Shrub Unplugged: Gold, Grift & Debasement

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Beginning of 25, I said 2025 is
the golden age of grift.

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And when I said that I had some
friends over.

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Some friends were telling me.
I thought when you said it you

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were exaggerating.
But now I think you were being a

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bit too conservative.
It's so much worse.

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Good morning.
How are you gents?

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Good afternoon for for us.
Good morning to you.

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We are, we are going well mate.
I appreciate you jumping on such

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short notice mate.
Excited.

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To I missed you guys.
I I, I've been feeling like we

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had to do this.
It's been a while.

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Yeah, yeah.
How's things on your end, mate?

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And how's life been?
Fantastic.

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It's been fantastic.
And you know what, I'm actually

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loving that we're doing this.
I'll mention of the call anyway,

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but we always do this at a
turning point, so I'm just glad

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we're doing it now.
What was that?

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What was that turning point last
time?

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There was, dude, last time we
were basically, I was invited

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during like a really bad moment
in miners where everyone was

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depressed.
And I was like, I was telling

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you guys, I spoke to everyone in
mining and they were all so

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depressed that I just went out
and I bought like Glencore Anglo

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and all that shit.
Yes.

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And then a few days later, the
Chinese came out with like a

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stimulus plan.
I remember that.

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I also remember there was like
peak.

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And I was like, and I told you
by the way, at the time, I was

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like, I'm so glad we're doing
this because everyone is so

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depressed in mining.
I think it's a good time to

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buying, buying all these things,
yes.

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We we have what was what was
the, I think I feel like you

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were toying around with buying
SBSW puts.

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Those are cold calls as well.
And, and Calvin was Calvin was

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like projecting that that, you
know, the end of the world was

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happening for SBSW.
But meanwhile he was loading up.

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That was it.
He was loading up on calls as

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well.
He nailed it.

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I think he.
I think he manifested.

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The bottom, yeah, I was buying
platinum as well.

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So I was like bullish platinum,
bullish miners buying all those

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things.
The Shrub.

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It's an age of debasement
because grift brings the

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basement.
Simple as that.

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It is kind of simple when you
say it like that.

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You bet.
Simple shrub kiss.

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You never cease to make us laugh
and reflect on I, I, I think

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just like the state of the macro
world in such like a simple but

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funny way.
I thought that that that one

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sentence, that phrase is just,
it's perfect.

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Of course, of course grift
brings to basement like, it's so

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simple when you, when you think
about it, of course.

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Throughout the ages, throughout
the millennia, that's the way it

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was.
And you know, we, we live in the

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golden age of grift.
It's quite funny.

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Like when I coined the phrase,
you know, I said like 2024, in

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2024, I said that's going to be
the year of Tamagotchi Yellen,

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because you know, Yellen just
drove the whole market.

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And then in beginning of 25, I
said 2025 is the golden age of

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grift.
And when I said that I had some

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friends over, some friends were
telling me, I thought when you

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said it, you were exaggerating.
But now I think you were being a

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bit too conservative.
It's so much worse.

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So, so, you know, Fast forward
like 8 months later, it is so

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much worse.
And I think that's where a lot

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of people got blindsided that,
you know, we are characterized

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by grift.
And like you said, currency

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debasement is an obvious feature
of the golden age of grift.

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Like this is what happened
during the Roman times when, you

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know, they were chopping off
bits from the silver coins, you

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know, to, well, that was an
element of grift, right?

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And that was the first case of
currency debasement.

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And this is where we are like
currency debasement just suits

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everyone and is it's a key
feature.

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And you know, a lot of people
are going to be trying to be

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contrarian and say that's not
going to keep going.

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But man, it is a feature.
It's very, very tough to bet

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against it.
It's it, it's a, it's a pretty

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long dated feature what, what
you're talking about there, but

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it's also not right.
Like what we're talking about

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is, you know, in the space of
eight months, it's so

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noticeable.
So how do you how do you think

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about it sort of playing out in
in time scales?

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Yeah, look, I, I think in this
one case, bear in mind like I've

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lived through the basement
because I grew up in Cyprus and

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you know, Greece, so back before
the, you know, before the euro.

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So I remember vividly when
things would cost like 300

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drachmas and a few years later
they would be costing like 1000

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drachmas.
But you know, those places where

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more emerging market.
So, you know, there were

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consequences that were felt
immediately, like, you know, we

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had a socialist government for a
long time and then that got

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replaced by a right wing
government to fix things and

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then that brought the euro.
So it brought some stability

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there, which by the way, the
euro brought deflation by itself

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and with the consequences of the
of Brexit and the European

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crisis.
But in this case, it's actually

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way worse in, in, in what way
the US is the reserve currency.

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So like you said, it's a, it's a
long, it's a longer time frame

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that we're playing for.
And even there we felt it

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noticeably in one year.
But because it's the reserve

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currency, they couldn't get away
with a lot of things in the

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meantime.
And they can also be arrogant

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enough not to halt it.
And I think that's the key thing

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that is missed by quite a few is
that, you know, if, if the

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administration believes in
American exceptionalism like the

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previous one, by the way,
because let's not you know, I'm,

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I'm I'm an equilib opportunity
shrub.

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You know, I just make a parody
of this of both administrations.

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Just so we're clear.
I think the previous guys were

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actually worse than the current
guys because they were covert

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about it.
And you know, they were just

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printing to get re elected.
And now the current guys are

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kind of like they, they, they
actually tried not to print.

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And for a few brief moments in
time, you know, Main Street was

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winning against Wall Street for
like 6 days when they said, oh,

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we, we actually have to, you
know, rein in on the US debt

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that we have to rein in, in this
currency debasement.

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But it lasted about 6 days.
And then they just gave up and

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said, well, actually can't
really do that.

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We're going to have to run it
hot, which is effectively like

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currency debasement.
So, so how this plays out, it's

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just going to keep going until
something breaks.

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And I don't know what breaks.
I don't know if it's going to be

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the bond market that that shakes
them more if it's going to be

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the currency.
I mean, look, the currency has

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been in a steady, I've been a
dollar bear for like the last

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year since the inauguration.
And I'm, and now it feels like

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very consensus.
I know it.

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And I wouldn't be surprised if
the dollar actually just stays

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here.
But you know, I think it's, I

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think the next phase is a global
debasement.

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So not just not the dollar going
to like 140 with the euro.

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It's just kind of like
everything getting debased and I

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think that's going to be a
feature again of the next, like

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you said, it's going to be like
a long feature of the situation

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because you know, there's so
many macro elements to it.

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There is a reassuring, there is
a, you know, creating new

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alliances.
There's still like supply

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disruption.
So all these things are like

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require money to be spent.
There's no way about it.

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So you look forward in the
future, are we going to have

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like a new Thatcher?
Are we going to have like a new

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Volcker?
I mean, let's just reflect on

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the last meeting, You know, the
last Fed meeting, we didn't have

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a Volcker.
We had, you know, one guy

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dissenting for 50 bips, which
was Steve Moran.

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And then we had everyone else,
you know, pretending that they

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did an insurance cut.
But actually, you know, they all

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want to cut more in reality.
So what it's, you know, this

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thing about the, the Fed being
hawkish or dovish now the, the

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Fed is rarely hawkish.
I mean, they were hawkish in

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2022 after they blew up.
But you know, they're, they're

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kind of like in a very strange
situation now where they're

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pretending that they have things
under control, but they, they've

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lost control in reality from
before.

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And that's, that's a whole new
discussion that I'm bringing up,

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to be honest.
But it's it's quite important

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because, you know, if the Fed is
the one that's supposed to, to

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be raining in on things, I kind
of, I kind of think, you know,

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they lost the plot from COVID
times, to be honest.

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And this is where we are like,
you know, you ask the average

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person if they were better off.
I mean, you know, your grocery

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bills are higher.
They're not coming down.

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And you know, the Fed is party,
party to blame.

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So we're really going to be
trusting these people to solve

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things.
And I don't think so.

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Gold is telling you that as
well, by the way.

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So.
Totally you've got such a light

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hearted way of of putting it all
and, you know, sort of calling

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out the stuff like Zuckerberg
and the hot mic in the meeting

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there and and Powell and Trump,
you know, quabbling over over

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the bill and these sorts of
things.

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But they're they're pretty sort
of serious challenges all the

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same.
Is your framing just to to kind

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of get long real assets and and
you know, partake a bit on the

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side with with gag with the the
golden age and these sorts of

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things like how do you think
about it all?

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Yeah.
So I have a very, very simple

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view that I'm trying to get
people's minds round because

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it's something that if you don't
understand, you're going to blow

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up.
So, you know, for my sins, I'm a

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boomer and I've lived through
2000, you know, 2008 crisis

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lived through 2000.
But 2009, 2008 was very

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memorable to me.
And, you know, I was lucky

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enough to be working for one of
the guys from the Big Short who

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was a genius and, you know,
nailed the trade.

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And, you know, we made a lot of
money during the crash.

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But you know, the mentality of a
lot of people from my generation

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is that they always expect a
crash and they always expect

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like a deflationary crash,
whereby equities are going to

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crash, bonds are going to rally,
we're going to have like a price

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discovery in assets.
They're going to buy things like

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$0.20 on the dollar and they're
going to make money on the

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recovery.
But that's bullshit because, you

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know, my same boss at the time
quite again, I say he was a

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genius.
He said something very smart at

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that time.
He said every crisis is

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different, so the new crisis
cannot be like the old crisis,

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so the new crisis cannot be like
2008.

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So what I'm trying to get people
to understand through my

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writings and my memes.
And, you know, usually they get

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it after the memes that maybe
they don't read the right

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things, but they read the memes.
They get the memes is when

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you're in a golden age of grift
with a currency debasement

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focus.
You should be thinking not about

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2008 crash.
You should be thinking that at

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the end of the day, your
currency is going to be

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worthless.
So you, you have like the left

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tail and you have the right
tail.

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You have to be thinking about
different scenario.

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You have to hedge yourself
against different scenarios.

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So you could like, there is a
small chance you're going to,

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there is a small chance you get
like a 2008, sorry, A2000 crash

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because of an AI CapEx bubble.
But there's also a chance that

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you get like a Zimbabwe,
Argentina stock market whereby

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you just debase your currency
and you have to be in real

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assets.
So the way I approach My

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Portfolio construction is this,
I tell people in the golden age

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of grift, you need to have real
assets, You have to have a

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barbell approach.
So you need to have on one

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barbell, you need to have the
real assets that you guys talk

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00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,640
about all the time, all the all
the stocks and commodities that

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00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,640
you guys talk about.
It's that barbell plus emerging

225
00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,920
markets, by the way, because
emerging markets like Brazil,

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00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,120
for example, they're going to be
massive beneficiaries of the

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00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,240
basement.
So that's one barbell.

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00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,440
And on the other barbell, you
can just put whatever you want.

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00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:55,680
You can put like, you know, you
can put like gross assets or you

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00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:58,440
know, you can put your golden
age of grift trays that I put

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00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,080
on.
I have a lot of.

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00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,040
And you know, you can just play
around with the with the simple

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00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,960
thought that if there is a
debasement, you're going to have

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00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,360
something left.
If there's a crash, you're going

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00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,600
to have something left because
you know, everyone comes out and

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00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,760
you know, they have a very
strong view about how the market

237
00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,640
is going to keep going or the
market's going to crash.

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00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,280
It's like, guys, I'm really not
that smart for that shit.

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00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,040
So basically I just want like,
I'm managing my own money.

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00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,440
I just want to, at the end of
the day, I want to make money

241
00:12:30,560 --> 00:12:33,360
and I want to survive and I want
to have capital leftover under

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00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,280
all circumstances because that's
what I do for a living.

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00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,400
So I think the only sensible
approach is a barbell approach.

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00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,200
And within that barbell
approach, the other way to think

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00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,680
about it is when things are
getting stretched like now,

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00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,200
which I think we're a very
interesting turning point and we

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00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:54,440
can talk about that later.
You know, if if you spend like a

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00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:58,360
little bit of premium inputs,
it's like a sacrifice to the

249
00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:02,080
market gods.
So a blood sacrifice, you know,

250
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,920
it's a blood sacrifice like you
like you've had a good run.

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00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,640
Everything is up in your
portfolio.

252
00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,800
You know, you go to the market
gods and you say OK, Ioffer you

253
00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:15,240
this blood sacrifice and you
know, spend like 50 bips inputs

254
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,280
and here you go.
Be kind, be gentle.

255
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,800
I love, I love hearing you talk
about this barbell strategy and

256
00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,360
of course, the appeal of real
assets, you know, given, given

257
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,840
the, the macro backdrop, the
golden age of grift is so

258
00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,960
compelling.
And he brought up gold earlier,

259
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,560
but I do know, you know, in your
own portfolio, a lack of

260
00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,200
allocation to gold specifically.
I know you're on Platinum, but

261
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:42,080
why?
Like why?

262
00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,400
Why?
Like you speak the language of

263
00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,640
the gold bulls.
So we're in a permanent state of

264
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:49,160
thinking like this, by the way.
But you don't.

265
00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:50,920
You don't have the allocation of
the gold bulls.

266
00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:58,400
Yeah, because I have the burden
of knowledge, unfortunately, and

267
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,720
that's why I messed.
I messed up the trade.

268
00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,520
Like I did really well with
platinum this year.

269
00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:06,920
It was like up 50% on it.
And I'm still quite bullish on

270
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:10,800
it actually.
But on the gold side, it's

271
00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,000
always about, you know, the
history of your previous trades

272
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,480
and what you lived through.
So the last time I bought gold

273
00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:25,080
was 2008 when, you know, I saw
my boss just go all in in gold.

274
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,480
And I was so afraid about the
world that I actually went and I

275
00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:32,960
put like a third of my money.
Like I put a third of all my all

276
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:35,760
my asses actually in physical
gold.

277
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:41,040
Like I went and bought bars and
put them in a safe and then Fast

278
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,000
forward like that was at 9:50
and Fast forward like a year or

279
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:50,800
two later, gold was at 1500.
I'm like, oh, that's awesome.

280
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,360
OK, fine.
So I just went, cashed out my

281
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,720
bars.
I saw gold to run up to 1800 and

282
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,760
I felt that I'm such an idiot
because all my friends and

283
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,040
colleagues, they just kept
writing it.

284
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:07,040
And then that thing crashed back
to 900.

285
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,760
Oh, and by the way, the miners
did so badly at that point,

286
00:15:12,760 --> 00:15:14,680
because, you know, I remember
had a lot of friends were buying

287
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:18,320
the miners and I was like, oh,
there, there you go.

288
00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,720
Gold is like Buffett was right.
Like gold.

289
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,320
You just buy it when you're
really afraid of the world and

290
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:31,960
you don't bother again.
So I, I made good money.

291
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:36,200
Like, I mean, look, I was young
and I mean, I put a pretty big

292
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,480
bet.
So it, it was good money for me

293
00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,520
and I didn't, I never bought
physical again.

294
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:45,280
And you know, since then I've
been telling myself like, you

295
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:49,280
don't really, really want to buy
gold when you want to buy

296
00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,840
physical, That's the time you
really want to be buying gold.

297
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,520
And to be honest, I think we
kind of had that moment a year

298
00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:01,240
ago or sorry, a few years ago
when, you know, the geopolitics

299
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,960
changed so much, maybe actually
from Ukraine, actually when

300
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,800
you're like, you probably want
to own physical gold here.

301
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:10,960
And I think that was a turning
point that I should have just

302
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:16,000
woken up and just done it.
But you know, the way I see it

303
00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:21,160
though, just to give me a give
me a break is I kind of just

304
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,840
bundle everything together.
Like I don't feel I need to own

305
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,920
gold, but I feel like I need to
own real assets.

306
00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,800
So for example, you know, I
bundle these things, you know, I

307
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,920
have miners that have done as
well.

308
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,720
You know, I have other medals
that have done as well as gold.

309
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,360
So I always make sure I have
that allocation and that's

310
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:46,320
something I don't touch.
I want to have like the minimum

311
00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,360
should be like 20% with all
these things because I know like

312
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,160
this guy Gunla came out and
said, oh, you should put 25% of

313
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,120
your money in gold.
It's like, dude, thank you so

314
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:58,920
much.
Like thank you so much for the

315
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,200
lesson in hindsight and back
trading 25%.

316
00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,400
Great.
That's not how I see it.

317
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:10,400
Like put 25% in real assets and
you'll feel better, like 5%

318
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:14,280
gold, 5% platinum, 5% copper, 5%
whatever.

319
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:20,359
Something you know, something in
Australia that's safe versus

320
00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,400
other parts of the world.
I think the real asset category

321
00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,920
should be quite broader.
I mean, you know, whenever I

322
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,240
bring it up, actually it's quite
funny because like you, like you

323
00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,880
just asked me why don't I own
gold?

324
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,800
I get crypto guys asking me,
you've given this lecture about

325
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,480
real assets, why don't you own
Bitcoin?

326
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:45,440
And I'm like, because I don't
need to.

327
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,040
I own other stuff that I like,
but that trade the same.

328
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,600
In fact, I mean, platinum
outperformed Bitcoin by like 3

329
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,320
times this year, but no one
talks about it, right?

330
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:59,000
So you know, stuff like that, I
think there, there's always a

331
00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:00,600
narrative attached to it as
well, right, Right.

332
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,880
The Bitcoin guys are just so
persuasive.

333
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,760
Like the crypto guys are so
persuasive and you're like, why

334
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,000
are you guys trying so hard?
Oh, because you're trying to

335
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,360
pump your shit.
OK, I get it.

336
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,760
Whereas real asset guys like,
you know, the gold bugs, the

337
00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,840
platinum bugs, the silver bugs,
like you're not really trying to

338
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,400
pump anything because it's been
there for like 5000 years.

339
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,720
And you know, we, OK, there's
the occasional gold conference

340
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,920
that they'll go, you know, hold
hands and sing kumbaya.

341
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,080
But you know, that's not really
what's driving the price of

342
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,040
gold.
So, you know, my, my point is

343
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,200
like different people have a
different idea about real

344
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,360
assets.
And actually, do you know, I'm,

345
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,440
I'm sympathetic to the idea of
Bitcoin being a real asset as

346
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,040
well nowadays for the, you know,
for digital nomads.

347
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,440
And there there's actually like
a whole, there's a whole

348
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,160
argument why you should include
some Bitcoin in the real asset

349
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,640
bucket.
And I think that argument goes

350
00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,920
back to my thinking about, you
know, my, my, my fear in 2008

351
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,560
that I had to go out and buy
bars.

352
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,400
Like why did I have to go and
buy gold bars?

353
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,480
I was actually afraid of the
banks because I was short of all

354
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:07,680
the banks.
And I'm like, oh shit, the banks

355
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:09,560
are going to blow up.
I might as well just hold gold

356
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,240
bars.
So now Fast forward to today, we

357
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,120
don't have the fear of the of
the, of the banks blowing up,

358
00:19:16,120 --> 00:19:18,560
but we have the fear of the
government's blowing up and we

359
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,400
have the fear of actually
getting debanked.

360
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:27,680
And what do I mean by that?
Like the UK arrests people for

361
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,640
tweeting the wrong shit.
So, you know, imagine if I tweet

362
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,880
out the wrong shit and the UK
comes to me and says, oh, I'm

363
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,680
going to seize your house in the
UK.

364
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,320
Well, you can seize my house in
the UK, but you're not going to

365
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:44,320
seize my Bitcoin kind of thing.
So there is, I think that extra

366
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,200
element that we have to be
thinking now.

367
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,400
And that's why, you know, I'm
not against some digital asset

368
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,160
allocation from a safety
perspective.

369
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:56,280
But you know, of course, that
just depends on a person, on a

370
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,240
personal basis.
Shrub's got his portfolio of

371
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,040
real assets and his whole
barbell approach.

372
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,000
And if you're thinking about a
barbell approach and real

373
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,200
assets, well, I know what
conference that we're going to

374
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,840
in Sydney.
Next month, very shortly,

375
00:20:10,120 --> 00:20:12,360
there'll be a lot of real assets
floating around.

376
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:16,600
That's it mate, October 21st to
October 23rd iMac in Sydney.

377
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,720
Get your tickets.
Details in the show notes.

378
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,200
If you want to buy real assets,
you need to learn about mining

379
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,840
companies and commodities.
Why not speak with other

380
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,160
investors, Speak with the
companies themselves, speak with

381
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,440
the service providers.
No better way to get up to

382
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,320
speed.
Why are you pumped to go to iMac

383
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,880
JD?
Mate, I'm pumped to go to

384
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,400
Sydney, your favorite city.
I'm pumped to speak with a bunch

385
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:36,840
of people.
We've already slotted in some

386
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,240
cool interviews we're going to
do, mate.

387
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,480
There's a lot of reasons to get
excited and by itself.

388
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,360
We're keen to see you there,
money miners.

389
00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:46,000
If you're at iMac joining us,
come say G'day to us.

390
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:50,240
Get your tickets to iMac today.
One of the, the funniest things

391
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,920
you've written this this year
was you sort of made, made

392
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,680
commentary about catching up
with a, with a doctor in, in

393
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,720
Cyprus who, who brings up a
biotech, which you know, is a,

394
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,120
is an Ethereum sort of holding
unit type thing.

395
00:21:04,120 --> 00:21:07,120
And to tie that in with
something you said earlier, it

396
00:21:07,120 --> 00:21:10,200
seems like we're at some sort of
turning point type thing.

397
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,520
So how how do you think about
the the really sort of recent

398
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,480
run up in, in things like
Ethereum and and other kind of

399
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,720
species out there?
Yeah.

400
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,760
So that was a really funny story
because I was, you know, I was

401
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,200
sitting down down with this
doctor, 75 years old, very

402
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,080
respected, one of the best in
his fields.

403
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,280
And, you know, he starts talking
about the stock.

404
00:21:30,360 --> 00:21:32,160
He he starts asking me about the
stock market.

405
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:37,920
And and then I ask him, it's
like, did you do you buy any

406
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:39,800
biotech?
Because I'm actually, you know,

407
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,800
I, I love investing in biotech
And I was hoping for like this

408
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:47,240
revelation, like, you know,
hearing from a specialist about

409
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,640
any new inventions or progress
in, in biotech.

410
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,920
And he says, Oh yeah, I just
bought this biotech company

411
00:21:54,360 --> 00:21:58,160
because they're going to switch
to becoming an Ethereum treasury

412
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,560
holding company.
And I'm like, Oh my God, this is

413
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:04,760
a 75 year old doctor.
He's investing in a Bitech

414
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,480
company because they're going to
be buying Ethereum.

415
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,120
OK, this is it.
That's kind of done.

416
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:16,760
So I use this little anecdotes
as as a, as a benchmark of how

417
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,360
invested people in people are in
these things.

418
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,520
Anecdotally, by the way, I don't
know that many people who are

419
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:26,200
alone gold in size.
So that's interesting.

420
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,000
Like all these boomers, like
this guy doesn't own gold, for

421
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,920
example, doesn't own miners, but
he owns a stupid Ethereum

422
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,000
treasury company.
So I, I think this trade is like

423
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,160
these treasury companies are
fundamentally stupid.

424
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,880
People are going to, I mean the
underlying might do OK, but

425
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:51,320
there is zero reason for these
things to trade at a premium to

426
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:52,800
NAV.
And I'm just glad we're doing

427
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,760
this conversation in money of
mine because you guys are

428
00:22:55,760 --> 00:23:00,360
familiar with the spot uranium.
Yeah, exactly with the uranium

429
00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:02,000
trusts.
So here you have like the

430
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,440
uranium trusts and then we're
trading at a big discount and

431
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,440
we're talking about a scarce
resource that is actually has a

432
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,640
deficit.
So imagine uranium is trading at

433
00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:16,600
a deficit and the spot is
trading at a discount, but

434
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,120
suddenly you have all these shit
coins getting put in treasury

435
00:23:19,120 --> 00:23:22,120
companies and they all expected
to trade a premium so they can

436
00:23:22,120 --> 00:23:25,000
share, issue more shares to the
monkeys so they can buy more of

437
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,560
the worthless coins.
And we're talking about like a

438
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,040
lot of these coins getting
circulated.

439
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:33,640
I mean, it's kind of like a
stupid thing that is going to

440
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:41,120
correct itself down the line.
But it also tells you that we

441
00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:45,160
are, we are at a turning point
and we're seeing some nascent

442
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,160
signs.
It's it's a bit like 2021,

443
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,360
remember where everyone was long
all the crap and the one was

444
00:23:50,360 --> 00:23:54,160
long, like the real stuff.
And then there was like this big

445
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:59,080
wave that just came and just
this, you know, gave this

446
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,560
massive rotation out of Ponzi
into real assets.

447
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:07,720
Like in this case, it's a bit
more nuanced because we are in

448
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:13,520
the golden age of grift, but it
tells you that there is a lot of

449
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:20,360
capital still that is getting
allocated and that capital, you

450
00:24:20,360 --> 00:24:23,240
know, hopefully it ends up in
some of the stuff we own, right.

451
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:30,480
I mean, we already had some very
interesting developments in

452
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,160
commodities this year with, you
know, I mean, the, the most

453
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,360
interesting development for me
was when the US government

454
00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:38,840
pretty much backstopped the MP
materials, right?

455
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,360
So from that point you created
like a completely different

456
00:24:43,360 --> 00:24:46,840
theme in commodities.
I mean, as someone else smarter

457
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,400
than me, than me framed it, he
said.

458
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,040
In the past, we used to invest
in commodities that the Chinese

459
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,400
were short of, and now we're we
should be investing in

460
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,240
commodities that the US is short
of.

461
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,760
That's actually like a really
insightful comment that you can

462
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:03,400
just create a whole portfolio
out of this.

463
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:08,400
So you basically the moment that
the US is panicking about their

464
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,200
own shortfalls, well, you should
be looking at projects in the US

465
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,200
that that address those
shortfalls.

466
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:19,440
And you know, that could benefit
from from any backstop from the

467
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,000
government.
Like this is actually one thing.

468
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:27,000
This is one of the, of the,
sorry, this is one of the good

469
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,920
things of the golden age of
grift that the US government is

470
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:32,360
doing the right thing at this
point.

471
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,640
And this is something that they
should keep going.

472
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,440
And this is something that they
should be spending money on

473
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,960
because this is addressing a
major imbalance that's been

474
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:44,080
building on over the last like
20-30 years, right?

475
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,040
I mean, classic example, you
know, all these the, you know,

476
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,960
the tungsten mines that they
closed 30 years ago are the tin

477
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,080
mines.
Like, you know, remember they

478
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,560
used to have like tin mines in
the US, not anymore.

479
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:56,480
So, so you have all these things
that need to be addressed and

480
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:57,880
this is something that's going
to take time.

481
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,400
And this is actually quite
bullish for, for very for very

482
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,760
niche parts of the market.
So I'm not going to say that

483
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:10,520
it's like a, you know, super
bullish for, you know, global

484
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,320
commodity market, but it's very
bullish for certain producers in

485
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,880
the US.
The the I read your article when

486
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:22,000
when you published an update on
commodities like in with

487
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,440
explicit reference to that MPA
materials deal and your thought

488
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,880
process as you're you know
trying to brainstorm what's next

489
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,880
What what medals is the US short
of that could be next.

490
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:37,440
You rattle through the likes of
antimony, tin, copper.

491
00:26:38,120 --> 00:26:40,920
Have you have you, has your
thinking evolved on that front

492
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,880
on on what could be next in in
predicting?

493
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:49,200
Yeah, the kind of.
Yeah, so I, I think like the

494
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,880
rare earth is going to keep
going because they, this was

495
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,080
like step one, but they still
need to address, you know, the

496
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,720
heavier errors and, you know,
just complete the whole supply

497
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,960
chain because, you know, there's
different elements to the supply

498
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,760
chain.
Like you can guarantee the, you

499
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,520
know, the price, you know, can
put a floor on the price, but

500
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,920
you also need like the refining
and everything around it or the

501
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:14,720
recycling element to it.
That's number one then #2 I'm

502
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,520
actually surprised I haven't
done it with antimony.

503
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,800
I mean, with antimony, they've
given them some grants, but

504
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,480
that's also a critical part.
They have to address tungsten.

505
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:29,760
I think it's an easy one.
I mean, there's you know,

506
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,120
there's a couple projects there
that are they're supporting

507
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:35,440
copper.
They might actually build the

508
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,920
road of trilogy, right?
I mean, they're they've been

509
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,600
trying to build that road for
since whenever.

510
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:47,640
So that's actually I would love
to see that road get built and

511
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,440
that would be like a major a
major achievement.

512
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,440
So I think the easy ones are
like Rares, Tungsten and Timony

513
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,560
make some progress with key
projects like copper.

514
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,320
Stuff like Northern Dynasty I
still think are never going to

515
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:10,080
get built, you know, for the
reason being building a copper

516
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:14,040
mine like trilogy, you know,
literally you just have to make

517
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,280
a few people shut up and you
just build a road and you're

518
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,400
done.
Whereas in the case of Northern

519
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,800
Dynasty, I think it just, it's
way too much.

520
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:29,840
Like it takes a lot to get
someone to build that mine

521
00:28:30,120 --> 00:28:33,400
because I think that mine can
only be built by like real Tinto

522
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,880
or BHP and they're not going to
touch it.

523
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,560
It's just too difficult.
I mean, there are environmental

524
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,400
risks to it.
I mean, I've, I've invested in

525
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:43,960
that thing like 15 years ago and
it was like evident that it's

526
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,760
too risky.
So, so I think we're going to

527
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,040
draw a line with like simple
stuff, basically things that

528
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,960
make common sense.
I I think tungsten antimony

529
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,720
makes common sense, Trilogy
makes common sense.

530
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,720
The rarests they, they make
common sense.

531
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,600
And I think that, you know, the
government should really be

532
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:03,960
putting money in all these
things like aggressive speeding

533
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,320
up permits for smaller copper
projects.

534
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:10,160
Definitely.
And you know, the other thing

535
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,360
I'm a bit surprised is they they
should, I mean, this trade war

536
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,560
was too aggressive because they
should have been building like

537
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:22,280
alliances with other neighboring
commodity producers, like with

538
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,840
Canada, for example.
Like it was an easy win to

539
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,640
create alliances with Canada for
the supply of critical metals.

540
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,920
I mean, the one thing that I'm
actually still super bullish on

541
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,120
that no one talks about and no
one has is tin.

542
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,520
I mean, this is yeah, I know you
guys talk about it.

543
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:48,280
So like, so we're kind of like
the minority of like 10 people

544
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,520
that talk about tin, but this is
actually quite, quite

545
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,480
incredible.
It's we're we're so niche.

546
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:54,640
We're like the niche of the
niche.

547
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,880
We're like, I'm pumped.
We're like, you know.

548
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,440
I'm so pumped.
Sorry, I'm so pumped about tin.

549
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,640
Oh, there you go.
I'm in the right.

550
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,640
I'm glad I'm in the right
podcast because I I, I'm super

551
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,920
excited.
I'll tell you why, because I see

552
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:17,520
people like pump all these, OK,
I, I get the story with antimony

553
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,920
and tungsten.
You know, these are very

554
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:25,840
credible stories, but you know,
they're also up like 10 times

555
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:29,120
from the Lowe's.
And, you know, these projects

556
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,240
now make sense only with a
floor.

557
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:35,560
Like the government has to give
them a floor to justify the

558
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:37,320
investment.
Otherwise no one in their right

559
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,000
mind is going to go out and
build a tungsten mine based on

560
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,040
the spot price.
Like you just wouldn't do that

561
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,760
because you know, the spot price
is going to go down 50% in the

562
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,640
next few years when the new
projects come in from any

563
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,400
country ending with Stan, right?
There's there's a lot of

564
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:57,400
projects in these countries with
stands that Tajikistan,

565
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,960
Kazakhstan and all these ones.
So you know, you can just get

566
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,720
new supply from these.
But in the case of tin, like the

567
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,560
supply, the the deficit is so
obvious.

568
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,560
The supply side is so bad.
The demand side is just going

569
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,360
through the roof and no one
cares about it.

570
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:17,040
And it's it's actually so quiet
that people are not even talking

571
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:20,280
about it as a critical metal as
if you can have your

572
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,160
semiconductors and your
wonderful AI without tin.

573
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:27,240
I mean, it's actually like a
beautiful setup remains like,

574
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,560
you know, I'm still bullish in
your it's actually the only

575
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,280
stock I own in Australia still.
I've owned it for a few years is

576
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,080
metals XI.
Just I just refuse to sell it.

577
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,000
I've got it like 15-20 cents.
I'm like not selling that thing.

578
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,160
Yeah, it's just insane.
Like there is.

579
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,920
Have you seen a new tin mine?
Like every every new tin project

580
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,320
I see is like a it's just crap.
There's nothing in there.

581
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,640
Yeah, undoubtedly Alpha Min is a
much better project, but you

582
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,520
have to be comfortable in a
different, in a different

583
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:58,760
jurisdiction.
And in the case of Metals X,

584
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,360
Ding, Ding, Ding, I should
disclose and some too.

585
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,480
I'm pretty, I'm like, I've got
no confirmation of this, but I'm

586
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,800
pretty sure they're land banking
like the, the, the pipeline of

587
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,920
development projects.
That's what these 20% stakes are

588
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,560
in the, in the 10 juniors.
Like like why do you have

589
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:15,920
multiple 20 like 20% plus stakes
in 10 juniors unless it's a land

590
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,800
banking strategy.
So like that, just that, just

591
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,680
that that further complicates
your supply story if if the the

592
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,920
West's other development
opportunities don't actually

593
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,640
have a feasible pathway to
development in the near term.

594
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,600
I, I agree, I don't think it's
that bad what they're doing.

595
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,560
You're just laying on all these
little projects.

596
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,000
I mean, look, I mean is a great
project for sure.

597
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:44,040
But you know, I just, I used to
own it by the way, I just can't

598
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:48,920
be bothered to look at news
about Rwanda and the DRCI just

599
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,200
can't be bothered.
So that's why I'm out of it.

600
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,600
But great projects, sure, but
I'd just rather just run with

601
00:32:55,600 --> 00:33:00,600
metals X and I, I was hoping
secrete that they would take out

602
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,560
their JV partner and just be
done with it.

603
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,440
Hopefully that happens down the
line.

604
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,360
If that happens, that stock is
just going to go like 2-3 X

605
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,000
because it just cleans up the
whole thing.

606
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,440
But you know, going back to the
example, like metals X is

607
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,480
trading a what, like 2-3 times
you'd be done nowadays.

608
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:22,400
So you basically have a critical
metal, the only Western company

609
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,440
doing it, trading a 2-3 times
you'd be done.

610
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:30,160
No one gives a shit because just
because you know, let's let's

611
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:35,280
chase something else that's
shiny and Trump said it.

612
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,120
But you know, if Trump says tin,
it's going to go up 100%.

613
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,120
But he doesn't say tin.
He says like rare earths.

614
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:45,560
So let's just buy rare earths.
Your point on alienating Canada

615
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:50,120
despite them being a resources
ally is super interesting as

616
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,400
well because they're really
cozying up to the DRC on that

617
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,760
kind of topic.
They're trying pretty hard to

618
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,600
settle down what's happening in
in the sort of war-torn part of

619
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,720
the country talking about
starting this new fund where

620
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,280
people are going to invest
targeting places like the the

621
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:07,680
DRC.
So the the geopolitical kind of

622
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:09,280
strategy is interesting to piece
together.

623
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,440
Yeah.
Look, I, I think the DRC has a

624
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,840
great story with the US and it
doesn't make a lot of sense.

625
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:20,800
And in in fact, when I mean the
conflict between Rwanda and the

626
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,880
DRC ended with US intervention,
which was really interesting and

627
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:26,120
actually very bullish for alpha
man.

628
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,040
So that's why I'm not against
alpha Man.

629
00:34:30,159 --> 00:34:33,440
But having said that, you know,
the area always boils into

630
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,120
something else.
So for example, there was ACIA

631
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:40,040
LED coup attempt in the DRC,
like just recently actually,

632
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,320
which failed.
And in the DRC, you know, I, I

633
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,840
do know for for a fact that
there's a lot of, you remember

634
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:49,159
Wagner, the, the Russian
mercenaries.

635
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,480
Yeah.
So there's a lot of Russian

636
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,280
mercenaries who operate in the
DRC for a very simple reason,

637
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,320
like these guys were fighting
against Ukraine and you know,

638
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,480
these guys are vagabonds.
They're out in the DRC trying to

639
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:06,080
secure mines.
So, you know, it's not it's not

640
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,120
without risk.
Now, if the US thinks 10 is so

641
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:11,360
important, they'll probably go
and secure the you know, they

642
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,720
can secure alpha min in like 1
day, right?

643
00:35:14,720 --> 00:35:19,280
But why bother when I can just
buy metals?

644
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:23,960
XI mean, sorry, kind of just
seeing it that way, but I'm not

645
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,320
against it.
Like like I said, I'm just not

646
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,400
against it.
I'm just, I'm just a little bit

647
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,720
older and I just don't want to
bother reading news about

648
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:33,880
Rwanda.
You've written a bit about a

649
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:37,800
potential resolution between
Ukraine and Russia as well.

650
00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,480
Curious honing in on the
commodities aspect and perhaps

651
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,640
touching on inflation as well.
How you think that could play

652
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:48,720
out if we if we see a resolution
there in the in the near term?

653
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:55,960
Yeah, so I'm actually like, I
was expecting some progress and

654
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,160
I did get like that run up to
it.

655
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,960
And the more it drags, I think
the more pessimistic I'm

656
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,560
getting.
And what I'll tell you the where

657
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:11,200
I am and what could happen.
So unfortunately right now the

658
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,160
Putin has created a wartime
economy.

659
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:18,960
And once you create a wartime
economy whereby your whole

660
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:23,080
economy depends on building
weapons, recruiting young men to

661
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:28,120
send to to war, everything
around the economy revolves

662
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:32,480
around supplying the the war
machine.

663
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:38,400
It's very difficult you as an
autocrat to just suddenly come

664
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,960
out and say, oh, we're doing,
we're going to have peace now.

665
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,240
OK, say you have peace.
Well, what now?

666
00:36:44,240 --> 00:36:48,440
What's going to happen to your
economy like those factories

667
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,840
where you make your tanks, what
are they going to do now?

668
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,720
You're going to switch to making
AI chips.

669
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,320
You can't even program like
you're a donkey.

670
00:36:55,760 --> 00:37:00,160
So like these guys are just, you
know, no offense to them, but

671
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,120
you know, they've turned into
like 1984 type monkeys whereby,

672
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,600
you know, the machine is just
feeding the war.

673
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:15,520
And if you want to keep control
of the country, you can't really

674
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,560
stop that war.
It becomes like the endless war,

675
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:21,480
like 1984.
You know, it just keeps going.

676
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:23,800
And unfortunately, this is where
we are with Russia right now.

677
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,000
It's very sad because I would
like this to end.

678
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,200
So that's why I'm kind of
negative to it.

679
00:37:33,240 --> 00:37:37,720
And, and also there's incentives
from other places like China

680
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,600
kind of benefits from the
tension because they're getting

681
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:44,160
cheap energy at the same time.
And now they've supplied,

682
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:46,600
they're going to have this
pipeline, the gas pipeline as

683
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,560
well, which was a big win for
Qi.

684
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,960
So I'm kind of pessimistic on
having progress.

685
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,520
That's number one.
But #2 if there is progress and

686
00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:02,000
if there's a ceasefire, I mean,
certain areas could get

687
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,920
impacted.
But I mean, the supply chains

688
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,600
have changed so much to
accommodate like product has

689
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,960
found its way around all these
sanctions.

690
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:15,680
Like no one can say that Russian
oil isn't getting pumped and

691
00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:16,680
exported.
It is.

692
00:38:16,720 --> 00:38:18,560
I mean, it's getting sent to
India and it's getting sent to

693
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,720
China or Russian Palladium.
I mean, Russian Palladium is

694
00:38:21,720 --> 00:38:23,240
still hit.
It's still finding its way to

695
00:38:23,240 --> 00:38:27,440
Europe.
So I actually don't think it's

696
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,640
going to make that.
It will have some impact, but

697
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,080
it's going to be huge.
Where it will make some impact

698
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:40,480
is in the general inflation top
line because wars are

699
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:45,280
inflationary.
So all these supply chain work

700
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,120
throughs, once they, you know,
once they come out, you will

701
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,440
have like a deflationary effect
naturally.

702
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,120
Also just just just on the, on
the cause of spending all this

703
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,840
money, well, you're going to
spend less money, which is

704
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,200
deflationary by itself.
Like, you know, NATO is going to

705
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:03,560
spending 5% of their GDP or
something stupid.

706
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:07,120
So, so once you have all these
general spending around around

707
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:11,400
the war machine just come down,
well, that's going to be just it

708
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,400
will be beneficial for for lower
inflation.

709
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,440
But it remains to be seen.
Like even Trump said himself

710
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,760
like he was disappointed with
with Putin.

711
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,120
So I don't know.
More sanctions are not going to

712
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:29,920
do much, I think.
I, I, I'd love to hear your,

713
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:35,720
your Brazil thesis, the Schrab
tell me why, like why Brazil was

714
00:39:35,720 --> 00:39:38,080
going to be a massive
beneficiary of the basement.

715
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:43,520
Yeah, So the thing with Brazil,
I wrote about Brazil about a

716
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:50,280
year ago and I, I got so many
emails from very good readers

717
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:55,520
based in Brazil saying I'm so
glad you're about Brazil because

718
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,840
everyone hates it, including
everyone here in Brazil.

719
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,280
We all hate Brazil and no one
owns Brazil.

720
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:02,240
And I'm like, oh, music to my
ears.

721
00:40:02,240 --> 00:40:05,760
Even the locals hate Brazil.
And you know, Fast forward now,

722
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,600
the market's up 30%.
But I actually think there's

723
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:14,160
more to go because again, like
one of the one of my smart

724
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,240
Brazilian readers, he actually
did point this to me.

725
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:21,600
He said, look, when it goes, it
doesn't go up 2030, it goes up

726
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:25,880
100.
So with the knowledge of my

727
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:29,200
subscribers, I'm building up on
that and just expanding, saying

728
00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,720
look, we're up 30.
But this thing can actually do

729
00:40:32,720 --> 00:40:37,040
way more for a very simple
reason here.

730
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:43,520
Here's the set up #1 rates.
I'll start with the macro.

731
00:40:43,520 --> 00:40:46,400
So the macro is quite simple.
So rates in Brazil are like 15%.

732
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,880
So they're like the highest
rates in the emerging 2

733
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,880
developing world.
You know, like to to a serious

734
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,080
country.
Let's put it this way, their

735
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,120
inflation is like between 3:00
and 5:00.

736
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,640
So if you compare to the US,
which has like inflation of

737
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,320
three and rates at four, you're
like, oh, shit.

738
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:10,000
OK, so Brazil has like real
rates of like 10 versus the US

739
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,400
have has real rates of like one
1/2.

740
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,560
So that's one.
So rates can only come down.

741
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:19,880
That's that's number one.
This is very important because

742
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:25,480
all the money.
And again, I got this feedback

743
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:30,040
from my Brazilian readers.
The Brazilian equity fund

744
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:36,960
industry go decimated because
with rates of 15, all the

745
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,480
pension funds and asset
allocators took the money out of

746
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:44,320
equities and just parked it in
Brazilian government paper.

747
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:48,040
That's why no one owns Brazilian
equities.

748
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,480
It's really simple.
It's like those things we were

749
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:53,720
taught when we were taught in
school, which which is called

750
00:41:53,720 --> 00:41:57,280
like crowding out, you know,
when the public sector crowds

751
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:01,440
out the private sector, which
they thought was going to happen

752
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,000
in the US.
What has happened in Brazil

753
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,240
where all the money comes out
and goes into paper that pays

754
00:42:07,240 --> 00:42:09,040
them 15%?
Because why would you own

755
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,400
equities that don't go up 15% a
year?

756
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,120
That's right.
Risk free, by the way.

757
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:16,560
So that's, that's the macro
setup.

758
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:20,480
That's number one.
Number two is the market is

759
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,520
actually really cheap.
We're still way below the COVID.

760
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,200
We're like we're just bounced
off like the COVID lows.

761
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:32,000
So the market is actually quite
cheap and we're like, you know,

762
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,040
it's trading at like 10 * P or
something.

763
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:37,080
I forgot what the last time the
the last P number is, but it's

764
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:40,440
like if, if it's not ten, it's
11 or 12.

765
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:44,360
So like we're talking about like
really low P multiples cash

766
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:48,320
flowing going back to the real
asset.

767
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:52,760
It's actually like a real asset
economy in the sense you see the

768
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:57,720
companies they have, it's valet
real assets, Petrobras real

769
00:42:57,720 --> 00:42:59,960
assets.
They have the banks, which are

770
00:42:59,960 --> 00:43:02,120
actually like really well run.
You know, they have the

771
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,720
commodities, so have a lot of
AG.

772
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,160
So they're Brazilian real, is
backed by agriculture as well.

773
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:14,280
So it fits in the real world,
you know, real asset category

774
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:18,480
owning Brazil versus like a
Ponzi market, let's put it this

775
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,120
way.
So that's that on the valuation.

776
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:27,480
And then lastly, sorry, so
that's 2-3.

777
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:30,600
The currency itself has, you
know, it's, it was at the

778
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,000
weakest level it's ever been.
So I believe, you know, I

779
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:34,720
believe in like a dollar bear
market.

780
00:43:34,720 --> 00:43:39,120
So obviously the Brazilian RII
would be a major beneficiary

781
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:42,520
from a dollar bear market,
especially if rates now are

782
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:46,120
coming down in the US.
So that's you have so you have

783
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,960
the kicker from the currency.
And then lastly and more

784
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:55,520
importantly, the the whole
market has been capped by Lula.

785
00:43:57,520 --> 00:44:01,520
And Lula has been pretty bad.
I mean, he's been acting like a

786
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:07,600
socialist, which he is, but more
more to the left side.

787
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:11,240
So he's alienated the business
people and he's, you know, he's

788
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:15,800
been pretty bad for the economy
as well, just giving handouts to

789
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:20,600
the poor, screwing the, the
business class and

790
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:24,320
entrepreneurs.
So, so, so people were put off

791
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:25,960
from investing in Brazil because
of Lula.

792
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:27,840
And that was like the biggest
push back I got.

793
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:32,600
And then now we have a very
important catalyst.

794
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:35,720
We have elections in October
2026.

795
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,160
So we have a chance for a
change.

796
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,200
And with all these good things
that I just told you, we now

797
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:48,680
have a catalyst.
And the biggest push back I was

798
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:55,240
getting was when I laid out the
thesis was, but the catalyst is

799
00:44:55,240 --> 00:44:58,600
like too far away.
To which I was replying, well,

800
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,800
do you want to buy it when it's
cheap or do you want to buy when

801
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,000
it's expensive?
Because once you get close to

802
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:04,880
the catalyst, every monkey is
going to be buying Brazil.

803
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,840
So, you know, Fast forward like
8-9 months later, market's up

804
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:12,480
30%.
The catalyst is getting closer

805
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,560
and there's still way more to
it.

806
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,520
If the catalyst gets actually
like if Lula gets out, I think

807
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,520
the market's going to just keep
going because you have like you

808
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:29,840
have a, I'm not going to say
melee type potential, but you

809
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:36,680
have a right wing probusiness
candidate that could have like

810
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:41,920
an Argentina times 10 in terms
of size catalyst.

811
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,120
And at the same time, no one
owns the market.

812
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,760
So I, I just, I, I still love
the setup.

813
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,480
I think, like, you know, when
people ask me for like lazy

814
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,880
trades, like I always get like
asked, you know, what would you

815
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:53,880
buy?
What would you sell?

816
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:55,680
Everything.
And like, dude, the last thing

817
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,000
I'm going to sell is Brazil.
Like I've just no interest in

818
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,280
selling Brazil.
I don't care what you think

819
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,880
about the outlook in the world.
Like if you think this S&P is

820
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:04,480
going to crash 50%, I don't
care.

821
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,600
Like just buy put on the S&P and
I'm just going to keep Brazil

822
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:09,920
because it's there.
I mean, it's it's obvious.

823
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,000
Like I don't want to sell cheap
stuff.

824
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,600
And especially when there's like
a clean catalyst and a long

825
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,040
story ahead of it.
Why?

826
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:22,960
Why buy the index rather than
like specific specific names

827
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:28,440
within there?
Because I'll tell you why

828
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,280
there's a few.
There's a few reasons.

829
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:35,720
One, I can go big on the index
without overthinking it.

830
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,120
It reduces the risk of messing
it up.

831
00:46:42,240 --> 00:46:46,360
So when the and then it's like,
I tell you, do you want to buy

832
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:53,040
the SMP on 12 * P or do you want
to buy, you know, Microsoft on

833
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:58,440
20 times earnings and you know,
Exxon at 10:00 And you're going

834
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,120
to be like, well, probably
should just buy the SMP and not

835
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:02,960
overthink about it kind of
thing.

836
00:47:03,240 --> 00:47:07,800
I don't know, I mean, weird
example, but you know, you can

837
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:12,160
get torquey things, you know,
you can get smaller companies or

838
00:47:12,160 --> 00:47:14,440
you can buy valet to be honest.
I mean, valet is super cheap,

839
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,000
super cheap.
But yeah, it's super cheap.

840
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:20,000
So but you know, but I was just
thinking, you know what, I'll

841
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:24,800
just buy the EWZETF.
I'll supercharge it with calls

842
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,600
on top because that, you know,
because the the index allows you

843
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:31,360
to buy calls cheaply.
So that's what I did.

844
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:36,000
I just went like index, good
size calls on top, good size.

845
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,440
So that gives me like a pretty
good leverage.

846
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,840
And I just, you know, keep it
simple.

847
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:45,240
Shrub kiss again.
I know I should be building like

848
00:47:45,240 --> 00:47:47,040
a complicated basket, but I'm
like, you know what?

849
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,960
I'm going to end up with the
index because you know, you're

850
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:54,040
going to end up with like valet
is 10%, Petrobras 10%, Itau 10%.

851
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:55,480
So I'm like, oh, you know what,
just keep it simple.

852
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,440
Just buy the index in size and
just be done with it.

853
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,160
What about all the, you know,
drama of Bolsonaro and

854
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:04,480
everything in the in the last
kind of week or two to give you

855
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,160
any sort of pause?
Yeah, it's actually pretty good,

856
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,200
I think, because so Bolsonaro
got sentenced.

857
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:12,680
Well, they're going to appeal
that.

858
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:18,200
But in reality, the the threat
to the bull case for me was

859
00:48:18,200 --> 00:48:20,760
actually Bolsonaro running for
president against Lula.

860
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,480
Because if there's one person
that would lose against Lula,

861
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,280
like I think a pet rock, you
know, a shrub would probably win

862
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:32,160
against Lula at this point.
But the only person that could

863
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:37,120
lose from Lula would be
Bolsonaro, because Bolsonaro has

864
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,160
like a check, you know, it's got
a checkered history.

865
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,440
Some people don't actually like
him for a good reason.

866
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:48,680
So I think it's good that they
go after him and and just

867
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:50,960
prevent him from running because
that means we're going to get a

868
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,600
different candidate.
And that different candidate

869
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:57,200
would probably be like Tercitio
was the the mayor of Sao Paulo

870
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,520
was a really good guy.
So I think it's actually a

871
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:04,920
positive catalyst not to have
Boston Arrow.

872
00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:08,320
Like you know, once they confirm
Boston Arrow not running, I

873
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,640
think it's pretty good catalyst
for us because it just removes

874
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,360
the one guy that would lose
against that could lose against

875
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,520
Lula.
Yeah, why you describe the, the

876
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:21,320
allocation towards Brazil.
I do wonder why you've got maybe

877
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,480
a different approach with, with
Platinum, right?

878
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,920
Like, and this is a, a kind of a
question we've, we've contested

879
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,120
with ourselves.
Like we know, we, we've been,

880
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:34,360
you know, picking up exposure
to, to PGM, like the PGM trade

881
00:49:34,560 --> 00:49:36,400
for a period of time.
And it's like, what's the best

882
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,480
approach?
Is it to, to, to buy a basket

883
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:41,920
where you effectively count
stuff up?

884
00:49:42,720 --> 00:49:44,520
It's hard.
It's hard to be right about the

885
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:47,800
trade and then you know wrong
about your outcome.

886
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:50,640
Or just by physical because
you're so scared of South

887
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,320
Africa?
By physical and in the case in

888
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:56,160
your case, you know, you're,
you're you've got a very buoyant

889
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,040
outlook on platinum.
We'll have and and you've you've

890
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,600
expressed the latest innings of
that trade Volterra.

891
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:04,960
Why?
Why Valterra specifically rather

892
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,680
than than finding a?
Yeah, I mean, I, I, yeah, I kind

893
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,640
of like I paper handed my
Valterra trade.

894
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:13,640
I have to admit, like it's one
of the things I'm annoyed about

895
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:20,040
because I was so I'm going to
Valterra a good level.

896
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:21,640
So I made money on it.
Great.

897
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,680
So I was waiting for the the
demerger of Anglo.

898
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:28,200
So I was just thinking of
Alterra as like a event trade,

899
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,680
because Anglo likes to sell
cheap, right?

900
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,200
That's what Anglo does.
So when Anglo sold Tangela, they

901
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,440
just sold it at the Lowe's and
the thing went up like 10 times.

902
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,880
So I'm like, you know what, when
Anglo sells Volterra, it's

903
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:43,840
probably going to be the low in
PGMS.

904
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:46,200
So, you know, they gave us a
really good entry on Volterra.

905
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:50,800
So that was great.
And then, you know, had a run,

906
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:56,040
had a good run, sold it.
I was expecting their placing to

907
00:50:56,040 --> 00:51:00,920
come out at a discount, which it
did, but they kind of ramped it,

908
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,280
ramped it after the discount.
But you know, my thinking was

909
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:09,880
it's a, it's a well run company.
It's cheaper than the rest.

910
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:12,760
It's the biggest producer.
So you know, just again, keep it

911
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:15,560
simple and do that.
But in reality, I'll tell you

912
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:19,600
what the right strategy is.
I've thought about it a lot and

913
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,360
I think the right strategy is
actually by physical and just

914
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:29,160
keep it and probably buy bars.
I mean, the, the problem with

915
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:31,200
bars is that you have to pay
like VAT around them.

916
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,480
So that's that's the problem.
Otherwise we've looked at that

917
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:36,080
because, yeah, have you looked
at it?

918
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:37,320
Yeah.
So the same thing in Australia,

919
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:38,800
right?
Same, same down here.

920
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,680
It's a shocker.
It's 10% on either side, Yeah.

921
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:43,640
Yeah, it was even more here.
It was, I think it was like 15

922
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,560
plus.
So you pay full VAT on it, which

923
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:49,880
is kind of stupid because if
there's one thing you want to

924
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:51,920
buy physical right now, I think
it's actually platinum.

925
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:58,160
And the, the other good thing
about physical, like when you

926
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,720
buy physical, you don't think
about it, you don't see the mark

927
00:52:00,720 --> 00:52:02,080
to market.
You just say, you know what,

928
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,080
it's mine, it's like a house and
that's it.

929
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:11,760
So I think you know, the problem
with this PGM equities and by

930
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:15,480
the way, I've, I've invested in
them over since 2008.

931
00:52:15,720 --> 00:52:17,920
I remember long min for example,
you know, I don't know if you

932
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,240
remember companies like that.
I mean, these were really shitty

933
00:52:21,240 --> 00:52:24,320
companies, like really bad.
And I mean, even from the listed

934
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,640
ones, like I, you know, SBSW,
you know, we made money out of

935
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:32,080
it, but it's a tough, you know,
these are tough stocks.

936
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:36,440
And Volterra was good because it
didn't have debt.

937
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:40,360
Impala is good because it
doesn't have debt, but you know,

938
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:44,840
ultimately making the numbers
for these companies is quite

939
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,640
difficult because of all the
byproducts.

940
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:50,160
Like let's put it this way.
You might get the price of

941
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,040
platinum right, but you might
get the price of Palladium wrong

942
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,840
and rhodium might collapse.
So you're expecting them to make

943
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:57,920
money, but they actually lost
money.

944
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:02,600
So they're not like as clean as
a gold company, for example,

945
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:04,600
where you know, there's the
price of gold and that's it,

946
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:07,440
that's your margin.
So and then you have the South

947
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,640
Africa risk, which just makes
everything more complicated.

948
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:15,680
So if you, if you just look at
the supply, supply and demand of

949
00:53:16,000 --> 00:53:19,960
of platinum supply is crap.
I mean, no one's producing more,

950
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:23,840
more platinum and the supply is
coming now out of recycled

951
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:28,080
material and like, you know,
inventories and stuff like that,

952
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:30,960
which you know can easily go the
other way.

953
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,640
So that's that.
And then the demand side is

954
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:38,840
actually being quite OK.
So if you want to just hedge

955
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:43,080
geopolitically and just hedge
the whole supply side remaining

956
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:46,720
crap, which it will, I think you
just buy physical platinum and

957
00:53:46,720 --> 00:53:48,560
forget about it.
Like, you know, become like the

958
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,760
gold bugs.
Like if the gold bugs are

959
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:57,080
storing gold bars, why shouldn't
you as a platinum bug store some

960
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,240
platinum bars?
I mean, I, I would love to hear

961
00:54:01,240 --> 00:54:04,760
someone, you know, come up with
like a tax efficient way of

962
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:06,320
doing it.
But I guess like the ETF is

963
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:09,320
probably the the easiest way the
other day I mean I was doing it

964
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:12,920
with futures, but probably ETF
is better to just avoid the

965
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:16,680
roles and be done with it.
Yeah, I, I think so you, you

966
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:18,400
mentioned Palladium there as
well.

967
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:19,920
How do you sort of think think
about Palladium?

968
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:22,520
I mean, see, Palladium is a, is
a tough one.

969
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,600
Like I, I never liked Palladium,
but again, it's a burden of

970
00:54:25,600 --> 00:54:28,600
history because you know, I
remember Palladium used to be at

971
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:34,440
like 300 bucks because
automotive companies were using

972
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:36,520
platinum for catalytic
converters.

973
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,040
And then the platinum became so
expensive, they just switched to

974
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:45,160
Palladium, which pushed up the
price of Palladium from 300 to

975
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,840
like 2000.
And it became more expensive

976
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:49,840
than platinum.
But they never switched back to,

977
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:54,560
to platinum because there's
actually way more supply of

978
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,800
Palladium.
And this is 1 metal that

979
00:54:57,800 --> 00:54:59,480
actually Russia is a big
producer of.

980
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:08,000
So having said that, the north
mines of the north, mines that

981
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:10,480
produce Palladium are really
crap.

982
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:13,480
Like they really just haven't
invested anything there for the

983
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:17,200
last few decades.
So basically like the, you know,

984
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:18,440
the Russians, they don't like to
invest.

985
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:20,760
They just like to take, as you
guys know.

986
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:26,480
So they've been just draining
the money, getting it out of

987
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:30,840
Russia, putting it in, you know,
the South of France in villas

988
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:35,680
instead of reinvesting,
reinvesting in their minds.

989
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:38,560
So I actually think those
Palladium mines are not going to

990
00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:44,560
be as good as people think.
But, you know, that said, I'm

991
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:49,960
more of a, I'm a platinum maxi
versus caring too much about

992
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:53,840
Palladium because I, you know, I
see platinum as a precious metal

993
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,240
and I see Palladium as an
industrial metal.

994
00:55:57,240 --> 00:56:00,240
So if I'm going to store some
like, OK, the simple example I

995
00:56:00,240 --> 00:56:05,040
get is like you go to your wife
or girlfriend and you just say I

996
00:56:05,040 --> 00:56:07,480
bought you this beautiful
Palladium ring.

997
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:11,920
It's going to just slap you.
Like what Palladium ring?

998
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:16,120
Like you're only going to give
like a platinum ring to someone.

999
00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:17,840
You're not going to give like a
Palladium ring.

1000
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:21,040
I mean, what is that so?
You're actually going to give a

1001
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:22,200
platinum ring?
Is that a thing of?

1002
00:56:23,360 --> 00:56:25,520
Course, I gave my wife a
platinum ring.

1003
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:29,160
I I think in the sort of, you
know, the public consciousness,

1004
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:32,800
like the tears, you know, you
have bronze, silver, gold,

1005
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:34,360
platinum.
You have a platinum, platinum,

1006
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,240
all all these things.
Platinum's at the top, yeah.

1007
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:37,760
Yeah, yeah, Platinum's at the
top.

1008
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:38,920
Yeah.
But it's always, it's always

1009
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:40,920
actually a digital embodiment
rather than a physical

1010
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:41,480
embodiment.
Yeah.

1011
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:46,800
So it was actually funny, funny
factoid, but the Platinum

1012
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:53,440
Association partnered with the
beers back in the 2000s to make

1013
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:56,680
a marketing campaign in China
that if you want to get engaged,

1014
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,600
you should be offering a
platinum ring with a diamond on

1015
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:03,960
top.
So it became like, you know, the

1016
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:10,200
top, sorry.
The aspirational goal for a

1017
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:13,840
proposal in China would be like
a platinum ring with a diamond

1018
00:57:13,840 --> 00:57:17,680
on top, thanks to a De Beers
campaign with the Platinum

1019
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:21,120
association in China.
Get a get a lab grown diamond

1020
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:22,600
these days just plonged on top,
yeah.

1021
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:25,040
Exactly.
Oh, that's a big discussion by

1022
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:28,400
itself, actually.
Before we jump into that one

1023
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:31,200
though, how do you think,
because you're a sort of trader

1024
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:36,360
by mentality sort of shrub, how
do you think about these ratios?

1025
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,600
You, you, you've obviously
mentioned that you think of

1026
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:41,040
platinum as a precious.
We hear a lot of people, you

1027
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:43,280
know, if we go back to what you
referenced there, 2008 sort of

1028
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,720
timeframe, the ratio of platinum
to to gold completely different.

1029
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:48,720
Do you, do you pay much
attention to that?

1030
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:52,440
Yeah, of course I lost a lot of
money doing that, so that's

1031
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:57,560
thank good for bringing it up.
So when I first invested in

1032
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:00,400
platinum, it was like 2 to one
to gold.

1033
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:03,880
Like the first time I did
analysis on platinum.

1034
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:10,480
Then at some point I actually
remember buying platinum at a

1035
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:19,360
30% discount to gold and I got
stopped out like 5% lower or

1036
00:58:19,360 --> 00:58:21,280
something.
It went from like 70, a 30%

1037
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,280
discount to like 35 and I think
I stopped it out like ages.

1038
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:26,160
I'm talking about like 10 years
plus.

1039
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:31,640
And then I thought it in a
different way, which was more

1040
00:58:31,640 --> 00:58:35,000
helpful.
And that was about a year ago

1041
00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:38,760
when I went big in platinum.
Platinum was trading at like 950

1042
00:58:38,760 --> 00:58:40,880
or something.
It was trained like the nine

1043
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:42,480
hundreds.
Platinum was in the 9 hundreds

1044
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,560
and gold was breaking out in the
2000s, but it was breaking out

1045
00:58:46,560 --> 00:58:47,840
like 2 1/2 thousand or
something.

1046
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,320
And I thought about it
differently at that point.

1047
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:52,400
And that's what really helped
me.

1048
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:56,560
I was like, look, platinum is
trading at 3035 cents on the

1049
00:58:56,560 --> 00:59:00,400
dollar to gold.
I don't need to short gold.

1050
00:59:01,800 --> 00:59:05,640
I just need to buy platinum
because you know, I'm seeing

1051
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:08,120
there's a bull case for gold.
It's obvious like the trend is

1052
00:59:08,120 --> 00:59:10,320
there, the thesis is there, the
macro is there.

1053
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:14,960
So I might as well just buy the
precious metal that's trading at

1054
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:18,320
like 30 cents on the dollar.
You know, just see that as a

1055
00:59:18,320 --> 00:59:20,880
floor.
So I think the ratio, basically

1056
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:25,320
what I'm trying to say is the
ratio is a very, is very helpful

1057
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:30,080
to just guide you for the
investment decision versus you

1058
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:32,880
should never ever trade the
ratio itself.

1059
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:35,480
Just don't trade the ratio.
It's stupid.

1060
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:37,960
Like just don't do it.
Like anyone hearing this, don't

1061
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:40,520
trade ratios of commodities
inherently stupid.

1062
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:44,000
Leave that to other people.
Yeah, just keep it simple.

1063
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:46,720
I think I should, I think it
should be a marker.

1064
00:59:46,720 --> 00:59:50,640
I think it should be a guideline
that basically like when you buy

1065
00:59:50,640 --> 00:59:53,640
platinum at $0.30 on the dollar
to gold, it's a good investment

1066
00:59:54,000 --> 00:59:55,680
and you should just buy it,
simple as that.

1067
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:59,640
And you can make the same
argument, by the way, with oil

1068
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:02,320
versus gold, copper versus gold,
like these things are very good

1069
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:05,240
markers to just see where you
know where the lows are.

1070
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,440
Actually, I would love to see
where the oil versus gold is

1071
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:09,120
right now.
It's probably like at the lowest

1072
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,360
or something.
Yeah, yeah, that one's, that

1073
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,480
one's super out of whack.
Speaking of gold as well, no,

1074
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:18,880
Noble is one of the, the names
in, in that sort of portfolio

1075
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:22,400
you've got and that whole
offshore services, you know, be

1076
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,600
it Valaris, Noble, all these
guys, they're, they're really

1077
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:29,040
interesting and they're super
unloved at the moment.

1078
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:31,880
So curious to hear you to sort
of riff on on why you hold a

1079
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:36,200
small sort of position in that.
Yeah, it's kind of like it's one

1080
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,880
of those things like I felt like
it bottomed out, like I owned it

1081
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:41,160
from higher and then I felt it
bottomed out in the 20s.

1082
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:44,720
So I had to buy more than it
went up to trim.

1083
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:51,120
But I kept that position because
it's, it's, it's a, it's part of

1084
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,600
the real asset portfolio.
Like there aren't that many

1085
01:00:53,600 --> 01:00:55,320
rigs.
The, the number of rigs around

1086
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,320
the world are still the same.
So it's again a supply side

1087
01:00:57,320 --> 01:00:58,920
issue.
Like the, the supply of rigs is

1088
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:02,400
still there.
The rates are kind of OK,

1089
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:06,120
they're making good money.
So you're kind of getting like a

1090
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:10,320
levered play on the oil price if
the oil price actually ever goes

1091
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:13,720
up again.
But at the same time, the

1092
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:18,000
offshore, sorry, the offshore
breakevens are pretty low right

1093
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,600
now.
So in the 30s, so I think the

1094
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:22,280
offshore industry is going to be
OK regardless.

1095
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:26,400
So that's kind of why I like the
offshore oil services versus

1096
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:28,480
anything else like I don't
touch, I don't touch shale or

1097
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,640
anything like that.
But on the offshore side, if you

1098
01:01:31,640 --> 01:01:35,920
think about it, if your break
evens are 30, you have a pretty

1099
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:38,120
big margin of safety for all
these projects to get done

1100
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,240
versus shale.
That's number one.

1101
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:47,240
And #2 is, well, you only have X
number of rigs, so that's

1102
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:51,080
supported for the rates itself.
And you know, like, you remember

1103
01:01:51,080 --> 01:01:54,960
like 2 years ago, everyone loved
these offshore drillers.

1104
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,000
Like it was like the best thing
since sliced bread.

1105
01:01:57,440 --> 01:02:00,760
And now no one talks about them
while they're still, they're

1106
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:03,280
kind of like boomery stocks.
Like, you know, Noble pays like

1107
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:07,160
a 6 to 8% dividend just chugging
along.

1108
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:11,160
So kind of hate to say it, but
it kind of like paid to wait

1109
01:02:11,160 --> 01:02:15,200
until there's like a one of
those things, right?

1110
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:19,040
Just boring, boring stuff. 68%
just hanging.

1111
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:22,160
Out, yeah, nowadays like 68% is
like what a Ponzi does on a

1112
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:23,680
daily basis, but it is what it
is.

1113
01:02:25,640 --> 01:02:29,440
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.
Ponzi's the Rolling Ponzi thesis

1114
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:31,400
that are the rolling Ponzi.
Thesis.

1115
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:35,360
You popularized when we well.
I mean, dude, the rolling Ponzi

1116
01:02:35,360 --> 01:02:37,240
thesis, I got it.
I mean, I'll say it now and

1117
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:40,480
there, I was going to write a
piece of it, but it's, it's an

1118
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,240
interesting 1.
So, so I came up with the

1119
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,320
rolling Ponzi thesis like a year
ago.

1120
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:49,280
It was before an NVIDIA quantum
conference.

1121
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:54,000
So I was like, I said, I'm going
to write a thesis that's so

1122
01:02:54,000 --> 01:02:56,560
stupid.
I said like, this is stupid, but

1123
01:02:56,560 --> 01:03:01,440
it's so stupid it might work.
So there was an NVIDIA quantum

1124
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:03,240
conference like a few weeks
later.

1125
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:06,840
So NVIDIA was going to present
about quantum computers and all

1126
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:08,920
that crap.
So I was like, well, why don't

1127
01:03:08,920 --> 01:03:12,000
we just buy calls on all these
quantum computing stocks like

1128
01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:17,680
IONQ and some other smaller crap
and, you know, just buy calls

1129
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:21,280
into the conference.
And you know, those calls ended

1130
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:23,720
up going up like four or five
times.

1131
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:27,080
And you know, the small one, the
small stocks, you know, IONQ

1132
01:03:27,080 --> 01:03:28,800
doubled.
So the call went up like 5 times

1133
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:31,440
or something.
And then the small, the small

1134
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,840
quantum stocks went up like 2-3
X into the conference.

1135
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:39,840
And I'm like, oh, there you go.
The rolling ponzi's thesis has

1136
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:42,120
been confirmed.
Like people just love to buy the

1137
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:45,520
Ponzi's and they just run into
them.

1138
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:47,800
And I, you know, I did the same
with the SMR.

1139
01:03:47,800 --> 01:03:50,720
So like all close and SMR all
close and the news game.

1140
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:55,720
But here's the interesting part.
I thought those quantum stocks

1141
01:03:55,720 --> 01:03:59,880
would actually deflate
afterwards, which they did, but

1142
01:03:59,880 --> 01:04:01,600
then they took another life of
their own.

1143
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:08,560
So I'm in Qi think I sold it
like when it was like 6 billion

1144
01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:10,600
company like it was a 6 billion
company dude.

1145
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:13,280
Like it was still like it's
still insane for something that

1146
01:04:13,280 --> 01:04:18,440
makes no no money right.
So I checked yesterday and it's

1147
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:22,040
a 22 billion company.
So it went up 3X and then I

1148
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:25,200
checked these smaller ones, but
you know, I made like 2-3 X my

1149
01:04:25,200 --> 01:04:27,480
money on that.
They went up another 10 times

1150
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:32,040
and I was like, Oh my God, these
quantum like this quantum

1151
01:04:32,040 --> 01:04:36,160
Ponzi's and all these SMR Ponzis
and all these things like

1152
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:40,120
they're, they were rolling
Ponzis for the first few months.

1153
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:43,440
So like, you know, they went up
and they went down, but then

1154
01:04:43,440 --> 01:04:46,560
they got a life of their own and
they just, it just became like

1155
01:04:46,640 --> 01:04:49,480
they gained critical mass to the
point where now they're like

1156
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:56,400
IONQ 20 billion, QBTS 8 billion,
Righetti 8 billion.

1157
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:59,000
So, you know, put them together,
you're talking about like 36

1158
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:02,760
billion worth of market cap in
three companies that produce no

1159
01:05:02,760 --> 01:05:05,600
revenues.
And I'm like, dude, 36 billion

1160
01:05:05,600 --> 01:05:09,080
is pretty much like the whole
critical metals industry.

1161
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,200
Don't say it.
I know, I know that.

1162
01:05:14,880 --> 01:05:16,000
Is wild.
Yeah.

1163
01:05:16,000 --> 01:05:18,800
I mean, you checked in the line.
Yeah, you checked in the line in

1164
01:05:18,800 --> 01:05:20,760
one of them.
Valuation doesn't matter.

1165
01:05:20,840 --> 01:05:22,120
You wrote it somewhere in one
of.

1166
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:22,920
Oh, it doesn't matter.
Yeah.

1167
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,400
Valuation doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter like and

1168
01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:28,240
that's coming from someone who
grew up like as an investment

1169
01:05:28,240 --> 01:05:31,800
banker, you know, as a
fundamental analyst using

1170
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,720
spreadsheets and you know,
trading it based on multiple of

1171
01:05:34,720 --> 01:05:38,040
that stuff.
One thing I have concluded that

1172
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:42,640
thankfully, you know, thankfully
a few years ago, valuation does

1173
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:44,320
not matter.
And you know, these are quantum

1174
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:45,680
stocks is actually quite an
example.

1175
01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:51,760
It's all about getting the
thematic right and just the

1176
01:05:51,760 --> 01:05:54,520
momentum behind it.
But of course, you know, people

1177
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:59,160
that actually just people that,
whose investments thesis depends

1178
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:00,560
on that they, they end up
getting killed.

1179
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:04,160
By the way, just so we're clear.
So for example, you know, these

1180
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:09,080
companies could easily end up at
0 right down the line, but on

1181
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:10,800
the way there they could be up
10X.

1182
01:06:10,800 --> 01:06:13,040
And that's why I'm actually
really against shorting these

1183
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:16,000
companies.
Like I, I, I tell people like

1184
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:18,320
don't even think about shorting
these companies like you either.

1185
01:06:18,360 --> 01:06:21,280
You're either long them or you
just pretend they don't exist.

1186
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:24,160
So.
Valuation doesn't matter until

1187
01:06:24,160 --> 01:06:25,600
it it does though.
Right.

1188
01:06:25,600 --> 01:06:26,840
Yeah, it doesn't matter until it
does.

1189
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:28,040
And then it's the only thing
that matters.

1190
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:30,880
And I mean, I actually, the
reason I say that is because you

1191
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:33,920
know, the, the 2 short positions
you have right now.

1192
01:06:34,440 --> 01:06:37,280
Yeah, I'm sure valuation is kind
of part of that, NVIDIA and

1193
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:38,520
Tesla.
Oh 100% yeah.

1194
01:06:38,960 --> 01:06:41,320
So that's quite funny.
Like I never short single names.

1195
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:44,160
I used to.
I was actually quite a, don't

1196
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:48,160
want to brag, but I, I thought I
was a pretty good short seller.

1197
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:54,960
And the reason why I have a
pretty high hit rate with shorts

1198
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:58,160
is because I, I never short.
So, so obviously I'm going to

1199
01:06:58,160 --> 01:06:59,960
have a high hit rate because I
don't really do it.

1200
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:04,640
But you know, I kind of like, I
put 2 shorts on single names.

1201
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:08,960
I'll say I, I'll, I'll say them
out loud because it's just funny

1202
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:12,280
by itself.
But, and, and by the way, just

1203
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:17,160
caveat, this is all parody, not
investment advice.

1204
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:19,600
And you'd be stupid to be
shorting stuff anyway.

1205
01:07:20,600 --> 01:07:24,640
So I'm short like NVIDIA and
Tesla and I see them as like

1206
01:07:24,640 --> 01:07:29,160
funding shorts in the sense I, I
don't have anything against them

1207
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:35,080
per SE, but I just like to find
these, you know, Nvidia's 5

1208
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:37,440
trillion and Tesla's like 1 1/2
trillion.

1209
01:07:37,800 --> 01:07:41,040
So if I'm going to hedge My
Portfolio with something, just

1210
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:43,280
rather do it like, and I have a
lot of mid caps that are doing

1211
01:07:43,280 --> 01:07:46,560
pretty well right now.
I might as well just hedge My

1212
01:07:46,560 --> 01:07:51,080
Portfolio with things that I
think are like maxed out because

1213
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:54,920
if the market turns, I mean,
NVIDIA has a whole, you know, I

1214
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:58,360
think the NVIDIA book is like
maxed out, like maxed out.

1215
01:07:58,760 --> 01:08:02,000
The only people left to buy GP
us are like the Martians or

1216
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:06,520
something.
So, so you can just bet against

1217
01:08:06,520 --> 01:08:09,320
that.
And then Tesla, Tesla has like a

1218
01:08:09,320 --> 01:08:12,720
whole story by itself with EV
competition from everything

1219
01:08:12,720 --> 01:08:14,600
else.
Like, you know, even here in

1220
01:08:14,600 --> 01:08:17,319
Europe, I see more Byds getting
sold in Tesla's, for example.

1221
01:08:18,240 --> 01:08:22,720
So, and but I'm, I'm like, I'm
like super opportunistic with

1222
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:24,160
shorts.
Like, you know, if they go up

1223
01:08:24,160 --> 01:08:26,319
5%, I'm going to just get
stopped out.

1224
01:08:26,319 --> 01:08:30,680
So I don't really care.
But yeah, my, my shorts are very

1225
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:34,640
tactical, very few.
I hate doing it.

1226
01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:37,000
Like sometimes I even wonder
why.

1227
01:08:38,279 --> 01:08:40,880
But you know, I'm kind of
writing my trading diary,

1228
01:08:41,000 --> 01:08:42,479
trading diary.
So that's why I share them.

1229
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:44,840
But I just wonder sometimes,
like, oh man, I'm going to write

1230
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:47,720
down that I shorted something.
I'm going to get like 10 hate

1231
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:50,640
mails.
I'm going to get like people

1232
01:08:50,640 --> 01:08:53,960
telling me I'm an idiot, which
is fine, it's OK, I'm a shrub,

1233
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:54,399
right?
So.

1234
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:00,040
From your sort of journey, you
know you've spoken about the the

1235
01:09:00,040 --> 01:09:04,040
GFC in that point in time to
where we are today, when did

1236
01:09:04,399 --> 01:09:09,120
valuations start to not matter?
I think the big turning point

1237
01:09:09,120 --> 01:09:13,840
was COVID.
I mean, there was always like a

1238
01:09:13,880 --> 01:09:18,520
switch out of value, sorry,
whenever sorry.

1239
01:09:18,520 --> 01:09:22,200
When they started talking about
like factors, when people

1240
01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:25,319
started trading factors, that
was a big change because once

1241
01:09:25,319 --> 01:09:28,600
you start trading factors,
valuation is not like there is a

1242
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:31,200
valuation factor and there is a
growth factor.

1243
01:09:31,680 --> 01:09:34,920
And then when you start putting
like AI factor, thematic factor,

1244
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:37,399
when they you start diluting
valuation by itself, valuation

1245
01:09:37,399 --> 01:09:41,840
becomes a smaller part.
But I think the real catalyst

1246
01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:47,520
was probably COVID because
during COVID that's when we had

1247
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:51,560
like the retail army really pick
up people staying home and

1248
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:54,120
trading.
And you know, when people, you

1249
01:09:54,120 --> 01:09:56,480
know, there's an army of traders
that doesn't use valuation.

1250
01:09:59,360 --> 01:10:03,680
So that's when it got even more
diluted and becomes became self

1251
01:10:03,680 --> 01:10:10,120
reinforcing because the algos
are picking up, the algos are

1252
01:10:10,120 --> 01:10:14,200
picking up the retail flow and
the retail flow is trading on

1253
01:10:14,200 --> 01:10:16,200
the back of algos becomes
reinforcing.

1254
01:10:16,600 --> 01:10:18,280
It's like a circle jerk in
reality.

1255
01:10:18,640 --> 01:10:22,920
And then they just run up these
things to the moon and valuation

1256
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:25,240
just loses control.
I mean, you know, classic, let

1257
01:10:25,240 --> 01:10:28,680
me I'll give you a few classic
cases like Tesla lost, you know,

1258
01:10:28,680 --> 01:10:32,800
that has hasn't had valuation as
a factor in its share price

1259
01:10:32,960 --> 01:10:35,440
ever.
So that's number one.

1260
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:41,360
Number 2 is like MSTR.
So micro strategy trading at a

1261
01:10:41,360 --> 01:10:44,760
premium to its Bitcoin of like
2-3 hundred percent.

1262
01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:47,360
Why?
There's no reason behind it.

1263
01:10:47,360 --> 01:10:50,240
It's like the algos and the
retail just took at that point

1264
01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:52,880
it became self reinforcing and
it became a new reality.

1265
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:56,120
It's like the Matrix, like
things just become a reality.

1266
01:10:56,120 --> 01:10:57,760
We make we create our own
reality.

1267
01:10:58,280 --> 01:10:59,960
It's about like, let's put it
this way.

1268
01:11:00,480 --> 01:11:02,240
And there's a dangerous thing
about ChatGPT.

1269
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:05,720
Like it's like training ChatGPT
using Reddit.

1270
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:09,000
Like Reddit is just a bunch of
monkeys writing nonsense, right?

1271
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:11,880
So if you train Chacha BT on the
back of nonsense, well, it's

1272
01:11:11,880 --> 01:11:14,320
going to output you nonsense.
So it's the same thing with the

1273
01:11:14,320 --> 01:11:15,880
algos.
Like the algos are training on

1274
01:11:15,880 --> 01:11:18,240
the back of nonsense, so they
output nonsense.

1275
01:11:18,680 --> 01:11:21,200
So all these things they just
create like a, you know, they

1276
01:11:21,200 --> 01:11:25,320
create a reinforcing mechanism
whereby evaluation gets diluted.

1277
01:11:25,560 --> 01:11:27,760
And by the way, the biggest
idiots are the ones that are

1278
01:11:27,760 --> 01:11:32,160
using are the sell side.
The biggest it is actually the

1279
01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:38,560
sell side which work work
backwards from the share price

1280
01:11:38,760 --> 01:11:42,400
to get their price target.
So for example, you know Tesla

1281
01:11:42,400 --> 01:11:46,960
is running say they run up Tesla
to like 400 on the back of this

1282
01:11:46,960 --> 01:11:48,800
mechanism.
I said this self reinforcement

1283
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:52,320
mechanism, the retail guy
chasing it is actually smart.

1284
01:11:52,320 --> 01:11:56,000
He's making money.
The algo chasing it is not smart

1285
01:11:56,080 --> 01:11:59,920
but it's doing its job.
But then the sell side analyst

1286
01:11:59,920 --> 01:12:03,000
is going to come out and say oh
the $400.00 share price is

1287
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:07,440
justified if you look at a 2040
Tam of $5 trillion and if you

1288
01:12:07,440 --> 01:12:10,920
work backwards is trading on a
10 * P on a 2050 basis.

1289
01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:14,600
So that guy's the idiot.
OK just to just to be clear.

1290
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:18,600
Because that guy is going to
justify the stupidity based on

1291
01:12:18,600 --> 01:12:20,720
fundamentals when there's no
fundamentals involved.

1292
01:12:21,080 --> 01:12:23,760
Sorry for the rant but that's
kind of like we have to call out

1293
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:25,360
the idiots here and that's the
sell side.

1294
01:12:26,320 --> 01:12:28,160
I love the rant.
How do you how do you pace in

1295
01:12:28,160 --> 01:12:30,520
passive flows into that?
Because they've just been

1296
01:12:30,520 --> 01:12:34,240
massive the last couple decades
and just accelerating.

1297
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:39,320
Yeah, look, the passive flows
are a feature of the system and

1298
01:12:39,320 --> 01:12:41,840
you can't fight against it.
That's why.

1299
01:12:44,640 --> 01:12:48,680
That's why you know, when you do
shorts or when you look at the

1300
01:12:48,680 --> 01:12:50,640
index, you have to be tactical
about it.

1301
01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:55,200
Like the whole thing is like a
Ponzi scheme, which is fine, you

1302
01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:59,240
know, you don't really want to
bet against Ponzi schemes, but

1303
01:12:59,240 --> 01:13:01,160
you know, it's just more money
coming into the system.

1304
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:05,720
And that money benefits the big
stocks that are part of the

1305
01:13:05,720 --> 01:13:08,400
index.
And that's why, again, it feeds

1306
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:11,200
in this whole reinforcing
mechanism like Tesla's in the

1307
01:13:11,200 --> 01:13:13,000
indexes.
It will benefit from the index.

1308
01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:15,760
Nvidia's in the system, in the
index, it will benefit from the

1309
01:13:15,960 --> 01:13:20,240
index.
Having said that, as a

1310
01:13:20,240 --> 01:13:24,280
fundamental or tactical trader,
you probably will make more

1311
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:31,080
money finding the stocks outside
the index or coming in and out

1312
01:13:31,080 --> 01:13:34,680
of the index or whatever versus
just playing the passive game.

1313
01:13:34,760 --> 01:13:37,280
I mean, I'm talking about making
real money versus just a passive

1314
01:13:37,280 --> 01:13:39,760
investment.
But you know, this, this passive

1315
01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:43,600
thing also creates a lot of
distortions.

1316
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:45,960
And this is where, you know, it
gets quite exciting.

1317
01:13:46,680 --> 01:13:50,960
Like one of my best trades was
actually shorting SMCI when it

1318
01:13:50,960 --> 01:13:57,240
entered the S the S&P like last
year because they just ran it

1319
01:13:57,240 --> 01:14:01,760
into like an overvalued level
and it was, was a crappy

1320
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:03,760
company.
Like people were just gloating

1321
01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:05,240
that it's like an NVIDIA type
play.

1322
01:14:05,240 --> 01:14:07,680
It was a crappy company that had
issues afterwards.

1323
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:13,560
Like, but you know, the
overvaluation of SMCI when it

1324
01:14:13,560 --> 01:14:17,600
came into the index presented
like a great short opportunity.

1325
01:14:17,600 --> 01:14:19,720
I think it was like one of the
very, very few shorts that I did

1326
01:14:20,040 --> 01:14:24,440
all of last year.
So, you know, I, I don't like to

1327
01:14:24,440 --> 01:14:28,400
bet against passive.
I mean, I'm actually going along

1328
01:14:28,400 --> 01:14:31,440
with passive like happily going
along and, you know, giving

1329
01:14:31,440 --> 01:14:36,000
thanks as we float away into to
the moon.

1330
01:14:36,720 --> 01:14:41,920
But it does give opportunities.
It's, I don't want to look, you

1331
01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:46,520
know, I don't want to be
ungrateful for the opportunities

1332
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:51,280
that the passive system gives.
And by the way, like I had, I

1333
01:14:51,280 --> 01:14:57,240
was having this discussion with
someone last week, like he said,

1334
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:02,760
I have decided to stop trading
all together and I will be

1335
01:15:02,760 --> 01:15:06,680
allocating only in passive
because it worked over the last

1336
01:15:06,680 --> 01:15:10,600
10 years and it's going to keep
working for the next 10 years.

1337
01:15:12,440 --> 01:15:15,640
And I was telling him, so after
all the discussions we've had

1338
01:15:15,920 --> 01:15:19,080
all these years, that's the
conclusion you came up with?

1339
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:23,280
And he's like, yeah, so OK,
great.

1340
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:26,520
Well, let's not talk about
investing again together because

1341
01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:29,880
it was like, OK, you just
completely missed the whole

1342
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:32,320
point.
But anyway, whatever.

1343
01:15:32,320 --> 01:15:38,520
So you know, I'm not against
passive, but I just think

1344
01:15:38,520 --> 01:15:41,200
there's a lot of ways to skin
the cat and I think there's a

1345
01:15:41,200 --> 01:15:43,200
lot of ways to complement a
portfolio.

1346
01:15:43,200 --> 01:15:47,400
Like you look at Brazil versus
the S&P this year, you look at

1347
01:15:47,440 --> 01:15:50,160
you look at Platinum versus
Bitcoin this year, we're talking

1348
01:15:50,160 --> 01:15:53,480
about like 20% our performance
in both actually probably more

1349
01:15:55,280 --> 01:15:56,680
on things that no one talks
about.

1350
01:15:57,000 --> 01:15:59,560
And by the way, the thing with
the one thing we didn't talk

1351
01:15:59,560 --> 01:16:03,400
about, you know, this, this guy
that was telling me about

1352
01:16:03,400 --> 01:16:06,320
Passivite, I told him like, you
know what your net return was

1353
01:16:07,440 --> 01:16:09,520
this year?
He says, Oh yeah, 10%.

1354
01:16:09,520 --> 01:16:12,640
It's like, no, it wasn't 10%.
You made 10% on the S&P and you

1355
01:16:12,640 --> 01:16:14,600
lost 10% on the dollar.
Dude, you're flat.

1356
01:16:15,040 --> 01:16:17,880
You kind of just like ran to
stay, you know, to break even.

1357
01:16:19,080 --> 01:16:24,640
So if you didn't have the
European diversification, then

1358
01:16:25,680 --> 01:16:28,080
then you lost out.
You actually are poorer this

1359
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:29,640
year.
Like if you were just in the S&P

1360
01:16:29,640 --> 01:16:32,960
this year, you were poorer.
That's why you just have to be

1361
01:16:32,960 --> 01:16:34,640
smart in your passive
allocation.

1362
01:16:35,720 --> 01:16:38,120
You know, if you are in passive
allocation, you have to be smart

1363
01:16:38,120 --> 01:16:40,600
about it.
You can't be like the classic

1364
01:16:40,600 --> 01:16:43,960
Bridgewater model of like 6040.
You can't, you can't do that.

1365
01:16:43,960 --> 01:16:50,560
You have to be like equities
plus bonds if you must, like I

1366
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,800
hate bonds, but you know, if you
must plus commodities or

1367
01:16:54,800 --> 01:16:57,920
something, you know, something
back to the barbell approach,

1368
01:16:57,920 --> 01:17:01,160
something that will have like a
barbell that will save your butt

1369
01:17:02,120 --> 01:17:04,200
if the currency debates and
plays along, which it is playing

1370
01:17:04,200 --> 01:17:07,000
along.
Like, like I said, like it's you

1371
01:17:07,000 --> 01:17:11,840
know, this year the S&P return
is 0 in effect, like on a dollar

1372
01:17:11,840 --> 01:17:13,760
adjusted basis.
But not everyone's just cheering

1373
01:17:13,760 --> 01:17:16,320
about it, right?
So, so people don't even think

1374
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:18,160
about it.
That's how that's how

1375
01:17:19,640 --> 01:17:22,680
brainwashed they are that they
don't even think that this year

1376
01:17:22,680 --> 01:17:24,680
they broke even.
They just broke even.

1377
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:30,920
And this is going to have
implications because I don't

1378
01:17:30,920 --> 01:17:33,160
think people are ready for it, I
have to admit.

1379
01:17:35,320 --> 01:17:37,800
The golden age of grift man.
The golden age of grift.

1380
01:17:38,160 --> 01:17:41,080
It just brainwashes people,
makes them Dumber.

1381
01:17:41,240 --> 01:17:42,840
People forgot their maths, you
know.

1382
01:17:42,840 --> 01:17:47,200
No one does maths anymore.
Like you said, valuation matters

1383
01:17:47,200 --> 01:17:50,760
eventually, but common sense
matters the most.

1384
01:17:52,120 --> 01:17:54,600
You balance cynicism with
optimism.

1385
01:17:55,240 --> 01:17:57,800
You laugh at the grift, the
shop, but you still play the

1386
01:17:57,800 --> 01:18:01,360
game.
How do you keep from just being

1387
01:18:01,360 --> 01:18:09,120
consumed by the absurdity?
Because our our guiding light

1388
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:12,400
and our beacon is our motto.
Once you realize it's all

1389
01:18:12,400 --> 01:18:15,040
nonsense, it starts to make
sense.

1390
01:18:18,040 --> 01:18:20,840
That's fantastic.
I think that's a perfect spot to

1391
01:18:21,240 --> 01:18:23,200
leave the conversation.
The shrub.

1392
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:25,760
It's been a pleasure.
Loved having you back on.

1393
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:29,000
Everyone should check out your
sub stack to search the shrub

1394
01:18:29,000 --> 01:18:30,760
and we'll Chuck it in the show.
As well shrub.

1395
01:18:30,760 --> 01:18:33,120
Stack rub stack.
Thanks a bunch for joining us,

1396
01:18:33,240 --> 01:18:35,200
always great to chat.
Thank you so much.

1397
01:18:35,200 --> 01:18:37,760
It was great having you guys.
Who would have thought that a

1398
01:18:37,760 --> 01:18:39,920
talking shrub could be so
insightful?

1399
01:18:40,120 --> 01:18:43,640
So knowledgeable and so great to
chat with and it is all made

1400
01:18:43,640 --> 01:18:46,560
possible thanks to our fantastic
partners Mate Sandvik Ground

1401
01:18:46,560 --> 01:18:50,400
Support, Focus, the platform by
Market Tech and iMac.

1402
01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:52,320
Get your tickets for the
conference in late October.

1403
01:18:52,600 --> 01:18:57,160
Uduru money minus Uduru.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

1404
01:18:57,440 --> 01:18:59,840
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

1405
01:18:59,840 --> 01:19:02,400
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

1406
01:19:02,760 --> 01:19:03,960
and you need to read out a
disclaimer.