July 15, 2024

Mega Copper M&A Manoeuvres

We kicked off the week entertaining some hypotheticals after the massive copper M&A rumours over the weekend about BHP and Lundin reportedly working together to put forward a joint bid for Filo and Rio potentially having another crack at Teck.

Matty then went into the weeds on the Bellevue quarterly, followed by Ally GC’s rapid fire on De Grey’s quarterly, Liontown’s new offtake and Meeka’s development progress.

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(0:00:00)Introduction

(0:02:07)Is big miner copper M&A on?

(0:24:03)Bellevue quarterly queries

(0:48:05)De Grey full steam ahead at Hemi

(0:54:34)Liontown locks in more offtake

(0:56:16)More cheap mining gear for Meeka

1
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Right eye buddy Waters.
Welcome to another week, Jay Say

2
00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:07,270
welcome back.
You're a regular.

3
00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:11,110
You're gonna be a regular cause
the fans love you, Trav.

4
00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,150
Jason, could you friggin imagine
if on the weekend you're

5
00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:17,970
drilling some exploration holes
in your jar?

6
00:00:17,980 --> 00:00:20,990
I broke.
Can you imagine that?

7
00:00:21,060 --> 00:00:24,630
Bad, bad, bad.
Stand down costs everyone money,

8
00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:31,130
but if you're using Axis gyros
24/7 they pick up the phone and

9
00:00:31,140 --> 00:00:35,010
they will ship on the weekend.
Life saver.

10
00:00:35,090 --> 00:00:39,500
Law absolute absolute godsend of
a company and I'll tell you what

11
00:00:39,510 --> 00:00:42,860
money miners yeah bloody ring
him up this week and you drop

12
00:00:42,870 --> 00:00:45,620
money of mine to get a free
trial.

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00:00:46,420 --> 00:00:49,780
That is a deal Sean.
He's numbers in the shy nights.

14
00:00:49,790 --> 00:00:53,040
Give him a ring. 22 week free
trial.

15
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,740
You got today.
Flying out the door, mate.

16
00:00:56,750 --> 00:00:58,440
Travel.
You're going on the big

17
00:00:58,450 --> 00:01:01,180
landscape.
It's like we're not building.

18
00:01:01,190 --> 00:01:03,380
We're buying these days.
And OHS, no.

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Maybe BHP's building.
Yeah, maybe Ryo's buying.

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00:01:07,050 --> 00:01:09,040
Yeah, that anyway.
But there's some, there's the

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00:01:09,050 --> 00:01:12,920
two biggest, you know, miners
that we think of when we think

22
00:01:12,930 --> 00:01:16,080
of big mining companies.
There's deal rumours about big

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00:01:16,090 --> 00:01:17,740
copper, deal rumours about them
going around.

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00:01:17,750 --> 00:01:20,950
So we're going to talk about
BHP, Lundeen, Philo and we're

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00:01:20,960 --> 00:01:22,380
also going to talk about Rio
Tech.

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00:01:22,750 --> 00:01:25,220
My Dolly snapping dog shit.
It's bigger than the Trump

27
00:01:25,230 --> 00:01:27,940
assassination scandal.
That story.

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00:01:28,910 --> 00:01:32,800
Right now Bellevue come out with
the early quarterly.

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Now I can only surmise that
they've put it out.

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So I did not have my attention
diverted to any other mining

31
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companies and they wanted me to
give it a full suite of a

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segment and I've done.
That there's a carton on the

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line, Maddie.
There now, yeah.

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Well, I think my landscapes
changed.

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Mixtape Cheese Say you've done a
bit of around the ground.

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Around the grounds with a
disgraced quarterly.

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Today we got the Lion town done,
small offtake and also Mika

38
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Metals as.
Well, Oh yeah, blowing up some

39
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bloody cheap mills.
I like the way they're

40
00:02:05,860 --> 00:02:07,390
operating.
Like it.

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00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:12,090
Right, Let's get into it.
Trav's big news from the big

42
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miners.
Is M and I about to?

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Really.
It's rumours about mate.

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Really start happening.
Yeah, I'll start with the more

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00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,590
material, more material sort of
deal on the table right now.

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00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,670
Well, look, BHP has apparently
been approached by Lundeen to

47
00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:29,050
put forward a joint bid for Filo
Mining.

48
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Late late Thursday, BHP actually
came out with the news of nickel

49
00:02:32,260 --> 00:02:35,340
W would go into care maintenance
until at least 2027.

50
00:02:35,470 --> 00:02:37,420
We didn't get a chance to chat
about that on the body potty

51
00:02:37,430 --> 00:02:39,820
cause we, we, you know, we
ripped the show by then.

52
00:02:39,830 --> 00:02:41,040
We put up an interview on
Friday.

53
00:02:41,050 --> 00:02:44,000
So made big news.
I suppose the one, the one thing

54
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out of that travel was like
shows how much money they'll

55
00:02:46,310 --> 00:02:49,650
probably losing if they're
willing to pay for $150 million

56
00:02:49,660 --> 00:02:53,440
a year to put it in the care and
maintenance, Phenomenal.

57
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Dreadful.
But yeah, I was.

58
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I was that.
I was like, geez, this is big

59
00:02:56,870 --> 00:02:58,760
news.
Didn't impromptu Twitter Spaces,

60
00:02:59,070 --> 00:03:01,740
Tommy Wallrich jumped on, Koala
jumped on.

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00:03:02,070 --> 00:03:04,260
We barely talked about Nicole
West, but we did, you know, have

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00:03:04,270 --> 00:03:06,210
a pretty interesting chat about
the state of capital flows in

63
00:03:06,220 --> 00:03:08,040
the mining industry.
It was actually pretty

64
00:03:08,050 --> 00:03:10,240
insightful.
So don't know, maybe maybe we

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00:03:10,250 --> 00:03:13,900
put it as a bonus audio only
episode on on Wednesday.

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00:03:14,330 --> 00:03:17,200
So yeah, if you watch this on
YouTube, make sure you jump on

67
00:03:17,210 --> 00:03:21,030
Spotify or Apple or whatever.
And so you can get that one on

68
00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,020
Wednesday.
Mate, nothing defamatory and

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00:03:23,030 --> 00:03:26,300
Twitter spaces that one.
Bloody risky though.

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00:03:26,310 --> 00:03:28,930
Twitter Spices.
I'll have to read, listen to it.

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00:03:28,940 --> 00:03:31,840
Actually, I'll probably said
something I shouldn't anyway.

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Now to the actual news though.
So Friday, on Friday, fellow

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share price showed up as much as
10%.

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And then it gets gets halted,
right?

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00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,610
Lundin mining shares briefly dip
and then recover.

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00:03:43,660 --> 00:03:47,010
And there's this story that
emerges in Bloomberg saying that

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Lundeen has approached BHP to
pitch them to jointly bid for

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00:03:51,380 --> 00:03:53,650
Philo.
There's some context that is

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important when we talk about
Philo and Lundin and everything

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00:03:56,310 --> 00:03:57,790
like that.
Unless you've been, you know,

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00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,190
paying close attention to the
Pecunia district dynamics, a lot

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of that context will probably be
lost on you.

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00:04:03,180 --> 00:04:05,380
So I'll, I'll try my best to
summarise the higher level

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points for the for the money
miners here.

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The Vacuna District in is is an
emerging kind of copper super

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district, as you know, high
grade, well, sort of lowish

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grade, but you know, there's
just copper porphyries, large,

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00:04:16,730 --> 00:04:19,620
large, large scale copper
porphyries almost everywhere.

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And then I know, I know little
Lacey isn't isn't a poorly, but

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00:04:23,540 --> 00:04:25,240
there's just buddy Copper
everywhere and it's all in this

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00:04:25,250 --> 00:04:26,900
kind of condensed district
called the Koonya.

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Which and it's sort of chilly
Argentina, it's near.

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The ball, yeah, yes, correct.
Yeah, it's the, the, the, the,

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it's not without its obstacles
like, you know, there's, there's

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00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,690
water politics, infrastructure,
like you said, you know, into

96
00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:43,210
country kind of dynamics.
But the size of the prize looks

97
00:04:43,280 --> 00:04:45,890
worth it.
The, the, the tenure kind of

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00:04:45,950 --> 00:04:48,370
most of it all used to sit
within Lundeen.

99
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,890
The Lundine spun out NGEX and
Philo into separate listed

100
00:04:52,940 --> 00:04:55,830
vehicles so they could
independently fund the drill out

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00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,930
of the, the various kind of
perspective projects that were

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00:04:58,990 --> 00:05:02,170
within that package.
Simultaneously, both Philo and

103
00:05:02,180 --> 00:05:05,940
NGX have independently had like
a lot of success doing just

104
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that.
Lundin Mining, however, owns the

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00:05:09,090 --> 00:05:12,400
the most advanced project
project in the in the region are

106
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being Jose Maria.
In fact, Jose Maria is Maria.

107
00:05:17,210 --> 00:05:21,140
Jose Maria is permitted to
finally ready.

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It's in San Juan.
So Jose Maria is it's it's not

109
00:05:24,250 --> 00:05:29,780
as sexy a project as Philo del
Sol just to the South of it, as

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00:05:29,790 --> 00:05:32,280
you can see in this map here.
But Jose Maria is permitted and

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00:05:32,290 --> 00:05:35,020
Argentina now has a supportive
regime, right?

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00:05:35,030 --> 00:05:39,830
You got Miley very pro business.
You know, there's just the time

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00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:41,870
is now in Argentina if you think
of it so.

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So for the Lundens who who think
about the long term, planning

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00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,950
the development with the long
term in mind means optimising

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00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:53,220
for the synergies to be realised
with Philo too.

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00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:59,790
Now, London Group retains a 33%
stake in Philo and BHP owns a 6%

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00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:04,500
stake in Philo.
So is there like you might have

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00:06:04,510 --> 00:06:09,120
this later but can BHP only do
something if they're on board

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00:06:09,130 --> 00:06:12,540
with the land deeds here?
Like the landings have a lot of

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control over the area.
Massive.

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I mean they retain 33% of fellow
so BHP can't.

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They can't do anything without
the support of of London Group.

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So it's a little bit if you
can't beat them, join them.

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Well, yeah, I mean, this is that
were that were separated from

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the from the London from the
London group into this

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independent vehicles.
And that's enhanced the

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acceleration of, you know, the
timelines of this whole super

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district.
And and now in order to actually

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get, you know, sort of the the
right funding and the right

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infrastructure in place, there's
got to be some reunification

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plan because the funding's kind
of got to be in a collaborative

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sense about the whole district
rather than just the independent

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project level.
And that's where, as you stop

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stuck Subsec article written in
February last year by the Koala,

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you talked about this scenario
where the Lundens could actually

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emerge with a fully funded
pathway to develop Jose Maria

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00:07:03,230 --> 00:07:07,140
via takeout of Philo and a
partnership with BHP.

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00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,350
Given the developments on
Friday, it's it's aged

140
00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,850
relatively well.
But in a nutshell, he reckons

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00:07:12,900 --> 00:07:17,030
Lundin Mining would end up
issuing stock to Philo

142
00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,250
shareholders.
Filo shareholders would

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potentially also get a spin out
of a royalty on Philo del Sol,

144
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:24,420
which could be worth a lot of
money.

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00:07:25,060 --> 00:07:30,770
BHP would commit to $6 billion
to you know sole fund Hose Maria

146
00:07:30,820 --> 00:07:35,030
CapEx and in exchange get a 30
between 30 and 49% stake in the

147
00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,880
Koonya Argentina, which would
you know be in a JV which that

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00:07:38,890 --> 00:07:42,530
Vicuna Argentina would involve
both Josemaria and Filo del Sol.

149
00:07:42,970 --> 00:07:46,190
Jesus cross spinouts, JV's and
fucker.

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00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,230
That's unbelievable isn't it?
That are spinning all that out

151
00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,950
then spinning a royalty out
there, having a JV for the whole

152
00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:53,350
thing.
It's phenomenal, isn't?

153
00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,640
It, well, yeah.
And it's a, it's a nifty kind of

154
00:07:55,710 --> 00:07:58,630
potential funding strategy that
could, could be pretty

155
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,010
attractive to, you know, all,
all three parties there.

156
00:08:02,020 --> 00:08:05,450
If you think about it, London
mining gets control of the

157
00:08:05,460 --> 00:08:07,930
development then because they
retain, you know, they retain

158
00:08:07,970 --> 00:08:09,790
majority interest in Pecunia
Argentina.

159
00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,230
So like they'll actually be in
control of the development

160
00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,330
pathway.
Jose Maria is effectively fully

161
00:08:15,340 --> 00:08:18,810
funded by BHP.
And recall London minings market

162
00:08:18,820 --> 00:08:21,890
cap is only like 9.2 billion and
the, the CapEx there is at least

163
00:08:21,900 --> 00:08:24,610
6 billion.
So it's, it's, it's challenging

164
00:08:24,620 --> 00:08:28,810
to fund that on your own and
then Lundens get a partner to

165
00:08:28,820 --> 00:08:30,880
fully fund that, which is pretty
attractive.

166
00:08:31,220 --> 00:08:35,570
And it would allow free cash
flow from Hosea Maria to go

167
00:08:35,580 --> 00:08:39,030
towards the pre strip of FILO
and which is kind of pseudo

168
00:08:39,039 --> 00:08:40,669
funded by BHP if you know what I
mean.

169
00:08:41,039 --> 00:08:43,710
It is bloody nifty eye, but
guys, better than nifty.

170
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,930
And like, on top of that, you
know, if you, if that, if that

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00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:50,810
royalty spin out a part of it as
well, it's, it's a pretty

172
00:08:50,820 --> 00:08:53,110
interesting kind of proposition
for, for fellow shareholders

173
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:54,830
too.
So let's see what actually

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00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:56,930
emerges in time.
But the logic for the deal is,

175
00:08:56,940 --> 00:08:58,990
is pretty compelling, you know,
for all of them.

176
00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:02,110
I think one of the key
considerations for, for Lundin

177
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,270
mining was they'll sensitive
about potentially, you know,

178
00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,190
requiring a vote of their own
shareholders.

179
00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,070
And when you issue more than 25%
of your, your, your stock

180
00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,720
shareholders need to vote on
that.

181
00:09:11,730 --> 00:09:15,560
That's where the fellow royalty,
you know, can play a role

182
00:09:15,570 --> 00:09:19,530
because it basically reduces the
number of shares issued in Filo

183
00:09:19,540 --> 00:09:22,000
Mining to go to fellow
shareholders.

184
00:09:22,060 --> 00:09:24,200
Taho that that role to You might
have said it before.

185
00:09:24,210 --> 00:09:26,350
Who's who's gonna hold that
royalty?

186
00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,110
It would it would be a this spun
out, but you as a a fellow

187
00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,730
shareholder owner today would
would be entitled to a

188
00:09:32,740 --> 00:09:34,310
potential.
I mean none of this is like

189
00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,970
really Daniel, this is just
Koalas conjecture at this point.

190
00:09:36,980 --> 00:09:39,450
Like would that that sounds like
that would end up in a friggin

191
00:09:39,460 --> 00:09:42,510
Franco Nevada or something.
Or not.

192
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:44,430
It'd be a separate.
Separate spin out listed

193
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,520
vehicle, which in its own right
could be yeah, pretty, pretty

194
00:09:47,530 --> 00:09:50,060
attractive standalone or could
ultimately end up taking over at

195
00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:52,350
depending on training dynamics.
But you know, you could imagine

196
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,660
a world where it's worth a lot
of money because the I mean some

197
00:09:56,670 --> 00:10:01,720
people have like compared if you
like Del Sol to to Escondido and

198
00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:06,620
imagine having like a a 2% NSR
for a fucking long time.

199
00:10:06,630 --> 00:10:08,500
Exactly.
Talking like 100 years of my

200
00:10:08,510 --> 00:10:12,120
life in these giant sort of
projects, and that's like a

201
00:10:12,130 --> 00:10:14,700
royalty with 100 years of my
life is pretty fucking

202
00:10:14,710 --> 00:10:16,430
attractive.
Royalty and shit, yeah.

203
00:10:17,270 --> 00:10:23,050
I think with this hypothetical,
you know would do you think BHP

204
00:10:23,060 --> 00:10:27,210
would potentially take issue
buying the minority in that JV?

205
00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,750
They, they pretend, I mean,
like, yeah, I'm sure, I'm sure

206
00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:37,320
they potentially would, but it's
just about having like who,

207
00:10:37,330 --> 00:10:41,180
who's really who's really who's
really gonna be calling the

208
00:10:41,190 --> 00:10:43,640
shots here.
Because the, the, I think the

209
00:10:43,650 --> 00:10:48,140
reality is like the Lundens have
far more say in how this is

210
00:10:48,150 --> 00:10:51,460
going to go than measly BHP who
owns just immediately 6% of

211
00:10:51,470 --> 00:10:54,410
Philo and you know, not more,
not much else.

212
00:10:54,420 --> 00:10:58,080
This is going to be like a deal
on the table for BHP to step up

213
00:10:58,090 --> 00:11:00,580
and say yes to.
I wouldn't be surprised to see,

214
00:11:00,670 --> 00:11:02,800
you know, if BHP is not there
for it, then I wouldn't be

215
00:11:02,810 --> 00:11:05,140
surprised to see, you know, the
equivalent proposition put

216
00:11:05,150 --> 00:11:07,730
forward to the Sumitomo's of the
world and things like that.

217
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:10,320
And you might actually get, you
know, like it might not be the

218
00:11:10,330 --> 00:11:12,670
same stake, but you, you might
see some real, real

219
00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,570
contributions from the Japanese
trading houses instead.

220
00:11:15,580 --> 00:11:19,590
But like, and if you think of
BHP right, they've, they've

221
00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:23,250
talked very recently, I think it
was their, their own head of

222
00:11:23,260 --> 00:11:28,610
copper said super recently that
they're much more interested in,

223
00:11:29,100 --> 00:11:32,110
in buying than building.
And this is building, not

224
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,260
buying.
And it's a, but it's a deal on

225
00:11:35,270 --> 00:11:37,790
the table for them right now.
At the time when copper growth

226
00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,110
is, is, you know, such an
important objective for them.

227
00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:44,930
I, I, I think that they should
pull the trigger on this.

228
00:11:44,940 --> 00:11:47,830
I don't know what their final,
you know, proportion of, of a,

229
00:11:47,900 --> 00:11:51,330
of a JV they might end up with,
but it's also don't know how HP

230
00:11:51,340 --> 00:11:52,930
really makes, makes their
decisions.

231
00:11:52,940 --> 00:11:55,650
But yeah, you know, in a, in a
world with very little

232
00:11:55,660 --> 00:11:58,810
attractive like copper growth,
this is attractive copper

233
00:11:58,820 --> 00:12:01,240
growth.
And the, the Lundens, it's not

234
00:12:01,250 --> 00:12:04,370
like they're like they're that
that's a great partner to have.

235
00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:07,750
They're super, super well
regarded and like, not too many,

236
00:12:09,090 --> 00:12:12,880
not too many people have
phenomenal working relationships

237
00:12:12,890 --> 00:12:15,600
in Argentina.
Guess what the London family

238
00:12:15,610 --> 00:12:17,110
does?
Yeah.

239
00:12:17,170 --> 00:12:19,720
And, and it's pretty light.
And it sounds like this could be

240
00:12:19,730 --> 00:12:23,400
the only way that BHP will get
exposure is working with them.

241
00:12:23,410 --> 00:12:27,180
And it's similar to, again you'd
say Riyadh stake in Escondida.

242
00:12:27,270 --> 00:12:29,800
It's not the big one, but
they've got exposure to it.

243
00:12:29,850 --> 00:12:32,820
Yeah, with BHB, it's not as big
as BHB's.

244
00:12:32,830 --> 00:12:36,120
And this might be what BHB has
to do to get exposure to this

245
00:12:36,130 --> 00:12:39,960
district by not being the big
dog, just being the partner.

246
00:12:40,010 --> 00:12:43,860
They're really attractive thing
did I see for the landings in it

247
00:12:43,870 --> 00:12:46,880
all is if is if they can yeah,
like basically shuffle the free

248
00:12:46,890 --> 00:12:50,340
cash flow of Jose Maria into the
pre strip of of of Philo.

249
00:12:50,450 --> 00:12:53,830
If it was if it was BHP in
control, would that be would

250
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:57,240
that be the location that BHP
chooses to allocate that

251
00:12:57,250 --> 00:13:00,940
marginal like free cash flow or
would run through there their

252
00:13:00,950 --> 00:13:03,650
capital allocation framework and
it might not, you know, go go to

253
00:13:03,660 --> 00:13:05,720
that location on the timeline
you wanted.

254
00:13:05,790 --> 00:13:10,640
So it's a really attractive
proposition to me if if mundane,

255
00:13:10,650 --> 00:13:13,450
retain operating control of that
region and they can, you know,

256
00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:17,530
really just shorten the timeline
to to bring Jose Maria online as

257
00:13:17,540 --> 00:13:20,040
much as possible.
Sorry to bringing Filo del Sol

258
00:13:20,050 --> 00:13:21,230
online.
It's possible.

259
00:13:21,300 --> 00:13:24,210
It seems to me it's sort of like
you were saying, Maddie, like

260
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:29,750
BHP seemed to be happy to sort
of forgo their previous thoughts

261
00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:34,810
around M&A to get this, this
copper exposure is worth it more

262
00:13:34,820 --> 00:13:37,350
to them.
Wonder if they'd be doing this

263
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:40,980
if the Anglo deal fell over.
Yeah, well, who knows what

264
00:13:40,990 --> 00:13:44,090
they're gonna come out with and
if they say yes or no to this,

265
00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:47,670
But yeah, I, I, I got no idea.
Maybe you got no idea, but

266
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:48,930
probably not, I suppose.
Yeah, it.

267
00:13:48,940 --> 00:13:50,100
Hasn't happened yet.
Hasn't.

268
00:13:50,460 --> 00:13:51,780
We're talking about in the
theoretical.

269
00:13:51,790 --> 00:13:54,470
Sense, but we're trying.
You're that fucking far ahead of

270
00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,680
the market like steps ahead.
You're like you're thinking that

271
00:13:57,690 --> 00:14:00,570
you're thinking about next
week's cuts underground.

272
00:14:00,660 --> 00:14:02,570
You're not thinking about
getting the one on the deck

273
00:14:02,580 --> 00:14:04,830
today.
No, this is what separates you

274
00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,660
from the pack.
Thanks, Mattie.

275
00:14:07,670 --> 00:14:09,920
There.
It's just good vibes.

276
00:14:09,930 --> 00:14:13,240
It's an inclusive environment,
buddy.

277
00:14:13,250 --> 00:14:13,760
Right?
What?

278
00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:15,280
So what's happening with Rio
then?

279
00:14:15,290 --> 00:14:17,440
So that's the BHP.
Specification.

280
00:14:17,450 --> 00:14:20,740
You'd think BHP would would
steal the show, but apparently

281
00:14:20,750 --> 00:14:24,570
Rio Tinto has moulded takeover
offer for tech.

282
00:14:24,750 --> 00:14:26,520
This is.
This is an interesting story and

283
00:14:26,530 --> 00:14:27,900
there's a big time pack here
too.

284
00:14:28,050 --> 00:14:32,100
But according to Sky News, yes,
Sky News, who isn't exactly

285
00:14:32,110 --> 00:14:34,440
known for breaking stories in
the mining industry.

286
00:14:34,530 --> 00:14:38,370
They say that Rio Tinto had
drawn up detailed proposals for

287
00:14:38,380 --> 00:14:42,340
a potential takeover for Tech,
including approaching banks

288
00:14:42,350 --> 00:14:45,670
about financing a deal.
That same article says a source

289
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,060
close to Rio said there was no
imminent takeover offer for

290
00:14:49,070 --> 00:14:51,190
Tech, though.
So I think there's some

291
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,400
important context here.
Firstly, it was it was literally

292
00:14:54,410 --> 00:14:57,820
Thursday last week that tech
completed the sale of its 77%

293
00:14:57,830 --> 00:15:00,330
interest in Elk Valley Resources
or VR.

294
00:15:00,340 --> 00:15:04,260
That's the the steelmaking coal
business, which they divested to

295
00:15:04,330 --> 00:15:06,800
to Glencore for about 7 billion
U.S. dollars.

296
00:15:06,810 --> 00:15:10,010
But it's a really, really like
top quality coke and coal

297
00:15:10,020 --> 00:15:14,400
business that tech is one of the
few companies with a fantastic

298
00:15:14,410 --> 00:15:18,320
kind of copper growth pipeline.
And with that divestment of VR,

299
00:15:18,330 --> 00:15:20,640
there's like no more fossil fuel
exposure and its production.

300
00:15:20,830 --> 00:15:23,060
With the ramp up of QB, they
reckon they're gonna double

301
00:15:23,070 --> 00:15:26,320
copper production to 600,000
tonnes per annum this year.

302
00:15:26,430 --> 00:15:29,800
So of course, mostly pure
applied copper company with

303
00:15:29,810 --> 00:15:32,780
growth is damn attractive to the
major miners.

304
00:15:33,150 --> 00:15:37,460
Fascinating that this deal,
potential deal leaks literally

305
00:15:37,470 --> 00:15:41,190
the day after Elk Valley, um,
divestment kind of complaints,

306
00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,250
but.
Anyone would think, Rayo said.

307
00:15:43,260 --> 00:15:46,070
Oh look, if you get rid of all
that, maybe we'll come to the

308
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,230
party.
Ohe yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

309
00:15:50,930 --> 00:15:53,280
Getting a deal done would be,
would you know, would absolutely

310
00:15:53,290 --> 00:15:54,860
not be straightforward though as
well, right?

311
00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:57,780
Because if you remember, last
week, the Canadian government

312
00:15:57,790 --> 00:16:00,530
literally, literally said it
would only green light foreign

313
00:16:00,540 --> 00:16:03,800
takeovers in the most
exceptional circumstances.

314
00:16:04,010 --> 00:16:05,320
So it's the exception, not the
rule.

315
00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:08,460
I think this one's a lot bigger
than 1.3 billion.

316
00:16:09,010 --> 00:16:11,280
Which one?
Yeah, that was the threshold.

317
00:16:12,980 --> 00:16:15,560
You know, potentially $30
billion kind of take out would

318
00:16:15,570 --> 00:16:18,550
be involved and I don't imagine
it would be a a particularly

319
00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:22,400
straightforward pathway to
control on the shareholder

320
00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:24,790
approval.
So you got the regulatory doubt,

321
00:16:24,860 --> 00:16:27,690
which it's the exception, not
the rule that Canada would allow

322
00:16:27,700 --> 00:16:29,170
it.
And then you've got the

323
00:16:29,180 --> 00:16:31,510
complicated shareholder pathway
as well.

324
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,930
So tech, they've got this stupid
dual class voting system.

325
00:16:35,940 --> 00:16:38,610
There's Class A shares and Class
B shares.

326
00:16:38,620 --> 00:16:42,530
Now the Class A shares get super
voting rights and they are

327
00:16:42,540 --> 00:16:47,450
largely controlled by the civil
family in in April last year it

328
00:16:47,460 --> 00:16:49,960
was agreed to phase out the dual
share structure in six years

329
00:16:49,970 --> 00:16:52,270
time.
But they they still exist today

330
00:16:52,970 --> 00:16:55,500
and for all intents and
purposes, the key for family

331
00:16:55,510 --> 00:16:59,290
still have the ability to to
defend any Rio Tinto offer in

332
00:16:59,300 --> 00:17:01,740
their own right by way of these
super voting shares.

333
00:17:01,900 --> 00:17:03,180
Codes.
The Caval family?

334
00:17:03,190 --> 00:17:05,099
Never heard of them.
Just really.

335
00:17:05,170 --> 00:17:09,300
No, they've got like 4
generations of of history with

336
00:17:09,310 --> 00:17:11,280
with tech.
It's yeah, it's one of those

337
00:17:11,290 --> 00:17:14,310
like, yeah, really well
established mining families over

338
00:17:14,319 --> 00:17:15,839
in Canada.
Ah, right, there you go.

339
00:17:15,849 --> 00:17:17,770
They sound rich.
They.

340
00:17:18,869 --> 00:17:21,579
Probably gotta gotta couple of
Bob to him.

341
00:17:21,810 --> 00:17:24,380
Yeah.
Evil family, There you go.

342
00:17:24,390 --> 00:17:27,450
Yes, as today the like you know,
the keepers have not been

343
00:17:27,460 --> 00:17:30,000
particularly receptive to to
unsolicited offers.

344
00:17:30,410 --> 00:17:32,620
Didn't Glencore bid for the
company last year?

345
00:17:32,670 --> 00:17:36,560
They certainly did Allie.
It was, it was emphasised by

346
00:17:36,570 --> 00:17:40,480
Gary Nagle, the CEO of Glencore
that, you know, the, the offer

347
00:17:40,490 --> 00:17:42,760
was, the proposed offer was, was
script merger.

348
00:17:42,770 --> 00:17:44,880
So textural holders would retain
upside exposure.

349
00:17:44,890 --> 00:17:48,660
And if the Rio rumour is true,
it sounds like they're planning

350
00:17:48,670 --> 00:17:50,850
at least a partial cash over.
I mean, they talked about

351
00:17:50,860 --> 00:17:52,240
getting financing in place with
banks.

352
00:17:52,250 --> 00:17:54,300
I don't think you do that unless
you planning to be with a good

353
00:17:54,310 --> 00:17:57,880
chunk of cash.
Ultimately the Glencore bid for

354
00:17:57,890 --> 00:18:02,220
tech, which was implied, you
know, value of 23 billion in, in

355
00:18:02,230 --> 00:18:05,100
Glencore script last year got
shelved and then a deal to just

356
00:18:05,110 --> 00:18:07,360
buy VR instead sort of went
through.

357
00:18:07,690 --> 00:18:10,740
But the, the tick tacking
between the companies back then

358
00:18:10,750 --> 00:18:12,940
was, was really fascinating.
In fact, I want to play this

359
00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:17,280
brief snippet from a BFA
conference last year Text CEO

360
00:18:17,290 --> 00:18:19,320
Jonathan Bryce.
Morning to you all.

361
00:18:19,550 --> 00:18:22,540
I do understand that in his
presentation this morning, Gary

362
00:18:22,550 --> 00:18:25,440
Nagle made reference to tech.
Now Gary and I have had the

363
00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:27,530
opportunity to chat several
times over the course of the

364
00:18:27,540 --> 00:18:29,400
last year.
And interestingly, I've learned

365
00:18:29,490 --> 00:18:31,360
that Gary and I actually have
quite a lot in common.

366
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,960
We each had long careers in
mining, we're around the same

367
00:18:33,970 --> 00:18:36,480
age and we're both relatively
new to the role of CEO.

368
00:18:36,750 --> 00:18:38,620
And as it turns out, we both
want to run tech.

369
00:18:40,260 --> 00:18:42,170
I think I remember you playing
that last year.

370
00:18:42,180 --> 00:18:44,430
Yeah, pretty funny.
That was yeah, mate May last

371
00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,610
year for reference.
Look, I think it's I think it's

372
00:18:46,620 --> 00:18:47,700
too early to really get in the
weeds.

373
00:18:47,710 --> 00:18:49,530
I wanna deal could look like and
like I said, it's it's a

374
00:18:49,540 --> 00:18:52,990
complicated pathway to control
for Rio or frankly any mining

375
00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,290
company for that matter.
And and throw in the fact that

376
00:18:56,390 --> 00:19:00,770
the possibility of more interest
from other miners to Koala

377
00:19:00,780 --> 00:19:04,690
mentioned on on the spaces that
we did the other night that that

378
00:19:04,700 --> 00:19:07,340
the final home for violates base
metals business would be tech.

379
00:19:07,350 --> 00:19:10,850
So there's, you know that that's
that's another possibility

380
00:19:10,860 --> 00:19:12,420
throwing throw out there as
well.

381
00:19:12,590 --> 00:19:16,420
I'm leaving leaving kind of vile
apparel focused on line or so.

382
00:19:16,430 --> 00:19:19,180
Yeah, I mean, look, the the the
marsupial is keen to follow up

383
00:19:19,330 --> 00:19:21,920
Thursday night spaces with an
Australian appropriate time

384
00:19:21,930 --> 00:19:24,180
zone.
So it might have a chinwag at

385
00:19:24,190 --> 00:19:27,480
7:00 PM per time tonight on on
those two stories as well, which

386
00:19:27,490 --> 00:19:29,980
is very much in his his
wheelhouse.

387
00:19:29,990 --> 00:19:32,800
They are the big, the big, the
big M, and a big, big end of

388
00:19:32,810 --> 00:19:34,010
town.
MNA Maddie.

389
00:19:34,170 --> 00:19:35,190
Yeah, nice.
He would.

390
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:36,760
Azz.
You can't see what he's wearing

391
00:19:36,770 --> 00:19:38,740
on spaces.
He's probably got a nice dress

392
00:19:38,750 --> 00:19:42,090
shirt on.
He was, well, he was much more

393
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:44,070
succinct than usual on on
Thursday.

394
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:45,850
OK, Koala.
Yeah, you would.

395
00:19:45,900 --> 00:19:47,550
You would have actually.
You would have actually liked

396
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,610
it.
Retained some of it.

397
00:19:48,620 --> 00:19:52,750
Yeah, one last comment just on
just on multiples.

398
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,730
Alright, so, so I just wanted to
simply talk about the EV EBITDA

399
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,040
multiples of some of these
listed copper producers.

400
00:19:59,050 --> 00:20:01,940
I put it on this table here a
little D next to the ones if

401
00:20:01,950 --> 00:20:04,190
they're big diversified miner
and the others are, you know,

402
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,040
mostly pureplay kind of copper
miners.

403
00:20:06,100 --> 00:20:07,430
And these multiples aren't
perfect.

404
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:11,430
It's it's based on kind of
consensus next 12 months, some

405
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:12,790
of them are ramping up
substantially.

406
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,730
So next 12 months isn't really
representative of steady state

407
00:20:16,740 --> 00:20:19,610
on have or anything like that.
But the point is pureplay copper

408
00:20:19,620 --> 00:20:22,660
companies command.
Much juicier multiple than the

409
00:20:22,670 --> 00:20:25,220
diversifies.
Take take Freeport for example,

410
00:20:25,230 --> 00:20:28,350
just as the benchmark there, you
know, you could think of them as

411
00:20:28,360 --> 00:20:30,780
like steady state, not much
ramping up of new production.

412
00:20:30,790 --> 00:20:33,640
They trade it, you know, above 8
times next 12 months.

413
00:20:33,650 --> 00:20:37,400
Ever compare that with the
diversifies, the larger

414
00:20:37,530 --> 00:20:40,980
diversified miners, which you
know, traded around five times?

415
00:20:41,090 --> 00:20:42,340
Yeah, I can.
I will.

416
00:20:42,350 --> 00:20:45,500
I can.
You can see why bloody Ivanhoe's

417
00:20:45,730 --> 00:20:48,620
frigging screaming at at 14.8
times.

418
00:20:48,630 --> 00:20:51,380
It's not because of bloody
Robert Friedland, did you say?

419
00:20:51,780 --> 00:20:55,290
Saw it in the director's special
The Bloody Ivanhoe Verifier

420
00:20:55,300 --> 00:20:56,380
model.
But.

421
00:20:56,760 --> 00:21:00,170
That got that, got the absolute
shit clicked out of it on the.

422
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,390
Newsletter It was the most click
thing in that day.

423
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,030
Yeah, yeah, yeah, there.
There's your bloody multiple

424
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,930
proof.
Like, look, I couldn't believe,

425
00:21:06,940 --> 00:21:10,250
I'll bring it up here.
I couldn't believe the frickin

426
00:21:10,260 --> 00:21:15,390
blanket of copper that is at
this joint Air is just a metric,

427
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,550
absolute shit tonne of copper
there.

428
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:21,690
And look, I wouldn't have known
that if it wasn't for Steve to

429
00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,720
John and the team taking me to
the mine via the Verify model.

430
00:21:26,730 --> 00:21:29,590
Virtually mine tour, social site
tour, Save me.

431
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,070
Look, I didn't get the frequent
flyer points if I flew to the

432
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:35,300
Congo, but I didn't have to pay
the cash to go there either.

433
00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:37,580
I went there via the Verify
model I thought.

434
00:21:37,590 --> 00:21:40,940
About sits in the DRC and I
thought, you know what, I'd much

435
00:21:40,950 --> 00:21:42,790
rather stay in Perth and just
click through the fucking

436
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,230
verify.
So stay in the Verify team.

437
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,440
Thank you very much.
Anyone, anyone just Google

438
00:21:49,930 --> 00:21:54,590
verify Ivanhoe mines model
Ivanhoe verify model site to it

439
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,200
and you got the whole site too.
You see the whole body it's

440
00:21:57,210 --> 00:21:59,330
bloody brilliant.
So look if you want your you

441
00:21:59,340 --> 00:22:03,780
wanna trade it 15 times and just
make your life great like mine

442
00:22:03,790 --> 00:22:06,500
is now.
Get bloodier verifier model

443
00:22:06,570 --> 00:22:09,600
granted verify dot.
Com and get the verify EBITDA

444
00:22:09,610 --> 00:22:11,650
multiple rewrite.
Yeah, yeah.

445
00:22:11,710 --> 00:22:15,150
Easy, easy.
Simple, right?

446
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,080
Bloody.
Yeah.

447
00:22:16,090 --> 00:22:16,920
Right.
So what would?

448
00:22:16,930 --> 00:22:18,800
OK, zooming out, Trav.
Yep.

449
00:22:18,850 --> 00:22:20,570
For the Rio side.
What do you think?

450
00:22:22,660 --> 00:22:25,830
If if the story is true from me,
it would suggest a couple of

451
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:29,590
things.
Firstly, like three months ago,

452
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:33,790
Rio Tintos Copperhead said he
sees much more value building

453
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,950
mines rather than buying
existing assets.

454
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,170
So an acquisition of tech might
seem contrary to that statement,

455
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,470
but it's a bit nuanced, I think
because text cop portfolio, you

456
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,310
know, includes growth assets
which have pretty attractive

457
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,490
capital intensity about them as
well.

458
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,110
Unlike, and then the other point
is like, unlike BHP, Rio

459
00:22:54,120 --> 00:22:57,700
actually has a really attractive
copper growth profile ahead of

460
00:22:57,710 --> 00:22:59,950
themselves already.
Over the next five years, it's

461
00:22:59,960 --> 00:23:03,860
going to grow from 700,000
tonnes to 1,000,000 tonnes per

462
00:23:03,870 --> 00:23:05,860
annum, mostly thanks to Oriental
guy.

463
00:23:06,310 --> 00:23:09,000
So if if we were still hungry
for more copper despite it

464
00:23:09,010 --> 00:23:12,900
having a pretty damn attractive
growth profile, that that says

465
00:23:12,910 --> 00:23:15,240
something.
Yeah, yeah.

466
00:23:15,530 --> 00:23:17,740
What are they?
They're expanding Olympic Dam,

467
00:23:17,750 --> 00:23:19,520
aren't they?
Yeah, proposing too.

468
00:23:19,590 --> 00:23:21,700
But comparative or your toggle,
right?

469
00:23:21,710 --> 00:23:24,850
Yeah, you know.
Get the bloody double whammy

470
00:23:24,860 --> 00:23:25,540
there.
With you.

471
00:23:25,550 --> 00:23:27,980
Told Uranium.
Dwarfs Adam, yeah.

472
00:23:28,060 --> 00:23:30,390
Yeah, yeah.
Bloody fascinating.

473
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,330
Good stuff, mate.
OHS appealed.

474
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,310
Look, God, that's gonna be some
big news segments that'll fill

475
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,190
us out there.
God, man.

476
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,510
God, they better not.
Both happen at the same time,

477
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,810
far right.
Well, I don't think they're, I

478
00:23:41,820 --> 00:23:43,710
don't do this too much of the
radio tech one just yet.

479
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,470
And it sounds like you really
think you get approvals.

480
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,220
It might be the last we talked
about that one.

481
00:23:49,260 --> 00:23:54,060
But the the BHP like fellow
Lundeen, that's the story and I

482
00:23:54,070 --> 00:23:56,130
think that's going to that's.
Probably the best thing.

483
00:23:56,140 --> 00:23:59,230
If it doesn't manifest with HP,
it'll manifest in another way

484
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,070
with someone.
Else I'd say it's been stewing

485
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,110
in the background for a while.
Yeah, now good stuff.

486
00:24:04,120 --> 00:24:09,530
Right on to the next, uh,
Bellevue Gold add 36 million to

487
00:24:09,540 --> 00:24:14,270
the balance sheet that they said
free cash flow 41, but they

488
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,810
added 36 million to the balance
sheet.

489
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,330
The definition of free cash flow
should include first interest

490
00:24:21,340 --> 00:24:23,200
repayments.
Yes, cause it wasn't a principal

491
00:24:23,210 --> 00:24:26,010
repayment, it was a capitalised.
Interest not capitalising

492
00:24:26,020 --> 00:24:28,910
interest and then classified it
as principle and then paid down

493
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,320
that.
And therefore we don't wanna

494
00:24:30,330 --> 00:24:34,420
upset the CFL again.
But anyway, as I said, they

495
00:24:34,430 --> 00:24:36,420
thought of, they obviously
didn't want me to get

496
00:24:36,430 --> 00:24:38,860
distracted.
So I've just we've done a full

497
00:24:38,870 --> 00:24:40,580
segment for him.
They got it out early.

498
00:24:40,590 --> 00:24:43,840
Bloody good on you.
So look, 36 mil for the quarter,

499
00:24:43,950 --> 00:24:46,740
pretty bloody.
That's a bloody good result for

500
00:24:46,750 --> 00:24:49,630
mining ramp up.
We don't know payables and

501
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,210
everything but that's just what
what we know today.

502
00:24:52,260 --> 00:24:56,270
Like considering W Guild only
added 16 mil last quarter and

503
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,790
they they're unhedged and don't
have any debt.

504
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,010
So look well done to the bloody
Bellevue team.

505
00:25:02,020 --> 00:25:05,170
Sure it's it's fucking hard to
build them on and they've done

506
00:25:05,180 --> 00:25:10,370
it and we've seen numerous cases
recently that haven't lasted the

507
00:25:10,380 --> 00:25:12,850
distance.
So Congrats to all involved, I'd

508
00:25:12,860 --> 00:25:19,250
say let's let's get into it, my
Bureau butter and a mop of it

509
00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:22,360
before we get into the.
Segment I was gonna say, mate,

510
00:25:22,370 --> 00:25:25,010
you're you're much more
complimentary than you were just

511
00:25:25,020 --> 00:25:29,130
chin wagging beforehand.
Well, just just there's always

512
00:25:29,140 --> 00:25:32,430
questions, there's always
questions, but I feel good now.

513
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:37,340
Alright, so they've still got
debt of 219,000,000.

514
00:25:37,350 --> 00:25:40,200
I'll bring up the waterfall
chart is so 5 million was paid

515
00:25:40,210 --> 00:25:43,580
off is like debt, it's interest.
Yeah.

516
00:25:43,630 --> 00:25:46,360
So that's so they maintain 219
mills.

517
00:25:46,370 --> 00:25:50,140
So they've got the neck, the
there's a principal payment

518
00:25:50,150 --> 00:25:54,000
coming up in 30th of September.
So that's 6.8 million they've

519
00:25:54,010 --> 00:25:57,180
got in restricted cash.
So the Argonaut model has them

520
00:25:57,190 --> 00:26:00,840
repaying about 60 million in
debt per annum.

521
00:26:00,890 --> 00:26:05,480
So it takes it out three or four
years before that that quantum

522
00:26:05,550 --> 00:26:09,210
is is pied off, so.
And what are you boys thinking

523
00:26:09,220 --> 00:26:12,980
this water flow chart?
They've broken one of my rules,

524
00:26:13,990 --> 00:26:16,500
site expenditure, including
growth capital.

525
00:26:17,780 --> 00:26:19,050
What was one of my rules,
Maddie?

526
00:26:19,100 --> 00:26:21,500
Gotta separate.
It separated, right?

527
00:26:21,510 --> 00:26:22,780
What do you like?
What's your growth cap?

528
00:26:22,790 --> 00:26:26,830
What's so they've they've
they've grouped apex with

529
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,040
whatever they're spending still
sinking a shaft and all that

530
00:26:29,050 --> 00:26:31,290
sort of stuff for vent.
Like I want to see that

531
00:26:31,340 --> 00:26:34,500
separated.
You can't say you didn't inform

532
00:26:34,510 --> 00:26:37,150
everyone, Trav after your
brilliant segment.

533
00:26:37,220 --> 00:26:40,430
But anyway, let's just like,
let's light the waterfall chart.

534
00:26:40,500 --> 00:26:42,160
Let's get on to the nitty
gritty.

535
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:47,450
So they, they processed 2.
I'll bring up the table of the

536
00:26:47,460 --> 00:26:50,550
physicals what and I guess what,
what can we summarise from it?

537
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,530
They processed 240,000 tonnes,
so pretty bloody close to that

538
00:26:54,540 --> 00:26:56,370
name plate, 1,000,000 tonne per
annum.

539
00:26:56,380 --> 00:26:59,190
So it looks like the mills, the
dirts getting through the mill,

540
00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:02,590
but they only mined 200,000
tonne of awe.

541
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,670
So effectively mining hasn't
kept up with processing.

542
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,230
And you could also say there was
a lot more capital development

543
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,710
than operating development.
So the operating advance is

544
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,920
about half of what it was in the
last quarter.

545
00:27:16,340 --> 00:27:21,350
Operating development is pretty
much the old development plus

546
00:27:21,360 --> 00:27:23,210
everything sort of close to the
your.

547
00:27:23,220 --> 00:27:27,050
Once you get past all the the
escape ways and the stockpiles

548
00:27:27,060 --> 00:27:30,550
and everything, that's when
capital development turns into

549
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,800
operating development.
It's all the operating

550
00:27:32,810 --> 00:27:35,030
developments, the stuff that
goes to the ore.

551
00:27:35,780 --> 00:27:42,050
So odd surmise from that.
I reckon stopping is right up

552
00:27:42,060 --> 00:27:45,670
the ass of development.
Like the development isn't shit

553
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:49,810
loads ahead and I think probably
a better development pressure

554
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,680
on, which is always going to be
a challenge in in hard ground

555
00:27:53,690 --> 00:27:56,940
because you're just trying to
get bloody as far as you can

556
00:27:56,950 --> 00:27:59,560
ahead and putting all your
capital infrastructure in.

557
00:27:59,830 --> 00:28:02,980
But the rock just won't let you
get there quick enough.

558
00:28:02,990 --> 00:28:08,270
So that's that's my prediction.
Was gonna say merry for the

559
00:28:08,380 --> 00:28:11,440
money miners and for the non
technical heads out there like

560
00:28:11,450 --> 00:28:13,310
myself.
Can you explain what the

561
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,670
difference is between
development and stopping or?

562
00:28:16,740 --> 00:28:20,050
OHS yeah, cause well, that's
funny is it will cause and that

563
00:28:20,060 --> 00:28:23,250
was the other one and I'll I'll
I'll on the back of this.

564
00:28:23,260 --> 00:28:28,430
So stop stipple haulage 167,000
tonne, which is about what they

565
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,680
need every month.
And then but the development or

566
00:28:31,690 --> 00:28:36,200
was down because the obviously
the development advance is down.

567
00:28:36,210 --> 00:28:41,090
So you, I remember, I think it
was the Northern Star, one of

568
00:28:41,100 --> 00:28:43,900
the quarterlies previously
there, they said they target and

569
00:28:43,910 --> 00:28:46,000
I'm pretty sure everyone's
saying they're targeted about

570
00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:50,280
2/3 stopping all and 1/3
development or so your

571
00:28:50,290 --> 00:28:52,360
development.
Nor is what comes out when the

572
00:28:52,370 --> 00:28:56,640
Jumbos developed the ore drives,
the four and a half by 4 1/2

573
00:28:57,510 --> 00:29:01,480
excavations tunnels that you'd
use to get the machinery in.

574
00:29:01,490 --> 00:29:06,100
And then the stopping ore is
what comes out between the two

575
00:29:06,170 --> 00:29:09,100
the development drives.
So that's like the big bloody

576
00:29:09,110 --> 00:29:12,740
narrow mining, the bloody gold
vein and and a bit of shit

577
00:29:12,750 --> 00:29:14,940
around it.
That's your bulk mine and that's

578
00:29:14,950 --> 00:29:18,670
where that's the money maker.
But The thing is that's how you

579
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:23,680
get the most or out quickly is
the skipping all but the

580
00:29:23,690 --> 00:29:26,720
development or like say with
narrow vein mining, which is

581
00:29:26,730 --> 00:29:31,130
what this is not all of it, but
most of it is you have to mine 4

582
00:29:31,140 --> 00:29:34,100
1/2 metres wide.
So I bet you're stops, you might

583
00:29:34,110 --> 00:29:37,480
try mine them as thin as
possible to just get the vines

584
00:29:37,490 --> 00:29:39,530
out.
Might be, you know, two, 2 1/2

585
00:29:39,540 --> 00:29:42,820
three metres wide.
So you're grade for your

586
00:29:42,830 --> 00:29:46,900
development drive is lower
because you're taking more waste

587
00:29:46,910 --> 00:29:50,140
on the outside, whereas the
stopping or you're cutting it a

588
00:29:50,150 --> 00:29:53,130
bit Luna.
So if you have too much

589
00:29:53,140 --> 00:29:56,360
development or and you're not
getting enough stopping or out,

590
00:29:56,370 --> 00:30:01,450
your overall grade gold grade is
lower because you're diluting it

591
00:30:01,460 --> 00:30:04,310
with more development or
hopefully then the stopping or

592
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,810
catches up, which means lower
grade through the mill.

593
00:30:06,820 --> 00:30:11,130
So that's why they target 2/3
stopping 1/3 development.

594
00:30:11,140 --> 00:30:16,810
So that 167,000 tonne that they
got out of stopping for over

595
00:30:16,820 --> 00:30:20,610
250,000 tonne run rate is bang
on 60.

596
00:30:20,620 --> 00:30:23,730
That's 67%.
So that's 2/3 striping.

597
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,750
But because of the development,
they looks like there might be a

598
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,810
bit behind getting to the next
level of development or they or

599
00:30:30,820 --> 00:30:33,090
they didn't have as much and
they'll probably focusing more

600
00:30:33,100 --> 00:30:35,290
on capital.
The development was down, which

601
00:30:35,300 --> 00:30:40,270
bring the total down.
So, yeah, so look, looks like

602
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:46,010
there's a lot of work ongoing to
properly set up the ventilation,

603
00:30:46,070 --> 00:30:48,410
the pumping and the power
infrastructure.

604
00:30:48,510 --> 00:30:51,430
Because there, there there was a
comment, comment in there saying

605
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:56,150
that explicitly signed
infrastructure will like

606
00:30:56,160 --> 00:31:00,660
continue into FY25, which is
talking about the, you know,

607
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,670
pump, pump stations, ventilation
drives and I shouldn't

608
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,710
ventilation rises power, which
is like substations.

609
00:31:08,870 --> 00:31:11,800
And that will help increase
development rates.

610
00:31:11,810 --> 00:31:15,600
And look, because the challenge
with Bellevue is not not just

611
00:31:15,610 --> 00:31:17,940
the hardness of the ground.
You look at the verify model

612
00:31:17,950 --> 00:31:22,300
here again, publicly available
is that it's a very laterally

613
00:31:22,310 --> 00:31:26,510
spread out mine.
So H or body like because it's

614
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,940
there's one over here, one over
here, one over there.

615
00:31:29,010 --> 00:31:31,600
Yeah, like, you know, you
independent ventilation for

616
00:31:31,610 --> 00:31:36,760
those areas, independent pumping
infrastructure, more substations

617
00:31:36,770 --> 00:31:39,540
to get the power over there.
So it's it's a lot more to set

618
00:31:39,550 --> 00:31:42,700
up compared to, you know,
compared it to Spartan before

619
00:31:42,710 --> 00:31:46,280
when you've just got sort of one
decline going past each or body,

620
00:31:46,290 --> 00:31:49,000
you can then pump all the water
out together.

621
00:31:49,010 --> 00:31:52,410
You can set up the power
independent, but at the same

622
00:31:52,420 --> 00:31:56,220
area such that it's just a
challenge of the way the all

623
00:31:56,230 --> 00:31:59,650
body is.
So and because you got more,

624
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:04,030
more vent, more substations,
more stuff to set up that can

625
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,310
chew up the jumbos because you
need more.

626
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,770
It's more capital work.
That's all class, That's

627
00:32:08,780 --> 00:32:10,870
capital.
But the more capital work you

628
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,030
do, the more you take away from
getting to the all quicker.

629
00:32:14,090 --> 00:32:18,290
It's more stuff to set up.
So and just it it just slows.

630
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,070
It can slow the mind down while
you're setting all this up

631
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,870
because you you're waiting on
getting another substation in.

632
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,010
So you might your power might be
tripping you waiting on getting

633
00:32:27,020 --> 00:32:30,010
vent drives in and rises pulled
through.

634
00:32:30,060 --> 00:32:33,360
So you might be getting our vent
to get enough trucks down to

635
00:32:33,370 --> 00:32:35,880
everywhere to get the dirt out
quicker.

636
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,040
If you haven't got the pumping
infrastructure set up, means you

637
00:32:39,050 --> 00:32:40,800
might be pumping the water out
quick enough.

638
00:32:40,810 --> 00:32:43,240
It's all flooding the decline
all the time and it just, it

639
00:32:43,250 --> 00:32:46,060
just slows the whole operation
down.

640
00:32:46,070 --> 00:32:49,230
It just feels like they're still
in that they are ramping up.

641
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,220
They're still in that phase of
getting the infrastructure set

642
00:32:52,230 --> 00:32:53,510
up.
This is what happens.

643
00:32:53,910 --> 00:32:56,160
Yeah, Yeah, it's fine.
Fuck it hard.

644
00:32:56,170 --> 00:32:58,080
It's easier talking about it on
a body.

645
00:32:58,090 --> 00:33:00,000
I can tell you that.
That's why I give it away.

646
00:33:00,140 --> 00:33:02,380
Well, I'll just, I couldn't cut
the mustard.

647
00:33:03,260 --> 00:33:11,530
So yeah, I think and I, I think
all of that combined is linked

648
00:33:11,540 --> 00:33:15,040
to the fact they're processing
recovery was 90%.

649
00:33:15,390 --> 00:33:16,690
Now, you wouldn't think that
would.

650
00:33:16,700 --> 00:33:20,800
You no, no, because the what the
feasibility study was 95%.

651
00:33:20,810 --> 00:33:26,440
Yeah, I think they were above 95
like per load, but I don't think

652
00:33:26,450 --> 00:33:31,130
that you can directly relate
that to having it out of the

653
00:33:31,140 --> 00:33:35,550
mill because the mill, the mill
has been designed for, I think

654
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,650
the reserve grade was 6.1
grammes.

655
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:42,950
So you can say that the Deacon
load high grade is like 9697%

656
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,710
metallurgical recovery.
But when you run it through a

657
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:50,250
mill that is designed for 6.1
grammes, you can't just Chuck

658
00:33:50,260 --> 00:33:53,810
high grade in and get that.
It's gonna like it's optimised

659
00:33:53,820 --> 00:33:58,390
for that, that grind or and I'll
get to why that so and so why,

660
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,030
why would the processing
recovery be low?

661
00:34:01,130 --> 00:34:04,470
Because and as I said, the
Montanans are less than the

662
00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,410
processing tonnes because you
want that the other way around.

663
00:34:07,420 --> 00:34:11,550
You want you want to be building
up stockpiles on the ROM side

664
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,480
that can be fed into the mill at
the optimum blend.

665
00:34:14,530 --> 00:34:16,739
So you want to get your high
grade ship, which is their

666
00:34:16,750 --> 00:34:20,219
Deacon stuff and the low grade
other stuff.

667
00:34:20,270 --> 00:34:24,989
Blend it down to get it at
around 6 and then you know that

668
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,980
you're getting the given that
given the best chance to get the

669
00:34:27,989 --> 00:34:30,620
best recovery.
And look, they're great.

670
00:34:30,630 --> 00:34:34,699
They're Stockport.
Their processing grade was six.

671
00:34:34,909 --> 00:34:39,960
But I'm, I'm, I'm thinking
because if the mind dirt is

672
00:34:39,969 --> 00:34:43,219
chasing the processing dirt,
especially the fact that they're

673
00:34:43,230 --> 00:34:46,280
in, they want to get a good
quarterly out, they're in ramp

674
00:34:46,290 --> 00:34:48,820
up.
So you have a high grade dirt

675
00:34:48,830 --> 00:34:53,600
sitting on the room in and it's
friggin 3 weeks till the end of

676
00:34:53,610 --> 00:34:57,040
the quarter and you gotta leave
it sitting there waiting for

677
00:34:57,050 --> 00:35:02,990
some low grade stuff to come up
to blend it in and maybe not

678
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,980
feed the mill?
Or are you gonna throw it in,

679
00:35:07,630 --> 00:35:10,720
get the answers and sacrifice a
bit of recovery?

680
00:35:11,820 --> 00:35:14,760
I reckon you gotta throw at it
once you get the cash because I

681
00:35:14,770 --> 00:35:17,700
need the cash.
I made the market to show that

682
00:35:17,710 --> 00:35:21,030
they're producing the answers,
which means you sacrifice a bit

683
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,150
of recovery.
And I'd say that's might be

684
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,010
what's happening because they're
chasing their tail a bit,

685
00:35:25,020 --> 00:35:29,010
getting the dirt up there.
So we're going to get so much

686
00:35:29,020 --> 00:35:31,890
more frigging info by the end of
the month when they release the,

687
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,450
you know, the production and
cost guidance and where the

688
00:35:34,460 --> 00:35:38,290
mines going.
But can I or can I only No, I

689
00:35:38,300 --> 00:35:39,790
won't say that, but you know
what I mean?

690
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:44,660
Or can only do what I can do?
Do you know what I was about to

691
00:35:44,670 --> 00:35:47,860
say no.
What were you gonna say?

692
00:35:59,660 --> 00:36:03,230
I look, I look forward to seeing
what I was a bit disappointed

693
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:08,380
not to get details of the cost
guidance and FY25 guidance in

694
00:36:08,390 --> 00:36:10,670
this quarterly, Maddie.
So now we gotta wait till the

695
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,230
end of the month.
I couldn't remember if they said

696
00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:14,390
it was going to come out in the
quarterly or maybe that's why

697
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,410
the quarterlies coming out early
and get that like going out

698
00:36:17,420 --> 00:36:18,810
later.
And then I'm reading broken

699
00:36:18,820 --> 00:36:22,130
notes about a potential plant
expansion to 1.5 million times

700
00:36:22,140 --> 00:36:24,550
per annum.
And I just, I, I don't know, I

701
00:36:24,660 --> 00:36:29,030
just always that's always read
these things and just like I, I

702
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,750
couldn't quite.
So there's obviously an analyst

703
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,090
site visit and now that analyst
is writing about a plant

704
00:36:36,100 --> 00:36:39,240
expansion to 1.5 million.
But I can't understand why why

705
00:36:39,250 --> 00:36:43,840
you why you do that expansion
now or why it wasn't your base

706
00:36:43,850 --> 00:36:44,960
case.
You're just body built the

707
00:36:44,970 --> 00:36:46,200
thing.
Why don't you build it the right

708
00:36:46,210 --> 00:36:48,430
size to start with?
Or is it the right size now and

709
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,360
this?
Is just yeah, yeah, Great story.

710
00:36:50,370 --> 00:36:52,710
I've.
Got a bit of a I've got a bit of

711
00:36:52,720 --> 00:36:55,880
a theory cause then that was in
the front page of and read that

712
00:36:55,890 --> 00:36:59,110
out yet that they've stuck
commenced to a scoping study for

713
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,260
a processing plant expansion
from 1 to one and a half million

714
00:37:02,270 --> 00:37:05,000
tonne per annum.
Think of might relate to what I

715
00:37:05,010 --> 00:37:06,720
was talking about before about
this.

716
00:37:06,730 --> 00:37:12,060
Blending like this is because to
do this, you you'll have to,

717
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,450
they'll have to bring forward, I
would assume additional mining

718
00:37:16,460 --> 00:37:21,290
areas that aren't included in
the plan as of yet that will,

719
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,920
you would assume be lower grade
because if they're higher grade,

720
00:37:23,930 --> 00:37:25,810
they'd be trying to fucking mine
them now.

721
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:29,710
But they're going to, you know,
bring forward other the other

722
00:37:29,720 --> 00:37:32,940
areas low grade that weren't
included in the original plan.

723
00:37:32,950 --> 00:37:36,660
So, and as we've seen from,
because we gotta find half a

724
00:37:36,670 --> 00:37:41,090
million tonne a year that which
means more gear, more areas,

725
00:37:41,100 --> 00:37:42,710
more it has to come from
somewhere.

726
00:37:42,780 --> 00:37:46,730
So we've seen from the infill
drilling of that Deacon load,

727
00:37:46,740 --> 00:37:50,890
which is the honeypot for
Bellevue, it looks like the

728
00:37:50,900 --> 00:37:53,750
grades are looking to be higher
than originally forecast.

729
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,030
There's that high grade shoot
that they were talking about.

730
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,540
So there might be like a a
positive reconciliation because

731
00:37:59,550 --> 00:38:02,910
they wouldn't have they wouldn't
have wanted to overcall the

732
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:08,190
Deakin in that stage two study
because they've real fucking

733
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:09,710
committed.
Then you always want to under

734
00:38:09,720 --> 00:38:11,830
promise and over deliver,
especially when dealing with

735
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,670
high grades.
I don't know they and at no

736
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:16,750
point did I get the impression
that Bellevue was under

737
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:21,010
marketed.
Definitely not under marketed,

738
00:38:21,020 --> 00:38:23,570
but really you could, but they
could really shoot themselves in

739
00:38:23,580 --> 00:38:26,680
the foot if they aren't
conservative on a real high

740
00:38:26,690 --> 00:38:29,540
grade or body that could have
variance.

741
00:38:29,710 --> 00:38:34,540
So and it looks like there so
there might that might be yeah,

742
00:38:34,550 --> 00:38:37,640
might be a thing might not be.
So if if that is the case, if it

743
00:38:37,650 --> 00:38:40,960
is over reconciling and the
mills being designed for this

744
00:38:40,970 --> 00:38:45,420
frigging 6.1 gramme reserve,
maybe expanding the mill and

745
00:38:45,430 --> 00:38:49,880
bringing on some lower grade
areas is not just about adding

746
00:38:49,890 --> 00:38:52,800
more ounces to the profile,
which it will, but it might

747
00:38:52,810 --> 00:38:58,700
actually be about giving them
more flexibility to blend down

748
00:38:58,850 --> 00:39:01,540
that Deacon load to optimise the
plant recovery.

749
00:39:01,550 --> 00:39:04,860
Because if we've if we're if I'm
right in saying that they've had

750
00:39:04,870 --> 00:39:09,380
to haven't had the material on
the rum to blend the Daken lie

751
00:39:09,390 --> 00:39:13,020
down and they've had to throw
out through maybe getting more

752
00:39:13,030 --> 00:39:16,000
lower grade and getting more
stocks up there gives them a lot

753
00:39:16,010 --> 00:39:19,120
more flexibility to maintain to
optimise that plant and

754
00:39:19,130 --> 00:39:22,740
recovery.
So I'm not not sure like look

755
00:39:22,750 --> 00:39:26,240
and it's more answers which
would hopefully mean more cash,

756
00:39:26,330 --> 00:39:32,960
but it is more capital cause
like look that extra 5% recovery

757
00:39:33,250 --> 00:39:37,200
that they say they've sacrificed
5% recovery this quarter at

758
00:39:37,210 --> 00:39:41,030
seven and a half million cash on
the answers they produced like

759
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:42,810
because that would have been
sold at the spot price.

760
00:39:42,820 --> 00:39:46,340
The thing I don't understand
ready and if if this is the case

761
00:39:46,350 --> 00:39:50,840
and further Trev Trev's point
before this would have already

762
00:39:50,850 --> 00:39:54,140
been known before they started
binding, so why wouldn't they

763
00:39:54,150 --> 00:40:00,870
have started this at one and a
half million tonnes to begin

764
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,910
with?
A lot more capital they would

765
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,090
have been a lot more debt, a lot
more risk.

766
00:40:05,540 --> 00:40:09,570
I think staged approach is.
That's why.

767
00:40:09,660 --> 00:40:11,410
Is it?
Doesn't every all body have an?

768
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:14,890
It's a perfect an optimal rate
at which you can mine it.

769
00:40:14,950 --> 00:40:20,160
Not when they're spread out like
this, because they they do when

770
00:40:20,170 --> 00:40:23,790
they're when it's like I guess
one U1 going down.

771
00:40:24,000 --> 00:40:27,380
But when you've got additional
areas that you can go mine

772
00:40:27,390 --> 00:40:32,760
independently, no, it doesn't
because it can, you can set up

773
00:40:32,770 --> 00:40:36,160
additional mining fronts.
You do need additional capital

774
00:40:36,170 --> 00:40:40,590
and additional fleet, but you
can add to it a lot easier when

775
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:44,010
it's laterally spread out and
independent like this, so.

776
00:40:44,060 --> 00:40:46,590
You know what a cynic would
propose.

777
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:48,910
Ohi, I reckon it's exactly what
I'm thinking.

778
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,270
Too, Well, it's a, it's a, like
you said, it's more capital, but

779
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,970
it's a, it's a positive spin on
more capital and.

780
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,870
It's a it's a story.
It's a story, but you know, I

781
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:02,550
mean, I don't know, maybe I just
you wouldn't you wouldn't you

782
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:07,230
wouldn't be surprised to see us
a growth story kind of now, now,

783
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:09,770
now that we've proved where I'm
cash flow positive, you might be

784
00:41:09,780 --> 00:41:13,370
able to take some of the some of
the, you know, medium term

785
00:41:13,380 --> 00:41:16,570
stress off the the hedging and
the debt repayments and stuff

786
00:41:16,580 --> 00:41:19,490
like that.
If if you have a bit more better

787
00:41:19,500 --> 00:41:22,190
capitalization and yeah, and you
have a growth story.

788
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:23,720
You're talking about a capital
rise.

789
00:41:23,730 --> 00:41:27,100
Maybe.
Maybe it's a it's it's building

790
00:41:27,110 --> 00:41:30,180
up as a potential story to wrap
around a capital raise, isn't

791
00:41:30,190 --> 00:41:31,260
it?
Oht could be.

792
00:41:31,350 --> 00:41:33,900
Cause that, that I saw one
number floated for the mill

793
00:41:33,910 --> 00:41:39,020
expansion at 80 bucks.
But that's, that was just a

794
00:41:39,070 --> 00:41:43,500
research not.
But then you got the if there's

795
00:41:43,510 --> 00:41:47,330
additional mining fronts to be
mined, that's additional

796
00:41:47,530 --> 00:41:51,680
development capital for the mine
as well to create another half a

797
00:41:51,690 --> 00:41:55,370
million tonnes.
So it starts starts creeping U

798
00:41:55,380 --> 00:41:58,000
and if the God if there another
one to keep the eye on is

799
00:41:58,910 --> 00:42:01,540
because if they have development
is a bit of a bottleneck there,

800
00:42:01,550 --> 00:42:04,020
then develops.
They're doing it and like

801
00:42:04,030 --> 00:42:06,820
they're probably the quickest at
doing friggin underground

802
00:42:06,830 --> 00:42:08,750
development.
They're a bit over halfway

803
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,340
through their contract there as
well.

804
00:42:10,350 --> 00:42:13,190
I think it was a bit under 4
four year contract.

805
00:42:13,230 --> 00:42:15,660
I think they've been there two
and a bit years now.

806
00:42:15,700 --> 00:42:19,040
So it'll be interesting to see
if they return depending on

807
00:42:19,050 --> 00:42:23,120
develops plans, if they retain
the contract there or if they go

808
00:42:23,130 --> 00:42:27,430
down their own owner operator
routes with developed something

809
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:30,770
to keep the eye on there.
But they having them there doing

810
00:42:30,780 --> 00:42:33,880
the development is a freaking
pretty bloody important, I

811
00:42:33,890 --> 00:42:38,180
think.
But yeah, I think there's.

812
00:42:39,030 --> 00:42:42,610
Yeah.
Well, with 219 million in debt,

813
00:42:43,420 --> 00:42:48,020
there's potential to fund it
with operating cash flows, but

814
00:42:48,030 --> 00:42:52,900
it remains highly levered,
highly debt leveraged and a lot

815
00:42:52,910 --> 00:42:55,560
of everything's got to go right
to keep producing that

816
00:42:55,570 --> 00:42:58,830
operational cash flow, which
look, it can be done.

817
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,750
Or Will and I've got a bit of
cash balance here.

818
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,910
I don't know what they are trade
creditors position is right now

819
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,290
because I didn't report that.
Have to wait till till a later

820
00:43:09,300 --> 00:43:10,490
date for that.
Yeah.

821
00:43:10,530 --> 00:43:16,100
But then yeah, like you say,
there's a yeah that there could

822
00:43:16,110 --> 00:43:18,940
be, there could be like they're
in the deck and load, which is

823
00:43:18,990 --> 00:43:20,900
happy days.
And could you, could, you could

824
00:43:20,910 --> 00:43:24,280
cash fund it or, or you could
look to be prudent in a, in a

825
00:43:24,290 --> 00:43:28,020
time when you've got a full
valuation and equity fund a

826
00:43:28,030 --> 00:43:33,330
growth plan, but also also, you
know, over, over, over fund

827
00:43:33,340 --> 00:43:35,230
their growth plan and.
Take the pressure.

828
00:43:35,240 --> 00:43:37,540
Take the pressure off the cap
structure to know each other.

829
00:43:37,550 --> 00:43:38,950
Go.
Yeah, I sound like you, mate,

830
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,310
because last time I bet against
them during cap raise and you

831
00:43:41,320 --> 00:43:43,930
bet that they would.
And now I'm coming the other

832
00:43:43,940 --> 00:43:44,860
way.
I think you've gone the other

833
00:43:44,870 --> 00:43:49,490
way.
No, I, I still still got my eyes

834
00:43:49,500 --> 00:43:51,870
peeled, put it that way.
It's just like they're, they've

835
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,860
and look, it's they're, they've
just been adamant that they're

836
00:43:54,870 --> 00:43:58,430
not going to cause they want,
they want to be the management.

837
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,770
They wanna be the next Capricorn
sort of thing.

838
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:04,640
Executed fully, pretty much
fully funded.

839
00:44:04,650 --> 00:44:06,450
They did do that bit of a raise
last year.

840
00:44:06,540 --> 00:44:08,370
That was for the Tribune
decline.

841
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,450
I'll add a few raises.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

842
00:44:10,460 --> 00:44:13,380
But like for the project was.
There's a lot of equity that's

843
00:44:13,390 --> 00:44:14,630
going into this.
Yes.

844
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:19,430
Anyway I will get will get more
info by the end of the month for

845
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,650
the production and cost guidance
because yeah, it's one of those

846
00:44:22,660 --> 00:44:25,850
ones you'd want to say it like.
And what I guess what the market

847
00:44:25,860 --> 00:44:28,910
and myself are looking for is a
keen look.

848
00:44:28,980 --> 00:44:32,930
If they are a fucking aluminium
or a potash producer, I wouldn't

849
00:44:32,940 --> 00:44:35,670
give it this much attention, but
it's underground mining and I

850
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,950
love it.
So shoot before it.

851
00:44:38,020 --> 00:44:43,890
But you you wanna say, you wanna
say mining outrunning processing

852
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:46,990
and hitting that 1,000,000 tonne
rate before we even start

853
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:51,310
thinking about getting to 1 1/2.
But but there's yeah, it sounds

854
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:54,490
like there's still a lot of once
that infrastructure gets

855
00:44:55,380 --> 00:44:59,250
properly set, U yeah, wanna see
those physicals bloody

856
00:44:59,620 --> 00:45:02,640
outweighing each other.
So yeah, but look, cost

857
00:45:02,650 --> 00:45:05,850
guidance.
Just scrap those friggin days.

858
00:45:05,980 --> 00:45:10,080
DFS numbers, yeah.
And that and that should not be

859
00:45:10,090 --> 00:45:13,130
a surprise to the market that
they're going to be much higher

860
00:45:13,140 --> 00:45:15,290
than the DFS you would
anticipate.

861
00:45:15,650 --> 00:45:17,970
Yeah, I don't know.
Just don't know what brokers are

862
00:45:17,980 --> 00:45:20,380
running through their cost
assumptions.

863
00:45:20,390 --> 00:45:26,720
And there's a lot of yeah, yeah,
holds or or buyers with the

864
00:45:26,730 --> 00:45:28,850
target price just above current
price and stuff like that.

865
00:45:28,860 --> 00:45:31,330
So what if they had to revise
lower on the cost?

866
00:45:31,340 --> 00:45:34,230
Does that actually hinder,
hinder the share price?

867
00:45:34,240 --> 00:45:36,010
I don't know.
Yeah, don't know.

868
00:45:36,110 --> 00:45:37,470
Yeah, buddy.
Love it.

869
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,330
Love it.
Our goods go morning.

870
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,370
Go fighting.
Actually going off on a bit of a

871
00:45:42,380 --> 00:45:45,210
tangent.
We were talking about it this

872
00:45:45,220 --> 00:45:49,550
morning, the the Trump
assassination attempt, right?

873
00:45:49,660 --> 00:45:52,900
Over the weekend.
Just absolute madness, right?

874
00:45:53,690 --> 00:45:56,120
This is like literally the stuff
you say in movies.

875
00:45:56,270 --> 00:45:58,740
And look at this picture here,
right?

876
00:45:58,750 --> 00:46:02,020
I mean, look at Trump.
This is an incredible image

877
00:46:02,030 --> 00:46:04,020
regardless of what side of
politics you're on.

878
00:46:04,170 --> 00:46:06,160
He's literally just been hit by
a bullet.

879
00:46:06,170 --> 00:46:08,500
The Secret Service, allegedly.
Allegedly.

880
00:46:10,060 --> 00:46:12,230
Depending on the conspiracy
theorists, you listen.

881
00:46:12,240 --> 00:46:14,530
To the glass off the
teleprompter I've heard.

882
00:46:14,540 --> 00:46:16,930
But yeah, anyway.
The Secret Service is all

883
00:46:16,940 --> 00:46:19,720
rallying around him to protect
him, and he's raising his fists

884
00:46:19,730 --> 00:46:20,880
to the air to all the
supporters.

885
00:46:20,890 --> 00:46:24,470
I mean, no matter the adversity
he encountered, he's just

886
00:46:24,540 --> 00:46:27,410
dedicated to his cause and his
country.

887
00:46:27,480 --> 00:46:30,950
And the only person I know that
is more dedicated than Trump to

888
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:33,350
his cause and country is Maddie
Hall again.

889
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:37,030
With solutions.
Maddie Ohl making water grade.

890
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:42,800
Again, making water great again.
If the Gateway bladders weren't

891
00:46:42,810 --> 00:46:46,200
already sensational enough,
Maddie Hall has now got a brand

892
00:46:46,210 --> 00:46:48,520
new offering for the miners out
there.

893
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,480
Bladder rentals.
OHS really?

894
00:46:51,490 --> 00:46:53,140
Bladder rental?
Rental bladder.

895
00:46:53,210 --> 00:46:55,940
You can now rent a bladder.
Yeah, right.

896
00:46:55,990 --> 00:46:58,340
Try before you buy.
Try before you buy.

897
00:46:58,350 --> 00:47:00,420
Yeah, goods that.
It's like bringing back

898
00:47:00,430 --> 00:47:04,360
Blockbuster, but for bladders.
Yeah, yeah, cheap, cheap

899
00:47:04,370 --> 00:47:06,220
Tuesday.
Get a pizza in the bladder.

900
00:47:07,630 --> 00:47:09,650
But with Santa and party ready
to go, how?

901
00:47:09,660 --> 00:47:13,320
Good is so good.
Buddy Hall so you could get What

902
00:47:13,330 --> 00:47:16,780
do you get for Jay on a rental?
So you can rent out a get wet

903
00:47:16,790 --> 00:47:20,230
bladder to your mindset for as
long or as little as you need.

904
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:24,270
You get the full get wet service
with installation and all the

905
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,390
supports included just as if you
were buying one.

906
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,120
It helps miners reduce their
CapEx.

907
00:47:30,130 --> 00:47:33,490
I mean, what more could you?
Want so is there more?

908
00:47:34,370 --> 00:47:38,990
You know what, I don't know?
I don't know if you can get

909
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:41,410
better than that.
I mean, like big props to Maddie

910
00:47:41,420 --> 00:47:45,270
Hall and the teams dedication to
putting clients needs first.

911
00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:49,200
They're backing the bladders.
Go get wet and go straight.

912
00:47:49,210 --> 00:47:51,040
Have a look at.
Look at him here.

913
00:47:51,050 --> 00:47:52,790
Look at him with his.
Look at him.

914
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:54,270
Flawed.
Go get.

915
00:47:54,340 --> 00:47:57,230
Go get wet.
And go Australia, lover.

916
00:47:57,490 --> 00:48:00,290
Good, good work, Jason.
That's bloody.

917
00:48:00,460 --> 00:48:01,970
I can't believe you found that
image.

918
00:48:01,980 --> 00:48:05,410
That is, it's a powerful thing,
mate.

919
00:48:05,420 --> 00:48:07,650
What's going on around the
grounds, Jacey?

920
00:48:07,660 --> 00:48:11,140
So the first one, first cab off
the rag.

921
00:48:11,470 --> 00:48:13,940
Grey put out their calling in
Ding Ding Ding.

922
00:48:13,950 --> 00:48:16,620
I am a shareholder.
Lots of cash.

923
00:48:16,670 --> 00:48:20,360
Cash, lots of cash.
So they ended the quarter with

924
00:48:20,410 --> 00:48:26,860
$867 million of cash in the bank
and that was after raising 600

925
00:48:26,870 --> 00:48:31,860
mil or 600 bucks, sorry, during
the quarter, so much cash.

926
00:48:31,870 --> 00:48:34,560
They've earned over 5 million of
interest just for the quarter.

927
00:48:34,630 --> 00:48:37,440
They should be earning more than
that soon if they get in A5

928
00:48:37,450 --> 00:48:39,320
percenter that's bloody 40
bucks.

929
00:48:39,430 --> 00:48:41,150
Well, that's 600 only came in
late.

930
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:42,600
Yeah, yeah.
So they should be getting about

931
00:48:42,610 --> 00:48:46,760
10 mil 1/4 after this interest.
Yeah, fantastic.

932
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,830
You want equity returns, not
fixed income returns.

933
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,650
As a shareholder, I don't.
I don't want to.

934
00:48:52,810 --> 00:48:55,330
If I could interest the bank I
want share share it.

935
00:48:55,550 --> 00:48:58,270
At least it's paid for.
The bloody, The raising.

936
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:02,180
Fees OHT.
The clips, That's weird.

937
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:07,050
So the key takeaway is there's
not much new news.

938
00:49:07,660 --> 00:49:11,970
Credit approved term sheets was
you know received from a

939
00:49:12,020 --> 00:49:15,910
syndicate of banks for a $1
billion senior debt facility and

940
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:19,540
an additional $130 million cost
overrun facility that was

941
00:49:19,550 --> 00:49:23,530
announced during the quarter.
Degree saying that the that debt

942
00:49:23,540 --> 00:49:29,090
package and existing cash are
expected to fully fund the

943
00:49:29,100 --> 00:49:31,950
estimated capital cost of Hemi.
I like the use of the word

944
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:37,480
expected there formal docks on
the project financing is

945
00:49:37,490 --> 00:49:41,740
anticipated to get all sorted by
the end of this calendar year.

946
00:49:42,190 --> 00:49:45,580
Nath and EFA, the two to
government agencies, are

947
00:49:45,590 --> 00:49:49,170
considering participating in
that debt syndicate.

948
00:49:49,210 --> 00:49:51,370
So that new news, I didn't, I
didn't heard them.

949
00:49:51,380 --> 00:49:53,650
Before that was, I think that's
the first time I've seen them

950
00:49:53,660 --> 00:49:56,340
that was included in the in the
quarterly so.

951
00:49:56,710 --> 00:49:58,530
How do you feel about that as a
taxpayer?

952
00:49:59,490 --> 00:50:01,910
Well, given that most of the
other no funding hasn't gone

953
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:04,880
that way, hopefully this time
it's different.

954
00:50:04,890 --> 00:50:07,420
I mean, I haven't really dabbled
in gold too much, so it'll be

955
00:50:07,430 --> 00:50:09,960
interesting to see how this
goes.

956
00:50:09,970 --> 00:50:13,020
I mean, a lot of their previous
forays have been in what, like

957
00:50:13,030 --> 00:50:17,090
bauxite, potash, Carrie.
You know, sense.

958
00:50:17,180 --> 00:50:21,250
Mineral sands, all of that so
and final debt drawdown is

959
00:50:21,260 --> 00:50:25,510
primarily subject to the receipt
of enviro approvals and FRG by

960
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:28,380
the company.
Looking at the enviro approvals,

961
00:50:28,390 --> 00:50:31,540
the second section in their
quarterly, it seems that like

962
00:50:31,550 --> 00:50:34,290
they're progressing but on the
slower side.

963
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,080
Just quote from the quarterly.
These approval pathways are

964
00:50:38,090 --> 00:50:41,750
consistent with those published
in the HEMI DFS from September

965
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,130
23, although the timing of
receiving such approvals is

966
00:50:45,180 --> 00:50:48,860
uncertain.
Lots of progress and various

967
00:50:48,870 --> 00:50:52,800
items on the project development
front, including expressions of

968
00:50:52,810 --> 00:50:59,160
interest to contractors for a PC
or APCM bids for the Hemi plant.

969
00:50:59,270 --> 00:51:03,600
And we saw also a few days ago
the release of the Hemi regional

970
00:51:03,610 --> 00:51:08,560
study, which adds like around
another 140,000 oz per annum to

971
00:51:08,570 --> 00:51:14,200
Hemby between years 4/9.
Fuck this, I'm going to just

972
00:51:14,210 --> 00:51:16,780
sign it to grey.
Makes me nervous.

973
00:51:17,310 --> 00:51:20,070
Hmm, what?
What makes you nervous about it?

974
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:23,540
Maddie, let me go through my
nerve wracking reasons, right.

975
00:51:23,550 --> 00:51:27,000
1.2 green refractory deposit.
That is fucking huge.

976
00:51:27,070 --> 00:51:30,290
It is being built as a huge
operation.

977
00:51:30,550 --> 00:51:35,590
I'm like, is there is there a a
chalky risk to this that it

978
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:41,630
might not be that big and get
downgraded in the it's not as

979
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:43,670
big as everyone thinks it is.
I don't know if that's gonna

980
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,560
happen.
It's in the bloody pill brats.

981
00:51:45,570 --> 00:51:48,810
So it's going to be dealing with
friggin cyclones all the time.

982
00:51:48,820 --> 00:51:54,650
And it's like imagine the
imagine the quantum of randomise

983
00:51:54,660 --> 00:51:59,190
that would make the Oz that are
attributed to any cyclone delays

984
00:51:59,200 --> 00:52:03,650
up there.
And yeah, it's just, yeah,

985
00:52:03,660 --> 00:52:07,710
there's so many moving parts.
It's a brand new, I know you can

986
00:52:07,720 --> 00:52:11,190
recruit anyone you want, but a,
you know, a new company to build

987
00:52:11,200 --> 00:52:15,070
one of the biggest gold mines,
definitely the one of the

988
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:18,390
biggest recently built gold
mines in the country.

989
00:52:18,460 --> 00:52:21,440
And established in the process,
but one that does not exist here

990
00:52:21,450 --> 00:52:25,830
in Australia yet.
No, no, it's yeah.

991
00:52:25,900 --> 00:52:27,350
Makes me nervous.
And.

992
00:52:28,550 --> 00:52:33,150
Ding Ding Dong.
Yeah, and a team that needs to

993
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,290
prove themselves, not one that
is proven.

994
00:52:35,500 --> 00:52:38,950
Nah, and talk about a friggin
trial by fire.

995
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,980
It's but yeah, it's just, I
don't know.

996
00:52:42,060 --> 00:52:43,890
I don't know.
God, if it was fucking 1/2

997
00:52:43,900 --> 00:52:46,750
grammes, maybe there's a
refractory.

998
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:50,950
Well, as you say, just a .1
gramme a tonne movement when you

999
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:54,290
when you're mining or you're
processing, I mean in absolute

1000
00:52:54,300 --> 00:52:58,270
terms it's not huge, but in the
case of a 1:00-ish gramme per

1001
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:00,440
tunnel body, that's 10%.
Yeah.

1002
00:53:00,450 --> 00:53:02,140
And that, that's 12%, that's a
guy.

1003
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:06,560
Imagine a freaking 10% variance
in the recovery if the pox isn't

1004
00:53:06,630 --> 00:53:09,820
work when it performing like
yeah.

1005
00:53:09,890 --> 00:53:13,580
That's so not without it, some
without its challenges, but very

1006
00:53:13,590 --> 00:53:16,810
keen to see what.
Happens like travel.

1007
00:53:16,820 --> 00:53:20,160
I think you got listened to by
some people from the Fr.

1008
00:53:20,170 --> 00:53:21,860
I was listening to the
Chanticleer.

1009
00:53:22,030 --> 00:53:24,270
I didn't listen.
To this the other the other day.

1010
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:29,500
What would they say?
Shout out Macca, the guest, the

1011
00:53:29,950 --> 00:53:31,480
colleague he had on.
I forget it.

1012
00:53:31,490 --> 00:53:34,030
I'm sorry, No apologies for
that.

1013
00:53:34,090 --> 00:53:38,210
But she actually talked about
mining and I think I don't know

1014
00:53:38,220 --> 00:53:42,100
if it was specific about mining,
about impacts of rainfall being

1015
00:53:42,110 --> 00:53:46,390
negative, but and she said that
there's never been a mention of

1016
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:51,010
cost of guidance uplifts due to
better than expected rainfall.

1017
00:53:51,020 --> 00:53:53,050
Oh really.
And I feel that that came from

1018
00:53:53,060 --> 00:53:54,250
you.
Is it Miriam?

1019
00:53:54,540 --> 00:53:56,650
Yeah, I think it was.
Miriam she So she writes Rear

1020
00:53:56,660 --> 00:53:58,230
Window.
She listens to the shout out

1021
00:53:58,240 --> 00:54:01,020
Miriam.
That would be why.

1022
00:54:02,030 --> 00:54:05,280
She's the one that wrote the
cram care article off the back

1023
00:54:05,290 --> 00:54:07,430
of our work that she got from
the she got the inspired from

1024
00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:10,380
the party.
Ohe shout out, I'll just bloody

1025
00:54:10,390 --> 00:54:14,190
confirm it was her cause I'll
sound like a dickhead otherwise.

1026
00:54:18,180 --> 00:54:20,250
No Vesna.
OHP fuck.

1027
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,330
Sorry, Miriam, it wasn't you it
was based on.

1028
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:27,690
Yeah.
So yeah, give trap credit next.

1029
00:54:27,700 --> 00:54:28,410
Time.
No, no, no.

1030
00:54:28,420 --> 00:54:34,420
I'm sure she got independently.
Right.

1031
00:54:34,430 --> 00:54:36,160
It's good.
Jason, what's next?

1032
00:54:36,570 --> 00:54:41,620
Line Town quick update, they
added another off take for

1033
00:54:41,630 --> 00:54:45,470
initial ramp up volume, so
100,000 tonnes to Beijing Sino

1034
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:49,580
mine over 10 months commencing
this September.

1035
00:54:49,630 --> 00:54:52,510
The pricing is a little bit
different to some of their

1036
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,820
existing offtake, so it's going
to be determined using a formula

1037
00:54:55,830 --> 00:55:00,120
referencing market prices for
battery grade lithium carbonate,

1038
00:55:00,130 --> 00:55:04,110
not spodumene index indexes.
But the sign this the pricing is

1039
00:55:04,120 --> 00:55:06,380
the same as all the other
pricing is that you never know

1040
00:55:06,390 --> 00:55:08,530
the pricing.
Yeah, pretty much, yeah.

1041
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:12,390
And in addition to the the
existing long-term off takes

1042
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:17,940
they've got with Tesla, LG and
forward, this one will be and

1043
00:55:17,950 --> 00:55:21,010
this provides them with a bit of
flexibility to sell spodumene

1044
00:55:21,020 --> 00:55:25,630
that may not match the product
quality specs that are in their

1045
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:31,130
existing Co off take agreements
and the expected delivery before

1046
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:33,070
30 September.
I think it's quite interesting

1047
00:55:33,140 --> 00:55:36,500
is you wouldn't do that if you
weren't pretty bullish on your

1048
00:55:36,510 --> 00:55:39,440
ramp up going bang on.
Hmm.

1049
00:55:39,670 --> 00:55:41,510
So that's that one there.
Right.

1050
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,230
I saw, I saw that one.
They're they're pretty they got

1051
00:55:44,240 --> 00:55:47,280
a lot of contracts in place in
the early years now.

1052
00:55:47,350 --> 00:55:50,780
And yeah, like, and I think I
raised this round, they came out

1053
00:55:50,790 --> 00:55:53,600
with the connote.
But like, what happens if they

1054
00:55:53,610 --> 00:55:56,720
can't meet all of the
contractors problem, right?

1055
00:55:56,730 --> 00:55:59,300
Yeah, Anyway.
Gotta buy it off someone off

1056
00:55:59,310 --> 00:56:01,180
something I don't.
Think it depends on the sponge

1057
00:56:01,190 --> 00:56:03,240
mean spotlight, it depends on
the terms.

1058
00:56:03,250 --> 00:56:05,920
Not not all of them are not all
tax structure that way and

1059
00:56:05,930 --> 00:56:09,480
oftentimes you off takers will
be flexible when you have

1060
00:56:09,490 --> 00:56:11,450
challenges.
But I'd love to know the details

1061
00:56:11,460 --> 00:56:12,770
of that one.
That's probably an easy answer

1062
00:56:12,780 --> 00:56:14,210
to it, but.
Yeah.

1063
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:18,220
And last one for the day, we had
make a medal.

1064
00:56:18,230 --> 00:56:23,100
So they picked up a 750 kilowatt
ball meal for their merchants

1065
00:56:23,110 --> 00:56:26,340
and Gold project.
It's claiming to expand their

1066
00:56:26,350 --> 00:56:31,900
processing capacity by 30% to
640,000 tonnes per annum,

1067
00:56:32,290 --> 00:56:35,380
cutting back some of their ball
mill CapEx compared to the DFS

1068
00:56:35,390 --> 00:56:38,540
and reducing the the lead time
as well by 33 weeks.

1069
00:56:38,550 --> 00:56:43,580
So it's expected to be on site
this September and by doing that

1070
00:56:43,590 --> 00:56:47,630
sort of allows some previously
excluded answers from their

1071
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:51,630
recent DFS that were excluded
due to mill capacity constraints

1072
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:53,970
to come in.
And also some ore stockpiles

1073
00:56:53,980 --> 00:56:57,070
that have built up in the, those
initial years to be taken

1074
00:56:57,080 --> 00:56:59,830
advantage of with the, the
expanded capacity.

1075
00:56:59,940 --> 00:57:04,800
And they're doing an updated DFS
off the back of this, uh, later

1076
00:57:04,810 --> 00:57:07,050
this year.
And I think that would dragging

1077
00:57:07,060 --> 00:57:10,650
out the sort of the processing
life based on the mill capacity

1078
00:57:10,660 --> 00:57:12,430
and the last one.
Yeah.

1079
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:14,890
Probably compressing it.
Now compressing it now, which is

1080
00:57:14,900 --> 00:57:19,740
much, much more sensible just to
get that cash flow more of it up

1081
00:57:19,750 --> 00:57:23,790
front.
Um, and the funding that with an

1082
00:57:23,800 --> 00:57:26,260
existing secure bridging loan
which they announced the other

1083
00:57:26,270 --> 00:57:29,980
month, which they also used to
buy some of the camp

1084
00:57:30,030 --> 00:57:34,810
infrastructure from De Grasa,
which is not too far away, which

1085
00:57:34,820 --> 00:57:39,810
was also at, at a fraction of
the defects CapEx estimate.

1086
00:57:39,820 --> 00:57:43,830
So I think a good proactive move
by maker to sort of minimise

1087
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:46,180
costs and, and lay times where
they can.

1088
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:52,210
We are expecting credit approval
for the the main project finance

1089
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:54,700
facility for Murchison this
month.

1090
00:57:55,550 --> 00:57:59,440
The DFS has 44 mil in pre
production CapEx.

1091
00:57:59,450 --> 00:58:03,360
They're about A50 mil market cap
company last I checked.

1092
00:58:03,510 --> 00:58:07,490
I expect the, I would expect the
project finance to be around

1093
00:58:07,500 --> 00:58:11,020
that 30 mil mark sort of give or
take 5 mil.

1094
00:58:11,170 --> 00:58:13,960
And then obviously they'll have
to solve for the balance, you

1095
00:58:13,970 --> 00:58:16,460
know equity or some other
alternative.

1096
00:58:16,470 --> 00:58:19,740
But you know, even if they get
sturdy million in project

1097
00:58:19,750 --> 00:58:24,090
finance, that's still 15 mil,
they'd have at least 15 mil

1098
00:58:25,180 --> 00:58:27,750
because you'll have a bit of
working capital leading into

1099
00:58:28,660 --> 00:58:33,120
going into production as well,
which you know, 15 mil equities

1100
00:58:33,130 --> 00:58:34,930
around 30% of the current market
cap.

1101
00:58:34,940 --> 00:58:37,550
So that's pretty chunky.
So I'm keen to see what sort of

1102
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:41,610
financing solution they come up
with saying as we haven't really

1103
00:58:41,620 --> 00:58:47,390
seen a single asset gold
developer come into production

1104
00:58:49,420 --> 00:58:51,470
super recently, well, there
hasn't been many.

1105
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:52,730
So I'm keen to see what they
come.

1106
00:58:52,740 --> 00:58:54,430
Up with daily Macquarie funding
it.

1107
00:58:54,490 --> 00:58:57,910
Yeah, Nah, Nah.
At least it's like it's

1108
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:00,510
brownfields, at least a lot of
existing infrastructure and

1109
00:59:00,520 --> 00:59:02,720
mine.
So it's not like you wouldn't

1110
00:59:02,730 --> 00:59:05,690
say it's easier, but it's like
it's a lot more established than

1111
00:59:05,740 --> 00:59:08,290
yes, slightly build.
No, we've seen how bloody hard

1112
00:59:08,300 --> 00:59:10,490
it is to build a brand new one
from scratch.

1113
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:14,350
It's a prick of a spot to be in
when you're on that small cap

1114
00:59:14,360 --> 00:59:17,030
end and you're you're trying to
sort financing and the whole

1115
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,330
market knows that you're there
might be an equity portion and

1116
00:59:19,340 --> 00:59:21,990
they don't wanna bloody couldn't
they just wanna wait for the.

1117
00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:24,330
Equity that.
The joys have been on the

1118
00:59:24,340 --> 00:59:26,660
smaller end of town.
Yeah, tough going.

1119
00:59:26,730 --> 00:59:29,100
No good on it.
I like I like this sort of shit.

1120
00:59:29,330 --> 00:59:32,360
I can get the dribs and the
dribs and drabs around the

1121
00:59:32,370 --> 00:59:34,800
joint.
Saving money they got got a lot

1122
00:59:34,810 --> 00:59:37,240
of skin in the game.
The boys that are running it.

1123
00:59:37,250 --> 00:59:38,920
So the treating it like a
business.

1124
00:59:38,930 --> 00:59:41,680
I like it.
Yeah, hopefully, hopefully,

1125
00:59:41,870 --> 00:59:44,540
hopefully it's it's a palatable
debt quantum that comes to

1126
00:59:44,550 --> 00:59:47,470
market because yeah, some of the
historic troubles is you put too

1127
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,500
much debt in it really high risk
to bring new developments on

1128
00:59:50,510 --> 00:59:53,660
mine and on online.
Sometimes that the structuring

1129
00:59:53,670 --> 00:59:56,790
of whatever project finance is
in there is to onerous for

1130
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:00,040
whatever hiccups come along and
equity has to buddy save the day

1131
01:00:00,050 --> 01:00:02,560
which is bad for shareholders.
So hopefully that doesn't happen

1132
01:00:02,570 --> 01:00:04,700
this time.
Yeah all these cars you'd rather

1133
01:00:04,710 --> 01:00:09,660
have 30 mil than 219 yeah, but
you'd rather have a lot more oz

1134
01:00:09,670 --> 01:00:12,950
too.
So true to pay off the 219 have

1135
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,190
good work JC fucker love avid
Yotti.

1136
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:17,320
You know, you're on it most
weeks now.

1137
01:00:17,330 --> 01:00:20,060
Yeah, just like.
Yeah, you got my weekly segment.

1138
01:00:20,070 --> 01:00:22,820
Below it.
Another day that we have too

1139
01:00:22,830 --> 01:00:24,130
much news I didn't even get to
talk about.

1140
01:00:24,140 --> 01:00:26,610
The Rumble in the Jungle is a
bidding war on Frasier Rotor.

1141
01:00:26,620 --> 01:00:28,440
Could you believe it?
Anyway, I can't believe that.

1142
01:00:28,450 --> 01:00:31,060
Unfortunately I just have to
save it for another.

1143
01:00:31,070 --> 01:00:34,730
Day oht mate, there better be no
news out tomorrow so traffic can

1144
01:00:34,740 --> 01:00:37,180
give you the bloody Sierra
Rutile the attention it

1145
01:00:37,190 --> 01:00:38,320
deserves.
Quarterly season?

1146
01:00:38,330 --> 01:00:41,550
I doubt that's the case mate.
I know Bellevue threw a spanner

1147
01:00:41,560 --> 01:00:44,650
in the works getting it out
early today or pump me up for a

1148
01:00:44,660 --> 01:00:47,070
Monday, right?
I thanks all the bloody

1149
01:00:47,080 --> 01:00:49,110
partners.
Axis morning technology.

1150
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:53,400
Remember the two week free trial
if you ring Sean and sigh money

1151
01:00:53,410 --> 01:00:59,820
of Mon Primark guide mineral
mining services MMS verify get

1152
01:00:59,830 --> 01:01:05,420
wet solutions to DSI underground
Silverstone CR insurance WI

1153
01:01:05,430 --> 01:01:10,000
waterboards kidro.
Sorry, yeah.

1154
01:01:10,070 --> 01:01:12,330
Else what else would you use
than Spark Chart?

1155
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:15,750
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

1156
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:17,990
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

1157
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:21,550
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1158
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:23,580
person.
Before making any investment

1159
01:01:23,590 --> 01:01:26,670
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1160
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:29,910
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1161
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:31,960
financial situation and needs.