.

780
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:37,960
So what, what, what, what about
these?

781
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:39,800
Like what do you find when you
look at these assets?

782
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,320
I mean, there's a lot of M&A
activity in West Africa and it

783
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:46,280
kind of makes sense because like
there's a pretty big discount on

784
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,640
like some of these answers in
the ground.

785
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:54,480
And often times a lot of these
established miners, they, they

786
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,920
backed themselves to be able to
be able to build mines and

787
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:00,160
create value because they're the
answers that they can acquire

788
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,240
relatively cheap.
Yeah, and and extract so much

789
00:41:03,240 --> 00:41:06,360
more cash flow from them than
perhaps compared against some of

790
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:09,680
their Aussie peers chose.
So let's have a look at some of

791
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:16,080
the ASX names so predictive.
We've already covered that in in

792
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,280
a lot of detail in a episode a
few weeks ago.

793
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:24,520
So they've got a 5.4 million oz
project called Bank and in

794
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:29,160
Guinea, but as a refresher, 3
1/2 billion market cap, African

795
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:35,160
gold producer Perseus recently
took a 19.9% stake in Predictive

796
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,320
which cost them, you know,
around 100 billion bucks.

797
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,760
Aussie.
The exploitation permit, which

798
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:45,280
is basically a mining permit for
Bank and is pretty imminent.

799
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,800
And I think we'll we all pretty
much know what's going to happen

800
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:53,080
next with that one.
Interestingly, Perseus could

801
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:56,440
have spent literally the same
amount and that's, you know,

802
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:00,080
accounting for a pretty chunky M
and a premium to acquire the

803
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:07,120
whole of 55 mil market cap to
Barney, which has a just over 2

804
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:11,120
million oz gold project in Mali
called Kubota.

805
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,520
But it's Mali, it's Mali.
Ali and Mali's been out of

806
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:17,520
favour thanks to the likes of
some ASX list of dreadfuls.

807
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,840
Yeah.
Oh, and look, there's been a, a

808
00:42:19,920 --> 00:42:24,320
lot of that arguably is quite
company specific to them.

809
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:28,120
And look, there has been a fair
bit of, you know, you know,

810
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,800
conflict and wars and things
like that in Mali as well as

811
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:34,000
which might sort of, you know,
frighten some.

812
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,440
Apparently the southern Mali,
which is to be honest, where

813
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:42,080
most of these, including Tabani,
most of the sort of gold mining

814
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:44,640
operations are like, you know,
the barracks, the BT golds, the

815
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:48,200
Perseus's, all that is a lot
more stable.

816
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,480
And, and I didn't realise, but
Marley is actually Africa's

817
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,440
third biggest gold producer and
they've actually recently

818
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,040
implemented a new mining code a
couple of months ago.

819
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,880
And we've seen a few producers
and developers sort of come out

820
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:05,760
with announcements around that
and how that applies to their

821
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,160
sort of projects specifically.
I do find that really

822
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,200
interesting how you know Perseus
has operations that resolutes

823
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,720
got operations there, but the
Perseus strategies are probably

824
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,160
I think they intentionally try
and diversify their country risk

825
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,360
by having operations in.
A little bit everywhere.

826
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:23,040
In separate countries rather
than like concentrate them.

827
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,360
But yeah, I do find that
interesting.

828
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,880
Just a value discrepancy versus
like a predictive even all Corp,

829
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,280
which of course, you know, end
up acquiring 100% off like they

830
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:34,320
were like, you know, they'll,
they'll both they weren't, they

831
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:37,960
weren't at big discounts to NAV,
you know, those sort of implied

832
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:39,800
investments.
I think the other thing as well,

833
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:43,520
which again, this is probably an
area of the world I'm still

834
00:43:43,520 --> 00:43:47,880
learning a lot more about, is
just appreciating there's, yes,

835
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:51,840
there's a, you know, there's the
country, but then there's, yeah,

836
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,840
where in that country you are as
well is arguably even even more

837
00:43:56,840 --> 00:43:59,160
important, right?
That's so true, it kind of makes

838
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:01,120
sense when you even it's related
to Australia.

839
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,800
Like like you know if everyone
just thought Australia's the

840
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:05,280
same.
Like imagine trying to explain

841
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,360
the difference between like
building a mine in Vic.

842
00:44:07,720 --> 00:44:10,600
Versus WA, no, it's so, it's so
true.

843
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:15,280
And actually Tibani put out a
nice little table sort of confit

844
00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:22,320
comparing rather the Mali sort
of mining code that's just come

845
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:25,240
out against sort of other W
African mining codes.

846
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:29,000
So it all looks sort of
reasonably in line as far as the

847
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:32,400
sort of the free carried
interest and the sort of

848
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,240
additional participation levels
they can do there well.

849
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:41,080
The fact that there is, yeah,
this I imagine, I imagine Mali

850
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:43,040
has come out and, and provided
more guidance.

851
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,640
And the fact that they've
provided more guidance about

852
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:47,840
like what these economic kind of
stakes are going to be, it's

853
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:49,240
positive.
It's like, at least you have

854
00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:52,440
like, you know, certainty as
someone who's looking to

855
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,800
allocate capital into a country
as opposed to like, uncertainty.

856
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,800
Yeah, no, absolutely.
And I mean, bringing it back to

857
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:01,480
sort of to Tabani itself, I
mean, they've got a, just like I

858
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,560
said before, just over 2 million
oz resource.

859
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,280
And the reason I find it
interesting is it's largely

860
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:13,160
oxide.
It's 90% indicated and it's free

861
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:16,320
milling.
This is like a miner's dream in

862
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:20,840
my opinion.
Like even as in Australia, like

863
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:24,800
where, where do you say those
sort of sort of stats wrapped

864
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,760
around a project?
It's quite unusual.

865
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,280
Yeah, you're only going to
really see numbers like that in

866
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,320
places that have been harder to
access historically, right?

867
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:38,480
Anything like that in in WA
would have been mined 100 years

868
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:39,600
ago.
Exactly.

869
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,440
I reckon Tower Hill's got
similar stats mate.

870
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:45,120
Under the railway.
Under the.

871
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:46,480
Railway.
You could have joined it from

872
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:50,720
both sides.
And look, so that look that

873
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:56,000
we're working on an updated DFS
on on Kubota now that's going to

874
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,200
come out later this year.
And they've got some pretty

875
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,880
heavy hitting instos on the
register paradises there,

876
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:05,560
Nearers there, and they sort of
indicate there's almost half the

877
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,440
registers comprised of instos,
so.

878
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,200
But but no strategic.
So now it's kind.

879
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:13,320
Of no sort of corporate
strategics from from what we can

880
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:21,160
say compare that against Weir
Weir gold, Coco Seb in Namibia.

881
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:25,840
Now they've got a pretty similar
sized resource, 2.1 million oz

882
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:29,000
at one gramme.
It's a mix of oxide and fresh.

883
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:31,840
It's all inferred as at this
stage.

884
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:33,760
A mix of oxide and fresh.
What about the transition?

885
00:46:34,720 --> 00:46:37,160
Yeah, I'm not sure.
There's a bit of that in there

886
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:38,200
too, probably.
A little bit of.

887
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:43,440
That recovery physically.
But even like the MET work that

888
00:46:43,440 --> 00:46:45,760
was sort of included a part of
their, the resource update

889
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,520
indicated, you know, pretty
standard gravity and CIL

890
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,960
recoveries of 92%.
But the thing I found

891
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:56,680
interesting is why is Weia 3
times market cap of Tabani?

892
00:46:56,680 --> 00:47:02,280
Is it is Namibia perhaps
perceived as not as a risky, you

893
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,080
know, jurisdiction compared to
Mali?

894
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:09,800
Is there a bit of a management
premium MNA sort of probability

895
00:47:10,160 --> 00:47:13,440
dynamic in play?
For those who don't know, the

896
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:16,040
chairman of Weir is Joseph
Oragi.

897
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:22,320
So he's a ex Cinnamon fame.
Andrew Pardi is a Ned, He's also

898
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:26,280
of ex Cinnamon fame.
And the current MD of PDI

899
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,440
Predictive and their major
shareholders that we are are

900
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:35,680
capital DI and BPM investments.
So these are groups that are

901
00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:41,680
sort of LinkedIn with Jamie
Boynton, who sold basically that

902
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:45,720
those groups sold their stakes
in predictive to Percy's not too

903
00:47:45,720 --> 00:47:48,920
long ago.
Yeah, I think that M and a point

904
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:53,640
is, is certainly probably why on
the on the market cap front,

905
00:47:54,280 --> 00:48:00,080
pretty sure it was last year you
kind of had like Dundee kind of

906
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,760
going.
I think it was Dundee was trying

907
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,760
to acquire this Twin Hills
project or Aseno at the same

908
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:09,240
time as this like Chinese group,
which was not initially named.

909
00:48:10,240 --> 00:48:12,400
So I, I think you'd end up
getting gold up by the Chinese

910
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:16,160
at a, at a pretty decent price.
So there's that real recent

911
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,360
precedent.
Namibia like it's kind of

912
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,000
Chinese investment, you know,
like there's, it's all through

913
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,760
it and you've got a really
relative like a really recent

914
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,000
precedent of a, of a healthy
kind of like corporate outcome

915
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:29,400
there where shareholders end up
going to get in cash.

916
00:48:29,720 --> 00:48:32,400
Yeah, absolutely.
And you could sort of argue

917
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,400
quite similarly for as far as
that management permit M and I

918
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,200
probability dynamic for Tarraco
Gold.

919
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:45,080
So the MD there, Justin Tremaine
has done a lot of deals of the

920
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:48,240
past at his previous roles.
He was the MD at Excel, which

921
00:48:48,240 --> 00:48:51,520
got taken out by Perseus.
He has MD at Renaissance, which

922
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,760
ultimately got taken out by
Emerald Endeavour Mining is a 6%

923
00:48:55,760 --> 00:49:00,320
shareholder of Tarraco.
And just for context, so they've

924
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,000
got two and a half million
ounces in sort of the mid one

925
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:08,040
grammes a FEMA in in Cote
d'Ivoire and now that's a maiden

926
00:49:08,040 --> 00:49:12,680
jerk resource that was generated
less than six months from when

927
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:17,760
Taraka bought this asset.
It's 60% indicated and it's on a

928
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,240
a granted mining permit and
they're drilling pretty hard at

929
00:49:21,240 --> 00:49:24,920
the minute and they're they've
themselves about a 200 mil mark

930
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:28,640
cap at the minute.
So another interesting Aussie

931
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:29,960
one there.
Yeah.

932
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:34,960
Or Endeavour at 6%, like that's
yeah, like probably.

933
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,120
How about the Canadians ally the
the other ones you mentioned

934
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:40,840
there?
They're ones that probably fly

935
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,440
under the radar for for myself
and a few of the money miners

936
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:44,360
too.
Yeah.

937
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:47,320
So we'll do a bit of a rapid
fire on some of the Canadians

938
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:50,640
so, so montage.
So they've again they were sort

939
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:55,160
of one of the bigger ones in
that sort of screening list.

940
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:58,920
They've got the Cone, a project
in Cote d'Ivoire, 5.3 million

941
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,680
oz, around a 700 mil market cap
company.

942
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,400
So yeah, PDI Montage has sort of
got the two beers resource bases

943
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,640
in this group.
But as far as Perseus is

944
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,520
concerned, it seems like they've
picked their horse.

945
00:50:13,720 --> 00:50:17,680
And the reason I say this is
Perseus actually had a around a

946
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:21,120
10% stake in Montage which it
picked up through its

947
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:25,400
acquisition of Orca a few years
ago, but sold that stake down

948
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:30,440
last month to fund their brand
new position in Predictive.

949
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,320
But not to worry, they just did
a strategic placement a couple

950
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:39,320
of months ago to Xijin who now
holds just under 10% of Montage.

951
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:43,720
And the London family is also
quite heavy into Montage.

952
00:50:43,720 --> 00:50:47,000
They as part of at the same time
as that transaction, they

953
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:50,600
increase their stake to 19.9%.
There's even Barrick on the

954
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,400
register too.
Yes, so did see that on the

955
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:56,160
website there too.
And that's like, yeah, it's

956
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,680
actually really interesting when
you say the, the like the like

957
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,480
in in Africa, at least, you can
still try and elicit a potential

958
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,480
bidding war between like a
western minor and A and a

959
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,040
Chinese entity.
Whereas like you just rarely

960
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:12,280
ever see the, the interest from
the Chinese investors for

961
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,280
obvious reasons in like an
Australian asset, totally

962
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,280
different.
But like that, that's where you

963
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,280
as a, as a shareholder would get
super excited.

964
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:21,320
It's like literally watching
like a, a bidding will play out

965
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,520
which you know, Cardinal
shareholders.

966
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:25,520
Got.
To watch with the never forget.

967
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:27,800
Chinese and the Russians, right?
And like that stuff can still

968
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:31,040
kind of happen in with, with all
these African assets.

969
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,600
And heck, for, for the sake of
our podcast commentary, I hope

970
00:51:33,720 --> 00:51:37,200
some of that stuff does happen.
I think at at montage, I got the

971
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,040
ex sort of in some, some of the
ex endeavour execs running the

972
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:43,880
show there.
And I think like commercial

973
00:51:43,880 --> 00:51:47,960
production 2027 average reserve
grade 0.72 grammes per tonne

974
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,920
probably seems low, but it's
it's the it's the lowest strip

975
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:55,400
ratio which gets excited.
It's like one 1.18 and hence the

976
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:57,360
plethora of strategics on the
register.

977
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:00,360
Now that cheques out there also
got long core.

978
00:52:00,360 --> 00:52:03,760
So they're sort of the next
biggest project on that list.

979
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:09,320
They have about 4 million oz at
the Inbo project in the DRC, the

980
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:14,280
lovely DRC and so and the market
cap comes down markedly about 60

981
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:17,760
million Canadian.
Their their, their three year

982
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:23,720
old PA shows are like a 300,000
oz per annum sort of production

983
00:52:23,720 --> 00:52:28,920
profile over 10 years for about
US half billion pre production

984
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,480
CapEx post tax MPV 5 at the
time.

985
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:37,520
And mind you this is using US
1840 gold prices about USA

986
00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:39,960
billion.
And I noticed that on the

987
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:43,680
website, they said they had
Resolute as a 20% shareholder,

988
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:47,200
Newmont as a 5% shareholder.
That is interesting as well.

989
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,560
I actually didn't.
I didn't know that Resolute had

990
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:54,800
minority position in this
company, but I do remember it

991
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:58,560
was less than a month ago
Resolute locking in a debt

992
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:01,680
facility which would basically
provide them flexibility for

993
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,320
inorganic opportunities.
Well, took words to that effect.

994
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,920
So like you know, Resolutes, one
of those companies that had, you

995
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:11,000
know, phenomenal kind of turn
around and they're now like in a

996
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,680
pretty good position to embark
on their own sort of, you know,

997
00:53:13,720 --> 00:53:17,200
M&A and maybe they've got 20%
position at this company.

998
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:19,720
If that's right, then could that
one could be on their radar?

999
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:22,720
Yeah.
And I mean, I mean, obviously

1000
00:53:22,720 --> 00:53:27,760
they've got Siamo in Mali and
that Tabani's in Mali as well.

1001
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,960
So that's another potential one
there.

1002
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:34,800
And the last couple here.
So we've got Nucor gold, the

1003
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,680
Inky project again sort of
around a 60 mil mark cap

1004
00:53:37,680 --> 00:53:42,880
Canadian company 122,000 oz over
9 year mine life in Ghana.

1005
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,080
Unlike the others it it's
registered doesn't sort of

1006
00:53:46,080 --> 00:53:48,880
appear to have any of those
strategics marking their

1007
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,480
territory just yet.
All the sustaining of just over

1008
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:56,680
USA thousand an ounce and
initial CapEx of around US 100

1009
00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:00,680
million so that.
Project if the if the numbers

1010
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,760
are sound and the geopolitics
OK, then it warrants its place

1011
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:06,000
and takeover conversations.
It's sort of like a low, low

1012
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,600
CapEx.
I mean, it's much lower kind of

1013
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,600
mine life and and production
profile than some of the others

1014
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:13,200
you mentioned.
But yeah, it's it's attractive

1015
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:14,720
if the rest sort of falls into
place.

1016
00:54:14,720 --> 00:54:17,520
Yeah, 100%.
And then lastly we've got

1017
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:22,120
Pasafino gold.
So they've got, I get about a

1018
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:26,800
Canadian 80 mil marker cap.
They've got the Dug B Dug Bay

1019
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:31,800
project in Liberia, sort of a
traditional open pit operation,

1020
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:38,360
you know, producing 172,000 oz
per annum over 14 years.

1021
00:54:38,360 --> 00:54:42,960
It's sort of low to mid one
grammes, sort of grade gold main

1022
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,800
hurdles, sort of this.
There's a sort of a few, you

1023
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,720
know, relocating communities
dealing with a, you know, sort

1024
00:54:48,720 --> 00:54:52,200
of sensitive environmental and
social factors, you know, all

1025
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:56,040
the fun stuff.
I did see Hummingbird Resources,

1026
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,680
so they're one of those, yeah,
junior producers in, in West, in

1027
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,600
West Africa.
They own 53% of of Passafino.

1028
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:05,960
So I've I've got their territory
marked there.

1029
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:07,080
You wouldn't be surprised to
see.

1030
00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:09,960
Them Yeah, what happens after
the rest but yeah, but yeah, no,

1031
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:13,960
I'm curious obviously we're just
sort of very much scratched the

1032
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:19,440
surface today on this, but if
the money mine is a keen for us

1033
00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:25,680
to do a bit more work on this
space our our our 6 gold

1034
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:28,240
developer pays hit us up let us
know.

1035
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:31,120
Those are one thing that really
strikes me with with those

1036
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:35,680
companies, Ali is like there's a
lot of a lot of assets there,

1037
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:40,480
which if if everything falls
into place from like a like a

1038
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:43,560
regime perspective like those
assets will be that will be

1039
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,440
mines.
And like when you just run

1040
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:48,480
through the the market capsule
them you're like.

1041
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:50,960
They're not demanding.
They're not, they're not

1042
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:52,840
demanding.
Well, like like most of them are

1043
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:54,600
demanding.
And you just kind of compare

1044
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:59,560
that with like, you know, the,
the small subset of of West

1045
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,080
Australian kind of like
undeveloped projects and they're

1046
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:05,200
just, it's just an again, kind
of different ballpark.

1047
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:08,600
Totally different ballpark.
But that's, that's, that's the

1048
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,560
African premium like, you know,
you have to be willing to sort

1049
00:56:11,560 --> 00:56:16,440
of stomach the, the political
rug ball risk, which like 100%

1050
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:18,120
does happen.
We've seen it happen, we've

1051
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:21,120
talked about it heaps of times.
It does, it does happen.

1052
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,800
It's a real thing.
But there's a different kind of

1053
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,480
risk when you, when you get a
like a supposedly Tier 1

1054
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:30,200
jurisdiction as well.
It's like, you know, you, you've

1055
00:56:30,560 --> 00:56:34,080
got higher costs across the
board basically and you've got

1056
00:56:34,240 --> 00:56:37,320
like, you know, like longer and
longer permitting delays.

1057
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,560
It just kind of seemed to be a
bit never ending too so.

1058
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:43,720
I don't know and the technical
and this is broad brush, but the

1059
00:56:43,800 --> 00:56:49,800
the technical sort of qualities
of some of those projects, some

1060
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:52,080
of them don't even compare
against some of these Africans

1061
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,080
as well.
So as far as free cash flow

1062
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:59,960
generation and all of that is
just totally different.

1063
00:56:59,960 --> 00:57:02,680
Thing I like about Africa is you
can still sell to the Chinese

1064
00:57:02,680 --> 00:57:04,800
too.
That's still an exit option for.

1065
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:07,520
It's an option.
Yeah, exactly.

1066
00:57:08,720 --> 00:57:12,600
One bidding tension, hey.
Yeah, if you share or you're a

1067
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:14,600
maximised value on the.
Crazy not to.

1068
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:16,160
Yeah.
Nice work, Allie.

1069
00:57:16,160 --> 00:57:19,800
I reckon there's a few companies
on that list that sort of picked

1070
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:22,880
my interest and worth worth
keeping our eyes on because

1071
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:25,440
absolutely, I feel like pretty
pretty consistently we've seen

1072
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:28,880
these sort of smaller M and A
deals over the past few years

1073
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,520
for these, you know,
predominantly W African, but

1074
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:35,160
also, you know, all the way
through in into S like Southern

1075
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:37,120
Africa as well.
These kind of deals that just

1076
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:40,600
consistently get done and tend
to fly under the radar a bit.

1077
00:57:40,600 --> 00:57:42,400
So there's some some to watch
there.

1078
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:44,560
I'm amazed we got through that
section without a Ding, Ding,

1079
00:57:44,560 --> 00:57:46,560
Ding from you, Ali.
No, I don't know.

1080
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:50,600
Ding Ding Dings.
Oh, it's specifically AWA Small

1081
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:54,200
Gold ETF.
Yeah, other than Wharf.

1082
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:58,760
Oh, that's utterly like.
Wharf Alrighty guys.

1083
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,280
I think we got a a couple
partners to thank.

1084
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:06,880
Axis Mining Technology, Mineral
Mining Services, Verify Adia,

1085
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:10,120
DSI Underground, who we had in
the show, Greenlands Equipment,

1086
00:58:10,120 --> 00:58:13,920
who we also had in the show,
Silverstone CRE Insurance.

1087
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,600
Hey, drill and use a spark chart
while you're at it, guys.

1088
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:18,880
Hey, Daru.
Hey, Daru.

1089
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:22,040
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

1090
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:24,200
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

1091
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:27,840
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1092
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:29,880
person.
Before making any investment

1093
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,920
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1094
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:36,080
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1095
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,280
financial situation and needs.