The Fremantle Fundie that picked WA1 at 20c and Almonty at $1

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I I picked Tabani to be the
winner, Yeah, yeah.

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So this would have been in and
around the time Resolute had all

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their drums, I think a little
bit after.

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00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:11,120
So oh, so you'd be killing it
maybe up three times.

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And on the short side, Boss,
wow.

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Well done.
That's.

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That's a good run.
Yeah mins mins 40 bucks Oh.

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Yeah, hold on.
JD, I think, I think you'd tick,

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tick.
Yeah.

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Peter Brendeville, Chris Weiner,
welcome to Money of Mine.

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Thanks, have a big discuss.
Yeah, Thank you so much

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privilege for joining us.
Norfolk Capital.

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Norfolk Capital.
That's right, isn't it?

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Yeah, Norfolk Funds management.
Yeah, Norfolk Capital

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Management.
Norfolk Capital Management, you

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guys, yeah, you guys manage one
of the the newest funds on the

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block.
And I mean newest, not in a

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derogatory way because your,
your returns certainly to date

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have have probably beaten every
fund manager in this in the

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space.
But we're delighted that, yeah,

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you're joining us and going to
share your insights, your, your,

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your journey into funds
management, investing in the

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sector that we all love, which
is mining stocks.

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And we're delighted to that you
can join us.

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Yeah.
Thanks for having us.

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I think you're right in saying
that we are a new fund in that I

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think our strategy was only you
know which is purely energy and

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resources focused was only
established properly about a

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year and a half ago.
The fund in its structure, I

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guess in its organization has
been operating since 2021.

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But the kind of value driven log
only energy and resources

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mandate that we've been running
has probably only been really

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engaged for a couple of years
now and Chris came on board

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about a year and a half ago.
So but the returns profile has

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been there for a good four
years.

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So we've got some track record,
I guess and sort of showing our

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faces getting out there.
Was it was it a sort of long

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term goal that that you guys had
or is it more of a natural

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evolution to to get where you
are today?

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00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,960
It was a bit bit of a stepping
stone process for me.

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I was a capital markets lawyer
for a long time in mining, so

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mostly focused on small and
midcap opportunities, IP, OS

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placements, whatever have you
within the corporate and capital

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markets world.
And then I did about five years

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over in London as AM and I and
joint venture lawyer on trade

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and shipping.
So got me some pretty good

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perspective on what the world
looks like outside Perth.

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And I've sort of been investing
along the way through that

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journey had some good successes,
which I guess kept my interest

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in investing in the in in that
space.

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And so when I got back from UK,
I tried to upskill myself a bit,

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studied geology and finance and
then created the structure that

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is now Norfolk.
So that's kind of a bit of a

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backdrop to how my investing
career came to be.

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And and you run it as a as a two
man band now, but where did the

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the relationship start for the
two of you?

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Yeah, so I mean Pete and I've
we've been friends and known

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each other for a very long time,
but I've got quite a different

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background to Pete.
I sort of started in, I did a

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bit of time at a big four in
auditing.

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I then moved into the valuations
team and worked on independent

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experts reports quite some quite
large mining transactions.

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I then moved into investment
banking, corporate finance at

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brokers and various shops and
Pete was a client of mine there.

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So that's how we sort of
rekindled our relationship and,

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you know, did a few transactions
together and, you know, a year

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and a half ago we, you know, I,
I, I studied chartered

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accounting and did my corporate
governance institute of

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governance course.
That's quite a complimentary

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skill set to Pete's legal and
geological background.

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Bring different skill sets
together, especially I didn't

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have the analytical valuation
components tied down and a very

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experienced set of hands and
wanted to get into funds

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management.
So it was, it was quite a

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natural fit, yeah.
It is, it is remarkable to me

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that a lawyer and an accountant
have, you know, backed to pre

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discovery, you know, stocks and
it's not like you had a spray

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and pay approach.
You, you were pretty targeted

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with your, your positioning, But
you've, you've had two, two

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positions in exploration
companies which went on to

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discover something very, very
meaningful in very short order

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without actually having, you
know, a geologist kind of

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qualification.
But yeah, that's, that's kind of

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remarkable.
And understand Pete, you've,

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you've done a lot of groundwork
on on learning geology.

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00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,000
Yeah.
I, I think my, well, my geology

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00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,160
sort of studies occurred after
those two.

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Can't really sit back and say,
oh, I'm the greatest geologist.

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00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,080
I think we'll go into the three
kind of areas or pillars, I

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guess of our investing strategy
and mining and the first being

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exploration and discovery.
You really need to understand

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that there is risk and luck
involved in exploration.

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And it's not so much that it's
pure luck.

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It's just that whether you can
upskill yourself to a level

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which means you need less luck
than the next person to find a

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discovery or to hone in on
somewhere which might

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potentially give you a
discovery.

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It's kind of the angle that we
take.

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So when I say that, I mean you
know from a green fields

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perspective, let's say, which
were probably the two that you

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00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,920
were referring to understanding
the team, whether they've been

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out into remote areas of the
world or underexplored areas.

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What the initial geochem
geophysics looks like I think is

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really important because they're
the only lead indicators that

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you can follow to see whether
something makes sense or not and

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whether the management are
actually implementing A

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geophysics and geochem program
which aligns with the targeted

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ore body that what they're
trying to target.

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So for example, in the West
Dorunta, I think the initial

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geophysics was aiming for IOCG
targeting for WA1 and they ran

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gravity, they ran passive
seismic and they ran magnetics.

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And those are the three primary
geophysical targeting

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methodologies that you would run
to target that type of ore body.

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It just happened that that's the
same mix of geophysical methods

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that you would run to find a
carbon, a tide as well a little

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benign to the team at the time.
So if I could distill it and

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give any sort of feedback, it'd
just be try your best to

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understand the ground that
you're working with and whether

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there's actually a warranted
reason to be out here plugging

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00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:16,800
holes or whether you're just,
you know, drilling Wildcat holes

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for the sake of it.
So you mentioned the course came

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after that outstanding success.
Did that sort of light the fire

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to to go and do a bit?
More it did, yeah, because I did

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a lot of work on it at the time,
pretty much because I was in and

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around the management quite a
bit.

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So it was, it was of interest to
everyone around.

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But it really got me thinking,
if you're going to do this full

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time, you need to really obscure
yourself in in those areas if

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you're going to create a fund or
a strategy that's in part around

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exploration.
And that is Part 1 of the three

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pillars that you mentioned.
So if you if you give a quick

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overview of the other two and
then we can dive much deeper

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into that exploration and an
early stage part.

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So in addition to sort of value
backed exploration, when I say

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value backed, I think the value
needs to be there to invest in

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the 1st place.
So that's, I should have

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mentioned that before.
But the other two pillars that

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we look at are assets or really
ore bodies, which we think going

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forward are going to be of
strategic importance either to

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another corporate or namely to a
government body.

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And the third one's really kind
of bread and butter.

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Developer produce value
disconnected investments get a

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decent return which is the
markets mismatching.

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So if we if we have a quick sort
of snapshot at how the portfolio

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comes together like bottom up,
top down, these types of things

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00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,760
like you guys are long only as
well in nature.

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00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,800
Is there a target number of
companies that you like to to

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put together for a for a
portfolio too?

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00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:06,000
Yeah, there is.
So we are long only, I think at,

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00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:11,120
at the very start we're value
focused long only global

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investors and we do have a top
down, bottom up due diligence

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process, but there always needs
to be a value proposition there

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and a decent 1.
So you know, the top down,

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00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,160
bottom up investing methodology
makes sense.

155
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,400
You can get down the whole path
and then find out that there's

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00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,520
no value there.
But we do look at the macro side

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of things, thematics, commodity
cycles at the from the top up,

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see which commodities we want to
be based in.

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Usually because of the value
attraction, we ended up, we end

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up looking at commodities which
are somewhat bitten up.

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And I think that's probably the
differentiator for us as value

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investors as opposed to a
contrarian is that there's

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00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:01,080
definitely some overlap.
But we will be looking at

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companies or assets which which
is just simply too cheap to to

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look away from as opposed to
just invents investing in things

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because it's against the grain.
I want, I want to cast your mind

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back kind of 12 months ago
because I understand portfolio

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00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,920
composition right now is is very
different to 12 months ago, but

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00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,600
I want to want to like rewind 12
months ago, what were you

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00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,240
thinking?
What were your theses and and

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00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,160
how are you kind of positioned
accordingly 12 months ago?

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00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:33,400
Yeah.
So, I mean, 12 months ago or

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00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,360
sort of maybe a bit longer than
that, 15 months ago, we were

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00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,960
staring down the barrel of
potentially a second Trump

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00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,360
presidency.
You know, we had a pretty good

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00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:47,040
entree to that in 2017 to 2021.
You know, there was trade wars

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00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:52,000
back then, there was, you know,
tariffs and all sorts of things.

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00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,840
A lot of that looks to be quite
inflationary, especially second

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00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,760
time round.
Reassuring of of of everything

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00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:05,080
to the US looks to be very
buoyant for commodities and also

181
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,840
a good backdrop for precious
metals as well.

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00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:09,920
If it wasn't going to be Trump,
it was going to be the

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00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:11,160
Democrats.
And I don't think it was going

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00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:12,520
to be much different.
They were going to keep on

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00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,120
spending, I think.
So it was really just

186
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:20,320
positioning the portfolio with a
steady amount of precious metals

187
00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:24,000
and then a suite of these
critical mineral investments,

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00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,760
which some have played out, some
haven't.

189
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,280
They've been pretty important
for our strategy over the last

190
00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,040
12 months, the strategic assets,
if you will.

191
00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:42,800
So commodities like rare earths
and tungsten silver, what else

192
00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:44,920
have we?
Had yeah, some lithium.

193
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:46,920
Lithium names in there as well
still.

194
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,240
Not.
Everyone, yeah, not everyone's

195
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,520
cup of tea at the moment, but
this is kind of where we like to

196
00:11:52,680 --> 00:11:56,040
look at things when they're in
the dumps, where we can see that

197
00:11:56,040 --> 00:12:00,200
there might be some basic
strategic value to really good

198
00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:06,560
assets going forward.
So they have been playing out

199
00:12:06,560 --> 00:12:08,400
pretty well last year, as Chris
said.

200
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:15,680
So our, our, our cash position
is a bit reflective of that at

201
00:12:15,680 --> 00:12:19,360
the moment.
It was, yeah, 15 odd months ago.

202
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,720
I I don't know if it was as
obvious that that theme would

203
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:28,360
become so pronounced.
All I remember was like antimony

204
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,960
would go on crazy.
Maybe that was Kelly.

205
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,200
Maybe that was like a a whiff of
what was to come in some

206
00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,520
respects, but predict like the
rare earths would have been as

207
00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:42,080
responsive as as what played out
or even even tungsten with

208
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,840
Almonte, like it's a remarkable
outcome.

209
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,600
Why don't why don't we kind of
pry into some of those those

210
00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:52,160
those important positions,
starting with with Almonte.

211
00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:57,160
She's a pretty pretty under
followed loved tungsten stock on

212
00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:58,440
their name.
Yeah.

213
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:01,880
I mean it's a really interesting
story and it has been for many

214
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,960
years now and it's only just
come to the come to light and

215
00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,880
become known and and and moved
really.

216
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:15,320
So it was the fund invested in
it in 2021 is listed on the ASX

217
00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:20,120
$15 million IPO market was
around 100 and 2500 and 50

218
00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:24,240
million.
They own the Sangdong tungsten

219
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,800
mine in South Korea, which is
the largest tungsten mine

220
00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:28,560
outside of China.
And critically, this was

221
00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:32,840
probably what picked the fund's
interest at the time is China

222
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,880
accounts for 80 / 80% of the
world's tungsten supply, another

223
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:44,440
10 to 15% from Chinese allied
nations back then, you know, so

224
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:46,840
it was, it's been quite a
journey from then to now, but

225
00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:51,240
they had a lot going forward.
At the time.

226
00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:55,840
It had a full price offtake
contract where the floor price

227
00:13:55,840 --> 00:14:00,400
was two times the operating
costs that struck that contract

228
00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:03,880
in 2018.
The investment was made in 2021.

229
00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:08,200
Originally full price contracts
all the rage now with MP

230
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,320
materials.
But I wasn't aware of another

231
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:12,440
company that had a full price
contract.

232
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,720
I'm still not aware of one that
had other things going for them,

233
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:20,320
like they had a financing deal
from KFW, the German state owned

234
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:25,320
bank that was backed by the
Austrian government because the

235
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:29,400
off taker was Austrian.
So there's a lot going for it at

236
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:32,240
the time.
And it just felt like at some

237
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,080
point in time in the near
future, given the investment was

238
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,160
made in 2021, that was at the
end of Trump's first term, it

239
00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:43,440
was probably going to be a
desire to secure this mineral

240
00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,200
from outside of China.
And that sort of came to the

241
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,880
head late last year when China
banned the export of tungsten

242
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,400
and that sort of put a bit of a
rocket under the stock.

243
00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,400
And they listed on the NASDAQ
and raised $90,000,000.

244
00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,960
And I think your.
Point though, the when those

245
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:07,440
first ones were coming out
antimony gallium, it it did sort

246
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:10,840
of validate some of our thinking
at the time did sort of follow

247
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,680
our money a few times throughout
our Monty journey that we're

248
00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,840
still currently on.
At the heart of it is is the

249
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,280
Western world's desire to move
away from Chinese supply supply

250
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,600
chains and supply I guess the
underlying defense spending

251
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,600
promises that have been made by
NATO allies.

252
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,000
Chris can probably talk to this
better than I can, but the

253
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:42,240
numbers are many multiple more
significant than COVID spending.

254
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,880
Do you want?
To yeah, I mean, just, you know,

255
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:50,440
the NATO spending.
Recently the NATO nations agreed

256
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:56,920
to increase their spending of
GDP to 5% from 2% per annum, and

257
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:01,200
that would equate to an
incremental additional spend by

258
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:05,040
2035 of $1.3 trillion from NATO
nations.

259
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:07,760
I went back and had a look at, I
thought when it was announced a

260
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,920
few months ago, I thought, is
this the largest stimulus

261
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,760
package for resources in our in
our time?

262
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,560
And I went back and looked at
what I thought might be the last

263
00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:19,400
time that could have possibly
been topped, which was after the

264
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,600
JFC and the Chinese stimulus
package after that, 2000 and

265
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,480
eight, 2009 was 5 to 600
billion.

266
00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:29,720
So it's two times that per
annum.

267
00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,720
Yeah, I know there's a bit of
water to come under the bridge

268
00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:33,960
with that.
You know, like they've got some

269
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:35,520
checkpoints and the NATO
spending.

270
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:38,720
I think next year they have to
come up with a plan each nation

271
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:42,200
2029 is another checkpoint.
It only comes in in 2035.

272
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,760
But I think you know and that
only happened recently.

273
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:50,560
But the general thought was and
hope as a resource investor is

274
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:55,160
that these Western nations are
going to need to come up with a

275
00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,120
lot more Western supply of these
nation critical minerals.

276
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:04,440
And if you're in a project like
an El Monte, which as you know,

277
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,960
a a tier one asset in a very
niche commodity, you know, at

278
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,760
some point in the near term, it
would be worth something more

279
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,839
than $150 million.
That's sort of the thinking on

280
00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:15,680
that one.
And, and, and it's still playing

281
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,119
out for us at the moment.
You know, we've invested in a

282
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:25,520
North American rare earth Hard
Rock monozide asset which is

283
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,440
North America's largest at the
moment.

284
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:34,680
It's 200 million tonnes at 2%,
which is by far and wide the

285
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,440
largest source of rare earths on
the continent.

286
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:44,720
Even if you apply a sliver of
that, of the value of that, that

287
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:50,520
cash to be deployed to defence
to secure that supply, it by far

288
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:57,040
covers that mine plus many, many
others in terms of development

289
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,080
cost if they wanted to apply to
that.

290
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:01,400
Yeah.
If we look at our Monty

291
00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,440
specifically, is this how you
thought you'd get paid on it?

292
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:08,800
More or less, yeah.
With that as part of our

293
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:15,520
strategy, I guess is focusing on
ore bodies which are important

294
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,320
to either companies or to
governments.

295
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:23,920
And the thesis took a lot longer
than we were happy with to play

296
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:28,240
out.
You know, 4 1/2 years is a

297
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:32,560
decent hold before it starts to
break even again.

298
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:39,400
But I guess we the way we look
at it is we're happy to hold

299
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:46,320
things for a while as long as
the ore body is hugely important

300
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,200
to the world and and and tier
one quality.

301
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:51,760
Stock selection there matters,
right?

302
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:55,960
Because you could have, you
could have invested in EQR or

303
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:58,600
G6.
We had a look at all of them.

304
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,480
And you would have lost.
You would have lost money.

305
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,360
Sure.
And and, and they will probably

306
00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:04,360
come right in the right pricing
environment.

307
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:09,560
But when you're looking at
tungsten on it's almost doubled

308
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:14,360
in the last three months.
When you're looking at a prior

309
00:19:14,360 --> 00:19:18,640
pricing environment, a lot of
those marginal assets difficult

310
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:24,600
to to to sell to other
investors, other other other

311
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,360
institutional investors who are
going to drive the drive the

312
00:19:27,360 --> 00:19:29,480
price.
I think on the I'm on T1, it was

313
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,640
interesting thing about it, it
was the valuation was

314
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:39,240
backstopped by a base case
earnings rate without any trade

315
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:43,040
wars or you know, tungsten now
being used as a foreign policy

316
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,760
tool.
It was still undervalued by

317
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:49,840
probably 100% just based on
normal operating environment.

318
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,720
But there was always that
defensive strategic angle which

319
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:59,680
was the real, you know, upside
case which which has eventuated.

320
00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,160
What are the other?
So I guess one of the one of the

321
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,360
risks that we identified at the
time was, was the amount of

322
00:20:05,360 --> 00:20:11,120
leverage that it had at profile.
Yeah, which we got comfort with

323
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,360
given the parties involved and I
guess they're.

324
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:23,160
They're perceived objectives out
of the investment, which proved

325
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,200
to be true.
I mean, 4 1/2 years later for a

326
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,360
debt provider not to be paid
back anything quite the way.

327
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,600
El Monte at the time was Opera
actually operating and producing

328
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,080
tungsten from another mine
called Panascara.

329
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:37,480
And we knew they could run a
mine.

330
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:42,280
We knew they had a mine.
And if tungsten did play out the

331
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,120
way we were hoping, you know,
they may have been cash

332
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:48,440
generative from that.
Yeah.

333
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,520
And it it's the go, it'd be the
go to investment in the space

334
00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,320
that was the.
Yeah, there's not many, There's

335
00:20:53,800 --> 00:21:00,080
not many Western companies
producing tungsten. 11 stock in

336
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,360
your portfolio that didn't take
4 1/2 years to to play out, but

337
00:21:03,360 --> 00:21:07,000
it was a, you know, super
meaningful part of the journey.

338
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,240
WA one, yeah.
Yeah, that was.

339
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:11,800
Ding Ding, Ding.
We've probably got.

340
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,360
A still half.
Yeah, we're still there, mate.

341
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,120
That's good man, that's a safe
space to be.

342
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:18,600
Yeah, talk.
Talk us through.

343
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:25,040
That experience, yeah, well, W
1's a very unique investment.

344
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:29,160
I don't think it's able to be
replicated again.

345
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:36,200
I was actually travelling out to
the West Derunta, you know, for,

346
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,640
for different things, potash
included in a in a previous life

347
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:48,720
helping that management team who
found looney and had the

348
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,560
opportunity to start the fund in
the same office.

349
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:56,800
So don't know if I can replicate
those that scenario again now

350
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,040
that we're a two person mob down
in Fremantle.

351
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,840
It was special.
But it was about again for

352
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:11,280
exploration for us understanding
lay of the land first, what the

353
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:15,080
targets look like, how they're
going to go about it and whether

354
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,920
they have the right skill set to
be out there.

355
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,720
And I, I knew the guys had been
out there for a long time.

356
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:26,800
They know the land.
Paul Parker came on board.

357
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,680
Who was he?
He, he was the head of

358
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,680
exploration for sand Fire and
IGO for quite a long time.

359
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,000
Very safe set of hands, very,
very knowledgeable.

360
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:46,320
And I, I, I gathered a lot of
confidence from his, the way,

361
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:50,720
the way that he and Tommy Lyons
were approaching the exploration

362
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:55,760
out there, how they were
thinking about targeting, how

363
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,640
they were picking up massive
land packages to begin with to

364
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:05,280
figure out how the broader
geological and stratigraphic

365
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,120
profile looks like in the
Western under because it's

366
00:23:08,120 --> 00:23:13,800
completely underexplored area.
And how they went about figuring

367
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,160
out what kind of deposits might
be out there, which were IOCG at

368
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:21,120
the time, developing A
geophysics program and geochem

369
00:23:21,120 --> 00:23:25,560
program that aligned to that.
Knowing that there's 3040 meters

370
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:29,200
cover out there, so not much is
going to come to surface, how do

371
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:33,680
you go out into elephant country
and find these behemoths,

372
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,200
elephants?
And that's what they did.

373
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:42,280
And a lot of the time, this is
what happens in greenfields

374
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,560
exploration.
A company will go out and try

375
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,680
and find a certain type of
deposit and it'll end up being

376
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,640
another type of deposit.
It's actually the same, same

377
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:56,720
thing at Mount World.
I believe so.

378
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:02,400
I think just getting comfort
that if you are going to take on

379
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,840
exploration risk, one, that
valuation that you're entering

380
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,080
out makes sense to take on that
risk.

381
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,360
And two, that the methodology
that the management team are

382
00:24:12,360 --> 00:24:17,640
taking to it makes sense and
that and and therefore you need

383
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,400
to kind of dive into the actual
rocks.

384
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,000
Evaluation aside, you've you've
actually spoken in and around

385
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,360
management quite, quite a bit
there.

386
00:24:26,360 --> 00:24:29,880
How important is that in picking
under any of the three pillars

387
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:36,640
that you have an investment?
It is highly important.

388
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:45,200
I think the ore body in our view
is more important, as in a good

389
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:51,120
ore body can fix bad management,
but a bad ore body can undo good

390
00:24:51,120 --> 00:24:54,480
management.
And that's kind of the way we

391
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:59,120
look at things.
So it's a bit hard to answer

392
00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:09,480
that with examples, but we do
absolutely value good

393
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,560
management.
But I think it it's becomes more

394
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,560
important in our other two
pillars in development and

395
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,920
production assets as opposed to
exploration.

396
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,160
But you still need to have
people that know what they're

397
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:25,480
doing, right?
Yeah.

398
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,280
Yeah.
And if we we look at the other

399
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,720
outstanding sort of exploration
success that you guys had Q2,

400
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,320
which is still playing out in an
unloved part of the market right

401
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,360
now.
But I'd love to have you sort of

402
00:25:38,360 --> 00:25:40,160
walk us through that example.
Yeah.

403
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,880
So Q2 was a really interesting
one.

404
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,560
It's it was almost hiding in
plain sight.

405
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,800
They acquired, they were already
in an explorer of lithium in

406
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,120
James Bay at the start of last
year.

407
00:25:54,360 --> 00:25:56,680
And then they agreed to acquire
the Cisco project, which is now

408
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:01,120
their key project.
The vendors of the projects and

409
00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,920
this was in the announcement
when they acquired the project

410
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,320
had a market cap of around $15
million Canadian.

411
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,360
They had they drilled three
holes into the projects.

412
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:17,520
One of the holes 115 meters at
north of 1%, another hole, I

413
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:22,800
think about 50 or 60 at around
1:00 and it looks well the the,

414
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,800
the geologists at Q2 correctly
upon that they'd identified a,

415
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:33,200
a, a mineralised pegmatite
system of say 200 to 20 metres

416
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,120
cumulative.
It looked as if they'd

417
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:40,920
potentially drilled under the
pegmatite and then they drilled

418
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,240
a bit to the north and then for
some reason they stopped.

419
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,720
So this is probably an example
of one that.

420
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:51,720
Yeah, Yeah, it's, it's one that
we had a really good look at and

421
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:57,000
you had sort of three holes
drilled, 2 of them hit

422
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,040
mineralisation.
As Chris says, you know, once

423
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:05,240
about 115 meters above a percent
decent interval, you've got four

424
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,880
or five stack pigmentites that
they've gone through.

425
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,480
And then they've stepped out
sort of Northeast, hit a bit

426
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:19,280
more, gone under it South and
then stopped and said, oh, you

427
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,240
know, I don't know.
For for whatever whatever

428
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,280
reason, they stopped exploring
it and sold it to Q2.

429
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:30,080
Our assumption was, well, it
could be any number of

430
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,480
directions around the, the most
southern extent of the whole.

431
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,800
You know, if you take a view
that it's dipping back to the

432
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:45,280
southwest and they've gone under
it, the body could continue 158

433
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,560
meters, not a insignificant
interval to begin with.

434
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:57,000
And we sort of thought, what's
the probability that, you know,

435
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,840
five or six of these stacked
pigmentites, one of which is 45

436
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:05,320
meters, simply form a Halo of
about 50 meters wide.

437
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:10,360
It's pretty unlikely.
It's it's more likely that they

438
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:16,280
continue somewhere else or, you
know, there might be a a fault

439
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,680
of some sort that split them off
in their continued depth.

440
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:24,960
But the idea was that that area
needed more exploration to test

441
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,040
it properly.
Yeah.

442
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,600
And that was that was the
premise of the investment.

443
00:28:29,360 --> 00:28:33,160
You don't often get to buy
something it's effectively post

444
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:37,720
discovery but it's it's packaged
and valued pre prediscoverably.

445
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:38,800
If you're a student, it was a
gift.

446
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,560
Absolute gift.
Yeah.

447
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:46,160
But you know, the vendors took a
script in Q2.

448
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,240
Maybe they just thought better
off giving it to someone else to

449
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,200
explore and we'll take the
equity upside which they've

450
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,080
enjoyed.
And you know, this is 1 again.

451
00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:04,840
It's gone from one of our early
discovery opportunities to now

452
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,640
what we think will be a very
important strategic asset for

453
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,040
Canada, So.
It goes from one of your pillars

454
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:13,720
to.
The IT has now that it's no one

455
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,440
there, you know the the ore body
is there.

456
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:20,600
If it was part of that first
pillar and we didn't think it

457
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,240
could be moving to another one,
then we'd probably sell it.

458
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,680
There's a lot going for that
outside of the size of the ore

459
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,360
body.
I mean the exploration target

460
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:32,880
they put out the other day,
215,000,000 tonnes to 329 at 1

461
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,480
to 1.4%.
You know it's going to be one of

462
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,560
the largest Hard Rock splodge
man deposits globally.

463
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:42,440
But in addition to that, it's
you know 10 KS from the Billy

464
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:46,200
Diamond highway that then
connects further to shipping

465
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,880
routes.
There's a there's a lot going

466
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:50,560
for it just outside of the size.
So it's.

467
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,240
From surface, yeah, and it dips
pretty favourably.

468
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,440
It's.
It'd be a 2 or $3 billion

469
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,920
company a couple of years ago.
That's what we could say, yeah.

470
00:29:57,960 --> 00:29:59,760
Or maybe a couple a couple of
years from now.

471
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,440
Like the optimistic Yeah A.
Couple months from now.

472
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,200
I, I can't help but you know,
I've noticed a plethora of kind

473
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:12,120
of acquisition stocks that have
been in your portfolio.

474
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,320
Yeah, over over the last yeah,
like 1212 odd months too.

475
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:19,120
And I can, I can think
distinctly of E World Metals

476
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,960
Acquisition Corp and and
Adriatic come come to mind.

477
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,520
All, Yep, all, all acquired
within.

478
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,600
Admittedly, we didn't.
We didn't, we, we owned Adriatic

479
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:40,200
as a from IPO and saw the
discovery of yeah, the repeat

480
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:41,840
Che deposit.
That's right.

481
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:51,400
So we, we, we sold that, you
know, after the discovery phase,

482
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,040
after it had all been drilled
out.

483
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:59,640
Gotcha.
But it's one of those assets

484
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:05,960
where because it's So what, you
know, the quality's so high that

485
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,760
it doesn't matter.
You could have picked it up at

486
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,600
the same price, you know, two
years later or, or, or paid

487
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:16,320
more, you know, those sort of
real quality assets.

488
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,720
I'm just looking at your logo,
sort of withstand the heat of

489
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:24,160
the Lassen curve.
Look at WA 1 even Q2 at the

490
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:29,520
moment, Adriatic, they they all
sort of humbly, you know move up

491
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,800
in a very orderly manner as as
they go through that.

492
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:45,440
But to go to your question on
Mac, we wanted sort of some

493
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:51,800
larger scale Australian copper,
copper exposure when you make

494
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:58,680
it's a good operator and it
presented a good M&A opportunity

495
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:04,680
I guess from the outset.
If they could, if they could

496
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:10,880
deal with the I guess ugly
corporate and capital structure

497
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:17,000
issues that they presented from
IPOIPO on the would we have

498
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:18,960
liked a little bit more of a
premium?

499
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:24,080
Yes.
But I still think, you know, in

500
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,840
that environment, when you're
that deep in the Earth's crust

501
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,440
trying to mine copper, it's not
a bad outcome.

502
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,680
Where you did get a better
outcome was New World.

503
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,560
You had the luxury of two
competing bidders going toe to.

504
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:47,680
Toe new new world, new world was
an excellent investment for us.

505
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:52,880
But we we it's been through a
few different vehicles that

506
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:56,480
Antler asset we've been exposed
to it, I guess I should say

507
00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:01,120
through different vehicles.
So we first came across it when

508
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:06,640
we were shareholders in Trident
royalties, which was taken out

509
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:12,880
by doTerra and they held.
So Trident held a royalty over

510
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:15,960
the antler asset.
So we got familiar with it then

511
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,880
always thought it was a great,
great asset.

512
00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,520
Again, quite strategic for US
purposes.

513
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:31,400
Eventually high grade needed a
few more tons, but that's what

514
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,120
we saw over the last 12 to 18
months, a bit more money spent

515
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:40,760
on it start to position itself
as a, a viable source of copper

516
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:45,320
in the US.
So that was that was one of the

517
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:50,720
reasons as they started that
sort of strategy to for us to re

518
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:57,200
enter it directly and that ended
up being a good call in the end.

519
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,320
Did we think that there was
going to be a bidding war on it?

520
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:07,120
No, absolutely not.
But are we thankful?

521
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:13,159
There was, yes.
So a lot's going the way if

522
00:34:13,159 --> 00:34:17,480
you're kind of set up over the
last, yeah, 1212 to 18 months,

523
00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:20,480
maybe some of it like, but a lot
of it skill and a good process

524
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:21,920
to support it.
What?

525
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:24,560
What hasn't gone to plan?
Yeah.

526
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,440
I mean, it's, yeah.
How long do you have?

527
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:31,600
There's been, I'd say a comment
without pointing out individual

528
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,120
names.
I think there's a very common

529
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,719
thread through the ones that
haven't gone right.

530
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:42,199
And those are probably that
where there's a commodity that's

531
00:34:42,199 --> 00:34:47,639
trading into the cost curve,
deep into the cost curve, where

532
00:34:48,199 --> 00:34:51,120
the time that it trades into the
cost curve is longer than we

533
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:56,679
have expected or hoped.
And then the key part is when

534
00:34:56,679 --> 00:35:01,560
they've had debt involved.
And that really if you're, if

535
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,880
you're operating into your cost
curve and you're not generating

536
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:08,200
much cash and you got debt quite
often that's it.

537
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,640
Yeah, it brings duress to the
equity holders.

538
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,600
So and that's where we
participate.

539
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,920
So and quite often a lot of
these have had a decent dose of

540
00:35:16,720 --> 00:35:19,640
management underperformance.
They're the ones that haven't

541
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,200
worked out so well.
You know, some in the coal

542
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:28,960
sector, some in the lithium
sector, They're, they're two key

543
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,760
sectors that spring to mind.
Yeah, I mean, we, we heard one

544
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:37,720
of your, one of your presenters
talk about vanadium being this

545
00:35:37,720 --> 00:35:44,280
year's big, I guess the
contrarian view, positive

546
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:48,640
contrarian view, which we
thought, you know, probably

547
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:54,400
sounds about right.
And so we we've had vanadium in

548
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,960
the portfolio.
It's been a tough hold because

549
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,560
you know, there's different
different thematics, different

550
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,240
technologies that are coming to
market, which have promised

551
00:36:05,240 --> 00:36:09,720
certain growth profiles that
haven't been met to say that

552
00:36:09,720 --> 00:36:11,880
they won't roll out that way in
the future.

553
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:16,280
Not sure, could be a great
commodity to be in, might not be

554
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,240
as well.
And so they're the kind of

555
00:36:18,240 --> 00:36:20,720
tricky ones where you can kind
of see light at the end of the

556
00:36:20,720 --> 00:36:22,600
tunnel.
And so you're investing now

557
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:27,680
where you see value, but that
light might just keep getting

558
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,680
further and further away from
you, so.

559
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,000
Everyone's numbers are
different, but one of the yeah,

560
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,400
kind of like analysts that I was
looking at the other day.

561
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:40,600
So 15% of vanadium demand 2025
attributable to like battery

562
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,560
storage, that number was like 0%
like 6 years ago.

563
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:47,120
So it is, it's an increasingly
like a, yeah, significant

564
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,400
proportion of of the composition
of demand for vanadium is a is a

565
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,120
big growth.
Market it is, I think that

566
00:36:52,240 --> 00:36:56,440
that's probably been exacerbated
by the lack of demand in the in

567
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:59,560
the steelmaking side of things.
So you know, as that comes as

568
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:05,280
that's come down, vanadium redox
flow batteries increased.

569
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,640
And so you've kind of got a
disproportionate setting.

570
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:13,160
If you were, you know,
representation of the market, if

571
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:18,040
you were to have the Chinese
property sector firing on all

572
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,320
cylinders, I'm sure that
percentage would be diluted.

573
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:28,320
Do we think it's a an area of
growth, you know those those

574
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,280
vanadium redox flow batteries?
Yeah, absolutely.

575
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:38,840
They're incredible pieces of
technology which bridge a gap

576
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:45,240
between, you know, kind of gas
and lithium batteries, you know,

577
00:37:45,240 --> 00:37:51,920
providing somewhat long term
energy solutions and, and I

578
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,720
guess could be grid scale
battery solutions.

579
00:37:55,720 --> 00:37:59,240
And some of them are being
rolled out in China and and

580
00:37:59,240 --> 00:38:05,600
elsewhere, but just haven't
quite seen the adoption of those

581
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,200
batteries affect the vanadium
pricing yet.

582
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:12,680
With good projects that are sort
of few and far between as well,

583
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,480
right?
Yeah, yeah, that's right.

584
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:18,280
And and there are a couple of
quality projects, but there's

585
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,720
also a lot of bad supply, cheap
supply.

586
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,480
If if we round out the the third
pillar of your approach as well,

587
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,800
I'm really curious, this is the
established producers who might

588
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,320
be trading in the cost curve or
showing value for for a variety

589
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,680
of reasons.
How much time do you sort of

590
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,920
spend and came to have you guys
run through us a couple of

591
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,360
names, yeah.
Yeah, we do.

592
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:45,160
I mean, we do a lot of a lot of
work on producers as well and a

593
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,920
lot of it's, you know,
benchmarking and you know, being

594
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,960
value investors going down the
curve and, and saying what

595
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:55,520
presents good value.
One that springs to mind that we

596
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:59,960
do still hold and I still think
Joe's compelling value at the

597
00:38:59,960 --> 00:39:04,160
moment is Glencore.
It's got one of the largest, you

598
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:08,880
know, coal production bases of,
you know, tier one quality

599
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,040
globally produces nearly
1,000,000 tons of copper.

600
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,400
It's got a marketing division
which is worth maybe as much as

601
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,560
the whole mining business.
And you see at the moment things

602
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:25,480
like Anglo Tech, BHP coming for
Anglo last year, you know, Mac

603
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:30,640
being sold, NWC being sold.
There's just a lot of demand for

604
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,960
copper projects and copper mines
globally and it's something that

605
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:39,200
we we can't find enough of.
And so we do think, you know,

606
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:43,280
things like Glencore present
compelling value at the moment.

607
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,520
That's probably one of the
production names that we that we

608
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:49,400
do hold and still think is, you
know, presents good value.

609
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:51,920
Yeah.
I mean it's presented good value

610
00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:56,360
for a good year and a half now
for for for how long we've held

611
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,840
it.
You know, they have missed

612
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:00,840
guidance a couple of times,
especially their copper

613
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:04,560
divisions.
But it is trading historically

614
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,040
very cheap.
It's got great assets.

615
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:11,840
It's positioning itself well.
I think there was a lot of

616
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:17,040
promise around listings
elsewhere and it kind of spooked

617
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,960
1/2 of the market and then lived
up to the other half.

618
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:25,400
So it's got a wild comeback.
But yeah, there's a kind of good

619
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:30,320
that's a good example of a so
where, you know, we see value

620
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:35,400
now in the right, in the right
copper and particularly coal

621
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,560
environment can really
outperform.

622
00:40:39,240 --> 00:40:43,880
I, yeah, I, I'm, I I could peel
into to Glencore all day

623
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:48,560
fascinating company and my views
always evolving with with that

624
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,480
one.
But yeah, some of the parts you

625
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:52,800
kind of get comfortable.
Can they realise that some of

626
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:57,320
the parts of value it's to yeah,
like a a pretty a pretty dynamic

627
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,080
landscape with the majors and
yeah, their strategy has sort of

628
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,080
been nowhere in in some.
Respects to.

629
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,280
It's been a bit disjointed.
I feel like they're starting to

630
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,000
get a bit of a better hold on on
that.

631
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,240
Came to see how it plays out
over the next six months.

632
00:41:13,240 --> 00:41:16,400
Fascinating to see Glasenburg
pick up more stock recently as

633
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,680
well, albeit small given his
sort of huge interest already.

634
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:23,200
Yep, it just adds to the the
curiosity around Glenn who I

635
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,680
find.
The lazy 50 million, wasn't it?

636
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,480
Something like that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

637
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:29,040
Pocket.
Change.

638
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,560
That's it.
And Firefly also in this

639
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,200
category.
Yeah, Yep, yeah.

640
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:37,840
Firefly was a really interesting
one.

641
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:41,240
Another thing I would sort of
recommend to people looking at

642
00:41:41,240 --> 00:41:47,960
these sort of early, early stage
exploration or development, it's

643
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,960
just to try.
And I mean that's one of the

644
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,200
beauties of our industry is you
can go out and meet with

645
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:54,640
management, speak with
management.

646
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:58,360
They generally have the time for
you down, down this side of the

647
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,840
market.
That's that's a privilege that

648
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,840
you don't necessarily see
elsewhere or in other

649
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:10,080
industries, but that that that
when they first picked that up,

650
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,960
that was the first thing we did
was go and meet with management

651
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,960
chat to them about the Ming mine
what what it had done

652
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:22,320
historically, why they thought
that they could explore for it

653
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:26,760
differently or find more tons
copper elsewhere, which they

654
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:31,200
have done and very well if.
That was an interesting one.

655
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,600
They flipped the.
They flipped the subscale

656
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,880
production story on its head and
said no, that's that.

657
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:39,280
That's probably not the way to
do this.

658
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,240
I think we dropped the
production.

659
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,760
We will put the plan on care and
maintenance.

660
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,360
We'll keep it on care and
maintenance and we'll go and

661
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,160
explore.
That's what they've done in the

662
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,320
last two years.
Yeah.

663
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:52,920
And they've obviously leaned
into a lot of that football zone

664
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,120
that that sits under it, under
the existing mine.

665
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:02,240
And it's become its own
refreshed story.

666
00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:08,920
I suppose you're taking a a good
management team, decent asset

667
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:16,120
and turning it into a very good
asset that that was value backed

668
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,560
obviously at the time.
Well, what we thought was value

669
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:23,600
backed in pickle crow.
So you know, you've got a multi

670
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:30,560
million ounce high grade gold
deposit in your back pocket and

671
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:36,200
it was only trading like it was
it like it had bought pickle

672
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,640
crow.
So it was a bit of a no brainer

673
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:44,400
for us on a valuation front.
And and it actually took two or

674
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:48,480
three months after the
acquisition for the market to

675
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,120
start to catch on.
So people do have time.

676
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:55,600
I think they think some of the
time they have more time than

677
00:43:55,600 --> 00:44:00,480
they realized to have a proper
look at these, at these

678
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,440
acquisitions.
Discovery is a little different

679
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:10,920
because they're they're quite
reactive volatile.

680
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:15,760
So, but acquisitions, I think
people can spend a bit more time

681
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,440
on DD.
Yeah.

682
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:24,400
And maybe before I ask you what
portfolio looks like now, have

683
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:29,080
you, have you kind of got a, a
pretty, pretty sound do not

684
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:33,360
touch lists now like have you,
have you honed in the, the, the

685
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:36,880
gut instinct on like places to
avoid or areas to avoid or

686
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:40,120
people to avoid?
Yes, Yeah, Yeah, we do have one.

687
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,960
There's a blacklist.
Yeah.

688
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,400
I mean, it's trial and error.
I think on a commodity basis,

689
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:53,520
there's not many.
It's mostly mostly correlates to

690
00:44:55,240 --> 00:44:59,560
which commodities might not be
scarce, might be readily

691
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,400
available and abundant on the
earth.

692
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:08,040
And then Chris can talk more to
the jurisdictional.

693
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:10,680
Stuff, yeah, I mean the
jurisdictions has been one that

694
00:45:11,360 --> 00:45:13,200
we've, yeah got a few battle
scars on.

695
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,800
You know, we, we don't say we
definitely won't invest in

696
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:21,880
certain jurisdictions, but we
certainly like to avoid certain

697
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:26,000
jurisdictions.
Some in West Africa we've

698
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:31,280
learnt, learnt the hard way on.
And you know, I think quite

699
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,080
often, you know, again, being
value investors, there can be,

700
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,960
you know, you can be lured into
a value trap sometimes.

701
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:43,200
And a lot of it's I think you
know, investing in mining stocks

702
00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:47,200
and mining in general and
exploring and developing mines

703
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:51,920
is, is difficult enough as it is
to then have to deal with

704
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,000
unstable jurisdictions can just
add a whole another element that

705
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,040
sometimes the value proposition
doesn't stack up, sometimes it

706
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,120
does.
And we have invested in West

707
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:06,040
African gold explorers and and
done OK out of them even in very

708
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,800
tricky jurisdictions.
But I think it has to be have

709
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:14,360
that value backstop there.
So, yeah, things like Mali,

710
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,000
Tabani, those sort of things,
you know, they're, they're great

711
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:25,000
assets whether you can be there
or, or WAFF, you know, whether

712
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:29,040
you, whether your stomach is
hard enough to take on the risk.

713
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,360
That's really the question
you've got to ask yourself.

714
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,520
A lot of people do and they make
really good money, choose to be

715
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:37,720
quite selective out of it, maybe
sleep a bit better, but we could

716
00:46:37,720 --> 00:46:39,720
be making some really good
margins out of there.

717
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,680
But you can see what happens
when it goes wrong as well.

718
00:46:42,720 --> 00:46:45,040
How much is going out to site a
part of the process for you

719
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:46,640
guys?
Yeah, it's big.

720
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:48,920
It's big.
We we try to go on as many site

721
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:50,080
trips as possible.
Really.

722
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,400
We've been, yeah, we've been
around, done a few.

723
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:56,320
We've been to Telfer, we've been
to China, we've he's been to

724
00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:00,080
Brazil.
Yeah, we've been all around WA.

725
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:04,520
Yeah, lots of WA stuff.
That's an easy but over to the

726
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,800
US, Yeah, try, try to get a feel
for things.

727
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:13,000
I'd say probably the Brazil and
China trips were probably the

728
00:47:13,000 --> 00:47:20,040
most eye opening just seeing
what you can do with a, a, a

729
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,440
cheap and very good labor force
over in China.

730
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:26,880
They are light years, light
years ahead of us.

731
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:33,680
But Brazil on, on, on and
probably talk more through

732
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,680
China.
But Brazil, I went over there

733
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:41,240
and had a look at the clay
projects and Sigma Lithium and a

734
00:47:41,240 --> 00:47:47,600
few other things and I was
pretty impressed with what they

735
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:51,120
can achieve over there in very
remote areas of Brazil as well.

736
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:56,480
The quality of the geology and
the ore bodies out there.

737
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:58,840
There's a lot going for in
Brazil.

738
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,600
Lots of stuff in Australia.
Do you know what else is a super

739
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,840
important way of meeting
management in Australia mate?

740
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,240
I thought you were about to to
tell me that the the boys have

741
00:48:09,240 --> 00:48:12,040
been on a site visit to Sydney.
They have, they have.

742
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:13,440
They're going on another one as
well.

743
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,680
It's coming up.
This site visit they're going on

744
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,120
is October 21st, October 23rd in
Sydney.

745
00:48:19,520 --> 00:48:22,640
Investors go free.
It's the imark conference mate.

746
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:24,600
Imark Conference investors go
free.

747
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:27,400
Guess what mate, we're going.
We're going as well, Yeah it's

748
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:29,920
stacked with a heap of 6
speakers as well mate.

749
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:33,760
Three day conference whether you
want to chat with small caps,

750
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,400
mid caps and bigger companies.
There's government there,

751
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,520
there's a whole host of
financier type of people.

752
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:42,360
International companies as well.
It's.

753
00:48:42,720 --> 00:48:45,360
A service providers tech.
Yeah, it's a plethora of

754
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:48,880
different names and a wicked way
to to meet people and just get

755
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,640
your pulse on what's happening
in the Australian resources

756
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:53,800
market, in the global resources
market, whether it be the

757
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:55,880
financing, the commodities or
the government angle.

758
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,440
Like you say mate.
So it's a conference not to miss

759
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,880
in Sydney October 21 to 23rd.
Get your tickets.

760
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:04,360
Come join us.
Should we talk about how the the

761
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:05,760
portfolio is positioned right
now?

762
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:09,600
I think this is a a super
interesting part that a lot of

763
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,600
people out there would be keen
to hear and you guys have some

764
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:17,800
pretty, pretty interesting
positions more broadly in in the

765
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,200
portfolio.
So I'd love to hear you guys

766
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:20,120
unpack that.
Sure.

767
00:49:21,240 --> 00:49:25,760
Yes, we're pretty.
We're pretty well positioned in

768
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:29,920
cash at the moment as well as
well as precious metal stocks.

769
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:30,960
But what?
Percentage.

770
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,360
Precious.
Metals.

771
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,480
Precious.
Cash, Cash only equivalent.

772
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:39,040
Yeah, yeah, it'd.
Be 5060. 60%.

773
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,000
That's that's a, that's a huge
number.

774
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:42,200
It's.
A huge number.

775
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:42,880
Yeah, it is.
It is.

776
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,360
And we've never been this high
before.

777
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,280
It's a pretty pessimistic kind
of deal of.

778
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,240
Capital markets, I think no,
yeah, I'd, I'd struggle to call

779
00:49:51,240 --> 00:49:54,840
it pessimistic as opportunistic,
opportunistic.

780
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:57,160
Right, so you're maximizing your
optionality for.

781
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,600
Yeah, I think a lot of our, our
strategy has been playing out

782
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:05,560
over the last six months.
You know, when we were talking

783
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:09,000
about investing in things for
3-4 years ago, they're now

784
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,680
they're now being able to be
monetized and, and realized and

785
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,360
it's taken a while for us to get
here.

786
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:21,640
But I think it's probably more a
factor of giving ourselves a pat

787
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,760
on the back and and saying well
done and monetizing thing as

788
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:30,280
opposed to not being willing to
invest in things, albeit we

789
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,440
wouldn't have the most
optimistic view on the global

790
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:35,120
market at the moment.
Was it is it fair to say that

791
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,800
you you think opportunities that
are that are showing real value

792
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:41,920
are hard to come by?
I think it's more of a factor of

793
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:46,880
harvesting positions that have
played out and and then looking

794
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:52,320
to the next investment really
and just being very aware that

795
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,680
markets at all time highs, the
trade wars are completely in the

796
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,360
rear vision mirror.
You know, the markets not

797
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:04,120
pricing in any factor of that
flaring up again or you know,

798
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:07,440
blowing up again.
You know, those days in April

799
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:12,240
are complete distant memory now.
So, you know, the fact that the

800
00:51:12,240 --> 00:51:15,680
global economies, you know,
fumbling along, it's growing

801
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,520
just, we are in a bit of a
Goldilocks scenario where the,

802
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:24,280
you know, inflation's not high
enough, but the jobless rates

803
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:27,080
are going up just enough.
So they'll, they'll lease rates

804
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,960
this month.
I think we're, you know, but as

805
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:32,920
I said, we're, the markets are
at an all time high.

806
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:34,480
It won't take much for it to
pull back a bit.

807
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:38,120
And then we're we are positioned
well to deploy some of that

808
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:41,920
capital and you know things like
copper names we're underweight

809
00:51:41,920 --> 00:51:45,240
now just just a factor of
selling into some takeovers and

810
00:51:45,240 --> 00:51:48,880
things like that so.
The to put you yes, there

811
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:53,880
there's it's been harder to find
quality assets at decent

812
00:51:53,880 --> 00:52:01,840
valuations, but that's kind of a
byproduct of the market cycle in

813
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:07,280
what we believe we're starting
to see higher valuations on

814
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:12,800
things, lower earnings and
that's kind of the time we like

815
00:52:12,800 --> 00:52:18,800
to be monetizing things.
You have gold at where it is for

816
00:52:18,800 --> 00:52:20,920
a reason.
You've still got a lot of

817
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:24,600
central bank buying.
What is it?

818
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:29,760
the US, Germany, Italy, France
have a sort of 70% of their

819
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:36,280
their value in reserve in gold.
You've got most domestic, sorry,

820
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,120
most.
Developing.

821
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:45,160
Develop markets at about 20% and
then you've got emerging markets

822
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:50,240
which for some reason still
includes China at 7 1/2%.

823
00:52:50,280 --> 00:52:55,640
And there's a few of those
countries which are re mandating

824
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:59,120
that their golden reserve needs
to come up to a circa 20%.

825
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:04,520
So you're going to have huge
amounts of buying from policy

826
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:10,840
makers, government bodies to try
and meet those revised numbers.

827
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:16,880
And I think the stat was if
China was to keep buying at the

828
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:27,320
rate it is to meet a 20% gold in
reserve percent, it would be

829
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:32,440
buying for around 18 months.
Yeah, yeah. 18 more months. 18

830
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:37,760
more months, yeah, so.
So why not I wanna put a greater

831
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:40,920
proportion of the fund in, in,
in gold, gold miners which can

832
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:44,920
benefit from that margin even in
a, you know, a a bear case

833
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,400
outlook.
That's kind of what we're doing

834
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,800
at the moment.
So yeah, there's cash and gold

835
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:56,080
we're still very constructive on
and then strategic assets again

836
00:53:56,080 --> 00:54:00,120
that term that we think will be
important to delivering into,

837
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:09,080
you know, Western objectives to
to disconnect themselves from

838
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:11,800
Chinese supply.
How do you think about the, the

839
00:54:11,800 --> 00:54:16,320
sort of frothiness in critical
minerals, strategic minerals,

840
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,560
however you want to sort of
frame it, there's, there's been

841
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:21,840
pockets in, in those various
markets, whether it be rare

842
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:25,920
earths or others that have been
quite, quite sort of excessive

843
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,360
in the, in the runs up lately.
Does that give you a bit of

844
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:31,040
pause?
Yeah, I think a lot of it's in

845
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,800
those strategic, you know in
those critical minerals and rare

846
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,480
earths it's it's finding assets
that can get through to

847
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:41,640
production that are not just you
know rock chips and a bit of

848
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,400
early stage exploration.
It's it's finding something of

849
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:47,960
that may be of strategic value.
That's that's where we really

850
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:49,840
focus on those types of
critical.

851
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:54,680
And it's really difficult to
bring rare earth assets to mark

852
00:54:54,680 --> 00:54:59,400
or to production I should say.
And then trying to convince the

853
00:54:59,400 --> 00:55:04,680
market to bring on rare earth
assets which have never been

854
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:08,520
developed.
So you know, you have you have

855
00:55:08,520 --> 00:55:14,200
certain clay, clay projects, you
have some which are hosted in

856
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:19,480
Chef Kanados and a time instead
of the usual Monozart Bassinat.

857
00:55:20,360 --> 00:55:26,480
So there's still a lot of
teething and learning to be done

858
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:34,280
for the rare earth industry.
And so you can still find very

859
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:39,960
good value in really good assets
which have been developed

860
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:44,160
before.
So that's kind of where we focus

861
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:50,680
at the moment.
And the gold positions that you

862
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:54,360
still see have some value, Are
they?

863
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,280
Are they producers, developers?
Both of the above.

864
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:02,560
We're actually, we've entered a
few explorers, yeah, of like,

865
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,640
yeah, color developers.
Down the, down the chain a bit,

866
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:07,520
yeah.
Perspecting the the retail

867
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,880
further to go further down you
get the more outsized returns.

868
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:12,080
Yeah.
I mean, you could find the

869
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:16,960
returns a year ago and get some
pretty big names and they've,

870
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:21,680
they've, you know, been doing a
lot of catch up over that time.

871
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,160
And, and, and now they've sort
of caught up.

872
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:28,440
And I know I'm kind of going
against what I'm saying about

873
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:33,880
gold going up even further, but
the, the flow of money has been

874
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:38,120
so prevalent now it's pushing,
pushing further down into, well,

875
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,840
it's already been through
developers and now it's starting

876
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:44,560
to push through into explorers.
Still a lot of money to be made

877
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:49,960
in all three areas.
It's just where we see the value

878
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,480
and where we've, you know,
previously been in the Remelius

879
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:55,920
and the Spartans and it's rolled
over into some other ones.

880
00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:59,400
And then now it's rolled down
the curve in the into explorers.

881
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:02,480
And there's been a couple of,
yeah, really compelling

882
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:04,880
explorers slash developers that
we've seen lately, which we've

883
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:05,960
invested in.
Yeah, because.

884
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,480
Everyone's been focused on the
producers, so there hasn't been

885
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,680
a lot of capital flying into
these explorers.

886
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:15,000
When you say explorers, do they
have a a resource or?

887
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:18,080
They yeah, generally they'll
have hints in and around the

888
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:24,520
area or or they'll be bringing
it to market, you know for an

889
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:26,200
IPO.
But it's more of a defined

890
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:32,200
resource which could expand.
You know, I think development we

891
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:37,200
more more or less classify as as
where the discovery exploration

892
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:41,080
is over.
Yeah, yeah, makes sense.

893
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:45,600
And there was, there was one a
quote from Dahlia you you shared

894
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:51,640
with with us last week.
He says it's an unhealthy market

895
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:54,400
bloated with fat slash debt.
A doctor would warn of a heart

896
00:57:54,400 --> 00:57:56,680
attack.
Do you think a heart attack's on

897
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:59,360
its way?
Certainly hope not.

898
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:02,480
Possibly we're positioned well
if it does.

899
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,960
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, I don't know if a lot of

900
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:10,480
cash and gold helps with heart
attacks, but if it does then

901
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:13,400
we'll be sitting pretty.
Does help you sleep easier?

902
00:58:13,720 --> 00:58:18,400
Yeah, the risk of Yeah, high
cholesterol and heart failure.

903
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:21,200
He was.
I think he's right though.

904
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:26,400
I mean, it's a very toppy, very
blow to debt, bloated globe at

905
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:29,480
the moment, especially for
Western countries.

906
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:37,320
So something's got to give.
How do you think about sort of

907
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:42,040
constantly reassessing that that
worldview and where the

908
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:45,920
portfolio sort of sits?
Is that weekly meetings between

909
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:49,240
you guys or just looking at
benchmarks at their indices

910
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:51,320
around the world, commodity
prices, these sorts of things?

911
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:56,920
I mean, we're doing it, we're
looking at it day and night and

912
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,240
you know, so we're, we're
obviously just discussing it,

913
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:02,120
you know, every day.
But it's, we have weekly

914
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:05,880
meetings where we go through the
portfolio, go through the news

915
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:11,560
of note, different macro micro
changes, specific things that

916
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:16,680
happen in certain commodities to
where it constantly, you know,

917
00:59:16,920 --> 00:59:19,720
learning and, and evolving our
strategy.

918
00:59:19,720 --> 00:59:24,040
And one thing we do, we make a
note of doing is after we exit a

919
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:28,080
position, whether it's for a
good reason or a bad reason, we

920
00:59:28,080 --> 00:59:32,040
discuss what went right, what
went wrong, what can we learn

921
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,160
from it.
And we we take that forward with

922
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:40,320
us into our new investments.
It's it's striking that you've

923
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:44,800
had such enormous returns from
like, you know, exploration

924
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,040
success or the kind of kind of
like bull market kind of

925
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:49,840
dynamics.
And now the portfolio is so

926
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:51,480
defensive like to make that
switch.

927
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:53,520
It's rare.
Normally people kind of that

928
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:55,560
will, that will double down on
the thing that has already

929
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,240
worked as opposed to taking a a
vastly different strategy.

930
00:59:58,240 --> 01:00:01,560
And and if, if you get this
right, it's it's just a

931
01:00:02,040 --> 01:00:04,960
remarkable capital allegation.
Yeah, and forget this wrong.

932
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:06,080
I'm sure we'll cop a bit of
hate.

933
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:12,840
I Yeah, as we sort of said, it's
not because we're ultra bearish.

934
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,320
Yeah.
You know, I do think the

935
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:20,320
economy, when the global economy
can come out of the other end of

936
01:00:20,320 --> 01:00:25,520
all all these, you know, tariff
wars and bloated debt and, you

937
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:33,560
know, deglobalization issues by
productivity means.

938
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:37,840
So electrification, AI,
robotics, you know, things that

939
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,760
you're gonna stimulate the
globe, things that are gonna

940
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:45,200
bring real demand to commodities
can definitely pull us out of

941
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:47,800
all this.
And don't get us wrong, we're

942
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:51,880
extremely constructive on
commodities and the commodity

943
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:55,120
outlook for the medium and long
term.

944
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:58,960
It's just at this very moment.
Do you wanna be piling in at the

945
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:02,400
top of the market or would you
ideally try to do it lower?

946
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:08,320
And maybe we're being too cute,
but I think, I think you've got

947
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:10,600
a bit of time to have all this
play out.

948
01:01:10,960 --> 01:01:12,920
And if the opportunity arises,
we invest in it.

949
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:15,560
Yeah, just so happens that right
now it's not, not in front of

950
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:17,120
us.
We've got our strategic

951
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:18,960
investments.
Yep.

952
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:23,120
Yeah, like we did.
We did just take investment in a

953
01:01:23,280 --> 01:01:27,600
rare earth hopeful where it's
got a joint venture with another

954
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:33,920
major mineral sand rare earth
producer in Australia and

955
01:01:33,920 --> 01:01:36,760
there's an asset over in Kenya
that they're looking at and

956
01:01:36,920 --> 01:01:39,640
strategic importance of those to
the both the government's.

957
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:44,600
So where it makes sense, where
it meets our quality threshold

958
01:01:44,600 --> 01:01:49,480
and where it where it falls into
one of our strategies, we'll,

959
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:52,120
we'll definitely still.
Look at it, I still feel this

960
01:01:52,120 --> 01:01:56,960
sort of real philosophy on, on
managing money, that it is your

961
01:01:56,960 --> 01:01:59,680
money in the fund.
You're not trying to in a sense

962
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:05,680
knock it out the the in terms of
performance at risk of having a

963
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:08,720
base of, of wealth that kind of
grows is that, am I picking up

964
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:12,360
on it right?
Yeah, I think that way you

965
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:15,440
haven't been in the industry for
in 20 years and you're trying to

966
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,560
set yourself up as the new fund
manager.

967
01:02:18,160 --> 01:02:21,800
You want to be getting some
decent returns, but not risking

968
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:25,040
everyone's capital just to get
it because it's not like you can

969
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:26,760
close up the fund and move to
the next one.

970
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:33,480
So we are cautious with the way
we use our money, but today the

971
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:37,440
strategies that we've
implemented have proven to be

972
01:02:37,440 --> 01:02:39,840
quite lucrative.
So we'll continue running that

973
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:43,040
out.
Speak to me a bit about some of

974
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:45,960
those those things that you're
very kind of constructive on

975
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:50,320
with a more medium term outlook.
And yeah, like is it going to be

976
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:52,760
more of the same in terms of the
types of allocations that you've

977
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,280
had today or do you think you'll
you'll lean kind of kind of

978
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:57,360
harder into different types of
commodities?

979
01:02:58,120 --> 01:03:01,280
I think rare earths is still
front and centre and quite

980
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:03,480
prevalent.
I mean, we've got what, one or

981
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:07,920
two mines in the Western world
now and we all know how

982
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:12,040
important rare earths are going
to be for, you know, electric

983
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:15,120
vehicles, robotics, weaponry.
You know, it's going to play

984
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:18,560
more into that defence
discussion that we had earlier.

985
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:23,800
I just think that there's some,
you know, real strategic assets

986
01:03:23,800 --> 01:03:27,240
out there that can still
generate a lot of value like

987
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:29,440
that commerce resources that we
mentioned earlier, which has,

988
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:32,200
you know, largest, yeah, ashram
project.

989
01:03:33,680 --> 01:03:39,240
It's, you know, 200 million
tonnes of 2% TREO with good met

990
01:03:39,240 --> 01:03:42,040
characteristics.
There's things like that which

991
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:45,600
you know, strategic assets in
strategic minerals which we

992
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:47,640
still think there's value to be
made.

993
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:53,240
And people forget as well,
there's only two producers of

994
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:58,920
rare earths in the Western
world, you know, 22 well known

995
01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:03,960
producers, and the rest of it is
controlled by China and China

996
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:07,000
allies and stuff like that.
Yeah, there's a lot of work to

997
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:10,600
be done there, a lot of money to
be spent to get Western

998
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,200
countries up to where they need
to be to be competitive.

999
01:04:13,600 --> 01:04:16,520
Yeah, I think that plays into
that NATO spend as well as a lot

1000
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:20,520
of one of the amazing things
about that is not just the 5% of

1001
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:25,000
GDP, it's the the 1.5% of that
can be spent on infrastructure.

1002
01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:28,440
So it's assisting some of these
projects which might not have

1003
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,880
great access to ports and things
like that.

1004
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:33,360
Getting those to market.
It's I think that's going to be

1005
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:35,960
huge in the commodity space in
the next 10 years.

1006
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,440
And you mentioned the sort of
constructive look on, on

1007
01:04:39,440 --> 01:04:41,800
commodities in general,
obviously railroads you've just

1008
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:44,320
mentioned as well.
Are there other specific

1009
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:48,200
commodities or pockets or themes
that you're you're super bullish

1010
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:52,720
on as well?
I still think lithium despite

1011
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:56,560
where it's sitting right now, I
think if you can find a, you

1012
01:04:56,560 --> 01:05:01,640
know, a potential tier one asset
and it's quite good to be an

1013
01:05:01,640 --> 01:05:04,480
explorer at the moment in
lithium instead of a producer or

1014
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:07,520
a developer because of the hard
times that the prevailing

1015
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:10,920
prices, you know, deploying onto
those those companies.

1016
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:16,040
Yeah, I do think lithium, you
know, I think we're very early

1017
01:05:16,040 --> 01:05:22,200
in the demand thematic there of
the a vase of the robotics of

1018
01:05:22,200 --> 01:05:24,320
the best.
Yeah, people forget that it is a

1019
01:05:24,560 --> 01:05:29,360
nascent industry.
It's, you know, it's, it's, it's

1020
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:31,160
early and it's days of
development.

1021
01:05:32,080 --> 01:05:38,080
It's they've been through two or
three proper cycles as part of

1022
01:05:38,080 --> 01:05:45,800
the electric battery revolution.
So it's going to take some more

1023
01:05:45,800 --> 01:05:50,360
time, some more cycles to level
out and and that makes it even

1024
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:53,880
harder when you demand profile
is changing so dramatically year

1025
01:05:53,880 --> 01:06:00,240
on year.
But if you can invest in hugely

1026
01:06:00,240 --> 01:06:07,280
quality early stage assets, then
I think that's the best way to

1027
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,720
squeeze the lemon when it does,
when it does grow.

1028
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:15,960
You also mentioned coal, which
I'm quite curious about, sort of

1029
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:21,720
a much more established market
than than lithium, but also the,

1030
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:24,640
the commonality of trading into
the, the cost curve and these

1031
01:06:24,640 --> 01:06:27,080
sorts of things.
Have the the lessons you've

1032
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:29,800
learnt in the past couple of
years guided you to a couple of

1033
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:31,720
names or just watching it from
the sidelines for now?

1034
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,320
Yeah, we've definitely learnt
some lessons, good and bad.

1035
01:06:39,080 --> 01:06:42,120
What to quality is what we've
done really yes, you know and

1036
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:43,920
going up the curve to to a
Glencore.

1037
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:46,360
Try try and diversify it if you
can.

1038
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,960
It's certainly as we've seen in
previous up cycles, it's got a

1039
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:55,640
lot of, a lot of value there to
be had.

1040
01:06:56,360 --> 01:06:59,800
I think we underestimated a
little bit how long the down

1041
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:03,360
cycle would would be.
And I think it's obviously a bit

1042
01:07:03,360 --> 01:07:09,720
like lithium, a function of how
much money flowed into the

1043
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:15,560
market when it was booming and
standard cyclical nature of

1044
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:19,960
commodities, too much money
supply demand.

1045
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:24,920
But hopefully, fingers crossed,
we're at the bottom of this next

1046
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:27,880
cycle.
Hopefully it doesn't take too

1047
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:31,600
much longer to play out.
I've I've, I can't let you guys

1048
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:35,720
leave without a an overrated,
underrated segment.

1049
01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:41,640
Yeah, so I'll, I'll give you a,
a I'll I'll frame a theme and.

1050
01:07:41,640 --> 01:07:44,240
This will be funny if we say the
same thing or not.

1051
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:48,840
You're allowed to be different.
So first one for me is private

1052
01:07:48,840 --> 01:07:52,520
capital replacing public equity
in junior mining.

1053
01:07:54,080 --> 01:07:58,760
I've read it or underrated.
Private capital replacing

1054
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,000
private.
Equity, Public equity.

1055
01:08:01,000 --> 01:08:04,280
Public equity, yeah.
So you know, juniors explorecos

1056
01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:08,280
staying private longer.
I'd say it's underrated.

1057
01:08:09,160 --> 01:08:10,520
Yeah, I think underrated as
well.

1058
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:15,200
Yeah.
I think cost of capital goes up

1059
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:20,319
a little bit when you go
private, go public and your

1060
01:08:20,319 --> 01:08:24,520
flexibility, the way you're able
to execute on objectives, yeah.

1061
01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:26,800
Yeah.
When you're private, you rarely

1062
01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:29,680
raise the next lot of capital at
a lower share price.

1063
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,760
No, that's right.
Yeah, exactly.

1064
01:08:31,800 --> 01:08:34,120
So controlling that cost of
capital is important.

1065
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:37,840
Public disclosure is just, it's
extremely onerous.

1066
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:40,040
You don't need to do it.
Absolutely don't do it.

1067
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:45,240
I guess if you have the luxury
of not having to go to public

1068
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:47,439
markets, that's that's, that's
ideal.

1069
01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:51,160
Reliable form of of capital to
progress a project.

1070
01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:52,600
Yes.
It's everything, right?

1071
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:57,960
But as a function of a fund
manager, you have to try and you

1072
01:08:57,960 --> 01:09:01,680
know for our mandate meet
certain liquidity objectives.

1073
01:09:01,680 --> 01:09:07,880
So is it something we would look
at going all private?

1074
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:12,160
Probably not.
But therein lies the opportunity

1075
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:14,319
for someone that doesn't need
that sort of money.

1076
01:09:15,479 --> 01:09:18,880
How about activism in the
resources space?

1077
01:09:18,880 --> 01:09:22,960
Investor Activism.
Underrated.

1078
01:09:23,399 --> 01:09:25,760
Yeah, I think it's underrated.
I think I implore it.

1079
01:09:26,359 --> 01:09:31,120
There should be a spotlight on
the people driving the the ships

1080
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:34,760
and making the decisions and,
you know, earning good money if

1081
01:09:34,760 --> 01:09:36,560
if they do a good job,
hopefully.

1082
01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:38,520
Yeah.
This probably fits into the last

1083
01:09:38,520 --> 01:09:45,240
question about transparency in
use of capital, I guess, in

1084
01:09:45,399 --> 01:09:49,680
private versus public vehicles.
But in public, it's all on show

1085
01:09:49,680 --> 01:09:53,680
and your governance should
reflect that, absolutely.

1086
01:09:54,320 --> 01:09:56,720
We'll keep an eager eye out for
Norfolk in that space.

1087
01:09:57,840 --> 01:09:59,280
Wouldn't you call us activist
just yet?

1088
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:01,680
Yeah, probably not big enough to
be the activist.

1089
01:10:02,200 --> 01:10:04,080
What about the project generator
model?

1090
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:11,120
Underrated.
I'll say underrated, yeah.

1091
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:14,920
Much more prevalent in Canada
than than Australia, but we do

1092
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:18,400
have our examples here.
And yeah, maybe rising in

1093
01:10:18,400 --> 01:10:21,520
popularity.
Would you have a back one or do

1094
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:24,360
you think it it's just the time
horizon uncertainty to

1095
01:10:24,880 --> 01:10:25,880
discoveries?
Maybe not.

1096
01:10:26,600 --> 01:10:31,880
I think it depends on the team.
Yeah, I, I, yeah, I think I, I

1097
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:37,040
would, I would back one and we,
we kind of have just backed one

1098
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:40,000
without that's not the main
reason we backed it.

1099
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:42,000
But yeah, I think when there's
some, you know, really good

1100
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:46,120
operators in a specific part of
the world, this one's in North

1101
01:10:46,120 --> 01:10:50,160
America, not Canada, you can
generate significant value if

1102
01:10:50,160 --> 01:10:52,800
you've, especially if you've got
an existing project and then

1103
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:54,760
it's just a nice to have like
it's a second prong.

1104
01:10:56,160 --> 01:10:57,680
Yeah, I think you can generate
value for sure.

1105
01:10:58,400 --> 01:11:02,360
Yeah, yeah.
Government price flaws, slash

1106
01:11:02,360 --> 01:11:05,600
stockpiles or any form of
government's getting busy in the

1107
01:11:05,800 --> 01:11:07,640
resources space.
Underrated.

1108
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:10,040
Yeah, underrated, absolutely.
I think it's, I think we're

1109
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:12,680
going to see a lot more of it.
Hopefully we see some in the

1110
01:11:12,680 --> 01:11:14,040
tungsten space soon.
It's.

1111
01:11:15,080 --> 01:11:17,240
A really only logical solution
to bodificate.

1112
01:11:17,320 --> 01:11:19,520
From China so Monty helping you
out already so.

1113
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:21,320
Yeah, I know.
But we, we, we don't have a

1114
01:11:21,480 --> 01:11:25,960
government buying it yet.
So I think that should be that

1115
01:11:25,960 --> 01:11:28,600
that would be an absolute no
brainer for the US government to

1116
01:11:28,600 --> 01:11:33,360
stockpile from tungsten or do a,
you know, do a floor price

1117
01:11:33,400 --> 01:11:35,680
contract with El Monte would be
I think quite.

1118
01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:37,040
Appropriate would be very
appreciated.

1119
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:39,160
We'll have a few calls, see what
we can do.

1120
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:40,560
Are we going to get one in
Vanadium?

1121
01:11:42,280 --> 01:11:43,240
Underrated.
Overrated.

1122
01:11:43,560 --> 01:11:45,880
No, this is just I'm, I'm, I'm
just ripping off the the.

1123
01:11:46,760 --> 01:11:48,480
Price for the.
Yeah, I'm trying to predict the

1124
01:11:48,480 --> 01:11:50,920
next price for yeah.
I mean that would that would be

1125
01:11:50,920 --> 01:11:53,240
nice as well.
Very rarest kind of makes sense,

1126
01:11:53,240 --> 01:11:57,400
I guess, you know, follow suit.
There's obviously been a bit of

1127
01:11:57,400 --> 01:11:59,840
chatter around the Australian
government going down that path

1128
01:11:59,840 --> 01:12:03,920
or not yet to be seen, but I
think it makes sense for those,

1129
01:12:04,000 --> 01:12:06,120
you know, super important
commodities that we've already

1130
01:12:06,120 --> 01:12:09,000
discussed.
How do you, how do you, how do

1131
01:12:09,000 --> 01:12:13,560
you shore up western supply
while allowing markets and

1132
01:12:13,560 --> 01:12:18,000
enterprise to have surety on, on
building those projects?

1133
01:12:20,240 --> 01:12:27,400
And and that is, I think gonna
be a conversation that investors

1134
01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:30,160
and and governments will need to
have for for quite a while from

1135
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:31,680
here.
I think the problem has been

1136
01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:35,560
that the you, the China, has
gotten so far ahead of the

1137
01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:38,200
Western world in developing
these rare earth and other

1138
01:12:38,600 --> 01:12:42,280
critical mineral projects that
the Western nations simply have

1139
01:12:42,280 --> 01:12:44,400
to step in now and do what
they've been doing for the last

1140
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:48,240
10-15 years because we won't
catch up organically.

1141
01:12:48,480 --> 01:12:49,880
There needs to be some
intervention.

1142
01:12:50,200 --> 01:12:53,240
So I think that's why it's so
underrated and needs to happen.

1143
01:12:53,640 --> 01:12:56,320
Feels like a completely
different playing field.

1144
01:12:56,680 --> 01:12:57,880
Yeah.
Absolutely it is.

1145
01:12:58,160 --> 01:13:00,400
It's been a different playing
field for quite a while.

1146
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:02,400
Yeah, that's probably one of
your biggest takeaways.

1147
01:13:02,400 --> 01:13:06,520
When you went over there was
just how far ahead they are on

1148
01:13:07,160 --> 01:13:10,920
on on planning execution,
controlling narrative,

1149
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:12,720
controlling pricing
environments.

1150
01:13:14,160 --> 01:13:16,520
They are very well thought
through.

1151
01:13:16,640 --> 01:13:18,040
Yeah, they don't get enough
credit.

1152
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:21,360
They've done just a tremendous
job of building their economy

1153
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:25,120
and building their supply chains
and fully integrating and really

1154
01:13:25,120 --> 01:13:28,920
shutting, shutting themselves
off from needing almost anything

1155
01:13:28,920 --> 01:13:31,640
from the rest of the world.
And things like Made in

1156
01:13:31,640 --> 01:13:35,280
Australia and those sort of
policies, great on paper.

1157
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:39,200
I think this is kind of the
opportunity for governments like

1158
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:43,240
Australia to step up and say
we'll put our money where our

1159
01:13:43,240 --> 01:13:46,560
mouth is and start following
through with some of these

1160
01:13:46,560 --> 01:13:49,680
policies as it applies to
resources.

1161
01:13:50,640 --> 01:13:54,320
You sort of think of that as
like a 10 year, 20 year type

1162
01:13:54,320 --> 01:13:56,560
theme.
Probably, I mean some of the

1163
01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:04,760
some of the targets for, you
know, the increase in 5% of GDP

1164
01:14:04,760 --> 01:14:09,720
on defense spending that that
sort of starts to come to

1165
01:14:09,720 --> 01:14:13,760
fruition in about 10 years time.
So there'll be a lot of

1166
01:14:13,760 --> 01:14:17,440
planning, a lot of initial
investment I guess in trying to

1167
01:14:17,440 --> 01:14:21,080
get projects up to make that
defense spend cap.

1168
01:14:22,840 --> 01:14:24,400
But yeah, it's not a short term
thing.

1169
01:14:24,400 --> 01:14:27,880
You can't just roll out those
sort of things overnight, but it

1170
01:14:27,880 --> 01:14:29,320
doesn't mean you can't start
doing it.

1171
01:14:31,040 --> 01:14:32,920
Overrated, underrated broker
research.

1172
01:14:35,840 --> 01:14:37,320
Underrated.
Love the brokers.

1173
01:14:39,800 --> 01:14:43,520
Underrated if you know what to
look for and put a dose of

1174
01:14:43,960 --> 01:14:46,000
realism on some of it.
Yeah, yeah.

1175
01:14:46,000 --> 01:14:50,520
I think they're a good guide
that you can well that Chris can

1176
01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:59,600
use to normalise forecasts and
information numbers.

1177
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:03,400
A lot of them do a huge amount
of incredible work and they do

1178
01:15:04,840 --> 01:15:06,760
site visits that you can't go on
and things like that.

1179
01:15:06,760 --> 01:15:09,480
So that's highly valuable to
what we do, absolutely.

1180
01:15:09,480 --> 01:15:10,920
Would you want to rely on them
solely?

1181
01:15:10,920 --> 01:15:15,680
Probably not.
Overrated underrated passive

1182
01:15:16,400 --> 01:15:20,960
flows ATF flows for the moving
mining stocks specifically

1183
01:15:20,960 --> 01:15:23,000
through the through the
evolutions.

1184
01:15:26,800 --> 01:15:30,280
I think pretty overrated to be
honest.

1185
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:35,520
I think it will probably become
more and more important going

1186
01:15:35,520 --> 01:15:38,480
forward as the money pools
continue to flow.

1187
01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:43,560
But I'm, I guess I'm thinking
more specifically around index

1188
01:15:43,560 --> 01:15:46,320
changes and things like that.
And quite often the moves are

1189
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:48,920
not as profound as you expect
them to be.

1190
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:51,240
I think there's a lot of front
running involved with them.

1191
01:15:51,400 --> 01:15:55,080
And then on the flip side,
there's also conversely where

1192
01:15:55,440 --> 01:15:58,400
indexes change and they come
out, you know, the flows come

1193
01:15:58,400 --> 01:16:02,680
out and the ones that front run
front run it out.

1194
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:06,600
So totally, it's a bit of give
and take and I think it's a bit

1195
01:16:06,600 --> 01:16:10,000
overrated as well.
Yeah, last one from me.

1196
01:16:10,560 --> 01:16:13,720
Just the valuations of uranium
developers and producers.

1197
01:16:13,760 --> 01:16:14,880
Overrated.
Underrated.

1198
01:16:16,800 --> 01:16:18,480
As in overrated?
Expensive.

1199
01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:23,960
Yeah, probably overrated here.
Yeah, overrated.

1200
01:16:24,480 --> 01:16:29,560
Yeah, if a difficult, very
difficult part of the market to

1201
01:16:30,440 --> 01:16:32,560
to find value in our in our in
our mind.

1202
01:16:34,040 --> 01:16:40,600
I think there's a lot of a lack
of transparency.

1203
01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:44,680
It's very opaque, the pricing
and contracting environment for

1204
01:16:44,680 --> 01:16:50,280
a lot of these uranium miners.
So it's hard for us to get a

1205
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:55,600
feel on on value and like real
value developers, yes, it's it's

1206
01:16:55,600 --> 01:17:01,080
a bit easier, but there's a lot
of corporate stuff that goes in

1207
01:17:01,080 --> 01:17:07,880
behind these producing uranium
assets which which we don't see

1208
01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:10,680
it and sometimes it comes to
light.

1209
01:17:10,960 --> 01:17:13,720
You might have seen that
recently with a few different

1210
01:17:13,920 --> 01:17:16,800
names having to disclose their
contract books.

1211
01:17:19,440 --> 01:17:25,840
So it is difficult to find a
clear value in the producers.

1212
01:17:26,360 --> 01:17:29,400
Gents, we made, we, we wrapped
up the party and then we just

1213
01:17:29,560 --> 01:17:32,760
started remembering.
We got a beer.

1214
01:17:32,760 --> 01:17:36,680
I feel like it was December
December last year, but it could

1215
01:17:36,680 --> 01:17:37,360
have been.
November.

1216
01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:39,680
December.
Could be November, but we we

1217
01:17:39,720 --> 01:17:43,480
tried to predict.
We we all predicted what's going

1218
01:17:43,480 --> 01:17:46,160
to be the best performing stock
in 12 months time, the worst

1219
01:17:46,520 --> 01:17:49,240
performing stock Yep, in 12
months time and min.

1220
01:17:49,280 --> 01:17:50,960
Race price.
And then we tried to predict

1221
01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:52,760
min.
Race share price fresh my memory

1222
01:17:52,800 --> 01:17:53,640
on all this.
OK.

1223
01:17:53,640 --> 01:17:58,920
Pete, you picked to be up the
most CCE commerce.

1224
01:17:58,920 --> 01:18:01,760
Commerce and ashram, Yep.
What would trade, I guess that

1225
01:18:02,240 --> 01:18:04,040
Canada validates our long only
theory.

1226
01:18:04,440 --> 01:18:06,760
Yeah, yeah.
Trading in Canada, that's a good

1227
01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:08,040
question.
I'm not sure what it was trading

1228
01:18:08,040 --> 01:18:09,120
at at the time.
Yeah.

1229
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:14,680
So we we made these bets on the
14th of November last year, 14th

1230
01:18:14,840 --> 01:18:16,720
of November.
So this was a bit over a beer

1231
01:18:16,720 --> 01:18:23,600
and your short was Pantoro.
That's done exceedingly.

1232
01:18:23,640 --> 01:18:26,120
All right.
Probably lost.

1233
01:18:27,560 --> 01:18:33,560
Your min res pick 65 bucks now
we've still got two months.

1234
01:18:33,640 --> 01:18:34,960
Still got two months.
Yeah, months.

1235
01:18:35,360 --> 01:18:40,280
All right, better get buying.
Chris MTM great pick that was

1236
01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:42,480
That was a a few months before
it started running.

1237
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:44,240
Yeah, Dalla pick.
Yeah.

1238
01:18:44,320 --> 01:18:47,400
So this is the, you know, this
is down that critical minerals

1239
01:18:47,400 --> 01:18:48,960
path.
It's in the name.

1240
01:18:49,200 --> 01:18:52,200
Yeah, well, Metallium now, yeah.
Was in the name.

1241
01:18:52,280 --> 01:18:55,000
Yeah, flash drill.
Yeah, the flash drill technology

1242
01:18:55,160 --> 01:18:57,520
professor tour out of Ross
University.

1243
01:18:58,480 --> 01:19:02,480
It's extraction of rare earths
using non traditional mains is

1244
01:19:02,480 --> 01:19:04,040
one of the key pillars of their
business.

1245
01:19:04,040 --> 01:19:05,680
The other one's recycling and
some other things.

1246
01:19:05,680 --> 01:19:09,160
But they've since moved, you
know, they've onshored into the

1247
01:19:09,360 --> 01:19:11,440
US They've got one site, they're
looking at others.

1248
01:19:12,160 --> 01:19:13,280
An interesting story.
Yeah.

1249
01:19:13,520 --> 01:19:15,680
And was he short and quite
interesting?

1250
01:19:15,680 --> 01:19:18,960
You're short is IPX now?
Yeah, I think he's goes to is a

1251
01:19:18,960 --> 01:19:21,040
a bit.
Of a pairs yeah tried to pairs

1252
01:19:21,040 --> 01:19:22,080
trade that one he's.
Real.

1253
01:19:22,080 --> 01:19:22,800
Yeah.
Well done.

1254
01:19:24,640 --> 01:19:27,480
And your min res price 45 bucks
what's?

1255
01:19:27,520 --> 01:19:31,560
So now 35 or so.
Yeah. 37 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

1256
01:19:31,960 --> 01:19:35,920
Trev Yeah.
YRL as your highest pick.

1257
01:19:35,920 --> 01:19:36,480
Yeah.
Oh, that.

1258
01:19:36,560 --> 01:19:39,120
Didn't pay me out.
Well, yeah, I think some

1259
01:19:39,120 --> 01:19:40,600
drilling results came out maybe
a week.

1260
01:19:40,600 --> 01:19:41,720
Ago I might not come in the
stock.

1261
01:19:43,240 --> 01:19:46,480
Your your short was good.
I think we can call it 100% on

1262
01:19:46,480 --> 01:19:48,360
this.
Oh no, Javoir.

1263
01:19:48,360 --> 01:19:51,320
That's right it.
Took 12 days of of 2025 before

1264
01:19:51,320 --> 01:19:53,000
that, yeah, it went to zero, so
yeah.

1265
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:54,800
It was good, very well done.
Yeah.

1266
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:56,760
It knew something we didn't.
No, I didn't.

1267
01:19:57,160 --> 01:19:58,960
I knew it's debt was
unrepayable.

1268
01:19:58,960 --> 01:20:01,320
There we go.
Put it that key learnings that.

1269
01:20:01,960 --> 01:20:04,640
Henry's prediction was 15 bucks,
so it touched that on the way

1270
01:20:04,640 --> 01:20:07,360
now.
I think I was a, I went fast and

1271
01:20:07,920 --> 01:20:10,120
I might be very wrong by the end
of the year, but was, you know,

1272
01:20:10,560 --> 01:20:15,000
anyway, we'll see.
I I picked Tabani to be the

1273
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:17,200
winner.
Yeah, yeah, I can't because

1274
01:20:17,240 --> 01:20:18,640
that's that's had a volatile
run.

1275
01:20:18,640 --> 01:20:21,160
I can't.
Remember 30 odd cents 3233 I

1276
01:20:21,160 --> 01:20:22,200
think.
Yeah.

1277
01:20:22,280 --> 01:20:26,520
And it traded up.
So this would have been a in and

1278
01:20:26,520 --> 01:20:29,480
around the time Resolute had all
their drums, I think a little

1279
01:20:29,480 --> 01:20:31,880
bit after so.
Oh, so you'd be killing it maybe

1280
01:20:31,880 --> 01:20:34,400
up three times then?
I have to have to double check

1281
01:20:34,440 --> 01:20:37,400
and on the short side boss.
Wow, well done.

1282
01:20:37,400 --> 01:20:38,200
That's.
That's a good one.

1283
01:20:39,480 --> 01:20:42,200
Yeah, and men's, Men's 40 bucks.
Oh.

1284
01:20:42,920 --> 01:20:44,240
Hold.
On Jade, I think, I think you're

1285
01:20:44,240 --> 01:20:46,800
tick, tick, tick, yeah.
This has been a volatile

1286
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:50,000
evolution. 2.
Two months to go, any anything's

1287
01:20:50,000 --> 01:20:51,800
still, it's all still to pay
for.

1288
01:20:51,960 --> 01:20:53,920
So we're choosing, we're
choosing our next one.

1289
01:20:54,760 --> 01:20:57,960
Yeah, I think paid CCA's do a
lot lot to run that's.

1290
01:20:58,080 --> 01:20:59,120
How I'll do that?
Handicapped.

1291
01:20:59,120 --> 01:21:00,840
Yeah.
Yeah, that's got strong tailings

1292
01:21:00,840 --> 01:21:03,000
I think for the.
Last, I'll do that and that when

1293
01:21:03,000 --> 01:21:08,560
I say CCA, it's the reverse
takeover by Montreal of Commerce

1294
01:21:08,560 --> 01:21:12,880
that'll come to the ASX
relatively soon in the next

1295
01:21:12,880 --> 01:21:14,680
month or so.
Yeah, guys, this has been

1296
01:21:14,840 --> 01:21:16,640
awesome.
I appreciate you making your

1297
01:21:16,640 --> 01:21:19,800
podcast debut with us and
sharing your philosophy, how you

1298
01:21:19,800 --> 01:21:22,080
think about the world, how
you've sort of set up the fund

1299
01:21:22,640 --> 01:21:23,880
and everything that kind of
comes with it.

1300
01:21:23,880 --> 01:21:26,040
So yeah, can't thank you enough.
No worries.

1301
01:21:26,080 --> 01:21:27,640
Pleasure guys here.
Thanks for having.

1302
01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:30,200
Us awesome mate massive, massive
thank you to the Norfolk guys

1303
01:21:30,200 --> 01:21:33,280
for coming and joining us and
also a huge thank you to our

1304
01:21:33,280 --> 01:21:37,120
fantastic partners at Sandvik
grounds report I mark get your

1305
01:21:37,120 --> 01:21:40,000
tickets for the conference and
last but not least focus check

1306
01:21:40,000 --> 01:21:43,120
out the platform brought to you
by market tech hoodoo hoodoo.

1307
01:21:44,320 --> 01:21:47,160
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

1308
01:21:47,520 --> 01:21:49,600
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

1309
01:21:49,600 --> 01:21:52,320
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to write out a

1310
01:21:52,320 --> 01:21:52,800
disclaimer.