Market Intel from a Commodity Trader & China Analyst

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Funny minus we're joined by two
extremely insightful gentlemen

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in the world of commodity China
macro research, metals, all

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things property related.
This this is this isn't going to

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be an interesting conversation
that we're having today JD we've

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got Bentley Advery who the
previous guest of the podcast, a

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commodity trader who who runs
mist trading out of Singapore

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Bentley's just a wealth of
insight.

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He also happened to work in a
previous life with our other

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guest, who is Rogan of Rhodium
Group.

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He's a, he's a China macro
property analyst and really,

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really keen to see the two of
them kind of talk about the, the

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things that are like, you know,
matter in our metals markets at

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the moment, because there's a,
there's a lot happening in the

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macro world.
And I feel like the commodity

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traders sort of have their
finger on the pulse, and

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commodity traders like Bentley
happen to rely a fair bit on the

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research that comes out of
people like Rogan.

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So I think the two of them are
kind of perfectly poised to

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unpack a lot of the things that
matter at the moment.

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Thanks so much for joining us on
Money Mine, guys.

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Yeah, happy to be here.
Yeah, cheers.

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Appreciate it.
It's the third time on third

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different continent coming from.
So I guess from here forward

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it's gonna be.
I'll keep that up.

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Somehow.
You never know what's going to

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be what time zone you're in
Bentley, or what what background

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you're going to have because you
dial in from all sorts of places

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at all sorts of times.
You're actually truly an enigma

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to me still and I, I cherish it.
I cherish the enigma that you

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are.
I think that's how commodity

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traders like, I don't know, roam
around.

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I guess we get the wrong
headlines.

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We get, we get the weird and the
wonderful.

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And I remember last time we
finished up with that, that long

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form conversation, Bentley, that
we had, I felt like I, I really

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knew nothing before and I
actually knew something coming

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out of it.
And you set the bar pretty high

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that time.
I can see in the show notes you

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if you put in some Chinese
characters.

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So I'm expecting to, to learn
quite a bit from you again.

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And I think China is the place
we should start this

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conversation maybe with, with
you, Rogan, given that is your

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area of expertise.
What what is the, the broader

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market and the, the consensus
sort of thinking of China at the

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moment that you think is
actually wrong?

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Well, I, I think we're in a
cyclical stabilization within a

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structural slow down.
And so the credit cycle in China

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has gone on for far too long.
The net interest margins are

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getting compressed, but there
are some green shoots in the

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economy.
There's certainly reasons to

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believe that some of these
subsidy programs can lift growth

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marginally and the property
market bottoming and potentially

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contributing to growth by the
end of the year.

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You know, some of the investment
Side Story may weaken, but

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ultimately China's going from
710% growth down to, you know, 2

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to 3% real.
But you know, there's tremendous

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headwinds in terms of
deflationary pressures and and

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other issues related to the
banking system, Local government

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financing revenues are
associated with value added

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taxes and corporate income
taxes.

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But ultimately there's, there's
good reason to believe that this

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year will be stronger than last
and and that we'll continue on

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this downward path of growth
towards something in the order

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of 2 to 3%.
But you know, on the real estate

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side it it, it's not as gloomy
as as it, as it looks.

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So you know, we had a long term
equilibrium of 500 to 750

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million square meters.
We're at 517,000,000 square

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meters in March 2025.
But you know, that's down from

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1.7 billion in March 2021, which
was the peak.

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So it's quite the contraction it
it's caused the economy to need

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to shift into new areas to find
incremental ways to invest, you

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know, domestic savings.
And that's led to a lot of

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discussions around things, you
know, our letter quoted as

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overcapacity or, or, you know,
what's considered running ahead

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of domestic demand.
And so there's areas where

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China's accelerating in
technology and, and, and

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stunning the world and, and
moments like DeepSeek.

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And then there's questions
surrounding, you know, how many

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more solar panels they need to
produce when global demand is,

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you know, at a certain level,
let's call it 600 gigawatts per

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year.
So you know, in, in, in terms of

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China, I'm I'm relatively
bullish in the short term

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despite the headwinds we'll see
from trade.

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Bentley.
Yeah.

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So Rogan's going to have all the
the hard numbers like that.

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I'm more of a on the ground and
physical actual, you know,

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transactions business right on.
We don't necessarily we use

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Rogan's research and that sort
of thing.

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But I guess from that
perspective, I don't have it

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memorized is what I'm saying?
No, from that perspective, it's

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interesting with the property
sector, every time I come back

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here, I always like to just have
a look around that construction.

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And really, I think the first
time I was here is 2018 and I

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can't don't have a great memory
of, you know, what it was like.

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Oh, this cranes, right.
They used to actually have, I

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guess collect data on how many
cranes are up in the major

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cities.
And I don't know if they have do

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that anymore.
But just from the naked eye last

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year, it was really interesting
because that was that would have

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been May of 2024 when I was
here.

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And you noticed, especially in
the major cities that it didn't

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look like anything really
changed.

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Everything was still being built
even during the monsoon season.

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They were still, you know,
building during construction and

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whatnot.
But you did start to see some

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areas of let's call it like
neighborhoods that weren't

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occupied.
The best way to put it, I know

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we were talking before we had
this conversation, all those

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like 30 story apartment
buildings behind you and your

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small town that that happens in
a lot of like clustered little

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areas.
Well, that's where where people

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live and there's a couple of
those little cluster areas.

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So as Rogan said, oh, it's a
little over exaggerated.

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I think that's a good way to way
to kind of state that

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qualitatively is you might have
a cluster of five or six

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buildings that they're there,
they're built, there's not

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really anybody in them.
And that would be what people I

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think really kind of consider as
like the ghost cities or

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whatever.
So there's still a little bit of

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that around, but coming back
this year, you know, they

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finished building what needed to
be built and then now it's

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really difficult for them to get
permits to build anything new

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unless they're a major by a
developer engineering

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construction company and they're
in more of the Tier 1, Tier 2

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cities.
So they're being pretty

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strategic with what they allow
it to be built.

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And I think I mentioned it last
year when I was on as well,

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building and property,
especially residential here.

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It's a different, the way it's
done.

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The the kind of the structure of
how you build, buy and own

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something is a lot different
than what many people are used

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to in different parts of the
world.

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It's called yeah, I don't know
how it works in Australia, but I

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have a pretty rough idea.
And here though, you when you

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buy a flat right and you buy an
empty concrete shell.

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So for developer to build that
building and just have a

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concrete shell like no
appliances, no wall lights,

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nothing, right.
It's actually pretty cheap and

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then it makes it so their break
even costs are a lot lower and

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then they're able to build more.
And that is what LED, it's part

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of the thing problems that led
to everything.

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But it's also, you know, it's
all cheaper for people to just

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buy.
So people own a lot of these

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units as well, even though they
haven't developed them out.

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So Brogan thinks the property
market's bottomed.

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I do have a couple flats if he's
looking to buy that I can sell

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for about half price.
Well, you can do a dokey on that

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actually, but.
I I so this is the, this is the

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real game too.
Is, is there's a, a, a challenge

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in, in the tier one cities for
upgrading.

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So you know, it the, the size of
the real estate built in a

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decade ago just isn't what
people are looking for in these

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tier one cities.
And so that upgrading demand,

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there's actually a shortage in
some markets.

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So, you know, it's a bifurcated
market where you have migration

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going to certain cities, town
going to certain cities,

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upgrading demand in those cities
for nicer flats.

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But then you have this overhang
from, you know, the fact that,

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you know, China has 300 plus
cities with over 1,000,000

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people.
And, you know, what are, why

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were we building so many
buildings in, in cities that

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didn't have, you know, the
respective jobs associated with

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them and, and what it, what do
they do with the, the

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overhanging there in the
developers?

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So the, the, the bad loans
associated with it And solving

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that problem is long from over.
But certainly there are green

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shoots and, and, and demand.
And whether it's, you know, old

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housing needs to get knocked
down to build new, better

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housing, or it's the size of the
apartments that people are

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looking at it.
There's reasons to think that in

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especially in these high income
cities that with stretched

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valuations that you can still
see new construction so it.

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Yeah, exactly what you were that
that's a better way kind of of

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what I was trying to
qualitatively say.

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So a lot of these the
neighborhoods where there's no

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one are like all half mostly
empty buildings.

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They're more in, in non well,
not in Tier 1 for sure, but even

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outside of like Tier 2, tier 3,
they're not once you even get

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into we, we, I think it's tier
Tier 2 three, right, that you

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don't have that problem there in
the middle of the city like

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Xinjiang, Guangzhou, They're
still building like that's that

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there's not that's the demand
there is just fine, right.

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I think that's what both of us
are kind of getting that.

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It was interesting to see
though, And I know speaking with

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Rogan a couple weeks months ago,
he, he brought up something

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about Shanghai and I noticed
that the end of last year,

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Shanghai prices went back above
Shenzhen prices for the first

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time in 10 years.
And I don't know if you're

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saying you had a Co workers or
colleagues that it just doesn't

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seem like the economy in
Shanghai is slow at all or it's

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hard to get a table I think is
what you said.

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Yeah, so it's very funny because
you know, I, I I'll analyze all

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of these cities retail sales and
they'll generate into to a book

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and you know, these tier one
cities have had terrible retail

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sales numbers.
But you know, how do you, how do

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you quantify some of the, the,
the services level demand

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associated with certain sectors?
And, and so retail sales

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continued to contract through
March.

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But you know, anecdotal stories,
I've heard people are having a

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hard time getting a table at the
nicest restaurants.

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So some of the bifurcated
market, you know, if I'm not

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buying a really expensive purse,
I might be buying a nice dinner

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and and moving to that services
lifestyle that's more, you know,

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reflective of what you see in in
Europe or the United States.

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But yeah, I mean, not to get too
far into the, to the, to the

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consumer, but yeah, it, it is a,
a strange market that can be cut

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and, and in a million different
ways to, to, to pull things out.

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But it'll all, all to say that
there, there's reason to believe

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that the, the real estate market
is bottom.

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It doesn't necessarily mean that
it will ever go back to what it

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was.
It certainly won't.

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But you know, a cyclical upturn
from here isn't out of the

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question.
Rogan if we if we try to hide

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into the Aussie market, what
what's your outlook for steel

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and then gone one step further
for for iron ore.

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Yeah.
So I mean, I the, the bottom up

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estimates I've done for real
estate related demand

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destruction are, are for for
copper.

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But on the the iron ore side, I
find a very compelling story

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that you know, the upper bound
is certainly going to be $100

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and and the lower bound could be
as low as 60.

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The reasons being is, is that
when China pivoted away from the

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00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:12,120
real estate sector, there was a
ton of money that went into a

224
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,680
varying number of industrial
industries.

225
00:12:15,680 --> 00:12:19,600
You know, whether it's ethylene
production, copper smelting,

226
00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:25,560
shipbuilding, the EV solar
modules, battery manufacturing

227
00:12:25,560 --> 00:12:29,720
plants, all of the, you know,
cathode, anode material

228
00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,040
manufacturing it, it was
tremendous.

229
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:36,160
And, and in many ways it's led
to China leading the world and,

230
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,560
and catching the rest of the
world on their back foot as they

231
00:12:38,560 --> 00:12:41,720
look at these new emerging
industries that are extremely

232
00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:45,360
power intensive.
And so in that effort to pivot

233
00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,160
away from real estate and
redirect investment into other

234
00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:52,120
areas, they created additional
steel demand.

235
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,320
But how many more factories do
you need to build?

236
00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,240
How much more can you know of
the global shipbuilding quotas

237
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,400
can you get when you're already
at 60%?

238
00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,080
So if 60% of new ships are
Chinese, you know, it's, you

239
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,880
know, probably a couple million
tons there.

240
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:11,000
If you're talking about the
exports of 7 million electric

241
00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,160
vehicles, you know, it's a
couple million tons there.

242
00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,080
And you know, add in the solar
and the equipment and, and, and

243
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:21,040
when it's a couple million tons.
But ultimately, you know, the

244
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:25,040
embedded steel plus the steel
product exports cannot continue

245
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,960
to grow without getting
tremendous reactions from, you

246
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:31,400
know, great trading partners for
China.

247
00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,120
And so steel products falling
into Vietnam and getting

248
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,640
tariffed or, you know, import
bands.

249
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,360
You know, it's South Korea, it's
it's South Africa, it's Brazil,

250
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,880
it's it's, you know, Mexico and
Chile.

251
00:13:45,560 --> 00:13:49,880
These are countries that aren't
necessarily aligned with the US

252
00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,760
on their strategic initiatives,
but they're countries that have

253
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,800
domestic capacity that's now
dealing with with Chinese

254
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:01,640
exports that are extremely
competitively priced.

255
00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,640
And, and, and so it's creating
consternation.

256
00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,520
And so ultimately what it comes
back to is does the Chinese

257
00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,440
government choose to lower
domestic production?

258
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:12,960
And there's already evidence
that they're going to move to do

259
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,040
so.
And so the headwind there is, is

260
00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:20,360
that, you know, steel production
in China, steel demand in China

261
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,480
is probably peaked.
And and so it's hard to see how

262
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:29,280
the capacity is is brought down,
what photos are issued at the

263
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:33,360
provincial and local government
level, how they respond to those

264
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,840
in terms of, you know, all we're
replacing old capacity with new,

265
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,640
more carbon efficient capacity.
But have you truly, you know,

266
00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:45,960
ramped down that other factory?
But yes, there there's certainly

267
00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:50,280
big steel manufacturers that are
cutting the hours of, of certain

268
00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:55,480
employees and and reducing
capacity to produce rod relative

269
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,640
to flat products.
And flat products can be used

270
00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:01,840
for cars and and ships and the
rods are generally looked at in

271
00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:03,800
infrastructure and and real
estate.

272
00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:07,920
So that pivot has been on
ongoing over 100 million metric

273
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,560
tons and and shift over the last
couple of years.

274
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:15,080
But ultimately can they sustain
the build out of more industrial

275
00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:18,960
capacity without contributing to
deflationary pressures, which

276
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,600
puts the economy in a much more
difficult position.

277
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,960
A deflationary debt spiral
certainly is something China

278
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:30,240
doesn't want.
That $60.00 number you mentioned

279
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,440
for, for iron ore that that's
quite alarming, I think to A, to

280
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,720
a lot of people sitting here in,
in, in WA to, to dive into that

281
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,400
part of your response there.
You mentioned before we started

282
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:47,280
chatting the impact of Guinea
and SIM Andu.

283
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:49,160
Obviously, what do you make of
that?

284
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,240
And you know, given your, your
position in, you know, sitting

285
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,200
there in Washington, what, what
is the, the broader kind of

286
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:59,040
consensus view of, of the
evolving landscape of the iron

287
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:04,960
ore market?
Well, you know, in, in the US,

288
00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,240
it's whether or not, you know,
we should be more protectionist

289
00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,400
or not.
I don't think they're

290
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,600
necessarily looking upstream to
where the iron ore is mined or,

291
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,760
or the price there where it's
at.

292
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:20,320
I, I do and they're really
concerned about these other

293
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:21,960
critical minerals.
But we come back to that.

294
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:27,440
I think that, you know, the, the
West African region, especially

295
00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,040
Guinea is a very interesting
story because of the bauxite

296
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,000
production there and where it
goes in terms of China's

297
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:39,840
aluminum supply chain.
The build out of this mine and

298
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:43,520
you know, the multiple sites,
the railway, the, the quality of

299
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:48,040
the ore, the cost of mining in a
place that, you know, I lived in

300
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,360
eastern Sierra Leone for a
while.

301
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,440
Once you're out into the Bush,
there are fewer, fewer rules.

302
00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,200
And so, you know, the regulatory
burdens and the like certainly

303
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,160
are lower.
You know, there's political

304
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,360
risks associated with the West
African region.

305
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:07,880
But, you know, in terms of being
competitive at the global scale,

306
00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:14,240
China was looking for a way to
to diversify supply chains away

307
00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:17,160
from Brazil and Australia.
And this, this project certainly

308
00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:20,640
stands out as one that, you
know, increases supply when

309
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:25,839
demand is about to define.
Bentley I I have to imagine as

310
00:17:25,839 --> 00:17:28,680
well you've, you've done a bit
of digging on, on bulks.

311
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,360
I don't know.
We spoke about the, the alley

312
00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:33,520
sort of chain and just in the,
in the past couple weeks,

313
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,640
there's been some, some pretty
noteworthy events.

314
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:38,920
How close have you been sort of
tapped into it lately?

315
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,680
Past couple weeks, not as much,
I think late last year, yeah, we

316
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:49,440
discussed it.
I know I had whatever the 2025

317
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,880
predictions, Illumina as my, oh,
that's what they call that and

318
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,040
zinc I think.
So I, I know what was going on

319
00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:00,080
there for, for the most part,
there's a lot of this mistiming

320
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:05,840
between new capacity of alumina
coming online versus what's

321
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,840
going on in bauxite and
aluminium demand.

322
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,560
So that was what really went on
there.

323
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,560
And once once the new production
came online, Indonesia, India

324
00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,560
and China as well for alumina,
you saw the prices come off

325
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,120
quite a bit.
Box site haven't followed the

326
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,840
markets too closely in the past
few weeks, so I can't comment

327
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,840
too much on that.
It's Jack's mine license was

328
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,880
revoked by I mean, it's been
offline for, for, OK, I think I

329
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,480
think like 9:00-ish months.
But the Ghanaian government has

330
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,360
just revoked their mining
license from the alleged refusal

331
00:18:35,360 --> 00:18:40,400
to build a country.
Oh, so I am a little familiar

332
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:44,040
with that.
There is, I won't say here,

333
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,600
there's some, I know someone
down there that's actually

334
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,560
trying to get a project started
and they were required to do

335
00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,520
some downstream like alumina
eventually at some point.

336
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,440
I don't know if they need to do
it before I can start exporting

337
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,200
their box site.
But he mentioned that I was

338
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:58,800
going to be a thing in Guinea
and they were going to do that.

339
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:02,400
So I don't think it's
necessarily a huge shock to

340
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:03,840
people in that part of the
industry.

341
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,200
But maybe, maybe you guys got to
bring up aluminium Al to get the

342
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,080
full scoop on that one?
Well, it was it's funny you

343
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,640
mentioned that we're we're dead
keen to, to go to go to China

344
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,520
with aluminium L1 day.
I reckon that you should join us

345
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,480
on that trip.
Bentley as a, as a, you know, as

346
00:19:20,360 --> 00:19:23,600
a an almost amazing China local
these days.

347
00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:29,000
His, his story about I think it
was from Jamalco, they had the,

348
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:34,120
the box site and they first
shipment of that from I guess

349
00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:37,000
the Caribbean up to I think
Qingdao or wherever it was that

350
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,080
they the both, both part and the
moisture content, which is not

351
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:42,320
right.
Like 18% is pretty high.

352
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,440
They thought that'd be fine.
And then it's just huge clouds

353
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,080
of, you know, the red bauxite
dust because.

354
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,240
So they did it at that time.
That was the best.

355
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:55,760
Exactly.
Like that's China.

356
00:19:55,760 --> 00:20:01,120
Yeah, for sure.
Potential business risks for a

357
00:20:01,120 --> 00:20:06,040
potential business interruption.
Business interruptions are not

358
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,920
good.
They are not good at all.

359
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,280
Thank God there is a way to
negate business interruption

360
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,400
risk.
It sounds like you're you're a

361
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,680
bit risk averse, JD, but it's
important to mitigate this with

362
00:20:19,120 --> 00:20:21,400
insurance.
In fact, CRE Insurance are the

363
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,000
people that can help you
mitigate business interruption

364
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,880
with the best the best insurance
broking capabilities I've ever

365
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,400
seen that ever exist.
When it comes to ensuring mining

366
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,480
projects or other construction
engineering projects, you want

367
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,800
to work with specialized and
experienced advisors and God

368
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:36,760
knows how many details could
possibly slip through the

369
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,440
cracks.
This is not something you can

370
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,760
risk when it comes to the health
of your operation, JD.

371
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,760
Anything other than perfectly
tailored we'll leave a gaping

372
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,040
hole and leave you exposed.
We've seen it time and time

373
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,240
again mate.
A generic policy when it comes

374
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,240
to insurance is no good.
From mobile plants to contract

375
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,280
works, liability to business
interruptions, CRE have got you

376
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:00,800
sorted.
Insure it right, Insure it the

377
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,280
CRE way are.
You sitting on the fence, give

378
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:05,960
him a call.
Not after this, give him a call.

379
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:09,360
Get your current policy looked
at because you know what mate,

380
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,440
it is a free review of your
policy.

381
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:13,040
There is that's it's it's on a
platter.

382
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,280
Can all but guarantee you'll be
thankful that you did all but.

383
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:17,480
Guaranteed.
Guaranteed.

384
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:18,200
Actually.
Guaranteed.

385
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:19,720
Yeah, I'll, I'll insure that
risk for you.

386
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,000
There we go, call CRE Insurance.
Thank you CRE.

387
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,520
Yeah.
Anyway, yeah, I'm that's not

388
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:33,400
fully in tuned with the most the
gap story, but yeah, familiar

389
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,680
with what's happening.
Yeah, you spend a lot.

390
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,880
I think, oh, I was, I was just
going to say that, you know,

391
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,240
the, the story I keep hearing
from a lot of different parts of

392
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,160
the industry is, is that
everybody wants to localize and,

393
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,760
and every government wants, you
know, Africa wants to add value,

394
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,520
add on to things.
And, and, you know, every

395
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,560
industrialized country wants to
secure their supply chain.

396
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,160
And so it, it, it just seems to
me that we're going to have a

397
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:03,280
whole bunch of ability to, to
process this, the major metals,

398
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:07,240
but you know, not necessarily
demand at the end or the supply

399
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,600
of the raw materials.
I don't see it's the Indonesia

400
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,600
model.
So they've seen a success right

401
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,760
from Indonesia and for certain
aspects it's taken Indonesia a

402
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,560
lot longer than maybe people
think about.

403
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,200
It's been well gotten, what, 20
years ish of them trying to do

404
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,720
what they've been doing in terms
of bringing the next stage, the

405
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,640
value add online in their, in
their country.

406
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,360
And it's, it's worked for things
like like nickel and tin, for

407
00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:36,240
example, you can't export tin
concentrate from Indonesia.

408
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,680
It has to be tin ingots.
I don't know about there's

409
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:47,520
other, let's say red tape parts
of of it that gets bottled up

410
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,360
every once in a while as an
annually.

411
00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:52,720
But you know, it's, I think that
that's the model that other

412
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:53,960
countries are trying to go
after.

413
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,240
And it's, it's interesting when
you talk about steel because

414
00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:00,600
steel is such a simple one that
everyone's kind of had it for a

415
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,000
while.
And that that's the one where

416
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:09,040
it's just, I don't think you can
slap the same sort of mindset on

417
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,920
all of these, on all these
metals because yeah, steel, it

418
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,480
isn't that expensive to produce
steel and iron ore is fairly

419
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,600
abundant as long as you have
ports or have it in your country

420
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,720
and feels a very domestic use in
construction, right?

421
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:27,040
So you got India where they're
going to what basically 3X their

422
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:28,680
steel demand over the next
decade.

423
00:23:31,120 --> 00:23:33,520
But it, as you guys, you know,
were talking about it kind of

424
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,800
gets pulled from other places
and then like they're not going

425
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,680
to import Chinese steel.
In fact, they're doing quite the

426
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,120
opposite, but they still need
the iron ore.

427
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,760
A lot of iron ore in India is
not, especially with they

428
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,680
export, they don't really
export, but they export low

429
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:48,480
grade stuff.
I think.

430
00:23:49,360 --> 00:23:52,440
So the, the whole dynamic of
that, I think too, when Rogan's

431
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:55,640
getting that is like, all right,
you're going to have these more

432
00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,200
domestic supply chains, not
necessarily the most efficient

433
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:02,840
way of doing it, but for, for
let's call it easier to produce

434
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:08,800
commodities such as steel.
It, it becomes you kind of have

435
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,560
to accept that at some point,
you know, India will have lower

436
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:12,920
capacity steel.
Are you going to start

437
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,320
exporting, dumping the market?
Sure.

438
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,920
You'll have the same story over
and over again.

439
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,840
Indonesian example is a really
interesting one because capital

440
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:26,160
certainly came into the country
in response to their their their

441
00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:29,240
policy.
There are a lot of tax holidays

442
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,280
provided for, for investment in,
in these industrial parks like

443
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,360
Morrowali Industrial Park.
And then like, like relatively

444
00:24:35,360 --> 00:24:39,240
recently there's been a proposed
regime change from the royalty

445
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,680
front royalties kind of
unfinished product going from

446
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,320
sort of 10:00-ish percent to up
to 19% depending on, on nickel

447
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,240
price.
Surely that just kills that

448
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,600
kills new investment and in and
when other countries try and

449
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:57,400
roll out similar agendas of of
of downstreaming like doesn't

450
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,840
capital think twice before
actually adhering?

451
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:01,960
Or do we need the need the
middle so much from that

452
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,240
specific country that there's no
choice in some instances?

453
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,880
I think it just depends on who's
willing to take the risk.

454
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:18,360
That's part of it, right?
So we'll see what happens with

455
00:25:18,360 --> 00:25:20,720
the Indonesia going forward.
Is it going to be an interesting

456
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:21,640
case study?
How about that?

457
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:25,320
Because there's a difference
between doing something like

458
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,440
that kind of tweak versus every
once in a while just be like,

459
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,400
now we're going to have, you
know, 100% tariffs or you're not

460
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,200
allowed to export this, you're
not allowed to do that.

461
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,440
I think they've gained enough
goodwill from the Fujianese or

462
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,360
Chinese.
It's a lot of Fujianese.

463
00:25:39,360 --> 00:25:43,360
They're very entrepreneurial
part of China.

464
00:25:43,360 --> 00:25:50,880
And it's like 1 and a half, 2%
of Indonesians are what would be

465
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,160
Fuji's hockey and Hokian
culture.

466
00:25:54,360 --> 00:25:55,560
And they make up.
What'd you get?

467
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,120
I think you guys said it was
like something like 50% or 30%

468
00:25:58,120 --> 00:26:00,000
of GDP or output.
It's kind of nuts.

469
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:04,520
But so I I wouldn't expect,
yeah, I wouldn't expect them to

470
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,840
stop coming just for that.
But at some point I think it

471
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:12,600
would.
It will erode it Is it where's

472
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:13,880
the line?
Right where you raise it a

473
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,880
couple percent, No one's going
to really care.

474
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,480
I mean, they care, but it won't
won't halt slows.

475
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,200
You start going back and forth
with major changes and a lot of

476
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,520
uncertainty.
And I think that's that's even,

477
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,880
that's even worse.
Can they bring that royalty back

478
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:30,280
down?
I, I don't we'll see what the

479
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,240
discussions come out of that.
But I, I think a lot of times

480
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:38,160
it's more of if it's slow and
steady, that's a little better.

481
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,120
If it's kind of all over the
place, then yeah, that, that

482
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,600
crushes uncertainty.
But time, time will tell.

483
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,800
And I know it's a different,
different government, somewhat

484
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,200
similar party, I believe than it
than it's been for the past,

485
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,600
what, decade plus, I don't
remember how much, how long was

486
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:57,680
Jack gonna be there if I can't
remember.

487
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,440
But yeah, it it'll be
interesting to watch that.

488
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,680
Yeah, I think a lot of, I mean
the, the these major minors, you

489
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,760
know, making 30 year
investments, if you're 15 years

490
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,160
in and and they come to you and
everything's been hunky Dory for

491
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,480
the last 15 years.
And they say, Hey, we want you

492
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,640
to move upstream and, and say,
well, what if we don't and

493
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,600
think, well, then you can't
export your concentrate.

494
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,440
You're in a, you're in a
challenging position, starting

495
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,320
position in terms of the
negotiation.

496
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:31,200
So I you know, it certainly the
level of uncertainty associated

497
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,240
with changing government
policies.

498
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,400
It is something that each
company has to take into

499
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:40,440
account.
But you're in a challenging

500
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:45,040
position on the mind is in a
country and you you don't have

501
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,480
political power over the
government in that regard.

502
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,360
So it, it can be challenging.
And I think, you know, I think

503
00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:53,720
Freeport's dealing with a
similar issue in Indonesia now.

504
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:58,160
Yeah, yeah, great mind.
One of I think it was one of one

505
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,640
of my favorite minds to I guess
dig into the engineering of it.

506
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:06,200
But yeah, we'll talk about, you
know that yeah, there's a lot of

507
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,000
uncertainty with that, but they
were able to kind of work

508
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,240
something out, I guess getting
getting concentrated out because

509
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,760
it's like, OK, well the smelter
isn't ready to come online so.

510
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,920
All right, well then let's allow
another 200,000 tons of

511
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,440
concentrate shipments, which has
helped balance the markets.

512
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,480
I think.
I think the government has

513
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:27,200
earned some goodwill in
Indonesia for yeah, it's a pain

514
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,520
in the ass, but they showing
they've been a little bit

515
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,560
reasonable with stuff like that.
I don't know, reasonable mean

516
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:38,400
not the right word.
So flexible.

517
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,400
I mean, like, OK, well we're
going to ban it now.

518
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,560
And and that was then, you know,
it still takes an extra couple

519
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,440
of years.
So I think at this point, if

520
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:51,120
you're going into news and wolf
into Indonesia, you know what

521
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:58,600
you're getting into.
But I think other countries need

522
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,440
and governments, it'll you know,
you can't go.

523
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,080
I shouldn't say you can't.
I don't want to offend people

524
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,400
here, but you get you struggle
when you go full Ghana, right?

525
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:15,120
That's a different problem like.
You're going to say you can't go

526
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:19,120
full guy?
Yeah, I mean, that's that's a

527
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,160
whole mess.
It's a real big mess.

528
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,200
You guys are closer to that than
I am.

529
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,640
But we've had people, we had
people poke us when stuff was

530
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,520
going on there and like, we need
to get you're interested in X

531
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:33,120
amount of gold.
I'm like, I'm not a gold trader,

532
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,240
but we're trying to get stuff
out quick.

533
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,800
Rogan, let's let's go back to,
to China.

534
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:45,840
The, the, the evolution of the,
the new energy market to kind of

535
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,720
clump it all together has been
astronomical.

536
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,360
It's been, it's been crazy to,
to view from the, the outside.

537
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,320
What, what's your sort of take
been on that?

538
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,920
And maybe you can sort of hone
in on on EVs kind of

539
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,760
specifically and the the
emergence of hybrids in there

540
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,360
too.
Sure.

541
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:09,000
I'm I'm happy to to to color
this end to end.

542
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,640
Electrification is quite
possibly one of the the best

543
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,400
stories coming out of China and
the hardest to replicate

544
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,480
internationally.
And so, you know, there's still

545
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,280
consternation about what
happened in Spain and Portugal

546
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,680
over the last several weeks.
But they're, they're people who

547
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,880
are saying that this is
associated with a higher degree

548
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:34,160
of renewable energy as a part of
the energy mix and the issues

549
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,240
related to that.
In China over the last 12

550
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,520
months, the the growth in energy
demand has come from wind,

551
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,720
solar, hydro, which had a
drought in the previous period.

552
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,640
So year on year it looks
positive.

553
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,800
And then an expansion of a
nuclear, three months of

554
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:54,480
contractions in, in coal.
And so going into the

555
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,720
second-half of the year, there's
a changing dynamic on the energy

556
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,720
supply side.
So the feed in tariffs

557
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:03,440
associated with the renewables
will be removed, which means

558
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,400
that renewables will have to
compete at market prices, you

559
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,600
know, in, in spot markets for,
for demand.

560
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,760
What does that mean?
If everybody's producing solar

561
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,720
energy at the exact same time,
the spot market goes to 0, then

562
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,720
you have this, you know, duct
curve that you, you see in the,

563
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:24,200
in the western world.
And as a result, energy prices

564
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:28,200
fall to zero and, and there's
essentially no money to be made

565
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,680
in installing the the next
installation of solar.

566
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,480
So future solar installations in
the second-half of the year and,

567
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,680
and going forward will likely
decline.

568
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,080
What does that mean for
something like batteries In the

569
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:46,280
short term?
It means that there's a new Ave.

570
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,640
for storing energy and competing
in spot markets at different

571
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,200
times.
There's incentives associated

572
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,280
with installing batteries on
your end of the grid, you know,

573
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,880
at your factory and storing the
energy for later use of cheap

574
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:02,040
prices.
So that end of end of the

575
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,400
spectrum is is going to change
dramatically coming into the

576
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,920
second-half of the year.
And that has material impacts on

577
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:14,880
on polysilicon, copper,
aluminum, and we can, you know,

578
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,680
battery relate related
materials, lithium in

579
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,000
particular.
But yeah, on the other side, you

580
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,920
have this dramatic shift towards
electrification.

581
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,360
So, you know, when I choose to
charge my car, when I choose to

582
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,040
track, you know, charge my
truck.

583
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:35,600
And I'm creating new demands
that are also intermittent that

584
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:40,920
are also hard to calculate and
also can incentivize energy

585
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:44,480
storage localization because,
you know, you can up the energy

586
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,240
coming out of the battery
relative to what's going into

587
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,160
it.
And so end to end, you need a

588
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,560
stronger grid.
And what we've seen in China

589
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:57,720
over the last 12 to 18 months,
this is that what was a cycle of

590
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:01,680
growth and grid investment has
broken out to, to a new level.

591
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:04,680
And it, it's been extraordinary
to see.

592
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,880
And, and it's hard to see
anywhere in the world

593
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,880
replicating what China's done
there in the last, you know,

594
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,320
year or so.
There's been a, a greater pickup

595
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,400
of plug in hybrids and hybrid
electric vehicles relative to

596
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,000
BEVS.
But you know, the, a lot of the

597
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:25,360
demand in China has been driven
at first by subsidies and, and

598
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,880
consumer incentives.
And now it's, it's to price

599
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,880
competitiveness.
A lot of these vehicles, the

600
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,120
convenience of, of, you know,
being able to charge in some of

601
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:38,680
these two one cities.
And, you know, China's ability

602
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:42,000
to, to build out the grid and an
accelerated rate, you know, the

603
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:46,240
number of charging piles, you
know, private level, we're,

604
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:48,920
we're talking over 8 million
public level, over 3 million,

605
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:54,120
you know, talk total charging
kilowatt hours was 9.1 billion

606
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:58,040
in September of 2024.
This is an extremely, you know,

607
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:03,080
hard thing to do from a, from a
grid standpoint, from an energy

608
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:06,640
production standpoint.
And so China, you know, has

609
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,639
moved in this direction.
You know, a lot of the energy

610
00:34:09,639 --> 00:34:11,760
that they're using to charge
these vehicles would, you know,

611
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,920
some would say is coming from
coal and, and the like, and, and

612
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,080
all of these supply chains are
extremely energy intensive, you

613
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,840
know, synthetic graphite
production and all the smelting

614
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,000
of metals and, and, and, and the
like.

615
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:29,520
But yes, I, I'm, I'm, I don't
want to sound too, too bullish

616
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,560
on, on Chinese pivots towards
renewables.

617
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,560
I, I continue to think in the
second-half of the year, we're

618
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:39,639
going to see a return of coal as
an, as a major comeback.

619
00:34:39,639 --> 00:34:43,480
But you know, what they've
accomplished is, is stunning to

620
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,400
me.
And I and I, it's been wonderful

621
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,520
to have the ability to watch it
over the last four years.

622
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,719
Bentley, what's, what's your
sort of take of the implications

623
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,840
of this on the, on the metals
that you you kind of trade and

624
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,400
maybe touching on some of those
there's more nation and quirky

625
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:06,520
metals.
Yeah, I think the one thing that

626
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,240
that I did definitely took off
faster than a lot of people were

627
00:35:11,240 --> 00:35:12,760
expecting is to plug in hybrid
stuff.

628
00:35:13,720 --> 00:35:17,480
But you still can plug in your
car and charge it and really

629
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,960
depends on guess how much you
care.

630
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,480
Some people just plug it in
whenever, even though you can

631
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,520
just put petrol in it too, right
where, you know, petrol,

632
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,200
probably gasoline prices here
are pretty cheap actually.

633
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,960
Well, guess these days they're
kind of getting cheaper

634
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,400
everywhere, right?
It's sub 60 crude, but they're

635
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:43,280
the that that expansion, I think
over pure EVs has been very

636
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:44,680
interesting.
And it's probably somewhat

637
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:46,800
regionalized as well.
Like around here, there's a lot

638
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:48,800
of plug in hybrids.
People drive a little bit more,

639
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,960
a little bit further than you
would maybe in other cities.

640
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:53,520
You still have like the Chi.
I don't know.

641
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,520
I was at breakfast this morning.
You had the Hong Kong mini

642
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,880
Pokémon style with Pikachu, you
know, happy, happy girl at the

643
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,240
steering wheel drive by.
And I was like, that's funny,

644
00:36:02,240 --> 00:36:05,240
but it was also, you know,
that's the equivalent of what

645
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,480
something around the lines of
maybe 7000 Aussies.

646
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,120
So it's a pretty cheap
alternative.

647
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:16,880
And these are, it's also a
society that 2025 years ago, no

648
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,080
one had cars, very few people
had cars.

649
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:25,640
So what they just sort of
decided to do was, OK, we can't

650
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,880
really compete with, I don't
know, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes,

651
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:30,920
You see a lot of German cars
here.

652
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:35,160
Can't we compete with them?
So they did JVS and they also

653
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,400
then chose, OK, well, why don't
we do our own style?

654
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:38,640
They have a little bit different
tastes, right?

655
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,000
It's a lot of luxury and tech.
They're like in cars.

656
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:45,440
And they then they went the EV
route, You know what, 1213 years

657
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,280
ago when they really made that
decision to put money into it,

658
00:36:47,720 --> 00:36:50,240
subsidized it, and that just
took off.

659
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:54,000
Using JVS to to enter a market
and forge a competitive

660
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,160
advantage.
JD This strategy sounds all too

661
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,800
familiar, and you know who I'm
talking about.

662
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:03,680
MMS Mineral mining services.
Mate, get MMS to your site right

663
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:04,960
now.
If you want to see what a

664
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:08,440
turnkey mining solution looks
like, call MMS.

665
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,800
They'll tailor the job to a tee
for you, mate.

666
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:12,440
They'll take the stress off your
hands.

667
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:13,760
They'll take the risk off your
hands.

668
00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:17,000
MMS is the contractor you call
if you want to sleep at night.

669
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,480
How good is this mate?
They've got 17,000 square meter

670
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:22,000
operations hub to keep the fleet
humming.

671
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,400
A fleet of over 100 heavy
vehicles and machinery and

672
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,360
specialized bits of kit.
They can rapidly mobilize.

673
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,400
Just say the word that mobilize
so fast mate.

674
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,400
And they've got the technical
team to do the hard yards.

675
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,520
Gold is still flying over $5000
an ounce if you can believe it,

676
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:38,080
which means operations can make
money right now.

677
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:39,640
They.
Can I've moved it $1000?

678
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,000
To a mil and you can make money
off of it it's.

679
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,240
All of all.
The ability to be able to do

680
00:37:44,240 --> 00:37:48,040
that is like never before an MMS
other team to help you do it.

681
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,720
You know why mate?
Because they have got the.

682
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:54,080
Just get it done.
Attitude they do.

683
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:57,360
If you have a project in the too
hard basket, you don't have the

684
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,240
bandwidth.
It's just lying on the side

685
00:37:59,240 --> 00:38:02,000
there.
Go search the gold price, look

686
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,880
it up.
Realize what you can do.

687
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,560
This is a win win opportunity.
Work with them, they'll work

688
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:12,120
with you to unlock the upside.
Just call MMS, the trusted

689
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,360
mining contracting partner.
No, it's, it's all their own

690
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,800
brands, right?
They don't see as many new

691
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:21,440
vehicles that aren't Chinese.
But what that's had on the

692
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:25,720
lithium industry is you still
see demand, like demand's been

693
00:38:25,720 --> 00:38:26,960
fine.
It's more of a supply side

694
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:28,800
situation I think in lithium at
the moment.

695
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,440
The battery energy storage stuff
was an interesting thing that

696
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,040
that Rogan hit on there where
there was the policies that went

697
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,760
in place where you no longer
have to have energy storage

698
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:43,160
systems with your, you know,
your solar, I guess whatever

699
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,120
solar like grid, the solar farm
there we go.

700
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,360
But realistically you wouldn't
do that, as Rugen pointed out,

701
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:54,080
right, because you it wouldn't
be economic without the battery

702
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,520
storage.
And that's made-up for a lot of

703
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:04,840
the deficiencies in demand from
North America and Europe for EVs

704
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:07,480
and and lithium from that
standpoint.

705
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:09,360
But the supply size has been
massive.

706
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:16,320
I mean you had South American
brine a lot more of that that's

707
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,360
decent amount of that coming
online and it's starting to come

708
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,640
more into China.
I think Argentina exports are

709
00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:24,880
about double what they were a
year ago and that's you know,

710
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:28,280
still has to be re refined.
So just I don't know how much

711
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:34,440
people are familiar with that,
that it gets re refined into a

712
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,520
battery grade material in China.
So it still ends up here for the

713
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,560
most part.
I can go to Korea as well the

714
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:46,160
likes, but that has essentially
flooded the market.

715
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:50,200
And I was talking to actually
talked to YJ a little bit last

716
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,920
night and he mentioned that a
lot of the refiners are in a

717
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,920
position where they don't want
to lose qualification with the

718
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,480
downstream.
So they're not turning offline

719
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:04,120
and that's why you see the
supply response you have.

720
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,760
We had a problem, not a problem
but.

721
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,760
Situation last year where, you
know, spodumene was still in

722
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:15,120
high demand despite prices
coming down and you know what

723
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:16,960
you'd think of being
oversupplied, like why is there

724
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:21,360
such a demand for spod?
But that a lot of that is just

725
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,320
how the refiners are built and
how they can make money.

726
00:40:25,240 --> 00:40:30,160
And late last year when some
production came offline, it was,

727
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:31,800
you know, it caused a small
spike in the market.

728
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,400
What people did is they were
able to go and hedge forward.

729
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,280
So they pre sold May and July,
right.

730
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,920
Prices in the spot markets are
mostly linked to futures prices

731
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,680
here in China.
It's just a formula.

732
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:48,480
So they were they really do that
and you've kind of started to

733
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:52,720
see the impacts of that now
where that helps keep spot.

734
00:40:52,720 --> 00:40:55,320
You mean prices up in the 8
hundreds where it was like I

735
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,520
wouldn't go out and buy a spot
cargo or we would never what we

736
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,320
never would.
We're going to win any of those

737
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,960
SQM auctions when people were
bidding 850 and I'm sitting

738
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:05,280
there like you can't make money
on that.

739
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,040
The only way you made money on
it is you pre sold at, you know,

740
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:15,160
8590 thousand R&B per ton, which
you know, eleven $12,000 a ton.

741
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:19,600
So that started to actually
finally wear off and that's why

742
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,080
you're seeing Hard Rock prices
come down.

743
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,760
You know, Woolamina material, we
think it's been coming to the

744
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:31,960
market as well.
Longer term demand wise, it's

745
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,920
going to even itself out where
you have these, you know, pre

746
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,880
pockets of demand that are
brought forward that make up

747
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:45,040
for, you know, levels of weaker,
weaker areas, right, where Rogan

748
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,520
brings up the battery energy
storage, I'll hit on that.

749
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:53,280
So late last year, you saw a lot
of these material flowing into

750
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,760
North America knowing that
there's going to be tariffs and

751
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,560
never going to be profitable
again.

752
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:01,840
So North America has battery
energy storage systems to be

753
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,520
built out and have the material
sitting there, but that's not

754
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:08,920
going to come again.
So this ebb and flow and we're

755
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,160
going through it right now where
that that demands a little soft.

756
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,400
And same with the, you know, EV
salt, Tesla orders at some point

757
00:42:14,400 --> 00:42:16,960
you're like near 0 around here
in Asia.

758
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:22,160
So, yeah, it's we're right now
and you can see in the prices in

759
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,480
lithium that's that's where it's
at.

760
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,200
It's kind of pricing in what
Rogue is talking about for later

761
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,920
part of the year already when
you're looking at when people

762
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,840
are making orders.
So yeah, I guess.

763
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:35,840
That's an that's an interesting
dynamic, right.

764
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,520
You've got you're trying to
you're trying to disaggregate

765
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,560
what's like genuine demand
versus brought forward demand to

766
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,680
kind of front run tariffs
that's.

767
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:50,080
Yeah, that's a huge thing.
It happens cyclically or I don't

768
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,200
know, micro cyclically, whatever
you want to call it all the

769
00:42:52,840 --> 00:42:54,640
time.
And there's seasonalities that

770
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:56,640
then people pick up on.
So you don't see that occurring

771
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,560
price as much when it happens
seasonally.

772
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:03,160
But when it happens more through
other non reoccurring events,

773
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:08,280
that's where it can kind of
throw off the, you know, what

774
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:12,720
you might see in production or
downstream consumer numbers

775
00:43:12,720 --> 00:43:16,040
versus what you're seeing really
happen at the micro level in in

776
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:20,080
the material sectors.
You know, one thing to, to break

777
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,240
from the, the, the cyclical
story here in, in terms of the

778
00:43:23,240 --> 00:43:27,400
lithium demand is, is, is that
China over the last two, 2 1/2

779
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:32,160
years has pivoted away from the
nickel cobalt based chemistries

780
00:43:32,240 --> 00:43:36,680
completely to the LA.
And so, you know, when we look

781
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:40,960
at that price spike when as
China ramped up the production

782
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,880
of batteries and then you see
nickel prices and cobalt prices

783
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:47,760
going through the roof, you
know, you saw it is the Chinese

784
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,200
started building out their
solar.

785
00:43:50,200 --> 00:43:53,040
It was the only silicon prices
went through the roof.

786
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,120
You know, lithium is the one
that stands out as one of the

787
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:01,200
most abundant resources on
Earth, whereas, you know, nickel

788
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,120
is concentrated in Indonesia and
cobalt is, is concentrated in

789
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:10,280
the DRC.
And so, you know, lithium, the

790
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:14,120
abundance of it has made it just
so challenging to, to, to

791
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,280
navigate.
I mean, are, are there moving to

792
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:20,880
increase trading on the LME?
Is, is this something you you're

793
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,840
seeing Bentley at all or like,
are people just not?

794
00:44:24,240 --> 00:44:27,840
It's just, it's too hard to to
to navigate in a public market.

795
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:34,680
Well, without like just ripping
apart some of these exchanges,

796
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,200
basically extra non Chinese
exchanges did the wrong way.

797
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:42,280
So they try to approach it from,
hey, let's make these average

798
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,480
price contracts that are like an
average price based on some

799
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:49,040
pricing agency.
And that doesn't work because

800
00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:51,880
you're not actually as a
physical player in the market.

801
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:56,040
You're not actually hedging
anything because you're that's

802
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:57,960
not the market price, right?
We're like LME metals, for

803
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:02,840
example, that is the market if I
go hedge 10 or that's the actual

804
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,880
10 market for it, right, where
it's a representation of average

805
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,880
price of, you know, some pricing
agency, which who knows how what

806
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:11,880
really goes on there and
especially in smaller metals.

807
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,040
So they kind of all did it
wrong.

808
00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:18,440
Anyone that decided to do
average price contracts and for

809
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,360
lack of better term, from where
I sit, and as a, you know, my

810
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,680
trader, pretty useless and
something gets less, something

811
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,360
gets way out of whack.
Like basically, if I'm going to

812
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,320
sit there and take advantage of
some asset managers, whoever

813
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,080
wants reason wants to buy 20%
above the market one month from

814
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:35,000
now.
But yeah, OK, I love them for

815
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:39,320
that reason.
But we had Guangzhou exchange,

816
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,440
they launched their lithium
carbonate futures and that's

817
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,880
deliverable now.
Problems with it because the

818
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,440
chemical, right?
Reality is, yeah, it's assault.

819
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:50,080
But I hope I didn't say
something really stupid there

820
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:52,240
about it being assault.
But it is a chemical.

821
00:45:52,240 --> 00:45:59,520
It's not the most commoditized
material and that creates some

822
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:03,440
issues and it's not perfect, but
now everybody can base their

823
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:07,440
contracts on that price because
you can actually go forward and

824
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,840
hedge it where it is a real
market where you know, I can

825
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:13,400
deliver on that or I can go take
delivery on it.

826
00:46:14,240 --> 00:46:21,040
There's again, small things that
occur there in terms of the like

827
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,000
the material you deliver to
exchange can't be more than I

828
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,440
think 90 days old and stuff like
that.

829
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:32,400
But yeah, I what I'm trying to
get at is the, it just wasn't

830
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,400
done right.
There's a attempt at it.

831
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,400
I know a box which is like a
Canadian company.

832
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:39,920
They're, they've been trying to
launch something that's

833
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:42,480
physically deliverable without
setting up warehouses and that

834
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,840
sort of thing.
So until that happens, you won't

835
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:48,280
see it as much in the as much
physical use.

836
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:52,440
So you mean, look, physical
volumes that drives market

837
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,280
volumes that makes a more
efficient market.

838
00:46:56,240 --> 00:46:59,240
I mean, look what happened,
Nicole, 2022 didn't work in the

839
00:46:59,240 --> 00:47:00,240
physics.
It just blew out, right?

840
00:47:00,240 --> 00:47:02,360
The whole thing that was a
disaster.

841
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,640
But what happened is, is they
allowed more Chinese brands to

842
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,560
be delivered in the LME.
Will that increase the physical

843
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:10,040
volume that can flow through
there?

844
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,080
And I mean, look at it today,
it's higher volumes than it was

845
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:16,120
before.
And the market is, let's say,

846
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:17,480
functioning for the most part,
right?

847
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:23,880
So yeah, that's the long answer,
I guess to the question no, why

848
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,160
isn't, you know, LME and stuff
and it's you got to have a

849
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:27,840
physical contract for it to
really be useful.

850
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:33,040
No, we, we and we talked about
something I, I, I'm interested

851
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:37,160
in this, this paradigm shift
because it, it's important to

852
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:41,400
copper demand is, is that when
we spoke, lithium prices have

853
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:45,600
dropped so much that in the LMP
battery prices have dropped so

854
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:48,280
much that a lot of people that
were talking about sodium ion

855
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:50,640
batteries.
Number one, they're very low

856
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,680
energy density.
So, you know, it's not very,

857
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:54,200
you're never going to put it on
a pickup truck.

858
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:57,960
But you know, we talked about
you're saying maybe that the

859
00:47:57,960 --> 00:48:01,680
sodium prices have made it so
that lithium, you know, based

860
00:48:01,680 --> 00:48:04,840
batteries are still the, I mean
in, in, in premise here that

861
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,160
sodium based batteries don't
require a, a copper film

862
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:10,920
associated with them, but the
the lithium based ones do.

863
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,800
So is there, is there something
there with the sodium based?

864
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,200
Have you seen anything in the
market people talking about it

865
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:18,640
more?
I know that they're actually

866
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:23,280
building batteries in China, but
is it still it's just a dominant

867
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,680
lithium market?
Yeah.

868
00:48:25,720 --> 00:48:28,360
Well, look, when we last spoke
to somebody about it March, I

869
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,480
mean, I think it was BYD, right,
that came out like the hybrid

870
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,880
LSP slash sodium battery.
I think that's like the greatest

871
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,280
attempt at something really
commercialized.

872
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:39,880
It's still less than 1% of the
market.

873
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:44,320
And part of the problem is it's
about double the price of LFT.

874
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:50,480
So it and you would look at all
the materials separately of the

875
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:54,080
two and you'd be like, oh,
sodium ion can compete, can

876
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:57,080
compete.
The problem is that the entire

877
00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:00,960
supply chain, the entire value
chain has been built around

878
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,400
lithium and LFP where kind of
can't compete.

879
00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,800
You have to like think about the
size and scale of that.

880
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,440
You would have to redo that with
sodium.

881
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:13,040
And there's other materials that
go into it like tin and stuff

882
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,520
that would you know.
Yeah, you don't have copper foil

883
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:16,720
and film anymore, which I didn't
know.

884
00:49:16,720 --> 00:49:17,840
Thank you for letting me know
that.

885
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:23,880
But you still have other
materials and and the logistics

886
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,080
of building our entire supply
chain I think are something that

887
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:30,920
may be unless there's a
sustained period of like, you

888
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,600
know, really high lithium prices
again, I I think it'll kind of

889
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:36,160
just sit in the background,
especially to put.

890
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,600
It is it right to think Bentley
that they, they greenlit that

891
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:45,800
factory BYD when lithium prices
were approaching 80,000 bucks,

892
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,880
you know, and, and there was,
you know, much more impetus to

893
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:53,040
do so.
I can't for sure say that, but

894
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,400
that would logically make sense.
There's always, you know,

895
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:59,400
technological studies that
people do and they want to, you

896
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:04,320
know, increase technology, find
other ways to do things.

897
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:07,440
And a lot of time, I will say a
lot of time I spoke with a guy

898
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:09,920
in rarest market about this and
he was bringing up that a lot of

899
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,720
these R&D facilities and brought
up a good point.

900
00:50:12,720 --> 00:50:13,880
I never thought about what I
should say.

901
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:18,480
He said that they will spend
years developing things just

902
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:22,480
general manufacturing industrial
complex.

903
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,160
But those teams a lot of times
are more like engineers and

904
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:28,880
scientists where like the cost
of the material in the economics

905
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,000
aren't necessarily a part of the
equation.

906
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:35,320
So they can be developing that
technology and then, you know,

907
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:36,880
spend 10 years on it, be like,
hey, look what we did.

908
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:40,840
And then, you know, it turns
out, well, there's not enough of

909
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:42,960
this material in the world to
actually make this happen.

910
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:46,000
That's not the case for sodium,
but you know, stuff like that.

911
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,120
So it also could have just been
basically a project.

912
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:50,440
And then they're like, well,
we're going to go forward with

913
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:51,880
it because the economics aren't
that bad.

914
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:55,720
So one of those 2 probably.
Yeah, I mean, I can't tell what

915
00:50:55,720 --> 00:50:57,320
came first, the chicken or the
egg here.

916
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:00,080
But it, you know, it seems like
the resource constraint, nickel

917
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:06,320
and cobalt forced this hard
pivot towards, you know, I, I, I

918
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,960
don't know the, the truth there
or well, you know, whether or

919
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:12,960
not it was just a price, price
competition in terms of the EU

920
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,320
market, but.
Yeah, that that, Yeah, I think,

921
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:17,600
I think LFP in that regard for
sure.

922
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,360
Was it the technological
breakthrough of the BYD Blade

923
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,320
battery that really made it take
off?

924
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:24,760
Yeah.
But they would have had to been

925
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:26,200
developing that for years, I
guess.

926
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,680
So it's probably what Rogue is
talking about where it's OK,

927
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,880
especially cobalt.
How do we, how do we build

928
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,520
something without cobalt?
That's more so than nickel, I

929
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,520
believe, yeah.
Bentley, what what do you make

930
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:41,080
of the, the role of of spot and
the the balance of various

931
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:46,360
sources of lithium set say if we
look forward like 10 years or

932
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:48,680
something, what sort of size of
the market does that kind of

933
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:53,560
make up?
Yeah, Hot Topic, I guess without

934
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,920
beating the dead horse of DLE,
I'll kind of push that to the

935
00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:00,600
side a bit.
The interesting aspect of DLE,

936
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,720
I'll say we've, you know, we
have the opportunity to sit in

937
00:52:03,720 --> 00:52:06,520
front of a lot of these guys.
They're trying to get DLE

938
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:09,760
production online and it's
actually not a new technology.

939
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:16,480
It's another common
misconception, but the the cost

940
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:17,760
of it is much higher than I
thought.

941
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:22,360
So even where we're at now, a
lot of these DLA projects won't

942
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,480
be profitable.
They might say that they are,

943
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:27,400
but you got you got the industry
a while, right.

944
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,200
If someone's, you know, their
pre keys, are you going to take

945
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:32,280
their, you know, they're saying
they're all in sustaining costs

946
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,240
is $8000 a ton.
OK, it's going to be higher than

947
00:52:35,240 --> 00:52:39,280
that.
I've seen a few of those I

948
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:43,080
should say, and we know you know
what Arcadian slash Rio is doing

949
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:45,440
down in South America, for
example.

950
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,760
I think that's a little bit
different, right where if you

951
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,600
looked at their pilot stuff,
you're like, that's not even

952
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:52,520
close to profitable.
I think, you know, scaling that

953
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:57,440
up and and learning from that
eventually will that those costs

954
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,320
will come down.
But brushing that part of the

955
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:03,280
deal aside, I don't, I think
it's going to kill Hard Rock

956
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,960
either.
A lot of the converters and

957
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:09,400
refiners, the battery grade are
set up around Hard Rock and the

958
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:14,680
economics of that part of the
intermediate steps is better

959
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:22,320
using usually better using Hard
Rock versus carbonate, not all

960
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:27,880
the time.
So that's not going away.

961
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:31,640
But the interesting aspect I
think that we're seeing is the

962
00:53:32,240 --> 00:53:36,840
possible push towards something
like LSM, which is lithium

963
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,800
sulfate monohydrate.
That is a value added step.

964
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:46,400
So when you have spodumene,
there's basically effectively 2

965
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,000
stages right before you get to a
carbonator hydroxide.

966
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:53,360
And that first stage produces
the lithium sulfate monohydrate,

967
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:58,320
LSM, lithium sulfate.
And we've seen spod producers

968
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,440
consider putting that in on site
instead of going to spot.

969
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:02,840
You mean concentrate, then they
do that.

970
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,440
And then actually like the
lithium sulfate, especially in

971
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:09,320
places like Zimbabwe where you
have transportation costs of

972
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:15,520
like 150 two, $100 a ton, right?
If your production costs outside

973
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:17,880
are $400.00 a ton, like that's
great, that's low.

974
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:22,040
But 200 two, $150.00 a ton
transportation costs, well, now

975
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:23,400
all of a sudden your economics
aren't great.

976
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,560
So if you can add a little bit
of value to it, then your

977
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:30,480
transportation costs also come
down because the amount of

978
00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:31,720
material that you're moving is
less.

979
00:54:31,720 --> 00:54:36,600
So I believe Sino mines in, in
Zimbabwe, they, they started to

980
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:40,160
do it.
I think major miners, especially

981
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:41,680
in Australia are going to
consider as well.

982
00:54:42,720 --> 00:54:47,280
I know Pilbara was working on,
they're working on something

983
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:52,120
else, but I think that's where
the the industry, yeah, yeah,

984
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:53,560
exactly.
I think you understand the

985
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,360
rationale for like.
A like a, you know, line town

986
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:58,200
where the transportation costs
would be pretty, you know,

987
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:01,560
pretty substantial too with so
far, so far in land, Yeah.

988
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:06,520
Yeah.
And so exactly like in there

989
00:55:06,520 --> 00:55:09,080
will be I think minors that
maybe still get away with with

990
00:55:09,080 --> 00:55:12,400
spodumene if they're logistics
are there for it.

991
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,320
It's kind of like iron ore,
right, in that in that sense.

992
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,960
But the the push will be
especially for someone like Lion

993
00:55:18,960 --> 00:55:21,120
Town, I think we'll be creating
some sort of midstream product

994
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:24,120
that I mean, even if you just
double the value of it, that

995
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,400
creates a much different
economic situation for where you

996
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,720
can export from the mine.
And I think that's where the

997
00:55:28,720 --> 00:55:31,760
industry's headed for that.
That makes a lot of sense.

998
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:36,920
Makes a lot of sense.
Got to ask you Bentley Tin

999
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:45,880
tantalum niobium 3 commodities.
I wanted on the last few, Yeah,

1000
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:47,560
yeah.
Have you guys ever talked about

1001
00:55:47,720 --> 00:55:50,360
tantalum niobium?
We've we've certainly talked

1002
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:54,560
about niobium yeah, Jadi and I
shareholders in in WA 1 here

1003
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:56,680
Ding Ding, Ding and then Tin of
course talk about it very

1004
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:59,280
frequently.
Tantalum not, not not very

1005
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:01,800
often.
Like, yeah, I mean to the extent

1006
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:05,960
that there's the the history of
of games like, you know, like

1007
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:10,080
tantalum circuits surround the
old sons of quality assets in in

1008
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:12,240
WA.
But but, but other than that,

1009
00:56:12,240 --> 00:56:16,440
very, very, very little.
Wow, we've got green bushes.

1010
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:17,840
That's yeah.
Yeah, Yeah.

1011
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,480
There's still a phenomenal
tandem section there, right?

1012
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:22,640
That you're still owned by GAM
if I'm not mistaken.

1013
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:24,640
It is.
It is.

1014
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:27,880
Yeah.
I mean, it was A, and sometimes

1015
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:31,120
read some old stuff just for, I
don't know, to see what things

1016
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:34,360
were like and like Base Metal
Handbook used to be a big thing

1017
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:38,440
that was from like early 2000s
and it brings up oh, like the

1018
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:40,480
big tin mines and stuff and it
brings up green bushes.

1019
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:42,240
And I was reading that a couple
years ago and just laughed.

1020
00:56:42,240 --> 00:56:43,640
I was like, Oh my God, I forgot
about that.

1021
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:48,680
But that's why they go together.
I guess that's that's the topic

1022
00:56:48,680 --> 00:56:52,160
though.
So I think look, Naobian markets

1023
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:56,640
are 80 plus percent of
Naobianism comes out of Brazil

1024
00:56:56,640 --> 00:57:00,600
from CBMM, just a little bit
different in that regard.

1025
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:02,800
It's heavily controlled by that.
And then another 10% are coming

1026
00:57:02,800 --> 00:57:07,680
out of Canada.
But tantalum, that's a pretty

1027
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:11,360
small niche metal that's found a
lot.

1028
00:57:11,720 --> 00:57:16,120
And I'm not a geologist, but
reason why we're involved in it

1029
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:18,120
is it's found a lot with the,
you know, the tin.

1030
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,760
And.
Artisanal stuff and throughout

1031
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:24,800
Africa, but it's also found in
pegmatites, right?

1032
00:57:24,800 --> 00:57:26,680
So that's what he was talking
about spodumene.

1033
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:30,480
So actually these lithium
miners, people forget they

1034
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:35,520
actually do make money and sell
tantalum, but it's a capacitor

1035
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,040
metal.
So that's what it's uses for

1036
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:44,360
super alloys, so aerospace, but
also capacitors for chip

1037
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,240
manufacturing.
So it's a pretty important

1038
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:50,640
metal.
And outside of the the lithium

1039
00:57:50,640 --> 00:57:52,880
miners known and they produce a
very small amount of it by the

1040
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:57,240
way, But outside of that it's
it's effectively all artisanal

1041
00:57:57,720 --> 00:58:03,360
and a lot of it came or comes
from Eastern DRC in Rwanda.

1042
00:58:03,440 --> 00:58:07,480
So there have been pretty
substantial supply disruptions

1043
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:10,680
and you haven't necessarily seen
big prices up, don't be wrong

1044
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:15,280
1520%, but you haven't quite
seen that follow through.

1045
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:17,520
And a lot of it is just like
long term contracts, there's no

1046
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:21,000
way to hedge it.
So you do have to have different

1047
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:22,960
pricing mechanisms where
there'll be a lag with that.

1048
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,200
But overall, the past couple
years price is up quite a bit

1049
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:29,240
because demand has been up.
As you know, the kind of the

1050
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:32,280
chip boom here the past couple
years has taken off and now you

1051
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:36,880
have almost like a war, right?
So wrong way to put it, like

1052
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:40,600
production war for who's going
to make the next, I don't know,

1053
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:42,960
chip for AI or whatever.
Is there overproduction there?

1054
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:48,760
Maybe Rogan knows better than
me, but so you're seeing, you

1055
00:58:48,760 --> 00:58:51,360
know, these Asian manufacturers,
especially here in China, try to

1056
00:58:51,360 --> 00:58:53,200
compete with NVIDIA and stuff
and they'll get there.

1057
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:57,800
But it's creating demand
imbalance and and metal that

1058
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:02,120
basically no major minor goes
out and tries to mine.

1059
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,160
That's always been my long term
theory, by the way, on tin as

1060
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:09,000
well as like it's the same sort
of thing, right?

1061
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:13,200
And such a small amount of every
electronic that no one cares at

1062
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:16,400
the price quadruples like
electronics makers did.

1063
00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:18,960
Some small amount, but
Tantalum's a similar.

1064
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:20,800
Story and.
It's even less Subs, it's even

1065
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:22,760
smaller.
So the supply side doesn't

1066
00:59:22,760 --> 00:59:24,560
really react outside of
artisanal.

1067
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:29,200
So yeah, when you say.
That that Rwanda ECDR.

1068
00:59:29,200 --> 00:59:31,760
So we're talking about like the
coal tan deposits, right?

1069
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:35,840
Or, you know, coal tan artisanal
mining and, and that that that's

1070
00:59:36,320 --> 00:59:38,200
wow.
The the Rwandan percentage might

1071
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:42,080
actually just be the Eastern DRC
kind of deposits, which are, are

1072
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:43,240
somewhat kind of just
appropriate.

1073
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:47,360
I called Rwanda because of the
the, you know, whoever has

1074
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:52,160
control in that area.
I'm not going to get myself in

1075
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:56,360
trouble, sure.
There's.

1076
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:59,080
You gotta be really careful with
some of that stuff if you're

1077
00:59:59,080 --> 01:00:00,840
dealing it because you don't
know what what it.

1078
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:03,200
Yes, what you're saying is,
yeah, it's right.

1079
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:06,560
Coltan, colonite light, it's
coltan.

1080
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,240
So that's, you can't, the
refining process of it.

1081
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:12,080
You can't separate it like the
concentration of simple levels,

1082
01:00:12,080 --> 01:00:14,200
you know, hundreds of $1,000,000
equipment to do that.

1083
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:17,560
But yeah, that's, that's where
that pill comes from.

1084
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,800
There's some out of Nigeria as
well and other parts of Africa.

1085
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:23,200
But the the disruption area is
yes, yeah, yeah.

1086
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,600
Yeah.
Rwanda, ECDSC.

1087
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:30,320
And is it, is it really kind of
the, you know, the demand, the

1088
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:33,520
demand story that gets and I
suppose supply concentration

1089
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,680
that gets that makes that kind
of niche sector particularly

1090
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:41,520
attractive as a commodity trader
or is it the volatility?

1091
01:00:41,640 --> 01:00:51,360
It does, yes and no.
I mean, demand has been not as

1092
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:54,920
you know, upward as you would
imagine for something like that

1093
01:00:55,440 --> 01:00:58,880
even tends the same way for for
someone like us, it's more of

1094
01:00:59,840 --> 01:01:02,000
it's all smaller and artisanal,
right.

1095
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:06,040
So it's, yeah, that's that's
where our attractiveness comes

1096
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,960
in without like lightly saying
like it's easier for us to make

1097
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:10,880
money, but it's actually easier
for us to get in the industry

1098
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:13,200
and it's easier for us to get
involved in the mining part of

1099
01:01:13,200 --> 01:01:15,680
it, the upstream part.
So putting money in the projects

1100
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,960
and things, you know, they
they're not asking for fifty 100

1101
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:20,960
million plus, right.
It's a lot smaller stuff.

1102
01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:23,240
Why we like to get involved in
it.

1103
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:26,640
Yeah, yeah.
What about the disruption with,

1104
01:01:26,880 --> 01:01:30,480
with BC, you know, the, the
major mine in the area, Bentley

1105
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:34,280
coming offline for, I mean about
a month or so because that

1106
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:37,960
really kicked up some of the,
you know, the, the prices that

1107
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:40,360
we see and the, the one listed
player over here.

1108
01:01:40,360 --> 01:01:43,680
Other than alpha men being the
owner, what what are the

1109
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:47,320
ramifications and the the
consequences of all that action?

1110
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:52,680
Well, I was sitting around my
phone waiting for a call from

1111
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:55,200
somebody in jail group seeing if
I had some supply to replace,

1112
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:58,720
but I forgot it.
They have 100% of the off take

1113
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:01,600
at this ease.
So it's a lot of supply to

1114
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:03,360
replace.
I don't they apparently they

1115
01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:05,720
didn't have problems.
They got to concentrate out and

1116
01:02:06,440 --> 01:02:09,280
slowly ramping back up.
But I mean, I can't really speak

1117
01:02:09,280 --> 01:02:12,360
for it other than they didn't
call.

1118
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:14,640
I was just kind of hoping, you
know, getting really high

1119
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:22,360
pressed, no kind of joke aside
from that the I forgot the

1120
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:28,240
question.
What is the, what are the

1121
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,320
consequences and what, what do
you think with this sort of

1122
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:33,800
disruption in mind?
And you know, I mean, you can

1123
01:02:33,800 --> 01:02:36,080
maybe speak to all the other
things happening in the tin

1124
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:39,720
market, Myanmar and the like
going forward or tin.

1125
01:02:42,040 --> 01:02:47,280
Yeah, So concentrate markets
tight, that's not really

1126
01:02:47,600 --> 01:02:50,920
shocking, but it was actually
pretty tight without these

1127
01:02:50,920 --> 01:02:53,760
disruptions.
Remember, you know, Myanmar and

1128
01:02:53,760 --> 01:02:58,400
the wall state they they shut
things down 2023.

1129
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:00,560
So it's been nearly two years
now.

1130
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:04,480
And I would say the biggest
surprise actually has been how

1131
01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:07,400
long it's taken to really hurt,
hurt the market.

1132
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:11,720
But it's, you know, we were,
there's, there's smelters here

1133
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,480
in China that were going through
their tailings, which you don't

1134
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:16,760
hear much about tailings that
tin smelters or smelters in

1135
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:22,440
general to be used as feedstock.
You, you have operating rates,

1136
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:28,440
the smelters are pretty low.
So refined tin outputs going to

1137
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:31,720
come down.
It goes back though a little bit

1138
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:34,600
to the demand story that we were
talking about was kind of

1139
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:36,600
pulling things forward.
We saw that late last year as

1140
01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:40,000
well, same sort of concept where
tin demand was pulled forward a

1141
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:42,320
little bit.
So that's why outside of the

1142
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:46,680
spike from the busy news, you
haven't seen tin do a whole lot

1143
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:50,160
other than 30,000.
Is the demands just pretty dead

1144
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:53,000
at the moment and how long is it
going to take to go through

1145
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:57,080
inventories that have been built
up over the past year or so?

1146
01:03:58,320 --> 01:04:00,480
Tough to say, but that's what's
happening.

1147
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:06,280
That's why you're not seeing too
much from the final product come

1148
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:09,360
through yet in in price outside
of the that short term spike.

1149
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:13,720
But you know, but this he's not
producing yet what they were

1150
01:04:14,280 --> 01:04:19,440
before the disruption.
And you know, man, Mawa State,

1151
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:23,280
yeah, I think we talked about
over WhatsApp a couple months

1152
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:29,680
ago, It's, it's it's been things
are coming back online in three

1153
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:33,400
months for the past year.
So that's the best best way I

1154
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:36,160
can state that.
Rogan, I know you've you've

1155
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:38,600
thought a fair bit about the tin
supply chain.

1156
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:46,080
Well, yeah, I mean, well, you
know, from earlier, I I remember

1157
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:49,080
you guys talking about where
mines are and where where

1158
01:04:49,080 --> 01:04:51,400
minerals come from.
I was living in Sierra Leone

1159
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:54,840
outside of the mine annexed by
the South African mercenaries

1160
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:56,840
after the war.
And you just start to realize

1161
01:04:56,840 --> 01:05:01,120
that it's really challenging to
to use these resources as a way

1162
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:04,600
of development because once you
raise taxes high enough, people

1163
01:05:04,600 --> 01:05:06,800
just start moving them across
borders.

1164
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:10,560
But, you know, in, in terms of
the tin market, I mean, both of

1165
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:14,320
these countries are tremendously
important suppliers to China.

1166
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:21,120
It was interesting to me to see
the Americans get involved in

1167
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:24,720
the conflict and that certainly
was something that surprised me.

1168
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:28,840
You know, I think most of the
minerals that the US is

1169
01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:32,040
targeting are in the South of
the country and, and you know,

1170
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:35,840
with that railway through Zambia
to the the corridor there.

1171
01:05:36,400 --> 01:05:41,160
And then, you know, so the, IT
coming to a quick end is, is

1172
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:45,040
certainly positive in terms of
stability for, you know, not

1173
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:47,360
only the to the market, but the
people of the the region.

1174
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:52,520
I'm sure Goma and, and the other
regions are still, you know,

1175
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:55,960
it's a challenging situation.
But yeah, where these minerals

1176
01:05:55,960 --> 01:05:58,680
come from and how they get to
their final destination and in

1177
01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:03,080
China being an important market
for them, you know, it's it's

1178
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:07,240
just as Bentley states, it's a
tight concentrate market,

1179
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,920
downstream demand.
You know, it, it'll be

1180
01:06:10,920 --> 01:06:12,800
interesting to watch over the
next six months.

1181
01:06:12,800 --> 01:06:16,920
But I think that, you know, what
happens is, is that the

1182
01:06:16,920 --> 01:06:19,360
constraint hits and then
everybody panics.

1183
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:24,520
And and so, you know, when
inventories hit these, you know,

1184
01:06:24,680 --> 01:06:27,760
historically low levels, then I
think people start to to pay

1185
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:29,800
attention.
And so that's what I would watch

1186
01:06:30,200 --> 01:06:35,640
in terms of a market reaction.
What were you surprised, You

1187
01:06:35,640 --> 01:06:39,240
know, being being in Washington
there the Americans getting

1188
01:06:39,240 --> 01:06:42,720
involved and do you do you put
any weight in this quote UN

1189
01:06:42,720 --> 01:06:45,280
quote minerals deal that's
that's going to emerge.

1190
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:52,960
In in the DRC, yes, or, or the
Ukraine one or you know.

1191
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:58,200
Take your pick.
You know, I, I, I would, I would

1192
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:04,480
view it positively to see more
activity in, in the southern

1193
01:07:04,480 --> 01:07:07,480
part of the country to develop
those resources, whether it's on

1194
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:12,640
the DRC side or the Zambia side.
I think that there is a show of

1195
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:16,840
commitment from the US and, and,
and a growing understanding

1196
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:21,920
that, you know, these regions
are are places that they must

1197
01:07:21,920 --> 01:07:25,360
engage with rather than, you
know, a choice of engagement.

1198
01:07:25,800 --> 01:07:29,360
And, and, and from someone who,
you know, has spent some a good

1199
01:07:29,360 --> 01:07:32,200
amount of time in Africa, I view
it positively.

1200
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:35,720
But yeah, I don't, you know,
what are the teeth to it?

1201
01:07:36,280 --> 01:07:38,480
That's that's a much harder
thing.

1202
01:07:38,480 --> 01:07:40,440
You know, there's a lot of
things that come out of

1203
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:42,120
Washington in terms of
statements.

1204
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:45,520
You know, we're going to invest
in the the mining companies now.

1205
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:50,680
And you know, from my
perspective, the US would be the

1206
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:53,200
most successful if they develop
something like a Japanese

1207
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:56,640
trading house, then, you know,
trying to, to get individual

1208
01:07:56,640 --> 01:08:00,080
lining companies to, to pull the
trigger and invest more in the

1209
01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:04,200
southern part of the country at
the eastern region is something

1210
01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:07,360
I'm, I'm less familiar with
other than watching the media

1211
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:12,440
reports and, and trying to track
where the M23 rebels are

1212
01:08:12,440 --> 01:08:15,440
occupied.
So, yeah, I, I mean, All in all,

1213
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:19,399
it's it, it's extremely positive
to see the US engage and

1214
01:08:19,399 --> 01:08:21,880
something that I, I thought
could have, could have escalated

1215
01:08:21,880 --> 01:08:24,720
quickly and, and for the
betterment of the local

1216
01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:27,240
population.
I I think that a stale, you

1217
01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:30,640
know, a retreat to however it's
going to be called is is

1218
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:33,680
positive.
Bentley imbalance in the copper

1219
01:08:33,680 --> 01:08:34,840
market.
What's going on?

1220
01:08:38,840 --> 01:08:41,920
Well, you know, Rogan might
actually have have a little more

1221
01:08:42,040 --> 01:08:46,640
hand on the pulse here than I do
that talk about a lot with him

1222
01:08:46,640 --> 01:08:49,680
actually.
But the imbalance really is

1223
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:52,439
really has been the flows out of
regional flows.

1224
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:56,800
So replacing if you, if you're
going to put a 25% tariff on

1225
01:08:56,800 --> 01:09:00,880
something, what you could
effectively do today or have

1226
01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:06,800
done is buy copper one price,
sell it forward in the US.

1227
01:09:07,200 --> 01:09:10,800
And even if that takes a year
for that 25% to come in, that's

1228
01:09:11,240 --> 01:09:13,560
pretty nice little payday,
right.

1229
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:18,439
So it's a combination of that
and doesn't quite work that

1230
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:22,720
simply, but it's a combination
of that and the fear of needing

1231
01:09:23,200 --> 01:09:26,560
the copper to be there, right?
If you're actually some of that

1232
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:31,399
distributes and supplies
material or need it and that has

1233
01:09:31,399 --> 01:09:33,680
just caused mass amounts of
flows, right?

1234
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:35,439
Whereas I know last year when I
came on, I was like, all right,

1235
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:38,279
well, there's no, there's no
material in North America.

1236
01:09:38,279 --> 01:09:41,840
No one really kind of used what
what's there gets used.

1237
01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:45,200
And that created like the CME
problems last year was some

1238
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:48,160
different situation, but then
this year now, you know, the

1239
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:49,680
tariffs and it's driving flows
there.

1240
01:09:49,680 --> 01:09:52,800
And that creates it's, it's,
it's, it's a fake demand

1241
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:55,080
essentially, right?
It's not being transformed or

1242
01:09:55,080 --> 01:10:01,320
value added at that point.
So that it's not a necessary

1243
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:03,400
fake demand in terms of price
because price can move up from

1244
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:04,840
it.
But it's something to be wary of

1245
01:10:04,840 --> 01:10:08,720
Where right, where, if, if
there's a lot of material that

1246
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:10,080
can come flood the market at
that point.

1247
01:10:10,160 --> 01:10:13,800
Now I think Rogan, you were
talking about why, you know,

1248
01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:20,240
producers in South America
importing material like ramping

1249
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:22,760
up production just to import in
the US make more money rather

1250
01:10:22,760 --> 01:10:25,720
than, you know, dealing with
TCR, CS and the like.

1251
01:10:25,720 --> 01:10:28,320
And I know you're speaking also
with somebody about recycling

1252
01:10:28,320 --> 01:10:33,280
too in the States.
Curious on on she's seeing

1253
01:10:33,280 --> 01:10:35,520
seeing differences in the
recycled markets.

1254
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:39,640
Yeah, no.
So I mean, it's starting with

1255
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:43,160
the recycling side.
And I, and I've been, you know,

1256
01:10:43,160 --> 01:10:46,360
pounding the head on the table
about these tariffs because it

1257
01:10:46,360 --> 01:10:48,840
seems like they're risking
millions of jobs in, in

1258
01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:51,680
construction for 130 jobs in a
smelter.

1259
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:55,800
But in the US, the bottleneck is
the mine or, you know, in this

1260
01:10:55,800 --> 01:10:59,040
case the, the scrap as a, an
input.

1261
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:02,720
And the rest of the world, you
know, it's, it's a smelter.

1262
01:11:02,720 --> 01:11:07,000
They there's too much capacity,
but you know, the US exports a

1263
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:11,360
million metric tons every year
in, in scrap and scrap dealers

1264
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:13,520
make profit off an arbitrage,
right?

1265
01:11:13,520 --> 01:11:16,600
So, you know, they buy from the
manufacturer, whether it's

1266
01:11:16,600 --> 01:11:18,960
Bearbright or #2 and they try
and sell it for more than they

1267
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:21,240
bought it for.
It's a pretty simple business in

1268
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:23,960
that regard.
But the fact that you're

1269
01:11:24,800 --> 01:11:27,320
capacity in the United States,
you process the material is less

1270
01:11:27,320 --> 01:11:29,600
than what you're producing means
you have to export it.

1271
01:11:30,720 --> 01:11:35,840
And now the LME is a 15% lower
than the COMEX.

1272
01:11:36,120 --> 01:11:38,440
It means that a scrap dealer is
either building additional

1273
01:11:38,440 --> 01:11:40,560
inventories or selling out into
the global market.

1274
01:11:41,320 --> 01:11:45,160
So if you take a 12 month
rolling year over year US

1275
01:11:45,160 --> 01:11:49,080
exports of copper scrap,
traditionally as copper prices

1276
01:11:49,080 --> 01:11:52,640
rise, scrap exports increase.
You know it helps to rebalance

1277
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:55,680
the market.
But that mechanism is, is

1278
01:11:55,680 --> 01:11:59,640
slightly broken because a scrap
dealer now needs to wait till

1279
01:11:59,640 --> 01:12:02,880
that, you know, position goes up
15% more to actually make a

1280
01:12:02,880 --> 01:12:04,240
profit.
So they, they're selling it a

1281
01:12:04,240 --> 01:12:08,360
loss into the global markets,
you know, if there was no price

1282
01:12:08,360 --> 01:12:11,880
volatility or they're, they're
waiting for prices to rise in

1283
01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:15,040
order to sell.
So, you know, whether it's the

1284
01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:17,880
manufacturers that are holding
inventories of scrap, whether

1285
01:12:17,880 --> 01:12:21,040
it's, you know, AT&T figuring
out that they've got a couple

1286
01:12:21,040 --> 01:12:24,360
1000 tons in their warehouses
that they can get rid of when

1287
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:27,560
prices rise, people start
looking at, at, at, at scrap and

1288
01:12:27,560 --> 01:12:31,240
start, you know, off loading it.
And those scrap dealers are, are

1289
01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:34,960
in a challenging position
because they're, they're fewer

1290
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:38,400
and fewer arbitrages, you know,
on the other side of the

1291
01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:42,160
Pacific, though, what's really
interesting to me over the last,

1292
01:12:42,400 --> 01:12:46,280
you know, month or so of data
is, is that China's exports of

1293
01:12:46,280 --> 01:12:49,840
refined copper are increasing
with the Yongshan premium and

1294
01:12:49,840 --> 01:12:55,960
the market in backwardation.
And so those you know, issues,

1295
01:12:55,960 --> 01:12:59,920
if we look at the decline in
inventories, I think we're down

1296
01:13:00,160 --> 01:13:04,320
over 60% in the last month and
you know, in the US you're up

1297
01:13:04,320 --> 01:13:08,200
over 50%.
And so where, how is how are

1298
01:13:08,200 --> 01:13:12,120
price mechanisms operating?
Well, if I'm trying to sell

1299
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:15,480
right now, I'm going to the
Americans and I'm saying,

1300
01:13:15,480 --> 01:13:19,160
listen, if the IT gets support,
I'll take it back.

1301
01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:21,360
If the tariffs are implemented,
don't need to worry about it.

1302
01:13:21,360 --> 01:13:22,760
We'll we'll just cancel the
contract there.

1303
01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:25,760
But if it gets support, you're
getting a great deal because you

1304
01:13:25,760 --> 01:13:28,120
know, I'm selling it you to you
below comex.

1305
01:13:28,120 --> 01:13:31,360
So you know, I can link to my,
to the LME and and my business

1306
01:13:31,360 --> 01:13:34,160
is fine.
And so there's this rush to

1307
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:37,440
deliver into the United States
and that creates a, a

1308
01:13:37,840 --> 01:13:41,240
predicament for, for the Asian
markets and in particular China,

1309
01:13:41,240 --> 01:13:43,960
which, you know, consumes more
than half of the world's copper.

1310
01:13:45,480 --> 01:13:49,240
And unlike last year when we saw
the, you know, a peak demand

1311
01:13:49,240 --> 01:13:52,280
destruction associated with real
estate on a, you know, 12 month

1312
01:13:52,280 --> 01:13:55,880
rolling basis, or that's how we,
how I, I put it through.

1313
01:13:55,880 --> 01:13:59,680
And, and that's what the data
showed, you know, there, there's

1314
01:13:59,680 --> 01:14:01,840
less demand destruction
associated with real estate

1315
01:14:01,840 --> 01:14:03,440
right now.
Everybody's rushing to get these

1316
01:14:03,440 --> 01:14:07,040
renewables installed And you
know, the question is whether or

1317
01:14:07,040 --> 01:14:09,320
not we have a drop off in demand
in the second-half of the year

1318
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:12,640
from China and in the renewable
sector, whether battery

1319
01:14:12,640 --> 01:14:14,520
production expansions can make
up for that.

1320
01:14:15,440 --> 01:14:18,720
You know, whether the grid
investment that's extremely

1321
01:14:18,720 --> 01:14:22,240
robust right now is, is
consuming more copper or they're

1322
01:14:22,280 --> 01:14:24,840
switching to aluminum on these
ultra high voltage lines.

1323
01:14:25,320 --> 01:14:28,280
So there's tremendous, you know,
the, the demand question is

1324
01:14:28,280 --> 01:14:32,360
totally uncertain, but one thing
is for certain is, is that the

1325
01:14:32,360 --> 01:14:36,240
marginal production of, of
refined cathode and, and rod is

1326
01:14:36,240 --> 01:14:38,560
being delivered into the United
States for profitability

1327
01:14:38,560 --> 01:14:41,680
reasons.
And China's finding themselves

1328
01:14:41,680 --> 01:14:46,520
in a, you know, quickly
declining inventories, rising

1329
01:14:46,520 --> 01:14:51,640
prices and you know, the market.
If I, you know, can say what you

1330
01:14:51,640 --> 01:14:53,960
know, I'm here is, is that, you
know, the Chinese start

1331
01:14:53,960 --> 01:14:57,200
rejecting prices at 80,000 RMB
per ton.

1332
01:14:57,960 --> 01:15:01,080
So that's the, that's the level
to watch is as inventories

1333
01:15:01,080 --> 01:15:06,240
decline into to to June.
And, and whether or not you see

1334
01:15:06,240 --> 01:15:10,920
the Chinese buying at about
80,000 RMB per ton is, is kind

1335
01:15:10,920 --> 01:15:13,640
of what I'm looking for.
But in the short term, it's

1336
01:15:13,640 --> 01:15:18,000
really hard because, you know, a
trader takes a risk by

1337
01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:21,960
delivering to the US in terms of
when the Section 230 twos come

1338
01:15:21,960 --> 01:15:23,960
out.
And, you know, they're saying

1339
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:25,040
they should come in Trump
tongue.

1340
01:15:25,440 --> 01:15:29,200
So I, you know, if that meets in
short order means it could come

1341
01:15:29,200 --> 01:15:33,520
any day rather than the allotted
period for Section 232 to go

1342
01:15:33,520 --> 01:15:35,760
into through it the
investigation.

1343
01:15:37,000 --> 01:15:39,600
But yeah, you know, if it's in
line with some of the other

1344
01:15:39,800 --> 01:15:43,680
dramatic moves in terms of
metals tariffs, you know, the

1345
01:15:43,680 --> 01:15:45,880
market is right to price in this
premium right now.

1346
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:49,840
But the the contango in the US
and the backwardation in China

1347
01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:52,760
kind of just is a great
depiction of where the flows are

1348
01:15:52,760 --> 01:15:56,040
going and and the issue to
develop in the coming months.

1349
01:15:57,480 --> 01:16:03,120
How does this play out?
Jeez.

1350
01:16:03,640 --> 01:16:06,120
Well, there's, I mean, I guess
there's multiple paths, right?

1351
01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:10,880
So if, if, if COMEX, you know,
the response from COMEX on the

1352
01:16:10,880 --> 01:16:14,080
day of the Section 232, whether
it is or isn't implemented will

1353
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:17,320
be very interesting, right?
Because if it isn't implemented,

1354
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:22,520
you know, it should fall back to
the LME price, at which point

1355
01:16:22,520 --> 01:16:25,760
everybody would want to buy off
of COMEX and sell, sell them to

1356
01:16:25,760 --> 01:16:33,760
China, you know, So, but I have
a hard time thinking through

1357
01:16:33,960 --> 01:16:36,680
what happened with the Section
232.

1358
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:41,440
I have an easier time thinking
through Chinese inventories

1359
01:16:41,440 --> 01:16:44,080
continue to decline on a week up
over week basis.

1360
01:16:44,080 --> 01:16:47,840
You know you get them on Friday
morning and when they hit this

1361
01:16:47,840 --> 01:16:54,400
level, you know let's say 20,000
metric tons of available

1362
01:16:55,120 --> 01:16:59,480
unwarranted inventories.
Do we see backwardation continue

1363
01:16:59,480 --> 01:17:03,520
to increase relative to to other
futures prices, you know Ford

1364
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:06,400
futures because then everybody's
trying to lock in these

1365
01:17:06,400 --> 01:17:09,800
inventories.
I always like to come back to

1366
01:17:09,920 --> 01:17:12,720
the key in this industry is
always wiring cable.

1367
01:17:13,440 --> 01:17:16,480
So raw and production rates and
then the wiring cable operating

1368
01:17:16,480 --> 01:17:21,040
rates are my key indicator
indicators of downstream demand.

1369
01:17:21,760 --> 01:17:25,360
Thin films sheets, all of these
other materials and copper

1370
01:17:25,360 --> 01:17:29,000
markets are important.
But if the wiring cables humming

1371
01:17:29,360 --> 01:17:31,040
then then we could see higher
prices.

1372
01:17:32,880 --> 01:17:38,280
Enlightening, Rogan and maybe
for us to wrap up any last

1373
01:17:38,280 --> 01:17:43,480
thoughts on the the tariff mess
that we're we're seeing daily.

1374
01:17:47,880 --> 01:17:52,800
I, you know, I, I, I think about
this more often than I should.

1375
01:17:53,680 --> 01:17:56,040
You know, there are communities
in the United States that have

1376
01:17:56,040 --> 01:18:00,000
been decimated by globalization,
but I believe that the

1377
01:18:00,000 --> 01:18:03,360
production frontier is optimized
with free trade.

1378
01:18:04,240 --> 01:18:07,880
Disruptions to free trade are
detrimental to growth and

1379
01:18:07,880 --> 01:18:10,280
ultimately are paid by the
consumer as in the form of the

1380
01:18:10,280 --> 01:18:13,480
tax.
So efforts by the Trump

1381
01:18:13,480 --> 01:18:18,120
administration to restore supply
chains and, and, you know,

1382
01:18:19,360 --> 01:18:25,840
remake the American economy will
likely not succeed in the short

1383
01:18:25,840 --> 01:18:28,000
term.
And the amount of economic pain

1384
01:18:28,000 --> 01:18:34,880
associated with the disruptions,
I think our, our keys to why we,

1385
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:38,800
we ended up where we were today.
It, I don't know if this will go

1386
01:18:38,800 --> 01:18:42,840
out today, but yeah, today was
the essentially, you know,

1387
01:18:43,120 --> 01:18:46,080
Liberation Day +7 for the rest
of the world.

1388
01:18:46,640 --> 01:18:48,880
We're, you know, we're right
back to where we started before

1389
01:18:48,880 --> 01:18:51,880
Liberation Day.
And, and a lot of it is, is that

1390
01:18:51,920 --> 01:18:53,560
you'd end up with empty shelves
in a month.

1391
01:18:53,680 --> 01:18:57,440
So this off data turns to hard
data and the hard data then

1392
01:18:57,440 --> 01:19:00,120
eventually shocks the consumer.
And that's something I don't

1393
01:19:00,120 --> 01:19:07,000
think I would, I would want to
be have my name on as a as a

1394
01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:10,280
president or so I think there
there are extreme challenges

1395
01:19:10,280 --> 01:19:13,320
associated with the imbalance
trade relationship with China,

1396
01:19:13,320 --> 01:19:15,600
but I don't necessarily believe
tariffs will solve it.

1397
01:19:17,000 --> 01:19:19,880
Bentley what do you think It's I
was going to ask for Reagan.

1398
01:19:19,880 --> 01:19:23,360
Does he think it's kind of, do
you think it's I guess too late

1399
01:19:23,400 --> 01:19:28,880
to solve or to prevent any of
the economic, not any economic

1400
01:19:28,880 --> 01:19:32,560
damage, but let's say notable
economic damage?

1401
01:19:36,400 --> 01:19:43,040
I I'm of the opinion that that a
10% rate on the on the rest of

1402
01:19:43,040 --> 01:19:47,880
the world, whether it's bananas
or or what have you, it

1403
01:19:47,880 --> 01:19:51,200
increases prices, which will
increase inflation.

1404
01:19:51,320 --> 01:19:53,960
That can be a one time shock in
prices, but it will raise the

1405
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:58,520
rate of measured inflation.
It and at that point it makes it

1406
01:19:58,520 --> 01:20:00,120
harder for the Fed to lower
rates.

1407
01:20:00,760 --> 01:20:04,360
If the tax bill this month comes
out and and they blow out, you

1408
01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:06,880
know, the budget, That's just
one more reason that, you know,

1409
01:20:06,880 --> 01:20:12,440
you could see, you know, demand
outstrip supply and and, you

1410
01:20:12,440 --> 01:20:16,400
know, prices just rising higher.
And, and I I think that's a, a

1411
01:20:16,400 --> 01:20:19,640
really awkward position for the
bond market as well.

1412
01:20:19,640 --> 01:20:26,760
So the the tariff situation.
A lot of it's baked in at this

1413
01:20:26,760 --> 01:20:27,880
point.
To answer your question

1414
01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:33,720
directly, it could be made worse
by other policy decisions.

1415
01:20:35,680 --> 01:20:38,680
I'm not bullish on the US
economy in the short term

1416
01:20:38,720 --> 01:20:43,080
because of this price shock.
But you know, I think we have

1417
01:20:43,080 --> 01:20:47,640
some of the most brilliant and
excellent to tech engineers and

1418
01:20:47,640 --> 01:20:51,080
and some of the things I'm
seeing in AI make, you know, me

1419
01:20:51,080 --> 01:20:55,640
optimistic about the future.
So, I mean, I, I'm sorry that's

1420
01:20:55,640 --> 01:20:59,400
a little bit rambling, but yeah.
I was going to ask because I

1421
01:20:59,400 --> 01:21:02,520
know you're a thick guy too.
So like just in general on the

1422
01:21:02,520 --> 01:21:05,200
on the dollar.
I mean, it's it's come back and

1423
01:21:05,320 --> 01:21:09,360
and racer, I don't know I would
call low cross the curve.

1424
01:21:09,360 --> 01:21:13,440
So are you I don't know,
especially with some of you guys

1425
01:21:13,440 --> 01:21:16,000
are clients.
Are you guys seeing people?

1426
01:21:16,080 --> 01:21:23,280
I guess unwind that, yeah,
dollar short and short yield or

1427
01:21:23,320 --> 01:21:26,640
long yields play?
Or are they still thinking that

1428
01:21:26,640 --> 01:21:28,960
that's coming through?
Because in reality, like, yeah,

1429
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:33,040
you know, tariffs not less than
they were going to be, but you

1430
01:21:33,040 --> 01:21:35,720
know, that deficit is not
getting solved.

1431
01:21:35,720 --> 01:21:38,560
And it's not like, yeah, stuff
still happened.

1432
01:21:38,560 --> 01:21:43,960
It's still a problem.
Yeah, I, I mean, it's the, the

1433
01:21:44,880 --> 01:21:48,560
looking at capital flows is, is
like looking through a a bowl of

1434
01:21:48,560 --> 01:21:52,280
spaghetti noodles.
You you just you never know who

1435
01:21:52,440 --> 01:21:55,520
wear it along the path this this
flow comes from.

1436
01:21:55,520 --> 01:22:00,360
But I believe that that the East
Asian savers have certainly

1437
01:22:00,600 --> 01:22:04,480
pulled back the insurance
companies and I also think that

1438
01:22:04,480 --> 01:22:09,400
the European repatriations have
have happened.

1439
01:22:10,200 --> 01:22:13,560
I think it if I was investing in
the environment right now in the

1440
01:22:13,560 --> 01:22:17,440
United States, I think the on
the fringes of the market places

1441
01:22:17,440 --> 01:22:20,880
like private equity, venture
capital, I don't want to send

1442
01:22:20,880 --> 01:22:24,280
money to the US and and lock it
up for seven years at this point

1443
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:29,360
because it's the regulatory
landscape is is is becoming a

1444
01:22:29,360 --> 01:22:32,600
little less foreseeable in that
time range.

1445
01:22:32,600 --> 01:22:37,800
And so you know, you can see
fast money flows back into to

1446
01:22:37,800 --> 01:22:39,400
debt securities in the US for
sure.

1447
01:22:39,400 --> 01:22:43,480
But I think some of these more
private markets will have a

1448
01:22:43,480 --> 01:22:46,200
little bit more of the challenge
going forward, attracting

1449
01:22:46,200 --> 01:22:48,600
foreign investors.
No, interesting.

1450
01:22:48,600 --> 01:22:50,760
So the I guess I don't know.
I don't I can't remember how

1451
01:22:50,760 --> 01:22:53,440
much you really see but or talk
to people in the private

1452
01:22:53,440 --> 01:22:56,880
markets.
But is, you know, there was

1453
01:22:57,320 --> 01:22:59,560
especially in a real estate,
right, there's been so much

1454
01:22:59,560 --> 01:23:03,920
rollover in that space.
How is it like if if outside

1455
01:23:03,920 --> 01:23:08,320
money doesn't come in to to make
the next to extend funds or, you

1456
01:23:08,400 --> 01:23:11,920
know, we're going to have series
seven of our fund or whatever.

1457
01:23:12,760 --> 01:23:15,920
I feel like that's kind of a,
you know, that becomes a

1458
01:23:15,920 --> 01:23:18,520
problem, especially we all get
into a pension discussion.

1459
01:23:18,520 --> 01:23:21,000
That's Rogan and I's previous
life, but.

1460
01:23:21,720 --> 01:23:22,800
Yeah.
Yeah.

1461
01:23:23,120 --> 01:23:25,600
That become like almost like a
tipping point of of, I don't

1462
01:23:26,800 --> 01:23:29,480
want to say a financial crisis,
but you know, something more

1463
01:23:29,480 --> 01:23:34,400
significant that we've seen.
I I think that the, the issue

1464
01:23:34,880 --> 01:23:39,880
remains that the United States
is the global reserve currency.

1465
01:23:41,520 --> 01:23:45,840
These these individual markets
will rebalance in a way that

1466
01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:48,520
find identified market clearing
prices.

1467
01:23:49,120 --> 01:23:54,720
But the attractiveness of the US
and it, it isn't almost appears

1468
01:23:54,720 --> 01:23:59,680
in an intentional decay of
attractiveness to investing in

1469
01:23:59,680 --> 01:24:02,880
the US, whether it's, you know,
greater control over private

1470
01:24:02,880 --> 01:24:08,760
markets, you know, intentions of
bringing back supply chains that

1471
01:24:08,760 --> 01:24:13,600
have higher costs.
It, it's not the post 2008

1472
01:24:13,600 --> 01:24:17,400
capital market that everybody
flooded money into.

1473
01:24:17,400 --> 01:24:22,960
And, and it seems that some of
the, the pushing of money away

1474
01:24:22,960 --> 01:24:27,800
from the US is intentional.
And so I don't know how that

1475
01:24:27,840 --> 01:24:31,240
finds that's the balance.
I, I think about more, I, I, I

1476
01:24:31,240 --> 01:24:34,160
can't tell you how the market
clearing prices of, of real

1477
01:24:34,160 --> 01:24:36,680
estate in the private
transactions associated with it

1478
01:24:36,680 --> 01:24:39,320
will, will, will, will find it,
its place.

1479
01:24:39,320 --> 01:24:43,360
But yeah, I mean, some more
liquid fund comes in and, and

1480
01:24:43,360 --> 01:24:47,720
buys out some private fund and
someone takes a loss along the

1481
01:24:47,720 --> 01:24:51,160
way.
But yeah, I the, the main story

1482
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:55,120
and, and the question we should
all have it is, you know, where

1483
01:24:55,120 --> 01:24:57,240
does the marginal dollar of
investment go to?

1484
01:24:57,240 --> 01:25:00,960
And if, if it, and hopefully a
lot of the rest of the world

1485
01:25:00,960 --> 01:25:06,040
could use investment and, and a
lot of, in my belief, you know,

1486
01:25:06,040 --> 01:25:09,640
the the largest shortage of
metals is, is based in the

1487
01:25:09,640 --> 01:25:13,000
copper market.
And you know, we have climate

1488
01:25:13,000 --> 01:25:17,040
change, but also competition
coming from some of these

1489
01:25:17,040 --> 01:25:20,640
renewable sectors.
And so it'll be very interesting

1490
01:25:20,640 --> 01:25:23,320
to watch.
And then, you know, there's this

1491
01:25:23,320 --> 01:25:26,040
theory that there's a jeweled
economy, you know, who can

1492
01:25:26,040 --> 01:25:28,560
produce the most energy will,
will produce the future.

1493
01:25:29,280 --> 01:25:32,520
And so artificial intelligence
is going to be limited by the

1494
01:25:32,520 --> 01:25:34,080
amount of energy you can
produce.

1495
01:25:34,080 --> 01:25:37,360
And so again, I always come back
to copper is is the

1496
01:25:37,360 --> 01:25:40,200
indispensable metal.
It's a great place to leave it.

1497
01:25:40,200 --> 01:25:43,160
I've loved, I've loved the the
dynamic that both of you have

1498
01:25:43,160 --> 01:25:46,560
brought to the episode today.
And, and yeah, just it was, it

1499
01:25:46,560 --> 01:25:49,520
was wicked to to kind of sit
back and hit both of you, kind

1500
01:25:49,520 --> 01:25:52,280
of ask each other questions.
I'm going to have to listen back

1501
01:25:52,280 --> 01:25:54,040
to that one, JD myself, even
though I was part of the

1502
01:25:54,040 --> 01:25:56,520
conversation.
This has just been awesome.

1503
01:25:56,800 --> 01:26:00,160
Bentley and Rogan, thank you
both so much for joining us.

1504
01:26:00,400 --> 01:26:01,520
Thanks guys.
Appreciate it.

1505
01:26:03,120 --> 01:26:06,360
Thank you, I appreciate it.
There we go mate and a massive

1506
01:26:06,360 --> 01:26:09,320
thank you to all our partners.
Firstly, Mineral Mining services

1507
01:26:09,560 --> 01:26:14,080
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1508
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1509
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