The Quickest Way to Lose a Few Million Dollars

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Right eye money miners.
What have we got today, boys?

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We've got a we've got a BHP.
Fat finger or not.

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Not a BHP person, but related to
the BHP stock.

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Oh.
That's nasty one.

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Yeah, not as nasty as the city
one, which was nearly 81

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trillion that.
Didn't get through is.

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That the other day.
Some of the money can't exist,

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right the.
Entire financial system is wiped

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out with.
You apparently that one was I

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read it they the field that come
up in this unused screen had

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like they typed it in, but they
forgot to delete the 15 zeros

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that automatically come up in
the field.

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Wow yes.
So obviously 15 zeros equals a

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trillion.
Somebody should do that with the

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money in mine bank account.
Oh shit, yeah, you won't be

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getting it back either.
JD, you're digging into SQMI.

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SQM leading into a sort of
broader Lithium chat.

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It's the sort of crux of it.
I think SPM is not not the most

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familiar name to a lot of us,
but Lithium is here in WA and I

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think there'll be people sort of
curious to, to learn a bit about

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what, what a big miner, what
the, you know, the big beast in

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that industry is thinking.
Mike, can you, Can you imagine

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if lithium rebounds?
Cause we've got another lithium

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IPO converting into gold today.
So if you've got gold and

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lithium at highs, it's it is
gonna be they're gonna be the

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best companies ever who bloody
and look, I just checked this

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out right here.
This is just a snippet of what's

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going on.
I'm looking at this, I'm looking

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at gold and I'm looking at a
freaking huge cutback needed

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that has got MMS name all over
it.

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Get them down to Forrestonia.
They are the team to get start

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getting into that little
honeypot down there.

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They will.
We've seen what they've done at

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my RE ahead of schedule.
I wanna see him like I'll just.

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Why wouldn't you pick them?
They are Speaking of the

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tethered goat.
MMS are the GOAT of open pit

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mining contracting greatest of
all time.

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They'll be there before you can
believe.

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It Oh no bloody give him a
bloody bell.

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Where there's lithium, where
there's gold, you gotta get out

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of the ground mate.
I I know who I'm calling.

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Well, don't.
Don't get used to looking at it

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'cause it'll be gone before you
know it by the time they start

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mining it.
So let's get into a lot of money

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that was gone before they knew
it or I assume it's come back or

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has it for BHP stock?
Has it come back?

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Has it been refund?
Is there a refund policy on

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this?
They tried Oh, no refunds, mate,

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I'll get to that.
But it's this is crazy.

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What's bloody happened.
This is we've all made mistakes

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working in, in, in finance.
Some some mistakes have worse

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consequences than than others.
And when there's a potential of

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a big consequence, hopefully
you've got protocols in place to

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to mitigate it.
But from time to time we see

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this phenomenon of the fat
finger still pop up in, in

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financial markets.
And it's just, it's just, it's

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just just a funny occurrence.
When it happens, you feel for

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whoever's behind it.
But you know, you in in the

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moment of milliseconds, you
know, millions of dollars is,

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is, is lost in these things.
In this instance, it this is the

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BHP share price that that it's
happened to a you know multi 100

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million billion dollar market
cap can be affected by an order

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of BHP shares that was the wrong
quantity.

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Yeah, right.
So today is a funny day about

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BHP in the sense that it's, it's
actually it's ex dividend date.

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And if you, if you purchase a
stock on its ex dividend date or

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after you know you will, you
will not receive the, the

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announced dividend payment.
And if you're we're paying close

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attention to BHP, they announced
this fully franked dividend and

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it's half year results of of
$0.50 per share in U.S. dollar

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$0.10.
So that so yesterday was the

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record date, today is the ex
dividend date, which means Jack

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Holden.
The the record date is usually a

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day after ex divvy date.
Oh, because.

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It's T + 2.
Yeah, but you know you're yeah,

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this is ex dividend date is when
you when you trade X yeah,

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without the dividend, yeah,
yeah.

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So, you know, if you kind of
assume perfect markets in a

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world where BHP last closed on
the, on the ASX and then you go

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your ex dividend, in a perfect
world, you know, it's, it's

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$0.50 less.
But the, the world moves in

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between your stock opening and
closing and those sorts of

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things.
But in this instance you didn't

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get BHP opening, you know, $0.50
slower than it than it closed

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yesterday.
Look at this, this chart is

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crazy.
The you know, you're effectively

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just seeing the stock open at 42
bucks and in the space of a very

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short period of time it it's
trending all the way back down

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South of South of 40 bucks and
South of 3950 it as well to get

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it really 5.
Percent over 5%.

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It was a six, it was a 6% like
move in a, in a, you know, a, a

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company with a market cap of of
BHP.

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This is like as liquid as stock
as it gets on on, you know, a

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sex trading trading terms and
it's a fat finger.

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What's happened is an order of
750,000 shares of BHP has been

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input at 42 bucks.
That's that's in Aussie dollar

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terms, 31.5 million dollars, 42
bucks is is much higher than

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where BHP should have
effectively opened.

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And you can see that this order
is put in just moments before

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the, the, the auction finishes
and the order like the open

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actually begins.
We'll play, we'll play it on the

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spark chart that Adam's given to
us because the replay is just

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fascinating here.
And Jada, you might have some,

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some comments of what we're what
we're actually looking at, but

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you have this like auction
process right before open and

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this, this 750,000 share BHP
water pops in just just moments

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before open, but during the
auction.

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And what's it?
What's it doing?

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Yeah.
So people will know that on the

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markets pretty regularly you get
the staggered open on the ASX

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roughly over a 10 minute period
in, you know, it's in

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alphabetical order.
So you sort of ABC will go 1st

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and then roughly a couple
minutes later you get the next

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slot.
That's kind of how it works.

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And what you're sort of saying
is that auction process is just

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a matching up of a, a sum of
demand and supply that finds an

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equilibrium point and normally
matches.

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But when you you come in on
either side with way more than

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the other side's got, it
obviously forces up or down that

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price depending on how much you
got that.

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Whole side.
Yeah, it's a funny one because

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when you think of like a fat
finger, you think of like often

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like an extra 0 or you know,
maybe on the, the quantity side,

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maybe on the price side.
But what we're kind of implying

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and maybe in time we'll find out
a bit more information is like

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you would have wanted to put the
price in whatever like 3930, you

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know $39.30, but it's actually
coming I take it up to a limit

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which is far in excess of yes,
what the market price.

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Those are my two.
Those are my two like lines of

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inquiry and I'm not as like
familiar with trade execution

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stuff, but I was like, why would
like even if it is a fat finger,

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why'd you put it in at 42 bucks?
So apparently like, you know,

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you just Chuck it in there
because you know, your volumes

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only only supposed to be 750
shares, but it'll get done at

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the open price of color 3rd 3950
even though you were but you

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know, it's the fact that this
was a 1000 times more shares has

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completely changed.
But yeah, but you you wouldn't.

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Another number of shares, not
the price.

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You wouldn't normally.
So the that's the other line of

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inquiry is the how did your fat
finger 3 zeroes?

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That makes no sense.
Well, when you're when you're

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putting in these orders into
into iris, you put AT to mark an

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extra 1000.
So you're at 750 T And if you're

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used to inputting your number of
share units in thousands,

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someone might have accidentally
typed T after 750 submit.

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Yeah.
You go from doing a lot of

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execution on on small caps and
then all of a sudden somebody

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gives you an order on BHB and by
default you you hit T.

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That'll that'll make more sense,
yeah.

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You'd know, I mean, there's no
way you'd put a market order,

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you know, order of that quantum
just in the market.

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If you're sort of the one in
charge of executing it, you'd

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break it up into bits and pieces
over the day.

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Like you're not going to put
that much in because even

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despite BH PS liquidity, not
that much money isn't isn't

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swapping hands in the open
generally not.

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That of thirty $31 million order
here moved it yeah moved this

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moved BHP 6% and gave it all the
way in you know a couple of

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minutes but that's it that's
kind of what can what can happen

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when you market buy on open to A
to a stock as big as BHP that's.

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Why you need a lot of checks and
balances when you do these

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things?
That is, and so that's the other

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point to what what you said
Maddie did.

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I could they reverse it.
And, and amazingly the, the, you

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can, you can actually see in,
in, in this screenshot, I'm

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going to show you here, the
brokers realise they're fuck up

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and they've submitted this
cancellation request.

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And you can see they've
submitted that cancellation

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request.
And then two minutes later the

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trade, it says trade, you know,
trades in BHP at $42.00.

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And it stands there's this,
there's this acronym NCR and,

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and NCR stands for no
cancellation range.

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So the cancer trade effectively,
there's a very specified range

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where you can actually do that.
We'll put up a screenshot of, of

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what the, you know, the range
is.

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And look, thanks to thanks to
liquidity provider on Twitter,

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there's another acronym for NCR
too.

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It's known as no crying at the
casino.

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So you can no, no, no take
backs.

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You fucked up.
You know, if and sometimes been

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the beneficiary of this,
optimistically they've they've

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realised someone's stuffed up
and then they've.

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Sold them all at 42.
Bought them back at 39.

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Exactly.
Within a minute.

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An enormously costly mistake fit
for some, some broker out there

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which which you don't actually
find out the identity until

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three days later.
It's like t + 3 on on the the

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broker level data.
But yeah, speaking with some,

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some traders, they reckon
filters should have caught this.

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You should have, you know some
checks and balances that that

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would pop up on this.
So you know, either either

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either either the broker
actually has no, no filters in

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place or they push through a
soft filter.

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So you know, if it's supposed to
be a, if it's a $30 million

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order, you should have some
prompt that pops up, for

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example, as a, as a filter,
which says, Are you sure, you

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know, and maybe they, maybe
they've like just instinctually

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push through that prompt because
they're used to doing it

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sometimes.
But you know, either way, it's

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it's it's it's it's some, some
filters have broken down in the

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process is the most likely
thing.

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Could could have been a big
night at the Paragon in Sydney.

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Oh jeez, coming a bit dusty on
the open.

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Oh it's bloody Sydney.
It's 10:00.

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Should be half sober by then
mate.

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Mate, Speaking of the casino,
someone might be going to the

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casino try to win back their
losses.

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That is shocking.
That is, that is so awful.

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Yeah.
You know, for the, for the

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person on the wrong side of
that.

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Oh yeah, feel for him.
Oh God yeah, who?

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Yeah, who knows?
What's the biggest number fuck

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up in finance you've ever made,
JD?

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What were the the consequences?
Definitely made a few.

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The quantum would have been a
few 1000 bucks.

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Yeah, yeah.
Oh.

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Buddy, oh buddy, trust me, I
don't want a fat finger on the

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Child Support payment because it
won't be getting that back.

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No refund policy there.
All righty, should we?

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Should we chat about Lithium?
Take it away, JDSQM and Q4

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results.
Yeah, they came out with the

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results yesterday and then over
overnight Aussie time, they had

223
00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:52,880
their core.
So I thought for a couple of

224
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,720
reasons it'd be interesting to
kind of check in on them and see

225
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,240
see what's going on for the the
reasons that came to mind is

226
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,040
obviously the the state of the
lithium market.

227
00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,760
It is completely wrecked.
Kind of Needless to say that the

228
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,960
commodity price itself is
probably a bit up on what it was

229
00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,160
six months ago or so. 2024 was
obviously a pretty treacherous

230
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,520
year, but plenty of the stocks
are breaking lower and lower.

231
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:19,080
You know, Pilbara below 2 bucks
I think in the 180 range IGO and

232
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,080
in the high threes.
Yeah.

233
00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:25,720
So they continue to to trail off
as the the rut kind of

234
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:27,440
continues.
And of course this leads to to

235
00:11:27,440 --> 00:11:28,960
opportunities which gets us
pumped.

236
00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,800
The second point why I thought
it was interesting is just to

237
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,440
tap into the the state of SQMS
assets.

238
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,080
Because of course, if you start
looking at lithium, you

239
00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,360
obviously want to get a feel for
where those low cost producers

240
00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,360
are, where those assets that sit
at the bottom of the cost curve

241
00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,200
are and those companies are kind
of trading at.

242
00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,000
And everyone kind of knows that
SQM has some quality projects.

243
00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,840
So I thought it'd be worth just
saying what the the operations

244
00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,240
have been like, whether they've
been sort of managing costs and

245
00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,520
and those sorts of things all.
Right.

246
00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:01,480
So how do they look, JD?
Try break it into to two parts,

247
00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:02,840
Maddie.
So obviously got what what's in

248
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,680
their control and what's out of
their control.

249
00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,120
Needless to say, if you're
looking at like a revenue number

250
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:10,080
for 2024, it's going to be
pretty gruesome when you compare

251
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:14,320
it to the the year prior.
But they've been under a a

252
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:18,320
massive sort of CapEx program.
Obviously they've bought Azure

253
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,480
through 2024.
They've invested a lot of cash

254
00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,920
into Mount Holland, both at the
mine and at the refinery.

255
00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,720
So a lot of money going out the
door on that front.

256
00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,520
Needless to say, free cash is
going to be pretty weak.

257
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,720
No surprises on that front.
But you want to just check in

258
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,320
that they're managing things on,
on the cost front.

259
00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:39,120
So at the top line, if you're
looking at 2024 revenue, that

260
00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,000
number fell by $3 billion to
four and a half billion.

261
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,800
And everything I'm going to
quote here is in U.S. dollars.

262
00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:48,800
Now that if you, if you zoom in
specifically on the the lithium

263
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,200
part, it's actually, it's
actually a bit more grim because

264
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:55,200
lithium revenues fell nearly 60%
to 2.2 billion.

265
00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,480
So in this market across their
portfolio of assets, lithium

266
00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,000
makes up about half their
revenues.

267
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,080
You've got what they call
specialty plant nutrition, which

268
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:08,240
is fertilizes that that makes up
around about a billion.

269
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,600
So call it in this market 25% of
their their revenues.

270
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,200
And then iodine, which is a a
funky business we're going to

271
00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,200
chat a bit more about in a
second also contributes roughly

272
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,280
25% of their top line.
They've got a few other sort of

273
00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:24,480
commodities that I won't get too
much into.

274
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,920
And don't don't forget what they
coughed up for Azure for the end

275
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:28,720
over.
Yeah.

276
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:33,400
So the load up, so $350 million
went out of their pocket over

277
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,240
2024 to to wrap that one up.
Yeah, on the accounting side,

278
00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,920
they they marked about a $400
million loss.

279
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,760
There was a, a chunky one off
kind of in quotation marks tax

280
00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:47,720
bill that totaled $1.1 billion
that was settled in, I want to

281
00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,000
say May of last year.
That was on the back of a pretty

282
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,640
long running dispute that they'd
had in, in country in, in Chile

283
00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:59,240
and $1.6 billion went into the
ground.

284
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:05,040
So a lot of growth being chased
up and the, the rewards of that

285
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,640
are, you know, lithium
production hitting a record.

286
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:14,040
So 58,000 LCE was a a record for
the company, the most lithium

287
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,960
they've ever produced in 1/4.
So things, things are looking

288
00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,280
fairly good on that front.
No cash flow statement yet,

289
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,800
which I'll sort of look out for
when it when it comes.

290
00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,600
But you can dig through the
various numbers they do provide

291
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:29,320
and get the sense that free cash
flow came in at about negative

292
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,400
half a billion dollars following
all that investment that I just

293
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:36,200
sort of mentioned on the
operations, sort of go through

294
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,600
it quickly by by each one.
You've got lithium volumes up

295
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:43,600
21%, no sort of surprises with
things in Chile sort of ramping

296
00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,640
up.
And then of course Matt Holland

297
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,400
coming online and finally
starting to add tons at the back

298
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,640
end of the year.
And then you've got on the other

299
00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:55,680
two businesses between 10 and
20% increase in in volumes and

300
00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,680
that kind of balanced changes in
prices that they saw.

301
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,440
They don't break out the
operating costs per asset, which

302
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,480
is kind of frustrating again,
But you can work through it and

303
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,000
get to the point that margins
were a bit weaker than what

304
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,080
consensus had predicted.
But there's still an improvement

305
00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,480
on the previous quarter, which
is always kind of good to see.

306
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,320
And in the lithium part of the
business specifically, there was

307
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:20,800
a, there was a jump.
Up.

308
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,200
All right, So what?
What's the pot like?

309
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,960
How did the potash get in?
Is it any relation?

310
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:29,440
Brian, Brian Saltz as well,
yeah.

311
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,480
Is that?
Same, same assets, yeah, like

312
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,040
you've got, yeah, just
tremendous evaporation

313
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:39,560
conditions and and sulfate of
potash is yeah, it makes sense

314
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:40,960
produced through evaporation
process.

315
00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,800
Yeah.
Yeah, the the cliche deposits

316
00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,480
that they have all in the same
area, these are all in northern

317
00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,840
Chile.
They produce the iodine that is

318
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,400
that's Hard Rock mining from
from surface.

319
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:57,000
That's not sort of pond type
extraction.

320
00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,200
But yeah, the things are kind of
similar there.

321
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,000
And the way the assets came into
the, the portfolio sort of

322
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,080
similar when the company was
privatized back in the, I want

323
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:10,320
to say in the the 80s, there's
a, there's a very interesting

324
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,480
and kind of controversial story.
There, I think potash was a

325
00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,480
bigger, much bigger business for
SQM for a long, long, long

326
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,320
period of time than it was.
Yeah, yeah, right.

327
00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:23,720
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
On the on the Aussie side of

328
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,240
things.
So they mentioned that Mount

329
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:28,440
Holland is is tracking pretty
well steadily ramping up and

330
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,720
they want to hit nameplate
capacity by the end of this

331
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:35,840
year, concentrator running at
80% of capacity now and you're

332
00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,880
going to see Mount Holland start
to add pretty sort of decent

333
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:40,000
tons.
They they're targeting like

334
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:45,680
10,000 tons of lithium carbonate
equivalent for this year with

335
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,360
the refinery being 95%
constructed, 2/3 commissioned

336
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,120
first hydroxide to come out mid
this year.

337
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:56,040
So obviously everyone is very
keen to see how that progresses

338
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,880
and you'll get a bit more info
out of SQM than you kind of will

339
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,520
out of West Farmers.
They've they've kept that pretty

340
00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:05,079
under wraps given the the larger
nature of of their business.

341
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,319
I should bloody drive past that
because oh, it's just you never

342
00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,560
hear anything about that
construction at all.

343
00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:12,920
Like it's, but it's obviously
been happening.

344
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,200
It's right next door to TLAI,
isn't it?

345
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:19,240
Yeah, yeah.
And I mean it should, it should

346
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:20,880
mostly be done.
So they sort of earmarked a bit

347
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:26,200
under $100 million to go out to
go towards CapEx on the Kwanana

348
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,160
side of things.
So that kind of tells you that

349
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,480
most of the investment is, is
done.

350
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,840
If you think about Matt Holland
and the Kwanana in, in one big

351
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:37,120
lump together, most of the money
has gone out the door and they

352
00:17:37,120 --> 00:17:38,920
want to start seeing a return on
that.

353
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,080
Not sure they will this year,
but we'll see in time.

354
00:17:42,120 --> 00:17:46,040
I've tried asking around about
that, but yeah, every every

355
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,600
indication I've got is that the
likely thinking in in West Farms

356
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:50,960
is still pretty optimistic about
it.

357
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,200
Yeah.
I mean, that'll be a remarkable

358
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,840
outcome if it comes to fruition,
but they'll be defying the odds

359
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,160
of saying so far.
Well, you just got to put your

360
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,560
head over the fence and say oy,
how do you do this bit?

361
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:05,960
And because Oggio and Tianchi
have obviously been through the

362
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,760
process 1st and so.
They'll say don't do this.

363
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,560
They'll stitch each other up.
Press this button mate.

364
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:18,440
What about Andover Azure?
Yeah, not too much, not too much

365
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,560
commentary on it.
Also sort of roughly 100 odd, a

366
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,080
bit under $100 million will go
towards it.

367
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:27,840
What they did say is that
feasibility should be done and

368
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,360
they want to make final
investment decision by the end

369
00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:32,640
of next year.
So a bit on the back burner A.

370
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:37,720
100 million just from SQM yes
yeah that'll be what 200 title

371
00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,560
with Jenna yeah a lot of money
still going towards it.

372
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:47,280
If if approaching FID they must
be doing some sort of pre pre

373
00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,720
production activities.
Yeah 200,000,000 go into it

374
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,840
unless they're more drilling or
yeah I don't.

375
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,920
Know I'd say sort of all all
fronts, you know, more drilling

376
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,040
and just feasibility and maybe
that's a check that's going to

377
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:00,680
be spread over a little bit of
time.

378
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,680
Yeah, who knows, maybe there's a
few other bits and pieces early

379
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,160
works like you kind of say that
they want to.

380
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,080
Work on must be early works of
some sort.

381
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,680
Yeah, yeah.
Just on the the iodine business,

382
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,840
this one's a bit of a gem.
It's it's really interesting.

383
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:16,720
So as a proportion of SQM, it
made-up about 20 odd percent of

384
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,840
their revenue over 2024, but
about 40% of their gross

385
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,240
profits.
It's punching a bit above its

386
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,440
weight given the weakest date of
the other business units.

387
00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,600
The, the business itself runs at
like a 50 odd percent gross

388
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,120
margin, which is, which is kind
of cool.

389
00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:34,280
Obviously CapEx not included in
that.

390
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,400
Are they who actually sort of
posed the question, would you,

391
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,040
would you consider spinning that
business out on its own?

392
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,880
Like it's in terms of revenue
doing a billion dollars like I

393
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:45,480
mentioned before.
So 50% gross margin.

394
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,880
It's it's netting a few $100
million in in profit each year.

395
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,520
It's quite decent.
It makes up 35% market share in

396
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,280
its own business.
And that the caliche deposits

397
00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,760
are the only source in the world
of this natural iodine.

398
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,480
You know, Japan makes it kind of
30% of the market as well.

399
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,800
And they do recycling and other
bits and pieces.

400
00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,600
But yeah, it's one I'm kind of
keen to learn more about.

401
00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,160
It's a solid little business,
but they they batted that one

402
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,760
back pretty, pretty safely and
said we'll keep it as part of

403
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,520
that the unit.
No need to spin that out.

404
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,800
Other than people trying to, you
know, stay safe in a nuclear

405
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:21,560
war, what's iodine use for?
So you like medical, wouldn't it

406
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,640
Like.
You you have it injected

407
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,520
normally when you get an X-ray
and it helps things show up

408
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,520
better.
That's 60 odd percent of the

409
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:31,680
market.
There's a few other

410
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,080
pharmaceutical type things that
it's used in.

411
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,280
Scans and that isn't it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

412
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,920
So interest not not something on
you have to do a bit of digging

413
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,600
on that as well, but it's a
good.

414
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,720
Interest and stuff.
Oh, I'm better than gargle.

415
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,040
Yep, sore throat gargle.
Like to know what what

416
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:51,800
percentage of the market is but.
Winter I I don't big in demand.

417
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:53,600
Yeah, so.
Right.

418
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,960
So I'll get, I'll let you do the
balance sheet, JD like I could

419
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,600
if I wanted to, but I'll let you
do it.

420
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,400
The reason I thought it'd be
kind of interesting to to

421
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,160
comment on it is really thinking
about Albemarle, the other big

422
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,400
player, and how much strife they
are in given the the state of

423
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:13,520
their balance sheet.
So SQM are still going to be

424
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:18,440
spending a fair bit of CapEx
over 2020 five, $1.1 billion.

425
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,320
That's that's still going pretty
hard at it in my eyes.

426
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,680
And they've got some debt, but
they've got debt that you know

427
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,080
the likes of min rays would kill
for.

428
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,600
They've got a substantial amount
of bonds sort of in smaller

429
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:33,400
quantum that sort of range from
400 to $750 million.

430
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,080
But they've got some pretty
awesome terms on a lot of them.

431
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:40,320
A few of them are 2050 due 2051
due paying 4%.

432
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,560
They're they're pretty awesome.
And then there's others sort of

433
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,520
coming up for expiry in 2029 and
2033.

434
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,040
So mostly it's friendlier on the
short term side.

435
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,280
You've got about $1.1 billion
due this year.

436
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,040
And if you think about that in
conjunction with the CapEx that

437
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,800
they want to spend, there is
potential that they face a bit

438
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,680
of a bit of pressure on that
side and they need to sort of

439
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,680
start thinking about other
sources of of funding.

440
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,880
They did raise capital back in
2021, but you could have wrapped

441
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:11,040
a much easier sort of growth
story around the the company

442
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:14,080
back in 2021 when things were
going gangbusters.

443
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:15,760
But they're they're still paying
a regular dividend.

444
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,120
They can pull that back.
You've got to deal with Kadelka

445
00:22:19,120 --> 00:22:20,280
and the Chilean government as
well.

446
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,240
So I've been inclined to think
that you could get something

447
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,840
friendly out of them too.
And you can pursue a few other

448
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,000
avenues before you actually have
to, to raise equity.

449
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,480
But it was a another question
that an analyst asked.

450
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,200
Would they consider raising
equity over over the next year

451
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,080
just to push in the balance
sheet a little bit?

452
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:40,480
And they said.
They said no, no, they they said

453
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,600
we'd look at.
Not telling you.

454
00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,960
Well, they said we'd look at the
dividend and pulling that back

455
00:22:45,360 --> 00:22:46,720
first.
We've got a few other other

456
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,400
sources.
We can play with a few things

457
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,400
and pull back on CapEx before
we'd need to go too hard at

458
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,600
raising equity and.
Refi the near term maturities.

459
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:56,680
Exactly.
Yeah.

460
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,200
So there's there's more options
on the table than jumping

461
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:00,520
straight into a capital raise
after.

462
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:02,520
Doing a bit of a deep dive on
them mate.

463
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,360
Do you think?
How do you think like SQM can

464
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,360
compare to, yeah, the other like
other the investment

465
00:23:10,360 --> 00:23:13,320
opportunities that are more
familiar to us in the the ASX

466
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:17,200
market?
It's an interesting 1.

467
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,440
So you got Atacama being the the
flagship asset, one of the best

468
00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,840
lithium operations in the world,
but it's, it's not without it's

469
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,080
kind of ownership complexities.
So you guys might remember there

470
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,600
was a lot of debate with the
Chilean government last year.

471
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,240
They came to an agreement kind
of the Cadelco that they would

472
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,560
water down their ownership to
50% -, 1 share.

473
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,800
But essentially the government
having 50% + 1 share from 2025

474
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:44,960
through to 2030.
And then from 20-30.

475
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,240
The, the big debate prior to
this was like your permits up,

476
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:49,960
then what are you going to do?
Are you going to have the asset

477
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,240
just taken off you?
Because Chile, left wing, very

478
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:55,400
left wing government came into
power and there's a lot of talk

479
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,560
about nationalizing everything.
They are only going to have 15%

480
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,240
ownership interest from 20-30 to
2060.

481
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,160
So that's, you know, from going
100% six years later.

482
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,520
There is a high quota.
It's going to be running more

483
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,080
tons through it.
This is a massively long life

484
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,400
project.
We're talking about another 30

485
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,320
years.
So you're getting 50 percent,

486
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,600
15% of a bigger pie.
But that's, that's still a big

487
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:23,360
haircut on the positive side,
you've got at least a portion of

488
00:24:23,360 --> 00:24:25,480
it when the there was a real
risk that you were going to have

489
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,120
it taken off you.
But this is of course, why

490
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,640
Tianchi were super, super pissed
off.

491
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,480
And they said, hey, we're a
massive shareholder.

492
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:36,200
I think they're in sort of 2122%
of SQM.

493
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:38,480
And they're like, how can you
just make disagreement with the

494
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,200
government and not even consult
your shareholders, not even

495
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,720
consult someone who owns 150
year stock?

496
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,800
So that's an ongoing debate.
And it's sort of led to a few

497
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,160
question marks around the rule
of law in in Chile, kind of

498
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,880
rightfully so.
Like people get these Chinese

499
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,800
companies get these accusations
thrown at them all the time.

500
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,120
But you know, it happens in
other parts of the world too.

501
00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:00,800
And understandably, they're
pretty pissed off.

502
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:04,360
I'd be as well on that front.
But you know, you've got that

503
00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:05,880
security.
So, so pros and cons.

504
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:07,760
You've got access to a quality
asset.

505
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:09,920
You've also got a bit of
complexity to it if you're

506
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,720
comparing it with the likes of a
Pilbara and a Pilgangura, with

507
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,920
the iron business, with the
fertilizer business.

508
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,800
It's nowhere near as sort of
straightforward just to kind of

509
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:23,720
compare them, right.
If you look at just numbers for

510
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,040
2025, I think you can sort of
easily back out a number of say

511
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,280
1 1/2 billion, maybe a bit more
in EBITDA this year.

512
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,000
But it's an $11 billion company
again, all US figures.

513
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,760
So that that's pretty steep.
If you start thinking about a

514
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,880
bit of a recovery like the
company is sort of talking to,

515
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,160
they think lithium continues to
be weak in 2025.

516
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,600
But 26, we're going to see
demand just continue to track up

517
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,160
and supply will continue to
track up, but not to the same

518
00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:53,240
quantum and you see better
pricing environment.

519
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:57,560
Maybe you get to 2 1/2 billion
dollars in EBITDA that looks a

520
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,160
bit friendlier.
That looks at kind of like a

521
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,080
four or five times multiple.
But yeah, I mean, you look

522
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:06,240
across the spectrum like Pilbara
is in Aussie dollar terms, like

523
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,080
a 5 1/2 billion dollar company
and kind of breaks even at these

524
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:14,440
prices, like say lifting prices
kick up 50% and we get to 1300,

525
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:22,080
call it 1300 S E6 pricing.
Maybe they're making sort of 6,

526
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,720
seven, $800 million in Aussie
cash flow.

527
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,840
It kind of feels like to me that
is already priced in even at

528
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,720
$1.80 a buck 90.
So, you know, maybe you start

529
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,280
seeing value if you go down the
curve a bit more maybe.

530
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,000
But then you're getting that
talk, you're playing with a bit

531
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,560
more fire because who knows
where things kind of settle out.

532
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,160
You've got people like cattle
who are not completely

533
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,200
incentivized to have lithium run
hot.

534
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,040
They're incentivized on the, the
vertical integration of their

535
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:52,360
business and maybe a bit more
supply is happy for them.

536
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:56,120
You've got Gulamina Monono
potentially coming online.

537
00:26:56,120 --> 00:26:59,040
We spoke about Chinese
operations in in the middle of

538
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,040
nowhere coming online.
You've got more brine projects

539
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,160
coming online.
So yeah, I mean, it's, it's a

540
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:06,840
market that's growing very
quickly.

541
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,000
But I, I saw this and I saw like
Hill Brown.

542
00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:12,760
I wasn't filled with confidence
that at this point they're super

543
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,840
cheap yet.
But I'm sure there's people that

544
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,200
have gone way deeper on the the
lithium space and they can get

545
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,640
comfortable with these prices.
It's whenever the catalyst is

546
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,920
that it's going to.
I don't think lithium's going to

547
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:27,560
be a a moment catalyst that
probably going to be a short, a

548
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,280
longer sort of turn around.
Yeah.

549
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,760
I don't think there's a point
where like they're just there's

550
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,200
just spod spod spod getting
bored everywhere.

551
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:36,920
Yeah.
But you need to, you need to

552
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:37,960
kind of be patient as well,
right?

553
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:39,800
You need to think, hey, maybe
it's coming in a year, maybe

554
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:40,960
it's coming in a couple of
years.

555
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,480
And you start, you look at like
IGO we mentioned the other day,

556
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,920
they're now well below the price
that they they agreed the

557
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,040
Greenbushes deal at.
That's pretty interesting.

558
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,560
I mean kind of speech to their
capital allocation since then

559
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,800
been less than stellar, but.
Yeah.

560
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,000
Well, when like you think of
when we first started talking

561
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,880
about this downturn was what
start of last year and like the

562
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:04,280
straight thoughts or remember
the consensus was this could be,

563
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,360
you know, 9 to 18 months of lol
Yeah.

564
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,440
And we're at, you know, 15
months or a bit less at the

565
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,480
moment.
So I like feels like it's going

566
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,120
on forever.
But from what the initial

567
00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:18,360
thoughts were, it's sort of
lining up that this is where

568
00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:20,880
we're going to be.
Yeah, we should, we should pose

569
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,560
the question to a few more
fundies in time because I

570
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,120
remember we had the the chat
with a few, some on the show,

571
00:28:26,120 --> 00:28:28,520
some privately as well.
And they're like saying things

572
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,640
to the effect of, you know, we'd
love to buy some of these

573
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,520
companies, say Pilbara, three or
three below 3 bucks, love to buy

574
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,560
it below 2 bucks.
You know, you wonder if some of

575
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:37,960
them are backing up the truck
now.

576
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,800
Maybe we'll find out in time.
Yeah, I, I, I still think we

577
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:46,000
like we Aussies put, put these,
you know, maybe maybe still

578
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,120
slightly premium valuations on
especially like, you know,

579
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,920
domestic assets relative to what
their, you know, earnings are.

580
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:57,000
And we we've we've, we've got
that yeah, like desire to do

581
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:58,520
that.
But if I, if I were like a big,

582
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:03,120
big, you know, fund manager and
I'm, I'm looking to get some

583
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,640
counter cyclical lithium
exposure now, I'd, I'd look to

584
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,200
the likes of an SQM because you
don't have, you've got the

585
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,080
lowest effectively like lowest
cost kind of assets on the cost

586
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,600
curve.
You've got, you know, a balance

587
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,560
sheet that can withstand a
harder market for longer and

588
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,080
they'll be like super
beneficiaries of it, you know,

589
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:23,840
when it turns.
Yeah, in the meantime, but I'd

590
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,080
I'd be looking at SQM before I'd
be looking at other ones where

591
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,280
the the earnings is a is a bit
more cagey and and and in some

592
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:31,920
cases where the balance sheets
are compromised.

593
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:33,400
Yeah, and you're probably right
to do so.

594
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,080
Like I mentioned, they might be
looking expensive on this year's

595
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,240
earnings, but if you're buying a
project with many, many, many

596
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:43,280
decades of life and maybe next
year 4 times, like think about a

597
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,120
business that you can buy that
has 30-40 fifty year life and

598
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:47,840
you're buying it for four or
five times earnings.

599
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,160
That's not that bad at all.
You know, if you're if you're

600
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,760
patient, if you're long term,
obviously there's a bit more

601
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,200
work that needs to go into to
fleshing out those numbers that

602
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,200
is kind of as rough as it gets
on back in the envelope type

603
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:02,560
work.
But that as a as a kind of a leg

604
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,800
in to do a bit more work on it
is not the most, not not the

605
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:08,200
worst opportunity to look at I
think.

606
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,480
And I think, well, if you look
at the two leaders in Australia

607
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:16,520
listed like RGO and Pilgrim
Minerals, they've probably got

608
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,400
the best.
They haven't got really any

609
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,800
balance sheet stress at the
moment like the, you know, the

610
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:26,440
debts within the Winfield JV,
but RGO don't have debt to my

611
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,520
knowledge.
Hilber is obviously still raking

612
00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:30,880
from the cash from back in the
day.

613
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,360
So yeah, they're definitely not
not a bad position for a turn

614
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,120
around.
Yeah, yeah.

615
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,960
I think you know, particularly
on on the Pilbury side of

616
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,080
things, they've they've played a
sort of fine balance and played

617
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,960
it quite well on navigating that
balance sheet, not going and

618
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,160
buying something and it's way
more expensive.

619
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,880
They did that a bit a bit later
in the pace.

620
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:48,520
So it was.
What?

621
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,960
What did it work out?
It was a 5% dilution.

622
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,480
What they paid for Latin. 5 or
8, something like.

623
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:56,440
That it was, it was pretty,
Yeah.

624
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,320
It wasn't a for what they ended
up with.

625
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,640
Yeah, it wasn't.
That wasn't that much.

626
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,440
Yeah, no, it wasn't cash out the
out the accounts.

627
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:06,120
Shares.
It's just like, it's like it's

628
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,560
for free.
That's it.

629
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,560
Good stuff.
Good bloody rundown.

630
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,280
Ohh mate, they'll be bloody the
balls all fucking love.

631
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,800
Love that you're giving them the
airtime, JD.

632
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,200
Bit of a monologue there, but
what about the the IPO rebirth?

633
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,640
Since that robot chat mate,
fucking it's all about

634
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,040
batteries, right?
Where lithium might be a rebirth

635
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,560
like you can.
That's the thing, you don't have

636
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,160
to stick with lithium or you
can, you can go do some other

637
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:31,920
shit and wait for lithium to
come back.

638
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,400
I think it'll really need to
come back to get a lot of the

639
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,320
small lithium mania back
background or wouldn't be

640
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,680
banking on that.
But we're heading down to

641
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,720
Forrestonia.
A bit happening in the district.

642
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,240
And look, when there's a bit
happening anywhere boys, you

643
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,280
know it means APC contracts for
Quattro.

644
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,560
If there's a bit happening,
something needs to be built.

645
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,840
No better person to build stuff
then who does the stuff.

646
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:55,760
What do they build?
Right.

647
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:59,320
They've been underground, known
for underground design engineer

648
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,120
construct install for years.
They've now transferred that to

649
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:06,040
the surface for pace plants.
They're going beyond that

650
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:10,280
globally to build pretty much
anything you want that has steel

651
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,360
in it.
They are absolute so.

652
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,840
Ground below ground, or build
the plant that sends stuff

653
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:16,760
underground again.
Oh.

654
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:18,040
Mate.
Exactly mate.

655
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,120
They can.
They can install pace fill

656
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,680
reticulation pipes longer than
the Pacific highway.

657
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,840
Like they will just jam them
bastards up forever.

658
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:27,480
Bloody impressive listening to
their team.

659
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,320
Mate, and talk about another
goat of the APC world.

660
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:33,920
That's quite right.
Speaking of goats, the old

661
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,840
tethered goat.
Oh, the best play, TJ Six.

662
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:39,800
Look, just change it to tethered
goat.

663
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:41,760
That's what it should be.
That's what it should have

664
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:45,800
always been, the tethered goat.
So they've had a RIP today, 38%.

665
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:50,360
So they were one of the, I think
they were a 2022 IPO when they

666
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:55,640
got the, you know, some lithium
ground down in the Forestonia

667
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:59,240
area, I think.
Yeah, yeah, Forestonia so, but

668
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:05,720
they've actually acquired today
an 80% interest in the it's

669
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:11,400
called Van Uden Gold project.
So and pretty look 4,000,000

670
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,920
bucks total consideration.
One of it's in one mil's in

671
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:20,200
shares, which is at a premium
half a mil deferred, but they've

672
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:26,000
ended up with 238,000 oz.
So for the 80 in in a existing

673
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:30,560
resource, all open pit stuff,
but pretty much got it for 20

674
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,440
bucks.
Like for their 80% got it for 20

675
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:37,040
bucks an ounce, which is in in
this market for what gold's

676
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,240
selling at, I think it's pretty
bloody got it for nothing.

677
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:42,640
I think there's a bit more to
it, but it like I said.

678
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:48,040
So they're the 80% they've
bought off this Montague private

679
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:53,280
company, but the other 20% is
held by Bartow Gold, which is

680
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:59,840
the Marvel lock area, which is
was part of the Minja thing.

681
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:03,280
So you had Minja Gold, which is
you, you look at the websites

682
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,160
are exactly the same and it says
Minja Gold has Bajingo, Barto

683
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:10,199
Gold has Southern Cross, but
it's all Minja.

684
00:34:10,199 --> 00:34:12,080
So I know that they're it's
operating.

685
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:13,480
It's like an owner mining set
up.

686
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,120
But it was, I did have
contractors there.

687
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,320
There was a bit of a dispute,
the contractors left and yada

688
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,159
yada.
I tried to run a sale process on

689
00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:24,120
that for.
Yeah, 2021 or something, wasn't

690
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:25,520
it?
Yeah, I reckon it extended for a

691
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,199
couple years.
But the thing with yeah, sale

692
00:34:29,199 --> 00:34:33,760
processes of often Chinese owned
assets is unless it there's an

693
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:35,239
offer above book value, they
don't sell.

694
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,080
Nah, Nah.
Well, and you look where this is

695
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:39,639
like.
I'll bring up the map you can

696
00:34:39,639 --> 00:34:41,800
see.
I would assume they're keeping

697
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:47,239
the Bato Minjar have kept the
20% and you know it's possible

698
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:52,120
possible future feed with that
20% to secure some of that feed

699
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,920
they have done a lot of.
Or or or trading agreements at

700
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:56,600
that mill, Yeah.
So they look like and they might

701
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,880
give it away in shape now, but
they can, you know, make it back

702
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,560
in toll trading in future.
However that'll go because you

703
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:06,000
got like the you got the Maggie
Hayes processing plant to these

704
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:10,120
that's the nickel one.
But you've also got Cosmic Boy

705
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,640
to the South, which was what
that's the one.

706
00:35:12,720 --> 00:35:17,480
Hopefully Medallion will be
finalising on for the old and

707
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,840
converting in or gold, but
that's a six. 9 Shary hands.

708
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,920
Yeah, that's a 600,000 tonne
plant.

709
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,280
So wouldn't be able to, you
wouldn't be able to.

710
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,560
It's not big enough to get an
oxide thing through it.

711
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,560
So I think the Marvel Lock one's
a million, million tonnes, so.

712
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,640
Tell me, tell me a bit about Van
Urden, mate.

713
00:35:33,720 --> 00:35:35,520
Oh.
Well you look bring it up here,

714
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,000
it has had an absolute shit load
of drilling.

715
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:42,960
So historic gold production 2
1/2 grams back in late 90s.

716
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,440
So as I said, 4 million, two and
a half million cash, 1,000,000

717
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,920
shares at 7 and a half cents and
considering it's only trading at

718
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,840
4 1/2 today.
So they've put them in a premium

719
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,800
and then deferred by them and a
half a mil.

720
00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,840
So yeah, you look, you look at
the 163 page document, there is

721
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,360
like there is a shit load of
drilling that has been done

722
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,240
around here and it looks like
they've got a pit, an old pit

723
00:36:08,240 --> 00:36:11,680
with that could be cut back,
taken deeper.

724
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,360
But then there looks like
there's a pretty bit of a system

725
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,320
to the east.
I think that's a east of it.

726
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,200
So right.
Oh, bloody no, it's far bit bit

727
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:21,960
happening in the Forestonia
district.

728
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,720
So once obviously, if medallion
get their Ravens Thorpe dirt and

729
00:36:26,720 --> 00:36:29,640
whatever else they can possibly
find with the goal, once they

730
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:34,640
get the gold rights, hopefully
of those like like the flying

731
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:38,200
flying fox spotted quo bloody
tenements, they'll have their

732
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,040
bit going on.
There's potentially this coming

733
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,520
up.
So it looks like they're pretty

734
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,960
much, you know, they'll have a
couple of mil leftover for

735
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,800
drilling, but I'll say they'll
be have to rise a bit soon.

736
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:52,960
But right, it's a rebirth.
But in terms of the price, I

737
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:54,720
couldn't for that many ounces in
resource.

738
00:36:54,720 --> 00:36:57,400
I couldn't believe it in this
market because everyone thinks

739
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,840
gold's at 4600 will take 20
million for that.

740
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,280
What's, what's the, what are the
answers categorized as?

741
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:06,320
Are we talking most inferred?
Inferred.

742
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:07,240
Yeah.
So that's a lot.

743
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,520
Yeah, they're sort of there.
Yeah, they.

744
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,480
Poke a few more holes in and
it's not.

745
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,840
Just smash them out but MMS are
going to RIP the arse out of

746
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:16,360
this joint.
Or reckon get them down to

747
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,840
Forestonia?
In that same sort of part of the

748
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,720
world, Maddie, there's yeah it
was a golden horse Minerals IPO

749
00:37:22,720 --> 00:37:27,160
recently, which was used to be
called Alton Rio renamed and

750
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:32,480
it's a result today ASX but
simultaneously wipe their TSXV

751
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,000
listing too.
So I mean, that makes sense for

752
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,400
an Australian project, but.
I think, but I think there was

753
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:39,640
one day out of Raven Saw there
was.

754
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,840
Cat Gap, which that's it, Cat.
That's actually a pretty good

755
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,680
project.
However, the company that was

756
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,400
stewards of that project
probably broke the world Gears

757
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,520
world record for the most
dilution I've ever was.

758
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,120
Classic Minerals.
Oh yeah.

759
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:53,800
That's the only time I'll ever
say that company.

760
00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:58,840
That was, that was the repeated
share consolidation.

761
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,040
Oh man, that was yeah yeah.
Put one for 1000 a few times.

762
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,160
But that one went for 7 million,
so.

763
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,360
Yeah, there were probably a few.
I mean you had to check the debt

764
00:38:07,720 --> 00:38:09,560
in that company as well and all
that sort of stuff.

765
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,200
It probably some gnarly terms in
amongst everything.

766
00:38:12,240 --> 00:38:15,880
Yeah, so anyway, we'll bloody,
we will see what happens.

767
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,040
I thought this was rather
interesting.

768
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:19,800
Oh, sign of the times.
Now the.

769
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:25,080
Another where where am I?
I found the there was a from the

770
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,440
Metis Nation on the back of what
we briefly spoke about the other

771
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,520
day.
The Metis Nation put a like an

772
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,600
announcement out about
concerning their essentially

773
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,400
their relationship with Next
Gen.

774
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,960
Energy for the Rook 1 project.
I'll read a bit out, I'll bring

775
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:41,160
it up on the screen.
The Metas Nation of Saskatchewan

776
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,720
are affirming their stronger
relationship with Next Gen.

777
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:46,520
Energy, including their support
for advancing the Rook 1

778
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,720
project.
On June 2023, Next Gen.

779
00:38:49,720 --> 00:38:53,320
concluded an industry leading
impact benefit agreement in

780
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,240
respect to the project.
And so the previous court

781
00:38:56,240 --> 00:38:59,240
decision between the Metas
Nation and the Saskatchewan

782
00:38:59,240 --> 00:39:03,160
government that said that
decision indirectly relates to

783
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:07,240
certain now expired exploration
permits issued by the province

784
00:39:07,240 --> 00:39:10,440
of Saskatchewan.
So it's again, I guess that is

785
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:16,440
bullish for Next Gen. that this
that whole thing won't be really

786
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,360
have any effect on advancing the
project.

787
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,360
I think this is, it just seemed
like a lot of it was inferred by

788
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:25,040
people before and this was so it
gets confirmation from the

789
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,080
nation.
Medicination you'd say?

790
00:39:27,720 --> 00:39:29,040
Good.
Good for next Gen. to see that.

791
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,080
I suppose so.
It's bloody, yeah.

792
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,960
I can't wait till 2030 comes so
we can stop talking about

793
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,800
whether Next Gen. is producing
by 20-30.

794
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:39,240
They either will be or they
won't be.

795
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,800
They're just they'll be a new
day to talk about. 5 long years.

796
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,880
Anyway, righty.
Oh, thank you very much.

797
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,440
Get your bloody.
There's been some smart people

798
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:54,080
that have used this $100 offer
for the Underground Operators

799
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:55,840
Conference.
Make yourself smart and use it

800
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,480
as well.
Link in the show notes if you're

801
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,560
an Underground.
Lovely lover and a massive thank

802
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:05,760
you to MMS, Grounded, Sandy
Ground support, CRE Insurance, K

803
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:10,440
drill, WA Water balls, Swick
Quattro, Project Engineering and

804
00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:11,920
Cross Boundary energy.
Tim.

805
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,320
Taylor.
Information contained in this

806
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,040
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

807
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,680
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

808
00:40:20,720 --> 00:40:22,760
or needs of any particular
person.

809
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,080
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

810
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,160
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

811
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,840
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.