The Oil Shock That Wasn't (Rory Johnston)
Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins to unpack a wild three months in the oil market, as an Iran deal is on the cusp of being signed and Brent bounces around. Rory walks through what actually moved the market, why prices underreacted to a major supply shock, and what it all means looking forward.
• China’s import collapse: the biggest surprise of the crisis
• How jawboning and volatility crushed bullish trader positioning
• Backwardation vs contango, and what the curve signals
• Why the outlook now looks structurally bearish
Rory Johnston Socials:
X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rorysjjohnston/
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TIMESTAMPS
(0:00) Intro
(6:10) China Demand Shock
(14:10) Why China Stepped Back
(21:20) Big Lessons for Oil
(28:00) Next Months and Hormuz Risk
(36:50) Niche Supply Chain Ripples
(41:40) Producers and Supermajors Outlook
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