Oct. 3, 2024

Is Ganfeng Bearish Pilbara Minerals?

We kick off the show with a chat about the ~$270m block trade in Pilbara Minerals, with Ganfeng said to be involved, before jumping into Xanadu Mines and their big copper play in Mongolia. To wrap up we touch on the Paladin – Fission Uranium deal which is stalling at the final hurdle.

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(0:00:00)Introduction

(0:01:33)Is Ganfeng bearish PLS?

(0:16:31)Should we get interested in Xanadu?

(0:38:14)Will PDN-FCU fall at the last hurdle

1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,040
Righto Bunny Bonners Thursday
Special big going on today,

2
00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:06,120
boys.
Some big cash getting changed

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:08,880
hands at Pilbara.
Holy Snapp and Dutchie, you boys

4
00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:12,160
are going into a behemoth of a
freaking copper gold project as

5
00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:13,400
well.
Yeah, very.

6
00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,120
Interesting.
It's an interesting part of the

7
00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,640
world, yeah.
And it's a name there not too

8
00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:19,480
many people really know or care
about.

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00:00:19,480 --> 00:00:21,960
But yeah, it doesn't mean that
we're not interested, Maddie.

10
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They'll care after today, Trav,
because if you care, everyone

11
00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:26,040
cares.
And the you deal.

12
00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:28,120
Look what Look what happened
with Sierra, Ruta and I.

13
00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,320
Still know what it is delisted
today so there's like it was

14
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,360
complete.
People cared for a bit.

15
00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:35,920
It'll go back to no one cares
about.

16
00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:38,640
That you're gonna touch on the
big fission power.

17
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,680
Yeah, very open ended.
Nothing provided there, but

18
00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,320
there's there's just a bit going
on in that deal and whether it

19
00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:48,240
will happen.
Oh bloody, who knows, The thing

20
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,440
that will happen, and probably
already has happened this week

21
00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:54,440
is probably MMS should have
secured open pit mining contract

22
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,560
'cause we bloody we throw it out
there to the companies that

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00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,120
they're right, they're
available, they're ready to go,

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00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,160
they're ready to start moving
dirt and start making your

25
00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:06,720
money, whether it's for a bloody
contract or AJV arrangement.

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And I I assume their phone's
been going off the hook this

27
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,920
week, but doesn't mean you still
can't call them.

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Mattie, you, you put it out to
the companies, I reckon you put

29
00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,160
it out to the shareholders to
put pressure on the companies to

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00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,480
be like, hey, you, you got, you
got approval to minister and why

31
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,080
are you just sitting on it and
minister right there.

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00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,240
They got the fleet like after.
The fundies we've interviewed

33
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:28,200
that are like on the register of
these small companies bloody put

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the boot in and tell them to get
MMS, mine and the dirt straight

35
00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,800
away.
Every cash is good for everyone.

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00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,160
So boys, what is going on with
Pilbara?

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Big chunky block trade today and
mate, yeah, to be honest I

38
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didn't stupidly didn't even know
this mob was a shareholder, but

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I do now, thank you very much.
Now you know.

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00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:49,560
Yeah, I, I forgot to be honest
too.

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So no, no, no worries at all,
Maddie.

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But there's a, there's a back
story, right?

43
00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:54,160
It's actually a pretty
interesting story.

44
00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:59,360
So AFR they reported that a
giant $271,000,000 block trade

45
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,560
of Pilgrim Minerals was being
fished out yesterday.

46
00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:07,200
That represents a nearly nearly
3% interest in the, in the stock

47
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,240
of the, you know, lithium miner,
which still has like a healthy

48
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,800
$10 billion market cap.
Here's the bit that was really

49
00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:17,040
interesting to me in the article
that Straight Talk put up says

50
00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,040
the trade was under a 4%
discount to the $3.31 last

51
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,480
close.
Forces said the block trade was

52
00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:26,040
a secondary share sale stemming
from an equity colour

53
00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:31,360
transaction for China's Ganfeng,
which owns 5.7% of Pilbara.

54
00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,000
Secondary share sales stemming
from an equity colour

55
00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:38,280
transaction is.
I spent my morning figuring out

56
00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:41,240
the mechanics of how an equity
colour transaction happens.

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00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:43,360
Why is there a block trade
anyway?

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00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,680
What did you find out?
If it's, if it, if it's it took

59
00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:48,400
me water up my head around it.
But I think I kind of get the

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00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,600
mechanics now.
But basically Ganfing have owned

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00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,280
stock in Pilbara dating all the
way back to 2017.

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00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,520
That 5.7% stake has been like
basically the same shareholding

63
00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:00,840
at least for like the last four
years in Pilbara.

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00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:07,040
As early as May 2023 I found a
Ganfing release where they talk

65
00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:10,360
about their trading approach and
it explicitly talks about

66
00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:12,440
potentially using these equity
colours.

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00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:14,880
I'll read this bit out.
It says the trading approaches

68
00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:17,680
include but are not limited to
utilising derivatives portfolios

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00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,640
such as a colour position to
protect the value of shares,

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00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,760
such as the shares of Pilgrim
Minerals held by the company.

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00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:28,320
The derivatives that the company
will trade involve both offshore

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00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,400
and over the counter contracts.
The counter parties for the

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00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,440
company's derivatives trading
will be limited to financial

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00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,680
institutions with prudent
operations and sound credit

75
00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,800
ratings.
So if, if Ganfing has has been

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00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,480
using these, these colours,
like, because I found that that

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00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,840
release was like 2023 and so
over a year ago, but I don't, I

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00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,600
don't know if there's any
indication that they've ever

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00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:48,880
used these kinds of colours
before.

80
00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,120
In fact, kind of today might,
might actually be the first time

81
00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,200
that we've actually kind of seen
this, this happened by them.

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But you know, but, but it does
pose a bit of a question like

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00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:00,800
what's with the block trade,
right?

84
00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,680
If, if you're using on
derivatives and options and all

85
00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,960
that sort of stuff, why does it
involve a block trade?

86
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:07,280
There's a secondary part of
that.

87
00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,720
And before I answer that
question, there's one other

88
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,480
detail that's kind of worthy of
of pointing out to that really

89
00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,000
caught my eye and that's the
fact that the AFR article says

90
00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,880
it was at a 4% discount to last.
And normally when you see these

91
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,720
block trades, they're kind of
priced with a bit more of a

92
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,400
discount than a 4%.
Remember the FMG 1 was like, you

93
00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:27,480
know, a fair bit more than that.
And FMG is a bigger company than

94
00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:28,440
the.
Spartan one.

95
00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,520
That was probably more than 4%.
Yeah, I.

96
00:04:30,840 --> 00:04:33,080
Think, yeah, I mean Spartan's a
much smaller company, but but

97
00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,280
FMG is like, you know, like much
bigger than Pilgrim.

98
00:04:36,280 --> 00:04:37,800
I think there was like a six odd
percent one.

99
00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,280
It was all set out in stages,
depending on how much interest

100
00:04:40,280 --> 00:04:41,280
there was in these things.
Yeah.

101
00:04:41,280 --> 00:04:43,040
Yeah, so the 4% really caught my
eye.

102
00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,160
And there's even like you got
Bloomberg, you can find this

103
00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,000
thing called the TCA general
impact model.

104
00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:53,160
That's like a on a theoretical
kind of transaction cost impact

105
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,600
model, which can be used to sort
of help price block trades of

106
00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,200
these large, large caps.
It's essentially kind of like

107
00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:01,640
modelling what, what the
transactional cost impact you

108
00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,960
would have by selling kind of X
percent of a stock that has, you

109
00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:08,280
know, why, why volume or
liquidity or whatever like that.

110
00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:10,000
What what I've been told by
someone who actually has a

111
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:11,920
Bloomberg Terminal, because I
don't Bloomberg, if you want to

112
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:12,880
give me one, I'll take it.
Got.

113
00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:17,640
The cable drug in the car.
Is that the the TCA model shows

114
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,080
that the the market impact
should be 10 negative 10%, but

115
00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,480
the blocks down at a 4%
discount, which which I'm trying

116
00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,120
to figure out these mechanics.
I was like, that's, that's a bit

117
00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,760
of a discrepancy.
All right, so on game Fang, what

118
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,080
what's the kind of deal with
these equity colours?

119
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:35,120
What did you find out a bit more
and what are they actually doing

120
00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:39,160
in in the scenario?
An equity collar is a a trading

121
00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,520
strategy that involves options
that Ganfeng has used to protect

122
00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,240
their downside.
Is the easiest way to think of

123
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,680
it.
A typical collar for for someone

124
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,400
who who owns stock and Ganfeng,
they own stock it it and they've

125
00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,160
just watched the share price go
up a lot.

126
00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:58,400
What you do in a, in a collar is
you would, you would sell a

127
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,840
bunch of out of the money call
options and simultaneously buy

128
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,920
out of the money put options.
And it's a kind of, you can

129
00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,480
think of it as like a bit of a,
a bearish to neutral strategy

130
00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:10,400
that you can employ.
Your, your, your loss is limited

131
00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:14,480
because you know, the, the put
options protect that you've got,

132
00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:15,960
you know, protection to the
downside there.

133
00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,520
But your upside is also now
limited because you, you sold

134
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,320
call options and you have to pay
the other side of that.

135
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:26,400
If if the price climbs, you
know, into the, into the, into

136
00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,480
the payout there.
It's the name colour.

137
00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:32,360
Colour a true a true colour is
kind of you know is is is doubt

138
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,760
and neutral but like if if you
are confused, I don't blame you

139
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:38,120
and don't worry too much.
This is like this is wacko shit

140
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:39,120
that.
Really end up if you're

141
00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:45,560
confused.
You like, you don't really have

142
00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:47,600
to know about this stuff.
It really happens in our world

143
00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,680
and you know, the like ASX
stocks don't even have a real

144
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,720
options market like you can get
in the in the US.

145
00:06:55,840 --> 00:06:58,800
But even even options of this
scale, like the the the quantity

146
00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,760
of this you, you basically need
an investment bank to to write

147
00:07:01,840 --> 00:07:04,080
the product, or in this case
multiple investment banks

148
00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,960
because you know, like the
liquid options markets don't

149
00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,680
don't don't even cut it for but
this sort of size.

150
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,040
It's bespoke, right?
Super.

151
00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,560
Bespoke gang Fang going to the
investment bank saying yeah, I

152
00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,560
want to do this.
That means to execute the trade

153
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,560
like, you know, they, they've in
this case, they've lent on both

154
00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,840
of Bank of America, B of A and
Morgan Stanley together, those

155
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,720
investment banks, they use the
balance sheet to underwrite the

156
00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:31,320
other side of the trade for, for
Ganfang, they'd make these kind

157
00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,920
of synthetic instruments and,
and they price them for Ganfang

158
00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,200
to enter into.
And in in this case, because

159
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:41,880
Ganfang has has bought an out of
the money put option as part of

160
00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,120
that colour, Morgan Stanley and
B of A they they don't they want

161
00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:48,000
to protect their own kind of
downside.

162
00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:52,840
And and in the case that Hilbro
stock sufficiently falls, they

163
00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,440
need a way to hedge that out.
The process of the underwriter

164
00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,400
being the banks to actually
hedge out their exposure in the

165
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,560
case that they're on the hook
because people share price fell

166
00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:06,760
too much involves them selling
Pilbara stock today.

167
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,440
Well, hence the block trade.
The block trade is actually the

168
00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,400
banks selling Pilbara stock.
This is a, a weird one to wrap

169
00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,120
your head around, but this, this
block trade of the 82,000,000

170
00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:19,480
shares that's been done, that's
being done by the underwriters

171
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,080
and they've borrowed the stock
from Ganfeng.

172
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,680
It's Ganfeng stock the banks
have borrowed and the banks are

173
00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,680
placing it out of that 4%
discount, which is why it's a

174
00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,000
bit tighter than you'd expect if
it was a true block trade.

175
00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,960
They do this to hedge out their
own downside exposure.

176
00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:36,000
Because if, if, if Hilbert share
price fell too much, Ganfeng

177
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,880
could could, you know, they're,
they're put now in the money in

178
00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,480
the process of that they've got
the right to sell their stock to

179
00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,600
the underwriter.
So their underwriter wants to

180
00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,040
sell it today so that their,
their, their own kind of, you

181
00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,520
know, hedging situation is, is
neutralised.

182
00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,840
So did you say that they've put
it out on gang fan of like done

183
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,080
what insta does?
They've borrow like put it out

184
00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,880
on borrow like a a fucking
institution would if someone

185
00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:02,800
wanted to short their stock.
It it's but then.

186
00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:05,080
They put it out on borrow, but
then the bank's selling it.

187
00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,440
It's it's not like it's put out
on, but it is it is it is, it is

188
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,280
their stock that is sold been
put out.

189
00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,720
And it's instead of it being
like another Insto that's short

190
00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,640
selling, it's actually the
underwriter, the bank that's

191
00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,200
done it for them because they're
trying to hedge out their

192
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,400
potential exposure because
they've created the product

193
00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,840
that's allowed protection for
game thing.

194
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:30,240
So is game thing going to end up
with to 250 million bucks less

195
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,760
amount of stock in Pilbara by
the end of this?

196
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,520
No, no, it's not necessarily.
It's just, but they still have a

197
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:40,200
beneficial interest in the 5.7%.
Yeah, because they can.

198
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,480
They can call that back at any
time from, from, from the banks.

199
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:46,200
There you go.
OK.

200
00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:47,440
So they're not selling them
down?

201
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,360
No, Well, they they.
There's not yet.

202
00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,440
They there, there's a couple of
interpretations of this, right?

203
00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,800
And I think like, that's why I
wanted to go deep in the

204
00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,960
mechanics because I'm trying to
figure out what is gang thing's

205
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,280
view here?
Are they, are they bearish

206
00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:02,760
lithium?
Are they bearish Pilgrim

207
00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:05,000
minerals?
Are they just, or do they

208
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,960
themselves just need the cash?
And I think there's, there's two

209
00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:11,840
ways to interpret this.
The, the 1st and more likely way

210
00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:16,160
to interpret this, I think is I
think gang thing like on their

211
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,000
own kind of books, they, they
record their stake in Pilgrim

212
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,880
Minerals kind of mark to market,
which, which means it comes up

213
00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,360
as a, as a loss or a profit
depending on what Pilgrim share

214
00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:27,480
price sort of did.
And you know, that could be

215
00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,320
problematic in in and of itself.
So they're, they're just trying

216
00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:31,920
to hedge the impact of that
because it's, you know, pretty

217
00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:34,080
substantial loss on their kind
of last reporting period.

218
00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:39,120
But also Ganfang still has a
fair whack of their own CapEx

219
00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,480
ahead of them.
There's still more ahead with

220
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,720
Gulamina.
Practical completion was

221
00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,080
expected 30th of September,
which is a couple of days ago,

222
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,120
but there's still more capital
outlay Gulamina ahead before

223
00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,400
it's sort of cash flow positive
combined that too.

224
00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,880
I think they've still got a fair
whack of CapEx, you know, a

225
00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,440
project in Argentina as well.
And with like depressed lithium

226
00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,560
prices, cash matters.
So the transaction in a weird

227
00:11:02,560 --> 00:11:05,520
way, it actually frees up some
cash for gang thing.

228
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,200
It's a bit wacky to wrap your
head around here because gang

229
00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,480
thing has sold call options.
Selling call option actually

230
00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:14,000
gives you income.
They've also bought put options.

231
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,280
And so buying the put options
isn't you're, you're paying out

232
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:18,760
there.
But the mechanism which gives

233
00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,040
them cash today is the fact that
there's this loan arrangement

234
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:23,480
with the underwriter of the bank
where you know, they've lent

235
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,560
their shares to the bank, bank
sold them.

236
00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:28,680
But in exchange, Ganfeng gets
gets a bunch of cash today as

237
00:11:28,680 --> 00:11:30,440
well.
So there's, there's basically

238
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,800
cash or capital freed up the
Ganfeng to allocate to the, you

239
00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:37,080
know, CapEx objectives and plans
that they do have ahead of them

240
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,480
at some of these projects while
the lithium markets are

241
00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:40,600
depressed.
Yeah.

242
00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:44,720
So it's it's the same as any any
mob that lends out their stock

243
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:48,640
when they to be sure that they
get the money.

244
00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,680
Yeah, there's, yeah, yeah,
there's, there's mechanically

245
00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:53,040
kind of a similar thing going on
here.

246
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,200
Yes, yeah.
Sorry, I've got that wrong.

247
00:11:55,880 --> 00:12:00,280
When someone takes when a
shorter activates a short

248
00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:01,920
position, they get the money,
yes.

249
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:04,680
Yeah, not the person that
borrows it out, lends it out.

250
00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:07,840
They just get the yes premium.
On yes, yes.

251
00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,520
Right.
There's another interpretation

252
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,000
which oh, I, I fleshed out
first, but I think, you know,

253
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,680
I'm sort of coming back to and
think this is less likely.

254
00:12:17,680 --> 00:12:20,440
But let's just entertain, you
know, this other theory for a

255
00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:22,840
moment too.
Gun thing could be pretty

256
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:26,960
nervous about the potential
downside, more downside in the

257
00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,800
value of Pilbara stock.
And they could have used this

258
00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:34,640
bouncing sort of lithium price
to, to hedge edge here, which is

259
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,640
kind of clever move if you think
there's more pain on the

260
00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:40,280
horizon.
And look, if, if, if Ganfeng

261
00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,680
thinks there's more downside
from, from Pilbara, from here,

262
00:12:42,680 --> 00:12:44,400
What like why, why would they
think that?

263
00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,640
We talked about this little kind
of thing in our conversation

264
00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:50,960
with YJ, which we put up on
Friday last week.

265
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,560
Basically, Ganfeng, they are,
they are best in business for,

266
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:58,720
for converting even crack spot
into, you know, high grade kind

267
00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:00,800
of battery material.
They've notoriously dealt with

268
00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:05,200
Minrez's, you know, Marion spot,
which is, you know, pretty,

269
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,200
pretty low, low, low grade kind
of product.

270
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:08,640
That's what gone that they put
out there.

271
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,000
I've plucked this kind of cost
curve from S&P.

272
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,760
So I'm, I'm sure there's a few
issues with it and people point

273
00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:16,520
out why it's wrong in a lot of
different ways.

274
00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:19,120
But just kind of take it with a
grain of salt for now, because

275
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,600
this is the S and PS cost curve
for 2025.

276
00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,360
And I wanted to point out these,
these are, I've highlighted the

277
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,720
S and PS highlighted before
Lithium projects producing in

278
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,280
2025 that Yanfeng actually has
an equity interest in.

279
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,960
I've added labels to the ones
that Marion and Gulamina on

280
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,680
there just to sort of illustrate
things because Gulamina is the

281
00:13:40,680 --> 00:13:44,000
interesting 1.
You know, like I said, Gulamina

282
00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:47,800
practical completion was
expected for that project on the

283
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,080
30th of September per kind of
the latest announcement I could

284
00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,080
get out of Leo Lithium talking
about it.

285
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:57,400
And that's intriguing, right?
Because Gangfang gets 100% of

286
00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,840
the production Gulamina and
other self, I wouldn't be

287
00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:05,520
surprised to see, you know, gang
thing eventually get their costs

288
00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,200
from Gulamena to sort of, you
know, and even the kind of lower

289
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:10,200
unit cost.
And then Pilgrim was able to do

290
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:11,280
it.
Pilgrim Gore I just.

291
00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:14,880
So the ore body's phenomenal.
That's why it's like Kathleen

292
00:14:14,880 --> 00:14:17,440
Valley, but an open pit.
Like in terms of the thickness

293
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:19,320
and, and everything.
Well, it's pretty friggin

294
00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:20,880
unreal.
Yeah.

295
00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,800
I wouldn't, you know, I've got
no doubt that the Chinese will

296
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:28,160
have a way to get costs far
lower than, you know, we can

297
00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:29,280
imagine.
Yeah, they're good at that shit.

298
00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,480
So, you know, that's the other
theory is there that that, you

299
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,240
know, maybe gang gang Fang have
have a view on where the lithium

300
00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:40,680
market's going to be for a
period of time.

301
00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:42,800
And then they're looking at
Pilbury stock relative to all

302
00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:43,640
that.
They're looking at looking at

303
00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,120
the cost curve and they're
looking at where, where new

304
00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:47,720
production is coming online, all
that sort of stuff.

305
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,200
Even my gang thing, they
currently take up to 310,000

306
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:58,280
tonnes of of spot from hill
Gangora for for 2024-2025 and 26

307
00:14:58,600 --> 00:14:59,720
and that's their current off
day.

308
00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,640
But but yeah, I think there's a
few different ways you can

309
00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,840
interpret it.
But then you know, the more one,

310
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,800
the kind of yeah, like and maybe
it's a little bit of both.

311
00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,280
Maybe it's a little bit of both
in those theories.

312
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,080
Yeah.
Do you think that do you think

313
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,920
there's any chance that they're
throwing up capital to buy more

314
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,800
of a project?
They they, they did something

315
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:20,800
really recently where they
picked up 30% of an interest in

316
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,240
a projects.
The 15% of an interest in a

317
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:28,080
project any anyway they you
know, yeah, there's a bunch of

318
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,000
different competing objectives,
I'm sure.

319
00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:34,000
And the truth is like on a
multiple basis, Pilbury still

320
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,880
does screen pretty expensive.
Like that's why it's got such a

321
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,520
high short interest that it does
because you're trying back out

322
00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:42,360
the earnings and you're like,
does this make sense?

323
00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:46,280
I don't know.
Do you think that ever trying to

324
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,680
get it past fur?
But do you think that ever buy

325
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,640
more of Mount Marion off Min
res?

326
00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:52,600
I don't think Feb will get
there.

327
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,200
No, because she's about maxed
out now, yeah.

328
00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,760
Yeah, I'd lean towards the the
former rather than the latter,

329
00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:04,400
just freeing up capital to
invest in, in projects have that

330
00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,080
flexibility like that they have
been, you know, smashed on on

331
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,640
kind of all fronts over the past
year.

332
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:10,720
They've got a heated debt in
their own cap structure.

333
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:13,440
It's not like they're, they're
somewhat like a lot of lithium

334
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,640
players, you know, they're, you
know, distressed kind of period

335
00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:19,640
of time.
Yeah, good, good in the weeds

336
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,960
trap.
It even confused the fuck out of

337
00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:23,640
you.
I think I.

338
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,960
Mate, I didn't fit the fuck I
couldn't piece it all together

339
00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,440
until the end anyway.
It's like our back to the start

340
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,640
of the pod.
Very good.

341
00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:35,200
Right Next up, we're going to
talk about an absolutely

342
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,160
freaking huge copper and gold
project in Mongolia that I don't

343
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:40,440
think we've ever talked about
before.

344
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:41,640
Yeah.
I was scratching my head, I

345
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,000
can't remember.
I think maybe a long time ago we

346
00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:45,200
got might have given a
dimension.

347
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,160
Oh no, but just there's never
forget money miners.

348
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,120
Before project gets bloody huge,
it has to be started.

349
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:55,240
That is philosophical.
The first thing you need to do.

350
00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:00,200
You've got a clear land, right?
Exploration, drilling dams

351
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,680
before we get these rigging,
billion tonne resources and

352
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,200
bloody Australian earthworks and
haulage on the team to get it

353
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,240
done, isn't it?
Too right?

354
00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:14,160
You know another earth moving
company does all this stuff, no?

355
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,000
No, the AES.
Yeah.

356
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,200
Oh, they're tied in a EH.
AEH.

357
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,560
And IES, there's a bit of
bloody, there's a bit of mutual

358
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,200
stuff going on here.
You know the only two acronyms

359
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:26,319
you need to know if it starts
with.

360
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,000
AE, it's good.
Yeah.

361
00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:29,920
That's all you need to know.
Look at this bloke.

362
00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:32,200
We we gave Sheamus enough of a
run.

363
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,360
We're going to give this this
follow a run.

364
00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:38,120
The main man of AEH, Reese
Spatolni.

365
00:17:38,360 --> 00:17:42,880
He's when he's not dressed up
like this on the weekend, as you

366
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:47,960
can see he looks like this HD
fitter covered in shit working.

367
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,400
He's bloody mate, he owns it, he
operates the machinery.

368
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,000
He's the man, he's mate, he's
the son of AGL and I've got it

369
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:57,800
on good authority that he was
crushed rock was mixed with his

370
00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:02,000
milk as a child.
He is grew, grew up on dirt and

371
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,960
has now decided to move it.
Bloody shits on Orem pisses gold

372
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,440
Nuggets like he is all over at
this fella.

373
00:18:08,600 --> 00:18:10,560
You need any earthwork job he's
done?

374
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,920
Bloody premium mining post
mining in the great state of WA

375
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:18,320
Give bloody race and the team at
Australian Earthworks and

376
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,600
Haulage a friggin ring.
Good.

377
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,520
Details are in the show notes.
How good?

378
00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,560
How good is this black cheesy?
I trust him to move rock.

379
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:30,360
But he can move rock really
well, funny, beautiful.

380
00:18:30,360 --> 00:18:34,800
So we are talking about how do
you pronounce this Xanadu?

381
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:35,920
Xanadu.
Xanadu.

382
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,000
Xanadu.
That's the closest I've ever got

383
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:39,400
to pronouncing something
correctly.

384
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:45,080
You know the ABBA song we're
playing, What's the next line?

385
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:48,560
It's an old classic movie as
well.

386
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,360
But anyway, what we're talking
about is copper and gold in

387
00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:57,840
Mongolia, like you said, Maddie,
so Mongolia right at the top

388
00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,640
drawer.
So these guys had an

389
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,040
announcement out yesterday which
sort of piqued our interest.

390
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,960
And as you can see, it's been a
a hell of a ride on the on the

391
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,320
spark chart been up and down.
They I had a bit of a deal that

392
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,480
they announced a couple years
ago now and there was a sort of

393
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:15,520
second iteration of that deal
last year.

394
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,080
So we're going to get into the
weeds on all of it.

395
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,240
But firstly, why it's kind of
interesting.

396
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:24,480
So these guys are $100 million
developer out there like like a

397
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:30,920
good few with substantial CapEx
bill, but they have a PFS that

398
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,920
is imminent IE this month and
they have a sort of potential

399
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:36,360
liquidity event.
They've already got an

400
00:19:36,360 --> 00:19:39,080
arrangement with Sage in which
we're going to get into the

401
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:41,720
weeds of later on.
But there's, yeah, there's some

402
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:46,400
key reasons why this one could
to have some action happen in

403
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:48,760
the, in the nearer term rather
than the the later term when you

404
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,640
kind of think of all those other
copper hopefuls out there on the

405
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,800
ASX that just praying for
somebody to come in and scoop

406
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:58,160
them up or help them out.
So let's get into the the

407
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,520
project itself, because I think
this gives the the overview that

408
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:05,920
you kind of need to know to
understand how the the potential

409
00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,400
deal machinations could work.
But I remember about this

410
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:11,880
project, JD is it's, it's like
it's enormous.

411
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:13,760
It's huge, but it's really low
grade.

412
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,880
Yeah, in Mongolia and that's all
I remember.

413
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,480
I.
Always thought of it as like a,

414
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,120
you know, a smaller, not quite
as good.

415
00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,640
Oh you totally.
So they both previously were

416
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,920
part of Turquoise Hill but back
in the day and this one sort of

417
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,840
spun out a decade ago now in
20/20/14.

418
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,880
Turquoise Hill.
Yeah, it sort of sits a couple

419
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:35,280
100 KS away in southern Mongolia
there.

420
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,720
So a scoping study came out in
2022 that was actually an

421
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,680
updated one.
There was one a few years before

422
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,080
that.
The 2022 one was based on a 2021

423
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:48,640
one resource that was 1.1
billion tonnes for 3,000,000

424
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:53,440
tonnes of contained copper and
8,000,000 ounces of gold, about

425
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,880
half of that in the indicated
category.

426
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,520
Then the scoping study from
20/22.

427
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,200
The numbers I'll quote here are
100% basis.

428
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,360
Xanadu at the time owned 76.5%
of the project.

429
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,000
They were talking about an
average annual production of

430
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:14,200
50,000 tonnes of copper and
110,000 ounces of gold, more

431
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,760
than sustaining costs of US
$1.00 a pound.

432
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,040
Obviously netting off the
byproduct credits from the the

433
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:25,760
gold there and an IRR of 20%.
The 30 year mine life NPV using

434
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:29,160
8% discount rate of US $630
million.

435
00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:33,560
So a couple other details that
are important to know is that

436
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:37,800
they were first going to have a
throughput of 15,000,000 tonnes

437
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:39,680
per annum.
That was going to jump up to 30

438
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:45,280
million tonnes per annum CapEx
of just under 700 million US net

439
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,960
revenue, which we'll touch on a
bit later on why it could be

440
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,120
interesting of US $16 billion
with the important price

441
00:21:52,120 --> 00:21:57,880
assumptions of US $4.00 a #
copper and US 1700, yeah, 1700

442
00:21:58,360 --> 00:22:00,520
an ounce.
So they're, they're the kind of

443
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,600
key numbers that you you want to
know from the scoping study.

444
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,160
But obviously it's been a couple
years since then, a lot of

445
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,480
waters gone under the bridge.
They've expanded that resource.

446
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,880
The contained copper is up some
sort of 30 ish percent.

447
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,360
The gold is up to over 9 million
oz contained.

448
00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:18,280
Importantly on the Met side,
they've done a fair bit of work

449
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,400
because they were building in a
scenario with the top sort of 20

450
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:27,080
or 30 metres, about $100 million
of pre strip was just waste.

451
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,520
Essentially, they've been
looking just do a heat leak and

452
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,320
actually make a bit of money
from that as opposed to just

453
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:34,600
being a $100 million liability
the.

454
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:35,640
Other thing that stands out
there.

455
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,440
So it's got some grade in it,
really low grade.

456
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,520
It's not complete waste.
Exactly.

457
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,080
Yeah, yeah, we've got Australian
earthworks and haulage job.

458
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,200
He bothers sounds and I'll move
it.

459
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,360
I don't think it stands out
there mate.

460
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,160
Just on the like those numbers
on the scoping study is, I mean

461
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,720
like a copper is a fair bit
different and the gold price is

462
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,000
a fair bit different today to
what is assumed there.

463
00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:02,320
But but also just the the the
CapEx like it was the scoping

464
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,920
study coming out before Zijin
was was a board because that's

465
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:08,240
right.
Zijin would probably be able to

466
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,320
deliver a project build kind of
like below, whatever your

467
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:15,360
western kind of.
Very very important point are.

468
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:16,960
Able to to construct something
for two.

469
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,480
Yeah, 100%.
You can call that a Western

470
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,680
style CapEx number, which Sage
in, you know, being neighbours

471
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:26,520
and just being operators at
scale.

472
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,000
You know, they've got a heap of
mining operations around the

473
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,160
world if they've done this, you
know, partnered with Ivanhoe in,

474
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,960
in Kamal Kakula and these sorts
of things would be able to

475
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,960
deliver that cheaper than than
sanity would.

476
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,760
Yeah, it's pretty bloody, isn't
it?

477
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,760
Funny looking at these, I think
what was BHP's one they did the

478
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:45,320
long aisles for Bloody what?
Oak.

479
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,800
Damn.
Which in in South Australia,

480
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,120
Yeah, yeah.
Oh dear, like like coming back

481
00:23:50,120 --> 00:23:55,480
at you know this point 3.4%
copper just it might be the

482
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,240
thing now like it's.
The scale game.

483
00:23:57,360 --> 00:24:00,840
Yeah, yeah, so it's and look
pretty unbelievable to get

484
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:05,000
frigging half a billion tonnes
of indicated material that is

485
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,480
freaking huge reeks of a Cadrill
standard.

486
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,840
Sure it does Martha Bill
indicated bloody.

487
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:14,080
I can confirm that Cadrill
didn't drill this mine out, but

488
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,280
it's possible of leverage
someone of a similar standard

489
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,240
might have.
They leverage their IP because

490
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,720
you're trying to Yeah, I.
Think they were consulting over

491
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,560
the phone to Mongolia.
So yeah, it's don't know.

492
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,640
There's no no bloody limitation
to the bloody capability of K

493
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,480
drill.
So because if I had a resource

494
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,560
like that in my backyard, I
would make the correct life

495
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:38,680
decision to call Drew Harvey and
call Ron O'Sullivan and get

496
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,440
bloody cadre to start pumping
Arsene diamond holes in there

497
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,840
ready to go also ready to go for
a contract right now.

498
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,720
So bloody don't don't be a
snoozer and be late.

499
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,240
Call them right now.
Drovers numbers in the show

500
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,040
notes.
You know the safety standards

501
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:55,920
will be elite.
You know they'll punch the

502
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,000
metres in the most efficient way
possible.

503
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:03,800
You know the sample management
is 6 star level above 5 star.

504
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,480
They're like one of those hotels
that to get a six star rating

505
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,120
and not many of it 7/7 right.
Yeah, J and you know the

506
00:25:11,120 --> 00:25:13,760
resource will be bloody actual
indicated because.

507
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,800
Yeah, straight away, Yeah,
straight away.

508
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,880
It's absolute no brainer.
So JJ, what about the Z Gin

509
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,000
side?
What is going on there?

510
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,600
All right, so.
Like I said, Maddie Z Gin really

511
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,160
interesting base.
I have to sort of double check

512
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:32,240
that there are $100 billion in
Aussie terms market cap company.

513
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,240
They're a big, big, big beast.
Yeah, nearly as big as a bit

514
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,680
smaller than Rio.
Yeah, yeah. 100 Bill Aussie.

515
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,960
Aussie, yeah, good, good.
Bit smaller than Rio but firmly

516
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,000
one of the the biggest miners in
the world, no doubt about it.

517
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,360
So they are 19.4% shareholders
now.

518
00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:53,680
They first took a 9.9% stake in
2022 and they listed out this

519
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:55,960
sort of staged investment
process.

520
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,520
It's going to be a sort of
second and third phase that

521
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,480
would follow that would sort of
see them logically lift to just

522
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:07,120
under 20%, and that happened.
They went to 19.4% in early

523
00:26:07,120 --> 00:26:10,160
2023.
Which Ferb had to approve as

524
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:11,320
well, by the way.
Yeah.

525
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,160
Importantly, Ferb approved that.
So in March 23, at that point,

526
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:19,640
they created a 5050 JV which
held what was previously the

527
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:23,440
Xanadu State.
So that holds 76.5% of the

528
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,800
project.
Z Gene put in US $35 million

529
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:31,360
into the joint venture that was
to fund the PFS as well as some

530
00:26:31,360 --> 00:26:34,320
exploration which would take 18
months, which kind of brings us

531
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,320
to today.
Xanadu would remain the operator

532
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,240
during the PFS phase.
And at the end of that 18 month

533
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,640
plan, Z Gen would become the
operators, which again is where

534
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:45,840
we're kind of at today.
And this came at a pretty

535
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,320
important time initially in 2022
for Xanadu.

536
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,040
They were in the doldrums a bit.
They announced the deal at a 30%

537
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,160
premium to what the stock price
was at.

538
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:58,760
So that was sort of circa 3%.
Deal came in around 4%.

539
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,680
So it was a bit of a pick me up
for the stock at the time that

540
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,120
went on for a bit of a run.
Make such a different equation.

541
00:27:05,120 --> 00:27:09,160
You go from being like a micro
cap that's got a project with a

542
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:11,440
giant CapEx and you've got no
way to actually find it.

543
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,520
All of a sudden, you know you
now have a funding partner

544
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,680
that's serious. 100%, So we
should touch on yesterday's

545
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,280
announcement before we get into
where they kind of go from here.

546
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,840
So the update yesterday says
they're in the final stages.

547
00:27:24,120 --> 00:27:26,520
You can expect the PFS by mid
October.

548
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,880
So in a couple weeks time.
Cash is running a bit low.

549
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,640
There's about 5,000,000 bucks
within Xanadu, another further 5

550
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,240
million within the joint
venture.

551
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,920
They're planning for a BFS,
which is kind of interesting

552
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,240
because the the earlier wording
gave an indication that they

553
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:42,840
might not even really be
considering.

554
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,440
They might just go straight from
BFS to, you know, kind of

555
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,600
construction engineering work
and and yeah, just power

556
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,400
straight ahead like season.
By all accounts that came to

557
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,640
press on at some speed.
You know, the operator

558
00:27:56,640 --> 00:28:00,200
transition is underway.
So the GM and chair of the joint

559
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,240
venture board is now Zeigen's
nominee.

560
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,120
So this is a sort of four person
board, two people from each

561
00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:08,760
company.
But importantly, any new budget

562
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,040
needs to be jointly agreed.
So you can't have the kind of

563
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:18,080
classic trap where the major
money, the major minor can just

564
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:21,400
flush out the junior by just
spending more with a commitment

565
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,160
that the junior can't even meet.
So that that's quite an

566
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,080
important detail that shouldn't
be glossed over.

567
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,160
Totally.
And heck, in that same part of

568
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,480
the world there was yeah, I
think, you know, Turquoise Hill

569
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,360
would would, would remember a
lot how challenging it is when

570
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,320
yeah, you've got a a major mind
with the the money and the

571
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,960
challenges that come with being
a minority joint venture party

572
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,680
party in the dynamics too, just.
Drag you along the floor?

573
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:45,880
Yeah.
Who's money?

574
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,000
Who says money doesn't buy
happiness?

575
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,360
Though all righty.
So this it lays out the

576
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,600
situation where we are kind of
at now today.

577
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,840
So in March of 23, they put
forward 3 potential ways for

578
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,360
this Zegin Xanadu relationship
to advance.

579
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,240
And the sort of wording is post
the PFS coming out, Xanadu has

580
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:10,440
the following options.
Option A, they can fund 50% of

581
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:11,880
the construction bill
themselves.

582
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:17,080
Option B, they can sell their
50% to Zegin for US $50 million.

583
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:22,280
Option C, they can sell half of
their interest to to Zegin. the

584
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:29,320
US $25 million plus A0 cash loan
carry for the remaining 25% to

585
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:33,640
commercial productions.
I they can get Zegin to give

586
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,080
them debt to fund them through
so that they don't have to stump

587
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,560
up and raise it to their equity,
and that would.

588
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:41,080
Be pay back with free cash flow
when it comes.

589
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,440
Exactly.
Now there's sort of 1/4 option

590
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,720
here, which is not mentioned for
Xanadu to look at, which is do a

591
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,360
deal with a third party or get
creative in how they can try and

592
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,520
maximise the value for their
shareholders.

593
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,480
And this is where I think we
should kind of start, start a

594
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,400
bit of a discussion to start
with.

595
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,800
I think option B, selling your
stake for US $50 million would

596
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,320
be a bit of a travesty.
I think the the company should

597
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,920
just come out and say that is
not what we're going to do.

598
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,880
There's a whole lot more value
in this project than just giving

599
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:15,520
it to to Zesian for $50 million.
So it was a good thing at the

600
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,400
time when nobody liked the
stock, but a bit of a, a bit of

601
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,800
a flaw under it, you know, gave
them a bit of support.

602
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,960
But I don't think that is what
they should look at the

603
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:29,120
renegotiation angle.
I guess option D there is a kind

604
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,800
of interesting 1 and I want to
play a little snippet from Colin

605
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,520
Moorhead, the the managing
director of the company when he

606
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,280
spoke about this in a podcast
earlier this year.

607
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,280
How other options are, you know,
for us to go and fund our own

608
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,040
half?
You know that that can be done,

609
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,160
but it's not really our
preference or or to do some sort

610
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,680
of other deal with the gym to
take the project.

611
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,360
Yeah, they're, they're at a,
they're at a junction, right

612
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:56,400
where this is, this is kind of
game time.

613
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,440
Like, you know, PFS is coming
out so that Xanadu's in charge

614
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:00,840
of the PFS.
They put the number out.

615
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,280
The number, the number in the
PFS is like, we're going to be

616
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,840
big, big kind of part of the
negotiations.

617
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,720
And so there'll be some
gamesmanship going on there.

618
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,360
But it's super like there's an
obvious deal that happens and

619
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,040
that's where like, you know,
Asian acquires the other the

620
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:20,680
other half of the JV from, from
Xanadu or just acquires Xanadu

621
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,440
outright at the premium or
whatever it is.

622
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,600
Yeah, there's, there's, there's,
can you get competitive

623
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:26,960
attention?
It's tricky because you've got a

624
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:30,520
20% more nearly a 20%
shareholder there in, in if

625
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,200
there was any change of control
that is ZG in owning like, yeah,

626
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,760
19.4% of the stock in, in
Zanadu.

627
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,640
It's kind of no one else kind of
comes to play normally in those

628
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,120
situations unless you did
another strategic placement to

629
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,040
someone else at a premium.
That is a very interesting

630
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,280
point.
Could they do another deal at a

631
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,560
premium with, I don't know, an
IGO, someone like that to try

632
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:52,360
and.
Create different.

633
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,840
To try and create a bit of
tension and I had to do a bit of

634
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:57,240
digging into this one and they
they.

635
00:31:57,240 --> 00:31:59,320
Have the full right to like
Zijin.

636
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,880
Can Zijin?
Do they have any power over

637
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,560
them?
So I went back to the 2022

638
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,800
announcement and found in the
footnotes some wording around

639
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:08,840
this.
The company, being Xanadu, has

640
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,800
granted Zijin the right to a
reasonable opportunity to

641
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,880
participate in future capital
raisings.

642
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,440
A reasonable opportunity.
So that gets very legally and

643
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,960
it's not.
It's not a top up, right?

644
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,160
That's not yeah.
Yeah, I you'd have to be a

645
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,000
lawyer to sort of fight that one
out.

646
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:25,920
I don't, I don't know, get
loose.

647
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:27,360
Yeah.
Because they say, you know,

648
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:31,440
subject to the limitations and
conditions, they would give them

649
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,280
very short notice in which
decision would have to reply,

650
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:40,120
yada yada yada.
So OK, yeah, I don't that that

651
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:44,640
seems like a a hard one to kinda
get done and stay within the

652
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:46,080
bounds of the agreement.
But who?

653
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,240
How many?
Mobs are going to be find it

654
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,160
palatable to go into bed with
Seijin as well.

655
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,440
No, Yeah, well get.
That enough to limit.

656
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,920
You're not quite going into bed,
but like, let's say you did a

657
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,880
strategic placement at a
premium, then Seijin, I now know

658
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:05,000
that they have to pay up.
So you, you basically you kind

659
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,480
of just get a short term trade
on it or, or you go into bed,

660
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,640
but you have to be open, open
minded too.

661
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,400
Let's say if you can sort of
have good line of sight on to

662
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:16,720
getting an uplift within sort of
a relatively short amount of

663
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,520
time, that's why you would kind
of do it.

664
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,800
I'm not necessarily thinking
another mining house to to come

665
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,000
in and buy a stake in the
business because that that gets

666
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:28,560
a bit difficult.
It's not that like it's not that

667
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,080
bad if you, I mean if you think
about it like if, if you don't

668
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,400
have to be operator of it, but
you get the copper exposure like

669
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,320
heaps of people on copper
exposure and they don't have to

670
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,560
do any work.
And what else is Zagin like?

671
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,800
Because looking at that option C
like where it would sell half it

672
00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:48,600
said as Zagin and pretty much
provide an IRU that obviously

673
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:52,200
shows how bullish Zagin are on
copper lot.

674
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,080
They're they're obviously
wanting the copper exposure.

675
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,360
They've obviously got it with
Ivanhoe.

676
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,760
They produced over a million
tonnes of copper last year.

677
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:00,800
They're one of the biggest
copper producers on the planet.

678
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,160
Yeah.
So it'd be wonderful.

679
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,360
And and now it's a link back to
the old Freeland as well with

680
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:09,880
Turquoise Hill and everything.
But do you think like Ivanhoe

681
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,800
would be interested in something
like that with the Sage in

682
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,199
existing partnership?
It did pop in my mind.

683
00:34:16,199 --> 00:34:18,520
I'm just not as close with with
Ivanhoe.

684
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,239
I know they've got a lot on
their plate and like we've sort

685
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,960
of said with other miners
focusing on getting what you've

686
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,840
got on your plate right,
expanding, that is where you're

687
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,000
gonna see the most amount of
value uplift.

688
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,040
And you know, especially
considering KK now at 600,000

689
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:34,719
tonnes per annum.
It's like, yeah, totally

690
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,360
different quality asset to this
one, yeah.

691
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,040
Yeah.
Brio's in the area you've got.

692
00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,360
It's that they used to be called
Poly metal, and they've just

693
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,239
left Russia and now they have.
Yeah, Now every name's a solid

694
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:50,760
core.
And then go and ham on

695
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,679
Kazakhstan.
It's all right next door.

696
00:34:52,679 --> 00:34:55,280
Yeah, maybe.
It's nearby.

697
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:56,440
They want, yeah.
It's got to be.

698
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,040
Yeah.
So one of the other things to

699
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,040
raise again, which you
mentioned, the sort of Western

700
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,280
versus Eastern, if you like
CapEx build, that'll become a

701
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,840
part of the negotiation.
And it's a, it's a good thing in

702
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,080
my opinion, that Zetan will
build it because I think they

703
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:12,400
can build it cheaper, you know,
and the, the number that we're

704
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:17,040
going to see in the PFS won't be
the number that Siegen, I think

705
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:19,480
will believe that they can build
the thing in.

706
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,640
So that's something to, to kind
of bear in mind, I reckon.

707
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:24,840
So it's a, it's a kind of fine
line.

708
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,880
Now for Xanadu, like you said at
the beginning, it's, it's game

709
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,280
day.
You know, if they've got a short

710
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,560
amount of time or hopefully a
short amount of time where they

711
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:37,920
just really need to fire up and
try and get maximum value for

712
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,000
their shareholders, They're only
kept at 100 million.

713
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:45,000
Like I said, it's a, a project
with AUS 600 million plus NPV

714
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,080
with, you know what you'd kind
of call a modest copper price

715
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,360
assumption, a modest gold price
assumption.

716
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:52,680
Obviously costs will have gone
up a bit.

717
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,520
But then again, you do have
siege in, in the in the driver's

718
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,000
seat and the process could come
a bit, become a bit drawn out,

719
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:00,640
but it's a super interesting
one.

720
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,000
I think we should stay, stay
focused.

721
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,840
On yeah, I was trying to figure
out if asymmetric, like like if,

722
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,960
if the nice, the more upside or
downside.

723
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:12,880
And it's I can see from both
ways because like the way you

724
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,920
describe the JV now, Zijin's
kind of in control of that.

725
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,440
And whenever someone else is in
control, like kind of, you know,

726
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:21,480
they're in control of the jet.
I know there's like equal rights

727
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,720
on the budget and all that sort
of stuff, but you always get a

728
00:36:23,720 --> 00:36:25,680
bit nervous in those sort of JV
arrangements without knowing the

729
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,120
full details of how the JV
structured and everything like

730
00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:30,000
that.
On the budget side, you could

731
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,320
see like, you know, the big
gamesmanship, you might even,

732
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,560
yeah, you might even not approve
the budget and drag things out

733
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,680
and go slow ball and try get an
outcome that way.

734
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:42,920
I'd love to see a royalty spun
out like or a royalty retained

735
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:43,640
by Xanadu.
I just.

736
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:47,880
US $16 billion of revenue over
the base on the base case.

737
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,880
I know they're hard to
negotiate, but like no, like we

738
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,840
talked about the potential of
having a royalty with kind of

739
00:36:54,840 --> 00:36:56,920
the fuel low transaction that
never came to fruition.

740
00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:01,000
But yeah, those those kind of
like transactions that result in

741
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:04,320
like they would say Hosanna do
sell their interest in the JV

742
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,040
but return to royalty like
that's such an interesting

743
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,600
vehicle, you know, but it
probably probably probably ever

744
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:09,440
happened.
Yeah.

745
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:14,080
I mean, you could kind of call
that 25% project ownership in a

746
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,600
way a quirky kind of.
Yeah, Royalty.

747
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:18,960
Vehicle.
Yeah, it's interesting, Yeah.

748
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,640
Yeah.
I should be getting a bloody

749
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:23,880
royalty from live wire with this
friggin hat on.

750
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,360
You should.
You should chase enough for that

751
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,520
mate.
No, they're offset by all the

752
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,000
bloody the negative comments on
the Uranium 1.

753
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:35,360
Can we have the more polite lady
back rather than this?

754
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,080
I did, I did.
I'll get that on for you.

755
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,720
I didn't see that but I did see
a comment saying where can I

756
00:37:39,720 --> 00:37:41,640
pick up one of those snazzy live
wire hats.

757
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,560
You did.
You did drum up a bit of his

758
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,320
mate.
Before I get on to the Paladin

759
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,320
fission things, Z Gin just
reminds me what the wonder what

760
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:53,200
the hell is happening with AVZ
if that's going to come to some

761
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:56,880
court sort of outcome soon.
I did hear some juicy word on

762
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:58,960
the decline.
I'm not sure if should be

763
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:03,360
disclosed, but things are things
are in motion on a on a sort of

764
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,400
legal front.
So I think there's some sort of

765
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:09,360
timeline on things now at least
until the next decision is made.

766
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,360
You know that's what happens
after that, but.

767
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:18,160
We haven't forgotten anyway, I
Speaking of just something else,

768
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:24,040
hell of a vision deal, so that
the not not much to report here,

769
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,200
but just it's just not going to
plan.

770
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,520
It appears and I remember when
we said like fuck, once the

771
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,480
votes over the line, like you're
pretty much home, but not not

772
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,440
the case in this one.
So and and it's for the fucking

773
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,200
weird, right?
I wouldn't say weird.

774
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,720
It's like, yeah, it's hard to
properly substantiate this, but

775
00:38:43,720 --> 00:38:47,160
they're trying the artist.
And so because the final court

776
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:50,360
here in Canada that's still
ongoing expected to deliver a

777
00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,200
decision in the coming weeks.
But then yesterday the Canadian

778
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,000
Minister for Innovation, Science
and Industry ordered a national

779
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,200
security review of the scheme of
arrangement.

780
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:05,120
So and it's to do with China's
CGN mining being a 11 and a bit

781
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,960
percent shareholder in vision.
How does that make sense?

782
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,360
Because you normally object if
it was the acquirer that had the

783
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:11,880
Chinese interest.
Well, I think they're talking.

784
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,040
About what the pro forma is
going to be, which is going to

785
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:17,040
be significantly less than 10.
Such a stretch.

786
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,720
Yeah, yeah.
And I think because it's and

787
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,400
they're going to be a, you know,
a minority shareholder by the

788
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:24,200
end of it.
So you're diluting the Chinese

789
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,000
ownership in the pro forma and
yet you're objecting to that?

790
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,360
Yeah, but then and but the most
interesting thing is that CGM

791
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,840
were voting against the deal,
yes, because, because.

792
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,920
I don't know if you like, we
peeled through the scheme Doc,

793
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,120
the information circular and
someone else had bid for

794
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:41,120
fission, Maddie, which we our
theory was it was CGN had said

795
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,440
for fission earlier this year.
Yeah.

796
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,040
And it didn't, didn't, didn't go
ahead.

797
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,520
So that's why they were objected
to it.

798
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,920
Yeah, yeah.
So they're they're the sort of

799
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:51,640
the cause of this, but they were
voting against the deal anyway,

800
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:55,720
which makes it so just a.
Quick one, Maddie, this Canadian

801
00:39:55,720 --> 00:39:59,440
minister from, you know, the the
Office of Innovation, Science

802
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:03,400
and Industry ordering a national
security review, is this

803
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:07,480
analogous to a Ferb review or is
this a different thing to what

804
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,680
they call Ferb over there?
I can't give an answer.

805
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,960
This is that Investment Canada
Act.

806
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:14,680
Remember all that all?
That is the investment.

807
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,280
Canada is the investment because
I know that's what they

808
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,120
mentioned.
Earlier, that was the stuff that

809
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,440
was all talked about like two
months ago, yeah, ramped up and

810
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,280
that that.
Was what was mentioned

811
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:26,400
specifically in the announcement
subject to Canadian Investment

812
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:27,280
Act?
Approval.

813
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,840
That's what this is, yeah.
So there and there and because,

814
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:33,720
but and this is a part of it.
This was the Curry wrote it in

815
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:37,200
the far article, but not sure if
this is a part as well that

816
00:40:37,400 --> 00:40:43,560
because you got Chinas CNNC also
hold 25% ownership at a project

817
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,000
level of Langa Heinrich, which
would be obviously part of the

818
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:49,440
pro forma on the paladin side.
So like I don't know if they

819
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,880
look at it right.
If you had that project

820
00:40:51,920 --> 00:40:55,360
ownership, it's fun.
It's out there and it's like a

821
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,680
last straw tempt on who's
driving this.

822
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,960
If it's purely can it regulatory
driving it or yeah, because

823
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,360
because the pro forma is going
to be dual listed on TSX and TSX

824
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:12,360
and Chinese minority shareholder
with the project, it just might

825
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:16,920
this might just be where Canada
is heading like which we saw

826
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,960
about you know the previous news
about you know foreign

827
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:21,880
investment in there.
Like this might be the sort of

828
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:25,920
first little play it really.
It's such a it's.

829
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,040
Like battening down the hatches
a bit, but it's, it's friggin,

830
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:32,720
as I said, the fact that that
votes got over the line just

831
00:41:32,720 --> 00:41:36,120
which was, and there was some
scepticism on what shares were

832
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,440
used in to do that, like
employee shares and everything,

833
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:40,840
because I just got over the
line.

834
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,520
And now, now this, it's, it is
blowing out.

835
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,640
And it'd be interesting to see
if these regulators have the

836
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,560
final say on it.
It's such a defensive

837
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,760
protectionist perspective that
they're, they're kind of taking

838
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,800
as opposed to, you know,
building a solid foundation for

839
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,120
all of your miners to operate
and be successful, whether that

840
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,280
be through tax benefits and, and
these sorts of things.

841
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,640
It's, it's so much more, you
know, protectionist saying that

842
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,160
you can't do that, you can't buy
this, you can't get involved

843
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:09,800
here.
I think there could be a a

844
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:12,160
different way to kind of look at
this without getting too

845
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:16,800
political to build a solid
foundation for your miners to do

846
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:19,640
well as opposed to just saying,
you know, because this could

847
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,160
damage exploration.
Like we sort of discussed in the

848
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:26,720
past, if there's less exit
opportunities, you know, have

849
00:42:26,720 --> 00:42:28,880
less potentially less money
going to exploration and these

850
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,560
sorts of things if they think
half the potential buyers are no

851
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,000
longer allowed to buy the
projects.

852
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,400
So.
Any other thing I can think of

853
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:40,920
is if they're they're trying to
minimise the Chinese ownership

854
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:46,920
so they can keep the uranium in
North America in the future so

855
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:51,160
it's not obligated to go there,
but how do you control that?

856
00:42:51,240 --> 00:42:52,520
You can still sign an off take
with.

857
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:53,920
China, if you want it, would
make if.

858
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,600
They're not a shareholder.
It would make so much more sense

859
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,240
to have that, you know, the
stuff being mined in your

860
00:42:59,240 --> 00:43:02,200
country, streamline the
permitting processes, you know,

861
00:43:02,240 --> 00:43:05,040
do all that more effectively.
So there are, you know, a couple

862
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,720
more mines or bigger scale mines
in your country as opposed to

863
00:43:08,720 --> 00:43:11,280
just slapping their hand when
they're trying to buy something.

864
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,240
God, you, you can see our bloody
weird.

865
00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:16,240
What you thinking is imagine
running the companies and

866
00:43:16,240 --> 00:43:19,640
liaising with these people.
God, pick your eyes out.

867
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,160
Yeah, bloody out there.
What?

868
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:25,360
You what?
Essentially I've provided

869
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,720
nothing off you.
It's like I just don't.

870
00:43:29,000 --> 00:43:30,960
It's just weird.
Yeah, the only way could make

871
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:37,560
sense to me is if the JV partner
at Lang Heinrich who they have

872
00:43:37,720 --> 00:43:39,400
the off take.
Right.

873
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:41,440
I don't know if they've got all
of it.

874
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:41,880
I'm not.
Sure.

875
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,960
Yeah.
So what if they had the if only

876
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,360
if they had like to write a
first refusal on any other

877
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:51,120
future production from Paladin
and any operation that would

878
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,560
include that would include
vision if they did.

879
00:43:53,720 --> 00:43:55,440
That's the only hypothesis that
could actually.

880
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,400
But I don't think that just
seems like such a strategy too.

881
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,240
Yeah, it's like are they going
to ban exporting uranium to

882
00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:02,560
China?
Like that's it.

883
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:03,400
I don't know.
Who knows.

884
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:04,640
Who knows what laws are going to
come in.

885
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,920
Sounds like there's going to be
that many independent fricking

886
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:12,280
countries and geographies in the
world coming up soon possibly if

887
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,640
Russia detaching itself from
Russia bloody this.

888
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,560
They don't want anything to do
with China here.

889
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:21,080
It's it's very weird, but
unfortunately they're all

890
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,640
connected in the vertical
integration of all this stuff at

891
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,560
the moment of everything.
So.

892
00:44:25,720 --> 00:44:27,240
Bring on the West Australian
secession.

893
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:29,760
Yeah.
Well, we're at it.

894
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,600
I'll be right.
I'll sort it out in Parliament.

895
00:44:32,960 --> 00:44:36,400
So right now, good work boys.
Love you work.

896
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,480
Enjoy tomorrow's episode
everyone.

897
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,520
She's a bit of a Corker, JD
interviewing one of the old

898
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,920
school mining magnates of.
Australia.

899
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:45,920
You know who else we love?
Maddie.

900
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:49,720
Who do you love?
JD Love MMSI love them too.

901
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:54,000
Like grounded cross boundary
energy, Sandvik ground support

902
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:55,360
God it feels good saying that
name.

903
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,080
How good is it?
CRE insurance, Greenland and

904
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:02,720
equipment K Drill, MTS,
Australian earthworks and

905
00:45:02,720 --> 00:45:06,240
haulage.
And don't forget to use a Spark

906
00:45:06,240 --> 00:45:10,400
Charter.
Right Urdu Money Miners Urdu The

907
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:12,920
information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

908
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,000
general nature only and does not
take into account the

909
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,600
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

910
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,640
person.
Before making any investment

911
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,680
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

912
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,840
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

913
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,040
financial situation and needs.