Lithium’s True Inflection Point (YJ Lee)

1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,160
People tend to project in
straight lines when real growth

2
00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,720
is exponential.
What we've seen in the best

3
00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:10,760
market I see forecasts of in
2036100800 GW hours.

4
00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:13,040
Well, guess what, we'll probably
reach there in two years, not

5
00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,040
five years.
You've.

6
00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,000
Been on on many sort of site
visits seeing seeing parts of

7
00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,200
the world.
Well, the only the only

8
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,600
travelling I did recently was to
Las Vegas for the Fast Markets

9
00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:27,880
conference.
How was that?

10
00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:30,560
Oh, it was pretty awesome my
first time in Vegas.

11
00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,920
But to be honest I didn't.
I didn't really like the

12
00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,920
experience.
I think it's a different Vegas

13
00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:40,000
from what it used to be.
I hear complaints that it's all

14
00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,080
rent seeking behaviour there
right now and it's really,

15
00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,200
really true.
Everything costs so much and

16
00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:46,600
they try to charge you for
everything.

17
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,520
Really.
Yeah, OK.

18
00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,560
Yeah, and and the hotel, every
single hotel, they charge a

19
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:56,400
resort fee of something like 45
or 55 USD a night extra on top

20
00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:57,760
of what the hotel already
charges.

21
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:00,880
God, it must be private equity
owned or something.

22
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,000
I know who doesn't do that.
You should and you should come

23
00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:06,720
with us to the Africa down under
conference here in in Perth.

24
00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,920
He's the 3rd to the 5th of
September like pay to put on a a

25
00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,320
banger.
There's look, to be honest,

26
00:01:12,320 --> 00:01:14,920
there's probably more gold
opportunities, but but Africa a

27
00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,320
great, a great, a great producer
of of lithium where we're going

28
00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:21,200
to be there and.
You run a transition fund as

29
00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,120
well YJ and there's plenty of
transition critical minerals in

30
00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:26,320
great continent of Africa.
I'll tell you what, we could

31
00:01:26,320 --> 00:01:28,280
probably fix you up with a, you
know, with a discounted ticket

32
00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:30,680
just for you IJ if you if you
agree a couple of months.

33
00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,400
And then, and then you're going
to drop me in Congo and forget

34
00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,480
all about me, you know?
A great lithium projects in

35
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:37,920
Congo mate.
Let's not forget about that.

36
00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:42,080
See mate, YJ is coming to Adu
Africa down under 3rd to 5th of

37
00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:44,000
September.
Get your tickets, they're in the

38
00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:45,680
show notes.
You and I are going to be there.

39
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,120
We are, mate.
Very excited for this

40
00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:48,840
conference.
Big thanks to Peter for putting

41
00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,840
this on mate.
I think this is going to be the

42
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,240
year that Africa Down Under is.
It's it's best year.

43
00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,440
It's best year ever after
growing massively.

44
00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:58,840
Couldn't said it better myself
mate, get your tickets.

45
00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,280
Join us and YJ so he doesn't get
dropped in the Congo.

46
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:07,000
Thank you so much, YJ for for
for joining us on short notice.

47
00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:10,240
We're trying desperately to
understand or wrap our heads

48
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:14,560
around this anti involution
policy, which has, has, has come

49
00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,240
out of, of China.
It's, it's made a big impact on

50
00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,040
the lithium markets already.
It's, it's, this is a like a

51
00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:22,400
kind of a big thing that we're
trying to wrap our, our heads

52
00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,680
around.
And we thought we'd, we'd, we'd

53
00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,120
speak to you all about what's
going on here from, from, you

54
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,280
know, the, the policy front in
China, how that's affecting, you

55
00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,440
know, the, the mines and the
critical minerals supply and,

56
00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,440
and why lithium is maybe maybe
quite exposed to, you know, this

57
00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:40,040
emerging thematic and policy
shift in, in China.

58
00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:44,080
And for the listeners who don't
know, this is our YJ Lee who

59
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:48,120
runs the Arcane, who's a fund
manager for Arcane Capital.

60
00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:50,640
And your fund performance is
going through the roof, mate.

61
00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,240
You would, you would get a date
up like 56%.

62
00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:55,880
So phenomenal, phenomenal
results.

63
00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,280
So congratulations on your
tremendous performance so far.

64
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:01,760
We're glad to have your insights
to to to help us learn about

65
00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:02,840
this.
Yeah, hello.

66
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,640
Hi, guys.
Yeah, great to be back on your

67
00:03:04,640 --> 00:03:07,560
show.
It's been what 9-10 months I

68
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,400
think since our last episode and
boy, so much has changed in the

69
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,600
lithium market.
I think in the previous episode

70
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,960
we were talking about well, the
bottom probably arriving and I

71
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:20,600
think we are a little bit early
on that.

72
00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:24,280
But right now I believe we are
past that.

73
00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:29,000
I think the bottom was in June
this year and when when spongy

74
00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:36,440
min was about $600 a tonne and
carbonate was 8000 and now you

75
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:39,320
know prices are about 50% higher
than that so.

76
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,440
Sponge means above 1000 bucks a
tonne, like in, in the space of,

77
00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:44,560
of two months.
It's it's truly remarkable.

78
00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:45,480
You were?
Yeah.

79
00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:49,680
I it's, it's amazing, Yeah.
Well, yeah, I mean at that point

80
00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:53,360
in time, it didn't look
realistic to me, which was we

81
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,800
had a we had a price where 2/3
even up to 2/3 of the producers

82
00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:01,920
in the world don't make money.
And that is to me not

83
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,240
sustainable.
You know, for an industry that's

84
00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:08,760
growing easily 2530 plus percent
per year doesn't make sense that

85
00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,240
more than half the suppliers
don't make money.

86
00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,640
So I think that probably marked
the bottom.

87
00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,079
And now like you rightly point
out, with the policies in China

88
00:04:19,079 --> 00:04:23,680
coming out a bit more in support
of rational market driven

89
00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,400
dynamics, that probably signals
the bottom of the market.

90
00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,560
How do you think about this,
this anti involution?

91
00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,800
It's like the the buzzword of
the month at the moment.

92
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,360
YJ is it?
Is it something sort of

93
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,880
dominating your thinking and and
the conversations you're having

94
00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,680
as well?
No, I, I wouldn't say it's

95
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,560
dominating, but this anti
involution thing, let's let's

96
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,840
take a step back and understand
how this whole thing comes about

97
00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:54,120
South China.
I mean, it's, it's a, it's a

98
00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,040
huge market and it is super,
super competitive.

99
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,240
It is not the case that, you
know, like the portrait in the

100
00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:06,040
West is all centrally planned.
It's all government controlled.

101
00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,000
Not at all.
What happens actually is that

102
00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,520
there's a central government
layer, yes, which sets the

103
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,200
country policies.
And then there are individual

104
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,520
provinces which kind of act like
your states in the US, right,

105
00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,280
who have their own concerns,
their own financing, their own

106
00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,880
employment numbers to look out
for, their own taxes to cover.

107
00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:30,640
And therefore their, their
incentives might be different

108
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,840
from that of the national
government.

109
00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:36,400
So national government sets the
broad country policies.

110
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,120
The local governments have to
manage their local employment,

111
00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:45,800
local economies, and then down
to the private sector, which

112
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,960
then has many companies that are
fighting out in the market, also

113
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,520
fighting out at the same time
against some of the state owned

114
00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,720
enterprises.
So it's, it's, it's an open

115
00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,440
marketplace.
So I was, I was kind of

116
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,440
describing the, the story of
competition in China right now.

117
00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,360
That was the backdrop.
And what usually happens is that

118
00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,160
the government sees a clear
direction forward.

119
00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:14,960
For example, 1020 years ago
government says batteries, we

120
00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,920
are going to be #1 in the world
in lithium and batteries.

121
00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,160
And that's and that and they set
the long term vision for that.

122
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,200
Before that it was shipbuilding,
before that it was steel, you

123
00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,240
know.
So what happens is that the

124
00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,520
government has set this long
term vision, then the states,

125
00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:34,960
the provinces execute this in
each of their provinces to the

126
00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:39,760
best of their ability and and
incentivize companies to start

127
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,560
up.
Usually they incentivize this

128
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:47,120
via tax policies and other
other, the usual economy

129
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,200
incentives.
Yeah, some subsidies, some tax

130
00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,720
policies, etcetera.
And that allows many, many

131
00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,400
companies to start up and then
start competing with each other.

132
00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,720
And you know, China is a huge
place, so many provinces.

133
00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,400
And when and when this happens,
what usually happens is that at

134
00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:10,160
the start of any major policy,
maybe 50 to 100 companies get

135
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:11,840
started up competing in this
space.

136
00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:15,720
And then by virtue of their
competition, the strong survive,

137
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,280
the weak die out.
Typical Darwinian marketplace.

138
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:24,320
Yeah, So and this is and by by
doing this, they gain the

139
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,560
skills, they gain the expertise,
they gain the market shares and

140
00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,360
the winners eventually become
the strong companies of the

141
00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:35,880
future, right.
But the process of doing this

142
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:40,640
creates huge competition between
the companies in each province

143
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:43,320
and between the companies at the
national level.

144
00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:48,560
That's why we are seeing today
over 50 EV companies in China.

145
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,800
The numbers have dwindled over
the last few years, Yes.

146
00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:57,360
But then this is competition to
the extent that they're all

147
00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,080
trying to survive.
And by driving prices down, that

148
00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,200
has caused what we we have a
joke.

149
00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,840
You know, everything that
Chinese do that Chinese produce,

150
00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:10,760
they turn it into the price of
cabbage.

151
00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:12,800
We call it bite.
Yeah, right.

152
00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:17,240
So it goes from steel to ships
to now EVs, right?

153
00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,240
They're so, so cheap.
You can have an EV and wooling

154
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:26,920
for what, $5000, right.
So but this process of bringing

155
00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:32,840
prices down, competing all the
way leads to loss making

156
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:36,880
situations boom and bust cycles
over over decades.

157
00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,880
And now we are at the bottom of
one of these cycles, which is

158
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:45,920
for lithium and which means that
nobody makes money, but some

159
00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,240
players are going to survive and
come out the stronger for it.

160
00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:55,120
And that's that's how it is in
the typical Chinese way of doing

161
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:56,840
things.
Yeah.

162
00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,640
And, and that, that process, I
mean, the, the, the competition

163
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:03,320
bit kind of makes sense.
But one of the realities of the,

164
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,680
the competitive nature is that
there are these, these price

165
00:09:06,680 --> 00:09:10,960
wars which you know, might
actually in in some ways be a

166
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,200
little bit anti competitive.
The, the, the focus on this

167
00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:16,080
supply side policy, anti
involution, as I understand it,

168
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:19,800
it's actually looking to, to
refrain from price wars by

169
00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,560
reducing supply across, you
know, industries being steel,

170
00:09:22,560 --> 00:09:25,600
solar, you know, logistics, even
medical devices.

171
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,000
That.
And, and as a, as a result of

172
00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:32,400
that, there's a, potentially a,
a mentality or a, or a cultural

173
00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,680
shift towards, you know, higher
kind of profitability of the

174
00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:38,760
businesses as a, as opposed to
the, the, the, the highly

175
00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,880
competitive overcapacity and
price wars.

176
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,640
Is that is that like a fair
characterization of of your

177
00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:49,560
interpretation or of the policy?
Yeah.

178
00:09:49,560 --> 00:09:51,880
But what I'm yes, they are
trying to do this.

179
00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:58,440
But what I think that this may
not be as successful as we think

180
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,560
it's going to be because this is
pure market economics.

181
00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,880
Price wars making short term
losses for long term gain is

182
00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,120
nothing new.
Every economy goes through this.

183
00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,840
We've seen, we've seen price
wars happen in in Western

184
00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,680
countries, in industries in the
West as well.

185
00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:21,760
So it does not mean that this is
native to China.

186
00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,280
In fact, what happened with the
solar industry like you

187
00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,880
mentioned a few years ago in the
during the Green New Deal

188
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,560
periods, the solar companies
were making so much money, they

189
00:10:32,560 --> 00:10:35,480
are all cashed up.
The big ones have billions of

190
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:39,280
yuan in, in, in the bank.
They can, they can wait this

191
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:40,680
out.
They can, they can make short

192
00:10:40,680 --> 00:10:42,960
term losses.
They're going to lose half, half

193
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,280
that stash, but they're going to
come out with capacities double

194
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,360
treble what they were five years
ago.

195
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,880
So and that drives down their
costs in the longer term.

196
00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:59,160
So I don't see this anti
evolution policy immediately

197
00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,960
succeeding because it is
difficult.

198
00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:05,400
You are fighting market
pressures.

199
00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:12,040
What I mean to say is that it is
natural for for many companies

200
00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:16,000
in an industry to compete on
prices, drive prices even below

201
00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:19,160
costs for the short term so that
that's to win the long term

202
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,360
game.
And no government policy can

203
00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:27,200
stamp this out immediately to
the extent that yes, they might

204
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,480
be able to target specific
players that run at a loss so

205
00:11:31,480 --> 00:11:33,960
that they can subsidise them
their operations in other ways.

206
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:41,240
I.e CATL, yeah, that could be
successful, but industry wide, I

207
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,240
don't think it will work for the
solar industry and I don't think

208
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:44,440
it will work for the lithium
industry.

209
00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:49,080
Why, Jim, I'm curious to just
hear a couple of thoughts on, on

210
00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:53,240
why this has all kind of come
about because there is a bit of

211
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,080
a notion that this came about
from a cultural type push.

212
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,680
And it's the the government
responding to that and that sort

213
00:11:59,680 --> 00:12:03,640
of dynamic through the major
cities and the the cost of

214
00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,520
property rising so much and you
know, salaries being so

215
00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:07,880
competitive and these sorts of
things.

216
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,120
Do do you say that?
Is that how you've sort of

217
00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:14,080
inferred this involution or anti
involution policy setting coming

218
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,880
about?
It's a little bit too early to

219
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:22,000
make firm judgements on this
policy.

220
00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,840
I think where it's coming from,
yes, to some extent they do see

221
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:32,480
that this competition has gone a
little bit out of hand and it's

222
00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:38,520
causing, it's causing kind of
how, how do I say it's, it's,

223
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:43,920
it's, it's a bit of a downer in
terms of the national mentality.

224
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,320
You know, when everybody fights
it out so much that nobody makes

225
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,600
any money and everybody suffers
for it, it's not a great place

226
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,120
to be.
So I think they are trying to

227
00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:58,720
change the culture a little bit
towards more healthy to set the

228
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,120
tone for a more healthy
expectation of future market

229
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,120
conditions.
But I don't know whether that's

230
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:07,800
going to work.
Yeah, yeah.

231
00:13:07,800 --> 00:13:11,520
And a lot of the the people
we've sort of spoken with have

232
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:15,560
made the comparison to the
supply side reform one point O

233
00:13:15,560 --> 00:13:18,640
sort of call it in the 2015
sixteen period.

234
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,240
How do you sort of compare and
contrast the differences now is,

235
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,880
is that a comparison you you
kind of jump at or do you think

236
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:26,760
we're in a kind of unique
situation here?

237
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,600
I mean, history rhymes, right?
But never repeats itself.

238
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:38,320
Back then it was mostly
competition at the large SOE

239
00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:42,240
level.
Right now China has become very,

240
00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:47,560
very much a market private, most
of the market power, a lot of

241
00:13:47,560 --> 00:13:50,120
market power has shifted over to
the private companies,

242
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,520
especially in the lithium space,
should I say.

243
00:13:56,080 --> 00:14:03,280
And it's, I think it's harder
to, you know, actually make

244
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:08,920
changes the way they want, what
they want to change because, you

245
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,960
know, it's not a, it's not a SOE
that you have direct control

246
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,120
into.
These are private businesses,

247
00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:15,280
right?
So, yeah, if you're trying to

248
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:19,320
have a supply side policy that
is, is targeting the private

249
00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:23,640
businesses, one mechanism to to
to have some input there from,

250
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,400
you know, from, from the
government level would

251
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,640
presumably be through these this
licensing mechanism.

252
00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,640
And this is this is the, the
part of the news flow that has,

253
00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:33,480
has, has really kind of rippled
through the lithium equities in

254
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:37,200
the last couple of weeks.
And it's, it's it's in relation

255
00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:41,200
to, you know, China's government
revising the Mineral Resources

256
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,240
Law and the legislation which
outlines that mine registrations

257
00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,240
and approvals are now down to
the Ministry of Natural

258
00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,040
Resources.
And that also means that the

259
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,760
local governments can no longer
license operations without

260
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:57,920
authorization from the ministry.
We we kind of we we saw this a

261
00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,280
little bit ripple through with
with notably the junk she

262
00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,120
cattle's mind, the Lipidala mind
there.

263
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,480
I think, you know, it's also
goes by the name 414 as well.

264
00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:10,840
How did you interpret that, You
know, series of events as it

265
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,120
ties into this, you know this
this policy as well?

266
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,440
I see it in terms of economic
incentive.

267
00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:22,200
So when lithium prices was super
high and lipidolite started

268
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:27,200
coming onto the scene in 2122,
then the government had no issue

269
00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:31,240
with these mines coming online
through whichever loopholes.

270
00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,560
You know, a Cow Lane granite
mine coming online to produce

271
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:42,080
lipidolite, right as maybe the
byproduct in a way that they

272
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:44,200
don't like being a byproduct,
but it actually was the main

273
00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,640
economic product of the mine,
therefore feeding into the

274
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,160
supply chains and bringing down
the lithium prices so that the

275
00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:53,960
battery guys and the EV guys
have can survive and and

276
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,080
dominate the industry for the
future.

277
00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,680
Yes, that's in line with the
national policy and therefore

278
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:05,640
it's allowed.
Now prices have dropped so much

279
00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,200
that it's that other things
become more important, right?

280
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:14,400
Pollution, for example,
lapidolite is highly, highly

281
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:20,680
pollutive, toxic even to refine.
And then you the amount of oil

282
00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,320
you have to booth is simply
ridiculous to produce a tonne of

283
00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:28,080
lithium carbonate from that
Jiangxi mine, the Jiangxia war

284
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:32,280
mine that CATL runs, it's a
very, very low grade mine.

285
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,320
The grade is .28% and it's
lipidoli.

286
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,120
You need to basically at such
low grades, you need to move

287
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:43,200
what, 350 tonnes of ore to
produce a single tonne of LC.

288
00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,520
Makes no sense, right?
And if you want to scale this

289
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,840
up, some people say the, the,
the capacity of this mine is

290
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:53,040
100,000 tonnes per year.
I don't think it's that at the

291
00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:57,560
moment, but that is the, that is
the longer aim.

292
00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,120
I think.
Do the math.

293
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,440
You need to move 35,000,000
tonnes of ore to produce that

294
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,599
amount of LC before refining
losses.

295
00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:07,480
It's.
Remarkable here.

296
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:10,319
So maybe you need to produce 50.
Yeah.

297
00:17:10,599 --> 00:17:12,680
So it's crazy.
I don't think they have a

298
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,240
35,000,000 ton operation there.
And the amount of pollution that

299
00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,560
will create will be the same.
So now I think other things

300
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,640
become more important.
Cheap raw materials can be

301
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:27,160
bought in the open market from
Africa, from all over the world.

302
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,280
Now that now, then the local
pollution issues start coming

303
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,960
up.
This this one mine, the junction

304
00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,360
like junction was junction mine
that was operating under a under

305
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:41,840
a Kalin license.
Like it was the categorization

306
00:17:42,120 --> 00:17:44,440
was a, you know, a Kalin, A
Kalin mine, but that were

307
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,120
obviously not producing very
much Kalin or any I think.

308
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:50,080
So it was the wrong
characterization.

309
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:53,000
So the, the, the thing that
they've kind of been like picked

310
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,440
up on under this new, new policy
or enforcement of policy is to

311
00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:59,360
get that, that licensing like to
be appropriate.

312
00:17:59,360 --> 00:18:02,120
There's a different royalty rate
between the Kalin mines and, and

313
00:18:02,120 --> 00:18:03,920
a little bit of like mine, as I
understand as well.

314
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,840
So it's kind of like a, a higher
cross cross, like a higher cost

315
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,520
structure to, to, to change it.
And then within that same

316
00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:14,040
province, there's like there's
six or eight other other mines,

317
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:19,360
smaller scale, which, which have
to get their own, like their own

318
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:24,040
licensing changed or September
when they're, they're kind of

319
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,360
they're, they're they're set to
lapse.

320
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,880
Is that all accurate?
Like, and do you see risk to

321
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,920
them being like being being shut
down as well or like, like

322
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:32,160
what's your interpretation of
that?

323
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,280
To be honest, I don't think
anybody knows for sure.

324
00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:39,360
It's too vague in a moment.
Nobody really knows unless

325
00:18:39,360 --> 00:18:42,320
you're like super super insider.
Gotcha.

326
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,160
So these are the rumours that
are swirling around in the

327
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:45,880
lithium lithium WhatsApp group
chat, so.

328
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,120
Yeah.
But I mean, I mean, let's look

329
00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:49,480
at a, let's look at a bigger
picture, right?

330
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,360
We don't need to get into too
much of the nitty gritty.

331
00:18:53,360 --> 00:18:56,000
It doesn't matter what the
slightly different royalties for

332
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:57,400
different minerals, etcetera are
there.

333
00:18:57,640 --> 00:18:58,640
Let's look at the bigger
picture.

334
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,480
Catl's mine gets taken out for
minimally 3 months, right?

335
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,360
Maybe even six months.
That takes maybe about 20-30, at

336
00:19:06,360 --> 00:19:11,320
least 15 to 30 kilotons of LC
out of the market.

337
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,680
If the other mines get taken out
for a couple of months as well,

338
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,640
then that's that much supply out
of the market.

339
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:22,640
But the big picture is that the
lithium market last year was 1.2

340
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,560
million tonnes.
LC this year is probably going

341
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,240
to be 1.5 to 1.6.
I think 1.6.

342
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,160
Other people more conservative
than 1.5.

343
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:35,880
But the bottom line is that
demand is growing 25 to 33% this

344
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:41,880
year every three months that the
market, every three months the

345
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:46,360
demand is growing at maybe 6% or
7%, right.

346
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:50,200
So think of it this way.
Every three months the the world

347
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,880
needs to bring a new TNTR wall,
a new CNTR Lipido like mine to

348
00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,680
the market to meet the
incremental demand growth.

349
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,680
Is that going to happen?
I suppose when you pave it like

350
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,280
that, you're getting in the
nitty gritty of the smaller

351
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,480
supply stuff.
Is, is is like less like a less

352
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,600
pertinent part of the equation
when you think of the supply

353
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:11,280
demand and, and you've you've
been like constant on this point

354
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:14,200
YJ for a long time that the like
consensus is massively

355
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:19,160
underestimating demand here.
And yeah, I'm keen to just like,

356
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,840
peel out what?
Like why, Why consensus is so

357
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:27,280
wrong.
Sometimes they are looking at

358
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:32,160
the narrative, the, the, the
story out there is that low

359
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,960
prices means means that demand
is not catching up to supply,

360
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,920
Therefore demand must be slow.
But that's what that's how the

361
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,760
the news agencies tend to
portray this picture.

362
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,520
But the fact is that go back to
economics, right?

363
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,360
Basic economics and your demand
curve price quantity.

364
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,440
The lower the price, the larger
the quantity demanded.

365
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,520
Translate it into real world
terms, the cheaper your car, the

366
00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,920
more people switch to this
cheaper model right?

367
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:05,640
And now we now we see with low
battery prices cars E VS getting

368
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,800
cheaper than petrol vehicles,
getting cheaper than diesel

369
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,440
vehicles.
Heavy used vehicles are are

370
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,680
switching over very, very
quickly because the ROI on these

371
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,600
electric vehicles is so much
higher.

372
00:21:18,360 --> 00:21:20,680
Now.
One of the things that I've been

373
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:23,320
looking at very, very closely,
which I think analysts or

374
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,600
consensus hasn't really focused
on is electric trucks.

375
00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,440
This is huge.
This is a huge market in China.

376
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:36,840
They sell about last year, the
heavy electric trucks in China

377
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,560
sold about 75,000 units.
This year they are on track for

378
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,880
160,000 units over 100% growth
year on year.

379
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,080
Each of these heavy trucks has a
battery 10 times the size of a

380
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:50,040
of a passenger car.
And these trucks are going

381
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,760
everywhere in mining, in
hauling.

382
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:58,600
You know, you even see China
travelling autonomous trucking

383
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:03,200
in China already.
So I think that the demand for

384
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,480
lithium is a lot higher now that
prices are low, which is which I

385
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:09,920
think is in line with economic
theory.

386
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,320
I don't understand why analysts
have a car demand growing in the

387
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,560
teens this year.
Makes no sense.

388
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,240
So demand is going to grow
gangbusters, right?

389
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:22,920
What does that sort of make you
think?

390
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,600
If demand grows gangbusters, we
know more supply needs to come

391
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:29,280
online and the supply is going
to come online naturally faster

392
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,200
from the existing mines that are
in production and can expand.

393
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,400
And when I think of that matter,
think of Lion Town.

394
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,200
Obviously they revise their
their ability to produce to to

395
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,160
2.8 million tons per annum that
they're currently like, like

396
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:44,000
their mining rate is.
But we know that that can be

397
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,240
like 4 million tons per annum
pretty quickly, which means more

398
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,800
and more tons coming from
underground, which means more

399
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,760
ground support.
Is all ground support required

400
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,520
to enable the more mining coming
from underground?

401
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,880
And why not use the best in the
business when it comes to ground

402
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,440
support, Sandvik ground support?
Sandvik ground support, they're

403
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,440
the only, the only name you need
to know when it comes to ground

404
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,440
support, mate, because it can
come to your mind in a jiffy

405
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,240
like that because there's
distribution hubs all over the

406
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:08,600
world.
They've got a team that cares

407
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,080
about it and they they provide
tailored service, great

408
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,240
feedback, great people to order
from great people to, to ensure

409
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,720
that the product is on spec and
it is delivering the results

410
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,600
they need.
Great, great, great person.

411
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,920
And Derek, Kurt A. 100%, mate.
And just like the lithium market

412
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,680
growing gangbusters, these guys
are improving year after year

413
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,040
after year.
Mate, ground support is not

414
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:28,800
something that just needs to be
sort of left in the corner.

415
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,320
It gets better by the day.
You know what the tagline is

416
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:32,840
mate?
Keeping people safe.

417
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,040
Keeping people safe, call
Sandvik ground support one of

418
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,360
the pushbacks that a lot of
people have.

419
00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:41,040
And I'm really curious to hear
your thoughts on why J is that a

420
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,720
lot of this has been subsidy
LED, government incentives, tax

421
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,000
credits, these sorts of things,
and maybe we've seen some of

422
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,040
them sort of peel off.
How do you kind of respond to

423
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,280
the narrative that it's only
been propped up by governments

424
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:57,360
thus far?
We've seen subsidies fall off in

425
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,720
many, many economies and doesn't
affect, doesn't affect the rate

426
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:07,280
of change of EV adoption goes up
towards China is now at 50 over

427
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:12,960
percent and subsidies have been
falling off year on year.

428
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:18,000
And the, the best component, the
stationary storage like the, the

429
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:21,080
growth there has been, I think
it's sort of safe to say it's

430
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,240
been astounding and, and
underrated as well.

431
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,400
And I remember when we spoke a
number of months ago, you were

432
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,360
pretty, you're pretty bullish
on, on this part of the market.

433
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:33,240
I'd, I'd love to sort of get
your reflections on how that's

434
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,640
grown versus what you, what you
had thought back then and where

435
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:41,000
you see that kind of evolving.
Well, actually I kind of raised

436
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,240
my best forecasts I think from
10 months ago.

437
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,520
I didn't, I didn't go back to
check the previous numbers, but

438
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:50,480
I think they're higher now.
I think by 20-30 we reach a 1.5

439
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:56,720
terawatt hour market from 200,
just over 200 GW hours last

440
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:57,760
year.
I think this year we are

441
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,480
slightly over 300.
That's kind of in line with row

442
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:02,080
motions estimate as well, I
think.

443
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:07,000
And why this is happening is
because two things.

444
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:12,080
One, batteries have become so
cheap that the payback period on

445
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,200
most grade level best is now
five to seven years.

446
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:16,760
And that's great economics,
right?

447
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:22,360
And in China, commercial best
has now payback periods of one

448
00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:24,360
to two years.
I'm not kidding you.

449
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,160
I learnt this from the
Fastmarkets analyst.

450
00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:33,320
Credit to him, Chinese guy.
After his presentation at the

451
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,520
Fastmarkets conference, I had to
chat with him and he told me

452
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,280
this.
What's happening in China is

453
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,000
that for the commercial guys,
they are actually, when I say

454
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,440
commercial best, I mean smaller
scale, privately owned best

455
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,600
systems, right?
And what they do is that they

456
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:50,880
charge midday when of course
prices are pretty much negative

457
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,120
and they discharge into the
evening peak, which is the usual

458
00:25:54,120 --> 00:25:58,400
best operation, right?
But then they also charge

459
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,640
midnight and discharge early
morning peak.

460
00:26:02,360 --> 00:26:05,600
And that means that they use
their asset twice a day, not

461
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:11,400
just once, and that drives the
yield of the asset and therefore

462
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,120
the payment period becomes one
to two years.

463
00:26:13,360 --> 00:26:16,720
With that kind of economics,
people sure as hell are putting

464
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,240
in tons of best into the market
wherever they can.

465
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,800
I've not met a single best
manufacturer that says that they

466
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,560
are short on demand.
Yeah, that's, that's

467
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:25,960
fascinating.
And this, this part of the

468
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,240
market is 1 where we've seen
like a huge discrepancy with

469
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,840
the, with the people we've sort
of spoken with and what their

470
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,760
growth assumptions are versus
consensus broker.

471
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:40,320
Like a sort of factor of 2X.
Like some of the, the feedback

472
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,680
we've gotten is that they think
this part of the market is twice

473
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,920
as big as what a, a heap of
brokers out on, on the street

474
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,520
have have written it up to be.
Is, is that the sort of like

475
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,920
thinking you've got as well that
the, the consensus in in Wall

476
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,720
Street or whoever you sort of
think about there is way below

477
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,960
where it's actually at?
People are projecting like as

478
00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:02,080
opposed to observing actual
installation rates.

479
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,600
They're they're they're they're
they're projecting, you know the

480
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,040
the wrong numbers.
Yeah, of course.

481
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,760
I mean, it's, it's the typical
thing, right?

482
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,080
People tend to project in
straight lines when real growth

483
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,920
is exponential.
What we've seen in the best

484
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:24,760
market I see forecasts of in
2036100800 GW hours.

485
00:27:25,120 --> 00:27:27,680
Well, guess what, we'll probably
reach there in two years, you

486
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:32,120
know, not five years.
And the same forecast error

487
00:27:32,120 --> 00:27:34,600
happens in solar.
I mean, go back, go back to, and

488
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,920
that's the other part of the
best equation that I forgot to

489
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:39,400
mention.
Solar go back to the world

490
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,160
energy outlook for the last 10
years.

491
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,680
All right, they are, their
forecasts are always off by a

492
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:50,080
factor of about 3-3 years ago
they said that last year's solar

493
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,840
installations were going to be
200 gigawatts.

494
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:57,680
No, it was 600.
And to the extent that they're

495
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:01,000
all forecasting linearly, the
real growth has been vertical.

496
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,480
And now that drives the entire
best market.

497
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,080
So much solar is being put in
the world today.

498
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,280
A lot of markets experience
negative electricity pricing

499
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:15,240
during the midday.
You cannot install new solar

500
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,880
without new, without pairing
them with batteries anymore.

501
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,720
And just in time, battery prices
have come down so much that

502
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:26,840
solar plus batteries now are
even cheaper on a kilowatt

503
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:31,160
basis, kWh basis than coal or
gas.

504
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,360
So it all makes sense now.
And and if we touch on the, the

505
00:28:35,360 --> 00:28:38,800
chemistry that's that's really
dominating in that part of the

506
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,680
market, LFP, is there, is there
any competition in, in your mind

507
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,640
there?
No, no competition there.

508
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,920
LFP is cheaper.
It's got more charge cycles than

509
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,280
NMC.
Grade batteries don't really

510
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,960
need the the incremental
increase in energy density that

511
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:58,560
NMC delivers.
You don't need, you don't need a

512
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,640
battery to be able to provide a
higher faster acceleration for

513
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,520
your for your car because grade
batteries don't move.

514
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,480
So yeah, LFPS are are the are
the chemistry of choice for

515
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:11,800
best.
Very while we're on the the, the

516
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:16,800
chemistry pace, Raja, I'd love
to get your observations on like

517
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:23,120
in the lead up to, to cattles
like IPO the the potential, like

518
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,840
the potential, any observations
on like cattle's discourse to

519
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,400
the market being talking up
sodium ion and then sort of

520
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,520
subsequent and, and, and, and
maybe maybe, you know, ensuring

521
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,120
that there was an oversupply of
production in the market via

522
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,520
their, their, their own mind,
which if you, if you just take

523
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,360
it on face value, the mind is
uneconomic.

524
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,600
However, cattle is making money
on having lithium price be low

525
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,760
when their margin is, is, is
incremental there.

526
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,040
Do you, do you see any like,
like are you part of the cohort

527
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:52,480
that thinks that like maybe
maybe cattle was was being a

528
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,720
little bit disingenuous in, in
their, in the way that they were

529
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,960
talking about sodium mine and
also in, in their in, in, in

530
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,200
this in the supply and margin
kind of component of that

531
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:06,680
market?
To be honest, not really.

532
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,360
I mean, I don't, I don't
subscribe to every single

533
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,280
conspiracy theory.
Not everyone, not.

534
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:17,120
Everyone someone named me, I
mean, to the extent I think keto

535
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,480
is did run the the mind to
influence lithium prices

536
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,120
globally.
I think that's true.

537
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,240
But the sodium ion battery side,
I mean, I'll give them to be

538
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,240
honest, if I will keto, I will
probably develop sodium ion

539
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:31,520
batteries as well.
Because you're, you're a large

540
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,400
battery company.
You can never say, you know,

541
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,880
five years or 10 years down the
road which chemistry is going to

542
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,600
become dominant.
You have to play every,

543
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,520
everything and you have the
resources to develop everything

544
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:48,880
and see what works right.
And if our view of the lithium

545
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:54,200
market is right, that best
electric trucks, cars, the

546
00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:58,800
demand grows so quickly that
lithium cannot, that there's not

547
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:04,080
enough lithium in 2020, even
2026 onwards to meet demand to

548
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,440
2030.
Then something has to come in

549
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,440
and pick up the slack.
And the only something out there

550
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,120
right now really is sodium.
Yeah.

551
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:16,440
So I think that could be a use
case for sodium to pick up some

552
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:20,640
of the demand that cannot be met
via lithium batteries for, for

553
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:24,760
example, Best.
Yes, a sodium battery setup will

554
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:30,560
require about three times the
land footprint compared to LFPS.

555
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,880
But if you're putting Best out
in the desert, yeah, I mean, you

556
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:36,520
can use three times the space.
It doesn't matter.

557
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,320
So if, if we focus on the
ramifications like we sort of

558
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,600
touched on the, the price
response has been pretty, pretty

559
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,680
quick in, in the scheme of
things.

560
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:49,400
But I think it's fair to say
it's not in the interest of the

561
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:54,240
the Chinese government to see
lithium prices run away to

562
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,080
levels they they got to sort of
last time.

563
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,040
So how do you think about that
dynamic?

564
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:01,840
I know that already sort of what
a bit of a bit of sort of

565
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,240
influence in the amount of
speculation that could take

566
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,560
place with regard to to futures
pricing and these sorts of

567
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:08,760
things.
Do you do you think there's a

568
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,680
big role that they're sort of
playing behind the scenes in

569
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,960
where the lithium price sort of
settles?

570
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,800
Honestly, no, I don't think they
are trying to guide the

571
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,000
government on a on a national
government level basis.

572
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,920
I don't think they're trying to
guide the price of lithium per

573
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,120
SE.
It's a very, very small market.

574
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,960
And to be honest, if you look at
lithium as a percentage of costs

575
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:41,400
these days, given a huge scale
of manufacturing, the raw

576
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,120
material isn't, yes, it's a
significant, it's some part of

577
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,600
the bill of materials, but it's
no longer as large as as they

578
00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:52,040
used to be.
Now manufacturing scale has kind

579
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,840
of driven production costs down
in a in a very big way.

580
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,600
So even even if lithium prices
were to double from where they

581
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:03,720
are today, go from 10/10/12
thousand to 2010, 2020, 4000 per

582
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,040
tonne, LCEI think the battery
market could absorb that.

583
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:11,960
CATL and BYOD have I, I think
have no real issues raising

584
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,320
prices by a little bit to cover
this cost and then everybody can

585
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:21,720
and then there'll be a healthy
and incentive pricing in the

586
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,320
market to incentivize new supply
to come online.

587
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,520
Otherwise we go into a deficit
much, much quicker than people

588
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,200
think.
So, so if we sort of reflect on

589
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,200
that point the the potential
supply response, obviously

590
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,400
through 22 into 23, we saw a
magnificent supply response from

591
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,120
an incredible run up in the
price.

592
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,760
And this sort of supply came
from pockets where people didn't

593
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,400
think it might otherwise sort of
come or it came on quicker from

594
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,680
parts, say Africa and Zimbabwe.
Another sort of it would, are

595
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:54,720
there regions that you think
might be able to sort of click

596
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:58,680
on supply or existing mines that
might expand supply that you're

597
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:02,120
sort of keeping a keen eye on to
to sort of see that this price

598
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,640
level maintains?
Well, we are running out of

599
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,520
continents to be surprised from,
right?

600
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,120
I mean, the only one is
Antarctica, isn't it?

601
00:34:09,679 --> 00:34:13,760
Yeah, but I mean.
By two weeks from the sea floor,

602
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,800
mate.
Well, that's that's nickel van.

603
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,880
People are trying that.
I don't know how well that's

604
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,840
going to go, but.
Well, that's not going there.

605
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:27,159
Yeah, yeah.
But yeah, it was a small market.

606
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,440
2022 was a very small lithium
market.

607
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:33,480
It was what I think if I recall
correctly, an 800K ton market in

608
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,760
total, nothing compared to iron
ore, copper, etcetera, Tiny,

609
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,600
tiny metal market.
We are still tiny, we're still

610
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,440
small, but it's a lot.
It's a lot bigger than before.

611
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:45,840
This year if we are 1.6 million
tonnes, that's double the size,

612
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,199
the market size has doubled.
It will not be so easy to

613
00:34:49,199 --> 00:34:53,400
influence the price either way
from here going forward.

614
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:57,200
The larger the market gets, the
more supply you have to bring

615
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,120
online to the market to crash
the price.

616
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:04,280
So in next year, we are probably
in a 2 million tonne LCE market.

617
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,920
You would have, if you bring on
an additional 100K tonnes like

618
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:12,960
what happened from Africa three
years ago, now you're now you're

619
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:17,760
influencing the market by 5%
instead of the 16% that they

620
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,520
used to be.
And it is not difficult, sorry,

621
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,800
it is not easy to bring 100K
tonnes of supply to the market

622
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,720
quickly.
How they did it in Africa was

623
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:31,000
literally they went to all the
outcrops they could see and just

624
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:35,560
started digging.
No mine plans, no very, very few

625
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,720
approvals.
Just went in, started digging

626
00:35:38,720 --> 00:35:41,440
and go.
Same thing happened in Jiangxi.

627
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:45,280
We had school children.
Unfortunately the economy

628
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,280
incentives were there.
Go out into, you know, pick up

629
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,200
rocks, stuff it into rice sacks,
load it into the back of the

630
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,920
truck, send it to the refiner.
That's what happened.

631
00:35:54,440 --> 00:36:00,000
But I don't think it is easy to
influence the market in a 2 to

632
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,920
3,000,000 tonne market.
I, I suppose, I suppose like

633
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:06,880
what we're trying to figure out
is so we've had some, some

634
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,920
supply out of the market.
You pave the picture that demand

635
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,480
is much like much higher and
growing much faster than most

636
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,560
the market is expecting.
A lot of the, the people who are

637
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,160
more, have a more moderate
outlook for lithium in, in the

638
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:21,760
short term.
They point to, you know,

639
00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:23,800
inventories are still very high,
but they're probably not

640
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,280
focusing on the fact that
inventory days is at a local low

641
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:27,440
because the market's much
bigger.

642
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,400
Now.
Is the market tight enough in

643
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,720
your opinion?
Like have we like is the market

644
00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:34,280
so tight that we're going to see
they're pretty pronounced move

645
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,800
forward and upward in the price
in your expectation?

646
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,640
Like is, are we, are we at that
moment right now?

647
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,760
Is this, is this a trend that's
going to continue or are we kind

648
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:44,240
of just going to like moderate
around, you know, 1000 bucks a

649
00:36:44,240 --> 00:36:47,480
tonne AC6?
I I think you're exactly right

650
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,240
that people are focusing on the
wrong inventory numbers,

651
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:54,760
absolute inventory levels.
Yeah, they matter, but it's the

652
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:58,480
days in, in usage that really,
really matters.

653
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:03,800
In a market that's growing 30% a
year, you need 30% more

654
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,640
inventory every single year.
So that number has to go up.

655
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:15,000
And you're also right that it's,
it's I think it's tightening in

656
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,680
the sense that we've not seen
rejections of shipments like we

657
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:24,840
saw in the last cycle.
So in the 2020 lithium up, was

658
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:29,440
it 2020 or 18 in the previous
lithium boom, boom and crash

659
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,080
during the crash shipments were
being rejected right from from

660
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,760
Australian producers.
We don't see that in this

661
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,720
market.
So something is going on.

662
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:40,640
We've heard that too.
We've heard that too.

663
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,800
There's been no observation of
any, any cargoes, yeah, like

664
00:37:43,840 --> 00:37:46,640
being, being being pushed back
or delayed or anything like

665
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:48,440
that, like it's been seen.
There must be speaking with the

666
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:49,680
same people.
YJ Yeah.

667
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,560
Yeah, yeah.
So I mean to the extent that and

668
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:57,640
and it's, and it's very weird.
I'm even hearing stories of low

669
00:37:57,640 --> 00:38:01,360
grade, even lepidolite being
refined together or or blended

670
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:04,560
into with sport, you mean.
And honestly, I have no idea how

671
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,240
the how this technical, the
technical process of this would

672
00:38:07,240 --> 00:38:10,200
work because it to my
understanding it's kind of

673
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:14,880
different processes.
But yeah, I think we've got to a

674
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,880
point where people are realising
the market is probably a little

675
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:21,800
bit tighter than they think.
I don't want to make any

676
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,720
speculation on prices where they
go in the short term because

677
00:38:27,240 --> 00:38:29,600
price forecasts I think are
inevitably wrong.

678
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:34,200
But we just need to step back,
take a look at the big picture

679
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,360
thing of incentive pricing and
whether or not we are there yet.

680
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:42,680
Right now $1000 barely covers
costs for Western Australian

681
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:46,920
players, Some of them.
So if you want the supply to

682
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:48,880
continue producing for the next
three years, it has to be here

683
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:53,880
or higher.
Does $1000 incentivize new for

684
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:55,760
spodumene?
Incentivize new supply to come

685
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,680
online?
Barely. 12,000 LC.

686
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:06,560
Is it enough for a new brine to
come online or new clay or DLEI?

687
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,720
Don't think so.
So we're not there yet.

688
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,440
It's, it's simple when you just
think of it in the with your

689
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,720
outlook and if you're, if you
have the same expectations on

690
00:39:17,720 --> 00:39:22,640
demand growth that you have.
Yeah, we, we, we're, we're

691
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,280
pretty reflective of this moment
as a, as a result of what, you

692
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,680
know, could, could be a
substantial policy shift

693
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,720
combined with, you know, demand
and market tightness all at the

694
00:39:30,720 --> 00:39:32,760
same time.
Like what do you think?

695
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,480
Like we, and also maybe our
listeners should be, should be

696
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,200
paying more and more attention
to.

697
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:46,400
The fact, the fact is that
supply growth is all baked in

698
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,760
all right.
People are producing, are

699
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,760
developing mines from the same
places where they know that

700
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,960
that's been a a deposit for the
last 1020 years.

701
00:39:56,240 --> 00:39:59,120
So to me, supply is no longer
surprising.

702
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:04,040
Demand is where people should
spend all their time analysing

703
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:09,520
and comparing versus forecasts.
I think EV adoption is growing

704
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,920
even faster than people think.
Yes, the US is slow and the US

705
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,800
media dominates headlines.
You know, it it articles coming

706
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,800
out of the US that say, oh, EV
sales are slowing makes no

707
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,680
sense, right?
It's growing, it's accelerating

708
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:29,400
in China, it's accelerating in.
Even, shall we say less

709
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:33,360
developed economies, they are
literally skipping the petrol

710
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,520
age.
They don't want cars.

711
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:37,200
They don't want petrol cars
anymore.

712
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:43,400
They are going straight for EVs.
BYD is sending their 7000 car

713
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,440
car car carrier ships everywhere
around the world.

714
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,560
That ship has gone to those
ships now.

715
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,720
Now they have a fleet.
Those ships have gone to

716
00:40:52,720 --> 00:40:57,120
Germany, they have gone up north
to my neighbor Malaysia, they

717
00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:02,480
have come to Singapore, Right.
So EVs are being exported all

718
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:06,720
around the world from China now.
And I think everybody should

719
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:11,560
focus their attention on demand.
It's growing so much faster.

720
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,000
Just look out for the confirming
data.

721
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,200
That's a, that's a really
interesting perspective, YJ

722
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:23,120
because the, the classical
capital market capital cycle

723
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,360
investor would always sort of be
taught to focus on supply

724
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:31,760
because supply is in a sense
easier to determine because the

725
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,680
speed at which you can turn a
mine on takes time.

726
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,760
And then you can, it would just
sort of base from there.

727
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,960
Whereas the demand side needs
you in a sense to understand

728
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,480
human psychology and these sorts
of things.

729
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,320
But but you sort of come at it
from the perspective of there's

730
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,480
enough confirming data.
If if you look backwards, which

731
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:51,800
people aren't doing to, to give
you that confidence to look

732
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,200
forward across all the sections
of the market, whether it's a VS

733
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,760
stationary storage and sort of
see that this, this is a real

734
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:00,120
sort of trend that's going to
continue.

735
00:42:01,720 --> 00:42:04,600
Well, well, mate, I literally
have a degree in economics.

736
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:08,880
And one thing that we actually
do see in economics is that

737
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,480
demand creates its own supply.
Yeah, yeah.

738
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,400
Lower prices like to more demand
the the demand.

739
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:16,880
It's not just about lower
prices, right?

740
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:19,160
I mean, if it's a very real
thing, if human.

741
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,240
The reflexivity of yeah, yeah,
the network.

742
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,520
Effects that come from I mean.
More and more correct.

743
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,480
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's not that supply creates

744
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,360
demand.
I mean, if you have a supply of

745
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,800
something, you still have to
convince people to want it.

746
00:42:32,240 --> 00:42:35,040
And then the more they want it
now, then your supply becomes

747
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:36,560
valued.
If you have.

748
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,720
Yeah, if there's something that
is not demand in demand, then

749
00:42:39,720 --> 00:42:41,000
you're never going to get a
price for it.

750
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:45,360
But if there's a demand for
something, it will drive, it

751
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,600
will change the market to create
supply.

752
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:50,560
So demand creates its own
supply.

753
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:55,160
I love that point.
YJ I'd, I'd, we'd love to, to

754
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:58,720
give you a bit of an overrated,
underrated, quick, quick fire,

755
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:01,520
quick, quick, quick, quick,
quick fire segment.

756
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,560
If you're, if you're open minded
and willing to give us your,

757
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,960
your salient views on on, you
know, hopefully I've got like 10

758
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,720
things written down here that
I'd love your overrated

759
00:43:10,720 --> 00:43:12,000
underrated.
I think we can add a couple as

760
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:13,720
well.
Yeah, the the couple ideas we

761
00:43:13,720 --> 00:43:14,880
will.
The first one's very easy

762
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:16,080
because we know what your
response is.

763
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:19,400
ESS overrated.
Underrated.

764
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,880
Not not loved enough, but.
Yes, massively underrated is the

765
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:26,000
the response.
Yeah.

766
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,320
It's not overrated, underrated,
but it's one of the other.

767
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,000
BYD or Tesla as an electric
vehicle maker?

768
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,240
Have you got a preference?
BYD.

769
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:41,880
Yeah, undeveloped Western
Australian spodumene projects.

770
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:47,320
Overrated or underrated?
Wow, sorry, Broad.

771
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:48,880
That's a broad, broad range,
man.

772
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,080
I know, I know, I said.
Undeveloped.

773
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:56,360
Undeveloped.
There are not many big deposits

774
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:57,880
left.
Mostly overrated, sorry.

775
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,240
We might have asked you this one
last time, but worth getting

776
00:44:02,240 --> 00:44:05,680
another take the the future
prospects of DLE.

777
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:12,600
I recently became a little bit
more convinced that DLE could

778
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:17,160
work, but at the same time it is
not easy to transplant to other

779
00:44:17,720 --> 00:44:20,240
brine fields.
Therefore probably still mostly

780
00:44:20,240 --> 00:44:22,960
overrated in in most people's
minds.

781
00:44:23,240 --> 00:44:25,320
I don't think that much DLE
supply comes online in the near

782
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,640
term.
Brazilian Spodumene.

783
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:32,960
Resilience.
Spodumene Brazilian.

784
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:34,560
Brazilian.
Brazilian.

785
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:39,800
Oh yeah, low cost supply will
continue to produce for a long,

786
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:40,800
long time.
Underrated.

787
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:44,560
Yeah.
Albemarle.

788
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:53,480
Broad, broad question.
Nah, neither overrated nor

789
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:55,200
underrated.
It's it's imbalance.

790
00:44:56,400 --> 00:44:58,280
Hong Kong listed lithium
producers.

791
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:01,080
Underrated.
Yeah.

792
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:06,120
How about investing in Chile for
for lithium production?

793
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:09,480
You really want to get into that
all.

794
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:22,600
You have to say is overrated
consolidation probability of

795
00:45:22,720 --> 00:45:27,200
Chinese downstream.
Low.

796
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,080
Yeah.
This one's sort of slightly

797
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,560
adjacent, but I know you've
you've covered it in the past.

798
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:38,520
Overrated or underrated Silver?
Ah, still underrated.

799
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:43,760
Beautiful YJ I've got, I've got
none, none left, but all I've

800
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,120
got is just appreciation for
your insights and you're making

801
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:50,480
the time to give give you a
salient use an analysis.

802
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,960
It's refreshing, it's
compelling, it's course for us

803
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,920
to to evaluate our own
assumptions in a, in a market

804
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:00,640
that's clearly growing rapidly.
And yeah, congratulations on

805
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:03,080
your awesome performance so far.
And and we hope you will come

806
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,360
back and and join us in the
future as as the market

807
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,880
continues to to develop here.
Oh, yeah, definitely.

808
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:11,440
Thank you guys again for the
opportunity to be on your show.

809
00:46:12,240 --> 00:46:16,120
Just happy that, yeah, now at
least we have a bit of a track

810
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,280
record to show potential
investors.

811
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:22,560
And I hope that you know this,
this gets our, you know, our

812
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:23,680
name out there a little bit
more.

813
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:25,880
Thank you.
Absolutely great to chat again

814
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,920
YJ, thank you.
Thank you.

815
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,040
Super Insights.
Super Insights makes me reflect

816
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:34,440
a lot yeah.
Big big big fan of IJ Big fan of

817
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:36,640
our partners which make our
production possible.

818
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,560
Big thanks to them A. 100% Axis
mineral Services, Sandy Ground

819
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:44,080
support Africa down under and
focus by market Tech mate.

820
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:45,440
Uduru.
Uduru.

821
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,680
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD's an idiot.

822
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,000
If you thought.
Any of this was anything other

823
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,520
than entertainment.
You're an idiot and you need to

824
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:55,320
read out a disclaimer.