The Ultra Bull Case for Lithium (YJ Lee)

1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,520
But oh, no, no, there's not
enough lithium in the world to

2
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:04,360
meet the bull case demand.
I'm happy to go over there.

3
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:06,720
I'm happy to talk about how we
get to that level of demand.

4
00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:10,160
Let's do it, Let's do it.
We'll we'll do that in just

5
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:16,160
right after I say this bit.
Jonas Sterling, we're looking at

6
00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:20,520
the lithium price every morning
and mates bodge mean 6% is at

7
00:00:21,080 --> 00:00:26,000
above 2000 US per ton, lithium
carbonate 18,000 US per ton.

8
00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:31,160
The carbonate on G fix mate it's
150,500 RMB per ton.

9
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,680
It's been it's been volatile,
it's been punching up in the

10
00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,600
right direction for all the the
lithium bulls out there.

11
00:00:36,600 --> 00:00:40,280
And we have the perfect guest to
speak to this about why Jay Lee

12
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:45,000
coming off the back of a
fantastic 2025 for the fund.

13
00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,200
Curious to hear what's been the
biggest driver coming out of

14
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,400
2025 and then we can get into
what you're seeing for the year

15
00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,120
ahead.
Hi, hi guys.

16
00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,320
It's great to be back, back on
here again.

17
00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:01,520
So 2025, wow, that was a
incredible year.

18
00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:06,480
I mean, we've had multiple
tailwinds behind us and we, we

19
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:11,080
had a great start even at the
start of the year.

20
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:17,240
You know, we, we actually
started down 12% in the, in the

21
00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,920
previous eight months.
When we started the fund in May

22
00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,920
2024, Well, that was after
Donald Trump won, right?

23
00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:25,320
We were up 10 before he won and
then we were down 12 after,

24
00:01:25,320 --> 00:01:27,960
after that.
So that set us up for a really

25
00:01:27,960 --> 00:01:32,080
nice starting point.
And then we had the big silver

26
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,400
run and then we had the big
lithium rebound from the middle

27
00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,320
of June.
And so we kind of closed the

28
00:01:38,320 --> 00:01:46,960
fund at the end of 2025 up 165%.
165% that's it's it's not not

29
00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:50,920
like crazy for for for punters
just investing PA with massive

30
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,400
concentration, but for a fund
that's going to have yeah, like

31
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,120
a a a large number of positions
that are are, you know,

32
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,960
different, different theses.
That is a that is a crazy a

33
00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:02,200
crazy return.
Well done mate.

34
00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:03,960
Thank you.
Thank you.

35
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,800
Yeah, we, we kind of got lucky
with a few names within these 18

36
00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:13,000
months that the fund has been in
operation, we've had I think 110

37
00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,760
beggar and we have a couple of
5-6 beggars in it.

38
00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:19,040
Yeah.
That's awesome, but we'd love to

39
00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,480
hear some of the the names.
I'm sure some of them would be

40
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:25,320
concentrated in the the silver
space as well, which plays into

41
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,720
the the broader thematic that
your your fund holds.

42
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,680
Yeah.
So, well, today I'm happy to

43
00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,280
share a few names.
I think in the previous

44
00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:39,360
episodes, I've never talked the
exact names that we invest in

45
00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:43,480
for obvious purposes.
And so the first one that I'm

46
00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,280
happy to talk about today is
actually Discovery Silver.

47
00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:52,720
So when we got into Discovery
Silver in May 24, I think it was

48
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:58,000
just under a dollar Canadian and
now it's about 10 or 11 I think.

49
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,720
So what now what what happened?
We, we honestly we got a little

50
00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:06,080
bit lucky there.
So when we bought into it, our

51
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,080
view on the company was that OK,
huge resource kind of lower

52
00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,280
grade 400 million oz at 21 grams
per ton silver.

53
00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:18,480
And that was to me a kind of
optionality play on a on a big

54
00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:20,360
silver run.
So if silver really goes up,

55
00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,400
then this will move.
That was the thesis then.

56
00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,560
So that was the big picture on
the, on the smallest picture,

57
00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,800
the company level, I had done a
discounted cash flow or DCF on

58
00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:38,360
the company and my DCF with a
really high discount rate that I

59
00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,920
usually like to use, you know,
14 to 20 percents.

60
00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:47,160
And that DCF gave me a value of
the company then at about 2:50.

61
00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,240
So I was buying it essentially
$0.40 on the dollar.

62
00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,400
And what happened then?
Here's where the luck comes in

63
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,520
Discovery Silver.
They discovered not silver.

64
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:02,440
Yes, they went into gold.
They bought a little gold

65
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,680
producing mine from I think
Newmont was it?

66
00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:07,280
Yeah.
And it, and then they funded it

67
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:11,120
with a deal with Franco Nevada
and that transformed them

68
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:18,760
intrinsically from a silver
developer into a gold producer

69
00:04:19,079 --> 00:04:21,600
immediately with silver on the
upside.

70
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,080
So the stock price immediately
doubled.

71
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,960
And then of course, you think as
an investor, what do you do now?

72
00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,640
Do you buy whole or do you sell
right?

73
00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:37,400
So what I did was I went back to
the technical reports of this

74
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,960
little goldmine that they had
bought from Newmont.

75
00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:45,720
And then I put that into the DCF
and I realised with on the

76
00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:49,000
current gold price, with a
slight uplift in the future,

77
00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:55,080
this company was now worth 550.
So I helped.

78
00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,160
I not just helped, I actually
added a little bit after it

79
00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,800
doubled.
And then I continued holding it

80
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,280
through the entire crazy gold
and silver run.

81
00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,320
And and then suddenly, you know,
after the end of the year, it

82
00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:12,520
was, it was a 10 beggar.
It's a it's it's there's a

83
00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:13,600
lesson in there.
Right on.

84
00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,160
Yeah, not being too quick to
trim your trim your losses and

85
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,360
also like when, when, when the
facts change, we run your

86
00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:20,640
numbers and realize it's still
cheap.

87
00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,000
You can.
You can add more, even though

88
00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:25,440
you might be anchoring to a much
much lower cost base beforehand.

89
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,440
Yeah, correct.
So one of the little tricks I

90
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:33,040
did with with my mind, now this
is something I don't think

91
00:05:33,040 --> 00:05:35,400
anybody's anybody does because
it's kind of stupid.

92
00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,680
But what I did was I realized I
was kind of getting anchored

93
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:41,840
like you said at a low price.
I didn't want to add to it.

94
00:05:41,840 --> 00:05:44,480
It would, it would, it would
increase my average cost

95
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:46,440
massively right now that it's
doubled.

96
00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,880
So what I did in my spreadsheet,
I actually put a new column

97
00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:55,200
called lowest cost, lowest entry
cost, something like that,

98
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:56,880
right?
No, actually I call it lowest

99
00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:57,960
average price.
Yes.

100
00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,400
So and then the initials are
LAP, right, lap.

101
00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,400
So whenever it's a it's a then
when it becomes a 10 beggar,

102
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:08,640
it's done 10 laps, right.
So, yeah, so and then and then I

103
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:11,520
have a another column called
current average price and that

104
00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:16,280
is a cap.
So yeah, so now to me the cap

105
00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:18,680
does not matter anymore because
now I'm thinking in terms of

106
00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,240
laps, right?
How many laps I'm going to do

107
00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,880
with this investment?
And so I now, now I've moved

108
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:29,240
myself away from anchoring at
the at at with, with a, with a

109
00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:33,080
new higher average price every
time I I buy it into a higher

110
00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,280
price stock.
But now I feel more comfortable

111
00:06:35,280 --> 00:06:36,960
getting in because of this
little switch in the in the

112
00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:39,960
head.
So I think the big question YJ

113
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,640
is the the tremendous bull run
came to a bit of a crashing halt

114
00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:47,120
at the end of last month.
And I think everyone would be

115
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,920
kind of curious to to hear how
how you went about reassessing

116
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,400
your positions in the lead up to
that and in the early days of

117
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,600
February?
Oh, wow.

118
00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,440
OK, we're moving.
We're jumping really quick to

119
00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:04,560
this year, this year.
What happened in the silver

120
00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,960
markets in the end of 20?
Oh, sorry.

121
00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:11,600
January 26 was just crazy.
It moved it.

122
00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:17,840
It dropped from essentially a
peak of $120.00 to to 70 plus

123
00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,840
overnight.
There was a 30 plus percent move

124
00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:25,520
and Silver's never done that
that that essentially was an 8

125
00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:30,320
Sigma event, which you know, if
if you do your statistics, it's

126
00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:34,840
something like a one in 800
trillion chance, which means

127
00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,520
that it's never supposed to
happen in the lifetime of this

128
00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,560
universe, which is which has
only gone through 5 trillion

129
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,320
years.
I think, sorry, 5 trillion days.

130
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,680
So so this is just way out
there, right?

131
00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:54,320
And I think nobody, but not, not
not us, you know, investors that

132
00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:59,200
those this was probably driven
by I would say definitely driven

133
00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,960
by human action those traders on
in the bullion banks just

134
00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,200
pummeling the price because of a
change in narrative.

135
00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,560
And what was this narrative?
Now what happened in the run up

136
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:15,480
to to this crash was that silver
had gone up actually 70% in a

137
00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,200
single month in January.
Last year was a great year.

138
00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:25,560
It went up from it went up from
$30 to about 71, up about 140

139
00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,160
plus percent.
So silver definitely

140
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,080
outperformed throughout 12
months, but in a single month

141
00:08:32,159 --> 00:08:35,880
this year, it went up from 71 to
120.

142
00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:40,919
That was like another 70%.
Yeah.

143
00:08:41,159 --> 00:08:43,120
So that caught a lot of people
by surprise.

144
00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,000
Everybody was positioned on the
longs.

145
00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,000
The narrative in the market was
that Trump was going to appoint

146
00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:55,280
a very dovish Fed president.
And when he when he essentially

147
00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,640
came out with a less than
absolutely dovish name, which

148
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,320
was Kevin Walsh, then the
narrative flipped right that,

149
00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,720
oh, oh, he was an inflation hawk
in the past and is here.

150
00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:08,880
Is he still one now?
Does not matter.

151
00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,680
Sell first.
And that's essentially what

152
00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:14,160
happened.
The traders hit the price, the

153
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:18,360
silver price all the way down.
And that caught a lot of people

154
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:22,160
on the wrong end.
I would not say that we were

155
00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:27,160
smart enough to have sold
everything in this 70% run up.

156
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,560
I wish I did.
But we, we did trim about a

157
00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:34,840
seventh of our silver positions
in the middle of January.

158
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:39,000
But and then I was thinking, oh,
we have, we can have a little

159
00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,560
bit more time to take profits,
right.

160
00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:46,240
But no one day down.
So we took a small drawdown, but

161
00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:49,000
we've recovered a bit of that.
I remember, I remember being

162
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,640
with you in Singapore, yeah, mid
to late Jan and I think it was a

163
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:56,640
Friday and silver price was like
90 bucks.

164
00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:01,520
And I took a photo of you saying
YJ says silver will be 100 bucks

165
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,360
by the end of the weekend and
made it went to like 1120 or

166
00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:06,360
something by the end of the
week.

167
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,960
Hilarious.
But Discovery Silver wasn't the

168
00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:15,720
only the only name you picked
out in the silver space that

169
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,880
that had tremendous performance.
Any other names you can you can

170
00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:21,680
share that would be drivers And
how and how do you choose it?

171
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,560
Yeah.
So we not just buy into little

172
00:10:25,560 --> 00:10:29,880
developers here at the at the
Arcane Green Metal Fund, we also

173
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:35,240
buy large producing companies.
So one of the names that we did

174
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,360
particularly well on was
actually Fresnelo.

175
00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:41,080
This is a London list of name
produces a lot of gold and

176
00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:45,840
silver and when we bought into
it, it was it was a very, very

177
00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:49,640
interesting thesis.
It was a large producer, but

178
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,920
kind of discounted because it
was the market saw it as

179
00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:59,720
suffering from negative free
cash flows that then our thesis

180
00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:05,960
was that if silver and gold
prices just go up 10%, this

181
00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,560
company would suddenly become
cash flow neutral.

182
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:13,120
If gold, silver prices go up
1520%, it would suddenly be free

183
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,280
cash flow positive.
And boy, gold, silver prices did

184
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,800
not just move 1020%.
So suddenly within a few months,

185
00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,400
this company in, in our minds
and, and the way we looked at it

186
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:30,280
was now trading at essentially a
forward free cash flow of about

187
00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,840
14%.
And that's just ridiculous

188
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:39,600
stocks on the S&P 500 on NASDAQ,
they trade at 1 to 3% free cash

189
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:43,040
flows, right yields, free cash
flow yields.

190
00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:48,480
So essentially that that was why
we put a large high conviction

191
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,320
concentrated position in these
names.

192
00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:55,120
And then firstly low I think
went up my entry point in my

193
00:11:55,120 --> 00:12:01,280
entry price is was about my lap,
I should say was about 600

194
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,600
pence.
Yeah, it it, it hit over 4000

195
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:09,160
recently.
JD Silva had an absolutely crazy

196
00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:10,520
run.
A wicked year.

197
00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:15,000
Lithium had a wonderful run off
of a bottom you know what I

198
00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:16,880
always had a tremendous year
last year.

199
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,720
No one's talking about it
Australian property, Australian

200
00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,560
commercial property.
And unlike lithium and

201
00:12:22,560 --> 00:12:23,920
silverware, it's a boom bust
market.

202
00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,560
This Australian property market
is just a nonstop boom market.

203
00:12:27,560 --> 00:12:29,760
This.
Up and to the right now we know

204
00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,600
a good property play exceed
capital.

205
00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,480
They've got a brand new trust,
the SP Property Trust in the

206
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,880
Gold Coast, the heart of
Queensland in a booming property

207
00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,120
market.
It's a private unit trust, JD.

208
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,600
There's a specific commercial
property in mind in the Gold

209
00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:47,440
Coast and it's targeting an 8%
cash return with distributions

210
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:49,640
paid monthly.
On top of that, you get the

211
00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,160
benefit of any capital uplift
that happens over the five year

212
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:56,760
term of the of the SP Unit Trust
money minors check out Exceed

213
00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,960
Capital and the SP Property
Trust details are in the show

214
00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:00,840
notes.
Go exceed.

215
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:06,320
YJ Lithium, we had you on.
I think it was like, yeah,

216
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,920
6:00-ish months ago, maybe
longer, could even be like

217
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,520
August, like July, July last
year.

218
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,160
Yeah, it was a really
interesting time in the, in the

219
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,080
lithium market.
In fact, it kind of aligned with

220
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,960
the bottom and which you weren't
afraid to call it.

221
00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:20,800
I think we tiled with that
episode, you know, the lithium

222
00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,320
inflection point.
You just kind of come back from

223
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,400
fast markets where where you did
vocalize your, your, your, your,

224
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,040
your, your coal that it was the
bottom of the lithium market and

225
00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:31,680
it and it turned out to be an
app to call.

226
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,240
How have you evaluated the the
lithium market dynamics in the

227
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:39,520
in the month since?
Wow.

228
00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,640
OK, so we're talking about the
last 6-7 months.

229
00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:47,360
Yeah, it's, it's been a very,
very interesting rebound.

230
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:52,920
So just to recap, in July last
year, like I said, I just come

231
00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,560
back from the Fast Markets
Lithium conference.

232
00:13:54,560 --> 00:13:56,040
I was giving a presentation
there.

233
00:13:56,760 --> 00:14:00,680
I titled my presentation Raging
Lithium Bull in the China Shop

234
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,520
and I think I think that was a
fun one.

235
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:08,400
And what really struck me then I
had gone into the conference

236
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,800
with the with the thought that I
would probably be the only

237
00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:16,400
bullish lithium voice there.
And for the most part that was

238
00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,720
true.
Most of the large banks and

239
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,600
brokerages, they were still
very, very negative.

240
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,880
They were saying oversupply is
going to continue until 2832

241
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,600
even.
But what I noticed was that

242
00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:31,640
there were a few smaller names,
you know, consultants,

243
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:37,840
independent players that were
saying, oh, OK, this is, we are

244
00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:42,240
seeing green shoots.
So I was not the only bullish

245
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,040
voice there.
And when I came back to

246
00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:48,800
Singapore, I, I took one big
step back again to look at this

247
00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:53,320
market from broad perspective.
And then I realized now the

248
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:57,680
lithium price was 8000, about
$8000 per tonne, the carbonate

249
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,320
price, it had come down from
nearly 80, right?

250
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:07,680
And 2/3 of the producers in the
world were not making money.

251
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:13,920
And but the big picture for me
was lithium in 2026 grows about

252
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:18,880
1/3 about 33% from 1.5 million
tonnes to 2,000,000 tonnes.

253
00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,400
And and later on the both
chairman of Gun Fong and TNT

254
00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,840
came out to essentially say the
same thing in different ways.

255
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:33,200
And next year again in 2027 I
see this market growing from 2

256
00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:35,040
million to 2 and a half million
tonnes.

257
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:40,960
So how does this market, which
is growing 3320 high 20 plus

258
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:46,160
percent growth make no money for
2/3 of the producers?

259
00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:49,120
It just didn't make sense.
And therefore, when I came back

260
00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:52,440
to Singapore, what I did was I
immediately allocated another

261
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:57,200
10% of the portfolio into
lithium names calling, calling

262
00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:00,280
the bottom right there and well,
and the stocks essentially

263
00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,560
doubled, quickly doubled from
that point.

264
00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:07,560
So you you put a a very bullish
prediction out there when we

265
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,600
spoke last and maybe even the
time before when you think about

266
00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:15,600
the lithium market out to 2030
and your number was 4.6 million

267
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:20,120
ton market size by 20-30 if I'm
getting that right and that

268
00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,160
materially exceeds most other
forecasts you'll see at.

269
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:30,640
About 6 Sigma from the.
That is a very strong CAGAR to

270
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,240
get from here to there in the
space of five years.

271
00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:37,520
So we'd love to just get a
refresh on your thinking on the

272
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:42,200
demand supply dynamics and the
the the surplus deficit kind of

273
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,200
dynamics that we'll see from
here to there.

274
00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,920
Yep.
So this 4.6 million ton figure

275
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:53,640
is something that I think I've
put out for a year now and that

276
00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,320
has not changed.
I have, I have anchored my

277
00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:58,920
position there.
I will let all the other banks

278
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:00,520
and brokerages catch up with
this number.

279
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:01,800
Eventually I think they will get
there.

280
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:03,120
That's your, that's your base
case.

281
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,040
Sorry to interrupt as well,
isn't it because I saw on a

282
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:06,640
slide you've got a bull case as
well.

283
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:08,160
So we're not even talking the
bull case.

284
00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:11,200
But no, no, no, there's, there's
not enough lithium in the world

285
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,160
to meet the bull case demand.
I'm happy to go over there.

286
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,520
I'm happy to talk about how we
get to that level of demand.

287
00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,920
Let's do it, let's do it.
We'll, we'll do that in just

288
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:22,960
right after I say this bit.
So how do we get to 4.6 million

289
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:26,640
tons?
Now remember just a year, just a

290
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,800
year ago, no banks, Oregon
brokerages were talking about

291
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:34,120
storage, great storage in a big
way, battery energy storage

292
00:17:34,120 --> 00:17:38,680
systems or what we call best.
And in the later part of 2026

293
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,360
when that suddenly became
topical, most of the brokerages

294
00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:46,600
out there raised their best
forecasts by as much as 300 plus

295
00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,680
percent.
And then they suddenly realized

296
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:54,200
by doing so, oh, our model goes
into a deficit starting from as

297
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,200
early as 20260.
Oops, right.

298
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:04,080
And what we did with the best
forecast, which again I have put

299
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:08,720
a large number out there and I'm
not changing it, is that we said

300
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:14,880
2024 was a 200 GW, 205 GW hour
year 2025.

301
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:19,800
The number, the number that I
put in the slide was 325.

302
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,960
I think somebody came up with
the actual installation numbers

303
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,600
just last week or was it just a
couple of days ago and it turned

304
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,280
out I think to be 315.
So I'm sticking with this

305
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:32,000
forecast.
I think we're quite, we're quite

306
00:18:32,120 --> 00:18:35,720
there.
And the way it grows, the way I

307
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:41,160
see commercial home grid storage
all growing, it's going to, it's

308
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:44,280
exploding, right?
It's going to 1.5 terawatt hours

309
00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:48,440
by 2030.
Most of the forecasts I've seen

310
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:53,160
out there, they barely scratch
1000 GW hours, 1 terawatt hour.

311
00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,320
So I think you know give it,
give it the next few years as

312
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,920
they keep upgrading these best
forecasts, they might come and

313
00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:02,320
hit the 1.5 number that I have
there.

314
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,560
And and that with a few other
sectors of lithium demand that

315
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,520
we're not even talking about yet
is how we get to 4.6 and how I

316
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,880
think the other brokerages
eventually come up to this four

317
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,120
plus number.
Tell me, how do we get to the

318
00:19:17,120 --> 00:19:18,560
broadcast?
What is the broadcast?

319
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:23,120
Right, All right.
So in my base case, I have EVs

320
00:19:23,120 --> 00:19:26,040
at a global penetration of about
45%.

321
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:29,960
In the bull case, I have EVs at
60%.

322
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:34,040
Now I actually in in my mind, I
actually do think that EVs at

323
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:39,000
60% global penetration in 20-30
is very, very realistic.

324
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:44,720
Why China is the largest
automobile market in the world

325
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,360
as of now.
There are, there are new sales

326
00:19:48,360 --> 00:19:54,880
penetration rates 60 plus
percent, they are going to 80,

327
00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:00,560
maybe even 90 plus percent by
20-30, huge drive there.

328
00:20:01,120 --> 00:20:04,360
And China accounts for about 40%
of automobile sales in the

329
00:20:04,360 --> 00:20:07,720
world.
So if you take 40% * 80%

330
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,400
penetration rate, we have a
global penetration contribution

331
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:19,160
from China alone of 32% now.
What happens in the US, the

332
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,960
other large automobile market,
now they are in the low teens,

333
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,520
you know, fine.
By 20-30 I think they get to at

334
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,680
least 25%.
What happens in Europe?

335
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,360
They are in the mid 30s or
actually even closer to 40 +

336
00:20:32,360 --> 00:20:35,880
50%.
Soon by 20-30, there will be

337
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:41,600
6070% penetration rates and then
rest of the world, you keep

338
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:46,360
adding on there and suddenly we
are at 60% EV penetration.

339
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,200
It's doable.
And the difference between 45

340
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:57,640
and 60% EV penetration is 700
kilotons of lithium demand LCE,

341
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,560
right.
So that takes us from 4.6 to

342
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,200
5.3.
And then we have E buses, E

343
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:11,120
trucks in the base case of 2533%
penetration rates, in the bulk

344
00:21:11,120 --> 00:21:16,240
case, they are 33 and 50%.
Can E trucks go to 50%

345
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,400
penetration rates in 20-30?
Not impossible.

346
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:25,160
What's happening in China is
that as of last year, more than

347
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,480
1/5 of all the heavy trucks sold
in China were already electric.

348
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,720
Nobody in the West is following
this closely.

349
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:38,000
All right, CATL has come up to
say we are going to drive EV

350
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,960
penetration of heavy trucks in
China to 50% by 2028.

351
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,520
And then China is starting to
export all these heavy trucks.

352
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:50,920
You know, you can forget about
the Tesla Semi.

353
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:55,080
You know, China is going to sell
so many heavy trucks around the

354
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:58,720
world at much cheaper prices,
better performance.

355
00:21:59,120 --> 00:22:03,880
They are going to drive this
change, this higher penetration

356
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,600
of trucks.
And why do trucks switch

357
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,120
electric quickly?
The same reason taxis went

358
00:22:10,120 --> 00:22:12,920
electric before most of the
passenger fleet.

359
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,200
High usage.
The higher your usage of the

360
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,760
vehicle, the faster you make
payback on on.

361
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,520
Lower operating cost, not
burning diesel, lower

362
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:29,240
maintenance costs, no gearbox,
and now the kicker, lower

363
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,320
upfront costs.
So EVs at the at the passenger

364
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,400
car level are now cheaper than
ICE vehicles.

365
00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:39,640
You know, for the most part, on
average it has come down to the

366
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,400
mass market.
This tool will happen for trucks

367
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:46,680
and then that drives global
penetration of the high usage

368
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,640
heavy E trucks.
And that's how we get from from

369
00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:53,960
and and buses as well.
And that's how we get from the

370
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:58,000
base to the bull case.
Battery energy storage systems

371
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,080
best.
I have 1.5 terawatt hours as the

372
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:07,360
base case In a real bull case.
We could see penetrations of you

373
00:23:07,360 --> 00:23:11,000
know, we could, we could see
even 2 plus I have 2.6 terawatt

374
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,320
hours.
This was I'll, I'll credit this

375
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:17,000
to my Co manager of the fund,
Christopher Rucker.

376
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,760
He's he's the founder of this
management company as well.

377
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:25,680
All gentlemen German guy, all
white hair looks like Einstein.

378
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,080
You should you should totally
put, you know, superimpose even

379
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:32,600
Einstein together.
And so so he actually had a

380
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,800
much, much larger number for
best number.

381
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,760
And and you know, we, we had a,
we had a bit of a discussion and

382
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,480
we compromised that 2.6 terawatt
hours for the bull case.

383
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,720
So you were you were more
bearish than someone else in the

384
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,560
world.
Oh, Chris, like Chris, like his,

385
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,640
you know, exponential
projections and, and, and to

386
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,200
give him credit, he was
absolutely right on the

387
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:58,760
exponential projections for
solar, for the solar industry in

388
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:02,920
the last 15 years.
So if he's right on best we

389
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,440
could, well, we could, this
could, this could really go big.

390
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:10,000
But of course, Chris and I, we
do see that this is not the,

391
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:15,720
this demand cannot be fulfilled
by lithium sodium will probably

392
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,320
take a large chunk of the best
market eventually.

393
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:19,720
And that's to us.
It's all right.

394
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,480
You know, we are in a structural
deficit.

395
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,080
The, the sodium stories, yeah,
had some renewed legs,

396
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:28,080
especially the announcement out
of CATLI think it was in in

397
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,520
February.
Their, their confidence in, in

398
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,040
that technology.
I know it's early days.

399
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,320
I know there's a huge supply
chain and that has to be built

400
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,560
out to support it.
But the early signs coming from

401
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,200
CATCATL do seem quite
interesting on that front.

402
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,960
Yep, the numbers that they are
putting out actually quite

403
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,160
surprising.
As surprising as LFP was back in

404
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,320
the day, it wasn't a thing.
And suddenly it's not more than

405
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,800
half the lithium market.
But sodium still has a few

406
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,440
challenges.
One, it will never be as energy

407
00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,520
dense as lithium for sure,
simply because of the molecular

408
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,680
atomic physics.
Second, sodium batteries, as I

409
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,680
as I understand it, have a have
a declining voltage profile that

410
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:12,520
would that would necessitate at
the minimum, you know,

411
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:13,960
Transformers to manage the
battery.

412
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,880
Every single sodium battery
there is not a problem for grid,

413
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,360
you know, you can land is
essentially infinite, but it

414
00:25:20,360 --> 00:25:22,120
will be a problem for vehicles
probably.

415
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,400
And it to to in my mind, it you
know, they're talking about

416
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:31,880
hybrid batteries, lithium plus
sodium batteries to my in my, in

417
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,200
my mind, that is yeah, it's,
it's, it's an option, it's a

418
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:37,880
product.
But why do you want two

419
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,960
different types of management
battery management systems, two

420
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:45,560
different types of chemistries
to to essentially address the

421
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:51,440
need of edge case users, right
-60° temperatures or plus 50°

422
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,800
temperatures?
So I think just like the hybrid

423
00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:03,880
car, ICE plus batteries is to
me, what do you call it, a

424
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,840
bridge technology to to bridge
the gap between ICE and

425
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:09,480
batteries.
So.

426
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:15,000
So in my mind, hybrid batteries
could also be such a bridge

427
00:26:15,120 --> 00:26:16,920
technology.
But now?

428
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:20,320
But now that implies that sodium
could be the battery chemistry

429
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:21,280
of the future.
Who knows?

430
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,760
Is it too conspiratorial to say
that every time the lithium

431
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,920
price runs up, cattle just talks
about sodium ion batteries just

432
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:31,800
to talk the market back down?
I was, I was about to make a

433
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,200
Twitter post or something like
that, You know, I went to 200.

434
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,400
I was going to post.
Yeah.

435
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,680
So how is CATL now?
Now going to crashed the price

436
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:46,800
right and they and they did it
before I posted it, they started

437
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,280
talking about telling their mine
workers to get ready for the

438
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:55,560
restart and this was in December
right 2025 and we are now two

439
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,640
months into 26 and no mine
restart.

440
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:02,960
I do, I do want to talk about
restarts, particular

441
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,800
announcements that have been
made this week as well.

442
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,760
But before we do, what you said
before just sparked so many

443
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:11,640
thoughts.
One that came to mind was you

444
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:13,920
were talking about the EV
penetration across different

445
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,080
markets.
And when we look at the EU

446
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,960
specifically YJ, they were
perhaps leading the world in the

447
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,800
amount of government mandated
targets that had to be hit.

448
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:29,960
And in recent months, we've sort
of seen them step back from a

449
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,720
few of these.
Add to that, a lot of the

450
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,040
Western makers have seen like
enormous write downs, albeit

451
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,000
these are a balance sheet
accounting type actions, but to

452
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,040
the tune of like 55 billion U.S.
dollars.

453
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,840
Is that just a function of them
not being competitive with

454
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:50,720
Chinese EV makers and then
trying to connect the dots

455
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,040
between where they're gonna find
all these cars and protecting

456
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,600
their own industries and these
sorts of things?

457
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,200
Or how do you take all those
data points and combine them

458
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:01,120
into your thinking?
Right.

459
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,240
First of all, what's happening
in the EU, this walk back of

460
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:08,240
these mandates to me does not
matter.

461
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:13,800
This technology is now being
driven purely by real economics.

462
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,560
So in the past and we're in and
by past we are now talking 10

463
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,200
plus years ago when EVs and
batteries were not that

464
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:28,160
economical, subsidies and all
that had had a place in actually

465
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,200
bringing the price, the real
price down to compare to make it

466
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,880
comparable with ICE vehicles.
But today, given that the

467
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:40,240
Chinese actually produce EVs so
cheaply, they're exporting

468
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,320
around the world.
And the biggest, the biggest

469
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:48,400
joke is that they make bigger
margins selling overseas than in

470
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,280
their home market.
So after raising the prices in

471
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,160
overseas markets, after going
through the tariffs of those

472
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:59,280
markets, they are still price
competitive with the local

473
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,360
producers, the West, the the,
the European manufacturers or

474
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:08,000
the American manufacturers.
And this to me means that this

475
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,840
market is now self-sustaining.
It will this technology is now

476
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,720
self-sustaining.
It will grow simply because of

477
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,640
fundamental economics.
And coming back to why the

478
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,040
Western guys like Ford, etcetera
are all writing down their

479
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,760
investments.
The Ford Lightning didn't sell

480
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,400
much.
Tesla Cybertruck, they've not

481
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,480
written it down yet, but didn't
sell much, right?

482
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:36,480
Big height, small sales.
And in A to a large extent, this

483
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,120
is really being driven by the
hyper competitiveness of the

484
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,040
Chinese manufacturers and how
quickly they get to those

485
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,840
markets.
And the, and of course, the

486
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:52,400
largest geopolitical picture is
now that unfortunately Trump has

487
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:58,560
caused a lot of former allies to
now break away and start doing

488
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,440
their own deals with the
Chinese.

489
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,360
One by one.
They are striking trade deals,

490
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,880
they are lowering tariffs.
And eventually they will realise

491
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:11,400
that I have no skin in the game
in the automobile business.

492
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:15,800
We do not need to keep the
American business alive.

493
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:21,360
Lower Chinese products, lower
priced, sorry, Chinese products

494
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:26,840
at a better quality results in a
higher utility to our people.

495
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,800
Therefore, we are going to do
this and that is why I think

496
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,160
Western manufacturers are in
deep, deep trouble.

497
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,160
I yeah, I would echo a lot of
what you say there, Yji am

498
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,080
curious to to just dig in like a
tiny bit deeper.

499
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:47,120
Do you have any reservations
about a national security type

500
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:52,120
impact if, if politics in the US
for instance, stays on on the

501
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,040
right hand side where it has
been for for the latest

502
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:59,320
administration, whether the the
protectionists and the people

503
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,680
particularly concerned about
about China have their way in

504
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,880
defending their their EV market
on those sorts of grounds?

505
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,600
Well, national security, no, I
don't believe that's a real

506
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,240
thing, that if we were concerned
about national security, we

507
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,320
would the world would not be
producing most of its mobile

508
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,200
phones in China.
That's, I mean, Apple did it

509
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:21,960
right.
It was essentially all produced

510
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:27,080
in China and and that's the real
national security device.

511
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,200
It's not a car, right?
The Chinese are not going to put

512
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,160
trackers in all your cars and
to, to try where all of you go

513
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,640
for your summer holidays.
Nobody cares.

514
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,720
It's already being done by the
phone, right?

515
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:48,800
And the the national security
story here could be OK jobs,

516
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:55,200
manufacturing jobs, but to A to
a large extent, this is also the

517
00:31:55,480 --> 00:32:01,360
manufacturers themselves.
Not one thing to get fully

518
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:06,200
behind the EV game, one thing to
protect their existing

519
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,440
manufacturing lines, their
existing products.

520
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:15,960
Look at what's happening with
with BMW and and American

521
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:17,840
manufacturers.
Look at what's happening with on

522
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,840
the Japan, Japanese side Toyota
right now they're talking about,

523
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,920
OK, we're going to leapfrog to
solid-state, you know, and, and

524
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,280
not really produce much in the
in the way of BV's today, which

525
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:36,440
are now selling today.
So what I see happening here is

526
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:41,040
too much protectionism, not
enough willingness to change.

527
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:45,240
And unfortunately that's that's
true for well, for most

528
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,440
countries.
China just happened to have have

529
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:55,680
a have a different system where
where they kind of can I can I

530
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:59,320
even use this Chinese phrase
here by Hua Qi Fung, you know,

531
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:04,840
to let 100 flowers bloom at the
same time, create some hyper

532
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,560
competition within these guys
and then the survivors will

533
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,280
become the Champions of the
future.

534
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,680
So this is this is what China
China has been doing to drive

535
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,360
their competitiveness.
But unfortunately, the West,

536
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,520
because it's been entrenched in
their millions of workers

537
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,120
already working in this field,
unwilling to change and

538
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,480
therefore just doing everything
they can to to protect the

539
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,160
status quo.
Been an incredibly effective

540
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,200
approach that the Chinese have
taken.

541
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:42,360
To go to your early point on
restarts, we saw the first

542
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,360
announcement from an Aussie
major.

543
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,680
PLS looking to bring Nagaju back
online.

544
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,080
Are these sorts of prices?
Is this kind of the first of

545
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,200
many and you've got this kind of
worked in into your model?

546
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:59,360
Yeah, for PLS and Nagaju.
Now, the most important thing,

547
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,680
the most important point, I note
in this restart, it does not

548
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:04,720
happen today.
It does not happen next month.

549
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,480
They scheduled it for July this
year.

550
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:12,000
Incredibly intelligent move by
Dale and team, I must say,

551
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,760
because what they're now saying
is the market is structurally,

552
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:19,159
essentially structurally in a
deficit.

553
00:34:19,159 --> 00:34:23,719
It needs this production.
But if we start today, it's

554
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,320
going to it's, it's going to
disrupt the tenuous supply

555
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,320
demand balance that is now just
tipping over into a deficit.

556
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:36,120
But if we do not restart it and
we do not say anything about

557
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,440
restarts for the next 5 months,
there's going to be a lot of

558
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,360
uncertainty.
So what PLS has just done is

559
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,560
essentially we're going to
remove this uncertainty from the

560
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,400
lithium market without affecting
current prices and current

561
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:52,719
demand supply balances.
So by pushing this restart out

562
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:59,440
for the next 5 months and step
back again, lithium market is

563
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:04,480
growing 33% this year every
quarter, every three months, it

564
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:09,160
grows about 8%.
So what Dale and team are doing

565
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:17,880
is they are giving the market
time to growth by about 12% LCE,

566
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:25,720
12% on a 1.5 million tonne
market of last year, that's 100

567
00:35:25,720 --> 00:35:32,220
and 5000 and 70 kilotons LCE.
Far more demand growth than not

568
00:35:32,220 --> 00:35:35,720
a Joule would bring to the
market therefore would not

569
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:40,640
affect the supply demand
balance, but would tonnage into

570
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:42,440
a market that is growing into
deficit.

571
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:49,920
Yeah, the the rate of of these,
yeah, I suppose like restarts or

572
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:54,120
or the OR the supply response
will will have a a big impact on

573
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,040
this, you know, still still
small market, but a small market

574
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:58,920
that is growing at an insane
rate.

575
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:05,360
And last last time you know
spot, spot spot 60% was was 2000

576
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,120
bucks per ton.
We were all surprised by the

577
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,800
rate at which African supply
could kind of come online and

578
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:18,280
eat into the deficit.
Are there any signs of caution

579
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:21,520
from the supply side, or is the
arithmetic of just the demand

580
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,400
growth too overwhelming for you
to tempt your bullishness?

581
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:28,120
Yeah.
So this is all about big demand

582
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,560
growth now and let's
contextualize it again.

583
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,640
When when the African mines were
coming to the supply market,

584
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:40,360
this was in this was in 2022,
lithium price peaked in December

585
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:45,120
2022 and then it started falling
in the next two years.

586
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:53,280
So that was 22 was the market
size of about 800 to 1,000,000

587
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,200
tonnes LCE.
If I recall correctly, I think

588
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,640
it was 800.
And then when the, when the

589
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,480
Africans came to the market,
sorry, when the Chinese went

590
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:04,640
into Africa to bring this supply
to the market, they essentially

591
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:08,760
raised the supply by about a
hundred 150,000 kilotons of CE.

592
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:13,880
And suddenly that tipped this
nascent market into oversupply

593
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,840
easily.
Today the market is 1 1/2.

594
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,080
Oh no, sorry, from 800 is now
double the size.

595
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:24,120
It's 1.5 million tonne market.
This year it will be a 2 million

596
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,000
tonne market.
What's 100?

597
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:32,920
And well, it's 100K tons, right?
Demand is growing this year 490K

598
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:38,040
tons from about 500, from 1.5 to
2 million this year.

599
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,120
I think I have a chart I shared
with you guys.

600
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,480
Next year I see this demand
growing to two and a half

601
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,120
million tons.
It grows by 500K tons again, and

602
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:52,080
then in subsequent years it
grows by 700K tons every year.

603
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,280
Back to market size.
Last year the market was 1.5

604
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,960
million tons.
We are talking every single year

605
00:37:59,960 --> 00:38:07,000
the market growing by 500 to 700
kilotons, 1/3 to half the size

606
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,360
of last year's market.
Can supply do this?

607
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:16,040
Can the world bring on new mines
equivalent to 3050% of last

608
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:20,280
year's supply every single year?
You mentioned that the

609
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:24,360
management team before at PLS
and the great job they've done

610
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:29,240
and they've undoubtedly got a,
you know, a phenomenal valuation

611
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,280
on on the company and they've
managed themselves through the

612
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,800
ups and downs as well as anyone
has.

613
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,280
Do you think when you look back
and with your kind of

614
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,200
bullishness in in mind for the
market that they were a bit

615
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,200
timid in how they could have
perhaps bought back stock or

616
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,800
done these sorts of Capital
Management type approaches?

617
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:49,000
Or do you think it was kind of
the right thing to do at the

618
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,760
time, given the the the whip
soaring of the industry?

619
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:59,320
Look, it's I mean all respect to
Dale and team, this is a very,

620
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,600
very difficult environment to
play in an asset industry where

621
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:07,240
the price swings 1000% on the up
and 90% down South.

622
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:12,440
Hindsight is always 2020.
I would not say that it's easy

623
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,680
and, and, and large companies
like PLS, it's very, very

624
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:21,240
difficult to, to change the
direction of the ship when, when

625
00:39:21,240 --> 00:39:23,200
the market is growing really
quickly.

626
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:24,960
And and it did grow really
quickly.

627
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:31,080
Nobody saw the, the African
supply come up so quickly.

628
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:34,880
Not all the Chinese Lapido like
come up that quickly together at

629
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,400
the same time.
And this lithium winter was also

630
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,840
shorter than what could have
been because lithium is growing

631
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:45,000
that quickly.
So, you know, in the supply

632
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:49,440
chain economics, there's this
thing called the bullwhip effect

633
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:55,280
where where prices swing very
high and very low simply because

634
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:59,800
of supply lags in in responses
to demand changes.

635
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,320
And that is essentially what is
happening in the lithium

636
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:07,640
industry at a super macro level.
And that means that it is very,

637
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:12,640
very difficult for individual
companies to optimize to an

638
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:16,080
essentially unpredictable market
environment.

639
00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:21,880
So I think, I think.
PLS has done perfectly.

640
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:23,680
This is an imperfect world,
right?

641
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:28,280
They have done, they have made
the best choices given and given

642
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:31,800
imperfect information which
which is available to everybody

643
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:36,040
at the same time.
And I think they did really well

644
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:42,200
in the long term growth picture.
When I, when I first understood

645
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,440
PLS as a company, Pilgrim
Minerals, they were, I think

646
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,400
they were at the P before the
P680.

647
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,960
What was that right?
Then it went to 680, then it

648
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:53,560
went to 1000 and then they
started talking about the 2000

649
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,800
plan.
And then along the way they had

650
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:59,960
their midstream project, test
project, they had their Toyota

651
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:05,520
hydroxide conversion plant.
I think they're doing all the

652
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:09,360
right things.
So yeah, this is really a very,

653
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:10,800
very well managed lithium
company.

654
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,720
I wonder if they'll they'll be
motivated to use their use their

655
00:41:14,720 --> 00:41:18,280
script at these levels to to
acquire.

656
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,120
I know that they've been like
super trepidatious in the past

657
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:24,560
with what deals they do, but
with their script at 5 bucks and

658
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:29,800
you look, you look in the the
landscape, things like Wildcat

659
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,680
start to really make sense for
them at, at at these, these

660
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:33,640
prices.
I would have thought.

661
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,520
I don't want you to think about
that one, Marjay, but happy to

662
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,920
pivot if not to talk about the
Jiangshi mine restart, which

663
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,840
seems to always catch the
headlines in Lithium News

664
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,320
whether it eventuates or not and
how that kind of plays out.

665
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:55,840
The CTL mine you mean?
So that one to me essentially

666
00:41:55,840 --> 00:42:01,840
it's, it's almost a non event
now, honestly, what it shut down

667
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,520
in the middle of I think August
last year and to now it's been

668
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:10,560
half a year, markets grown by
1516% over this time frame, far

669
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:13,440
more than what this mine brings
to the market.

670
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,640
And even when it restarts, yes,
when it restarts, the lithium

671
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,440
price will shiver, it will come
down, stocks will, stocks will

672
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,840
have a mini crash.
And that's probably a great

673
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,400
entry point.
By the deep by the deep on the

674
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,440
on the news.
Do you think any of the the

675
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,480
changes that the the government
wants to see implemented through

676
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,280
junction will will be spread
across the the various

677
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,440
operations in the country?
Is this equally a a non event as

678
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,320
well?
No, I would, I would not say

679
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,920
that this is a non event from a
mind control point of view.

680
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:49,680
It's a non event for changing
the supply demand balance of the

681
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:51,640
global market.
That's what I mean.

682
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:55,920
But what's happening in China is
this not sorry anti evolution

683
00:42:55,920 --> 00:43:01,040
thing and to a large part we are
not even seeing the proper

684
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:04,560
technical standards being
developed yet.

685
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,880
And what do I mean by this?
In the solar industry, which has

686
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:14,720
been massively over capacity for
the last for the last few years,

687
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:20,680
the Chinese government came in
with extremely detailed control

688
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,320
measures.
And by extremely detailed, I

689
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:28,680
mean they are now saying if you
do not produce a polysilicon

690
00:43:29,240 --> 00:43:33,320
with less than, I forgot a
number, how many kilowatt hours

691
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:38,600
per kilo of electricity per
kilogram of product, you shut

692
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,960
down.
That is the kind of technical

693
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,040
detail we are talking about.
That's that's why the Chinese

694
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,520
government is so good at this.
They are really, really

695
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,360
technical.
If these mines cannot produce

696
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:54,920
profitably, then they can't.
They stay shut down for the

697
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,480
moment.
Government has not come up with

698
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,960
these technical standards to to
determine whether they can

699
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:05,280
produce going forward.
And I think that is part

700
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:10,120
partially why the CATL Mines
mine remains in limbo right now.

701
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,800
Watch, I've got to, I've got to
ask you a quick one because I

702
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,920
know you're, you're quite
bullish on a lot of things

703
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,680
electrification kind of wise.
And I'm curious if that spills

704
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,800
into the, the world of AI.
We've seen sort of rumors here

705
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:25,520
and there and the odd article
being written in, albeit Chinese

706
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:29,960
media of automated mines, you
know, on a vastly more automated

707
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,920
scale than any Western kind of
mine.

708
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,400
And if you you cast your mind
out five or ten years like you

709
00:44:35,720 --> 00:44:38,560
like to do when you think about
what the world looks like then

710
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,560
is China just going to be so far
ahead on some of these perhaps

711
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,360
these lithium operations, they
drop down the the cost curve

712
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:49,480
because of automation.
Well, for not so much for

713
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:54,200
lithium for other minerals, yes
well, mining, you know, you guys

714
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,720
are the experts in mining it's a
lot about the grade it exists at

715
00:44:57,720 --> 00:45:00,800
naturally in the ground, right.
If that grade isn't there, all

716
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,720
you're doing is putting band
aids on the problem right?

717
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:09,280
You, you can't, you can't beat
having a 1.5% grade when you

718
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,080
when, when naturally you're
endowed with point 3.4 percents,

719
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:15,280
so.
You don't.

720
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,520
You want to move as little waste
as possible and you want to

721
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,960
process as high grade rock as
possible.

722
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,320
Yep, Yep.
You're talking strip ratios in

723
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:28,040
sometimes literally in the
hundreds, you know, not not even

724
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,480
funny in China.
So they're moving entire

725
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,400
mountains just to produce a ton
of lithium.

726
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,120
So that I don't think applies
for the lithium industry.

727
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:43,040
But JD, like you say, this is
happening in China big way.

728
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,880
In a single mine in Inner
Mongolia, they have put in I

729
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,560
think a few hundred of these
automated trucks.

730
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:54,240
Each one of these trucks has a
500 plus kWh battery.

731
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:58,280
And the best part is there is no
driver's cap.

732
00:45:59,880 --> 00:46:03,000
It's entirely 5G control.
Wow.

733
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,240
That's on the on the truck at
the back of it, there's a little

734
00:46:05,240 --> 00:46:08,640
red logo that says Huawei.
And what happens is that Huawei

735
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:12,840
puts that 5G control network
within the mind and they control

736
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:16,960
these 500, these trucks all
autonomously.

737
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,600
And to the extent that they no
longer produce fumes and

738
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,280
exhausts that that allows, you
know, mines to essentially

739
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:29,960
operate with a much lower cost.
And then it's eventually when

740
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,400
they go underground, they will
be able to grow much further

741
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,200
underground.
It's a wild, wild future that it

742
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:38,320
could look like you made the
point of it not being relevant

743
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,840
to lithium ions so much.
And your fund of course is not

744
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,560
specifically a lithium and
silver fund.

745
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,560
So maybe as we kind of wrap
curious to get your take on, on

746
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,920
the other kind of battery metals
out there, copper, nickel, these

747
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,160
sorts of things and whether
you're you're getting excited

748
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:56,480
about any of them?
Yeah, so here at the Arcane

749
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,040
Green Metal Fund, we look at
many, many energy transition

750
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:02,840
metals.
Like you say, lithium, silver

751
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,200
are the big ones.
Got some gold because of the

752
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,240
silver producers.
Yay.

753
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:11,600
But at the same time we look
closely at the nickel, graphite,

754
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:17,960
manganese, cobalt, all these
markets we have not invested and

755
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:22,320
and of course copper, let's not
forget the big, the big boy, we

756
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,640
have some copper as well, but we
have allocated a bit less to

757
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:29,040
that because we see a very, very
weird situation happening with

758
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,960
copper.
Long term structural deficit for

759
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:36,800
sure, right?
Electrification of everything

760
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:40,960
plus declining mines, declining
grades going and essentially

761
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,000
fewer and fewer discoveries, big
discoveries.

762
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:50,400
But in the short term, I do see
a big risk of US recession or at

763
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:55,200
least AUS market crash.
And that then takes and then Dr.

764
00:47:55,200 --> 00:48:01,280
copper as the, as the metal is
used to be called, will probably

765
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,680
retain that role and come down
in a big way.

766
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,920
This run up in the copper price
last year.

767
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,920
Very weird dynamics.
That's, that's a great guy.

768
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,520
I think Matt, Matt Fernley, he
did, he did, he did this

769
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:16,800
analysis.
Copper inventories have been

770
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,960
going up at the same time that
copper prices have and that,

771
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,440
that, that just doesn't make
sense to me.

772
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:27,360
This is, I don't think this is a
sustainable price move.

773
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,600
So I'm just waiting for this to
come down in a big way before

774
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:35,360
getting into copper again for
the other market, the big market

775
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:41,200
is green metal market is nickel.
Again, very weird dynamics.

776
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:47,360
The Chinese went into Indonesia,
created a massive amount of new

777
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,960
capacity and essentially new
supply there such that in the

778
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:54,080
space of about five years, they
transformed Indonesia into the

779
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,040
largest nickel producer in the
world.

780
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,120
To the, to the extent that now
the, I think the government is

781
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,520
stepping in to, to restrict the
amount of nickel that is being

782
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:09,560
produced.
So again, to me, this is not

783
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:14,480
really a fundamentally driven
supply demand economics and

784
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:18,200
therefore I would not be too
long in this market.

785
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:25,400
Yeah, aluminium, vanadium even.
Let's let's go weird niche ones.

786
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:27,720
Real niche ones.
Aluminium.

787
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:32,440
Very difficult, huge market for
for for very different reasons.

788
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,320
Not really a green transition
metal in my mind.

789
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,640
Yes, it's used for.
Transmission lines.

790
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,880
Transmission lines and all that,
but how much of how much of that

791
00:49:43,240 --> 00:49:45,960
is, is that in relation to the
aluminium market, right.

792
00:49:46,920 --> 00:49:51,160
And the other one for medium
technological challenges, I

793
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:54,680
might say competitiveness with
the other battery solutions.

794
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:59,480
I, I love talking to you every
time we do YJ and you, you, you

795
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:02,600
challenge my cynicism and I get
bullish on, on, on everything.

796
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,720
So it's, it's wonderful to
speak.

797
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:08,560
Really, really enjoyed it.
Anything that you want to leave

798
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:10,760
our listeners with that we
haven't gotten to speak about

799
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:14,560
today?
Well, could I put a shameless

800
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:17,480
block here and say that here at
the Arcane Green Meadow Fund, we

801
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,640
are still, we are still in a
very early stage of the mouth

802
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:24,360
here, the commodity bull market
and I am still, still looking

803
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:26,560
for new investors.
So please hit me up a few.

804
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:30,520
More 165% years and I think fun
will take care of itself.

805
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,640
Right on mate.
Oh gosh.

806
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:37,200
OK, OK, yeah, on on this point,
you know, it's essentially in I

807
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,760
am actually telling my
investors, hey guys, let's let's

808
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,360
be real, last year was a great
blowout year.

809
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:46,320
Please temper your expectations.
I can't deliver another 165%

810
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:49,640
this year I think.
Awesome to chat as always YJ, I

811
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:51,440
really appreciate you making the
time for us.

812
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:53,800
Oh, awesome.
Thank you guys.

813
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:56,720
There we go Trev.
Always fantastic to speak with

814
00:50:56,720 --> 00:51:01,000
YJ and get a awesome view into
the battery metals markets.

815
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:05,560
Very keen to check in 20-30 if
not five times before then on

816
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:08,400
how this fast growing lithium
market goes.

817
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,720
Massive thank you to our awesome
partners Stand at Ground

818
00:51:10,720 --> 00:51:14,080
Support, focus the Platform by
Market Tech, Intralinks, and

819
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:16,720
Exceed Capital.
No, Australia.

820
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:20,640
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

821
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,080
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

822
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,680
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read our

823
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:26,200
disclaimer.