Is a Bid 3x Your Share Price Irrefusable?

1
00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,080
Go on lithium, OK, Just I'm just
going to put the simple

2
00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:07,400
interpretation out here.
They've they've been offered

3
00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:11,440
cash that is 3 times their
market cap at the moment and

4
00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,120
they've rejected it.
Broad sort of strokes mate.

5
00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:15,760
That's that's kind of what we're
working with.

6
00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:21,000
Righto muddy viters Every day
that JC is on is a good day.

7
00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,480
Welcome back.
It's always a Thursday too.

8
00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:25,040
I.
Know must be a shrink.

9
00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:26,720
I love it.
And you're JC.

10
00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:31,000
You're gonna, well, the big
first, first story Golan Lithium

11
00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:37,000
and it try JD, you're going to
try and make sense of what is

12
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,800
obvious or not obvious about why
they've rejected this offer.

13
00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,440
I look forward to it.
Super, super interesting and

14
00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,680
with JC on the show, no doubt
we're talking about gold as

15
00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:48,160
well.
We are gold.

16
00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,760
Some gold call is coming out.
I'm going to since like no one

17
00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,240
is really hypothesise and what
the Hell's gonna happen with

18
00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:58,680
Bellevue should they come out of
suspension tomorrow?

19
00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,600
I'll just probably make myself
look like clown and put deeper

20
00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,560
predictions out of every 16
different ways this could

21
00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:08,920
happen.
Well, that's and JC, you're

22
00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,120
going into the quarterlies.
Remelius's once again record

23
00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,440
free cash flow and that.
Was also Poly medals.

24
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:21,760
I headed out to Western NSW AGC.
Yeah, that sounds right near CRE

25
00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,080
insurance.
It's Orange office.

26
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,440
Yes, that's right.
That may be painted orange, we

27
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,800
don't know that yet, but they
they'll be all over Poly metals.

28
00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:32,520
They'll be up like they'll be up
Poly metals like right up a

29
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,840
drain pipe.
That is absolutely.

30
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:41,040
And that is not the only western
NSW asset that CRE insurance

31
00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,280
should be broken insurance
policies for.

32
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,520
There's plenty.
They didn't put an office in

33
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:51,040
Orange for no bloody reason and
so one tell me if the office is

34
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:56,040
orange 2GO say I lie to them and
Mike welcome them into the

35
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,360
community.
The go to insurance brokers.

36
00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,240
What else?
What else we got That was it.

37
00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:02,440
Any other callers?
JC.

38
00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:06,080
Mills 260 OH.
Yeah.

39
00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:11,520
And there was a accommodation
village sale that is very

40
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,080
interesting.
And a bit on Metro.

41
00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,160
A metro last one to.
Mention it's all happening.

42
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,840
It's all happening.
It's bloody going into quarterly

43
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:20,800
season.
Leave it.

44
00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:22,640
That's it.
I am pumped up.

45
00:02:22,920 --> 00:02:24,280
Did you say how good my shirt
was?

46
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:25,880
I wore at the mining club last
night?

47
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:28,160
I'm all over LinkedIn.
It looked real good.

48
00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:29,600
It looked real good in the
light.

49
00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:32,000
I will say it's.
Like a I'll have to check out

50
00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,240
the photos mate.
Maybe you can paste one over now

51
00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,600
so everyone on the show can say.
It's like a royal blue.

52
00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:37,880
I don't know.
I'll find it.

53
00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:39,120
Good on you.
Right.

54
00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:40,400
Let let it out, JD.
OK.

55
00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,520
Galan Lithium, just I'm just
going to put the simple

56
00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,560
interpretation out here and
you're going to elaborate.

57
00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:52,600
They've they've been offered a
takeover all cash that is 3

58
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,400
times their market cap at the
moment and they've rejected it.

59
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:02,520
Is that sort of what's happened?
That's on the pathway to being

60
00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:04,760
correct.
There's a few sort of nuances.

61
00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,520
It's for, it's for the assets.
It's not a company takeover.

62
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,080
I think if you want to split
hairs about it, it's like 2.7

63
00:03:11,640 --> 00:03:14,360
times, but broad sort of
strokes, mate.

64
00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:16,120
That's that's kind of what we're
working with, OK.

65
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,640
Why don't we know?
More than worthwhile a chat,

66
00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,440
Yeah.
So the stock is up 42% on the

67
00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,040
back of this one.
Super, super interesting.

68
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,360
For those that aren't up to
speed with it, we're in

69
00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,240
Argentina, we're talking about
lithium brines.

70
00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:34,040
So that they've got a sort of
phased style to get themselves

71
00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:39,800
up to a, you know, full flight
phase two, which is not quite

72
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:45,440
what they're on yet is talking
about in spot terms 175,000 tons

73
00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,000
per annum roughly phase one,
which is what they're working on

74
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:53,840
right now is about 1/5 of that.
So they're they're working their

75
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,880
way up there.
But to get into the the deal

76
00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:01,000
side of it, you guys will
remember in August of last year

77
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,400
was all was all chatter around
the first day of diggers.

78
00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:07,040
If I remember right, Energy X,
this private U.S. company comes

79
00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,440
and has a dip for glance assets
with a bit of a kind of scrappy

80
00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,160
execution, right.
So it was first revealed in AFR

81
00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,680
St. talk the the stock price
shot up, the company went into

82
00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,920
trading hold.
They come out and explain what's

83
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,320
kind of happened.
There's a bit of kind of

84
00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:27,360
chitchat over the next few days,
but it's ultimately pretty short

85
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,200
lived.
The the counterparty you could

86
00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:33,480
perhaps say was at least in the
market perceived to be a bit

87
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:38,680
less solid and the the deal had
a few sort of quirks about it.

88
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,400
I'll flash up the announcement.
So you can kind of say, but

89
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:46,680
there was US 50 million in in
cash US 50 in common shares in

90
00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,920
energy X that would be priced by
Energy X.

91
00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,200
So that's a bit kind of
ambiguous what the actual value

92
00:04:53,280 --> 00:04:57,720
is there and and a royalty.
But anyway, that sees a short

93
00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,200
term kick up in the price and
then the the stock price just

94
00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,600
backtracks to roughly about the
same level where it was

95
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:05,560
yesterday.
You can kind of call that 10 or

96
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,800
11 cents.
And here's where it gets super

97
00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,760
interesting, right?
So you got a company kept at 90

98
00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:15,320
odd million Aussie E VS pretty
pretty similar 90 ish million.

99
00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:18,720
They come out with this
secondary trading notice today.

100
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,920
Now this relates to this at the
market facility which that which

101
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,280
they have.
They've had that in place for

102
00:05:24,280 --> 00:05:26,720
some time.
You can kind of think about that

103
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,800
as this this mechanism to
capital raise as and when you

104
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,280
need up to a certain limit of
obviously I was at a kind of

105
00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,040
discount, but it's a set
discount.

106
00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:41,240
Now, below those standard
regulatory disclosures, it's

107
00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:43,600
revealed they've received
another proposal.

108
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,040
Super, super interesting.
So it's an unsolicited

109
00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:51,160
conditional non binding proposal
from Yu Kobo Chinese group and

110
00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:54,240
Renault.
So people will know Renault as

111
00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,960
the originally French automaker,
but they're kind of French

112
00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,760
Japanese now.
Now again, they want to buy the

113
00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,440
assets.
So hombre Muerto West and

114
00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:05,240
candalest.
That's the kind of second

115
00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:12,040
secondary project that the
company has for a flat US $150

116
00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:16,360
million in cash.
So if you're thinking about this

117
00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:20,240
in terms of Galan stock price,
we're talking about roughly 28

118
00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,120
1/2 cents for a company.
Like I said, that was trading at

119
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:28,240
about 10 or 11 cents before the
for the bid came in today.

120
00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,200
So forget your standard 30 or
40% premium.

121
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:36,640
That's like 2.7 times that is a
a chunky chunky takeover premium

122
00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:42,240
or proposal premium comes with
the standard kind of conditions,

123
00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,880
you know, completion of D-Day by
the by the bidders, mutual

124
00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,360
agreement on the on the docks
and a few other bits and pieces

125
00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,840
there.
But just below that, the

126
00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:54,320
company's come up and said that
they've rejected it already.

127
00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,880
So As for why they talk about
the bid being opportunistic,

128
00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:03,760
obviously undervaluing the
company, like everyone says when

129
00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,440
they reject a bid, they speak to
off take and financing

130
00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:09,800
agreements being just right
there, they're about to sign

131
00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,240
them.
And on the back of those I think

132
00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:15,720
there'd be more certainty in a
superior outcome for

133
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,760
shareholders.
So there we kind of go.

134
00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,080
Yeah, right.
And as you say, this is cash for

135
00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,640
the assets.
So it's not saying that where

136
00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:28,040
that cash would go.
It could be if, if

137
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,880
hypothetically it did go
through, it could be retained

138
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,320
within the company, they could
buy something else, they could

139
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:36,480
distribute it to shareholders.
But it is not knowing what would

140
00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,120
happen with that compared to a
takeover.

141
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,840
Awful.
Lot of this one spot on mate.

142
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:47,560
Exactly like we spoke about with
CZRA couple of weeks ago with

143
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,480
the the Rio proposal for Rogue
Mesa, cash goes into the

144
00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:52,960
company.
The company becomes a bit of a

145
00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,560
cash box.
You always expected in that case

146
00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:00,800
should that eventuate to be a, a
stock that trades at a bit of a

147
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:05,520
discount given given risks on
how the the company might

148
00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:09,120
allocate that capital.
So that would be the situation

149
00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:13,080
should it get there, but that's
not kind of where we've ended

150
00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:14,200
up, is it?
Yeah.

151
00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:18,520
And and as you said, it's up
40%, but the offer is

152
00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,080
substantially higher that higher
than that.

153
00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,480
What's your first take on why
that is?

154
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,400
Was it obviously, it's obviously
the rejection and the fact that

155
00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,240
they don't look amenable to to
the deal, but I assume

156
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,039
shareholders would have some
questions that might want to

157
00:08:34,039 --> 00:08:37,760
return.
Yeah, I think, I think they

158
00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:40,080
would.
There's I mean more than a, a

159
00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,240
few sort of points to it.
So I think it speaks to, to

160
00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:48,680
management's view of the project
and you know in, in tan and

161
00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,040
their belief on their ability
to, to execute.

162
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:54,360
So for, for a bit of background
on the company, they want to

163
00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:58,280
produce a, a lithium chloride
product, not a carbonate.

164
00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,880
Carbonate we know is super,
super hard to, to execute on.

165
00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,160
So it's a, an intermediate
product.

166
00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,560
They have this prepayment
facility with a Chinese group

167
00:09:07,560 --> 00:09:12,200
called Chemfis in place.
Chemfis is one of the the big

168
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,480
lithium converters you you'll
see them on the register as

169
00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,600
well.
They pop up as Latam resources

170
00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,800
as one of the biggest
shareholders in in Golan.

171
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,840
But that pre pre payment is for
40 million US Maddie.

172
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,680
But they haven't actually
received that cash.

173
00:09:27,680 --> 00:09:31,520
So when they talk to it in the
announcement that you know,

174
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,800
close to securing that that off
take and and financing, they're

175
00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,800
talking about actually getting
that US 40 million in the door.

176
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,360
So phase one, which they're
building out right now has a a

177
00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:48,720
total CapEx of about 120 million
US and they're 50% complete at

178
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,840
the moment.
So they they don't spell out

179
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,600
that they've spent 50% of the
CapEx that needs to be spent,

180
00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:59,680
but you know, 50% they must be
kind of in that in that

181
00:09:59,680 --> 00:10:02,280
ballpark.
So US 40 million gets them a

182
00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,960
fairway there.
Granted, they have said for some

183
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,920
time now that financing is, is
pretty close if you want to take

184
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:13,080
a bit of a cynical take on it.
But in light of that, you could

185
00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,960
though management could make the
argument that we're pretty close

186
00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:19,320
to to being a kind of producing
asset.

187
00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,840
We sit pretty low on on the cost
curve.

188
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,280
This is an opportunity
opportunistic deal given where

189
00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,840
we are in the in the lithium
cycle completely kind of beaten

190
00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,240
up.
So regardless of that, it, it

191
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,640
puts the pressure on management,
right, because they've got to

192
00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,640
deliver now they've, they've had
this pretty legitimate offer

193
00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:39,560
come in way above their share
price.

194
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,960
I think the, the clock is
ticking on, on them having to

195
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:46,440
actually deliver some, some
shareholder returns and they run

196
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,000
the risk of having to, to do
another capital raise.

197
00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,240
They did one over half a year
ago for $25 million.

198
00:10:53,680 --> 00:10:56,160
You know, when you're a, when
you're a 90 odd million market

199
00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,440
cap company that's seriously
dilutionary to, to do those

200
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:03,560
raises at 10 odd cents.
What what did you sort of make

201
00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:05,080
of it?
You, you sort of spoke to me

202
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,520
straight away when it when it
came up this morning as well.

203
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,880
And I know you've sort of put
feelers around what what did you

204
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,600
kind of make about a a company
betting away a 3X premium?

205
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:16,280
Yeah.
And it's, so you look at it from

206
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,480
the, the, you know, there's
bullish outlook on lithium and

207
00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:25,000
EV demand and, and in house
batteries, robots like

208
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:26,840
everything, not, not denying
that.

209
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,760
And that is obviously the stance
that the company is taking

210
00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:34,080
saying, OK, we believe this will
turn around and we believe we

211
00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,000
can add way more value in the
future if we keep this.

212
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:41,240
But if you're just a shareholder
and you're like, OK, I can get 2

213
00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:45,520
1/2 times my money potentially,
hopefully maybe distributed to

214
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:50,280
me or in some way, shape or form
if this deal goes through and I

215
00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,760
can then put that money into
something else and not wait for

216
00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,920
the lithium rebound light.
So there's that's the two sides

217
00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:59,720
of the fence, Who's right, who's
wrong?

218
00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:02,280
But if you're the shareholder,
you want the money now.

219
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,560
Guess the other thing.
As well I, I thought was curious

220
00:12:06,560 --> 00:12:10,640
is in both instances that the
one that's the this sort of deal

221
00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:15,400
that's mentioned today and the
one from last year Jade is both

222
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,240
of them were offers for the
assets as opposed to the company

223
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:23,120
itself.
And I'm just wondering, I mean,

224
00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,320
I don't, I don't know Glenn too
well, but I don't think they

225
00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:29,560
have many other sort of assets,
you know, sort of outside of

226
00:12:29,560 --> 00:12:31,120
these ones.
So it's just like, why wouldn't

227
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:32,560
they just make an offer for the
company?

228
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:36,720
Because it's incentivizes the
management to take it because

229
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:40,880
they get to keep their job.
Yeah, yeah.

230
00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:44,200
Like they've got a couple other
exploration plays in in James

231
00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:49,240
Bay and Greenbush and South, but
it's a way of potentially

232
00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:50,880
appeasing a few people.
Exactly.

233
00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,000
Maybe.
Yeah, interesting.

234
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,640
Yeah, So what?
There's some.

235
00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,480
Kind of tax implications to.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

236
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,480
What are they, JD?
Well, the, the company would

237
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:09,720
have to, there would be some,
some tax on an asset sale as

238
00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:11,400
well.
From the the company's

239
00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:14,240
perspective that they would I, I
would imagine unless there's

240
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,960
some ways around that in
Argentina.

241
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:17,800
Yeah.
So there's capital going on the

242
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:22,080
asset sale versus the rollover
relief of scheme?

243
00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:25,440
I would.
I would think so, no, No

244
00:13:25,440 --> 00:13:28,720
Argentinian tax expert, but that
that makes sense to me.

245
00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,160
Yeah.
Yeah, to, to, to jump back to

246
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,640
rejecting the premium, we need
to obviously speak about the the

247
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,360
shareholders, right.
So we've spoken about

248
00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,400
management's take of things.
So board and management have 6%

249
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:44,200
of the company That's that's
more than we see it at, you

250
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,160
know, a number of other
operations.

251
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,400
It's a it's a decent size.
They're they're incentivized

252
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:51,440
for, for a good outcome.
They've they've been there for a

253
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,080
fair while chipping away at this
one.

254
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:59,000
And then you've got a top 20
that makes up about 35% of the

255
00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:02,200
the shares on issue.
And you know, you got, you got

256
00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,680
Regal in there Latin, like I
mentioned, that's the, that's

257
00:14:05,680 --> 00:14:10,480
the Chinese converter.
So I, I would expect that they

258
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,960
were, they were engaged, you
know, they're the, the owners of

259
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:16,480
the business, no kind of
certainty on that.

260
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:21,360
And the, the way in which the
company just bounced it back

261
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,320
with, with such little
discussion about it makes me

262
00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,640
think maybe they weren't, but
who kind of knows.

263
00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:31,520
But I think I think there is a
bit to be said about like the

264
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,360
way they've disclosed this as
well.

265
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,960
It is pretty funny to me that
this was disclosed at the bottom

266
00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,320
of a a secondary trading notice,
not its own kind of.

267
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,200
Like a stand alone.
Yeah, yeah.

268
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,080
I think it's just, you know,
it's a, it's a pretty serious

269
00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,040
kind of offer at a really
serious premium.

270
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:54,400
I think it warrants a fair bit
of explan explanation to the

271
00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,440
other shareholders that might
not be in that top 20, that

272
00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,480
might not be, you know, on, on
talk and terms with, with

273
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,600
management and might not have
that sort of access.

274
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,000
I think there's, you know,
potentially room for, for

275
00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,000
management to, to speak to them
and give a bit more of a

276
00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:13,520
rationale for why, but maybe
they've maybe they've thought

277
00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,160
that through and thought that
doesn't bode with their

278
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:17,920
strategy.
And there's there's a big master

279
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,840
plan that I'm not aware of here.
It'll be interesting to see if

280
00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:24,040
there's any shareholder actions
because when you say the top 20

281
00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:26,360
are and 35%, that's pretty
loosely held.

282
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,120
That's not a not a big top 20
register.

283
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:34,000
It's like 35% is pretty low from
my understanding.

284
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,720
So you might get a bit of a
might get a retail component get

285
00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:41,840
together for a with a 5% or
greater that might want the

286
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,880
cash.
It'll be interesting to follow

287
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,280
this.
Yeah, it could, could get

288
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,160
interesting for sure.
Kind of depends on, on on the

289
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,640
liquidity and if the liquidity
gets out of it.

290
00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,720
But for sure if if things don't
turn out well, so over the next

291
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,760
year or so, then things might
get quite spicy.

292
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,120
But you know where we're at now,
things are things are tracking

293
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:05,440
along that first production for
the first half of 2026 that was

294
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:07,600
pushed a little bit.
But let's hope that they can

295
00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:09,920
sort of hit that goal and maybe
they get a lithium pickup that

296
00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,680
helps them out a little bit.
Be an interesting one to follow.

297
00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:18,880
But yeah, I think when those
those sort of financing and off

298
00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:23,640
take sort of paces are
finalized, which they're saying

299
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,800
is in the short term, it'd be
interesting to see what sort of

300
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,800
what form that takes.
Because then you sort of got a

301
00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:34,360
bit more information to say, OK,
well, this is the the sort of

302
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,640
status quo scenario if we were
to go ahead as we are versus you

303
00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:44,120
know what as far as you know,
you know, obviously the pro

304
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,280
project returns and things like
that, but like the financing,

305
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,560
the capital structure dilution,
you know what all that kind of

306
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:54,160
means.
And then versus you know what

307
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,640
this scenario we've we've seen
today.

308
00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,160
So want to watch for sure.
Could be maybe they're thinking

309
00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,920
we're going to get more money
off REO tender since they're

310
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,359
expanding lithium in down?
In that region.

311
00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:11,119
Yeah.
And you and you and you can see

312
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:16,880
on that map that that we chucked
out before that the tenements

313
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:22,160
that these guys go on hold the
Ombre Muerto W like surround on

314
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:26,160
the western side, Rio's assets.
So Rio kind of have the the

315
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:30,440
Salah, the the actual kind of
salt flat and ombre Muerto W is

316
00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,720
like kind of getting getting on
the hills and a bit.

317
00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,960
And you can see it in some of
the pictures as well.

318
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,920
They're kind of like on the edge
and that kind of dictates how

319
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,040
they they shape their ponds a
little bit.

320
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,520
Yeah, I'll be watching.
Watch for AI definitely getting

321
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:46,720
active.
They're in everything.

322
00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,280
Yeah, I mean, there's been a,
there's been a shit load on on

323
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:53,720
lithium, so I'm sure they've got
a fair bit of work ahead of

324
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,120
them.
But let's see how it goes.

325
00:17:55,120 --> 00:18:00,160
A little bit more won't matter.
JD Justin All right, let's now

326
00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,600
Bellevue, Oh, Bellevue.
There's no been no one's sending

327
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:08,080
emails about them at all.
Like it's just, it was.

328
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,400
No one's speculating, I don't
think.

329
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:13,360
Like no one's pretty quiet.
No one's putting their name to

330
00:18:13,360 --> 00:18:18,800
any speculation then, which
alludes to the fact that no one

331
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,600
has got any real idea what's
going to happen here and what

332
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,720
extent of it.
So we can go through pretty much

333
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:30,800
bloody every scenario because
the IT says the company

334
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:35,120
anticipates the they'll come out
of suspension commencement of

335
00:18:35,120 --> 00:18:37,880
trading Friday, April 4th, but
anticipates.

336
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,800
So it's not a not a guarantee
they're coming out tomorrow.

337
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,680
So that's that's probably the
first cab off the rank.

338
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,120
Will they come out tomorrow or
will they not Will it?

339
00:18:46,120 --> 00:18:48,480
There's there's a lot of people
that say it's probably going to

340
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,800
be extended.
I think you said that start of

341
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,480
the week, JD.
If you didn't, I'll say you did.

342
00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:58,680
If they've had a week, I mean,
who knows what they're what

343
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:00,520
they're wrapping up.
Completely agree.

344
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,960
They've they've kept it tight
lip, which is yeah, good.

345
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:06,480
Good to see.
And we'll see what form it takes

346
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,520
if they do, or if and when they
do come out.

347
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,240
So I think we'll say, OK, let's
go through each piece of it.

348
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:18,720
There's the production, there's
the debt and obviously the cash

349
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,680
balance that goes with it and
the potential for a rise or not

350
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,760
and what the quantum of that
rise is.

351
00:19:25,120 --> 00:19:29,240
So I think we've we know that
there's going to be a production

352
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,320
downgrade of some sorts.
They had a very bullish half two

353
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:37,560
saying they're going to get
90,000 sounds like be interested

354
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:42,120
to say if this quarter's close
to 30,000 oz or not.

355
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:47,480
And then we sounds like they're
that downgrade is either going

356
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,600
to come from they didn't even
hit that this quarter or it's

357
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:54,200
def they're definitely not going
to have that huge, that huge

358
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,800
June quarter that they were
needing to hit that guard.

359
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,320
And so we know the downgrade's
coming.

360
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:03,400
But then alongside that, we also
know that developer have quoted

361
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,240
in their announcement, they've,
you know, mentioned it on

362
00:20:06,360 --> 00:20:11,120
interviews that you know,
production, their physicals are

363
00:20:11,120 --> 00:20:14,960
up 20%.
So let's just say production.

364
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:20,000
Development are up 20%, so
that's so Bellevue are producing

365
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,120
less answers.
They're paying for 20% more

366
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,720
mining contractor physicals.
Tons.

367
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,880
Yep, tons meters.
So we can we can infer right, OK

368
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:35,360
that that's going to put stress
on that balance sheet sitting at

369
00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:40,800
80 million and I think you know,
word was low 30,000 oz were sort

370
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,800
of break even if not going
backwards in free cash flow a

371
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:48,160
bit and whether that's based on
up, up 20% higher physicals.

372
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,880
So there there's definitely
likely going to be a negative

373
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,680
cash move I I would anticipate
so.

374
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,640
With a with a hedge book to to
deliver into partially as well.

375
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,440
Yeah.
And that and, and because if you

376
00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,960
look at that, you look at that
hedge book, what is skip?

377
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,480
So for March, there's what 20
looks like on the graph about

378
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:13,720
23,000 oz with the mixture of
the so the Fords at around 28

379
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:20,560
and then the colours at what is
it about 3800 an ounce bit

380
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,960
below.
So there's essentially 20, a bit

381
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,800
below 20.
If they hit 25,000 oz or below,

382
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,640
they've effectively delivered
everything into that hedge book.

383
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,440
So there's minimal if they hit
30,000, there's about 5000 odd

384
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,080
oz that will be sold at the real
life at the proper spot price.

385
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,320
So that's A and then, but then
you go forward to June and I'll

386
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,560
show you here.
There's about combined a bit

387
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:48,320
over 30,000 ounces to deliver
into the collars and the Ford

388
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:52,320
contracts.
So again, if they don't they

389
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:57,000
they really need something at
least 40 or something in that

390
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,440
quarter to get some exposure to
the gold price.

391
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,200
So if there's 22 poor quarters
coming up, there's a chance that

392
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:07,080
majority of it is have to be
just delivered into this hedge

393
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,120
book.
So that's.

394
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:13,640
Granted those those colours are
at a price they should be, you

395
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,800
know, making making a bit of
money on yes, they're not at the

396
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,920
same price as the hedge book as
as you guys can see in the.

397
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,320
Yeah, but in the chart, but
that's only a portion, a portion

398
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:28,160
of it because you've got the
looks like 3/4 of it is the Ford

399
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,480
contracts this quarter and then
the following quarter it's about

400
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,160
a bit over half of the Fords at
around 2800.

401
00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:37,960
So there's.
A decent chunk, yeah.

402
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,840
Yeah, but it's still obviously
well, and, and remember, like

403
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,720
when they say the hedge book's
out of the money, Out of the

404
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:43,840
money, Of course it's out of the
money.

405
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,440
The gold price is going up shit
loads.

406
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,600
Pretty much everyone's hedge is
out of the money these days.

407
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,040
So that's a hedge.
It doesn't work in a rising gold

408
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,720
price.
But so, so then if you look at

409
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,800
the down grading guidance and
they've got to deliver into this

410
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:04,080
and then, OK, so that's I should
down grading guidance and

411
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,280
possibly whether there's going
to be an updated sort of mine

412
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:12,680
plan and or revision of this
250,000 oz target.

413
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,560
Essentially any change in that
plan is going to be like, OK,

414
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,880
the Macquarie, the debt provider
with who have 100 million owed

415
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,800
to him, who owed to them, which
is secured over Bellevue's

416
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,880
assets.
We'll be saying, OK, change in

417
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,520
the mine plan needs to be
obviously signed off regarding

418
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,880
covenants because the covenants
were waived until it didn't say

419
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,440
specifically, but it said the
covenants will be waived for a

420
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,840
portion of FY25.
So we're in the back end of FY25

421
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,600
now.
So you'd anticipate maybe may

422
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,240
end of March or start April is
around that time where the

423
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,680
covenants come back into effect.
So it's like, OK, what, what are

424
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,720
the options if Macquarie say,
OK, are they going to sign off

425
00:23:54,720 --> 00:24:01,520
on an updated mine plan and they
can in a way assure them that we

426
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,080
can make enough money to service
the debt.

427
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,360
And we've got this potentially
from September quarter onwards

428
00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:12,440
when the hedge book drops off a
bit and hopefully production

429
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,080
increases, we're like, yes,
we've got a, we've got a pathway

430
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:20,400
to making some free cash.
But with their cash balance at

431
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,320
the moment and likely going
backwards in these quarters,

432
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:27,520
it's like, OK, are they going to
get away without raising some

433
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,720
amount of money just to give
themselves breathing room?

434
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:36,480
And so would that money be used
to pay off to get Macquarie out

435
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,120
of the picture or would it be
used to pay off some of the

436
00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:41,520
hedge book?
Or would it just be used for

437
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:43,960
working capital?
Because I suppose there's

438
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:49,240
keeping the Macquarie debt might
be poison pill in a way.

439
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:53,040
For another, you'd think it'd be
cleared when they do an

440
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,640
acquisition, but it's like
cosmic Macquarie got security

441
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,680
over the assets.
It's like, would that deter

442
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,960
someone else coming in because
they know they've got to pay

443
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,640
Macquarie off?
You'd assume they'd clear that

444
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:03,440
out straight away.
I.

445
00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:10,080
I don't think the debt is a, a,
a huge detriment to either

446
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,960
Bellevue or or a potential
acquirer.

447
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,600
Like it's, it's 100 million, it
was already reduced, right?

448
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,760
Yeah.
It's payable in four instalments

449
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:23,480
over calendar year 27.
You'd think they can, yeah, they

450
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,920
can fix things up by then.
You know, I, I don't think it's

451
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,600
a, a massive hindrance.
Granted, maybe they do a, a big

452
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,160
capital raise now.
Maybe that's what they're

453
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:36,440
working on and they just clear
it to, you know, relieve all,

454
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,560
all stresses on, on that front.
Who knows?

455
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,640
Yeah, and a lot.
I just think with the they will

456
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,960
do everything it takes not to
raise a huge amount of money

457
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:52,080
because it is going to be so
dilutionary to do that and which

458
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,560
is not what the major
shareholders will want.

459
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,200
They will do whatever like they
they would rather take on more

460
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,640
debt with Macquarie than avoid
to avoid a capital raise I'd

461
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,200
think.
I think that'd be a more like

462
00:26:03,360 --> 00:26:06,040
avoid a big capital raise
that'll be a more likely.

463
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,080
Get some of those, get some of
those junk bonds.

464
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,640
Just date them out, you know,
far, far and away.

465
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,800
Like I sort of say that tongue
in cheek, but I think you're

466
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,640
you're dead right.
There's there's room for for

467
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,560
that.
This thing should print money.

468
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:23,240
If you can get debt on friendly
ish terms that are long dated

469
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,440
and and relatively covenant
light.

470
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:30,520
Then even if they scale down the
250,000 oz like you said, and

471
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,680
they pull it into whatever 200
or something, there is heaps of

472
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:35,760
room.
We're talking about a hedge book

473
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:40,960
that's like 15 ish 1000 ounces
per annum.

474
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:45,640
You know, maybe it gets close to
20, but 15 inch 1000 oz 1/4.

475
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:50,800
Like there, there is plenty of
scope beyond that in time, once

476
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,760
everything's sort of ramped up,
they're they're mining at all

477
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:57,120
the, the fronts, like you kind
of told us in, in previous

478
00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:00,240
episodes, they should be able to
make plenty of money.

479
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,960
You know, it's, it's a serious
readjustment for, for what

480
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,520
expectations we're at, but
there's, there's room for cash

481
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,360
flow here for sure.
Yeah, definitely.

482
00:27:08,360 --> 00:27:10,560
And it's like and it's all
depending on these next two

483
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:14,240
quarters.
And I think, but I think there's

484
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:18,760
more of a chance like, and
whether this is the discussions

485
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:22,640
going on, there's whether a
strategic's going to come in and

486
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,080
if there is a capital raise and
they're going to do it at a

487
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:27,960
time.
Because I think if they went out

488
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,880
to the to fill a book with funds
and everything, I think the

489
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,160
discount, whoever's setting the
price of that, that'll be a

490
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,920
pretty steep discount after
everything.

491
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,920
But they'd be able to get a
strategic at a much tighter

492
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,760
discount, I think.
But that means the strategic is,

493
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,280
you know, essentially putting
their foot on them and taking

494
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,720
away a lot of competitive
tension because, you know,

495
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,000
there's but.
Isn't that hypothetical?

496
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,800
Why would a strategic want to
pay more than a fund?

497
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,360
Because they get to put their
foot on it.

498
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:03,120
I guess they they want to get it
as as if as cheap as possible I

499
00:28:03,120 --> 00:28:04,920
guess too.
Well, it depends If they want

500
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:06,880
something from them, it could be
like.

501
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,360
A bit of beyond a shit, you
know, a shareholding in the in

502
00:28:10,360 --> 00:28:15,160
the initial sense.
And look, I don't think the wild

503
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:20,080
prediction of the Bellevue dirt
going to Northern Stars Thunder

504
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:24,440
Box Mill is that out of the
realm of possibility.

505
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:29,520
And that could be Northern Star
could use this as an opportunity

506
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:35,760
to take a 20% stake and then
turn the Bellevue mill off,

507
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,640
truck it down 120 KS or so down
to Thunder box on a an all

508
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:44,760
purchase agreement.
And that could be an option that

509
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,080
could be good for Northern Star
to fill that mill.

510
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,920
I'm not sure of the cost.
How what how?

511
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,680
The costs way up once you remove
processing people turn off a

512
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,120
mill and send the track the dirt
instead.

513
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,840
I would assume you make more
running it yourself, but there's

514
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,480
yeah, a bit of background
chatter about that.

515
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,320
So.
I guess it also did, you know, a

516
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:16,440
lot of this also depends on the,
the extent of this sort of

517
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,440
lagged downward adjustment to,
to the guidance.

518
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,600
And is it, I know the
announcement says, you know,

519
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:28,080
regarding, you know, the
potential downward adjustment to

520
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:33,520
FY25 guidance.
But is it, do you think it'll

521
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,640
just be limited to, you know,
the next few months?

522
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,240
Or do you think, you know, there
could be a potential impact, you

523
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,600
know, beyond that?
Is it just this sort of crunch

524
00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,720
period that they're just sort of
really need to get through and

525
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:49,640
then they'll kind of hit their
straps or that's the other thing

526
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,640
as well.
I've sort of thought about, you

527
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,800
know, is this a sort of a short
term crunch?

528
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,280
Is it sort of going to have
longer term implications or is

529
00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:01,800
those longer term sort of plans
more, were they more sort of

530
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:08,160
addressed when they went through
their updated process last year?

531
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,480
I mean not really sure until it
all sort of.

532
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:14,960
Happens because I suppose it
said in the thing.

533
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,560
All they've said is the
potential downward adjustments

534
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,840
to its FY25 production guidance
and whether something comes

535
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,800
there.
And look, there was the article

536
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,960
in the Australian side and they
were they were talking about the

537
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,840
future mine plan to put
investors at ease.

538
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:40,280
But yeah, I don't, I think that
that 250,000 oz, I don't think

539
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,040
it's attainable at all like
unless there's a big production

540
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:48,040
reset and a massive run of
development that it like to.

541
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:52,200
But with with all opening up all
those new areas to get 1.6

542
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,800
million tonne out is we've we
know it's a capital intensive

543
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,360
mine because of the spread out
nature and the independent

544
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,400
infrastructure needed.
And that means the capital's

545
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,040
going to follow them for a lot
of years.

546
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:07,000
But as you said, why would a
company pay a tight discount to

547
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,440
get 20%?
They might see value in being

548
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:14,160
able to take Bellevue over at
$1.50 like price.

549
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,520
So I'm paying, you know, a
dollar now at a tight discount

550
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,440
to get 20% is probably they
might think that's good value if

551
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:24,880
they come in and reset it and
get it back on track as a maybe

552
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,840
it's a 800,000 tonne one AT and
if they can get the 5 grams like

553
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,920
that's a, that's a pretty good
operation.

554
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,920
So.
Yeah, there's just so many

555
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:40,520
hypothetical iterations of what
this, you know, means as far as,

556
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,400
you know, the mind, the mind
itself, the, the, the financing

557
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:51,160
or sort of capital structure,
you know, whether there's any

558
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:55,800
strategics involved, you know,
there's you the, the

559
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,000
hypothetical tree just goes a
lot better, right?

560
00:31:58,360 --> 00:31:59,520
It's it's.
Crazy.

561
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,400
Well, you think like, yes, it
got up to 2 bucks previously

562
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:06,440
like those I think those days
are could possibly gone.

563
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:11,800
And like I think yeah, the major
shareholders might take $1.50 to

564
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,160
get out of this hole because as
I said, if they have to do a big

565
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:20,240
capital raise to you know,
whatever.

566
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,680
I don't think, I don't know if
recaps the word, but if it's a

567
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,640
like within there, if they have
to raise 300 million to get

568
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,320
themselves out of the clear and
have a better run runway, like

569
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,520
that's it, you know, rising at
$0.80.

570
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,640
So it's harder for it to get
from $0.80 to $1.60 is it is

571
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,400
from get from $1.10 to 220 like
much harder.

572
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,360
The absolutely beauty of
dilution.

573
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:48,240
Powers.
Powers indeed.

574
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,080
I wonder where that article in
the Australian came from.

575
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,960
Interesting idea.
Well, there's there's no one

576
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,280
sending anything out, so I
could've they're probably like,

577
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:58,960
oh God, we need to get this out
of their system.

578
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,440
Yeah.
So it's going to be going to be

579
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,760
very interesting to see.
Oh God, I'm excited to see.

580
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,160
I don't, I don't know.
I can't say I'm not.

581
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,440
It's like, yeah, I wouldn't say
I'm excited because I hate

582
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,120
seeing this shit.
He'd rather just things just be

583
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:20,200
executed and companies make
money and backfield the value

584
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,080
they've got.
Watch this.

585
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,480
And you're like, just yeah, just
hide it.

586
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,560
Yeah, I, yeah, I still think
long term it can be a success.

587
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,680
So it's just a lot of short term
pain obviously.

588
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,480
Yeah, yeah, obviously some No,
it just needs a good frigging

589
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,160
review on thing how things have
done.

590
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:42,920
If my assumptions are correct on
things like the oil control and

591
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:47,440
everything, it's like it's the
oar is there, it just needs to

592
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:48,560
be mined.
Yeah.

593
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,680
So yeah.
Anyway, we will wait and see.

594
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:56,160
Ally JC quarterly goal time.
Yippee.

595
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,840
Just just the one I've, I've
picked a, I've picked 3 today.

596
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,240
So we've, are you diversifying
commodities?

597
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:04,520
I've, I, I thought I'd diversify
a little bit.

598
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:07,560
I've been in my compass on a bit
different stuff.

599
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:13,280
So no, no, it's quarterly season
has well and truly commenced for

600
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:17,440
the the March 25 quarter.
Admittedly a lot of these are

601
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:21,400
the older sort of pre reported
or pre quarterlies before the

602
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,280
quarterlies, but that's right,
let's get into them.

603
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:30,000
So first one I've got today is
Remelius, which is a pre

604
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,840
Correlius.
So we'll just do a, a Ding Ding

605
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,560
for myself on Remelius and a
Ding Ding for JD on Spartan for

606
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:35,360
that one.
So.

607
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:39,080
The emerging holdings.
Yeah, we're JD and our emerging

608
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,120
holdings.
How good's that?

609
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:45,520
So they're, they're actually the
first, first Aussie Goldie to

610
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,560
come out with their pre
quarterly so far.

611
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,960
So they had another record
underlying free cash flow sort

612
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:56,760
of generation for the quarter
generating $223 million before

613
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,000
income tax of $68 million as
well.

614
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,360
I just reckon we'll be hearing
probably quite a few mentions of

615
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:08,680
the word record around sort of
gold producer cash generation

616
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,320
this this quarter with Aussie
gold where it's at the minute

617
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,720
and they're over 5000.
They're not fully.

618
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,640
They're not.
They've still got hedging.

619
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:17,840
As well.
No, no, they do.

620
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:19,880
Even more impressive?
No, that's right.

621
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,000
It's not a huge amount of
hedging, but they certainly do

622
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:26,280
have some hedged oz as well.
So they actually finished the

623
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,920
the quarter with cash and gold
of 657 million.

624
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:33,960
So that was a build of
155,000,000 from previous

625
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,960
December quarter.
So they it was about 80,000 oz

626
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,120
out of Mount Magnet and Edna May
they produced this quarter.

627
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:46,000
They also flagged AFY 25
guidance update which should be

628
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,680
sort of advised in the full
quarterly report which will be

629
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:52,920
out later this month.
So for context at at present

630
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:57,960
that FY25 guidance is 270 to
300,000 oz at an all in

631
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,560
sustaining of 1500 to 1700 bucks
an ounce Aussie.

632
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:06,280
So they've produced to date over
the last three quarters about

633
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,600
228,000 oz.
So if you divide that by 30,

634
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,680
that's about, you know, 76,000
oz 1/4 average.

635
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,600
So if you were to do like high
level, you know, back of the

636
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:22,800
envelope maths, if they just
maintain that average 76,000 oz

637
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:29,160
1/4 or you know, Q4 as well,
that would save them hit 304,000

638
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,040
ounces of production for the
yes, is it, which is a bit over

639
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:34,960
the sort of top end of their
current guidance.

640
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,800
So I think it's probably
reasonable to assume there might

641
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:40,880
be a slight uplift in that
guidance.

642
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,720
We'll have to obviously wait and
say till later this month.

643
00:36:43,720 --> 00:36:50,200
But just having a look at the
last quarters like the full

644
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,640
blown quarterly report they
Remilius did site sort of over

645
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:57,560
performance in Q grade,
particularly at breaker days.

646
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:01,440
You can see the little excerpt
from the quarterly there and

647
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:06,000
also Penny N performed better
than expected last quarter too.

648
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,480
There's a little excerpt from
the quarterly as well.

649
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:13,240
So perhaps it's these trends,
you know, continuing into this

650
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:16,560
current the March quarter that's
just gone.

651
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,640
And there was a brief sort of
update on the on the Spartan

652
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:25,400
transaction progress as well.
So they're, you know, working

653
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,240
towards implementation of the
schemes that are late July,

654
00:37:28,720 --> 00:37:31,720
early August of this year.
And obviously the integrated

655
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,720
study on Mount Magnet and
Dalgarenga.

656
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,680
We did say a couple days ago
sort of Spartan flagged in one

657
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:42,360
of their releases that that
study process had commenced in.

658
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,680
There's an independent expert
that's been appointed and

659
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:46,640
they're sort of apparently well
underway.

660
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:52,560
And Zeppy reckoned he and the,
you know, sort of board and the

661
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:56,680
team received overwhelmingly
positive feedback regarding the

662
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,200
potential of the combined
entity.

663
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,280
That just right.
That reminds me of the feedback

664
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:06,440
that was received when Ron
O'Sullivan, Joe and Cadrew

665
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:12,320
overwhelmingly positive that and
of that combined entity with

666
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,680
essentially Kadrill and now Ron
O'Sullivan.

667
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,520
I mean a man being now Kadrill.
Drilling with his bare hands?

668
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,960
I mean, I'm not sure how that
couldn't be overwhelmingly

669
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,280
positive.
Well, and I look and I think

670
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,040
the, you know, we ain't on about
the sample management, but like

671
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,520
he had that already as well.
And that's probably something

672
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,600
that we understated about what
he's brought into the entity,

673
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:35,080
the RC sample management.
Like you didn't need a friggin

674
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,680
independent expert to to.
Tell you that.

675
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,200
No.
Oh mate, it would have been.

676
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,240
What's the two conditions?
They would have been just.

677
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:46,080
Fair and reasonable.
Fair, extremely fair and

678
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:50,440
reasonable.
And mate mate, he's just

679
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:54,280
spearheading the K drill,
diamond drill and RC rigs just

680
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:55,360
into the earth.
Mate.

681
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:59,480
Taken taken sample and drill
budget management to the next

682
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,880
level.
Ryan O'Sullivan a legend of the

683
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:06,560
industry, a bloody great friend
of mine and I'm feeling cannot

684
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:08,920
be happier saying his name
everyday.

685
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,040
Get him drilling the RC and
diamond holes.

686
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,080
Go to Ron O'Sullivan, go K
drill.

687
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,560
Good energy.
Anyway, anyway, Ron, that's what

688
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:19,280
Ron gives me energy.
Let's imagine what he does to

689
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:23,640
the drillers.
Interesting with this, the

690
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,920
combined study for Spartan and
Remelia.

691
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:30,160
So just it's going to be so
interesting the the scenario

692
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,480
analysis they're going to run on
what the infrastructure is going

693
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,320
to be, if they're going to
utilize the Algar anger at all,

694
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:39,080
or they're going to try and
throw it all into Mount Magna or

695
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,240
no.
Spartan want to get to the oil

696
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,160
and punch an oil drive and get I
would imagine they're going to

697
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:49,200
get like, I don't know, 5 or
10,000 ton of oil and send it

698
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:52,440
down to mount magnet to see if
it's going to perform in that

699
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,640
mill because mount magnet is
like a ripping mat.

700
00:39:55,640 --> 00:39:59,400
Like I think it's I think it's
like 180 Micron.

701
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,880
They crushed the grind to like
courses anything and they're

702
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,200
getting like 96% recovery,
whereas we've seen in the met

703
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,800
results from never, never.
It looked a lot more grind

704
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,520
sensitive and 48 hour residence
time.

705
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,480
So like they need to get down to
75.

706
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:20,320
They're looking at 56 I think.
So we'll grind sensitive stuff.

707
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,400
Throwing that in with all the.
Very core stuff at mount magnet.

708
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,880
Will that lift the cost of all
the mount magnet processing or

709
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,960
would it be better to make a
smaller mill?

710
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,200
That is all the grind sensitive
stuff goes to a dagger.

711
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:36,000
And.
Around SO.

712
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:40,160
But yeah, that and then probably
about God, there'd be 10's and

713
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,960
10s of other factors just sort
of all wrapped into that

714
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,640
scenario analysis.
So it'll be fascinating to say

715
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,600
what they sort of come to as
part of that process and and the

716
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,560
sort of the combined group
moving forward.

717
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:57,000
So yeah, one to watch.
So that was Remelius and I

718
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:01,320
thought a quick other sort of
couple of quarterly mentions.

719
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,880
So holy metals for those who
don't know about a 230 mil

720
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,160
market cap company with a silver
zinc restart project.

721
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:12,400
And I'm pretty sure I was
shocked when I saw this, the

722
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,280
first full blown, like full
blown quarterly report with the

723
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:21,000
5B and everything out on the 2nd
of April, which is a very

724
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,280
impressive, well done, nice and
early impressive.

725
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:27,280
Indeed.
So just a refresher on on them.

726
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:31,000
So they're restarting the
Endeavour silver zinc mine in

727
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:35,480
the Cobar region of NSW.
A couple months ago they raised

728
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:41,320
35 mil at $0.80, pretty much
just working capital sort of

729
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,920
during this sort of ramp up
restart period and some also

730
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:49,000
some exploration as well.
They're targeting first silver

731
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:52,000
and zinc production in this
current quarter.

732
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,560
We're in the June quarter.
So there's wet commissioning of

733
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:58,480
the meal scheduled for this
month, April 1st all processing

734
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:03,240
and concentrate production next
month in May with sort of first,

735
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,920
first cash flow to follow in
June.

736
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:11,240
And the guy, the team there was
saying, you know underground and

737
00:42:11,240 --> 00:42:15,040
surface redevelopment sort of is
continuing in line with the mine

738
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:18,440
ready start plan.
There was a first or production

739
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:23,000
blast completed mid March last
month and all is currently being

740
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,640
stockpiled underground until the
commencement of crashing and

741
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,720
hoisting in early May.
So they've got current cash and

742
00:42:29,720 --> 00:42:32,160
mind you this is at 1st of April
and I'll explain why in a

743
00:42:32,160 --> 00:42:38,000
raising of 35,000,000 cash.
And then they've also got US $10

744
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:45,000
million from Ocean Partners, a
prepaid facility, undrawn as

745
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,240
well.
And Macca got their stake in a

746
00:42:47,240 --> 00:42:50,800
day so.
They took a 4.3% stake in Poly

747
00:42:50,800 --> 00:42:55,160
Metals about a year ago at $0.35
a share for two and a half

748
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,200
million.
Oh, made a bit of a bit of buck

749
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,360
on that.
She's yeah, it's in the 90s, I

750
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:00,640
think now.
Yeah.

751
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,280
So they're and they were going
to basically invest another two

752
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,000
and a half million at $0.35 when
certain CPS were met.

753
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:12,000
So in this quarterly report that
come out the other day, so just

754
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:15,040
post the quarter end, Poly
Metals advised that those CPS

755
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,480
have now actually been met and
this sort of additional

756
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,760
subscription amount of the two
and a half $1,000,000 from Mac

757
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:25,080
has been completed.
So they've got that extra two

758
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:29,280
and a half million in the door,
issued those shares to Mac and

759
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:33,520
like a couple of the CPS, which
was a water supply agreement and

760
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:37,680
a zinc milling arrangement were
executed as well.

761
00:43:37,720 --> 00:43:44,000
And the there's about a 30K
rough, you know, as the crow

762
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:49,080
flies sort of distance between
Max project and and holy metals

763
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,760
Endeavour.
So that was them.

764
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:57,640
And the last one I had was a
quarterly operational update

765
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,400
from Metro.
They're the 350 mil mark cap

766
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,560
book site producer in far North
QLD.

767
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:09,480
So they've started their 2025
production season.

768
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,120
They completed recommissioning
during the second-half of March

769
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:16,400
and loaded their first vessel
for the context bane.

770
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,960
They typically close for a few
months of the Aussie summer due

771
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:24,880
to the the wet season.
So they typically don't ship too

772
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:27,720
much in basically the first
quarter of the calendar year.

773
00:44:27,720 --> 00:44:32,000
So like they did 184,000 wet
metric tons this this quarter.

774
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:36,320
So far this quarter gone rather.
At least I don't have to

775
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,240
complain about bad weather, but
they just know it's coming.

776
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:41,720
Yeah, they know it's coming and
they planned for it.

777
00:44:41,720 --> 00:44:43,320
Yeah.
It's that that's easy.

778
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,600
That's easy.
So this calendar year their

779
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:52,320
shipment target is a bit of a
step up 6 1/2 to 7 million wet

780
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:55,400
metric tons.
And now this is post a 30 mix

781
00:44:55,720 --> 00:44:59,560
$36 million expansion of sort
of, you know capacity

782
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,360
processing, loading all those
sorts of things.

783
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,240
For context, they did 5.7
million tons last calendar year,

784
00:45:06,240 --> 00:45:08,680
which in itself was a record for
them.

785
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,520
They did say they had
demonstrated sort of around that

786
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,160
7 million tonne per annum run
rate in Q4 of last year.

787
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,920
So hopefully they can really hit
their straps coming into this

788
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,000
year with the expansion sort of
essentially complete.

789
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,720
And I thought I'd just touch
briefly on alumina and bauxite

790
00:45:27,720 --> 00:45:30,480
prices.
So as you know you guys have

791
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,320
discussed previously, I had hit
quite a peak sort of back into

792
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:36,480
last year with everything that
was going on with Guinea.

793
00:45:36,720 --> 00:45:40,360
They have come off a little bit
since then, but it seemed to

794
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:46,120
have sort of remained relatively
stable or sort of come off has

795
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:50,080
slowed down a fair bit.
But even you can see in this

796
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:53,680
graph here from Metro's
operational update from last

797
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:57,720
month, courtesy of ACM Group,
even if you look at from

798
00:45:57,720 --> 00:46:01,400
December last year to sort of
early March of this year.

799
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:05,400
And it's still quite a decent
improvement, although not as big

800
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,200
as that sort of spike in the
middle there.

801
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,120
You know, Metro reckon bauxite
demands, you know, continuing to

802
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:16,000
grow with sort of new Chinese
coastal refinery capacity coming

803
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,960
online and the domestic bauxite
supply in China decreasing.

804
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:23,160
There's obviously still a bit
of, you know toing and froing

805
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:27,240
and sort of unpredictable sort
of stuff going on with Guinea

806
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,000
and they've actually got most of
their product under contracts.

807
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:37,480
So they were saying sort of 75%
of projected Q2, which is the

808
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:41,760
current quarter we're in volume
is open to quarterly pricing

809
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,520
sort of resets and they expect
to experience contract price

810
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:50,680
gains sort of as you know the
the commodity prices increase

811
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:54,240
over the last period of time.
So I'm curious to say what their

812
00:46:54,240 --> 00:46:58,080
sort of average realised price
will be for this coming quarter

813
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:02,320
versus what they sort of
finished up the year with and

814
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,640
they got added to the All Ords
in the last month too.

815
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,760
I assume the alumina and bauxite
prices come down because it

816
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:11,760
hasn't been talked about as much
when it was.

817
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:13,680
When things aren't getting
talked about, that's probably

818
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:14,720
because the price is coming
down.

819
00:47:14,720 --> 00:47:17,000
The correlation, yeah, it's
something like something like

820
00:47:17,000 --> 00:47:17,880
that.
Go gold.

821
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,560
Well, Speaking of gold, actually
that was we just before we're

822
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,560
about to start recording as
well, we saw an announcement

823
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:31,200
come out from Minerals 260 who
are acquiring the Bulla bullying

824
00:47:31,200 --> 00:47:35,560
gold project.
They've successfully raised $220

825
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:39,680
million to complete that
acquisition.

826
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,320
So it appears on a. 30 mil
market cap.

827
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:44,640
Yeah, yeah.
No, that's right.

828
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:49,280
So that included 12 million
invested by the company's

829
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:53,280
chairman, Tim Goyder.
And that acquisition will

830
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,200
apparently the completion of
that will occur later today.

831
00:47:56,720 --> 00:48:00,880
And it seems like Minerals 260
is on track to recommence

832
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:04,040
trading as part of, you know,
going through that whole RE

833
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:06,880
compliance process with ASX next
week.

834
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:09,800
Yeah.
Right, just close it off quickly

835
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,400
of our sensational JC.
Oh buddy, just.

836
00:48:12,400 --> 00:48:16,040
No worries you.
Are welcome anytime please come

837
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:21,240
for the money miners more the
affair that saw that Aspen I

838
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,520
don't know if anyone's following
Aspen on their watch list their

839
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:29,600
accommodation provider they
bought the Paris Grove

840
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:34,040
accommodation village from
Albemarle for 32 and a bit

841
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:38,960
million and I'm pretty sure the
cost to build that was about.

842
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:43,680
How many times that?
5 or 6 times so that's.

843
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:47,400
I think you're on the money.
That's a real look.

844
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,200
We knew that they weren't
expanding anymore down at

845
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:54,280
Kempton, I'm pretty sure.
But this is really solidifying

846
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:58,400
Albemarle's intentions of
growing lithium in Australia.

847
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:02,280
I would can interpret so if
they're willing to sell it for

848
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,120
that so and probably a
reflection of their balance

849
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:09,200
sheet as well if they're.
Think you spot on Maddie.

850
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:12,480
Hopefully a hopefully a bit of
fruit for for Aspen.

851
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,280
Yeah, go go Aspen mate.
Might have to start following.

852
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:16,920
I wonder if the team broker
reports on them.

853
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,480
Chuck them on the watch list.
Chuck them on the watch list.

854
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,720
You know, was also providing a
bit of fruit, Maddie.

855
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:25,760
Who's that?
JC.

856
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:29,400
Oh, I think you can tell me.
Oh well, Oh well, it's a bloody

857
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,560
underground operates conference.
You can still get a ticket.

858
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:35,280
Get them now.
They're they're they're loving

859
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,520
us.
If you use the code pretty much

860
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:42,160
100 bucks off MOM 100.
Also for the GRX conference that

861
00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:45,000
I am going to now, I'm going to
GRX.

862
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,400
I've decided the best thing for
myself is to go to more

863
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,280
conferences this year.
So I'm being GRX conference

864
00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:56,200
Brisbane 120 twenty 2nd of May 2
discounts on off 190 or 160

865
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:59,880
bucks off links in the show
notes our great partners as well

866
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:04,040
at MMS grounded savvy Ground
sports, our insurance, WA Water

867
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:09,200
boards Co drill, Quattro, Casio
Salt services, Black Diamond

868
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:13,160
Drilling services and Cross
Boundary Energy Rd.

869
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:14,320
Rd.
Rd.

870
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:17,240
Rd.
Information contained in this

871
00:50:17,240 --> 00:50:20,000
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

872
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,640
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

873
00:50:22,720 --> 00:50:24,720
or needs of any particular
person.

874
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:28,040
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

875
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:31,120
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

876
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,800
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.