The Copper Sleeper that Nobody’s Watching (Anthony Kavanagh)
Today’s episode is a bit different.
Joining us is show favourite Anthony Kavangh, to share his view on a specific stock… Havilah.
Kav has been on a long and winding road as an investor in the South Australian copper hopeful and today he shares the whole story.
As a fund manager whose performance speaks for itself, we’re intrigued to learn about his thought process as well as the entertaining story that he tells.
Plus, we get his take on the big question: Where does it go from here.
Stocks mentioned: HAV, COI, DVP, EQU, AZY
This was recorded on 26.11.2025.
……………
TIMESTAMPS
(0:00) Intro & Guest Welcome
(4:10) The HAV Story Begins
(6:50) Early Impressions & First Encounters
(10:00) The Oz Minerals Deal
(13:00) BHP Takeover & Asset Uncertainty
(16:30) Investment Approaches & Management
(20:00) The Sandfire Deal Explained
(24:00) Share Registry & Bob Johnson
(27:00) South Australia Copper Potential
(30:00) Deal Valuation & Market Reaction
(34:00) Risks & Technical Challenges
(37:00) Sizing the Investment
(40:10) Final Thoughts(43:14) What's the next HAV?
……………
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DISCLAIMER
All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. Please ensure you read our full disclaimer.
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Travis Ricciardo We've got a bit
of a different episode today,
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00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,080
don't we?
It is, it is a bit different.
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00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:08,680
We've we've coached our good
friend Anthony Cavanagh, Cav as
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00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,880
as we call him of, of Chester.
I think he runs the Chester
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Opportunities Fund 1 of Cavs.
You know, things he's been
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talking about a fair bit.
In fact, he, he alluded to this
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stock and this company, this
opportunity when we when we
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00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:28,520
spoke to him a year ago when we
did our like Fundy predictions.
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This is a a, you know, a copper
junior that Cav he's he's had a
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long history with.
We're going to peel that out.
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Why it's interesting to him, why
he's sort of, you know, why he
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thinks there's a special
situation on hand right now and
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probably just got to get out of
the way.
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Disclaimers upfront, mate.
We own stock in this company,
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which is have all the resources.
Ding, Ding, Ding.
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We're conflicted.
Ignore any of our perspectives
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from that angle, or just just
take that grain of salt.
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But I I think it's super
entertaining for a number of
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reasons.
Kev has wanted to do this
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episode for a long time.
It's a fascinating company.
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As he explains in the whole
story, he got involved quite
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some time ago, but he's just
that's an interesting thinker to
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understand and hear from him.
How we try to sort of create
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value here is both entertaining
and insightful.
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And for that reason, I'm pretty
keen to to share this story on
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the back of obviously the deal
with Sandfire that's come out.
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Yeah, mate, I I totally agree.
Hopefully money mind as you get
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some value.
We invite a bit of feedback on
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this one.
If you've got a a contrary
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perspective to us and Cav, drop
a comment, let us know.
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Let us know why why our view
might be with the wrong view.
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I'm sure it'll come back one way
or another.
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Yeah mate, we've got a new
partner as well, Switch
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Technologies.
I'm very excited to share this.
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Yeah.
Tell me about switch mate.
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Mate Switch, an engineering
company based right in the heart
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of Perth.
They've got 5000 square meters
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in the middle of North Bridge.
There's an old Toyota facility
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there and what they do is really
cool. 25 engineers working in
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the company and they are a bunch
of problem solvers mate.
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So if you are running a process
plant, you're at a mining
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company in one form or another,
and you've got problems you want
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solved, which is the team you
need to get in in touch with.
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So they turn ideas into.
Into solutions, that's it.
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They execute the ideas and I'm
sure there's people at mining
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sites right now that have a
bunch of ideas and they just
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don't have the bandwidth to
execute on them.
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So Switch are the team you need
to get in touch with.
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They've got Mike's details in
the show notes which you can
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check out, but they've also got
a bunch of solutions that
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they've put into the market out
there right now.
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So they had this Wicked project
with Pilbara Minerals.
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They retrofit a CAT78550 ton
dump truck, put this wicked
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hybrid system in there.
So a bunch of.
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Really existing mechanical yeah
truck with with a hybrid hybrid
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retrofits it's.
Really.
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What happening here in Perth
mate?
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Cost savings off the back of it.
And that is that is a big part
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of the message here, mate.
These are cutting edge kind of
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tech where there's a commercial
business case and it saves
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dollar per ton because this is
their expertise, their
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capability.
JD, I thought here's here's
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here's my pitch to switch.
This is to you, Mark.
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I've got some gears myself on
how you might be able to save
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some dollars per ton in your
processing facilities.
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First one, I call this one the
stop running it till it explodes
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alert system.
So you have a little sensor box
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and it warns you when a pump or
a gearbox, it's about to become
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a crime scene instead of being
run proudly into the ground
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because it survives, survived
the last shift.
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That sounds like a problem
Switch can help you with.
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Second one, I don't know if this
ones better.
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I call it the stop over grinding
everything meal whisperer.
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So it's just just a control
overlay system that stops the
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meal from, you know, turning
decent 200 Micron feet into baby
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powder.
Not bad, not bad, I'm sure.
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I'm sure the folks out there at
the mine sites have hundreds of
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these problems.
They're probably better problems
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than economic.
They're probably very real world
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problems mate, and it's a good
thing we've got people like
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Switch solving these problems
for us.
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If you've got an idea, just
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mike@switchtechnologies.com.
We will come up with well, that
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will come up with the solution
for your problems to save you
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money.
Go switch.
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Go switch.
All right, let's RIP in.
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We've got a hell of a story to
tell.
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How do we, I don't know how to
intro this story other than to
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say, Kev, through knowing you've
lured us into the appeal of a
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very intriguing South Australian
undeveloped copper stock called
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Havila HIV.
We are in stock in this.
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We are conflicted.
Anything that comes out of here,
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like just assume that that, you
know, we have every incentive
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for the for, for an outcome
higher than where the share
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price is today.
So just count everything we're
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going to say from that
perspective.
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But we bought shares on market
with our own money.
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So hopefully there's some
alignment on that front.
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I don't even know where to begin
here mate, because.
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I actually did check my notes
and I'm like, where did it begin
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for me?
Like it was kind of one of those
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stories as a S Australian and
someone who's caught up in the,
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I guess the man year of copper
and everyone trying to find a
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copper asset to develop.
You kind of look at everything
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that's available, right?
And it turns out the first I
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guess instance that I had with
the company was actually April
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2022.
And it was in kind of the
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madness of it was one of the
lockdowns in Melbourne where a
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lot of people couldn't actually
get out of the state.
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And I was in Adelaide at the
time with my family and UBS had
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organised a, a visit to some
Adelaide companies.
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A lot of them were at the time
you'd say subscale and semi
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economic.
But amongst it, you know, when I
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saw I was minerals and we saw an
aspirin, a few of the other
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larger plays, but in the mix was
Havilah.
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And so at the time it was like a
$60 million company.
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And I remember going out there
and seeing all the optionality
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of the assets and just turning
to a few of the guys going.
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That was really interesting.
But like, it's a $60 million
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company.
Like, what the hell is going on
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here?
And as a family member of mine
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who'd previously mentioned it to
me and I called them up and I'm
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like, what?
What were you telling me about?
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Haven't they like, oh, yeah,
it's my only PA position and I
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think you should really take a
look at it.
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I'm like, oh, look, it's
probably too small for us,
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really subscale.
And on that same day, we saw Oz
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Minerals later in the Arvo.
And Oz Minerals was talking
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about how they've done these
deep dives and all the copper
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assets literally globally, not
just in Australia.
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And I couldn't help but think to
myself, maybe there's something
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in it.
Like the conversation we'd had
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from Havilah needing a big
capital partner to help develop
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that asset to Oz Minerals
needing a ready to develop
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copper asset that literally had
done all the exploration work,
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they just needed to get into
production.
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I was kind of like, at the time,
it was one of those thoughts you
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never really do anything about.
It's just like, geez, there's
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something probably there, but
nothing's going to happen.
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And I can't remember when
exactly the deal got
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consummated, but it would have
been say six months later down
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the track that OZ Minerals ended
up kind of putting an offer on
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to that asset in Kakaru.
Yeah, there's an option, an
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option agreement that they they
entered there from memory.
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Yeah, 100%.
And at the time I was just like,
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wow, like one of those instances
where just fortuitously you saw
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the two companies in the same
day, both South Australian
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companies.
You thought maybe you'd be great
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synergies to see those two
together, one needing capital,
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one with capital, one wanting a
growth project, 1 needy
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desperately a growth partner.
And then they come together and
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you're like, oh, wow, we were
there.
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And I'll send a message to some
of the guys that are on the same
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site because they're going.
Isn't that neat that that kind
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00:07:05,280 --> 00:07:08,360
of happened together and kind of
nothing came of it at the time.
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00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,360
And just like, yeah.
And I mean, I think at the time
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it was probably around a $400
million deal.
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00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:14,800
I know there was different
structures to it.
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00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:16,520
The, the recent Samphi deal has
been announced.
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00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,640
But lo and behold, obviously the
BHP as minerals takeover
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occurred and in the mix was kind
of like this small asset that
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probably didn't really fit
within the BHP portfolio,
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obviously didn't the way kind of
transpired.
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But at the time you're like,
what's going to happen with the
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with that asset?
And I started getting interested
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probably as the potential
investment thesis when I've got
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a feeling that Havilah had gone
to $0.27 at the time, which
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would have been, I'm going to
say about 100 million market cap
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00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:49,440
maybe.
No, no, probably even less.
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00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:54,160
When it was kind of almost, it
felt to me 5050 almost where the
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BHP was going to kind of
progress with that option that
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that OZ Minerals originally
entered into once they'd taken
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00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,200
over OZ Minerals.
But yeah, and then BHP kind of
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00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:09,280
reneged from that option.
And it kind of, I think I, I, I
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should pull up my chart, but
from memory, Haveler went down
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to like, I think 15 or 16 cents.
And everyone just thought
177
00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:18,920
there's, there's nothing here.
But all the information that I
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00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:21,600
was hearing from everyone
involved was that Haveler was
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00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,640
going to be, well, technically
it stood up.
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00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,000
It's just that it was too small
for BHP.
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00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:31,400
It had no technical flaws.
There was a lot of interest in
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the asset because of the grades,
because of the oxide layer that
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sat on the top, because the
location and because of some of
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00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,480
the exploration hits nearby that
almost, you know, became a
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00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,760
province play in have a look.
But it kind of nothing really
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00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:50,200
was ever going to happen at that
stage because it just was became
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00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,520
one of those small cap companies
that just didn't have the
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00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:57,160
capital and didn't have the
eyeballs And no offense the
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00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,840
management team, but I don't
think it was marketed
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00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,160
appropriately.
So we I'm having to have to go
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00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,120
whatever direction you want to
take those kind of comments,
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00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,120
but.
I remember, I remember you first
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00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,840
like mentioning it to us like,
yeah, must must have, must have
194
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,760
been subsequent to that option
lapsing that would that BHP let
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00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:15,600
lapse.
And I remember you saying like,
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00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,080
I still think it was a good
trade because you know, what was
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00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,800
the probability that BHP
exercised that option or not,
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00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:22,280
yada, yada.
And even if the stock failed,
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00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,640
like you still remember
articulating to ask that you
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00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:27,680
still thought that was a good, a
good, a good bet to have made.
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00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,320
Then another bit of context on
this.
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00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:36,520
I'd heard from someone that the,
the, the BHP, like, you know,
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00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,640
deal with Oz Minerals is part of
the rationale why OZ Minerals
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00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,640
signed the option agreement in
the 1st place.
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00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,920
Would have like maybe, maybe
that option agreement was
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00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,840
actually part of the defense,
you know, value negotiation
207
00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,440
stance from, from Oz minerals in
the 1st place.
208
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,640
Maybe they didn't actually
necessarily have the view to
209
00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:54,720
exercise that option, but at
least having that on the table
210
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,480
gave them some links to
negotiate an uplift in price
211
00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,880
from, from BHP, which ultimately
did come to fruition.
212
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,040
But you still zoom out and you
think there were two 22 copper
213
00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,760
projects in Osmond's backyard
that they could have chosen
214
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,920
from.
And, and the knock on both of
215
00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,160
them for the longest period of
time is that they haven't come
216
00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:14,240
knocking on, on either of them.
And that was that was Rex
217
00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,280
Mineral Hillside and that was
Havilus Kalkuru.
218
00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:23,160
And the one that they they did A
at least a paper deal on was was
219
00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,080
Havilus Kalkuru.
Yeah, I I definitely heard
220
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,600
something similar.
So in amongst my interest in
221
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,960
this company, I've spoken to
most of the key players I think
222
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,840
that have been involved with it.
Excellence Mineral staff
223
00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:41,200
members, other people associated
with the deal, geologists who've
224
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,280
who've looked at the data,
people within the South
225
00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,920
Australian government, all types
of different parties.
226
00:10:45,920 --> 00:10:49,200
Just to understand why this
asset still sat there as like
227
00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:52,280
this undeveloped asset that has
approximately .9% copper
228
00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:53,640
equivalent grade for another
pit.
229
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:56,600
It almost became a semi
obsession of mine to understand
230
00:10:56,600 --> 00:10:58,680
why this asset was still left
undeveloped.
231
00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,520
I think it might have those
conversations might have
232
00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:05,640
progressed one night over dinner
when there was another money in
233
00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,880
mine guest that kind of been on
your show when I was discussing
234
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,120
with him what his thoughts were
and potentially trying to
235
00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,920
progress a deal with them.
And, and I could, I could take
236
00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,560
you through a story, but I don't
necessarily want to reveal who
237
00:11:17,560 --> 00:11:19,800
that was in case they, they
don't necessarily want their
238
00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:24,920
name to be associated with it.
But certainly worked our own
239
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:28,040
angle to try and help the
management team, I guess
240
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,520
liberate value from this asset.
And there was probably, I would
241
00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:36,680
say at least three different
approaches so that for the
242
00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:42,240
management team of this company
between let's say 2020 like 2023
243
00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:47,640
and probably early to mid 2025
in different forms.
244
00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,120
And that's three from three from
you and and your group Kev, not
245
00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:54,800
to mention the the others that
we correct that have sort of,
246
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,440
you know, we've been inferred
that have approached the company
247
00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:01,160
with with alternate proposals.
Yeah, correct.
248
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,720
So I would say that I, I kind of
almost had a investment
249
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,840
consortium and I was inspired by
someone I'd saying that put
250
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,760
together a few deals of a
similar type of, I guess
251
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:14,600
methodology to what I was
thinking.
252
00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,080
And that like, if we could help
them, I guess build out their
253
00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,560
management team a little and
also kind of help capitalize the
254
00:12:20,560 --> 00:12:22,840
balance sheet.
It might give them a bit of a, a
255
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:27,000
stronger footing to go approach
the investment community with a
256
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:31,160
more institutional type of
company than than what they,
257
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,160
what they have.
I mean, they've, they've
258
00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,480
operated a pretty shoestring
budget as long as I've known
259
00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,040
them and gone by piece meal with
their own drill rig.
260
00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:41,960
And I kind of thought to myself,
well, if you can actually have
261
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:46,120
the money behind this company
and actually be well capitalized
262
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,360
with a pathway to getting a, a
fee completed with your own
263
00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,440
capital and you actually bulk
out the management team.
264
00:12:53,680 --> 00:12:55,040
You know, there was a few guys
at Oz Murals.
265
00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:57,240
I would have loved to say that
we were able to get Andrew Cole
266
00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,560
and convince him to come join
the, the board or the, OR the
267
00:12:59,560 --> 00:13:01,600
management team of Haveland,
which was my original, original
268
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:03,640
thought.
It wasn't to be, but there was a
269
00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:05,960
few guys in the mix.
And I don't, I don't want to say
270
00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,320
who they were in in case they
didn't want to be named either.
271
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,800
But we've spoken to a few guys
that we thought might have been
272
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:14,320
appropriate to, to help with the
management team there and, and
273
00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:16,840
thought what, what we had was a
good proposal, including maybe a
274
00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,440
corporate that might have given
some added credibility to the
275
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:25,200
project and to the asset.
And so, yeah, the most recent
276
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,520
approach, and I might have
alluded to it on your Christmas
277
00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:31,200
crackers special like I, I did
mention the fact that I was, I
278
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,800
was pretty interested in a
couple of cover plays and, and
279
00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,280
one of them was this potential
deal that we were, we were
280
00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:40,760
thinking about at the time.
But obviously that deal didn't
281
00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,200
eventuate.
And at the time I was kind of a
282
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,920
bit confused as to why
management would rebuff such a,
283
00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,280
such an approach.
I mean us potentially helping
284
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,480
them fund their balance sheet
and and take that project to A
285
00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,960
to a PFS level and also do some
further exploration drilling,
286
00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,840
which is kind of what the
Sapphire dealers look like.
287
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,320
So maybe they did learn
something from from our our
288
00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:05,240
approaches is kind of what the
Sapphire dealers kind of come
289
00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,960
out with.
But we were going to help them
290
00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,720
to basically develop that to a,
to a PFS sage themselves or to a
291
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,840
prefit Sage themselves.
Yeah.
292
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:21,560
So there's a lot to it, but what
I think is transpired ultimately
293
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,120
is that there's been a lot of
people that have have looked at
294
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,720
the asset and most of the
feedback I've had is that
295
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,960
there's been no technical flaws
with the asset, which is the
296
00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,720
same feedback that we've had
from our independent technical
297
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,880
experts that have looked at it
they've.
298
00:14:34,920 --> 00:14:38,240
Had an open data room for for a
very long time here, right?
299
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,280
Yeah, correct.
They have had an open data room
300
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:44,480
and there's been quite a number
of parties I believe that have
301
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,480
gone through that data room.
Our fund had personally been
302
00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:52,560
approached by two or three of
those parties asking for
303
00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:57,360
opinions, advice, asking for
someone that might actually be
304
00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,560
able to push management in a
certain direction.
305
00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,760
So I was certainly around
diggers expecting that maybe
306
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,160
something might occur of, of
this type of standing.
307
00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:09,720
That's not to say we're 100%
happy with the price or the way
308
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,680
the share price has reacted
since, but there's certainly
309
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,280
been a number of parties that
have expressed interest and done
310
00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,760
the detail as far as I'm aware
on, on the asset.
311
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:23,280
And I mean, my, my, my business
colleague and I, Rob, we, we
312
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,200
were in Perth 12 months ago, I'd
say now.
313
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,000
And I remember having the
meetings with most of the
314
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,400
companies in Perth.
You know, your, your standard
315
00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,320
companies and you know, your S
30 twos, your sand fires, your
316
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,800
even some of the gold names.
And the consistent feedback we
317
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,840
kept getting was that everyone
would have loved a developable,
318
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,560
developable copper asset in
Australia, right?
319
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,480
And it just was consistent over
and over again.
320
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,440
Oh, we just love a 50,000 tonne
per annum asset in Australia for
321
00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,040
copper.
And obviously, you know, Mac was
322
00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,960
there, but you know, that was
already developed and you, you
323
00:15:57,960 --> 00:15:59,880
had to pay a pretty full price
tag is what we're seeing in
324
00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,680
Harmony to acquire that asset.
But everyone just consistently
325
00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,640
said we'd love a developable
copper asset in Australia.
326
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,360
And I just kept thinking to
myself, well, has anyone
327
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,040
actually looked at this asset?
I mean, I know that there's been
328
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,000
some assets up in Queensland
that have transacted and
329
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,160
obviously the Rex Minerals deal.
But my understanding of Rex is
330
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,320
it's, you know, probably more
pristine pastoral land than than
331
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,720
what they have in Broken Hill.
The Gray is probably a little
332
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,920
bit lower and it's probably a
bit bit more complexity in the
333
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:31,000
build it at Rex's project and
there is a Kakaruso it was it
334
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:31,560
was that.
Coming.
335
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,760
Yeah, it was that Rex deal that
got JD and I very interested in
336
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,120
Havelock because the moment you
saw this, you know, yeah, $400
337
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,160
million deal for Rex, it was
like, well, if Oz thought that
338
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,040
Havelock was the better asset
then and and this company's got
339
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,800
a market cap, I think at the
time was like 6065 million bucks
340
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,400
or something like that.
We touched on the the winner one
341
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:51,040
as well, which you.
Know has got.
342
00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:53,280
Strengths to it, but.
You stole my winner Thunder,
343
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:54,960
right?
I think I was half the winner.
344
00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:56,760
Deal got announced.
I think I sent you a message
345
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:01,560
similar to the line of if we
know he's worth XXX, then Kakaru
346
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,760
is worth dot dot Don.
I think he used that and put out
347
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:06,720
a tweet at the time.
But at the time you were trying
348
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,079
to kind of, I guess yeah, he he
discrete the fact that like
349
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,880
paddler and Kakaru were the
companies and the and the copper
350
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:14,280
name that I was talking about in
my Christmas crack.
351
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,920
But anyway, yes, what will be
will be, but unless we see that
352
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,599
today, I mean, we could we could
delve into the deal because I'm
353
00:17:20,599 --> 00:17:23,359
I'm still sitting here going.
Before the deal, let's talk
354
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,319
about the the share registry of
have a lot like why has there
355
00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:29,920
been an impediment to to, I
don't know, do a deal like
356
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:31,600
what's the the shareholder
dynamic and the influence on the
357
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:32,840
company.
And it's not necessarily like a
358
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:34,960
bad one.
There's just a hold out on on
359
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,040
value, yeah.
Someone actually asked me about
360
00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,520
this today and they're like, oh,
what can you tell me about the
361
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,480
the havless share registry?
And I'm, I'm like, well, he's
362
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,680
pretty devoid of institutions.
I think there might be one or
363
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,320
two.
Some of them aren't necessarily
364
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,520
institutions in your black and
white scheme of institutions.
365
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,960
There's an interesting character
called Bob Johnson.
366
00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,640
And I, I don't think we've got
enough time to go through the
367
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,280
whole history of Bob, but Bob
was the founder of, of Haveler,
368
00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,040
also the founder of Chemical Map
Tech, the company.
369
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:08,800
The company.
Yeah.
370
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,560
And Bob has a lot of influence
within the company to the point
371
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:15,200
where I had presented to the
board previously some of my
372
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:19,160
thoughts on on Habler and Bob
was in the room at the time,
373
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,960
which I thought was interesting
because I think he he's
374
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,800
basically as a material
shareholder and an ex founder of
375
00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,160
the company, he still has a fair
bit of sway with the with the
376
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:31,520
current board and the management
team.
377
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:36,040
So sometimes to the point where
it's extremely influential.
378
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,960
So and he's his position on the
share register has been
379
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,400
questioned at times in terms of
how much stock he actually
380
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,400
controls.
So I think that's an interesting
381
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,800
aspect to the whole register.
And I think sometimes the
382
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:53,240
companies end up doing some
things that aren't necessarily
383
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,640
interested of all shareholders
might be the best interest of
384
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,920
Bob.
But when you're a founder of a
385
00:18:57,920 --> 00:18:59,680
business, sometimes that's what
happens.
386
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,640
We've seen plenty of examples of
founder LED businesses doing
387
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,680
some things this, this year in
particular that might not
388
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,240
necessarily be for all
shareholders, but I think he's
389
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,440
gotten really interesting past
Bob.
390
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,560
And I think I, I believe when I
presented to him and the board
391
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:19,000
that we shared some similar
philosophies and into what
392
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,000
Haveler and Kakaru could be for
particularly SA and, and the
393
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,320
industry at large.
I generally see kind of Kakaru
394
00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,480
and the province that they're in
has kind of almost been a
395
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,120
foundational asset for copper in
SA beyond obviously there's
396
00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:36,840
Olympic dam, prominent hill and
Carapatina, but I, I think SA
397
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,800
could be a lot more than that.
And, and this province, the
398
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,640
Carapatina province that sorry,
the Kunamara province that
399
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,120
they've got has the potential
for a couple of Kaparu look
400
00:19:48,120 --> 00:19:49,480
alikes.
I mean, we've seen some really
401
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,000
interesting hits that have been
there that just haven't been
402
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:53,600
followed up because they've had
the capital to drill.
403
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,840
And I'm really excited as to
what could actually transpire
404
00:19:56,840 --> 00:19:58,920
from some of the some of the
drill holes that might be
405
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:01,920
drilled with the expiration
money that Sanfi is throwing it
406
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,160
at the province.
So, yeah, like, I mean, there's
407
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:09,280
so much, so much to it, but I
think that, yeah, Bob.
408
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:13,400
Bob Johnson is very super.
Interesting to, to, to the the
409
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,520
credit of management, it's not
like they were like spending a
410
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,960
crazy amount of money and, and
diluting, diluting existing
411
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,000
shareholders a massive amount
along that way.
412
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,960
They've just been there's been a
holdout for a deal that has been
413
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,440
somewhat comparable to the one
that was was tabled by by Oz
414
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,440
Minerals.
And and now as of a couple weeks
415
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,480
ago, we've finally gotten a deal
that is comparable to the the
416
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,960
one that was tabled by Oz
Minerals in 2022, which you want
417
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,400
to run us through what what that
deal was Kev with sapphire?
418
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:44,640
Yeah.
I think, I think as to your
419
00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,080
point, some of the challenges
have been that like that deal
420
00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,000
being a couple of years old now,
that was at a copper price I'm
421
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,840
guessing now about 3 bucks, 50 a
pound and obviously we're about
422
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,400
5 bucks today.
And I'd say gold prices are
423
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,560
probably 1500 US and and we're
you know 4th around 4000 today.
424
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,480
So you've had a pretty strong
commodity price environment
425
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,720
since the OZ Minerals deal when
the deal implied was $400
426
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,920
million.
So I can understand management's
427
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,080
I guess anchoring to thinking
that maybe they should be
428
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,560
holding out for a $600 million
type of price tag.
429
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,920
But this probably comes to your
original point, Trev, when you
430
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:23,200
mentioned that some people had
suggested that HAVA was almost
431
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,280
used as a bargaining chip to BHP
where some people might have
432
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,400
suspected that maybe the price
tag that which OZ Minerals have
433
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,080
struck that that deal might have
been probably 100 or $200
434
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,680
million higher than.
So what might have otherwise
435
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,360
been the case if BHP wasn't
lurking there as a, as a
436
00:21:38,360 --> 00:21:40,520
takeover bidder that they were
trying to I guess push in One
437
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,840
Direction.
So that probably created some
438
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,120
issues for management and the
expectations from I guess
439
00:21:45,120 --> 00:21:49,560
shareholders and even themselves
going well, geez, $400 million
440
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,280
price tag with copper price and
gold price now higher, you know,
441
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:57,440
how can we how can we transact
on anything in you know, and
442
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,640
some of the price tags that I
suspect have been floating
443
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,480
around have been two $300
million, right.
444
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,160
So this this deal that they've
now got with, with Sandfire $105
445
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,440
million upfront script and cash.
So that 105 does swing around a
446
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,160
bit with a Sandfire share price
that literally gets them an
447
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,800
option to potentially acquire
another or 80% of the asset for
448
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:24,240
another $105 million.
So that in itself is I think
449
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,440
extremely interesting for have
the shareholders.
450
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,800
I think the price tag itself,
even though the headline looks
451
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,880
like it's $210 million for 80%,
you've got to remember they're
452
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:38,760
also funding Atfs which could be
anywhere $50 million, I think
453
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,240
could be a little bit higher
than that even they're they're
454
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,360
putting $30 million into
expiration into into ground that
455
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,000
otherwise wouldn't have seen
that that type of capital spent.
456
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,080
And then at the end of all of
that, people have said to me
457
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,280
that the biggest risk is that
Sam file might do all that work,
458
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,440
work and then walk away.
I mean, if they did spend that
459
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:02,000
money, let's call it 100 and
what, $185,000,000 including the
460
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:06,680
PFS costs and the expiration
costs and then walked away, I
461
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,240
mean, is that a risk to tablet?
Because then they would end up
462
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,760
with 100% of this asset, right,
That has had a fair bit of
463
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,040
interest beyond just sand, fire
and oz minerals.
464
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,360
That upfront is non is non
refundable.
465
00:23:17,360 --> 00:23:19,680
They get to keep.
Worth, yeah, 100% is binding,
466
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,360
yeah, and it's non refundable as
long as at the EGM the
467
00:23:23,360 --> 00:23:25,200
shareholders vote for it to
occur, right.
468
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,520
So yeah, that is itself
extremely interesting.
469
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:31,760
If then Sand Fire wants to
progress with the 80%, they then
470
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,440
need to spend another $105
million in cash and script,
471
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,280
which is in itself extremely
interesting.
472
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:42,200
So that then sets the price tag
85 plus 105, he goes, what
473
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,480
what's that 200 and a bit, let's
call it $300 million for round
474
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:48,400
numbers and that's for 80% of
the asset, right.
475
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,920
So then Havla are then free
carried on the remaining 20%,
476
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,680
almost like the Onslow situation
for the joint venture partners
477
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,120
to min res.
Now you'll need to pay back the
478
00:23:59,120 --> 00:24:01,120
capital.
So let's let's say that this is
479
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:06,280
AI don't know $1.2 billion
project 20% of that, you're then
480
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,920
going to be talking $250 million
that needs to be repaid from the
481
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,440
cash flow of the asset might
take two years to to repay it if
482
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,240
I'm I'm being optimistic and
generous, but.
483
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:15,960
Importantly, Havlet don't have
to fund that.
484
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,080
They don't have to.
Havlet don't have to fund right.
485
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,880
So you're talking about a
company that's, you know,
486
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,360
literally gotten by on a
shoestring.
487
00:24:22,360 --> 00:24:24,760
And you rightly pointed out that
I think management have done a
488
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:26,280
really good job in controlling
costs.
489
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,240
Like people can call this a
lifestyle company, but it's not
490
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,040
a lifestyle company that's going
been going out there and
491
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,160
spending a lot of money.
I think Chris has done really
492
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,880
well for the the budget that
they've had.
493
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,360
I just, I just think maybe at
times they could have been a bit
494
00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:39,920
more market facing and kind of
driven a lower cost of capital
495
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,640
for themselves and had the
ability with more capital.
496
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,880
But what will be, will be that's
in the past, but they've done
497
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:46,560
really well with the, with the
budgets they've got.
498
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:50,120
They're now in a position where
they're going to be fully funded
499
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,960
for that asset, don't have to
put any dollars in themselves,
500
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,000
gets to a point where they're
going to have 20% of it.
501
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,880
That's free carry, don't have to
put in any capital.
502
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,840
And you're getting a 20% stake
in what is originally going to
503
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,280
be probably a 40 to 50,000 tonne
per annum project, maybe could
504
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,120
get upscale to an 80,000 tonne
per annum project with a 20
505
00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:08,680
million tonne per annum mil.
I don't know.
506
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:13,120
But at the same time, in a small
cap copper space, you know, as
507
00:25:13,120 --> 00:25:15,240
well as I do, there aren't a
huge amount of ways to play it
508
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,120
like we're playing develop
because you know, we, we love
509
00:25:18,120 --> 00:25:20,720
everything that Bill's doing.
Maybe not so much the Woodlawn
510
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:22,360
ramp up today, but I think it's
going to come good.
511
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,480
But there's not, there's not
many ways to play copper, right.
512
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,080
And this is kind of almost to
look through it a stand fire
513
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,880
type of asset, a non operated
position in an asset that's
514
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:34,440
operated by Sand Fire in
Australia.
515
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:41,720
So yeah, I still think at these
prices, if the look through
516
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,240
before you even think about the
20% is $300 million for that 80%
517
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,840
stake.
And then that 20% stake you'd
518
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,680
assume would get transacted
close to MPV.
519
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,880
You know if you've got Japanese
or Korean money looking to buy
520
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,480
into that project when it gets
to an FID decision, I'd assume
521
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,720
it a transactor close to NPV.
Now our MPV are the project
522
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,000
using gold prices close to where
they are now and and long term
523
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,320
commodity prices in line with
consensus like a copper price of
524
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,320
4:50 to 5:00, we get $1.5
billion Australian and 10%
525
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,680
whack.
So that 200, so that 20% sorry
526
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,240
could be worth as much as $300
million in its own right, which
527
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,720
gets you to about a $600 million
type of valuation.
528
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,360
Now, this is a small cap company
that has always struggled for
529
00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:26,680
capital and, you know, has got
a, an interesting register, as
530
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,000
you said in the management team
that I guess a lot of people in
531
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,400
the market don't necessarily
bat.
532
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,120
So you've got to trade a
discount to that $600 million.
533
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,000
But I was still seated today and
I think I said it to you guys
534
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,000
the day of the deal.
I thought the day after the,
535
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,120
the, or the day the deal had
been announced, particularly
536
00:26:41,120 --> 00:26:44,400
when it opened up at I think
3334 cents was cheaper than it
537
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,960
was the day before.
Even I was up 30%.
538
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,440
I think it's a funny thing to
say, but on a risk reward basis
539
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,880
when the asset is potentially
now going to be operated by sand
540
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:56,320
fire with a clout that they have
and and their ability to develop
541
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,280
projects as as we've seen with
Mathiary, I I just think it's a
542
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,200
completely different company to
what it was before.
543
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,080
So Kev, with, with all the work
you did over over the years
544
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,560
looking at it, the the proposals
you put together, what did you
545
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,040
actually think of the deal that
that Sandfire and and the
546
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,400
company agreed to?
I've had a couple of people ask
547
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:20,760
me this and I, yeah, I, I don't
want to go too detailed as to
548
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,520
why I got asked this by someone
in particular, but I actually
549
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,720
said to this person, I, I
thought it was a really good
550
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,360
deal.
I thought it was a really good
551
00:27:28,360 --> 00:27:33,000
deal in the fact that Sand Fire
have entered into a binding
552
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,040
situation.
Whereas the Oz Minerals deal,
553
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:36,800
there was an option over the
asset for one or two years.
554
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,280
He kind of was sitting half
pregnant.
555
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,040
Whereas this, once the EGM gets
voted on, assuming it hasn't
556
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,600
been an interlope bar, then it's
binding, right?
557
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,320
So Sand Fire are obligated to
give Havilah that that that
558
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,560
capital upfront.
Yeah, you can still say there's
559
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,800
a question mark where they're
going to take the other 80%, but
560
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,440
that puts Haveler in a very
strong position at that point.
561
00:27:57,320 --> 00:27:59,920
I would say that the the the
fact that they've still been
562
00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:02,560
able to retain some of the
southern tenements 100% owned
563
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,440
like that was one of the
sticking points with anyone
564
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,640
trying to approach the company
for a full company takeover.
565
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,360
Is that the management team and
and Bob genuinely believe in the
566
00:28:11,360 --> 00:28:14,200
southern tenements.
There is going to be a cavalry
567
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,680
look alike.
Now I haven't seen all the data.
568
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:20,000
I, I, I can't confirm or deny
whether that's going to be the
569
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,240
case, but like Bergscape for
them stands as a really
570
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:26,840
interesting prospect.
And, you know, they almost have
571
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,480
dreams that it could be bigger
than Kakaru.
572
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,560
I think the fact that they're
still able to retain a stake in
573
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,480
Muturu, which I haven't even
mentioned when I was talking
574
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,920
about the $600 million in value
they've potentially got at
575
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,880
Kakaru.
Muturu for me, you know, 20
576
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,560
million tons plus, you know, one
plus percent copper or some
577
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,320
cobalt and a little bit of gold
I think stands as a really
578
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,480
interesting asset as well.
And JX Advanced Metals from
579
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,560
Japan have been negotiating with
them on that asset.
580
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,320
I think the exclusivity period
has expired on that, but I still
581
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,400
think there's optionality for a
deal to occur there and maybe
582
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,360
that could be $100 million of
value in its own right.
583
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,280
We certainly see value 100 plus
particularly thing come up with
584
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,160
a an infrastructure solution.
So I actually think the deal
585
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:10,560
picks a lot of boxes in my mind.
I would have loved to see a
586
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,680
higher price, but at the same
time, you know, compared to the
587
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:17,280
Oz Minerals deal, you know, we
can, we can argue how I've just
588
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,920
cut it that maybe there is $600
million worth of value here,
589
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:24,760
which you know, means that Bob
and Chris did the right thing
590
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,960
in, in not kind of selling out
the company for a cheaper price
591
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,480
or selling the asset at a
cheaper price than what they
592
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,560
have.
Because you know, if they if San
593
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,600
Fi can get this project to an
FID decision.
594
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,280
And then if they did want to
sell that 20% stake, which is
595
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,880
free carried and maybe you can
get 200 million plus for it,
596
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,640
then yeah, maybe we can see five
$600 million worth of value,
597
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,640
which with where the share price
is trading.
598
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,280
Like I get it's a small cap.
I get that there's been a
599
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,800
discount for this team and and
everything associated with it,
600
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,600
but I don't know what the
appropriate discount is.
601
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,080
I just think it's way too much
at the moment, right.
602
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,320
Like, yeah, I mean.
I think of the data trading the
603
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,920
day the trade was announced, it
was $0.34 and the upfront
604
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,840
consideration alone was it's
$0.30 per share on the on you
605
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,120
know, it's just it was a it's a
table banger.
606
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:16,160
And now it's like like trading
like 4340 ish 4344 cents per
607
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,480
share.
And yeah, the C, the C through
608
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,800
even after tax you can you can
be constructive on and.
609
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,800
But yeah, yeah, $150 million,
right.
610
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,680
So, you know, you're literally
paying for the upfront capital
611
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,880
and maybe mood row not even like
you're paying for the upfront
612
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:33,560
capital, you're paying for the
expiration that you're going to
613
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,640
spend and you're paying some of
it TFs costs.
614
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:41,400
So yeah, like you've literally
got a free option at their 20%
615
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,120
free carried holding.
You've got a free option that
616
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,400
sand fire comes on, gives them
another $105 million, which was
617
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:51,440
what's that is $0.22 I think.
Yeah.
618
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,480
So like I, I still see kind of a
dollar as being reasonable line
619
00:30:56,480 --> 00:31:00,920
in the sand, right?
And that's 350 million bucks at
620
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,000
this stage of where they're at.
But maybe the market's waiting
621
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,720
for the EGM vote to go through.
Because I know if you look back
622
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,400
at the the history of this
company, there has been some
623
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:12,280
some funny situations with
assets in the past where deals
624
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,600
have been voted back.
But yeah, I mean, it's extremely
625
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:17,000
interesting where it's sitting
today There's.
626
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:21,800
An EGM vote end of Jan and and
if there's, if there, if there
627
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,200
were any other like interest in
the asset, you've effectively
628
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:31,360
got a you've got to move before
that EGM. 300% So like when I
629
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,080
said I like the deal, I think
another aspect I like about the
630
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:37,120
deal is there's been question
marks whether the process that
631
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,440
they've run has been as thorough
as it could be and whether it's
632
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:40,680
create enough competitive
tension.
633
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,160
I don't know the insurance and
outs of that whole process
634
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,240
because it's you know, subject
to confidentiality agreements.
635
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,320
But now we've got a very live
option, right.
636
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,920
So if you are really interested
in this asset and you want to
637
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,720
acquire it, you've got until the
end of January.
638
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:59,280
And what will be will be, right
as as a shareholder, like if no
639
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,200
one else bids for the asset and
it comes the end of January,
640
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,080
I'll say then Sanfi won the
auction and fair play to them.
641
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,480
It's still a really good price
and the share price certainly
642
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:07,720
doesn't reflect what that price
is.
643
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,400
But if someone else is
interested, then we're gonna
644
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,360
find that out hopefully before
the end of January.
645
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,720
And yeah, and and and we'll see
what what will be.
646
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,520
One, one of the other
interesting details here is that
647
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,400
the stock just doesn't trade
that much.
648
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,440
The, the liquidity is pretty low
and obviously you've got the
649
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,160
massive shareholders and, and a
few others speaking for a good
650
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,440
few percent here and there,
which all culminates in a good
651
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:32,320
few.
But as always is the case on the
652
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:33,920
day of the deal, you see
heightened volume.
653
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,440
But even on that day it wasn't
massive.
654
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,520
It's, it's a few percent of the
company and that's completely
655
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,840
died down.
So to that end, if, if somebody
656
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,560
were to come in and, and try and
buy a stake there, they're not
657
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,440
going to have an awful lot of
luck without pushing the share
658
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,920
price up, in my mind at least.
Do you see that the same way?
659
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:55,440
Yeah, I think that's right.
And I think, yeah, what can I
660
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,440
say?
I would suspect that maybe
661
00:32:57,440 --> 00:33:00,840
parties might have tried to
consider acquiring the whole
662
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,080
company and, and maybe that
might have been a bit too hard.
663
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,720
Hence they've had to negotiate
in this type of fashion.
664
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,400
Like if, if I was San file, I
would have thought it'd just be
665
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,440
easier to, to try and acquire
the whole business, right?
666
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,320
And I, I don't know if they
approached him with that
667
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,320
proposal.
I, I know other parties in the
668
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:22,120
past have done so and it's been
harder because of like some of
669
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:26,960
the desires of and Chris and,
and you know, they pretty much
670
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,440
don't want to see this asset go
at almost any price, but
671
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,360
eventually they've got to
realise the limits of their
672
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,680
capital and, and, and other
shareholders desires.
673
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:38,680
So, yeah, I think that the
right, if the right approach was
674
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,120
made, I think they'd have to
entertain the consideration of
675
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:42,680
the whole company being
acquired.
676
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,560
But I mean, if we can see $600
million worth of value in that
677
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,840
deal, like you're going to have
to see a price a fair bit higher
678
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,080
than where it is today to at
least entertain an offer.
679
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,040
Can we talk about Knox?
Knock Knox to the thesis, Kev,
680
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,320
One that comes up a bit is, is
is met?
681
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,320
What do you say to that
critique?
682
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:07,120
I'm just going to say I'm, I'm
not technical, I'm, I'm not a, a
683
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,480
Geo, I'm not a, I'm not a
engineer or any, any stretch of
684
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,800
the imagination that the people
that I have spoken to and, and I
685
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:18,400
have kind of, I wouldn't say
what's the, what's the correct
686
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,639
word.
I've certainly asked a lot of
687
00:34:20,639 --> 00:34:24,000
people who've looked at this in
detail, their opinions and
688
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,719
people that I trust, family
members that have the expertise
689
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,520
and the technical know know how.
And I'd say that a lot of the,
690
00:34:29,639 --> 00:34:31,639
the commentary that I received
back is that a lot of the, lot
691
00:34:31,639 --> 00:34:34,600
of the mistakes that get made is
that people just think you can
692
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:38,159
just blend the oxides and the
sulfides at the same time, the
693
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,440
carbonates and the sulfides.
And it just, that's probably
694
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:41,719
where you're going to get
tripped up.
695
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,040
Like you, you probably need 2
separate processing circuits for
696
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,480
the oxides and, and for the
sulfides.
697
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,840
And if you are to process them
separately, it's my
698
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,400
understanding and, and all the,
the work that has been done on
699
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,600
recoveries and even probably the
work that BHP did that supports,
700
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,880
you know, some reasonable
recoveries.
701
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,240
You're not talking high 90s, but
you're talking 90% types of
702
00:35:01,240 --> 00:35:05,600
recoveries comes from processing
those in, in, in separate kind
703
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:09,480
of circuits.
But yeah, I mean, a number of
704
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:14,360
people have mentioned it, but
it's not a like the reason why
705
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:16,880
the asset is where it is.
It's is, it's not as simple as
706
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,480
as it could be.
You know, if it was an amazing
707
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,520
piece of geology and it was an A
grade asset, it would have
708
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,760
already been like bought by
someone.
709
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:28,760
I would say that we've heard
plenty of other, I guess assets
710
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:33,400
that, you know, during certain
markets that most people
711
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,280
question them, right.
Like I think we've thrown out
712
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,520
different examples where people
questioned Doug Ranger, people
713
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,840
questioned, you know,
Capricorn's color window asset,
714
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,560
right?
Like a slow grade, it's, you
715
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,840
know, tough ore body, whatever.
But like in the right
716
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,680
environment and the right
operators, you find solutions to
717
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,240
these types of things, right?
There's plenty of examples
718
00:35:50,240 --> 00:35:54,080
where, you know, in the right
priced environment that these
719
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,080
assets work.
You know, at gold prices of 1000
720
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,360
bucks an ounce and copper price
of 3 bucks 50 today, maybe
721
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,400
Kakaru would be a bit more of a
challenging asset.
722
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,760
But like with that oxide layer
that they've got on top, there's
723
00:36:06,760 --> 00:36:08,760
500,000 oz there that's in the
pre strip.
724
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:11,320
But if you can get the right
processing circuit, that can
725
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,720
create a pretty attractive
income stream to help you do the
726
00:36:14,720 --> 00:36:16,320
pre strip.
That can help you get into the
727
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,320
sulfides that you know.
Then hopefully you can process
728
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:26,320
at the right economics.
The the do you get get any
729
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,720
comfort out of the fact that
like, you know, sand fire under
730
00:36:28,720 --> 00:36:31,120
under Brendan Harris has
obviously been looking at a
731
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:32,280
bunch of different growth
options.
732
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,800
This is the first first deal
that they've, you know, publicly
733
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,920
come out with since since
Brendan's been MMD there, you
734
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,080
wouldn't think that they they
pay themselves upfront non
735
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,120
refundable component of of of
one O 5 without having some
736
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,240
degree of comfort on on the met
themselves, even if they
737
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,440
they're, you know, proven to be
wrong over time, like they
738
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,040
themselves must have a view that
they're constructive on on the
739
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,680
met to pay a non refundable one
O 5, right?
740
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,360
Yeah, I mean, I get that
everyone wants to have an
741
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,080
opinion, but sometimes I'm I'm
almost surprised that like guys
742
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,360
on X who'll come out and and
knock the project fail to
743
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:14,120
recognize the fact that Oz
Minerals, BHP, Sandfire and
744
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,680
probably at least three or four
other parties that maybe can't
745
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,920
name at the moment have gone and
done the network and said, you
746
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,120
know, give them the thumbs up.
And yet, you know, they've
747
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,920
looked at old feasibility
studies and some of the data
748
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,800
that they've seen and, you know,
from from old announcements and
749
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:32,360
going, oh, the Met doesn't work.
And it's like, well, to your
750
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,160
point, yeah, Sandfire invented a
non binding agreement, right?
751
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,680
And people say, Oh yeah, it's
$105 million, it's an option.
752
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,480
They'll go, yeah.
But this is what they're putting
753
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,200
their name to, as you said, like
they've, they've looked at, I
754
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,360
don't know how many projects
they've looked at, but quite a
755
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,800
number of projects.
And Oz Minerals, I, I sat down
756
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,400
and they've literally looked at
every single copper asset that
757
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,760
was available.
And, and whether or not it was
758
00:37:52,760 --> 00:37:55,400
just a bargaining chip for BHP,
you're not going to enter that
759
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,040
type of agreement if you didn't
believe in it and you hadn't
760
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,800
done the work.
So, yeah, yeah, I agree.
761
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,200
Like there's, there's, there's
enough credibility and behind
762
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,480
the names that have put their
name to it to go, well, you
763
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:09,840
know, there's enough detail to
show that it does work.
764
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:14,200
So, so you've, you know, you've
made the, the opportunity pretty
765
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:15,840
clear to us.
We've spoken about it a bunch,
766
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,520
Cav It's it's super kind of
interesting.
767
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,560
I'm, I'm really curious to hear
about how you think about
768
00:38:20,720 --> 00:38:24,360
sizing, positioning in, in the
name right now, because we've
769
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:27,320
spoken about it for so long.
But the story has really changed
770
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:30,240
the the past couple weeks.
And you've always been very
771
00:38:30,240 --> 00:38:32,920
disciplined about how you think
about sizing and, and the like.
772
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:36,080
But obviously we touched on the
fact that we, we personally
773
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:37,840
bought more after the the deal
came out.
774
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,960
How do you think about that?
Yeah.
775
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,960
I mean, like we kind of think
twos, fours, sixes in our in our
776
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,680
fund and and this is this sits
within our smaller opportunities
777
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:51,640
fund rather than a big fund that
at times when we were talking
778
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,640
about potentially helping them
with a capital solution, we were
779
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:57,480
entertaining the idea of, of, of
maybe entering into our our
780
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,400
larger fund.
But within our smaller
781
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:03,640
opportunities funds.
It was originally a kind of a 3%
782
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,400
position.
Like when we got comfort that
783
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,280
maybe they were going to come
along and and potentially accept
784
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,320
our proposal to kind of fund the
the company.
785
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,120
Then with with the capital
raise, then we're thinking of
786
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:16,560
potentially taking it higher
because I could see the
787
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,200
potential on the day of the
announcement, even though I was
788
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,840
only a 3% position.
I just, we just thought it was
789
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,320
just too attractive an
opportunity with the risk reward
790
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:28,000
having improved from the deal
and potentially like at least a
791
00:39:28,000 --> 00:39:31,000
dollar worth of value sitting
there at you know, 30-3 cents
792
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,080
that we just had to upsize it.
Now whether it stays in the
793
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,400
upsize state.
So it's got, it's gone above a
794
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,120
4% position now, which is one of
the larger positions in that
795
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,720
opportunities fund.
But yeah, it's not, we haven't
796
00:39:43,720 --> 00:39:46,080
bet the absolute farm on it.
We're not taking a 10 to 20%
797
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,200
position because that's just not
how we we position size at
798
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,160
Chester, but it is one of the
larger positions just because we
799
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,240
say the risk, risk reward is
extremely attractive.
800
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:55,760
Yeah, I like it.
Kev.
801
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,320
Is there is there anything in
the, in the narrative, in, in
802
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,400
the story or in the thesis that
we that we kind of haven't
803
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:05,800
touched upon?
I'd love for you to guys do a
804
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,680
deep dive on Bob Johnson and and
some of the interesting kind of
805
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,200
history that he's had with map
tech because it is a pretty
806
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:13,240
interesting story.
I think the whole map kept story
807
00:40:13,240 --> 00:40:16,480
and then I think there was some
interesting kind of court cases
808
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:20,760
that might have evolved revolved
around Bob and I'm not quite
809
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,880
sure where they all got to, but
there was there was certainly
810
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:25,120
some late night reading that I
did that was pretty interesting
811
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:28,040
on the matter.
I'm not sure how much that has
812
00:40:28,240 --> 00:40:33,000
impacted havless decision making
positively or negatively, but
813
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,800
there's certainly some
interesting features around him
814
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,160
and what else, what else around
the story?
815
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:44,160
I mean, I, I just think that
maybe we might see some other
816
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,880
interlopers, maybe.
I mean, that data room has been
817
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,800
open in a long time.
And, and you know, we were
818
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:51,600
personally approached by a few
parties that were, were
819
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,920
interested in that asset.
And the conversations we'd had
820
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,280
with other parties in Perth
suggest that maybe there are
821
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,040
others that are extremely
interested.
822
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:01,400
And I don't, you know how
things, these things work.
823
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,520
When one person's interested,
all of a sudden you've got other
824
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:05,400
people interested.
You know, like I remember when I
825
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,120
was a single guy, as soon as you
had one girl that was interested
826
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:10,160
in you, all of a sudden you get
a few more other offers.
827
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:14,120
So yeah, mate, maybe there's
going to be a couple of parties
828
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,600
that come out, but I mean, you
know, we've got two months and
829
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:18,720
it'll be interesting over
Christmas to see what unfolds.
830
00:41:18,720 --> 00:41:21,440
You know, if not, if nothing
else unfolds, then I'm pretty
831
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:24,480
happy with the way that Sanfi
deal looks on on paper, right.
832
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,320
And and hopefully we'd see that
de risk over time as as people
833
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:30,760
see them kind of I guess enter
into that, that binding and you
834
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,680
get hopefully get a Sanfi share
distributed to you as a, as a
835
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,960
HABLA shareholder or, or, or
whatever it is and see how
836
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,960
things play out from there.
Yeah, absolutely.
837
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,840
How the the company goes about
allocating the the funds is is
838
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:45,240
the kind of next step to think
through if if no interloper
839
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,800
emerges.
Kev, it's always awesome to to
840
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,160
have you on the show to to chat
through your ideas and your
841
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:52,400
thinking.
So appreciate you coming on
842
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:56,200
again mate.
I, I do like to say that I, I, I
843
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,280
don't usually like to peg myself
to one stock, but I mean, I did
844
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,080
promise you guys during the
Christmas cracker special that
845
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,000
like whenever something
transpired with this company,
846
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:05,320
because I was a bit mysterious
about it.
847
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:06,800
I don't like being too
mysterious.
848
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,640
I'm usually pretty transparent
with everything that I do.
849
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,800
But I did say that when
something happened with this
850
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,520
company that had come on.
So this was as, as I promised, I
851
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,240
didn't expect to honestly take
November till it occurred.
852
00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:19,200
I honestly thought it was going
to be a couple of months away at
853
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,520
the time when we filmed it.
But as you know, with all these
854
00:42:21,520 --> 00:42:23,600
things, sometimes everything
takes a little bit longer than
855
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:25,680
you hope.
But let's see what happens.
856
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:27,960
I, I seriously think there might
be another chapter to this
857
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,880
story, but there certainly will
be.
858
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,880
But it's just whether or not
there's another chapter in
859
00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:35,240
between kind of the end of end
of January in terms of another
860
00:42:35,240 --> 00:42:37,280
bid.
So fingers crossed and let's see
861
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:39,400
how we go.
Fingers crossed mate, let's see
862
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,080
if the the next Christmas
prediction is as good as this
863
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,000
one.
Crossed for a for a special gift
864
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,160
from Santa this Christmas.
I don't even mind if it comes in
865
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:48,760
January.
Well.
866
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:55,360
Yeah, I don't know what I mean,
Maybe maybe getting an M and a
867
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,800
specialist on to to figure out
what's the best kind of time to
868
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:00,640
lob a bid.
But I know some people that have
869
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,640
tried over Christmas when it's,
it's hard work.
870
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:05,000
It's it's pretty, it's pretty
inconvenient for some people.
871
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,320
But you know, it certainly puts
pressure on other parties during
872
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:08,800
that time.
So we'll see what happens.
873
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,440
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah, it absolutely does
874
00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,240
put pressure on.
No, Appreciate, appreciate.
875
00:43:13,720 --> 00:43:16,440
What's the next Havilah, Kev,
you got anything else in the
876
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:18,000
works?
Anything for us to study?
877
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:19,400
Up.
Oh, I can.
878
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:21,360
I can recycle some of the old
names that we've got.
879
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:23,120
I mean, like we still think
there's a deal to be done on
880
00:43:23,120 --> 00:43:26,760
Comet Ridge and I, I get what
you're saying about the trim
881
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,720
through, but I, I seriously
think there's still a deal to be
882
00:43:28,720 --> 00:43:31,480
done there.
I think, you know, 400 BCF worth
883
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:34,840
of gas that you know, is still
unencumbered apart from one
884
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:38,200
small contract on it.
I'm also really interested in
885
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:40,320
this Equus gas that's coming
into the market in December.
886
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:42,120
I think that looks really
interesting.
887
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,920
You know, it's almost 2 TCF
worth of gas with 40 million
888
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,400
barrels of condensate that's
coming on with a, oh, an EV of
889
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,920
maybe twenty $25 million, which
I think might be a bit
890
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:53,520
mispriced.
I think it's complexity with
891
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,440
that asset as well.
But I think the price tag that's
892
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,480
coming on that is it's pretty
attractive.
893
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:01,280
I still think there's a lot to
come from, from developing bill
894
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:05,200
or just was without a Woodlawn.
I guess I did kind of make a
895
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,040
joke about his, his ramp up, but
I, I think that's back on track
896
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:09,760
now.
I think I think the, the ramp up
897
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:11,960
is looking pretty good and I'm,
I'm looking forward to the next
898
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,360
couple of quarters that they
produce there.
899
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:16,880
Oh, what else?
There's, there's quite a few.
900
00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:19,520
I mean, Antifa, we're still
waiting on some, some resolution
901
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,040
there maybe.
So there's a few.
902
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,280
There is indeed, mate.
I need to read up on there,
903
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,160
appreciate.
Appreciate you.
904
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:29,800
Yeah, being being willing to
Bang Bang the table on this.
905
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,160
One mate, there's there's one
thing I'll I'll never stop doing
906
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,920
that's banging the table on on
the on the stocks.
907
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:35,920
I know I should have, I should
have done the big Ding Ding
908
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:37,880
Ding, but obviously you can tell
I'm a shower, so.
909
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,000
Ding Ding Ding around.
If that is not completely
910
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:44,080
obvious, just.
Put the dinging gong through the
911
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:45,800
whole episode, all right?
Just make sure that people
912
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,400
realize that this is a
completely biased opinion.
913
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,320
Yeah, but.
Like brought to you by biased
914
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:52,800
people.
Yeah.
915
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:55,760
Like I'd love to, I'd love to
hear some retort like because
916
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:58,320
when you see it on paper and you
see it's binding and you see
917
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,360
like the deal that's been
struck, I mean, obviously there
918
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,480
are retorters because people are
selling the stock at 4243 cents.
919
00:45:04,480 --> 00:45:06,960
But I just kind of think the
risk water here is pretty
920
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:08,320
pretty.
Pretty attractive, I think
921
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,440
putting your views out there is
the best way to get the feedback
922
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,000
mate.
So keen to hear what comes back
923
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:13,080
our way after.
This I'm sure.
924
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,120
I'm sure I'll get some stuff.
One way or another.
925
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,320
See how we go.
Ding Ding Ding if it wasn't loud
926
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,480
and clear.
There we go mate.
927
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,000
Fantastic to have Cav back on
the show.
928
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,880
It's been far too long.
I always love chatting with our
929
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,640
good man and all made possible
thanks to our fantastic
930
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,400
partners.
Switch Technology new one at the
931
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:33,280
beginning of the show there as
well as the classics sandwich
932
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,040
ground support focus the
platform by Market Tech and
933
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,440
Infralinks.
Hoodoo money minus hoodoo.
934
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,520
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD's an idiot if you thought.
935
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:45,720
Any of this was anything other
than entertainment.
936
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:47,920
You're an idiot and you need to
read out of.