Le Shrub: Fading the "Monkeys"

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What a treat we got you for you
today.

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Money mice, binge this on the
weekend.

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Get it in you, mate.
We've got a super long, riveting

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conversation with the one and
only the shrub today.

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Maddie wasn't here because we
can't depend on him, but we can

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depend on Axis mining
technology, mate.

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They are so dependable.
You know they're just supporting

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the everything you freaking need
in in in drilling orientation,

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mate.
The Oris, the Champs, the gyros,

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just get it in.
You depend on Axis more than you

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depend on Maddie.
Drillers, Geos and while you're

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at it, ADR, they've got a big
announcement coming.

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I'm getting excited for that
mate.

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But first we've got a, a pretty
awesome chat to share with the

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money miners.
And I think it's worth a bit of

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a a bit of a intro to who the
shrub is Trav, because he's not

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your your sort of everyday
mining equities fund manager

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that we kind of speak with.
He's he's a bit different and

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he's got a super interesting
background.

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So to start with how we kind of
came across him, I think is a

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good one to start the money
miners with.

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He he writes a fascinating sub
Stack refers to himself as, as

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the Shrub calls it a shrub
Stack.

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It's it's really fascinating.
It's riddled with memes, You

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know, he's got a great sense of
humour.

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It's entertaining, it's light to
read.

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He's on Twitter as well, but
he's got he's got a real bit of

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pedigree behind him.
So a, you know, pretty sort of

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stand out education did the sort
of banker route and then worked

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at a a hedge fund that became
quite famous for its its

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investments throughout the, you
know, the quote unquote big

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short era, the 2007 a financial
crisis and.

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Shorting subprime.
Exactly.

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And he thinks about things with
a a macro lens.

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He's got experience in, in
merger AB, in, you know, event

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driven trading, which makes his
style quite different to a lot

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of the other fundies we've
spoken with in the past and

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makes it particularly
fascinating to, to myself.

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And you know, some of some of
the topics he's written, written

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about rather in the in the past
couple months alone are just

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truly fascinating.
He, he has a real bent for

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holding real assets, which we
dive quite deep into.

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Commodities are obviously being
sort of first and foremost, the

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way he kind of writes about
election volatility, liquidity,

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you know, how the Fed is
thinking the, the dodgy data the

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Fed is operating on and how he
kind of jokes about this

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inflation.
The the famous or infamous yen

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carry trade that, you know, was
the, the big talking point of

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the, the first or second day of
diggers.

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That's now a, you know, distant
memory for a lot of us.

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So there's there's a lot of
juicy stuff and for for myself,

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he likes to summarise things
with a little snippet at the end

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of all this posts, you know, in
case you've got ADHD, just to

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make everyone's life easy.
Summarises his writing in in a

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few brief dot points, which
makes my life very easy and I

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think it makes his, the way he
explains things, you know, very

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digestible.
So I'm excited to to share our

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interview with Shrub.
A super different thinker and we

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get to the juicy commodity
stuff, which which you guys will

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love, but you know this, we're
going to talk to him all night,

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I think.
Let's get into it, Shrub.

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Welcome to money of mine.
Awesome.

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Great to have you guys.
We're really excited.

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I think this combo could go a
lot of different ways.

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I'm kind of excited to to to see
just where it goes.

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Where are we?
Such an exciting time.

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No, first of all, it's September
11th, so it's a very sad

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anniversary to start with.
But with regards to the market,

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it's I'm very excited to be
doing this for various reasons.

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First of all, obviously, you
know, I, I love mining.

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I love what you guys do, love
Australia, although I've never

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visited.
Well, like I've been trading it

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for 20 years for some, you know,
masochistic reason, it's a

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special market.
But but you know, more

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importantly, I kind of feel I'm
loving the timing that we're

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doing this show because people
are getting so bearish about

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commodities and energy that it's
it's a fun time to riff around

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it.
I mean, I, I even found myself

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bearish about it.
So, you know, there's one thing

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that I call Shravana, which is,
you know, Shravana is basically

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when you when you become your
own Contra.

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So it happens when you really,
really hate something so much

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that you should actually just
buy it.

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I'm not sure we're there yet,
but you know, I just wanted to

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throw it out there just so just
so we framed the discussion in

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an interesting way of where we
are.

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Absolutely.
We we are trawling through hated

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beaten up sort of stuff as as do
a lot of our previous guests on

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the show.
And as you sort of mentioned

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there, it's it's quite fitting
we're we're talking on a day

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like today.
We'll probably release this in a

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couple days time, but I just saw
oil hitting a three year low.

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Let's let's dive into to what
you're saying as it kind of

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relates to the the commodities a
bit deeper.

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I think I've got the opposite
of.

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Shrub varna, by the way, when I
love something so so much, I

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should just sell it.
Oh yeah.

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But that is Travana.
That is absolutely Travana.

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Because I, I, I do the same when
I get like, you know, when I get

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a really excited about a trade
and I'm oversized, I'm like, oh,

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hold on, this is when I got
screwed last time because I

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tripled up when I thought it's
going to be like, you know,

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it's, it's up 50% already.
Everyone's talking about it.

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And then you get carried away by
the media and you're like, Oh my

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God, you know, I've been right.
And this thing is up 50%, but

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it's going to go up another 50.
That's when you should actually

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just start selling.
Same thing with energy, by the

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way, like energy when oil was
above 100, you know, same thing

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with copper when you know, you
remember when everyone was

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saying copper is a hot new
thing?

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Like that was only like 6 months
ago by the way, like copper is

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going to go to the moon and it's
going to replace this and this

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and this and this and then AI
and copper.

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Like when you when you hear AI
plus a commodity, just get out.

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Except one that we can speak
about later, which is okay.

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Spoiler alert, Tin, that's about
it.

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I'd kind of bookmark that one
for the the end of the

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discussion.
That's a sort of a special

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feature.
The Tin Barons just look through

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the the chapter titles.
Tin tin Twitter is a special

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place, but getting into your
your kind of positioning shrub

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and what you've been writing
about lately, it's it's exactly

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what we're kind of talking about
there.

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It's a it's a high cash balance.
It's it's hedges on.

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So, you know, you've been
writing about this and sort of

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seeing the world from a, you
know, a kind of consistent theme

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for the last, you know, six
months longer, right?

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Yeah, yeah.
So basically, you know, the way

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my positioning changed probably,
you know, wise were three times

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throughout throughout the year
to start with in February, I

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think people were getting a bit
too bearish commodities in China

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and kind of like missing out on
the, you know, potential for a

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for a rallying commodities.
So my biggest position actually

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was Anglo American where I
bought it like 1718 quid.

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Also partly because I was
getting bullish on copper when

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it wasn't that loved and PGMS
like platinum, especially when

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it wasn't that loved and I wrote
quite a, quite a few pieces on

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platinum itself.
So I thought, you know, Anglo

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American was the best vehicle to
play that.

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It was a 1718 quid.
Everyone hated it for all the

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reasons.
And then, you know, suddenly BHP

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made a bid.
So £25 I said goodbye to Anglo

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American.
Elliot bought a stake in it.

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I think they probably bought my
shares when I was selling them

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my tiny position.
And you know, guess what,

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everyone who bought at 25 is now
baggy at 20 and hating the stock

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for all the reasons that we,
they hated it like six months

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ago.
But but you know, since I sold

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my Angler position, my mining
position, my mining portfolio

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shrunk a lot, which basically,
so you know, I got out of all

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the copper plays, got out of
Anglo, which was my main play.

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And I just stuck with a few
things that I thought were, I'm

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not going to say recession
proof, but I'm going to say like

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they would benefit from a both
recessionary environment that

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involves printing and high
deficits.

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And they will also benefit in
case there is no recession.

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So, you know, the, the two
commodities that I stuck with

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and I still, I'm still involved
in is platinum and tin.

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And then putting it all
together, you know where we are

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today.
The reason why I've been

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advocating a high cash balance.
And by that I mean like I'm at

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40% cash still for the last
month or so, more than a month,

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a couple of months now is the
environment is so uncertain

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that, you know, people can't
figure out where we are.

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And especially when it comes to
stuff that we that we love, like

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real assets like commodities and
energy and all these things.

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Like if you don't know where
you're going and the stocks

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aren't that cheap, then there's
a high probability of a big

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flush, which I think is what we
saw lately.

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Like in the last, you know, in
the last month or so, we've seen

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a proper flush in commodities
related to China fears and also,

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but also to positioning like,
you know, don't forget that

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people have have been long
commodities and energy since the

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war in Ukraine started.
So we're just seeing like growth

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fears, China fears and
positioning chess coming

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together and flushing out
things, which, you know, they

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could send them to interesting
levels.

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You know, oil hit a magic number
for me, 66.66 today.

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So that's that's an interesting
level.

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I mean, you know, bear in mind
it was at 85 like two months

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ago.
So you know, what I like seeing

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is I like seeing this
positioning rinsing and I

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actually don't really care about
these growth fears and nonsense.

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I just think the market is going
to be like, yeah, sure guys, I

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mean, China's slowing down.
Yeah, no shit, man.

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Like it's been slowing down for
like for like a few quarters

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already.
And and it's, you know, it can,

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it can easily turn the other way
around.

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So, you know, the way I see the
way I see it is I cash just

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allows you the flexibility to
try to play for bounces, to try

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to get interesting situations.
You know, those interesting

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situations don't have to be
mining.

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They could be in like, you know,
various other areas around.

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Like, you know, my biggest
position has been a handbag

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company for crying out loud for
the last month.

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So yeah, I'm pretty flexible
about how I how I see things.

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And you know, I don't want to
be, you know, I don't want to be

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in love with with the sector
itself.

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But what I do want to have is I
always want to have some

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exposure to commodities energy.
So for example, even throughout

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this mess, you know, I kept like
a 5% position in, in an energy

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services stock.
And even throughout this mess,

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you know, I kept like, you know,
a 7% position in platinum

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futures and I did keep, you
know, close to 5% position in

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kin exposure.
So, you know, you know, so just

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to summarise, I like to have a
high cash balance because of the

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uncertainty, but I also like to
not mess around too much and

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just go like complete bear or
complete bull.

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I want to have some core
exposure because some things

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you're not going to, you know,
you know, you won't be able to

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time certain things.
And I don't want to miss out on

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on a on a core theme that I
believe in by not having at

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least like a sensible position
size.

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You, you've got a, a background
in, in merger up and you write a

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lot about event driven
investing.

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How you kind of balancing the,
the portfolio between those sort

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of shorter data.
You know where you can see a a

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catalyst in the on the horizon
versus the stuff like you

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mentioned there the the plats,
the tin and the other real asset

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type investments that you might
hold for a for a little longer.

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00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,480
Yeah, that's a that's a great
question because I think that's

222
00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,880
where you make, you know, that
portfolio construction is where

223
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,320
you make the real money without
actually suffering big draw

224
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,920
downs.
So the way I see it is this when

225
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,680
first of all when the two come
together.

226
00:13:18,680 --> 00:13:26,400
So when you have a event driven
situation and the commodity

227
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,360
together that that makes it very
exciting.

228
00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,880
So like Anglo for example, you
know, Anglo was the reason why I

229
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:35,640
was really attracted to Anglo
was it was beaten up, but it had

230
00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,520
a very big soft parts discount.
So you know, if you if you look

231
00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,360
where it was trading versus
appears, you could justify like

232
00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,960
50 to 100% upside based on a
breakup value.

233
00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:50,560
So to me that was like it had an
event angle, but before people

234
00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:52,720
were talking about it and then
people became activists.

235
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:58,120
So that that drove the value
crystallisation.

236
00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,280
The trade was driven because
there was like a potential

237
00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:04,280
catalyst.
It was like a soft catalyst, but

238
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,360
it was a breakup value.
But there was like there was a

239
00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,640
potential catalyst.
So when something like that

240
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,600
happens to me, that's when I
size big.

241
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,440
So you know, Anglo was a very
meaningful position for me

242
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,600
because of the two things,
getting married together.

243
00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:20,240
The the thing that you were
talking to with Anglo, you know,

244
00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,120
being that, you know, pretty
serious discount to it's some of

245
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,800
the past value is probably the
exact same thing that you know,

246
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,000
BHP was attracted to.
Oh, absolutely, yeah,

247
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,120
absolutely.
Because you know, Anglo had a

248
00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:36,800
very had a very still has a
great portfolio of copper assets

249
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,240
and the market was basically
very myopic.

250
00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,560
And actually this is something
that's really worth highlighting

251
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,000
to your listeners because I'm
guessing there's a lot of retail

252
00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:50,200
investors so Anglo.
So let me just pick up where it

253
00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,600
was because it was a very
interesting lesson about how

254
00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,520
things happen.
So the stock started in

255
00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:01,200
November, it was at 22 bucks
November 23 and then they had a

256
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:08,000
big profit warning that sent the
stock to 16 and I remember

257
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:12,520
buying it three months later
like it's 17 ish around 1718.

258
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:18,080
So that profit warning were
basically driven by operational

259
00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:22,720
issues at their copper assets
that would that would basically

260
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:28,080
lead to delays.
Now, if you're a retail investor

261
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:33,480
and your stock is down from 22
to 16, but the operational

262
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,560
issues are resolved, will be
resolved and also just create a

263
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:41,680
delay versus a value
destruction, that's when you

264
00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:43,720
should be getting greedy and
buying the stock.

265
00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:48,240
But the hedge funds and the
short term investors, the way

266
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,520
they operate nowadays, they're
like, ah, crap, you know, they,

267
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:53,600
they missed 1/4 and they're
going to miss another 3/4 down

268
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,400
the line because they, they're
not going to resolve these

269
00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:56,920
operational issues for the next
12 months.

270
00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,640
Well, you know, guess what, I'm,
I'm not an institutional

271
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:01,840
investor.
I'm, you know, I'm just running

272
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,480
my own money and I'm like, you
know what, I can just buy this

273
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,320
because I, I know it's trading
at 16, but the breakout value is

274
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,480
30.
So I'll just buy this and sit on

275
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:10,480
it.
And I don't care if hedge funds

276
00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:12,200
are not going to buy it for the
next three months.

277
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:13,960
You know, they'll, they'll buy
it in six months.

278
00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,840
So that's when it's worth
getting a little bit smart about

279
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:23,680
these things and just say it was
the drop fundamentally justified

280
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,120
or was it because of, you know,
like a three month, 6 month

281
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,360
delay?
And you know, the market can be

282
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,560
very myopic around this,
especially when it comes to

283
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:34,560
mining and energy stocks, for
example.

284
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:39,000
Let's take it to the other side,
to the extreme side about how

285
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,720
they trade darling, like NVIDIA,
like NVIDIA is a three trillion

286
00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,920
company.
They delay their key product

287
00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,760
Blackwell by a few months, you
know, and the stock just doesn't

288
00:16:48,760 --> 00:16:52,240
do anything.
It stays at 3.3 trillion and

289
00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,160
then, you know, three months
later they sell it because of,

290
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,440
you know, some bad.
Well, I mean, they had good

291
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,240
results, but it was like a
selling news results.

292
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,520
But when they actually delayed
the Blackwell chip, you know,

293
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:07,280
the stock wasn't, it had a, it
had a blip, but it wasn't that

294
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,640
much of a blip In Anglo's case,
you know, they, they had an

295
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:14,720
operational issue and delay and
the stock lost like, you know,

296
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:18,920
it went from 22 to 16.
So that's the kind of situations

297
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:25,000
where it's more interesting to
be looking at for me, you know,

298
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:31,360
but, but, but, you know, going
back to the event versus the

299
00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:34,000
portfolio construction aspect,
you know, when, when you have

300
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:40,160
the event, the nice thing about
it is that you kind of have you

301
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:42,480
reduce your downside because
there's something to look

302
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:47,720
forward to if it makes sense,
you know, and that event could

303
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,920
be something else as well.
Like, I mean, I'll give you an

304
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:57,120
example of a stock I own, like I
own Metals X, which is a house

305
00:17:57,120 --> 00:18:01,440
favourite, the tin stock.
But you know, I've owned it for,

306
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:02,760
you know, I've owned it for a
while now.

307
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:04,920
I've owned it for like a couple
of years, three years.

308
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,920
You know, the event, the event
there is, is very soft.

309
00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,760
They're buying back stock.
So the only reason why the stock

310
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:13,840
isn't going down through all
this matter is because, well,

311
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,320
they, they finally started
buying stock because a third of

312
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:18,920
their market cap is cash.
So something like that, that has

313
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,400
an event angle.
You know, I'm kind of more

314
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:26,120
interested to be holding on
versus, you know, a stock that's

315
00:18:26,120 --> 00:18:29,280
full of cash that's doing
nothing with it and you know,

316
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:34,680
management is just asleep at the
wheel, which was the case with

317
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:40,240
Metals X for a while.
So I don't know if that answers

318
00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,080
the question.
Basically, you know, they're

319
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,280
just the, the event angle just
makes things a little bit better

320
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,520
with the whole thing.
There's two parts like in it

321
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:49,960
kind of ties in with the event
stuff, but like like with the

322
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,000
Anglo trade, like you know, two
parts of it are super

323
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,160
impressive. 1 is like your
impeccable timing on the entry,

324
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,960
but the other one was just your
impeccable timing on the exit as

325
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:01,600
well.
And given you've got the merger

326
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:06,480
up background, like you weren't
at all tempted to to, you know,

327
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,680
ride to completion or or see
what that pathway looked like?

328
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,000
Or were you just too
trepidatious because of the

329
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,880
complexity of that deal that,
you know, you just thought the

330
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:17,520
easy money's been made?
Yeah.

331
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,200
And actually I think it's
because of my merger R

332
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,040
background that I got out.
Otherwise I would have kept it.

333
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:30,240
I've been traumatised too many
times by broken deals,

334
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,480
especially when it comes and
I'll, I'll give you the, the

335
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:34,880
reasons which I've laid them out
when I sold the position, you

336
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:41,720
know, just to make it clear,
reason #1 was there, there were

337
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,440
politics involved.
So when there's politics

338
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,920
involved, I actually don't
really like betting on, on the

339
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,560
political outcome, especially
when it comes to mining.

340
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,720
So in the case of Anglo, the
South African elections were

341
00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:03,840
taking place a few months after,
yeah, a few, a few months after

342
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,880
the deal was announced.
So I was actually really

343
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:10,520
perplexed why BHP chose that
timing before the election

344
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,640
because it was obvious that it
was going to be a political.

345
00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,720
Talking point, you know, before
a major election in South

346
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,360
Africa, when you have, you know,
one of the biggest employers in

347
00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:24,360
South Africa being being taken
over by BHP, which the South

348
00:20:24,360 --> 00:20:27,640
Africans hate because, you know,
historically they've been

349
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,240
cutting investments in South
Africa.

350
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,360
So the politics really scared
me.

351
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,800
So that wasn't driving force why
I got out.

352
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,800
The second thing was from the
regulatory perspective, this

353
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,720
thing would have taken a year
plus.

354
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,880
So you know, when, when you're
sitting on a deal that's going

355
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,880
to take a year plus and you, you
know, the stock was at 25 and

356
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:52,920
the deal completion was like 28.
So I was going to make like 15%

357
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:56,160
after having made 50%.
I'm like, you know what, I'll

358
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,480
just leave that to the merger
RPS, if they want to sit on it

359
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,360
to make 15% / 1 year, you know,
be my guest.

360
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,240
And the third one were, were the
presidents.

361
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,760
And the presidents was
unfortunately, you know,

362
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:13,320
something I lived through and I
remember very clearly when when

363
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:18,840
these big deals get announced,
it usually marks, it's usually

364
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,880
near the top, not near the
bottom.

365
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:26,880
And these big deals in mining,
not only did they mark turning

366
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:31,000
points, they would also have a
high degree of failure.

367
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:40,240
So for example, BHP Rio 2007,
then I remember Anglo Extrata,

368
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:44,720
you remember Extrata.
So it was it was Anglo Extrata

369
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,400
fail.
Then I'm pretty sure it was

370
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,200
Anglo Glencore maybe what
approached or something that but

371
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,120
that didn't work out.
And then BHP Potash Corp.

372
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,720
Yeah.
So basically when when you have

373
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:04,160
these big deals, not only is
there a regulatory risk, but

374
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,760
there's also a very high
probability of failure.

375
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,040
That's why you know what, I just
took the money and run.

376
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,680
I like taking the money and
running away because you know,

377
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,120
when you make the easy money,
you know, just just get out and

378
00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:19,000
let the other guys fight for it.
It doesn't, doesn't matter.

379
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,640
And that's where we are.
You speak a good bit shrub about

380
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,960
racency bias and you kind of
bring it up there given your

381
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,800
experience sort of living and
investing through that 708

382
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,800
period and you've made some
interesting parallels.

383
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,080
I'm really keen to learn from,
you know, your lessons back

384
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,480
then, what you see sort of
similar to that time period and

385
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,360
I guess importantly, what you
see kind of differently right

386
00:22:43,360 --> 00:22:45,440
now when you when you make that
reflection.

387
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:48,920
Yeah, it's a great question, JD.
So basically the The thing is

388
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,760
this what we lived through, I
mean with even with all the

389
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:57,480
algos and all the with all the
algos running the market, I

390
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,480
think, you know, portfolio
managers will always have a

391
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:04,600
recency bias, which is they will
think what they went through and

392
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,320
they will always they will
always be more inclined towards

393
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,800
those scenarios.
And I think that's a very, very

394
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:16,680
dangerous situation to be in.
That's why I just like to bring

395
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,400
up, that's why when I write
about these things.

396
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,480
And by the way, I write a lot to
help myself as well.

397
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:26,080
That's how I started writing.
I basically write.

398
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,360
And when I, when I find myself
mentioning 2007, 2008, I'm

399
00:23:30,360 --> 00:23:32,600
always aware.
And that's why I always mention

400
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:37,680
reason to bias because I want to
find another president that

401
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,080
might contradict the one I lived
through.

402
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,800
So for example, I didn't live
through 1976.

403
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:54,280
So so so basically I I always
want to compare it with if I if

404
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,960
I have 1970, if I have 2008 I
want to compare it to like 1976

405
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:00,160
and.
You've done some fascinating

406
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:05,200
stuff, you know, and analysing
the the 1960s as well with the

407
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:06,880
accommodative policy on a sort
of.

408
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:11,200
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, exactly.
So for example, the, the reason

409
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,280
why, so we're, we're at a great
peace, peace with my friend

410
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,640
alliance where we basically, you
know, we, we asked the, the what

411
00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:26,120
if situation when, when Powell,
because Powell right now is

412
00:24:26,120 --> 00:24:30,200
about to make a, is about to
kick start the Fed cutting

413
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:35,440
cycle, the rate cutting cycle.
So that's when it triggered the

414
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:39,280
what if because there was a
chart that was going around

415
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,360
comparing it to 2007 and there
were some really scary

416
00:24:42,360 --> 00:24:45,840
parallels, to be honest, with
2007, but only from like a very

417
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,920
meme aspect.
So for example, you know, the,

418
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:59,560
the, the Fed cut rates in
September 18th, 2007 and the Fed

419
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,800
meeting is on September 18th,
2024.

420
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,040
So you know, it's kind of like
it's nonsense.

421
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,200
It shouldn't mean anything,
right?

422
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,280
But it's very mean.
So people are going to be like,

423
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,400
Oh my God, because the market
fell and then it rallied to all

424
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,600
time highs and then it was a big
crash.

425
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,320
So if you put them all together,
there were quite a few

426
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,520
similarities between the two
periods.

427
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,760
But again, just from a technical
standpoint and a very mean

428
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,560
standpoint.
So you put the two together and

429
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,240
it's like, Oh my God, it looks
like 2007 and we're so screwed.

430
00:25:33,120 --> 00:25:37,200
So, so we started with that and
then, you know, I was just

431
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,120
thinking through what was going
on in 2007 that was very

432
00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:43,600
different to today.
And one thing that was very,

433
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,880
very different was that the
banks didn't have any capital.

434
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,800
So whatever you compare with
2007 was guys in 2007 the banks

435
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,840
had like zero capital, I'm
talking about 1/5 to 110th of

436
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,280
what they have now.
So you know, 1% loss in their

437
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,120
loan book blew up the whole
system.

438
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,320
Right now, you know, we're
really, really far away from

439
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:10,640
that.
Like we are very far away from a

440
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:14,640
credit crunch because of the
capital buffers at the banks,

441
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:18,080
which is one thing we did well
after the GFC, we recapitalized

442
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,200
the banks.
That's the first thing.

443
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,360
The second thing that is very
different, I think, and is

444
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:29,920
that's why we bring the 1960s
and 1970s parallels is, you

445
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:35,240
know, we asked, you know, what
if we we change regime, you

446
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:39,800
know, our recency bias leads us
all to think that oh, we're the

447
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,520
risk is deflation.
Like it's 2007 and the risk is

448
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:47,000
deflation, but we just came out
of a very recessionary.

449
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:49,840
You know, we had a few
recessionary events,

450
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,400
inflationary events like COVID
ended up, ended up being an

451
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,000
inflationary event because we
printed like 10 trillion or

452
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,320
something.
And then the war in Ukraine was

453
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:03,000
an inflationary event.
And you know, these cycles take,

454
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,800
take a long time.
So I can also draw you a

455
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,720
parallel with the 60s and the
70s.

456
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:14,680
We're in the 60s, you know, we
had a, we had again, like a very

457
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,480
growth, you know, the focus was
on growth, governments were

458
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:22,880
spending on growth, the focus
was on growth and it ended up

459
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,520
leading into an inflationary
environment in the 70s.

460
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:28,200
You know, that's how we got
there.

461
00:27:28,360 --> 00:27:32,000
So we start, you know, these
things take time and it's very

462
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,680
difficult to change them.
So like if in the 60s we're

463
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:40,280
stimulating for growth, We, it
really showed in the 70s when we

464
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,640
had like a proper inflationary
cycle.

465
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:47,560
And the year I like to drop
parallels with is actually

466
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:53,400
747576 whereby, you know, those
were, you know, one of them was

467
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:59,440
an election year as well,
whereby you know, during, during

468
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,480
the election year, I can't
remember if it was 75 or 76, we

469
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,200
that was when inflation was
dropping actually, and the

470
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:11,400
market had a rally.
But the following year 76

471
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,120
inflation picked up again and
the market collapsed.

472
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:19,880
So if you put the parallels, if
you actually plot the inflation

473
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,200
trajectory in the 70s to the
inflation trajectory now, it

474
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:29,520
actually attracted more closely
than in 2000s because inflation

475
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,360
likes to have a dip and then a
rally.

476
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:38,800
And in that dip, it's going to
just confuse people and say, oh,

477
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:42,280
you're, you're heading into
deflation made so you better cut

478
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,920
rates.
And guess what?

479
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:48,360
Once they cut rates 50 bips,
maybe inflation keeps going

480
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,280
down.
Once they cut deflation under 50

481
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:54,080
bips, maybe it stabilises.
But you know, trust me, with all

482
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,040
the money in the system, if they
cut rates by like 200 bips,

483
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,480
would you be surprised if
inflation picks up and growth

484
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,440
picks up and you know, the
monkeys are out in full force

485
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,080
and just go crazy again?
Because, you know, I, I think

486
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,920
it's a high probability event,
but the problem with this is

487
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,440
that you don't know when the
turn is going to happen.

488
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,360
And that's what's confusing a
lot of people.

489
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,640
And that's why I love the idea
of having, you know, the cash

490
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:23,320
there with some core positions.
So when, when you see it

491
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,360
happening, you're there to take
advantage of it.

492
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,640
You're not down 50% already.
Let's put it this way.

493
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,640
I think that's, that's the
important thing because you

494
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:36,960
know, if we're having a debate
between 2007 and 1976, we're

495
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,800
talking about like 2 complete
polar opposite, opposite

496
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,360
outcomes.
So you really don't want to get

497
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,640
caught being wrong on that part.
And that's why I keep having

498
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:49,520
this debate.
I keep writing about it because

499
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:53,000
I just think it's really, really
important for people to, to and

500
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,600
for me as well to, to get this
right.

501
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,800
This this comfortability that
you have with the inability to

502
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:04,600
to time the big macro Inflexion
points is such a common theme in

503
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:09,000
in your in your career.
Like, yeah, it, it was just in

504
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,280
the preparation for the episode.
It's kind of enlightening to

505
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,680
just hear the way you you talk
about, you know, in the, in the,

506
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,320
in the housing crisis, you know,
paying, paying 1% insurance per

507
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,120
per year and then waiting three
years and not getting paid.

508
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:23,840
But then finally John, John
Windfall.

509
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:27,480
And and that was the that was
the best trade of the the people

510
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,320
who would, you know, short
subprime.

511
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:35,560
Yeah, and and like he's has your
relationship kind of evolved

512
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,120
over time with just, you know,
wanting to time these kind of

513
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,320
events, you know, precisely or
you just, you just kind of get

514
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:44,480
more and more comfortable with
the inability to do.

515
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,720
I, I, I think one, one thing I
learned from, you know, I mean,

516
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,800
my, my boss at the time was a
genius, no question about it.

517
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:58,280
And I think one thing he did, he
did right and kind of instilled

518
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:03,120
to me, I mean, there there's two
key, key differences.

519
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:08,080
So the way he did it, you know,
the way he structured the trade,

520
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,880
the subprime trade was just so
smart in the sense whatever

521
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,560
happened, he would be OK.
I think that's, that's the key

522
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,600
takeaway.
And that's the, that's the

523
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,520
takeaway I got from it.
And that's why when I, when I

524
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:26,920
get these asymmetric calls or,
you know, when I do like a hedge

525
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:32,080
or, or take one of these swings,
you know, I, I want to do it in

526
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:36,320
a way that if I get it wrong,
I'm not going to get hurt.

527
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,360
So I think the genius of the
subprime structure was there

528
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,960
were a lot of guys that were
short subprime, but in 2004 and

529
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:47,480
they all blew up by 2006.
Whereas the way we had

530
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:53,520
structured it in the fund of the
time was spend 1% a year.

531
00:31:54,440 --> 00:32:00,240
If it works out, you're going to
make like 10X would ended up

532
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,600
being much more.
If it doesn't work out, you lose

533
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,640
1%, but in the meantime, your
portfolio, the rest of your

534
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:12,280
portfolio will do really well.
So, so lesson number one was,

535
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:17,120
you know, sizing it to a point
that that you, you don't get

536
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,200
hurt and sizing it to a point
that it makes a big difference

537
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,080
if it works out because, you
know, the other side of the

538
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,920
trade is there were quite a few
other people short subprime at

539
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:28,760
the right time, but they didn't
make much money out of it.

540
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,400
You know, they were like some
funds were, you know, short

541
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,200
subprime in 2008 and they were
ended up the year flat.

542
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,400
Whereas, you know, the fund I
was working at was up more than

543
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,400
100% and one of the funds was up
600%.

544
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:48,880
So, you know, lesson #1 is the
sizing in a way that it doesn't

545
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:53,440
kill you, but in a way that you
profit well, if it works out

546
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:59,960
like it makes a difference Right
now when when I'm running my own

547
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:05,160
money and I don't have, I don't
have much and I have to be like

548
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,520
very, very fickle with my, with
my own timing.

549
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:16,120
Right now I'm more paranoid
about the timing than I was when

550
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,840
I was at a fund.
And that's why I spend a lot of

551
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,040
time about like, I don't really
want to like, you know, there's

552
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,800
funds that do these tail risk
hedges, for example, and these

553
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,800
tail risk hedge funds, they do
it every month.

554
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,120
They spend a little bit on puts
and they spend a little.

555
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,720
Like, I think that's nonsense.
It's nonsense because every

556
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,040
month is different and I want to
and I want, I don't want to

557
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:42,920
spend every month a certain
amount of money because on puts,

558
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:44,280
like it doesn't, doesn't suit
me.

559
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:46,920
That's why I, you know, the high
cash balance makes that up for

560
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,920
me.
But what I want to do is, you

561
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,040
know, if the market is at, at a
very high point, I want to,

562
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,840
that's when I want to just
allocate some money and puts,

563
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,960
for example.
Or when the, when the market is

564
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:03,440
at a low point, that's when I
want to allocate some, some

565
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:06,600
money in calls.
Because, you know, lesson #3 I

566
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,920
think is people talk about
hedges always about, oh, it's

567
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:11,639
going to go down a lot.
It's like, but yeah, but you

568
00:34:11,639 --> 00:34:13,840
also have to be prepared if it's
going to go up a lot.

569
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:18,159
And so, you know, sometimes when
things are low, you want to buy,

570
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:20,320
you want to spend some money in
calls.

571
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,800
So for example, now oil is at
66, you know, I should be

572
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,960
sitting down and looking at
$80.00 calls for December, for

573
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:30,320
example.
You know, you want to, you want

574
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:35,080
to be positioned both for a very
bad event, but also for a very

575
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:36,440
good event.
Unfortunately, in the case of

576
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,440
oil, a very good event could be
a very bad event for the rest of

577
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,880
the world.
So there's geopolitics evolved,

578
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:43,719
but you know where I'm getting
with this.

579
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:50,760
So basically you, it's worth
being careful when it's your own

580
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:56,320
money not to overspend on these
tail hedges and to be very

581
00:34:56,320 --> 00:35:01,200
careful, one, on the timing and
two on what you're spending it

582
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,760
on.
So for example, you know, you

583
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:07,200
want to spend it on SMP puts or
do you want to spend it on oil

584
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,120
coals or do you want to spend it
on bond puts or bond calls?

585
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:16,800
So and you know, the, the as
stupid as it sounds, but you

586
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:20,560
know the easiest thing well, 11
good rule of thumb is to just

587
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,880
see if which one of the asset
classes is at an extreme level.

588
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:28,160
So if it's a, if it's really
beaten up, think about calls, if

589
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:29,640
it's really high, think about
polls.

590
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,680
I mean, it sounds really stupid
and simple, but to be honest it

591
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:34,440
kind of is.
Like investing is not rocket

592
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,480
science, so.
I, I find your, your commentary

593
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:40,880
on, on timing really interesting
there shrub, because I, I think

594
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,200
the, you know, the thinking a
lot of people would have is you

595
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,240
going from working within,
within a hedge fund in that

596
00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:48,800
environment to managing your own
money.

597
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:51,680
The, the sense of timing, the
pressure on timing would be

598
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:53,320
relaxed.
So is it, is it kind of true in

599
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,840
a sense that the reverse is also
true of what you say that the

600
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:00,520
pressure is put on you by, by
yourself or, or you know, is

601
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,680
that kind of your, your thinking
on, on timing?

602
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,640
It's, it's very different
because it's a, you know, a

603
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,360
different amount of money and
you've got perhaps different

604
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,400
risk parameters that you put on
yourself.

605
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:16,240
Yeah.
So look, I think it's definitely

606
00:36:16,240 --> 00:36:19,760
more flexible, but I think the
nice thing about the timing is,

607
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,600
you know, the rules of the game
change when it's running your

608
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:29,400
money versus running a fund.
So yeah, I'm more paranoid on

609
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,880
timing, but that's because I,
you know, I don't have the

610
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:39,360
capital of a fund, but also the
fund might have to be hedged for

611
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,880
the whole period.
So, you know, when I was running

612
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:46,800
a fund, for example, that, you
know, I had a very high

613
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,640
restriction of almost 0 beta
exposure.

614
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:58,400
So I had like a 10 percent, 10 +
10 -, 10% beta constraint.

615
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,920
So that means for, you know,
like for every 100 long, you

616
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,800
could only be like 90 short or
110 short.

617
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:10,200
So I didn't have that
flexibility to, to move too much

618
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:13,280
around it.
And that's, that's actually

619
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,640
very, very stressful by itself
because when the market

620
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,160
collapses and there's not much
you can do, and when the market

621
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,920
rallies a lot, there's not much
more you can do.

622
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:25,400
Whereas when you're running your
own money, you have a lot of

623
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,600
flexibilities that are in your
advantage.

624
00:37:28,240 --> 00:37:31,320
So sure, you have the, you have
the issue of the, you know,

625
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,840
timing it and capital
constraint.

626
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,560
But on the other hand, you can
also choose to do nothing,

627
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,800
right?
You can just say, you know what,

628
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,000
this month doesn't look good.
I'm just going to sit back.

629
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,520
I'm going to be all cash, you
know, screwed.

630
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,120
I'm just going to be all cash.
I never do that, by the way.

631
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,160
But I, I, I, I do go to 50% cash
if I want to.

632
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:50,720
So that's, that's the one thing
you can just choose to do

633
00:37:50,720 --> 00:37:57,200
nothing #2 is you can choose to
be 100% long or 100% short.

634
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:01,640
Now that's something you cannot
do in a fund, in a hedge fund at

635
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:06,280
least.
My own personal constraints

636
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:12,320
here, by my own personal
discipline here tells me that I

637
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:17,160
do go 100% long, but I very
rarely go net short.

638
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:20,600
And by net short, I mean for
every 100 long I have 100 short.

639
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:26,960
Like I usually just try to be
like 100 long, 50 short as a,

640
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:31,320
you know, when I want to be
edged or, you know, fearful,

641
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,800
let's say so, So you know, the
easy, let's put it this way, the

642
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:40,120
easy way to make money as a
retail investor, I think is to

643
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:50,520
be only long and buying dips on
big pukes and then just ride

644
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,960
them out and take the money
again and run and do it again.

645
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,480
But you know, no, not with all
your money.

646
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,040
You can do it with like half
your money or something.

647
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:58,440
I think if someone did that,
they would do really, really

648
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,000
well.
I mean, no one has a discipline

649
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,160
to do it, but you know, it's in
theory, it's really cool, No?

650
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:05,480
Reminds me of one of your your
tweets.

651
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:07,320
It was something to be
effective.

652
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,280
You know, everyone tries to be a
genius and and do all these

653
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,160
macro trades, but in you know,
reality you'll make way more

654
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,920
money just earning a couple of
equities and riding them to the

655
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:23,400
moon dude. 100% Like I, I, if I
look at, you know, I basically

656
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,280
do a review of my year every
time and I look at where I've

657
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:33,280
made the returns and it's
basically, you know, one or two

658
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,200
stocks a year.
And it, you know, they, they

659
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,320
tend to be diverse as well.
Like I was thinking, you know,

660
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,040
2020 I had a 10 bagger in plug
tower, which is like a hydrogen

661
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:50,120
Ponzi stock. 20/21 it was a
recycling stock, 10 bagger.

662
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,120
It's also, it was also Ponzi
2022.

663
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:56,600
It was, you know, long energy,
short tech.

664
00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:59,040
That was my trade that worked
really well because I mean, it

665
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:00,440
was the Ukraine war and all that
stuff.

666
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:07,520
You know, in 2324 I did, I mean,
24 was Anglo American and

667
00:40:07,720 --> 00:40:10,000
biotech and 23 was biotech
again.

668
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:11,920
So you know, go figure.
I mean, there's so many

669
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:16,880
opportunities everywhere and
it's, you know, it's good to

670
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,920
have an open mind around it, but
especially if you, if you know,

671
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,720
sorry, I forgot about the
lithium as well.

672
00:40:21,720 --> 00:40:26,040
So 20 two must have been lithium
or 21.

673
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,880
I forgot like a patriot medals.
One of your Aussie listed stocks

674
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:31,600
that was a yeah, it was a 10
bagger.

675
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:35,880
Thanks to a good friend of ours
called the Koala on Twitter.

676
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:37,240
I'm sure you know the Koala we
know.

677
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:39,760
The koala we are, we have.
Yeah, I know.

678
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:40,760
I know.
You know, the koala.

679
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,520
So, yeah, you know, bless him.
You know, he, he got me in.

680
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:49,680
You know, maybe that was one,
one of the things that inspired

681
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,200
me to write that tweet because
yeah, we what he talked me

682
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,360
through the thesis.
The stock was at like 30 cents.

683
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,440
It was like, oh man, this is
like a no brainer.

684
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:00,440
This stock, the stock went to 6
bucks.

685
00:41:02,240 --> 00:41:05,720
I've been, I was selling it down
at 6 bucks and I think it went

686
00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:09,240
up to 18.
I was out at six, but I went to

687
00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:11,200
18.
Like, you know, proper

688
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:15,680
retirement rate if you sized it.
You, you've said some other

689
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,640
really interesting stuff about
your, your mindset in the past

690
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,720
Shrub that I want to kind of
zoom in on as well.

691
00:41:21,720 --> 00:41:24,120
The, the thing that really stood
out to me is talking about, you

692
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,600
know, putting putting safeguards
around you And I guess kind of

693
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:31,280
playing into what you've just
said there with a a longer term

694
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,280
time horizon on some of your
trades, you know, mentioning

695
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:37,160
Buffett and manga and how they
kind of look at situations.

696
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,520
But what, what really stuck at
was that you said you don't have

697
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,480
an, an online account per SE.
You, you sort of put your emails

698
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,680
in and you actually speak with
a, a trader or broker to, to

699
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:50,320
kind of execute to just have an
additional layer of safety and I

700
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,400
guess help you think through
trades.

701
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,600
Is that the kind of rationale as
to why you do and operate in

702
00:41:55,600 --> 00:42:01,840
that way?
Yeah, I think it's, you know, I

703
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,120
have weaknesses and I'm I'm
learning about these weaknesses

704
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:10,640
as I go.
And I found that when I was when

705
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,720
I had an online account, you
know, you get to get trigger

706
00:42:14,720 --> 00:42:16,680
happy.
So for example, you get more

707
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:23,280
reactive to news, for example.
So let me just stupid example

708
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,080
would be it's the middle of the
night and there is a headline

709
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,200
about some policy change in the
US and the futures are down 50

710
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:33,160
BPS and you panic and you're
like, Oh my God, let's just use

711
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,320
an example.
Apple gets fined for 20 billion

712
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:38,800
and the NASDAQ is down 50 BPS
and you're like, Oh my God,

713
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,120
that's going to collapse the
NASDAQ.

714
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,800
So you go short the NASDAQ
reacting on the headline and

715
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,800
it's, you know, 10:00 PM at
night and you've had a few

716
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:51,240
drinks and you think that it is
a big short and you lever your

717
00:42:51,240 --> 00:42:54,560
account to short the NASDAQ.
And then the next day the

718
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,440
Americans come in, you know, AKA
the, and all the what I, what I

719
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,960
like to say the, you know, the
monkeys come in basically and

720
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,000
they're like, oh, who cares
about a fine by the year on

721
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,960
Apple, You know, Apple's a great
company and they just send the

722
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,240
NASDAQ futures 1% up and you're
like, Oh my God, why did I do

723
00:43:09,240 --> 00:43:10,680
that?
Why did I have a drink and trade

724
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,840
futures?
Just using it as a simple

725
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:18,800
example, whereas I found that if
you call someone, email someone

726
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:24,640
or write out to someone your
trade it, it introduces a net,

727
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:28,120
another layer between you and
hitting the button.

728
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:34,000
And actually this is one reason
why I was tweeting out my trades

729
00:43:34,000 --> 00:43:38,760
and now I write them down on sub
stack is it's actually it

730
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,080
started off as like it still is.
It's another layer of security

731
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:47,440
for me, the fact that I sat
down, thought about it and I

732
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:51,200
always think, what if like a
grandma reads one of my tweets

733
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:55,920
and you know, goes crazy on, on
a stock and blows up.

734
00:43:56,440 --> 00:44:00,040
So, you know, like, kind of like
that's what I, I like to think

735
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:04,160
about the risk and what I do.
I mean, you know, what I do is

736
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,120
parody anyway.
So you know, I, I always tell

737
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:07,480
people what I do is a complete
joke.

738
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:13,200
But but you know, when, when you
write it out and when you tweet

739
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:17,880
it out and you put out to the
public, you always have another

740
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:23,280
layer of thinking around it and
just framing your upside and

741
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,040
your downside and what can go
wrong.

742
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:26,760
And I, I just find that very
helpful.

743
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:30,320
And if I was going to give one
advice to, to people, I mean, I

744
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:32,960
don't, you know, nothing I give
as advice because it's, you

745
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,600
know, all I'm doing is I have a
parody account on Twitter and a

746
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:40,160
parody publication Substack.
But you know, if you write down

747
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:45,120
your trades or keep keep a diary
or write down the trade before

748
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:48,240
you do it, you know why you're
doing it, you'll see that you

749
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,640
you will improve your, your hit
rate.

750
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:54,160
I think just on that.
But the shrubs got some pretty,

751
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,160
pretty important fair points
there when it comes to

752
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:00,240
safeguarding, you know yourself
from a bad trade.

753
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,160
It's kind of kind of reminds me
a little bit of what the

754
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,320
internal decision making must be
like if you're trying to

755
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:11,960
safeguard your mind site from a
complete power fuck up, how what

756
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,280
like you know, if you if you're
trying to do that, what would

757
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:15,920
you do?
From from my vast experience,

758
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,400
Trav in in building mines.
What I do is I've just got

759
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:22,320
Silverstone on speed dial.
It just makes your life that

760
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:24,600
much easier.
And I mean it's any sort of

761
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:27,600
power, you know, Jen says
diesel.

762
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,960
You want to bust people around
EVs water, they can do water

763
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:36,360
mate, piping it moving around.
I think it's just the the go to

764
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,400
number everyone should have on
speed dial, anything power

765
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,360
related and almost anything
else.

766
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:42,440
I mean there's not much
surveying.

767
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:43,600
They do pretty much everything
right.

768
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:45,800
Like safeguard it.
I just feel safe.

769
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:47,240
We're not.
When Kenny Keogh is in my

770
00:45:47,240 --> 00:45:48,640
presence, he just makes me feel
at ease.

771
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,200
He's just lives it.
He's a man of people that goes

772
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,400
there himself, mate, I am.
Mate if you want a voted

773
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,760
confidence you need any more
than that I mean just look at

774
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,640
the bloody clients have worked
with BHB, Roy Hill, Northern

775
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:03,280
Star, Pilbro, Minres, IGOI mean
need I go on I.

776
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:05,320
Don't feel very safe with
Minres, but we'll move on.

777
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:11,200
They did a good job.
All right, back to the trop in

778
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:16,040
the world of commodities, why
like why are you kind of drawn

779
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:19,720
to to them, you know, especially
kind of now when you're trying

780
00:46:19,720 --> 00:46:23,160
to pick a bottom, like what is
it about commodities that in the

781
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,760
backdrop of the, the macro
environment you kind of describe

782
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,120
that you know, you're enticed
to?

783
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:35,040
Nick, because I think
commodities should be an

784
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,160
integral part of the portfolio
to start with.

785
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,920
There is a Regency bias because
I was doing commodities in 2007,

786
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:48,880
2008 and in the, let's call it
super cycle when China was, was,

787
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,440
was going crazy about it.
But even after that, commodities

788
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:57,360
is something that we'll always
be using.

789
00:46:57,440 --> 00:47:02,040
I don't care about AI, No AI.
We will always be using

790
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:09,680
commodities and there is a
constant, what's the word,

791
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:15,280
complacency around supply.
So you know that that's number

792
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,280
one, it's something tangible as
well.

793
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,960
So when it's something tangible,
you know, I kind of like like

794
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,360
the like hard assets in general,
just owning something that is

795
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:25,800
tangible.
Except for the Ponzis you've.

796
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,840
Seen before yeah.
Look, I, I have no, I have no

797
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:31,800
intubation buying Ponzi's if
they're going to go up.

798
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:35,320
So I, I don't mind that.
I don't mind that.

799
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,360
And actually I think like my
best portfolio constructions has

800
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,880
been actually a barbell approach
whereby on the one side of the

801
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:45,120
barbell I have commodities and
on the other side I have

802
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:48,080
biotech, which, you know, I
affectionately call them

803
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:49,320
Ponzi's.
But you know, some of them could

804
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,600
change the world, you know, some
of them could save save lives.

805
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:55,000
But you know, biotechs like to
burn cash, so that's why I call

806
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:58,200
them Ponzi's.
So this barbell approach, I

807
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,880
actually really like
constructing My Portfolio this

808
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:03,720
way.
But you know, but the thing

809
00:48:03,720 --> 00:48:09,080
about commodities as well is on
a, on a bigger scale with the

810
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,880
amount of deficits that we're
running, with the amount of

811
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:16,080
printing that went on over the
years, you really have to be

812
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:20,440
thinking about inflation,
structural inflation.

813
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:25,680
And that goes back to the 2007
versus 2019 76 scenario.

814
00:48:26,200 --> 00:48:31,040
And that's why I get drawn in
commodities because, you know, I

815
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:35,080
want to have that hard asset
inflation protection in My

816
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,440
Portfolio.
And it's a question whether that

817
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:45,640
should be 5% or, you know, 50%.
You know, right now I'm probably

818
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:50,480
like, I'd say like I'm below
20%, but you know, I've been as

819
00:48:50,720 --> 00:48:55,760
high as 60 and you know, below
20% is basically where, you

820
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,240
know, just because I have long
term positions that I'm not

821
00:48:58,240 --> 00:49:01,440
selling.
But you know that that's the

822
00:49:01,440 --> 00:49:03,280
summary about commerce.
I think it should be an integral

823
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:05,320
part of the portfolio.
I think they're always

824
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:07,320
underestimated.
I think there's complacency

825
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:11,640
around supply and I think
there's also complacency because

826
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,280
the narrative shifts so much.
I think there is complacency

827
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:17,160
about the possibility about
structurally high inflation.

828
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:21,200
And also geopolitics does still
play a part, right?

829
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:27,360
You know, you look at and with
geopolitics, I also mean, you

830
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:29,760
know, permitting like, OK,
everyone hates copper now.

831
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:33,320
I actually don't have any copper
exposure either, to be honest at

832
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,120
at this moment.
But you know, there's there's no

833
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,520
permitting.
And where's the supply coming

834
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,600
from?
And, you know, in Panama, they

835
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:45,000
shut down a mine.
So OK, now we're in a Lao.

836
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,440
But if the man actually picks
up, well, where's the cobra

837
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,200
going to come from?
You know, this could take two

838
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,640
years, who knows?
But you know, these things do

839
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:54,760
hit a wall eventually.
So it's as simple as that.

840
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,800
I love how you you write about
the monkeys that you kind of

841
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:02,240
referenced before Shrub and you
know, the the kind of

842
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:06,280
commonplace derision that you've
got to to Wall Street and you

843
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:07,840
know everyone and in and around
it.

844
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:12,040
And I think it kind of extends
to to policy makers as well.

845
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,520
How do you think about, you
know, a lot, a lot of the key

846
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:18,760
bits of data that you you talk
about, you write about with the

847
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:22,040
you know, pretty, pretty
consistent revisions that we

848
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,880
that we see.
Obviously the the non farm

849
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:29,000
payroll jobs is the the go to
example, But how do you think

850
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:34,120
about sort of navigating markets
with, you know, such flawed data

851
00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:40,160
in a sense?
Oh yeah, basically I think

852
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:44,560
people are always, I used to
take the data at face value as

853
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,000
well, so you know, and I think
most people do.

854
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,840
So they see a number hit the
screen and they're like, Oh my

855
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:51,960
God, no.
Non farm payroll, payrolls are

856
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,560
up 200,000 this month.
Great.

857
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,240
The economy is doing great.
Labour's doing great and I used

858
00:50:58,240 --> 00:51:00,320
to take things at face value
too.

859
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:05,320
And then I ended up going down
the detail and I wrote a

860
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:08,400
detailed piece about it where I
was looking at all the revisions

861
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:11,320
that were taking place.
And by the end of it I was like,

862
00:51:11,320 --> 00:51:15,360
Oh my God, this is just
completely made up because they

863
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:20,080
were, you know, when it comes to
inflation data, it's, I mean,

864
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:23,000
let's start with inflation data,
which is a bit of an easier 1.

865
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:28,280
So inflation data when as a
seasonally adjusted factor to

866
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:31,000
it.
So I remember clearly a few

867
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:39,440
months ago inflation came hot
but CPI came hot but PPI came

868
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,480
cold.
And I figured when I went to the

869
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:49,720
detail, I found that gasoline
was up in one of them, but down

870
00:51:49,720 --> 00:51:52,760
in the other one because of a
seasonally adjusted factor.

871
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:56,200
So if you looked at the picture
in the gasoline price, like if

872
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,800
you checked on Bloomberg or
wherever, gasoline was up like

873
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:02,880
7% on the on the month.
But in the PPI data, it was down

874
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,920
because of seasonally adjusted
factors.

875
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,000
So I was joking that, you know,
when you go to the pump station,

876
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,240
you should be asking for a
seasonally adjusted gasoline

877
00:52:11,240 --> 00:52:14,280
price.
So that, that's, that's one easy

878
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:16,360
way that they were fudging
inflation data.

879
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:22,680
Now on the on the job data, it's
way made messier because they

880
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:26,120
have these things called the
birth death adjustments, which

881
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:31,400
is a fudge factor based on when
companies are born and companies

882
00:52:31,400 --> 00:52:35,320
are dying and they just want to
smooth out the job number

883
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:39,480
basically based on the fudge on
the data, you know, and these

884
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,840
adjustments, they they create
very big swings.

885
00:52:41,840 --> 00:52:47,560
So like if the last number was
in, I don't know, 140,000, the

886
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:51,920
adjustment factor was like, I'd
like to say 80.

887
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,560
I can't remember the top of my
head, but it was like 80,000 / 2

888
00:52:54,560 --> 00:52:56,480
months.
So it's, it's like it's, it's a

889
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,280
real number.
I think, I think it was like 25%

890
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,600
downward revisions for all the
jobs created or something.

891
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,400
So, you know, you're talking
about like a pretty big swing.

892
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:12,840
And the problem with these big
swings is that we are starting a

893
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:17,200
rate cutting cycle where we're
not sure if they should do 25 or

894
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,040
50.
And you know, my point of what

895
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,400
I'm saying is, you know, ignore
whether the data is fake or

896
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:26,480
real.
What you should be getting your

897
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:29,640
mind to is that the data is
inaccurate.

898
00:53:30,720 --> 00:53:34,320
So when the data is inaccurate,
what you should be focusing on

899
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:36,480
is how will the market trade
them?

900
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:38,760
In the short, like if you're a
short term trader, you should be

901
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,560
thinking how will the market
trade them?

902
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:42,680
That's the one thing, what's
going to be the narrative.

903
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:46,840
But in the longer term, you
should be thinking, you know, if

904
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:51,280
if I strip out all these things,
how do you think, how does it

905
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,480
the economy actually look under
the hood?

906
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:58,400
And you know, my simple answer
is that the economy is slowing

907
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,800
faster than the headline would
suggest.

908
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,320
It's not collapsing because I,
you know, I don't want to be an

909
00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:07,320
alarmist.
It's not collapsing, but the job

910
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:13,120
creation was slower than what
the headline would suggest.

911
00:54:13,720 --> 00:54:20,000
And if you think about what that
means, that means that the Fed

912
00:54:22,240 --> 00:54:27,680
was handicapped by basically
this inaccurate data.

913
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:30,560
Like, you know, maybe they
should be cutting 50 bits at the

914
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:34,040
next meeting if you ask me, or
maybe they should have cut in in

915
00:54:34,040 --> 00:54:38,400
in July already.
And also the, the, there's this

916
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:42,600
interesting aspect about the
data that I put in the last

917
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:50,160
report that the adjustments tend
to be the adjustments were

918
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:56,120
upwards during COVID, during
2021.

919
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:01,480
So the revisions were upwards
and now the revisions are

920
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:03,320
downwards.
Why is this important?

921
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,560
In 2021, if you remember,
inflation was transitory.

922
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,200
Remember that inflation was
transitory, right?

923
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,400
So the job data, let's say, was
coming at 100, but it should

924
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,000
have been 200.
So the revisions afterwards were

925
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:19,240
higher.
So the Fed at that point was

926
00:55:19,240 --> 00:55:23,160
looking at the job creation and
it was lower than what, you

927
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,840
know, lower than what you would
expect.

928
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,960
So like, oh, that's great.
Inflation is transitory.

929
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:30,720
You know, there's a lot of slack
in the labour market.

930
00:55:30,720 --> 00:55:32,360
Yabby da, Yabby da.
And then they come out with

931
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:34,360
revisions like months later.
It's like, oh shit, you know,

932
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:36,680
there was a actually the job
creation was much higher.

933
00:55:37,240 --> 00:55:40,920
Now we're in the opposite stage.
We're the stage where the job

934
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:44,000
number, the job numbers are
good, but actually the revisions

935
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,120
are coming lower.
So what I'm just saying is

936
00:55:46,720 --> 00:55:49,680
that's why I, you know,
especially because it's, you

937
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:52,000
know, we're in money of mine
where we're talking about

938
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:53,600
cyclical.
So it's important to get this

939
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:56,480
right.
Now with the revisions lower, it

940
00:55:56,480 --> 00:56:00,160
means that the economy is
slowing faster than what they're

941
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:03,080
telling us.
Whereas before the before, when

942
00:56:03,080 --> 00:56:07,120
inflation was transitory, the,
the labour market was better

943
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:09,600
than what they were telling us,
Now the labour market is worse

944
00:56:09,600 --> 00:56:13,920
than what they're telling us.
So, so, you know, at some point

945
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,120
they're going to come out and,
you know, act on it.

946
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:22,400
And by the way, that's not
necessarily, but they have to

947
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:24,880
wake up to it.
And when they wake up to it,

948
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:26,200
that's when you need to make a
decision.

949
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:30,600
Are we 2007 or are we 1976?
Who like who's who does who does

950
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:33,680
this serve right?
Because it's like, you know, I,

951
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,440
it's almost the consensus view
now that the numbers are all

952
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:42,560
fake and the, the Feds kind of
captured by the stock market and

953
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:45,680
market participants are allergic
to, you know, volatility

954
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:47,600
downwards.
And then, you know, the Fed

955
00:56:47,600 --> 00:56:50,400
change its tune again.
But like, like, how does that

956
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:52,480
actually happen?
Like who's like, who does it

957
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:53,880
serve?
Whose incentives are kind of

958
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:56,880
like influencing these like
pretty, pretty serious important

959
00:56:56,880 --> 00:56:59,160
decisions?
And you know, like, like, like,

960
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:00,440
I mean, how have you unpacked
that?

961
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:06,360
Yeah, unfortunately I'm a
conspiracy theorist sometimes.

962
00:57:07,480 --> 00:57:11,440
Yeah, so, so I, you know, I, I
can't help it.

963
00:57:11,720 --> 00:57:15,560
It, it is what it is, but I
don't mind that because, you

964
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:18,560
know, as a parody publication,
it's, you know, it's, it's kind

965
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:20,640
of fun.
You know, I, I can't afford to,

966
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:26,240
to write my conspiracies and,
you know, get on with it.

967
00:57:26,240 --> 00:57:29,000
You know, like I, I read a joke
yesterday.

968
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:32,120
Someone sent it to me.
So I identify as a conspiracy

969
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:35,360
theorist.
My pronouns are old.

970
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:45,960
You so so basically, so
basically, who does it serve?

971
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,560
You know, you can make a lot of
arguments because with the jobs

972
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:57,600
data, I was, I was, I was semi
joking that the perfect job jobs

973
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:01,320
report would be 1 where it's
cold enough.

974
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:04,960
You know, it's bad enough that
the Fed can go and cut rates,

975
00:58:05,840 --> 00:58:10,760
but it's good enough that Biden
can stand on a podium and say

976
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:14,080
that the labour market is still
very strong.

977
00:58:15,200 --> 00:58:20,600
So because the jobs data is so
complicated in the sense like

978
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:24,800
there's total payrolls, for
example, but under the details

979
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:29,000
also private payrolls though.
So it's the, it's actually what

980
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:31,200
the corporates, excluding the
government have created.

981
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:33,640
So the total payrolls could be
strong because there's more

982
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:36,360
people employed in the
government, but the, the private

983
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:40,200
payrolls could be weak because,
you know, manufacturing went

984
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:42,080
down or construction activity
went down.

985
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:47,760
So, so you, you can find like a
bear case and a bull case by

986
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:51,040
looking at the same set of data.
So to your point, who does it

987
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,680
serve?
I think it can serve both of

988
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:57,880
them because, because on one
side, you know, Biden comes out

989
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,200
now Kamala says, oh, the dog
market is very strong.

990
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:03,560
We create 140,000 jobs.
And then on the other side, you

991
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,640
have the Fed coming out.
You know, the formation and the

992
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:08,840
private payrolls has been quite
weak.

993
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:12,040
So we have to be vigilant or,
you know, the job openings have

994
00:59:12,040 --> 00:59:16,800
been weak or, or you know, if
you look at this, oh, you know,

995
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:20,600
you look at part time workers
have risen by full time have

996
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:23,120
fallen down.
So it's all these details I can

997
00:59:23,120 --> 00:59:27,360
just fudge around to be honest.
So who does it serve?

998
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:31,120
It serves everyone.
It serves the Fed, it serves, it

999
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:32,960
serves the politicians.
It's an election year.

1000
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:37,040
So an election year, you know,
this has been the stance of of

1001
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:40,720
mine and what I'm writing on
Trust Act that election year.

1002
00:59:40,720 --> 00:59:44,800
You you can see a lot of weird
stuff happening and we have seen

1003
00:59:44,800 --> 00:59:48,680
a lot of weird stuff happening
and a lot of games being played

1004
00:59:50,840 --> 00:59:52,520
still being played.
So, you know, it's just a

1005
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:57,160
question of what happens after
the election is also it's like a

1006
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,880
really good point at this point.
All this talk about fake, fake

1007
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:03,960
numbers, fake fake Fed numbers,
fake inflation numbers, it's all

1008
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:05,040
fucking true.
We know it.

1009
01:00:05,040 --> 01:00:07,880
But you know where there is a
complete intolerance for fake

1010
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:10,120
numbers and it matters so much
when you're doing drilling and

1011
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:14,160
expiration work, JD it's like
you can't, you can't stuff up

1012
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:17,000
the the assaying just has to be
like perfect.

1013
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:19,280
You can't stuff up any of that.
You've got to have just great

1014
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:21,120
assay hygiene.
I don't know if that's a word.

1015
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:22,280
Is that a word?
Assay hygiene.

1016
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:23,760
Anyway, you know who that's
great guy?

1017
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,000
Fucking K drill, mate, K drill,
K drill.

1018
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:27,760
You know why you.
Want to be in safe hands?

1019
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:28,840
Oh.
Safe hands.

1020
01:00:29,120 --> 01:00:31,960
I'm in, fans.
You look at the size of Ryan's

1021
01:00:31,960 --> 01:00:34,280
hands and then you know they're
safe because you could.

1022
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:39,160
You could just fit a giant
watermelon in one of them.

1023
01:00:39,720 --> 01:00:41,360
Now you're dead right.
I was getting a bit, you know,

1024
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:45,520
worried talking about all this,
this questionable sort of stuff

1025
01:00:45,520 --> 01:00:47,760
that that we see in in the
Broadway over in America.

1026
01:00:47,760 --> 01:00:48,880
You know, we don't have to worry
about it.

1027
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:51,160
Yeah.
And it's good just to to

1028
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:53,520
highlight what K drill does just
to feel safe.

1029
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:56,240
You know, you want RC drilling,
you want some diamond drilling.

1030
01:00:56,400 --> 01:00:58,720
They have.
They have both of those, both of

1031
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:02,160
those and a whole lot more.
And they can do it without

1032
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:03,640
faking the data.
The day's real.

1033
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:05,080
It's going to be quality.
They'll be that's it.

1034
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:06,920
There will be mines where they
drill.

1035
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:08,800
I mean, I feel so safe with K
drill.

1036
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:10,920
Oh, we're we're bloody Patagon.
You this with K Drill.

1037
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:12,640
Oh, look at that bad boy.
Nice.

1038
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:13,320
Thanks.
K Drill.

1039
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:15,280
You got a drill programme, Get
in touch.

1040
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:18,120
Call K drill, call Ryan O's
Sullivan.

1041
01:01:18,680 --> 01:01:23,240
Get the job done.
You have to kind of hope that

1042
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:25,480
the the Fed and everyone
involved can remember all the

1043
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:27,760
the fudgings of the numbers and
the tweaks of the numbers.

1044
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,160
Otherwise they're really driving
with their eyes closed.

1045
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:32,160
It's kind of concerning to think
about.

1046
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:36,880
Yeah, I think that's, that's the
main concern I have because you

1047
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:40,400
know, going back to the 2021, I
mean 2021 was a policy mistake.

1048
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:41,880
You know, they let things run
too hot.

1049
01:01:42,320 --> 01:01:46,480
We, we were at 0% rate with
everything booming around us

1050
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:50,280
except like the Fed was saying
that it's not transitory and

1051
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:52,640
there's slack in the labour
market, which there wasn't.

1052
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,560
And now we're in the opposite.
We're like 5% rates.

1053
01:01:55,880 --> 01:01:59,080
Things are slowing down and
we're still debating.

1054
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:07,080
So, so it is concerning because
there is a cost to fake data,

1055
01:02:07,080 --> 01:02:11,600
inaccurate data, or however you
know, however you want to to

1056
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:14,160
describe it, there is a cost to
it and it's going to show.

1057
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:18,000
You, you, you speak, you know,
often with a kind of short,

1058
01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:20,800
shorter term bias in a sense.
And a lot of the opportunities

1059
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:23,480
are kind of shorter data that
you, you write about.

1060
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:27,440
But how do you think, you know,
zooming all the way out about

1061
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,280
fiscal recklessness, about
currency debasement, about all

1062
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,800
these issues and a kind of, you
know, end game, if you want to

1063
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:36,880
put it in kind of dramatic
terms, is, is that something

1064
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:39,200
that you know, occupies much
space in your mind?

1065
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:41,560
Are you much more focused on the
the here and now?

1066
01:02:43,200 --> 01:02:45,560
You know, big time I, I, it
occupies me a lot actually, and

1067
01:02:45,560 --> 01:02:51,080
that's why I, I write a lot
about short term trades, but I

1068
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:58,000
also, I find that the short term
trades get my mindset right and

1069
01:02:58,000 --> 01:02:59,840
get me to look at a lot of
things.

1070
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:05,720
And what I tried to get out of
it is I also have like My

1071
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:07,480
Portfolio actually doesn't
change that much.

1072
01:03:08,040 --> 01:03:10,400
So the short term trade is like
swing trades that just, you

1073
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:15,680
know, pay the bills.
But if I'm going to say like My

1074
01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:19,120
Portfolio doesn't really change
that much and I want to have

1075
01:03:19,120 --> 01:03:22,320
that exposure that protects me
from the debasement side.

1076
01:03:22,320 --> 01:03:25,000
That's why I, you know what,
what we said earlier that

1077
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:27,720
basically commodities are an
integral part of the portfolio.

1078
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:31,120
Like you know, I have a seven 7%
position in platinum for

1079
01:03:31,120 --> 01:03:33,120
example.
I'm not going to change that.

1080
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,840
I have my tin exposure, I'm not
going to change that.

1081
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:40,720
And the reason is, you know what
you said, I do actually think

1082
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,160
that the world works around
currency debasement.

1083
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:47,840
And the best way to do currency
debasement, by the way, is to do

1084
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:50,560
it in a covert way.
Like you don't want to, you

1085
01:03:50,560 --> 01:03:52,840
don't want to be Venezuela or
Argentina.

1086
01:03:53,080 --> 01:03:54,560
You want, you want to do it
gently.

1087
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:59,280
You don't want people, you know,
you like, I affectionately call

1088
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:01,720
all of us the plebs.
You know, you don't want, you

1089
01:04:01,720 --> 01:04:03,720
don't want the pledge to figure
out that there's currency

1090
01:04:03,720 --> 01:04:05,920
debasement and that that was,
you know, one danger with

1091
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:09,520
Bitcoin that it made people
aware there is currency

1092
01:04:09,520 --> 01:04:15,640
debasement coming on.
So, you know, that's why I think

1093
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:19,000
people should have real assets
in their portfolio and in their

1094
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:20,600
life.
Like a house is a real asset.

1095
01:04:20,600 --> 01:04:23,440
Like I'll, you know, someone
should have a house ideally, you

1096
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:25,240
know, a lot of people think that
you shouldn't even own a house.

1097
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:27,960
I think they should own a house.
So I think OK, in Australia it's

1098
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:30,880
a bit different because you guys
got really, really screwed with

1099
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:35,360
the property market, I guess,
which is a result of various

1100
01:04:35,360 --> 01:04:40,440
policies and I guess cultural.
But you know, a real asset like

1101
01:04:40,480 --> 01:04:43,400
a like a house or real assets
like commodities.

1102
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:47,040
I think they do play a part
because the end game, what's the

1103
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:52,400
end game?
The end game is that, well,

1104
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:54,800
there, there's one end game
that's a very, very bad one.

1105
01:04:54,800 --> 01:04:58,920
And let's not get there because
that one is like Soviet style

1106
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:02,160
end game war or World War 2 end
game.

1107
01:05:02,160 --> 01:05:04,240
But you know, let's not talk
about that.

1108
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:07,320
So we we are finishing on a
happier note.

1109
01:05:07,960 --> 01:05:11,920
You know, the end game is
basically these guys are just

1110
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:14,480
going to keep printing, they're
going to keep spending.

1111
01:05:15,640 --> 01:05:19,480
So, so, so what's going to
happen?

1112
01:05:19,720 --> 01:05:21,920
Well, at some point they're
going to have to monetize the

1113
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:25,320
debt, but slowly.
So the end game is probably

1114
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:31,520
going to be yield control
because imagine having like you

1115
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:34,480
have Trump versus come out.
What's the one common thing that

1116
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:35,880
they both have?
They both want to spend.

1117
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:37,920
They're both promising things.
They both have to do that.

1118
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:42,160
So imagine at some point the
bondage land has come up because

1119
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:44,440
we haven't had bondage Landers.
We had them actually in October

1120
01:05:44,440 --> 01:05:47,680
23, 2023.
We had them for like a few weeks

1121
01:05:48,040 --> 01:05:54,040
when the yields blew up at 5%
and then Yellen came in and just

1122
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:58,040
capped the yields in a very nice
covert way by, you know, just

1123
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:02,280
changing the issuance schedule
and the maturity schedule of the

1124
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:06,120
new issuance.
So they don't want to have

1125
01:06:06,120 --> 01:06:10,160
yields blowing up.
So the end game is basically

1126
01:06:10,240 --> 01:06:12,800
some form of yield control like
Japan.

1127
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:18,960
And when that happens, that is
like a covert way of currency

1128
01:06:18,960 --> 01:06:20,960
debasement.
Like someone has to pay for it,

1129
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:22,760
right?
So it's either going to be the

1130
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:25,680
currency or it's going to be in
the bonds.

1131
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:28,720
And I'm guessing it's going to
be like, you know, the currency

1132
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:29,840
is going to pay for it
eventually.

1133
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:33,600
And we're going to keep doing
this covert currency debasement

1134
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:36,840
thing that we're doing, which we
have been doing since like 1970s

1135
01:06:36,840 --> 01:06:38,880
to be honest.
We'll just keep doing it.

1136
01:06:40,960 --> 01:06:42,920
It's simple when you spell it
out in a lot of ways.

1137
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:46,360
Yeah, I mean, look, because,
because the other way to think

1138
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:52,080
about it is this my, my ex boss,
you know who who I, I, you know,

1139
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:54,000
I'll say again, I mean, he was a
genius.

1140
01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:57,440
He said something very simple.
Every crisis is different.

1141
01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,760
So people think about 2007 and
we're going to have another

1142
01:07:01,760 --> 01:07:04,080
2007.
But what happened after 2007?

1143
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,080
It's like the policy makers know
how to deal with 2007.

1144
01:07:07,360 --> 01:07:11,600
And that's why we're here.
We're here because they realised

1145
01:07:11,600 --> 01:07:14,080
that they could just print a lot
of money to get it out of 2007.

1146
01:07:14,080 --> 01:07:16,720
So that's what they're thinking.
That's their own Regency bias.

1147
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:19,120
Their own Regency bias is that
they're going to keep printing

1148
01:07:19,120 --> 01:07:21,640
to get us out of a crisis.
What do they do in COVID?

1149
01:07:21,640 --> 01:07:23,560
They printed to get it out of a
crisis.

1150
01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:25,440
What are they going to do in the
next crisis?

1151
01:07:25,800 --> 01:07:28,280
They're going to print to get us
out of a crisis.

1152
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:32,480
But now they don't even let it
go to like, Can you imagine the

1153
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:36,480
S&P down 50%?
Like here we have a guys here we

1154
01:07:36,480 --> 01:07:41,720
have like a not even a 10%
correction, 9% correction that

1155
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:46,360
lasted 2 days in August.
And we had Jeremy Siegel coming

1156
01:07:46,360 --> 01:07:49,640
on CNBC crying and begging for
an emergency rate cut.

1157
01:07:49,880 --> 01:07:54,280
Like, and also putting Jeremy
Siegel aside because you know,

1158
01:07:54,400 --> 01:07:59,160
who cares about Jeremy Siegel?
No, no offence to him, but not

1159
01:07:59,520 --> 01:08:03,880
not only was he crying about an
emergency rate cut and the

1160
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:06,400
market was also pricing in an
emergency rate cut.

1161
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:09,480
So this is the important part.
The important part was we had a

1162
01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:13,840
nine percent correction and the
market jumped from pricing at 25

1163
01:08:14,200 --> 01:08:19,120
BIP rate cut in September to
pricing in A50 BIPS rate cut

1164
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:24,600
plus an emergency rate cut to
stem a 9% decline in the S&P,

1165
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:29,040
which by the way, the S&P was
already up like still up more

1166
01:08:29,040 --> 01:08:32,760
than 10% for the year in a very
Goodyear at a very high

1167
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:37,160
valuation, right?
But that was enough to get

1168
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:41,800
everyone panicking that we need
to act like now this is an

1169
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:45,359
emergency.
NVIDIA is at 100, guys.

1170
01:08:45,359 --> 01:08:48,160
We cannot have NVIDIA go below
100.

1171
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:51,279
It's a matter of national
security.

1172
01:08:53,479 --> 01:08:56,920
There's one more kind of broader
question I want to ask shrub,

1173
01:08:56,920 --> 01:08:59,800
and it's just because you say
sort of NVIDIA there and it

1174
01:08:59,800 --> 01:09:03,399
comes to mind and that's
regarding passive investing and

1175
01:09:03,399 --> 01:09:06,240
the influence you think that
that passive has that that's

1176
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:08,880
been a big change.
You know, it was around in that

1177
01:09:08,880 --> 01:09:11,120
that area.
You speak of O seven O 8, but

1178
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:14,200
it's it's bigger than ever.
What kind of influence do you do

1179
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:18,640
you think passing passive
investing, you know, has on the

1180
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:22,080
market and how that makes the
next crisis, you know, its own

1181
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:25,080
unique kind of crisis if and
when that day kind of comes?

1182
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:32,920
Yeah, big time.
So I, I, I wrote a piece called

1183
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:37,160
the the NVIDIA Liquidity Vortex,
which I was actually going

1184
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,640
through this that basically was
going through the passive flows.

1185
01:09:40,880 --> 01:09:43,760
But there's a lot of detail, but
I'll just tell you about the

1186
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:47,000
passive flow side of these
things because basically we have

1187
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:51,520
created a casino in this one
stock called NVIDIA and it's

1188
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:56,360
also a function of passive.
But to give you how an example

1189
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:59,680
of how concentrated this this
thing is right now.

1190
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:04,880
So the top seven stocks in the
S&P are account for 32% of the

1191
01:10:04,880 --> 01:10:07,240
index.
But in the NASDAQ, the top seven

1192
01:10:07,240 --> 01:10:12,280
stocks are 45% of the NASDAQ.
So the way you should think

1193
01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:19,440
about it is for every 100 bucks
of passive, 32 bucks goes to the

1194
01:10:19,440 --> 01:10:23,320
seven stocks.
And in the Nasdaq's case, for

1195
01:10:23,320 --> 01:10:27,200
every hundred that goes to
NASDAQ 45 goes to the same 7

1196
01:10:27,200 --> 01:10:29,920
stocks.
Now, if you look at Nvidia's

1197
01:10:29,920 --> 01:10:36,240
case, for every hundred that
goes in the SMP, about 7 bucks

1198
01:10:36,240 --> 01:10:38,800
ends up in NVIDIA.
It's crazy.

1199
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:41,240
So it's insane if you think
about it.

1200
01:10:41,240 --> 01:10:43,760
That's why, you know, I wrote
this whole piece go detailing

1201
01:10:43,760 --> 01:10:48,880
the flows, you know, expanding
lever DTS as well and as well as

1202
01:10:48,880 --> 01:10:52,720
passive.
But basically, you know, imagine

1203
01:10:52,720 --> 01:11:00,080
being like a 80 year old man or
and investing in passive and

1204
01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:02,200
you're like, oh, I'm going to
have none of this nonsense and

1205
01:11:02,200 --> 01:11:06,920
all these bubbly stocks and I'm
going to have my money in the

1206
01:11:06,920 --> 01:11:09,600
S&P, which is safe.
And you're like, well, actually

1207
01:11:09,600 --> 01:11:13,400
you just any money you put now
7% goes to NVIDIA.

1208
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:18,480
So that's the problem with how
they've constructed the index

1209
01:11:18,480 --> 01:11:27,440
now is it's so stewed to these
names that, you know, God forbid

1210
01:11:27,440 --> 01:11:31,680
what we said earlier, like we
have a proper correction, you

1211
01:11:31,680 --> 01:11:34,800
know, everyone is going to have
going to have a rough time.

1212
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:41,160
Like you can't have 7% of an
index in a, you know, great

1213
01:11:41,160 --> 01:11:43,160
company and all that, but it's
a, you know, it's a three

1214
01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:44,920
trillion company that is
cyclical.

1215
01:11:46,080 --> 01:11:53,920
So you're, you've introduced a
lot of risk into the into

1216
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:56,720
pension funds by having this
high level of concentration

1217
01:11:57,520 --> 01:12:01,680
because you know, the S&P is
supposed to be a, a very, I'm

1218
01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:09,960
not going to say save diverse.
It should be a diverse index.

1219
01:12:10,400 --> 01:12:16,320
And in the case, in the case of
say Microsoft, that actually

1220
01:12:16,320 --> 01:12:18,960
works out because if you look at
the, the earnings of Microsoft,

1221
01:12:18,960 --> 01:12:22,320
they've been very, very stable.
Microsoft just, you know, it's

1222
01:12:22,360 --> 01:12:24,960
a, it's a secular stock, let's
put it this way.

1223
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:29,880
But when you introduce something
like NVIDIA, which again, great

1224
01:12:29,880 --> 01:12:33,080
company, but there's their
earnings have been very cyclical

1225
01:12:33,120 --> 01:12:37,560
in the past.
So you basically just skewed

1226
01:12:37,720 --> 01:12:41,120
passive towards the cyclical
industry that's at some point

1227
01:12:41,120 --> 01:12:43,360
it's going to go down.
I mean, it's already down like

1228
01:12:43,360 --> 01:12:45,680
from 1:40 it went down to like
100.

1229
01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:47,880
So that's a pretty big, pretty
big loss already.

1230
01:12:49,680 --> 01:12:55,440
So yeah, passive has screwed up
the game and it's very difficult

1231
01:12:56,240 --> 01:12:59,640
to see how they're going to
unscrew it, to be honest, at

1232
01:12:59,640 --> 01:13:04,280
this point.
And my view is that for the rest

1233
01:13:04,280 --> 01:13:09,400
of the market to do well, you
probably need to NVIDIA get

1234
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:14,320
killed because you want to see
that casino shift to be more a

1235
01:13:14,520 --> 01:13:17,560
more diverse casino instead of
just a single stock casino.

1236
01:13:18,480 --> 01:13:20,760
It's a it's phenomenal, right?
The the biggest stocks get

1237
01:13:20,960 --> 01:13:24,360
bigger and yeah, at the margin,
you know, a huge amount of the

1238
01:13:24,480 --> 01:13:27,600
the money gets kind of allocated
to these to put your basically

1239
01:13:27,600 --> 01:13:30,200
pushing the price up of these
existing large stocks on crazy

1240
01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:33,200
high multiples.
But the this exact same mechanic

1241
01:13:33,280 --> 01:13:36,240
works in reverse.
And maybe that's why the the

1242
01:13:36,760 --> 01:13:41,280
global financial world is so
averse to, to to a little bit of

1243
01:13:41,560 --> 01:13:44,120
downside volatility because of
the fear that that that I'm

1244
01:13:44,320 --> 01:13:48,040
unwinding can kind of create,
which which, you know, leads to

1245
01:13:48,040 --> 01:13:51,800
the to the metals exposures.
I'd love to touch on shrub.

1246
01:13:52,400 --> 01:13:58,360
Why Platinum?
So platinum for me is actually a

1247
01:13:58,360 --> 01:14:03,520
very easy trade, which sounds
scary when I phrase it that way

1248
01:14:03,520 --> 01:14:06,720
already.
So contraindicator.

1249
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:12,080
Yeah, yeah, it's a bad start.
But platform.

1250
01:14:14,480 --> 01:14:17,480
So I actually do think, you
know, I do believe in currency

1251
01:14:17,480 --> 01:14:20,000
debasement.
I I think the deficits have gone

1252
01:14:20,000 --> 01:14:23,040
out of control.
And you know, when I look at,

1253
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:27,560
you know, you look at gold is at
the highs, you know, for a good

1254
01:14:27,560 --> 01:14:31,520
reason.
And then I look at platinum and

1255
01:14:31,520 --> 01:14:35,280
platinum is actually more rare
as a metal than gold and it's a

1256
01:14:35,280 --> 01:14:38,640
precious metal.
And you know, when I start an

1257
01:14:38,640 --> 01:14:42,560
industry again, Regency bias,
platinum was trading at 100%

1258
01:14:42,560 --> 01:14:46,800
premium to gold.
And right now platinum is

1259
01:14:46,800 --> 01:14:48,760
trading at a 60% discount to
gold.

1260
01:14:50,440 --> 01:14:52,520
And I just find that fascinating
because it's the lowest

1261
01:14:52,520 --> 01:14:55,440
discount, it's the highest
discount it's ever traded versus

1262
01:14:55,440 --> 01:15:01,600
gold.
And at that price, the producers

1263
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:07,800
are all losing money.
So I'm very, very excited by

1264
01:15:07,800 --> 01:15:13,080
being long, you know, 1A
precious metal that will give me

1265
01:15:13,200 --> 01:15:23,440
protection in the, in the event
of debasement 2, some generally

1266
01:15:23,440 --> 01:15:25,800
a commodity where all the
producers are losing money at

1267
01:15:25,800 --> 01:15:27,680
the current price.
I mean, that excites me by

1268
01:15:27,680 --> 01:15:32,040
itself.
Three, most of the producers are

1269
01:15:32,040 --> 01:15:35,400
actually pretty crappy companies
based in South Africa.

1270
01:15:35,960 --> 01:15:38,920
So there is no growth.
If you see their pipeline, they

1271
01:15:38,920 --> 01:15:41,120
haven't grown production for
like a decade.

1272
01:15:41,520 --> 01:15:44,040
And if you look at new projects,
the one I think you had one in

1273
01:15:44,040 --> 01:15:47,320
Australia that was doing
Palladium Chalice.

1274
01:15:47,680 --> 01:15:50,040
I mean, you know, something like
chalice is never going to get

1275
01:15:50,040 --> 01:15:53,200
built, right?
So from last time I checked it,

1276
01:15:53,200 --> 01:15:54,560
I haven't checked it for like a
couple years.

1277
01:15:55,080 --> 01:15:56,120
Yeah, but is it?
I don't know.

1278
01:15:56,120 --> 01:15:56,640
I don't know.
Actually.

1279
01:15:56,640 --> 01:15:59,040
I wouldn't mind asking you guys
what's going on with that

1280
01:15:59,040 --> 01:16:01,360
because I haven't followed it
for like a year or something.

1281
01:16:01,360 --> 01:16:03,760
You can't put it in your supply
demand, yeah.

1282
01:16:04,120 --> 01:16:04,680
Yeah.
OK.

1283
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:06,120
So there you go.
I mean, if it happens, it's

1284
01:16:06,120 --> 01:16:07,400
going to happen in 10 years,
right?

1285
01:16:07,440 --> 01:16:10,640
Yeah.
I mean, so, so basically the

1286
01:16:10,640 --> 01:16:13,640
supplies in there and on the
demand side is quite

1287
01:16:13,640 --> 01:16:15,520
interesting.
The demand side is actually

1288
01:16:16,320 --> 01:16:26,400
pretty, pretty OK, because the
reason why they took platinum

1289
01:16:26,400 --> 01:16:29,600
for dead is because everyone,
you know, the narrative was that

1290
01:16:29,600 --> 01:16:32,960
everyone's going to drive an
electric vehicle in the future

1291
01:16:33,360 --> 01:16:37,920
and ICE vehicles are going to
get killed or, you know, become

1292
01:16:37,920 --> 01:16:42,120
obsolete.
And platinum is, is not only a

1293
01:16:42,120 --> 01:16:46,000
precious metal, it also doubles
up as a industrial metal whose

1294
01:16:46,000 --> 01:16:49,160
main uses in the catalytic
converters for ICE vehicle.

1295
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:55,840
So the industrial side has been
seen as a, you know, it's going

1296
01:16:55,840 --> 01:16:59,040
to be weak because ICE is going
to go down, but actually it's

1297
01:16:59,040 --> 01:17:04,960
been OK.
And hybrid vehicles actually use

1298
01:17:04,960 --> 01:17:11,400
a bigger platinum loading than
ICE vehicles and hybrids have

1299
01:17:11,400 --> 01:17:15,920
actually seen growth versus EV
seeing a decline.

1300
01:17:16,960 --> 01:17:22,560
So, so not only do you have the
upside from the precious side

1301
01:17:22,560 --> 01:17:25,240
that the basement side, but you
also could have an upside from

1302
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:30,680
the industrial side with the,
you know, hybrids picking up

1303
01:17:30,840 --> 01:17:33,600
EVs, you know, not taking over
the world.

1304
01:17:33,600 --> 01:17:37,640
But, you know, put all these
things together and it gives you

1305
01:17:37,640 --> 01:17:43,080
like a pretty nice trade.
Like I own platinum and I'm just

1306
01:17:43,080 --> 01:17:47,320
sitting on it like I have 7%,
you know, at the highs.

1307
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:51,000
I had like, you know, much more
exposure when I had Anglo in the

1308
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:55,240
portfolio as a play.
But you know, I'm happy to just

1309
01:17:55,240 --> 01:17:59,640
sit on that position and, you
know, go bigger as things as

1310
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:03,760
things turn.
And that's that's a kind of like

1311
01:18:04,720 --> 01:18:06,880
a symmetry.
I like where you have a low

1312
01:18:06,880 --> 01:18:11,800
downside and you know
potentially this thing can RIP

1313
01:18:11,800 --> 01:18:14,800
on for various reasons.
Like I gave you like a few

1314
01:18:14,800 --> 01:18:16,880
reasons why it can work.
It can't be just one.

1315
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:20,000
It could be like a few different
factors.

1316
01:18:21,520 --> 01:18:25,360
Is is the the exposure to the
physical a pretty intentional

1317
01:18:25,840 --> 01:18:29,480
decision because the the miners
are are unpalatable?

1318
01:18:30,840 --> 01:18:32,840
Yeah.
So when I was when I first set

1319
01:18:32,840 --> 01:18:37,920
up the trade I had, I thought
the best producer was actually

1320
01:18:39,560 --> 01:18:43,400
Anglo Platt.
But then I was thinking, well, I

1321
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:45,720
might as well just buy Anglo
American because they have

1322
01:18:45,720 --> 01:18:47,280
everything.
They also have a great copper

1323
01:18:47,280 --> 01:18:50,040
asset and you know, for the
sound parts discount and put it

1324
01:18:50,040 --> 01:18:52,480
all together like Anglo was the
easy vehicle.

1325
01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:54,440
Let's put it this way.
If you wanted like platinum

1326
01:18:54,440 --> 01:18:58,320
exposure, Anglo American, easy
way out be done with it.

1327
01:18:58,880 --> 01:19:04,640
And then, and then I bought the
the physical as well because

1328
01:19:04,640 --> 01:19:09,680
it's liquid and it's easy.
I also had coals on it because

1329
01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:12,360
you know, you can buy coals.
Coals were quite cheap at the

1330
01:19:12,360 --> 01:19:13,840
time.
Now I haven't checked where they

1331
01:19:13,840 --> 01:19:17,240
are.
And then at some point I bought

1332
01:19:17,240 --> 01:19:20,720
a little piece of the of the
producers as well of the other

1333
01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:24,640
players.
And I still have one of them,

1334
01:19:24,880 --> 01:19:27,800
but you know, they're pretty
crappy companies, unfortunately,

1335
01:19:27,800 --> 01:19:31,480
which is actually the bulk case
for, and I still hold one of

1336
01:19:31,480 --> 01:19:35,160
them, by the way.
But you know, that's actually

1337
01:19:35,160 --> 01:19:38,520
the bulk case for the metal is
that the miners are so bad.

1338
01:19:39,160 --> 01:19:43,880
And that's why, you know, if
let's put it this way, instead

1339
01:19:43,880 --> 01:19:49,880
of having like sitting on cash
or, you know, too heavy on cash,

1340
01:19:49,880 --> 01:19:55,240
I'd rather own some platinum and
just have it there as a way to

1341
01:19:55,240 --> 01:20:00,120
protect against the currency
debasement because some, you

1342
01:20:00,120 --> 01:20:03,600
know, sometimes.
It happened to me many times

1343
01:20:03,600 --> 01:20:07,480
when you know, you're bullish in
the commodity and instead of

1344
01:20:07,480 --> 01:20:10,120
buying the commodity, you buy
like some junior miner that's

1345
01:20:10,200 --> 01:20:12,840
related to the Comm commodity
and the junior miner just loses

1346
01:20:12,840 --> 01:20:15,280
his permit or has a delay and it
collapses.

1347
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:18,200
The commodity goes to the moon
and you ended up losing money.

1348
01:20:18,600 --> 01:20:20,560
So you know, sometimes when
you're bullish that commodity,

1349
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:24,000
just just buy the commodity and
you know, and you can, you can

1350
01:20:24,000 --> 01:20:26,800
sprinkle a little bit around it
with some producers.

1351
01:20:26,880 --> 01:20:29,640
That's kind of how I do it.
Like I buy the commodity and I

1352
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:32,840
just sprinkle around it some
producers in case it works

1353
01:20:32,840 --> 01:20:36,240
because if platinum goes to 2000
these miners will go like 5X or

1354
01:20:36,240 --> 01:20:40,320
something stupid so.
It was gnarly to watch what

1355
01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:43,080
happened to some of them around,
you know, the Russia Ukraine

1356
01:20:43,520 --> 01:20:46,760
invasion when, you know, a lot
of this supply was kind of just

1357
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:49,880
in doubt.
They literally did just that.

1358
01:20:51,280 --> 01:20:53,960
Yeah, the talk in the miners is
real.

1359
01:20:53,960 --> 01:20:57,040
But like you say that, you know,
some of them have pretty busted

1360
01:20:57,040 --> 01:21:00,920
up balance sheets or just a, you
know, terrible history of

1361
01:21:01,600 --> 01:21:04,640
allocating capital.
Sibanye is fascinating, right?

1362
01:21:04,720 --> 01:21:07,760
I think you had some, Oh yeah,
some call options on them, which

1363
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:11,000
came in racial term trade, which
is.

1364
01:21:11,200 --> 01:21:13,600
Yeah, yeah.
Disaster.

1365
01:21:13,880 --> 01:21:15,480
Yeah, I wrote them.
I mean, I have, I have like a

1366
01:21:15,480 --> 01:21:18,440
cemetery of options.
I have an option cemetery and

1367
01:21:18,440 --> 01:21:21,040
they, you know, they just, they
went to option Cemetery along

1368
01:21:21,040 --> 01:21:27,680
with the rest because you know.
To to to relate that to, to tin

1369
01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:28,960
quickly.
It's kind of interesting.

1370
01:21:28,960 --> 01:21:32,000
Obviously you've mentioned
Meadows X there.

1371
01:21:33,680 --> 01:21:35,040
I can't think of the top of my
head.

1372
01:21:35,040 --> 01:21:38,240
You might know a bit better
shrub, a way to sort of play

1373
01:21:38,240 --> 01:21:41,200
the, the physical other than
look deeply at an, an ATF or

1374
01:21:41,200 --> 01:21:43,480
anything that would kind of
cover that.

1375
01:21:43,480 --> 01:21:47,040
But is Meadows X the the only
way you play tin or is that more

1376
01:21:47,040 --> 01:21:50,680
spread on that front?
Yeah, I, I basically, I used to

1377
01:21:50,680 --> 01:21:53,960
have, so I used to have Alpha
Min.

1378
01:21:53,960 --> 01:21:56,560
I never found a way to do the
physical in a nice way.

1379
01:21:56,560 --> 01:22:00,080
So there is a small ETF in
London, but it's really not

1380
01:22:00,080 --> 01:22:03,480
liquid.
So I used to own Alpha Min and

1381
01:22:03,480 --> 01:22:09,080
Mettlesex and actually had like
I do this thing where I do like

1382
01:22:10,240 --> 01:22:12,760
back of the envelope analysis,
which I call the corner of the

1383
01:22:12,760 --> 01:22:15,440
FT.
And basically the corner of the

1384
01:22:15,440 --> 01:22:21,480
FT is it's a stock pitch that
has to be so, so clear and

1385
01:22:21,480 --> 01:22:25,240
obvious and simple that you can
fit it by writing it in the

1386
01:22:25,240 --> 01:22:29,760
corner of the Financial Times.
So, so I did that for Alpha Man.

1387
01:22:29,760 --> 01:22:32,280
It was at $0.50.
Then it went to a buck and I

1388
01:22:32,280 --> 01:22:37,400
sold it because in the DRC and
they were like rebels 200 miles

1389
01:22:37,400 --> 01:22:38,600
away.
I just didn't want to think

1390
01:22:38,600 --> 01:22:39,920
about it like.
You bought the FUD.

1391
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:42,080
Thank you very much.
Yeah, exactly.

1392
01:22:42,080 --> 01:22:44,520
I mean, like, you know what,
great company, amazing asset,

1393
01:22:45,000 --> 01:22:46,400
but I just didn't want to think
about it.

1394
01:22:46,400 --> 01:22:49,080
So I sold out on that one.
And I did the same analysis with

1395
01:22:49,320 --> 01:22:54,440
Metals X like a back of the
envelope and I've held it since.

1396
01:22:54,440 --> 01:22:58,080
I mean, it's and I just find
that it's the because there's

1397
01:22:58,080 --> 01:23:01,320
only two listed stocks in the in
the western world, Alpha Min and

1398
01:23:01,320 --> 01:23:04,120
Metals X and no easy way to own
physical.

1399
01:23:04,600 --> 01:23:07,360
Yeah, I just find that metals X
is the easiest way for me to to

1400
01:23:07,400 --> 01:23:13,720
play tin.
I mean, what I like about it is

1401
01:23:13,720 --> 01:23:16,920
that, you know, when I bought it
was almost half the market cap

1402
01:23:16,920 --> 01:23:21,120
wasn't cash.
So I felt so it was a break even

1403
01:23:21,120 --> 01:23:22,360
player.
It's a high cost producer.

1404
01:23:22,360 --> 01:23:25,040
So they were breaking even, but
half the market cap was in cash.

1405
01:23:25,680 --> 01:23:30,280
And you know, right now it has a
it had a nice run already.

1406
01:23:30,800 --> 01:23:33,600
So but a third of its market cap
is still in cash.

1407
01:23:34,440 --> 01:23:37,920
And they started and there was a
big holder that was selling down

1408
01:23:39,120 --> 01:23:41,360
and that was capping the stock
for a while.

1409
01:23:44,200 --> 01:23:47,720
And now it seems like they've,
you know, reduced their stake.

1410
01:23:47,720 --> 01:23:50,920
They, you know, they start at
10% now they're, I think they're

1411
01:23:50,920 --> 01:23:52,400
almost out.
They probably have a little bit

1412
01:23:52,720 --> 01:23:53,840
left.
I haven't even checked.

1413
01:23:55,440 --> 01:23:57,720
But what I liked about it is
that they started a buy back.

1414
01:23:57,920 --> 01:24:00,920
So in the past they were just
sitting on the cash doing

1415
01:24:00,920 --> 01:24:02,320
nothing.
The management wasn't speaking

1416
01:24:02,320 --> 01:24:03,600
to anyone.
And now they're just starting a

1417
01:24:03,600 --> 01:24:06,120
buy back.
And every day they, they do like

1418
01:24:06,120 --> 01:24:08,040
a little buy back And that
that's, that's the kind of stuff

1419
01:24:08,040 --> 01:24:14,960
I like, you know, it's like 3 *
e BDA, maybe 4, I don't know,

1420
01:24:14,960 --> 01:24:17,760
maybe 3 or 4, who cares?
But the point is that if tin

1421
01:24:17,760 --> 01:24:20,800
goes up to where I think it
could be that three becomes 1.

1422
01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:25,200
So that's, that's the kind of
trade that gets more excited.

1423
01:24:27,240 --> 01:24:32,080
I mean, metals X by itself has a
very chequered history with

1424
01:24:32,080 --> 01:24:34,760
Australian investors.
So like when I speak about it

1425
01:24:34,760 --> 01:24:39,080
with Australians, especially old
timers, they all hate it and

1426
01:24:39,080 --> 01:24:42,360
it's like, Oh my God, it's that
shitty mine in Reddit, you know,

1427
01:24:42,360 --> 01:24:43,560
the ransom mine, blah, blah,
blah.

1428
01:24:43,760 --> 01:24:47,320
And whatever it is that's made
like everyone hates this

1429
01:24:47,320 --> 01:24:49,280
company.
Everyone got burdened at some

1430
01:24:49,280 --> 01:24:51,400
point.
But you know what, I don't, I

1431
01:24:51,400 --> 01:24:52,640
don't mind.
I don't mind.

1432
01:24:52,640 --> 01:24:55,000
I think that's that's the easy
way for me to to do this.

1433
01:24:55,520 --> 01:24:58,280
And you know, tin, you know,
just a quick word on tin.

1434
01:24:58,280 --> 01:25:00,520
I mean, I know you guys are
talking about tin before

1435
01:25:01,600 --> 01:25:05,120
expensively, but you know, it's
the glue that keeps the

1436
01:25:05,120 --> 01:25:08,840
semiconductors together.
And again, it's a small market.

1437
01:25:09,680 --> 01:25:12,280
The demand is growing and the
supply is just not there.

1438
01:25:12,560 --> 01:25:14,760
Like there is no supply
anywhere.

1439
01:25:16,640 --> 01:25:21,760
I looked at every single new
possible project, the UK one and

1440
01:25:21,760 --> 01:25:25,080
you know Cornish and there's one
in Germany and there's another

1441
01:25:25,080 --> 01:25:30,960
couple of like fields in
Australia that are never going

1442
01:25:30,960 --> 01:25:35,640
to get built.
So basically no supply demand

1443
01:25:35,640 --> 01:25:41,320
going up, important metal for
energy transition as well as AI

1444
01:25:41,320 --> 01:25:44,240
as well as robotics and fact
that I've used AI with a

1445
01:25:44,240 --> 01:25:46,200
commodity means that it's going
to go down but.

1446
01:25:47,440 --> 01:25:50,600
But.
But you know what I'm getting AT

1447
01:25:50,680 --> 01:25:53,800
And also I just like the fact
that there's only one or two

1448
01:25:53,800 --> 01:25:57,480
ways to play it.
So imagine like we get back to a

1449
01:25:57,480 --> 01:26:00,760
tin bull market.
You know, this thing can easily,

1450
01:26:01,880 --> 01:26:05,680
it can go up a lot if it, if
things play out the way it

1451
01:26:05,680 --> 01:26:07,040
should.
But that's why it's why this is

1452
01:26:07,040 --> 01:26:10,160
one of those stocks that I just,
I own it.

1453
01:26:10,560 --> 01:26:13,760
I don't even look at it.
I get happy when it goes up.

1454
01:26:13,800 --> 01:26:16,600
I don't care when it goes down.
And I've just had it for like 3

1455
01:26:16,600 --> 01:26:20,200
years and we're going to keep it
for another as long as it's

1456
01:26:20,320 --> 01:26:23,240
remains listed.
I just I just don't metals X so

1457
01:26:23,240 --> 01:26:25,080
I can enjoy to investors memes
better.

1458
01:26:26,520 --> 01:26:28,240
Yeah, just feel a part of the
community.

1459
01:26:28,240 --> 01:26:29,320
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.

1460
01:26:29,720 --> 01:26:32,880
Yeah, it's, it's like exactly.
This is when you create a nice

1461
01:26:32,880 --> 01:26:35,360
community where it's like, guys,
we don't care if we lose money.

1462
01:26:35,360 --> 01:26:38,160
It's about the memes and it's
about the community.

1463
01:26:38,160 --> 01:26:41,160
I mean, while we're on the sort
of topic of a, a Twitter

1464
01:26:41,160 --> 01:26:43,200
community centred around a
commodity, I've got to ask you

1465
01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:46,000
about coal.
You've you've written about it a

1466
01:26:46,000 --> 01:26:48,680
while back now.
Peabody was the the name that

1467
01:26:48,680 --> 01:26:51,560
comes to mind.
Is it one you're holding?

1468
01:26:51,560 --> 01:26:54,320
I mean, it's, it's hated.
There's, you know, a handful of

1469
01:26:54,320 --> 01:27:00,240
players out there.
I actually sold it at 2380.

1470
01:27:00,360 --> 01:27:02,640
What is it 20.5 now?
Wow.

1471
01:27:03,640 --> 01:27:08,280
I sold it at 2380 like a couple
weeks ago.

1472
01:27:08,280 --> 01:27:11,960
So I was bullish coal.
I was long arch, I was long

1473
01:27:11,960 --> 01:27:16,800
warrior.
I got out of all of them like a

1474
01:27:16,800 --> 01:27:20,560
year ago.
The only one I kept was BTU

1475
01:27:20,560 --> 01:27:24,520
because they had an angle with
Elliot was going out and I

1476
01:27:24,520 --> 01:27:28,440
thought it was like it was a
couple of turns of BBDA cheaper

1477
01:27:28,440 --> 01:27:33,520
than the rest and it had a lot
of cash on the balance sheet

1478
01:27:33,520 --> 01:27:35,760
that could and they hadn't
started buy back.

1479
01:27:35,760 --> 01:27:37,320
So that that was a theme around
it.

1480
01:27:37,360 --> 01:27:40,160
But to be honest, I mean, they
were right to be getting out on

1481
01:27:40,160 --> 01:27:43,160
this one slowly because they
made a lot of money.

1482
01:27:43,160 --> 01:27:46,080
So it was for them.
It was becoming a small position

1483
01:27:46,080 --> 01:27:48,640
and more like a hassle because
it probably brought down their

1484
01:27:48,680 --> 01:27:52,840
ESG ratings by having like like
a 1% position in their fund in a

1485
01:27:52,840 --> 01:27:56,560
cold stock, which is never a
good look if you have ESG

1486
01:27:57,320 --> 01:28:01,720
focused investors in a stupid as
it sounds but it makes a

1487
01:28:01,720 --> 01:28:08,400
difference nowadays.
So BTUI actually sold it a few

1488
01:28:08,400 --> 01:28:12,120
weeks, like a couple weeks ago
because there was an activist

1489
01:28:12,160 --> 01:28:18,000
that got involved and the stock
jumped like 8% or something.

1490
01:28:19,240 --> 01:28:24,160
It was hold on, it was a 22 and
it jumped to 2450.

1491
01:28:24,960 --> 01:28:27,560
I'm pretty sure I was out by
like, you know, 23, eight, I was

1492
01:28:27,560 --> 01:28:31,680
out.
And the reason why I sold this

1493
01:28:31,680 --> 01:28:34,280
because I actually had no idea
who this activist investor was.

1494
01:28:36,600 --> 01:28:42,480
It's like, hold on, it's up 10%
on an activist, but I've no idea

1495
01:28:42,480 --> 01:28:45,560
who the activist is.
And Elliot was there as an

1496
01:28:45,560 --> 01:28:47,440
activist and they didn't manage
anything.

1497
01:28:48,680 --> 01:28:50,840
So I'm out and I'm going to buy
it lower.

1498
01:28:51,320 --> 01:28:55,000
And I just, I just kept seeing
it going lower.

1499
01:28:55,000 --> 01:28:57,680
Now it's a 20.
I should probably just check on

1500
01:28:57,680 --> 01:29:00,640
it again.
You mentioned before we hit the

1501
01:29:00,640 --> 01:29:04,480
record button, Shrub was you're
thinking of buying a mining

1502
01:29:04,480 --> 01:29:07,400
stock at the moment.
You didn't tell us what it was,

1503
01:29:08,040 --> 01:29:09,840
but I've got to ask you the
question.

1504
01:29:09,840 --> 01:29:12,440
What's what's on your radar?
Yeah.

1505
01:29:12,440 --> 01:29:16,840
So no.
So basically that was we started

1506
01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:21,160
this conversation by, I came in
this morning and I just saw so

1507
01:29:21,160 --> 01:29:28,360
much hatred on oil and copper
and commodities in general.

1508
01:29:28,360 --> 01:29:34,360
Like it was a really, really
negative sentiment around all

1509
01:29:34,360 --> 01:29:36,400
these spaces.
So I had, So we started this

1510
01:29:36,400 --> 01:29:41,280
conversation before we hit the
record saying I'm, I'm happy

1511
01:29:41,280 --> 01:29:43,880
we're doing this timing wise
because I want to sit down and

1512
01:29:43,880 --> 01:29:48,200
think about which stocks I
should be buying mining.

1513
01:29:48,200 --> 01:29:51,640
So I haven't decided what to
buy, but I just want to sit down

1514
01:29:51,640 --> 01:29:55,920
and just see if I should be
buying energy here or, or some

1515
01:29:55,920 --> 01:29:58,200
mining names.
And you know, like if I do, I'm

1516
01:29:58,200 --> 01:30:00,720
probably going to go with like
something really simple, like,

1517
01:30:00,720 --> 01:30:03,440
you know, the big liquid ones
and be done with it until I

1518
01:30:03,440 --> 01:30:07,480
figure out where everything is.
But you know, I mean, just a

1519
01:30:07,480 --> 01:30:12,840
simple, you know, simple example
about how one should be thinking

1520
01:30:12,840 --> 01:30:17,120
about this.
Like if I sold Peabody at 24 and

1521
01:30:17,120 --> 01:30:21,280
it's a 20, well, that was in My
Portfolio 2 weeks ago.

1522
01:30:21,320 --> 01:30:25,040
I should be going back to look
at Peabody and see, you know, if

1523
01:30:25,040 --> 01:30:28,680
I should be buying back Peabody
as an example or, you know, like

1524
01:30:30,120 --> 01:30:32,040
energy, like let's just do
energy.

1525
01:30:32,040 --> 01:30:38,240
So Oxy Buffett was buying it in
the 60s, seventies and

1526
01:30:38,240 --> 01:30:41,120
Occidental is now at 50.
You know, should you be buying

1527
01:30:41,280 --> 01:30:44,880
Occidental as an energy plate?
You know, just simple examples.

1528
01:30:44,880 --> 01:30:49,240
This is this is kind of what I'm
going to do now and just go

1529
01:30:49,240 --> 01:30:55,320
through a few charts and and
favourite indicators.

1530
01:30:57,240 --> 01:31:00,840
It is pretty remarkable to see
the the last month or so and we,

1531
01:31:00,840 --> 01:31:05,000
we feel it, you know, quite sort
of viscerally here in being in,

1532
01:31:05,000 --> 01:31:08,720
in West Perth here with such a,
a resource focus.

1533
01:31:08,720 --> 01:31:13,720
But like we've sort of spoken
about copper, lithium, every

1534
01:31:13,720 --> 01:31:17,800
sort of metal under the sun and
in particular the, the bulks,

1535
01:31:17,840 --> 01:31:21,240
you know, iron ore is, is the
main one that that drives our

1536
01:31:21,240 --> 01:31:24,040
state here and the country to an
extent.

1537
01:31:24,400 --> 01:31:27,560
And the, the headlines are sort
of popping up every day with

1538
01:31:27,560 --> 01:31:31,160
it's sort of breaching below
briefly US 90 bucks a tonne for

1539
01:31:31,160 --> 01:31:38,400
the 60 two 2% grade product.
There's a, you know, it's either

1540
01:31:38,400 --> 01:31:40,720
one or the other, you know,
everyone's either gangbusters

1541
01:31:40,720 --> 01:31:43,520
and happy or everyone's
terrified and it's the end and

1542
01:31:44,000 --> 01:31:46,120
China's no longer going to buy
stuff.

1543
01:31:46,120 --> 01:31:49,920
And it's kind of all over.
So that that fear and grade

1544
01:31:49,920 --> 01:31:52,520
dynamic is, is very sort of
prevalent and interesting to

1545
01:31:52,520 --> 01:31:56,000
sort of feel and see.
Yeah.

1546
01:31:56,000 --> 01:31:58,120
I mean, that's, that's kind of
where I see my job.

1547
01:31:58,400 --> 01:32:02,920
My job is basically to, I mean,
it's so cliche, you know, being

1548
01:32:02,920 --> 01:32:05,280
greedy when others are fearful
and fearful when others are

1549
01:32:05,280 --> 01:32:07,840
greedy kind of thing.
But to be honest, this market

1550
01:32:07,840 --> 01:32:11,000
has been giving you the chances
to trade around it.

1551
01:32:11,520 --> 01:32:15,800
And you know, I have this one of
my silly little sayings.

1552
01:32:16,200 --> 01:32:19,560
Bears get slaughtered, bulls get
slaughtered, shrubs

1553
01:32:19,560 --> 01:32:23,920
photosynthesize.
Like, you know, I mean, everyone

1554
01:32:23,920 --> 01:32:26,280
is getting bulled up at the
highs and everyone's getting

1555
01:32:26,280 --> 01:32:27,920
bearish at the lows.
You know, why don't you just

1556
01:32:28,520 --> 01:32:29,720
play the range and be done with
it?

1557
01:32:29,720 --> 01:32:35,000
Like you know, like I have the
if oil was at 80 and now it's at

1558
01:32:35,000 --> 01:32:37,720
66.
You shouldn't be getting very

1559
01:32:37,720 --> 01:32:39,680
foil now.
You should be looking at stuff

1560
01:32:39,680 --> 01:32:41,840
like Occidental and see if it's
a good buy or not.

1561
01:32:42,000 --> 01:32:45,200
I mean, we haven't said the
words, but sort of main revision

1562
01:32:45,200 --> 01:32:49,920
seems very much to be front and
centre, a sort of a backbone to

1563
01:32:49,920 --> 01:32:53,720
your, to your style.
Yeah, big time, big time.

1564
01:32:53,880 --> 01:32:55,960
I just like to.
I like to feed the monkeys.

1565
01:32:56,040 --> 01:33:01,160
That's what I call it.
And you know, the nice thing

1566
01:33:01,160 --> 01:33:04,160
about mean reversion is you can
also set a stop if you're wrong.

1567
01:33:04,280 --> 01:33:06,520
So if you're wrong, like you
know, so be it.

1568
01:33:06,520 --> 01:33:09,560
You get stopped 10% lower, you
get a chance to play again.

1569
01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:13,800
But if you're bullish and you
keep buying and gets, you know,

1570
01:33:13,800 --> 01:33:17,400
the dip gets bigger and gets
bigger and bigger and you're

1571
01:33:17,400 --> 01:33:19,680
down 50% on a trade and you
didn't realise it.

1572
01:33:20,120 --> 01:33:24,280
Or if you're, you know, super
bearish and you know, everything

1573
01:33:24,280 --> 01:33:29,240
just keeps ripping against you.
I just feel it's, it's a much

1574
01:33:29,240 --> 01:33:33,560
healthier basically because the
market is in such an indecisive

1575
01:33:33,560 --> 01:33:37,880
mode and because there is a lot
of money in the system still.

1576
01:33:37,920 --> 01:33:42,680
That's why we still have, we get
these mean reversions in a wild

1577
01:33:42,680 --> 01:33:44,440
way.
I mean, you know, just look at

1578
01:33:44,440 --> 01:33:47,080
an example in August, how
quickly the market bounced.

1579
01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:51,480
So we had a -, 9% and a + 9% in
one month.

1580
01:33:53,520 --> 01:33:58,200
But you know, at the -9%, Kramer
came out and said that the

1581
01:33:58,200 --> 01:34:01,520
market isn't oversold still yet,
right?

1582
01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:05,320
So like, mine is 9%.
Everyone on CNBC was saying this

1583
01:34:05,320 --> 01:34:07,680
is a big crash and it's going to
get so much worse.

1584
01:34:07,920 --> 01:34:10,560
And then we had a 10% rally that
no one called for.

1585
01:34:11,280 --> 01:34:16,120
So what I'm saying is,
unfortunately in the case of

1586
01:34:16,240 --> 01:34:18,800
commodities and oil, we don't
have the same cheerleading as we

1587
01:34:18,800 --> 01:34:22,360
do with NVIDIA.
So it's a bit more difficult to

1588
01:34:22,400 --> 01:34:24,880
to have these sharp bounces.
But you know, let me, let me,

1589
01:34:25,160 --> 01:34:29,640
let me put something that no one
is talking about now.

1590
01:34:29,640 --> 01:34:34,080
What if China does a stimulus?
I know we've gone through this

1591
01:34:34,080 --> 01:34:39,760
100 times, but you know, one day
they might so so it'd.

1592
01:34:40,160 --> 01:34:43,360
Be a lot of happy people.
It's when, yeah, it'd be a lot

1593
01:34:43,360 --> 01:34:45,040
of happy people where you are.
So.

1594
01:34:46,320 --> 01:34:50,000
So what I'm saying is, you know,
sentiment can change very

1595
01:34:50,000 --> 01:34:52,280
quickly and it can get killed
very quickly.

1596
01:34:52,280 --> 01:34:55,560
Unfortunately for, for mining
stuff, you know, the sentiment

1597
01:34:55,560 --> 01:34:58,520
does tend to get worse and worse
and worse.

1598
01:34:59,640 --> 01:35:02,520
And it doesn't bounce as easily
as in tech.

1599
01:35:02,560 --> 01:35:08,160
Like in tech, they had one week
of red and it just bounced back

1600
01:35:08,160 --> 01:35:14,880
straight out.
But you know, that's, it's that

1601
01:35:14,920 --> 01:35:16,600
that's what gives opportunities,
right?

1602
01:35:18,680 --> 01:35:21,880
Can you sort of see a world, I
know this was a thing that came

1603
01:35:21,880 --> 01:35:25,760
up a lot maybe 2-2 years ago,
but can you see a world where

1604
01:35:26,160 --> 01:35:29,400
energy and and sort of mining,
whatever they kind of make up

1605
01:35:29,400 --> 01:35:35,200
say, I don't know, 5% of the S&P
where they actually make up a, a

1606
01:35:35,200 --> 01:35:39,800
much more substantial portion of
the, the market?

1607
01:35:42,160 --> 01:35:46,240
Yeah, I think that's why, you
know, NVIDIA has to die.

1608
01:35:47,400 --> 01:35:53,360
The NVIDIA casino has to end for
that to happen because you need

1609
01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:57,320
to see that shift take place.
You know, you can't have like,

1610
01:35:58,560 --> 01:36:01,280
because, you know, I mean,
Travis, you asked that question

1611
01:36:01,280 --> 01:36:03,160
earlier.
Who benefits from fake data?

1612
01:36:03,160 --> 01:36:04,920
Well, I can tell you who
benefits from passive.

1613
01:36:05,040 --> 01:36:10,840
It's all the, you know, the big
institutional funds like, you

1614
01:36:10,840 --> 01:36:13,240
know, the black rocks of the
world, They, they absolutely

1615
01:36:13,240 --> 01:36:18,280
love passive, right?
For big market makers love

1616
01:36:18,280 --> 01:36:25,200
passive and big market makers
love NVIDIA because you know, it

1617
01:36:25,200 --> 01:36:31,240
trades.
I'm going to say like 10 tens of

1618
01:36:31,240 --> 01:36:34,400
times more than the whole of the
mining space a day.

1619
01:36:35,040 --> 01:36:37,520
Like imagine you're a broker
that just trades NVIDIA.

1620
01:36:37,560 --> 01:36:40,160
Would you choose to trade NVIDIA
or all the mining and energy in

1621
01:36:40,160 --> 01:36:42,800
the world?
You're going to trade NVIDIA

1622
01:36:43,360 --> 01:36:45,680
because that's where all the
monkeys are gambling on.

1623
01:36:45,680 --> 01:36:47,520
You know, it trades 40 billion a
day.

1624
01:36:49,360 --> 01:36:51,240
I mean, let's just see how much
BHP trades a day.

1625
01:36:51,280 --> 01:36:55,240
Hold on, let's let's do this.
So in Australia is your most

1626
01:36:55,240 --> 01:36:58,240
liquid stock?
I would guess so today traded

1627
01:36:59,040 --> 01:37:07,560
300 million, $1,000,000, right?
And NVIDIA yesterday traded $30

1628
01:37:07,560 --> 01:37:11,040
billion.
So there you go.

1629
01:37:11,480 --> 01:37:15,360
That's that's your answer.
That's your answer, yeah. 40

1630
01:37:15,360 --> 01:37:17,000
billion US.
Wow.

1631
01:37:17,600 --> 01:37:19,520
Yeah.
So that that's your answer.

1632
01:37:19,600 --> 01:37:26,800
So basically to get that 5% in
energy to be 5% in of the S&P

1633
01:37:26,800 --> 01:37:30,920
and energy mining to become 10%,
well you need to see the rest

1634
01:37:31,680 --> 01:37:34,280
compressed, which to be honest
is what happened in 2000.

1635
01:37:35,320 --> 01:37:37,680
No, 2000 to 2006, that's what
happened.

1636
01:37:38,800 --> 01:37:41,000
We were in the same position.
I mean, if you ask me, I think

1637
01:37:41,000 --> 01:37:44,280
there's probably more parallels
with 2000 than with 2007.

1638
01:37:45,960 --> 01:37:48,240
Yeah.
You know, extreme concentration,

1639
01:37:48,240 --> 01:37:52,360
yeah, extreme concentration,
tech bubble, if you want to call

1640
01:37:52,360 --> 01:37:55,400
it a bubble or not, whatever.
But you know, tech, tech

1641
01:37:55,400 --> 01:38:00,560
excitement, Internet versus AI
beaten up cyclicals, which is

1642
01:38:00,560 --> 01:38:05,320
where we are today.
Potential for like a mild

1643
01:38:05,320 --> 01:38:07,480
recession, which I think there
is a potential for a mild

1644
01:38:07,480 --> 01:38:14,000
recession and coming out of it,
cyclicals just screamed to the

1645
01:38:14,000 --> 01:38:16,240
moon where whereas tech was
doing nothing.

1646
01:38:18,160 --> 01:38:22,000
Yeah, well it's an exciting time
to be looking at cyclical

1647
01:38:22,000 --> 01:38:25,360
companies then, mate.
NVIDIA is a cyclical company

1648
01:38:25,360 --> 01:38:26,120
though.
What are you talking about,

1649
01:38:26,120 --> 01:38:28,360
Shrub?
Exactly.

1650
01:38:28,680 --> 01:38:32,400
There you go, a different cycle.
We could talk to you.

1651
01:38:33,040 --> 01:38:35,280
We could talk to you all night
our time shrub.

1652
01:38:35,280 --> 01:38:39,960
But you know, I think we'll,
we'll, we'll save the, the rest

1653
01:38:39,960 --> 01:38:44,360
for, for another day.
And yeah, look forward to, to,

1654
01:38:44,760 --> 01:38:47,680
to speaking with you again.
It's, it's been a real privilege

1655
01:38:47,680 --> 01:38:51,560
to, to unpack the way you think
and, and, and sort of dive into,

1656
01:38:51,600 --> 01:38:53,360
yeah, the way you're looking at
Marcus at the moment.

1657
01:38:54,080 --> 01:38:55,400
Thanks for making the time.
Brilliant.

1658
01:38:56,200 --> 01:38:57,360
Really enjoyed it.
Thanks, JD.

1659
01:38:57,360 --> 01:38:58,920
Thanks, Travis.
Had a lot of fun.

1660
01:38:58,920 --> 01:39:00,440
Let's do this again.
Cheers, Rob.

1661
01:39:00,560 --> 01:39:01,760
Thank you.
All right, mate.

1662
01:39:01,960 --> 01:39:04,400
That was that was awesome.
And I think we've taken plenty

1663
01:39:04,400 --> 01:39:07,640
of the money miners time on this
Friday, Saturday or Sunday on

1664
01:39:07,640 --> 01:39:09,000
whatever day you are listening
on.

1665
01:39:09,000 --> 01:39:12,800
So wrap it up quickly with a
thanks to the good people at

1666
01:39:12,800 --> 01:39:16,840
Axis Mining Technology, Mineral
Mining Services, Verify, Adia,

1667
01:39:16,840 --> 01:39:21,000
DSI Underground Silverstone, who
we had in the show, CRE

1668
01:39:21,000 --> 01:39:23,720
Insurance, Greenland's
equipment, K drill also in the

1669
01:39:23,720 --> 01:39:27,000
show and use the spark chart
while you're at it.

1670
01:39:27,160 --> 01:39:28,520
Trev.
Have a good weekend, mate.

1671
01:39:28,520 --> 01:39:31,080
Hodoro, Hodoro.
Information contained in this

1672
01:39:31,080 --> 01:39:33,800
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1673
01:39:33,800 --> 01:39:36,440
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1674
01:39:36,480 --> 01:39:38,520
or needs of any particular
person.

1675
01:39:38,800 --> 01:39:41,840
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1676
01:39:41,840 --> 01:39:44,920
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1677
01:39:44,920 --> 01:39:48,600
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.