Is this the final reset for Bellevue?

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Who's going to be running
Bellevue in FY20?

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7?
That's good, mum.

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Is it cheating if I say the
same?

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Do I have to go different?
Righto buddy, miners buddy.

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I've figured out five day
conference takes five days to

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get the voice back.
I'm I'm in day four of voice

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recovery.
Day.

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Four.
What a bloody week.

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Sounds like your voice is about
70%. 70% I'm nearly there one

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more day but you don't mind.
The had a haircut and a

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different hat so I think my face
looks chubbier but anyway.

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Going for a new look, Maddie.
Thanks Oz, I meant for a bloody

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great work.
Sounds like a rising stars.

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Good times, boys.
Sounded wicked.

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Bellevue the news has coming up
today, so that is probably going

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to take up the whole show.
I, I think we may as well just

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talk about it.
It feels like, it feels like

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they kept everyone in suspense
for, for, for a while not being

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in, in voluntary suspension and,
and we finally get used today

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that there's an equity race to
go with it.

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Yes, one of the best sealed
suspensions going around.

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Most of them are like that.
But it was, yeah, it didn't like

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there was a lot of speculations.
But no, no, like very rigid

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rumours during that period I
think.

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I would say like my prediction
last week was based on nothing

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was I, I wouldn't have been
surprised if they didn't come

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out of suspension at all and it
was just going to be a a sale.

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I was sort of surprised it got
to this stage.

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That'd be brave, yeah.
Yeah.

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So because I assume there
probably would have been a bit

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of interest during the
suspension which we'll go into,

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which was mentioned.
So yeah, a lot to cover.

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So let's take it away.
I guess, I guess first and

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foremost guidance first thing,
right.

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So FY25 redone at 1:29 to 1:34
at a midpoint of just under 2500

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Aussie all in sustaining.
So kind of like we touched on

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Maddie, that puts it at kind of
40 to 45,000 oz needed for the

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final quarter of the financial
year.

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Yeah.
And then obviously you've got

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the the five year plan being
wiped 150,000 oz marked for next

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financial year and then a kind
of three-year period where they

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do 190,000 oz.
So that's a kind of basic five

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year ish plan, right?
Yeah.

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So essentially looks like for
the moment, the whole 200,000 oz

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numbers being what like doing
the doing the calcs for 190,000

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oz, that's sounded about 1.2
million ton per annum at the

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reserve grade of 5 grams a ton.
They did say on the call they

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were talking about 1.35, but
then they were saying the

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reserve wasn't going to be
changed.

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Well, one thing is probably
surprising that the reserve

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guard wasn't dropped, but it's
these were like not gardens

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numbers that 190.
There's like a indicative

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prediction for FY20 6.
So yeah, it was.

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It's a fairway off where where
they'd last signal when they

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raised money right like that was
they've raised their last equity

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and and sort of talked about it
at 250,000 oz per annum kind of.

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Yeah, yeah, we and efficient
those, Yeah.

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So those they're probably the
numbers that aren't sort of

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adding up saying 1.6 million
tonne was going to get them

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250,000 oz, but now they're
indicating maybe 1.21 point 3 is

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going to get them 190,000 oz.
So which makes me think I don't

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can't say it being it, it
potentially just might not be a

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5 grand, might it might be a 4
1/2, but I haven't yet said they

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are down grading the reserve.
Yeah, exactly.

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To that point, Maddie, there was
the question kind of asked and

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they were kind of prying into
that.

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That sort of 60,000 oz per annum
reduction that we're seeing, is

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that purely a result of instead
of doing 1.6 million ton per

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annum doing 1.35 or have you
worked in a bit of buffer by

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being a bit conservative in your
reserve?

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And the signalling from
management was that it's mainly

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a factor of just those through
that throughput number coming

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down and not actually
conservatism in in the reserve

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grade, which we've of course
sort of seen kind of trimmed

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last year or so.
So yeah, I think you're, you're

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on the right track there.
I was kind of expecting that a

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bit as well when you see that
they're they're going a bit more

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cautiously at the overall output
of the mine.

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Yeah.
And you look at like you look at

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the photos here, like in terms
of, you know, trying to figure

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out what the reserve grade is
from a geological estimation

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point of view.
And you look at like, you know,

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this top picture here, you see,
see a lot of like bits of this

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is just in the drive itself.
Who knows what's in between the

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levels and everything.
But like you see bits of

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internal waste there, like in a,
in a couple of spots, like you

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see in one picture down the
bottom, it's like pretty wide in

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the drive.
And then you see it pinch up at

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the top.
So I think there's a lot of

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pinching, swelling, bit of
internal waste here and there.

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So trying to wrap a accurate
number around the reserve is

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probably a bit challenging
whether I don't know if 5 grams

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is what they consider
conservative or not.

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But maybe there's a lot of
factors that contribute to they

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talked about in the the blind
Stopes that I'll say they're

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talking about 3 blind Stopes
they took at the end of quarter

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had a lot the fault cut it off
at a point.

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So they took a lot of waste.
So by the sounds, there's a lot

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of cross cutting like faults
that can shift the ore around

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like that's that's on the
extremities.

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Look, I'm not sure.
I think there might be also

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faults within the drives that
can sort of jump it around a bit

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and you can follow it in the
drive, but there might be a

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fault up in the middle of the
stope that you don't know is

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there until you mine it in the
grades lower.

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So there's a lot of, yeah, it
sounds like they they do point

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to geological complexities.
I think they worded it or for

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parts of the quarter.
So I think that's probably going

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to be a a thing going forward.
You could, you could kind of

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infer that that degree of, you
know, confidence or lack

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thereof.
When they talked about they said

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the June, the June quarter mine
plan is, is 90% delineated with

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great control and they said the
next two quarters.

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So in September and December
quarters are 75% delineated with

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greater control.
So yeah, there's, there's,

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there's, there's confidence to
be to be had through through all

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of that.
But but no, no reserve downgrade

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yet.
Yeah, just just a change in

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change in guidance and.
Yeah, I I think they'll get it

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by tonnes.
Like it looks like with the

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upgrades they've done in the
middle, they've shown that they

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can get 1.35 million tonne
through on an annualised rate.

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So I think if you do the maths,
1.3 million tonne at 4 1/2 grams

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is 190,000 oz, whereas I think
it's 1.187 at 5 grams is 190,000

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oz.
So I think it's like, I think

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they've got the capacity to get
the tons through extra to

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compensate if there is a bit
lower grade than expected.

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But who will own it?
That's that's the other thing.

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But 190,000 oz at 2 1/2 thousand
all in sustaining cost.

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Yeah, bloody take it any day of
the week in this pricing

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environment.
So it is dressed up as, you

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know, something that will be
appealing.

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But we'll get to that.
A. 100% what?

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About what about the raise, JD?
Yeah, let's let's talk about the

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raise before we jump the gun and
get into to who's going to be

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the owner of the mine in in due
course or have a brainstorm

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about how that plays out.
But 156 bucks at $0.85 is the

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raise.
So 26% discount to the last

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close or 30% discount to the
five day V what before they went

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into halt, you know, just
chatting with people and hearing

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rumours and stuff.
Some some rumours were that it

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would be at a bit of a steeper
discount.

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I mean it is what it is at the
end of the day, it's a it's a

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fairly common money after they
raised not all that long ago in

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terms of the the use of funds
about 110 million is going

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towards closing at hedges which
we'll speak to as well and 40

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million just going in, in the
bank for, for working capital.

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That kind of leaves them with
about 90 million bucks to see

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them through over the the next
few quarters.

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And then of course that 100
million dollars in debt that

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they've got which is payable in
in sort of four lots over the

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the calendar year 27 period.
Yeah, 'cause you would have

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thought with that suspension it
was going to be 75 like 30 plus

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percent discount.
Well, that was the sort of the

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thoughts which which indicates
there's to get a 26% discount

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after being in suspension that
long is like somewhat some fund

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or something has probably come
in pretty big and set that price

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I would assume what do you.
What do you reckon the the raise

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price would have been if they
didn't, didn't allude to a

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strategic review and, and
corporate bids?

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That's an interesting question,
right?

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Like if they didn't say that, I
reckon they would have that

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raise would have been a, you
know, that's the carrot.

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Maybe even $0.10 lower, Like who
knows?

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Like it's, yeah.
I think they, I think whether

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they raised or not, it would
have opened at exactly the same

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price.
It was, it was actually trading.

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They got an OTC listing which
was which you know, you can't

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couldn't hold that.
So that thing was trading at 50

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US cents I think I saw.
So I don't know how much

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liquidity there is on that, but
that's that's to some degree a

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bit of a price barometer and
install of everything that's

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going on.
Yeah.

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And it looks like it looks like
the the March, the March quarter

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was obviously the catalyst to
this whole event.

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Like, you know, 25,000 oz at all
in sustaining costs of 3125.

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Like they've talked about, you
say in the comments talking to

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like localized geology,
geological complexity, some sub

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optimal mining practices, which
indicate and it's what we've

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said all along.
I think there's there's always

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been a bit from column a bit
from column BA bit from column

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C.
So there's geological stuff,

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probably some dilution or like
there, there's just been a bit

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of everything that bloody is
causing to fall short.

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So.
Yeah, to your point, Maddie, on

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the on the faults as well at
Fiago specifically delaying

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access, they said to a, to a
high grade Stoke hits it because

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I think the head grade came in
at 3.1g per ton.

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And obviously, you know, there's
a few factors playing into that

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one, but not being able to get
into some higher grade spots is

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not advantageous, right?
And as well as that, mate, the

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Viagra decline was delayed.
So that's sort of been been

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pushed out a bit.
And to, to kind of give the

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market and give investors a bit
of confidence.

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I think they spoke to April's
head grade coming in line with

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expectations, IE sort of better
than what we've seen over the,

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the March period.
As well as that, you've got the,

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the review of the resource
model, which I think everyone's

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pretty, you know, was pretty
eager to to sort of see and

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they, they reiterate confidence.
They kind of speak to how little

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of the the near term answers are
coming from inferred.

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And you know, I mean, there's
only so far out.

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You can kind of do that before
it gets cost prohibitive, but I

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think that's certainly things
people wanted to see.

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Yeah.
And like the new, the new mind

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plan they put out, we went over
the physicals before.

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But look, they've pretty much
it's a bit of a scale back.

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They're going from what 6 jumbos
back down to 5.

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They're going to sort of,
they're obviously wiping all, a

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lot of the CapEx to go out to
these new areas.

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It says that like they've the
Viago mining area.

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I think they're delaying going
out there.

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So they've put ground conditions
as the cause of it.

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So that might be just passed on
to someone else to go Chuck a

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00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:05,200
upgraded ground support regime
in because it's like they've

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sort of, I think it's pretty
good ground everywhere there

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with, you know, the standard
split sets of mesh.

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So it sounds like that area
would probably need a bit extra.

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So that's probably a good thing
to leave someone else to call

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Sandvik for a bloody ground.
Some ground support products

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that absolutely might be used
there, which I got to see in

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00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,040
underground operators.
It would have been shining

223
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,880
colours.
Look at me standing with the

224
00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,200
billion dollar man here.
I have a look at him.

225
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:37,400
Derek an A man heard.
I'd say he looks $1,000,000, but

226
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:38,200
he looks a billion.
Dollars.

227
00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,520
He is a bloody billion dollars.
Did I say million before billion

228
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,040
dollar million?
Yeah, that's what they call in

229
00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:44,960
him.
And so mate should have seen on

230
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,680
showcase this could be good for
the Viago.

231
00:12:46,680 --> 00:12:50,120
Actually.
It's like a it's a self drilling

232
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,600
posi mix bolt with a like a
hollow centre with the there's

233
00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,840
new resin injection technology
that they're gonna bloody bolt

234
00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,200
onto the Sandvik jumbos, squirt
it up the whole encapsulate

235
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:07,440
around the posi mix bolt and
absolutely revolutionize the

236
00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:10,440
installation of posi mix bolts.
All because of the billion

237
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,000
dollar man.
Unbelievable, mate.

238
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,960
Good move, Sandvik.
I can't there's bloody that

239
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:19,280
there was bloody mate.
Resin injection was the feel of

240
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:20,840
the conference.
That is interesting.

241
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,560
I'm.
Glad they're all about green

242
00:13:22,560 --> 00:13:24,320
energy.
I can tell you that that that

243
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,160
that wasn't even to be seen at
the conference.

244
00:13:26,160 --> 00:13:30,240
She's all about resin injection.
So mate, good to see the billion

245
00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:31,720
dollar man so.
Go, Sandvik.

246
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:32,920
Go.
Sandvik ground support.

247
00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:36,680
So what else?
JD, you got some other go

248
00:13:36,680 --> 00:13:38,720
through the update.
We can just, yeah, we'll just

249
00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:41,480
fly through the rest of the mine
plan update, right?

250
00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,480
Because I think it's kind of
important in how the narratives

251
00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,440
kind of change because when they
came out last year with the

252
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:52,400
capital raise, we, we all kind
of knew it was to address

253
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,080
underlying issues, but they kind
of had to wrap this big growth

254
00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,640
narrative around it.
And obviously they've, they've

255
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,680
backtracked on, on a few of
those.

256
00:14:00,680 --> 00:14:03,040
So they've kind of spoken to
reducing reliance on the

257
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:07,560
Marceline mining area, a bit of
a reduction in the Deacon main

258
00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:12,440
average Oz delivery also, as
well as Viago delayed access to

259
00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,480
Deacon N.
So that's been pushed out by 6

260
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:17,720
months.
And then Maddie, you'll, you'll

261
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,960
speak to this point a bit
better, but they speak about

262
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:24,640
increasing in the, the lower
mind pillar sizes by 60%.

263
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:29,600
So from memory below the the 550
sort of level, they're changing

264
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:31,320
how they're going about things
down there.

265
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:36,200
Yeah, it sounds like I didn't
find, I didn't write enough on

266
00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,560
that, but I assume they're
either making the pillars bigger

267
00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,760
or putting more pillars in and
reducing the strike length of

268
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:44,560
the stipes.
So they're obviously identifying

269
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,920
as they go to depth, they might
have some increased stress and

270
00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,320
they need more pillars left
between the stipes.

271
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,280
So I'm not sure if they're just
making the pillars bigger or

272
00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:59,240
they're putting more pillars in,
which is 6 essentially 60% more

273
00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:01,080
pillars being left in the
ground.

274
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:05,160
So yeah.
Yeah.

275
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,440
And to to wrap numbers, cost
numbers around that they speak

276
00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:13,520
to 35 to $42 million per month
being the the all in, you know

277
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,880
corporate exploration, the
all-encompassing cost base that

278
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,920
they're going to experience
through FY20 6 and FY20 7.

279
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,960
So doing a bit of Bush maths on
those numbers.

280
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,120
If you take them, I'll have some
Bush maths, JD.

281
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,120
I did it just for you mate.
So if you take the midpoint and

282
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:34,880
analyze those numbers over FY20
6 where we're talking about

283
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:40,200
150,000 ounces of output, you're
talking about unit costs of a

284
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:43,480
bit over 3000 Aussie an ounce.
Now remember, not all in

285
00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,200
sustaining costs.
This is, this is kind of

286
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,840
everything or most of everything
in it.

287
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,160
Now if, if my numbers are, are
right, hopefully they are,

288
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,600
that's a cash flow of a bit over
$300 million Aussie in FY20. 6

289
00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,520
back of the envelope after they
pay out the hedges like they've

290
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,200
said there is a $110 million
liability that still needs to be

291
00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:09,320
paid over FY20 6 So I just net
that off against the cash flow

292
00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:13,000
and you're getting about 200
million ish in, in free cash

293
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:14,280
over that.
That period.

294
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,080
Again, might be a bit of
interest and and other things

295
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,080
they need to pay on the fringes
there over FY20 7 when they move

296
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:25,520
up to that 190,000 oz per annum
profile, the unit cost pull down

297
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,640
because the the total costs are
the same.

298
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,520
Just using that midpoint again
and you get a unit cost of a bit

299
00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,360
under 2 1/2 thousand Aussie an
ounce.

300
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:39,240
So at these gold prices, super
healthy margin, that's 2700

301
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:43,160
bucks an ounce or cash flow of a
bit over 500 million.

302
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,600
Again, of course, big hedge
liability, 130 million over that

303
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,360
period.
That's the kind of delta at the

304
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,120
moment we're seeing there.
And as well as that you'll have

305
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,760
50 million bucks that needs to
be paid in the first half of

306
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:59,080
calendar year 27 in debt.
So that leaves about 330 million

307
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,160
bucks for the owners.
So not, not too bad.

308
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:04,800
And I think that's going to tie
in well with our our

309
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,720
conversation on who wants to own
this or who might be interested,

310
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,040
especially when it comes to
tomorrow.

311
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:12,839
And we see where the thing
starts trading at.

312
00:17:12,839 --> 00:17:16,680
But that gets you a bit of a a
ballpark for a company that if

313
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:22,040
they come out at $0.85, it's a
market cap of around about $1.25

314
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:26,599
billion.
So you know, you, it'll, we, I

315
00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:29,120
think it'll be enticing for some
people, but I think we'll, we'll

316
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:31,200
talk through a few more
different aspects before we, we

317
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:32,400
get to that point.
Yeah, I know.

318
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,560
I think it like the interesting
thing about that we're just

319
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:40,000
talking about it before is once
it'd be interesting to say now

320
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,360
that they're they've slowed down
a bit, they're going to, as you

321
00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:46,600
said, focus, focus on quality a
bit more like like the really

322
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,640
focus on the OR extraction and
the like de risking and like

323
00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,280
risk profiling each area to make
sure it's drilled.

324
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,240
They know where the faults are
and everything.

325
00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:01,000
It's like whether they're going
to be always struggling to hit

326
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,520
guidance, it's always going to
be a push or there's some

327
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:07,680
potential upside where they can
freaking have a 60 like a high

328
00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,720
grade month and a 60,000 oz
month.

329
00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:14,400
Like it's yet to be seen if like
there is that potential

330
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,960
outperformance in the ore body
or not.

331
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,000
Once they really iron in on
everything or it's going to be

332
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,520
one that they're going to, it's
just going to really struggle to

333
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,720
hit, you know, 45,000 oz each
quarter.

334
00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,280
When they get to that point, who
will know?

335
00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,040
But it, it sounds like when
they're talking about delaying,

336
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:35,560
was it delaying the Deacon NI
think?

337
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,960
So it sounds like that one,
which which obviously means,

338
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:40,880
right.
We we could go there now because

339
00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,400
I assume that's one of the
bloody deacons, the high grade

340
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:49,400
area or we can delayed save the
CapEx and then make 27/28/29 a

341
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,800
much smoother period.
So it's good.

342
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:56,360
It's just I think this and to be
honest, I think this is what

343
00:18:56,360 --> 00:19:00,280
everyone wanted.
They just wanted to like a, a, a

344
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:05,440
realistic something that they're
like, yeah, no, that sounds,

345
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,040
that sounds achievable.
It's not over ambitious.

346
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,160
It's not like we're like a bit
of belief that like, yeah, we're

347
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,280
like 190 a 190,000 oz.
Yeah, we feel that could be

348
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,920
achieved.
And at a not at $1500 all in

349
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,280
sustaining.
So yeah, it's this is this is

350
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,440
what I think the big dogs have
been wanting for a while.

351
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,800
Yeah, for sure.
And you got Trav.

352
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:34,960
Yeah, it's kind of symptomatic
of like a like expectations have

353
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,080
been set too, too large for
what's doable here.

354
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,960
And that's that's kind of why
the Bellevue's been like a big

355
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,960
underperformer amidst every
other kind of gold name just

356
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,000
really, you know, benefiting
from this, this gold price

357
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,360
environment.
Yeah, it's it's you don't want,

358
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,880
you don't want expectations to
be beyond what's achievable

359
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,160
because then, you know, you
actually want to, you actually

360
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,520
want to be able to outperform
market expectations

361
00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,080
consistently.
And that's, that's how you,

362
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,280
that's how you, you know, become
a market darling.

363
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,600
That's how the market loves you.
But this unfortunately Bobby was

364
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,000
a market darling before it could
prove itself because the

365
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,960
expectations are so big.
So it's, yeah, it's unfortunate,

366
00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,160
but hopefully that recalibrating
of expectations of what's

367
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,400
actually like doable and then
constantly setting them

368
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,880
realistic and then over
delivering will well, will you

369
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,280
know, help it help.
Navigate the next period.

370
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:26,200
Ahead as well as as well as like
market expectations Macquarie

371
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,960
has to have their their
expectations sort of regauged

372
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,320
right because you've got these
these covenants and all these

373
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,960
other sort of bits and pieces
that are based around the

374
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,960
original my plan.
So they, Macquarie sort of said

375
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,360
that they've waived their review
event kind of rights and this

376
00:20:44,360 --> 00:20:47,440
was triggered by the, the
quarterly production test at the

377
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,680
back end of the, the March
quarter.

378
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,880
In simple terms that the output
over the March period is just

379
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,520
not close enough to the mine
plan.

380
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:55,840
I would guess.
I mean, there's a few other ways

381
00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,280
of, of assessing them, but to
quarry the lender, they want to

382
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,440
be, they want to be safe, they
want to reassess their risk and

383
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,800
they have rights when these
things are sort of breached.

384
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,640
So you need to go and present
the new mine plan to them, get

385
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,880
their permission.
And with their permission as

386
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:12,800
well, close out, close out the
hedges.

387
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,120
And of course, all of this
stuff, they, they're going to

388
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,000
get paid as well, right?
Sort of in the fine print,

389
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,840
they're getting eight and a half
million shares just to to

390
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,760
restructure and for the
privilege of paying out the the

391
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,040
hedges.
For zero, for 0 cash, eight and

392
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:26,720
a half million shares.
You have to squint your eyes at

393
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,960
the footnotes on page 12 to, to
read that.

394
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,400
But, but that's $7.3 million at
$0.85 a share.

395
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:36,240
That's a, that's an enormous fee
in, in the banking world for,

396
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,280
yeah, for a kind of a
restructure of, of, of hedge

397
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,400
obligations.
Yeah, I think there sure is.

398
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,680
There is a bit of a cost
associated with doing it, plus I

399
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,440
assume a margin on top for for
that, absolutely.

400
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:50,280
It's a.
Giant fair.

401
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,560
Yeah.
I mean, let's talk more about

402
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,960
the the hedge book.
Trevor, I know you, you jumped

403
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,600
into it.
Maybe maybe pull up your notes

404
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,840
on that one.
I did, I did have a good, yeah,

405
00:21:57,840 --> 00:21:59,840
had a look at it.
I mean you can see part of that

406
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,200
restructure involved rolling
some hedges beyond the previous

407
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,280
latest date of that hedge
period.

408
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,400
So you know, March quarter of
2028 now has some hedge dances

409
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,560
which it didn't before.
And while rolling of those

410
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:16,480
hedges alleviates near term kind
of, you know, cash flow and you

411
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,960
can maximize your free cash flow
in the in the in the near term,

412
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,720
it does kick the can down the
road to an extent, right?

413
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,160
And it has to be addressed at a
later date and for a longer

414
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,480
period of time than you'd
previously envisioned.

415
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:32,120
And unfortunately, there are
examples and precedents in gold

416
00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:35,720
miners in our in our state where
if you roll hedges in, you kick

417
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,680
the can down the road, that
liability can, can grow

418
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:41,720
substantially more in value.
If if the gold price kind of

419
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:43,320
goes much, much higher than you
thought.

420
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,320
And all of a sudden, you know,
you thought you'd keep the can

421
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,200
down the road, but it was at a
reasonable gold price.

422
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:49,240
All of a sudden it can look
pretty, pretty daunting, as you

423
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,480
know, depending on what that
gold backdrop looks like.

424
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,200
And yeah, I just, I just think
that's worth, it's worth

425
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,040
considering the implications of
of all of that, despite the the

426
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,960
Macquarie, like, you know, fee
there.

427
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,960
I, I was kind of interested in
plugging in the the hedge book

428
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,520
into an excel workbook and just
having a bit of a play with it.

429
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:12,600
And if you just Chuck in, you
know, spot price right now, if,

430
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:17,560
if 5200 Aussie for a gold price,
then then what they're actually

431
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,640
the value of the out of the
money value of the hedge book,

432
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:21,040
they're actually going to close
out.

433
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,160
Is, is only about, it's like
less than 30% of, of what the,

434
00:23:25,360 --> 00:23:28,280
you know, the total hedge
liability would be if they, if

435
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:29,840
they didn't close that, that,
that amount out.

436
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:34,240
So this raises like 15% dilution
to the equity capital structure.

437
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,840
And you're, and you're making a,
you know, it's a modest dent in

438
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,280
the, in the overall picture of
that hedge liability, which is

439
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,520
subject to getting bigger if
gold brass goes, goes higher as

440
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:43,480
well.
It's still about, you know,

441
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:47,120
$350.00 and 5200 store price
right now that would would still

442
00:23:47,120 --> 00:23:50,800
be there in, in, in hedges which
can and, and there's a, there's

443
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,840
a period there, I think it's the
back end of 2027 where the, the

444
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,080
quantity of hedge dances kind of
shoots quite a bit higher.

445
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,760
So just managing that with your
mind plan and all that sort of

446
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:02,680
stuff is going to be, it's going
to be interesting.

447
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,520
I think they they alleviate the
near term stress with this,

448
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,040
which is good.
They can have some near term

449
00:24:06,120 --> 00:24:08,480
like good cash flow, but I don't
think investors should ignore

450
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,400
what what remains at the at the
end of it, which is is still

451
00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,080
still a substantial edge book.
Yeah, because you say those

452
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,200
those two you're Speaking of, it
looks like like if they have a

453
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:22,120
45,000 oz month or even below
like that's you know half their

454
00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:25,920
production is hedged at what's
that 2900?

455
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,000
Yeah, 2906.
Yeah, so and as you said, Rob,

456
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,240
when the principal starts being
repaid for the debt as well.

457
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:34,960
Exactly.
Yeah, there's that, that 100

458
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,960
million I think is yeah, payable
Cy 27.

459
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,880
So you've got, you've got a a
bit of extra cash flow pressure

460
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,480
that comes in calendar you're
27.

461
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,080
Of course it's not.
It's not today.

462
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:44,760
But it it is.
It is sooner than we all think.

463
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,040
You know, it's like, yeah.
Like probably the the thing

464
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:55,280
that'll help with in, in the in
the shorter term for delivery of

465
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,440
those answers and probably 27 as
well.

466
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,720
This is like a a back end
problem is like because I

467
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:04,520
didn't, it sounds like that
paste plant isn't happening

468
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,600
anymore because I'm talking
about it now.

469
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:09,800
I've searched paste can't find
anything.

470
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,440
So it doesn't, it sounds like
it's just going to be a pillar

471
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,600
operation so that, that, that
will speed up the mining rights

472
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,760
because you're not relying on
paste or everything, but it is

473
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,200
you're affected and we're there.
It was in the study, I think in

474
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:30,800
the study was calculated, I
think 82% recovery of the oil,

475
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,040
which takes into account the
pillars that are being left.

476
00:25:33,360 --> 00:25:35,920
They're obviously looking at
putting a pace, planning to get

477
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:42,120
100% extraction or close to 100%
extraction of the oil without to

478
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,080
which elongates the life of the
assets.

479
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:51,760
So bad news for Quattro because
that's probably looking like 1

480
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:53,520
pace plant that is not being
built.

481
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:57,280
But someone else's problem is
someone else's opportunity.

482
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:58,720
Someone else might might, that
is.

483
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,520
Just like that means you can get
them working on your pace plant

484
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,560
when they would have been
working on this one.

485
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,760
They, they somebody, the pace,
somebody would be on the ground

486
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,960
out there.
Oh look at look at how excited

487
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,840
you 2 are like.
Just excited just thinking about

488
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,280
it.
Just going at it, but you would

489
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,880
have been excited if you'd come
and seen the QD too underground

490
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:21,920
operators.
But have a look at it.

491
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,760
The Quattro diverter version
3.9.

492
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,080
Unbelievable.
Like this thing just I had lunch

493
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:33,080
next to it each day that I was
at the conference at lunch.

494
00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:37,120
Might have flipped on the night
shift from bloody Wednesday

495
00:26:37,120 --> 00:26:40,120
onwards.
But mate, these these diverter

496
00:26:40,120 --> 00:26:43,440
valves, they've just got even
better. 50% increase in the

497
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:48,720
pressure rating like 15 MPA
pressure rating right now on

498
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,520
those things, buddy, like man
manless hanging system to put

499
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,920
these things up so manless
manless like you're just same as

500
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,000
the fan hanging system that
they've got like just Chuck it

501
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,160
up there, keep everyone safe,
right?

502
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,720
The automation that goes in with
these QD twos.

503
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,800
So if there's a bloody
pressurized detected in the

504
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:12,280
retic line, the system will
automatically flick it over to

505
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,800
the dump line, which will drop
it in a sump, protect your ray

506
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,920
tick and you don't block the
whole line.

507
00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:22,120
All because of Jeremy Palmer.
That is, that is amazing pace.

508
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,800
So if you want to protect your
ray tick line, go buy a shit

509
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,400
load of QD twos or QD fours with
the increased pressure rating

510
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,840
and just keep your ray tick line
safe.

511
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,720
It's just a beautiful pace of
engineering by Quattro.

512
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:40,280
And thanks for the lunch table.
Pay for itself?

513
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:41,120
Go.
Contracts.

514
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:46,600
Anyway, now the strategic
review, it's do you.

515
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,040
Sometimes you'll want to hear
it.

516
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,360
A lot of times you don't want to
hear it.

517
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,480
Yeah, it's usually kind of the I
reckon you're.

518
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,440
Wanting it right?
I reckon you'll want to hear it.

519
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,600
Yeah, when when a company with
multiple assets says for

520
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,720
strategic review, it's not
normally a a great sign, but

521
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,680
there's a bit of nuance to it in
in this case.

522
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,880
So they flag looking at internal
and external options and then

523
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,240
they sort of mentioned control
changes.

524
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,160
So a direct snippet was that
Bellevue's confirmed it has

525
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,160
recently received unsolicited
approaches relating to a

526
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:25,000
potential control transaction.
So they say no formal proposals

527
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,600
or offers were received.
Of course, that's, that's not a

528
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:30,600
big surprise, but people are,
people are having a bit of a

529
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,240
peek.
They're looking around, they're

530
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,680
seeing what they can sort of do
with management, where they can

531
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,240
kind of get to.
And it was interesting to hear

532
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,000
the question asked, like how
many of these, you know, if you

533
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:44,360
can put a number to it or if any
of them came in the last two?

534
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:45,680
Weeks.
Can I, can I play that question

535
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,280
on the call?
I'll play, I'll play, play it.

536
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,760
But but before you do, you
should have seen how many

537
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:53,320
unsolicited approaches I've seen
between mining companies late at

538
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:57,640
night at underground operators.
That's right, it's so good.

539
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,480
Oh, what a place to be, right in
the heart of it.

540
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,880
Where business gets done.
Hey, Maddie, All righty.

541
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,080
On the the question was asked
previously and I won't draw you

542
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,560
on more detail around the
approaches from third parties

543
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,120
other than to ask about timing
when they might have been.

544
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,080
And the question for that is,
I'm curious to know whether a

545
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,600
third party is approached during
the last two weeks, you know,

546
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,640
in, in opportunistically in
what's potentially a position of

547
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,640
weakness or whether there were
there have potentially been

548
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,400
approaches prior to this, I
guess the last couple of weeks

549
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:34,280
of, of uncertainty.
Yeah, Look, I, I think we've

550
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:39,160
said what we wanted to say in
the statement that's in the the

551
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,560
announcements, Paul.
So I think we'll just decline to

552
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,160
comment.
It's no upside in discussing M&A

553
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,480
and, and speculation on that
front.

554
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,120
So we've said what we want to
say on it.

555
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,920
And if there's, you know, room
for a future update, we'll

556
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,400
provide it to the market.
As appropriate.

557
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,640
Got interesting, right?
That's a lot the anti magnetic

558
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,200
response.
What was the bloody some?

559
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,200
Runs in the data room, some runs
in it.

560
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,040
Was someone doing their washing
up while they were answering

561
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,000
that question?
No.

562
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,760
It was 'cause I was, I was
recording, oh, speaker into a

563
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,840
microphone and tapping, tapping
the desk.

564
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,440
Yeah, but not.
Not gonna lie, I did, I did have

565
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,200
it on like 100 trying to just, I
can put my ear to it to, to

566
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:18,960
listen to it.
But it's interesting 'cause we

567
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,680
all, we all got kind of
attracted to the same snippet.

568
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:23,720
Really, really interesting to
see.

569
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:27,280
I I found, I found it
interesting because, yeah,

570
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:31,240
because not like, like Strallow
responded by knocking back the,

571
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,000
the, the, the question.
But here's, here's one view on

572
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,680
the response to that question.
If there was an inbound NBIO

573
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,360
before the trading halt, for
example, that's that's worth a

574
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,480
bit more then after the trading
halt, in my opinion, it's, it's

575
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,240
a letter that possibly is
anchored to a price that's sort

576
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,480
of much higher than the cap
raise and higher than it was

577
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,600
when it went into went into halt
and all that sort of stuff.

578
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,080
But if the interest has only
come after the trading halt,

579
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,720
it's not as promising.
You know, lots of miners would

580
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,120
be a bit opportunistic when
you're you're in a three-week,

581
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,800
you know, suspension and and
yet, of course you're pinging

582
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,480
out a letter depend.
You don't know how dire it is,

583
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,920
but you ask for access to a data
room and you know, give me, give

584
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,880
me DDD and maybe I can, you
know, give you a proposal and

585
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:10,960
firm it up and all that sort of
stuff.

586
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,520
So I wouldn't be surprised to
see a lot of people kind of

587
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,600
opportunistic in that situation.
But if, but it's a different,

588
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,840
it's a different level of
firmness and, and, and, and

589
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,960
seriousness.
If, if it came before versus

590
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,600
after.
And what if it was if it if they

591
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,600
came before the trading halt?
And what would have prevented

592
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,480
Darren Stralow from just just
saying no, we had some before.

593
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,000
So maybe, maybe the inference
you could have is they could

594
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,920
have all come after.
Yeah, yeah.

595
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,520
And lying, to my knowledge, I
don't think any strategics are

596
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:45,000
being let into this cap raise
either to try and get a foot on

597
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:48,520
it either because competitive
tension is their best friend at

598
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:49,560
the moment.
Totally.

599
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,840
And for this.
And this, this signalling to the

600
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,080
to the to the market that they
are exploring the options to

601
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,680
maximise value, right?
They list 3 advisors that

602
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:59,240
they've now got in their court
to, to, to help them maximize

603
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,200
values at the inferences, you
know, at at the right price that

604
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:04,880
they are, they would consider,
you know, the a corporate change

605
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,160
of control.
It just how real the interest is

606
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,240
from third parties, I think
remains to be seen still.

607
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,680
And yeah, I like, I do wonder
what, what price they would have

608
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,120
to raise if they didn't reveal
that, that they had corporate

609
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:18,800
interest.
But I'm very curious to know

610
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,360
what you guys think of in terms
of what the potential corporate

611
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,440
interest is.
Who, who would be interested in

612
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:28,520
and yeah, who like who, who come
who you know, do you think, do

613
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:31,880
you think Bellevue will, will,
will kind of get engulfed by a

614
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,280
larger, larger minor with the,
the the more thorough balance

615
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,560
sheet to, to absorb some of
their funding stuff?

616
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,480
Interesting.
What you say is like, will there

617
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:44,800
be like with, you know, the mark
to mark on the hedge book and

618
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,640
everything like will it be
competitive or like will it be a

619
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,960
larger minor or will it be a
smaller minor that might be able

620
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,160
to take a swing of this mate
like between?

621
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,600
It caps could, yeah.
Yeah, like between and some of

622
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,160
them aren't that small like like
catalysts, like on the smaller

623
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,960
end, like.
Yeah, Mark, it'd be.

624
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,240
A huge, huge, but that's the
thing, like if there's not heaps

625
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,120
of interest, like might provide
a opportunity for them like, but

626
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,280
then and then you got all the,
you know, outrageous.

627
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:16,560
You know, they haven't got
really the geographical

628
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,280
synergies, but they're, you
know.

629
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:19,560
If they're if they're looking
at.

630
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,000
Printing a bit of cash they're.
Looking at Ravenswood, which,

631
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:27,280
which has a lower production
profile, it has a worse hedge

632
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,800
book, a worse debt, debt
situation and even and more

633
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,560
operational kind of, you know,
question marks over it and, and

634
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,120
that and Ravenswood wants 2
billion.

635
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:36,360
Yeah.
Like if you're Regis, you're

636
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,880
thinking I could spend, I could
pay less than that and close out

637
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:41,480
all the hedges and yada, yada,
and have this thing.

638
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:45,280
So I, I think like if you were
to look at the two options side

639
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,920
by side, you go Bellevue.
But so I wouldn't rule.

640
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,200
I wouldn't rule Regis out at
all.

641
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,160
No, no.
Before I go on the other ones,

642
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,040
when you reference 2 billion
like so after this there's going

643
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:55,800
to be 1 1/2 billion shares on
issue.

644
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:03,320
So that means I if it got done
at a dollar, $1.30 would mean

645
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,400
essentially $2 billion plus the
hedge book and the debt out of

646
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,480
the money.
So it's about a $2.4 billion

647
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:14,679
deal equivalent to Spartan for a
a walk up start to potentially

648
00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:20,000
190,000 oz or 150 to 190,000
ounces for a 3,000,000 oz

649
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:23,639
resource.
So that's the price like could

650
00:34:23,639 --> 00:34:27,920
it get done at $1.10, which
would be a bit below the two

651
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,600
like about 2 billion once you
clear everything out.

652
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,600
So that's the sort of share
process you're looking at for

653
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,360
what you know, potentially a
deal could be done depending on

654
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,280
where it trades on open
tomorrow.

655
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,639
But we've, we've went, went
through the previous ones as

656
00:34:41,639 --> 00:34:44,840
well, like gold fields could
flick it over to Agnew.

657
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:50,639
I think, I think it's only a 1.1
million tonne mill.

658
00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:53,560
I'm not sure if it's expanded,
but I'll assume that it's

659
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,000
bigger.
It must be bigger.

660
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,480
The with the yeah, chat check
definitely be down the other

661
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,560
way.
It must be bigger.

662
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,560
Like the, the big ones are
obviously vault with they're

663
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:06,160
expanding to 6,000,000 tonne and
they've just, I think approved

664
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,880
the $80 million expansion to put
the regrant the ball mill in for

665
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,080
that.
Because it's just, I think it's

666
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,800
just one big sag at the moment.
So that could take it.

667
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,640
But they've obviously got their
own hedge book to deal with.

668
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,880
But you know, you'd think that
just cleared this out anyway, or

669
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,880
they might just keep it there.
They love keeping cash.

670
00:35:24,240 --> 00:35:28,240
Thunderbox, Northern Star.
That's a very logical one.

671
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,960
And the degrade deal's about to
be signed off on anyway.

672
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,400
My my two things.
Very is imminent.

673
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:38,080
Yeah.
And I did have a look through

674
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,880
that and it looked like Northern
Star could they could do

675
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,880
anything.
It was degrade that couldn't do

676
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,960
a deal.
There there was a materiality

677
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,760
threshold and it was basically I
think, I think the threshold was

678
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,560
like anything more than a
billion dollars would it would

679
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:57,640
be yeah, like like game to to
to, to, to material to to do

680
00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:00,280
another deal it.
Could degrade approve it but.

681
00:36:00,720 --> 00:36:02,280
It wasn't even a consent thing.
It got messy.

682
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:03,960
It got messy on that front.
Yeah, yeah.

683
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:06,040
I did.
I did some control I.

684
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,920
Think, yeah.
But the I mean like it's kind of

685
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,640
irrelevant because the deal is
going to complete soon anyway.

686
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,520
I do think, I do think that it's
hard to pay more than the

687
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,560
companies that have synergies.
So the synergies are Gold Fields

688
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,480
and and Northern Star and you
might think synergies.

689
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:20,760
Is weird.
Vault and are.

690
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:25,200
A good time, yeah, yeah, less
balance sheet to, to maybe you

691
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:26,880
know, splurge with, but
certainly synergies.

692
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:31,280
And then because the synergies
exist because you've got high

693
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,200
grade stuff that you're
processing costs much lower than

694
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,160
putting it through the, you
know, 1.2 or whatever million

695
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:37,600
tonne per random plant that
Bellevue has.

696
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,040
If you're, if you're sending it
to your much larger economies of

697
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,920
scale mill that you've got, you
know, 50-60 KS down the road.

698
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,480
Yeah, and they could go.
They could probably bloody with

699
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,280
other stuff in the region.
They could turn that into a toll

700
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:50,600
trading mill up there.
You could sell it to someone.

701
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,960
Vivian comes back online ever.
Like there's plenty of plenty of

702
00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:57,920
options, but yeah, they're the
lot.

703
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:03,480
I don't, I don't think Genesis,
geez, you never know.

704
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:08,080
But like, considering what they
paid $140 million for Daisy and

705
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:14,360
to set up that whole area up,
doesn't strike me as a company

706
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,080
that'll be paying 2 billion for
something like this.

707
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:18,400
I think they're kind of
cyclical.

708
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:24,520
Investing is complete Evo's.
Are they in harvest mode?

709
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:26,800
I'm pretty sure I don't think I.
Don't think they will.

710
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,680
I don't think they'd go at it.
Not their MO isn't.

711
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:34,440
It Nah, Nah.
So like yeah, for Northern Star

712
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,320
lot, they'd probably be able to
get it all script.

713
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,400
They they, yeah, yeah, they
could they.

714
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:45,280
Probably.
I think they'd if they were to

715
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:46,680
do it, I think it'd be script,
right?

716
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:48,800
Yeah, similar to what they did
with.

717
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:53,680
Pretty, and it's a pretty safe
bet to take the script.

718
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:57,320
You'd think liquid.
Very, very potential.

719
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:01,640
There's certain people that'll
be, you know, still at these

720
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:06,760
prices having a bit of a win.
So cash might lead to a tax

721
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,480
liability.
You can potentially get rolled

722
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,640
if you're still bullish.
The broader gold narrative, you

723
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,040
know, rollover relief, if it's,
if it's script, I mean on the

724
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,720
margins that that ties into it.
Yeah, I think that's pretty much

725
00:38:18,720 --> 00:38:20,360
everyone.
I think lower than.

726
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:21,760
One, yeah, I agree with you on
Genesis.

727
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,360
Yeah, yeah, by the way, I think
I think if a deal happens, I

728
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,040
think it's going to be lower
than 130.

729
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,880
That's why like just got
intuition on sort of how, yeah,

730
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,400
I do think there is there are
definitely some like kind of

731
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,520
like I use the word desperate
mid caps who need need to do a

732
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,440
deal and a hungry and yadda,
yadda, yadda.

733
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,160
And and there's a very realistic
chance that something happens

734
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,120
with that the cohort, you know,
but the but the price matters.

735
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:46,200
You know, how much you pay does
matter.

736
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,600
And even though we anchor to the
share price or the share price

737
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,840
has come down so much, so a deal
must be more attractive.

738
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,640
There's a bunch of dilution you
still got to pay more shares to.

739
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,760
So the quantum you're paying can
still be quite onerous even

740
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:57,960
though the share price looks
lower.

741
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,840
So, you know, companies are are
constantly thinking about what

742
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:04,640
the total amount they're paying
is here and, and even though the

743
00:39:04,720 --> 00:39:06,560
the share price has come lower,
it's still it's.

744
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,840
Still a big it's a big price tag
you want to be very confident

745
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,720
that the cash flow is going to
come from from that investment.

746
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:14,640
Would Macquarie have like,
because Macquarie are holding

747
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,120
obviously the debt, but the
bigger quantum is the amount,

748
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,600
the out of the money hedge book
liability.

749
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:25,160
Would they have a say at all on
offers?

750
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,080
Because you know, it's it might
be in their best interest that a

751
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,840
$1.10 deal gets done to take
away the risk from them to

752
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,960
potentially not getting that
gold in the future is a risk to

753
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:37,720
them.
They wouldn't have a say on on

754
00:39:37,720 --> 00:39:40,800
offers.
They do like any deal it'd be

755
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:43,840
it'd be subject to, you know,
certain consents per whatever

756
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,440
contracts you have in place for
for a project finance, it depend

757
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,240
what the buyer wants to do.
Do they want to clean out the

758
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,800
the hedge book on the
acquisition or are they keeping

759
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,200
it in place?
Either one does does need a

760
00:39:55,240 --> 00:39:57,040
certain consent.
But it's it's, you know, it's

761
00:39:57,320 --> 00:39:59,760
assigning rights to a larger
than a minor or something, you

762
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:01,120
know, aquarium and say yes to
every day of the week.

763
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:01,720
And they're not.
Yeah.

764
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:03,440
Yeah.
And and it looks like they're,

765
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:07,400
they're obviously they've
signalled that they are very

766
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:09,920
amenable to selling it.
I think that's pretty clear.

767
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,120
Like which is positive if if if
true.

768
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,960
And good from inquiry.
What about the oh so and it was

769
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:20,120
a good question on the investor
call and it was probably the

770
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,840
thoughts are why have they
cleared the hedge book, cleared

771
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:27,920
150 a hundred odd out of the
hedge book and left the debt,

772
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,600
which would have you done?
Because the question on the call

773
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,640
was why?
Why didn't you clear out the

774
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,920
debt?
Because then you don't have, you

775
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,760
know, Macquarie doesn't have
security on the assets.

776
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:48,480
And Darren responded saying,
look, that's because we've still

777
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,640
got the marked mark on the on
the hedge book.

778
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:53,720
They still, which is what did
you say it was?

779
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:57,880
After they paid back, they also
left 350 million at 5200 Yeah

780
00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:00,400
prices.
Which means they've still got

781
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,680
security on the asset.
So look, because I have, I told

782
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:07,080
just me what the analogy for
hedging that I've known for ages

783
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,080
tell me.
I've known this for ages.

784
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,560
I can't believe I haven't
mentioned it yet. 100% have not

785
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,440
talked to.
So like I enlighten us, these

786
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:21,400
Ford contracts are the dead set
equivalent of short selling

787
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,880
effectively.
So Macquarie are short selling

788
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,480
gold and to Bellevue for these
contracts.

789
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,800
So all, all that hedge book
that's in place, Macquarie have

790
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:37,480
borrowed it from Central bank or
bloody friggin Fort Knox or, or

791
00:41:37,480 --> 00:41:40,960
somewhere, borrowed it, sold it
into the spot market, got a heap

792
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,320
of cash for it, put that on
deposit, which is earning

793
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,680
interest.
And then those contracts are

794
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:51,160
what Bellevue has to the gold
that has to be given back to

795
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:53,600
Macquarie so they can give it
back to the bank.

796
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:57,600
So when they say like they're
obviously not making money on

797
00:41:57,880 --> 00:42:00,920
the gold price, but it's like
when that is why they've got

798
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:05,480
security on the asset because if
you know, very obviously like if

799
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:09,960
Bellevue stops producing,
Macquarie have to go into the

800
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,240
market and buy all that gold
themselves.

801
00:42:12,240 --> 00:42:14,000
That's on the asset side of
their Ledger.

802
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,760
On the liability side is their
obligation to return the gold at

803
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:21,760
those predefined points in time
which they require Bellevue to

804
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:23,760
deliver.
Yeah, those obligations.

805
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:28,280
And hence the decision for
because clear in the debt is

806
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,920
like whatever you've cleared the
debt, the debt isn't going to

807
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,640
grow that much.
But as you said before, that

808
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,200
hedge book liability, if the
gold price keeps going up could

809
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,840
keep growing and growing and
growing.

810
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,560
Hence, keeping the debt,
removing the hedge liability for

811
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,440
this year, for the remainder of
this year means they've got more

812
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:52,360
of a runway to get free cash,
keep the operation sustainable,

813
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:54,320
deliver the gold into the hedge
book.

814
00:42:54,320 --> 00:43:00,680
Less risk of the worst thing
happening of going into VI or

815
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,640
like going into receivership or
something where Macquarie have

816
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:07,960
to go into the market, use the
security of the asset to buy all

817
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:09,920
that gold back to give it to the
central bank.

818
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:12,680
So that's why they've done it.
Yeah.

819
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:14,240
And I think.
All my own idea.

820
00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:17,520
We talk about, we talk about
hedges, right heaps, but the

821
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:21,120
gold price going up is still
good for for Bellevue it's still

822
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,160
much more if they can obviously
deliver the answers it's.

823
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:25,080
Great.
If they can.

824
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,560
Yeah, yeah.
Deliver the answers.

825
00:43:27,720 --> 00:43:31,640
But it obviously increases the
risk to Macquarie if they don't

826
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:33,400
deliver the answers Exactly,
exactly.

827
00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:36,120
For sure, for sure.
Now I like that, Maddie.

828
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,840
Yeah, no worries.
I'm here all week boys, buddy.

829
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:43,080
Just a wealth of knowledge.
Yeah.

830
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,280
I've been, I've been bloody
years in everyone else's ideas

831
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,240
for the last two years.
I'm not going to stop now.

832
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,000
Quickest way to learn mate, to
to frame your question as well,

833
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,320
but going roughly a year back or
I guess nine months or so back

834
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,000
to when they did the last raise
and they they cleared out debt,

835
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,520
they would have had to be paying
on average 15,000,000 bucks a

836
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,680
quarter.
You know, they paid out $100

837
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,760
million of the 200 million in
debt.

838
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,040
So that kind of would have,
would have stung them a bit at

839
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,120
the time.
They had the same decision last

840
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,760
year and they went the debt
route.

841
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,080
Well, I suppose it's been a
perfect storm, hasn't it?

842
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:24,000
So when not an unperfect storm
from when they've when they took

843
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,680
that debt to OK, we're going to
go down the debt route, we're

844
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,000
going to have the least amount
of dilution.

845
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,320
We're going to get a great
earnings per share.

846
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,720
We're going to have a bloody
this great rated company on an

847
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:41,920
EBITDA multiple gold was, you
know, those $2800 hedges, they

848
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,320
were above the gold price at
that time.

849
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:47,440
So everyone just forgets.
It's like, oh shit, why'd you

850
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,240
hedge at that price?
That's what the bloody gold

851
00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:51,840
price was.
It was bloody lower and it was

852
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,920
in a lower interest rate
environment, which mean

853
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,920
obviously the hedges were at not
as much of A markup to the spot

854
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:03,840
price because because they hold
the money on on account, higher

855
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,480
interest rates means they could
give higher Ford contract

856
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,640
prices.
But now gold prices going up

857
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:13,280
shit loads and interest rates
have gone up shit loads, which

858
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,600
means it's more impactful on the
debt as well.

859
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:19,440
So it's just really snowballed
into what we see today,

860
00:45:19,720 --> 00:45:22,920
unfortunately for them.
Yeah, it's fascinating to think

861
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:26,600
that the the, the, the hedge
liability that will even be

862
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,800
remaining after this is, is, you
know, multiples of what the

863
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,720
initial project finance facility
was like.

864
00:45:31,720 --> 00:45:34,000
Yeah, it's remarkable how that
all that kind of works.

865
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:35,840
Yeah.
And that's the, well, that's

866
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:40,480
the, the unfortunate thing like
because this could have been as

867
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,800
we're like we're talking about
it getting sold at $1.10 dollar

868
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:48,440
30 or or whatever.
Like, but like it's just, yeah,

869
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:52,640
it's just, it's unfortunate to
see if like if they did execute,

870
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:56,200
did buy off the debt without
rising like delivered into that

871
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:59,400
hedge book over a longer term.
Like this could have been a

872
00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:02,120
freaking cute.
Like this could have been a

873
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:06,200
three $4.00 stock with that
management like a management

874
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,440
premium and delivery and
everything.

875
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:10,880
It just unfortunately didn't
happen.

876
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:17,120
So I can really go either way.
Like so, yeah, I'm sure the

877
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:18,720
shareholders were wishing that
too.

878
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,600
For sure, we'll see what the
future holds for the the new

879
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,800
shareholders sort of be
interesting with those sort of

880
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,800
carrots they've dangled.
So do you reckon this is the

881
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,400
final reset?
This is this is the biggest

882
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:38,840
reset?
Well, no, I hope so.

883
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:42,680
No, sorry, I don't think it is
because this is the reset that

884
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:46,840
should have happened when they
raised last year instead of

885
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,800
releasing that 250,000 oz plan.
This should have been it should

886
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:51,880
have.
This should have happened at

887
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,640
diggers before diggers.
Like when they said that we're

888
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,480
just revising.
It's going to be 190,000 oz

889
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,720
mine.
It's not a 200,000 oz mine.

890
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,080
It's 150 next year.
Like this is what should have

891
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,360
happened then.
So it's but it's a bigger reset

892
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,560
compared to what they said they
were going to do, which was much

893
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,280
higher.
But is it the final one still 40

894
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,960
what, 47 1/2 thousand ounces a
year?

895
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:21,040
1/4 from FY20 7 onwards.
It's tricky.

896
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,360
It's tricky to have confidence
and say yes, because you do want

897
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,880
to believe like the the
revisions every time, but then

898
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:30,720
you like there are there seems
to be just, you know, misses

899
00:47:30,720 --> 00:47:32,680
that that weren't foreseen and
things like that.

900
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:36,000
So you want you want to you want
to think the operational kind of

901
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:38,840
question marks are are in the
background now.

902
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,680
You really do want to believe
that I'm, I think like because

903
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:44,080
of that they've alleviated the
short term.

904
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:46,080
The short term looks, looks
reasonable.

905
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:49,880
You know, like I do worry a
little bit about that 2027

906
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,360
period when you've got more
hedging and and the debt

907
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,120
repayments kind of kick in.
I think it all depends.

908
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:59,120
I think it depends if Bellevue
kind of keep persisting on on

909
00:47:59,120 --> 00:48:01,160
their own or if, or if they get
taken over.

910
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:02,440
If they get taken over, it's the
last reset.

911
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:05,360
If they assist on their own,
there might be some some some

912
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:09,000
some more kind of things to face
as the the cash flow looks

913
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:11,480
compressed in that year.
And when if they get taken over,

914
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,320
no one's looking at it as much.
Exactly.

915
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,120
It's mixed in with seven other
fucking assets.

916
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,840
It's all, yeah, it's all good
sticking along.

917
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,560
But I I like how it's 150 next
year.

918
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,960
Like that's that indicates to
me, right?

919
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,760
They're probably going to know
they're dropping a jumbo off and

920
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:33,200
everything, but it's like
hopefully they get a bit ahead.

921
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,240
Sounds like a lot of the
critical infrastructure is

922
00:48:35,240 --> 00:48:41,360
probably in just cut it comes.
It's going to come down to like

923
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,640
obviously they they've alluded
to the mining practices.

924
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,840
Once they tidy that up, then
it's up to the ore body.

925
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:50,920
It's got to be up to how that
ore body behaves.

926
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,920
If like the if there's many
irregularities, like as long as

927
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,720
your body stay on the ore top
level, top level and bottom

928
00:48:58,720 --> 00:49:01,440
level, what happens in the
middle is out of your control.

929
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:06,080
So as long as all that is done
spot on and slowed down, which

930
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:09,080
sounds like they're gonna like
it's up to the gold gods.

931
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:15,280
Then sounds like they've got the
process and plant sort of the

932
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:18,520
upgrades and everything like the
oxygen circuit that they talked

933
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:22,000
about a lot that talks about the
increased sulfides and the need

934
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:26,160
for the oxygen circuit to
alleviate the higher use of

935
00:49:26,240 --> 00:49:30,480
cyanide, which is copper.
They don't say copper, they say

936
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,440
sulfides, but it is because of
copper in the sulfides it

937
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:34,800
caused.
So that's what the oxygen

938
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:36,720
circuits trying to.
So it sounds like they've

939
00:49:36,720 --> 00:49:40,000
gotten, it's manageable.
The recoveries are going to be

940
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:44,400
hopefully maintained it a lot
higher and then the recovery

941
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,320
issues before a lot of it was
because of this fucking rush,

942
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:49,760
rush, rush trying to get the
quarterly numbers out, throwing

943
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:54,400
a shit load of in cases,
throwing a shit load high grade

944
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,720
in at once.
And then you you know, you're

945
00:49:56,720 --> 00:49:58,960
pissing a lot out to the
tailings because you're trying

946
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:07,600
to get the gold quickly.
So yeah, I, yeah, I reckon I

947
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:11,240
don't know, I'm saying 180,000
sustainably.

948
00:50:14,240 --> 00:50:15,720
Seems like a good spot to leave
it.

949
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,600
Nothing like.
That, yeah, I think, I think

950
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:20,080
we'll, we'll see how they go
against that.

951
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:25,040
Who do you reckon is going to
come with it, themselves or

952
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:27,160
which other?
Come on, we're going to come on

953
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:28,360
years.
We've got to start throwing some

954
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:31,720
darts as well, boys.
I.

955
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:33,440
Who's going to be the final
buyer?

956
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,320
Who's going to be running
Bellevue in FY20 7?

957
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:40,680
Northern Star.
That's a good one.

958
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:44,240
Is it cheating if I say the
same?

959
00:50:44,240 --> 00:50:49,360
Do I have to go different?
Northern Star seems the most

960
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,600
logical.
Oh, Chuck in Goldfield's just to

961
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:57,120
just to spice it up, but I think
that's a rough probability.

962
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:01,400
But Ruffy would be Regis.
I'm gonna arcane I'm.

963
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,760
Gonna throw.
That's the hardest thing though.

964
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:10,080
Like the reason I'm going
against vault is the whole

965
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:13,120
succession plan of that business
probably relying on maybe

966
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:18,960
Genesis, which take over from
Luke Tonkin, unless Luke has a

967
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:25,080
swing at this and then maybe
makes himself more amenable to

968
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:30,120
Genesis or they he might he
might just go forever.

969
00:51:30,720 --> 00:51:35,720
I think vaults the dark horse on
this and make a lot of sense for

970
00:51:35,720 --> 00:51:39,520
that to go down to their mill.
I didn't need some upgrades and

971
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:40,680
everything.
I don't know if it's got an

972
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:46,120
oxygen circuit or Yeah Vault,
but I reckon Northern stuff all

973
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,800
righty.
All righty, let's thank our

974
00:51:51,800 --> 00:51:55,000
awesome partners, I reckon.
Get your tickets.

975
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:56,480
Remilius hasn't even got a
mention.

976
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,760
Yeah, they got a great project
they've.

977
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:01,800
Got their hands full.
God that could be a real dark

978
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,400
horse.
Righto.

979
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,360
Let's take the partners.
What mate?

980
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,800
Bloody the all underground
operators is finished.

981
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:14,600
GRX conference is coming up.
Brisbane May 20 to 22nd.

982
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:17,280
Oh God, I should be recovered by
then.

983
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,720
Can't wait.
The centre of tech and

984
00:52:19,720 --> 00:52:24,200
innovation discount code on
LinkedIn on in the show notes.

985
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:27,680
Make sure you grab on it.
There are other partners I

986
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:29,760
haven't said these guys for a
week of being devoured.

987
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,160
Mineral mining services grounded
sandy ground sports ARA

988
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:39,200
insurance K drill WA waterboards
quattro kci black diamond

989
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:42,640
drilling services cross boundary
energy O doro boys O doro.

990
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:45,920
The information contained in
this episode of Money of Mine is

991
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,120
of general nature only and does
not take into account the

992
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:51,720
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

993
00:52:51,720 --> 00:52:53,760
person.
Before making any investment

994
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,840
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

995
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,960
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

996
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,160
financial situation and needs.