Inflation Is the Only Escape (Chris Judd)

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I am excited.
I'm excited for this one.

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We're talking macro.
We've got Chris Judd on the

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show.
It's been a while since we've

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spoken with Judd.
We are going to jump into the

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wider world of what is happening
out there, how he is thinking

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through capital flows, through
liquidity, interest rates, all

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these sorts of things.
I'm excited to share this

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conversation, Trev.
Judd, he's had a flying start

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managing Saturday Macro Fund and
great returns.

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Great, great thinker about the
world.

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He takes in a lot of
information, synthesizes it and

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then yeah, has really
interesting equity selections as

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a result of that.
A lot of those equity selections

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happen to be quite interesting
mining adjacent businesses.

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So if you one of those people
that is pretty curious about

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some of the mining services
businesses out there, Johnny's

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got some some pretty interesting
views on that.

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It does.
Before we jump in, we need to

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talk a bit about commercial
property now.

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There's been a lot of ruckus in
the budget lately, Australians

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would note, but commercial
property, commercial property

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has been carved out of this.
So Exceed capital.

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They're doing an awesome job.
They manage over half a billion

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dollars now.
They've got a bunch of

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properties that have this
flagship fund called the

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Collective.
It's a group of commercial

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properties out there.
They pay a cash return of 7 to

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8%.
That doesn't even include the

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capital uplift that you see from
holding the asset over time as

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well.
That flagship collective fund 5

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commercial properties in there
all along the East Coast and one

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to come WA very shortly.
WA our home.

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Go exceed capital.
Check him out there's more info

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in the show notes.
Or just give him a call.

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Get in touch.
What do?

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You reckon me we have W
Australia to see.

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More on that to come.
Here we go to Chris.

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Chad.
Any other conferences big big on

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your list?
The EUR 1's really good at

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Grotto, Yeah.
So we really like that.

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We'll go to that every year.
And Morgan's one in Noosa, Yeah,

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it's not the Morgan's Mining 1
coming up.

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There's Morgan small cap mining,
which is the same time as

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Diggers, Yeah.
And then the actual Morgan's one

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is in October.
They're probably the two for.

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US and that they could because
of the concentration of buy side

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guys versus everything else.
Just a good mix of companies,

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good fund managers there.
Yeah.

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I mean, good juristic, like
Rotto's great.

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And Noose is great as well.
Totally.

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Yeah.
There's something about Rotto

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where everyone's captive.
Yeah, just works.

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Yeah.
So even in Noosa good

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conference, but you'll leave do
your own thing at night if you

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just over small talk, whereas
rotto you don't really have that

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option like yeah, you're
captive.

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Two pubs.
Yeah, it sort of forces you to,

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to just hang more than you
would, which is good because I,

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I get small talked out usually
and I'd eventually just tap the

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mat.
But at Rotto, yeah, you sort of

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hang around a bit longer.
Well, yeah, I mean, you, you've

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got a, a global mandate with the
fund as well.

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So do you, how often do you get
overseas?

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Where do you where do you go to?
I, there's a sort of a macro E

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type conference in Singapore I
might go to, but that's it.

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That's it.
There's, there's some other ones

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that look cool, but you haven't
dug in that deep yet.

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And we're, we've got that for
flexibility.

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We've never had more than 10% of
our farm overseas.

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Gotcha.
So it's usually pretty minimal.

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But if the world got crazy and
we just thought it's the biggest

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opportunity ever happening in US
or Japan or whatever, we could

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scale it up.
But it's, yeah, it's, it's

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pretty Aussie focus, yeah.
Well, you say if the world got

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crazy, the world is a a pretty
crazy place.

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If the world got crazy and it it
felt like there was, there was

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an opportunity elsewhere, we
could we could exploit it.

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Yeah, yeah.
So what are you?

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What are you making of
everything happening worldwide?

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What are we making?
Interesting as it always is,

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yeah.
I mean, Iran is dominating

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talking points currently.
It's clearly not resolved yet.

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And it only really just made no
sense to me what was happening

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there.
And the only time it started to

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make sense to me was when, you
know, through listening to other

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people speak and reading, coming
to the conclusion that closing

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the Strait of Hormuz was the
desire from the US, not the

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negative effect of the invasion
of the war in Iran.

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And why would that be?
Because it gives them

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significant control again.
So if you, you know, if the

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numbers get bandied around that
China can produce, you know, for

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everyone ship the US can
produce, China can produce 350.

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If there's sort of that
differential in ship making

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capacity between China and the
US, you know, the dominance that

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the US has had in the Navy
forever is maybe not as sure

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going forward as it has been for
the last X number of years.

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And when you look at the
leverage, China has other things

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like critical minerals, which
you guys be really well versed

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in, or you know, the processing
of those minerals, the various

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Belt and Rd. initiatives,
manufacturing capacity, a lot of

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things in the physical world
where they've really focused on

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and spent huge amounts of money
on, whilst the US have really

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focused their spending on tech
innovation and financial

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innovation.
You know it, I think it's become

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obvious that that's created a
vulnerability for the US when

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you look at the Ukraine war,
which we felt in many ways was a

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proxy war between the US and
China.

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And the US wasn't able to win
that war because they couldn't

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match the manufacturing capacity
of Russia and China.

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So what we think by closing the
Straits of Hormuz and not only

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that, regaining control of the
Panama Canal, which was a really

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big focus of Trump when he came
in early on in his second term,

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I remember listening to that
thinking he's making a big deal

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out of this.
If you control those naval choke

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points, then that really does
give you that dominance through

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the Navy, even if other
countries can build ships much

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more efficiently than you.
And if China can produce, you

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know, minerals in Africa and
then they need to ship them to

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China to process them, if they
don't control, you know,

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important naval choke points
around that world, perhaps that

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leverage isn't quite as great as
we believed.

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If if the US didn't still have
that naval dominance.

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So that sort of makes some sense
to us.

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You know, you couple that, I'm
gonna waffle here.

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Do you want me to keep waffling?
Keep keep going?

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I mean, you, you couple that
too, Cos it's just so

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inflationary.
Yeah.

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And and then you think, what a
nightmare.

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Who would want that?
When you look at the US is the

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biggest energy producer, they're
certainly hurt a lot less by

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higher oil prices than countries
that don't produce their own

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oil.
But then if you also extrapolate

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what's coming down the Pike in
terms of the deflationary

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impacts of AI, you know, let's
say that productivity or

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deflation is is coming in three,
4-5 years time.

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It's starting to come through
now with government debt north

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of 120% as a percentage of GDP.
Deflation is terrifying in an

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instance.
You know, your options when your

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debt to GDP is that high, to
reduce your debt in real terms

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are to to grow your way out of
it or to stop spending, which

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that's not really going to
happen in the US because so much

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of the spending comes from the
government.

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So if you try and cut the
deficit, you're going to cut

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GDP.
So that's not an option.

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You can restructure the debt.
The US isn't going to do that.

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You can default on your debt.
the US is also not going to do

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that.
So then the last option is to

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inflate the way your debt.
It's the only option.

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It's the only option.
So we've always known that.

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And then if you see this, this
potentially huge deflationary

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force coming down the Pike,
maybe this is your last chance

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to inflate the way the debt and
get it to a more manageable

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level.
Sort of 80% of debt to GDP where

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you can normalise interest rates
without crushing your deficit,

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are making an even more
significant year over year.

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Maybe this is their last chance
to inflate away the debt before

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the deflationary impacts of AI
come on.

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Do you and do you, do you
believe that that is an ambition

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that you believe there's a
desire for genuine fiscal

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responsibility ultimately
because it it it almost like

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feels just observing that that
there's no regard for fiscal

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responsibility.
In fact, everyone's kind of

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snatch and grab while while the
opportunity's there to the

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detriment of the long term.
Well, I think fiscal

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responsibility, it depends what
you mean by that, but I assume

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that means like reducing the
deficit spending.

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I I think with debt to GDP this
high, that would almost be

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irresponsible because it would
crush that GDP component because

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so much of the economy and the
flown effects is reliant on that

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fiscal spending.
So if they want to let it RIP,

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now doesn't seem to be the time
for sound money, like

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something's got to pay the price
here.

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It's either the currency, the
inflation or equity markets.

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And depending on which ones you
choose in that greatly impact

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what happens to the deficit.
You know, if you, if you sell

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equity markets are going to cop
the whack, what happens to your,

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your capital gains tax revenue
and your stock based

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compensation revenue and your
consumer spending.

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You know, bondholders take the
whack with that.

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That seemed pretty attractive
given a, a large chunk of them

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overseas sovereign nations, some
of which if you're in a great

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power competition with.
So I just think you've got to

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pick who cops the whack.
Or you can say, well, they do

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nothing and it goes to 150% of
debt to GDP.

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It goes to 190%, but the
deficits are going to get

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astronomical.
Then I think you will eventually

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lose the ability of people won't
want to buy those bonds and you

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get, you know, runaway yields.
So yeah, I mean, that's the

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difference with Japan.
They've got a larger debt to GDP

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burden than that, but they've
got a huge net international

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investment position of of assets
that they can sell.

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So that's a very waffly first
answer.

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I assume we've started
recording, have we?

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No, I I think it's, it's an
awesome.

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So I think, sorry, let me
interrupt.

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I think a lot of people think
the reaction function to the

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inflation that's coming is going
to be, well, you're going to

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have to raise rates to get ahead
of this thing in the US And we

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don't think maybe even get
positive yields compared to

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inflation.
We don't think that's coming.

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And that that's, I think that's
the decision investors have to

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have to make, you know,
different story potentially in

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Australia well.
One of the things we we all know

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about financial markets is
things happen slowly than they

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happen all at once.
And to be more specific, your

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point of the US not been able to
roll it's debt.

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How do you think about that?
Well, I think they'll be able

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to.
It's just at the price they want

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to.
Yeah, 'cause if not, they'll put

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on their balance sheet.
Yeah.

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So those bonds get bought.
How many go on the central bank

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balance sheet?
I don't know.

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I mean, interesting.
Walsh wants to reduce the size

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of the balance sheet.
That's what he says.

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Yeah.
So I think he said for every

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$500 billion reduction in the
balance sheet, that's the

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equivalent to A50 basis point
hike.

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So you could see a world where
he's saying we've reduced the

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balance sheet by a trillion.
So net, net, we should drop

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rates by a percent and they
neutralize each other.

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That's what he's saying, whether
or not people agree with that.

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And then you go, who's going to
buy those bonds?

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I think they've got 9 trillion
bucks of bonds.

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They've got to refinance the
next year and 12 trillion in the

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next two years.
I actually don't know.

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I have to tell me how many zeros
is even in the trillion.

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Like that's a big number.
So who's going to buy this bond?

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00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:54,080
So like, I would assume they
will be mandated with sort of

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00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,640
policy changes or they'll call
it deregulation of the banking

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00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:04,040
industry, changes to the, what
is it the SLR so that banks can

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00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:07,840
buy those bonds more easily.
But I, I, I think it's a time,

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you know, invest.
If investors can't get creative

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on potential what ifs now, like
when are they ever going to be

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00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,160
able to?
You know, we had an era coming

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out of an era where you had $18
trillion worth of negative

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yielding interest rates.
We're coming out of an era where

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at one stage you had oil that
was -37 bucks a barrel for a

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00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,680
small period of time.
We also near where we were, you

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know, locked inside our homes
for three years and kids weren't

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allowed to go to school.
So if you can't be creative

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00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:42,360
about potential outcomes now, I
don't think you'll ever be.

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00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:45,800
And so there's lots of different
potential outcomes.

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00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,040
And they're not our base case,
but we sort of think, we sort of

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00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:54,560
think a bit about them.
You know, if you revalued the

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gold on the US government's
balance sheet at today's prices,

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00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,000
I think it's carried about 42
bucks an ounce.

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00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,360
Every $4000 gold goes up.
That's a trillion dollars added

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00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:10,320
to the US balance sheet.
And I thought if they revalued

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gold, then they've got an asset
that they could borrow against.

250
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,320
But my understanding is that
not, that's not how it happens.

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00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,480
If they revalued, that money
gets just gets dropped in the

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00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,120
TGA.
So if they revalued it to

253
00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,920
today's prices, what's that's
about a trillion bucks that gets

254
00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,320
dropped in the TGA, the the US
government's checking account

255
00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:33,240
effectively, if you had a Dow
ratio of 1 to one of which it's

256
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,920
been twice in history, a lot
more than that.

257
00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,680
What's the Dow like with 30
something 50?

258
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,840
50,000 according to Pan Bondy.
Yeah.

259
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,800
So you've got, you know, 10
trillion, you know, you got 12

260
00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,360
trillion bucks that gets.
There's creative things that are

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00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,440
possible out there, you know,
whether it's stable coins being

262
00:13:54,440 --> 00:14:00,120
used in society for for just
everyday payments, you know

263
00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,600
there, there's a lot of
different weird options out

264
00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:08,360
there and now's the sort of time
when all of those weird things

265
00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:08,960
happen.
So I.

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00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:13,840
Mean you, you look at Besson and
the, the commentary he's had pre

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00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:15,880
and post getting in the hot
seat.

268
00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,080
And it was very critical of, of
Yellen and, and the people

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00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,760
before about, you know, only
doing it the short end, not

270
00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,080
rolling at the long end when
rates were next to 0.

271
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,480
And now he's in the seat, and
maybe it's a bit harder than it

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00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:29,960
seems from from the outside.
Yeah.

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00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,320
And he did the biggest buy back
ever of of longer term bonds or

274
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:38,360
or 10 year bonds not long ago.
So they're financing more and

275
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,200
more at the short end.
Yeah.

276
00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,600
And I mean, his argument would
be, I guess the interest rates

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00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,320
aren't at 0, which, which
obviously they were for a period

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00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,360
of time with Yellen.
But again, I don't know that

279
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,360
governments are meant to act
like a hedge fund where you get

280
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,760
your zero rates and you try and
jam as many into 30 year bonds

281
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,920
as you can, like a longer term.
I'm not sure if that's an

282
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,720
appealing way for investors to
fund government deficits if they

283
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,520
think their counterparty is a
hedge fund looking to get the

284
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:15,560
better in the deal.
But yeah, I mean, both those

285
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,600
both best and young, they're
super smart.

286
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,120
It's it's easy to criticise.
I mean, what a challenging gig

287
00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:29,320
they're both walked into.
But yeah, it's, yeah, all, all

288
00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:30,400
those things are easy, said the
None.

289
00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:32,160
And Wash will probably
experience the same thing.

290
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,440
It it'll be nice.
I'm sure he'd like to reduce the

291
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:36,720
central bank balance sheet
significantly.

292
00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,120
Whether or not it happens, it's
hard to imagine how it could.

293
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:43,960
For sure.
As a, as a, a macro oriented

294
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,800
fund manager, it's, it's your
job to, I suppose, interpret

295
00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,520
these like macro dynamics and
synthesize them into great

296
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:53,920
equity ideas.
Has anything changed from from,

297
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,400
you know, the themes that you've
like built, you know, built,

298
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,680
built a framework around just in
the in the last, you know, year

299
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,160
to date with with the dynamics
of rhyme would has any of that

300
00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,440
changed the, the macro
heuristics that you you

301
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:06,240
interpret?
Depends on your time frame.

302
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:07,960
Yeah.
So we're generally coming into

303
00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,280
investment thinking what's
happening in the next two to

304
00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:13,840
three years for this investment
and nothing's really changed

305
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,440
there.
If anything, we feel the

306
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,600
environment has strengthened for
a lot of those opportunities

307
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:22,680
near term.
The energy crisis is really

308
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:27,120
significant, but we're not
investing for next month or the

309
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,320
next three months.
If we were, that might change

310
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,160
how we were looking at things.
So I think being clear on your

311
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,960
time frame is important.
The other thing that's changed

312
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,440
locally is we're in a rate
hiking cycle now.

313
00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,640
We feel, or certainly I feel
that Australian small caps are

314
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:49,600
reliant on decreasing interest
rates or at least flat interest

315
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,720
rates to capture the retail
investor.

316
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,120
You know, larger cap stocks get
flows from superannuation, which

317
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,120
just rolls in month after month
after month.

318
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,520
There's a buyer there, but the
incremental buyer is small and

319
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,960
micro cap stocks is retail
investors.

320
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,400
And when rates are going up and
they perceive the value of the

321
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,040
house is going down, they're
just less likely to to buy small

322
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,119
cap Aussie stocks.
So you just see liquidity RIP

323
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:17,079
right out of that market.
So that's changed, you know, and

324
00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:19,160
in a large part of that I think
we're going to get some rate

325
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:23,079
rises anyway.
But that's, there's more obvious

326
00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:28,520
now that you've had iron oil
shock, which central bankers are

327
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,320
sort of meant to look through
because it's it's or your shock

328
00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,680
is temporary.
But the second and 3rd order

329
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,280
effects of that, once those
costs creep into building

330
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:39,760
products or labour or things
like that.

331
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:41,440
And we're already seeing
building products go up.

332
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:45,200
And so their job is to to try
and squash that.

333
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,120
So yeah, that's something that's
changed.

334
00:17:48,120 --> 00:17:50,360
And then that's, that doesn't
feel just a one to three month

335
00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:53,120
thing that that feels, you know,
slightly longer in nature.

336
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,920
We we hear the word stagflation
get thrown around a lot lately.

337
00:17:57,120 --> 00:18:00,200
Felt the same 3-4 years ago it
started to and then it kind of

338
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,160
disappeared.
But are you a, are you a

339
00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:03,720
believer?
You think that's inevitable?

340
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,360
How do you think about it?
Yeah, I think we're going to get

341
00:18:05,360 --> 00:18:09,400
stagflation in Australia.
I I think the US is going to be

342
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:13,480
in a high growth inflationary
environment would be my best

343
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:17,440
guess.
Yeah, I think businesses linked

344
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:19,840
to the consumer in Australia are
going to do it very hard.

345
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,280
Yeah, property, yeah, a lot, a
lot of these companies, you

346
00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,360
know, businesses that have high
amounts of debt.

347
00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,200
But the USI know the headlines
look terrible, but you dig into

348
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:37,760
the data, it's pretty strong.
You know, I think EPS are

349
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:42,520
forecast to grow by 16% in SP
500 companies.

350
00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,680
The data centre CapEx is off the
charts.

351
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,120
And you can argue if that's
malinvestment, if it's a good

352
00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:53,360
idea or not, that's fine.
But it's happening.

353
00:18:55,240 --> 00:19:02,480
They produce a bucket load of
oil and and yeah, I mean, I

354
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,520
think real world assets are
going to lead in in this next

355
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:10,480
period, you know, call it the
next 10 year period, but I I

356
00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:12,520
don't think tech's going to get
slaughtered.

357
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,120
And I think, you know, a lot of
the way we're we're viewing the

358
00:19:16,120 --> 00:19:19,520
world is true sort of a national
security lens.

359
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,760
And you know the worst case
scenario, we're already in World

360
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,320
War three.
It's just not the same as

361
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,800
grandpa's war.
Best case scenario.

362
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,240
US and China are in a great
power competition with one each

363
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,840
one another in that in either of
those environments.

364
00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:38,160
And I, and I think, I think
people would think in both the

365
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,120
US and China that if, if they
don't win the AI race, that's an

366
00:19:42,120 --> 00:19:44,760
existential crisis potentially
for their, their country.

367
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:49,800
So in that world, are you going
to starve your tech giants of

368
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,080
capital?
Are you going to make it hard

369
00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:55,080
for them to to get debt and
spend on the CapEx they need it?

370
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,760
It almost feels like that data
centre CapEx, that AI race is

371
00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:04,280
sort of of national security
importance for the US and

372
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,720
they're already dealing with.
A country that chooses half as

373
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,840
much electricity as China, you
know, So they're in a way

374
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,400
fighting with one hand behind
their back as well.

375
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,280
Are they gonna make life harder
by making access to capital

376
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:20,240
tight?
I, I, I struggle to see that.

377
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,080
So that's sort of dynamic I see
in America and then a different

378
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,600
dynamic here in Australia.
You, you said so many things

379
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,360
there that I'm keen to jump into
the first one just on the

380
00:20:29,360 --> 00:20:34,560
American market and, and the big
IPOs that we could be seeing

381
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,280
quite soon.
SpaceX, open AI, Anthropic,

382
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,400
these sorts of companies.
The, it seems as if the goal

383
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,080
posts are shifting with regard
to passive flows to allow

384
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,320
passive companies to come and
buy.

385
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,360
And I'm curious whether you've
fallen down this rabbit hole of

386
00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:51,280
reading, you know, you no longer
have to have 5 profitable

387
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,360
quarters back-to-back to be able
to join the, the index

388
00:20:54,360 --> 00:20:57,320
straightaway because passive is
such a massive part of the

389
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,000
market now.
Is this something being digging

390
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,480
away at the back of your mind
like it has with me?

391
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:05,440
No, like we, we read about all
that stuff and I know you guys

392
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,720
read some of the same stuff that
I read like Les Schwaben and

393
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,640
Paulo Macro.
We, you know, we love reading

394
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,240
their stuff and they're great.
And I know either one or both

395
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,120
thinks SpaceX will mark a bit of
a top in markets.

396
00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:19,560
It'll suck so much liquidity
out.

397
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:25,720
And so you, I would never really
back against those guys, but we

398
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,040
just don't really invest for
flies.

399
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,360
I think you've got to work out
what your skill set is.

400
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:36,840
I was saying to Trev before on
air, there's some funds, you

401
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,520
know, invest heavily on which
companies might be going into

402
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:43,040
the ASX 300 or the ASX 200, or
they're really adept and skilled

403
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,240
at working out who's on the
register and who might need to

404
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,240
buy more or who's lost a mandate
and he's potentially be forced

405
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,000
to sell.
Or it's just not how we invest.

406
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,120
It's not as we're just not good
at investing that way and we

407
00:21:54,120 --> 00:21:55,280
don't really find it
interesting.

408
00:21:55,280 --> 00:22:02,960
So I can acknowledge all those
things and I, I'm, I really like

409
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,400
the Mike Green stuff from
passive investing and the, the

410
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,400
dangers that's coming.
But it, I don't know, it always

411
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,000
sounds clever and just doesn't
seem to make that much money.

412
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,240
And we definitely don't sit
around trying to be clever.

413
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:16,920
We just want to make money for
our unit holders.

414
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,280
I'm often amused to sort of
families arguing with random

415
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,720
people on Twitter, like
obsessively trying to look

416
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,040
clever and and the Mike Green
stuff.

417
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,760
It sort of makes sense.
And when it when it does, if it

418
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,840
does turn, yeah, potentially
there's a wall of money that's

419
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:34,160
going to be forced selling.
And I get it.

420
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:39,040
But if you're going to wait 10
years before it happens, we

421
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,120
don't have a business, you know,
And even as a private investor,

422
00:22:42,120 --> 00:22:46,880
I don't want to wait 10 years.
I I'd be potentially happier for

423
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:48,560
a big payoff as a private
investor.

424
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,640
But even as a private investor,
there's there's just an

425
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,800
opportunity cost of of trying to
hold onto an idea that that's

426
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:56,480
problematic.
Just quickly, Trav, we talk a

427
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,480
lot about geopolitics here,
China versus the West.

428
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,640
Now this is ever present in
commodity markets.

429
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,480
It's not changing anytime soon.
We see it in rare earths, we see

430
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,440
it in lithium, We see it in all
sorts of products.

431
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,240
These markets are transparent,
but you as a mining company you

432
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,720
need to get a better price for
your product.

433
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:15,160
You need a better price for your
product.

434
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:16,960
You need price discovery as
well.

435
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,520
If you think if you're a rare
earth miner, right, like where

436
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,560
is where is the X China rare
earth price that he's actually,

437
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:25,160
you know, got real price
discovery.

438
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,880
That's an incredible challenge
and especially it's a big

439
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,040
challenge when you're trying to
finance new X China supply to

440
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,160
come onto the market.
Now, thankfully, we happen to

441
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,640
know where ex China price
discovery is forming.

442
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,760
Metals Hub, Metals Hub, Check
out the platform Metals Hub.

443
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,000
They are running auctions
effectively.

444
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,480
You as a seller of your product,
a mining company, Chuck up your

445
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,160
specific product up there and
you see what the market has.

446
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:51,920
This is reflected in their
numbers.

447
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,960
They show 2.3% cost benefit
throughout all their clients.

448
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:57,800
They've done this thousands of
times over.

449
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000
So you can get on the platform,
you can get your project

450
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,920
financed because you can sell it
to a competitive market.

451
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,360
Liquidity is building everyday
money miners.

452
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,920
Check out metalsub.com/money of
mine.

453
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:10,840
There's a webinar with line
down, you can see how it all.

454
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:12,080
Works Go Metals Hub.
Yeah.

455
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,640
If I do think of the ways that
you express your your views, it

456
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,000
is a portfolio with some super
interesting stocks in there and

457
00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:24,280
a lot of them have an adjacency
to the commodity space that, you

458
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:29,040
know we love and talk about.
I kind of want to peel into many

459
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,560
of them with you and I'll kick
off with Viceon.

460
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,760
I know you've talked about this
with with JD in the past and we

461
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,000
got a Ding Ding, Ding.
We own this stuff.

462
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,720
We love it.
We we went to the AGM and I was

463
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,400
like, oh, anyway, he's.
Well attended AGM I've I've ever

464
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:44,200
seen.
He's a weapon, James.

465
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:48,400
Yeah, he's like, yeah.
Yeah, super backable.

466
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,480
And yeah, I like Jenny.
I've never seen an AGM.

467
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,480
I had more people at that AGM
than Minrez's the year before,

468
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,320
which was a blockbuster agent.
It was remark.

469
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:59,720
It was tremendously attended,
yeah, for a, for a, for, you

470
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,920
know, $400 million market cap
company.

471
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,760
But but yeah, there's, there's,
there's, there's something

472
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,080
pretty, pretty exciting about,
you know, this this high growth

473
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,400
real assets water business that
the themes are tremendous.

474
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:12,040
That.
Yeah.

475
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:16,720
I, I, I'm just curious like as,
as the stocks like performed and

476
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,960
I know you've owned it for quite
some time and it's been like the

477
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,280
big, you know, biggest, biggest
stock in your portfolio quite

478
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,440
some time.
Has has your appetite to

479
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,800
continue holding it decreased or
changed?

480
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,200
No, we still really like it.
We haven't sold it.

481
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:36,480
You know, we started buying it
at 17 cents and we almost like

482
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,480
it more today.
You know, it's it's better owned

483
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,240
today.
So it's got more institutions on

484
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:45,200
the register, but we can just
get to the current valuation

485
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,480
with the different operating
business units.

486
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,640
Not easily, like it doesn't look
cheap, but we think it's a

487
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,040
higher quality business than a a
traditional mining service

488
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,080
business.
And you know those consulting

489
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:57,240
businesses trade on a much
higher multiple than a normal

490
00:25:57,240 --> 00:25:59,400
mining services business.
There's ability to cross share,

491
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,960
cross sell with their different
divisions.

492
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,520
But that optionality advice on
asset management just feels like

493
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,560
a call option on a business
decision, which there's a lot of

494
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,720
work to do on it and you've got
to use your imagination a little

495
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,400
bit, But you could see that
potentially being worth its

496
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,200
current market cap in, you know,
four or five years time

497
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,280
potentially.
So if it doesn't work out, we're

498
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,160
comfortable enough with the
valuation of just a diversified

499
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,280
water service business advice on
asset management where they've

500
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,280
they've pegged for those that
don't know, pegged a whole pass

501
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,040
of land with with water in it.
And they're potentially looking

502
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,720
to to sign off take partners
throughout the pill bar for that

503
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:40,880
water.
You know, if, if that ends up

504
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:44,160
being a water Corp who are in
the market for for water in that

505
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,520
area and you've got a
essentially a government entity

506
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,920
as the off take part, you know,
the ability to get debt to fund

507
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,240
that would be, would be
astronomical.

508
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:53,800
So it's.
An infrastructure business.

509
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,360
Yeah, that's right.
So, you know, we really like

510
00:26:57,360 --> 00:26:59,280
management.
We know James well, we speak to

511
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,520
him regularly.
You know, the chair Hatchi, I

512
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:07,280
remember from his was at Forge,
you know, as a private investor.

513
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,840
I remember meeting him and sat
next to him at lunch and and

514
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,280
he's super backable as well.
So it's got most of those

515
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:18,680
things, you know, inside our
ownership skin in the game, you

516
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,800
know, management teams that
under promise and over deliver.

517
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,800
It's got all the sort of things
we look for and.

518
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,040
And overlay the tremendous
tailwinds of the the the theme

519
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:29,440
of like, you know, water.
Scarcity.

520
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:33,280
In the, in the, in the Pilbara,
these, these big industrial

521
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,080
ambitions out towards headland
combined with, yeah, the, the

522
00:27:37,120 --> 00:27:39,720
miners deep like, you know,
mining into the water table.

523
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,120
So such such a a glaringly
simple opportunity.

524
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,680
And those Arnold deposits,
they're under the water table

525
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,000
now.
They're going to be for 100

526
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:47,960
years.
You know that's not going to

527
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:52,000
change Like it's a long term
opportunity there for with not a

528
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:56,720
heap of competition.
Look at the numbers, you set

529
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,880
them up on the spreadsheet for
what this infrastructure part

530
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,280
you know by some asset
management could look like and

531
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,720
what's it going to be marked on
all this so you can get very

532
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,760
excited looking at.
That that's right, the multiple

533
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:08,280
people would ascribe to that.
Yeah, particularly if you end up

534
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,960
giving a government as as the
off take partner and you know,

535
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,880
that's a lot of water under the
bridge to see if that will

536
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:17,840
happen.
But yeah, you can get excited

537
00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:21,520
for sure.
And, and it's just got the

538
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:26,960
potential to be a fundy favorite
type stock where it gets valued

539
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,520
highly and you get the benefit
of the doubt once you're a stock

540
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,760
like that, you know, the stocks
that were like that previously,

541
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,200
you know, life 360 or prometicus
or zero, you know, great

542
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,080
management teams, great
businesses.

543
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,880
And if they have a bad quarter,
it gets overlooked.

544
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,680
Whereas you see a stock that
doesn't have that fundy favorite

545
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,680
status, bad quarter and they
just get crucified.

546
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,840
They're in the sin bin for for
three months.

547
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,800
So you feel like Vice signing,
if we are moving into a, a world

548
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:55,800
where hard assets and more
attractive and people a bit

549
00:28:55,800 --> 00:29:00,880
nervous about AI's ability to
disrupt, you know, the previous

550
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,600
cycles funny favourites, you
feel like Vice has a chance to

551
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,120
to be one of the stocks that are
included in that sort of funny

552
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,800
favorite type type feeling.
And given, yeah, the the

553
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,320
popularity AGM you mentioned,
there's some evidence to say

554
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,040
that's a possibility.
That the volatility after

555
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,920
earnings reporting lately has
been been pretty, pretty

556
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,680
staggering feel it feels like
it's growing on.

557
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:26,280
On a separate note, you
mentioned before China's power

558
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,920
power surge or however you might
frame it, and I think that's a a

559
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:33,280
good way to segue into talking
about energy power around the

560
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,680
world.
Santos was a company you'd you'd

561
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,040
written about recently.
So maybe starting at the the

562
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,200
macro HESI power and derivatives
of that around the world and

563
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,760
then moving into a chat about
Santos would be critical.

564
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:46,240
Yeah.
So it's electricity we just

565
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:51,880
think is I guess the most
interesting part of AI for us in

566
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,040
an investment lens.
And when we say electricity, the

567
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,120
electrical grid and the
underinvestment that's occurred

568
00:29:57,120 --> 00:30:00,480
there in the US, but in in most
parts of the Western world.

569
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,480
And again, I sort of, I'm a bit
repetitive in keeping

570
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,600
continually talking about
national security.

571
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:12,160
But you, you've seen the US, you
know, recently announced that

572
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,200
that's now a Department of
Defence issue, the electrical

573
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,240
grid again, because if they
can't produce enough

574
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:20,680
electricity, you can't power
enough data centres and you, you

575
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:25,160
can't win the AI race.
And so that's that's hugely

576
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,560
important economically to the US
and other countries around the

577
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,960
world, but it's also a national
security issue and one we think

578
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,960
that the US will rectify, but
they'll have to throw a lot of

579
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:41,480
money at it to do so.
And then Santos for us was was

580
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:47,920
sort of a case of just wanting
to, I guess, hedge an outcome

581
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:54,000
that we wasn't a base case, but
a possibility where there's

582
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,440
enormous oil disruption, which
we're already starting to see

583
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,400
really with the the conflict in
Iran.

584
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,640
And I guess essentially have a
short term position that we

585
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:05,440
could have there as a hedge to
essentially sell once things

586
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,080
settle down to deploy more into
to stocks that were going to be

587
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,960
banged up.
If that that $200 a barrel oil

588
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,160
outcome happens.
And we're not out of the woods

589
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,680
there yet.
You know, Santos is starting to

590
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:24,000
look reasonably undemanding in
terms of multiple they've.

591
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,120
Been making a lot of money.
Right, Yeah, free cash flow

592
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,920
yields gonna be really juicy.
And you know, they've had a

593
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,920
couple of takeover offers which
haven't quite why haven't I

594
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,920
haven't quite haven't gone
through obviously, but we felt

595
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,440
that was a pretty good place to
have and and nice and liquid for

596
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:43,080
for when we felt the world was
gonna change.

597
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,960
But we're still not calling it
into the Iran conflict.

598
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:48,000
I know the news flow the last
couple of days has been a bit

599
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:53,360
more positive, but it's a pretty
significant oil shock that we're

600
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,520
experiencing that hasn't really
started yet.

601
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,320
It feels like it's almost
starting now in terms of the

602
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:00,800
physical world.
And so we're just waiting to see

603
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,480
how that pans out.
What are the other ramifications

604
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,280
you're looking at?
I mentioned the issue is small.

605
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,120
So we we still have a number of
small cap stocks because that's

606
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:15,360
sort of a favoured place to
invest, but they need to be in

607
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:17,120
sectors with really strong
tailwinds.

608
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,560
If we don't feel the tailwind is
strong enough to to overcome the

609
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,800
liquid liquidity challenges some
of them are going to have, then

610
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:30,600
we'd prefer to be elsewhere.
You know, I think we are just

611
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:34,520
going to enter a very much
inflationary world and you know,

612
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,800
it's going to be good for
commodities for a number of

613
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,400
reasons.
I think the the era where

614
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:46,400
countries buy U.S.
Treasuries, so if the US dollar

615
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,320
goes up, they can still afford
to buy commodities without

616
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:50,840
getting exposed on currency
risk.

617
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,400
I think that era is going to be
reducing in a lot of countries

618
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,840
and companies are just going to
buy the commodities themselves

619
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,920
directly and just store them
directly.

620
00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:05,960
And you know, this running just
in time supply chains.

621
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,360
I think that era is coming to an
end.

622
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:12,640
We saw the risks during COVID
that, that, that creates and

623
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,040
that's, that's rearing it's head
again now.

624
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,760
So we think greater redundancy
for both countries and companies

625
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,720
is, is occurring and likely to
continue.

626
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:27,760
You know, we still think a lot
of the, you know, a lot of the

627
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,520
investment things we like,
whether it's, you know, I've

628
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,760
spoken a little bit about the
electrical grid in the US,

629
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:36,880
whether it's shipbuilding
capacity, whether it's data

630
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:40,640
centre CapEx.
You know, a lot of a lot of

631
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,400
these things are both national
security issues, but economic

632
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,120
issues as well.
And you know, critical minerals

633
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,120
is another one where even though
some of those things are

634
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:50,960
critical minerals has already
had a huge run.

635
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:55,480
We just don't think it's over
yet because, you know, currently

636
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:59,200
gets framed like or China
dominates a rare earths, for

637
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:03,200
instance, rare earth both
production and and processing US

638
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:07,760
is is working hard to try and
build up their their scaling

639
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,360
railroads.
We've seen some, you know, Sara

640
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,960
Verde deal recently.
Yeah, you know, price floors,

641
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:19,080
which we've seen with with MP
materials and and another group

642
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:23,360
list in the US.
But I I think it's not just

643
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,639
going to be the US and China,
like India is not going to want

644
00:34:25,639 --> 00:34:28,760
to rely on their rare earths
from either of those two

645
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:30,320
countries.
I don't think Europe is either.

646
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,280
Neither is Japan, neither is
South Korea.

647
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:35,280
So I think eventually you'll see
more and more groups getting to

648
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,040
this race to secure various
critical minerals.

649
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:43,080
And right now I think the lens
is really just on the US and

650
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,000
China.
But you know, more and more we

651
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,600
think these other countries in
Japan's already into the race.

652
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,880
But I I think that's going to
spread and there's just not a

653
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,159
lot of these deposits to go
around.

654
00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:57,720
Sounds very inflationary.
Does, yeah, it does sort of

655
00:34:57,720 --> 00:35:00,240
inefficient and inflationary,
but I think that's the world

656
00:35:00,240 --> 00:35:03,240
we're going into.
And Veritas specifically did I.

657
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:04,840
Yeah.
So we own Veritas, we like

658
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:09,600
Veritas.
So you know, we think Veritas

659
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,880
has a potential to to get an off
take done and and potentially

660
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,440
even a price floor.
I don't know if they get the 110

661
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,320
that some of the other groups
have gotten given if those

662
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,160
groups that have got those 110
price floors are further along

663
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:25,480
than Veritas.
For those that don't know,

664
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,640
Veritas is have got the Colossus
project in Brazil which they're

665
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,600
developing and take through the
fund to to final investment

666
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,800
decision.
We really like management.

667
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,320
Some of the board's been
strengthened recently with a

668
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,320
couple of additions, but you
know, you could see a couple of

669
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:46,040
things near term that could lead
to a rewrite on a stock that's

670
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:50,720
already done really well.
Was it was.

671
00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:55,680
It was, it got to remarkably low
levels at one point Veritas and

672
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:59,920
it it was like this year of
glaring anomaly just from a

673
00:35:59,920 --> 00:36:01,600
valuation perspective for a
period there.

674
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,320
I feel like it was right before
Rarest took off and the the EV

675
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,360
of Veritas was like 20 million.
Bucks just never raised enough

676
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:08,080
money.
Yeah.

677
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,920
Anytime you'd meet the narrow
always come rise.

678
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:10,960
Yeah.
And they didn't want to rise

679
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:12,440
because the stock was so bashed
up.

680
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:13,720
Yeah.
And it was the chicken in the

681
00:36:13,720 --> 00:36:17,560
egg once they got, you know,
well capitalised.

682
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,960
After the races.
And I mean, I think what's that?

683
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:24,240
I mean the the Sierra V8, it was
2.8 billion US, you know, it's

684
00:36:24,240 --> 00:36:26,600
ramping up in production so.
Worse geology by the.

685
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,600
Way that's right, that's right
so comparable even to Mei like.

686
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,960
Yeah, that was always the comp.
On a on a relative basis, we

687
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,960
think it still looks really
cheap even though it's had a a

688
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,840
significant run.
So we'll wait and see.

689
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:41,240
That's a Ding, Ding, Ding, by
the way.

690
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,400
But anyone didn't work, it was
the one that didn't work.

691
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,160
At all it was a former Ding Ding
Ding for me, but I I thought I

692
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,880
was a genius selling at $2.10
and then it because it did to

693
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,520
the market dollar jumps around
and now it's like higher again

694
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:53,600
anyway.
Yeah.

695
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,200
And everyone would just point
out Mei is right there, you know

696
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,640
where a fraction of the market.
Cap Yeah, yeah.

697
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,320
The I was looking at some of
your, your, your other mining

698
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,960
adjacent holdings Chris and, and
noticed MLG.

699
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,880
How how's your thinking evolved
with MLG over over time and

700
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,000
just, yeah, like thinking about
the implications of of diesel

701
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,760
dynamics, et cetera, et.
Cetera yeah, MLG has been hard

702
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:22,920
it's been a hard hole there's
not much free float on that

703
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:24,360
stock.
You know the inside owner.

704
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,400
It's great to have inside
ownership, but when it gets too

705
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:29,640
big, there's liquidity
challenges and it's.

706
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,440
Always been cheap.
Yeah, that's right.

707
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,640
I mean it's way, but I think Mt
is it's about $0.94 trading mid

708
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:38,240
70s, so really cheap.
I think it's fine, but the free

709
00:37:38,240 --> 00:37:42,080
float's challenging and it
really hasn't played its role

710
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,600
for us in the sense of like we
really, we write management,

711
00:37:46,720 --> 00:37:49,800
there's no issues there, but
probably didn't get the kick

712
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,400
with gold we thought it would
given how much exposure they've

713
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,320
got to gold.
That was sort of their thesis

714
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:57,600
that this was a lower risk way
to play gold.

715
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:03,240
I think north of 90% of the
revenue is coming from gold and

716
00:38:03,240 --> 00:38:06,880
it's, you know, we do like that
you do get that flaw when you've

717
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,080
got such a big tangible asset
backing.

718
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,840
So I don't think it's, it's
vulnerable here, but it's, it's

719
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:18,400
been a hard hold for us.
And they're probably the things

720
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,360
that have held it back.
That big shareholding is good

721
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,520
if, if management want to sell
and it's going to elicit a

722
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,480
takeover bid.
I I don't see that happening

723
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,160
near term because I think it's
worth a lot more than this.

724
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,640
So yeah, that's been a bit of a
hard one.

725
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,680
Another type of services company
which has a very similar set up

726
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:44,920
in terms of a large founder, 41%
AIH advanced energy things you I

727
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,320
think partook in the the IPO
right still holding or.

728
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,840
Still holding.
Yeah, we like that.

729
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:54,160
Like that's a pretty boring
company, but I think boring is

730
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:55,360
good at the minute.
Boring is good.

731
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:02,880
There's some selling around
which we think I think we know

732
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,480
why and that's OK.
Like sometimes people need to

733
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:09,320
sell.
We rate management, they've got

734
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:15,200
a takeover offer underway of
Matrix, which we think will be

735
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:19,040
good.
Can really consolidate the the

736
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:20,720
landscape in this part of the
world, doesn't it?

737
00:39:20,720 --> 00:39:21,840
Yeah.
And I think you're going to get

738
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,440
huge margin improvements for
that, that matrix business by

739
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,520
joining the 2.
And I just think it's, if you

740
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:30,880
look at all the different
divisions, the, the so the one

741
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,520
that made us really nervous was
wind, but even winds looking

742
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:41,600
attractive now, you know, winds,
undersea cabling, you know, oil

743
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,960
and gas is, is, you know, a huge
chunk of their revenue where it

744
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:46,520
comes from.
Like there's, there's really

745
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:48,000
good tailings in all those
areas.

746
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:53,840
We manage many good well funded,
the ability to buy, you know

747
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:57,920
bolt on acquisitions which still
isn't, you know, even after

748
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:00,880
Matrix they've still got the
ability to do that and we think

749
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:02,440
it's cheap.
So we think it's fine.

750
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:06,800
I think sometimes when
management are based in

751
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:11,640
Australia, it just takes a bit
longer for the market to maybe

752
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:16,360
get comfortable with the story.
But you know, when you've based

753
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,840
here, like they're here
regularly and they update

754
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,080
shareholders well, but when
you're based in Australia?

755
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,040
You know, you might be doing
school pick up and you'll talk

756
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,760
to someone and you're
effectively broking your stock.

757
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:30,960
It's just a lot more natural
ways to sell your stock.

758
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:35,360
So it's it's pretty liquid and
we think that probably is part

759
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,480
of the challenge.
But we think over time it's a

760
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,760
high quality business, they'll
they'll be able to overcome

761
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,200
that.
So yeah, we're very much still

762
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:43,760
there do.
Do you have like a stepping back

763
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:47,040
a broader view on, on the
services both mining and kind of

764
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:51,560
offshore as just cheap parts of
the market or because it does

765
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,040
seem to be a theme picking up
that you've, you've gone through

766
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,160
a fair few of these names and
you hold a fair few of the names

767
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,600
in, in that sort of space?
Yeah.

768
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:03,000
I think it maybe stems from we
want mining exposure, but we're

769
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,040
not technical mining guys.
So we're happy to take that risk

770
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,080
on at times.
Often when we like a commodity,

771
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:14,760
we might buy a basket of it.
But yeah, it's sort of been a

772
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:18,520
way to give us that hard asset
mining exposure without you, you

773
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:22,000
know, getting getting reselled
by the metallurgy.

774
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:26,040
So, you know, I mean, we've
still got a heap of stocks that

775
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:31,120
are unrelated to mining.
But yeah, that hard asset

776
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,600
thematic is a is a big part of
our portfolio at the minute for

777
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:34,640
sure.
Yeah.

778
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:37,400
And and you spoke about hedging
before and you know in the

779
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:40,800
context of Santos potentially
being a hedge to what we could

780
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,640
see, how do you think about the
the cash component of your

781
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,120
portfolio is just a a hedge and
plan it safe for?

782
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:49,720
Now, yeah, it's a, it's the most
important way we can hedge.

783
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,120
Our cash is not ridiculously
high currently.

784
00:41:54,120 --> 00:42:00,880
I mean, we're about 6% or so.
So we got a chunk higher than

785
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:08,480
that in March when we're just
trying to work out what was

786
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:12,240
going on.
But yeah, I mean, I think it's a

787
00:42:12,240 --> 00:42:14,600
scary time now.
I don't think it's a bad time

788
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,840
for asset prices.
I think it's a bad time for

789
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,520
currencies and currencies is
what measures those asset

790
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,120
prices.
So I don't want to be sitting in

791
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:28,600
a a heap of currency.
So yeah, it was that saying, you

792
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:30,720
know, it was so, so bearish.
We're bullish.

793
00:42:30,720 --> 00:42:33,760
There's elements of that
provided we're we're putting in

794
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,760
the right spots.
Yeah, we, we had this

795
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,200
conversation with, with somebody
who'd looked at the, the

796
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,440
commodities world very intensely
within, within BHB for for quite

797
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:46,280
some time.
And he created a simple kind of

798
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,960
matrix of Aussie dollar, U.S.
dollar, commodity prices low,

799
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,280
high.
And he, he essentially was

800
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,680
saying we're at a pretty rare
part of the cycle where the

801
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,560
Aussie dollar has been
relatively low.

802
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:02,200
It's appreciated of light, but
commodity prices have been

803
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,920
really strong for for Australia
in general.

804
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,840
So how do you think about like
where we are with the Aussie

805
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,240
dollar right now?
Well, I would if I had to, I'm

806
00:43:11,240 --> 00:43:13,640
not great at picking currencies
I'd earn on the Aussie dollar

807
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:16,200
strengthening from here.
You know, you're going to get

808
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,720
right for US differential in
terms of our rates are going up.

809
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:22,000
US rates are going to be flat
and I suspect they're probably

810
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:26,920
coming down and iron ore hasn't
been wildly strong, which which

811
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:31,400
I would expect to expedite that,
that that rise in the the Aussie

812
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,080
dollar.
But most of the commodities are

813
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:40,000
really strong and yeah, I, I
think if, if you think it's

814
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,320
going to be a commodity bull
market coming and that hard

815
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,720
assets are going to lead the
market, I would expect countries

816
00:43:45,720 --> 00:43:48,320
that are resource dominated like
Australia and Canada and Brazil

817
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,360
are going to see their, their
currencies appreciate.

818
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:52,640
So that's that's what we're
expecting.

819
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:55,640
Tasmia group.
Tell me about the thesis there.

820
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:58,560
We're out of Tasmia group
former.

821
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:04,520
Thesis.
Now they, the thesis there is

822
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,200
they're just, they're a mining
service operator, they're A roll

823
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:11,160
up.
They buy lots of different

824
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:15,720
businesses, keep the owners of
those businesses incentivised to

825
00:44:15,720 --> 00:44:20,440
stay on.
And you know, they, they run

826
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,320
those, those businesses in
different regional areas.

827
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:28,760
I think last I looked at that
about 2028 different operating

828
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,320
divisions and, and I get why
that makes sense because the

829
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,000
businesses they buy put in a
heap of money into the local

830
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,120
community and there's a heap of
goodwill in those businesses.

831
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:38,760
So they keep those divisions
going.

832
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,960
I guess sometimes for us, we
like to extrapolate at the

833
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:50,320
extremities and in terms of what
ifs and if there's 2000

834
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:52,240
different business divisions,
that's going to be problematic.

835
00:44:52,240 --> 00:44:59,080
So they're nowhere near that
yet, but we found it hard, you

836
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,040
know, when you, when you are
rolling up businesses, it's just

837
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,840
harder to work out what the
organic number really is.

838
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,840
And we end up getting more
comfortable with Meta Group than

839
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:08,880
Tasmania.
But we like the Tasmania guys.

840
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,240
They were, it was a really good
stock for us.

841
00:45:11,240 --> 00:45:14,760
We made some money on it.
But yeah, Full disclosure, we're

842
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:19,960
no longer no longer there.
On the flip side, Meta is it's

843
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,120
it's a remarkable business if
you own the equity.

844
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,520
It's dreadful if you're the
minor who has to keep paying for

845
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:25,560
their.
Yeah.

846
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:27,840
And look, they've underperformed
TAS, you know, like they're,

847
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,880
they're evaluation starting
point matters.

848
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,320
And we, we love the matey guys.
We think that's a great

849
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,800
business.
It's a it's a wicked, it's a

850
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:36,560
wicked business.
Yeah.

851
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:40,440
We really trust management.
We like the fact they've got

852
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,840
that US optionality, which was
probably the the thing that was

853
00:45:44,720 --> 00:45:49,040
when we first looked at it about
18 months ago or so.

854
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:50,440
That was the bit that looked
problematic.

855
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,640
But US is going really well now
and we think that's going to be

856
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:56,120
really important earnings driver
for them.

857
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,720
We think they're going to make
an acquisition which haven't

858
00:45:59,720 --> 00:46:01,400
done for a while.
They've got their new five year

859
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,680
plan coming up which should be
released any day.

860
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:07,400
So we're still there and we
think that's a really good

861
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,000
compounder.
Aussie Aussie business is going

862
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,040
to the States is is not a, you
know, not no guaranteed success.

863
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:17,040
No.
Yeah, many companies, many great

864
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,920
Aussie companies have done it
and failed dramatically so.

865
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:21,840
It's just a huge shortage for
skilled labour.

866
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,760
Like we, we often ask different
businesses, you know, I remember

867
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:30,720
asking the shape guys which do
fit outs for office buildings

868
00:46:30,720 --> 00:46:32,520
and you know, things like
supermarkets and stuff.

869
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,320
And they're really good business
which we don't own.

870
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,560
But if you could have any macro
sort of headline, you could open

871
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:41,240
up the paper and read it, what
would you?

872
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,520
And it would transform your
business.

873
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:47,000
What would it be?
And I thought it would be super

874
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:50,400
funds to 3X their investment in
office buildings or, you know,

875
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,320
Kohl's to do this or Woolworths
do that.

876
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:55,920
And it was if there was a cruise
ship coming here with 10,000

877
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,960
skilled, skilled, skilled
workers, that's what would

878
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:01,560
transform our business.
And you hear that time and time

879
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:06,280
again, You know, so much of the
skilled labour we have, not just

880
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,040
in Australia around the world
is, is ageing.

881
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:13,160
And you know, 20 or 30 years
ago, people got told if you want

882
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,440
to be a success, go to
university, you know, get an

883
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:18,280
arts degree.
Don't, don't get, don't join an

884
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:19,640
apprenticeship, don't become an
electrician.

885
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:22,840
And there's just a huge shortage
at a time when the world's

886
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:27,080
electrifying, you know, there's
data centre CapEx is dwarfing

887
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:29,640
any of the CapEx cycles in
history.

888
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,960
So it made it very much plays
into that.

889
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:36,200
It is interesting we, we talk
about on, you know, on the one

890
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:38,960
hand, having that AI theme if
they're not going to be any

891
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:40,600
jobs.
And on the other hand, so how

892
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:44,040
many businesses we speak to, we
hear about struggling to find

893
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,960
talented people or labour is so
expensive, you know, which is

894
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,880
the same thing.
So it it is interesting to kind

895
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,120
of step through that in, in
Australia specifically.

896
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:55,600
When AOL meets the robots, I
think that's when labour gets

897
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:57,400
scary.
You know, from an employment

898
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:01,840
perspective and you know, self
driving cars, it's sort of here,

899
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,360
you know, you can weigh MO in
the US without a driver like

900
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,360
that's coming.
That's a big displacement of

901
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:11,240
jobs, but there's still a way to
go before you get that real next

902
00:48:11,240 --> 00:48:14,280
wave of job displacement.
Yeah, skilled baby.

903
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:16,320
Doesn't matter when you when
you've got the robots that can

904
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:17,600
do it.
No, that's right.

905
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:21,640
That that's that's interesting
and yeah, I don't know when I

906
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:26,200
did lunch with a breakfast, it
was with industry like like

907
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,000
Titans of industry.
I shouldn't have been there by

908
00:48:28,000 --> 00:48:31,680
rights.
So impressive top 100 ASXCEOS

909
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,200
and and chairman.
And one of the things that came

910
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:37,800
up was a view that not was held
by one or two people.

911
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:44,560
The young people are lazy and
and it's sort of a lot of people

912
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,400
have that view.
You wonder if it's laziness or

913
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,560
just the incentives are wrong
for them to work hard.

914
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,720
You know, young people in the
70s could, could bust their arse

915
00:48:54,720 --> 00:48:57,640
and put a deposit on a house
after a few years.

916
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:03,400
You know, good luck.
You know, you see people getting

917
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:07,120
rich as activists or jobs which
you used to do in a past time

918
00:49:07,720 --> 00:49:09,560
because you're passionate about
something that's an

919
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:12,680
entrepreneurial venture where
you can make bucket loads of

920
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:15,840
money.
You wonder if it is a laziness

921
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:21,520
thing or just what happens when
assets and labour get so

922
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,280
disproportionately valued and
and the assets become

923
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:27,760
unattainable to a lot of people
who who seemingly play by the

924
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,200
rules and work hard and do what
they're told to do and still

925
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,400
can't afford to buy a house.
You wonder if it's laziness or

926
00:49:33,400 --> 00:49:35,760
just perverse incentives.
Yeah.

927
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,800
I mean, $1.9 million for the
median house in Sydney is just

928
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:40,440
insane.
And you've got such an

929
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:44,320
interesting lens that looking at
this through liquidity, through

930
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,280
fiscal policy, monetary policy,
these sorts of things, you can

931
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:49,280
see it happening on a on a big
scale.

932
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,800
You can see the the stock market
just growing.

933
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,320
And I think it gets worse.
Yeah, I think I.

934
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:59,600
Think like that, you know, the
the financial market thing, big

935
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,400
themes of of recent history are
all all an expression of this

936
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:03,960
too.
Like you know why is Poly market

937
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:05,800
big wise?
Yeah, that's right.

938
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:11,040
It's and, and it's so not, I
don't spend any time going, this

939
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:13,040
is what the policy should be
because it's OK.

940
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,800
It's a waste of time.
My time is spent trying to

941
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:19,760
analyse what I think the policy
response will be, not if it's

942
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:24,880
the right one or the wrong one.
And it's easy, like I just said,

943
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,320
will probably cost too much for
young people to be incentivized

944
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:30,720
to work hard.
But if you crash the property

945
00:50:30,720 --> 00:50:33,920
market, that's not a good
outcome for anyone either.

946
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,840
That's it's enormous job
displacement.

947
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:39,880
So I sort of think it just keeps
rolling on and sort of gets

948
00:50:40,760 --> 00:50:44,120
worse and worse.
You know, the system's designed

949
00:50:44,120 --> 00:50:45,760
for inflation and currency
debasement.

950
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:51,800
It doesn't work without it.
Yeah, deflationary bust is much

951
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,120
scarier than than what we're
seeing.

952
00:50:54,120 --> 00:50:56,480
And we've we've, we've seen that
in the in the Great Depression,

953
00:50:56,480 --> 00:51:00,080
that was a deflationary bust.
And and it's easy to stop that

954
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:03,440
happening.
Yeah, it's very, it's very easy

955
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,320
to to sound or or bearish about
a lot of things, but there's so

956
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:08,760
many good things about the world
today as well, healthcare and

957
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,440
all the advancements we're
seeing as well, so.

958
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,160
It wouldn't trade it.
Like, when would you prefer to

959
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:16,840
be alive?
Like, yeah, 1942 felt tricky,

960
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:23,720
you know, 1916 felt tricky.
So yeah, it's it's just finding

961
00:51:23,720 --> 00:51:25,600
that balance.
But I don't think you can just

962
00:51:25,600 --> 00:51:30,280
say, you know, the world's
amazing, everything's perfect.

963
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,560
And, and you certainly can't
whinge your mind when your kids

964
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:36,840
can eat and they can go to
school and, you know, most

965
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:38,120
people have access to
healthcare.

966
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:41,080
And yeah, it's finding that
balance.

967
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:45,240
But overall, I wouldn't try
living now for, for another

968
00:51:45,240 --> 00:51:46,760
period.
But it's got its challenges,

969
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:50,120
it's got its opportunities.
And hopefully we're there to to

970
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,280
exploit them.
Absolutely, absolutely.

971
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:54,680
When when we think about the
asset classes, you, you, you

972
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:59,400
play in stocks and I think we
spoke about this last time, but

973
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:02,200
do you think there comes a time
where you're you're more curious

974
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:06,720
about bonds, other other types
of asset classes or do you think

975
00:52:06,720 --> 00:52:10,000
you just stick to your knitting?
We'll just stick to our knitting

976
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,360
in the fund.
Yeah.

977
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:16,000
And I couldn't think of a place
I want to invest less than

978
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:21,520
government bonds, personally.
But other asset classes are

979
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:26,800
interesting and we've traded a
lot of them as PA.

980
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:32,320
So I've traded commodity CFDS PA
in my previous experience on you

981
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:33,880
could get up to 400 to 1
leverage.

982
00:52:35,000 --> 00:52:36,400
I didn't take the full 400
that's.

983
00:52:37,480 --> 00:52:39,320
Concerning.
Always that, always that.

984
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:41,880
A rush.
Don't remember trading silver on

985
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:45,560
the most astronomical leverage
and just like just not being out

986
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,600
of sleep like every month.
If I put.

987
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:51,800
Every month was just enormous
and, you know, sort of strung

988
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,720
out after sort of three or four
days and the kids came up and

989
00:52:54,720 --> 00:52:57,600
sort of asked me a question.
I'm watching CNBC, and I just

990
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,560
thought, this is not for me.
Like I did really well out of

991
00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:02,640
silver is.
This the recent run.

992
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,720
No, no, this is pre the fun.
This is just sort of COVID.

993
00:53:05,720 --> 00:53:08,600
And I was able to buy an
apartment at Bulla from the

994
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,640
Silver Run, but I'd never wanted
to do it again.

995
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:15,240
Yeah, I was like, that is
highly, highly stressful.

996
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,280
And so I, I think one of the
things investing is it's you're

997
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,320
really learning about yourself,
what you're good at, what your

998
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:26,320
skill set is, what your style
is, short term trading, you

999
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:32,160
know, commodity CFD investing is
not for me, but you do learn a

1000
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,480
lot from trading different asset
classes.

1001
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:36,680
You know, I mean, the
intersection between crypto and

1002
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,040
the real world is coming,
whether people like it or not.

1003
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,960
You know, like I haven't looked
recently.

1004
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:46,200
How many U.S. government bonds
stable coin companies are

1005
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:47,760
buying?
But I mean, I'm pretty sure

1006
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,040
they're a top 15 holder of the
US government debt.

1007
00:53:51,240 --> 00:53:54,360
Like it's unbelievable so.
And gold.

1008
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,240
That's right.
And I mean Tether owns more gold

1009
00:53:57,560 --> 00:53:59,760
than Bitcoin now, which who
would have thought?

1010
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:04,240
So, you know, there's real world
implications for that.

1011
00:54:04,240 --> 00:54:09,600
And there's a lot of policy you
can see, you know, moving to

1012
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:12,360
make crypto more important in
the US.

1013
00:54:12,360 --> 00:54:14,920
It's not, it's not something
that hits people's radars here,

1014
00:54:15,240 --> 00:54:18,640
but sort of stable coins and the
ability for them to soak up U.S.

1015
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:22,760
government debt at a time, you
know, when China doesn't want

1016
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:26,600
to, Russia's not allowed to,
Saudi Arabia doesn't really want

1017
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:27,680
to.
They want to invest in soccer

1018
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,240
teams and other things.
And Japan's been selling a lot

1019
00:54:30,240 --> 00:54:32,320
of their holdings.
Like someone's going to have to

1020
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:36,840
buy those bonds because two
trillion, 2 trillion plus

1021
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:39,320
deficits every year aren't going
to finance themselves.

1022
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:43,160
It's being open to to what those
options are and and stablecoin

1023
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:46,280
feels like potential, potential
assistance there.

1024
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,680
So if you, if you do a a bit of
PA investing that you, you, you

1025
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:54,400
can't do in the fund, what is
what's your favorite PA

1026
00:54:54,600 --> 00:54:57,360
investment right now?
I don't, no, I don't really do

1027
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:58,520
it.
Yeah, because I, I don't want to

1028
00:54:58,640 --> 00:55:03,880
spend the time on it and it just
ends up feeling like a bit of a

1029
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:07,880
distraction.
So I don't spend any time

1030
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:11,320
looking at stuff that the fund
wouldn't invest in potentially,

1031
00:55:13,280 --> 00:55:15,880
you know, maybe too small for
the fund, but we still think it

1032
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:18,080
might be interesting in, you
know, 12 months time or 18

1033
00:55:18,080 --> 00:55:21,840
months time.
And a part of me doesn't miss

1034
00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:27,600
being in really small stuff.
I suspect you guys like the

1035
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:32,440
smaller end of the market.
And I loved it for ages, but you

1036
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,600
can just get stuck.
Management teams are less high

1037
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:38,560
quality than they are, not
always, but often.

1038
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:42,920
And you sort of get sick of
being lied to after a while.

1039
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,560
So I don't really miss it.
I could see a world where I

1040
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,960
would really enjoy PA investing
again, but I think I'd be in

1041
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,680
sort of, you know, mid cap.
And then there's small cap

1042
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,200
stocks.
But 200 million bucks isn't

1043
00:55:56,200 --> 00:56:01,000
really a mino, the 200 million
to a billion dollar market cap,

1044
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:05,320
even if I was back to Pi
investing, think I'd still lean

1045
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:11,440
there.
Yeah, I I sort of, I think I'm

1046
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:14,720
valuing liquidity more and more
as I get older because it just

1047
00:56:14,720 --> 00:56:16,520
gives you the flexibility to
change your mind.

1048
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:18,920
Even though I had a great run in
the really liquid stuff, it was

1049
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,080
good fun.
Yeah.

1050
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:26,960
There's there's one commodity
based company which I think you

1051
00:56:26,960 --> 00:56:28,640
had as a holding maybe a couple
of years ago.

1052
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:30,960
I don't know if it still is
there, but Middlesex.

1053
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:32,800
Yeah, we're not there.
That was a cracker.

1054
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,040
Yeah, really liked it.
It was kind to us.

1055
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:41,440
We we're out now, out too early,
but that was that was good for

1056
00:56:41,440 --> 00:56:42,680
us.
We thank the market gods for

1057
00:56:42,680 --> 00:56:45,480
their opportunity.
Tin's been on a hell of a run.

1058
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:49,640
Been on a hell of a run.
Yeah we met with those guys that

1059
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:51,000
shown around a gold thing the
other day.

1060
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:52,200
Ohh.
Terami Gold.

1061
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,520
Yeah, it'd be great stuff.
Yeah.

1062
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:56,480
Which we didn't.
We didn't play, but they've done

1063
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:58,560
a great job with that.
Metals X, it was so cheap for so

1064
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:00,640
long.
Yeah, People struggled with the

1065
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:02,000
ownership structure.
Yeah.

1066
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:04,880
Are you guys still there?
Yes.

1067
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,280
Ding Ding Ding.
I I I do your own stock JD

1068
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:09,040
doesn't you?
Know you're a bit late with the

1069
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:11,040
Ding Ding Ding trap, but all the
time we're gonna get that.

1070
00:57:11,040 --> 00:57:14,120
Through to finish your point, I
just interrupt.

1071
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:16,000
My confines to have a good
double check of it.

1072
00:57:17,640 --> 00:57:19,240
But you're right, like I do,
Yeah.

1073
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:20,800
I wonder how much upside's still
there.

1074
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:23,480
And like I, I, I struggle to
sell it, to be honest, because

1075
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,120
it's I still, I just love tin.
So I shouldn't It's yeah.

1076
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:27,200
And there's not many ways to
play it.

1077
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:28,040
Like, what are you gonna go
there?

1078
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:29,520
Gonna go with alchemy and all.
Yeah.

1079
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,520
And to be honest like that is
that that is an option.

1080
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,800
Or the other one that yeah, hold
together Stella, which on

1081
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:37,720
Peddlesex has just picked up
whatever 17,000,000.

1082
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:39,040
Yeah, there's little Mintos,
isn't there?

1083
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:40,640
Which Middlesex have a stake in
town?

1084
00:57:40,760 --> 00:57:43,720
As well.
Yeah, the the tin space is is

1085
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:46,280
super interesting.
Should we wrap up with a

1086
00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:49,200
underrated overrated type?
Let's give it a go.

1087
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:51,640
Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna throw in
some other ones as well.

1088
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:54,360
There'll be higher, lower type
questions.

1089
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:56,480
Yeah, if if you if you get the
kind of drift there.

1090
00:57:56,480 --> 00:58:01,320
So the Aussie cash rate higher
or lower in one year time, one

1091
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:08,840
year time higher.
Gold north of US 6000 an ounce

1092
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:16,080
anytime during 2027.
Yes, I like that you use USI

1093
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:18,520
always use US.
Yeah, I feel the real mining

1094
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:20,600
people use Aussie.
Yeah, yeah, I'm happy with you,

1095
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:21,480
the costs.
Yeah.

1096
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,600
Yeah, yeah, US I'm more attuned
to personally.

1097
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:30,000
Yeah, the US 10 year to breach
5% in the next year, no.

1098
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:33,320
Oil.
The average The average Brent

1099
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:39,160
oil price in U.S. dollars in
2027 higher, higher or lower

1100
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:52,960
than 90 bucks a barrel. 2027,
first half, they are probably

1101
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:57,920
lower, they'll get lower.
Yeah, I think once things, I

1102
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:01,560
think the net outcome is oil
crunches down eventually, but

1103
00:59:01,560 --> 00:59:05,840
it's probably got 12 months even
if the war dissipates today.

1104
00:59:05,840 --> 00:59:08,200
But then I think the net outcome
is it, it comes down pretty

1105
00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:12,120
sharply eventually.
The the AI CapEx filled out

1106
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:14,880
underrated or overrated?
Well, I think it's real.

1107
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:19,640
Whether or not it's a smart way
to invest capital, I don't know,

1108
00:59:19,640 --> 00:59:24,360
But I think it's happening.
I know it's happening.

1109
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:25,720
I can.
See.

1110
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:29,320
It's happening, yeah.
Tungsten overrated or

1111
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:31,880
underrated?
No, not here.

1112
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:34,400
I I think I override it here.
I mean killer run.

1113
00:59:34,400 --> 00:59:37,560
What was EQR $0.05 in December?
That's amazing.

1114
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:42,640
The hats off to those that
played, but I think once those

1115
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:45,520
small metals run like that, I
think they're overrated.

1116
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:48,240
What do I have a generalist
investor too.

1117
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:49,520
Go on.
Sorry, JD, no.

1118
00:59:49,600 --> 00:59:52,360
No, all good, All good.
Silver, I know you.

1119
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:54,720
You wrote a bit about it a few
months back.

1120
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:57,280
We need to.
We need to draw a line in the

1121
00:59:57,280 --> 00:59:58,720
sand somewhere.
So underrated.

1122
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:01,960
Overrated at 75 bucks.
I felt like the Vince McMahon

1123
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:05,560
meme 'cause I I tipped silver as
my commodity of choice.

1124
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:07,960
Yeah, when I came on in December
with you guys.

1125
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:11,000
Go there with him.
And then it ripped and I had all

1126
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,200
these people texted me going,
oh, you must be making so much

1127
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:14,760
silver.
I had no exposure.

1128
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,560
I felt like just Vince McMahon
sort of crying.

1129
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:19,720
And then he shaved his head,
'cause it's hard to play.

1130
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:23,280
And do I think it's overrated?
Yeah.

1131
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:28,080
I think silver at 75 is is find
to own and and to buy.

1132
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:34,760
Yeah, I think it goes higher.
I kind of go go with yeah mining

1133
01:00:34,760 --> 01:00:37,600
services esque type type of
business.

1134
01:00:37,920 --> 01:00:42,800
Minrez at 65 bucks.
This one hurts me a bit because

1135
01:00:42,800 --> 01:00:46,600
I think Chris Ellison is such a
gun and I made a promise to

1136
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:49,840
myself.
We were talking to fund manager

1137
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,280
TDM in Sydney.
I really liked Yeah.

1138
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:56,040
And they bought them at 12 bucks
and they just, I don't know if

1139
01:00:56,040 --> 01:00:58,600
they're still there, but they
just held them and they would

1140
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:00,280
be, they would have topped up at
17.

1141
01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:05,760
And and I remember thinking, you
get a guy like Chris Ellison, to

1142
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,160
me, he's a bit like, I don't
know, Bezos, a version of Bezos.

1143
01:01:09,160 --> 01:01:12,440
So, you know, the sort of US
entrepreneurs you really want to

1144
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,320
back.
And I thought if they had to get

1145
01:01:15,320 --> 01:01:18,240
crunched like that, I'm just
going to back the truck up.

1146
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:21,880
And then here they were at 17
and I'm telling this story and I

1147
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,000
just couldn't pull the trigger
at the time.

1148
01:01:24,000 --> 01:01:29,560
Like that made me a bit nervous,
you know, lithium.

1149
01:01:29,560 --> 01:01:32,200
So a very long winded way of
saying I didn't buy it.

1150
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:36,200
And I'm not buy it at 65
personally, but I wish I'd

1151
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:40,680
bought it at 7, Yeah.
I've got another slightly

1152
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:43,680
different one.
Given we are filming in the in

1153
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:46,400
the great state of Victoria,
people are very bearish about

1154
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:51,040
the Victorian economy.
Is the the consensus mode around

1155
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:53,280
Vic underrated or overrated?
I.

1156
01:01:53,560 --> 01:01:57,160
Think, I think the state is
struggling at the minute.

1157
01:01:57,160 --> 01:02:00,480
Yeah, I think that's, I don't
really know whether underrated

1158
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,000
or overrated is the right way to
answer that.

1159
01:02:02,320 --> 01:02:04,920
Are are are people too bearish,
do you think?

1160
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:06,680
Or do you think that's pretty
justified?

1161
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:10,520
I think it's justified, yeah.
We'll always have you back.

1162
01:02:10,720 --> 01:02:15,360
Chris Yeah.
And it won't last forever like

1163
01:02:15,360 --> 01:02:18,960
these things are, you know,
temporary by nature, but

1164
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:21,800
temporary can be two years or 20
years.

1165
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,800
There's just not many assets to
sell now, which makes it

1166
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:27,040
different to the last time
Victoria was in this place in

1167
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:29,320
the early 90s.
So it'll come with eventually.

1168
01:02:29,320 --> 01:02:32,400
But I think, you know, I have a
lot of small business owners in

1169
01:02:32,400 --> 01:02:34,400
particular.
I think things are very tough in

1170
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:36,800
Victoria at the minute and
different to the rest of

1171
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:38,160
Australia.
And you notice it.

1172
01:02:38,200 --> 01:02:41,640
I I feel you feel it when you go
to Adelaide, when you go to

1173
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:45,960
Perth, Queensland, I feel the
mood is wildly different.

1174
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:50,120
Do you guys feel that?
Yeah, energy, what we've spoken

1175
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:51,440
about is a big part of that as
well.

1176
01:02:51,560 --> 01:02:53,400
And that's been a a slow burn
here.

1177
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:56,960
But it's just key input costs
for so many businesses.

1178
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:59,440
You, you, you definitely feel
it, definitely feel it.

1179
01:02:59,680 --> 01:03:01,400
Birth is up and about.
You see it in the house prices.

1180
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:03,880
Big time.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1181
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:07,240
I, I, I think it's a great place
to leave it.

1182
01:03:07,240 --> 01:03:10,560
And yeah, delighted that you
could share your views with us,

1183
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,960
Chris, And Congrats on the, you
know, remarkable performance

1184
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:15,920
from Masterity today since
you've started it.

1185
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:17,960
And yeah, look forward to
speaking again in the future.

1186
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:19,640
Thanks gents, really appreciate
it, it's good fun.

1187
01:03:20,040 --> 01:03:22,280
Big thanks to our partners
Sandvik Ground Support,

1188
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:25,040
Intralinks Focus, the platform
by Market Tech, Woody, the

1189
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:28,600
platform by Costmine
Intelligence, Exceed Capital and

1190
01:03:28,600 --> 01:03:29,920
Metals Hub.
Check them out, Goodaroo.

1191
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:33,800
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

1192
01:03:34,080 --> 01:03:36,200
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

1193
01:03:36,200 --> 01:03:38,840
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out

1194
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:39,320
disclaimer.