Smart Money is Buying-the-Dip in Copper and Gold

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Copper in our fund, it's our
biggest single commodity

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exposure.
It's about 30% of the funds.

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We're very bullish on the
outlook.

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There, it feels like a buy the
dip kind of moment for a lot of

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people out there.
But I don't understand the non

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gold ones that they've got.
All righty, Dave Franklin,

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fourth time on the show.
We're thrilled to have you back.

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Thanks for joining us again.
No thank you JD and Trev.

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Good to be back and looking
forward to.

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The chat exhausted or refreshed
given the market.

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A bit of both really.
You know, I think there's

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always, there's always things
keep you interested in there so

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and always value opportunities
so.

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We've got no shortage of things
to talk about today, so we're

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going to kick things off talking
a bit of macro.

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We're going to run through all
the commodities, uranium,

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copper, gold, precious more
broadly and then we've got a

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bunch of quarterlys to jump
through as well.

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So we're going to jump through
the the highlights and the low

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lights and then US Antimony
Corp.

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What else?
Don't forget the deals, mate.

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Big raises deals, rarer
financings, antimony takeover

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deals.
US governments in around the mix

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and retails up and about mate.
Shareholders are interested.

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People are buying stocks again,
maybe not the best stocks all of

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the time, but you know what
retail is back.

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And it kind of makes me happy
when retail's around.

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I'm sure it makes a difference
to to institutional investors as

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well, Dave, because you need,
you need retail flow to to get a

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liquidity rewrite if you play at
the lower end of the curve.

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I, I think you're right.
I think last time I was on, I

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was talking about being an
institutional investor and you

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go through periods where you
just try not to lose money and

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then you're going through
periods where you you're making

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money.
And, and we're very much in that

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phase now where, you know, we're
making money in the fund and

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investors are making money and
retail investors are coming in

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and it all looks good.
So let's hope it continues on.

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Long may it continue.
All right, guys, let's kick off

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with uranium talks.
So big deal overnight between

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the US government and also
involving Westinghouse Electric,

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Kamiko and Brookfield.
So Kamiko was up 25% on this

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one.
Essentially we're we're talking

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about Trump's push for for
energy dominance.

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The the headline is an 80
million dollar, $80 billion

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rather price tag that's going to
be written.

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Japan is going to get involved
as well.

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And they are building reactors
in the States again.

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So there's, there's a few
financials, but the, the details

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are still relatively light on.
But it's, you know, it's about

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sentiment, it's about things
happening.

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It's about Japan getting
involved.

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It's in the lead up of Trump
going to speak with GE and

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potentially another big trade
deal.

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So there's lots in in the works
here and it comes at a very

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interesting time because the US
hasn't built a big reactor in a

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a long time.
Vogel was the last one they

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built and that blew out by 2 1/2
times cost $35 billion.

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So leads a bit to be desired
there.

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But reactors are a very, very
big ticket item.

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They cost a lot of money.
So you kind of need the

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government to get involved to to
hold the hands of the likes of

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Brookfield and other massive
capital allocators.

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But when you sort of hear this
hit the wires, what's your kind

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of first thoughts on this one,
Dave?

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Yeah, look, I reckon it's it's
it's a very significant

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announcement because if you look
at the uranium sector, the thing

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that it's lacked is urgency,
right.

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You've had chemical and cause
out of problems sort of plodding

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along.
You've had the utilities under

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no real rush to sign up deals.
While everyone's talking about

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building new, new reactors, they
take a long time and cost a lot

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of money.
And I think this changes.

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It just says, OK, the US is
saying we're serious about

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nuclear power and we're going to
get on and do it.

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So I think it's, you know, one
of the most significant

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announcements that that that has
come out in the sector, you

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know, in recent times.
Huge, yeah, yeah, huge.

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Yeah.
I found really interesting

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though about it was like 80
billion dollar $80 billion fund,

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just a tiny detail $80 billion
speed to be allocated to build

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out these new reactors.
The only thing missing in the

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release was how many reactors is
that?

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How many reactors can build out
that 80 billion?

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I guess it comes to the the size
of the reactor, right?

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But it's probably something
like, you know, 8 or 10.

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I thought FT estimated 8, but
you know, yeah.

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Anyway, so there's a bit to play
out here.

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With with the Japanese, they
start talking about helping out

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with SMRS and these sorts of
things, which is obviously a

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much, much smaller ticket.
So we'll kind of see.

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But yeah, keen, keen to see a
lot of numbers.

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And I think, you know, you, you
get to a point in time 80

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billion and above and the, the
numbers start to, to not mean an

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awful lot there.
Such big numbers.

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They were talking at the same
time about the Japanese coming

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in, investing 300 plus billion
dollars in the states in various

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infrastructure projects, not
just uranium.

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But yeah, it's, it's a vast
amount of money that needs to be

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spent.
And the the big tech companies

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are keen to get involved and do
their thing as well.

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We saw Google come out with a
deal earlier this week because

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the kick up in energy demand.
They need the the demand for the

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data centers.
Super, super encouraging to see

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the, you know, the, the urgency
of, of trying to, you know,

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create energy abundance in, in,
in all forms.

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Yeah, I think that policy's a
very wise one.

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There's a bit to play out, long
timelines associated with it

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all.
Some stage the question is going

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to certainly need to be asked,
you know, where is all the

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uranium going to come from?
And I wonder, I wonder if, if

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this is the announcement that
comes before we're actually

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going to get another
announcement and that is a a

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strategic uranium reserve
announcement.

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What do you think of that, Dave?
Yeah, look, I don't think

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there's a shortage of uranium
when the, when the, you know,

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it's kind of economics wins,
right.

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So, so when the price is high
enough to incentivise and you've

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got government support, then I
think it'll happen.

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So I don't, you know, and
obviously Australia has a big, a

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big resource, Canada has a huge
resource.

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It's just a matter of getting on
and and doing it.

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And I think what this shows is
demand is building and that's

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good for pricing.
So yeah, I think it's it's

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heading in the right direction.
So we, we kicked about the idea

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of these types of groups,
Brookfield type names getting

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involved in the in the nuclear
space in the past.

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And I want to go one step
further.

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Can you see a world in which
they would get involved at a a

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project level in some shape or
form just to yeah, just seeing

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the the opportunity there and
the the economics of a project

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for a commodity where the demand
you can map out a bit better

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than you can with with other
commodities.

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Yeah, well, well, I think you're
right.

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You know, really they're big
ticket projects, whether it's

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building a reactor or whether
it's developing a mind.

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And so you need people that have
and groups that have, you know,

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long term horizons.
So the Brookfields of the world

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are well placed for that and,
and governments are well placed

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for that.
So I think you're right, you

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know, I think you'll see capital
allocated to that sector.

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It's it's moving into the
mainstream for a long time it's

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been on the edge, but I think
this really creates the momentum

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to to have money directed at it.
The the infrastructure funds of

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the world, they they need, you
know, very, very long, long

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term, you know, contracts at a,
at a, at a price that you know,

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is, is to some degree inflation
resistant and and fixed.

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And, you know, uranium supplying
A reactor.

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It fits the mold of an
infrastructure like a cash flow

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dynamic that you can have the
the certainty of of of price on,

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on, on FID of these these
reactors.

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Yeah, I think, I think the
application of that financing

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dynamic into into the mining
world is it's cool.

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Like when you last read the big
Score, what was the, the, what

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was the, the relevance where,
where Brookfield Consortium or

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the previous incarnation of
Brookfield was involved in, in

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some way, shape or form in the
nickel market?

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You're testing my memory here,
but it was, it was the previous

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incarnation of the Canadian
group that.

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Ultimately became.
That got involved and they tried

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to to try to partner up with
with other groups and and do a

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deal for for American diamond
fields.

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Yeah.
So it's that like, and it's that

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analogy that I know you've had
next Gen. in the past.

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I don't know if you've still got
it as a core portfolio position,

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but the strategic value of arrow
like you know it, it, it only

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goes up in this in this sort of
world, right?

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Well, totally.
You know, really what there's

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not many large, long term, you
know, high, high, high, high

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production assets out there.
Arrow is 1, you know, Denison

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slightly different style of
asset, but but that's coming on.

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But they're both, you know,
they're they're both nearing

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their final approval.
So, so you're seeing some major

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projects coming forward and
there's a few, few others.

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We own ISO Energy, which is
actually 30% owned by Next Gen.

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that has a cracking deposit in
in the Athabasca called

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Hurricane, which which also
looks really interesting.

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So.
Recently merged with Toro.

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So takeover, so it's much bigger
than Toro.

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But again, that's that's an
interesting angle where they're

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saying we've got great assets in
other parts of the world, but

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let's put our foot on some
decent scale early, earliest

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stage development assets in
Australia, which I think is an

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indication that how they see the
geopolitical situation changing

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in Australia towards yeah.
Very keen to see how it changes

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and the, the, the landscape and
the, the permitting changes here

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in, in our state and in our
country more more broadly.

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Why don't we move on to to gold
guys being a super volatile

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time, if we zoom out far enough,
Dave, since you last came on and

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since you first came on, it's
just been a one way street.

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But try telling that to people
when it's come off 10% in the

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last week or so.
But if you if you look at the

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average price like we spoke
about before for 2025, still

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$3200 and we're sitting at 4000
bucks right now.

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Jumping over to silver just
quickly that's also down by a

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similar margin, maybe a bit more
that kind of talk to it from 55

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to 47 odd bucks.
But there seems to me I'm

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curious to to just sort of gauge
the sentiment with you first.

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It feels like a bit by the dip
kind of moment for a lot of

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people out there.
A lot of people that have cash

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around are sitting pretty happy
because some of these stocks

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have peeled off 20 plus percent
in in the last week or so.

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Is that am I picking up on the
the same sentiment that you are

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there?
Yeah, I think so.

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I mean, I, I think there's a
number of factors there.

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As you alluded.
I mean, gold prices had a huge

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run and you know, between I
think the 20th of August and the

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20th of October, two months, the
US gold price rose by 1000

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dollars, 30%.
That's crazy, which is

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incredible.
And now it's pulled back 10% and

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you're right, people are going,
you know, we're we're worried

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here.
So, so I think that you know,

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the tailwinds for gold that we
all talk about, you know, the

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basement of yours dollar, you
know, geopolitical risk,

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interest rates coming down,
etcetera, you know, they're all

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still in place.
So you got to be bullish on

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gold.
But having said that, the, the,

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the, the rapid rise in the gold
price was, was accompanied by

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the even more rapid rise in gold
equity prices.

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So, so there is a bit of a, you
know, a consolidation that I

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think needed to happen.
So, you know, so we, we, we

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think that you could see a bit
more consolidation, a bit of a,

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a stabilization, but ultimately
I think you want to have gold in

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00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:23,720
your portfolio A.
Sustainable rally is not when

225
00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,320
price just goes, you know the
vertical that that that you you

226
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,520
do want it to be yeah yeah.
Have have periods of having a

227
00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,560
breather, yeah and yeah, back up
again.

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00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,280
I, I, I think the other fact,
what's interesting is you know,

229
00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:40,160
what's driven gold price
particularly recently, and what

230
00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:45,760
you've seen is a lot of buying
in ETF gold physical ETFs out of

231
00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,400
the US, right?
And, and historically that's

232
00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,160
been pretty fickle, right?
So the last time you saw that

233
00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,400
was Covad, whereas really panic
driven this time.

234
00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,000
I think there's, there's a bit
of panic peak, you know, the, on

235
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,000
one side, there's people that
are worried about what's

236
00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,440
happening in the world, but on
the other side, I think you got

237
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,600
people jumping into gold because
I think they've missed it,

238
00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,120
right?
So, so there's kind of the a

239
00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:11,040
combination of of fear on one
side and and greed on the other,

240
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:12,120
right.
That's been driving it.

241
00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,920
And just as just as that
happened, you know, you get a

242
00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,440
pull back.
So momentum wise, you might just

243
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,760
need a bit of a a settling down
period.

244
00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,720
But but yeah.
Well, I don't think we've

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00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:27,040
actually spoken about it on on
the show yet, but the Lions at

246
00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,680
the Perth Mint at the ABC
refinery in, in Sydney, people,

247
00:12:30,680 --> 00:12:34,840
yeah, queuing up for 5-6 hours
to buy, yeah, a small bar bar of

248
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,080
gold that like, yeah, I find
that I didn't have that on the

249
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:39,800
on the, on the bingo card for
this year.

250
00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,960
It's funny how you get the, you
know, the, the, the physical

251
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,200
ability to see the interest in
some ways, but but it's just,

252
00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,680
it's just a physical
manifestation of more, more

253
00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:48,760
volume.
You know what I mean?

254
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,480
Like that's like, yeah, when you
get more, more market depth on

255
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:52,920
it on the screen, that's the
same thing.

256
00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:56,280
More, more people wanting to buy
and yeah, and, and at a high

257
00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:57,600
price, more people wanting to
sell.

258
00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:58,280
Nice.
Yeah.

259
00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,800
So on the on the flip side to
that, the the central bank

260
00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,440
action as you mentioned is quite
interesting, Dave.

261
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,320
And we've seen huge central bank
buying from the likes of Poland,

262
00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:09,240
Turkey, China, these these sorts
of countries.

263
00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,320
And we are starting to see a
couple more countries talk about

264
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,480
this.
I think Korea mentioned in the

265
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:18,440
past week or so that they would
look at adding, adding gold to

266
00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,520
their, their reserves.
Gold as an asset class.

267
00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,320
You, you shared a great chart
the other day, Trav.

268
00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,320
Gold as an asset class for
central bank holdings is now

269
00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:30,800
just shy of of U.S. dollars.
And they have been sort of

270
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:34,000
converging.
It's outstripped yen, euro, all

271
00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,360
these other things.
It's a combination of EC of the

272
00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:38,320
buying as well as the, the
increase in price and the the

273
00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:42,920
overall value of it going up.
But they, you know, we, we like

274
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,000
to think they don't operate the
same way as retail investors.

275
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,280
They're not.
They get orders to execute and

276
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:50,920
they just go at it until they're
kind of done.

277
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,680
And that that's the kind of
common wisdom of of how they do

278
00:13:53,680 --> 00:13:56,040
it.
I feel like that's like a, a

279
00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,920
fraught analogy, you know, the,
the, the masters of our

280
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:01,120
currency, not thinking like
retail investors.

281
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,120
The central bank, international
central bank community is full

282
00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:04,760
of groupthink.
They all do the same thing at

283
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,120
the same time.
They, they, you know, like, I

284
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,680
think, I don't think you have
original thoughts.

285
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,920
They copy each other and when
they all do something, they'll

286
00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:14,240
do something at the same time.
So.

287
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,040
Couldn't couldn't agree more.
I think more in the execution of

288
00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,240
of of how they do it the.
Trade, yeah, sure.

289
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,360
But you know, like to the extent
of like should should we be

290
00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,040
surprised that all of a sudden
every, every central bank is

291
00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:30,480
pretty concerned about holding
US more U.S. dollars in gold?

292
00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:33,240
No.
And in fact, like, yeah, it's

293
00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,560
like it's the gradually then
suddenly kind of thing that

294
00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,640
plays out.
And central banks are are

295
00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:40,760
susceptible to more group think
than than retail in my opinion.

296
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,240
We've we've seen it time and
time again through the 90s.

297
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,080
They all got on board and sold
together and every and every one

298
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,080
of them just sold at the same
time and to the lows of whatever

299
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,840
it was 250 bucks by the end of
the 90s.

300
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,400
And then we've seen the reverse.
I think you're right, You're

301
00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:56,320
right.
It's, you know, a lot of it is

302
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,880
risk management, isn't it?
He's saying we've got too much

303
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,560
of our assets in U.S. dollars
and where else can we put it?

304
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,280
And when you look at it that
way, there's not many places you

305
00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,720
can put it, right?
So, so gold really stands out.

306
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:07,720
So that's what we're looking to
do.

307
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:12,600
But I think in this day and age,
you know, the question is, you

308
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:16,160
know, should you be holding
stockpiles of copper, for

309
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:20,160
example, because it's very hard,
You know, as far as a value

310
00:15:20,160 --> 00:15:23,040
proposition over the next 50
years, it looks pretty

311
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:24,840
compelling.
So I I think there is an

312
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:30,120
argument to say, you know, hard
commodities will be recognized

313
00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,560
for their sort of intrinsic
value, which hasn't really been

314
00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,720
a factor.
The metal content of the 20 cent

315
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,600
Australian coin or the nickels
in in the US are yeah, I I think

316
00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:44,120
they're at par or above par now.
So hoard, hoard your coins.

317
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,160
Yeah, Dave, advice from me.
If you if you've got any left

318
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:47,800
melt.
Them down.

319
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:49,960
Yeah.
So, yeah, on on that segue,

320
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:51,960
let's jump into copper.
Copper's been a really

321
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:56,120
interesting place that's also up
25 odd percent through to to

322
00:15:56,120 --> 00:16:00,160
where we are like year to date.
And we are talking about mine

323
00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:06,040
closures and you know, guidance
revisions in Chile, in Peru, in

324
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,280
Indonesia, in the DRC, in every
sort of corner of the world.

325
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,960
You've got the, the, the
smelting and refining market

326
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,560
tightening and you know, ebbing
and flowing as well.

327
00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,720
So it's a super interesting
space and I think the the

328
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,040
sentiment there is as kind of
constructive as I've seen it in

329
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,920
in the the recent history.
So how, how do you kind of feel

330
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:27,560
about that?
How do you position yourself in

331
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,240
in light of that sort of
feeling?

332
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,480
Yeah.
Look, copper in our fund, it's

333
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,480
our biggest single commodity
exposure.

334
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,360
It's about 30% of the fund.
So you know, we're we're very

335
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,320
bullish on the outlook there and
that's because a number of

336
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,240
factors.
Firstly, it's a big market.

337
00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,200
You're talking 25,000,000 tons
per annum.

338
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,920
China's obviously you know a big
buyer of copper, but it's not a,

339
00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:54,080
a dominant and influential, you
know, it doesn't set the price.

340
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,800
So, so it's a big market and,
and operates effectively which

341
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:01,680
which is good.
If you look on the demand side,

342
00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:03,440
you've got a whole lot of demand
drivers.

343
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,480
You've got the normal sort of
industrial growth, you've got

344
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,280
data centres, you've got
defence, et cetera.

345
00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:13,520
So there's a whole range of, of,
of demand.

346
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,720
And then on the supply side, as
you're saying, you've got 40% of

347
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:21,480
production coming out of Chile
and Peru and they're subject to

348
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,440
social unrest and, and, and
issues around, you know,

349
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,880
production curtailments.
You've got production coming out

350
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,840
of Africa, which we've seen
recently where there's been some

351
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,200
issues.
So you've got sort of strong

352
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:39,400
demand and constraint supply
which which bodes really well.

353
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,640
So we we like it.
Yeah, Yeah.

354
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,800
It's the, there's a lot to like
and I mean there's, there's been

355
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,240
a lot to like about copper for
for quite some time, but it

356
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,640
does, it does feel as if things
are moving in the right

357
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,920
direction there.
If we, if we jump into the, the

358
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:58,000
quarterly reports starting with
a copperish name developed,

359
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,600
that's an interesting one.
You've held that in, in the

360
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,120
past.
They are ramping up at Woodlawn.

361
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,920
They are talking about nameplate
there by March 2026.

362
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:08,640
Recoveries are sort of
improving.

363
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,480
You know, there was a bit kind
of fraught at at the ramp up

364
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,880
kind of stage and then they're
talking about the the Katelands,

365
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,960
which is going to be the
honeypot for the first kind of

366
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:17,920
couple years.
But how are you thinking about

367
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:19,120
it?
How you positioned in it at the

368
00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:20,440
moment?
Yeah.

369
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:24,520
So, so we see it's a stock where
you probably don't want to just

370
00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:27,040
sit and halt.
So, you know, we've been in and

371
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,000
out of it a bit.
We've been buying a bit more

372
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,200
recently, particularly after the
quarterly which the the market

373
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:37,520
sort of had some concerns with.
The way we look at it is it's a

374
00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:39,800
Woodlawn is a project in ramp
up.

375
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,480
I think you've got to evaluate
it on how it goes in the March

376
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,480
quarter.
But you're right the Caitlin's

377
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,800
you know kicks in then grades
will be good and we think

378
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:50,600
that'll sort of lead to every
rating.

379
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:55,400
You've obviously got Sulphur
Springs going through the, you

380
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:59,400
know, the final stages of of
assessment with the FID probably

381
00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:04,120
mid next year if you want to
back one guy in resources, I

382
00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:07,680
think it's Bill.
So we're really bullish on the

383
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:13,120
story and it's now moved into
our top five holdings and we'll

384
00:19:13,120 --> 00:19:15,760
probably continue to chip away
and and add to that.

385
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,080
I'm, I'm really curious about
your comment about it, it not

386
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,080
being 1 you kind of hold for,
for the long term there, Dave

387
00:19:21,120 --> 00:19:25,400
is, is that because the assets
aren't, you know, first quartile

388
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,080
or where do you kind of come
from when you say this?

389
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:30,840
It's more market sentiment.
So what you tend to see is the

390
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:36,720
price can move up above where we
would assess as reasonable value

391
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,240
just on momentum.
And, and so often in those

392
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,680
situations, we'll take some
profits and then come back in.

393
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,520
But the, the way we kind of more
generally look at how we, how we

394
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,760
assess companies is we kind of
have an investable universe,

395
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,520
right?
And some, sometimes we might

396
00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,520
sell those companies and
sometimes we might be buying

397
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,440
those companies.
But ultimately they've kind of

398
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,720
kicked all the boxes as far as
something that we want to own

399
00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:02,840
and and develop certainly in
that box.

400
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,760
It's just that sometimes from
the valuation perspective, it

401
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,520
can get overpriced.
And and as I think we're seeing

402
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,200
now, sometimes it gets oversold.
And so that's where we want to

403
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,760
be able to come in.
There's there's a, there's a bit

404
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:19,800
of a bit of activity that is a
is about in the in the copper

405
00:20:20,120 --> 00:20:22,000
space.
Like, you know, there are deals

406
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,080
that can be done.
And, and we know that develop is

407
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,080
a, you know, built Bill in
particular is a guy that does

408
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:29,720
deals, yeah, creates value with
deals.

409
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,840
Do you think, do you think that
deals are a big part of the

410
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,840
agenda here, a big part of the
reason to own the stock?

411
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:38,760
Do you kind of just think that
that inevitably they'll be able

412
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,840
to, to, to out manoeuvre or
find, find a way to become, you

413
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,680
know, operator and owner of a
very worthy copper project

414
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,800
that's better than anything in
their portfolio right now?

415
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,240
Look, I think I'd like to think
so, yeah.

416
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:54,480
You know, I think the
proposition at the moment is you

417
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,080
get Woodlawn up and operating,
you get Sulphur Springs up and

418
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,680
operating at the levels that
they're, you know, at they're

419
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,120
forecasting along with their
services business, which I think

420
00:21:03,120 --> 00:21:06,600
will continue to grow.
They're generating a lot of free

421
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:07,880
cash.
And then the question is, well,

422
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,480
what are they going to do with
that free cash?

423
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,560
And I think there's a number of
probably second tier assets

424
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,680
across Australia that could come
on the on the radar, which they

425
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,720
could perhaps manage and, and
develop better than than others.

426
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,640
So, so let's see what happens
there.

427
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,520
But you know, I think they got a
lot on their plate.

428
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,280
If they deliver on these assets,
they're in really good shape.

429
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,280
But it's, you know, as we've
seen with with Northern Star,

430
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,000
he's not going to sit still for
too long.

431
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,120
It's a compelling proposition
for like even even if the bite

432
00:21:38,120 --> 00:21:41,800
size of an asset is seemingly,
you know, insurmountable for,

433
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,960
for developed stand alone, then
then it must be a compelling

434
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,960
proposition to, to think of them
as a partnering option in some

435
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,280
way, shape or form to, to get
there.

436
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,400
Because because you can, you can
pop in an underground operator

437
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,640
who, who, who might be able to
deliver operational improvement

438
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,880
versus what you know what's in
the model from the vendor at

439
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,920
that point in time.
Well, I, I, I think you're

440
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,280
entirely right.
The, the other factor is, you

441
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:07,040
know, the, the investor base is
looking, is really crying out

442
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:10,320
for some alternative copper
investments and Sandfire's done

443
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,600
a incredible job, but it's
priced like a global major,

444
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,920
right?
So, so I think you know, there's

445
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,320
a space that develop, can grow
into and and build, build

446
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,400
investor support.
Yeah, do you I, I know you can

447
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,120
buy international stocks, but do
you do on the ACEX?

448
00:22:29,120 --> 00:22:31,880
Do you own any Merrimacker or
any any capstone?

449
00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:34,240
If not, why not?
We own a little bit of

450
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:38,320
Merrimacker and I kind of like
the project, but again value

451
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,840
wise it's, you know, it's not
compelling.

452
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:45,720
We've owned capstone in the past
and and similarly I think

453
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,840
there's probably better ways to
play it.

454
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,880
We, we do invest globally as as
well.

455
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,440
We in, in the natural Resources
fund, we're gonna have 25% of

456
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:56,240
the fund in internationals.
So we've owned, we own Anglo,

457
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,800
we've owned tech and we own
Ivanhoe.

458
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:03,280
And what I really like about the
copper space is really alluding

459
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:04,760
to what we're talking about
before.

460
00:23:05,120 --> 00:23:10,200
I'm looking to have big
positions in the copper groups

461
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,120
that have big copper endowments,
right.

462
00:23:12,120 --> 00:23:15,240
So it's not just, you know, can
they produce copper for five

463
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:18,200
years, it's can they produce
copper for 20 to 50 years.

464
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,320
I think those assets are going
to be hugely valuable in the

465
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:23,960
future.
I don't think that strategic

466
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:29,360
value is really factored in you.
Ivanhoe's rebounding and yeah,

467
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,000
catch at the tailwinds of
commodity price then yeah, yeah,

468
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:34,880
yeah.
It's a compelling thesis.

469
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,560
Yeah.
Let's let's move on to Ramilis.

470
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,760
They yeah, they they, they came
out with a five year plan, JD.

471
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,400
It did.
So if we, if we look back

472
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,760
briefly, $700 million in free
cash flow, obviously there was a

473
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,560
lot of things going right and
and the rest of it.

474
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,360
But that's what they did in in
the year gone.

475
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,560
And they came out with a a
pretty highly anticipated five

476
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,320
year plan that would see them
sort of go from 200 ish 1000 oz

477
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:03,520
per annum getting up to 500,000
in five years time as Rebecca

478
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,600
Rowe comes online.
So we saw the numbers for for

479
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:10,440
Rebecca Rowe, which would come
on start construction like 27

480
00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:15,360
come online that the year after
as well as a early peek into the

481
00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:19,120
numbers at never never talking
about sort of putting putting

482
00:24:19,120 --> 00:24:21,400
the dirt through the mount
magnet hub there.

483
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,960
So it's kind of taking the the
shape that we we think the

484
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,200
company will will be in three to
four to five years time and

485
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,440
beyond.
Never never first reserve came

486
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:35,880
out 1.6 million oz at 7.3g.
So obviously what they what they

487
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,640
paid for there.
Also talking about scaling up

488
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,080
mount magnet to 4.3 million tons
on the on the back of just

489
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,880
keeping the Dagranga plant a bit
cold there for, for the interim

490
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,640
period.
So a lot to kind of dig into

491
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,760
here.
The the market didn't like it.

492
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,000
It came on a day when when the
Goldies were getting sold off,

493
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,880
but they got they got a bit
beaten up on on the back of

494
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,280
this.
And yeah, curious to to hear,

495
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,560
Dave, how how you were sort of
thinking about this one in in

496
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,720
the lead up to it, how you sort
of judge the the announcement

497
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,360
that came out And yeah, any kind
of Nuggets in there you think

498
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,880
people might have glossed over?
So it's interesting, Dave, like

499
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,680
like the all of that stuff with
Remelius and and and Dalgaranga,

500
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,440
Dalgaranga, it's well never,
never that the PFS that they put

501
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:21,480
out, it's underground.
What do you know that you need

502
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,600
with underground?
You need support.

503
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,200
You need, you need ground
support.

504
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,560
I didn't even I didn't even have
to give you a clue on that one.

505
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:33,000
Who Who provides the best ground
support in the industries, bar

506
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,600
none?
I'll tell you.

507
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,520
You don't have to know.
Sandvik Ground Support There is

508
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,320
only one name you need to know
in the ground support industry.

509
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,720
Everyone out there in the
Australian and the global mining

510
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,840
community knows Sandvik Ground
Support are the Champions at

511
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:49,040
ground support.
They don't.

512
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:50,320
That's not the only name they
need to know.

513
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,360
They need to know Derek Herd's
name as well, mate.

514
00:25:52,360 --> 00:25:54,840
Because you just give Derek
Derek Herd a call.

515
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:56,960
Yep, because Sandvik ground
support is the best.

516
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,600
We did the QA QC, we went out to
Qdao.

517
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,560
We saw all the products being
galvanized being made.

518
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,040
We saw team hard at work,
Australian made servicing the WA

519
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,640
industry here specifically and
they're in every other corner of

520
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,280
the world.
And we know they're working hard

521
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,760
at R&D over in just outside of
Stockholm as well.

522
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:16,400
So just keeping the mining
industry alive.

523
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:17,720
Go Sandvik.
Go Sandvik.

524
00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:22,080
Yeah, a couple of things.
So I think the quarterly was was

525
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:28,080
a little disappointing on really
around the grade on on Penny and

526
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:32,920
Q and I think rolling out it got
yeah, it got sold off a bit on

527
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:34,760
that.
I think the five year plan

528
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,160
though was probably better than
expectations.

529
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,800
You know, the the challenge that
the group has is, is it's got a

530
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:45,440
couple of flat years until it
does the CapEx brings never,

531
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:47,760
never on and and and production
then ramps up.

532
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,120
But you know, you look out to
2030, you got an asset that's

533
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,920
or, or a business that's been
generating 500,000 ounces.

534
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,040
So ultimately it's an asset, you
want to own it.

535
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:01,760
The one thing that separates
Remilius from most companies in

536
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:05,920
the gold sector is, is the
management of board a very good

537
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:09,360
custodians of cash, right?
It's all about generating free

538
00:27:09,360 --> 00:27:11,840
cash and doing something
sensible with it.

539
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,960
And, and I think that's, that's
a really strong thing.

540
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,320
If you look at Remilius,
historically, it hasn't had a

541
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,600
mine life to really get rated as
a, as a major, but I think it's

542
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,120
going to have that now.
So the question for me is, is

543
00:27:28,120 --> 00:27:30,960
when do you, when do you, when
do you own this?

544
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:32,480
And you probably want to own a
little bit now.

545
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,960
We don't own it at at this
point, but ultimately it's going

546
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:38,960
to be a leader in the sector for
a long period of time.

547
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,040
There was a punchy comment in
there that I saw calling out the

548
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,640
all in sustaining cost would be
mostly below 2000 bucks, unlike

549
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,880
peers which are closer to $2800.
But a couple of names in mind.

550
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,240
Yeah, we can leave that one
there.

551
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,000
Trev, what what did you think of
the the five year plan?

552
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,720
Yeah, like I think yeah, yeah,
you're right in your your

553
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,880
analysis of the company and and
I love the way they keep

554
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,680
themselves accountable by but
always, you know, showing

555
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,440
shareholders.
Here's what we we paid for an

556
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,200
asset, here's the amount of
development CapEx we put in to

557
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:09,760
bring online.
And by the way, today here's the

558
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,440
free cash flow that asset has
generated and then we sold it

559
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,000
or, or we kept it still
producing.

560
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,280
Now there's there's a big things
in that portfolio that I kind of

561
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,400
get to pay pay dividends because
they're they're being developed

562
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,560
and that was part of the five
year plan is is obviously

563
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,400
Spartan and Rebecca Row on
Rebecca Row.

564
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,120
So they're called they're called
FID at at Rebecca Row.

565
00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:33,880
Their base case is a 4500 Aussie
dollar gold price.

566
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:38,080
That's that's $340 million
upfront capital and that that'll

567
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,160
give them a $692 million post
tax MPV.

568
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,680
So if you chop, chop 500 bucks
off of that assumed gold price,

569
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,960
it's it's a pretty, pretty,
pretty something like it's

570
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,600
pretty ugly.
MPV yeah, yes, body's $6000 an

571
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,280
ounce right, Right now. 12
months ago though, it was $4000

572
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:55,840
an ounce.
So why do I point that out?

573
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,360
I think, I think in general,
like the gold miners are like

574
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,560
the corporate, you know, the
corporates, the BD teams,

575
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,840
they're gun shy about about
buying things.

576
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,160
You know, they don't, they don't
want to assume a gold price

577
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,960
that's too, too bullish and then
and then overpay for something

578
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,080
in the good times.
And here you've got Remelius

579
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:19,600
assuming, you know, calling FID
on on an internal project based

580
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,400
on a $4500 gold price.
Interesting.

581
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,000
There's some food for thought on
on that.

582
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,720
You know, the, the producers,
you know, one by one are going

583
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,600
to they're going to be lifting
their gold price assumptions in

584
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,880
their own models.
And I think, you know, if it's

585
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:34,720
if it's good enough, if it's a
good enough gold price to

586
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:39,160
justify fib on your own kind of
some projects on capital, then

587
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,760
then it's probably going to be
even more compelling when you

588
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,080
when you run that gold price on
the on the nearby vault on

589
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,080
opportunities or or undeveloped
sort of Oz that can can feed

590
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,720
your meal.
So yeah, I'm waiting for that.

591
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,240
Yeah, I agree.
I reckon the dynamics in the

592
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,480
gold across the gold companies
is really interesting because a

593
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,920
lot of them have a shit load of
cash, right.

594
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,240
You know, like you're talking
hundreds and 500 mil cash or or

595
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:06,560
more.
You know, I think Greyland will

596
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,440
have a billion dollars in cash
by the end of the year and

597
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:10,680
millions have 700 something like
that.

598
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,800
So, so there's cash there.
But if you look at, you know, if

599
00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:18,680
you take the recent quarterlies
as a group and you and you look

600
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:23,280
at the free cash flow that
they've generated the free cash

601
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,120
flow yield and you annualise
that, right, There's not many if

602
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:31,480
you annualise the quarterly free
cash flow into a yield, there's

603
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,680
not many that are yielding over
8% based on the free cash in,

604
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,520
you know, in the recent quarter.
So what that means is equity

605
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,560
prices have rallied very
strongly.

606
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,680
And so the the value proposition
hasn't necessarily improved.

607
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:49,240
So I think that comes to your
point that what do you do from

608
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,640
here?
If you've, if you've got script

609
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,640
that's essentially factoring in
the current gold price and

610
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,840
you've got a lot of cash, you
probably want to be buying

611
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:01,480
stuff, particularly if some of
those development projects

612
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:03,320
represent good value.
And I think there are still a

613
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,440
few out there.
So yeah, it's an interesting

614
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,160
time.
Yeah, on that, on that theme,

615
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,440
you know, like it's always, it's
always interesting comparing

616
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,560
remiliates with West Gold
merchants and neighbors and the

617
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:16,000
like.
And, and even, you know, the two

618
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,320
companies both put out a well
Remili's case, A5 year plan,

619
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,720
West Coast case, a three-year
plan in the same month.

620
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,640
So and West Gold, they, they I
think they brought out in the

621
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:28,120
first of the month, they put out
a decent, decent quarterly this

622
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:29,320
week.
There was, you know, $110

623
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,280
million of cash generation.
They've they've soared, you

624
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,560
know, outperformed phenomenally
the last couple of months.

625
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,880
I think they doubled in the
space of a month at one point

626
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,080
there.
It was kind of crazy and they

627
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,760
they did rally on the back of
their their three-year plan that

628
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,520
they put out there, which was
interesting.

629
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,200
So they they basically, you
know, they show this, there's a

630
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,040
billion dollars of CapEx that
they're going to spend over the

631
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:51,520
next three years there.
Stock went up 11% that day

632
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,280
compared that with Remelius's
five year plan.

633
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,320
And you know, they they they
sold off.

634
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,200
Did I?
How do you, how do you evaluate?

635
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,240
Yeah, West Gold kind of vis a
vis.

636
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:09,240
Yeah, look, I think West Gold
there's if they deliver, they

637
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,120
they're still relatively, you
know, if you look at their

638
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:15,680
production versus market cap,
they're still relatively cheap.

639
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,440
So they're, they're building
credibility.

640
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,320
So they continue to deliver on
their plan.

641
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:25,280
I think they'll continue to get
rewrited because relatively on

642
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,560
their free cash generation
looking I think their free cash

643
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,160
generation or the free cash
yield for financial year 26 is

644
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:35,200
about 12% which you know puts
them among the best.

645
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,920
SO and given that they've also
got mine life, you know that

646
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,680
what that says to me is they
keep, they keep doing what

647
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:45,680
they're saying they're going to
do.

648
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,560
There'll be a rewriting there.
Yeah, the only sustaining cost,

649
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:55,040
I think it went up 200 bucks per
oz in the quarter just score and

650
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:58,320
would have been only about 100
bucks per oz if if it went

651
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,560
further or purchase agreement
dynamics you play with you

652
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:06,480
mentioned, however, are you, are
you, are you concerned by kind

653
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,280
of cost creep with with with a
company like West Gold who,

654
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,840
whose assets it you know, their,
their, their role, their, you

655
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,560
know, their marginal.
The temptation is to, to, to

656
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,800
take a bit more at the edges and
produce more oz.

657
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,800
But costs rise when you when you
do that because, yeah, you know.

658
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:22,880
Exactly.
And and there's always a

659
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,280
temptation to do it when the
gold price is going up because

660
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:27,360
you think, well, the margin's
still still huge.

661
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,360
So you're right.
We're we're, we like to own

662
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,920
lower cost producers across any
commodity and and that's the

663
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:39,560
same in gold.
We'll see if the the discipline

664
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:43,120
can remain across the kind of
board, you know, the OR the the

665
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,920
oil and sustaining cost just
creeps higher and higher and

666
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,640
higher.
So it's a, it's a trend to kind

667
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,400
of watch out for We'll.
Go great lint while we're still

668
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,080
talking about.
Yeah, that's good.

669
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:55,240
Yeah, They're they're they're
they're redeeming themselves

670
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,720
after, after a bit of a, a go
out and seek up.

671
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,360
Did you say JD?
I think they are and like you

672
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:05,160
said, Dave sort of approaching a
billion dollars in cash in due

673
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:09,040
kind of course.
So on the day that bounced up

674
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,360
after the quarterly, how do you
all take it on board?

675
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,600
How do you take on the recovery
since that point in time?

676
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,000
I think that was on the back of
the the last quarterly give or

677
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,600
take so three months and they
have performed super strongly.

678
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,760
I think the share price went
from low fives to to 8 kind of

679
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,400
plus with a with a healthy
tailwind in in the gold price.

680
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,400
But you're a shareholder.
How are you kind of thinking

681
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:32,920
about it now?
Yeah.

682
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,800
Look, we we like it.
We still think it's really one

683
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:40,639
of the standards in the gold
sector, you know, a billion

684
00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:43,360
dollars in cash by the end of
this year, which basically funds

685
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:45,880
the, you know, the entire
transaction that that they did

686
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:50,280
right.
So the exploration work they're

687
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,800
doing at at Telfa suggests that
Telfa is going to be operating

688
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,560
for a long period of time and
have Ron is a cracking asset.

689
00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,000
So we, we thought the market
overdid the sell down on the

690
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:05,840
back of the you know, the grade
in the stockpile and we actually

691
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:07,400
bought more when it when it came
off.

692
00:35:09,240 --> 00:35:11,000
So we see it as a core gold
holding.

693
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:12,280
We think it's one of the best
value there.

694
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,000
And deal with Antipa on the
horizon or not?

695
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,200
I don't think so.
I don't think think they need it

696
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,400
right.
So, and certainly at the, at the

697
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:25,040
valuation of Antipa, you know, I
don't think they'll be, they'll

698
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,840
be going there soon, but but
we'll see.

699
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,640
One to watch, Yeah.
Why don't we wrap through a

700
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,760
couple more quarterlies?
The Linetown is one of the ones

701
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,320
that comes top of my mind.
So I'll give a bit of a synopsis

702
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,520
quickly.
The, the Autons, they mined that

703
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,640
kind of beat expectations and
then you had realized pricing

704
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,800
was perhaps a bit weaker than
expectations.

705
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:47,680
The the open period is coming to
the end of its time and more and

706
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:49,200
more of the tons are coming from
underground.

707
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,240
You've got paste field, biggest
kind of paste field plant in, in

708
00:35:52,240 --> 00:35:55,280
the state churning over.
But they got beaten up on the

709
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,920
back of these results.
So they were down 13%.

710
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:59,520
It was a, it was a pretty bad
day.

711
00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:03,120
Perhaps a couple of questions
about recoveries like there was

712
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,520
a, you know, variability in the
this quarter just gone and that

713
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,640
was partially expected, but
recoveries were below 60%.

714
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:14,360
Company kind of maintains it's,
it's 70% recovery target for for

715
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:18,160
the longer term balance sheet
looking a lot healthier because

716
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:21,120
they did a big, big raise in in
the quarter just gone and they

717
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,160
kind of amended the the Ford
facility as well to buy

718
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,800
themselves more time on on that
front.

719
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:28,520
Yeah.
Curious to hear how you kind of

720
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,360
weigh up whether you're in the
kind of camp of like things are

721
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:34,520
improving and they're getting
closer or you're in the the

722
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,600
other side of that that debate
and thinking they're going to be

723
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,800
a high cost producer.
Look, the the way I look at Line

724
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:45,520
Town is, you know, I think Tony
has done an incredible job of

725
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,440
controlling the controllable,
right.

726
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:50,960
So from an operations
perspective, I don't think you

727
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:54,000
could have asked this project to
Commission and come on streaming

728
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,000
and start production any better
than it could have.

729
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:03,120
So to me, the issue with Lyntown
is 1, the, the, the Splodgeman

730
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,560
price is low, right?
And, and cost production even

731
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:09,880
for Lyntown, which I think will
emerge as a pretty cost

732
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,800
effective producer, but it's,
it's way above where you know,

733
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,720
where they're selling their,
their Splodgeman for.

734
00:37:14,720 --> 00:37:18,320
So, so you got a, a business
that in the medium term is going

735
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,480
to lose money and it doesn't
have a strong balance sheet.

736
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,960
So it's got net debt
notwithstanding it's it's pushed

737
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,640
out the the Ford facility, which
I think was the right thing to

738
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,840
do, but it just means there's
pressure there.

739
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:32,160
So I think we'll come through
one way or another.

740
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:33,960
Whether it has to raise more
equity down the track, who

741
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:35,680
really knows.
It will come down to how quickly

742
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:39,560
spodumene prices recover.
I think it will end up being a

743
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:46,400
really high quality producer at
relatively low cost, but but the

744
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,040
key drive will be just what
happens at the at the commodity

745
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:50,920
level.
What do you make of the, the,

746
00:37:51,240 --> 00:37:53,640
the share price?
It's like tripled in in short

747
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,440
order, you know, that's and, and
they're not the only lithium

748
00:37:56,680 --> 00:37:57,880
producer.
Yeah, exactly.

749
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:02,240
I mean, Pilbara's the same.
You kind of go, you know, the

750
00:38:02,240 --> 00:38:04,720
economics don't kind of stack
up, right.

751
00:38:04,720 --> 00:38:10,760
So the market is arguably could
say Lyntown and and Pilbara are

752
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:15,440
priced as if spod you mean is
at, you know, 13 to $1500 a

753
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:20,200
tonne and it's 800.
So there's a bit built in there

754
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:24,160
right now.
Pilbara is probably the go to

755
00:38:25,240 --> 00:38:27,280
easy way to play lithium.
So I can kind of understand it

756
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,000
from a from a from from that
perspective.

757
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,520
And I think Lyontown is probably
a credit to the way they've gone

758
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:36,200
about doing what they do that
that people will also see that

759
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,040
as a go to in, in the lithium
space.

760
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:42,600
But ultimately, when the
commodity price is below your

761
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,400
cost of production, right, you
gotta be cautious as an

762
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,440
investor.
Speaking of commodity price

763
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,080
below the cost of production, I
don't know if it's reported that

764
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:54,280
way, but yeah, when cash goes
down quarter, quarter, Boss

765
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,760
Energy, they they reported this,
this today, but that's what

766
00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:59,960
we're recording.
JD, what'd you think of the?

767
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,080
Quarterly, well, good day to to
report to be a uranium company

768
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,840
on the back of an $80 billion
government deal in, in the

769
00:39:05,840 --> 00:39:07,880
States.
So I think when I looked the

770
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:11,920
stock was up 17 percent, 16%.
They're they're flying.

771
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,840
One of the things like we
noticed kind of straight away is

772
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:17,760
they're not just reporting what
the cash position is.

773
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,240
We know they've got inventories,
but cash inventories,

774
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:24,480
investments and receivables, it
sort of feels like it's getting

775
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,840
a bit long in the tooth there
when you add in every, every

776
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,160
kind of column.
But not payables mate.

777
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:31,760
Well, that would that would make
it look bad.

778
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,960
But on an operation side, you've
got column four commissioning,

779
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,360
you've got new well fields being
brought online.

780
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,840
One of the details I kind of
noticed is that the PLSIX tenor

781
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,520
kind of dipped.
So it went from 88 to to 81 in,

782
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,240
in the most recent quarter,
which is kind of interesting

783
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,360
with new well fields coming
online there.

784
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:57,080
Yeah, drums production was was
up a bit, but yeah, IX

785
00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,760
production was down 20,000 tons.
So we're talking figures just

786
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,720
below 400,000 odd tons there.
And I think most importantly

787
00:40:04,720 --> 00:40:08,480
what people are laser focused on
is that work has started,

788
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,600
drilling has started properly
delineating resources at the

789
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:16,800
kind of contentious, if you like
deposits they've got out there.

790
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,080
He's kind of Kalkuru and others.
And you've got the honeymoon

791
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,440
review due this quarter, so the
December quarter and that is

792
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,800
what a lot of people are fixated
on when, when they came out with

793
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,600
that announcement, the stock
just about halved on, on the

794
00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:33,040
back of this.
So positives and negatives

795
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:33,920
there.
How, how are you kind of

796
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,000
weighing it?
How do you how do you think

797
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:38,240
about this and the, the the
restart projects more broadly

798
00:40:38,240 --> 00:40:40,360
and uranium landscape on the
ASX, Dave?

799
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:45,720
Yeah, I don't think we've owned
an ASX listed uranium stock.

800
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,680
And the problem I see is this is
that there's, you know, in

801
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,240
Australia in particular, but
globally there's not many

802
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:56,760
uranium stocks of any size or
scale.

803
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:01,360
And as interest in the sector
has increased, you've had a lot

804
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,960
of money flowing in and and
prices and valuations have been

805
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:09,320
pushed up.
So I just don't see the value

806
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:13,480
proposition for a lot of these
companies because basically

807
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,800
they're, they're relatively
small scale, they're relatively

808
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,760
high cost.
And until you get higher uranium

809
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:25,280
prices, you know, it's just not
a compelling value proposition.

810
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,760
So, you know, it's a bit like
the discussion we're just having

811
00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:31,920
that you need this, you need
the, the commodity price to be

812
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,120
at higher levels to kind of gain
some interest.

813
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:38,280
But I think there's better value
in, you know, in a, in a next

814
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,040
Gen.
Or or some of the developers or

815
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:46,880
Denison in Canada and and some
of the the the emerging

816
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,720
developers out of Canada.
Do you have like a rule of thumb

817
00:41:49,720 --> 00:41:52,360
or a way of thinking about
restart projects in general?

818
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,600
Are you pretty open minded when
it when it kind of comes to it?

819
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,320
I think you'll be careful
depending on the type of

820
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,240
project, but you know, boss is a
good example of, of, of what can

821
00:42:02,240 --> 00:42:04,280
go wrong.
So you just need to be you.

822
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,520
You need to be really careful
and you don't wanna be paying a

823
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,880
premium for them as if it's all
gonna go right.

824
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,280
I think you gotta assume there's
gonna be ramp up and there's

825
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:13,760
gonna be a few hurdles along the
way.

826
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:21,040
Yeah, I think, I think, I think
trying to figure out, I think

827
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,720
it's going to get better from
here or they get worse before

828
00:42:23,720 --> 00:42:26,440
they get better for boss and
all.

829
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:30,840
The answer to that question kind
of lies in in the geology of

830
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,720
East Kilkaroo.
They're still producing.

831
00:42:33,720 --> 00:42:37,720
I mean, you know, the uranium
right now is still dominantly

832
00:42:37,720 --> 00:42:40,680
coming from from honeymoon where
the grades are much, much, much

833
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,200
higher than E Kilkaroo.
In fact between two and three

834
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,880
times higher in the you know, in
the early kind of yeah, resource

835
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,800
resource models that were more
resource statements that were

836
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:52,600
put to market.
So, yeah.

837
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,560
So that the extent that these
calculator can string together

838
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,240
and you can and you can
economically extract, you know,

839
00:42:58,240 --> 00:43:01,920
much lower grade there and they
have to put in more, more wells

840
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,360
to do all of that reagents
involved in everything.

841
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,280
Like what uranium price does it
take for that to make positive

842
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:10,760
cash flow?
Yeah, because that might, it

843
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,520
might be an inconceivable
uranium price.

844
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,960
When, when, when the homemade
resource is all gone.

845
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,880
And if that's the case, then
then things get worse before

846
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,440
they get better.
Well, I, I think you're right.

847
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,920
You know, the, the issue, the
issue that I had with the sector

848
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:28,880
is it wasn't pricing for the
risk, right.

849
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:33,240
So, and obviously boss has come
come back from its peak and, and

850
00:43:33,240 --> 00:43:37,920
it's getting a bit closer.
But if I'm after the, the way I

851
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,760
often look at it is once you've
made a call in commodity, I

852
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,760
think uranium outlook is really
good.

853
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:47,520
Then the last thing you want to
do is make a, a poor stock call,

854
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:51,000
right?
So your first port of call is to

855
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:55,440
look at their high quality
producers or developers and say,

856
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,240
are they that much more
expensive than the second tier

857
00:43:59,240 --> 00:44:01,240
that you know, that I should be
bypassing them.

858
00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:03,720
And I think in uranium there's
there's been better

859
00:44:03,720 --> 00:44:08,200
opportunities than than some of
these local ones.

860
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:10,080
Yeah, I.
Think that's what we said, Dave.

861
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:11,440
Should we jump into some great
control?

862
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,960
Indeed, You know what we do
here, Dave.

863
00:44:14,240 --> 00:44:15,400
Great, great things.
A to F.

864
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,520
Yeah.
So we're, we're talking

865
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:19,760
corporate moves, government
policy.

866
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,160
We've got a few of of the above
here.

867
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,240
And yeah, we can just sort of
rotate through them fairly

868
00:44:25,240 --> 00:44:26,920
quickly.
Let's start with Lovato Trev.

869
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,280
Yes, mate.
So Lovato, they, they, they came

870
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,560
out in the week effectively
saying that they've, they've

871
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:37,600
rejected the, the, the, the non
binding offer put, you know,

872
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,160
given to them by US Antimony
Corp.

873
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,440
Now US Antimony Corp proposed to
to an all script transaction

874
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:47,640
after, you know, basically
buying a bunch of Love auto

875
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:52,000
shares on market the week prior
up to the Friday at a, you know,

876
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,480
at a merger ratio that you know,
was probably probably

877
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:57,440
marginally, marginally higher
than the highest price that they

878
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,080
paid at the point at which they
announced it.

879
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:04,600
Now Lovato's yes, like shares
upon upon revelation of this,

880
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:06,840
we've obviously showed up and
and US and Trinity Corp, as

881
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:09,480
you'd expect have have come down
a fair bit.

882
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:14,480
Lovato's rejected the bid and it
looks like we're, we're in for,

883
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,800
you know, an entertaining way
that things play out.

884
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:20,760
Underpinning all of This Is Us
antimony corps need to, to

885
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:23,680
backfill supply.
They've got, you know, they've

886
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,120
got a pretty hefty contract to,
to, to deliver antimony from the

887
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:31,160
US government and, and they're,
they're keen to, to source that

888
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:32,840
from all, all parts of the
globe.

889
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:37,360
In, in Lavato's case, they
actually entered an, an offtake

890
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,520
with, with Wojan.
I think it was, I think it was

891
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:43,840
last year, late last year.
But from the, from the bit of

892
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:46,040
detail we can actually see about
that waging off take, it looks

893
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,560
like Lovato still has some
ability to influence where the

894
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,440
final destination of of the
product is, even though waging

895
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,640
has kind of marketing rights.
So US and Timony Corp must have

896
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,320
taken the view that they can
actually still influence the

897
00:45:58,320 --> 00:45:59,960
final destination.
And that is that is the

898
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,920
proposition of why Lovato is a,
a takeover target.

899
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:04,200
What have you made of this one,
Dave?

900
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:08,000
Yeah, look, I think it comes
down to time and money, doesn't

901
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:10,120
it?
So, So I think Lovato has done

902
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,040
the right thing.
They've said, you know, they're

903
00:46:13,040 --> 00:46:15,800
batting them away and they know
that, you know, that US and

904
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,600
Timmy are committed, right?
They're a shareholder and and

905
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,160
then they, you know, they, they
need the asset.

906
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:23,880
So I think from a rating, I'll
give them AAB.

907
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:28,160
They're doing what they you'd
expect them to do, but

908
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:31,880
ultimately you'd expect a deal
be done, a price will be set

909
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,720
and, and it'll happen.
Yeah.

910
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,960
Trading, trading substantially
above the the terms of the

911
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,920
initial offer right now.
So the market's pricing and the

912
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,160
fact that an uplift is is on its
way.

913
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:47,840
And yeah, given that though the
somewhat hostile nature of the

914
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:53,320
the yeah, the buy the the stake
and, and, and announcing it and

915
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:57,120
the likes, yeah, wouldn't,
wouldn't be surprised to to see

916
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:58,960
see an uplift here in an
eventual deal.

917
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:03,080
But the shareholders, it might
be hard to keep happy.

918
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,080
Dave, I've noticed this about
the Antimony shareholders.

919
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,800
They they are, yeah.
I don't know what price will be

920
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,000
the right price for them.
So there might be a bit of work

921
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,760
to get them on site for, for
TBD.

922
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:18,960
But I'll give this, I'll give it
AB like, yeah, I mean, I've

923
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,520
already paid sweet stuff all for
this asset and in no time it is

924
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:27,520
they're copping, you know, a
very credible deal with a, you

925
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,320
know, hundreds and hundreds of
millions of dollars.

926
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:32,800
It's.
It's remarkable.

927
00:47:33,240 --> 00:47:34,640
I'll give it an, a, a, a for
entertainment.

928
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:39,000
I think a because like you guys
sort of alluded to and kind of

929
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:43,520
said there, they, you know, the
counterparty is trying to back

930
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,920
to value.
So they're getting paid in

931
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:46,920
shares.
You want to make sure they're

932
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,600
pretty, pretty well kind of
priced and they're just doing

933
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:50,920
the right thing by their
shareholders.

934
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:55,640
And yeah, that aggressive buying
on on market was interesting to

935
00:47:55,720 --> 00:47:59,520
to say the least from USAC.
So keen to say we where this one

936
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,280
goes and how love Otto can kind
of maximize value and and cement

937
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,160
value for for their
shareholders.

938
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:08,880
Next one is a lithium related
story.

939
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:11,760
So we're going to talk about
Lion Town and we're going to

940
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,040
talk about Pilbara here.
So the context is the price

941
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:18,720
floors that we've spoken a fair
bit about in a variety of

942
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:23,000
critical minerals.
So you had Dale Henderson,

943
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,960
obviously he runs PLS being
quizzed as well as Tony

944
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,960
Ottaviano.
And yeah, they're talking about

945
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,800
the $1.2 billion strategic
reserve and what a kind of price

946
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,120
floor in the the lithium world
would look like in the

947
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,000
implications that would come off
the back of that.

948
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:41,080
So I think Dale handled this
pretty, pretty deftly and very

949
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,320
kind of diplomatically.
He was sort of saying things to

950
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,000
the tune of if deployed in the
right way, these could be

951
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,040
positive, but equally there
could be bad unintended

952
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,880
consequences.
The concern people have in this

953
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,120
regard is that the wrong
projects get supported.

954
00:48:54,680 --> 00:48:58,560
And I think you know, the people
being concerned there is is Dale

955
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:03,360
and I think he's you know that
that is the most pressing way

956
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,640
you're going to get Dale to say
it's a pretty stupid idea.

957
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,520
He's never going to come out and
say it just like that.

958
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:12,920
And then similar words from
Tony, although he kind of caged

959
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,600
at saying we're happy with the
National Reconstruction Fund and

960
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,320
the way that, that invests, we
just don't want price floors,

961
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:23,520
which is, you know, I, I, I
don't know how you can hold both

962
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:26,200
those 2 views in your head at
the same time, unless somebody's

963
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,640
just bought into your capital
raise a few months ago and you,

964
00:49:29,040 --> 00:49:30,360
you want to kind of say it that
way.

965
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:35,160
On that point, our taxpayer
money is now up 40 odd percent

966
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,360
since the capital raise.
So I'm all for the fund cashing

967
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,000
out that they've done it.
Take it off the table.

968
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,800
That's a fantastic win in the
space of a few weeks.

969
00:49:43,800 --> 00:49:47,760
And to, to wrap a kind of grade
around all of this, I would give

970
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,120
it an A again and just kind of
be generous because I like the

971
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,200
public talking down of price
floors.

972
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:56,040
I think the bad and unintended
consequences are very real and

973
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:58,880
they can distort the market.
Dave, what do you think?

974
00:49:59,800 --> 00:50:01,360
Yeah, look, I, I think you're
right.

975
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:05,000
I'd give them an A or AB and for
similar reasons.

976
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,600
You know, I think when when
governments start to get

977
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,520
involved in business, often it
doesn't end well.

978
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:14,120
And you know, I think we've
talked before, you know,

979
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:18,200
governments as allocated as a
capital, I'm not sure you want

980
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,480
to be dependent on, on that and
have an industry built around

981
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:24,120
that.
And again, as I think you guys

982
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,800
have talked numerous times
through you, you know, through

983
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:30,080
you through your previous
episodes, you know, what I'd

984
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,720
like to see governments focus on
is, is delivering cheaper

985
00:50:33,720 --> 00:50:39,280
energy, delivering, you know, a
greater volume of skilled work

986
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,960
workers and, and faster
approvals.

987
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,920
And any distraction from that is
a distraction, right?

988
00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:47,920
If they do that, they get those
three things right, the mining

989
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:51,240
industry in Australia will boom.
And it's all very well to talk

990
00:50:51,240 --> 00:50:55,400
about stockpiles and, and floor
prices and all that, but you

991
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,240
know, they're, they're around
the periphery.

992
00:50:57,240 --> 00:51:00,120
The key is deal with the
fundamentals first.

993
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:02,880
I, I should just add in quickly
before you jump in, Trev, that

994
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,640
Dale did talk up shared
infrastructure as well, to your

995
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:08,400
point there, yeah.
Yeah, the infrastructure is the

996
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:11,920
the lower hanging fruit, Yeah.
And and energy is even lower

997
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,760
hanging fruit really that's
that's a political will thing.

998
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:19,920
Yeah, yeah.
Like we like, we are not

999
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:23,560
competitive like, you know, on,
on in a variety of different

1000
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,640
areas unless we were blessed
geologically by, by having, you

1001
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:30,760
know, the world's best iron ore.
This is, this is not a

1002
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,280
competitive place to, to produce
from an OpEx perspective.

1003
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:35,680
And you know, things need to be
done about that.

1004
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:37,040
There's there's some easy things
to do.

1005
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,560
Glad, glad we don't have any
price for.

1006
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:43,080
So I, I would have, yeah, maybe
sought citizenship somewhere

1007
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:44,800
else if we, if we, if we went
there.

1008
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:48,120
But anyway, I won't hold my
breath because we might get that

1009
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,640
in other commodities.
Well, and maybe on rare earths,

1010
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,240
it's one where where something
in place makes more sense than

1011
00:51:54,240 --> 00:51:56,400
most commodities, but but we'll
see, yeah.

1012
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,800
Yeah.
I, I, I think in the lithium

1013
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,160
case specifically, it's, it's
not one that makes sense.

1014
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:02,640
I think we're, we're kind of in
agreeance there.

1015
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:06,040
Just it's, it's a different kind
of ball game there.

1016
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:08,240
Let's jump into sweet and sour
deal.

1017
00:52:08,240 --> 00:52:09,600
We can run through a bunch of
these.

1018
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:13,080
We've got capital raisings,
we've got deals and and sales.

1019
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:17,360
We've got government ish support
being lent as well.

1020
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:21,800
Trev, you picked upon Albemarle
selling their Catalyst business

1021
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,320
earlier this week.
So they agreed to sell

1022
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,360
controlling stake in Kitchen
Corps refining Catalyst

1023
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,120
Solutions business to KPS
Capital Partners and it's 50%

1024
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:34,080
interest in Eurocat joint
venture to Accents SA.

1025
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:38,160
So generating together about US
$660 million in proceeds.

1026
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:41,120
Yeah.
So this is sweet deal Saudi.

1027
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:45,000
Well, my take is Albemarle.
They they have the worst balance

1028
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,360
sheet in the sector like it is.
Yeah #1 Albemarle #2 Albemarle

1029
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:54,040
#3 Albemarle for most like the
worst balance sheet.

1030
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:58,800
And, and, and that's been an, an
own goal of their, their own.

1031
00:52:58,800 --> 00:53:01,760
Like would they've, they've sold
these if they didn't have to.

1032
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,360
I don't know, like I like, I
don't actually know the quality

1033
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,240
of these businesses, but I do
know how bad their balance sheet

1034
00:53:07,240 --> 00:53:09,560
is.
And I guess they might not have

1035
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:12,640
sold them if their balance sheet
were not in the situation it is.

1036
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:17,280
So I think it's a sour deal, but
their hand is forced and and

1037
00:53:17,280 --> 00:53:19,480
that's their own, you know,
they've got their own hubris to

1038
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:21,720
blame for that.
Yeah, I, I agree.

1039
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:26,640
And again, I don't know the
catalyst asset that well, but

1040
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,960
you'd suggest the only reason
they're selling it is because

1041
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:30,680
because of the debt pressures
they've got?

1042
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:34,080
Yeah, sour on long term thinking
Coronado.

1043
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:38,240
So they announced a, an
arrangement with Stanwell, who

1044
00:53:38,240 --> 00:53:41,600
is a kind of Queensland
government talking about US

1045
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:46,800
$265,000,000 in debt being
provided, rebate fees being

1046
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:50,280
waived, prepayments being a
possibility of cash dips below a

1047
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:53,320
certain level.
All that is to say, Coronado is

1048
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,480
in a world of pain.
Coal prices are in the gutter

1049
00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:59,080
and they are, you know, looking
under every, every couch and in

1050
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,200
every kind of corner for for
spare cash to, to keep them

1051
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,400
alive.
The more interesting point here

1052
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:08,440
is that it is the government of
of sorts that is, you know,

1053
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:12,080
bailing them out in a sense
because they are a buyer of this

1054
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:17,600
product.
So QLD partly to to blame their

1055
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:20,480
their energy policy for the fact
that they have to do this as as

1056
00:54:20,480 --> 00:54:24,160
a government and write a check
to a coal producer.

1057
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,160
So I think it's a yeah from from
that perspective.

1058
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:29,040
That's how I'm going to look at
it.

1059
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:31,920
I'm going to call it a sour
deal, but you can sort of slice

1060
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:33,520
and dice this one in a few
different ways.

1061
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,680
Have you got thoughts on it?
Yeah, I think it's sour for a

1062
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:38,760
number of different reasons.
I think from a Coronado

1063
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:43,920
perspective, they've probably
having a major shareholder that

1064
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:47,360
didn't want to be diluted means
that they've got too much debt

1065
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:50,960
at a time when the commodity
price is is is low.

1066
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:54,440
So that puts them under a whole
lot of pressure and and hence

1067
00:54:54,440 --> 00:54:57,360
they had to do this deal.
I think it's also sour because

1068
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,200
basically what you had was a
company operating in Queensland

1069
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:04,200
where you had a change in the
royalty regime, which really

1070
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,880
crunches them and leaves them
exposed when the commodity price

1071
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:10,280
is low.
And that's forced them to to

1072
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:14,680
agree to this, this deal, which
which really takes out the

1073
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:15,920
upside.
You know, a lot of people were

1074
00:55:15,920 --> 00:55:19,800
looking at Coronado because the
roll off of the Stanmore

1075
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:25,720
payments, you know, was was 27
and, and that that, you know

1076
00:55:25,720 --> 00:55:28,680
that that uptick was something
like 130,000,000 bucks a year,

1077
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:30,520
right, which really underpins
the value of the business.

1078
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,400
So they've had to give away a
lot.

1079
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:35,040
So I think for a whole lot of
reasons, it's what's.

1080
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:41,560
The what's the the the name of
the collie coal business that

1081
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,600
it's distressed and the very
government just props it up

1082
00:55:44,800 --> 00:55:48,280
every year riding more and more.
Anyway, I feel like it's just

1083
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,080
going that way.
You know, it's not it's not good

1084
00:55:50,080 --> 00:55:53,320
for equity, but like these
things, it just becomes pseudo

1085
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:55,240
nationalized because you need
the power.

1086
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,800
Yeah, I can yeah.
Equity doesn't win, but.

1087
00:55:57,960 --> 00:55:59,400
Amazing how quick things can
turn though.

1088
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,280
Like 2 years ago.
This is a a $2.00 stock, yeah.

1089
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,440
Yeah, yeah.
Perpetua, OH.

1090
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,640
That's his NASDAQ listed
perpetual resources.

1091
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:15,360
They announced US $255,000,000
strategic equity investment from

1092
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:21,040
Agnico Eagle, who tipped in 180
of that, which gave them a 6.5%

1093
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:22,320
stake.
They got warrants there too.

1094
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,440
Plus see JP Morgan's sexy new
security fund.

1095
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:29,960
So 75 million from there is is
is is part of this raise.

1096
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:33,360
Those two parties, both of them
got juicy warrants along with

1097
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:35,280
it.
And then the next day perpetual

1098
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:39,760
raise 78,000,000 more to a
broader audience at A at a

1099
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:43,240
dollar a dollar higher per per
share than the initial deal that

1100
00:56:43,240 --> 00:56:45,720
she was key assets Steve Knight
gold project in central Idaho

1101
00:56:45,720 --> 00:56:48,480
supposed to produce both gold
and and Timony hence the

1102
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:50,920
critical minerals angle here,
Dave.

1103
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,160
So it deals our deal.
Again, I don't I don't know the

1104
00:56:55,160 --> 00:56:58,360
intricacies of it all that much,
but I'd have to say it's a sweet

1105
00:56:58,360 --> 00:57:04,280
deal in that you get a Nico
involved, then I think you're

1106
00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:07,720
doing well.
Why I say sweet deal for

1107
00:57:07,720 --> 00:57:09,800
Perpetua?
I mean they locked in strategic

1108
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:11,960
capital first and raised more on
better terms.

1109
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:17,680
Can I say sale deal for Agnico?
There's not enough upside in it

1110
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:19,800
for him.
Yeah, Agnico's they're they're

1111
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,360
they're a classy minor and
they've got yeah.

1112
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:26,560
Like I can't, I can't, you know,
reality critique their their

1113
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:30,800
capital allocation.
That's that'll be absurd.

1114
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:34,160
But I don't under I don't really
understand a lot of their

1115
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:36,960
strategic stakes in a lot of
different companies and they've

1116
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:42,240
got 90 of them believe it on 90
minority stakes in in yeah, like

1117
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:43,680
in other companies.
Yeah.

1118
00:57:44,600 --> 00:57:46,800
So I do understand most of the
gold ones, but I don't

1119
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,920
understand the non gold ones
that they've got like a lot of

1120
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:53,040
their base metals allocation
have been like dubious or

1121
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:59,280
curious to me.
And then the the this one, yeah,

1122
00:57:59,360 --> 00:58:02,720
like the, it's agnico.
And they're, they're they're

1123
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:05,520
kind of, you know, doing the
Trump pump kind of thing.

1124
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:07,640
I don't know.
They're agnico.

1125
00:58:07,640 --> 00:58:09,080
I'm a podcaster, but I just.
Think.

1126
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:10,960
I just think.
Saudi of Agnico.

1127
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:13,120
Yeah.
Interesting, very interesting

1128
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,440
one.
I like the the JP Morgan

1129
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,200
security fund you mentioned.
I think it's called like the

1130
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:18,840
America First fund or something
like that.

1131
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:21,680
That kind of cracks me up.
Yeah, I'm perpetual.

1132
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:23,720
I think it's a sweet deal.
You got to take the money whilst

1133
00:58:23,720 --> 00:58:26,200
you can, whilst you can get it.
And this is the environment to

1134
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,200
to take it on board.
Really, really kind of

1135
00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,520
fascinating from a, from an
agnico perspective.

1136
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,360
You mentioned the 90 other
stakes they've got, most of them

1137
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,040
are a lot smaller than than this
one.

1138
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,120
This is a a fair bite size for
them to take.

1139
00:58:40,120 --> 00:58:44,680
So yeah, I, I wonder if there's
a kind of you scratch my back,

1140
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:47,880
I'll scratch yours and they get
something kind of decent in

1141
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:51,640
America or something becomes a
bit easier for them for, for

1142
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:54,800
getting this steep night gold
project off the ground.

1143
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:58,560
So we'll see about that one.
Another one with government

1144
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:02,520
involvement.
Mate Arafura the the, the big,

1145
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,800
the the big capital of the world
all in this one deal mate.

1146
00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:10,360
So Arafura raised $475,000,000
in a two chance replacement at

1147
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:17,160
$0.28 per share, 25% discount to
last Hancock Gina giving in 125

1148
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:21,360
million of that and that'll
bring her stake to to about 16%.

1149
00:59:21,680 --> 00:59:25,600
Now Arafura, they say that the
proceeds of this race together

1150
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:29,880
with the 50 million SPP that
they're also doing will complete

1151
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:33,880
the public equity component of
their Nolan's whereas project in

1152
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:38,200
the middle of Australia FID on
Nolan's is expected early next

1153
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:42,560
year and Hatch is the preferred
EPCM of that.

1154
00:59:43,080 --> 00:59:46,400
I'll give my take first.
This is not the final public

1155
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:49,240
equity component of Nolan's sour
deal.

1156
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:51,640
Happy for the hour If you're a
shareholders who've had a had a

1157
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,400
win in recent months but sour
deal.

1158
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:57,840
Yeah, Dave, who, who are you
going to write here and and how

1159
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,200
are you going to write them?
Well, I think if you're rating

1160
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,760
Arafura, it's a sweet deal
because they're capitalizing on

1161
01:00:03,760 --> 01:00:07,840
the market and, and the interest
in aerospace and the fact that

1162
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:11,320
Gina's, you know, really
underpinning the the raise.

1163
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:16,920
I think Gina has a longer term
timeframe and assessment period

1164
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:23,200
than than a lot of investors so.
But I think from a value

1165
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:26,840
proposition as an as a, as a
investor coming in, I think you

1166
01:00:26,840 --> 01:00:29,320
got to be cautious because I
think there's two things that

1167
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:31,960
rare earth projects like this,
the Hard Rock ones in particular

1168
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,240
need.
One is capital and the other is

1169
01:00:34,240 --> 01:00:36,600
expertise.
And if you look at Linus as an

1170
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:40,760
example, took him 20 years to
get them out welled and

1171
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:42,400
processing activities up and
running.

1172
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:45,560
So I think there's risk in the
sector because it's difficult.

1173
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:50,360
So I think how if you have done
the right thing, they've they've

1174
01:00:50,360 --> 01:00:51,880
grabbed the cash while it's been
available.

1175
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:55,560
So, so good on them.
Yeah, similar to how you think

1176
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:57,920
about it Dave, I'm I'm very
cautious about the rare earths

1177
01:00:58,040 --> 01:01:02,080
world and yeah, for that reason
I haven't partaken in the in the

1178
01:01:02,080 --> 01:01:05,280
10 Xing of multiples of these
these stocks around there.

1179
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:09,440
And I think, you know, once we
get to that point in time FRD

1180
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:13,680
construction, we'll really see
what Arafir and Nolan's is is

1181
01:01:13,680 --> 01:01:14,600
all about.
But by.

1182
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:17,640
The rumors, all the news on on
the on the rare air stocks the

1183
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:19,120
last few weeks, have you noticed
that?

1184
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:21,040
Yeah, yeah.
Very much so, yeah.

1185
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:24,680
Yeah.
So I, I think you got a like,

1186
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:26,880
like we sort of said, would I
have tipped into that

1187
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:27,920
capitalizing?
Probably not.

1188
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:30,000
But what what do I kind of know
about it?

1189
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:33,800
I, I think it is interesting
from that perspective and also

1190
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:38,480
the evolution of, of Gina as
the, yeah, the, the kind of

1191
01:01:39,120 --> 01:01:42,440
dominant shareholder and a whole
bunch of rare earth names like

1192
01:01:42,440 --> 01:01:45,920
that is not something I would
have forecasted a few years ago.

1193
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:48,960
And she, like you sort of
rightly say that these aren't

1194
01:01:48,960 --> 01:01:50,040
the biggest checks in the world
for her.

1195
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:53,640
She can think long term about
these things and very curious to

1196
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:58,880
see where where that kind of
evolving dynamic goes and what

1197
01:01:58,880 --> 01:02:00,960
she might look at next.
You know, because it started,

1198
01:02:01,320 --> 01:02:03,760
started with kind of lithium.
Now rare earths where, where

1199
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:05,360
does that kind of portfolio grow
to?

1200
01:02:05,480 --> 01:02:07,520
Yeah.
That's actually an interesting

1201
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:13,760
point on like there, there are
limited like sources of, of

1202
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:17,480
capital that are willing to
write big checks which are

1203
01:02:17,480 --> 01:02:22,480
necessary to progress projects,
you know, and you have to have a

1204
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:25,640
long term time horizon.
We're blessed that our mining

1205
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:29,960
industry has created a number
of, of billionaires who, who,

1206
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:33,600
and some of them are willing to
write checks like that.

1207
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:36,280
So Gina's capital is
tremendously important to the,

1208
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:40,120
to the, you know, the future
prosperity of, of, of the

1209
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:42,920
industry.
But the conditions for that

1210
01:02:42,920 --> 01:02:45,440
capital need, need to be
appropriate for, for her to be

1211
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:49,480
even more interested in, in
investing in Australia.

1212
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:51,800
I do know that, that like, you
know, you look at some of the

1213
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,080
numbers of the, the US
investment she's made lately.

1214
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:58,480
Just yeah, Trump's a lot of the,
the, the, the capital we're

1215
01:02:58,480 --> 01:03:00,400
talking about in, in some of
these positions.

1216
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:02,760
Would love to know what she
thinks of all this government

1217
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:05,520
involvement.
You know she's awfully close to

1218
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:05,680
it.
I.

1219
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:07,640
Think you can research some of
some of her thoughts on

1220
01:03:07,640 --> 01:03:10,960
government?
Involvement as it pertains to to

1221
01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:12,240
some issues, definitely.
Yeah.

1222
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:15,080
All right, Medallion and heiress
to to wrap things up, Trevor, do

1223
01:03:15,120 --> 01:03:16,760
you want to kick us off with
Medallion?

1224
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:20,800
Medallion secured an exclusive
agreement with Traffy for up to

1225
01:03:20,840 --> 01:03:24,480
US $50 million funding via
senior secure prepayment

1226
01:03:24,480 --> 01:03:28,080
facility and a seven-year copper
and gold off take for its

1227
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:31,920
Ravenstorp gold project and
Forestania operations.

1228
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:34,440
My take we don't have all the
details here.

1229
01:03:34,520 --> 01:03:38,160
So we can't we can't like you
know be be precise in in giving

1230
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:40,640
it a sweet deal sale deal.
But I go go out on a limit and

1231
01:03:40,640 --> 01:03:43,520
call it a sweet deal anyway.
The just the quantum, the

1232
01:03:43,520 --> 01:03:45,880
counterparty.
It just reminded me of the AIC

1233
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:49,200
50 million traffic traffic, you
know, facility as well.

1234
01:03:49,200 --> 01:03:52,200
These what you know and and what
is that like?

1235
01:03:52,200 --> 01:03:55,800
What's the common theme here?
Yeah, mine miners and developers

1236
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,760
who are able to fund their their
growth without as much equity

1237
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:03,360
dilution and on OK terms because
spouse is everywhere a desperate

1238
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:05,480
for concentrate traffic.
You're included.

1239
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:06,640
Yes, they make money on the
marketing.

1240
01:04:06,640 --> 01:04:11,040
Yes, they'll be hooks in in the
offtake, but but this is a point

1241
01:04:11,040 --> 01:04:13,960
in time where he was a miner can
actually get some of that upside

1242
01:04:13,960 --> 01:04:17,600
yourself and and and avoid the
dilution and maybe it's actually

1243
01:04:17,600 --> 01:04:19,880
more attractive capital than
project finance.

1244
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:20,960
So good deal.
Sweet deal.

1245
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:23,440
Yeah, Yeah.
Look, I, I, I agree with you.

1246
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:25,880
I think it's a sweet deal.
Obviously, we don't know all the

1247
01:04:25,880 --> 01:04:28,160
terms and conditions attached,
but I think you're right.

1248
01:04:29,760 --> 01:04:32,760
It's better than further equity
dilution and it's probably less

1249
01:04:32,760 --> 01:04:34,600
onerous than a than a debt
facility.

1250
01:04:34,600 --> 01:04:37,360
So it makes sense.
Agreed that the the capital

1251
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:38,840
landscape right now is pretty
competitive.

1252
01:04:38,840 --> 01:04:42,000
So hopefully the the terms are
quite good and on the back of

1253
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:45,160
that sweet deal as well.
Last one to wrap it up, Aries

1254
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:48,440
launched an $85 million capital
raised price to $0.45 a share,

1255
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:51,480
13% discount.
So and what are they using the

1256
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:56,120
funds for to repay debt owed by
major shareholder sold Pats.

1257
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:59,520
So sold Pats, I think they own
31 ish percent of the stock, but

1258
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,880
that, you know, also also a big
lender and sold Pats.

1259
01:05:03,840 --> 01:05:04,960
How did how did all of that
happen?

1260
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:08,760
Well, they, they sold them the
round like assets and yeah, so

1261
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:11,000
so I'm, I'm giving this a sweet
deal.

1262
01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:14,640
Check out the chart of Aris on
the on the focus chart by market

1263
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:16,480
tech that we're we're putting up
right now.

1264
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:21,320
And like the fact that Aries is
a $500 million company just

1265
01:05:21,440 --> 01:05:25,440
crept up on me.
Yeah, it's, it's a, it's A and,

1266
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:28,320
and here we are.
It is raise 100 million while

1267
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:31,240
you can and get, you know,
improve your balance sheet like

1268
01:05:31,280 --> 01:05:34,880
absolutely sweet deal.
Yeah, I, I, I tend to agree.

1269
01:05:35,000 --> 01:05:36,880
So raise the money while you
can.

1270
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:41,000
And I mean, I think it's, it's
been a bit of an underperformer,

1271
01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:45,840
but strengthening your balance
sheet this time the cycle makes

1272
01:05:45,840 --> 01:05:48,040
sense.
It'd be absolutely mad not to

1273
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:50,040
take that money at that at that
share price.

1274
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:52,960
All right, guys, let's wrap up
with some hidden gems.

1275
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:54,280
Trav, kick us off.
What's that?

1276
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:57,000
What's capturing your attention?
My hidden gem mate, it's AGM

1277
01:05:57,000 --> 01:06:02,160
season.
Like if you don't get stuff

1278
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,400
mailed to you, then the
announcements of the stocks you

1279
01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:07,520
own, you'll see this thing there
called a notice of AGM.

1280
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:10,160
Open that up.
And on there it has the, the

1281
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:14,680
meeting location and, and the
time and date of the AGM of the

1282
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:18,200
stocks that you own.
And my one, my one like, yeah,

1283
01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:22,520
suggestion to, to, to listeners
out there, go to an AGM this,

1284
01:06:22,800 --> 01:06:25,200
this year, just just pick, just
pick one of them.

1285
01:06:25,360 --> 01:06:27,640
Maybe your favorite stock or
maybe a stock that you just

1286
01:06:27,640 --> 01:06:32,120
like, you think there'll be
some, some something worth

1287
01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:34,480
attending.
Like just go to an AGM.

1288
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:37,520
You will learn a hell of a lot
more than reading any

1289
01:06:37,520 --> 01:06:39,840
announcement they put out and
you have access to the board,

1290
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:42,720
which which is usually kind of
pretty tricky to to to access

1291
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,480
for a lot of these stocks.
Massively underrated.

1292
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:49,560
Dave, what have you got mate?
So so my hidden gem is is

1293
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:51,160
holidays.
So I've just come back from

1294
01:06:51,160 --> 01:06:56,840
holidays in Laos at A at A at a
town called Luang Prabang.

1295
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:00,560
It's on the Mekong River.
Beautiful spot.

1296
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:03,440
Now is the time of year to go
between now and December.

1297
01:07:03,440 --> 01:07:05,920
Otherwise it gets a bit hot and
steamy.

1298
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:10,200
But a fascinating country it
about 7 million people.

1299
01:07:10,800 --> 01:07:13,400
It's the most bombed country in
history.

1300
01:07:14,960 --> 01:07:17,000
It's on the Mekong River which
is beautiful.

1301
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:22,520
Most of the population are
Buddhist and and also the the

1302
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:25,480
government is is communist.
So it's kind of got something

1303
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:27,480
for everyone.
That is, that is fascinating.

1304
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:30,200
You fly via via Thailand to get
there or.

1305
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:34,040
So you can, you can actually fly
directly into the capital which

1306
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:38,680
is Ventian from Perth which is
interesting or alternatively you

1307
01:07:38,680 --> 01:07:40,400
go through through Thailand and
then.

1308
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:43,000
Direct flight very, very
appealing.

1309
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:47,600
I like it I will wrap up with my
my hidden gem.

1310
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:50,160
It is a record player.
So I've become a snob that that

1311
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:53,120
listens to records now.
Total snob and.

1312
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:54,600
I bought 1 when I lived in
Melbourne too.

1313
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:56,080
Yeah.
It just happens to you when you

1314
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:58,800
go over there.
And I think it's a sort of

1315
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,960
fantastic thing just to to Chuck
on a record, listen to the the

1316
01:08:01,960 --> 01:08:05,280
whole thing through, you know,
gets you, you know, you can, you

1317
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:10,440
can just enjoy a piece of piece
of work for 30405050 minutes and

1318
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:14,320
and feel the the flow through a
whole album as opposed to just a

1319
01:08:14,320 --> 01:08:16,000
song.
So if you if you want to be a

1320
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:17,880
snob, get a record player.
Here we go.

1321
01:08:17,920 --> 01:08:19,319
Thanks a bunch for joining us,
Dave.

1322
01:08:19,319 --> 01:08:21,600
That was fantastic to cover so
many topics with you.

1323
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:24,000
Much appreciated.
Yeah, my pleasure.

1324
01:08:24,080 --> 01:08:26,279
Good, Good to be here again.
It's great to great to talk

1325
01:08:26,279 --> 01:08:29,399
about the stocks that we love,
Dave and great to see Yeah, the

1326
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:32,520
natural resource fund, you know,
going from strength to strength.

1327
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:35,960
So Congrats to you and.
And great to see the Sandvik

1328
01:08:35,960 --> 01:08:39,399
Ground support business, just
supporting the whole industry

1329
01:08:39,399 --> 01:08:42,720
and the the charts right behind
Dave's head, you can see they're

1330
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:46,200
brought to you by Focus, the
platform that market deck does.

1331
01:08:46,439 --> 01:08:47,760
Check him out.
Hey.

1332
01:08:48,160 --> 01:08:51,640
Deru, cheers.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

1333
01:08:51,960 --> 01:08:54,399
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

1334
01:08:54,399 --> 01:08:56,920
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

1335
01:08:57,279 --> 01:08:58,439
and you need to read out a
disclaimer.