Is this the Death of Gold Developers?

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Friday, Buddy Borders.
G'day, Maddie.

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Gidday.
Track LGC.

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Hey, thanks for joining us.
You know what?

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You know what LGC and Axis
mining technology have in

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common.
Both legends.

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They both just fucking work.
That is all you need tonight.

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All you need to know.
We trust Ally TGC is our one and

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only ever employee and you
should trust Access is the only

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people for AJ I or an Ori. 100%
love it.

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What do we got today, Maddie?
Oht mate, what?

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Jay, say you've pumped out a
bloody bit of a cameo

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appearance.
Of a cameo today.

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The death of Gult developers.
Could be morbid, but whoa seems

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to be the case.
Yeah, yeah, buddy.

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We're a bit late on meteoric at
their scope and study out

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yesterday.
So we're going to do a I'll

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figure it out.
I know nothing about rare earths

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and I'll still don't.
Dunning Kruger effect comes to

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mind, Mattie.
I'm going to be hung out to dry

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based on the little info I'll
give, but whatever.

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Highly recommend.
Listen to Mike Bevins one when

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it comes out instead of mine.
Better China you What do you

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got?
A bit of silly.

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Yeah deals falling apart at the
at the final hurdle so gonna

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gonna get into that one they.
Can't catch a break Silver court

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mate.
Fuck no, of course through the

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fingers down is.
There are a couple parallels

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with the the All Corp saga which
we'll get into.

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I'll be getting some emails
after that one, probably travel.

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What have you got?
Yeah, you've come up with a

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little bloody special.
Well, I just, I just gotta say

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what I'm looking out for in
quarterly season ahead other

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than waterfall charts, but just
just around the grounds, what

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are the, what are the big things
to keep an eye?

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On Yeah, very good right eye.
Ali JC Employee of the Week and

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Employee of the Month.
One of one.

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Or we're gonna put you up as
employee of the week every.

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Week.
I love that forever.

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LinkedIn marketing, What's going
on?

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The death of WI gold developers.
So whoa.

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Whoa.
So it's a bit of an omage to my

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my maiden episode on money of
mine.

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And I thought I'd bet good time
to do a bit of a welfare cheque

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on our and it welfare cheque
probably is the right word to

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use on our gold explorer and
developer friends.

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And I'll start the segment.
Ding, Ding, Ding.

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I do own a few few of these
players which we'll discuss

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today.
Degrey, Osgood and Orogold.

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Get that out of the.
Way, Speaking of welfare

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cheques, just checking, yeah.
Do you feel included here?

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I feel very included, Maddie.
Thanks.

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Just all good.
Love and life.

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I reckon you probably could end
up mentioning Spartan 2, which

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daddy owns.
And yes, we.

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Do Ding Ding for that one as
well, beauty.

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So a lot of people thought this
year would be the year of the

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gold developer or the gold
explorers, given the the pretty

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big gold price run in the last
12 months.

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And it's actually been quite the
opposite.

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And the value gap between
producers and developers and

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explorers has just kept
widening.

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A few things come to mind there.
One is Menjadi interviewed vast

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of of Collin Street and they've
notably Yeah, I think they even

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started Buddy, another special
purpose fund to buy a bunch of.

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These Special Situations fund
Vast comes to mind, like you've

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said, as well as Hedley and Line
Selection Lot, there's a couple

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of groups.
Yeah.

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Just busy in that, you know,
developer sort of projects below

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the threshold and not getting
much love.

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Yeah, we even just saw line go
19 percent on Saturn, the heat

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bleach jobby.
So yeah, she's all gut.

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All guy.
So what's happened since a year

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ago?
So pretty much all explorers and

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developers other than Spartan
continue to be extraordinarily

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cheap.
So if we look at the relative

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share price graph here, I've
popped in about 20 different WA

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Advanced explorer, gold explorer
developers in there and on

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average there are 12% down gold.
US gold price is up 23% in the

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same period.
So that blue one is.

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Spartan.
Spartan, obviously US.

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I've excluded Spartan from that
every.

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Goes up 23% think I au.
Dollars and then.

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That's even more, you know.
So that's actually index.

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There you go, rather than.
To be to be clear, ally you,

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you're specifically circling
projects in WA.

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Yeah, that's right.
And so if we look at the flip

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side at gold producer equities
have been performing and again

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these are predominantly W Aussie
based producers being performing

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amazingly well up on average 35%
and also outpacing the the the

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US gold price at least.
So the value gap between

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explorers and developers in WA
versus producers is almost 50%

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in the last year.
Yeah, that, that, that outlier

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in the equities is very
interesting.

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It is.
Or a bander talk.

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They haven't really made money
yet properly.

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Wow, Orlando is that red 5 He's.
Red fire red fives up there too.

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There, there, there, starting to
hit the straps, but yeah, there

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are a band is an interesting
one.

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Yeah, that's right.
So why, why is this the case?

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So for a lot of these N.W.A gold
explorers and developers, having

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a look through a few of them,
there hasn't been many material

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steps forward or progress with
their, with their assets since

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12 months ago.
And even with the ones that have

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taken some sort of, you know,
step forward or grown their

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asset base or further de risk
their project since a year ago,

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that this is absolutely not
reflected in the share price

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whatsoever.
And for a lot of these

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companies, their cash balances
are dwindling.

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So from an investor perspective,
it's like what's the incentive

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to own these companies now and
fund them now when they're

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probably gonna be cheaper and
more deed risked in six, 1218

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months time, which then creates
a problem for these companies to

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get funding and further progress
these assets and then this

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vicious cycle just keeps
continuing.

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Because it's not as you said,
there's no indication they're

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gonna start mining soon cause
nothing started mining.

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No really on that smaller end
there's been a lot sitting there

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with like brownfields projects
that could have started mining.

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But besides, yeah, some very
small snatch and grabs.

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Here.
And there with a small market

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cap, it's hard to fund these
things into production as well.

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And then you've got like the the
the vicious cycle of of having

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to raise equity and dilute more
and all that sort of stuff and

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the corporate seat are really
yet to be acquisitive in the

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space.
And that's kind of sometimes

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what kicks off the the rewrite
of the the junior end.

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But yeah, hasn't we?
Haven't really seen it.

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No.
And I mean, just to your point

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earlier, like there hasn't been
many feasibility studies

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released this year and there's
even a shorter list of of that

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list that were even mildly
compelling or getting people's

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attention.
And I mean, I mean we've spoken

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about in the show pretty
regularly that probably a lot of

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these have you know, likely
undercooked their CapEx

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estimates too.
You know, to graze an example

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which is spoken about the show
magnetic is another $193,000,000

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CapEx for this is for everything
including a 1.8 million tonne

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per annum processing plant and I
and figure out the rest as well.

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I just don't know how that
works.

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But anyway.
Just put put a zero on it

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because you know, you don't have
to even build a plant there.

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Just send it to a different
plant nearby.

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Easy.
Do you guys, if it's if you make

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the CapEx too or you won't get
funded, gets it a bit lower so

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you get funded then you can?
Raise, then you're fine.

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Later on.
And then I made people obviously

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still very scarred from that era
of single asset gold.

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Deville is going into production
and then, you know, having to do

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multiple save raises or in the
recent case of Calidis actually,

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you know, going under.
And people are just generally

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steering a bit clearer or or at
least sceptical and was saying

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in the producers, there's so
much value being attributed to

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economic Oz that are producing
cash or in the case of say, some

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of those undeveloped assets, the
ones that have got a very clear

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pathway to making a lot of cash.
And then that pathway is not too

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long either.
And that's getting way more

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value attributed than a resource
Oz, which should just seem to be

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worth, you know, pennies these
days.

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Yeah, one thing I've probably
learned as well is, I mean,

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there's a lot of undeveloped
assets, gold assets here in

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Wawa.
And a lot of them have scale

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over, you know, a million oz.
But just because they're over

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1,000,000 oz or a few million oz
doesn't actually mean they're

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good.
All that really matters is you

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can make money from them and
quickly.

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Doesn't matter really how big it
is, how great the grade is.

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Obviously that's a factor.
But you know, what's the Met

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like is there, you know, 10
different pits, the depth of the

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Albany, the geometry, the strip
ratio, grade uniformity.

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There's so many things that come
into mind and I'm not sure that

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many of the undeveloped gold
assets in Dwight the Minute even

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tick sort of half of those
boxes.

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Yeah, yeah, it's pretty tricky.
Even the ones that you know

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people are excited about and
stuff like that.

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Was it like like Tat Tower Tower
Hills and undeveloped and it was

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within Genesis portfolio but
like given the strip ratio there

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is like in the nines, isn't it
matter?

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More geez, maybe yeah, I think
it was.

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But it's got it's stonk and
grade stonk and.

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Gradually, I think, I think
you've hit the nail on the head

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there, like if the project, good
projects at the end of the day

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will, will find the capital.
And I think there, there are

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projects out there, you know, if
you should have come to mind.

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And they'll, they'll get the
money and they'll be built in

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time.
And a lot of these ones are sort

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of below par.
Maybe they need a real kick on

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in the, in the gold price to
make them look more attractive.

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And then they'll they'll sort of
find the capital.

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But what do you think about how
do you look at the grey lot, the

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the book demand for those rises
that degraded compared to like

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in how much money is like that?
Wanted to flow into a a low

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grade refractory operation that
is freaking huge and comes with

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a lot of risk compared to money
flowing into a smaller scale

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1,000,000 oz operation that
geez, you'd think you could.

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You might make as much, but you
might lose as much as you could

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on degray something.
That's girl.

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I think just because there's
nothing really out there that's

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quite like it, so people almost
feel compelled that I want to be

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part of a, you know, a 500,000
outside producer.

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Yeah, it's got some, you know,
you know, things to think about,

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like the refractory nature.
They're gonna have to have a,

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you know, a pox plant there as
well.

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It's the ores coming from, you
know, multiple pits.

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How does that all kind of blend
in in that processing plant, you

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know, and it's just huge, you
know, and getting up the single

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asset company to get something
like that up.

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You know, we buddy hope they do
be fantastic, but it's not

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without its challenges.
But I think that's also a bit of

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the the alua of Degray for these
investors as well as.

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Liquidity too, buddy.
How can you put, you know,

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3,000,000 bucks to work in a in
a junior and actually ever sell

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that?
Yeah, you can't.

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Yeah, you can't get it out.
Yeah.

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But also, what are you?
What else do you choose from in

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the undeveloped space?
Look at those degree.

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OK, maybe there's Spartan, but
outside of those?

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Going overseas?
In WA or even in Australia, you

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know, it's almost like that this
is your, your, your subset.

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And if people want to allocate
capital there, that's the,

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that's the pool.
Yeah.

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So I think it's.
A big spot on, but I think

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you're spot on.
But I don't think that's the the

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right way that any investor
should really look at it right

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now, looking at any any
opportunity out there.

225
00:12:27,490 --> 00:12:30,780
And what's my return gonna be
for the risk that I'm taking on.

226
00:12:30,850 --> 00:12:34,020
Yeah.
And if you're not gonna go and,

227
00:12:34,090 --> 00:12:36,380
you know, put money just because
you really want you to

228
00:12:36,390 --> 00:12:40,320
undeveloped gold project in WA
like that, that's a funny way to

229
00:12:40,330 --> 00:12:42,510
sort of carve it out.
So it all comes down to the

230
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:44,860
returns for capital allocators
at the end of the day.

231
00:12:44,940 --> 00:12:47,000
That's around.
Would you look at, Do you think

232
00:12:47,010 --> 00:12:50,650
though like the capital
providers, if you go through the

233
00:12:50,660 --> 00:12:55,190
last few years of operations
that have come on not just gold

234
00:12:55,260 --> 00:12:59,790
but other operations that have
been developed and the frickin

235
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,880
issues and risk that is
associated, you reckon they're

236
00:13:02,890 --> 00:13:06,410
just spooked with confidence
like even like Bellevue was the

237
00:13:06,420 --> 00:13:12,300
standout bloody gride and like
free cash flow generator and

238
00:13:12,310 --> 00:13:15,200
look even they've just appeared
to have got through by the skin

239
00:13:15,210 --> 00:13:19,050
of their teeth ramping up a
project that had extremely high

240
00:13:19,060 --> 00:13:21,690
grade.
It's.

241
00:13:22,210 --> 00:13:25,800
Just they just, they need a bit
of need a bit of Dutch courage.

242
00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:30,220
No, and I mean like it's the
poor guys in the golden new

243
00:13:30,230 --> 00:13:31,630
space.
I mean, it's it's been a bit of

244
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,220
a shit time.
And I mean, unless you're

245
00:13:33,230 --> 00:13:37,060
Spartan, of course, But I think
something that could really turn

246
00:13:37,070 --> 00:13:40,000
it around for these guys is
getting verified.

247
00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:43,870
Here you go.
Whoa.

248
00:13:44,260 --> 00:13:45,690
So yeah.
Why?

249
00:13:45,730 --> 00:13:47,250
Why so?
Why?

250
00:13:47,260 --> 00:13:48,130
Not.
Why?

251
00:13:48,180 --> 00:13:51,860
Why not?
But you know, these juniors,

252
00:13:51,870 --> 00:13:54,510
they've got limited funds.
They need to spend them, you

253
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:58,750
know, appropriately and
judiciously they can use verify

254
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,150
AI to leverage all their
existing data.

255
00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:04,150
They already have GFS, Geochem,
their drill hole database, all

256
00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:06,910
that to officially generate
drill targets.

257
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:11,710
The AI even tells you what has
driven it to determine those

258
00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:15,110
areas as dual targets.
So the geos can make a very

259
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,550
informed decision about, OK,
this is what I'm going to do

260
00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:20,770
with my next dual programme.
And then once you've done that,

261
00:14:20,780 --> 00:14:25,060
Maddie, then you get yourself a
verified model so you can show

262
00:14:25,070 --> 00:14:28,390
your deposit to all your
investors in three day.

263
00:14:29,550 --> 00:14:34,150
That just needs to be screen
recorded and taken to a bank.

264
00:14:34,890 --> 00:14:38,710
This is why you should give us
money to fund our project,

265
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,620
because we are tick tick tick
tick doing what Ali Jay so told

266
00:14:42,630 --> 00:14:45,540
us to take action.
Take action.

267
00:14:45,630 --> 00:14:48,820
And I mean the people honestly,
like the people who are still

268
00:14:48,830 --> 00:14:52,800
using PowerPoint these days are
probably the same people who are

269
00:14:52,810 --> 00:14:57,740
reading the mining news daily
email 3 hours after the director

270
00:14:57,750 --> 00:15:01,330
special.
Like you're in the dark, just

271
00:15:01,340 --> 00:15:03,690
come.
On give yourself an uppercut.

272
00:15:05,660 --> 00:15:09,260
Can't verify.
Ohe, you're working super hard

273
00:15:09,270 --> 00:15:13,350
to make as many friends as you
possibly can in OHS the first

274
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:18,840
full week.
About fitting right in OHK Good

275
00:15:18,850 --> 00:15:20,260
work Chase.
He went to you.

276
00:15:20,570 --> 00:15:22,680
Do you think it's can you
sensor?

277
00:15:23,970 --> 00:15:26,780
Well, it's locked.
That needs to be a confidence

278
00:15:26,790 --> 00:15:29,620
catalyst or something.
What do you thinks gonna turn it

279
00:15:29,630 --> 00:15:31,280
around?
Because it can't.

280
00:15:31,290 --> 00:15:34,020
You can't say that they're gonna
wait for the gold price to go up

281
00:15:34,030 --> 00:15:37,620
because it's already gone up.
Maybe corporates come in and and

282
00:15:38,030 --> 00:15:40,560
actually do start bidding and
then all of a sudden they

283
00:15:40,570 --> 00:15:41,940
rewrite.
You know, it's kind of like when

284
00:15:42,290 --> 00:15:45,410
BHP bids for bloody Anglo.
All of a sudden all the copper

285
00:15:45,420 --> 00:15:48,180
equities were rated.
So I think it's gonna take that

286
00:15:48,230 --> 00:15:54,040
that will take a bit longer to
play out because we're seeing at

287
00:15:54,050 --> 00:15:58,840
the minute a lot of these
goldies, even though these

288
00:15:58,850 --> 00:16:02,600
undeveloped assets are so cheap,
right?

289
00:16:02,650 --> 00:16:06,140
Not all of them are great, but
you know, some of the even quite

290
00:16:06,150 --> 00:16:09,980
good ones are quite cheap.
There's they've chosen to

291
00:16:10,110 --> 00:16:12,840
allocate their capital
internally, whether that's

292
00:16:13,310 --> 00:16:16,260
expansions that their existing
assets are like Northern Star

293
00:16:16,270 --> 00:16:21,260
with the Super pit or, you know,
developing near mine, you know,

294
00:16:21,330 --> 00:16:25,210
pits and undergrounds like
catalysts with their Trident

295
00:16:25,220 --> 00:16:29,020
deposit, or they just exploring
their own ground like, you know,

296
00:16:29,030 --> 00:16:32,200
I think Wescott and almost a
dozen exploration rigs at their

297
00:16:32,210 --> 00:16:35,560
site.
So what does that say about if,

298
00:16:35,630 --> 00:16:40,340
if a producer reckons they're
going to get a better, better

299
00:16:40,350 --> 00:16:45,500
MPV for for dollar of CapEx or
expiration or that they spend

300
00:16:45,570 --> 00:16:50,520
internally, what does that say
about what's out there as far as

301
00:16:50,530 --> 00:16:53,440
undeveloped assets in these sort
of single asset companies?

302
00:16:53,950 --> 00:16:56,500
Yeah, are they?
But God, now, now is that if

303
00:16:56,510 --> 00:17:02,630
you're a small producer pending
producer and you want dear

304
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,569
people, now is the time to do
it.

305
00:17:06,579 --> 00:17:08,119
Cause it's all, it's all come
off.

306
00:17:08,130 --> 00:17:11,390
There's like, you know,
underground, just talking the

307
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,930
underground lens.
There is fucking gear parked up

308
00:17:13,940 --> 00:17:18,190
everywhere and, and contractors
wanting contracts with, with

309
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,770
that comes lower prices.
And like now, it just feels like

310
00:17:21,780 --> 00:17:25,369
now is the time it needs to
start happening before it

311
00:17:25,380 --> 00:17:28,650
because it while it's down here,
it goes back up very quickly.

312
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:30,950
And.
The old signwave.

313
00:17:31,020 --> 00:17:34,900
Yeah, I reckon there's, there's
a comment about just the, the

314
00:17:34,910 --> 00:17:38,580
nature of gold miners and gold
all bodies or whatever.

315
00:17:38,590 --> 00:17:41,470
For whatever reason, like gold
companies are pretty much the

316
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:42,870
worst a lot in terms of cost
control.

317
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,350
And in some ways it's because
because of the all bodies

318
00:17:45,360 --> 00:17:47,530
themselves, you have to
constantly reinvest capital.

319
00:17:47,540 --> 00:17:49,890
They get lower grade over time,
blah, blah, blah.

320
00:17:49,900 --> 00:17:53,530
But they just they they, they
never really like pay out much

321
00:17:53,540 --> 00:17:56,220
in the way of dividend at all
unless you're W African gold

322
00:17:56,230 --> 00:17:58,450
producer.
And once the mine ends, they

323
00:17:58,460 --> 00:18:02,690
have to spend the money they
make on keeping a the goal

324
00:18:02,700 --> 00:18:05,250
coming from somewhere else.
Somewhere else just keeps going

325
00:18:05,260 --> 00:18:07,390
like that.
No, that's right.

326
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:11,690
And I mean, eventually it will
come to a crunch point where

327
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,510
there are some producers who
don't have the biggest mine

328
00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,590
life, where they're not
replenishing those reserves as

329
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,570
much as they're producing and
they're gonna have to do

330
00:18:22,580 --> 00:18:26,710
something.
But also on the on the flip side

331
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:30,370
is these explorers and
developers can't keep operating

332
00:18:30,380 --> 00:18:34,790
like this for too much longer.
So what you know, what are they

333
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,790
going to do?
And I think ahead, and we're

334
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:42,030
already starting to see some of
this already is, I think we're

335
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:46,530
going to see a few survival
mergers between explorers and

336
00:18:46,540 --> 00:18:50,180
developers just to keep an
existence.

337
00:18:50,190 --> 00:18:52,430
Keep relevance in.
Some and keep relevance.

338
00:18:53,980 --> 00:18:57,560
Does it make logical sense?
I mean Keen and P&X as an

339
00:18:57,570 --> 00:19:01,970
example, I think that.
Director synergies.

340
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,830
Direct, yeah, Direct synergies,
I think there's going to be a

341
00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:12,650
bit of dumb or expensive for
what it is, M&A for the sort of

342
00:19:12,660 --> 00:19:16,990
mediocre assets.
And a lot of that as you say for

343
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:23,410
survival like continuation of
gold output, need to need to

344
00:19:23,420 --> 00:19:25,840
find it somewhere.
Need to find it somewhere and

345
00:19:25,850 --> 00:19:32,630
the the good assets which is not
a lot of left very expensive and

346
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,910
highly competitive.
There might be a few

347
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:40,110
uncompelling standalones that
somehow make it but probably

348
00:19:40,120 --> 00:19:44,530
shouldn't exist.
And then there's probably a few

349
00:19:44,580 --> 00:19:50,940
smarter standalones who
recognise, you know, you know,

350
00:19:50,950 --> 00:19:54,000
the the risks that they're going
to take on as a standalone and

351
00:19:54,010 --> 00:19:57,500
share that with the producer.
So, you know, they mine and

352
00:19:57,570 --> 00:20:00,490
someone else produces.
I mean, we've seen, you know,

353
00:20:00,850 --> 00:20:05,300
Bright Star do that recently.
Horizon and Black Cat have

354
00:20:05,310 --> 00:20:07,900
signed toll milling and all
purchase agreements and things

355
00:20:07,910 --> 00:20:08,800
like that.
So.

356
00:20:10,070 --> 00:20:14,620
Maybe that's what might happen
because people are scarred from

357
00:20:14,950 --> 00:20:17,660
single asset companies trying to
do all of this themselves, so

358
00:20:17,670 --> 00:20:21,580
maybe there's a more sharing of
infrastructure and resources.

359
00:20:21,590 --> 00:20:24,620
And risk as.
Well, and risk financially and

360
00:20:24,630 --> 00:20:26,900
operationally going forward,
yeah.

361
00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:31,800
Yeah, You got any crystal ball
predictions, JC?

362
00:20:31,890 --> 00:20:33,960
What, buddy?
But you, because you've been in

363
00:20:33,970 --> 00:20:38,780
there, you've been at the
coalface of small gold coming

364
00:20:38,790 --> 00:20:42,200
out of the bloody.
You're a previous role before

365
00:20:42,210 --> 00:20:44,920
this, Like you, you were in the
boxing ring.

366
00:20:44,930 --> 00:20:50,780
In the boxing ring, SO1II, I
thought might be a little bit of

367
00:20:50,790 --> 00:20:55,220
a left field one, but we sort of
spoke about earlier today is

368
00:20:57,300 --> 00:20:59,530
Romulus's strategy around
Spartan.

369
00:20:59,540 --> 00:21:04,230
Now they've locked her away 18%.
They've stated they have subject

370
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,440
to various qualifications, known
intention to make or current

371
00:21:08,450 --> 00:21:12,960
intention to make a takeover.
How do they?

372
00:21:13,270 --> 00:21:17,320
It's pretty obvious that you
know, it, it will happen at some

373
00:21:17,330 --> 00:21:22,010
stage to about what?
What does that look like?

374
00:21:22,020 --> 00:21:27,270
You know, do they do they let
Spartan, you know, charge ahead,

375
00:21:28,390 --> 00:21:33,220
you know, ramp up get into
production something as it sort

376
00:21:33,230 --> 00:21:37,720
of more often than not tends to
happen is there's ramp U issues

377
00:21:37,870 --> 00:21:42,260
and they pick U that 82% much
cheaper and they're betting on

378
00:21:42,270 --> 00:21:44,930
that.
Or as you were saying, Maddie

379
00:21:44,940 --> 00:21:48,380
earlier today, what if they find
another never, never or another

380
00:21:48,390 --> 00:21:52,400
pepper and it becomes twice as
body more expensive.

381
00:21:52,410 --> 00:21:59,220
So I'm not sure how they might
go about that, but um, it's not

382
00:21:59,230 --> 00:22:04,380
the first time we've seen people
go and expensive 1st 20% to then

383
00:22:04,390 --> 00:22:09,600
get a cheaper 80% later.
Yeah, I, I just, I don't know

384
00:22:09,610 --> 00:22:13,570
there there's, there's
metallurgy and just plant

385
00:22:13,580 --> 00:22:18,340
performance uncertainty,
obviously with Spartan, but like

386
00:22:18,430 --> 00:22:21,760
that all body and that mind what
they've proven up the pepper's

387
00:22:21,770 --> 00:22:24,820
been the kicker because it's
like taking away worries about

388
00:22:24,830 --> 00:22:29,760
the ounce per vertical metre
queries on that operation.

389
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,330
So it's sort of negated that a
bit.

390
00:22:32,340 --> 00:22:36,330
And they're well, there's just
nothing out there like it at the

391
00:22:36,340 --> 00:22:40,210
moment.
No, that is that you can say is

392
00:22:40,220 --> 00:22:42,900
a pretty simple bloody thing to
mine.

393
00:22:42,910 --> 00:22:46,800
A thick, bloody thick.
It's not a narrow vein or body

394
00:22:46,810 --> 00:22:49,910
where you're going to get a lot
of grade variability due to

395
00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,330
dilution.
Like it is bloody thick unless

396
00:22:52,340 --> 00:22:54,710
the whole hangs the hanging more
bloody drops in.

397
00:22:54,810 --> 00:22:56,710
Well they did did some smearing
and the results up.

398
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:58,030
Today I saw someone post on
LinkedIn.

399
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,110
About, did you?
Yeah, Well, I didn't say that.

400
00:23:00,500 --> 00:23:02,520
Yeah.
But yeah, Daddy Stick, you're

401
00:23:02,530 --> 00:23:03,810
right.
Yeah.

402
00:23:03,820 --> 00:23:10,410
It's yeah, it's that's why,
That's why I think it's the big

403
00:23:10,420 --> 00:23:14,680
question for Romelus is do we
just buy the whole thing now

404
00:23:14,750 --> 00:23:16,700
before it gets away?
Well, Ellie, Ellie's theory

405
00:23:16,710 --> 00:23:19,140
about them, you know,
potentially waiting until cause

406
00:23:19,150 --> 00:23:21,100
it can't, it can't get away from
them cause no one else can buy

407
00:23:21,110 --> 00:23:23,980
it, right?
They, they, they, they control

408
00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:27,120
the ultimate outcome.
Like you can't buy it without

409
00:23:27,130 --> 00:23:30,140
Ramelius sort of saying yes now.
The price, The price getting

410
00:23:30,150 --> 00:23:32,540
away.
Price, price, price is a factor,

411
00:23:32,550 --> 00:23:35,700
but if it if you know to
Halley's point, something

412
00:23:35,710 --> 00:23:37,020
typically goes wrong and ramp
up.

413
00:23:37,070 --> 00:23:40,920
But for them to wait for that
assumes that Romulus can afford

414
00:23:40,930 --> 00:23:44,080
to wait and remember they're
trying to backfill their own,

415
00:23:44,380 --> 00:23:46,870
you know, like absolute just
falling off a Cliff of

416
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,290
production that they've got
around the corner.

417
00:23:48,300 --> 00:23:51,230
So I just think the timing, the
timing thing is a factor as well

418
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:52,930
on whether or not they play the
waiting game.

419
00:23:52,980 --> 00:23:56,230
Yeah, they can.
Only they can only really wait

420
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:57,830
so long.
Yes.

421
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,780
Yeah.
Yeah, right.

422
00:23:59,790 --> 00:24:00,770
What?
What else?

423
00:24:00,780 --> 00:24:04,870
What else stick I'm sensing and
merchants and prediction?

424
00:24:04,930 --> 00:24:09,090
Yes.
So I think there's a bit you can

425
00:24:09,100 --> 00:24:18,610
imply from inaction.
And one example of that is sort

426
00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:21,890
of the, again, sticking with the
sort of Murchison rage.

427
00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:26,340
And you saw Westgold who, who
haven't, to my knowledge, have

428
00:24:26,350 --> 00:24:29,730
done a deal like this at at
least in a very long time, you

429
00:24:29,740 --> 00:24:33,490
know, do this strategic alliance
and, and, and all purchase, you

430
00:24:33,500 --> 00:24:35,890
know, looking to organise and
all purchase agreement with Ira

431
00:24:35,900 --> 00:24:37,840
gold.
Now mind you, they just put out

432
00:24:37,850 --> 00:24:44,950
a resource five months ago.
Make medals Great Boulder and

433
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:49,490
Odyssey of all existed in that
region a lot longer have all had

434
00:24:49,500 --> 00:24:53,020
their resources or in the makers
case or even a feasibility study

435
00:24:53,030 --> 00:24:57,690
out there a lot longer.
Little old Ora pops up, puts

436
00:24:57,700 --> 00:25:01,400
something out and we're scold
acts on that and not on any of

437
00:25:01,410 --> 00:25:04,930
the others.
Does that sort of cement the

438
00:25:04,940 --> 00:25:08,670
other status as are they sort of
stranded assets?

439
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,870
They've got to figure out their
own processing solution.

440
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,370
Maybe, yeah, but it's also not
completely obvious that they

441
00:25:15,380 --> 00:25:19,130
haven't had discussions or or
inquiries.

442
00:25:19,140 --> 00:25:21,350
It just sort of none of its
materialised in the public

443
00:25:21,360 --> 00:25:23,520
domain.
But do you think they would

444
00:25:23,530 --> 00:25:25,790
have?
They would have done something

445
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,530
by then.
That is what I'm trying to say.

446
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,650
Would have tipped in because
they they've all had plenty of

447
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,190
placements that the risings that
they've conducted all those ones

448
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,290
you've mentioned.
And yeah, I suppose Westcott

449
00:25:37,300 --> 00:25:41,280
would have had the option to tip
into those as a cornerstone and

450
00:25:41,290 --> 00:25:44,630
they obviously haven't to my
knowledge.

451
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,160
I don't think or remember West
Gold had the Altos steak that

452
00:25:48,170 --> 00:25:53,450
they then it's all back to Zeta
but I'm not sure they have.

453
00:25:53,460 --> 00:25:56,080
They might have sub 5% stakes in
the.

454
00:25:56,090 --> 00:25:58,340
Others I don't think that.
Because they would be on as a

455
00:25:58,350 --> 00:26:00,610
listed investment, wouldn't it?
Yeah, in the annual statement.

456
00:26:00,620 --> 00:26:02,740
See, I don't think they've got
any listed investments at all

457
00:26:02,790 --> 00:26:05,900
other than no, don't they've got
any listed investments at all.

458
00:26:06,010 --> 00:26:10,040
Besides, alright, yeah, yeah.
So I don't know if that sort of

459
00:26:10,050 --> 00:26:14,640
says something and I think sort
of goes to my earlier point.

460
00:26:14,650 --> 00:26:17,020
I mean, that's not the only
example of it.

461
00:26:18,370 --> 00:26:23,370
You know that, you know, that's
this this corporate action and

462
00:26:23,430 --> 00:26:29,020
and this sort of focus inwards
on the existing portfolio seeing

463
00:26:29,030 --> 00:26:31,980
a lot more of that than sort of
looking outwardly.

464
00:26:32,110 --> 00:26:35,060
Well, and I think the the
decline of the equities in the

465
00:26:35,070 --> 00:26:42,030
juniors has like this is it's
like a like exponentially slowed

466
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,630
everything down.
Can I say exponentially slowed?

467
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,580
You know what I mean?
OK, exponential decay.

468
00:26:47,590 --> 00:26:52,930
Decay just like just because all
their share prices have dropped

469
00:26:52,940 --> 00:26:56,970
considerably, which means one,
they're less inclined to raise

470
00:26:56,980 --> 00:27:00,230
capital because their share
price is down and if they do,

471
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,530
they can't raise as much.
And that just slows down

472
00:27:03,620 --> 00:27:08,410
exploration size down any sort
of progress towards developing

473
00:27:08,420 --> 00:27:11,170
or studying or everything.
And we've just been in that

474
00:27:11,180 --> 00:27:13,200
limbo.
The fuck and what?

475
00:27:13,270 --> 00:27:16,550
Two.
At least two you. 2-3 years but

476
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,920
when it's flying and the cash is
coming in, things can get done

477
00:27:19,930 --> 00:27:21,300
quicker.
You can get more people to

478
00:27:21,310 --> 00:27:24,060
progress things, more
consultants, more bloody

479
00:27:24,130 --> 00:27:26,200
potential to get gear and you're
away.

480
00:27:26,330 --> 00:27:31,240
So we're we're in a holding
pattern, you'd say.

481
00:27:32,610 --> 00:27:34,590
Of it so that we.
Don't require shares.

482
00:27:34,670 --> 00:27:36,370
So awesome.
Alley, OHS.

483
00:27:36,380 --> 00:27:37,710
Good.
You got me thinking.

484
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,210
Yeah.
So what's the what's the, what's

485
00:27:40,220 --> 00:27:44,550
the overall conclusion?
You're the GC's eyes are on it.

486
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:53,860
I think, I think the overall
conclusion is any new

487
00:27:53,870 --> 00:28:04,110
discoveries, um, that, you know,
fit that, um, economic answers

488
00:28:04,120 --> 00:28:08,470
quit or, or just ounces in
general that are quicker to get

489
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:14,890
into cash flow mode are just
going to be rated so much more

490
00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:18,350
and will attract the funding.
And if you're not on that stage,

491
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,730
I think it's still going to be a
pretty glowing period, gloomy

492
00:28:21,740 --> 00:28:23,250
period ahead.
Yeah.

493
00:28:23,410 --> 00:28:27,070
And these producers have got so
much optionality, it's not

494
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,420
funny.
They could pick up any of these

495
00:28:29,430 --> 00:28:32,530
guys if they wanted to.
I don't think money is, you

496
00:28:32,540 --> 00:28:36,510
know, money is really no object
to them if they wanted it and it

497
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,810
made sense for them.
But at the moment it seems like

498
00:28:39,820 --> 00:28:42,270
the focus is a lot more
internal.

499
00:28:42,940 --> 00:28:45,350
Who's it's like a who, Who's
gonna blink first?

500
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:46,390
But.
Little bit.

501
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:50,370
Yeah, but the the Rex thing
yesterday is an example of like

502
00:28:50,380 --> 00:28:53,460
one of those.
Yeah, there's so many Rexes of

503
00:28:53,470 --> 00:28:56,170
the gold industry.
Yeah, even amount Mundy selling

504
00:28:56,180 --> 00:28:59,890
for 300 million bucks, Yeah.
What do you think of like, oh

505
00:28:59,900 --> 00:29:03,450
God, you can rattle them off at
like Alto Oz gold.

506
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,480
They are a lot medallion like
there's so many projects that

507
00:29:09,490 --> 00:29:14,270
are just astral, astral, so many
projects that are sitting there

508
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:19,340
just running around conferences
waiting to get bought.

509
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,520
And will it take some
international investment to

510
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,890
swipe them?
U not sure.

511
00:29:26,100 --> 00:29:28,870
It's yeah.
Ohhhhh interesting times.

512
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:35,390
I can see on the back of JC's
episode a pivot pivot.

513
00:29:35,460 --> 00:29:37,930
Yeah, the catalyst.
No 100.

514
00:29:39,530 --> 00:29:44,930
Ding, Ding, Ding.
I remember in 2020, like it's

515
00:29:44,940 --> 00:29:47,000
amazing how fast the market can
turn as well.

516
00:29:47,010 --> 00:29:49,360
You know, like, like all of a
sudden the thing that's

517
00:29:49,370 --> 00:29:51,650
completely out of vogue can be
rapidly in vogue.

518
00:29:51,660 --> 00:29:55,450
And the the junior undeveloped
golds, just they just flew in

519
00:29:55,460 --> 00:29:57,700
the space of a month.
It was just crazy and they all

520
00:29:57,710 --> 00:29:59,920
rerated.
Happened so. 3X yeah, it

521
00:29:59,930 --> 00:30:02,040
happened.
It just it's all doom and gloom

522
00:30:02,050 --> 00:30:04,320
and then it's not very, very
fast sometimes.

523
00:30:04,370 --> 00:30:06,920
Yeah, Yeah.
I think if you, if you've been

524
00:30:06,930 --> 00:30:10,040
given an offer by a company or
something, let us know and we'll

525
00:30:10,140 --> 00:30:13,630
cover your story allowed to do
that.

526
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,150
Maddie, you're in the red shirt.
You really are.

527
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:21,130
You gotta give us something for
us to give you something.

528
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,710
We offer no favourable coverage
to anyone ever exchange for

529
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,740
anything.
Or if you give us good info, we

530
00:30:28,750 --> 00:30:30,240
might.
Why?

531
00:30:30,310 --> 00:30:32,340
Why won't be able to impact my
analysis?

532
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:41,740
Right, Meteoric scope had study
released yesterday negative

533
00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:46,300
reaction to it down 30% in two
days, pretty conclusive as to

534
00:30:46,310 --> 00:30:51,580
why you can it will go through
the the the deck here like yeah,

535
00:30:51,590 --> 00:30:55,200
it's essentially the whole the
scoping study is a bet or a

536
00:30:55,210 --> 00:30:58,520
hedge on the rare earth market.
So because they've got you know

537
00:30:58,530 --> 00:31:02,390
51 bucks a kilo spot price in
the deck for NDPR, which I

538
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:06,450
assume that 51 is, we see like
4350 in the morning, but I think

539
00:31:06,460 --> 00:31:08,800
that's includes the value added
tax.

540
00:31:08,870 --> 00:31:12,940
So lost lightest process.
So today was 4950.

541
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,260
So that spot price scenario
gives a post tax MPV of

542
00:31:16,310 --> 00:31:21,040
16,000,000 which aren't good.
But the longer term pricing

543
00:31:21,050 --> 00:31:27,710
forecasts from Adamus are at
$111.00 a kilo.

544
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:32,510
So over double that gives 700
mil MPV like cause and the CapEx

545
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,090
jumps significantly from what
was sort of predicted and

546
00:31:35,100 --> 00:31:38,910
modelled.
So they've got US 403 mil, which

547
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:44,700
includes a 35% contingency and
that's like that was 43% higher

548
00:31:44,710 --> 00:31:47,970
than what was previously
modelled by Canaccord, so.

549
00:31:48,070 --> 00:31:51,590
That's where the markets sort of
spooked, spooked looks.

550
00:31:52,180 --> 00:31:56,550
And the pie ability is an
interesting #70% they said their

551
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:02,020
payability on the, I'm, I'm not
gonna lie, there's so many, this

552
00:32:02,030 --> 00:32:04,520
is so complicated and I don't
fully understand it, whether

553
00:32:04,530 --> 00:32:08,840
that's payability on the bloody,
the recovered NDPR, or the,

554
00:32:09,310 --> 00:32:12,600
yeah, the, both that and the
basket of rare earths.

555
00:32:12,610 --> 00:32:15,140
And anyway, so I don't, don't
drill me too much on the

556
00:32:15,150 --> 00:32:17,780
comments, but we'll get into
China later.

557
00:32:17,790 --> 00:32:21,280
But the payability from China on
rare earths is a point of

558
00:32:21,290 --> 00:32:24,420
conjecture you'd say on the
straight.

559
00:32:24,510 --> 00:32:31,440
So now this the scenario they
put out includes it's just a one

560
00:32:31,450 --> 00:32:33,600
stage operation with the
southern licences.

561
00:32:33,610 --> 00:32:38,080
I'll bring up the maps of Bardo
and Kappa Domel wouldn't even be

562
00:32:38,090 --> 00:32:42,290
close to pronouncing that right.
So and but there's a resource

563
00:32:42,300 --> 00:32:44,960
update scheduled in the
September quarter for for the

564
00:32:44,970 --> 00:32:49,000
Figueroa deposit to the north,
which could bring some more high

565
00:32:49,010 --> 00:32:51,500
grade into the into the further
study.

566
00:32:51,510 --> 00:32:57,740
So we asked the question to Mike
Bevin, Mr GO Invest when he was

567
00:32:57,750 --> 00:33:01,910
on the show about the scale of
these operations compared to the

568
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,290
incumbents like your liaison MP
Materials.

569
00:33:05,300 --> 00:33:07,830
So and we've got a bit of an
answer today.

570
00:33:07,900 --> 00:33:12,790
So I'll show you Linus's sales
volumes are for the last four

571
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:19,390
quarters last year around 6000
tonnes of NDPR sold and they're

572
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,110
they're targeting around double
of that in the coming years,

573
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,970
targeting around 12,000 tonne of
NDPR MP materials, which has got

574
00:33:27,980 --> 00:33:30,520
the Mountain Pass mine in
California.

575
00:33:31,370 --> 00:33:34,560
Morgan Stanley model for that
shows Mountain Pass pumping out

576
00:33:34,570 --> 00:33:38,980
about 6000 tonne of NDPR by
2026, about half of what Linus

577
00:33:38,990 --> 00:33:42,130
are aiming for.
Meteoric's Caldera, which we're

578
00:33:42,140 --> 00:33:46,160
talking about right now, looking
to recover about 3000 tonne of

579
00:33:46,170 --> 00:33:49,400
NDPR per annum.
So about half of what Linus got

580
00:33:49,570 --> 00:33:52,540
last year and about 1/4 of what
they're aiming for.

581
00:33:52,550 --> 00:33:54,890
So there's, there's the scale
answer.

582
00:33:54,990 --> 00:33:58,060
Sure, there's potential for
bloody bigger there.

583
00:33:58,070 --> 00:34:02,000
This is for a 5 million tonne
operation at Caldera, which is

584
00:34:02,010 --> 00:34:06,570
what's in the study O what the
world of rare earths will look

585
00:34:06,580 --> 00:34:11,690
like in the future when this
mine might be in operation.

586
00:34:11,699 --> 00:34:14,230
That is the big question, isn't
it, Richard Dinia?

587
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,350
There's a lot up in the air
about this.

588
00:34:16,790 --> 00:34:18,489
They had the long term dynamics
of this market.

589
00:34:18,500 --> 00:34:21,070
Obviously China play a massive
role, but the West is working

590
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:24,350
really hard to try and wean
themselves off the China

591
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:25,750
alliance.
And that's going to require a

592
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,130
lot more expertise and a lot
more work on the the downstream

593
00:34:28,139 --> 00:34:29,909
separation parts of the industry
as well.

594
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,790
But which currently just it's
not there yet, but it might be.

595
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,639
And so it's kind of hard to to
know which price vector you run

596
00:34:36,650 --> 00:34:39,719
here because, because all of
that's a bit yeah, up in the

597
00:34:39,730 --> 00:34:42,090
air.
And the fact that China have

598
00:34:42,100 --> 00:34:47,710
like the control over the final
separation of rare earths, plus

599
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:52,429
the fact that they mine around
60% of the rare earths as well

600
00:34:52,639 --> 00:34:56,810
is talk about, as you said to me
before, Travis, if there is any

601
00:34:56,820 --> 00:35:00,650
market that needs to be
bifurcated or separated from

602
00:35:00,660 --> 00:35:06,380
China, it is rare earths.
Because like you look at of iron

603
00:35:06,390 --> 00:35:10,480
ore, lithium, for example, like
there's a reliance on it all

604
00:35:10,490 --> 00:35:15,540
coming from around the world,
but and downstream processing in

605
00:35:15,550 --> 00:35:18,500
China.
But this is all over half of the

606
00:35:18,510 --> 00:35:21,760
world is mined.
Mind, mind, rare earths is from

607
00:35:21,770 --> 00:35:25,020
China as well.
So this is a freaking Chinese

608
00:35:25,030 --> 00:35:28,030
stranglehold on this.
Yeah, this basket of elements.

609
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,000
I'm sure some, some, some people
would, would argue that there's

610
00:35:31,010 --> 00:35:34,200
already evidence of bifurcation
in the fact that the Japanese

611
00:35:34,210 --> 00:35:37,870
buyers of Linus's product pay
more than, you know, you're

612
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:39,100
saved elsewhere and stuff like
that.

613
00:35:39,110 --> 00:35:41,420
So there's yeah, but you're
right, because that

614
00:35:41,430 --> 00:35:45,160
concentration factor with China,
if you're ever gonna see degrees

615
00:35:45,170 --> 00:35:47,540
of bifurcation, it's here.
It might not materialise it like

616
00:35:47,550 --> 00:35:50,360
a spot price bifurcation, but
just just different customers

617
00:35:50,370 --> 00:35:52,920
paying different quantities.
But kind of, yeah, you need to

618
00:35:52,930 --> 00:35:56,580
bolster out the the downstream
component in the West to be able

619
00:35:56,590 --> 00:35:59,710
to really see a lot of data to
some of that I think too.

620
00:36:00,610 --> 00:36:04,040
This is this is Speaking of a
macro fucking analysis.

621
00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:06,160
This is where you need to
interject.

622
00:36:06,270 --> 00:36:09,590
I, I think that the Super
important point guys that

623
00:36:09,780 --> 00:36:14,350
Kingsley Jones first switched us
onto a while ago is that even if

624
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,360
you get the, the ultimate sort
of downstream happening in the

625
00:36:17,370 --> 00:36:21,210
West, the actual demand for the,
the rare earth magnet and

626
00:36:21,220 --> 00:36:24,750
products has to also be in that
country.

627
00:36:24,900 --> 00:36:28,930
IE whatever the, the magnet and
whatnot is used in has to go

628
00:36:28,940 --> 00:36:32,590
into an application that is
manufactured in the, the states,

629
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:33,830
if that's what we're talking
about.

630
00:36:33,900 --> 00:36:37,080
And at the moment that
application, be that in a, you

631
00:36:37,090 --> 00:36:41,870
know, an EV or whatever is by
and large getting done in China.

632
00:36:41,950 --> 00:36:44,860
So that's that's another element
on top of what you guys have

633
00:36:44,870 --> 00:36:47,020
just laid out.
That hits cost, too.

634
00:36:47,030 --> 00:36:49,260
Yeah, if the windmill is getting
manufactured in China or the.

635
00:36:49,590 --> 00:36:52,740
Yeah, the TV or the.
The DOS and vacuum cleaner

636
00:36:52,810 --> 00:36:54,560
Bloody.
That's why Dawson sucked the

637
00:36:54,570 --> 00:36:56,920
living shit out of everything.
Rare earth magnets.

638
00:36:57,050 --> 00:36:59,890
Like Pixie dust?
Pixie dust but they like and

639
00:36:59,900 --> 00:37:05,100
that and that's why this whole
payability of 70% on these rare

640
00:37:05,110 --> 00:37:07,300
earths might be very
questionable because when China

641
00:37:07,310 --> 00:37:11,530
have got all all the control of
that final separation of rare

642
00:37:11,540 --> 00:37:13,810
earths.
I'd like someone has told me

643
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,930
that they might only pay 20 to
50% depending on how they feel

644
00:37:17,940 --> 00:37:21,230
at the time on a mixed
payability on a mixed rare earth

645
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:24,750
carbonate.
So and because considering they

646
00:37:24,860 --> 00:37:29,370
mine 60% of it already
themselves so they can get their

647
00:37:29,380 --> 00:37:31,220
own.
Yeah.

648
00:37:31,230 --> 00:37:34,010
So a lot to play out on this
macro scale for rare earths.

649
00:37:34,020 --> 00:37:38,490
So if there's an ex China supply
chain development develop.

650
00:37:38,500 --> 00:37:42,530
So yeah, well, while lithium's
down, maybe rare earths, let's

651
00:37:42,540 --> 00:37:46,840
tie down as well until Evie
fever returns.

652
00:37:46,950 --> 00:37:50,560
EV fever.
Do you reckon if Trump gets in,

653
00:37:50,570 --> 00:37:55,920
that downstream supply chain as
far as in the US will change

654
00:37:55,930 --> 00:37:58,600
quite dramatically?
Make America Great Again I.

655
00:37:58,830 --> 00:38:00,360
Think.
What was that?

656
00:38:00,370 --> 00:38:04,720
Was that two years ago when
Biden he's was trying to sign

657
00:38:04,730 --> 00:38:09,770
the thing to try and secure rare
earth supply chain in the US,

658
00:38:09,820 --> 00:38:13,420
was that?
Yeah, a lot of it's centred

659
00:38:13,430 --> 00:38:18,560
around the yeah, the IRA is one
of the key bits of legislation.

660
00:38:18,650 --> 00:38:22,820
I don't think any of us are, are
geopolitical experts, ally.

661
00:38:22,830 --> 00:38:25,850
But you know, one of the things
a lot of people point to is that

662
00:38:25,860 --> 00:38:29,080
a lot of these jobs created are
in the the sort of heartland of

663
00:38:29,090 --> 00:38:31,560
America, a lot of Republican
States and whatnot.

664
00:38:31,630 --> 00:38:35,740
But beyond that, I reckon people
can get a much better sort of

665
00:38:35,790 --> 00:38:38,160
news regarding what Trump's
going to do if he takes office

666
00:38:38,170 --> 00:38:41,200
from from other sort of sources.
Should have got Mattie Warden to

667
00:38:41,210 --> 00:38:44,080
give a Trump comment.
He's a Democrat, bloody have

668
00:38:44,090 --> 00:38:46,420
some colourful comments about
Trump no doubt.

669
00:38:47,630 --> 00:38:50,870
Yeah, I mean, so super
interesting being a, a Democrat

670
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:54,640
also being where he's from in
the in the heart of coal mining

671
00:38:54,650 --> 00:38:58,520
country in in America is a
interesting sort of position

672
00:38:58,530 --> 00:39:01,260
where I'm sure you get a lot
from from both ends of the

673
00:39:01,270 --> 00:39:03,400
spectrum.
Yeah, very good.

674
00:39:03,410 --> 00:39:05,280
JD, what do you got for US
cover?

675
00:39:06,430 --> 00:39:09,410
I saw this this pop up today and
I got have been intrigued.

676
00:39:09,420 --> 00:39:13,360
So Silvercorp as you, as you
mentioned in the intro, they

677
00:39:13,430 --> 00:39:16,200
were unsuccessful in their
pursuit of all Corp.

678
00:39:16,210 --> 00:39:19,780
And on the back of that very
shortly after failing to to get

679
00:39:19,790 --> 00:39:23,360
their hands on all Corp, they
saw this company Adventus with a

680
00:39:23,370 --> 00:39:26,520
project in Ecuador.
And they decided to have a go.

681
00:39:26,530 --> 00:39:30,520
And it looked until the last
minute that it was going to go

682
00:39:30,530 --> 00:39:31,900
ahead.
But we've had a bit of drama on

683
00:39:31,910 --> 00:39:33,100
the back of it.
Yeah, right.

684
00:39:33,110 --> 00:39:34,920
You say so.
So Adventist.

685
00:39:34,930 --> 00:39:38,060
So you said Silverstone were
trying to buy Adventists?

686
00:39:38,610 --> 00:39:40,620
Silver.
Corp.

687
00:39:40,790 --> 00:39:42,250
Silverstone.
Silverstone.

688
00:39:42,260 --> 00:39:43,450
Silverstone.
Ohf right.

689
00:39:43,460 --> 00:39:45,780
I thought you said buddy.
Sorry, I was in La La land

690
00:39:45,790 --> 00:39:47,780
there.
I'll secret who Silverstone

691
00:39:47,790 --> 00:39:49,820
born.
I do know Kenny Kenny.

692
00:39:49,830 --> 00:39:52,240
Kenny loves the silver.
He loves them and I too.

693
00:39:52,250 --> 00:39:54,320
He does.
He's just all about it.

694
00:39:54,410 --> 00:39:55,920
Yeah, right.
So.

695
00:39:55,990 --> 00:39:58,290
Even though it doesn't produce
too much silver these days.

696
00:39:58,300 --> 00:40:00,320
Yeah, true.
What a bloody If Silverstone

697
00:40:00,330 --> 00:40:02,200
were gonna merge with anyone,
who do you reckon?

698
00:40:03,130 --> 00:40:04,650
Smack.
Well.

699
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:06,610
Yeah, that's actually not a bad
shit.

700
00:40:06,620 --> 00:40:10,640
So imagine if Silverstein could
put all the power in there and

701
00:40:10,650 --> 00:40:15,090
then Smack could run all the
cable underground light and do

702
00:40:15,100 --> 00:40:17,090
all the hope they got the HV
ticket.

703
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,390
That's a bloody turd.
That's a vertically integrated

704
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:22,730
turnkey solution.
Silverstein do a bit of bloody

705
00:40:22,740 --> 00:40:25,570
pipe work too.
They could probably they might

706
00:40:25,580 --> 00:40:29,180
even have a look at Get Wet as
well.

707
00:40:29,460 --> 00:40:30,940
That's a lot of synergies,
Silver.

708
00:40:30,950 --> 00:40:35,190
Silverstone, M and I.
But powering the mining industry

709
00:40:35,850 --> 00:40:38,740
everywhere that you look, mate,
I just there's just you don't

710
00:40:38,750 --> 00:40:40,820
even quite notice it, but
there's just signs of

711
00:40:40,830 --> 00:40:43,560
Silverstone were here everywhere
you go, this room, I think, I

712
00:40:43,570 --> 00:40:45,940
think Silverstone powering it.
Yeah, yeah, they got the they

713
00:40:45,950 --> 00:40:48,920
chucked the Jennies in for.
Silver Corps M and a room

714
00:40:49,090 --> 00:40:50,760
silver.
If Silverstone were powering

715
00:40:50,770 --> 00:40:53,300
that, the deal would go through.
Orrick and Silverstone take over

716
00:40:53,310 --> 00:40:56,620
Silver Corp.
Their country of Thailand,

717
00:40:56,730 --> 00:41:00,970
Silverstone is powering Bali,
Silverstone's parents.

718
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,510
They're gonna be powering us
onto a holiday.

719
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:09,150
Maybe just wait months payment.
We're going to get into raisins.

720
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,410
While they sat, this deal didn't
go ahead.

721
00:41:11,420 --> 00:41:15,000
And no, reading between the
lines, it very well could have

722
00:41:15,010 --> 00:41:18,570
been that they didn't.
They weren't planning on using

723
00:41:18,580 --> 00:41:20,800
Silverstone.
No, it could be in.

724
00:41:20,810 --> 00:41:23,490
Discussions already.
Yeah, right.

725
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:24,810
OK.
Why?

726
00:41:24,820 --> 00:41:27,330
Why didn't it?
Go ahead, JD.

727
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,790
So it looked done and dusted and
you know, you've got board

728
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,990
approval, shareholder approval,
court approval.

729
00:41:34,000 --> 00:41:38,030
It was all set to close last
Friday and then Silvercorp

730
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:41,500
informed Adventist there the
company they were buying that

731
00:41:41,510 --> 00:41:45,780
one or more of the conditions,
the the key conditions had not

732
00:41:45,790 --> 00:41:49,280
been met and this constituted a
material adverse effect.

733
00:41:49,860 --> 00:41:53,270
And then on the back of this,
the Adventist share price has

734
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:58,280
had a pretty bad fall from $0.49
down to $0.34.

735
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:01,150
So things are things are looking
a bit shaky.

736
00:42:01,700 --> 00:42:06,320
To give a bit of background on
the deal, like I said, it came

737
00:42:06,330 --> 00:42:10,560
back, it came out on the back of
Silver Corp not being able to

738
00:42:10,570 --> 00:42:14,270
buy or Corp.
So I think on the 26th of April

739
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:18,890
is when they wanted to is when
they agreed this deal.

740
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,690
And you know, they were keen,
right?

741
00:42:21,700 --> 00:42:24,100
Pretty clearly a development
project that didn't want to buy

742
00:42:24,110 --> 00:42:25,320
mine.
They wanted something that they

743
00:42:25,330 --> 00:42:27,680
could develop and see the
returns on.

744
00:42:28,190 --> 00:42:31,620
So they fixed their eyes on
Adventists and Adventists are

745
00:42:31,630 --> 00:42:36,780
the majority owner of the El
Domo Cupri Pamba copper gold

746
00:42:36,790 --> 00:42:39,960
project in Ecuador.
Now the the numbers.

747
00:42:39,970 --> 00:42:41,700
Actually done.
Pretty good bloody pronunciation

748
00:42:41,710 --> 00:42:43,530
there.
Yeah, I thought so through it a

749
00:42:43,540 --> 00:42:46,540
couple of times.
They the the numbers actually

750
00:42:46,550 --> 00:42:51,960
look alright on this one.
So 60% IRR NPV using 8% discount

751
00:42:51,970 --> 00:42:56,490
rate of US 308 million.
So it's not a massive project at

752
00:42:56,500 --> 00:42:59,810
a US copper price of 3 bucks, 50
a pound.

753
00:42:59,860 --> 00:43:04,090
So clearly a a bit you can do on
that front with the CapEx of

754
00:43:04,100 --> 00:43:07,210
about 240 US like I said
relatively small scale.

755
00:43:07,220 --> 00:43:11,070
They want to produce 21,000
tonnes of copper equivalent per

756
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:16,270
annum with 80% of the the NSR to
come from copper and gold.

757
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:20,630
So all up are $200 million
Canadian all stripped deal

758
00:43:20,940 --> 00:43:25,670
coming in at a 31% premium.
And like I said, there were a

759
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,880
couple of parallels with the
deal that they did with All

760
00:43:28,890 --> 00:43:30,620
Corp.
They launched a concurrent

761
00:43:30,630 --> 00:43:36,300
placement for Silver Corp to buy
15% of Adventist in newly issued

762
00:43:36,310 --> 00:43:37,800
script.
Saying that before.

763
00:43:38,110 --> 00:43:41,920
Yeah, that's a that's very much
one of the the tricks in their

764
00:43:41,930 --> 00:43:44,960
playbook.
So what's a stall on the deal

765
00:43:44,970 --> 00:43:48,200
now, JD?
Mate, there's been a real

766
00:43:48,210 --> 00:43:51,960
spanner thrown in the works.
So Silvercorp heard about a bit

767
00:43:51,970 --> 00:43:56,180
of litigation a few weeks ago
now regarding the environmental

768
00:43:56,190 --> 00:43:59,760
licence.
Now they heard about this via a

769
00:43:59,770 --> 00:44:01,770
announcement that Adventists put
out.

770
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,860
Silver Court then approached
Adventists a few weeks after

771
00:44:04,870 --> 00:44:07,220
hearing about it.
This is last week saying they

772
00:44:07,230 --> 00:44:09,970
weren't prepared to complete the
deal on the previously planned

773
00:44:09,980 --> 00:44:11,790
timeline.
Like I said, that would have

774
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:15,920
wrapped up on Friday as the the
litigation constituted a

775
00:44:15,930 --> 00:44:20,250
material adverse effect.
This environmental licence

776
00:44:20,260 --> 00:44:23,270
obviously super important.
Adventists had got that back in

777
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,650
January.
That's a big check of the box.

778
00:44:25,660 --> 00:44:28,990
That is one of the reasons why
your Silver Corp thinking, hey,

779
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,630
this is development ready, this
project.

780
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,650
We're got a clear line of sight
to being able to build the thing

781
00:44:34,660 --> 00:44:37,570
and mine and start a mine
really.

782
00:44:37,630 --> 00:44:40,200
So what they've done on the back
of this, they've said we're not

783
00:44:40,210 --> 00:44:43,280
walking away completely.
We'll push the deadline out till

784
00:44:43,290 --> 00:44:46,380
July 31st and try and reach a
deal and just monitor this

785
00:44:46,390 --> 00:44:49,360
litigation.
Now that litigation comes from a

786
00:44:49,530 --> 00:44:53,240
local third party with a bit of
backing from a non, non

787
00:44:53,250 --> 00:44:55,940
government organisations.
So a bit hard to find too much

788
00:44:55,950 --> 00:44:59,860
detail, but it's a, it's not
completely off brand for what

789
00:44:59,870 --> 00:45:03,710
we've heard about in Ecuador.
I know there's a very kind of

790
00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:08,050
similar situation playing out
with solid gold also in

791
00:45:08,060 --> 00:45:09,590
countries.
So sort of getting that social

792
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,290
and environmental licence
obviously critical and seems to

793
00:45:13,300 --> 00:45:17,970
be a bit of a, a hurdle in, in
country there in Ecuador.

794
00:45:17,980 --> 00:45:22,290
So Adventists were really pissed
off about this, you know,

795
00:45:22,340 --> 00:45:25,630
reading between the lines of
their announcements saying that

796
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:30,430
this does not constitute a
material adverse effect in their

797
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:33,530
opinion, and they're determined
to see the deal go through.

798
00:45:34,050 --> 00:45:34,830
Right.
Messy.

799
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,490
Can't imagine when Carter Bell
gets gone in Ecuador.

800
00:45:38,500 --> 00:45:41,480
Geez, that'll be a bloody or big
bloody humdinger.

801
00:45:41,490 --> 00:45:43,850
Management, yeah, Magine is
deploying capital there.

802
00:45:43,860 --> 00:45:45,490
Equators.
It's all happening there.

803
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:48,390
My Dick Ecuador.
It's bloody gonna gonna be

804
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:54,580
renamed Hancock Island.
It's not an island, but anyway,

805
00:45:56,780 --> 00:45:57,840
that's all right.
Where?

806
00:45:57,850 --> 00:46:02,210
Where are we left in this Silver
Corp Adventist saga, Jayda?

807
00:46:03,100 --> 00:46:06,410
So I mean, whenever, whenever I
see these kind of announcements

808
00:46:06,420 --> 00:46:09,830
come out, I try and think, is
this the real genuine reason why

809
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:11,810
the why the deal's falling
apart?

810
00:46:11,820 --> 00:46:15,390
Or is the the buyer just trying
to hide behind some sort of

811
00:46:15,460 --> 00:46:20,210
legal excuse and find a legal
reason why they can bail on the

812
00:46:20,220 --> 00:46:23,850
deal in this instance?
I think it's pretty genuine.

813
00:46:23,900 --> 00:46:26,680
Obviously I don't have great
insight into what goes on at

814
00:46:26,690 --> 00:46:30,180
Silver Court there from a
Chinese company or Adventist,

815
00:46:30,190 --> 00:46:33,080
but if you look at everything
surrounding the deal, copper and

816
00:46:33,090 --> 00:46:34,700
gold, they're they're going
alright.

817
00:46:34,710 --> 00:46:36,730
You can't say the commodities
falling away.

818
00:46:36,790 --> 00:46:40,320
Ecuador is about as stable as it
was two months ago.

819
00:46:40,330 --> 00:46:42,380
Nothing massive.
It's changed on that front.

820
00:46:42,870 --> 00:46:47,220
Unless there's something quite
specific to what Silvercorp has

821
00:46:47,230 --> 00:46:50,690
found out about the project that
they weren't able to see prior

822
00:46:50,700 --> 00:46:53,640
to launching a bid that's really
sort of turned them off.

823
00:46:53,850 --> 00:46:59,410
Then, you know, you, you would
have to think that it's rather

824
00:46:59,420 --> 00:47:02,490
genuine and what they're saying.
And they think that this coming

825
00:47:02,500 --> 00:47:07,390
up has put the project at real
risk and leaves its viability,

826
00:47:07,660 --> 00:47:10,630
you know, on much shaky grounds.
But in the meantime, I just

827
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,030
think it's, it's one for the
lawyers to kind of enjoy.

828
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,930
They can get into it.
They can assess whether the

829
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,190
claim is legitimate, both the
sort of the claim from the

830
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:24,830
environmental group and then
you've got this, the, the claim

831
00:47:24,900 --> 00:47:28,690
of whether this actually
constitute, constitutes a key

832
00:47:28,700 --> 00:47:30,520
condition.
That's one that they're going to

833
00:47:30,530 --> 00:47:33,450
butt heads on, obviously with
companies saying differently on

834
00:47:33,460 --> 00:47:35,880
that.
Then you've also got the break

835
00:47:35,890 --> 00:47:38,860
fee, a $10 million Canadian
break fee.

836
00:47:39,180 --> 00:47:42,540
I'm sure Silvercorp would say
that if one of the conditions

837
00:47:42,590 --> 00:47:46,240
wasn't met, then they don't have
to pay the break fee.

838
00:47:46,250 --> 00:47:50,500
But I'm sure at Adventist on the
other side will fight that one

839
00:47:50,510 --> 00:47:53,840
too.
So just taking a step back and

840
00:47:53,850 --> 00:47:57,220
looking at all of that, you have
to think it's not great for the

841
00:47:57,230 --> 00:48:00,580
project if this, you know,
environmental concern, which

842
00:48:00,590 --> 00:48:03,860
seems to be quite legitimate is
there whoever owns the thing,

843
00:48:03,970 --> 00:48:05,750
it's not gonna be great.
You don't have a lot of

844
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,790
community approval when you've
got parties like that

845
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,670
challenging the the rights to
mine the project so.

846
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:13,750
It's never a good look.
So when you when you're

847
00:48:14,670 --> 00:48:20,060
defending that, it's not it's
not a material adverse event in

848
00:48:20,070 --> 00:48:22,740
some ways as well because the
roads are always your like now

849
00:48:22,750 --> 00:48:27,800
we gotta get gotta get the deal
done because the alternative is

850
00:48:27,810 --> 00:48:30,160
now worse.
So the roads are always, you

851
00:48:30,170 --> 00:48:31,620
might not necessarily be
comfortable.

852
00:48:32,350 --> 00:48:34,860
Yeah, not having the the bid
there and the market sort of

853
00:48:34,870 --> 00:48:36,730
reading through the implications
could be I don't know the

854
00:48:36,740 --> 00:48:39,310
details of this like potentially
great.

855
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:41,040
Yeah, that's that's my
interpretation.

856
00:48:41,310 --> 00:48:44,940
And you can see in the
screenshots that will flash up

857
00:48:44,950 --> 00:48:47,910
just the wording that Adventists
have used.

858
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,260
You know, we'll take all
necessary steps and so on.

859
00:48:51,510 --> 00:48:54,680
There are the the lawyers are
having a bit of fun with it and

860
00:48:54,690 --> 00:48:56,320
they are keen to get the deal
done.

861
00:48:57,010 --> 00:49:00,560
Jayda is a deal junkie.
Seems all over it mate.

862
00:49:00,630 --> 00:49:06,220
J know when yours deal junkie.
As much as Travan Alley, but I

863
00:49:06,230 --> 00:49:07,890
found this one pretty
intriguing.

864
00:49:07,900 --> 00:49:11,600
Yeah, good work about Trav the
Bloody.

865
00:49:12,050 --> 00:49:15,860
You cannot give any more
information about what is going

866
00:49:15,870 --> 00:49:19,630
to happen this quarterly season
in terms of advice, guidance,

867
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:23,990
things to look out for.
You are the quarterly quarterly

868
00:49:24,950 --> 00:49:27,320
clairvoyant.
Mate, I remember last year we

869
00:49:27,330 --> 00:49:30,600
did, we had some fun.
We did some shorts on on

870
00:49:30,770 --> 00:49:32,660
quarterly.
Translations, yeah.

871
00:49:32,670 --> 00:49:35,140
Let's do some more there, right,
You're funny, but no, this time

872
00:49:35,150 --> 00:49:36,960
around I'm just just thought I'd
talk.

873
00:49:36,970 --> 00:49:39,820
I'll keep it brief.
Just a bit of a segment on

874
00:49:39,830 --> 00:49:41,700
themes to look out for this
reporting season.

875
00:49:41,710 --> 00:49:43,300
Like what you know what, what am
I looking out for?

876
00:49:43,310 --> 00:49:45,900
Obviously, like the quarter is
going to come in thick and fast

877
00:49:45,950 --> 00:49:48,840
in relation to the to the June
quarter.

878
00:49:48,910 --> 00:49:51,040
Also subsequent to that in
August, you have a bunch of, you

879
00:49:51,050 --> 00:49:53,070
know, half a year full year
results depending on the

880
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,670
reporting cycle.
I just, there's, there's a bunch

881
00:49:55,680 --> 00:50:00,060
of stuff to look out for some
themes, I reckon, reckon FY25

882
00:50:00,070 --> 00:50:02,770
guidance probably gonna be
disappointing to a lot of

883
00:50:02,780 --> 00:50:04,630
people.
I reckon, you know, I reckon

884
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:06,910
labour costs might be easing,
but you know, energy and

885
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,930
consumables not so cost pressure
still pretty, pretty prevalent.

886
00:50:10,020 --> 00:50:12,290
Why?
Why the FY25 guidance to

887
00:50:12,300 --> 00:50:17,110
disappoint?
I just, I think, I think a lot

888
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:21,290
of a lot of majors have have,
you know, they've got mines

889
00:50:21,300 --> 00:50:23,410
rolling off and they don't have
stuff to backfill.

890
00:50:23,420 --> 00:50:26,690
I think, I think grades are
declining all that sort of

891
00:50:26,700 --> 00:50:28,900
stuff.
I just think versus versus the

892
00:50:28,910 --> 00:50:32,040
models, a lot of that stuff
might not necessarily be

893
00:50:32,110 --> 00:50:35,960
accounted for yet.
Yeah, then.

894
00:50:36,030 --> 00:50:38,740
What about cash?
Cash generation I reckon you

895
00:50:38,750 --> 00:50:41,320
have the energy stocks, coal,
oil and gas that'll be making

896
00:50:41,330 --> 00:50:44,400
great great money.
I reckon even some of the decent

897
00:50:44,410 --> 00:50:47,380
copper names will probably you
know, show show some good cash

898
00:50:47,390 --> 00:50:50,060
flow.
I hope mid cap golds I think

899
00:50:50,070 --> 00:50:53,340
will surprise to the upside just
given the the point gold market

900
00:50:53,350 --> 00:50:55,520
and moderate moderate equity
movements.

901
00:50:55,530 --> 00:50:56,760
I.
Think we've seen that already

902
00:50:56,770 --> 00:50:59,970
with Romulus and Regis, Yep, in
the pre quarterlies.

903
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:01,690
As well.
Yeah, I think lithium's

904
00:51:01,700 --> 00:51:03,500
obviously bloody gonna be under
a lot of stress.

905
00:51:03,510 --> 00:51:05,340
Same.
You know, the one rare earth

906
00:51:05,350 --> 00:51:08,980
producer out there.
But yeah, weather events, mate.

907
00:51:08,990 --> 00:51:10,520
Always on the lookout for
weather events?

908
00:51:10,530 --> 00:51:12,840
OHT yeah.
And look, there has been some

909
00:51:12,850 --> 00:51:14,910
rain.
There's been exploration company

910
00:51:15,070 --> 00:51:18,400
companies not being able to
drill due to rain in the last

911
00:51:18,410 --> 00:51:20,700
month or so.
It's like it's abnormal, but I

912
00:51:20,710 --> 00:51:22,700
reckon there's always fucking
rain in Australia.

913
00:51:22,710 --> 00:51:25,880
So anyway, I just think you
should make that into your base

914
00:51:25,890 --> 00:51:30,080
case that there will be rain.
They're not advised guidance on

915
00:51:30,150 --> 00:51:32,290
the understanding there be no
rain because that's just a silly

916
00:51:32,300 --> 00:51:36,580
way to guide my opinion.
I'd yeah, looking at just maybe

917
00:51:36,590 --> 00:51:39,290
maybe some bloated cost bases in
the small cap end like Allie

918
00:51:39,300 --> 00:51:41,620
talked to might need, you know,
some urgent reassessment to

919
00:51:41,630 --> 00:51:43,960
preserve equity, equity value in
some of those.

920
00:51:44,030 --> 00:51:47,750
What were, you know, I don't
know, couple $100 million

921
00:51:47,990 --> 00:51:50,620
developers, which are now like
$40 million developers.

922
00:51:50,630 --> 00:51:53,050
They've just built in a cost
basis that's not sustainable and

923
00:51:53,060 --> 00:51:57,360
they've got to have to readjust
massively there to the to the

924
00:51:57,430 --> 00:51:59,340
like.
I'm going to talk about some

925
00:51:59,350 --> 00:52:01,220
companies very briefly is what
I'm looking out for.

926
00:52:01,230 --> 00:52:04,120
There's a category of of the
ramp up, ramp up company.

927
00:52:04,130 --> 00:52:08,180
So I'm on ramp up watch with
Paladin and and boss energy in

928
00:52:08,190 --> 00:52:09,880
the uranium.
We're both producing barrels

929
00:52:09,890 --> 00:52:12,530
keen to get as much colour as
possible in, in their

930
00:52:12,540 --> 00:52:17,200
disclosures as they come out.
Adriatic, we talked about in the

931
00:52:17,210 --> 00:52:20,020
past and I'm looking forward to
seeing some more more more

932
00:52:20,030 --> 00:52:22,470
detail now that you've got
another quarter.

933
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,140
And I'm hopeful that the quality
of that all body is going to

934
00:52:25,190 --> 00:52:27,590
going to start translating into
their to their production

935
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,320
numbers there.
They've they've fallen off a

936
00:52:30,330 --> 00:52:32,920
fair bit since they raised
three, but you know, in time, I

937
00:52:32,930 --> 00:52:36,180
think that all body will, will,
you know, come to fruition and

938
00:52:36,270 --> 00:52:37,950
and they'll be the benefit.
Benefits, yeah.

939
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:41,380
Once they're in the better
ground in the ore, away from the

940
00:52:41,390 --> 00:52:44,300
ship, ground in the capital,
actually, it'll start, yeah,

941
00:52:44,310 --> 00:52:47,050
getting a bit of flow about it.
Totally Bellevue.

942
00:52:47,060 --> 00:52:48,720
I mean eyes on eyes on the cash
shot.

943
00:52:48,730 --> 00:52:50,960
So you know, and guidance and
costs and all that.

944
00:52:50,970 --> 00:52:52,740
So it's a big order for them,
like it has been.

945
00:52:54,190 --> 00:52:56,170
This is ARC and this is their
dye quarter.

946
00:52:56,240 --> 00:53:00,350
Yeah, yeah, like cause they're
expected to be making cash now.

947
00:53:00,420 --> 00:53:04,220
Yep, Yep, Yep, lot line town.
So I mean, they're a bit

948
00:53:04,230 --> 00:53:06,070
earlier.
They're not quite yeah, but but

949
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,560
still, you know, keen to go,
keen to see how commissionings

950
00:53:09,570 --> 00:53:11,150
going.
Like what wrinkles are they

951
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:13,100
working through?
Like just can't get some colour

952
00:53:13,110 --> 00:53:14,840
on that.
Oregon, they've given themselves

953
00:53:14,850 --> 00:53:18,150
another three months like in
terms of yeah, they won't have

954
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:21,810
any metrics to release, but
yeah, they're going to.

955
00:53:22,220 --> 00:53:25,050
Yes.
They've got a full quarter now,

956
00:53:25,490 --> 00:53:28,490
so it's probably been, I agree,
Yeah, timed by month.

957
00:53:28,550 --> 00:53:31,960
Yeah, BCI Mineral, so they're
not even I can ramp up yet.

958
00:53:31,970 --> 00:53:35,510
Still construction, but just lol
on that one anyway.

959
00:53:36,450 --> 00:53:38,230
What about the big boys?
Big miners.

960
00:53:38,240 --> 00:53:42,220
So I'll be actually in Rio a bit
boring, but not not expecting

961
00:53:42,230 --> 00:53:43,490
too much out of the ordinary
there.

962
00:53:43,540 --> 00:53:46,410
Kind of I'm kind of excited
about the organic growth which

963
00:53:46,420 --> 00:53:48,730
will sort of come to fruition
over time with with Rio

964
00:53:48,740 --> 00:53:52,550
particularly look at Simondo and
or you talk guy underground

965
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,640
expansion going on there.
I just think I'm just going to

966
00:53:54,650 --> 00:53:56,920
keep watching those numbers and,
and what impact they're having

967
00:53:56,930 --> 00:54:02,070
their FMG, I reckon I like Iron
Bridge in a lot of the, the

968
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:06,130
broker model starts contributing
a fair bit of ramp up into, into

969
00:54:06,140 --> 00:54:09,390
the broken model sort of from,
from this quarter onwards and

970
00:54:09,400 --> 00:54:11,390
stuff.
And I just still kind of have a

971
00:54:11,400 --> 00:54:12,970
hunch that that might
disappoint.

972
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:16,850
Yeah, when we were talking last
night about Gladstone, so long

973
00:54:16,860 --> 00:54:18,360
to look out there and what that
means.

974
00:54:18,370 --> 00:54:21,130
And then there's some word on
the decline about Gabon, which

975
00:54:21,180 --> 00:54:23,300
isn't too positive, but that
doesn't really count for much of

976
00:54:23,310 --> 00:54:24,460
their NAV.
But let's see what they

977
00:54:24,470 --> 00:54:25,830
disclose.
You should get a private

978
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:30,460
investigator onto him.
Say what they're actually up to

979
00:54:31,990 --> 00:54:35,420
Applied by not 32.
Good look.

980
00:54:35,510 --> 00:54:41,310
I mean the, the aluminium
alumina bauxite market has

981
00:54:41,660 --> 00:54:44,260
improved substantially and and
that's a big, big part of their

982
00:54:44,270 --> 00:54:46,230
business.
So I I suspect they'll actually

983
00:54:46,240 --> 00:54:49,390
have a much more cash generative
quarter or even half a year than

984
00:54:49,610 --> 00:54:51,610
we've we've seen in the one
before that.

985
00:54:52,460 --> 00:54:54,470
And I still can't believe
they're bringing Hermosa online.

986
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:56,920
But you know, and let's see what
what other info we could about

987
00:54:56,930 --> 00:55:00,650
Janco as well meetings we could
talk about forever.

988
00:55:00,720 --> 00:55:02,550
It's all about the balance
sheet, whether Chris, you know,

989
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:04,350
wants to talk about it or not,
but it's all about the balance

990
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:07,090
sheet with them.
You think Travis, you think

991
00:55:07,100 --> 00:55:12,080
after all these years he doesn't
know how to run a fucking drives

992
00:55:12,090 --> 00:55:14,160
me inside?
I reckon he's going to keep

993
00:55:14,170 --> 00:55:15,780
getting questions about it,
especially with the bridge

994
00:55:15,790 --> 00:55:19,980
facility on the, on the, on the,
on the whole Rd Northern Star.

995
00:55:19,990 --> 00:55:23,450
I just got a sense that it's not
going to be a good quarter from

996
00:55:23,460 --> 00:55:25,740
them just getting that sort of
sense.

997
00:55:25,750 --> 00:55:29,080
I think there's, you know, a lot
like a lot of scuttlebutt about

998
00:55:29,470 --> 00:55:32,260
production and, and meeting
like, you know, tonnes and Oz

999
00:55:32,270 --> 00:55:33,990
and all that sort of stuff.
But I think that stuff comes at

1000
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:38,030
the expense of, of, of margin
when you when you're pushing

1001
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:40,100
hard there.
And I suspect a lot of any free

1002
00:55:40,110 --> 00:55:41,990
cash flow is obviously just
going into the expansion as

1003
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:42,580
well.
So.

1004
00:55:42,690 --> 00:55:44,990
I got my eyes on John.
Do you wonder if that's grades

1005
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,560
are gonna keep decline?
And that often, like, you know,

1006
00:55:48,570 --> 00:55:51,010
hides a lot of wrinkles in the
rest of the business under such

1007
00:55:51,020 --> 00:55:53,280
a cash cow, right.
But like, you know, yeah.

1008
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,160
And they've brought a lot of
these little satellite assets as

1009
00:55:56,170 --> 00:55:58,160
well recently to try and fill
the mill.

1010
00:55:58,170 --> 00:56:02,500
And on face value, like none of
them really look, you know,

1011
00:56:02,510 --> 00:56:05,960
phenomenal, phenomenal, right?
So that sort of goes to your

1012
00:56:05,970 --> 00:56:08,730
point there as well.
Evolution pretty interested like

1013
00:56:08,740 --> 00:56:11,390
copper and gold is is run a fair
bit.

1014
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:15,850
You know this this half year and
look well they'd, they'd lofty

1015
00:56:15,860 --> 00:56:18,830
FY24 guidance and they kept
maintaining it the whole time

1016
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:20,670
and the street was always saying
you not gonna meet your

1017
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:21,860
guidance, not gonna make your
guidance.

1018
00:56:21,870 --> 00:56:25,610
And, and I, I think, I suspect
they probably they're not going

1019
00:56:25,620 --> 00:56:28,070
to meet their guidance, but I
reckon they'll get closer than

1020
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:31,550
most they're expecting.
And but you know, they already

1021
00:56:31,560 --> 00:56:33,310
said that a weather event or
something so.

1022
00:56:34,720 --> 00:56:36,860
Then I expect much out of North
parks.

1023
00:56:37,170 --> 00:56:41,160
Ohv they did they did an analyst
tour there recently and showed

1024
00:56:41,230 --> 00:56:42,920
everyone N parks and everything
like that.

1025
00:56:42,930 --> 00:56:46,140
I'm, yeah, I'm, I'm keen to look
at it like for sure, yeah, yeah,

1026
00:56:46,190 --> 00:56:47,320
yeah.
Keen to, keen to.

1027
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:50,490
Should make great money on the
copper front the last quarter.

1028
00:56:50,630 --> 00:56:52,200
Yeah.
Yep.

1029
00:56:52,790 --> 00:56:55,560
Like they said, 30% of the
revenue, so.

1030
00:56:56,030 --> 00:56:59,680
Sandfire is, yeah, it's, it's
kind of an exciting one.

1031
00:56:59,690 --> 00:57:02,500
Like I think if you look at just
on a NAV basis, they're probably

1032
00:57:02,510 --> 00:57:06,060
pretty fully valued, but they
remain a standout acquisition

1033
00:57:06,130 --> 00:57:07,850
rocket.
And and like I'd be amazed if

1034
00:57:07,860 --> 00:57:10,610
South 32 hasn't already
articulated their interest.

1035
00:57:10,660 --> 00:57:15,550
I'm like looking to see how
Matteo's costs are trending over

1036
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,010
time.
I mean, ramps getting better,

1037
00:57:17,020 --> 00:57:19,330
hope the costs are coming down.
They're making really good money

1038
00:57:19,340 --> 00:57:21,470
there.
I wanna keep my eye on Black

1039
00:57:21,480 --> 00:57:22,820
Butte over in Montana.
For.

1040
00:57:22,900 --> 00:57:24,810
Yeah, totally.
Well, yeah, hopefully.

1041
00:57:24,820 --> 00:57:26,190
Drill bit to drill in over
there.

1042
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:29,170
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, interesting big quarter

1043
00:57:29,180 --> 00:57:32,430
for White Haven, keen to see,
yeah the contributions of

1044
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,250
Blackwater and Dawnia since
since taking operatorship and

1045
00:57:35,300 --> 00:57:39,840
like there's there's done like
strong expectations for for cash

1046
00:57:39,850 --> 00:57:42,450
generation out of White Haven.
I think it's it's sound, it's

1047
00:57:42,500 --> 00:57:44,870
about an expectation is grounded
in in good analysis.

1048
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:49,810
And yeah, hope hopefully,
hopefully like they'll the the,

1049
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,690
the, the, the performance has
been really good with those

1050
00:57:52,700 --> 00:57:53,930
assets since they've taken
ownership.

1051
00:57:53,940 --> 00:57:58,400
Pilgrim Minerals sold about
cashing unit cost ago just came

1052
00:57:58,410 --> 00:58:00,600
to understand what their future
looks like.

1053
00:58:00,610 --> 00:58:03,440
I mean, I don't know, it's just
a mystery company at the moment,

1054
00:58:03,550 --> 00:58:06,090
but yeah.
And then there's another

1055
00:58:06,100 --> 00:58:09,100
category of companies that that
I've I've, I've got my eye on

1056
00:58:09,110 --> 00:58:10,850
for a different reason.
They're not, they're not the

1057
00:58:10,860 --> 00:58:12,640
ramp up companies.
They're not the majors, but

1058
00:58:12,750 --> 00:58:14,980
they're the the companies are
experiencing balance sheet

1059
00:58:14,990 --> 00:58:17,100
stress.
And it's all about what's their

1060
00:58:17,110 --> 00:58:19,020
balance sheet now?
What's you know, what's their

1061
00:58:19,030 --> 00:58:21,100
body burn rate?
What's the, the leverage and how

1062
00:58:21,110 --> 00:58:23,000
much how much more can they
endure?

1063
00:58:23,570 --> 00:58:25,520
Well, and coke and coal fits
this category.

1064
00:58:25,570 --> 00:58:30,560
Group 6 medals, they ramping up
the, the, the tungsten mind

1065
00:58:30,730 --> 00:58:34,340
Aries is a regular occurrence
there.

1066
00:58:34,410 --> 00:58:37,260
So and then 29 medals when we've
talked about that to death.

1067
00:58:37,330 --> 00:58:40,560
And then throw in Sheffield.
I mean there are different

1068
00:58:40,570 --> 00:58:43,760
because they're their balance
sheets more at the, the, the JV

1069
00:58:43,770 --> 00:58:46,380
level than their, their head
coach, that head code level.

1070
00:58:46,390 --> 00:58:49,920
But you know, we know, I'm just
keen to understand if the, the,

1071
00:58:49,980 --> 00:58:52,990
the ramp up issues they've had a
sort of trending directionally

1072
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:55,500
to, to positive cash flow and
all that sort of stuff as

1073
00:58:55,510 --> 00:58:57,480
opposed to the the hiccups are
facing before.

1074
00:58:57,490 --> 00:58:59,580
Throw Bellevue in that one.
Yeah.

1075
00:58:59,590 --> 00:59:02,040
I mean they're that ramp up on,
but I think their balance sheets

1076
00:59:02,110 --> 00:59:05,100
serviceable.
But yeah, others might have

1077
00:59:05,110 --> 00:59:06,150
more.
But yeah, you're right.

1078
00:59:06,160 --> 00:59:08,830
They they could be in their next
quarter, yeah.

1079
00:59:09,300 --> 00:59:12,050
Yeah, yeah.
Bloody good work, travel exotic.

1080
00:59:12,100 --> 00:59:13,430
Yeah.
I can't wait.

1081
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,450
I can't believe I'm saying this,
but I can't wait for

1082
00:59:15,460 --> 00:59:18,030
quarterlies.
I won't say that during

1083
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:19,660
quarterlies.
Yeah.

1084
00:59:19,740 --> 00:59:21,710
And then quarterlies finish and
then you've got.

1085
00:59:21,780 --> 00:59:23,190
Half yearly.
Four, Yeah.

1086
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:25,110
Four years, which I just don't
have full year.

1087
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:26,590
I just don't understand them
yet.

1088
00:59:26,640 --> 00:59:28,410
Yeah, yeah, you gotta try me on
that.

1089
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:33,630
Yeah.
Bloody accounting shit rod I

1090
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:37,430
bloody good work team.
That was a fucking team effort.

1091
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:38,750
Team effort.
Bob.

1092
00:59:39,340 --> 00:59:42,150
Good footy.
Speaking of just Jay, say you're

1093
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:45,170
about half the team today.
So funny.

1094
00:59:45,180 --> 00:59:47,180
Legendary.
God speaking, a good team went.

1095
00:59:47,190 --> 00:59:51,980
Hard at the footy.
How good is our team of

1096
00:59:51,990 --> 00:59:54,200
partners, I mean.
How goods axis?

1097
00:59:54,290 --> 00:59:56,940
Axis is great mate.
Bloody verifies.

1098
00:59:56,950 --> 00:59:59,600
Great they're finding the stuff.
MMS is great.

1099
00:59:59,610 --> 01:00:02,100
Silverstone's great CR insurance
is great.

1100
01:00:02,160 --> 01:00:04,380
Get what's great.
Season underground is great,

1101
01:00:04,390 --> 01:00:08,280
Catril is great, Spark is great.
WW.

1102
01:00:08,290 --> 01:00:09,770
Waterballs.
Gerard James.

1103
01:00:09,780 --> 01:00:11,580
How great is he?
They're all great.

1104
01:00:11,670 --> 01:00:13,180
Everyone's great.
You're great, Jake.

1105
01:00:13,190 --> 01:00:16,260
Everyone's bloody great, right?
Go Stralia.

1106
01:00:16,490 --> 01:00:20,840
Good footy.
The information contained in

1107
01:00:20,850 --> 01:00:23,640
this episode of Money of Mine is
of general nature only and does

1108
01:00:23,650 --> 01:00:26,400
not take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1109
01:00:26,490 --> 01:00:28,700
or needs of any particular
person.

1110
01:00:28,750 --> 01:00:31,810
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1111
01:00:31,820 --> 01:00:34,890
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1112
01:00:34,900 --> 01:00:38,530
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.