Majors Panic Amid Market Madness (Koala)

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Apparently we're going to build
a lot of nuclear reactors.

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You know, the IEA, instead of
talking about how to balance

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energy markets, went to this
whole how are we going to net

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zero?
And now that I'm just woke up

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and gone, OK, we kind of got
ahead of ourselves.

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This is an industry where
everyone wants to be third.

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They want to build the third
reactor.

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They don't want to build the 1st
or the 2nd.

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And I just think this is the the
issue with nuclear right now is.

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Another week, more mining news,
more things that we did not

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expect would happen this week.
And we're joined by a marsupial

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who, who is not Australian.
I'm, I'm constantly confused by,

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by your, your wannabe identity.
Mr. Koala, thank you so much for

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joining us for our weekly wrap.
I've been on the road for three

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weeks.
Has anything interesting

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happened?
That's why that's why we dialed

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you in to find out what you
found out that has been

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interesting on the road.
So we're going to talk about all

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of the, you know, the Beaver
Beaver Creek you've been to very

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recently.
I know, I know you're obsessed

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with the majors and especially
when the majors do a dance

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together and we've finally seen
a big dance between Angle and

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Tech.
We're going to get your thoughts

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on that.
The mark is frothy.

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So we're going to go through all
of that and with great control.

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JD, we've got we've got, we've
got a wild list of things going

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on, like totally, totally with
Qatar.

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You know, we've got a we've got
to talk about barracks form.

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That's just an amazing deposit
and sweet deal.

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See our deal.
We'll deliver again.

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Plenty to run through, Koala.
Why don't you kick us off mate?

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As Trev said, you have been to
Beaver Creek amongst a couple

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other conferences in the the
recent past.

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So what's the, what's the
temperature of the market?

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What's the the chatter around
the the conference?

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Who was telling you at the
moment?

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Look, Beaver Creek is a town, a
village that I joke to a few

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people.
I feel like I'm in Epcot,

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Switzerland, but there's a
sister village called Bachelor

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Gulch where a few of us were
staying.

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And basically across all of
these villages, there is a free

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shuttle that you can summon on
an app on your phone.

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I stress this into the way to
say that you are these

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locations, even though we're
offseason, are places that for

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an industry that destroys value
as much as it creates value, we

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really have no business holding
conferences there.

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And given it is the Beaver Creek
Precious Metal Summit and what I

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just said about these real
estate locations, you can

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imagine the cost.
I paid $7.00 for a club soda at

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3:00 PM in the Park High at
Lobby Bar in Beaver Creek.

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So maybe gold.
The gold price is telling,

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telling us something about
inflation.

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But more importantly, the best
way I can sum up sentiment is I

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heard no one complaining about
the cost of attending the

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conference at the Beaver Creek
Precious Metal Summit.

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Not a one.
How about the, the sort of sense

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of euphoria though, because I
was actually just chatting with

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someone from, from sort of
stateside before and their sort

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of commentary was that it wasn't
as frothy.

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You know, no one's, no one's
complaining about the gold

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price.
Everyone's chuffed and the

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producers are making money.
But that sense of euphoria, what

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was that sort of like there?
I think everyone say that

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they've seen bigger parties.
Do you have to remember with

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every cycle there's evolutions
of the sector, investors, you

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have new people, but you have
the memories of the last cycle.

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I don't know, I, I just, you
know, you guys know, I came into

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the business on the back of the
China super cycle some kind of

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used to having a realistic
realpolitik view of through

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cycle economics.
And you could just kind of see

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one of the metaphors I'm using
is out of 20 projects, one will

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make a pile of money, one will
return your capital, but not

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your time.
And 18 Belongs Somewhere and

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Dante's Inferno and you just
kind of felt that everyone felt

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the majority of projects were
going to be lovely.

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It's a weird feeling if you've
been through a cycle in our

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business before and it, but it's
a very precious metal specific

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thing.
And who knows, maybe this is a

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mega rewrite.
Maybe Tether is going to buy a

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year's worth of production.
It's all of their profits.

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I don't know.
But you can recognize when

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you're like, OK, this is a
little strange.

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There were there are two
specific yeah, things I wanted

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to tease out of you from from
Beaver Creek.

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One is I think you and I share a
a common view on the

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attractiveness of I am gold from
an acquisition perspective, you

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know, particularly Kotei and
obviously you know, the the West

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African masses need to be dealt
with.

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But but running into Beaver
Creek that you know, I'm gold

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had a tremendous run.
Did you get any sort of sense

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that there's going to be an
outcome if I am gold in the near

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future?
I think the base case was always

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that it was probably happening
in 12 months at the next Denver

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Gold Forum or some point in the
next 12 months.

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Maybe someone wants to get
proactive and come in earlier.

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But it seems like it's very
clear that the the senior gold

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producer of Canada is ready to
come over the top on anyone who

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wants to step foot in their
neighborhood.

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The question is when a. 100%.
Yeah, look and look, I kind of

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was seeing the way the stock was
trading throughout August post

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to two Q results and frankly
through September, there's no

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October Cote site visit.
He kind of looks around like, oh

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God, is someone actually going
to take a run at these guys and

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find a way to try to make it so
that Nico can't do the deal And

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it didn't have it.
Look, the exploration results

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were incredible, but that came
out on their Negel and and

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monster project.
But let's just call a spade a

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spade here.
It seems to me like Jackson

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Hole, where Powell signaled that
he was going to cut rates,

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supercharged this rally straight
into Denver gold.

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And you saw it in the what's the
joke?

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The first reaction to the feds,
the wrong reaction.

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First we popped, then we dropped
and I was like, OK, well, now

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what?
The EBITDA per ounce of some of

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these majors has been remarkably
consistent throughout the years.

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And now we look at it and you
take ASIC, you take Spot gold,

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and you go, all right, we have
2X the margin of these

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companies.
And the reality is, if gold's

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going to stay at the spot price,
that's telling you something

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about inflation, that's telling
you about where costs are going

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to go.
I mean if you're going to run

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SPA you should really run 3000
an ounce, not 3600 if you're

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trying to do a NAV analysis.
Yeah, I, I do.

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I do think everyone kind of
under, under appreciates the

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effect of inflation to what
margin of these like gold mines

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might be over time.
But having said that, everyone's

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running, not running a spot case
and no one's knowing deals based

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on a spot case.
Like the corporates have a have

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a fear of paying too much still.
And and they're all everyone's

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being conservative with a price
tag.

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But I think you've got to be
more aggressive on your price

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tag, but also much more
aggressive on your inflation

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expectations for costs in you
know in a sense too, which not

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nullifies the some of the price
upside.

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Absolutely.
I would just, I would just close

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off that point, Travis, though,
that everyone felt, you really

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felt that if you weren't in the
party, you were missing out

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there.
There was a FOMO dynamic that it

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was extremely unique and very
rare.

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And yeah.
FOMO drives deals mate.

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The other thing I wanted to ask
you about was I did notice your

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tweet.
When asked about your best ideas

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from Beaver Creek, you cited
McEwan and also Satin Metals.

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I was surprised to see Satin
there, but please, please

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elaborate on both.
On the first one, I think that

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sometimes the most beautiful
music and the most powerful

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speech is what's left unsaid.
And on Saturn, what I would say

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is it's a very fascinating
puzzle because it's a lower

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grade open pitiable and
apparently Heathleach will surf

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operation in WA and it's free
golden courts, but with no

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sulfides.
So you, you grind to a pulp,

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you'll Leech it and you sit
there and you go, OK, it's

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trading at one of those peanut
discounts where you go,

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someone's as smart as me or even
half as smart as me would have

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picked up on this at this point.
And the only excuse I'm able to

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get so far and I'm trying to
pull up all the metal and coal

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and flow she work I can on it is
Oh yeah, there's not a lot of

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heat bleachers in WA.
This is just isn't how WA the

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coal kilts work.
So still doing the work kicking

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the tires and we'll see we'll
see.

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But it just it jumped off the
pages.

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I went to the meeting very
explicitly just going your

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valuation implies there's a
critical problem here.

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And I came out of it going I got
to find the flaw on the

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flowsheet.
And if there's no flaw on the

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flowsheet, you Aussies are just
getting lazy.

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And given how much you Aussies
were willing to come all the way

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to Quebec for great lithium
discovery in the next green

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bushes less than five years ago,
I don't know you guys to be lazy

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when it comes to travelling
abroad.

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That's right in your backyard.
We're scared of, we're scared of

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heap leaches, that's for, for
sure.

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Even though we've got a
tremendous history of, of heap

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leach operations and, and yeah,
and this, this gold price you

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can, you can get away with a lot
more.

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And so I I do think if like all
else stays constant, certainly

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will get financed.
No, just you look at the call it

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the elevated gold price they use
in their deck for an updated NAV

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and it's it's a joke of a it's a
massive discount.

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It's a massive discount compared
to the actual Spot gold price.

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So even if you when you do the
haircuts, you go, OK, this

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thing's just things trading like
Northern Dynasty and you're

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like, is it Northern Dynasty?
No, just saying like it's

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trading one of those discounts
where you're like, there's got

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to be something wrong with it.
And so far I haven't found the

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flaw.
And I spent the whole meeting on

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that.
Like where do you find in a gold

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euphoria in a first world
jurisdiction 2 and a half

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million oz where there's a clear
line of sight to 3,000,000

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ounces of heap bleachable gold.
And by the way, lastly checked

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WA is a God damn desert.
Oh, I can't think of a better

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place to do a heap bleach
because I've seen them in Nevada

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and I've seen them in Arizona.
A desert to desert.

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The other thing with heap bleach
is mate is disappointing.

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They're not going to need Sandy
ground support.

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It must be one of the few gold
miners in the state in the

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country that wouldn't need Sandy
Ground support because we know

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00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,960
Sandy Ground Support supports
the entire gold industry in

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Australia right now.
Underground ones, yeah.

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Underground mines, Yeah.
And mate, we're getting to go

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out to the magnificent cute our
site where they imminent,

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imminent, imminent.
Hundreds of employees working

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day and night to keep the West
Australian gold industry

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fighting.
And we know they've got these

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manufacturing hubs all around
the world, so there's people in

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every kind of pocket of the
earth fighting to keep everyone

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going.
But we've got a gold mine,

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Peter, Base metal mine.
We got an e-mail from a base

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metal miner in North America
recently saying I love that

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00:12:14,680 --> 00:12:17,200
Sandvik sponsors you because we
use Sandvik ground support in

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our base metals mine.
So it's a global phenomenon,

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mate.
It is, and why not get on board

213
00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:23,640
and use the best ground support
in the industry?

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00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,160
Get in touch with Sandvik Ground
Support and put an order in

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00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,040
today, whether you want to do it
on the app or just give it.

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00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,080
Derek heard a call.
Details in the show notes.

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Mate Oats.
Mesh and all of the rest mate.

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Sandy Grassport.
Go Sandy, how is the temperature

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in uranium land when you when
you ventured over there a couple

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00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,520
of weeks ago, Obviously the the
big sort of shindig they've got

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every year.
Apparently we're going to build

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a lot of nuclear reactors.
I haven't seen an FID on any of

223
00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:56,160
them, but it's funny, like just
freestyle.

224
00:12:56,320 --> 00:13:00,200
I'm with you guys here.
You know how the IEA was talking

225
00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,440
about instead of talking about
how to balance energy markets,

226
00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:08,160
went to this whole how are we
going to net zero the energy

227
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,440
market from an emissions
perspective?

228
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,680
And now that I'm just woke up
and gone, OK, we kind of got

229
00:13:14,680 --> 00:13:20,320
ahead of ourselves.
I just see this whole, oh, we're

230
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:28,080
going to have this huge call on
nuclear demand growth and no

231
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:32,680
one's actually taking a step
back it seems like and gone, OK,

232
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:38,800
where's Vogel 5678 in Georgia,
who is actually, and I think

233
00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,880
actually I think it was chemical
CFO Grant Isaac.

234
00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,840
I heard the second third and
basically said this is the

235
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,280
industry where everyone wants to
be third.

236
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:47,880
They want to build the third
reactor.

237
00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:49,720
They don't want to build the 1st
or the 2nd.

238
00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:53,120
And I just think this is the,
the issue with nuclear right now

239
00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:57,920
is we know China's got the teams
building and everything, but

240
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:04,120
where is the Western will to
redevelop the skill and build

241
00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:09,280
these reactors and then give the
capital the return it needs to

242
00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,720
justify it.
So it's, it's fun.

243
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:18,200
We'll, we'll see, but.
Yeah, I mean if you.

244
00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:23,560
Lost raising piles of money and
the financial reactors humming

245
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,840
and yeah, it's don't really have
any involvement in that sector

246
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:29,280
right now.
In hindsight I should just about

247
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,880
cause Adam from in size and
never said a goddamn word about

248
00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,760
uranium ever again.
Yeah, it's, it's fascinating.

249
00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,400
I mean, to, to the point of
building the, the third reactor

250
00:14:38,400 --> 00:14:42,240
we've, we've seen the, the
first, if you like, reactors

251
00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:46,000
built in, in Vogel and in, in
the UK as well.

252
00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:50,600
And the, the bill that came back
was a bit bigger than most

253
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,560
people were expecting.
So maybe we're a bit traumatized

254
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:54,160
on that front.
Oh.

255
00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:59,360
I'm sorry, I mean, will you
actually get it back in all the

256
00:14:59,360 --> 00:15:01,920
cash flow?
I mean, what, when are we going

257
00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:07,160
to get a full payback on QB 2?
It's not like we know actually

258
00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:08,280
those of us have been around a
cycle.

259
00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,560
Realize that there's not a lot
of people I know actually to

260
00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,400
build these things right and
tight and on time.

261
00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:19,760
We'll have to keep waiting for
those unit SMRS to be firing out

262
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,920
the back of the factory.
But there are stories that we

263
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,040
all want to believe and we want
to believe the dream.

264
00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,400
And you're not going to convince
everyone, but like everyone's

265
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:33,480
convinced we're going to build
all these reactors totally there

266
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,960
for it.
But don't we see an FID or two I

267
00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:42,440
think?
Uranium is like one of the more

268
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,640
enticing kind of arts of the
market right now only because

269
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:51,080
like everyone's attention is in
precious and yeah, uranium is

270
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,640
like relatively quiet, even
though it's, you know, just full

271
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,760
of full of, you know, very
retail kind of sentiment crowd,

272
00:15:57,760 --> 00:15:59,160
but they're relatively quiet
right now.

273
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,120
So I'm like kind of just just
based on that somewhat drawn to,

274
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:07,920
to opportunities there.
I, I wonder if that's the mining

275
00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:09,960
kind of perspective though as
well, right?

276
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:13,720
Because if you come at it from
the tech slant and the people

277
00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,560
talking about data centers and
these types of things, they

278
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,960
still talk a fair bit about
getting the reactors to power.

279
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,200
The data Centers for the AI kind
of role that it's just us in, in

280
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,680
the mining world are a bit more
preoccupied with, with precious

281
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,120
metals at the minute.
Who knows?

282
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:29,520
It's it's hard to measure these
things.

283
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,520
Well, it's it's also a snap back
to reality if you've created an

284
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:36,640
app that has a marginal cost of
0 because just replicated in an

285
00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:39,320
App Store.
Call me up when Zuckerberg is

286
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,520
actually financing a nuclear
reactor.

287
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,360
Like we're just talking about a
different game here.

288
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,000
It's different ROYCS, it's a
different spreadsheet.

289
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:51,640
It's a different level of
complexity.

290
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:58,240
This doesn't code, this is
atoms, this is regulations, this

291
00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,080
is physical things.
It's not just the dopamine in

292
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:07,200
our heads anymore.
This is totally true, but I

293
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:11,640
would say the, the kind of circa
500 billion in CapEx that the

294
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,760
big tech group together is, is
spending.

295
00:17:15,319 --> 00:17:17,800
You know, had you said that five
years ago, that would have been

296
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,000
pretty jaw-dropping for, for
most people to try and take on

297
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,760
board that these guys would
collectively spend that much in,

298
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:25,920
in CapEx.
That's a a complete kind of

299
00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,120
dynamic change, don't you think?
Let's see what the return is on

300
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:31,040
it.
They're chasing a thematic

301
00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:33,600
Facebook.
I'm not arguing that it'll be a

302
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:34,640
good return.
Meta.

303
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:39,840
Meta used to be called Facebook.
Now Meta is going to be in AI.

304
00:17:40,360 --> 00:17:42,000
What are they?
What are we calling these super

305
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:43,720
cyclers?
Super adopters?

306
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:45,560
Super scaler?
Hyperscalers.

307
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,920
They're hyperscalers.
Hyperscalers.

308
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:52,280
I mean, at the end of the day,
The funny thing, The funny thing

309
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,920
is, just given where I'm going
tomorrow for a site visit, why

310
00:17:55,920 --> 00:18:01,160
couldn't we do solar with a
lithium ion battery and probably

311
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:07,600
undercut nuclear?
That's both a lithium and a

312
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:13,120
cesium plug.
We could unpack a whole nother

313
00:18:13,120 --> 00:18:18,080
debate there, but to move us on
to the track and that the topics

314
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,200
we wanted to unpack, the
frothiness in the market is

315
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,440
something that Trevor and I have
both noticed kind of

316
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:28,040
astoundingly in small sort of
pockets of of the market here.

317
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,240
It's been pretty astounding.
There's like some big pockets of

318
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,080
the market.
Well, it's very, it's very

319
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,840
fragmented, but in the.
You're an exploration neurology

320
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,080
play with something in the US
and if you're going to like if

321
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,880
you're just near a rare earth
thing.

322
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,880
Like, Oh my God, you, you're
near the White House and the and

323
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,960
the near the White House.
We ever but you've got a did we

324
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,800
ever an OTCUS listing like?
Did we ever actually see that

325
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:59,960
interview where Senator Burgum
actually said that Coliseum was

326
00:18:59,960 --> 00:19:05,840
a mission critical asset?
My first site visit was.

327
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,800
Astounded.
It's truly the greatest thing in

328
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,920
the world to watch right now.
Like, I'm sorry, that's amazing.

329
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,200
I'm breaking.
It's just it's so I'm not going

330
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,400
to.
We've got to play with.

331
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,080
Myself, I'm not.
Going to We've got to play the

332
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,280
Locksley video.
So you've got you've got, yeah,

333
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,600
obviously, like Dateline, a
billion dollar market cap.

334
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:31,040
Now lock Lockersley is like
3000% return on on neurology to

335
00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,120
to dateline and MP.
And did you see that?

336
00:19:33,120 --> 00:19:36,160
Did you catch the music video?
I'll snip it in now.

337
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,440
I'll play, play with.
That you sent I I don't know

338
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,360
Locksley.
So educate me guys.

339
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,640
I'm prepared on the others, but
educate me.

340
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,200
I don't.
I don't have much to add here

341
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,760
other than this.
It's like, I could talk about

342
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:51,640
the project, but we're not going
to be talking about much, right?

343
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,400
We're just like, this is, it's
just like meme stock.

344
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:56,080
This is meme stock stuff.
This is, you know, retail mania.

345
00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:00,280
Every announcement is a map and
on one side you've got Dateline,

346
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,440
you know, Tenement on one side
and then the other side you've

347
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:04,240
got Mountain Pass.
That's all you need to know

348
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,560
about it.
And there's no better time to

349
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,400
play the the latest music video
from this company.

350
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,320
The in the ground are Rees next
door Locksley and Mojave

351
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,120
bringing you more America needs
to fly yo the time is now.

352
00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,560
Mind the market LKY show you
have Mojave corporador rapping

353
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,360
with the beat right next to MP
America needs to fly.

354
00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:29,760
Don't front, don't wait.
Locksley's got the key trying to

355
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:31,960
feed the whole state.
We got what's underneath got

356
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,120
antimony and we be carrying the
heat.

357
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,920
We got what's best for the
future and stacked with Reese

358
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,000
and we always playing it clean
rice on the tech new process

359
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,640
brand new something that has
never been done or seen yo

360
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,360
government where you at time to
step You want sovereignty.

361
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,360
Well, this is the sign to step
aside.

362
00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:50,120
Well, we work hard under this
heat.

363
00:20:50,120 --> 00:20:54,040
We keep it on shore.
Locksley got the medals and we

364
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:55,760
bring in you more.
Hilarious.

365
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,640
Yeah, it's a bull market.
This is this is big bull market

366
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,200
behavior.
I almost like I'm just tempted

367
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,360
to, to, to, to sell like, yeah,
most of My Portfolio and just

368
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:09,400
like leave, leave whatever I've
got left in just the dumbest

369
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,120
stuff possible because it's,
it's like you don't get rewarded

370
00:21:12,120 --> 00:21:15,320
for being smart in this market.
We never actually spoke too much

371
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:19,520
about it, but like just for a
second on the MP materials deal,

372
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,240
Koala, like how did you sort of
think about the, the structure?

373
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,600
And you know, you, you sort of
base yourself in a different

374
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,920
part of the world to, to ask
what is the, what was the, the

375
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:36,440
feeling around that deal?
The US has decided to play by

376
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,440
China's rules.
I think it's a good industrial

377
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,000
policy.
If I could change anything as I

378
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,560
understand the deal, the one
thing I would change is I would

379
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,880
not have made it a financial
backstop where if MP sells their

380
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,440
NDPR products for 90 they get a
check for 20 to true it up to

381
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,440
110.
I would have done it as a

382
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:04,200
minimum physical offtake where
if you can't sell it for that

383
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:08,040
number, you can sell it to us,
the US government, and I would

384
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:14,720
have created a stockpile.
I think it has totally

385
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,120
revolutionized how we think
about strategic minerals.

386
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:23,760
I think unfortunately also it
has inspired greed, where

387
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:29,120
prudence should always still
have a seat at the table in

388
00:22:29,120 --> 00:22:36,760
multiple of these situations.
But it's a good deal.

389
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,000
I think there will be more of
them.

390
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,160
I think you're right.
I think you're right.

391
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,920
Should we should we unpack the
the Anglo tech deal now?

392
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,800
I'm curious to sorry.
More of them in in dateline.

393
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,720
Surely you know I'm sorry are.
We going How are we?

394
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:54,720
Going we know how the story.
Is.

395
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:57,320
Are we going to?
Are we in touch on the other

396
00:22:57,360 --> 00:23:01,840
speculative frost or not?
Oh, you want to talk about the

397
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:03,760
the scandium one?
Well, this is this is

398
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,880
interesting.
I'm like, my God, like we don't

399
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,040
know how small the scandium
market is, but but you put

400
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,600
Friedland behind something and
there's just a rocket ship and

401
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,440
then Friedland's rocket ship
back solves the value because

402
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,200
then you get the US government
involved as well.

403
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,880
It marries up plenty of parts of
the conversation we're going to

404
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:27,040
have today, right?
In so many ways, Jonas, in so,

405
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:34,120
so many ways.
Look, here's the conundrum.

406
00:23:36,120 --> 00:23:40,960
The lead times to get scandium
into, and it is an absolutely

407
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:44,280
miracle metal.
You adopt it in alloys.

408
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:48,680
You put it in Bloom Energy Bloom
boxes and you can see what the

409
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,960
BE is the ticker in the US, you
can see how that stocks doing.

410
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:56,080
They need scandium oxide in
their boxes and they're probably

411
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,360
the biggest consumer of scandium
right now in the Western world.

412
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,600
I look at all of this and
there's a clear case for

413
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:09,880
Westerns like scandium boom.
The problem is the chicken and

414
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,760
egg.
It always has been that you need

415
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:19,160
the security of supply at a
price, but no one wants to do

416
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:23,480
the R&D and the certification at
Airbus or Boeing to then

417
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,040
incorporate it if they don't
know they can actually get the

418
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:34,160
material.
With that said, Sunrise it, it

419
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,320
has some very nice high grades.
There's a 600 gram per ton cut

420
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:38,680
off.
There's a 300 gram per ton cut

421
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,240
off.
Without getting into the like

422
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:47,200
look, Burra next door, Ningan
right up the road, 155g per ton

423
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,640
cut off the 300 gram per ton at
sunrise is about a 470 from

424
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,880
memory.
Gram per ton and reserve about

425
00:24:54,880 --> 00:25:00,480
1.7 million tons.
Ningen's 4/10 at 1.4.

426
00:25:01,120 --> 00:25:06,320
Look, if we're actually going to
scandium those assets in the

427
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:15,960
what I'll call the Fifield Dubbo
Ningen belt and provide the next

428
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,880
century of scandium for the
Western world.

429
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:24,400
But it realistically it's going
to require government support so

430
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:31,040
that the consumers understand
that the supply will be there

431
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,200
and are therefore willing to pay
the price.

432
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,520
That will incentivize the
private capital to build those

433
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,520
assets.
But having walked around a few

434
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:50,120
cattle paddocks two hours drive
outside of Dubbo, these things

435
00:25:50,120 --> 00:25:57,160
are going to be really easy to
build once the policy is there.

436
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,560
Simple as that.
I feel like there's this

437
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,720
disconnect between like, you
know, what, what, what, what

438
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,760
equity investors should expect
versus like the like, there's

439
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,880
always like euphoria at the
moment because governments

440
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:13,200
suddenly kind of may be
potentially underpinning the

441
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,600
economics for equity holders.
But I just don't like, I don't

442
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:17,200
have the same level of
confidence that it works out

443
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:18,960
that way for equity holders.
Like you.

444
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,360
Sure.
You just you bring on new supply

445
00:26:21,360 --> 00:26:26,400
into a small market.
Look, NIO Corp with Elk Creek

446
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,840
has raised over $100 million of
fresh capital in the last four

447
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:36,960
months on SRL.
Sunrise is roofed, for lack of a

448
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,000
better term.
It's if you can create pizzazz,

449
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,200
you can create stories.
At the end of the day, the way

450
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,960
our industry, and this is
something I've been workshopping

451
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:51,680
and I'll share it with you guys,
is because tech every cycle

452
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,200
creates incredible amounts of
value and wealth.

453
00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:01,560
People stay in the sector.
So with every passing cycle in

454
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:08,720
technology, the average IQ, the
median IQ actually gets higher.

455
00:27:10,360 --> 00:27:15,400
In our industry, with every
cycle, there's about a base of

456
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:21,040
specialists, and at the peak of
the cycle, 5 to 10 X of the

457
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,280
specialists are generalists in
their first cycle, and they even

458
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:28,000
get washed out.
A few stay around as

459
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,360
specialists.
But the reality is, if you think

460
00:27:31,360 --> 00:27:38,840
about the what I'll call the
historical IQ and trauma of the

461
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,760
investors in our site, in our
sector, at the bottom of the

462
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:46,760
cycle, it's just guys like you
and me at the top.

463
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:52,120
Our capital is dwarfed by people
who think they know so much more

464
00:27:52,120 --> 00:27:55,720
than us but have not seen a
cycle before.

465
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,040
And they'll if they get burnt,
they'll never come back again.

466
00:28:00,120 --> 00:28:03,080
So it's really like almost
looking at shell decline curves.

467
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:11,480
So you have this small base of
investors and on top of it,

468
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,600
people with so much more capital
when our sector gets going, but

469
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,400
they don't want to listen.
Or I'd say there's a hubris.

470
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,680
There's an actual hubris.
It's it's something fascinating

471
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,400
to to think about.
I, I can't help but think about

472
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,880
how interest rates and, and the
like over the last 15 plus years

473
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:34,120
have have distorted those, those
cycles with just, you know, a 0

474
00:28:34,120 --> 00:28:39,320
interest rate policy for, for 9A
decade and stuff has pushed the,

475
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,920
the kind of classical cycle
completely out of whack to the

476
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,760
advantage of, of, of tech and,
and the like.

477
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaking of tech, shall we?
Let's jump in.

478
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,120
What's your what's your first
past thoughts?

479
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,360
Why not just do the joint
venture?

480
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,760
How screwed is QB 2 that they
feel compelled to do this deal?

481
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:06,520
And what compelled Anglo to do
this deal?

482
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:12,720
Why couldn't Duncan, Jonathan
and Gary just got in the room

483
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,320
and agreed on the QB 2 colossi
joint venture?

484
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:20,880
Why is the fact of course that
we don't yet know how much

485
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:27,720
capital and what is need to be
done for QB 2:00 to be finished

486
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:32,240
for lack of a better work or
reach scoped.

487
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,520
I mean if I was if I was Gary
and from my voice you can tell

488
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:40,080
I'm not.
My big question when it comes

489
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,360
time for the joint venture
conversations going to be well

490
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:50,000
as QB 2 performed, has it hit a
budget or hit a operating plan

491
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:55,160
at all because I'm 44 of Colossi
Mitsui's 12 Mitsui's Natsumi

492
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,880
Tomo, the text partner at QB 2.
So how do we know what the NAV

493
00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:03,400
split should be on this joint
venture until we see how QB 2

494
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,560
performs?
So it it it's missed multiple

495
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,360
budgets.
And that's why I kind of keep

496
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:16,080
coming back to this thought that
that it feels like this is a

497
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:24,240
merger of panic on both sides
because Manglo I speculating

498
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:28,760
completely, but probably felt
like they had to do something or

499
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:34,680
it was ERB and Tech.
I mean, Danny Mulchuk was added

500
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,440
as a special advisor a week
before this deal.

501
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:45,560
And it sounds like QB 2 actually
third quarter 2025 results for

502
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,680
Tech are going to be must watch
must must listen conference call

503
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,840
because tell us again what the
new number is to get QB 2 to

504
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,160
spec.
And I empathize with Jonathan.

505
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:01,120
This was not his project.
He got brought in as CFO and

506
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,920
heir apparent Don Lindsay.
Don Lindsay's only agreeing with

507
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:10,200
this project.
And I think his one mistake in

508
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:14,480
all of this is that he didn't
stand up to the board when

509
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:16,640
Glencore came knocking.
He should have said let's just

510
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,840
do the deal.
But I also then have to say, you

511
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,080
look at where tech stands today
and because of the coal price

512
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,360
where Glencore is, that looks
like a smart move.

513
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:32,280
But at the end of the day, this
is, I mean, the Bloomberg

514
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,720
article about how this all came
together a day after it got

515
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:40,080
announced openly said Keevil
made it clear that he would not

516
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:44,880
approve any deal that didn't
involve Tech being head court.

517
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,160
The surviving company being
headquartered in Canada.

518
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:53,680
Which for a company that has OK
Trail, Trail, which is their

519
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:57,680
smelter in Canada for zinc, plus
Red Dog, which is going to hit a

520
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,800
wall in about 5 years because
they haven't gotten a deal to do

521
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,640
the expansions and the
brownfield.

522
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,120
The zinc business of tech is
maybe worth a billion, $2

523
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:11,760
billion, reflecting the fact
that Trail a zinc smelter that's

524
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,080
been around for decades in
Canada.

525
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:16,880
No one's buying that in and of
itself.

526
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:23,400
So the only actual naive of
value in Canada is Highland

527
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:31,680
Valley, which isn't that great.
So the audacity to have a

528
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:36,720
company called Self a Canadian
champion after they sold their

529
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:41,480
Canadian crown jewels to
Glencore with who their chairman

530
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:49,280
emeritus crucified in the press.
Like there's a lack of

531
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,240
self-awareness about what this
company is.

532
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:54,360
And that's why I joked if I was
the Chileans, I would say.

533
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,240
I mean, you could, I would just,
you could say the same about

534
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,080
like angle your headquarters in
London.

535
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,960
You, you, you know what I mean?
Like there's I, I and like

536
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,040
whether cable demanded that or
not, you can the Canadian

537
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,560
government was going to to have
like more onerous demands about

538
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,440
sure about the commitments to
Canada.

539
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:12,680
The reason, but the reason the
Canadian government has these

540
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,680
demands is because of what Cable
said with Glencore Tech in 2023.

541
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:23,640
And yet they let like by the
crown jewels of tech tech is

542
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,360
not, and this is your headline
for the tech is not a Canadian

543
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,200
company.
It's a Chilean company.

544
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:34,600
It's a South American company.
And you know, we can also say

545
00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:37,320
this for the Lundin Mining or
Lundin Gold.

546
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:42,280
They have offices in Vancouver.
But if I'm the Chileans, I'd be

547
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,560
looking around going, hey, QB 2
Colossi Los Brances with the

548
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:50,200
Andina joint venture.
Hey, guys, Angle, you have a big

549
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:52,160
offset.
Why isn't Santiago the

550
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:59,160
headquarters of Anglo Tech?
If we're going to get

551
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:03,040
nationalist, If we're going to
get nationalist, let's talk.

552
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,240
Let's really get into it.
So well, look that.

553
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:08,639
That was.
That was one of the defining.

554
00:34:08,639 --> 00:34:10,760
You could say that for Rio
Tinto.

555
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:12,120
You could say that for so many
companies.

556
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:15,199
Yeah, yes, I and I, I agree with
you like.

557
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:16,679
For nothing.
Not for nothing, guys.

558
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,080
On Rio.
On Rio between the Brits and

559
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:24,080
your country folk you without
getting into all the nuances of

560
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:28,960
Shukin Gorge, you guys ran out
of town a French CEO who created

561
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,400
a ton of value at Rio by not
buying copper and just buying

562
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,000
back stock when everyone thought
can set aside or was 50-60 bucks

563
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,960
it all of this.
It's, I'm just saying it's a,

564
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,159
it's a crazy little nuance of
all of this.

565
00:34:46,159 --> 00:34:51,360
But look, I think if I had to
say, it's clear, no one's coming

566
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,320
for Tech.
I think Tech shareholders have

567
00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:58,120
to decide if they want to do a
deal now or they want to wait

568
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,800
till 2029 when Keeble has no say
anymore.

569
00:35:01,720 --> 00:35:05,400
And I think if you're a Tech
shareholder, obviously you can

570
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:09,800
vote by just selling your stock,
but it's a function of you need

571
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,280
to see what this QB 2 update and
plan looks like and how

572
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:16,600
confident you are.
If it looks really messy, you

573
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:18,520
are going to go, yeah, let's do
a deal.

574
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:24,320
But if you're an Anglo
shareholder, you're going to be

575
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:30,760
very curious how much QB 2 is
going to cost to get to plan.

576
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:37,240
And you're also then going to, I
struggle to get to all the

577
00:35:37,240 --> 00:35:39,320
valuations.
I know copper trades at a

578
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,040
pureplay.
But if this deal all does come

579
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,320
together, I think if I know
until Roper shows up, it'll show

580
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,560
up on the Anglo side.
I think the valuations of these,

581
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,640
both of these companies, I think
if you're the BHP or the Rio

582
00:35:54,240 --> 00:35:59,560
boards, it's really hard to
justify paying these numbers,

583
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,720
which is why if I had to come in
all together, I think this Gary

584
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:07,080
will extract a pound of flesh
for the joint venture to

585
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:11,520
actually happen at Colossi.
If this deal does happen, I

586
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:15,040
think this combined company is
probably going to become a new

587
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,400
Antifedasta.
And by that I mean probably

588
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:24,120
becomes a funding short for a
lot of folks because, yeah, we

589
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,240
then have to take the risk of QB
2 plus the joint venture

590
00:36:27,240 --> 00:36:29,880
integration.
Because the reason the stocks

591
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:34,680
went up on the deal is it's all
about QB 2 Colossi, which is why

592
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,720
I keep going back to, if we all
were rational and we're all

593
00:36:37,720 --> 00:36:42,160
thoughtful here, this should
have been just the QB 2 Colossi

594
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:45,800
joint venture the way Mark
Bristow and Gary Goldberg did

595
00:36:46,720 --> 00:36:50,120
the Nevada Gold Mines joint
venture several years ago.

596
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:56,600
But if you take QB Two out of an
operating asset of Tech and you

597
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,640
put it into a joint venture, you
have an existential crisis in

598
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:10,140
Vancouver about what is Tech
Metals, Which is to say there's

599
00:37:10,140 --> 00:37:14,680
ego in history.
For, for for sure.

600
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:17,080
So like on the, on the tech
side, you've got a big funding

601
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:19,560
issue that you're coming across
now.

602
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,280
I'm, I'm sure, I'm sure Anglo
has been shared with enough

603
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,840
information to form a view on
what that funding gap does look

604
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,680
like.
Enough of them to have a degree

605
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:32,480
of confidence to pay a $4.9
billion special dividend to

606
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:34,920
shareholders pre pre deal
completion themselves.

607
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,280
But but like.
So I'm curious why you think

608
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,480
that that an intellect will show
up on the Anglo side when on the

609
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:46,160
tech side you have a?
You need a 66.6% threshold on

610
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:51,120
both the A&B class shares to
prevent a deal here, and

611
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,200
presumably the funding gap on
the tech side could be an

612
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,760
attractive angle for an for an
interloper who has a lower cost

613
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:04,840
of capital to to get involved.
If I ran BHP, which I never will

614
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,600
and I was looking at this, I
would say OK, even if the PB two

615
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:14,520
took 5 billion more dollars, I
can handle that like to get to

616
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:21,440
the promised land.
But I look at Anglo's portfolio,

617
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:28,840
Colossi, Cola that go you have
the Bronsis and Dina with all

618
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:35,760
those synergies.
You have Ministrio like you have

619
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,920
all assets, you have multiple
assets.

620
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:43,960
I I would generally want, I
would love to have 42% of

621
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:48,520
Phantomina, but it's not
operating UB 2.

622
00:38:50,720 --> 00:39:03,080
I can fund the fix, but at what
social cost of Vancouver do I

623
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:08,640
have to move everyone there like
and then red dog, how do you

624
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,800
unlock the value there cap?
Can you inherit that situation?

625
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,640
It's just a, it's a, it's just a
trickier situation.

626
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:22,320
And ideally eventually this QB 2
colossal joint venture should

627
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,840
happen.
And by the way, in three years,

628
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:29,160
which as much as we look at our
PNL's every day, we look at our

629
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:34,320
annual returns, three years is a
split second in our industry.

630
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,600
You Fast forward three years,
tech would be a sitting duck.

631
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,080
So I don't have to deal with
tech now?

632
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:52,200
With all that kind of said, the
the share price of Anglo since

633
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,760
the BHB deal hasn't hasn't sort
of performed despite them sort

634
00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:00,160
of making steps towards carving
up the business in like that

635
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,360
sort of broke out.
But the multiples expanded

636
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:07,920
massively.
They've pre pre the pre

637
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:13,480
announcement BHP was 2150 in
London and glow was like 2222.

638
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:18,760
1/2 angle went to 25, BHP went
down to 20 because people

639
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:21,840
wanting BHP is going to come
over you back up.

640
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:26,400
The special dividend angler goes
back to sub 22.

641
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,400
That's 1.10.
I mean, what was the proposal

642
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:35,320
for at the time it was .89 plus
the Spinco share.

643
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,160
So we could back out Kumba in
there as well.

644
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:45,640
But that's I'm sure BHP is going
to have that conversation.

645
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:51,080
And if I had my druthers, I
think BHP should have a very

646
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,200
serious conversation about do
you buy Anglo?

647
00:40:53,720 --> 00:40:57,200
And you say we're going to let
Escondida gracefully, gracefully

648
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,160
go into middle age with two
concentrators, not 3.

649
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:02,600
Even if it takes it higher up
the cost curve, because

650
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,560
ironically that would probably
create the copper super cycle

651
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:07,200
that would pay for the whole
deal.

652
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,240
And then you do the third
concentrator in 10 years.

653
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,880
But that's great spreadsheet
math.

654
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:16,040
I'm not sure if it's socially
palatable.

655
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,920
All righty.
I reckon we, we, so we, we moved

656
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:25,200
to our, our grade control
quality.

657
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,400
This might be your first time
joining us for, for grade

658
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,680
control, but you know, I trust
you, you understand the concept.

659
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,240
We're just going to run through
a couple of a couple of yeah,

660
00:41:34,240 --> 00:41:37,760
corporate things that we've seen
throughout the the week and and

661
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,640
give them a grade of A to F It's
better to kick us off.

662
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,640
All righty, let's let's do it.
So first story is the US

663
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:47,120
International Development
Finance Court looking to

664
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:52,640
establish a up to $5 billion
joint venture fund with Orion.

665
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:56,640
So both parties here would be
contributing an equal share over

666
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,360
time, like I said, sort of
scaling up and all these sort of

667
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,480
buzzwords that we've seen for a
long time now, critical minerals

668
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,760
focus aimed at reducing supply
anxiety.

669
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:09,280
You know, China, the elephant in
the room there also with sort of

670
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,800
similar structure to a deal that
Orion did with the Abu Dhabi

671
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:17,240
sovereign fund not too long ago.
I, I found, I'm not sure about

672
00:42:17,240 --> 00:42:20,600
you guys, surprisingly little
coverage of this given the

673
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,000
context of what we've been
talking about with sort of

674
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:27,440
government influence lately.
But a, a fund of this sort of

675
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:32,360
size would be the, the largest
type structure and, and

676
00:42:33,240 --> 00:42:36,120
investment unit that we've seen
in the mining space in, in quite

677
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:39,760
a while.
So the, the, the wording around

678
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:43,640
it sort of it made you think of
it as another kind of arm for

679
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:47,400
the US government to do deals in
the metal space and, and large

680
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:51,440
scale deals at that.
So I will be super curious to

681
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,000
see the the deal structure kind
of like you touched on before

682
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:58,920
with, with MP materials there.
Koala, if, if we're just talking

683
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:02,160
plain vanilla equity stakes,
project stakes, these sorts of

684
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:07,200
things, it kind of leaves a bit
to be desired in my eyes because

685
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:12,880
you need to leave the incentives
in the West sort of strong.

686
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:17,480
Like we, we don't want to end up
in a place where it's completely

687
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:21,720
kind of China ish with state
owned entities and the like.

688
00:43:21,720 --> 00:43:24,280
I think that's the the real risk
of of disruption.

689
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:27,720
So As for rating, I'll, I'll
track AB to this one for the

690
00:43:27,720 --> 00:43:29,960
ambition, because obviously
we're just, we're just talking

691
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:31,680
about something here.
And I think the eventual

692
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,280
structure that it takes is is
super vital.

693
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:43,760
Koala, over to you.
Emailing us, we need this fund

694
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:49,200
and I have a ton of respect for
Oscar, Dominic Estevan and the

695
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:56,600
team at Orion, but the US
government is not going to put

696
00:43:56,600 --> 00:44:01,680
money into a fund like this to
make 12 to 15% or on the great

697
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:06,240
deal of 20% IRR.
They're doing this to rebuild a

698
00:44:06,240 --> 00:44:12,960
supply chain and structure and
structuring and credit expertise

699
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:22,120
is not where you go find your GP
skills for what you're trying to

700
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:24,440
accomplish.
You need more equity,

701
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:31,400
operational venture capital.
I will say I would feel so much

702
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:36,920
better if I saw that Friedland,
the Ivanhoe Group or the Lindeen

703
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:41,320
Group, we're going to be the
peas on this because that would

704
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:45,840
be a we're not trying to
structure that get a royalty and

705
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:49,120
off day go be like, no, we're
going to go find great new

706
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:51,200
deposits.
We're going to build it mines.

707
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,560
Maybe G might be involved here
to build stuff just to pick a

708
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:59,560
name or frankly, if you're to
operate stuff better, it's like,

709
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,520
I mean, Matt Copper's closing in
a month.

710
00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:08,200
Go get Mick McMullen, get an
operator who's provenly made

711
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:12,200
money and say so.
That's the one constructive that

712
00:45:12,720 --> 00:45:17,720
Orion has built an incredible
business protecting the downside

713
00:45:17,720 --> 00:45:21,240
and structuring.
But being AGP for the US

714
00:45:21,240 --> 00:45:27,440
government is not just about
protect the downside.

715
00:45:28,720 --> 00:45:31,760
You can do that anyway just
cause of what your capital is.

716
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:38,360
It's can you drive?
Can you make the mine that is

717
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:43,560
tier 3, tier 1.5 through great
operational skill set.

718
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,480
So that's where I'm rambling
here, but it's a great idea.

719
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:55,640
I would I'd rake in it rated an
A if I knew that it wasn't Orion

720
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:58,840
just as the GP and you're like,
we have great operators coming

721
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:03,160
alongside us.
That's the nuance to this.

722
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:09,960
I give it a ABI think like at
least Orion's better equipped to

723
00:46:11,240 --> 00:46:15,640
make positive capital allocation
decisions in the sector than

724
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,400
bureaucrats.
But and I don't think this will

725
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:20,440
be the last, the last
partnership of the sort that we

726
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,520
see between private equity
established private equity

727
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,240
groups and and governments.
And I think we'll see quite.

728
00:46:25,240 --> 00:46:29,600
A few and by the way, if Dominic
or anyone hears this, all I'm

729
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,640
saying is shows who your
operators are going to be

730
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:38,080
because you've built a franchise
that can actually partner with

731
00:46:38,080 --> 00:46:44,800
the US government, but you do
some things incredibly well.

732
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:50,000
But if you tell the US
government you can make a 5%

733
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,240
IRR, but you can build a
critical mineral supply chain

734
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:59,360
for the next 50 years or you can
make 15% but not create that

735
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,360
supply chain and we still have a
China dependency. the US

736
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:06,720
government at a certain for
certain other agendas is not

737
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,440
profit maximizing.
They're geopolitically

738
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:15,240
maximizing optionality.
I totally agree that disconnect

739
00:47:15,240 --> 00:47:20,400
between the, the, the strategic
interest and a credit, a credit

740
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:24,520
return interest, like you can't
quite reconcile them yet.

741
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,560
There's a lot to play out there,
but we'll move on to the next

742
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,760
one.
We found out news that Qatar,

743
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,920
Qatar sovereign wealth fund QIA
is putting 500 million U.S.

744
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:37,800
dollars into Ivanhoe mines for a
4% stake at $12.00 Canadian a

745
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:39,760
share.
And the funds are earmarked to

746
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:44,760
support Ivanhoe's expiration big
and their, you know, endeavours

747
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:50,280
to continue to grow into both
Africa and, and parts of Asia

748
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:52,720
with.
Yeah, there's, there's a bit of

749
00:47:52,720 --> 00:47:54,200
at least you didn't see this one
coming.

750
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:56,520
We didn't see this one coming.
It's a big deal.

751
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:58,120
It's a big deal.
It's a big new shareholder.

752
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,960
I'll give this one, I'll give
this one an, A yeah.

753
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:08,960
I, I mean, we had, we had Willow
on a couple weeks ago and he

754
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:12,960
talked about this, this theme
of, of a multipolar world and to

755
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:14,760
have, you know, having these
kind of like sovereign sources

756
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,640
of capital really coming into
the sector.

757
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:18,720
They've got much lower cost of
capital.

758
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:23,640
And and I, I just, I just see
this, this investment from QIA

759
00:48:24,240 --> 00:48:28,280
as as kind of like lighting a
fire under the optionality that

760
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:31,440
Friedland has with Ivanhoe.
This one's absolutely an AI.

761
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,160
Think there was a couple
question marks out there about

762
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:37,600
the, the the discount, but like
Friedland's is the the master of

763
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:41,120
his register.
There's 45 ish percent in in

764
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:45,120
three hands, which he's
obviously very close with 4%

765
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,120
dilution.
Not massive in the scheme of

766
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:50,720
things with obviously the
challenges they've had in in

767
00:48:50,720 --> 00:48:53,560
recent times, as well as just
sort of pulling capital out of

768
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,240
parts of the world that
historically haven't been

769
00:48:56,240 --> 00:48:59,080
massive financiers of of mining
projects.

770
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:04,160
How about you?
This is a name everyone Kukula

771
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:08,240
2627 guide, and now it doesn't
really matter.

772
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,120
Robert at the core, besides
being one of the most brilliant

773
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,720
people in the industry, is one
of the best people.

774
00:49:16,720 --> 00:49:25,200
People in the world is not going
to do this deal with the Qataris

775
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,480
and then embarrass them with the
guidance.

776
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:38,040
Now when we look at the guide
when it comes, even if free cash

777
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:41,840
flow isn't quite what we want it
to be in 2026 and the

778
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:48,920
inflections in 2027, he's
injected incredible capital into

779
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:54,960
the business.
So what, it doesn't matter

780
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:58,640
anymore.
And there's so much optionality

781
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:04,920
in the portfolio at Ivanhoe that
whether it's the Western 4 lands

782
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,480
or the stuff in Kazakhstan,
which they did a news release on

783
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:13,600
a couple weeks ago, frankly, I
think they could have been more

784
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,000
bullish.
That's just me, Ding, Ding,

785
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:20,600
Ding.
But I would say that the one

786
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:25,080
surprise here, it's the Qataris,
not the Saudis, but a + a plus

787
00:50:25,080 --> 00:50:28,720
all around.
Clean sweep of days there.

788
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:33,440
Next next story guys is BHB and
this one sort of broadened out

789
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:38,680
with Anglos decision, but they
are shutting down Soraji in in

790
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:44,800
the bomb basin, Soraji South 750
jobs going from BHP as well as

791
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:48,320
making the threat of shutting
down their trading training

792
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,960
Academy.
And then you sort of see within

793
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,200
about 5 minutes angler come out
and make a call that sort of

794
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:58,040
roughly 200 jobs will
unfortunately go as well as a

795
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:03,720
rapper with royalties, local
prices and and the like there

796
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:08,640
in, in Queensland.
So yeah, a lot of politicking

797
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,440
with, with this one with, with
BHB, obviously they're, they're

798
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:15,360
playing real hardball.
We sort of saw the comments from

799
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:19,960
Mike Henry really highlighting
how if you, if you chop away

800
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,680
the, the couple good years of
returns that you get in the

801
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,320
mining industry every every
decade and it's not worth

802
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:29,880
ritting your teeth through the
other 6-7 years of the of the

803
00:51:29,880 --> 00:51:33,120
kind of cycle.
Who are we scoring incredibly?

804
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,000
Are we scoring on this?
By the way, are we scoring BA?

805
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,120
We scoring the policy or like
what?

806
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,520
Who are we scoring here?
I'm gonna I'm gonna score the

807
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:44,400
politicians because.
Take it any take it any which

808
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:49,680
way you like and yeah, not to
not to be, you know, super

809
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,200
political because I think it's
across the board.

810
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:55,560
I think it's it's bipartisan and
it's it's a day because one

811
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:59,400
party brings it in, the other
party is, you know, happy in

812
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:00,920
quotation marks to keep the
policies.

813
00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,760
So it's a day on that part.
And there just needs to be a lot

814
00:52:03,760 --> 00:52:06,480
of understanding and how
commodity cycles work.

815
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:10,200
And yeah, it just goes to show
how hard cutting out costs of of

816
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,040
government are once they're sort
of bedded in.

817
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:16,360
What are your thoughts?
I would pay for the Olympics

818
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:19,040
somehow.
The question is, are you going

819
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,320
to still be in power when they
come to town?

820
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,280
Look, when was Paul Flynn's
line?

821
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,840
It's like it's crazy.
We have $200 coal and no one's

822
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:33,520
making money in QLD.
Yeah, people.

823
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:35,760
People 10 years ago would have
crawled over broken glass for

824
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:42,040
$200 met coal.
I think what PHP is doing is

825
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:46,480
being sensible.
It doesn't look like from the

826
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:50,680
work I've done in the last year
or two, it doesn't look like

827
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:57,200
it's that many tons.
What I do think it kind of sets

828
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:01,600
off now is a conversation that
probably will take several

829
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,280
years, probably two or three
years.

830
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:08,800
And you have the Brisbane
Olympics and was at 32 looming

831
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:14,120
over it, which is at some point
these royalties have to be

832
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:18,600
changed.
And in all likelihood there's a

833
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:27,120
lot more pain to come in
Queensland before those royalty

834
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:35,040
changes are made.
So BHP gets an A in my book,

835
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:43,600
Queensland gets an F.
And I would say Gary when he's

836
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:47,720
going there trying to solve them
out nicer smelter problem and

837
00:53:47,720 --> 00:53:51,640
look at them and say I haven't
shut down a coal mine

838
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,560
voluntarily.
I've done it because my

839
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,080
investors told me I had to get
net zero.

840
00:53:57,320 --> 00:54:01,400
Well, it's just a real tragedy
that Queensland has kind of put

841
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:07,520
a self licked wound with a cash
grab at the time and look it, it

842
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:11,720
is what it is.
I I don't take pleasure in this,

843
00:54:11,720 --> 00:54:15,560
even though the royalties in
Queensland have reset the cost

844
00:54:15,560 --> 00:54:19,760
curve in a way that has made
profits for Canadian, US, other

845
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:23,760
coal met coal producers
incredibly compelling.

846
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:28,640
Yeah, capital is mobile.
This is an easy F because

847
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,040
there's a massive, massive
cognitive dissonance with

848
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,320
politicians who don't understand
that capital is mobile.

849
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,480
That exact point.
There's like you think, you

850
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:40,200
think you can, you can just
erode the entire economics of,

851
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,640
of, of capital intensive assets
and the capital continues to

852
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:45,880
flow into them.
It's not how it works.

853
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,520
If after the politicians for,
for just like, you know,

854
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:51,320
thinking that's how economics
works.

855
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:56,680
It doesn't to your point on, on,
on, on, there's a, on, there's a

856
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:58,440
multi year conversation about
these royalties.

857
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,800
I think that's been happening.
Like I, I, I do think I don't

858
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:06,120
think this is actually a very
interesting moment that's being

859
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,840
exacerbated.
And there's like a lot of a lot

860
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:10,840
of like light on these royalties
right now.

861
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,560
And it's building and it's
building, but no one's really

862
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,800
paying attention in our sector
because everyone's just focused

863
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:17,400
on gold.
But what happens to what happens

864
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:21,040
to the some of the equities if
there's a meaningful change in

865
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:22,800
those royalties in the next,
next 12 months?

866
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:26,280
Like I, I think the probability
of that is not baked in, but I

867
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:29,920
do think there's a, a higher, a
higher probability than than

868
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:31,280
he's been back into some of
those prices.

869
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,760
I think the probability.
I think the probability that

870
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:36,680
everyone's assigning to it after
the last 24 hours is probably

871
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:43,920
too high of a probability.
Give it a week or so and see

872
00:55:43,920 --> 00:55:45,920
what happens.
If see where people kind of

873
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:47,960
said, Oh yeah, nothing's going
to happen overnight.

874
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,680
The government obviously sort of
putting it at nothing changing

875
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:55,080
before 2930 and and maybe we
land somewhere in between.

876
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:59,680
Last one on great control guys.
Barracks Four Mile, Trev, take

877
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:03,480
us away.
I was completely oblivious to to

878
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:07,040
this project and how special it
is, but sometimes you just you

879
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:10,560
just like read, read details of
a project and you're like, that

880
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:16,440
is this one just makes me happy.
So they put out some new numbers

881
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:18,880
on four mile.
Four mile was discovered in 2016

882
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:21,120
and yeah, we got some high level
kind of PA details on the

883
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:22,560
project.
This is a freaking beast.

884
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:26,880
I'll, I'll give you some of the,
the high level numbers this 25

885
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:34,240
year mine life producing between
650 and 750,000 oz per annum at

886
00:56:34,240 --> 00:56:37,880
A at A, at a, at a unit all in
sustaining cost of a midpoint of

887
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:40,880
700 U.S. dollars per oz.
That is crazy.

888
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:42,760
Barrack owns 100% of a four
mile.

889
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:46,280
There'll be synergy say with the
Nevada Gold Mines joint venture

890
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:50,360
which you mentioned, JJ which
you mentioned Koala was put in

891
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:55,040
place by by by Bristol back then
when when the joint venture was

892
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:58,000
entered into between Newmont and
and Barrick for the Nevada Gold

893
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:01,520
Mines, I mean four mile was
excluded, but the JV agreement

894
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:04,040
allowed for four mile to be
added later if certain agreed

895
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:05,840
investment or commercial
feasibility triggers are met.

896
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:11,280
Barrack has has said that it
anticipates four mile to to

897
00:57:11,320 --> 00:57:15,000
eventually be contributed to
Nevada Gold Mines at fair market

898
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:16,920
value if certain criteria are
met.

899
00:57:16,920 --> 00:57:21,120
Now the JV agreement kind of
gives Barrack the right to roll

900
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:24,880
four mile in and you must see
the pay or dilute its its JV

901
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:26,160
ownership.
If that happens.

902
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,800
I love I love the project.
This is a barrack needed a win.

903
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,240
This is a this is this is this
actually, I think it's a huge

904
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:34,440
deal.
This is a special project.

905
00:57:34,440 --> 00:57:38,480
This is like this is as tier one
as it gets and it's all

906
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:40,720
barracks.
And I think it kind of like

907
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:42,560
there's been a lot of talk
lately about barrack and

908
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:45,000
activist play.
They might even be Elliot

909
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,120
building a secret position in
barrack right now.

910
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:50,440
That's a rumour going around and
what and there's a breakup play.

911
00:57:50,440 --> 00:57:52,680
We've talked about the breakup
play before, but part of that

912
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:56,040
breakup play is Nevada Gold
Mines separate, separate entity

913
00:57:56,040 --> 00:58:00,720
and that kind of with with Four
Mile X Nevada Gold Mines JV.

914
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:04,280
It really sort of sets the same
for an eventual tie up with

915
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:07,000
Newmont as well.
Sounds like an A.

916
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:08,600
This isn't one, but the projects
are.

917
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,160
This is an A+ plus plus plus
project.

918
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,960
Or still gets to say look what I
have A plus.

919
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,720
Why is he?
But why is he talking about Rico

920
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:20,680
Dick when you know what I mean?
Look, why did you why did you

921
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,240
take gold out of your name when
like you got this in your back

922
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:24,480
pocket?
Like what are you doing?

923
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:26,160
What are you?
What are you doing?

924
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,400
This guy won a Freeport in 2020
and he couldn't get it done.

925
00:58:29,400 --> 00:58:34,000
Can you imagine?
Can you imagine what it must be

926
00:58:34,000 --> 00:58:37,760
like to run that company knowing
this was sitting in your back

927
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,400
pocket?
And, and, and and you realize,

928
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,920
oh, This is why I didn't pay the
over on Great Bear.

929
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:48,080
This is why I haven't bought
anything even though everyone's

930
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:51,240
begging me to do something.
This is why I wouldn't pay 30

931
00:58:51,240 --> 00:58:55,640
when Freeport was 15.
I wanted to do a merger and do

932
00:58:55,640 --> 00:59:00,920
something friendly but nil
premium and this is just sitting

933
00:59:00,920 --> 00:59:04,200
there.
Crazy, I think.

934
00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:08,840
It's it's one of the snarky
jokes.

935
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:11,280
I was thinking in my head, what
looking at this when it's like,

936
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:15,040
oh, Newmont's going to write a
four or $5 billion check to

937
00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:17,400
Bristow.
It's like, they should probably

938
00:59:17,400 --> 00:59:19,440
just call and be like, you want
our lending gold stake?

939
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:26,680
Like what's like, look, just
give touch.

940
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:31,000
We'll make this easy.
They weren't shy on the wording

941
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:32,880
as well, right?
Some of the snippets there one

942
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:36,480
of the centuries greatest
discoveries and potential to

943
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:39,840
reset the industry cost curve.
It's it's like it's not an

944
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:43,160
exaggeration either.
Like that's this is a phenomenal

945
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:44,480
discovery.
My God like.

946
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:48,560
Very keen to see all the numbers
come out that that sort of

947
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:50,960
teaser is sort of wet in the
appetite I.

948
00:59:50,960 --> 00:59:52,840
Think the joys of doing it as a
PEA though.

949
00:59:52,840 --> 00:59:56,280
And with an exploration charts
he could use the inferred so he

950
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:58,800
could really make it look good.
Remember guys, as we all know,

951
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:01,720
unless there's some major
exploration or flood sheet

952
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:04,680
innovation, no project ever
looks as good as it does on the

953
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:08,440
PEA.
Work down from here.

954
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:10,400
All right, guys, let's sort of
fly through.

955
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:13,360
Sweet deal, Sour deal.
I think we've got 4 odd ones to

956
01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:16,600
run through here.
Trav, you kick us off.

957
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,800
Sweet or sour?
Paladin raising $300 million.

958
01:00:20,240 --> 01:00:23,920
B give it AB Sorry, I'll give it
a I'll give it a sweet.

959
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:25,280
I'll give it a sweet, sweet
deal.

960
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,840
I'm encouraged by the new CE OS
more conservative approach to

961
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:31,080
the balance sheet.
I also think they're raising an

962
01:00:31,080 --> 01:00:36,080
evaluation north of my like, you
know, intrinsic value of, of of

963
01:00:36,080 --> 01:00:37,560
paladin.
So you know, like if you're

964
01:00:37,560 --> 01:00:42,120
raising money above sweet deal
use of funds, you look at $100

965
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:45,640
million pen for working capital.
So my rule of my rule of thumb,

966
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:48,560
whenever you, you see a use of
funds list and, and it's always

967
01:00:48,560 --> 01:00:51,240
the last line is like working
capital, multiply that by at

968
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:52,640
least 2 and that's the real
number.

969
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:57,120
No, that's just how I think.
So I think $200 million for

970
01:00:57,120 --> 01:01:00,200
working capital.
So end of the day, though, this

971
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,840
is still a ramp up raise and
it's only because they've got

972
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:06,240
PLS can they frame it as a, as a
growth raise, right?

973
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:10,440
But it's like they're still in
ramp up and I I think this is a

974
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,320
ramp up raise, but there's a new
CEO.

975
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:14,240
So I should just, you know,
commend someone for having a

976
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:15,680
more conservative approach on
the balance sheet.

977
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:18,440
Like why there was ever why
there's debt in that capital

978
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,440
structure, like beyond my like,
I just don't, I do not

979
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,520
understand.
Yeah, so, but sweet deal.

980
01:01:25,560 --> 01:01:27,600
There's a million reasons to
raise money, but there's only

981
01:01:27,600 --> 01:01:30,840
one typically that actually gets
you to actually decide to pull

982
01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:40,400
the trigger on the deal.
They PLS is PLS is the excuse,

983
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:43,680
even if it's probably not the
reason they pulled the trigger.

984
01:01:44,560 --> 01:01:48,000
And what else are we going to?
What else?

985
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,040
What else are you going to
invest if you're an ASX

986
01:01:50,040 --> 01:01:53,600
investor?
It's but it's a boss.

987
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:56,320
It's next Gen.
We don't need to go down that

988
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:59,480
rabbit hole.
But even though the project's a

989
01:01:59,480 --> 01:02:02,120
treble, yeah, to be like, makes
sense.

990
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,400
You you call people for playing
the game when in the car they

991
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:10,520
have the cards.
Yeah, sweet deal.

992
01:02:10,520 --> 01:02:11,520
I think you guys have captured
it.

993
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,720
Well, wipe the slate clean with
the new CEO coming in.

994
01:02:15,240 --> 01:02:19,000
Next one up, we've got Alamos
gold, the sale of their Turkish

995
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:20,600
assets.
So this one might be a bit

996
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,440
unfamiliar to to Aussies.
I'll give a very brief recap.

997
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:28,240
Alamos is a an 18 billion in
Canadian dollars TSX Goldies.

998
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,320
So they've had a a great last
sort of month that's seen them

999
01:02:31,320 --> 01:02:37,560
kick up this sale is AUS $470
million sale to a Turkish

1000
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:39,720
conglomerate of three
development assets that they've

1001
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:44,040
got now long back story here.
They've been in Turkey for the

1002
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:46,360
better part of a decade and a
half.

1003
01:02:46,640 --> 01:02:50,360
They started construction on one
of those 3 development projects

1004
01:02:50,360 --> 01:02:55,760
in 20 in the late 20 tens 2019.
They hit a real snag with the

1005
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:59,680
government not renewing what
seemed a pretty stock standard

1006
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:04,280
mindless renewal that kicked off
as you'd suspect, a lot of legal

1007
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:07,080
back and forth.
So all that's to kind of say

1008
01:03:07,080 --> 01:03:11,600
that analysts out there valued
their Turkish assets at next to

1009
01:03:11,600 --> 01:03:17,960
nothing because there was legal
lawsuits in in the Hagen and

1010
01:03:17,960 --> 01:03:21,440
other parts going on, you know,
with Alamos suing the Turkish

1011
01:03:21,440 --> 01:03:24,280
government for a lot of money.
So the fact that they have got a

1012
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:29,240
deal this $470 million is not
overly, you know, contingent on

1013
01:03:29,280 --> 01:03:31,240
a bunch of different things.
It's just time based.

1014
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,560
So they get around about 1/3
today, 1/3 in a year and a third

1015
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:37,320
in two years time.
And that is backed up with

1016
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:41,080
international bank guarantees.
So that's a pretty decent

1017
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:45,240
outcome in an environment that I
think you could quite easily

1018
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:47,440
label a seller's environment
for.

1019
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:51,560
Goldie's out there to get 470
million US in in your pocket

1020
01:03:51,560 --> 01:03:54,360
when most people had that
written down to nothing is it's

1021
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:57,080
quite sweet in my eyes.
Koala, you might know this one a

1022
01:03:57,080 --> 01:04:00,200
bit more than than us down here.
A+ both sides.

1023
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:03,760
Sometimes you got to know when
you're not the right, you're not

1024
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:08,120
the right owner of an asset and
on the and for the local

1025
01:04:08,120 --> 01:04:10,440
operators and penglomerate on
the other side, maybe they can

1026
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:13,200
create a lot of value.
I think this can be looked back

1027
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:18,240
on and look, if if the Turks
crush it, I don't think anyone's

1028
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,800
going to look at Alamos and be
like, oh, you left so much money

1029
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:23,800
on the table.
It's I know when it's not your

1030
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:28,200
party to be at, that's.
Right.

1031
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:33,200
Well said, well said.
Next one up, Newmont's sale of

1032
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:37,200
their coffee project to Fuerte
Metals, quite, quite a junior

1033
01:04:37,200 --> 01:04:40,960
Fuerte.
So Newmont wrapping up the the

1034
01:04:40,960 --> 01:04:43,160
non core sell down.
Obviously they're flagged last

1035
01:04:43,160 --> 01:04:46,520
year a bunch of assets that were
on the on the chopping block and

1036
01:04:46,520 --> 01:04:49,720
they've kind of methodically
just gone and and offloaded all

1037
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:52,720
of them.
So the price tag US $150

1038
01:04:52,720 --> 01:04:59,080
million.10 in cash upfront, 40
in equity in the junior plus a

1039
01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:05,840
3% NSR, so a royalty that can be
repurchased for $100 million,

1040
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:07,960
so.
Love, love that royalty part.

1041
01:05:08,000 --> 01:05:10,440
I love the ability for the
royalty to be pulled back

1042
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:12,280
entirely.
As you know, not not a partial

1043
01:05:12,280 --> 01:05:15,400
buyback, but a full complete
buyback, 100 million bucks.

1044
01:05:15,840 --> 01:05:17,800
Like I I love that part of the
royalty.

1045
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:19,320
Super cool, right?
Yeah, yeah.

1046
01:05:19,320 --> 01:05:22,120
Sweet, sweet deal on my eyes.
This is a project that's not

1047
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:25,440
really moving the dial for for
Newmont.

1048
01:05:25,520 --> 01:05:26,720
They're getting paid a fair bit
of stocks.

1049
01:05:26,720 --> 01:05:32,240
So they are a 27% owner in
Fuerte now and they got a bit of

1050
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,600
a kick up because Fuerte just
rocketed on this this deal.

1051
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,800
So they say a bit more upside.
You know, in the scheme of how

1052
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:42,840
big Newman is, it's it's pretty
small beer, but get it off off

1053
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,480
their books.
And Fuerte, I think it's also a

1054
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:47,080
sweet deal.
Obviously the market loved it.

1055
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:51,080
Up 70% since last Friday.
They've got Pierre La Sons

1056
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:54,080
support, kind of like a lot of
those, those juniors that get a

1057
01:05:54,080 --> 01:05:57,440
bit of backing and they are now
targeting A feasibility study

1058
01:05:57,440 --> 01:06:00,560
here for the back half of next
year.

1059
01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:03,640
So all of a sudden they're a
company with a with a project

1060
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:06,040
that could go places in this
environment.

1061
01:06:08,480 --> 01:06:11,080
Sweet, sweet, sweet deal.
Yeah, very clever structuring.

1062
01:06:11,800 --> 01:06:15,480
Who are we scoring?
Fuerte I'm I'm scoring.

1063
01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:18,560
I just like when a small company
can can do a big deal without

1064
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:21,960
actually having to like fund
very much upfront.

1065
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:25,560
I just think it's really cool.
100% sour Sour.

1066
01:06:26,520 --> 01:06:29,960
I think we actually have to have
a reflection here given the

1067
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:33,480
keenness and the gold market and
the precious metals, whether

1068
01:06:33,480 --> 01:06:40,760
it's this Hemlo LBO out of
Barrick, we go look at all the

1069
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:43,280
Wheaton and all the price
contingent.

1070
01:06:44,400 --> 01:06:51,360
And this isn't, this isn't price
contingent with a pile of net

1071
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:53,600
cash the way Whitehaven did with
BHP.

1072
01:06:54,160 --> 01:06:59,080
This is brand new companies
raising fresh capital and then

1073
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:03,760
layering on a very complicated
capital structure between

1074
01:07:03,760 --> 01:07:08,880
streams, price contingent.
And I also just like to say

1075
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:12,760
there's no such, there's no such
thing as 100X or A20X on the

1076
01:07:12,760 --> 01:07:15,160
spreadsheet.
At any point in time, you can

1077
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:19,480
talk me into a three XA 5X.
And then something has to

1078
01:07:19,480 --> 01:07:22,720
happen, either the coal
commodity paradigm has to change

1079
01:07:23,320 --> 01:07:26,560
or, or when the company or the
asset has to change to actually

1080
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:32,640
give you the next 5X on the 5X.
And it seems like we're doing a

1081
01:07:32,640 --> 01:07:37,160
lot of deals right now where
we're basically betting on the

1082
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:39,600
gold price is going to go a lot
higher in real terms.

1083
01:07:40,080 --> 01:07:42,960
It's not going to go down.
If it goes down, whatever we we

1084
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:46,920
bought a call option and these
are assets that some of these

1085
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:50,560
assets off you particularly what
it lasts all for 500 million

1086
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:52,120
bucks what Gold Corp paid for
it.

1087
01:07:53,560 --> 01:07:56,960
I'm going to assume a gold price
that's less than half of what it

1088
01:07:56,960 --> 01:08:06,720
was today.
Newman is not stupid Ike, if you

1089
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:11,320
want to play for 4500 gold and
another 1000 bucks an ounce in

1090
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:15,400
the next 12 to 24 months 4 they
will make you a lot of money,

1091
01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:20,720
but let's not pretend we're not
talking about buying call

1092
01:08:20,720 --> 01:08:23,120
options 2030% spot price out of
the money.

1093
01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:29,359
Probably like I'm not, I'm not
super close keys, but just like,

1094
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:34,600
yeah, Newmont's letting this go
out the door at that price.

1095
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:39,520
So the, the Hemlo think I put in
a different category like on the

1096
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:42,840
cap, I think, I don't think the
cap structure of Fuerte is, is

1097
01:08:42,840 --> 01:08:48,000
particularly onerous purely
because the like 100 million of

1098
01:08:48,000 --> 01:08:52,640
the headline number is a 3% NSR
which can be bought back 100% of

1099
01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:55,040
you know, and you're only going
to do that if like the economics

1100
01:08:55,040 --> 01:08:56,000
kind of justified.
So.

1101
01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:57,920
So why is Newmont?
Why is Newmont throwing this out

1102
01:08:57,920 --> 01:08:58,560
the door?
Why?

1103
01:08:58,840 --> 01:09:01,640
Why, at these gold prices, is
Newmont throwing something out

1104
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:05,640
the door which is basically free
optionality?

1105
01:09:08,000 --> 01:09:10,760
I think this is just all part of
like, I think it's just

1106
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:13,080
consistent messaging since the
moment, you know, Newman

1107
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:16,439
acquired new Crest and there was
and Tom Palmer comes out and in

1108
01:09:16,439 --> 01:09:19,560
that announcement says we're
going to divest non core assets.

1109
01:09:19,560 --> 01:09:21,479
And then they provide a list of
all of the non core assets are

1110
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,080
going to divest.
And I think they're just they're

1111
01:09:23,080 --> 01:09:25,840
just like following through with
what they said they were going

1112
01:09:25,840 --> 01:09:28,160
to do.
Gold prices moved a lot since

1113
01:09:28,160 --> 01:09:30,520
then.
I don't like to your point like

1114
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:33,920
I do think there's it is kind of
questionable when majors like

1115
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:36,399
offload the optionality and yes,
there are certain assets that

1116
01:09:36,399 --> 01:09:38,920
fit to be in majors portfolios,
but there are other majors who

1117
01:09:38,920 --> 01:09:41,720
take a view of like never
divesting their optionality.

1118
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:45,520
They just like water and
Agnico's like for a large part

1119
01:09:45,520 --> 01:09:47,680
fits that category.
They're not known to sell stuff.

1120
01:09:50,560 --> 01:09:53,000
I guess selling things that
don't move the needle anymore,

1121
01:09:53,680 --> 01:09:59,960
but yeah, it's just what was the
holding cost on coffee?

1122
01:09:59,960 --> 01:10:02,000
It's a project.
It's not a my.

1123
01:10:02,960 --> 01:10:05,200
There's not tailing, tailing
stamps.

1124
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:08,880
There's it's one thing to say
this my will never be more than

1125
01:10:08,880 --> 01:10:12,880
2% of my Ebitdas.
So I don't want the liability

1126
01:10:13,640 --> 01:10:15,680
that comes with it being one of
our operations because it

1127
01:10:15,680 --> 01:10:19,000
doesn't move the needle that I
think we all understand.

1128
01:10:21,440 --> 01:10:24,520
But how long has Galore Creek
sat in the tech portfolio or

1129
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:27,160
Shaft Creek?
It's just you.

1130
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:31,800
You land bank projects and at
3600 gold when you've already

1131
01:10:31,800 --> 01:10:34,960
well exceeded your divestiture
objectives.

1132
01:10:35,800 --> 01:10:40,640
Why?
Yeah, well, well, here's another

1133
01:10:40,640 --> 01:10:42,080
way to frame it.
What's Newmont's?

1134
01:10:43,320 --> 01:10:45,400
Yeah, what's, what's the Newmont
stake in London Gold worth,

1135
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,960
right.
And like had the like, like I do

1136
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:50,360
think Newmont maybe understands
that there are like assets in

1137
01:10:50,360 --> 01:10:52,800
other like, you know, companies
portfolios where that's the

1138
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:55,320
whole thing and they retain and
they they hold shares.

1139
01:10:55,320 --> 01:10:58,120
Like maybe they'll actually
realize a far better return in

1140
01:10:58,120 --> 01:11:00,240
the process as well.
Yeah, that was New Crest Steel,

1141
01:11:00,240 --> 01:11:06,400
not Newmont's, but yeah.
True.

1142
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:11,480
I do find the nature of sort of
giving a list of assets to the

1143
01:11:11,480 --> 01:11:14,200
market that we're going to kind
of sell an interesting kind of

1144
01:11:14,200 --> 01:11:16,760
dynamic.
I kind of understand why they

1145
01:11:16,760 --> 01:11:19,400
did it.
They sort of non core assets

1146
01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:21,840
that aren't massively moving the
dial.

1147
01:11:21,840 --> 01:11:24,120
The market understands where
they're going and can sort of

1148
01:11:24,120 --> 01:11:26,200
factor that all in.
It is a kind of interesting

1149
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:29,920
strategy to to kind of review
your cards to to the person on

1150
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:32,840
the other side of the table.
I got 1 before we do the I got

1151
01:11:32,840 --> 01:11:35,280
one for you guys.
Think of resources

1152
01:11:35,280 --> 01:11:43,640
recapitalization.
Yeah, it looks.

1153
01:11:44,040 --> 01:11:46,560
I'm just not at all familiar
with the asset or anything.

1154
01:11:46,560 --> 01:11:49,240
But yeah, I think it's cool to
say.

1155
01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:53,960
I, yeah, wish Horner and Brandon
the best of luck with that.

1156
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:57,720
Those guys know the zinc market.
I suspect you've got some

1157
01:11:57,720 --> 01:11:59,560
thoughts on this one I.
Reckon you're a Ding Ding Ding

1158
01:11:59,560 --> 01:12:01,800
on this one mate.
You have no idea.

1159
01:12:08,440 --> 01:12:12,960
Look, 20 million tons of high
grade, call it 10 plus zinc

1160
01:12:12,960 --> 01:12:18,040
equivalent, probably sitting
there and I'm going to butcher

1161
01:12:18,040 --> 01:12:23,520
the name Iwalika.
Sylvia's going to get drilled

1162
01:12:23,840 --> 01:12:25,560
on.
I think it's just really

1163
01:12:25,560 --> 01:12:33,040
refreshing for two incredible
people, both as people and

1164
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:36,520
characters, but also as talents
in the business, to look at

1165
01:12:36,520 --> 01:12:40,000
something so thoughtfully and
realize based on their recent

1166
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:45,480
professional experience that
from a 22 million Canadian free

1167
01:12:45,480 --> 01:12:51,280
money basis, you could reframe
this and not chase the big

1168
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:55,080
tonnage, the big score.
The way maybe prior strategics

1169
01:12:55,080 --> 01:13:00,040
tried to push the management
team and instead say, OK, from

1170
01:13:00,040 --> 01:13:05,440
where we are today, what is the
economic maximizing path?

1171
01:13:06,240 --> 01:13:11,720
They're clearly a high grade
core, but this is something that

1172
01:13:11,720 --> 01:13:14,480
some really smart people have
looked at in the past.

1173
01:13:16,000 --> 01:13:20,800
It kind of left by the wayside.
And I think this opportunity to

1174
01:13:20,800 --> 01:13:24,320
give this project a Lazarus
moment and re inject some life

1175
01:13:24,320 --> 01:13:27,880
and get it swimming again with
some really thoughtful people

1176
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:30,160
who know how to drive deal
tension.

1177
01:13:30,160 --> 01:13:31,800
They know how to drive
development.

1178
01:13:34,720 --> 01:13:38,560
And I know these guys won't
sleep until they've and

1179
01:13:38,560 --> 01:13:39,920
everything in their power to
drive.

1180
01:13:39,920 --> 01:13:46,800
A great outcome.
First chapter of many. 1st

1181
01:13:46,800 --> 01:13:51,120
chapter of many Awesome mate.
Thank you for for jumping on the

1182
01:13:51,120 --> 01:13:54,120
show and yeah, letting us pick
your brain and, and chatting

1183
01:13:54,120 --> 01:13:55,640
through everything happening in
the mining world.

1184
01:13:56,600 --> 01:13:59,280
First, boys, hopefully get to
your side of the world sooner

1185
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:02,160
and later.
Always great to chat with the

1186
01:14:02,160 --> 01:14:08,760
koala as always mate and be it
heated discussion.

1187
01:14:09,200 --> 01:14:10,520
We already disagreed on one
thing today.

1188
01:14:10,560 --> 01:14:11,720
I was disappointed about that
very.

1189
01:14:11,840 --> 01:14:14,880
Very disappointing on that
front, but as always mate, we

1190
01:14:14,880 --> 01:14:17,440
love picking apart what's going
on in the mining world and

1191
01:14:17,440 --> 01:14:18,720
there's no shortage of that
today.

1192
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:21,800
A massive thank you to our
partners that make it happen,

1193
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:24,520
Sandy Ground Support.
I marked the conference coming

1194
01:14:24,520 --> 01:14:27,200
up on October 21 to October 23
in Sydney.

1195
01:14:27,560 --> 01:14:30,600
And last but not least, focus
the platform by Market Tech.

1196
01:14:30,800 --> 01:14:31,960
Uduru.
Uduru.

1197
01:14:32,960 --> 01:14:35,800
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

1198
01:14:36,120 --> 01:14:38,200
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

1199
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:40,880
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out a

1200
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:41,400
disclaimer.