The Spine-Tingling Metals Bull Market (John Forwood)

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We're almost starting to see
gold and silver go exponential,

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so it's not to say that those
medals can't go a lot further

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from here, but it'd be
interesting to have a chat about

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some of the signals that are
indicating that that is possibly

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going to happen.
G'day gents, sorry about that.

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Just to have to jump off another
call.

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Oh, that's OK.
We're normally the ones that are

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a little bit late, John.
We're we're looking forward to

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chatting, John.
No, no pleasure.

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It's a good time of year.
Not too, not too busy yet,

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although it's ramping up.
Can't wait to talk about all of

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that with you, John.
But first, we've got to shout

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out to Exceed Capital JD.
Many of our listeners, they

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invest in mining stocks, they're
watching their portfolios go

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parabolic, and they're trying to
avoid the catastrophe that comes

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with an inevitable.
Down cycle Arabolic Mate, I hope

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all the money miners out there
are basking in their portfolios,

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but you should think about
commercial property Exceed

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capital, a group out of Brizzy.
They have a long term track

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record and they invest alongside
their partners which like we

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love Mate and they've got a
brand new property trust.

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The SP property trust mate these
this is as good as it gets 8%

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cash returns plus capital uplift
is what's being targeted here

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and I think you and I need some
property in our portfolio

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because our.
A grade commercial office

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buildings, good tenants in
there, you've got the Queensland

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government, you've got people
like Bupa in there as well and

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they're offering monthly
distributions, so I'm sure that

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interests a lot of the money
miners out there.

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You can find out a whole lot
more on the show notes.

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That sounds less risky than my
spec spec miners.

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What an absolutely enormous
month January's turning out to

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be.
Share prices are volatile as

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ever companies are are reporting
with surprises to the ups and

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downs.
It's it's.

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Crazy up, Mostly up.
Mostly up today, today down as

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as the US rug pulls price
floors.

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John, none of this really
worries you too much because you

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find Alpha at the very small end
of town.

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You're the the the micro cap
savant of ASX resources.

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Not just ASX, but your
performance.

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I'll take that as a compliment.
Absolutely is John Forward of

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Lau Resource Funds Management.
Congrats on what was about 125%

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return in Cy 25 and and January
is already gangbusters when I

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looked at the LRT NAV per share.
So Congrats as usual is our

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response to you.
We're really keen to find out

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where you're finding value in
the small end of town lately.

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Thanks for joining us.
Look, thank you for having me on

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again.
Look, it's a wonderful time to

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be in the sector.
Some really fantastic tailwinds

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from from the metals markets
almost across the board.

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And so, yeah, you know, when
you've got your sales set right

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to catch those wins, you can you
can have a very enjoyable

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journey.
And there's quite a few

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tailwinds out there at the
moment.

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John, what are you, what are you
most excited by?

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What sort of pocket of the
market, what commodity or or or

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company is kind of capturing
your your imagination at the

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moment?
Yeah.

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Look, that's a really quite a
tough question.

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I guess what you probably want
to be looking for arguably is

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pockets of the market that
haven't haven't run, run yet.

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So obviously, you know, precious
metals have run pretty hard, but

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also some, you know, a lot of
base industrial metals and

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minerals have have had a, have
had a great few months or, or

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six months.
Not to say, you know, we're

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almost starting to see, you
know, gold and silver go

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exponential.
So it's not to say that those

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metals can't go a lot, a lot
further from here.

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It'd be interesting to have a
chat about some of the signals

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that that are indicating that
that is possibly going to

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happen.
But I think perhaps some of the,

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you know, more overlooked,
overlooked sectors, you know,

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perhaps some of the more niche,
niche metals, You know, we saw

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uranium go overnight last night
to over 100 bucks a pound or

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back to 100 bucks a pound in the
spot market.

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So I think that's perhaps one
just just to pick one where

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there's particularly in the, in
the space that we play the, the,

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the real junior explorer space,
which hasn't, you know, you

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know, multi bagged a lot of them
haven't multi bagged yet the,

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the, the, the real junior
uranium explorer.

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So I think there's some pretty
interesting opportunities there.

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I continue to think not so much
in the obviously the metals

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market, but in the energy
market.

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While there's, you know, the G,
the G word, the glut word for

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oil is being bandied around very
regularly.

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I continue to think there are
some signals there where oil

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could do pretty well this year.
And we, we have seen it, you

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know, tick up as the US dollar
ticks down.

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So there's just a couple of of
areas where, you know, we're

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having a bit of a closer look.
Yeah, use the word, the word

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like, you know, set the sails in
a, in a bull market earlier.

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And like I just wonder how you
balance that dynamic of wanting

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to, to to ride these enormous
tailwinds that come from like a,

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a precious and and base LED bull
market at the moment.

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And then make sure you're kind
of, yeah, also set up for, for

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the next cyclical hated thing to
become in favor as well, which

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is the way you make money in
commodities.

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Exactly.
So I think you know, we still

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see some great upside for junior
gold equities.

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A lot of them, you know, are not
trading at, you know, P nabs of,

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you know, 10 or 20% of their
underlying NPV depends which,

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which medals price you plug into
your models.

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But yeah, there's still upside
on that basis in terms of

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underlying project NPVS and
potentially there's still upside

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in in metals as well.
So certainly you know, a lot of

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positives there, but I think
it's prudent, you know, to to

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look at these sectors which
haven't haven't run yet and

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perhaps deploy some capital into
the unloved sectors rather than

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jumping on too many bandwagons.
Before we jump deeper into gold

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there, John, I, I'm kind of
curious at a, at a kind of

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sentiment level to, to
understand when you think about

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your portfolio right now and
everything's doing so well.

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Are you more inclined to be just
adding to the to the cash pile

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or are you still pretty eager to
put stuff, put money to work in,

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in new opportunities that you're
seeing pop up?

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Yeah, it's a bit of a balance.
I mean, you know we the product

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that we present to the
investment market is to provide

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exposure to the junior resources
and exploration sector.

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So we need to continue to do
that.

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But you know, while markets are
are really hot there and it is

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prudent to, you know, trim, trim
some holdings and, and, and, you

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know, as they say, you never go
broke taking a profit.

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So yeah, we're we're doing it.
We're doing a bit of both I.

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Don't think you're in any danger
of going broke with your

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portfolio returns, John.
But let's let's jump into some

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of those gold names You picked
Astro, I think as your your

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highest conviction call when we
when we briefly spoke with you

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would have been early or
mid-december there and Astral

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hasn't moved too much since
then.

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The opportunity is still kind of
present as is the case with a

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lot of those kind of
development, pre development

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stage Goldie.
So how are you kind of thinking

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about that pocket of the market
right now?

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And if you if you want to go
into some of the names, we're

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more than happy to.
Yeah, Astral's a good a good

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example.
And I should say it hasn't moved

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too much while the gold price
has jumped.

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And I have to confess I haven't,
you know, plugged $7700 Aussie

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into my model for Astral.
But you know, it would be

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trading at, you know, cents on
the dollar in terms of AP NAV at

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the moment.
So that there's there's massive,

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there's massive upside there,
whether you know it, you know,

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realizes that and and it you
know, it will it will start to

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realize that over the next next
12 to to 24 months, I believe

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so, yeah.
You know, and obviously there's

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a number of gold producers who
wouldn't mind having that asset

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whose cash coffers are bursting,
who who could could easily make

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a make a play for something like
something like Astral.

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So, and it doesn't have to be,
in my view, it doesn't have to

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be something, it doesn't have to
be a a player in that same

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geography.
You know, some of the best, some

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of the best ASX listed gold
companies are offshore, you

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know, Emerald and Perseus and
WAFF etcetera, creating huge

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amounts of cash.
And maybe they're interested in

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having something.
Well, Emerald does have

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something, but others, you know,
interested in having something

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more back in, back in good old,
good old WA.

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And yeah, interesting.
I think it was on your e-mail

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this morning talking about, you
know, or sort of mutterings

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about, you know, some of the
majors who haven't got gold

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exposure starting to scratch
their heads and thinks think

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maybe that wasn't such a great
idea.

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So yeah, you know, there's,
there's, there's some

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interesting M&A angles emerging
for something like Astral.

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It's funny what a bull market
does, isn't it?

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The I look at your yeah, the the
advanced set of gold developers

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that yeah, you have in the
portfolio Astral Medallion,

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Saturn.
Like, you know, these are these

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are advanced projects W
Australian gold gold developers.

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But I can't help but notice the
emissions of the, you know, the

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peers in that cohort, if that
makes sense.

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Like Oz Oz gold seems like an
omission and and and bright star

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as as another peer.
There might be some others I'm

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missing like MI 6 or, or the
likes.

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Like what's the rationale for
for favouring the three you do

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over over the other peers?
Oh, look, you know, I think

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partly, you know, you can't be,
you can't be in everything.

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And you know, some of those
names that you just mentioned,

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you know, fabulous got fabulous
management's making great

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strides in getting to or
increasing their their

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production.
So, yeah, you know, having said

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that, I guess bright stars, you
know, not really in a in a

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hitting zone being being an
existing, existing producer,

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although I think, you know, Alex
and the management Fabulous.

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Yeah.
Osgold, yeah, we've looked at

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that many times really, you
know, think it's a great, it's a

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great project and starting to
gain some momentum.

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So, yeah, you know, it's just
really a judgement call and, you

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know, 1, you know, 1 stock will
do better than another from

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time, from time to time.
So yeah, you know, and and so

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you know, just hope that you've
you've made, you've timed it

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right.
If we look at some of the other

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Goldies that you hold, Free Gold
Ventures, not a company I'm I'm

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intimately familiar with, but
just doing a bit of reading

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earlier, a big, big number of
answers and there's, there's a

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number of these kind of projects
out there where it's just like

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a, a staggering number of
answers that they've got.

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It'll take a, a long time to
kind of get that online.

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But what, what's the kind of
thesis?

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This one's up in Alaska near
Pogo for.

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For those that aren't too
intimately familiar with it, how

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do you kind of think about it as
part of your portfolio?

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Look, you know that's relatively
low grade, but you know,

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depending on you know, whether
you take indicated or inferred

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oz into account, it's it's well
over 20 million, 20 million oz

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about at about a gram.
The Golden Summit project.

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Yeah, it's we, we do like to
have some of those type of

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investments in the portfolio for
particularly for metals where we

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think that it's got really the
metal price got really good

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upside and the low grade
provides fantastic, fantastic

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leverage.
So, yeah, free gold ventures

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TSXV listed market cap creeping
up, you know, but you know, at

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about 7:00 or 800 million
Canadian, you know, pick, pick

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your number.
Still a very low EV per Oz has

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some challenges on the on the on
the metallurgy front.

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But if you compare it to say
Degrey and Hemi, much bigger

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project, similar grade, probably
similar geographic challenges,

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you know, might even be better
to be, you know, just next to

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Fort Knox in, in, in Alaska.
So yeah, you know, very,

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relatively very undervalued, you
know, compared to something like

222
00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,360
degree.
What you just described then

223
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,600
this, yeah, this, this
comfortability owning the the,

224
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:42,040
the very large scale kind of low
grade sort of out of the out of

225
00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,360
the out of the money call option
type deposits is, is something

226
00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:48,840
I've really, yeah, I've, I've
really paid attention to with

227
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:50,800
with Lyle over the last couple
of years.

228
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:54,520
I remember the first time that
we we ever spoke, John and I

229
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,840
remember looking at the
portfolio and, and there were

230
00:13:57,840 --> 00:14:01,240
names in like at the time, you
know, gold, gold was not what it

231
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:02,240
is and couple was not what it
is.

232
00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,160
And you had like names in there
like satin and caravel, which

233
00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,080
just get get knocked on by the
market, especially back back

234
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:10,640
then substantially.
And I'm really thinking, what

235
00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,160
are you guys doing?
Like because of the my, my, my,

236
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,160
my, my, my thoughts at the time
thinking you've got to be in the

237
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,840
higher quality stuff that's near
attempt to development to make

238
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,320
the most money.
But what I've observed is the

239
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:26,360
astounding returns that you can
get being in the the lower grade

240
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:28,840
large scale stuff that can
really benefit from the torque

241
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:32,480
as the commodity cycle kind of
turns and there's a wave there.

242
00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,440
And then you get that that kind
of option like dynamic going in

243
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,120
the money with enormous
leverage.

244
00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,840
And it feels, feels like, yeah,
free chord fits in that

245
00:14:39,840 --> 00:14:41,720
category.
It also feels like another one

246
00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:46,240
that you've recently been adding
to Alma Metals fits into that

247
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:47,720
category too.
Would that be correct?

248
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:52,520
Yeah, look, Alma is like the
little brother to to Caravel.

249
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,280
Yes, you know, part of the same,
you know, management or, you

250
00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,600
know, management house.
But yeah, these projects,

251
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,800
they're low grade, but they
generally have, you know,

252
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,480
attributes, like a lot of other
attributes that make them

253
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:12,800
really, you know, compelling
for, you know, strip ratio

254
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:18,840
metallurgy infrastructure.
Yeah, You know, so yeah, you,

255
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:22,960
you, you plug that into a model
and you can get, you know, even

256
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:27,360
at lower metal prices, you can
get some pretty nice numbers.

257
00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:35,600
Having said that, it is you do
have to have some faith in

258
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,840
getting over the capital hurdle
for some of these big CapEx

259
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,680
projects.
And you mentioned Caravel, so

260
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:46,440
they've got the Adani Group
involved now.

261
00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:50,440
And there's a, you know, looks
like a good chance that there

262
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:55,480
could be a capital solution in
partnership with with Adani

263
00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:59,200
who've obviously got extremely
deep pockets and want to get

264
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:03,840
hold of the copper concentrate
to treat in, in India.

265
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,120
So, yeah, you do have to take
bit of a leap of faith when it's

266
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:11,320
a very big CapEx that are, you
know, a minnow in terms of

267
00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,920
market cap can attract the
funding.

268
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:19,560
It's yeah in the case of of Alma
that they are interesting to

269
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,200
comp with with Caravel, Caravel
now, right both like like not

270
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:28,400
too dissimilar in in grade, but
but Caravel's closer to $300

271
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:33,240
million market cap more advanced
and Alma like you know closer to

272
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:38,040
$40 million market cap and and
like 40K's from from Gladstone.

273
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:40,560
Yeah.
Do you?

274
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,120
Do you kind of look at the
relative value between the two?

275
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,200
Now and and have have have a
more favorable position size

276
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,920
accordingly?
Yeah, obviously, you know,

277
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:56,240
holding in Caravel has has grown
with the market cap moving up

278
00:16:56,280 --> 00:17:00,560
and and that really, you know,
has been catalyzed by the

279
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:07,160
involvement of Adani.
So yeah, you know, almost a

280
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,240
fairway back in terms of the
development and you know,

281
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,960
feasibility study work compared
to to caravel, but and it may

282
00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:21,440
take a number of years to for it
to come through to that in a

283
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,359
similar stage.
So, yeah, you know, our, our

284
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:30,280
philosophy is always, you know,
keep powder dry for these these

285
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,440
little companies which do need
to regularly come back to the

286
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:38,080
market to raise capital.
So, you know, when those

287
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:43,240
companies hit their hit their
milestones, add the value and we

288
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:47,760
still see good value in them.
You know, we'll, we'll keep

289
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:52,000
investing and you know that that
can take a number of years, as

290
00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:53,640
as has been the case with
Caravel.

291
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,720
That that element metals JD 30
million ton per annum kind of

292
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:02,040
conceptual target production if
it advances into a mining in in

293
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:06,720
the future that is enormous,
enormous and that's because it's

294
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,880
going to be open pit, which
unfortunately means they can't

295
00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:11,360
have ground support but.
They can put an order in any

296
00:18:11,360 --> 00:18:13,600
way, and they should.
They should put an order in

297
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,160
anyway.
I know a lot of other

298
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:16,640
underground copper mines around
the world.

299
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,600
Underground mines around the
world are putting in DSI orders

300
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,160
all the time.
Sandic ground support used to be

301
00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,120
called DSI.
I still think of DSI sometimes.

302
00:18:24,120 --> 00:18:25,680
I know you probably do as well
if you're ordering it.

303
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,040
JD Why should people use
standard ground support?

304
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,400
First and foremost, it is the
best ground support in the

305
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:32,840
industry.
You need to keep your workers

306
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,640
safe.
That is top of the pile for any

307
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,720
mine site.
So you should be using the

308
00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:41,360
industry's best ground support.
And secondly, they are reliable.

309
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:43,040
They produce this stuff here in
Australia, mate.

310
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:46,240
You can order it on an app or
you can give Derek Herd a phone

311
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:47,680
call if you want to get in touch
with Derek.

312
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:49,600
But they're just a couple of the
reasons why.

313
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:51,280
And thirdly, I'm going to give
you a third reason.

314
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,560
Trev tell me they are at the
bleeding edge of R&D when it

315
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,240
comes to ground support.
They are always investing more

316
00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,200
in their business so that you
are getting a better product and

317
00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,240
if that hasn't convinced you, I
don't know what will.

318
00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:05,520
I'm convinced already I don't
even need it myself, but I want

319
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,320
I want to put an order.
In we're getting an order in.

320
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,680
You should get your orders in to
find out more in the show notes

321
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,280
or give Derek Hertical go
Sandvik grant support.

322
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,480
On that note, Jim, we've seen so
many capital raises in

323
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,560
particular like since we've come
back this year, some monster

324
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,920
capital raises relative to the
size of of some of these

325
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:22,600
companies.
Have you still been pretty

326
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,160
inclined in January this year to
keep writing checks so you're a

327
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,240
bit more reserved than you might
have been 12 months ago, six

328
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,480
months ago?
Yeah, good.

329
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,480
Good question.
No, we're still, we're still

330
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:41,560
very much, you know, investing.
I think what, you know, it's

331
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:46,800
this sort of virtuous circle or
cycle if you like, that as the

332
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,800
metal prices go up, the value,
everything else being equal, the

333
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:56,440
value of the underlying project
goes up and the ability to raise

334
00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,480
capital to achieve that
crystallize or achieve that

335
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:07,360
value goes up as well.
So that the size of the prize is

336
00:20:07,360 --> 00:20:10,880
bigger and the likelihood of
achieving that prize is higher.

337
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,120
So you get this, you know, great
double whammy, double whammy

338
00:20:14,120 --> 00:20:17,720
effect and.
In terms of exploration

339
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:23,520
companies, so much better to
have a, a big budget.

340
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,920
OK, you've got to, you know,
take the dilution.

341
00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,320
But if you've got a small budget
that's only going to give you a

342
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,240
couple of 1000 meters of
drilling, you got no margin for

343
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,440
error.
You go out there and OK, you

344
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:39,000
test a few theories, they don't
come up, you're sort of dead in

345
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:41,040
the water.
But if you've got a, you know,

346
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:46,640
10, twenty, 30,000 meter drill
budget that OK, you can, you can

347
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,200
drill a few dusters, you can
make a few mistakes, you can

348
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,160
test a few wild theories that
don't come off.

349
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,640
But hopefully just the law of,
you know, averages and that, you

350
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,560
know, the number of meters you
drill is going to reward you and

351
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,600
and give you that market success
that'll that'll allow you to,

352
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,840
you know, raise more money.
So, yeah, you know, we're

353
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,960
actually preferring to see, you
know, companies that are

354
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,120
raising, raising bigger, bigger
leaks of capital rather than

355
00:21:14,120 --> 00:21:17,720
just do the, you know, half
$1,000,000, stay alive, stay

356
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,400
alive raising.
You can get some fantastic

357
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,000
opportunities if you if you
invest in those just before the

358
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,920
market turns.
But I think right now it's it's

359
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,680
almost the best of times.
Yeah, it'd be fantastic to see

360
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,720
some more discoveries come
through in the pipeline in the

361
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,840
next 6 to 12 months on the on
the back of these checks being

362
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,480
written, there's.
I'm sure.

363
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,320
I'm sure we will, yeah.
There's a couple more

364
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,800
commodities that I'm very keen
to jump into, John.

365
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,600
I want to start with the sort of
basket of PGMS.

366
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:50,000
And one of your biggest holdings
is SPD and Ding, Ding, Ding.

367
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,720
We own a couple of that one.
But I'm curious to hear because

368
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,880
that's obviously had a fantastic
run on the back of platinum and

369
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,120
Palladium as well to a lesser
extent, just performing really,

370
00:22:00,120 --> 00:22:02,840
really strongly.
So how are you thinking about

371
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,800
those sorts of positions now
where the tailwind is, you know,

372
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,240
blown them to be such a, such a
larger market cap that perhaps

373
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,280
they can get those bigger checks
to actually develop a a project?

374
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,520
Yeah, indeed.
Look, you know, that's that's

375
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:22,040
another one where you get the
virtuous circle effect.

376
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:27,600
But you know, it's been there
for a while, you know, the

377
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,640
fundamentals of the PGM market,
Platinum in particular, you

378
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:37,320
know, shortfalls or deficits,
this, you know, 2025 and

379
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:41,800
projected for the next 5 years.
I think, you know that the death

380
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,000
of the ICA was greatly over
exaggerated.

381
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,280
So yeah, it's a little bit, you
know, like the silver market,

382
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,280
there's the investment in
jewelry aspect to PGMS, but

383
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:59,760
there's also the industrial use
which is is becoming more or

384
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,480
remaining remaining more more
important.

385
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,480
So fundamentals are very good
for PGMS.

386
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:14,360
And what you have often seen in
the past is for autocads, you

387
00:23:14,360 --> 00:23:17,040
know, when platinum gets
significantly more expensive

388
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:21,120
than Palladium, you know,
they'll be switching from from

389
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,360
platinum to Palladium and vice
versa.

390
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:29,280
But both of those PGMS have run
quite hard.

391
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,920
You know, platinums, you know, a
premium to Palladium at the

392
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:36,600
moment, but you're not going to
see, you know, that that massive

393
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,640
incentive, or at least you don't
at the moment from switching one

394
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,640
to the other and leaving,
leaving one out in the cold.

395
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:47,320
And also you know, with Southern
Palladium, they do have, they

396
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:48,640
call themselves Southern
Palladium.

397
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,280
They talk about they were going
to change their name to Southern

398
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,880
Platinum.
And they cancelled it too, yeah.

399
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,560
Yeah, flipped and flopped.
Good chance of of rhodium in

400
00:23:56,560 --> 00:24:00,120
there as well. 30% of the
rhodium, yeah.

401
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:01,600
Doesn't roll off the tongue
quite as well.

402
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:04,800
It's interesting you talk about
like the discounted NAV that

403
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:07,880
these, these developers were
and, and, and like in the case

404
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:14,640
of SPD, like almost all of the,
the yeah, the, the, the, the

405
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,240
Platts plays trade at this
perpetual discount.

406
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,880
Even like Teresa as an
interesting comp listed on the

407
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,040
on the London exchange.
But with the with the mining in

408
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:27,600
South Africa there, I think
they've always sort of traded

409
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,920
around like, you know, point
point 6.5 times NAV And that's

410
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,240
allowed them to just reinvest
capital, grow scale, add more

411
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,800
circuits, etcetera at a very in
a very creative way.

412
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:42,640
Like the the history and ability
of of the yeah of reinvesting

413
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,000
capital creatively from these
like Platts miners is kind of

414
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,240
yeah for the large part pretty,
pretty astounding, but but

415
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,280
frustrating as a shareholder
when you perpetually trade at a

416
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:58,080
discount then.
Yeah, I think, yeah, you know,

417
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:03,920
there's definitely AS South
African discount and you know,

418
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:09,080
that's probably a factor or
obviously a factor for Southern

419
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:14,320
Palladium and they are they have
been waiting on their mining,

420
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:19,040
the issue of their mining right,
which is hopefully going to come

421
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,080
out any day.
But I think that's something

422
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:27,200
that when it when it happens,
hopefully when not if it will

423
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,920
give Southern Palladium a, a
rewrite.

424
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:36,400
But yeah, you know say gold in
WA, you could expect to to see

425
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:42,200
you know, valuations they had on
occasion traded a premium and

426
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,560
they do traded a premium to the
NPV.

427
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,920
Much harder to achieve that
with, you know, an asset in,

428
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,000
well, probably pretty much
anywhere in Africa.

429
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,360
And when you think about your
skill set specifically and how

430
00:25:55,360 --> 00:26:00,240
you like to invest, John, SPD is
sooner or later going to get to

431
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:01,840
the point where they're going to
try and build the project.

432
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,160
We're talking about getting the
mining permit and these these

433
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,240
sorts of things.
Does that become the point in

434
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,560
time where you think not my
ability to kind of generate

435
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,320
alpha here is, is a bit dampened
or do you think there's still a

436
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,200
drill program that they can do
that you're excited by and

437
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,720
there's a that kind of
expiration type lens to it on

438
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:22,360
the margins?
Yeah, look, you know, it, it is

439
00:26:22,360 --> 00:26:24,720
a massive, it's a massive
resource.

440
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:29,400
I think it's something like 40
million ounces of of PGMS plus

441
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,400
gold.
So, yeah, you know, they're

442
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,640
still on an EV per oz very,
very, very, very cheap.

443
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,920
We do, yeah.
You know that, that, that valley

444
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,840
of death on the Lausanne curve,
you know, we do try and avoid

445
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:51,080
that, but sometimes, yeah, you
know, if you can see still very

446
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,680
deep value you you're hopefully
that they hopefully that can

447
00:26:54,680 --> 00:27:00,280
make the leap across the valley
or you know, the it's, it's a

448
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:04,840
nice short, nice short dip.
So you know, it's a case by case

449
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,000
basis.
But yeah, look, in general,

450
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,040
we're really focused on that
first uplift on the Lausanne

451
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280
curve.
But we do have a number of

452
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,560
stocks, you know, like Astral
that are much more on that

453
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,280
second, second phase of uplift
on the Lausanne curve.

454
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,360
Yeah, that, that, that makes a
lot of sense.

455
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,120
John, you mentioned silver
earlier and, and I think you use

456
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:27,320
the words exponential, which I
think you, you very rightly use

457
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,880
given the, the appreciation
we've seen in such a short

458
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,320
period of time.
You hold a couple stocks that

459
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,320
I'm curious to talk about.
So Unico, USL and, and Mithril

460
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,600
both fall into that basket and
they've, they've performed quite

461
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,080
well.
You know, Unico's gone from the

462
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,880
50s to the, to the 90s cents per
per share.

463
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,520
And I'm, I'm curious now that
they're at a level, I think

464
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,160
Unico's about a $600 million
company really had a bunch of

465
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,640
kind of prospects there in, in
South America.

466
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,160
How, how you think about that
appreciation in such such a

467
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,520
short period of time, you know,
relative to, to kind of

468
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,680
everything else we've, we've
seen how, how that sits in the

469
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,840
portfolio.
Yeah.

470
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:11,000
So Unico it's sort of jostling
in our portfolio to be biggest

471
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:16,520
holding, you know with with
Astral and SPD and Medallion not

472
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,920
not far behind.
So yeah, it's it's an important,

473
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,840
important stock for us.
But having said that, I think it

474
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:27,880
probably makes up about 5% of
the portfolio.

475
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:33,320
And we do, you know, you
mentioned those two stocks, they

476
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,360
are our main exposure to to
silver.

477
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:41,520
So we do want to maintain our
maintain our exposure to silver.

478
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,680
We are always, you know,
reviewing, reviewing new, new

479
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,480
opportunities.
But yeah, look, you know, silver

480
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:58,360
has had an amazing, amazing run.
But I think, yeah, as I say, it

481
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,920
could, it could hit an air
pocket, the silver price.

482
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:07,520
But they're there are some
indicators that say, OK, you

483
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:12,480
know, we ain't seen nothing yet
in in precious, in precious

484
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,800
metals.
So, yeah, look, you know, as a

485
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:22,840
as a counter to have exposure to
silver Unico is, is, is and is

486
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:27,800
and has been a fantastic,
fantastic way to have exposure.

487
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,920
Having said that, you know it is
silver equivalent.

488
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:34,640
It is very hard to find and same
with mithril.

489
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,560
You know mithril is a gold
silver project, probably with

490
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:45,120
more more silver, more gold than
silver and Unico similarly, you

491
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,960
know gold, silver and some some
base metals making up those

492
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,880
silver cool announces you.
Said, you said there's some some

493
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,240
indicators that we hadn't seen
nothing yet with the precious

494
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,520
bull run.
What are those indicators?

495
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,960
Look, you know, there's, there's
numerous factors, you know, this

496
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:07,520
broad theme of sell America, I
think is, is important in, in

497
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,760
precious metals.
But other interesting things

498
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:17,280
that are happening, you know,
reading about the worries that

499
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:22,920
Bitcoin owners now have that
quantum quantum computing might

500
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:24,840
be able to crack some of the
Bitcoin wallets.

501
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:30,880
That's that's that's apparently
drawing some money out of

502
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,560
Bitcoin and possibly other
cryptos back into into precious

503
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,680
metals.
And, you know, you don't have to

504
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:46,120
have too much imagination to see
a massive fear trade come come

505
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,760
out, you know, of, of crypto if
people get to really start to

506
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,520
get worried about that.
But also, you know, some good

507
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:59,840
research by Sean Russo, Noah's
rule on the Gold Bond, the US

508
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:06,760
Treasuries ratio, you know, back
in 79 when that hit 2, the the

509
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,120
gold that that ratio went
exponential.

510
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:15,720
So, yeah, we're at 2 now and we
are starting to see, you know,

511
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:19,440
gold go exponential, you know,
200 bucks last up, 200 bucks

512
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,000
last night.
So yeah, there's a few factors

513
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:28,320
there which, you know, you know,
you don't have to have a lot of

514
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,360
imagination to see, you know,
PL.

515
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,520
Asan I think came out last year
and said, OK, I'm calling gold

516
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:38,160
to was it $17,000 an ounce?
And I think, you know, one of

517
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:42,000
his factors was, you know,
Chinese, Chinese investment.

518
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:47,760
So there's a lot of, you know, a
confluence of factors which are

519
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,120
really positive for precious
metals at the moment.

520
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,960
To the to the to the.
Buying 2 tons a week as well.

521
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,160
In saying yeah, they've made 5
billion on paper in the in the

522
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,320
last little while alone.
It's it's crazy.

523
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,680
They're very saying they want to
be the world's central bank for

524
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,440
all their gold holdings, yeah.
It's deeply concerning when we

525
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,840
look around the world and we,
we, we talk about these things

526
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,280
despite it being good for our
speculative portfolios.

527
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,560
It's yeah, it's quite, quite
opening, John.

528
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:20,840
There's a, there's a number of
non precious related commodities

529
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,720
and and companies in, in your
portfolio and a number that I'm

530
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:26,000
kind of curious to, to just
touch on as well.

531
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,520
So quickly on the the rare
earths kind of pocket Brazilian

532
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,000
critical minerals is 1 you've
held.

533
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,360
And I'm really curious about
this one because I had someone

534
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,520
come up to me in December and
say this was their highest

535
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:38,720
conviction call.
They're excited by it from a

536
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:40,360
from a technical kind of
perspective.

537
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,000
Part of that might have been
relative to some of the other

538
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,000
names that have performed quite
strongly in that space.

539
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,200
But I'm curious to, to hear from
you White.

540
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:49,800
White has its place in your
portfolio.

541
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:56,040
Yeah, it's actually our only
rare earths investment at the

542
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:57,920
moment.
And perhaps that sort of

543
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:03,720
reflects our focus as much as
the comp, the companies in that

544
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:08,080
you know, we are not
metallurgists by by background,

545
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:11,440
you're much more geological sort
of focus.

546
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:19,240
So what we like about BCM is the
very, very simple potential

547
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:24,360
processing route that they've
got in front of them, which is

548
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:30,840
really a in situ Leech and then
a bunch of very basic

549
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:34,200
precipitation tanks to produce
an M rec.

550
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:44,720
So that leads to hopefully very
simple operation compared to

551
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:51,520
relatively complex operations
for for, for example, the, you

552
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:57,080
know, the ironic clays.
And, and while this very simple

553
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:03,360
in situ leach process is not
applied really in many places at

554
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:08,440
all in the wet in Western
companies, it is very well

555
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:12,600
established in China, Myanmar
and to a lesser extent in

556
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:18,960
Malaysia.
So yeah, Andrew Reed, the MD of

557
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:24,440
BCM, he says he gets he gets
goosebumps thinking about the

558
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:29,040
potential of this this project
because it is ideally suited to

559
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,280
this looks to be ideally suited
to this Institute Leech CapEx,

560
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:39,320
you know, well less than 50
million US and very, very, very,

561
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:45,040
very low, low OpEx.
So yeah, potentially a fabulous

562
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,679
project and you know, we look
for the 10 baggers and

563
00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:51,280
potentially BCM is is well more
than A10 bagger.

564
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,600
I get, I get goosebumps from
having you on the on the potty,

565
00:34:54,639 --> 00:34:56,960
John, because last time we had
you on, you talked about Alvo

566
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,360
and I think the next day the
stock was up like 40%.

567
00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:04,560
Yeah, Alvo's another, you know,
really exciting Brazilian play.

568
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,400
So yeah, you know, there's a lot
going on in in Brazil.

569
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,520
I'd love like this is pseudo
precious in some respects, but

570
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:17,280
Talon Metals a key holding of of
the fund and what a

571
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,720
transformational year that that
business has had.

572
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,920
You know, if you if you had the
combination of the discovery and

573
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,080
the wicked deal with with the
Lundanes, I think I think it's

574
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,560
one year performance is nearly
800%, which is just kind of

575
00:35:30,720 --> 00:35:35,240
astounding shareholder return.
Did you ride that whole 700 or

576
00:35:35,240 --> 00:35:38,880
800% job?
Yeah, look, you know, it was a

577
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,600
bit of down and up for us.
We've been in that for a long

578
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,000
time.
Yeah, Yeah.

579
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:47,200
Look, you know, it is a very
simple investment thesis to have

580
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,200
critical minerals in, in the US
You know, they probably should

581
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,120
rename, rename themselves
American Nickel or something

582
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,560
like that.
Then they'd get another double

583
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:02,280
or something.
But remarkable to see, you know,

584
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:07,080
that deal with the Lundenes
where talent is acquiring an

585
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:12,840
operating nickel, nickel mine,
the only one in, in the US for

586
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,720
roughly $200 million.
And, you know, they're the,

587
00:36:16,720 --> 00:36:19,840
they're the major, they're the,
the, you know, the dominant

588
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,760
part, part party in that
transaction, you know, the

589
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:28,000
exploration companies, you know,
dominating the production

590
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:31,440
company.
So that just shows the value

591
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:36,160
that is being attributed to the
exploration portfolio.

592
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:42,560
And this is potentially a, the
Tamarack nickel project in, in

593
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:48,040
Minnesota, potentially a, you
know, generational discovery.

594
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,800
It's taken a, you know, it's
been a sort of a slow burn if

595
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:53,720
you like.
But you know, some of their

596
00:36:53,720 --> 00:36:59,680
intersections are super high
grade PGMS, super high grade

597
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,640
copper, super high grade nickel.
So it's sort of like, OK, this

598
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,000
could be a nickel mine on zone,
it could be a copper mine on

599
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:06,680
zones, could be a PGM mine on
zone.

600
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:09,440
But they're in, in some zones,
they're all all together.

601
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,880
So it is, it is super exciting.
It's very challenging from a

602
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:19,600
permitting point of view.
That's yeah.

603
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:23,080
You know, I think the the
geology is, you know, it's spine

604
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,800
tingling.
Spine tingling.

605
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,080
Spine tingling.
We like that.

606
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,360
It's a big market cap now,
nearly eight, $8 billion.

607
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,920
I've had to refresh the screen a
a couple times to make sure this

608
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:38,120
was the same talent that we were
looking at from about 12 months

609
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,800
ago, you know, so the, the story
has changed quite dramatically.

610
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,360
And credit to them, it's it's
been a hell of a ride.

611
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:45,440
Should we talk about Black
Canyon?

612
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,080
Yes, customary Ding, Ding, Ding
from the three of us here, John.

613
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:50,800
Yeah, this is a big Ding, Ding,
Ding.

614
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:54,320
But you have a world more of
technical expertise than than

615
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:55,840
the two of us put together,
John.

616
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,480
So I'm very curious to hear how
you think about this project

617
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,600
evolving and the the nature of
this, this kind of project being

618
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:06,640
close to surface within a part
of the world that knows mining

619
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:08,360
inside out and all these sorts
of things.

620
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,520
Another discovery here, the One
Danya project in the Pilbara.

621
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,720
Take it away, John.
Yeah, look, I was lucky enough

622
00:38:14,720 --> 00:38:19,880
to go up and have a have a look
on site late late last year.

623
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,000
I was.
With you, Brendan Cummins and

624
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,760
the team.
Great, great site visit.

625
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:30,120
It's it's remarkable.
It's it, it could be, you know,

626
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,560
a world class, almost
generational discovery.

627
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,360
Yeah.
High grade, high grade manganese

628
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:43,480
at surface, shallow dipping.
You know the early, early look

629
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,680
at the metallurgy looks looks
pretty good.

630
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:50,880
It looks like very conventional,
conventional ore type and you

631
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:55,840
know it goes for kilometers.
They managed to add ground to

632
00:38:55,840 --> 00:39:00,200
the South and early indications
there show further high grade,

633
00:39:01,240 --> 00:39:05,880
you know, same, same ore or same
resource potentially extending

634
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:08,680
at least 700 meters further
South.

635
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:10,960
But they've got, you know,
kilometres of strike to the

636
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,520
north as well.
And then, you know, sort of

637
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:17,800
overlying the, the manganese
horizon is the the hematite,

638
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:21,760
which is a real cherry, cherry
on top, literally.

639
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,600
So, yeah, you know, the only,
the only sort of downside is

640
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,520
they are they are fairly remote.
So they need to get their

641
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:36,360
product to to port.
So they're I think it's a

642
00:39:37,240 --> 00:39:40,600
hundred 150 odd KS of woody
woody.

643
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,600
So they're not not too bad.
But yeah, that's obviously going

644
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:51,080
to be a significant part of the
of the OpEx is the transport to

645
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,680
to port.
But you know, given the grades,

646
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:57,040
given the size of this project,
yeah.

647
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:03,560
Look, you know, you look at the
Jupiter, the guys in South

648
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,960
Africa, you look at Groot
Island, you look at Woody.

649
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,000
Woody, you can, you can
definitely talk about this

650
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,480
discovery in the same breath as
those operating, you know,

651
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,800
major, major producers.
It's remarkable, like this

652
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:21,320
company came to market in 2021
with a few kind of manganese

653
00:40:21,720 --> 00:40:24,680
deposits that were about 1/3 of
the grade of what 1 Daniel is,

654
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,480
but but not too far away.
They even put out a scoping

655
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,760
study on that.
And yeah, and then to have this

656
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:34,360
new discovery, which is 3 times
the grade completely, completely

657
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,720
transforms the, the, the
potential economics of, of the,

658
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,000
of the company.
The fact that it's from surface

659
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,240
as well gets me really
interested.

660
00:40:41,240 --> 00:40:44,040
I mean you can, you can really
keep the the cap structure of

661
00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:47,560
this company intact as they go
advanced through that Lausanne

662
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,480
curve, which is which is you
know juice for the for the

663
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,680
shareholders.
Yeah, very, very cheap to drill.

664
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,040
You know, I think they raised
something like $10 million late

665
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,120
last year.
But you know, that'll fund them

666
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:04,320
for, you know, several years
because the drill drilling is is

667
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,200
so.
Shallow, I spent 1,000,000 bucks

668
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,040
last quarter.
I saw in the December quarterly,

669
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:09,800
yeah.
We've, we've spoken about a lot

670
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:13,680
of sexy metals and and minerals
today and manganese firmly does

671
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:15,680
not fall into that, that
category.

672
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,080
But you, you do do a bit of sort
of macro understanding when you

673
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,880
when you invest in these, these
projects on how do you think

674
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:24,000
about where we are in that
cycle?

675
00:41:25,720 --> 00:41:28,520
Yeah.
And obviously the you know big

676
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:32,240
use for manganese is to go into
to steel.

677
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:39,720
There is, you know, sort of blue
sky potential if you like to go

678
00:41:39,720 --> 00:41:44,480
into the high purity manganese
market for batteries, but that

679
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:49,160
that's a relatively small part
of the of the manganese story.

680
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:53,280
So, you know, it's really steel
usage which is which is most

681
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,760
important.
Yeah.

682
00:41:55,960 --> 00:42:00,640
You know that that market is
perhaps something that's, you

683
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:04,960
know, hasn't got the same
fundamentals as say a lot of a

684
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:08,160
lot of other metals like copper,
for example.

685
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:15,920
But you know, the the steel
market has sort of been to

686
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:19,400
firing the pundits for for a
long time and there's no, not

687
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,720
not to say, you know, it can't
can't do the same same again.

688
00:42:22,720 --> 00:42:27,960
So, you know, and you've also
got, you know, those mines that

689
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:32,960
I mentioned, you know, crude
island, etcetera, having, you

690
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:36,640
know, a finite mine life, Woody,
Woody, certainly its best years

691
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,520
are behind it.
Jupiter in South Africa got got

692
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,520
numerous challenges and then you
got Gabon, you know talking

693
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:51,640
about making sure that you get
downstream processing done in

694
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:56,240
country and that is always a
challenge for sort of interest

695
00:42:56,240 --> 00:42:59,520
infrastructure, poor
jurisdictions.

696
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,960
So, yeah, look, you could see
the supply of manganese be

697
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:07,560
really challenged while that
while the demand side might not

698
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:13,640
be quite so strong, the supply
side might might be the one that

699
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:17,240
really pushes the price around.
Yeah, it's a, it's a fascinating

700
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,280
little market, that one.
Well, not so little market, but

701
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:23,760
John, as we as we kind of wrap
now I've, I've got a few

702
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,200
questions at the the top of my
mind that I'm, I'm curious to to

703
00:43:27,240 --> 00:43:28,360
ask you.
They're a bit more sort of

704
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,280
general in nature.
And I'm, I'm curious to, to hear

705
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:34,960
your answer and how you're
thinking about this in terms of

706
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:39,360
the, the general kind of market.
If we look back at at 2025, I'd

707
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,720
love to know what kind of
surprised you most or if you, if

708
00:43:42,720 --> 00:43:46,320
you can try imagine being at the
beginning of the year again.

709
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,760
What was the the biggest changes
or events that played out that

710
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,920
kind of took you by surprise and
and made you learn a bit over

711
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:56,000
the year?
Yeah.

712
00:43:56,000 --> 00:44:00,360
I think from our portfolio, the
surprises were the best

713
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,320
performers.
You know, we talked about Black

714
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:08,200
Canyon, that was the best
performer in the portfolio.

715
00:44:08,720 --> 00:44:11,160
I think at least through the
early December, 1 of the other

716
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:16,360
best performers was an oil
investment Finder resources, you

717
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:20,120
know, with an oil field in the
in the Timor, Timor Sea.

718
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:25,680
So that was a bit of a surprise
that actually in 2025 our best

719
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,040
performers weren't precious
metal stocks.

720
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:33,000
If you'd said to me in February
or 12 months ago, oh, you know

721
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,320
gold's going to go through the
roof and the silver's going to

722
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:40,800
go through the roof, but a lot
of other metals are going to go

723
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,480
through the roof as well.
That was a surprise that that

724
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:50,680
you've seen precious and many
base metals all running at the

725
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,480
same time as we as we came into
into 2026.

726
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:58,440
I think across the board you're
seeing more money in metals

727
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:03,400
markets and other other players,
not just, you know, investment

728
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:06,840
houses, but you know, you
mentioned Tether, you know, JP

729
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:10,120
Morgan in in silver, you know,
it was rumored to have a

730
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:14,920
massive, massive build up there.
So yeah, you know, the

731
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:21,160
fundamentals have attracted this
investment and trading, trading

732
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:25,200
interest and it's really lifted,
lifted metals almost across the

733
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,360
board.
Yeah, the the popularity of our

734
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,840
spaces is really exploded and,
and one more quick one from me.

735
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,360
I'm I'm curious to hear perhaps
on the back of that as well.

736
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,160
Are there, are there things
you're hearing in the market

737
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,000
perhaps themes or comments that
that are kind of pet peeves?

738
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:40,840
Do you things that you just
constantly hear that you don't

739
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,480
think are right or don't think
are going to going to play out?

740
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,000
I'd be very happy if no one ever
came in and said I've got a

741
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:53,440
really unique deposit.
Yeah, that's, that's a pet

742
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:55,360
peeve.
Every time I hear that it's

743
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:56,920
either unique or it's not, I
guess.

744
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:01,080
And yeah, you know, when, when
people, you know, are realistic

745
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,440
about, about their projects,
realistic about the metal

746
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,320
markets, then you know, that's
always, that's always

747
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,640
refreshing.
One pet peeve is when explorers

748
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,560
come in and say, I'm going to
develop this little project

749
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:17,920
myself and I'm going to use the
cash flow to go exploring.

750
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,440
I think for a little company,
you've got to do one or the

751
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,360
other.
You've got to be a developer or

752
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,880
you've got to be, you know, an
explorer and don't and don't,

753
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:32,280
you know, count on, you know,
the cash flows from a small

754
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,400
project to be able to find your
exploration.

755
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:38,360
That's I think that's trying to
do too many things at once.

756
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:43,120
Last one from me, John, the the
one that got away in this bull

757
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:46,440
market, is there a, a trade you
didn't make or or should have

758
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:51,120
made or and and you and you've
kind of just watched potential

759
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:54,760
gains just drift away because
it's just been blown the lights

760
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:56,200
out.
Yeah, yeah.

761
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:58,200
Look, there's heaps, there's
there's heaps.

762
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:02,360
But the one that springs to mind
most is is Dateline.

763
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,480
Oh God.
Yeah, look, we, you know, we had

764
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:11,320
numerous chats to those guys,
but really focusing on when

765
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,880
they're in Colorado with an old
an old goldmine, which they're

766
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,040
trying to trying to reach start.
And and and we didn't really

767
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:22,640
look hard at the, you know,
Colosseum rare earth, rare earth

768
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:24,880
project.
Not that we necessarily might

769
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,800
have invested in that, but yeah,
that's definitely one that we

770
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:30,480
could have got into that that we
didn't, you know, really, you

771
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:35,920
know, hats off to them.
Well done, Steve back Datus, you

772
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:39,280
know, really committed to that
company and good, you know, well

773
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,720
done.
It has been an astounding run on

774
00:47:42,720 --> 00:47:45,600
that one, but there are plenty
of other stocks in your

775
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:47,960
portfolio that you can
commiserate over and, and just

776
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:51,160
look at John.
So well done to to you in the

777
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:54,320
last year and looking forward to
seeing how 2026 plays out.

778
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:56,640
It's been a hell of a start.
I appreciate you coming on the

779
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,680
show as always.
It's fascinating to to hear and

780
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,000
learn from your, your humble and
thoughtful approach to these

781
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:03,320
stocks.
So we appreciate you sharing

782
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,120
that with the audience.
Oh, Janice, look, it's

783
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,480
definitely a two way street.
I love to, you know, hear you

784
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,120
guys and what you're thinking
because you guys have got your

785
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:13,960
finger on the pulse like like
nobody else.

786
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:15,440
So thank you very much for
having me.

787
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:19,200
Big thanks to the partners, Big
thanks to Johnny Forward I I've

788
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:21,240
always got some homework to do
after speaking with him.

789
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,800
We do, We do indeed.
Massive thank you to Exceed

790
00:48:23,800 --> 00:48:26,400
Capital and Sandwich Ground
support, who we had in the show.

791
00:48:26,760 --> 00:48:28,840
You should also check out
Intralinks and the beautiful

792
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:31,440
charts that we showed during
this episode by Focus, the

793
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:32,880
platform brought to you by
Market Tech.

794
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:34,520
Hudaru.
Hudaru.

795
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,400
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

796
00:48:38,720 --> 00:48:40,800
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

797
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,440
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out

798
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:43,960
disclaimer.