Some precious metals booming, some in the doldrums (Sam Broom from Sprott)

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In my opinion, based on seeing
sit ups like this, when it, when

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these sort of sit ups finally
go, they tend to go pretty fast

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and pretty hard.
And I don't know where the

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supply is going to come from to
meet demand from higher prices.

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It's one of those ones where
it's, it's such a long period in

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the in the doldrums that yeah,
it's, it's hard for me to see

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where it's going to come from.
Righto Buddy Waters Easter

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Monday special Sam Broom from
Sprott You think Sprott You

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think Eric Sprott You think, say
a big ground sport.

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You think Derek Heard.
They're pretty much exactly the

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same.
That's what you think?

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There's one difference and
that's the I think Eric Sprott's

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been involved in Sprott for like
10 years.

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But Derek heard mate, he is like
he's been at like DSI see now

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Sam big ground support for 30
years.

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He's not leaving.
He's he's been there forever and

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he's not leaving.
He's not going to give up like

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Eric Sprott.
It's the only job.

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It might be the only job he's
ever had.

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Yep.
Mate and he's pretty because he

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knows there's so much still to
come out in the ground support

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world.
Like mate after hours I've seen

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the self drilling posi mix bolts
and the bloody resin technology,

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injection technology that's
going to be put on Sandvik

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jumbos.
Derek Hurd wants to see this

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through and it's not going to be
the last thing he sees because

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he is going to be making ground
support till he's pushing up

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daisies.
I'm telling you that right now

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mate.
Revolutionize the industry.

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Go Sam Victoria, go Derrick
Hurd.

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And what did you talk about with
Sam Broom?

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We talked about a lot.
Of way back to Sam Broom.

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Yeah, we talked a lot about
gold.

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Gold is a, you know, top of the
list for anyone that kind of

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works at works at Sprott, but
very interesting coming off the

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back of some of the predictions.
Money miners might know Sam

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Broom because he featured in our
our investor sort of funding

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predictions for the upcoming
year, said some very interesting

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picks.
He's also located in North

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America, so he's got a bit of a
different kind of lens to the

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world that we kind of have here
down under.

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He sort of talks about the
investor sentiment towards gold,

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the ETF flows, all these kind of
things and then.

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You can tell his style of
investing is really yeah, like,

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like looking for contrarian
things where you can have a a

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differentiated view to what the
market's pricing, have some

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patience, you know, back good
projects, good management teams

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and and get the reward.
But interestingly, not not a

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contrarian view right now is is
the love for gold.

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And he actually thinks it's
quite early there, which is.

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Which is quite interesting.
On a contrarian sort of vein of

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thought, we did speak about
vanadium, we spoke about

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platinum.
Silver hasn't quite got the the

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love yet.
So there are a few other medals

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that we touch on that you put in
the the more hated than loved

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basket at the moment and a whole
heap more as well.

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Yeah, very good right now.
Let's get into it, Sammy bro.

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Sam Broome from Sprott, thank
you very much for for making the

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time your evening our morning to
to to chat all things happening

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in our very volatile markets at
the moment.

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Yeah, thanks lads.
Pleasure to be here.

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Thanks for having me on.
The pleasure is absolutely ours

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mate.
We, we really enjoyed your, your

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brief perspectives when we, when
we dialed you in for our kind of

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end of year Fundy predictions
and a lot has changed in the,

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the few months since we recorded
that.

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I mean markets are seemingly
very volatile.

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I think there's like there's
certainly opportunities abound

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and there's at the same time
kind of, you know, the macro

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landscape is changing, tariffs
are moving, absolutely

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everything.
How are you just taking stock of

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the market we're in and how it
sort of translates to the the

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metals stocks that we're all
interested in?

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Mate, she's, she's been an
absolute cracker over the start

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of the year, hasn't she?
Gosh, I guess, I guess 2020 was

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pretty volatile to start the
year.

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But this, this would probably
have to be up there as one of

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the most volatile starts of a
year I've had in the business.

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Obviously the, the macro
landscape has has arguably

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completely changed in the last
sort of two or three weeks.

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You know, the, the tariffs that
the Trump administration have

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come up with the materially
larger than even the sort of

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most hawkish kind of
expectations go into this whole

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shenanigans.
So look, we've had crazy levels

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of volatility.
I I don't think that's, I don't

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think we're done with it.
You know, we've had a couple of

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days of calm now, I guess say
we're we're probably not not out

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the back of it.
Yeah.

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Net, net.
I think probably the biggest

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beneficiary of every, you know,
everything that's been going on

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is probably the precious metal
space.

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You know, the gold market has a
weird knack of knowing what's

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going on ahead of time a lot of
the time.

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You know, you could argue it
rallied ahead of the COVID

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crisis as well.
Obviously gold second-half of

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last year had an absolute Bender
of a run into this.

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So, you know, just at a very
high level, I think it's, it's

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no longer the contrarian trade,
clearly, but I can't see how the

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precious metals trade or I, I at
least see extremely good risk

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reward even from here after the
run we've had in the in the

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precious metals trade, just
given the sheer dislocation and

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the global financial system and
trading dynamics of the world

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moving forward.
You know, as a, as a Kiwi guy

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living in the USI feel like I
have a pretty good or pretty

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unique perspective to be able to
see things from both sides.

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And I just can't see how this
doesn't completely alter the

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whole U.S. dollar as a reserve
asset of the world status.

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And, and it isn't going to
change overnight.

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It's such a huge behemoth that
it's it's going to be one of

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those things that the changes
that result from all this last

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for or play out over years.
And I don't know, I think that

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trend's only going to become
even more entrenched and

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there'll be some volatility
along the way.

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But goal's probably the big, big
winner in the very short term at

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least.
You know, anything related to

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global economic activities,
arguably the loser, you know,

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we've seen big some big
downdrafts and a lot of the base

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metals energies doing it really
tough.

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That is the logical first order
thinking, at least in the short

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term.
In saying that, I think we all

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know what central banks around
the world and, and governments

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are going to do if things get
bad enough, right?

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They're going to turn on the
spigots of, of easing and

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stimulus again.
We're already starting to see

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some signs of that or at least
talk, you know, discussions

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about that happening.
So I, I don't necessarily think

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it's going to be as bad for some
commodities as it might seem

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right now.
And even then you've still got,

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you know, you've still got
copper north of 4 bucks and, and

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things like that.
That's on top of China's

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property sector basically being
in a depression for the last

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couple of years.
So a lot of these things are

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actually hanging out or holding
on better than I would have

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expected given what's going on
in terms of economic activity.

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And I think it actually bodes
quite well, you know, perhaps

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six months plus out once we get
through this kind of crazy phase

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where no one quite knows what to
do with things.

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So that's kind of the really the
real high level take.

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Probably nothing too nuanced
there.

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It's probably consensus at the
moment, but this is kind of one

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of those events that's so sort
of kind of out of left field

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that consensus might be the
place to be for the time being.

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Credit to you, Sam, when we
spoke in December, your non

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consensus pick was a weaker U.S.
dollar and it was it was a bit

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out there.
You were sort of reading the tea

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leaves of what was happening in
the in the macro land and the

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the so-called Mar a Lago
accords, all these sorts of

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things.
But it's turned out to be quite

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a good pick.
But we'll, we'll save you

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flowers for the end of the year.
Let's let's dive a bit deeper

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into gold, Sam.
So I'm, I'm curious to hear to

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start with how the dynamic is
over where you are, because here

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you can't walk 5 meters without
someone telling you what the

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gold price is.
But what's that sort of like for

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you based in the States now?
It's completely different mate.

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I mean, you know, someone who's
spent a bit of time in Aussie

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with gold is a is a part of the
general discussion on, you know,

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investing things like that here
in the States.

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It's still very much, I would
argue a fringe asset.

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You know, I got, I got a mate
who's a financial, you know,

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generic, you know, financial
advisor, you know, got clients,

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old portfolio, whole network
with them type of thing.

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He has, they have, last I
checked, he had zero.

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They had 0 allocation of gold.
It's not even a consideration

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and you're just part of your
broader portfolio.

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And that's physical gold, let
alone mining equities, you know,

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and it's just just straight gold
exposure.

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If I had, if I had to guess, I'd
be you the average, you know,

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gold exposure in the average US
portfolio sub half a percent.

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It's it's probably even less
than that.

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And and there's data on that.
You know, there's, you know,

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ETF, you know, gold related ETF
mark, you know, total net asset

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value as as a percentage of
total ETF capital.

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And it's like, at the moment,
it's like sub, I think.

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Where have I got it here?
The gold mining exposure is a

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stub .3% of total ETFAUM right
at its peak in 2012, it was

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almost, it was at nearly 1 1/2%.
So we're like, we're a fraction

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of a fraction of what we used to
be, you know, at the last cycle

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peak for gold.
So it's, it's an afterthought

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right now.
It is, I will say it's, it's

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probably changing, you know,
it's at some point for a lot of

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my career discussing with
institutions like owning gold is

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almost a career risk for PM over
here, or it has been.

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I, I do think that's probably in
the early stages of, of, of, of

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changing, but it's still very
much brand new assets, probably

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not quite the right term, but
it's, it's certainly an

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afterthought for most PMS.
You know, you here in the US,

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large cap tech, NASDAQ, all that
type stuff.

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That's been the only game in
town for the better part of the

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last 15 years and really the
last 25 years with a few few

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blips here and there.
So there's not been no real need

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to go out and own other assets.
So it is definitely different

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over here in the US.
It's not, it's not as mainstream

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as it is and Aussie, you know,
even even Europe, it's a lot

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more mainstream from what I
gather.

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Obviously China and Asia and you
know, third world countries

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where you've had, you've had to
deal with currency debasement

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and store value type issues much
more severely than here in the

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US It's it's mainstream, but
here it's, it's still, it's

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still very much under the radar.
I'm surprised, Sam, hearing you,

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hearing you like, I know you're
a a contrarian at heart, but I'm

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surprised hearing you say the
precious trade is, is the most

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attractive kind of way to way
to, you know, to, to play the

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current environment given it's,
it's clearly in a bull market.

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You know, gold is clearly in a
bull market.

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So what like what are you, what
are you doing to measure kind of

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how, how far or how deep that
bull market might be?

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You know, I mean, I'm still I
think one thing I the tariff

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news really did flip a switch in
terms of my thinking about gold.

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I mean, I'm always that's what
you can't really be spot

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problem.
You're not be bullish gold,

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right kind of in our DNA, but I
but I really do believe that,

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you know, it's a worthwhile
portfolio diversifier.

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But when that tariff news hit, I
mean, you know it it's basically

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a message to the world that to
me it it read like the US does

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no long no longer wants the
privilege of the of the world's

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reserve currency.
The the privilege and the

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burden, right There are
downsides to be in the world's

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reserve currency, especially on
the manufacturing side, and

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that's that's clearly something
they're targeting.

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00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,280
So, you know, a lot of money
gets made by following what

222
00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,280
governments and central banks
are telling you that they're

223
00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:12,160
trying to do, right?
And to me, that's, that's what

224
00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:14,920
this announcement, a huge part
of what this announcement was

225
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:20,640
aimed at doing.
So I think the, the, the tariff

226
00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:25,480
announcements really kind of
kick gold into being really,

227
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,000
really important here because
there is really no alternative,

228
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,360
right?
You're not, you're not going to

229
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:35,480
see large capital going and
buying, you know, European bonds

230
00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,360
or Japanese bonds or Chinese
bonds on mass.

231
00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,360
There isn't really an
alternative other than the US

232
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:43,200
dollar in gold.
So I think that ratchets up.

233
00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,160
There are, there are.
In terms of the more specific

234
00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:49,160
nitty gritty stuff as to why, I
still think it's fairly

235
00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,120
contrarian.
I mean, gold itself's had a

236
00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:57,040
great run, right?
And generally that's been put

237
00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,120
down to central bank buying,
right?

238
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:03,120
Central banks don't buy gold
ETFs, they don't buy mining

239
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,440
equities, mining ETFs, they
don't buy silver.

240
00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,040
So that's why some of these
other parts of the sector are

241
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:13,880
still relatively, you know,
lagging or or aren't receiving a

242
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:15,520
ton of interest.
I mean, just go and look at the

243
00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,440
the flows into and out of both,
you know, something like, you

244
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:24,240
know, the gold mining, the gold
bullion ETFs and the mining

245
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:28,280
ETFs, right?
I mean, GDX, the biggest gold

246
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,400
mining ETF has absolutely
haemorrhaged capital this year.

247
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:36,920
It's, it's said, I think it's
lost 15 to 20% of its shares

248
00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:38,720
outstanding this year to
outflows, right?

249
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,400
And this is with the price going
up, you know, whatever it is up

250
00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,440
now 30% on the year or something
like that.

251
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:48,960
So I dare say at market tops,
you're not going to be seeing

252
00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,200
steady sustained outflows,
right?

253
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,800
You're going to be seeing,
you're going to be seeing the

254
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,040
opposite.
You're going to be seeing money

255
00:13:56,040 --> 00:14:02,640
flying in on top of that.
I mean, on the equity space, you

256
00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:09,680
know, I mean financing activity,
IPOs, you know, all that sort of

257
00:14:09,680 --> 00:14:12,680
activity is still relatively
low.

258
00:14:12,680 --> 00:14:16,160
I mean, I think 2024, I think I
was reading the other day was

259
00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:20,040
like the worst year for IPO
activity on the ASX on record or

260
00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,480
something like that.
You know, like it's and

261
00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,600
obviously that's beyond just the
gold space, but it's, it's

262
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,520
generally been quite a hard
environment, particularly at the

263
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,120
smaller end of town.
Like when when you get to sort

264
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,600
of mid and end of bull markets,
you have just rampant

265
00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:38,960
speculative activity, small caps
flying money just gushing in.

266
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,200
Like 2021 was a bit like that,
right?

267
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,880
When it's sort of everything
bubble, when I think it was

268
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,600
counter to last year, it was
record IPO activity on the ASCX.

269
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:51,200
You know, there was just money
flying around everywhere.

270
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:56,920
You know, I had clients closing
up shop with me because they're

271
00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:00,600
only up 100% on the year when
they are making 300% over

272
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:01,880
somewhere else.
You know what I mean?

273
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,400
Like that sort of stuff.
There was definitely more of

274
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,920
that sort of a vibe.
We are completely the opposite

275
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,840
end of that today despite where
Golders, despite the mining

276
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:14,280
equity starting to move it, it
just feels very, very different

277
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:19,560
today from my perspective with a
North American centric clientele

278
00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:21,400
are.
Are you excited about sort of

279
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:23,800
silver in that precious space?
Are you one of the people that

280
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,920
still think that has value as a
precious?

281
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,360
Yeah, I mean, people starting to
look at it as, you know, golds

282
00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,200
run, I've missed the bow.
Silver hasn't really run as much

283
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,040
yet, you know, is it going to be
the next, you know, it's going

284
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,760
to be the way to play the game.
That hasn't moved yet.

285
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,680
I definitely am a silver bowl.
I'm, I'm kind of been a

286
00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:45,640
reluctant silver bowl over the
years.

287
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,000
You know, the, some of the
people involved in the silver

288
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,880
space can get a bit annoying
sometimes, but I, I actually do

289
00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,000
think that the silver space
looks quite interesting.

290
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,320
You know, we're staring down the
barrel of what looks like it's

291
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,520
going to be the fifth year in a
row of supply deficits.

292
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,280
It, it plays that kind of dual
role as a precious meal in an

293
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,680
industrial commodity, right?
So it's kind of hard to pick and

294
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,400
you know, but and as I said, you
know, the main buying, the main

295
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,560
thing driving gold right now is
central bank buying which that

296
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:19,680
you know, they don't touch
silver.

297
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,120
So it's hard to know exactly
when it's going to go.

298
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,760
But from a, from a more
traditional commodity supply

299
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:31,640
demand standpoint, things are
quite interesting technically,

300
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:34,960
you know, I, I like to use
technicals as part of my timing.

301
00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,600
It's not perfect, it's not the
be all and end all, but it can

302
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,560
be useful.
You know, looking at a silver

303
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,400
chart, for me, it looks like
it's been, it's sitting there

304
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,480
ready to go.
And, and we all know when silver

305
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,680
goes, it tends to go go pretty
hard and it tends to be a pretty

306
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,000
fun ride.
So I like silver.

307
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,920
I think it's with owning silver,
finding quality mining equities

308
00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,720
can be a little bit tougher in
the silver space.

309
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,800
There aren't that many, but you
know, we have a handful here

310
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:05,560
that we quite like.
We think we're going to do quite

311
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:07,839
well.
So yeah, I, I do like silver.

312
00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:12,160
I do, I, I own more gold because
I find it easier to find things

313
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,079
I like.
But I think silver is a

314
00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:17,640
commodity.
It's it's 2025, going to be the

315
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,400
year I think it could be.
Running out the the, the

316
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:26,359
precious sort of spectrum.
I know you've been thinking

317
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,880
about Platinum for years now and
it's it's never quite been the

318
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:35,960
right year to buy.
Tell me about it. 17 years in

319
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:37,800
the making.
I bet it's technical chart kept

320
00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:39,840
looking like it had bottomed out
over and over and over again.

321
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:45,640
Is the day coming closer?
Poor old platinum, find me

322
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,400
another commodity that hasn't
had a had a even anything even

323
00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,640
resembling a bull market for
that length of time.

324
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,200
You know, I think 2008 it talked
right with the GFC.

325
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,360
Look, I like it.
I I personally own it, to be

326
00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:04,520
honest, just the middle.
I think it's like silver on

327
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,080
steroids.
I mean, if you like silver, I

328
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:07,800
think for similar reasons,
right?

329
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,240
They're both sort of quasi
precious, almost industrial

330
00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:15,120
meals these days.
It's kind of been left for dead

331
00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:18,800
on the, you know, that's
narrative that demand was going

332
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,080
to evaporate because we're all
going to be driving EVs.

333
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:27,280
And, you know, in reality, you
know, the, the deaths of the at

334
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,920
least the hybrid car has been
greatly over exaggerated, right.

335
00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,200
And in fact, that's been one of
the strongest growth segments,

336
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,040
which they, you know, hybrids
tend to use more PG ES than

337
00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,600
traditional combustion engines.
So there's there's a nice,

338
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,440
there's a nice combination of
fundamentals that make platinum

339
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,760
continue to look interesting.
I might, I might be bald by the

340
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:54,600
time it finally moves.
I don't know, but you look at

341
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:59,360
that chart and gosh, when that
thing goes, it's, it's it's

342
00:18:59,360 --> 00:19:02,240
going to be one of those, well,
I shouldn't say it's going to be

343
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,000
in my opinion, based on seeing
setups like this.

344
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,160
When it when these sort of
setups finally go, they tend to

345
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:11,680
go pretty fast and pretty hard.
And I don't know where the

346
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:16,440
supply is going to come from to
meet demand from higher prices.

347
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,920
It's one of those ones where
it's had such a long period in

348
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,240
the in the doldrums that, yeah,
it's it's it's hard for me to

349
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:25,360
see where it's going to come
from.

350
00:19:25,360 --> 00:19:29,040
So I continue to like Platinum,
I continue to grind my teeth

351
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,480
here waiting for it to move.
But I do think sometime in the

352
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,280
next couple of years something's
going to happen.

353
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,080
There oh bloody cross boundary
energy might be an investment

354
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,600
for Broomy to make and waiting
for platinum or if this

355
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,960
platinum's going to stay down
there, maybe this could be an

356
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,320
alternative like the Norwegian
investment fund.

357
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,880
They're, I don't know if they're
in platinum or not, but they're

358
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:54,960
in CBA 40 million buckaroos into
that, probably on the back of

359
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,920
the Kamala Kakula baseline
renewables project that you

360
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,120
discussed last week made CBA.
I think they're people are going

361
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:05,960
to be lining up to.
To hand over cash.

362
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,960
It's phenomenal mate.
Yeah, the the likes of Nordism

363
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,760
tipped into CBA.
It just goes to show how what a

364
00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,680
force this this company is when
it comes to providing energy to

365
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,360
power the mines we need mate.
What a vote of confidence.

366
00:20:17,360 --> 00:20:20,800
And mate, when we're that energy
you speak of, this is like build

367
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:24,600
and operate hybrid power
stations all across the world.

368
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,800
Check out this bloke in red
circled, you won't forget him.

369
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,040
That is Tim Taylor, he's the
Australian man to talk to to

370
00:20:33,360 --> 00:20:36,440
bloody get CBE power in your
mind sight.

371
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,320
Absolute world class leaders.
Would you call him the Toolman,

372
00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:43,680
Tim the Toolman?
Taylor, he has the tools to give

373
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,680
you the power.
Oh, I love it.

374
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,080
Right.
Let's get back into Sam Broome.

375
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:51,240
Put your money into CBE Sprott.
I don't think we can talk about

376
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,080
platinum or PGMS in general
without touching on the

377
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,480
geopolitics.
What do you make of, I think

378
00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,200
when I last heard you speak
about South Africa, they were

379
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,800
sort of on the up.
They were coming into an

380
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:06,400
election.
So yeah, I mean, South Africa

381
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:11,320
and then broadly Zimbabwe and
and Russia is a bit of a dark

382
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,200
horse and they're perhaps more
with with Palladium.

383
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,840
But what do you make of the
setups in those countries?

384
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,720
So South Africa, I mean,
obviously South Africa is like

385
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:22,600
what AE something percent of
supply.

386
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,320
It's huge.
It's basically the whole, the

387
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:27,280
whole market.
Look, frankly, South Africa's

388
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,080
probably gotten moderately
better.

389
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,720
It it probably is improving, you
know, and sometimes there's

390
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,480
money to be made when things go
from as bad as they can get to

391
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:42,040
to just, you know, slightly bad.
So I, I still don't think you're

392
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,600
going to see huge amounts of
investment flow into South

393
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,320
Africa.
So I, I don't think you're going

394
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,240
to see massive supply responses
from CapEx getting spent in

395
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:53,920
South Africa.
I just don't, I just can't see

396
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,360
that happening in the, in the
near term, say the next three to

397
00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:01,840
five years.
It's that, you know, I just, I

398
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,880
just can't see it.
I mean, then you go to the next

399
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,840
down the list of Zimbabwe and,
and Russia, right?

400
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,320
And they're even less likely to
receive capital investment to

401
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:15,920
increase supply.
So you know that that's part of

402
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,280
the bull bullish meant to long
term story for platinum.

403
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,920
There certainly, there certainly
is like a bunch of money to be

404
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:27,160
made when you, when you, you bet
on the changing political regime

405
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,200
before everyone else is kind of
factored in what that could

406
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,760
really look like.
Because effectively you, if the

407
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,640
risk appetite changes or the,
you know, the discount rate is

408
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:39,760
lowered because because of a
regime change, that's a big, big

409
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,240
difference to the valuations of
equities.

410
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,200
Just look like if you had bought
Argentinian stocks or or

411
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,280
equities on the announcement of
Blay becoming president, or even

412
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,800
even a week later, before the
rest of the world had kind of

413
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,360
figured out what that could
actually, you know, mean for the

414
00:22:53,360 --> 00:22:56,920
change in in, in capital, for
that, for that jurisdiction, you

415
00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:00,520
would have made plenty of money.
Yeah, no, absolutely.

416
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,080
I mean, you can argue there are
other places like Colombia might

417
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,240
be on the cusp of that with the
elections there going on.

418
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,240
You know, Ecuador just had an
interesting reduction result.

419
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,760
You know, even even Brazil, it
might improve.

420
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,240
What are you seeing?
There, that gets you interested

421
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,960
in those South.
American jurisdictions, yeah.

422
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,960
There's just there's a shift
towards the right, you know, a

423
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,680
more business friendly,
potentially mining friendly

424
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:33,080
administrations.
So it's, it's a general trend

425
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,080
around the world, right.
I mean, Trump, you know, it's

426
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,840
the Trump kind of syndrome,
right?

427
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:40,960
There's been a lot of
left-leaning governments in

428
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,960
power through much of Latin
America for the last five to

429
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,360
eight years.
And, you know, the pendulum

430
00:23:48,360 --> 00:23:51,600
swings and it's swinging back
the other way and a lot of parts

431
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,480
of Latin America.
So melee obviously in Argentina

432
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,040
is the example you guys brought
up, but it's it's happening in a

433
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,600
few places.
You know, Latin, if we're going

434
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:05,200
to talk jurisdictions that might
be interesting for that kind of

435
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,520
dynamic looking at places
potentially opening up the whole

436
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:13,440
Latin America looks, it looks is
looking quite interesting on

437
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:15,680
that front.
Did you sort of catch we spoke

438
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,280
about not too long ago comments
from from Scott Besson and the

439
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:26,120
US in general being pretty pro
Latin America and wanting to get

440
00:24:26,120 --> 00:24:29,680
on side and Latin America and
not see what happened to Africa

441
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,240
with regards to Chinese
influence happened in in Latin

442
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,680
America as well.
Did you catch sort of that?

443
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,000
I, I didn't, I didn't catch that
interview, but I have heard it.

444
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,000
I mean it, it seems like the
current administration wants to

445
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:48,760
create, or at least a sort of
light version of America's sort

446
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,560
of trading block for key
critical, you know, critical

447
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,640
materials, commodities, things
like that.

448
00:24:56,120 --> 00:24:59,160
You know, obviously the big
winners from the, the, the

449
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,520
recent tariffs, So with Canada
and Mexico, for example, right,

450
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,440
that kind of avoided the worst
of the tariffs.

451
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,000
So I, I didn't see that.
But it does fit with the

452
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,720
messaging and the the sort of
reading between the lines that's

453
00:25:14,120 --> 00:25:18,600
coming out of this and and then
the the members of the Trump

454
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,480
administration over here.
On the on the flip side,

455
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,960
sometimes a government can go
from being, you know, relatively

456
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,720
probusiness to much less
probusiness.

457
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:33,640
And one place I'm observing that
kind of really play out in

458
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,960
recent history is, is Indonesia
right now the, the new

459
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:39,880
administration that's coming
there is juiced up or proposing

460
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,000
to juice up the, the royalties
and effective tax rates on, on a

461
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,880
lot of the, you know, the, the
nickel producers in that region.

462
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,520
As a as a contrarian at heart,
are you getting very interested

463
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,640
in the nickel space once again?
You know, that's a very

464
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:54,960
interesting question where you
spoke a little bit about nickel

465
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,760
just this today on that sort of
a front.

466
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,320
I, I've kind of been a big
nickel fanboy for forever.

467
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,960
You know, nickel, cobalt when I
first started at Sprott was kind

468
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,240
of, I had a little hunch that it
was going to be have a little

469
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,520
run back.
I sort of been 2016.

470
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,240
And so I've been kind of
following the space relatively

471
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,560
closely since then.
It's obviously been some big ups

472
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,160
and downs.
I mean, in Indonesia, you guys

473
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,720
probably know more about that
in, in Perth there you're the

474
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,640
Stone Star over from, from
Indonesia, from US.

475
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:33,320
So, but obviously it's hugely
important to the nickel market

476
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,320
given what I don't know what
percentage of global nickel

477
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:40,800
suppliers Indonesia these days.
The, the nickel market for me

478
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,680
has always been one of those
ones that because it's so

479
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,360
concentrated and in dough, all
it's going to take is, is like

480
00:26:46,360 --> 00:26:51,120
you said, a moderately moderate
deterioration and conditions

481
00:26:51,120 --> 00:26:53,520
there for to have quite an
outsize impact.

482
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:57,440
I I did notice in my nickel
portfolio last night on the ASXA

483
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,480
bunch of stuff, you know, moving
around.

484
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,320
So I don't know if that was to
do with an announcement in

485
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,800
Indonesia I might have missed.
I mean, maybe you guys can tell

486
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:07,320
me.
Yeah.

487
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,560
Not not I don't think there was
one overnight, but actually the

488
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:16,240
best part of a month ago there
was there was like a a proposal

489
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,880
for that that coming out from
the administration which has

490
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,800
only been in power for about a
year.

491
00:27:22,120 --> 00:27:26,280
And the proposal was to, to
change the effective royalty

492
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,560
rate on like various
intermediate nickel products all

493
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,280
the way kind of up the spectrum.
Like in so much, I think, I

494
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,960
think the royalty was going from
like 9% to a minimum of like

495
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,520
14%, scaling up to 19% depending
on the nickel price.

496
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,480
So it kind of, it kind of just
like really would really

497
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,240
effectively, you know, cut into
the profitability of a lot of

498
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,440
the companies.
And, and, and keep in mind a lot

499
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:51,840
of those companies they, they
invested and they built in, in

500
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,760
the industrial park.
I forget his full name, the

501
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,960
Morawala Industrial Park,
because they, they, they, they

502
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,280
have like a 10 year tax holiday
or an 8 year tax holiday.

503
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,680
But what good is a tax holiday
if you don't have any tax to pay

504
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:03,280
because you're not making any
profit because the royalty's

505
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,600
been backed up?
Yeah, Well, I mean, even even

506
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:11,160
the, the Chinese backed, you
know, the new supply, the the H

507
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,640
Bell stuff coming out and I
mean, they must be hurting at

508
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,240
these nickel prices, right?
They, they can't be making a

509
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,720
heck of a lot of money at these
prices.

510
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:23,320
And then like you said, I mean,
Indonesia's, you know, they

511
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:24,840
don't want to give this stuff
away, right?

512
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,760
So it's not surprising that
we're here.

513
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,280
And that's obviously it's a
hugely environmentally

514
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,360
destructive method of mining
too.

515
00:28:31,360 --> 00:28:33,280
So I've, you know, we've been
hearing about pushback and

516
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:39,440
country for quite some time
about, you know, not everyone's

517
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,160
a big fan of in Indonesia,
what's been going on over there

518
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,840
in the nipple space.
So look, I, I don't have any

519
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,640
specific insights on to whether
there's going to be any imminent

520
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:52,400
changes there, but it is
something that I think as if

521
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,000
you're a nickel fan, you've got
to keep a close eye on because

522
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,600
it wouldn't take much to upset
the apple cart over there.

523
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,840
And all of a sudden the nickel
space goes from being probably

524
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,160
one of the heightest, you know,
most contrarian hated

525
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,960
commodities out there right now
like that and cobalt and maybe

526
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:11,400
lithium's vying for vying for
the most contrarian set up right

527
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,160
now.
I do see more potential in

528
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,640
nickel for some sort of
disturbance to the market than

529
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,920
than lithium.
If I was going to, I was going

530
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,400
to have a go picking a bottom
commodity.

531
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,240
There there was another
commodity as well, Sam, that

532
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:26,120
you.
Put.

533
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,280
Forward and I wouldn't put it in
a hated basket with those other

534
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,200
ones because I think people just
don't care about it.

535
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,440
But vanadium is 1 you'd spoken
to us about and you sort of

536
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,240
spoke to the the narrative of a
bit of battery demand picking

537
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,720
up.
It's obviously still an alloy or

538
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,600
using the steelmaking process as
well.

539
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,680
But what's the What's the latest
in vanadium world?

540
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,640
Yeah, I seem to be a masochist
and love these sort of either

541
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:55,960
completely, you know, unfollowed
or majorly beat up commodities.

542
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,320
So vanadium piqued my interest
sort of mid last year as I

543
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,720
started reading these articles
about these sort of massive

544
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,480
vanadium redox flow battery
complex has supposedly broken

545
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:15,760
ground in China.
So since then the vanadium

546
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:21,200
prices, I guess it's the
benchmark prices are slightly up

547
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,880
over the last month or so, but
probably down on when we had

548
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,760
that conversation.
So it's only gotten worse.

549
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:30,840
You know, it's this commodity
that was, you know, pint oxide.

550
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,760
If we're using using pint oxide
was, you know, north of 30 bucks

551
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,480
a pound at the last cycle back
in 2018.

552
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,520
It's sort of 5:00-ish dollars a
pound today.

553
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,520
So, you know, 8085% lower than
where it was at cycle peaks

554
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:49,040
really bombed out.
You've got, you know, a number

555
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:54,040
of prominent producers either
battling bankruptcy or close to

556
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,440
it.
Almost the entire cost.

557
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:01,360
Give underwater how?
Much primary production is there

558
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,000
or is it largely like a Co
productive?

559
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:11,880
The the Co products, probably
70% of the market, you know, you

560
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,680
know, that's it's a production
that comes as part of the steel

561
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,680
making process.
It's like the vanadium buried

562
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:20,040
slag at the end.
China and Russia dominate that

563
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:21,800
back as well.
So there is this sort of

564
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,640
security of supply angle to that
one as well.

565
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,120
If anything really goes pear
shaped, you know, I keep

566
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:31,760
checking my, you know, export
ban news every morning to check

567
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,800
to see if vanadium was was on
that list.

568
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:41,160
But anyway, so it's just that it
should just ticks a lot of the

569
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,760
boxes I look for if I'm really
trying to get contrarian and buy

570
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,200
something that's really wasted
and bottomed out.

571
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,720
You can get your you can get
completely obliterated playing

572
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:54,480
this game, right.
It's kind of one of those

573
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,080
situations where and because
there aren't very many ways to

574
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:02,120
play it, but it's it's sort of a
complete wipeout or a team bag

575
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:03,680
up from here and type sit up
right.

576
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,480
And it's probably 5050 odds each
way and picking the timings

577
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,840
extremely tough.
Obviously the main use of

578
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:12,840
vanadium right now is a steel
additive.

579
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:18,160
So global economic activity,
China property slump, you know,

580
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,200
they're all not bullish at the
moment.

581
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,200
Although there were steel
regulations, new steel

582
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,400
regulations in China that came
to effect last year, which in

583
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,880
theory should, you know,
increase vanadium consumption by

584
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,600
sort of 10 to 15%, it all else
being equal.

585
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:39,000
I think steel demand is going
down at the moment.

586
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,240
So that's probably offsetting
any of those potential gains.

587
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:45,760
But the, the real step change
catalyst is the sheer quantity

588
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:48,720
of these vanadium redox flow
batteries that are supposedly

589
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,160
like in construction or very
close to it.

590
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,760
Like these aren't in permitting
phase.

591
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,000
These are getting built, you
know, very close to breaking

592
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,760
ground.
The, the, the number, as I've

593
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:05,600
seen quoted as so large that I,
I don't, I can't believe them.

594
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,040
It's just not enough vanadium to
to suit them, which doesn't make

595
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,000
me question the thesis, right?
When something sounds so good to

596
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:15,400
be true or, or the numbers look
too big relative to the markets

597
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,240
involved, it does make you pause
a little bit.

598
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,840
But even if the fraction of them
are true, I mean, it's going to,

599
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,040
you know, it's going to drive a
material, you know, it's going

600
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:30,920
to take the VRBS demand from
instead of sub 10% to, you know,

601
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,880
twenty, 3040% of total vanadium
demand within the next couple of

602
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,600
years.
So and that's under sort of

603
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,400
lowest case discounting
scenario.

604
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:43,200
So I think it's interesting.
Very hard to play, not a lot of

605
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,600
ways to play it.
I'm highly speculative, but I

606
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,360
the contrarian to me couldn't
help it.

607
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,640
So it's one I've been calling I
think.

608
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,480
I'm going to have to do some
homework on that myself.

609
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,920
There's a yeah, there's no doubt
there's a, there's a type of

610
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,880
business in, in our, in our
world, Sam, that are just

611
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:05,440
remarkable businesses, kind of
kind of hard to replicate, hard

612
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,080
to emulate.
But royalty businesses are just

613
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,920
like beautiful businesses.
We, we don't have many listed on

614
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:14,960
our wonderful exchange, but over
in North America, there's many.

615
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,920
What do you, what do you make of
the, the, the royalty players at

616
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:26,080
the moment and kind of you know
their, their appeal to, to

617
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,679
investors, you know, amid any
kind of market moves versus

618
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,360
versus the equities?
Great question.

619
00:34:34,199 --> 00:34:36,280
I I love the royalty business
model.

620
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:41,120
I'm I'm surprised it's not it's
got one, it's popular and

621
00:34:41,159 --> 00:34:43,600
Aussie.
Yeah, I guess we do private,

622
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,880
private, yeah, private royalty
fund there.

623
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,840
I I mean it's probably partly a
function of the tough markets

624
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,199
have had, you know a lot most of
the last 10 years has been

625
00:34:55,199 --> 00:34:58,320
pretty tough going in the mining
equity space, particularly the

626
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:02,160
precious metals equity space,
which is where we do a lot of

627
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,480
our business through that the
better run royalty companies

628
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:10,560
have generated by far the best
returns on average.

629
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:13,920
A lot of that is you get, you
get all these sort of

630
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:18,560
optionality to the commodity
price without all the risk, the

631
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:22,120
mining risk, you know, inflation
risk, margin compression risk,

632
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,240
all of that sort of risk that
goes with the mining equities.

633
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,320
On the flip side, you, you know,
you can argue they're not quite

634
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:33,880
as leveraged into in a full
blown bull market experience.

635
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,320
You know, you, you look now for
example, where gold's just gone

636
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:45,200
from, you know, 2000 to 3200
bucks an ounce on on paper, a

637
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,800
lot of the mining equities are
going to have a lot more talk in

638
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:51,520
terms of, you know, earnings
growth, free cash flow growth

639
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:54,840
per ounce of production.
You know, you look at some of

640
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,200
these big royalty companies,
right?

641
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,840
And they're 30 to $50 billion
companies doing, you know, one

642
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,560
or $2 billion of revenue a year.
And they've got like 19

643
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,320
employees, right?
They're just, they're just

644
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:12,880
capital light businesses and a
capital heavy industry, which as

645
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:17,440
a, as a business is a, to me is
a really good, it's a really

646
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,120
good business model.
You know, there's, there's kind

647
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,520
of a saying that you, you know,
you what is it?

648
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,520
You, you date the royal, you
date the mining companies, but

649
00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:27,280
you marry the royalty companies,
right.

650
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,360
It's kind of like they're kind
of more they're great to the

651
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:33,040
long term hold vehicles or much
more applicable to that kind of

652
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:37,360
approach than say trading your
way in and out of cycles in the

653
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,200
gold or in the in the mining
equities.

654
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,280
So I like them.
They're kind of like core parts

655
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,960
of my client portfolio, the ones
I tend to touch less and less

656
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:51,280
tempted to trade and sell.
You know, you look at, you know,

657
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:56,880
some of the larger cap North
America enlisted precious metals

658
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:01,520
royalty companies outperform,
you know, the NASDAQ during from

659
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:07,320
2012 to say now, right, most of
which was a bear market for gold

660
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,840
up until the last couple of
years released a flat market.

661
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:14,640
So they've got generally got
very high, you know, return on

662
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,320
equity, things like that, return
on capital invested.

663
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,000
They, they also have a lot of
embedded optionality to things

664
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,000
like exploration success, right?
You'll, you'll probably hear PL.

665
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,720
or someone talk about Franco's
founding royalty and what he

666
00:37:28,720 --> 00:37:32,880
paid and how much it's paid back
since given the sheer quantity

667
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:38,720
of exploration success they had,
that then turned into future Oz,

668
00:37:38,720 --> 00:37:40,120
right that he didn't pay a cent
for.

669
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:44,560
So when done right, I think the
royalty business model is

670
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,200
really, really good.
I will say today it's kind of

671
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,840
been found out or the market has
bidded up to much higher

672
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,640
multiples than the mining
equities.

673
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,560
So on paper, the push back I
usually get is great, but

674
00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:00,560
they're very expensive.
I push back on that a little

675
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:02,160
bit.
I don't think markets are

676
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,720
stupid.
I think they've bet it up for a

677
00:38:04,720 --> 00:38:06,880
reason.
I don't think the beta run

678
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:08,480
royalty companies are going to
be cheap.

679
00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:11,320
I think they're always going to
trade at a high multiple.

680
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,840
But if you're a bargain hunting,
you're not the absolute most

681
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:16,760
bargain place you could probably
look right now.

682
00:38:19,720 --> 00:38:21,760
Yeah, they.
Are why, why, why do you, I'm

683
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,720
curious for you guys, why do you
think that's they're completely

684
00:38:23,720 --> 00:38:26,160
absent from the assets?
Is there a cultural reason

685
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,440
there?
Is that what's the?

686
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,640
I don't think in there.
I don't personally think it's a

687
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,480
cultural reason so much as just
a function of the success of the

688
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,560
American ones.
Like they, they happen to be

689
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,880
listed there.
Like we do have Datera and that

690
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,760
that trades well, people, people
love it.

691
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,720
Generalist investors will flock
to it for for iron ore exposure

692
00:38:46,720 --> 00:38:49,400
if it's sort of fits there their
parameters and stuff.

693
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,520
So in in part, I think it's a
kind of quirk of history that

694
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,800
wait and Franco just happened to
be there.

695
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,400
We.
We didn't have the oil and gas

696
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:03,200
analogues, you know, to, to for,
for the early investors and it

697
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,360
and because there are these like
beautiful dynamics of the

698
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,680
royalty businesses that it's
like it's quite hard to compete

699
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:11,880
with the existing royalty
business who's already doing

700
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:13,320
well because they have the lower
cost of capital.

701
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,120
So capital kind of goes that
way.

702
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,440
And the other part too is like
our, I think, I think that ASX

703
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:21,200
has much more forthcoming equity
capital markets.

704
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,560
Even royalty financing vehicles
have a hard go here because

705
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,240
companies are a lot more
apprehensive about, you know,

706
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,280
royalty finance versus equity
finance if the equity's there on

707
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,240
the table for about obvious
reasons.

708
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,480
I do know a couple people in
these parts that have made a bit

709
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,840
of money from royalties.
Totally that.

710
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,200
And that's the irony too.
Like our millionaires like Gina

711
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,000
Clive Bennett's, like they, you
know, they're, that's, it's

712
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:44,320
royalties that they've made
them.

713
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,040
Kept them, kept them private and
kept the cash flowing to them.

714
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,360
OK, you're lucky to get involved
in the right royalty space.

715
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:55,520
I mean the the magic assets, you
know, as long as you pay the

716
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:59,360
right amount for them or, or you
get them in an early stage, so.

717
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,680
Yeah, arguably they're yeah.
I'm a big fan.

718
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,240
Last sort of question that came
to mind with, with all the stuff

719
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:08,920
that is happening in in the
States, are you a bit more

720
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,640
bullish about mining projects in
America or do you think the the

721
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,720
red tape and where the states is
at is like that ship sailed a

722
00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:20,000
long time ago?
You know I.

723
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,080
Think you can?
Afford to be a little bit more

724
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:23,000
bullish.
Yeah.

725
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,280
I mean, US was tough, has been
tough for most of my career.

726
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,400
I mean, people always talk
about, you know, jurisdictional

727
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:34,440
risk in places like West Africa
and, you know, Latin America and

728
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,480
places like that.
And now experienced in terms of

729
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:41,560
realized risk, like I've
probably got bitten more by US

730
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:45,520
based projects getting the
permitting kibosh or something

731
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,960
like that.
Then I have my assets taken off

732
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:53,720
me in West Africa, right.
So my personal view was that and

733
00:40:53,720 --> 00:40:59,840
possibly still as the US has a
lot more risk than people gave a

734
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:03,240
credit for.
I will say, you know, under this

735
00:41:03,240 --> 00:41:06,320
administration, it does seem
like the permitting process is

736
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:07,960
going to get much more
streamlined.

737
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,160
So I do think it's, I do think
it's worth dusting off your

738
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:15,720
favorite US assets is clearly
going to be a push for domestic

739
00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:19,040
production of a whole range of
different critical materials.

740
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:26,360
So if you were going to buy
assets or companies in the US,

741
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,840
it's better today than it has
been any time in my career

742
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:32,120
arguably.
And it's probably not just it's

743
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,120
not just the US either.
I mean, Canada's now looks like

744
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:37,760
it's going to get serious at
rolling back red tape and

745
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,160
reducing the sort of duplicate
components of its permitting

746
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,160
system.
You know, now that it's kind of

747
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,800
had a bit of a shake up too that
things aren't always going to be

748
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:49,600
hunky Dory with their neighbor.
So I do think permitting

749
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:54,200
projects in North America in
general just got a little bit

750
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:59,200
better in the last four, six
months or even this whatever it

751
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:03,520
is five months, so.
Last one from me, Sam, you

752
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,080
transitioned from from GO to to
portfolio manager.

753
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:11,120
What's one thing you you didn't
appreciate as a GO that you're

754
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,120
you kind of had to had to come
to terms with when you became a

755
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,520
market animal?
Gosh.

756
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:21,880
You know, market animal
management quality, it's so

757
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,040
important, right When you're a
GO, you sort of just look at the

758
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:28,440
rocks and and think, you know
that it's the be all and end

759
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,560
all.
Once you start managing money,

760
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:35,280
you realize that copy management
will do a really good job of

761
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,400
screwing up great rocks for you
if you're not careful.

762
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:42,440
So, you know, to the point where
now I take an average deposit

763
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:47,400
with a, with a A+ correct team
over the other way around.

764
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,880
To be honest, I've had, I've
learned at least in the hard way

765
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:53,800
a couple of times in my career.
So you know that that's, that's

766
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:55,640
probably the big one.
And it comes down a whole bunch

767
00:42:55,640 --> 00:43:00,880
of things from, you know,
Capital Management to, yeah, I

768
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,800
hope there's a whole range of
factors involved.

769
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,920
I'd probably put that one easily
as my biggest, biggest learning

770
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,240
lesson now being on the capital
market side.

771
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,720
I think that's a fantastic point
to leave the conversation on.

772
00:43:11,720 --> 00:43:14,320
Thank you so much, Sam Brunn for
joining us on Money of Mine.

773
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:17,800
Cheers guys, Appreciate it.
Ready to be on?

774
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,800
Thank you, mate.
So in social.

775
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,520
Thank you, Samuel Byrne.
Or if it's Samuel or are you

776
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,480
going to be Samuel?
I reckon, yeah.

777
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,400
Let's run with that.
And let's run with going to the

778
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:33,440
JRX conference, May 2020.
Second, make sure you use the

779
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:35,240
bloody code.
You get a discount.

780
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:36,600
I'm going.
I can't wait.

781
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,800
It's the center of tech and
innovation and there's some

782
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,600
freaking good keynote speakers
going to be there, mate.

783
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:44,240
Get your tickets, get your
tickets.

784
00:43:44,240 --> 00:43:46,400
Links in the show now.
It's a great part partners also

785
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:51,960
MMS grounded samba ground sport
CR insurance K drill WA water

786
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:56,040
boards go Gerard James quattro
KCA black diamond drilling

787
00:43:56,040 --> 00:43:58,880
services that mentioned in the
show Cross boundary energy

788
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:05,000
contained in this episode of
Money of Mine is of general

789
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,280
nature only and does not take
into account the objectives,

790
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:10,640
financial situation or needs of
any particular person.

791
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,960
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

792
00:44:14,000 --> 00:44:17,040
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

793
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,880
advice is to your objectives
financial situation.

794
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:20,720
And needs.