Inside a $3.8B Gold Deal + The US Wakes Up

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I just got the Spidey senses
that there were activists at

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play a gold Rd. from from
certain times Was there?

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Or was that just a mere
conception?

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Yeah, I think that's nice.
Yeah, you.

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Duncan Gibbs, we are privileged
to have you sit and join us for

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a weekly wrap.
Everything going on in the

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mining industry.
You've got a a long and sort of

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colourful history in the
industry from Anglo Gold, lots

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of experience from Sunrise Dam
to Tropicana to Greer and most

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recently of course, a fantastic
takeover by your JV partners at

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Goldfields.
So thanks for sitting down with

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us.
Yeah.

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Thanks, Jody.
Very fresh too mate.

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So this episode going out 5:00
PM Friday.

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Gold Gold Rd. is officially
taken over by Goldfields.

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Yeah, that's right.
So effective date today, so

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binding on both parties.
You know, it's a couple of weeks

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before we hit implementation.
I'll be about mid-october.

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The most important thing we have
to do next is make sure that

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shareholders get all the money.
Of course, you know, that's big

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special dividend coming through
about $0.44 as well as the full

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consideration, yeah, that the
Goldfields is paying.

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Fantastic and it could not have
come at a better time at the

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gold price just tearing through
3700 dollars.

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Yeah.
And look, I mean, gold price has

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taken a, you know, a recent kind
of rocket.

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You know, where it goes next is
I'm not quite sure.

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I mean, I, I guess I always take
the view if you look at gold

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price, gold price in five years
time will always be higher than

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it is today.
You've only got a gold price

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chart.
But I mean, I start start to

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think the market's getting
pretty frothy at the moment as

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well, so.
Yeah.

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I mean, it's kind of interesting
because when you started your

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career in in the 90s shell
Acacia there gold had come off

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20 odd years of going going in
the opposite direction and then

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coinciding with your rise up
through the industry, you've had

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that tailwind be, you know, near
on ever present.

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Yeah.
I mean, look, I kind of

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graduated in 1997, which, you
know, kind of coincided with the

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gold boom then.
And and if people remember, it

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was kind of Black October.
So you know, I had the massive

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share market crash, but at the
same time I kind of came out

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into a really bull market.
I mean, I had something like 7

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different job offers as a red
and you know, that was

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everything from the majors right
through.

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So it's like, you know, pick
which one you wanted to do.

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So it's a fascinating time to
come through.

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But I mean, like a lot of people
I've lived with through multiple

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cycles and for example, when we
were developing Sunrise Dam, I

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mean, gold was down at about 300
bucks an ounce.

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And you know, 4 1/2 gram open
pit.

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And you know, getting the other
economics, the kind of work, you

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know, I mean by the time we
actually got it into production,

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I mean, it basically did pay
back in less than three months.

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One wasn't all, but.
Before we, we, we, we cover all

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of the hot stories of the week
and my God, it's been a pretty

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remarkable week.
Crazy stuff going on throughout

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the gold space.
Your, your specialization,

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Duncan.
Also just some remarkable stuff

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going on with, with, yeah, US
resource nationalism.

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We're just seeing that in, in,
in, in spades at the moment.

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We're going to cover all those
big stories.

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But first, I do want it.
I do want to, I mean, we've got

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the lucky privilege of speaking
to you in the aftermath of, of a

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$3.7 billion takeover.
And if you'd be so kind to

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indulge us, we've got some
questions about how this kind

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of, you know, deal came
together.

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What happened behind the scenes.
We were busy speculating, you

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know, frivolously on, on, on
many episodes of our podcast and

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also in our, our, our daily
newsletter.

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And yeah, like to the extent
you're willing to, to share with

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us some details, I kind of I
really want to know like

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obviously gold fields, there
was, there was a, a standstill

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in the original JV agreement
with, with Goldfields.

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Now at what point or did did
Goldfields ever submit an MBIO

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throughout the the journey of
like the the last like kind of

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10 years or or did any kind of
come to fruition recently?

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So I'll just start by correcting
you on the on the price.

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So I think if you actually to do
the numbers on the final closing

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crisis, it's 3.8 billion.
So we're, we're gonna, we make

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because we've, we throughout
this process, probably we, we've

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been, well, we've been singly
focused on one thing, which is

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maximising value, of course.
So, so yeah, look, I mean, what

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you've said is correct.
I mean, there was a standstill

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agreement.
And I mean, fundamentally the

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purpose of that was to prevent
gold fields from kind of

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creeping up on the register and
then kind of take over by

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stealth with no premium through
to shareholders.

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And, you know, it was a
mechanism to protect the

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interest of shareholders.
I guess, you know, I mean, I've

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been on either side of deals
and, you know, multiple

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conversations with peers and you
know, there's always

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conversations going on between
all the gold companies.

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And look, I think most
transactions, if they occur on a

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friendly basis.
Well, you know, most of them

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occur on a friendly basis,
right?

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And that usually starts with a
conversation before any pieces

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of paper kind of exchanged.
In this case.

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In this case, we've kind of got
an NBIO in the e-mail and you

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know, given that everybody kind
of knows each other here, then

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we've, I mean, as a starting
point that was pretty like

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unusual as a way to start
constructive engagement.

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You know, from there, I think
it's all well played out in the

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media and Chairman put out a
chairman's letter that kind of

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outlined the facts.
And I mean, that was really to

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get our clear message of these
other facts as far as we're

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concerned and what occurred.
So you can read, you know, all

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of that chairman's letter for
for the detail.

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But in simple terms, I mean,
there was, you know, kind of

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several days of discussions was
really focused around the single

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issue of price.
And is this subsequent to the

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bear hug or?
No, this was subsequent to the

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initial you know, NBIO and of
course the NBIO came with

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obligations on confidentiality
to us and you know it's non

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binding and therefore you know
not marking announceable

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etcetera.
So I mean, board and management

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acted accordingly to to all of
those conditions.

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As I said, I mean, you know,
extensive discussion around

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transaction and all the rest of
it.

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And I think, I mean, if I've
described it in the past, I

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mean, Mama one O 1 is, is, you
know, accept the first price

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that comes out, you know,
there's events to be done.

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And you know, so it was very
surprising to us that then that

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was basically published by, you
know, Goldfields and they put it

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up at kind of 2:00 in the
afternoon our time.

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Interestingly, we're actually in
the middle of a shareholder

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briefing and you know, one of
the guys there kind of read his

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Bloomberg screen off about, you
know, we're under a takeover

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place.
So that was probably about the

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shortest investor meeting with
with with Brian who's just

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joined us as the brand new
minted head of investor

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relations.
So it was, it was quite a, quite

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an interesting kind of first day
of the job.

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And I mean, I guess something
there's been a lot of kind of

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media and I mean, I've, I've,
you know, been quite a lot in

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the in the media and what have
you through that whole journey.

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I'm a strategy it worked for for
Goldfields, though I can ensure

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it.
It's not the friendliest

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approach, but but it got the
outcome done and and yes, there

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was an uplift but and it became
friendly but but the bear hug to

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be hard worked, you know.
Oh.

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Look, I mean, it's a strategy if
you like to breakthrough the

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standstill, but there was always
the ability to Goldfields to

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walk through the front door and
put an offer on the table and

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sort all of that behind, you
know, but you know, behind the

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media rather than playing it out
in the media.

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And I don't know that Goldfields
have actually set themselves in

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good stead for the future
because, you know, if you're a

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prospective JV partner of
Goldfields, they're going to be

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reading about, you know, how
this is all played out.

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The other thing I'll kind of
share with you is a bear hug.

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I mean, it's a kind of an
interesting strategy.

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I mean, yes, it's a way to force
the hand of the target company

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to the table.
And I think there's a clearly a

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place to do that.
I mean, if you've got a company

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that's just being, you know,
difficult and they're not acting

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in the best interest of
shareholders and it's different,

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definitely a way to kind of
breakthrough and, and, and, you

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know, it's occurred in the past
and, and I think when things

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have got to that kind of
impasse.

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But of course, if you think
about it from the point of view

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of shareholders, you've then got
to convince the shareholders of

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Gold Rd. that they're getting a
fair price.

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But if you're a Goldfield
shareholder, you've got to

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convince your own shareholders
you're not paying too much.

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So who are you lying to when
you're doing that?

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When Gold Rd. went into to
trading halt on the on the

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Friday 9 minutes after the
director special e-mail revealed

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in Word on the decline that
maybe Gold rated received her

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best and final offer from from
Goldfields.

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Walk me through that part.
Was it us?

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Were we the?
Were we the lake?

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Yeah.
And I'm going to share with you

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that, so, so we've reported that
as a media, yeah.

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You could have, you could have
sourced us.

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But let's say that some of the
mainstream media journalists

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were quite incredulous.
That's how it's reported to me

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that the source of this was was
YouTube.

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That's hilarious.
Well, I I.

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Appreciate it was actually quite
a nice moment because I mean

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that we out a newsletter is
widely read.

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It's like 15,000 people read it
every day.

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But but for a yeah, for like the
board of a, you know, $3 billion

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company or.
Whatever 3.8.

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Whatever the number was before
the takeover to take, to take

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our rumours sort of seriously
and and report it as such, like

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that was, it was, it was, it was
a good moment for our

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newsletter.
So yeah, I guess the only thing

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that kind of went through my
mind at the time is, is when's

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that sick knocking on your door?
But I mean, look, the leak

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occurred at the time,
fundamentally when we started

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opening up the data room or gold
fields to do DD.

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And we went from it being
extremely tight to actually a

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lot of people having knowledge
and underneath a bit of

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scuttlebutt.
I'm not saying necessarily gold

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fields personally, but you know,
it goes from one thing to

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another to another to another.
And yeah, Oh yeah, exactly where

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you got hold of all of that bit
of news flow.

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But so.
Sometimes leaks do come from

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people who have like, an angle
to want to disrupt.

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This was not that.
I'll never tell you where the

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leak come from, but like, I was
just lucky I found out.

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Really.
Yeah.

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Yeah.
And and look, I mean, I was

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think, you know, there's a lot
of these leaks occurring and I

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mean, you know, the Anglo gold
stuff are going in the in the

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last couple of days is, you
know, it's kind of another

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thing.
I mean, you know, half the time

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it's my view is there are people
with some commercial interest as

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to why they're putting that
information.

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Yeah, it's usually the first
linked, the first listed

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advisor.
No, I'm joking.

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Yeah, but I mean, you know,
often it's going to be people in

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financial circles.
So whether it's advisors or

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even.
Fund managers.

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Fund managers, yeah, because.
BD Teams.

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Well, and you know if you've got
multiple companies bidding on an

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asset or whatever, we throw your
other opposition under the bus

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100.
Percent.

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It's always in someone's
interest.

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Because you know, if everybody
sees somebody's come equity rise

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or what have you, that kills
their share price and kills

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their that's right.
I I think fundamentally it needs

225
00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:03,680
to have much greater regulation
than it does.

226
00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,160
The yeah, I totally agree with
that.

227
00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:11,160
I do think there's there's too,
there's too much on the leaking

228
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:15,840
front, which could be cut down
pretty, pretty easily, I think.

229
00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,840
Yeah, I appreciate that.
Sign up for the director

230
00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:21,880
special, guys.
You'll you'll get word on the

231
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,040
decline in your inbox every
morning. moneymind.com/subscribe

232
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,000
it.
It, it is interesting.

233
00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,800
You don't see a lot of it and
you don't see a lot of it.

234
00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:34,600
It for, for an obvious reason
there that I keep kind of coming

235
00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:39,080
back to, you know, the, the six
or 12 months in the lead up to

236
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,720
the deal as well.
And as was reported in the

237
00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:47,280
media, Gold Rd. was pretty close
to to doing a deal on on

238
00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:52,400
Greenstone as well as a JV
partner with with Equinox.

239
00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,480
How do you reflect on, on like
the media reporting of that and,

240
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:58,080
and you know, like how, how
close was that deal to being

241
00:12:58,080 --> 00:12:59,400
done?
And if it were not for the lake,

242
00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:00,440
do you think it would have been
done?

243
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,600
Look, we were in that process.
I think it's fair to say that

244
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,600
hit it yet to get to offer
stage.

245
00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,640
Yeah, there was an initial
permanently offer stage, which

246
00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,800
is really just to get you in the
data room for the phase two

247
00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:18,320
process, but it got yet to get
to anything that was was

248
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,320
binding.
Yeah.

249
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:26,080
And that that process was
clearly leaked and and I guess I

250
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,240
mean, unfortunately we've been
on the receiving end of of a few

251
00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:32,000
of those.
All right.

252
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,000
I kind of think that a lot of
the time that's been done for

253
00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:38,040
deliberate market kind of
purposes.

254
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:40,520
There there's lots of different
types of shareholders, right?

255
00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,880
And, and different shareholders
have different time frames,

256
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:45,960
different outlooks.
Some of them care about the

257
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,400
immediate 15% uplift, some of
them care about long term

258
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:52,320
sustainable value creation that
can be a bit more gradual but

259
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,920
maybe maybe more certain.
I got I just got the Spidey

260
00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:00,680
senses that there were activists
at play in a a gold Rd. from

261
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,040
from certain times.
What was there?

262
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:04,560
Or was that just a me perception
thing?

263
00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:06,440
Yeah, I think that's largely a
you perception.

264
00:14:09,680 --> 00:14:12,720
Look, I mean, I think I mean
shareholders to me, I mean at

265
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,280
the end of the day are quite
short term focused even even the

266
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,320
long funds.
And yeah, you know, if you can't

267
00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,760
look at it as a fund manager, I
mean, a lot of their incentives

268
00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,240
are driven about how they
perform relative to the market

269
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:24,760
over a three or three months or
12 month period.

270
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,520
So they, you know, as an
inherent kind of principle, they

271
00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,520
have an obligation to outperform
the market.

272
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:32,600
The takeover comes through the
door.

273
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,080
Well, that's a, that's a give
me, isn't it?

274
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:39,600
And I, I, I tend to think that
for a lot of your funds, I mean,

275
00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,040
that just drives an outcome.
They want to see the best

276
00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,160
premium that, you know,
management can achieve.

277
00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:47,800
But there is only one outcome
that's going to be delivered

278
00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,440
once you're kind of into that
into that kind of space.

279
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:55,200
You know, as you look through
the the transaction that we've

280
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,960
done, I mean, ultimately there
are a number of shareholders,

281
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,520
you know, recently seemed a part
of the register indicated that

282
00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,720
they wanted to accept in at the
revised price.

283
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,680
I guess I saw, I mean, once that
hit it, it was kind of game over

284
00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:12,120
left to me.
I'd have pushed a bit harder,

285
00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:16,480
but but you know, at that point
you're you're negotiating kind

286
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,800
of position is kind of spent.
One of one of the, one of the

287
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,440
like the, the markets, like I
think there's like fit, there's

288
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:26,840
fair critiques, there's unfit
critiques.

289
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:31,080
And one of the critiques of, of
Gold Rd. was like a high, high

290
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:34,680
overhead and like not, not, not
the operational kind of control.

291
00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,920
Of course, that high overhead
was to find exploration because

292
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:40,080
you know that there's a return
on investment of that and and

293
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:44,080
gold Gold Rd. had a, you know, a
BD team that was across a lot of

294
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,480
the the opportunities, but it's
hard to kind of like measure the

295
00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:49,560
ROI of that.
And so one of the critiques was

296
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,800
the the high overhead.
Well, what's the NPV of that?

297
00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:56,120
You know, over a long time frame
could be quite substantial.

298
00:15:56,360 --> 00:16:00,040
Was there ever like a defence
consideration that maybe, maybe

299
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,600
there is a place for for
Goldgrove the company to

300
00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,880
actually exist on an ongoing
basis, but with a much lower

301
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,800
overhead and that'd be a more
attractive thing to

302
00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,960
shareholders, you know, vis A
vis than a takeover of of

303
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:13,560
Goldfields?
Yeah.

304
00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:19,680
Look, I mean we obviously looked
at what the strategies for the

305
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:23,800
company were and I mean Gold Rd.
in reality is one of the very

306
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,160
few larger companies, one of the
few producers is actually out

307
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:31,400
there looking for a new mine
that's a quite unique space.

308
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,400
I mean, most of the new mine
exploration has been done by by

309
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,400
the real small, you know, sort
of penny dreadful end of

310
00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,960
juniors.
It'll say a lot of those are

311
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,960
actually minding the market
rather than than really focused

312
00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,640
on on making discoveries.
I mean that's not always true,

313
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:53,240
but a lot of them are operating
kind of subscale to actually be

314
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:57,160
able to to be effective.
If you really look at the big

315
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,000
discoveries that I mean I'm kind
of talking with the plus 5

316
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:04,160
million oz discoveries made in
WA, They all have kind of common

317
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,520
themes.
I mean, they're made by

318
00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:12,880
companies that, you know, have
put together large coherent

319
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:16,160
ground holdings that cover, say
an entire Greenstone belt.

320
00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,480
So that's true of Gruyere, it's
true of Hemi, and it's true of

321
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:22,800
kind of the Tropicana Discovery.
Of course, in one way or the

322
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,240
other, I've been personally
involved in all of those either

323
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,120
through Tropicana where, you
know, I let the team that made

324
00:17:29,120 --> 00:17:31,840
the Discovery Gruyere, which
I've came into kind of midway

325
00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,800
through the construction and and
Hemi, we're obviously a major

326
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:39,400
investor into the grey.
I mean, the key guys between in

327
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,520
the Gray all work for me
historically.

328
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,680
So when I got a direct
connection in so basically all

329
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,920
the all the big discoveries made
in WR in the last 20 odd years.

330
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,600
So, you know, you kind of have
to look at what, where are those

331
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,120
camera, the discoveries coming
out of, they're coming out of

332
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,240
what is relatively unloved
ground in all of them, large

333
00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:07,600
coherent ground holdings.
And, and you know, companies

334
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,400
that kind of have the conviction
of, of doing that kind of work.

335
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,680
And, and that's basically this
kind of this key strategic

336
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,400
element that we were trying to
do in Gold Rd. as opposed to

337
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,600
putting old mines back into
production.

338
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,880
And, you know, with the run up
in the gold price, perhaps we

339
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,800
should have had a finger in that
pie because clearly that's been

340
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,920
successful, but that relies on a
run up in the gold price to be

341
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,400
successful.
And and of course, that's paid

342
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,240
dividends for the people in that
kind of space.

343
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,880
Did a takeover of De Grey ever
get close?

344
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:40,800
Look, you've got to say that
there were multiple discussions,

345
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:44,240
but really did it get to, you
know, hard kind of clear

346
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,200
negotiation space?
Well, really not right.

347
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:53,520
The, the challenge, I guess with
De Grey for Gold Rd. is, I mean,

348
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,760
it's an amazing discovery.
It's easily the best of the the

349
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,080
big discoveries made in the last
20 odd years.

350
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,160
If there had been any of the
other discoveries, it would have

351
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:06,040
been within the capacity for us
to have done a takeover on a

352
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,640
more assertive basis.
But you know, once the market

353
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:13,680
cap of the grey went well beyond
that of gold, Rd. really

354
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,240
actually made closing a
transaction pretty challenging.

355
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,320
Korea Korea's future was going
underground right now with going

356
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,320
going underground and and the
likes what what ground support

357
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:26,560
would you've used if you if you
went.

358
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:28,200
Well, I've got to say Sandy.
Sandy is.

359
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,520
The correct answer.
That is the correct answer.

360
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,120
Sandvik ground support mate.
We had the privilege of going to

361
00:19:35,120 --> 00:19:37,520
the Sandvik facility at Kewdale.
We've spoken a bunch about it,

362
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:41,600
but it is magnificent to see
bolts, mesh, all these things

363
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,840
actually get galvanized.
It was, it was kind of eye

364
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,440
opening to see that and the team
out there is a bunch of legends,

365
00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:50,320
over 300 people working for
Sandvik ground support here in

366
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,640
Australia, which is fantastic to
see.

367
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,920
And yeah, supplying the mine
sites all throughout WA, all

368
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,800
throughout Australia, also using
steel from Port Kembla in, in

369
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,840
Australia as well in part as
well as source from other places

370
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,800
as well.
But it was fantastic to see that

371
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,440
sort of manufacturing in
Australia from a fantastic team

372
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,520
that yeah, we were lucky enough
to to go and see all the all the

373
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,840
machines punching out these
things for the industry.

374
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,320
I hope it was a condition of the
deal to Goldfields to make sure

375
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,320
you use the underground support
as a Korea goes underground.

376
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,800
Well, I mean the the Scheme
implementation deed is a public

377
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,600
document, so if you can find it
in there.

378
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:29,160
Awesome.
Go send the ground support.

379
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:37,000
What what was what was the the
impasse for for a gold grow tie

380
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:40,360
up with any of the other kind of
mid tier producers as well?

381
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:42,760
Oh, look, I'll thank you pretty
much.

382
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:43,800
Yeah.
I mean, value.

383
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,160
I mean, I guess I don't want to
get into the detail of everybody

384
00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,920
we might have spoken to, but,
you know, there's stuff that's

385
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,160
been in the paper.
But I mean, we've spoken for,

386
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:57,520
you know, half the ASX 200, you
know, kind of companies, right?

387
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:04,760
Yeah, well, it's, it's a, it's a
bloody exciting time to be have

388
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:09,240
a specialization finding gold
because the yellow metal is

389
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,240
worth a hell of a lot.
And like you say, mate, the

390
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,800
juniors are absolutely going
berserk.

391
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,360
Maybe some of them have
something, a substance, maybe

392
00:21:16,360 --> 00:21:17,880
some of them are mining the
market.

393
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:22,720
We're kind of hoping to get your
expertise to talk about a couple

394
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,400
of those today as.
Well, we've seen a lot this

395
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,960
week, specifically the US
starting to cut rates inflation

396
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,800
still not within their their
band since 2021.

397
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,600
That's a that's a long time now.
And very interestingly, we've

398
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,840
seen ETF inflows into the gold
space for the first time in

399
00:21:38,120 --> 00:21:39,840
quite some time.
So that sort of indicates that

400
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,600
perhaps retail is starting to
pay attention.

401
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,320
Duncan, you've got a background
as a, as a GO then obviously

402
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,280
done plenty of time working
through studies, building minds,

403
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,400
managing teams.
But if we, if we tap into your

404
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,200
experience as a Goa, lot of the
juniors like you mentioned

405
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:56,520
earlier have been running
lately.

406
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,280
So I want to run through some of
the exploration results that

407
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,200
have been exciting and one that
will be near and dear to you

408
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,760
that you've spent a bit of time
looking at is Yandel.

409
00:22:06,120 --> 00:22:09,320
So they had a terrific run up
last year, fell away.

410
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,080
And then just recently again
they've they've rocketed on the

411
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:16,040
back of sort of 1.2g / 50 odd
metres kind of hits.

412
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,680
How do you think about that
region specifically and then the

413
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:19,960
the results that they've come up
with?

414
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,000
Yeah.
So, I mean, Gold Rd. is actually

415
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,880
a significant shareholder.
We hold about 17% in Yandel.

416
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,560
And I mean that originally came
through the DJI Gold

417
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,160
acquisition, which of course is
what gave us the initial kind of

418
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:31,840
cornerstone position in the
grey.

419
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,040
But I've always quite liked it
and we've participated in model

420
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:40,040
equity raises and the specific
area that that we liked

421
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,920
basically where they've got
these, these current

422
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,360
intersections.
So they've now got, you know, a

423
00:22:45,360 --> 00:22:47,720
couple of kind of 50 odd meter
intersections that, you know,

424
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,440
1.2 or whatever it is, you know,
400 meters apart.

425
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,520
So there's there's enough space
there to, you know, put a

426
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,160
reasonable size resource to me
to, to me, it's still very early

427
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,400
days.
And I think I'd almost like a

428
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,080
bearish view.
There's going to be a small pit

429
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:06,120
there and maybe it could turn
out to be plus a million oz And,

430
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,320
but there's a lot of drilling
that still needs to be done.

431
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:14,000
And you know, I think there's a
pretty, pretty capable team with

432
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:19,400
Chris and, and, and, and the
guys in, in Gandal, you know, as

433
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,640
an investment proposition, it's
a bit interesting because the

434
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,720
register is extremely tightly
held.

435
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,440
So there's no liquidity in the
stock.

436
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:32,480
And, and some of the former DGO
kind of cohort a big in Gandal.

437
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,480
So you've had us and a couple of
other major shareholders.

438
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,000
There is no liquidity and of
course what goldfields do with

439
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,600
that position.
You know that now the the gold

440
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,600
Rd. acquisitions kind of
finished to make could be quite

441
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,600
material of course, and it could
go either way.

442
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,840
It's either going to be a piss
pot or a jackpot story of your

443
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:55,360
investor, depending on, you
know, if goldfields want to grab

444
00:23:55,360 --> 00:23:56,640
it.
Although if they want to exit,

445
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,160
of course, then you've got that,
you know, block as an overhang.

446
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,480
Yeah, absolutely.
If we jump to another country,

447
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:07,920
New Zealand and Santana, there's
a a project, the Rise and Shine

448
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,000
project being built out over
there and they did some step out

449
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,080
drilling that came up with some
results.

450
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:14,840
Did you have the chance to take
a look at these ones?

451
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,240
Yeah.
Look, I'm kind of familiar with

452
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,560
that project and then, you know,
it's something about myself.

453
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,800
I mean, anything that looks like
a, you know, discovery

454
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,040
development kind of project you
keep an eye on and you know,

455
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,320
what's kind of going on, you
talk to them.

456
00:24:25,120 --> 00:24:27,720
Yeah, I like, I mean, I like it.
I think it's, you know, got

457
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,960
pretty good chances of getting
up as being a mine.

458
00:24:31,360 --> 00:24:34,040
I think, you know, New Zealand
again has had been a kind of a

459
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,240
jurisdiction that's had quite a
lot of perming challenges, but I

460
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,720
think they're in a pretty good
position.

461
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,360
They'll ultimately get there
with all of that.

462
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:43,840
And you know, New Zealand's
getting a new buzz around it.

463
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,320
You know, you've got Jake Klein
also buying up federation and I

464
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,800
mean, to me, there's a natural
strategy there sooner or later

465
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,000
to the kind of doing it New
Zealand kind of consolidation

466
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,960
play.
You know, and there's if you are

467
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,400
the kind of explorers, things
like Siren and Rua or what have

468
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:01,960
you pretty active in that part
of the world.

469
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:06,240
And you know, it's, you know, an
area because of some of the

470
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,160
regulatory issues and sort of
green tape and all the rest of

471
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,600
it that's had a lot of lack of
exploration.

472
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,160
So I'll get your way through all
of those.

473
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,560
It's that becomes an opportunity
right Do.

474
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:22,800
You think that that Oceania's
assets come into the mix in a in

475
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,520
a larger kind of consolidation
play under Jake there?

476
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,280
Yeah.
I really don't know where

477
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,920
Oxiana, where where Oceana's
kind of mindset is, to be

478
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,520
honest.
I mean, you know, I mean Mcrae's

479
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,600
needs quite a bit of capital is
kind of my understanding.

480
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,000
So, so where they fit in the
mix, but you kind of look at it.

481
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,680
I mean, if anything with where
they were historically, they

482
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,160
should have been natural
acquirer or employer or all of

483
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,640
this, but I'm not convinced
that.

484
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,040
They, I think a bunch of it was
originally all in the same

485
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,640
Oceana portfolio and it's kind
of become fragmented because it

486
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,080
was too disparate.
And now it's potentially we're

487
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:59,800
going to come back together
again, which is the way mining

488
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:00,600
works.
Yeah.

489
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,360
Well, yes, yeah.
But no, Ocean is making a lot of

490
00:26:04,360 --> 00:26:06,080
money at the moment.
They're they're very cash

491
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:10,280
generative, surprisingly, yeah.
Guys, I want to talk about the

492
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,840
the US government and what
they're doing.

493
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,680
I think this is the biggest
topic we are seeing in the

494
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,720
mining industry right now and I
think it will be for the decade.

495
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,920
And there's two particular
stories here that that stand

496
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,800
out.
Firstly, what's going on at

497
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,720
Lithium Americas and Thaka Pass
and secondly, US Antimony Corp.

498
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,760
So just to give a bit of context
for, for listeners, click

499
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,520
quickly on Lithium Americas.
They had a funding package with

500
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,720
the DOA in mind.
Thaka Pass is jointly owned with

501
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:39,240
GM, the automaker.
And essentially this $2.3

502
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,720
billion loan is being in
quotation marks renegotiated by

503
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,960
the, the Trump administration
with the, the inkling that they

504
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,920
want a 10% equity stake, which
is very similar to what we saw

505
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,400
with Intel and has some
similarities with what we saw

506
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,920
with MP materials a little while
ago.

507
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,280
So a lot of shareholders were up
in arms when the news came out

508
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,640
that the, the government's just
going to take 10% of the

509
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,000
company.
Lo and behold, the stock nearly

510
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,600
double s on, on the back of this
and the news hasn't even

511
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,160
solidified yet.
The company came out confirming

512
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,160
that there's talks going on.
This is, this is just

513
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,880
remarkable.
And I think to me, I'm curious

514
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,120
to hear what you guys think.
This just just cements the new

515
00:27:16,120 --> 00:27:20,480
paradigm that we're in the
government in the US and we are

516
00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:23,640
seeing it all around us All
India wants to build stockpiles

517
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,400
of of rare earth.
We know our government here in

518
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,840
Australia is talking about
building a strategic reserve of

519
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:32,560
critical minerals.
These these these governments

520
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:36,520
rather building stockpiles not
even necessarily to to pace into

521
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,320
manufacturing just yet.
Like there's a lot of these

522
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,000
parts that haven't been figured
out yet, but it makes sense

523
00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,240
geopolitically if you're going
to separate yourselves from a

524
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,480
lot of parts of the world and
have trade wars that you want to

525
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,040
get all this up and running.
And I think there's a lot of

526
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,040
other pockets, a lot of other
commodities, a lot of other

527
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,360
companies that are going to be
disrupted by this in time.

528
00:27:56,360 --> 00:27:57,920
And I'm I'm just kind of
fascinated.

529
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,000
How have you kind of seen this
evolution Duncan from 30 odd

530
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,600
years experience in in the
industry?

531
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:04,400
Yeah.
I mean, you know, it's not an

532
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:09,680
area I play in directly of
course, but I can understand it

533
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,080
from a geopolitical each
perspective.

534
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,040
And let's let's hit the nail on
the head.

535
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:17,920
It's all about China, right, who
have inserted themselves as a

536
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:21,520
dominant position through a lot
of this space.

537
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,000
It's rare earths, it's lithium,
it's the downstream use of

538
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,520
lithium.
You know, in rare earths, of

539
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:28,000
course, it's magnets and what
have you.

540
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:33,120
And a lot of those are one
fundamental to our economy and

541
00:28:33,120 --> 00:28:37,400
particularly if you, you know,
the climate change and

542
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,320
electrification of everything
kind of kind of thematic.

543
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,760
And then you've also got a whole
bunch of medals that are, you

544
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,680
know, strategically important
from a military perspective.

545
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:54,680
And the Chinese are not
necessarily making decisions on

546
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,240
normal capital investment
grounds.

547
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:03,160
And when you get into these
minor commodities, you can shift

548
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,160
the price around.
Let's face it, none of them have

549
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:12,320
a transparent pricing mechanism.
It's not natural supply demand

550
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,800
economics.
So, you know, if these are

551
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:21,280
strategically important for the
economy of the country and and

552
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,560
you know, military positioning,
then this is fundamentally why

553
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:30,560
you see government starting to
get involved from an investment

554
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,800
point of view.
You know, it's creating a lot

555
00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,640
of, let's call it hype in all of
those kind of areas.

556
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:43,800
But if you, the challenge I see
with a lot of these mines is 1

557
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,640
new mine comes on the planet
that's slightly better than the

558
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,920
one you've got.
They can eat your lunch.

559
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:56,200
And it's kind of true across a
lot of minor metals.

560
00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,400
They're actually pretty high
risk investments to play in.

561
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,200
If you get it right, of course,
you can make an absolute matzo,

562
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,840
but if you get caught on the
wrong side of it, you've just

563
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:11,720
done everything.
So, you know, it's, it's not a

564
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,680
place that I focus my time
effort or where I invest my

565
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,280
money for, for those kind of
things.

566
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:22,240
And, and you're very much
beholden to shifts in government

567
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,320
policy here.
So, you know, I fully understand

568
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,600
why the government is now
getting into this space.

569
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:36,120
Fundamentally we need to, but
from a personal point of view

570
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:40,240
it's not not what I focus my
time and energies on.

571
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,120
Up until probably this week, I
shared, yeah, pretty much the

572
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:49,080
exact same opinion as you on, on
kind of all of this trend.

573
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,840
I think this week is the first
week I'm, I'm thinking about it

574
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,040
a little bit differently.
And you know, I think I think

575
00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:01,160
like what we're saying is it's
not just resource nationalism

576
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,840
out of the US, it's it's the
institutionalization of of

577
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,400
industrial policy.
In many ways, it's actually a

578
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,360
mirror image of what China did
just two decades ago as well.

579
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:17,400
the US is, is kind of like to
the game for investors, the risk

580
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,520
reward profile, it looks
different.

581
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,280
This is a this is, this is like
a new, this is a new say the

582
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:24,480
word, it's a new paradigm,
right?

583
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,560
So why is the risk reward
profile different now?

584
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,080
Yes, there's hype, yes, there's
niche markets, yes, new supply

585
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,000
can come online that changes
things.

586
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:41,200
But if, if, if the upside is now
underwritten by governments and

587
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:43,440
you know, you've got them,
you've got the price guaranteed,

588
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,160
you've got the, the demand, the
sure thing, thanks to a

589
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,800
government contract like those
factors don't matter as much.

590
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:51,280
In fact, they don't matter at
all.

591
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,640
If new, if new supply comes
online, because why do you worry

592
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,040
if new supply comes online?
Well, it's because you can't

593
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,800
sell your material.
The price you thought, no,

594
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,640
that's actually not a risk
anymore.

595
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,960
So I think I do.
I do think this is, this is a

596
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:06,560
yeah, this is, this is, this is
a genuine new paradigm in

597
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,480
commodity markets.
And like, I have to change the

598
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,400
way I think about about a lot of
this stuff.

599
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,640
I have to challenge my own kind
of like cynicism on, on some of

600
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,880
this stuff whenever I see.
Yeah.

601
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,200
And there's a lot of dumb stuff
happening in the markets on the

602
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,280
back of this theme.
And a lot of it doesn't make any

603
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,160
sense.
But at the core, there's there's

604
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:23,800
something very big happening
here.

605
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,080
Yeah.
But I think the key thing you've

606
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,080
said out of all of that is the
most important piece is the

607
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,400
guaranteed off take.
Guaranteed.

608
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,920
Guaranteed.
After because if you if you

609
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,440
don't have that, then somebody
else can either undercut, you

610
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:42,400
just can't compete, right?
Yeah.

611
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:44,480
So suddenly your asset is worth
nothing.

612
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,000
Your point on on being at the
whims of government policy

613
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:49,880
changing again is absolutely
right too.

614
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,240
You know your off tech is
guaranteed until until you get a

615
00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,160
new government that says you can
rewrite the rules when you're a

616
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,680
new SO.
So if you just go back in the

617
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:02,160
investment cycle back into the
juniors and the developers have

618
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,680
yet to get to to that point
where they've got the guaranteed

619
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,720
off take, you know, your
investment's going to be linked

620
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,560
to whether you get that little
golden card, which is the off

621
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,480
take agreement.
You're really relying on which

622
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,440
project it's anointed supports,
isn't it?

623
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,520
Yeah.
Looking across the rare earth

624
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:25,880
market though, there seems to be
a, a feeling that this 110 NDPR

625
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:30,840
price per per kilo is going to
go across the the industry.

626
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,840
And that's not the case just
yet, that that's just with MP

627
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,560
materials.
But it is fascinating to sort of

628
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,120
gauge what, what investors are
thinking, what companies are

629
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,160
thinking, because there seems to
be a consensus for you that

630
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,080
everyone's going to get that
sooner or later and that that's

631
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,960
not the case.
When you look at like AUS

632
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,320
Antimony Corp, it makes a whole
lot more sense.

633
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,480
I mean, there is only two of
these production plants in North

634
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:53,880
America.
They own them.

635
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,080
And you're in a beautiful
position there if you're the

636
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,400
company, the, the Defense
Department.

637
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:02,760
They're not even going to use
the stuff.

638
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,640
They're just going to pile up
the ingots at this moment in

639
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:07,640
time.
So it's, it's remarkable.

640
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,120
So yeah, $245 million / / 5
years for them.

641
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,960
It's not massively surprising
that the the company's share

642
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,440
prices run 3000% in from a very
low base over the over the past

643
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,520
year.
It's kind of just, I'm, I'm

644
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,600
surprised, but I don't think I
should be.

645
00:34:24,639 --> 00:34:26,560
I guess that's one way I'd kind
of put it with this one.

646
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,440
So I mean, if you're one of
these companies that's got that

647
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,199
locked in government guaranteed,
you know, hopefully it's happy

648
00:34:32,199 --> 00:34:35,080
days.
What happens when the antimony

649
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,360
stockpile gets to the point we
don't need any more becomes

650
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,280
another problem, of course, But
you know, you can look in that

651
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,000
whole antimony market and of
course antimony is, you know, a

652
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:46,080
lot of times is a byproduct to
gold or something else.

653
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,639
There's actually not that many
just pure antimony plays.

654
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,960
And you know, most of the time
you're talking about an antimony

655
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,719
gold con and treated somewhere.
And I mean, you know, there's at

656
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,840
least a dozen, you know, let's
call them gold companies that

657
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,520
are promoting themselves as
antimony producers and getting a

658
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:04,840
flood of money around all of
that.

659
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:11,240
But the the longer term value of
that antimony product to me is

660
00:35:11,240 --> 00:35:15,040
it could be anything.
There's a fascinating case study

661
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:17,720
in in tin because there was
these massive stockpiles all the

662
00:35:17,720 --> 00:35:20,480
way up until the the mid to late
80s.

663
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,400
And then that just put a damper
for 20 plus years on the tin

664
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,960
price as they just got sold down
and sold down and sold down.

665
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,480
But we're in the other end of
the the cycle right now, so.

666
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,960
Yeah, mate, Tin Tin looks good.
Yeah.

667
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,080
And and I mean, I kind of
graduated at that time.

668
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:40,160
As you know, tin was one of the
commodities people were actively

669
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,240
outgoing an exploration and it
just died overnight.

670
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,880
So I mean, I, I kind of put tin
in another bucket.

671
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,320
It's one of these relatively
minor metals where swings in

672
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,720
supply and demand can really be
quite extreme.

673
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,200
And you know, that can be driven
by a whole all the government

674
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,440
policy and where China plays and
all this space.

675
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,920
And it can also be just driven
by, you know, you find a really

676
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,560
high quality deposit and you
know, you undercut everybody on

677
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:12,760
the cost curve, set the market.
OK, great control time, Duncan.

678
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:16,240
JD, this would be fun.
Can you get your thoughts on

679
00:36:16,240 --> 00:36:18,480
grading some of these, some of
these corporate stories of the

680
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,160
week?
First one we've got is HUD Bay's

681
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,160
pausing operations at
Constancia.

682
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,160
So down in Peru had based
constantial copper mines become

683
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,360
the latest kind of flashpoint of
of social unrest.

684
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,120
What started as community
process protests over

685
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,200
unfulfilled social commitments
and environmental concerns, it's

686
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,600
now escalated.
There's Rd. blockades and mill

687
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,840
shut down adding the pressure
from informal artisanal miners

688
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,400
resisting tighter government
regulation under a under a

689
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:49,320
government scheme there and now
things have have have escalated

690
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:52,000
to where hub base had to
demobilize its staff hope

691
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,440
production and it's yes
scrambling to reassure investors

692
00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:00,320
it can still hit its guidance.
What do you, what do you think

693
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:01,920
of this one and what do you
grade it, Duncan?

694
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:08,440
I'm not sure how you want me to
grade it, but let's let's, Yeah.

695
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,480
Look, I mean, in terms of
management action here, you've

696
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,480
got to say they're doing the
right thing, right, in terms of

697
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,160
protecting the health and
well-being of their employees.

698
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,480
So, you know, you kind of give
them ABA or B for that as an

699
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,960
investor, of course, I mean, you
know, that flows through to

700
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:23,840
share price, taking a bath
sooner or later.

701
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:32,880
So that's AD or an F, But you
know once that share price has

702
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,480
corrected, that maybe becomes
the buy opportunity because

703
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,240
these things usually resolve
over time.

704
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,920
Yeah.
Absolutely, it's this week in

705
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:43,920
copper has been fascinating
obviously with what's happening

706
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,760
at Grasberg, which has been
quite tragic and deserves a lot

707
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,520
more attention.
But the copper market has kind

708
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,320
of been rocked on on the supply
side.

709
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,800
How how things get to a level
here specifically with HUD Bay

710
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,920
that you got protests is is
worth investigating as a

711
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:05,080
investor and it's not new there
in in those parts of Peru.

712
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:08,000
They're not the only company
that's been kind of subject to

713
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,160
this 1MG.
With Los Los Los Bumpus is is

714
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,320
kind of yeah, caught up in a
similar.

715
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,280
Situation exactly and the the
government component is is tied

716
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,680
in with that as well with the
artisanals wanting kind of

717
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:23,880
someone someone to blame you've
got a a mining company there so

718
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,640
that makes them an easy kind of
target.

719
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,200
So kind of like you Duncan, I
think I'll go middle of the the

720
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,200
row and call it AC.
You have to put some on.

721
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,000
There's nothing you can really
do about that.

722
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,400
And as an investor, like you
said, perhaps that creates

723
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:39,840
opportunity in a copper market
where the the supply side is

724
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,960
really tightening.
Peru supplies 10% of the world's

725
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,800
copper, Yeah.
And if, if projects like like

726
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:51,520
Constantia can can be yeah, all
those bombers can be kind of

727
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,760
held hostage in some respects.
I think you just underwrite how

728
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,000
how fragile our, our copper
supply is.

729
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,880
And throwing mix, Grasberg,
throwing the mix, a whole host

730
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:06,080
of of these, yeah, supply shocks
that are unanticipated.

731
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,160
We see them all the time.
And we've got a pretty tight

732
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,560
copper market.
I'm going to grab it and see

733
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,760
because I don't speak Spanish
and I can't deduce where fault

734
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:17,040
lies here.
So to see, but the copper market

735
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:19,280
is fragile.
Yeah, totally.

736
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,840
Maybe on the other side we see
Cobra Panama come back online

737
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:25,280
sooner or later.
Next story is the Glencore man

738
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,480
isa slash Aussie government
negotiations.

739
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,200
So this has been happening in
the background for quite some

740
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,120
time, but it seems to be coming
to a head now.

741
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,760
You've got the federal
government in Australia

742
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,400
reportedly pushing the state
government in Queensland to, to

743
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,320
contribute a bit more to the the
rescue.

744
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:44,640
Ultimately, the two kind of came
together and put forward a

745
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:48,080
proposal to to Glencore.
Glencore said anything under

746
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,840
$600 million wouldn't be enough
to give them enough time to

747
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,480
assess the viability of the the
project over the the long term

748
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,760
given it's pretty loss making.
So they then came out and put

749
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:03,800
another number saying they would
lose $2.2 billion / 7 years.

750
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:08,000
Now a DSA being Glencore, that's
just a negotiating bargain that

751
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:12,040
they're, they're driving there.
But there is a lot of jobs and

752
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:13,640
other implications from this
one.

753
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:18,000
So 600 Glencore employees but.
We're talking about 17,000

754
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,200
people indirectly, you know,
Dyno Nobel, you look at the

755
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,240
refinery, the, the smelter, the
families involved or the other

756
00:40:24,240 --> 00:40:27,720
small businesses.
So it's a huge decision to, to

757
00:40:27,720 --> 00:40:31,160
kind of make.
And we, we've spoken about this

758
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,600
previously.
It, this comes on the back of

759
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,600
firstly you've got higher costs
in, in Australia and then

760
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,160
breaking down the high cost
energy is the big one, then,

761
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:45,000
then Labor as well.
So we really need to think very

762
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,880
hard about how we as a country
navigate this.

763
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,840
And I find it very hard to to
see where we've got a a

764
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:58,240
strategic advantage here and why
in a sense we need to kind of do

765
00:40:58,240 --> 00:41:01,800
this given that all the product
is just sent overseas anyway.

766
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,000
So it makes it, it makes it very
challenging to me.

767
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:10,320
And in a cost of living crisis
environment, giving another a

768
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:13,320
$600 million is tough.
So good on the government for

769
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:16,600
trying to extract a lot of
investment out of Glencore on

770
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,160
the back of this one, but maybe
I'll sling over to you guys

771
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,280
before I I contribute a rating
to this one.

772
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:25,600
What do you guys think?
I think, I think the other part

773
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,560
of the profitability creation
there is like, like it's very

774
00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:32,120
hard to run a profitable smelter
when it's you don't have a

775
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,360
consistent reliable source of of
feed for it as well.

776
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:44,320
Yeah, I have unwavering views on
my appetite for government

777
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:49,480
intervention into loss making
parts of any industry.

778
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,000
And those unwavering views are
not changing.

779
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:56,480
I can see it.
I just think it's yeah, not a

780
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:00,120
fan.
And I also like, I don't I don't

781
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,920
see any horizon where where that
smoke becomes profitable unless

782
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:06,160
you find.
Yeah, giant new copper

783
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:07,720
discovery.
You'll get a better operator who

784
00:42:07,720 --> 00:42:11,560
can pull a bunch more copper out
and and also fix energy

785
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,040
problems.
Now it's a very strategic asset.

786
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:14,560
Of course, you talked about Dyna
Noble.

787
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,960
I mean, heck, it's even
important to BHP by virtue of

788
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:22,000
the, of the fact that it it, it
can, it can take some of the

789
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,720
high uranium content from from
Olympic Dam.

790
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:32,760
I, I'm going to write it.
AACI actually think Glencor's

791
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:36,240
trying to sell ISA very actively
as well.

792
00:42:36,240 --> 00:42:38,960
I don't know what we're going to
emerge with on the on the flip

793
00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:43,360
side of it, but but I wouldn't
be surprised if there's a bit of

794
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,760
a song and dance here.
And, and the ultimate deal that

795
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,720
kind of the government agrees to
also involves a new operator of

796
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:56,040
of Pfizer, Duncan.
Yeah, look, I agree with your

797
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,000
sentiments, right?
I'll just don't say this is the

798
00:42:58,000 --> 00:42:59,440
place the government should be
playing.

799
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:03,560
Government's role is to set the
fiscal regime in Australia that

800
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:07,640
is attractive, have policies and
you know, includes things around

801
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,120
labour and energy and all those
kind of things that are critical

802
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,200
for for viable resource
investments.

803
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:18,720
To kind of get into handouts to
prop up things that don't wash

804
00:43:18,720 --> 00:43:21,160
their face is not to me, the
role of the government.

805
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,200
You know, that's putting aside
the strategic metal kind of

806
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:26,600
piece that we were talking about
earlier.

807
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:31,440
So, you know, and the reality is
it's going to be tough on people

808
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,760
who lose jobs or, you know,
their economic investments in

809
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,040
that part of the world.
But, but let's be realistic

810
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,280
about it.
There's not a lack of employment

811
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,440
or other economic opportunities
in Australia.

812
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:46,400
And sometimes labour has to
migrate to to where those

813
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:50,320
opportunities are and kind of
putting a pretty cold hard face

814
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:51,840
on it.
But, but I think that's actually

815
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:53,760
what's going to happen.
Yeah, Yeah.

816
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:55,200
I think that I think that's well
said.

817
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,440
I'd probably call it a sale.
Like you said, they're sort of

818
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:01,720
fraff with the sort of caveat
that nothing's finalized here.

819
00:44:01,720 --> 00:44:03,720
So we'll see what actually comes
out.

820
00:44:04,240 --> 00:44:06,440
Last one on grade control.
Good news story for you mate.

821
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,640
Let's hear it.
Min min Reds, they they refied

822
00:44:10,640 --> 00:44:17,480
the well 700 million US bond.
So you know, pushed back the the

823
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,240
maturity to 2031.
Importantly, the coupon 7%.

824
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:25,480
For reference, last time minres
went to the US bond market, it

825
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:30,560
was October 2023.
They they sought AUS $1.1

826
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,920
billion in in bonds and the
coupon was 9.25%.

827
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:37,280
So I mean, this is just, it's,
it's an obvious grade.

828
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,920
It's an A+ Absolutely shocked
me.

829
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,160
I'm yeah, hats off to them.
They've they've they've reflied

830
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,240
at A at a lower cost of debt
than they had before.

831
00:44:47,240 --> 00:44:49,200
Like that's, it's very
impressive.

832
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,040
Yeah, I think I'd agree.
You've got to give them the tick

833
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:53,640
in the box.
So yeah, when you call it an A

834
00:44:53,720 --> 00:44:55,800
or AB or whatever, but it's
definitely up at that end of the

835
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,320
spectrum and I think the market
loves it.

836
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:01,000
From what I kind of saw, I think
Minrose was up 4 to 5%,

837
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,800
something like that.
As well as the kind of things.

838
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:06,880
I mean, it obviously takes out
any, you know, a lot of the kind

839
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:08,960
of risk of debt overhang and
refive risk.

840
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:12,600
That's the kind of thing that
management boards are also kind

841
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,120
of quite conscious of.
Yeah, fantastic.

842
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,600
Sorry you're.
Going to give it an A, but I'm

843
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,040
just going to add a point.
There's definitely this trend

844
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:26,360
of, of, of, of miners
refinancing their debt at a, at

845
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:29,160
a, you know, a substantially
lower cost of debt than they had

846
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,080
before.
The first, the first one that

847
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:37,920
came to mind was 42% bond in R&B
terms was pretty remarkable.

848
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:39,960
Then then of course, yeah, I've
been raised here.

849
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:44,920
We saw nickel Industries, yeah,
yesterday with a, with a, with a

850
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,760
again, like paying an interest
rate, which is like like 2,

851
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,040
three, 4% lower than what they
were before.

852
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:52,800
I don't like some, some
someone's going to explain to me

853
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,520
it's probably more than just
like rates coming lower.

854
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:59,080
Like what is what is driving the
the cost of deping so much

855
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:01,480
substantially lower?
Is, is it, is it really the risk

856
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:04,960
profile of the companies or is
it, or is there something else

857
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:05,680
at play here?
I don't know.

858
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,360
Yeah, it's a it's a big sort of
story and we're going to see it

859
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:11,600
across the the complex BHB as
well add add to that have

860
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,280
recently they.
Did that 30 year at. 5 They did

861
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:18,000
the the 30 year bonds as well,
like take the money these, these

862
00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,560
fixed these fixed rate things.
When you've got real assets

863
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,720
you're churning out.
We're coming into a rate cutting

864
00:46:22,720 --> 00:46:26,840
environment when like we said
earlier, inflation in the US has

865
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,080
not been within their band since
2021.

866
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,840
You've got inflation and you can
lock in these things at at 5%.

867
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:34,920
It's just remarkable.
Nickel industry is another one,

868
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:39,720
like you said, paying over 2%
less than when they last went

869
00:46:39,720 --> 00:46:41,400
out to the market to to sign up
bonds.

870
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:44,400
It's just, it's just awesome to
see for the miners who's.

871
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,760
Earning these bonds, Like, who's
buying these bonds?

872
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:50,200
You know what happens when
inflation?

873
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:51,080
Yeah.
Anyway, wouldn't.

874
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,200
Want to be on the other side of
these ones, but that's their

875
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:56,960
decision.
All right, guys, sweet and sour

876
00:46:56,960 --> 00:47:00,680
deal and there was quite a bit
happening in this end of the

877
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:02,240
market.
So we're going to talk through

878
00:47:02,240 --> 00:47:04,440
some deals as well as some
capital raises here.

879
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:09,560
First up Datera, so we all know
Datera did the deal with Trident

880
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,520
last year and they picked up a
bunch of assets there and

881
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,080
they've had a bit of a program
to flick out a few of them.

882
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:19,840
So they netted from this sales
60 million U.S. dollars. 56 of

883
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:23,160
that came from these gold off
takes that they sold and then

884
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:27,320
the other 4 was from the St.
Ives and a Dandoko royalties.

885
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:32,640
So this will go to reduce their
net debt to the the final piece

886
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,920
they said of their sell down
program of these non core

887
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:38,400
assets.
And yeah, this one's a sweet

888
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,880
deal, if only for the fact that
it's a great time to be selling

889
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:43,600
anything gold related at this
moment in time.

890
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:47,040
What do you think, Duncan?
Well, if you depends what your

891
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:48,720
sentiment towards gold is, of
course.

892
00:47:48,720 --> 00:47:52,320
So, you know, if you think we're
kind of at the top end of a bull

893
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,320
gold market, well, it's a sweet
deal If it's keeps running well,

894
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,920
get an egg on your face.
I kind of actually put it as a

895
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,640
bit of a rounding error for, you
know, you look at it, it's kind

896
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,920
of 60 million or whatever is.
And what's their market cap, 3

897
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,680
1/2 or bill?
I don't know the detail, but you

898
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:14,280
know, it's a pretty small deal
for for the value of the

899
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,640
company.
You're right, it's a big deal

900
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:18,680
for Vox.
That's.

901
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,080
A big deal for Vox?
Absolutely.

902
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:26,000
Pretty substantial 1 for them.
And yeah, kind of like, yeah, I,

903
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,240
I, I I'll give it a good deal
for Vox.

904
00:48:28,240 --> 00:48:30,760
I think if you're a, if you're a
company like the size of a

905
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:33,760
royalty company, the size of
Fox, like what's what's a no

906
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:38,840
brainer strategy for you right
now out of just buy as much like

907
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:42,240
gold, gold royalty exposure as
possible and Ted will come pay

908
00:48:42,240 --> 00:48:46,920
premium and take you out.
Tether the elephant in the room.

909
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,560
Next one is Linus.
Now this one is fascinating.

910
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,280
I'm very excited to talk about
this one.

911
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:57,000
So they obviously did did did
their capital raising a little

912
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:01,360
while ago and they had an SPBSPP
as you do at the back of these

913
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,960
things.
They were seeking $75 million.

914
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,800
They had $182,000,000 in
applications and they decided to

915
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:11,360
take them all.
So something is going on here at

916
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,520
Linus.
This is a $17 billion company

917
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:16,240
now.
They've got about a billion in

918
00:49:16,240 --> 00:49:19,000
cash.
They are explicit in their

919
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,440
desires to go downstream and
look at magnet manufacturing or

920
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,400
whatever it might be, producing
heavies and all sorts of things.

921
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,520
Their paper is, you know, if
things keep going, they will

922
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,520
actually crack their 2010 highs,
which I didn't think I'd be

923
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,960
saying.
So they are going to be buying

924
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,400
something soon and got a few
sort of guesses.

925
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:41,880
But yeah, I mean, it's kind of
funny one to to write for the

926
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:43,320
shareholders.
It's a sweet deal because you're

927
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,760
buying in at 1325 and the the
thing 17 bucks already.

928
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:50,680
So well done on that front.
But yeah, Linus, a company

929
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:53,360
definitely to watch.
Tell, it's such a tell.

930
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:58,280
Yeah, well, the raise was done
at 1325 stocks, but the stock

931
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:01,920
the day before they, they did
the, the raise was, was 1473 and

932
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:04,560
now it's $17.00 and they're
taking every, every single

933
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,440
dollar of the SPP extra 100
million bucks or whatever it

934
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,760
was.
They're, they're, they're,

935
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:12,880
they're buying, they're buying
something.

936
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:14,560
They're buying something soon.
I think.

937
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:15,800
Well, they want to buy something
soon.

938
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:17,840
Personally, I think they go
harder than their performance

939
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:18,920
materials.
That's my bet.

940
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:24,000
Like, yes, there's a, there's a,
a big stake you got to negotiate

941
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:27,160
with there, but everyone's
talking about building out that,

942
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:31,240
yeah, the, the separation and
then magnet production part of

943
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,800
the supply chain, rare earth.
And there's a bunch of projects

944
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:36,360
coming on the scene, which Linus
talks about.

945
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,960
But why?
Why back a new project in the US

946
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,360
with when that is such like core
expertise?

947
00:50:42,360 --> 00:50:44,800
Just go buy neo performance
materials.

948
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:48,120
It's still less than a billion
dollar market cap and Linus is

949
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,160
much bigger than that.
It's like, you know, from a

950
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:52,760
dilation perspective, a drop in
the ocean.

951
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:57,080
Sweet deal.
Yeah.

952
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:59,320
Look, I mean, in terms of
shareholders, of course, I mean

953
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:04,480
that's, that's doing the right
thing by by the participants in

954
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:08,400
that SPP.
A lot of the time, I mean, you

955
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:10,800
know, the money goes to the
institutional holders at a

956
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,320
discount and your existing share
register kind of gets diluted.

957
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,520
So, you know, I think you've got
to get that as a that's a that's

958
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,080
a tick.
That's that's the right thing.

959
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:22,440
And the sweet deal for for those
investors that that chose to

960
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:26,400
come in pay bidders, as you've
kind of said, is what does

961
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:27,800
management do with all the
money?

962
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:31,960
That's where it's going to be
sweet or sour.

963
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,960
We don't know yet.
I'm excited to say, all right,

964
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:38,160
an IPO Medeka gold.
Now the reason I've included

965
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:42,480
this one is because this was the
biggest IPO in Indonesia for the

966
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:46,280
year and they finished limit up
that this is the sort of rule to

967
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,440
have in exchange there 25% on
the first day of trading.

968
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:54,440
They pulled in US $280 million
in this IPO, selling a 10% stake

969
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,560
in a spectacular gold
environment in a week where the

970
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,000
gold price hit a record high.
This is a very sweet deal for

971
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:07,840
the, the company and it's got me
very excited for the, the ZG and

972
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,040
gold international IPO.
So they want to list that on the

973
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:15,240
Hong Kong exchange raise US $3.2
billion, which would be the

974
00:52:15,240 --> 00:52:19,840
biggest raising in in the world
since May or so.

975
00:52:20,240 --> 00:52:22,480
And I'm I'm very excited that
one got delayed because of the,

976
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,160
the typhoon up there, but let's
see how that one goes.

977
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,680
It's gold is in the air at the
moment they.

978
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:29,840
Got great timing.
I remember when they did the

979
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:33,400
battery medals IPOI think it was
like the peak peak battery

980
00:52:33,400 --> 00:52:35,120
medals thematic.
I just is.

981
00:52:35,200 --> 00:52:37,280
That the sell sign maybe?
Maybe.

982
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:39,040
Great timing.
Yeah, sweetie.

983
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:42,440
Good on you, Duncan.
Look, I mean the Ward broader

984
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:45,840
thing here of course is it's
very positive for other players

985
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:51,000
that have good assets and
opportunities to raise money.

986
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:52,800
I mean, you know, it's a pretty
good chance here to be able to

987
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:54,760
bring it in in the current
market climate.

988
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:57,320
So, yeah.
So anybody who's who's in that

989
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:59,560
that's it's, that's pretty
sweet, isn't?

990
00:52:59,720 --> 00:53:02,360
It totally if we change tack for
a moment, we're going to

991
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,320
Cameroon and talking about Bork
site.

992
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,920
So Kenyan raised over $200
million.

993
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:10,560
Now they were a less than $500
million company before this.

994
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:14,520
And this sees them write those
famous words fully funded.

995
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:18,800
So they have a debt package as
well with this one.

996
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:20,840
Now looking at the breakdown of
the financing is quite

997
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:24,320
interesting because you've got
their strategic EEA, which took

998
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:28,160
about half about $110 million
and Afreeland who took another

999
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:30,200
70.
Now they are a subsidiary of the

1000
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,600
biggest bank in Cameroon.
So great to have that strategic

1001
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,880
interest from the, the country
in which you're operating there,

1002
00:53:37,240 --> 00:53:40,440
$180 million of the race just
done just like that.

1003
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,000
So I think it's a great job
getting all those people aligned

1004
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:47,040
that having that buy in is, is
vital in this day and age and it

1005
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:49,920
puts them on the way to
developing the the books that

1006
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,400
project out there.
So sweet deal.

1007
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:57,600
Sweet deal Afroland, Yeah, I
haven't seen them take equity in

1008
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,680
in anything before, but having
them on board, you know, I think

1009
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:04,680
that that a big, big indicator
of of in country support.

1010
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:07,480
I think they also took a higher
proportion of the rail asset in

1011
00:54:08,240 --> 00:54:10,440
conjunction with this sweet
deal.

1012
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:12,320
Yeah.
And the word I'll just add wants

1013
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:16,800
to diversify from having 25%
coming from Guinea of of both

1014
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:19,760
site reply supplies.
So that's a tailwind for them

1015
00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:21,120
to.
The thing the thing to really

1016
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:23,400
like pay attention to here is
like, look at the difference it

1017
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:27,080
makes to a junior going into
development when you have a

1018
00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:32,880
strategic on your register who
can write massive checks and

1019
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:36,040
we'll like push this thing into
into into development.

1020
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,320
I'm talking about, yeah, Eagle
eye asset management there.

1021
00:54:39,640 --> 00:54:43,800
My God, that that that
completely has has been such a

1022
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:46,280
game changer for these
companies.

1023
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:49,720
Cost of capital as they've like
continued to take off hurdles to

1024
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:52,680
get into development.
I've got one last one, rare X,

1025
00:54:52,720 --> 00:54:56,040
and this is in that, you know,
in the rare earths sort of

1026
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:57,360
field.
We know they did a deal with

1027
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,800
Aluca somewhat recently.
They're still waiting for some

1028
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,840
local approvals which ties in
with this raising.

1029
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:07,200
So a $50 million equity
facility, it's not a raising

1030
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,440
straight up for a $20 million
market cap company, super

1031
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,880
interesting stuff.
It's contingent on the Miramar

1032
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:16,800
Hill project getting that
approval like I said from from

1033
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,560
Kenya there.
These facilities aren't always

1034
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:23,480
viewed of to positively because
they leave that overhang in the

1035
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:25,320
market.
If you can just tap it again and

1036
00:55:25,720 --> 00:55:27,840
and get the equity.
This one's sort of structured

1037
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:30,480
in, in two tranches and it's a
bit sort of different, but it's

1038
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:32,400
a lot of financing to to get
them going.

1039
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:36,040
And I think if they get that
approval in place, this could be

1040
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,640
one that that runs quite hot in
a in a strong tailwind

1041
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:45,880
environment.
I've got, yeah, I think it's a

1042
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:47,800
sweet deal.
I think it's a sweet deal, Yeah.

1043
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,560
Sweet deal for both both
investors and and the company.

1044
00:55:51,840 --> 00:55:53,800
Fantastic guys.
I'm all out of capital raises

1045
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,800
and and IPOs unless there was
any more to add to that pile.

1046
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,880
All I want to know, JD, is is
yeah.

1047
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:01,640
What?
What You've got any hidden gems

1048
00:56:01,640 --> 00:56:02,920
for us this week?
You've always got a good tip.

1049
00:56:03,240 --> 00:56:05,400
I've got a hidden gem.
It's it's a bit of a different

1050
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:08,160
1.
So I was, I was just thinking,

1051
00:56:08,160 --> 00:56:10,080
and we were speaking about this
earlier, but the, the weather

1052
00:56:10,080 --> 00:56:11,760
changing here in Perth has been
spectacular.

1053
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,520
The last week has been awesome.
And I love getting on the bike

1054
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:17,560
and just going around the the
river and it makes you just

1055
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:19,200
think how how damn beautiful
Perth is.

1056
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:22,160
Like cycling around the the
river there, seeing the sun come

1057
00:56:22,160 --> 00:56:23,720
up in the morning is kind of
spectacular.

1058
00:56:23,720 --> 00:56:26,840
So anyone out there just get on
the bike and go for it to go for

1059
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:28,720
a truck because it's it's
stunning out there.

1060
00:56:28,720 --> 00:56:30,600
And this time of year is my
favorite time of year in Perth.

1061
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:32,640
Duncan, anything standing out to
you?

1062
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:35,880
Yeah, I'm going to use this as a
bit of a lighting plug for some

1063
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:40,760
Gold Rd. people and get you to
have a look at some of the posts

1064
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:45,160
by Jeff Sperick on LinkedIn.
And I mean, he's kind of

1065
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,440
outlining some of the creative
stuff we've done around

1066
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:51,240
exploration, kind of data
management, which I'm pretty

1067
00:56:51,240 --> 00:56:53,120
sure is kind of industry
leading.

1068
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,600
And, you know, there's going to
be a lot of Gold Rd. people kind

1069
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:58,920
of walking the street in the
next few days.

1070
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:03,360
And, you know, some of the stuff
we've actually been doing has

1071
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:05,440
been been pretty creative.
What?

1072
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:07,400
What exactly are we talking
about from a data management?

1073
00:57:08,440 --> 00:57:12,120
Look, I mean, what we basically
almost have is a touchless

1074
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:15,480
system from, you know, G OS
collecting the data out in the

1075
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:19,280
Bush right through to, you know,
the environment where you look

1076
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:23,280
at the data in JIS or Leapfrog
or what have you.

1077
00:57:23,960 --> 00:57:27,400
And you take out, let's call it
a lot of the menial work in the

1078
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,600
middle by using a number of
tools like FME and what have

1079
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:31,960
you.
We've also done a lot of work in

1080
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:33,800
the kind of the AI space as
well.

1081
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,840
So, you know, without me
stealing the Thunder of what's

1082
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:39,240
on LinkedIn, I'll let people go
and go and go and hunt some of

1083
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:40,720
that down.
We'll include a link in the show

1084
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:41,920
notes so people can find that
one.

1085
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:43,240
Awesome.
Yeah.

1086
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:46,000
I think that kind of like leads
into to my one, which it's not a

1087
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:48,200
recommendation yet, but I think
it will be very shortly.

1088
00:57:48,200 --> 00:57:51,720
But you're definitely seeing a
few tools pop up for, for

1089
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:56,920
investors, which will be like
incredibly useful to immediately

1090
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,840
visualize drilling results.
Like I think we're very, very

1091
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:04,680
close to a product or products
which interpret like

1092
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:07,200
announcements, digestive put in
a 3D model.

1093
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,760
And I, I think that's going to
be such an, an important part of

1094
00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:12,600
the equation for, for
transparency for, you know,

1095
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,600
investors to actually just
really grasp what's going on

1096
00:58:15,600 --> 00:58:18,800
rather than sometimes being like
misled by, by certain

1097
00:58:18,800 --> 00:58:21,600
professional elements or, or
things that have announcements.

1098
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:24,160
So I'm excited for that.
That's a fantastic one.

1099
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:26,040
Awesome.
Duncan, thanks a lot for for

1100
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,520
coming on sharing your thoughts,
sharing a bit about the the Gold

1101
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,080
Rd. story and yeah, looking
forward to, to seeing what the

1102
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:32,120
future holds for you.
Thank you.

1103
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,080
Yeah, thanks, Johnny.
Thanks, Trev.

1104
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:36,480
And I'm sure you'll see us
around again.

1105
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:39,720
Just don't know where it is yet.
Congrats, Congrats on Congrats

1106
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,840
on concluding a, you know, a, a
pretty significant chapter.

1107
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:46,240
And yeah, I'm sure lots of
shareholders have congratulated

1108
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:49,640
you and good luck with your few.
So knowledgeable and so great to

1109
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:53,240
chat with and it is all made
possible thanks to our fantastic

1110
00:58:53,240 --> 00:58:56,800
partners Mate Sandvik, Round
support, focus the platform by

1111
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:59,760
Market Tech and I Mark get your
tickets for the conference in

1112
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:02,120
late October.
Uduru money minus Uduru.

1113
00:59:03,600 --> 00:59:06,440
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

1114
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:08,880
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

1115
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,560
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out a

1116
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:12,080
disclaimer.