Pilbara & Perseus make their move

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Righto buddy, borders, we got
some action in the lithium, MMM

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and a lithium is back.
We're heading a bloody Brazil

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and Brazil is not out of the
question for an Axis mining

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technology piece of equipment to
head to.

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Just 'cause they're Australia,
mate, they were mate.

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They Brazil, North America, they
will go anywhere to make sure

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you know exactly where those
drill aisles are going on AGC.

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They're the Mr 305 of the
drilling world that is Mr

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Worldwide.
Trusted international drill

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advisor Prestige.
Well, what?

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What?
What?

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Oh, I love it, JD.
How are you, Cobba?

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Bit of action today mate.
I'm excited.

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No, no sort of scratching around
post quarterly's of things to

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things to read about, talk about
or whatever.

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We got plenty going on.
Ali, you've gone deep as well.

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Oh, jeez.
Yeah.

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Not now we've we're going to
West Africa with.

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Everything starts with P.
Everything's paid today,

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Pilbara, Perseus, Predictive,
it's all happening except Vlad.

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They get to miss out.
But no, I'll, I'll be touching

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on the Perseus strategic
investment in predictive as well

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later on.
Oh.

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Good, good to have you back on
the desk.

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Jason back on the desk talking.
To the desk a bit.

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I've got a bit of shit going on
in buying closed doors on the

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desk anyway.
We'll get You are the desk man.

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You are the.
Desk.

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I am the desk learn about our
goes right right.

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Let's rip it Pilbra Pilbra
minerals.

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They've done a doing a deal.
Latin resources are J, so you're

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a Ding Ding.
Ding Ding on Pilbra.

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Pilbra.
Yep, long or short.

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Lol oh that's not good.
No, I'm not sure.

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Unlucky.
Unlucky today though.

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Yeah, right.
Let's little bloody Jada you've

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you've done the leg work here,
mate.

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Rip through the deal.
What's going on?

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Who's who?
Give it to me, baby.

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Alright, bit a bit of a lay of
the land for people that haven't

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been in as much of the weeds as
we have.

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So obviously Pilgrim Minerals
buying Latin Resources all

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script deal 0.07 Pilbara shares
for each Latin resource share.

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Now there you know, it wasn't
too far off the speculation we

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had just last week guys in, in
that there was an all script

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deal being readied by Pilbara.
But you know, given the, the

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relative share price
outperformance from Pilbara,

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that's not a a massive surprise
on on anyone sort of part.

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The deal values Latin Resources
at $0.20 per share or $560

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million market cap, $540 million
enterprise value using a $2.85

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Pilbara share price.
So things have come off a little

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bit since then.
The Pilbara share price is off

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5% today.
So you know that that value has

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come down a little bit.
You can reword that in, in

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another sense and call it 6.4%
of the combined entity is going

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to be given to Latin resource
shareholders in in other sort of

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ways of describing the deal.
They've put it forward as a 57%

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premium to the 10 day V WAP or a
32% premium to the 30 day V WAP.

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So pretty straightforward scheme
that we're talking about here

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needs standard approvals as you
see on, on the ASX for two ASX

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companies.
Not as complex as we saw for the

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likes of Azure with that kind of
dual track structure that was

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being operated to kind of fend
off the the likes of Gina or

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Chris or whoever might interlope
in the deal.

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And the last bit just on
rounding out what the deal is

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all about is the major
shareholder and board have given

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their approval to the deal.
That sort of speaks to 13% of

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the shares on issue at Latin,
and you've got other instos

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there, including Regal, Waratah
and a couple of institutions out

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of Brazil.
Yeah, it's isn't funny how

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simple of the deals are when
there's not as much competition

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and the market's down.
Very astute, Manny.

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Doesn't have to be as funky.
JD mate, this is the definition

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of counter cyclical and this why
This is why it's so interesting.

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Give us the mate, you're the
lithium market expert.

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I'm not so sure about that mate,
but we're chatting just, we were

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chatting just yesterday and just
sort of trading messages about

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the, the state of the lithium
market.

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And obviously it's got everyone
in the specific sector up in

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arms.
And then, you know, more broadly

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in the, in the resource sector
that we are, everyone's got, you

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know, eyes fixed on it and
seeing where it's where it's

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going to pull out a couple
prices because it's still a very

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opaque market.
And again, these can be just

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prices pulled off one or two
contracts that have traded or

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one contract and a couple people
confirming.

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But Platts have said 6% spod is
changing hands at US770A tonne

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fast.
Markets have said 800 U.S.

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dollars a tonne, that's for,
that's for 6%.

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Remember most of the people we
talk about aren't even churning

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out 6% product.
I've also seen hydroxide priced

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at under 11,000 USA tonne and
carbonate at a bit over US

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11,000 a tonne.
So the same kind of disclaimers

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go, it's an opaque market, not
much as trading hands.

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What we can sort of say is that
we've heard a lot of people

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talking about inventory buildups
that goes right the way through

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the supply chain.
And of course, on the back of

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inventory buildups, you see the
prices get whacked.

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We've seen the same thing happen
with copper in the in the past

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few months.
Supplies have increased right up

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as the demand from China has
pulled off a bit and prices just

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get whacked on the back of it.
Yeah, right.

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JD, tell us a bit about Latin.
We haven't spoken about them for

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a while.
We are obviously did when it was

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frigging lithium mania last
year.

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But we better revisit it, mate.
Lots happened since then.

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They've expanded a lot from
where they put it.

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Initially that put a study out
sort of into last year,

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something like.
That as well.

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PA, preliminary economic
assessment.

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That's right.
September, September of 2023.

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I think we actually spoke about
it at the time.

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So who?
Else spoke about it.

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JD.
This is what we do, isn't it

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copper?
The Mining News Centre, that's

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right.
So to, to give people a bit of

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scope, we're talking about the,
the Salinas project in Minacias

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in Brazil.
So as Pilbara very keen to

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stress that's a, that's a mining
region and it, it should be

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known to a few people out there
given there's ASICS companies

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with interests out there, not to
mention all the, the majors got

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valet and what not operating out
there.

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The project itself, 78,000,000
tonnes at 1.24%, most of that 70

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million tonnes of that is at
Colina and the remainder sits

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sort of in another deposit 12
kilometres away.

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And of that 70 million tonnes,
most of it sits in measured and

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indicated.
Very, very high percent measured

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and indicated which is.
Yeah, yeah.

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So we saw a, we saw a resource
upgrade to your point there,

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Maddie, in May of this year.
And the, the, the real change

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there was the increase in
confidence.

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So you, you know, you do more
drilling, tighter spacing and

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all that sort of stuff.
And that lifted the confidence

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that lifted the amount of tonnes
that were in the measured and

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indicated categories up quite
substantially.

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They did use AUS 1200 dollar
pitch shell to, to, you know,

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sort of give them a bit of a
guide and put it in a model.

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It's an open pit project that
we're, we're talking about.

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So kind of keep that one in mind
as we run through the numbers,

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as you kind of get into as well,
Maddie, on the actual mechanics

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of the, you know, production and
the project that they've put

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forward.
So the I guess the financial

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metrics to give you I'll give
you a breather for a tick JD

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suck a couple of these mate.
Please do it.

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So MPV 3.6 bill at an 8%
discount rate, 100% IRR.

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But that was using 717 hundred
bucks USA tonne spot.

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So obviously considerably below
that now, but we're not mining

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it for fucking four years.
So US $253 million CapEx or US

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300 mil if they were going to do
phase one and two together.

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So I'll see and this is for DMS
only that's and we'll we'll get

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into that for this project and
we'll talk about the

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neighbouring projects that have
had a bit of success with it.

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So.
Yeah, that's, that's a great

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point.
And that ties into a lot of the

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the theories that people have
out there as to why Pilbara

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might be gone for this one.
It is interesting to note on the

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MPV comment that you make there,
Maddie, one of the analysts, the

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Baron Joey analysts asked near
the end of the call today about

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this sort of, you know, the the
financial metrics of the deal

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and it making sense and how
they're paying for it and all

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this sort of stuff.
And you know, you highlighted

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the fact that running through
the spot prices gives you an NPV

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of less than 500 million.
You're paying more than 500

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million for the company right
now.

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Obviously there's a lot of
caveats to that.

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They're they're paying in script
and all these sorts of things.

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But it was just interesting to
highlight the sensitivity of the

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project to the the to spot
prices versus the future

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projections on the lithium
prices.

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But I'm sure we'll get into that
much more when we get into our

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thoughts on the deal itself.
Yeah, and they're not like the

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General I think didn't Dale said
it.

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We're we're not mining this
until the price is deemed fit to

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do so, right?
Yeah.

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Exactly, so right production
side.

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So they were going for about
half a million tonne of spot

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5.2%.
So mostly a 5 1/2 percent

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product with ASC 3 product as
well.

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Whether they do like a that SC3
if they sell it or they just

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stockpile it and then put a
float in later on similar to

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what Greenbushes did.
I, I actually think it, it's a

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good point, Maddie, you raised,
I actually think listening to

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the way they spoke about it on
the call, they'll move away from

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this in time.
And they're trying to simplify

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it because, yeah, I think
they'll just focus on that 5.5%

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product.
And I think you just got to got

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to take a lot from this PEA with
a grain of salt because a lot

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has kind of changed since then.
And a lot of the rationale is

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Pilbara coming in and being able
to use their core competencies

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to make the project better than
the numbers that are highlighted

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00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:08,480
in the initial study.
Yeah, yeah.

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So as you said, JD big open pit
and high strip ratio 18 to one

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because it's like really it's
all like stacked.

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You'll see it.
It's all these like sort of

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00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,800
stacked lenses.
It's not like a big, bloody

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00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,280
massive humdinger.
But they're saying coarse grain

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00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,000
spot.
So DMS processing only so.

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00:10:30,560 --> 00:10:32,880
Yeah, I think the the the
geology is a great point,

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00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,200
Maddie, how it's kind of
stacked.

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00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,120
And there were a few questions
again on the call in this one.

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00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,240
You know, everyone can kind of
see that, the analysts can see

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00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,440
that and they're a bit alarmed
by it, especially when you throw

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00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,000
around terms like tier one.
That has got to be the most

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00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,480
overused term in mining.
Everyone knows it, but it still

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00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:49,360
happens.
Anyway.

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00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,080
Analysts were quite critical of
how it all hangs together and

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00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,480
you know that this wasn't
exactly highlighted in the

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00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,200
presentation that no surprise,
but there wasn't cross sections

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00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,160
like that in the slide deck
today.

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00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,360
But you know, Latin aren't
hiding it.

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00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,800
You can see it in the the
resource upgrade that came out

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00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:08,840
in May.
We'll we'll chalk up a couple

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00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:12,320
images so you can see now and
obviously we're not geologists,

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00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:14,440
but it's pretty clear that that
is harder to mind.

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00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:19,280
You said Maddie in 18 to one
strict ratio there again, they

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00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,360
said on the call, they're going
to try and pull that down.

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00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,800
They think that, you know,
they're confident that they can

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00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,680
pull that down.
They've remodelled it with the

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00:11:26,680 --> 00:11:31,640
updated numbers because the the
preliminary economic study only

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00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:35,520
used the initial resource.
So that's only 30 odd million

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00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:36,760
tonnes.
That's much smaller.

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00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,720
They've done a lot more work, a
lot more drilling since then.

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00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:41,520
So things are already looking
quite different.

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00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,600
I'd also give Pilbara a bit of
the benefit of the doubt here,

225
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,240
given that they've, they've got
a lot of experience with this.

226
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,880
You know, there are similarities
to the ore body that they have

227
00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,120
at Pilgangura.
They've also integrated all

228
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,680
sorting.
They've, they've commissioned

229
00:11:55,680 --> 00:12:01,000
that at Pilgangura and you know
that they have spoken to there

230
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,840
being less concerns around the
host rock.

231
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:06,120
It's not as problematic as we
might see at other operations

232
00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:08,920
out there, but you know it, it
is a challenge that they're

233
00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,600
going to have to overcome.
And you know, one more thing

234
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,040
working in their favour.
We spoke about with another

235
00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:16,600
project earlier in the week, but
they have cheap hydropower here.

236
00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,000
So it makes processing just a
little bit cheaper given that

237
00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,800
you you come your nuisance
circuit, the energy going in is

238
00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,520
one of the biggest costs when it
comes to to processing.

239
00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,800
If you're getting, you know, if
you're paying four or five cents

240
00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:31,800
a kilowatt there, then you know
the the costs are a lot more

241
00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:34,320
friendly than they might be in
other parts of the world.

242
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,960
Yeah, well, we've seen it with
our own odds that building or a

243
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:40,640
lot the internal docs within the
Spodgerbane ore body like it's

244
00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:44,560
something this this sort of
stuff is what Pilbara have

245
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,680
always dealt with essentially.
Now the all sortings come in,

246
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,000
which is I'm not too up on it,
but I assume the more you do

247
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,920
something the better, more
reliable it can't becomes.

248
00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,200
So yeah, yeah.
And then that's what'll need to

249
00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,120
be need to be used here.
You just got a shit load of GI's

250
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,520
marking the shit up in the pit.
Probably the other important

251
00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:10,000
thing as well is you know, this
is obviously still all at a PEA

252
00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,280
stage, right.
So but and you know, the

253
00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,160
projects change a fair bit, the
lithium mark has changed a bit

254
00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,440
since all of this was was put
out.

255
00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,960
But it'd be very interesting to
say what a assuming this all

256
00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:27,120
does go ahead, what a Pilbara
branded feasibility study would

257
00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,160
look like on this.
Yeah, no, I've heard, I've heard

258
00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:35,120
water mightn't be as simple as
as it seems over there.

259
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:39,440
Yeah, that's a, that's another
point to, to look at the

260
00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:42,120
comments in the initial study.
I went back and had a read they

261
00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,080
were, they were fairly muted on
that Maddie.

262
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:48,280
They they spoke about pipe and
water from 2 dams in the area.

263
00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,960
They also spoke about having a a
water recycling plant as part of

264
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:55,880
the the study off the top of my
head that was going to cost them

265
00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,720
30 or 40 million bucks.
So they talk about that from an

266
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,160
ESG lens, but you could be a bit
cynical and say they need the

267
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:05,080
water that.
Yeah, exactly.

268
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,160
Yeah.
So the the other big point I

269
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,920
think we have to talk about is
the permitting timelines.

270
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:14,360
And you know, not just as it's
applicable to Latin and the

271
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,280
project here, but what the read
through is on the permitting

272
00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,520
timelines of projects around the
world.

273
00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,840
So we'll flash up the slide that
we were chatting about

274
00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,320
internally earlier.
And you can see that these guys

275
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,760
mark this as as attractive as it
comes in terms of the speed to

276
00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,280
permitting.
They used the example of Sigma

277
00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:38,400
Lithium and that went in, in
roughly sort of four or so years

278
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:41,840
from the first permitting.
I think they had 16 months in in

279
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,000
construction.
Yeah, I'll bring, I'll bring up

280
00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,040
the I'll bring up the timeline
off off Sigma's website.

281
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:54,920
So like DFS in 2019 and I think
started construction 21 finished

282
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:59,880
Commission in Q123 and achieve
commercial production April

283
00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,240
2023.
So that's lot from from DFS to

284
00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:07,600
and they're in at 9 plate now.
I think they pumped out so

285
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,400
they're predicting about I think
it was 200 and 270,000 tonnes

286
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:16,880
spot per annum for stage one.
They pumped out 53,000 in Q1

287
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,920
this year.
So again, they're DMS only.

288
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:25,320
So like when you ask about like
and that's the the whole thing

289
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:30,160
is like, is this DMS only a
reliable processing option?

290
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:31,960
And where has it been?
Because I saw what happened at

291
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,600
like call lithium.
Obviously mount Catlin when they

292
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,720
were going through the finds had
really shitty ass recoveries.

293
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,960
Mount Marion.
That's effectively DMS only

294
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:47,320
because the floats there, but I
don't think they use it part of

295
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,160
me.
So you look at I think Sigma's

296
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:54,560
the the poster child for DMS
only and they from what I've

297
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,640
heard, like I don't think they
disclose it, but one analyst

298
00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:02,040
says they get around 65%
recovery DMS only and then

299
00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,960
obviously have fines coming out
as well.

300
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,960
I'm not sure if they sell the
SC3 or not, but if you look, if

301
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,160
they so if you can get, I think
effectively if you can get 60s

302
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:18,240
for DMS only look at because
pill Gangora got 72% last

303
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,320
quarter, but the quarter before
that they got 65% recovery and

304
00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:23,880
that's, that's with flotation
and everything.

305
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,680
So and yeah, we all know how
long it took to ramp up the

306
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:31,120
flotation, the extra CapEx.
So Sigma's DMS only option,

307
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,840
which was, you know, two years
from construction to bloody

308
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:39,840
commercial production, you'd
take, you'd take 60% mid 60s

309
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,520
recovery any day of the week.
Like if you, if you can maintain

310
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:47,000
them consistently through the
life of mine for the less CapEx.

311
00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,320
So compared to putting a bloody
flotation in, fucking around

312
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,000
with it for a year or two and
just to maybe get another 5%

313
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,040
recovery, maybe 10%.
And the speed to market?

314
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,160
Is Oh yeah, yeah.
So this, you know, if the if

315
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,400
this is if Sigma's operation to
go by, which is frigging 100 KS

316
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,720
down the road probably looking
like that's the way it's going

317
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,480
to go.
Yeah, I think it's a a good

318
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,119
point, Maddie.
And you can see in the study

319
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:18,160
they they modelled in for the
5.5% grade product 67%.

320
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,480
So they're they're aiming for in
and around the area.

321
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,000
You said on the point of
permitting, it's it's super

322
00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,079
interesting the speed at which
they were able to go from

323
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,800
permitting all the way through
to actually producing product.

324
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,600
I think, you know, it'd be, it'd
be awesome if the Western world,

325
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,280
not that you know, Brazil is in
a developed country, but places

326
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,920
like Canada and places like
Australia could learn a thing or

327
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,280
two about a project like Sigma,
which is not a tiny project, you

328
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:48,320
know, it's decent scale project.
If they could learn a thing or

329
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,800
two about how we can get our
projects online just a little

330
00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:54,600
bit quicker in, you know, the
same kind of responsible way, I

331
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,880
think.
But I think like North America,

332
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:01,360
it's whether the regulatory
agencies want to get it online

333
00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:05,360
quicker, it's up to the Cree
like the the natives like that's

334
00:18:05,360 --> 00:18:09,760
the they're the people that are
trying to you've got to convince

335
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,520
to be pro mining, which is.
Yeah, you you need buying on a

336
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:14,840
lot of parts.
It's not.

337
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,040
Very, very delicate.
Yeah.

338
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,000
Take, take phones away from
everyone.

339
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,760
They'll start bloody thinking
differently.

340
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:25,040
It's like you're grounded here.
You lost your phone for a week.

341
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,040
Bit of parenting there, right?
What do we think of the deal?

342
00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:33,080
There's plenty of varying
opinions going around.

343
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:38,080
There are mate, there there are
quite a few different opinions.

344
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,560
I mean, like anecdotally, I'm
not sure about you guys have

345
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,320
probably heard a few more
negative comments than I have

346
00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,240
positive.
I mean I.

347
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:48,840
I I heard more negative this
morning.

348
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,040
They've become more positive
through the day, people.

349
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,760
Have like digested.
Yeah, they're like, yeah, maybe,

350
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,560
yeah.
I mean, what what I'd kind of

351
00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,280
say is first of all, you can't
slag them for being pro

352
00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:02,120
cyclical.
So I think it's it's pretty

353
00:19:02,120 --> 00:19:04,440
awesome and it's pretty rare as
well that we talk about counter

354
00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:07,760
cyclical deals.
So that's a pretty awesome thing

355
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,560
and definitely to all the.
People the polar opposite of

356
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,880
Extrada buying Jubilee and the
nickel market crashing a week

357
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,280
later.
Polar opposite, unfortunately.

358
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:22,160
Is vagina buying azur?
Again through yeah.

359
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,000
And I mean that there are
people, you know, still slagging

360
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,560
them about the timing.
And I just kind of, you know, go

361
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:31,080
back to those people and say
nobody knows when when lithium's

362
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,160
going to turn around.
People were saying it's going to

363
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,600
be up, you know, in at least,
you know, over 1500 for years

364
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,600
and years and years to come.
And now people saying it's going

365
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:44,640
to be below 5 or 600 or
whatever, 700 for the rest of

366
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:48,160
the decade as well.
So, you know, you take all these

367
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,080
things with a grain of salt
because it's super, super hard

368
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:54,040
to predict where commodity
prices are going, but they're

369
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,920
roundabout in in the right sort
of ballpark of doing a deal at a

370
00:19:56,920 --> 00:20:00,520
time when the commodity price is
down over 90%.

371
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,880
Remember when it remember when
it shit itself at the start of

372
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,200
the year, JD and like talking to
the talking to everyone on the

373
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:11,720
desk and everything.
The consensus was it it could be

374
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:16,800
6 to 18 months before it's sort
of all stabilises and

375
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,480
inventories drop and we might
say something again and we're

376
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,120
effectively only six and a bit
months into that.

377
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:25,480
That's right since it was the
highest.

378
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,720
So like, it's still a.
Bit to go.

379
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,000
Still a bit to go.
Could it could could turn around

380
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,280
soon, could be still more to go.
But as I said, it's fucking

381
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,120
significantly.
These equities are significantly

382
00:20:36,120 --> 00:20:39,280
cheaper than they were frigging
6 to 9 months ago.

383
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,560
Yeah.
Yeah, one of the what?

384
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,960
Sorry, I was just going to say
one thing to add to your point

385
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:51,440
earlier, JD, is I think people
forget that, you know, Pilbara

386
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,520
aren't doing some sort of merger
of vehicles here where they're

387
00:20:54,520 --> 00:21:00,560
diluting, you know, a shit tonne
of their capital to get this

388
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,720
asset.
It's barely 7% of the enlarged

389
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,040
group, right?
And it's an, you know, it's a

390
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,600
call option on when things do
get better.

391
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,760
It adds what?
What was it, something like 30%

392
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,160
to their production profile.
Potentially 50%.

393
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,440
Or potentially. 50 right?
Right.

394
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:29,960
So I, you know, if I'm an
investor, which I am, I'd rather

395
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,840
them do a deal now and have the
call option and exercise that

396
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:40,600
when they're ready, the market's
ready, etcetera, rather than buy

397
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,920
something at the top of the
market at, you know, something

398
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,120
equivalent to their market cap.
And then, oh, then the lithium

399
00:21:47,360 --> 00:21:49,040
price, you know, crumbles in
this set.

400
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,520
And the other side, obviously
it's not as as simple as that,

401
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:57,360
but that's, that's just one view
purely from a a, a call option

402
00:21:57,360 --> 00:21:59,600
or shares on issue dilution
perspective.

403
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:03,920
And look, if you're a Latin
shareholder, like you wouldn't

404
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,360
think so.
This game's going to go.

405
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:08,040
If it goes through, it'll go
through by late November, early

406
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,000
December.
Like if you're holding Latin

407
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:15,880
shares at bloody in the low
teens, like, would you expect

408
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,840
the lithium market to recover
55% by November, December?

409
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,320
Probably a bit of a bloody bet.
I think Friggin, you know,

410
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,800
right, things are going
possibly, not likely could

411
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,920
happen, but you'd be, you'd be
taking the Pilbara Piper right

412
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,240
now and that gives the funding
solution to develop Salinas.

413
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,480
So you're not like there's no,
no big debt, no big debt, no big

414
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,760
cap raise needed.
You're getting a 55% premium,

415
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,320
you're not getting diluted
anymore.

416
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,680
And yeah, so it's, I think it's
a good deal for the Latin

417
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,080
shareholders at the time of the
market right now.

418
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,520
I think, I think you're spot on
with with I think 20 million in

419
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,880
cash when I last looked from the
the latest quarterly, you know,

420
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,280
you could you sure as bet before
the end of the year, they would

421
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,800
have been diluting again back on
on Pilbara to to round out the

422
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,480
thoughts on the deal there.
One of the knocks that you know,

423
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,640
is pretty genuine is that
they're obviously now no longer

424
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,920
a pureplay WA producer.
They're exposed to a different

425
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,680
part of the world, assuming the
deal goes through.

426
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,280
And maybe that does cost them a
bit of their premium valuation.

427
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:24,640
People mark it down slightly
because it's Brazil.

428
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,280
You know, there's been a few
companies that have gone over

429
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:27,320
there and they've struggled a
bit.

430
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,200
It's not everyone's kind of cup
of tea.

431
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,040
So that that one does hold a bit
of weight to it.

432
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,200
And interesting to hear on the
call that Dale was not really

433
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,920
eager to talk down any further
inorganic growth.

434
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,640
You know, he wasn't out and out
saying, no, we're not doing any

435
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,200
more M&A.
So it was just interesting the

436
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,880
the wording on that, on that
front.

437
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,720
Yeah, I think I think it's the
end of because it's early.

438
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:51,720
So as you said, they're not
really, it's not like they're

439
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,960
going freaking balls deep into
it right now, right where bloody

440
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,240
we're going to start building,
we're going to start doing this

441
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,240
because obviously when that
happens, like with the different

442
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,480
time zone, like it's you're not,
you need extra teams.

443
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:07,160
It's a lot of extra, lot of
extra work to like start working

444
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,320
in two jurisdictions.
But I don't think they're going

445
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,520
to be pulling the trigger too
quickly.

446
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,120
It doesn't sound like they'll do
can do much for two years, to be

447
00:24:15,120 --> 00:24:18,160
honest, in terms of progressing
it towards being built until

448
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,720
they are confident of a of a
price recovery.

449
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:21,520
So.
Yeah.

450
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,080
Like like we said before the
call it, it was initially

451
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,360
flagged to to be producing by
2026.

452
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,720
That's just not going to happen.
That was also kind of factored

453
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,240
into brokers models that this
would kind of come online.

454
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,760
So, so you know, one other way
of looking at it is that there's

455
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:37,600
sort of supply coming out of the
market or expected supply coming

456
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,560
out of the market.
They were very firm in saying

457
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,880
that they're going to bring this
one online when the time is

458
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,360
right, when the market can
absorb the tonnes that they're

459
00:24:45,360 --> 00:24:47,640
going to produce.
And yeah, you're going to get

460
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,840
people marking down the the
value of this in the portfolio

461
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,680
of, you know, projects and
assets that Pilbara have.

462
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,360
That was going to be the case if
they took on any undeveloped

463
00:24:57,360 --> 00:24:58,840
deal.
Yes, there's going to be a fair

464
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:02,480
bit of CapEx that needs to be
spent down the road, but at

465
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,200
least that's in the hands of
Pilbara now, right?

466
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,000
They can hopefully get the
permitting done much sooner than

467
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,560
they would in other
jurisdictions and they can

468
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,880
choose when they can go forward
with it as opposed to being

469
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:19,280
handcuffed until 28/20, 9:30
because of whoever Maddie, like,

470
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,960
like you kind of say, whether
that's the the government or

471
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,720
other sort of shackles that you
have in getting the project

472
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,680
online.
And it's been given and it's

473
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,400
been given to them resource
ready like a shit load of

474
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,760
drillings being put into this,
hence why the measured and

475
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,400
indicated level of the resource.
Like probably too late to now

476
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,560
because it's been so much
drilling done a drill like a

477
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,080
drill for equity arrangement
with K drill, but probably could

478
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,280
have saved a bit of capital
previously if they did go down

479
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,760
that road.
But doesn't really matter now

480
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,040
because they're getting bored
anyway.

481
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,760
So don't Jay.
So it doesn't mean any other

482
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,880
mining companies out there in
the gold fields can't like get

483
00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:04,960
in early now and give old Drew
Barbie a call to maybe talk

484
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,680
about, you know, the exploration
drill and maybe drill for equity

485
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,560
AJD.
Hang on mate, these guys are

486
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,680
going to have to do a bit more.
You know, I mean, there's plenty

487
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,440
of companies out there, but you
want to turn this all into into

488
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,440
a reserve one day caterer is the
the team you want.

489
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:20,760
Well.
And look, because it's a pretty

490
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,400
simple process, like you, you
know, drove his numbers in the

491
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,720
show night.
You give him a ring, he'll pop

492
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,760
down, come have a couple of
pints, talk some drilling, talk

493
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,360
opportunities.
Before you know you'll have a

494
00:26:31,360 --> 00:26:34,800
mill mineral resource filled
with RC and diamond holes, but

495
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:38,280
he of the highest standard, all
on the back of having a point

496
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,360
with Droba.
And a great mate.

497
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,360
Just a mate, he's a friend for
life that follow.

498
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,320
That's right JD, what about
Sigma?

499
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:52,600
So we talked about Sigma, the, I
guess you'd say the OG lithium

500
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:56,200
producer in Brazil.
Yeah, Sigma is an interesting

501
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,480
right, because they've been kind
of shopping themselves with a,

502
00:26:59,880 --> 00:27:03,440
with a for sale sign hanging out
the front for a while.

503
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,920
It was, you know, you know, very
explicit in, in how they were

504
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:07,920
kind of promoting it for a
while.

505
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,760
It hasn't happened yet.
Obviously the the stocks come

506
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,240
off quite a bit like it has with
every other lithium stock out

507
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,160
there.
But I mean, you, you took a dive

508
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:21,200
into what they're actually
churning out at Sigma there.

509
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,200
Why don't you run through that
and then we can kind of cover if

510
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,840
if there is something down the
track with projects tying up

511
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,240
together?
Yeah, like that and that's I

512
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,840
guess the comment going around
is like right, is this a bit of

513
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,240
a stepping stone to a bit of
further consolidation in Brazil?

514
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,120
Like look Sigma, they're looking
to expand or said they're about

515
00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:40,640
two 50,000 tonne per annum at
the moment or 270.

516
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,400
I think it was looking to expand
for phase two and throw it up to

517
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:50,480
766,000 tonne of spod per annum.
So like, yeah, so and then you

518
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:55,760
got Selena's PEI forecasts like,
you know, 4 to 500,000 tonne of

519
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,640
spods.
So combine that one day with

520
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,400
Sigma, like there's over a
potentially over a million tonne

521
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,400
of spod coming out of those two
projects in Brazil, in addition

522
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:12,200
to Bill Gangora potentially
expanding to 2,000,000 tonne in

523
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,600
the probably the far future
beyond the the P-1000 level.

524
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:21,360
So like that's the, that would
be the biggest fucking spot

525
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:24,960
producer in the world.
That's like shit, like if all

526
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:29,680
that piece together, if that's
like the long term plan, it's

527
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:34,480
that's becoming yeah, it's
that's whether they're doing

528
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,640
this to like think, right.
Either way, either we do

529
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,240
something now so we don't get
bought by Rio or something.

530
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:44,080
We have to get bigger to make
ourselves bigger and more

531
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:46,720
defensible.
Yeah, I mean it, it's a super

532
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,200
interesting point you raised
Maddie, the the idea of

533
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,440
expanding pill Gangura and
whether that is actually what

534
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,600
they should have prioritised.
I'm sure that's what a few

535
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,440
people are asking at the moment.
So obviously they chucked out

536
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:02,640
the study for P2000 not too long
ago that a CapEx of 1.2 billion

537
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:05,680
as we kind of ran through there
was hundreds of millions of

538
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,920
dollars that were not included
in that 1.2 billion.

539
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:13,120
So it was, you know, very
capital intensive, obviously

540
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:17,560
adding a lot of a lot of tonnes,
but it didn't receive the

541
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,000
warmest reception from the
market at time just sheerly

542
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,800
because of that price tag and
because of the fact that they

543
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,920
were talking about expanding
again in an oversupplied market.

544
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,480
Now you have to think they've
obviously compared to the the

545
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,960
two here.
And if you, if you look at it

546
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,120
kind of crudely, we're talking
about half a billion Aussie to

547
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,840
buy Latin add in, call it
another half a billion in CapEx,

548
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,360
half cash, half paper and you're
potentially getting 500,000

549
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:50,280
tonnes per annum at 5.2% down
the track, You know, all up a

550
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,400
billion.
It it does on, on those kind of

551
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,120
metrics, again, very, very kind
of rough and timelines are a bit

552
00:29:56,120 --> 00:29:59,280
different and all these sorts of
things, but one does look a bit

553
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,080
more appealing than the other.
Yeah.

554
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,080
And this is probably like the,
the smaller bite that they've

555
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:09,360
taken here, I think was probably
the lowest risk option for them.

556
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,120
So the market didn't burn them
for so called bad M&A.

557
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,640
Like it's not I I don't think
you can never call counter

558
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,040
cyclical M&A, bad M&A.
Bad M&A is the jubilee example

559
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:22,120
that we gave before like buying
something at the top of the

560
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,720
market like, but you know,
that's what the you know, the

561
00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:28,280
the high short interest was in
place likely for you know, the

562
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,720
natural lithium hedge, but also
the potential they were going to

563
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:36,080
do a deal and they have but it's
not I just said six and a bit

564
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,520
percent shares on issue.
It's not fucking.

565
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,720
Yeah, it wasn't.
It wasn't a sweep at Arcadian or

566
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,080
something.
No, in saying that it was, I

567
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,400
think people were still sort of
surprised, like, oh, Latin, like

568
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,320
they're thinking, oh, but why
not a, you know, a payment or or

569
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,640
something like that.
But I mean, we'll probably go

570
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,520
through that in a bit more
detail now as far as, you know,

571
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:02,400
even like a line town or Wildcat
or something, but which are

572
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,360
bigger.
But you know, each of them have

573
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,600
got their own sort of things to
to look at as well, which, you

574
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,480
know, on paper might look more
interesting.

575
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,800
But as far as ability to execute
is a bit of a different story.

576
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,880
Well, like Wildcats probably you
got, you know, I mean Rose

577
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,520
sitting there with 20%.
So that's just difficulty

578
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,640
straight away.
Longtown, you got Gina sitting

579
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,600
there, so that's difficulty.
Paymate.

580
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:28,960
You got Trudeau sitting there.
Oh.

581
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:33,200
Big truths.
Well, yeah, paymates the that's

582
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,080
the interesting one because
everyone's oh, Pilbara should

583
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,400
buy Paymetal Pilbridge should do
this site, buddy.

584
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,800
But if you look at well, that's
why I'm up together Latin verse

585
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,120
payment payments market caps
currently sits a bit below 700

586
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,680
mil Aussie was frigging 2 1/2
billion.

587
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,960
So that's how much that one's
come off so similar premium to

588
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,600
this.
That's like a what, one point

589
00:31:53,640 --> 00:32:00,240
one $1.2 billion deal probably
if you look at the ore bodies,

590
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:05,000
probably a lot more lithium at
Shaka Chewy Wana.

591
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:06,560
Is that how you bloody pronounce
it?

592
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,360
You.
Gave it a crack, Matty.

593
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:13,960
That's the main thing, Shaka.
Chewy Wana and and a lot thicker

594
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,880
like you'd you'd take the ore
body over the Latin one.

595
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,680
But as you said, look at Sigma's
timeline DFS to commercial

596
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,760
production four years.
So getting, getting a bit of a

597
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,560
foothold in Brazil, which is
just is, is such a low lower

598
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,800
barrier to entry to get a
project permitted and built

599
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,600
compared to Quebec.
That's just unfortunately how it

600
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,800
is.
And for the, for what they're

601
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,120
going to spend on it and the
amount of spot to come out of

602
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,720
Salinas, if, if it's, if it's
delayed a bit and it's not, it's

603
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,680
not going to be that hugely
impactful on Pilgrim Minerals.

604
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,800
I don't, I don't think like 4 or
5004 or 500,000 tonne.

605
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,240
So it's not going well.
And it's like 100,000 tonne

606
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,200
less.
They're already going to be

607
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,960
producing a million now to pill
Gangora.

608
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:02,080
So it's not like a massive
material bloody impact if it

609
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,160
doesn't ramp up.
So it's just like combining all

610
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,760
that.
It's such a lower a lower risk

611
00:33:07,760 --> 00:33:11,520
option and but then gives them
the opportunity to potentially

612
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,120
inorganically grow with Sigma as
well.

613
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:17,320
And I think that's just the bet
they're making.

614
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,640
They've they're betting on
Brazil versus Quebec.

615
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,360
Yeah, I think that's a that's a
good analysis to to kind of make

616
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,760
those, those permitting
timelines just really, really

617
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,040
stand out.
I don't and who knows if payment

618
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,880
would have actually done a deal
with them at at at this stage.

619
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:38,920
So look ex Pilgrim minerals Ken
Brisden he's he's just moved

620
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:43,120
over to Quebec because he came
on as payment top dog start of

621
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,520
the year.
So if you look at his actual

622
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,880
bloody, you know, if I'm running
a bloody mining company, I'm

623
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,120
thinking about right, how do I
make money out of this?

624
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,600
But it's pretty, pretty bloody
self set.

625
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,800
That's yeah, that's what I'll be
doing.

626
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:58,440
So a.
Couple opies to reprice.

627
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:02,920
If there's a change of control
he pockets 2 years salary so

628
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:07,040
that's about a mil plus another
up to a mil for the short term

629
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,080
incentive bonus.
So two years worth.

630
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,239
So you know to like you wouldn't
sneeze at 2,000,000.

631
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,440
But his real money is in his
options.

632
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:20,360
So he's got 450,000 Opies at 9
bucks 78.

633
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:21,800
So they're well out of the
money.

634
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:26,440
Well out of the money, their
share price is 4 bucks 43 and

635
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,679
then there's another 450,000.
I think they're priced about

636
00:34:29,679 --> 00:34:32,360
seven.
It was based on the price of

637
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,400
when he came in.
So I think they're about 7

638
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,560
bucks.
So even a 60% odd premium at

639
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:42,159
today's payment price on top of
what it is like they might be

640
00:34:42,159 --> 00:34:44,360
just in the money, but he
wouldn't make much out of it.

641
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:49,560
So his, his incentive is to wait
for a lithium turn around and

642
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,679
probably in the meantime keep
drilling progress, the bloody

643
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,000
traditional owner relationships
and the permitting and and all

644
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:00,440
that sort of things.
Unless there's a freaking turn

645
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,360
around and a huge offer that
comes their way.

646
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,560
So I couldn't, I couldn't say.
I'm doing a deal with Pilbara at

647
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,480
the moment anyway.
So they might have asked and he

648
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:09,920
said no.
Well, good mate, cheers.

649
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,760
Yeah, I, I think you spot on in
in your comments there, Maddie.

650
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:18,360
When you when you compare all
the options out there, taking in

651
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,480
everything into account, it kind
of makes a lot more sense that

652
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,800
Latin's the one they went for.
Obviously it was unexpected to

653
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,520
to me and a few others though.
What do you what do you think

654
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,480
about all script JD when they
got shit load of cash there

655
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,440
already?
It just makes sense.

656
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,040
I think look at the relative
outperformance with Pilbara and

657
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:41,080
every other company out there
it, it just makes perfect sense.

658
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,280
The the cash is precious.
When you're in a cyclical market

659
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,800
and you're in a downturn, you
don't want to waste that.

660
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,280
So I think that's very much the
the right decision.

661
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:51,520
Yeah.
And like just cause Pilbara

662
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,040
share price down as you said
relatively it is done a lot

663
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,560
better than everyone else.
So you could say technically

664
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,200
their script is still overvalued
in a lithium market.

665
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,440
So yeah, get it out.
It's all relative.

666
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,840
All, all relative bloody.
I think that's it.

667
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:11,160
I think we've covered.
Bloody just, that's everything

668
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:15,120
you need to know, I reckon.
There were a few other comments,

669
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,280
you know on on the call and in
the presentations and stuff

670
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,640
about sort of diversifying
themselves geographically, being

671
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:24,480
able to sell into other markets,
you know, perhaps less mature

672
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,960
markets in in Europe and in the
US.

673
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,160
That's a bit of a tweaking of
the style.

674
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,720
You know, obviously they've
they've got off take that goes

675
00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:34,360
to Asia right now that all
changes.

676
00:36:34,720 --> 00:36:36,240
Yeah, I think that that's kind
of interesting.

677
00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:39,800
But I think we've we've covered
most of the kind of key details

678
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,560
behind the deal there.
Yeah, good stuff, Good stuff.

679
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,000
I'll I like it.
I like it.

680
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:47,640
Go to Africa now.
Yeah, finally.

681
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:50,560
Like we've always been saying
fuck when, when everything's

682
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,400
cheap, when's people going to do
deals?

683
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:54,840
And it's happening.
Pilbara have had frigging cash

684
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:57,320
for ages, even though they
haven't used any of it for this.

685
00:36:57,680 --> 00:37:01,280
But I reckon it's like being a
pretty disciplined approach.

686
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,600
So yeah.
Yeah, interesting to see the

687
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,160
market.
Goes to 200 bucks a tonne but.

688
00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:09,240
For now.
For now, it does.

689
00:37:09,240 --> 00:37:12,720
Not go the mining industry.
They're all buggered anyway if

690
00:37:12,720 --> 00:37:13,600
that happens.
Mate.

691
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,160
They might as well go out
swinging, yeah?

692
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,600
Exactly right, JC, Onto the
peas.

693
00:37:18,720 --> 00:37:21,680
Onto the Peas, Perseus and
predictive.

694
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:26,240
So we saw aftermarket yesterday.
Perseus made a strategic

695
00:37:26,240 --> 00:37:28,320
investment.
Let's put the inverted commas

696
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,600
around that, our quotation marks
rather in a predictive

697
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,720
discovery.
Apparently you know it already.

698
00:37:34,720 --> 00:37:38,040
Was so word on the word on the
decline actually, actually and I

699
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:39,920
think this is I don't know if
he's knew this.

700
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:45,320
So tell us what what sort of
sparked this investment was that

701
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:51,680
I think Perseus got wind that
MMS were being looked at to go

702
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,000
actually do the mining services
contract in Guinea for

703
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:56,280
predicting?
Heading to Guinea?

704
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,920
Yeah, so they've, they've
thought, fuck, we better pounce

705
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:03,360
on this before this thing runs
away, 'cause mate, once the desk

706
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,160
gets rolling, like, like she can
just go.

707
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:07,400
You know the power of the desk.
Oh.

708
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,600
Mate, the algos just start
bloody the things just it's like

709
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:14,400
a tornado.
So mate, 'cause it's probably on

710
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:19,720
the back of the what MMS have
done for Black Cat at that miree

711
00:38:19,720 --> 00:38:22,000
project.
Like have a look at this first.

712
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,040
Or delivered two months ahead of
schedule.

713
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,160
Look at the fucking dirt flying
into those trucks.

714
00:38:28,240 --> 00:38:30,800
Geez, you don't see that often.
It's normally, you know, 10

715
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,520
months behind set schedule.
No, if all the bloody analysts

716
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:37,240
listening like mate, you Chuck
that in your model, pull the

717
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,960
first production forward two
months in your cash flow time

718
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,360
value of money that is worth
millions in the future, Chuck it

719
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,280
like the discount rate like
freaking unbelievable.

720
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,280
So pretty much if you want to,
if you want to get your first or

721
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,280
at least two months ahead of
schedule like MMS are the time

722
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,200
to do it.
So MMS and look at this and look

723
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:02,000
and it's materially converted
into a investment in predictive

724
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:03,280
by Perseus.
So there.

725
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,120
You go.
Are you going, are you going to

726
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:10,800
go into the first thing we saw
about this Perseus predictive

727
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,360
thing?
I'm going to say I'm going to

728
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,400
save that fun fact for right at
the end.

729
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,520
That fun fact the the one on the
iris screen?

730
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,440
Oh.
Oh no, that one's, that one's

731
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,240
coming very, very soon.
Yeah, that's in.

732
00:39:22,240 --> 00:39:23,240
So I'll look.
Forward to that one.

733
00:39:23,720 --> 00:39:28,000
So first, so first let's let's
set the scene right.

734
00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:33,680
So for those who don't know
Perseus, there are roughly 3 1/2

735
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:39,880
billion market cap Aussie listed
African gold producer.

736
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:46,120
They produce over 500,000 oz a
year between three mines, Edican

737
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:51,120
in Ghana, yeah, Oray in Cote
d'Ivoire and Sissingwe in Cote

738
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,400
d'Ivoire as well.
So here's a map of where they

739
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:57,880
all are.
They also have the Myer Sandgold

740
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,520
project, which is previously
known as Block 14 in Sudan when

741
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,320
they acquired Orca Gold back in
2022.

742
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,600
Unfortunately, there was a, you
know, big outbreak of

743
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,840
hostilities in Sudan last year,
which has been a pretty big set

744
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,240
back for the project there.
So Perseus have sort of

745
00:40:16,240 --> 00:40:19,000
deferred.
ID until the situation sort of

746
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:20,960
settles down there.
So they're just at the moment

747
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:24,600
it's a very low level drilling
and study sort of activities

748
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,440
there.
More recently though, they've

749
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:32,680
been in the press for acquiring
O Corp for about USA 150 million

750
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:38,960
bucks and they have the Nianzaga
asset in Tanzania and they did

751
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,320
that deal earlier this year and
that was a bit of a competitive

752
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:42,920
process.
Oh, the Battle of Nianzaga.

753
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,120
The Battle of Nianzaga.
Silver Corp.

754
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:46,840
Yeah.
So good times.

755
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:52,280
So that's got a 2.6 million oz,
all reserves, around 2 grammes,

756
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:54,680
all the key licences are
granted.

757
00:40:55,040 --> 00:41:00,960
They did ADFS of a couple years
ago showing a production profile

758
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:05,720
of of about 234,000 oz per annum
over 10 years.

759
00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:12,320
That's a bit of open bit and
underground and at the time at

760
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,720
this mind you this is at a a
gold price of US 1750 an ounce.

761
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:24,200
It had a post tax MPV five of US
618,000,000 and a CapEx of US

762
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,880
474,000,000.
Now just pop that in the back of

763
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,280
your mind for for for later.
Yeah, so.

764
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:33,360
Bit over one to one.
Yeah, bit over one to one, which

765
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:37,080
again for for single asset
companies and you know if your

766
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:42,240
market caps a lot less than the
CapEx can create a bit of

767
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,120
difficulty.
They're trying to get funding.

768
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:45,760
I can see you're building up a
narrative.

769
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:48,440
I'm building up the narrative.
We're going on a journey,

770
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,080
Matthew.
So there's an updated

771
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,600
feasibility study being prepared
by now.

772
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:59,080
The Perseus team who owned
Nanzaga expected later this

773
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:02,640
year, doing a lot more drilling,
feed studies, all of that.

774
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,280
FID is expected at the end of
the year and targeting first

775
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,720
gold in early 2027.
There's also the CMA

776
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,040
Underground.
They've got a Yayari, which is a

777
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:16,160
key growth project for them.
They're starting a portal sort

778
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,800
of mid next year with first
production anticipated mid 2026.

779
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:24,240
First first ever underground
mining coat for that one is that

780
00:42:24,240 --> 00:42:26,360
that was from our episode the
other week.

781
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:30,520
They have to, like Perseus Help
and Cote d'Ivoire developed the

782
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,920
regulatory regulatory framework
around Underground Morning

783
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:35,680
'cause it's never been done
good.

784
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:37,280
On you.
Good on your Perseus.

785
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:38,600
Go Perseus.
Go Australia.

786
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,280
Go Cote d'Ivoire.
Go West Africa.

787
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:46,920
So and stepping back on more
the, the, the corporate level,

788
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:51,560
Percy's made almost US $500
million in cash flow in the last

789
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,600
financial year.
And they've got a history of

790
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,320
achieving or exceeding guidance
since 2020.

791
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:01,560
So the last four years and
they've got US 587 million in

792
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:06,160
cash and bullying and no debt.
And I mean, look, look at this

793
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,520
graph here, right?
This is shows their sort of

794
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:13,920
production profile over the last
four years and their realised

795
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:16,480
gold price and all the
sustaining and that margin

796
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:19,640
between the gold price and all
the sustaining has just

797
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:23,680
continued to to grow in.
You know, we know, we all know,

798
00:43:23,680 --> 00:43:26,320
we've talked about it quite
extensively, the cost inflation

799
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:29,720
environment we've been in
recently.

800
00:43:29,720 --> 00:43:31,840
And now look, it has ticked up a
little bit, but you know,

801
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,120
relative to the gold price
that's super, super impressive.

802
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,360
So now let's move on to
predictive.

803
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,800
They're about 1/2 a billion
market cap company listed on

804
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,600
ASICS as well and they're a W
African gold developer and their

805
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,680
main asset is the bank and gold
project in Guinea.

806
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:54,440
So they've got 85% of that and
Guinea, you've got the balance

807
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,840
of that asset.
So they actually put out a

808
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:03,520
maiden mineral resource on that
only three years ago of 3.65

809
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:08,920
million oz.
Today that resource stands out

810
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:13,920
just sharp, 5.4 million ounces
of which 77 percents indicated.

811
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:18,960
And they also put a a maiden or
reserve out earlier this year as

812
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:24,560
well of just over 3 million oz
mostly open pit, but some

813
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:31,040
underground as well.
They put the PFS out on bank an

814
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:35,280
earlier this year in April,
which outlined a 12 year my

815
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:42,600
life, almost 270,000 oz a year
at 1.8 grammes per tonne per of

816
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,160
gold.
To give some context, this is

817
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:51,240
about 30,000 ounces more than
Nanzaga, which Percy has just

818
00:44:51,240 --> 00:44:55,600
acquired, and 50,000 oz per
annum more than Wolf's Kiaka,

819
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:59,480
which is currently in
construction and development.

820
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:06,400
So this PFS showed it of an MPV
5 which I hate in MPV 5, but

821
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,240
let's just roll with it in West
Africa.

822
00:45:08,240 --> 00:45:11,440
In West Africa in.
Guinea, West Africa in a high

823
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:16,480
interest rate environment.
Just anyway, I'll just get too

824
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:23,200
upset you and that's that and
that's at spot you. 2300 US gold

825
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:32,880
price is US 1.4 billion CapEx of
US $456,000,000 and that's for a

826
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,080
five and a half million tonne
per annum plant.

827
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:39,120
Now they say in their
presentation, oh, you know, it's

828
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,800
a really low capital intensity
per oz, but I think the better

829
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:46,960
measure is MPV to CapEx ratio.
I'm very much a firm believer

830
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:50,400
it's always margin over oz.
Doesn't matter how much you're

831
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,600
doing, as long as you're making
money off them, that's all

832
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:54,920
people care about.
Unless you'd be HP and Rio.

833
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,720
They don't.
They they love they love 10%

834
00:45:57,720 --> 00:45:59,680
IRS.
Oh, that's stunning.

835
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:03,960
So if you do do an MPV CapEx
ratio, this is mind you at spot,

836
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:11,080
it's around a three times ratio.
So 456,000,000 US CapEx is

837
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:15,480
currently a fair bit more than
the predictive market cap.

838
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:20,360
So again, this is a little bit
analogous to all Corp Nans Argo

839
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,080
when they put their study out a
couple of years ago.

840
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:26,800
Obviously there's there's still
a lot more work to do on that to

841
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,720
optimise it, convert more of
that inventory from resource

842
00:46:31,720 --> 00:46:35,640
into reserve, leveraging some
some of the grid power in Guinea

843
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:39,160
which they reckon could save
another US 100 bucks an ounce on

844
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,920
their all.
Sustaining what's the timeline

845
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,880
they have on, you know, the next
three or four steps?

846
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:49,480
Yeah, so.
The the timeline is second half

847
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:52,880
of this year.
They're expecting their sort of

848
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,600
approvals of their exploitation
permit, which was essentially

849
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:01,120
like a mining permit, then ADFS
sort of the year after

850
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:06,360
construction in sort of 27 and
then production in 28.

851
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:11,440
But arguably the most important
thing for Predictive now is

852
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:15,560
securing this exploitation or
mining permit given the assets

853
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:20,320
location in what's called a
peripheral zone of the Upper

854
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,120
Nigeria National Park.
So have a look at this map here.

855
00:47:24,240 --> 00:47:26,800
So it's like it's a real grey
area job, isn't it?

856
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:29,360
It's in.
It's right on this fringe.

857
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:31,480
Literally right on the fringe,
right?

858
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,760
Just makes it bloody.
It'll be just annoying.

859
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,640
Yeah.
So I mean look it's you can see

860
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:42,320
in the top right hand corner
there where North East bank and

861
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:45,880
and bank and central are.
So they're on that right sort of

862
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:51,200
peripheral area there.
So Predictive actually put a bit

863
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:54,160
of a detailed announcement out
on this back in 2021, but

864
00:47:54,160 --> 00:48:02,080
essentially that peripheral zone
mining of mineral deposits is

865
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:06,080
not permit, not permitted at
this stage.

866
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,840
However, there are precedence in
Guinea for mining permits to be

867
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,720
granted in environmentally
sensitive areas.

868
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:19,040
The submission of the PFS early
this year and they also

869
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:23,000
submitted their what's called an
environmental and social impact

870
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:27,120
assessment to the Guinea
government is a really important

871
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:31,720
part of securing this permit,
which as we sort of said

872
00:48:31,720 --> 00:48:35,240
earlier, we're anticipating
sometime in the second half of

873
00:48:35,240 --> 00:48:36,960
this year.
Yeah, right.

874
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:42,280
So they're they're obviously not
taking a full swing at them, but

875
00:48:44,240 --> 00:48:46,240
they want to be in the game.
They got their foot on the

876
00:48:46,240 --> 00:48:51,440
throat now. 100% So now if we're
taking that context into what

877
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,800
was what was announced the other
day.

878
00:48:54,800 --> 00:48:58,760
So Perseus appeared to have
taken a bit of a leaf out of the

879
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:03,880
Remelius playbook with a 13.8%
strategic investment in

880
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:07,000
predictive.
So they acquired about 325

881
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:11,520
million shares at $0.21 per
share from JB Boynton and other

882
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:17,520
entities linked to the investor
and the driller, roughly about a

883
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:22,440
$68 million Australian outlay
for Perseus.

884
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:27,920
Persis also have an additional
almost 3 1/2 percent economic

885
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:32,080
interest or about 81,000,000
shares in predictive by way of

886
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:38,000
cash settled equity swaps, which
brings their sort of total

887
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:42,080
interest, if you want to call it
to just over 17% if you include

888
00:49:42,080 --> 00:49:43,760
the swaps.
I've got a question.

889
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:47,800
Yes, what the fuck is a cash
settled equity swap JC?

890
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:52,240
I feel like this is that moment
in the Big Short where they pan

891
00:49:52,240 --> 00:49:54,640
to someone else to explain a
really complicated.

892
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:56,280
Finance to Where's Margot
Robbie?

893
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,760
Where's?
Margot Robbie Oh Jay.

894
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,800
So I had to, I actually had to
find a friend on this one

895
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,640
because it is it is a bit of a
complex 1 to explain simply.

896
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:11,800
So essentially what it is, is an
investment bank, you know, like

897
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:15,320
a, you know, Citibank or Baron
Joey or JP Morgan or whatever,

898
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:19,920
holds the shares on their own
account and has legal title to

899
00:50:19,920 --> 00:50:24,600
these shares on behalf of a
client who has a contract with

900
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,760
the bank that to essentially get
economic exposure to the shares

901
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:34,160
without physically holding them.
The clients in this case, Percy

902
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:38,520
will say, hey, he's, you know,
IB over here, here's cash, can

903
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:42,840
you and here's an agreement.
I want, you know, so many PDI

904
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:48,560
shares, the bank holds, acquires
them and holds them on the

905
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:53,880
bank's account.
And Percy's has that economic

906
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,920
exposure to those, those PDI
shares.

907
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,560
So the voting rights of those
shares actually sit with the IB.

908
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:05,520
But there's typically when I
mean saying IB, I'm referring to

909
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:08,960
investment bank, but typically
there's some sort of arrangement

910
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:12,960
that where the bank would sort
of just, you know, abstain from

911
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,680
voting or just vote with
whatever the proxy says and and

912
00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:17,520
things like that.
So I think, I think it's the way

913
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:21,200
and I think we talked about it
in the Remelius Spartan thing

914
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:23,520
when they were trying to figure
out where all those bloody

915
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,720
shares went.
So they can, they can

916
00:51:25,720 --> 00:51:32,920
effectively hold 9.9% of a
company without being touted as

917
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,200
a notified to be a substantial
shareholder 'cause they can have

918
00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:40,760
4.9 and a bit in their own name
and not be as substantial.

919
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:45,840
Then they can have say 4.9% on
swap and say they've effectively

920
00:51:45,840 --> 00:51:48,160
got 10%, but no one knows
they're a substantial

921
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:49,680
shareholder yet.
No, that's right.

922
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:54,480
So it's probably is is that?
So Perseus have had a. 3.45%

923
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:58,320
swap in place prior to this
stake.

924
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:00,000
Yes, that's right.
So.

925
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,360
So they've been on the register
effectively.

926
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,000
Yeah.
So it's, it's, it's a super

927
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:11,280
common way where you can sort of
build a position in a stock a

928
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:16,360
little bit more on the down low.
So covert op, a bit of a COVID

929
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:20,440
op, and we'll get into that a
little bit more later as well.

930
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,840
I think it was funny when you I
actually read that.

931
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,640
What is a cash settled equity
swap?

932
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:25,600
What?
What the hell is that?

933
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,800
But I just know it as swap.
Yeah, they just say, ah, we got

934
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,120
them on swap.
Got them on swap.

935
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:31,840
That's what they say on the desk
now.

936
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:35,440
You're all in on the lingo,
Maddie.

937
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:42,000
Oh I love.
It right, So what a so we we saw

938
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,440
something very interesting
yesterday afternoon, the

939
00:52:44,720 --> 00:52:47,240
execution of the block trade
itself.

940
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:52,240
So now look, everyone,
everyone's all had moments of

941
00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:56,080
stuff and shit up at the office.
It always happens where where no

942
00:52:56,080 --> 00:53:00,480
one's gonna be into it.
But this was just a classic case

943
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,840
of fat fingers on the keyboard,
right?

944
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,440
This is a carton.
This is what you define as.

945
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:07,800
That's a carton.
I think it's probably about six

946
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:14,480
cartoons maybe so not once, but
twice if you look, have a look

947
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,360
at this.
Let's have a look at the first

948
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,160
screenshot here.
What do you say is the problem,

949
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,760
Maddie?
OK, so that's that's Perseus.

950
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:26,760
And so there's, which is trading
at $2.48, but then there's been

951
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:33,120
an attempt to block trade
294,000,000 shares at $0.21.

952
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:36,520
Yep.
And then the sort of further one

953
00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:38,680
later now obviously.
And they tried again.

954
00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:42,720
Then they tried 17.8 million at.
That didn't work, so they

955
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,160
quickly reversed.
Yeah, Yeah.

956
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:49,440
So they quickly reversed them,
thankfully, and then put them in

957
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:54,040
the right company, which was
Perseus acquiring predictive

958
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,200
shares, not Perseus buying
Perse.

959
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:58,320
Yeah, Anyway, predictive buying
person.

960
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,920
Oh God, too many pays.
So they got.

961
00:54:00,920 --> 00:54:02,240
For him, there it was.
A pays.

962
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:03,880
Probably buggered that person
up.

963
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:04,960
It's just too many.
Pays.

964
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:07,400
It's too many pays.
Oh God, that would have been.

965
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:10,960
Imagine the yelling.
'S Oh, I'd be a bit scared, but

966
00:54:12,240 --> 00:54:16,560
so they got there eventually the
the the block trade got executed

967
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:20,680
and we saw very properly after
that the announcement come out

968
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,000
on ASX about the strategic
investment.

969
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:25,440
But Maddie?
But if you, if you, if you look

970
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:29,120
into the weeds there Ali and and
I'm sure you did the digging you

971
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:32,160
can, you can see that there was
a bit of action going on going

972
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:34,680
back a few months now, right?
No, that's right.

973
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:39,640
So this is, we'd seen sort of
back in the appendix of the

974
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,760
change of substantial holder
notice Percy's had been sort of

975
00:54:43,760 --> 00:54:47,840
buying small parcels of
predictive on market since you

976
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:52,160
know early April this year.
But even prior to that, they'd

977
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:56,240
been building their swap
position from as early as

978
00:54:56,240 --> 00:55:00,960
September 23, sort of building
that up sort of steadily till

979
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:05,400
till June of this year to where
they've announced it at about 3

980
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,720
1/2 percent.
They've got on swap of

981
00:55:08,720 --> 00:55:12,880
predictive as well.
So who's who are they buying the

982
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,680
shares of?
Tell us about this character.

983
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:16,680
OK this.
Is interesting.

984
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:21,200
So there's, there's again in
the, it's all, all the juicy

985
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:23,600
stuffs in the appendices, Madam
Jade.

986
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:29,240
So in that appendix, there's,
there's three sale agreements in

987
00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:31,320
there.
And from what I can tell those

988
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:36,120
sale agreements in those terms,
they're effectively, you know,

989
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:40,600
replicas of each other as other
than the, you know, the sellers

990
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,200
themselves.
So the first one, we've got

991
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:48,960
Jamie Boynton, 59 million shares
of Predictive BPM Investments,

992
00:55:48,960 --> 00:55:53,960
28 million shares of Predictive,
which Jamie is a sole beneficial

993
00:55:54,120 --> 00:55:58,400
odour of.
And then you've got roughly 225

994
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:02,440
million Predictive shares held
by Capital Limited.

995
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:07,480
Jamie Boynton is the the chair
of capital, which is they're a

996
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:12,200
London listed drilling company
around 300, three, 150 million

997
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,600
market cap.
He's also a major shareholder

998
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:19,320
according to the last annual
report, about 10% of capital.

999
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:24,200
And then, as an aside, Jamie is
also a substantial holder of

1000
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:27,960
Weir Gold.
So Jamie Jamie's got a big

1001
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,640
guard.
On he's got a bit going on.

1002
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:36,920
So with respect to the capital
component of of this sale, he's

1003
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:40,040
recused himself from all
dealings with those particular

1004
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:41,840
shares.
So the, the, the board's sort of

1005
00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:45,760
dealt with that separately, but
he for his as far as his

1006
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,920
personal shares with in his own
name and in BPM, he's

1007
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:53,560
essentially accepted the the
same terms as negotiated by

1008
00:56:53,800 --> 00:56:59,760
capital for, for those holdings
looking at capital actually made

1009
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:04,280
an announcement around the sale
of their PDI shares.

1010
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:08,320
There's sort of applying a lot
of those proceeds to reduce debt

1011
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:10,600
levels and sort of recycle
through the business.

1012
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:13,320
And Predictive is also a
drilling client.

1013
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:17,200
Of capital God now this was the
next bit was very interesting

1014
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,760
that I've never seen before in
the sale agreement yeah so.

1015
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,600
There's some, there's some
interesting terms in there which

1016
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:27,640
I hadn't, I didn't think was
super common until it was sort

1017
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,920
of pointed out to me.
A few other examples, but the

1018
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:33,280
key ones in there is there's a
profit share.

1019
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,760
So I'm just going to.
Clock MMS.

1020
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:40,560
Yeah, like, yeah, just like MMS.
So I'm going to, I'm going to

1021
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:45,200
group the three, the three
sellers into a group here just

1022
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:46,760
for the sake of explaining the
term.

1023
00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:50,600
So the sellers and Perseus have
got a profit share arrangement

1024
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:57,040
whereby they will share 5050 of
the profit if Perseus sells any

1025
00:57:57,040 --> 00:58:01,920
of the acquired shares in PDR to
a third party, whether that's

1026
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:05,600
you know, privately as part of a
third party change of control

1027
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:12,040
transaction and this sort of
condition or clauses in place

1028
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,520
until the 31st of December next
year.

1029
00:58:14,960 --> 00:58:19,480
There's also a call option.
And so if Perseus makes a

1030
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:25,120
takeover offer for Predictive
prior to 31st December next year

1031
00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:29,480
at a price greater than $0.21,
which is what they acquired the

1032
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:33,760
shares for, then the sellers can
acquire back those shares they

1033
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:38,120
sold and accept the offer.
At the price they sold them for.

1034
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,720
I think so, yes.
And then or cancel the call

1035
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,520
option for a cash for equal to
the premium.

1036
00:58:44,520 --> 00:58:49,760
So I think the way I understand
that is essentially what this

1037
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:56,400
means is these sellers maintain
some level of upside optionality

1038
00:58:56,440 --> 00:59:01,600
in the event that Perseus or
some other third party deal

1039
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:06,720
occurs at higher than $0.21 by
the end of next year.

1040
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,160
Yeah.
So they're like, right, If you

1041
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:11,160
want a strategic position in
predictive, the only way you're

1042
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,440
getting it is my shares.
But it's on these conditions, if

1043
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:16,240
you sell them, I get half the
profits.

1044
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:19,880
And if you take them out, take
us over, I'm going to get the

1045
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:21,840
same upside as I would if I kept
them.

1046
00:59:22,080 --> 00:59:23,800
Yeah.
Look at you.

1047
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,400
Oh boy, knees all over it.
I like him.

1048
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:30,880
Take Me Out for dinner, Copper.
Yeah, Interesting, right, buddy?

1049
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:33,200
Jesus Christ, you say?
I can see why you freaking

1050
00:59:33,200 --> 00:59:36,440
needed to go for a walk.
You go on date comma.

1051
00:59:36,440 --> 00:59:40,800
Go on date.
So what's so like Percy?

1052
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:44,280
This has happened pretty quickly
after the frigging all Corp

1053
00:59:44,280 --> 00:59:46,280
transaction.
No, that's right.

1054
00:59:46,280 --> 00:59:51,920
And, you know, as far as what it
means for Perseus, you know, if

1055
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:55,640
they wanted to go the full way,
I mean, you know, they've

1056
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,320
they've they've said actually
what we should have sort of

1057
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:01,080
flagged early as well that
there's no, you know, subject to

1058
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:03,360
the whole usual tease.
And there's no current intention

1059
01:00:03,360 --> 01:00:07,240
to, you know, make a takeover
offer for predictive.

1060
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,280
They're not currently in
discussions with the predictive

1061
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,880
all the rest of it.
But should they want to go ahead

1062
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:14,040
and do that?
I mean bank hand sort of fits

1063
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:18,200
perfectly into that sort of.
Percy's targeted portfolio of,

1064
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:22,800
you know, a 200,000 oz plus
producer high margin asset in

1065
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:27,480
Africa, as we sort of touched on
at the start, you know, Percy's

1066
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:31,880
focus for 25 and 26 would still
be that, you know, CMA

1067
01:00:31,880 --> 01:00:36,080
underground at Yarra and the
construction me in Saga with

1068
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:37,920
first Golden 27.
So you know, they've got plenty

1069
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:42,120
to keep them busy, but assuming
you know, they did do a deal

1070
01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:45,760
with Predictive, you can
envisage, you know, maybe a 28

1071
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:52,640
or 29 sort of sort of first gold
for bank can and you know a

1072
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:57,120
production profile, you know,
approaching 750,000 ounces.

1073
01:00:58,000 --> 01:01:00,680
I think it's, it's like it's
first in, first in the door at

1074
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:03,960
the moment.
Like I think there's a bit

1075
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:05,800
happening now.
Everyone's like, right,

1076
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:09,880
Companies are thinking
everything's cheap enough to

1077
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:12,800
start getting a bit up and now
look at what we talked about

1078
01:01:12,800 --> 01:01:14,440
today.
No. 100% it's time in the

1079
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:16,880
market.
JC it's time and fired up.

1080
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:23,040
And I mean, I think as far as
you know, why they've structured

1081
01:01:23,040 --> 01:01:26,080
it this way and you know,
perhaps they've learnt some

1082
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:29,360
lessons about the sort of the
silver court back and forth for

1083
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,200
all court, you know, so sort of
let's calling it doing a

1084
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:36,040
Remelius, locking in a stake
now, locking in the optionality

1085
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:38,520
now.
There's absolutely no as we've

1086
01:01:38,520 --> 01:01:41,360
just said, they've got plenty
going on in the next few years.

1087
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:43,480
So there's no need to rush to
act now.

1088
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:47,200
They can take over predictive if
they want later when they're

1089
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:50,520
ready or if someone else bids,
they can make their life

1090
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:55,720
difficult to and or you know,
sell into their deal, outbid

1091
01:01:55,720 --> 01:01:59,880
them whole raft of options.
It gives them sort of

1092
01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:04,320
approaching it in this way and
in this structure as well.

1093
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,160
What about for predictive?
Do you think it's positive or

1094
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,600
negative?
I think it's very positive.

1095
01:02:09,600 --> 01:02:12,440
I mean, it's just sort of, I
mean, the whole Percy's

1096
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:15,440
predictive thing is, is not
awfully new.

1097
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:20,000
You know, people sort of pitch
that idea multiple times.

1098
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:25,080
But I sort of made that, you
know, a bit of a more, you know,

1099
01:02:25,080 --> 01:02:29,680
a bit more of reality now.
I think it's honestly a matter

1100
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:33,960
of when, not if for a predictive
takeover.

1101
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:37,640
Whether it is, you know,
Perseus, you know is logical, it

1102
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:40,600
could be someone else.
I think, I think this does the

1103
01:02:40,600 --> 01:02:46,520
only negative is that it might
be a disincent.

1104
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,280
Disincentive is that a word?
Disincentivize competitive

1105
01:02:50,280 --> 01:02:53,760
tension just got, you know, once
they once they got the foot on

1106
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:59,880
it, it's like, right, that might
just deter other companies

1107
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:02,120
having a crack because they're
like, fuck, we're going to waste

1108
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,520
all this time.
And Percy's have already got the

1109
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:08,160
stake and the the power over it.
So that that's that's one is so

1110
01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:12,360
they're sort of bit from column
a bit from column BA little bit,

1111
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:15,160
as you said, that the logical
company take them anyway.

1112
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,400
So it's like if they could have
sat there with no one going for

1113
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:19,640
them.
No, that's right.

1114
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:22,720
That's right.
And I think the, the important

1115
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,840
thing of you know, or the more
probably the interesting thing

1116
01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:29,800
of why now, you know, banking
is, is still yet to receive it's

1117
01:03:30,400 --> 01:03:33,560
exploitation permit, which like
we said it's we're expecting

1118
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:36,400
later this year.
Persy is taking an interest in

1119
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:41,240
them now sort of probably months
before they're expecting.

1120
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:47,560
This permit surely indicates
some level of confidence that

1121
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:50,600
that that permitting will be
received.

1122
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:54,000
I mean, I imagine Perseus would
be pretty sensitive about

1123
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:57,480
geopolitical risk given what
happened in Sudan last year.

1124
01:03:57,480 --> 01:03:59,400
So they'd definitely be doing
the homework.

1125
01:03:59,400 --> 01:04:01,440
But still, it's never a
guarantee.

1126
01:04:01,440 --> 01:04:03,560
Till the till the fat lady
sings.

1127
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:07,160
Like they're looking at the work
they're doing is like holy snap

1128
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:08,600
and duck shit.
It can set them up for the

1129
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:11,960
future if they get this gown and
Zaga gown in addition to their

1130
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:15,040
existing operations and
diversifying themselves across

1131
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:17,760
Africa.
Making the plays now while the

1132
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:22,680
market's getting hated a bit,
which is explorers and

1133
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,600
developers are getting hated,
but that might start changing

1134
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:27,160
soon.
So getting in now is probably a

1135
01:04:27,160 --> 01:04:29,240
fucking good move.
Would you call it another

1136
01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:30,760
counter cyclical plane?
Oh, that's.

1137
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:33,920
Counter cyclical at a record
high gold prices which is

1138
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:37,200
freaking weird.
Yeah, what do you reckon, JD?

1139
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:40,360
I think we we might be
stretching the counter cyclical

1140
01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:43,120
term, but you're dead right.
The the junior end or the

1141
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:45,640
smaller end of the market's been
beaten up To your question

1142
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:48,520
Maddie on do you think it's
positive when you asked Ali

1143
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:52,040
before you know, you asked that
question to the market out there

1144
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:53,880
and you can see the answers are
pretty emphatic.

1145
01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:57,120
Yes.
You know 18% up is the share

1146
01:04:57,120 --> 01:05:00,280
price reaction today.
That's you know, what does that

1147
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,720
add another 100 or so million on
to the on to the market cap.

1148
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:07,720
You can see people are pretty
excited and you know, I, I

1149
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:09,000
thought there'd be a little
bump.

1150
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:12,240
I'm, I'm surprised it's up kind
of so much given that, like you

1151
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,200
say, Ali, you don't know when
it's going to happen.

1152
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,600
Is it going to be 6 months, 12
months, two years?

1153
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:21,120
But the conversation around
Perseus has changed quite a bit

1154
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:22,920
now.
I think it was only 6 odd months

1155
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,960
ago, Maddie, we were chatting
about Perseus and we were like,

1156
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:29,640
shit, you know, this is this
unfortunate stuff has played out

1157
01:05:29,640 --> 01:05:31,560
in Sudan.
What are they going to do for

1158
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:33,680
growth?
Now all of a sudden they've got

1159
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:37,120
all court, you know that, that
that's all gobbled up, that's

1160
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:39,320
done and they've got their foot
on another one.

1161
01:05:39,320 --> 01:05:42,400
So the narrative has changed in,
you know, a relatively short

1162
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:46,000
amount of time.
Bloody good work, JD.

1163
01:05:46,280 --> 01:05:50,120
Good work, JC.
That was freaking in detail, I

1164
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:50,520
think.
Yeah.

1165
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,680
Did you get deep?
And you're like, shit, Now I'm

1166
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:54,280
like, what have I?
Done.

1167
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:56,600
Now I've got to commit no.
I've I've got too far.

1168
01:05:57,280 --> 01:06:01,320
Oh God.
But I did come across actually,

1169
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,880
actually one other point I'll
just quickly mention before as

1170
01:06:04,880 --> 01:06:08,480
far as what it means for PDI.
This is again super analogous to

1171
01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:13,560
the All Company and Zaga example
of, you know, a single asset

1172
01:06:14,360 --> 01:06:18,240
developer trying to, you know,
spend a lot of CapEx for what

1173
01:06:18,240 --> 01:06:22,280
seems to be a great asset, but
their market cap, you know, is,

1174
01:06:22,280 --> 01:06:24,960
is far less than that that CapEx
bill.

1175
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:28,840
So have having that asset in the
hands of someone like a Perseus,

1176
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,280
you know, who could fund that
out of, you know, cash flows or

1177
01:06:33,280 --> 01:06:37,480
debt or something, you know,
less dilutive than equity is

1178
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,640
another positive point.
But I'd like to close on a bit

1179
01:06:40,640 --> 01:06:42,960
of a fun fact.
You beauty.

1180
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:49,040
So this is an extract from a
predictive announcement a couple

1181
01:06:49,040 --> 01:06:51,520
of months ago.
Look who PDI appointed as their

1182
01:06:51,520 --> 01:06:56,520
CEOCOO.
Does the name look familiar?

1183
01:06:58,160 --> 01:07:00,760
All Corp.
Who owns All Corp now?

1184
01:07:03,840 --> 01:07:06,960
Say it was.
Read into that what you may, but

1185
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:09,440
I thought that was a little
interesting too.

1186
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:13,760
Good work JC.
Good digging, right?

1187
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:15,720
Good work time.
Good night JD.

1188
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:17,600
We've got a RIP snort coming out
tomorrow.

1189
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:23,920
JD has got hold of ex head of
research and a previous director

1190
01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:27,920
at Goldman Sachs.
Wow, to come on Yeah, and talk

1191
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:31,320
in everything global energy.
In the big.

1192
01:07:31,320 --> 01:07:34,840
Apples from stateside.
That's it.

1193
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:36,400
It's a freaking group.
Stored up.

1194
01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:39,840
Nah, good stuff and thanks to
Bloody Axis Modern Technology

1195
01:07:39,840 --> 01:07:42,640
for servicing the whole world
with drill aisle survey

1196
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:46,280
instrumentation.
Also MMS verify spec power and

1197
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:51,080
technology, DSI underground,
Silverstone, CRE insurance,

1198
01:07:51,120 --> 01:07:55,600
Greenlands equipment, K drill.
It should be called K Drubber.

1199
01:07:55,840 --> 01:07:58,000
K Drubber.
K Drubber and.

1200
01:07:58,000 --> 01:07:59,640
Grab a spark chart while you're
at it.

1201
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:02,160
Uduru money miners.
Uduru, Uduru guys.

1202
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,520
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

1203
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:07,720
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

1204
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:11,320
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1205
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:13,360
person.
Before making any investment

1206
01:08:13,360 --> 01:08:16,439
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1207
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:19,560
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1208
01:08:19,760 --> 01:08:21,760
financial situation and needs.