Dec. 16, 2024

Rio’s Stausholm makes his defining bet

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We get into the weeds on Rio Tinto’s huge A$15b bet on lithium, picking over all the ins and outs, before discussing the best and worst performing commodities and miners.

Next up we each get a performance review of our contributions over the past year, before rounding up with some predictions for the year to come.

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(0:00:00)Introduction

(0:02:09)Rio's big bet on lithium

(0:25:11)The best/worst commods of '24

(0:42:00)Money of Mine performance reviews

(0:51:01)2025 predictions

1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,440
Ah, that sounds like Christmas
Friday money monitors.

2
00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:08,440
We are.
I'm just excited last week and

3
00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:11,760
it is the best season.
Last Daily Show this one.

4
00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:14,400
It is last. 1.
For the year, babe, we've got

5
00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,360
bloody fundy predictions coming
up.

6
00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,720
We've got another one of the
let's just tout the best

7
00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:24,200
resource journalist in Australia
in the world is coming on at the

8
00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:26,600
end of the week.
It's all go mate.

9
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,560
What a year in 2024 in the
mining industry.

10
00:00:30,360 --> 00:00:33,000
Mining industries not made
possible without these on screen

11
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:37,440
here, boys and girl, the drill
rigs and you're looking at a K

12
00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,040
drill one in action.
Have a look at mate Arsene

13
00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:42,160
Dorman.
Holes have created the past,

14
00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:45,280
present and future of the mining
industry.

15
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,160
And as it says right here,
sample matters.

16
00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,480
Thank you, Kay Drill for being
the best sampler in the industry

17
00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:56,360
and up there as well as the best
RC and diamond driller in the

18
00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,480
industry and our longest ever
partner.

19
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:00,760
Sample.
Does matter.

20
00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,120
Big thank you.
OK Drill.

21
00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:03,080
OK, Merry.
Christmas.

22
00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:03,760
Kay.
Drill.

23
00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:05,239
Oh, there's.
No, there's no.

24
00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,000
Druber, I'm thinking of you
mate, because I'm drinking.

25
00:01:08,320 --> 00:01:10,240
There's no mines without
drilling and there's no money in

26
00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,120
mine without our great partners
like Kay Drill so.

27
00:01:12,320 --> 00:01:13,840
There's no money in mine without
mining.

28
00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:15,800
Fatty, what are we talking about
today, mate?

29
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:21,520
Circular reference.
I'm not talking about much.

30
00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:26,680
You're going to talk about Rio,
Rio's big lithium bet.

31
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,960
Yeah, Ali, you've got a.
What have you got?

32
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,160
I'll let you.
Describe doing our internal

33
00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:36,000
performance reviews live
externally externally.

34
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,080
Interesting, very interesting.
For a bit of fun.

35
00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,040
And Ricardino?
Yeah, a bit of a like I wanted

36
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:46,160
to just kind of look at how the
year went for a bunch of the

37
00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,000
stocks that we follow, who
outperformed, who

38
00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,400
underperformed, you know, and,
and what do we, what do we make

39
00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,720
of the the year that was for the
equities that we follow?

40
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:58,600
Should we put some just do my
segment?

41
00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:01,440
Could be let's just do wild
predictions, which we do every

42
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,480
month anyway.
It's like what?

43
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:04,720
I've got nothing to talk.
About we'll.

44
00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:06,640
Just talk about shit that might
happen.

45
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,759
Never.
It might do that right, JD?

46
00:02:09,759 --> 00:02:12,520
Take her away, mate.
Rio doubles down on lithium.

47
00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,920
Yeah, Argentina.
Why this one really stood out to

48
00:02:15,920 --> 00:02:21,000
me is because I think this is
how the the public and how

49
00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,400
investors will reflect on Jacob
Stalzums tenure when we you know

50
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:27,760
look back on it in five or ten
years time I.

51
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,160
Don't know what the reflection
is going to be positive or

52
00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,040
negative yet.
That's an open ended question,

53
00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,800
isn't it?
But if you just look at the the

54
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:38,360
quantum of the bet, so they
press go on AUS $2.5 billion

55
00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,880
investment in Rincon on Friday,
that's come not long after AUS

56
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:48,120
$6.7 billion acquisition of
Arcadium, yet to be finalised,

57
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,880
but looks by all accounts like
it's gone through vote on the

58
00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:55,200
23rd of December.
You've also got US 825,000,000

59
00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,280
being spent when they bought
Rincon that completed in early

60
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,680
2022.
Plus US 330 million has been

61
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,800
invested in Rincon's starter
plant, which is not yet

62
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,280
complete.
On top of that you've got all

63
00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,200
the M&A that they've done
working on DLA and other sorts

64
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,520
of technology, not to mention
Yadar, which they have owned for

65
00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:16,840
the best part of two decades
now.

66
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:20,760
And I would as you guessed that
they spent hundreds of millions

67
00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,520
there as well.
So well over US ten billion,

68
00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:29,560
well north of 15 billion Aussie
dollars invested in lithium in

69
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,840
you know, most of that has come
in 2 1/2 years sort of time, 33

70
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,640
odd years time between 22 and
where we are today.

71
00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:39,280
So that's why it really, really
stands out to me.

72
00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:44,000
And you know, you put that in
the context of none of the other

73
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:47,480
majors doing a similar sort of
investment really makes an

74
00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:51,280
intriguing from my perspective.
And is there being cases

75
00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,040
previously where BHP and Rio
have had such differing views on

76
00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,160
a commodity?
Well, you've got pod Ash is a

77
00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,800
big one currently going on that
that BHP have gone pretty hard

78
00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,000
at.
Yeah, right.

79
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:11,320
I mean, BHP didn't match Rio's
investment in aluminium and

80
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,000
through through Alka, not not to
that extent.

81
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:16,760
Like there was a lot of guesses
at the time that they might and

82
00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:20,800
they might have a swing, but.
He went went big on shale oil

83
00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:22,400
and gas.
Rio didn't.

84
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,800
On flip side, you know, Rio
virus acquisition, I think of

85
00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,720
CRA, you know, it's it's had a
pretty healthy mineral sands

86
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,080
kind of portfolio.
BHP has never done that.

87
00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:32,960
There's there are examples,
yeah.

88
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:35,160
They're the ones that sort of
stand out.

89
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,160
And so though, and and sounds
like a bit on both sides where

90
00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,560
they've gone big on things that
haven't worked.

91
00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,080
They've each got their fair
share of losers.

92
00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,800
Yeah, yeah.
And the the thing that is, yeah,

93
00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,160
obviously just being the cash
printer for both of them is

94
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,240
being the bulks.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely.

95
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,200
So I'll run through the Rincon
investment to start with

96
00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,080
quickly.
We get a bit of scope on this

97
00:04:58,080 --> 00:04:59,320
one.
But essentially like I said, 2

98
00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,600
1/2 billion US to expand it.
It's a 3000 tonne per annum

99
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,360
lithium carbonate equivalent
starter plan right now they want

100
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,120
to go to 60,000 tonnes per
annum.

101
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,920
That is, you know, north of
400,000 tonnes of SC six

102
00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,520
equivalent for us folks in WA
that don't understand bronze,

103
00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,840
three years of construction then
three years of ramp up.

104
00:05:18,840 --> 00:05:22,000
So this isn't going to be at
nameplate capacity for quite

105
00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,800
some time.
It's a, it's a Brian project,

106
00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,840
obviously, but with heavy
reliance on, on DLA, which I'll

107
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,840
get into in greater detail in a
moment.

108
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,240
It's it's no surprise that
they've done it.

109
00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:33,720
They've spoken about this for
quite some time.

110
00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,320
Just a couple weeks ago at the
investor seminar, Jacob said

111
00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,280
they're going to a board
meeting, I think somewhere in,

112
00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,160
in Canada.
And you know, all indications

113
00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,600
were that this was going to go
ahead.

114
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,640
They claimed to have increased
the resource since they made the

115
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:50,760
acquisition almost three years
ago by by 60%.

116
00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:53,200
So they're talking about 12
million tonnes of lithium

117
00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,840
carbonate contained within
Rincon.

118
00:05:56,840 --> 00:06:00,400
And then of course you look
around in Argentina when the

119
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,640
Arcadian transaction completes
and they'll have quite a few

120
00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,320
projects in Argentina there.
But this asset alone will have a

121
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:11,800
40 year mine life and can't
leave out the fact that the REGI

122
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,200
policy that the new Malay
government in Argentina has put

123
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:21,200
in place has been a a decent
factor in this investment going

124
00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:22,960
going ahead.
So the concessions?

125
00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,080
Of that policy that are are so
attractive to the.

126
00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:29,760
So the two ones that stand out
are corporate tax rate dropping

127
00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,600
from 35 to 25%.
You've got, you know, to the

128
00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,840
sort of finance folks in
accelerated depreciation which

129
00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,880
helps with the the payback
period and all these sorts of

130
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,440
things.
And, you know, to get this over

131
00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,280
the line, you had to invest more
than $200 million so that

132
00:06:45,280 --> 00:06:47,080
they're available to everyone
there.

133
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:51,400
Hence we're seeing the HP and
others get get attracted to

134
00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,400
them.
And any other key one is the

135
00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:56,800
foreign sort of exchange
controls, you know, a problem

136
00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,800
for a long time it's not been
able to get the cash out of the

137
00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,400
country.
And the government has sort of

138
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:05,120
relaxed that to incentivize
foreign investment in Argentina.

139
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,080
Super interesting mate.
Yeah.

140
00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:11,240
What do you make?
Every is kind of Argentinian

141
00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,040
lithium future.
It's, it's pretty fascinating.

142
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,360
I'm, I'm no expert on, on all
their projects there, but it, it

143
00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:19,760
has been sort of said to me that
Rincon's not the best project

144
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,080
that they have there, although
they don't have their hands on

145
00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,160
the other projects yet.
But I'll just flash up this map

146
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,480
and you can see they talk about
having three, what they call

147
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,520
super sites.
So you can see Rincon and then

148
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,000
you can see to the north Olaros
and Kochari, and then to the

149
00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:35,760
South of that Saldivida and
Phoenix.

150
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,080
And, you know, I think on the
margins, it's it's positive that

151
00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,400
they're in three different
provinces.

152
00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:43,960
I think that helps with not
having too many eggs in one

153
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,760
basket with all the eggs already
being in an Argentinian basket.

154
00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,880
But you can balance at least
sort of provincially those those

155
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,040
three against one another.
But yeah, it's a it's a big bet

156
00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,640
on on Argentina.
Where is?

157
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,560
Oh, no, Atacama, the the big
ones, the Albemarle SQMS,

158
00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:04,720
they're.
So they're on they're.

159
00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:06,600
West of that, they're on the
chilly side.

160
00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,400
Yeah, that's exactly right.
So they're they're on the on the

161
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:12,600
other side of the Andes to those
ones that we can see obviously

162
00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,400
with just Rio assets slash
Arcadia mass.

163
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,920
It's been shown in that map.
But yeah, you've obviously got a

164
00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:21,960
host of other projects in in the
region.

165
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:29,480
And JD, this project you said is
will rely pretty heavily on DLE

166
00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:30,800
tech, right?
Yeah.

167
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,559
How's that all kind of work
given that sort of still quite

168
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,039
national at this stage and still
getting proven up?

169
00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:41,080
Yeah, a heavy reliance ally on,
on proprietary DLE tech, which

170
00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,720
you don't get an awful lot of
colour on that, you know,

171
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,440
they're not forthcoming because
they want to keep it proprietary

172
00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:49,480
and to themselves.
So, you know, it's, it's novel,

173
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,080
it hasn't been done at any large
scale.

174
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,680
And it's kind of intriguing.
They've got this starter plant

175
00:08:53,680 --> 00:08:56,720
that they talk about that's not
even completed yet, but they've

176
00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,480
got a level of confidence to
press go on a on a much bigger

177
00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,160
scale.
So something must be going

178
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,200
right.
Also hard to say how much of

179
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,480
that came in, you know, with
arcadium again, not even

180
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,360
completed yet.
So it seems like this has come

181
00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,160
from the the Rio side of things
or perhaps they've got

182
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:17,200
confidence that arcadium plus
the technology that they've

183
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,080
advanced will get them to a
level that they're comfortable

184
00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:22,320
with.
But this is not technology that

185
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,160
has been run at a sustained
period of time producing battery

186
00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:27,240
gate chemicals.
The starter plan hasn't even

187
00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,320
produced battery grade
chemicals.

188
00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:32,160
It produced its very first
lithium just last month and will

189
00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,440
be completed in the first half
of next year.

190
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:41,000
So yeah, there's heavy reliance
on DLE for this project and

191
00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,080
there's not a lot of clarity.
There was an assumption I

192
00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:46,640
remember learning about last
year that DLA would have quicker

193
00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:49,920
ramp up times.
They give us a three year ramp

194
00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,880
up, but I don't know if they're
at like, you know, 85% within

195
00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:57,400
two years or or whatever.
You don't know how gradual that

196
00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:59,720
ramp up is.
So I think it's fair to say that

197
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:02,080
it hasn't won over everyone.
If you look at various sort of

198
00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:08,040
reports and equity research
reports out there, you can see a

199
00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,600
lot of people are marking this
down, marking it at book value,

200
00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,040
not ascribing too much value to
it.

201
00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,920
I mean, on the on the kind of
positive side, when we spoke

202
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,520
with various people in the
lithium sector last year, I

203
00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,840
remember a lot of people being
very sceptical that DLA would be

204
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:30,560
around in a big way, 20-30.
I do kind of have a gut feel

205
00:10:30,560 --> 00:10:33,400
that that scepticism has has
waned to an extent.

206
00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,320
It does seem like there's been
some sort of breakthroughs.

207
00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:37,800
I'm not sure if you guys have a
different sort of gut feel on

208
00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:42,160
that, but this, you know, this
is a big investment to be making

209
00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,960
on a reliance on DLA.
It does seem like it's gone

210
00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,480
ahead here, plus other sort of
positive news in China with what

211
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,520
they're doing out there.
But yeah, it seems like it'll be

212
00:10:51,560 --> 00:10:55,760
a factor pre pre 20-30 in my
eyes as we stand.

213
00:10:55,960 --> 00:11:00,240
Is that and is that, is this DLA
purely because of climate, this

214
00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,560
area, it's not amenable to
evaporation?

215
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,800
I'm not sure if I'd say purely.
I get, I guess you'd want it to

216
00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,120
stack up on economics first and
first and foremost.

217
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,160
And then you have the added
benefits of using way less land,

218
00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:22,040
less water, you know, all these
sorts of positives that come off

219
00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,360
the back of it.
You know, water security in that

220
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:25,840
that part water is just not that
abundant.

221
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,400
So if you can get local
communities on board all these

222
00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:35,160
things by by using less of it.
But yeah, you're developing DLE

223
00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,520
because you think there's going
to be an economic benefit from

224
00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:39,280
it.
That's that's first and foremost

225
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,280
what what you're doing.
And you know, maybe part and

226
00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:46,160
parcel that comes with using
less water, using less land,

227
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,840
being able to get approvals
through quicker.

228
00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,520
That improves the the economics
of a project, you know,

229
00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:55,160
simultaneously.
So kind of kind of goes hand in

230
00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:59,160
hand with with one another.
But it, it reminds me in concept

231
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:03,880
wise reminds me of North Parks
for Rio in terms of North parks

232
00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:06,920
of the pretty.
It was the first block cave mine

233
00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:08,840
in Australia.
I think it was the first block

234
00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:11,440
cave mine that Rio did.
So that that was it.

235
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:15,520
Then I did the Argyle one.
Then that led to AU Tolgoi.

236
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:21,080
And I think this, it's a similar
concept I'd be using with DLA.

237
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,760
It's like you have to start at
some point, learn and then years

238
00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,960
and years down the road and look
at what asset and the knowledge

239
00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:31,760
they have of block caving now
that goes into IU Tollboy from

240
00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,160
all the previous operations that
they would have spent a lot of

241
00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,600
money on.
And I think DLA will run a

242
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,680
similar course, yeah.
Yeah, absolutely.

243
00:12:42,680 --> 00:12:43,640
You got to start somewhere
there.

244
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,040
There's another benefit I didn't
even mention, but the

245
00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,960
expectations that recoveries are
way higher.

246
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,800
So you get way more, you know,
sort of bang for your buck when

247
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:52,800
it comes to your resource, the
bronze that you're pulling out

248
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:54,960
the ground.
There's an expectation that

249
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:59,840
recoveries sit around 80% plus
sort of level as opposed to 50%

250
00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,120
ish with more traditional
evaporative bond.

251
00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,840
So all all goes hand in hand and
that again improves the

252
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,720
economics.
So, you know, continuing on with

253
00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,280
that theme, let's sort of talk a
bit about what the actual

254
00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:15,960
economics of this project.
Very simple capital intensity US

255
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:21,400
$44,000 per tonne if you use a
$2.5 billion number and a 57,000

256
00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:25,400
tonne per annum operation, which
comes in, you know, compared to

257
00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:30,000
a normal pond high, compared to
what people expect for DLE,

258
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,160
there's the expectation that
CapEx is a bit higher, but

259
00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,640
hopefully, yeah, you know, your
OpEx, Oh yeah, your place on the

260
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:39,520
cost curve is a bit lower.
That's the way it is with all

261
00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,520
daily, sorry with all brines as
well.

262
00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:43,280
They are.
It's high CapEx intensity, but

263
00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:46,360
yeah, but you have such low OpEx
that, yeah.

264
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:49,480
It's ideally offset it.
Yeah, 100%.

265
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,800
Do you need to get me me to get
my payback spreadsheet back out?

266
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,760
Just finance made, right?
It's it's they're ready to go.

267
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,160
It's named in the templates
templates.

268
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,840
In, in terms of the, the overall
CapEx for Rio doesn't change

269
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,240
things And like that is
something that investors have

270
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,640
been like laser focused on.
You know they, they talk about

271
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:14,240
sort of 9 1/2 to $11 billion
CapEx this year slash next year.

272
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,400
And importantly, if you, if you
look at the sort of chart that

273
00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,200
we'll show now you can see the
breakdown they'd flagged 3

274
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,400
billion in gross capital for
FY25.

275
00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,200
Obviously that's not all going
to be Rincon next year to be

276
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:29,200
spread over a few years, but
that is that is factored into

277
00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,560
it.
But looking at Rincon's overall

278
00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,240
economics, again, it's super
hard and I wish we could do it

279
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,080
with more detail.
But it being Rio, you don't, you

280
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,200
know, they don't have to reveal
too much of the detail here.

281
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,320
But using some basic sort of
assumptions and I'll borrow a

282
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,520
bit from what RBC put out here.
But if you assume C1 cost base

283
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,640
around what all the Rose has
plus your standard royalties,

284
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:57,520
5%, again, that's the sort of
factor of Rigi standardised the

285
00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:01,080
royalties a bit.
And your normal sort of GNA

286
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,080
expenses, realisation costs that
you see in that part of the

287
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,960
world plus a three year build, 3
year ramp up, you're getting an

288
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:15,560
IRR of 15% MPV of US 4 billion.
So not knockout with the key

289
00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:19,280
assumption being US $15,000 a
tonne lithium carbonate

290
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,320
equivalent pricing.
So what's the?

291
00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:26,040
Pricing today, JD.
Closer to 10, yeah.

292
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,760
So I'm not sure if that really
helps anyone because there's so

293
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:33,440
many assumptions going into that
and nobody knows what the price

294
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,400
is going to be in three years
time.

295
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,440
But Rio have to have to plug
something in the model to to get

296
00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:43,000
a bit of a a feel for it.
And that's what they've they've

297
00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,280
kind of gone with.
So it's it's, it's no knockout,

298
00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:51,520
but again, Rio aren't targeting
those massive knockouts.

299
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,040
You know, the band is a bit
tighter.

300
00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:57,200
The IR is usually sort of in and
around that 20% plus kind of

301
00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,000
range and what?
They want is super long life.

302
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,000
Exactly 40 year life what we're
talking about here.

303
00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:08,320
So this proprietary DLA
technology, quote unquote, does

304
00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,040
that mean they can then sell
this technology?

305
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,960
They will be the if it works,
they own the technology and the

306
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:15,760
process.
Fascinating point mate.

307
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:17,400
What?
What would you do?

308
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:21,360
Like if if you are positioned
lower on the cost curve because

309
00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,320
you've got it, that puts you at
an advantage to everyone?

310
00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:28,400
Yeah.
You run the risk of selling it

311
00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:30,360
out and someone's just going to
sort of backs off what you've

312
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,120
kind of done in a way, you know,
that's the kind of way the tech

313
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,520
world works in a way.
You'd have to price it

314
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,120
appropriately or you just try
and reap enough rewards from

315
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:42,520
your own project and not
selling.

316
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,680
Don't flatten the cost curve,
Yeah.

317
00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,080
But can't.
What's the defence ability of

318
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:48,960
it?
Proprietary technology can't

319
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,120
Like that's who's ever got the
most money in court, isn't it?

320
00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,200
If someone else wants to get
their own process.

321
00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:56,720
Oh.
That's not going to help you if.

322
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,240
If who owns Who owns cyanide
leaching for gold?

323
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,240
Yeah, yeah, there's, there's
different, there's different

324
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,480
sulphide heat bleaching
technologies out there all kind

325
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,119
of competing for the same pie in
the copper world have who have

326
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,880
proprietary tech.
I also think with DLA, it's

327
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:16,240
unlikely that you'll have like
it's proprietary technology as a

328
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,800
cookie cutter for other other
operations.

329
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:22,119
Like from what I kind of
understand, it's going to be

330
00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:26,760
super bespoke to rink on this
tech and then, you know, some

331
00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:29,760
other assets going to have super
bespoke tech which might, you

332
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,800
know, might impact a different
part of the flow sheet slightly.

333
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,920
And they still call it DLA, but
there's a lot of variability in

334
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:37,880
this stuff.
A. 100% let's not forget like

335
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:42,640
DLA is a catch all phrase.
There is lots of different DLA

336
00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:48,440
technologies out there or
utilising various sort of yeah

337
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,640
technologies to extract the
lithium could be focusing on

338
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,800
different sort of parts.
But it is, you know, there's

339
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,200
like what Sunrise and for
example, are doing is going to

340
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:01,240
be very different to what what
Rio Tinto are doing, so.

341
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,280
Yeah, and the cost advantages at
least of what Arcadian are doing

342
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,480
like I think they they still
have to pre concentrate in in

343
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,080
ponds.
It's not like you just, you

344
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,880
know, went straight into the
aquifer and happy just jammer in

345
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,640
these massive cost.
You still have to, you know, you

346
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:18,080
still have ponds and all that
sort of stuff.

347
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,800
Yeah, yeah.
I mean, they claim to be using

348
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:25,240
some form of DLA since the the
90s for the early 2000s in

349
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:29,120
Argentina.
So might not be the the sort of

350
00:18:29,120 --> 00:18:31,800
conception that we have of what
DLA is that might be quite

351
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,960
different going forward.
But yeah, in terms of just

352
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:38,120
making that process of getting
the bronze out and getting the

353
00:18:38,120 --> 00:18:40,800
lithium out of the bronze, you
know, there's there's tech that

354
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,400
is used along the way already.
And it's just a question of to

355
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:47,480
what degree is that tech used?
This sounds like a potential

356
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:54,080
2025 rabbit hole to go down to
fully understand DLA and the as

357
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,120
a holistic and what are the
subsets of it.

358
00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:02,080
Yeah, You wonder how much the
the WA Hard Rock producers are

359
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,120
looking at it.
You know, obviously all you can

360
00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:07,000
do is really focus on making
your thing as as good as

361
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,080
possible.
But I don't know, maybe maybe

362
00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,160
BHB have done a bit of work and
that's what sort of put them on

363
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:18,280
ice on on lithium as well.
Thinking that cost curve widens.

364
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,920
It's not as steep as people
think because of DLA.

365
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,160
That's one possible one possible
risk.

366
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,720
Might be really steep at the
back end like I know.

367
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:32,320
That's, that's what Rio would be
hoping, isn't it, for a sort of

368
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,240
say so.
I mean, I think for, for Jakob

369
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,600
Salesman to reflect on the, the
overall bet.

370
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,080
There's a, there's a fair bit of
risks.

371
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,720
I mean, first and foremost that
they haven't even finalised the

372
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,560
water permits at, at Rincon.
That'll be something they need

373
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,360
to knock out.
They've got it to sort of 50,000

374
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,760
tonne per annum capacity.
They need to just get it over

375
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,200
the line.
But yeah, you know, your big

376
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:56,000
risk tech changes, the sodium
ions start dominating some parts

377
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,200
of the, you know, the
electrification of

378
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,920
transportation sector who kind
of knows the cost curve.

379
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,840
That's probably the biggest risk
out there.

380
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,440
Argentina is is a risk.
It's not been the stablest

381
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,200
country over over a long time
horizon.

382
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:16,000
So, yeah, I mean, like, like I
said, I find it fascinating

383
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,560
because you're you're running a
company like this and you've.

384
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,440
You've got to take a view, you
know, you can't just do nothing.

385
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,280
There's always going to be risk.
And it's so interesting to me

386
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,560
that that Ray have gone with
this one and all the other

387
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,160
miners kind of haven't.
And, you know, that could end up

388
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:36,440
with them having a a glowing low
cost business or it could end up

389
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,440
being a whole lot worse than
that.

390
00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:40,720
Yeah.
You guys got a gut feel on on

391
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,080
how this one goes?
Points to him I think like early

392
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,320
days, but but you could just see
how many Arcadium shareholders

393
00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,000
were super upset like he's
picked up pretty strategic

394
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:56,000
assets bottom of the market.
You can't always do that.

395
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,160
You know, it's certainly,
certainly counter cyclical M&A

396
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,480
like time will tell whether that
capital could have been

397
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:05,280
allocated that elsewhere.
But you know it's an industry

398
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,280
where you have to take some
risks sometimes, but you want to

399
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,440
minimise the downside when you
do take those sorts of risks.

400
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:11,960
I think I think points to him so
far.

401
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:17,880
I think let's think of every
scenario if if they become a

402
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,240
dominant player in the lithium
industry, there's like the world

403
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,840
needs lithium.
So if they can be the lowest

404
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:26,520
cost producer, they will
survive.

405
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:33,080
And if lithium has these sparky
points and they're the a really

406
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,280
big wouldn't say it.
They're a first mover on DLA by

407
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,240
the sounds overall like if
they're going to be the one that

408
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:45,000
really, yeah, in size and
they're if it is bloody a bit

409
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,520
volatile, they bloody those
peaks and they embed themselves

410
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,440
in the lithium industry and
they've got scale.

411
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,480
They're going to make a shit
load of cash in whatever period

412
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,120
that's for and they can survive,
control the industry.

413
00:21:57,120 --> 00:22:02,880
So it's I think being that first
mover might be beneficial for

414
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,240
them.
Yeah, it's just fascinating.

415
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:05,520
Because that I what's going to
happen?

416
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,440
No, I mean, it's like it's kind
of cyclical on, on lithium, but

417
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,840
then it's, you know, you, it's,
it's that added layer of taking

418
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,880
a bet on this sort of very, you
know, quickly kind of developing

419
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:20,320
new technology as well.
And Jay is if, if you get both

420
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:24,040
of them right far out, what a
what a great call to make.

421
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,480
But there's obviously still a
fair bit to to play out, but

422
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:31,840
that's fascinating.
Long term view, you can't, you

423
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,160
can't be short term when you're
when you're real, right.

424
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,920
Things only only going to start
in 2028.

425
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,000
So yeah.
How much?

426
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,800
How big are they going to say
arcadium in this combined?

427
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,840
What's?
They're talking about 225,000

428
00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:50,320
tonnes of capacity they put in
their chart by 20 of.

429
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,200
Carbonite.
Carbonite.

430
00:22:52,360 --> 00:22:55,040
So what time's that buys?
Is it 6-7?

431
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,320
Yeah, 7 plus ish so.
What's that 1.4 spot equivalent?

432
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,640
192 and spot equivalent.
They say that by 2028, but that

433
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,560
includes 60 from Rincon, which I
found a bit puzzling because

434
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,120
it's, you know, capacity, but
it's not actually producing that

435
00:23:10,120 --> 00:23:12,400
By 2028.
You've obviously got the the

436
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,000
ramp up.
Yeah, period.

437
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,800
But maybe there's some sort of
growth with with Solarosa, other

438
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,640
sort of assets that they they
have there.

439
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,080
Who kind of knows.
Yeah.

440
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,440
But yeah, they'll be dominant
player in in the lithium market

441
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,960
in a few years time.
Very good, JD.

442
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,640
Nice ally.
If you're bloody, would you?

443
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,240
Would you work in the Argentine
desert?

444
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,400
JD, Would you?
Would you want to follow Rio on

445
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:36,800
the lithium expedition?
Pretty.

446
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,120
Pretty beautiful part of the
world.

447
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:43,320
Altitude, mate, a man with your
lungs, I reckon you'd handle it.

448
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,360
I've heard Buenos Aires is quite
nice as well mate.

449
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:50,680
Well mate, if if you want to hit
him up for a job go ahead.

450
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,200
If working in Argentina the
altitude is not your cup of tea,

451
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,760
why don't you stay at a low
elevation and be MC side tipper

452
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,200
driver for saltpush?
Breathe easy.

453
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:02,880
Breathe.
Easy, they just have the window

454
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,880
down.
Just suck in that beautiful WIA

455
00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:11,560
at low altitude and you can be
just fine driving one of these

456
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,880
beautiful machines.
Can you think of the fact that

457
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,560
you can pitch like picture this
for a perfect day?

458
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,480
You can drive these trucks,
check out the beautiful arid

459
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,360
wilderness of WA and get paid
for it.

460
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,280
Go around the stake.
Move and do it almost did that

461
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,320
for free though wouldn't yeah
it's.

462
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:33,240
So funny that I wrote I would do
that for free.

463
00:24:34,360 --> 00:24:35,840
You would you?
Would.

464
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,840
To be a privilege.
Mate, best dirt movers in WA and

465
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,680
that's bloody.
That's hauling dirt from shit

466
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,200
point A to shit point B because
the client doesn't want to do

467
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:46,040
it.
It's just too hard.

468
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,440
Salt Bush do that mate.
Earth moving bloody just

469
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,200
building roads, dams, equipment,
all crusher feed rehab.

470
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,640
Just pick a word from the mining
dictionary.

471
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,360
Salt Bush do it.
They do it.

472
00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:01,880
Merry Christmas, Saltbush.
Thanks very much, Saltbush

473
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:03,280
Contracting.
Go saltbush.

474
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:04,960
Thanks.
Thanks very much for doing all

475
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,400
the shit stuff.
Exactly, they they just handle

476
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:08,080
everything for you.
Ohh.

477
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,080
Shit of the better go salt
righty.

478
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:18,680
Our Next up, reflecting on 2024.
Yes, yes, 24.

479
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:20,240
Yes.
I, I'd, yeah.

480
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,640
Thought I'd just look back.
Yeah, a little bit.

481
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,320
Maybe even quiz, Quiz.
You guys, I hope you didn't look

482
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:26,920
at the answers.
Ahead of time, I definitely

483
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:28,720
didn't.
What do you, what do you reckon

484
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,800
the the the best performing
commodity year to date was by

485
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:36,160
percentage terms, Yeah.
Yeah, I reckon 1.

486
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,200
Of those weird ones.
I had I had this conversation

487
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,160
with you last week, so yeah, I
stubbed myself there.

488
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:41,800
You're.
Eliminated.

489
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:47,600
I'm gonna go bulk site.
I have that in my.

490
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,760
It's kind of close, yeah.
Or alumina.

491
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,960
A look like a that's for, for a,
for a mainstream commodity.

492
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,400
That's pretty a pretty good
guess.

493
00:25:55,400 --> 00:26:02,400
Yeah, Yeah, Ali.
Ali Aluminium while we're on the

494
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,520
topic.
No, I thought it would have been

495
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,440
bulk site or aluminium as well.
I would say gold, but no.

496
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:10,400
Yeah.
I mean, in relative terms, it's

497
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,640
like gold had a Goodyear, but
it's.

498
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:12,960
Right.
Give us another guess.

499
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:14,360
OK, so if it's.
Can I give you?

500
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,320
Can I give you not?
Mine not mainstream.

501
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:19,640
Not mainstream, no, but it's
flavour of the month kind of

502
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,080
thing.
Antimony, yeah.

503
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:22,840
Antimony, yeah.
Antimony.

504
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:28,720
Antimony up 212% I'll I'll, I'll
put up the chart for the money

505
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,400
mine if you can have a look.
I've done every single kind of

506
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,560
commodity I can can think of
there and you can just see, you

507
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,440
know, the full 12 month
performance, 16th of December

508
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,360
last year to this year.
How did they go?

509
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,160
And yeah, totally like you can,
you can see there the bulks came

510
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,440
off a bit.
You had the bases sort of

511
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:50,000
varied, but not do too much.
You know, cobalt, tragic as

512
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,200
usual.
You know, gold, gold and silver.

513
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,080
You know, stellar years.
The rest of the precious?

514
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,920
Not so much.
The cocaine coal down 35%, yeah.

515
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:01,480
And that was out because it was
fucking off it.

516
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,360
Was elevated, but you know,
like, as Alex Campbell pointed

517
00:27:04,360 --> 00:27:07,760
out, Mongolia started delivering
to China again, Yeah.

518
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,760
And that that displaces seaborne
coal from the market, right.

519
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:16,440
And then on the energy front,
like pretty, yeah, muted impact

520
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:21,480
there, Lithium, just fucking
catastrophic aluminium bauxite

521
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,920
star performance, like just
given the fragility in that

522
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,920
market as discussed by aluminium
Allen.

523
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,800
And then you've got the yeah,
the rando stuff like antimony,

524
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,480
germanium, gallium, like they,
they flew, right.

525
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,120
And I think this tweet from re
Speculator sort of put it best.

526
00:27:36,120 --> 00:27:39,080
He says the stuff that ramped
this year is either stuff China

527
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,600
Inc can't ramp right now, IE
bauxite, or stuff China Inc

528
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,280
decided to not share with the
rest of the world.

529
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,680
Antimony, germanium, gallium, et
cetera.

530
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,000
It's a good one.
Interesting.

531
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,840
Most Yeah, it's an interesting.
One it is, it totally is that's

532
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,800
gold yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I mean they're buying, they are

533
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,160
ramping that, Yeah, it depends
their.

534
00:27:58,160 --> 00:27:59,480
Body in a different way yeah,
the.

535
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,000
Question, I have said like look,
look at bulksort and aluminium,

536
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,880
right?
Why do you think, do you think

537
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:09,440
it's taking a bit of time for
that to flow through to

538
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,240
aluminium?
Like obviously that's gone up

539
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,440
too, but not as much as you
reckon.

540
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,760
That'll probably be more of a
next year thing.

541
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:17,720
Yeah.
This was something we've talked

542
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,240
about a bit with, with, with,
with Alan.

543
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,520
But you, you, you had this
dynamic where a lot of the, the

544
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,760
smelters, refineries in that, in
that industry where we're

545
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,640
constrained as well.
So like they're, they're for

546
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,920
you, You bit up the yeah, the,
the price of bauxite, the price

547
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,680
of alumina is elevated.
But this the, the downstream

548
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,160
sort of smoke, it wasn't flowing
through.

549
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:41,120
You had inventories of aluminium
etcetera.

550
00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:43,600
Yeah, interesting.
Yeah.

551
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,840
Then to the I thought it'd just
be interesting to do like your

552
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,520
later land on the the resources
stocks here today.

553
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,280
Have a look at the the relative
out performers under performers

554
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,640
like we just talked about gold
has had a a stand out year like

555
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,920
Spot gold over the last 12
months.

556
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,720
Where did I calculate it was
like up 31%, which is pretty

557
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:07,520
huge year for gold.
If you just look at the the ISX

558
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,760
gold producers, I've put them
all on this one chart, which

559
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:12,240
looks like spaghetti.
It's disgusting.

560
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:15,040
But there are two big standouts
on that chart.

561
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,520
You can see 2 lines are kind of
elevated well above the rest,

562
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,040
and that's Oribanda and
Catalyst, both sort of north of

563
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,960
200% up here to date.
And I'm on the flip side of

564
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,080
that.
Bellevue's down 23%, Alkane's

565
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:33,640
down 20% and then sort of your
Gold Rd Vault, Kingsgate,

566
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,320
Newmont, they're all those,
those ones all underperformed

567
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,240
the gold price itself.
So for most miners, they've had

568
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:41,560
most gold miners pretty stand
out.

569
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,360
Yeah, massive torque, you know,
or a banner and catalyst as you

570
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,680
can see from from their share
price performances as at the

571
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,000
same time as you know, executing
their, their operationally and

572
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,640
then and then the
underperformers is a big talking

573
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:55,840
point as well.
What do you guys make of that?

574
00:29:58,160 --> 00:29:59,960
Yeah, all kinds.
The one that keeps getting

575
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,120
mentioned as like why wouldn't
you buy this?

576
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,760
It's so cheap.
Wonder how much of it is the

577
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:12,480
just the low all the gold
flavour is WI and it's like

578
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,120
this.
It's like is it because the

579
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,720
alkane's just this hidden away
isolated NSW stock that doesn't

580
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:20,560
get a hypertension?
I don't know.

581
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,320
I'm not not too in the words
about the operation enough.

582
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,160
Yeah, I'm not.
I'm not massively in the weeds,

583
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,520
but it's not a massive operation
like they want to expand.

584
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,680
They need money and.
They got that big, pretty big

585
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,480
CapEx Bill, yeah.
Exactly right.

586
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:37,120
Interesting looking at the JDX
just to get a kind of kind of

587
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:43,880
average of the gold miners up
20% for looking exactly 1 year.

588
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:48,720
So that doesn't outperform gold
price either, does it?

589
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,640
No, yeah, no, no.
And that's like that's, it's a

590
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,760
pretty disappointing year if
you're a gold producer and

591
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,640
you've underperformed the gold
price.

592
00:30:57,760 --> 00:30:59,360
I think like super.
Disappointing.

593
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,240
Yeah, I'm.
Actually interested that look,

594
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,200
Perseus and Wolf and no Ding
Ding and Wolf.

595
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,240
They obviously performed pretty
well.

596
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,560
They did outperform the gold
price, but given the cash flow

597
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,560
generation, I'm surprised they
didn't actually outperform more.

598
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,360
Yeah, this is probably the old,
you know, Africa discount, I

599
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:21,960
guess, but.
Yeah, probably.

600
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:26,120
But there's there's like who?
Yeah, I think that the talk was

601
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:27,880
with the marginal producers as
well, right.

602
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:29,480
Like and that's where you had
big equity.

603
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:33,080
The big change in equity was was
as as he went through the list

604
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,480
of marginal producers, they all
they ripped sort of 1 by 1.

605
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,600
Yeah.
Well and that's will look

606
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,920
Pentora 82%.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

607
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,520
Big year for them too, for sure.
There's and then, and then on

608
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:47,600
the flip side of like the, the
commodities that had a pretty

609
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:52,240
rough 2024, I think there's a
big common theme amongst those

610
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,160
stocks like this.
Yeah, the commodities got

611
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,320
hammered like you know, I'm,
I'm, I'm talking like lithium,

612
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,440
rare earth nickel, those, those
ones have just stayed in the

613
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,680
doldrums.
What I noticed when I just

614
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,600
charted the relative performance
of the, the equities there is

615
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,800
the the incumbent low cost
producers fared OK on a relative

616
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,560
basis.
Everything else just got fucking

617
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,720
smoked.
Like, so here's just here's

618
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,800
lithium, right?
I've, I've like, like I've

619
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,520
charted up, you know, some
developers with the, with, with

620
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:24,960
some producers there and who
fared better than the rest.

621
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,480
I had Jio and Pilgrim.
They're both down roughly 40%.

622
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,200
But that's a lot when you talk
to like the buy side and say

623
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,120
like, like if you can't be going
to make a countercyclical bet on

624
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,440
lithium, like what would you do?
They're like, would you go like

625
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,800
a like a if you say would you go
patriot or would you do?

626
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,240
They're like you don't get cute
with it.

627
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,960
They go IGO bill bro.
Like they got the most the

628
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,000
fucking income, they got the
most upside.

629
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,720
The liquid stocks.
Yeah, they're like, and that's

630
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,280
so, yeah, if anyone's betting on
a turn around, they go.

631
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,000
That's where the money goes
straight away.

632
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:00,520
Look, look at the gold producers
for example, like when when gold

633
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,440
sort of ripped which which
equities led the way, It wasn't

634
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,480
the developers, the producers,
the producers LED.

635
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,600
Yeah, they they lead and then
risk comes into the market and

636
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:11,920
then you go down the chain, the
risk curve as a retail comes

637
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,400
into the market, which happens
sort of later in the cycle

638
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,640
rather than earlier in stores go
established producers who are

639
00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:19,560
lower cost first.
Yeah.

640
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,360
And then like if I if I actually
put SQM on there, you'd say they

641
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,720
they fared far better than than
IGO and Pilbara too.

642
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,800
But then you look at like you
know a global lithium like down

643
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,400
like what is that 86% year to
date, which is pretty, pretty

644
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,120
hard you.
Know it's different when you go

645
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:42,400
down yeah, you can't go more
than 100 no, you well the the up

646
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,480
ones are 200 odd, but like yeah,
like 8086%.

647
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,800
One down the bright side.
One down nearly 60%.

648
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,960
Obviously there was some M&A
thing around that.

649
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,400
That's funny even when you delta
lithium 64%.

650
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,880
When you when you go down 85%,
you can still go down another

651
00:33:56,880 --> 00:34:00,680
100%.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, rare earth.

652
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:02,040
So it's like kind of a similar
thing here.

653
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:03,760
This this surprised me a fair
bit.

654
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,640
Developers smoked like look at
look what happened to, you know,

655
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,960
meteoric Veritas, psionic, for
example.

656
00:34:10,199 --> 00:34:12,880
They're all down between like 62
and 73% year to date.

657
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:17,520
Linus, would you believe up 3%
year to date Despite that market

658
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,159
just being like, you know, in a
horrid state and you know, Linus

659
00:34:21,159 --> 00:34:23,320
themselves like a where's,
where's the free mining?

660
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,880
Company, it's OK.
But but to be I suppose rare

661
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,040
earths, but remember early in
the year though a lot, you know,

662
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,840
43 bucks a kilo for NDPR and
then back in the 50s now.

663
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,760
So it's had a bit of a bit of a
recovery.

664
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,840
On my numbers they're like on a
12 month look back basis.

665
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,840
Rare NDPR is actually down, but
yeah, there was the interim.

666
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,000
It was lower at one point, but
it's still down 11%.

667
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,920
But the MAD Oricon VMM and that
they've.

668
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,239
Sort of kept hammered, hammered,
hammered big time.

669
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,320
Yeah.
And yeah, which is super

670
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:57,800
interesting.
I think part of that might just

671
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,440
be that Sierra Verde effect as
well, which is which is having

672
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,400
troubles and maybe people are
rethinking Brazilian rare

673
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,720
earths.
And then on the nickel front, I

674
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,440
thought you'd be surprised to
see this.

675
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,760
I don't have a chart here, but
like nickel price remains in the

676
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,320
dunny.
Every like ASX nickel developer

677
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,400
or explorer has either renamed
or, you know, sold itself to a

678
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,360
gold company or or, you know,
pivoted.

679
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,360
There's there's there's no more
nickel companies anymore in the

680
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,720
ASX except for like maybe 1
developer and every nickel

681
00:35:26,720 --> 00:35:30,360
operation XX Nova is like, you
know, cattailed or shut down and

682
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,200
care of maintenance and it's not
not coming back.

683
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:37,160
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
But there's an ASX producer up

684
00:35:37,240 --> 00:35:40,520
24% year to date.
Nickel Industries, Yeah, again,

685
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,400
that's a, you know, incumbent
low cost producer, which

686
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,240
Indonesia, Indonesia, yeah,
totally, totally like big

687
00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:50,040
beneficiary of yeah.
Plus a a decent processing

688
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,160
focus, a part portion of the
business too.

689
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,240
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
I think, Can you imagine, I know

690
00:35:56,240 --> 00:36:01,040
we talked about whether Nova, if
Nova was they just sort of paid

691
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,640
it back for the acquisition, but
could you imagine if Nova went

692
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:09,040
through a nickel boom, which I
don't think it ever did Well,

693
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:12,080
since that there hasn't been a
nickel boom.

694
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,960
Well, in 2022, there was this
outrageous price spike around

695
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:20,080
the time of but Russia, Ukraine
and stuff, but but that sold

696
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,840
around it.
Yeah, the money didn't flow

697
00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:23,320
through.
It was No 27.

698
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,120
Contracted.
Yeah, no, 2007 boom, that was,

699
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,320
that was stuff for legends, that
one.

700
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,120
Yeah.
So that could you imagine if

701
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:34,520
that asset went so it's going to
finish and it's like it just

702
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,200
was, yeah, 10 years too early or
too late.

703
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,240
If you split it backwards.
Interesting to think about for

704
00:36:40,240 --> 00:36:42,720
sure.
That's that that makes me think

705
00:36:42,720 --> 00:36:46,240
of like optionality when it
comes to mining assets, the

706
00:36:46,240 --> 00:36:48,920
ability to be around for more
than one cycle.

707
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,120
That's why the majors love it so
much, because if you can get two

708
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,440
cycles and you can get two of
those peaks in or more, if

709
00:36:56,440 --> 00:37:00,920
you're talking about a multi
generational asset, the returns

710
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,840
can be that that awesome.
You can make all your money in

711
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:04,960
one year sometime.
Yeah.

712
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:06,240
Pilgrim Minerals.
Yeah, yeah.

713
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,000
Yeah.
Just look at what they went.

714
00:37:08,240 --> 00:37:10,320
Through coal companies.
In 22 coal companies, yeah.

715
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:11,760
Yeah.
No, look at yeah, yeah.

716
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,840
And Carl, like they're just
having all that cash on.

717
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,280
And even though they're not as
they're more thermal, but

718
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,200
they're added spark as well big
time.

719
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,120
Yeah, Nickel, like Narilsk, like
the asset that they have in

720
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,760
Russia that's been around for
generate generations.

721
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,080
Yeah.
And they were around 2007 when

722
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,720
prices went through the roof,
Although it doesn't help when

723
00:37:31,720 --> 00:37:34,240
you go and blow all that money
on stupid M&A when prices are

724
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:37,200
sky high as well.
But yeah, at least you have the

725
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:38,200
chance to go it.
Sure, Yeah.

726
00:37:39,240 --> 00:37:42,760
What about our ramp up cohort?
Trev, this is a guy.

727
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,960
This is a big take away for for
2024, Ellie.

728
00:37:47,240 --> 00:37:50,760
Just take a a look at the chart
of relative share price

729
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:54,440
performance year to date for the
cohort of ASX listed.

730
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:59,320
You know, ramp up companies.
It's like it's basically

731
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,800
everything's running downhill.
It's how I describe it with one

732
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,600
exception.
Line down down like more than

733
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,800
60%.
It's $0.55 today.

734
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,120
Sheffield down 72%, still a bit
to work through a Thunderbird.

735
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:14,360
Bellevue down 24% in a year
where gold's gold 30% plus like

736
00:38:14,720 --> 00:38:17,080
OST down 35.
Paladin down 20%.

737
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:19,800
You know, had Galen
unfortunately going to VA

738
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,360
towards the start of the year
and it stayed there.

739
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,760
Strand lines still in in VA.
Owen cooking coal, they recapped

740
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,200
to avoid VA, but they're down
95%.

741
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,440
True North Popper went into VA
and then recapped Adriatic, the

742
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,040
only one that's up.
Year to date they're up 25%, but

743
00:38:35,240 --> 00:38:37,400
hasn't that been?
After a dive, but wasn't it?

744
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,440
Mate, they've they've had a
roller coaster.

745
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:43,320
It's like up, down, up more down
more like it's you know, but

746
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,320
they've finished the year up and
I don't think they're out of the

747
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:47,360
woods yet either.
I mean.

748
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,280
And just to clarify, for the
money miners VAS voluntary

749
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,040
administration as well, yeah.
No good.

750
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,960
No, no good.
I think the messy.

751
00:38:55,960 --> 00:39:00,600
They call a certain.
Bloke and that's if he says no,

752
00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:06,080
like if you're if you're a if
your strategy as an investor is,

753
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:10,440
is playing the Lassonde rewrite
for hip hop never goes like the

754
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,640
spreadsheet like, you know,
especially, especially in the

755
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:19,080
last few years it's been yeah, a
really challenging strategy to

756
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,600
back to back the developers
going into production.

757
00:39:21,600 --> 00:39:24,640
If anything, the mail has been a
truth detector for over over

758
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:28,760
promoted over excited, you know,
excited kind of scenarios which

759
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,080
didn't eventuate.
And I just think, yeah, I think,

760
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,480
I think you got to be prepared
for the the impact that a

761
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:36,360
deviation from the spreadsheet
can have to the capital

762
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,920
structure of the business and
what your returns could be from

763
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:42,160
on an equity basis.
Yeah, yeah, I think, but I think

764
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,080
that list there, I think there's
a mix of.

765
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,080
Commodities too.
My the like line town commodity

766
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,720
because I haven't actually
started stopping yet and they

767
00:39:50,720 --> 00:39:52,840
like to be honest, they've
probably actually performed all

768
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:54,760
right.
Sure, Marling, But what was the

769
00:39:54,760 --> 00:39:57,360
market's expectation of their
cost versus what reality is

770
00:39:57,360 --> 00:39:58,520
right because they never put
out?

771
00:39:58,560 --> 00:39:59,640
Updates they don't even know
yet.

772
00:39:59,880 --> 00:40:00,760
They should.
That's.

773
00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:03,240
That's not fair.
I don't think you know you've

774
00:40:03,240 --> 00:40:06,080
been producing for like to not
say you don't know what.

775
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:08,600
You haven't, you haven't hit
ramp like Bellevue's hit full

776
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,600
ramp up.
They they can disclose what

777
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,440
their costs are, if you know
what I mean.

778
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:16,880
Like, yeah, I think, I think, I
think what I'm saying, all of

779
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,240
these companies, the market
expected something and reality

780
00:40:19,240 --> 00:40:22,280
was very different to
expectations operation like the

781
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,520
meal looks awesome, they've
delivered long town happy days.

782
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,520
But reality of what the market
expected costs should be there

783
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,640
versus what they are is very,
very different.

784
00:40:29,720 --> 00:40:31,400
Yeah.
I think the the, the broader

785
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,160
point as well is that you are,
you know, subject to so many

786
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,400
risks when you're ramping up.
You're a company that's not

787
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:40,520
making money like that's, that's
what it is at the end of the

788
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,400
day.
And it could be commodity price.

789
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,120
It could be the, you know,
you're not hitting name plate.

790
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,760
It could be a a whole host of
things that you were just not

791
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,160
able to defend properly against.
Yeah, I think, but I think

792
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,640
lithium price and uranium price
is way more of a factor than

793
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,120
ramp up for the ones that have
gone down.

794
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:00,280
Well, adds another.
Layer the stock price way more

795
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,760
than the ramp up.
And the other thing as well is.

796
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:04,280
A lot.
Of these are single.

797
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,560
Uraniums up too like.
Not the spot price.

798
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,000
Yeah, it's neutral.
It's like it was, it was 80 and

799
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,040
out 77.
Like if you look at my numbers

800
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,080
like that's not it doesn't
explain the underperformance of

801
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:20,240
the uranium restarts.
Money coming out of money coming

802
00:41:20,240 --> 00:41:24,240
out of the market, but so.
Is that a prompts up chemicals

803
00:41:24,240 --> 00:41:26,520
up extens up you today?
Yeah, I know.

804
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:30,960
But like boss have met theirs,
but Paladin's gone.

805
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,840
They haven't met theirs, but
they're a different price.

806
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:36,840
It's more.
I just think it's more the ramp

807
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,800
UPS aren't equal, that's for
sure because they're different

808
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,960
times of the ramp UPS.
Time will tell mate, time.

809
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,720
Time will tell.
All righty fellas too.

810
00:41:46,720 --> 00:41:49,040
They're both the two top shorted
companies on ASX.

811
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:53,120
Oh yeah, yeah, definitely yeah.
Which that's why ASX produces.

812
00:41:53,720 --> 00:41:55,920
Yeah.
Yeah, real sentiment shift in in

813
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,360
Australia over the past year on
on those U.

814
00:41:59,280 --> 00:41:59,960
Names.
Oh, definitely.

815
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:05,400
Drown that the year I'd like to
do our in house performance

816
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:11,840
reviews on each other, but but
live on camera so and we'll

817
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,960
participate.
We'll participate, so it will

818
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,760
we'll go through what we've each
excelled in and improved on the

819
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,720
most throughout the year.
And we can also highlight some

820
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:27,160
areas that need attention as
well.

821
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:29,400
Like I said, we all comment on
each other.

822
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:30,600
So I.
Haven't read those by the way,

823
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:31,680
no.
No, that's all right.

824
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:32,960
Yeah, I'll scroll it up so I
can't.

825
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,320
Say so we'll start off with you,
Maddie.

826
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:40,720
So I mean, obviously the uranium
and the the metallurgical

827
00:42:40,720 --> 00:42:42,920
knowledge has obviously gone
through the roof, which has been

828
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,880
fantastic.
We've we've seen glimpses of

829
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,440
corporate finance and desk
Maddie as well, which I think

830
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,720
it's been a very exciting
development.

831
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,040
Payback Analysis.
Payback Analysis.

832
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:57,280
Of funds ever since I met Tim
Bunny at a bloody diggers and he

833
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:01,480
offered a desk job, I'll just my
desk Ness has just gone through

834
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:05,080
the.
Desk menace, but then I think

835
00:43:05,240 --> 00:43:08,560
God needs attention is certainly
your unhealthy reliance and chat

836
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,800
GVT.
But now I'm on Gemini now.

837
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,520
You're on Gemini now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

838
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:18,240
What have you guys got to add?
Maybe we shouldn't do each

839
00:43:18,240 --> 00:43:19,440
other.
Might end up in a puncher.

840
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,080
Back period spreadsheets need
improvement, but yeah, I've got.

841
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:28,680
Start one good start I've.
Got you done One like Rio,

842
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,960
you've got to start somewhere.
I'm the first mover on that.

843
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:36,920
First mover, Yeah, very good.
All right, we'll move on to

844
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,480
Trav.
So very big A+ plus on the

845
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,640
renovation skills.
This what everybody sees behind

846
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:47,240
you in front of the camera.
Here is all courtesy of Trevor

847
00:43:47,240 --> 00:43:48,960
Chippy Ricardinho.
So the rest.

848
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:49,800
Of us?
None of it.

849
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:52,680
So no, absolutely awesome work
there.

850
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:54,760
The podcasting doesn't work out.
Carpentry.

851
00:43:55,600 --> 00:44:00,080
Carpentry of the future.
And the passion for governance

852
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,040
and shareholder activism issues
that have been throughout the

853
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:05,760
year has been fantastic.
Although I'm not sure if it's a

854
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:11,280
blessing and a curse.
And I might have to pass you on

855
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:15,640
to my friends at Bad Boys just
to help help get you calm

856
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,280
sometimes when you get a bit
excited.

857
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,920
So I will just flash up this
this video you.

858
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:26,920
Are angry.
It's OK, I'm not angry.

859
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:31,600
Except when you keep repeating
you're angry, and that's just

860
00:44:31,600 --> 00:44:36,120
fucking annoying.
Fucking mad at a BBQ.

861
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,560
Just just just just bugging the
fuck out of me.

862
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:45,000
I want you to say I'm angry.
It's OK, I'll process my anger.

863
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:49,360
I love myself, Moosa.
I don't know what the fuck

864
00:44:49,480 --> 00:44:51,120
you're talking about.
Yes, you do.

865
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:52,760
Know what the fuck I'm talking
about?

866
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:54,840
I.
Love it.

867
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:56,560
Nothing wrong with the bit of
moosa.

868
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:00,560
That stood the test of time,
that ever.

869
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,680
Oh.
It's such a moosa.

870
00:45:04,040 --> 00:45:05,280
Don't forget your pressure
points.

871
00:45:05,720 --> 00:45:08,600
Yeah, Thanks, Ali.
So no good work, Trev.

872
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:10,880
Well done.
Positive like you did do some

873
00:45:10,880 --> 00:45:14,160
positive segments this year.
These are looking up.

874
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:16,560
Hey, you need the balance.
And we and I are complete.

875
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:20,280
Or we.
Fighting for the fighting for

876
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:22,840
the guys on the straight Well
done for mum and dad

877
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,640
shareholders.
So JD and then like this has

878
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,560
actually worked out perfectly
this episode, but your your

879
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,160
Spanish pronunciation.
Oh sure, lingo paying off.

880
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:34,800
Yeah, it's been fantastic.
There's been so many YouTube

881
00:45:34,800 --> 00:45:38,440
comments about your about your
Spanish pronunciation.

882
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:39,920
So wait.
Till we get onto a site visit.

883
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,040
It'll come in Oh.
God, it'll be amazing.

884
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:46,360
So even that the, the loan
office plant is still live

885
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,880
thanks to JD as well.
So you, you guys will often

886
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:52,320
notice when JD is in Melbourne
because the plant looks pretty

887
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,160
dead, and then when he's back,
it looks a bit more alive.

888
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:57,760
And you, you've been really
getting around the ads this year

889
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:58,920
too.
It's been awesome.

890
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:03,560
It it came from an extremely low
base with Maddie doing 100% of

891
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,400
the ads and now now.
Wanting to do an ad ever in your

892
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,480
life and and?
Now I'll probably do about 5% of

893
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,120
the work there, so.
That was definitely an area that

894
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,680
needed attention, which you
you've started to address.

895
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:17,240
I love the, I love the sponsors.
But I like JD, he gets his hands

896
00:46:17,240 --> 00:46:20,040
involved.
He's like he asserts he he

897
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:23,240
doesn't assertion out which
validates what he says.

898
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:29,760
Like there's my ad fucking
feedback, just I just know

899
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,280
you're serious and I'll just
take it in.

900
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,040
I love it.
Good work, JD.

901
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,880
Good.
Do we have to drum up one for

902
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:38,480
Allie now?
Oh no.

903
00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:40,840
On the fly.
Jesus.

904
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:45,920
Christ, yeah, you've got full
time money of mine.

905
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:47,960
You've got that's better.
You've got you've got an engaged

906
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:49,840
and you bought a house.
So I don't know, just, you know,

907
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,200
there's, there's not much more
to say.

908
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:55,640
She organises my life, she said.
Like literally the WhatsApp chat

909
00:46:55,640 --> 00:47:00,160
is these dot points, business
ones, but 95% of them relate to

910
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:02,360
me.
And it's so good because I'm

911
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,720
like, oh sweet, I will do all
those things.

912
00:47:04,720 --> 00:47:07,280
Ali, thank you very much.
Frankly, I'd hate to see where

913
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:09,520
the business would be without
Ali would be bargained.

914
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,200
Please continue telling me what
to do, Roof.

915
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:15,160
Roof improvement.
All commodities other than gold.

916
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,480
I've been.
Dabbling a bit here and there.

917
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:20,080
I've been dabbling a bit here
and there.

918
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:21,640
Actually, I have to say one
thing.

919
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:25,760
I feel like it's been I've been
chipping away is definitely

920
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:30,000
trying to articulate myself
better in front of camera, like

921
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:32,280
because it is a bit of a
confidence thing and trying to

922
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:36,040
like sound real smart and stuff.
But this hilarious YouTube

923
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,520
comment still laugh at where I
think I was doing a segment.

924
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,720
You, you guys asked me like a
great question, but like I

925
00:47:41,720 --> 00:47:44,520
needed to really think about it.
And the comment was like, Ali is

926
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:49,480
buffering at 15 and 4 seconds.
Just the brain was working

927
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:51,960
overtime.
So no, we're getting there.

928
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:56,920
So that's that's been good fun
and lucky last to ran out

929
00:47:56,920 --> 00:48:00,760
today's episode, our last Daily
Show for 2024.

930
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,520
What have been each of your and
we'll go around the table each

931
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:08,480
of your highlights for the 2024
money of mine this year and what

932
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,800
are you looking forward to or
your New Year's resolution for

933
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,240
for next year?
Who wants to kick?

934
00:48:15,240 --> 00:48:19,680
Off I thought the the week we
had in Sydney back in May was

935
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:21,560
buddy fantastic.
That was a Ripper.

936
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:23,960
I mean the fact that we got to
speak with, I don't know, like

937
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:28,320
10 odd fundies interview them in
a week every evening or catch up

938
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,760
with wicked people in the
industry that were open to

939
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,680
chatting with us.
It was a super fun and you know,

940
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,560
jam packed educationally and fun
wise week.

941
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:40,640
I reckon that was a good one.
Diggers and dealers, that was.

942
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,160
The.
Best bloody week of my life.

943
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:46,320
I'll probably be better behaved
next year but that was like.

944
00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:49,640
But just to be in that is just
my favourite scenery in the

945
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,760
world with fundies and miners
all in one place.

946
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:55,800
That was the best way of my life
and my biggest achievement.

947
00:48:55,960 --> 00:49:00,480
I'm now day three of no vape.
Good on you and no nicotine and

948
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,880
I got off the no well.
I tried patches but I couldn't

949
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:07,280
get off the patches 'cause I'll
still I'm like I'll have to get

950
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:10,000
rid of nicotine at some point.
Oh fantastic, I.

951
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,120
Got got on the tablets or the?
Health kick.

952
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,560
Yeah, I think.
They look like chewies or the.

953
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,920
No, they taste like vitamin C.
Quit.

954
00:49:16,920 --> 00:49:17,920
Stop now.
If.

955
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:21,000
You want to get off the vibe?
Yeah, it looked like I had

956
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,160
bloody.
I don't know everyone.

957
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:24,360
I was surprised.
YouTube comments for the Friday

958
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:25,480
one.
They'll be like wonder what's in

959
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,160
what tablets, if he's on the
blue pills or something, but I

960
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:33,680
can't get it up.
But no, just.

961
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:35,720
Just with the vibes, just.
To make it about myself.

962
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:40,440
Ellie, you got a highlight.
I, I had the Sydney 24 trip in

963
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,640
in May as a highlight.
I really enjoyed that.

964
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,400
It was just great to, I think
that a more general highlight, I

965
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:50,920
think has been and it is a
privilege to the access to

966
00:49:51,240 --> 00:49:55,880
really interesting, highly
intelligent people with, with

967
00:49:55,880 --> 00:50:00,480
amazing insights that we we we
get to have as as part of being

968
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:03,040
in this business.
I think especially for a young

969
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:07,040
person, it's been so humbling
and such an awesome experience

970
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:11,200
and just have learnt so much by
getting to, you know, speak and

971
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,120
interact with these people.
So that that's been a huge haul

972
00:50:14,120 --> 00:50:16,320
up for me.
This is a general one for for

973
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:17,480
the year.
Absolutely I.

974
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,360
Can't, I can't top that.
I I don't know that internally.

975
00:50:20,680 --> 00:50:21,640
What are you?
What are you guys looking

976
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:24,480
forward to next year?
Garba?

977
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,480
For me, I think I know what.
You guys are looking forward to?

978
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,760
It so pumped for.
Yeah, visiting, visiting, like

979
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,400
visiting more mines, learning
more about mining.

980
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:37,080
I want to, I want to get very
good at understanding geology,

981
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:41,040
which is a bit of a, yeah, bit
of a, an aspirational goal.

982
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,800
But like I want to be able to
assess an ore body on my own

983
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:45,880
merit, not rely on a geologist
interpretation.

984
00:50:47,480 --> 00:50:50,040
I want to know more geologists
so they can do it for me.

985
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:54,320
If you're a gun GI, come be my
best friend.

986
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,480
It's work smarter, not harder.
Exactly love.

987
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,320
It oh, what's bloody would you
love to do?

988
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,800
What's your What's your highest
conviction bet for 2024?

989
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:07,440
Oh, now we're getting into the
highest.

990
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:09,920
Conviction 25.
Sorry. 25.

991
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,640
What are you if you're what if
you're going to buy something

992
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,440
today, it's not stock.
It's.

993
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,760
Like a thematic.
Commodity thematic What it or

994
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:20,960
what it What you think's going
to bloody?

995
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:25,200
What are we putting our things
on the block on?

996
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:36,120
I reckon you could be perennial,
I reckon you could be

997
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:40,440
potentially pretty clever with
like some African gold

998
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:41,920
developers.
Oh.

999
00:51:42,720 --> 00:51:46,120
Obviously there's varying risks
with different countries and

1000
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:51,040
different ones, but I reckon
that could be an interesting

1001
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:53,760
area to look at.
It was a more broad thematic

1002
00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,200
which we've sort of seen play
out a little bit this year.

1003
00:51:56,720 --> 00:51:59,640
Yeah, that'd be mine.
I'm going to go higher cost

1004
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:03,400
uranium producers.
I'm getting like the.

1005
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:08,360
Equities to perform well I'm.
Thinking look what happened with

1006
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,520
gold.
If they're if the underlying

1007
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:15,080
uranium thing happens and there
is a big spark, which gold is

1008
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:18,200
performing the best from that
graph before all the high

1009
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,560
costers.
Especially these tech companies

1010
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,720
that with the data centres and S
and Rs and.

1011
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,360
It's a double whammy.
It's all uranium has to go up,

1012
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,680
but it's going to benefit the
most the high cost ones.

1013
00:52:30,240 --> 00:52:34,400
That's me bet.
Like how we're all playing in

1014
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:36,880
our stables.
Yeah, yeah, gold.

1015
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,480
I'll take the other side.
I'm with the shortest.

1016
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,200
Yeah, Can we put a?
Cut as your highest conviction

1017
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:50,320
or just on that particular.
And people who go short, they,

1018
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:53,960
they do so much research.
They're like, yeah, like

1019
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:56,120
whenever we whenever you see
double digit short interest in

1020
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:58,120
and then be wrong in the last
like 18 months.

1021
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,680
But do you think well?
They're right because it's good.

1022
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,040
It's going down.
I have to have a bit of a.

1023
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,760
Look, yeah, because your because
your downsides unlimited.

1024
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:09,960
If you go short, you do so much
more research than people who go

1025
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,800
long in general.
But I guess with that research,

1026
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,640
do you think you're researching
certain things to satisfy your

1027
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:21,320
own opinion as opposed to?
Order or you have to short

1028
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:24,640
something to offset the.
Offset along maybe?

1029
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,840
By both of those are true.
I mean, there is a reason why

1030
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:31,560
most short funds have shut down
over the past sort of decade or

1031
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:34,120
so as markets are just
constantly going against you.

1032
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:39,120
Yeah, commodities have their own
kind of niche hot conviction PET

1033
00:53:39,840 --> 00:53:41,520
pretty hard.
But I'd I'd rest pretty easy

1034
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,960
with some of the METCO kind of
names.

1035
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:48,720
I don't know if that's a
specifically 2025 thing, but I

1036
00:53:48,720 --> 00:53:53,640
think you know, you kind of hold
them and in time you'll you'll

1037
00:53:53,640 --> 00:54:00,160
do well on some of those names.
Highest conviction diamond price

1038
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:03,240
is lower in 12 months time.
Lab diamonds continue to.

1039
00:54:09,760 --> 00:54:11,600
Yeah, Yeah.
Do you think the margin, the

1040
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:15,800
margin sort of closes between
the two synthetic prices are way

1041
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:20,360
below real diamonds Ready I.
Don't know what was.

1042
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:24,400
So Zaminski's diamond index went
down 16% year on year.

1043
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:26,120
So that's for the rough diamond
index.

1044
00:54:26,120 --> 00:54:27,920
So I just think that trend
probably continues.

1045
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:31,000
Yeah, that's.
An interesting one, yeah.

1046
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,400
See what price Anglo can fetch
for De Beers.

1047
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:36,600
Oh, we'll do a scorecard of
ourselves.

1048
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:41,000
Yeah, this time next year.
It can be like a pod shop if you

1049
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:41,880
don't.
What is the other one?

1050
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,160
What is the other question?
We should do the four questions

1051
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,600
on ourselves.
My the most the most non

1052
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,880
consensus.
What's the bet dinner?

1053
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:51,720
I've already got a dinner
against us with.

1054
00:54:51,720 --> 00:54:57,280
I better not say that, but
there's a dinner with to my

1055
00:54:57,280 --> 00:54:59,880
stock and to your stock.
What's your most non consensus

1056
00:54:59,960 --> 00:55:01,000
pick?
Good at the moment.

1057
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:06,720
Non consensus pick.
Is it thematic?

1058
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:09,680
It's thematic commodity.
Maybe anything, anything that

1059
00:55:09,680 --> 00:55:11,840
people aren't talking about, it
can.

1060
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:15,040
It can be really sort of rogue.
It doesn't kind of have to fall

1061
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:19,920
within normal plan bounds.
I'll set it in the later week

1062
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:26,280
episode Bellevue develop tie up.
Bold.

1063
00:55:26,800 --> 00:55:28,760
Yeah, people aren't.
People aren't talking about that

1064
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:29,360
one.
Yeah.

1065
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:37,000
I'm buffering so it will pass.
I'll need a mine.

1066
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,760
I don't know if this is
consensus or not, but I think

1067
00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:46,840
the Chinese mining equities will
outperform the Australian

1068
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:52,160
producers of equivalent stature.
So like your your Zegeans, your

1069
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,320
sign of mines.
Like those sorts of companies

1070
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,280
would do better than the
equivalent ASX listed car.

1071
00:55:59,160 --> 00:56:01,760
From the stimulus or not just
that.

1072
00:56:02,720 --> 00:56:05,880
Part of that part of the regime,
they're encouraging buybacks and

1073
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:09,400
part of their just like ability
to deliver projects like on

1074
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:12,760
budget far lower in the cost
curve and you know, do business

1075
00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:16,120
in a way that we don't.
Non consensus, pretty, pretty

1076
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:19,240
beaten up, eaten into the cost
curve which we've touched on a

1077
00:56:19,240 --> 00:56:20,760
couple times throughout the
year.

1078
00:56:20,760 --> 00:56:27,640
I think PGM's to narrow it down,
I'll say plats or could go more

1079
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:33,040
niche and say rhodium.
We'll have a Goodyear, something

1080
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,680
nobody really cares about.
She's try to ferg.

1081
00:56:36,520 --> 00:56:38,000
He did.
He did flag that one.

1082
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,600
Yeah.
There's a few companies in in

1083
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,600
South Africa to kind of.
Look at.

1084
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:45,400
I reckon they'll be.
There, yourself, next to you,

1085
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:46,680
Jada.
Yeah, you're gonna have a look

1086
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:50,360
yourself. 100% Yep.
I reckon there'll be a bunch

1087
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,560
more of these bullshit
exploration company M and I

1088
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:59,320
deals just just because of the
absolute austerity as far as

1089
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:02,560
they've they've had to kind of
endure as far as being able to

1090
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,000
raise the equity to sustain
themselves and their projects

1091
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:10,680
and things like that.
I think a lot more desperado

1092
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:16,560
random just just for the sake of
maintaining their own existence.

1093
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:21,760
Deals I think will happen if if
the equity markets continue to

1094
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:25,880
start as there are for for those
real micro nano cap type

1095
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:33,360
companies.
Sort of consensus the will go

1096
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:36,160
West Perth.
But very high conviction West.

1097
00:57:36,160 --> 00:57:37,880
Perth.
Right.

1098
00:57:37,880 --> 00:57:39,560
What was the other one?
Best was the best.

1099
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:43,680
Performing commodities.
Oh, best performing commodity?

1100
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:45,640
Oh yeah.
You just got to pick something

1101
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,160
random and niche if you want to
be a.

1102
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,560
Winner Oh, the hardest thing is
picking by the end of the year.

1103
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:53,360
Yeah.
Yes, it's a volatile 1.

1104
00:57:55,200 --> 00:57:57,800
I've just got to go through my
COMSEC watch list to see which

1105
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:06,240
is which, the commodity ones.
It'll be a small market.

1106
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:08,440
Or should we go like just keep
it?

1107
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,040
Keep it mainstream, sort of
mainstream.

1108
00:58:11,040 --> 00:58:12,880
OK, let's do it.
That'll be easier.

1109
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:22,240
Oh, it's hard to get the bloody.
I'm going to go copper.

1110
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:26,040
Good or bad?
Best performing.

1111
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:27,440
Best performing.
The worst performing?

1112
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:32,040
Yeah, oh, worst performing gold.
Don't say that.

1113
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:44,280
I'll go tin best and worst
cardball.

1114
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:50,320
I think tin would do well.
That's one add of the of the

1115
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:52,880
sort of mainstream ones.
I think there's potential for

1116
00:58:52,880 --> 00:58:58,920
that one to to go hard gold,
underperform gold.

1117
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,480
Just thinking that I know last.
Year.

1118
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:02,080
Yeah.
I'm just thinking of the what's

1119
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:05,040
done well this year as a sort of
good standpoint and most things

1120
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:07,360
are kind of in the cost curve
are not doing too well except

1121
00:59:07,360 --> 00:59:09,840
gold.
So yeah, Ally.

1122
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:14,600
That was a good teamwork, the
answer there, JD, keeping

1123
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:18,880
everyone happy, yeah.
If we go on mainstream, there's,

1124
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:21,880
you know, 10:00-ish sort of
commands to kind of pick from a

1125
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:25,920
list, yeah.
I reckon with what's happening

1126
00:59:25,920 --> 00:59:30,320
with bauxite and alumina,
whether that'll that might flow

1127
00:59:30,320 --> 00:59:34,800
through to quite positively into
aluminium for next year as a as

1128
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:47,200
a best and worst maybe I know.
Oh, the Pilbra killer.

1129
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:49,920
Pilbra Killer.
But but the interesting one

1130
00:59:49,920 --> 00:59:54,320
about best performing is like
lithium in terms of it only has

1131
00:59:54,320 --> 01:00:01,640
to go to like 1000 to be up 25%
like which is not much.

1132
01:00:01,640 --> 01:00:03,280
Which doesn't feel like a lot,
right?

1133
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:07,480
Oh no, but for gold to go up,
that has to be 5000 Aussie an

1134
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:10,960
ounce to go up 25, which feels
yeah, 25%.

1135
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:16,320
So it's it's a lithium's the
lithium's the wild card as

1136
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:19,320
always.
It could just fucking it can go

1137
01:00:19,320 --> 01:00:21,760
up 25% in a frigging couple of
weeks.

1138
01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:25,720
Volatile Rhino.
Fuck.

1139
01:00:26,960 --> 01:00:31,160
And Bitcoin.
What's 1200 is.

1140
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:35,040
It cracked 100 grand yet?
Yeah, yeah. 106 it did. 106.

1141
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,360
All the crypto Bros are just.
Guide Doggy.

1142
01:00:37,360 --> 01:00:41,200
Laughing it twins.
Oh.

1143
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:44,560
Yeah, we mask in the big house
keeps going.

1144
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:51,080
Oh, right now there we go.
That's a wrap 2024, yeah.

1145
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:53,280
Tomorrow's and the next day's
and the next day's episode,

1146
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:56,400
yeah.
A Daily Show wrap for 2024.

1147
01:00:57,280 --> 01:01:01,200
Our last physical effort.
Yep, we've got some crackers

1148
01:01:01,200 --> 01:01:04,480
coming up tomorrow, the day
after and the day after that.

1149
01:01:04,720 --> 01:01:07,160
Yeah, before you keep going
here, now I will get such

1150
01:01:07,280 --> 01:01:08,640
advice.
So we need to stop because.

1151
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:11,000
I'm.
Just going to keep drinking, all

1152
01:01:11,000 --> 01:01:12,840
righty.
All right, thanks to the

1153
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:16,280
partners, as we said, the ones
throughout the year, but the

1154
01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:21,280
ones that pay for today.
Mineral mining services,

1155
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:26,760
grounded Sambic grounded
support, don't forget DSI.

1156
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:31,880
Everyone don't forget shout out,
DSI still still exist in our

1157
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:35,640
heart.
CRE insurance K drill dash sat

1158
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,440
salt Bush contracting Good what?
Solution.

1159
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:44,000
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

1160
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,040
general nature only and does not
take into account the

1161
01:01:46,040 --> 01:01:49,680
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1162
01:01:49,680 --> 01:01:51,720
person.
Before making any investment

1163
01:01:51,720 --> 01:01:54,760
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1164
01:01:54,760 --> 01:01:57,920
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1165
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:00,120
financial situation and needs.