If this were Doomsday, Markets would Show It (Alyosha)

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Jenny, we are, we're trying to
figure out what the future looks

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like.
And I, I'm pretty sure that to

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figure out what the future looks
like, you've just got to ask

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people who have experienced as
many cycles as possible and have

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been so in tune with markets for
that entire period of time and

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people who write about it so
diligently.

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I think that's a great way to
look at it.

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And I think we've got the
perfect guest today.

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So JJ is the fellow who's
joining us.

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He writes under the sub stack
name Alyosha.

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And when you reference having
experience, JJ has a wealth of

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it.
And it's from a much different

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lens to most the other people
we've interviewed in the show

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previously.
He has been a pit trader in the

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States.
So you know, those those images,

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those videos you see of people
physically shouting out, yelling

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out, trading commodities,
trading precious metals, trading

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oil, all these sorts of things.
And we got hooked on his writing

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some time ago.
And I would highly recommend any

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of the listeners out there to to
check it out under the name

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Alyosha because it just sucks
you in.

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He's got a fantastic way with
words and that experience just

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bleeds through in in his
writing.

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So go check that out.
He's he's brilliant at just

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tying in the historical context
to the Today.

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And it's just funny.
It's quite funny to read.

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He is he is every every sentence
I think he puts it has to earn

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its place in, in its in its
paragraph in the writing.

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And you feel that you see that
it's so insightful.

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So it's one that we regularly
share in the newsletter.

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But before we give you a dose of
JJJJD, we've got to thank our

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marvelous partners who, thanks
to them, bring you this

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wonderful podcast and
conversation with JJ.

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It's of Sandvic ground support.
Sandvic Ground Support

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Cornerstone, wonderful partner,
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a long time, led by the billion
dollar man at the front, Mr.

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Derek Hurd.
Mate why do people need Sandvik

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These guys, as we've highlighted
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of technology.
They're coming up with new

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equipment all the time.
We on the day this episode is

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announced, Travis, are going to
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We're going to go see some
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If they're not, I'll be chucking
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Which you can do on the app
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Absolutely can go Sandy ground
support Chuck and order in right

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now over to JJ.
All right, money miners, we have

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a super exciting guest.
We've got JJ with us comes with

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a wealth of experience as we, as
we sort of touched on in the

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intro there trading in the metal
space, in the energy space.

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So JJ, thank you for joining us.
We're we're super excited to

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chat.
Thank you, gentlemen.

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I'm I'm pleased to be here.
It's, it's, it's the evening for

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you and it's, it's the morning
for me.

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So I've got some very bright sun
coming in the room.

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That's why I have everything
kind of dark.

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Here we're, we're just coming
into to Easter time.

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So the, the, the, the, the times
are kind of changing on our end.

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But when we look at geopolitics,
things are as interesting as

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they've, they've ever been.
It's, it's been wild on that

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front for quite some time.
And the last month has been no

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exception.
I was kind of tossing up

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speaking with Trev, where should
we kind of start this, this

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conversation?
And there was a true social post

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from, from Trump that I can't
think came out in the last day

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or so, which is a natural
kicking off point because it

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just dominates so much of the,
the conversation.

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So I'd love to hear because
you've been following it super

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closely.
You've been writing about it,

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how you see the situation poised
in in the Middle East and what

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that kind of means.
I don't think it's been a war

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yet.
It's been a conflict, a violent

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negotiation, excuse me, but
there's been very, very limited

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mortality.
I think 15 Americans have died,

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20 Israelis, about 1500
Iranians, according to their own

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count, which is fewer than
mortality in a single day in

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Ukraine.
So calling it a war is kind of

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glib.
I think it's, it's, it could be

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a war.
It feels a lot like, you know,

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if you were to go back in time
imagining what D-Day would have

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been like in 1944, a tremendous
buildup of troops.

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Obviously, there was something
imminent coming. the US has been

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gathering its forces now for a
few weeks with I think at least

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50,000 men in the region.
But I don't think it's going to

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be the kind of, you know,
massive ground invasion on Utah

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Beach or anything like that.
What we're looking at is, is

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AWMD situation without any kind
of atomic detonation.

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In other words, the the two
sides have asymmetrical but

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equal force opposing each other.
On the one hand you have the

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Iranians who have the ability to
destroy most of the GCC regions

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and in Israel's a water which
they rely on 99% from desalina

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tion.
These are coastal installations,

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soft targets, almost impossible
to defend and they have the

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capability missile capability.
They've proven that type of

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precision accuracy destroy them
within, you know, within a few

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minutes actually.
So to do that, you know, would

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have the very same kind of
catastrophic effect of of a

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single strike device on millions
of people, massive disruption,

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dehydration, suffering pretty
much.

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And, and on the other hand,
Trump has the very same equal

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power to send Iran into the
stone, agency said, You know,

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put them in a state of utter and
complete darkness, No

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electricity, no refrigeration,
no elevators, no hospitals.

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Their backup generation would go
in two or three days.

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Anyone on life support or
anything like that would die.

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So, you know, the the
catastrophic nature of what

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we're looking at I think is
overlooked by a lot of people,

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not because it's been so, so
kind of like TV tame, you know,

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yeah, the bombing and the the
flashing at night and all that

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stuff.
But, you know, as I say,

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mortality is, is, is fewer
deaths in the entire month.

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That's the single day in
Ukraine.

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So we're coming to the edge of
the world here right now with

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Trump, you know, and he has no
options.

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There's no time now.
I mean, even ExxonMobil says

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that if, if, if we were to have
the straight open today, but

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there's probably 300 million
barrels behind the street right

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now, plus that's in ships, plus
the Saudis have built storage on

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shore, which is about 300
million barrels.

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So let's just say there's 600
million backed up there behind

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the straight.
Even if they were to open that

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thing right now, because of the
shut insurance and impairments

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and curtailments, it might, it
might be 6 months before they

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could begin to normalize their
previous rates of production.

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So, you know, if we leave that
unattended, that rate of decay

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is going to accelerate down.
The only thing that sustains

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them right now is their
sovereign wealth funds have

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acquired over many years about 6
or $7 trillion, and they are

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substituting a loss of cash flow
from oil sales with sales of

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assets which have had an impact
on the little markets.

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As you see, you know, S and PS
over here have been under

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pressure because equities are,
of course, the deepest, most

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liquid source of immediate
liquidity, U.S.

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Treasury bonds.
This is the first time since

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1950 in any great conflict that
that bonds didn't go up because

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they're selling, you know, and
you're going, whoa, what's going

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on with bonds?
Well, OK, the Arabs are selling.

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Gold is not a strategic asset.
You know, I think that they had

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maybe this very somewhere
between 15 and 17,000,000 oz.

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So they've been selling some
gold, but you know, gold at

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$5000 doesn't take a hell of a
lot to knock it down. 100 bucks

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or 200 or 500 actually.
So they might hold their gold.

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But there's, you know, we'll
talk about gold in a minute.

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At any rate, let's just wrap up
where we are with the GCC and,

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and, and this war here.
No leader in the world would

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want the responsibility of
putting millions of people in a

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state of calamitous risk where
it is possible, rather than

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having like a single strike
instantaneous, you know, death

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of millions like Hiroshima or
something like that with these a

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kind of if you do this to me,
I'll do that to you.

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You know, you, you, you knock
out my power.

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I'm going to knock out your
water and all your resources.

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No leader wants that
responsibility.

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But the Iranians, you know, and
on our side, in other words,

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your Prime Minister or anyone in
Europe or, you know, Carney in

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Canada or even Trump.
But this is falling on, on

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Trump.
And I don't, you know, I don't

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want to talk about the politics
of whether he's right or wrong.

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He's way, way beyond that right
now.

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Someone has to open the
straight.

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That has to happen.
If it does not happen, an

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inverse calamity will sweep
across the planet as as 30% of

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the world's production is at
risk of being destroyed.

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Destroyed organically by doing
nothing.

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In other words, let's just say
I, I curtailed your breathing.

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I, I pinched your nostrils and
then I cut off half your mouth

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and then I closed your mouth.
That's really what's happening

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with the story of news now.
So if we're going to save that

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anatomically, it has to have the
kind of tracheal opening.

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And I don't, I don't know, you
know, I mean, as far as Iran

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being able to charge a toll
going through, well, why, why

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wouldn't the United States
charge a toll for going through

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the Bering Straits or the
British charge a toll for going

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through the Channel or any other
international waterway which the

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world has has the legal right to
use freely.

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So, you know, that's not a
question.

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It's got to open up.
And here we are, the only guy

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who has, you know, who has the
say yes or no, happens to be

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Donald Trump, one of the most
unique characters.

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I think in my time, perhaps in
many, many years, this will be

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studied.
What's happening, what we're

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doing today.
This will be studied in colleges

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for the next 1000 years, perhaps
more.

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Getting a sense of where we are.
You know, this is not like for

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just a front page story.
This is global.

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This is a completely different
asymmetric type of weapons of

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Mass Effect or mass disruption
where the outcomes, if they're

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allowed to unfold, would be no,
no less, as I said, calamitous

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than Hiroshima.
You know this Grasp that 90

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million people in Iran, no
electricity, no power, no

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refrigeration, the elderly, the
young, the children, darkness,

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darkness for many, many months
and years to fully rebuild or

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all of the desalina tion.
And I don't know, you guys know

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enough about what's going on
over there, gets wiped out all

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at once.
And I don't think that there's a

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logistical way it particularly
because, you know, I, I've been

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a little pejorative here about
the Europeans and the Chinese.

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There's just so damn prissy
saying, oh, it's not my war, you

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know?
Well, it is your war.

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Whatever happens on this planet,
whether it happens in Australia,

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whether it happens in
California, whether it happens

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in Paris or London is yours.
You own that.

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I own that.
Our silence, we could go on X

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anytime we want it.
You, you, me.

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So I don't, I don't agree with
this.

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I don't want this.
But our voices, you know, all we

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are is we're like, yeah, well,
let's what's what's going on in

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the war today, you know?
But when it happens, if it

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happens, you know, I would say
that the blame for what would

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happen falls on every,
everybody, everybody.

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You, me, them, us.
She, Starmer, Mccrone, von der

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00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:12,080
Leyen, MERS, all of them.
Carney, Trump, all of them.

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I left out your Prime Minister
because you're a stratifist.

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You get where I'm coming from,
right?

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A. 100%.
You can't walk away from this

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one.
No, you can't.

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You can't say oh, he did it or
he did it.

223
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,760
That, that that doesn't wash
this time.

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00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:40,600
This is not this is not 1944.
So I'll leave you with that.

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00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:45,160
I, I think you've done a great
job there, JJ at, at, you know,

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00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:49,480
summarizing the, the, the
precariousness of the situation

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00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:52,480
we're kind of in.
And there's this so much to, to

228
00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,800
kind of get into from there.
You made the comment on how it's

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00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,960
perceived or I was inferring how
it's kind of perceived in the

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00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,800
States at the moment.
Perhaps there's not such a big

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00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:06,560
deal and you're kind of seeing
this in the prices of, of some

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00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,920
financial assets out there.
Is is that the case that you,

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00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:12,600
you think right now, because we
sit here in Australia and, and

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00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,400
we're starting to to feel it
with, with days or with fuel,

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00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,800
these sorts of things because we
are so reliant on what comes out

236
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:22,200
of that part of the world.
But this American energy

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00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:23,480
independence and these sorts of
things.

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00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:26,200
Do you think that for the time
being has diminished how it's

239
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,360
felt in in your part of the
world?

240
00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,000
Well, we're pretty.
I don't know.

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00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:41,720
How do I say this?
We have a lot of oil, so we

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00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:46,120
don't feel that right.
We're the largest producer of,

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00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,760
of petroleum fluids, crude.
We have Canada right on our

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00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,480
border.
Canada's massive energy giant

245
00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,160
Trump just started this new
relationship, I guess you could

246
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,560
call it, with Venezuela, which
is 300 billion barrels of proven

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00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:10,320
reserves, 500 years, they say,
of natural gas between the

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00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:15,160
regions and the north and in our
hemisphere, 500 years of

249
00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:19,280
consumption at current rates.
Plus we're using coal, a massive

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00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,160
amount of coal.
We have alternative energies,

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00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:30,720
renewables.
So the K of, of, of energy is

252
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,520
immense.
You know, so we're, we don't

253
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:38,560
have problems like Europe, you
know, they've, they've got a

254
00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:41,080
serious problem over there.
Russia, of course, you know,

255
00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:45,360
they're a huge producer and
they're eight days away from

256
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,520
China and Japan.
So they can fill that hole.

257
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:58,040
You know, if Canada wanted to,
they could duplicate the Trans

258
00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:03,560
Canada very, very quickly with,
you know, fast tracking and

259
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,599
bridge and some of these other
Trans Canada pipeline companies.

260
00:17:07,599 --> 00:17:09,800
They could get a pipe to the
West Coast and move another

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00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,040
million there in a very, very
short period of time.

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00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:18,440
I think they're crazy that they
haven't done it, but I don't

263
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:22,880
know, you know, I grew up with
half of my family, Canadian,

264
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,440
half, half American, so I
couldn't understand them.

265
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:35,680
They're remarkable people
anyway, so oil's not a problem.

266
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:42,000
We have.
We have a lot of debt, like

267
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,640
everyone.
But that in itself is also, you

268
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:50,160
know, kind of hyperbolic.
The balance sheet of the globe

269
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,600
is really, it's very, very
strong.

270
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,200
Everybody has tremendous
resources, tremendous human

271
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,480
capital.
We know so much AI is just an

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00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:07,720
expression of that.
We're we're circumnavigating the

273
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:13,840
the moon this weekend.
You know, the idea that we're

274
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:20,240
that we're limited in any way by
a handful of of plutocrats and

275
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:28,080
profligate politicians, you
know, is, is just, it's it's

276
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,800
just click baiting nonsense.
There have always been

277
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,240
plutocrats.
There have always been, you

278
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,440
know, skeevy grifting going on
in politics.

279
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,280
This is just something that
like, you know, it's not

280
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:41,880
something that I think you
should worry about.

281
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,960
If you're an investor, you're
never going to make any money

282
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,240
betting on the end of the world
ever.

283
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,800
So don't.
I'm an old man now.

284
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,040
You know, I always said to
myself, you know, when I when I

285
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,480
first went into gold, my father
said, you are crazy.

286
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:00,800
This is where all the lunatics
are going.

287
00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:04,480
He said, go to the stock market.
That's where the great money is

288
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,120
made.
And I said, no, no, no, Ted, you

289
00:19:06,120 --> 00:19:07,400
don't know what you're talking
about.

290
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,520
So I bought seats on the Comex
and I went into commodities for

291
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,880
years.
But, you know, over time, you

292
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:16,560
look back at your life and you
say, where do I make a lot of

293
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:17,600
money?
You know, you're probably going

294
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:19,640
to make a lot of money on your
business.

295
00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:25,960
You're going to make a lot of
money on, on stocks.

296
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:32,440
You know, my wife and I, we own
stocks that we've had since the

297
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,600
80s, you know, and you make
money.

298
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:41,360
You make money doing nothing.
Just do your job, you know, try

299
00:19:41,360 --> 00:19:45,360
to try not to get run over.
I own some gold.

300
00:19:45,360 --> 00:19:47,360
I bought some gold.
I've been a gold all my life,

301
00:19:47,360 --> 00:19:49,240
actually.
So I have Kruger ants from the

302
00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:53,000
80s and they just sit in the
sock drawer and they'll probably

303
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,400
go to my kids.
So, you know, this is just one

304
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,680
of those things, you know, that
we're going through right now.

305
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:04,800
I hopefully it will, whether you
like him or not, you know, Trump

306
00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,040
has some things going for him
that are really pretty good.

307
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,520
He's a businessman.
He's a builder.

308
00:20:10,360 --> 00:20:13,000
He likes peace.
He'd rather he'd rather butt

309
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,240
heads in trade rather than
bullets.

310
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:20,960
But he's not afraid to.
To fight, You know, like anybody

311
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,000
else.
I worked on the floor for years.

312
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,560
I mean, every now and then you
had a fight.

313
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:29,840
You had to fight.
You had, you had your traders

314
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,040
usually don't leave their pits.
You have the guys around you who

315
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,640
are your friends and your
allies.

316
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,240
And so there are other guys that
you are your wouldn't say

317
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,920
enemies, but they're your
competitors, your adversaries.

318
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,800
And if you're not going to, if
you're not willing to fight for

319
00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,160
your money, you're going to lose
it period.

320
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:52,640
That's that's life, man.
And and it's never going to be

321
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,680
any different.
So over here we're pretty chill.

322
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,200
We have we have everything we
need.

323
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:04,240
And as much as we complain about
our leaders, I think they're as

324
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,680
good as they've ever been.
So we're we're pretty OK.

325
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,720
It, it, it might be a bit of a
tangent, but I'd love to hear

326
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,680
what, what sucked you in about
commodities?

327
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,640
I mean, we've got it.
Clearly most people listening to

328
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,440
this podcast got it.
What what sucked you away from

329
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,920
working in in bonds, in in
stocks into the the COMEX and

330
00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:27,440
Nymex back in the day?
Well, I was a 60s rebel.

331
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,360
You know, I had hair down the
middle of my back.

332
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:34,560
I was, my father was an Army
guy, also very successful

333
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:41,880
businessman in New York.
So for, you know, my teens, I

334
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:45,360
went away to boarding school.
I went away to school.

335
00:21:45,360 --> 00:21:48,240
I didn't really have a lot of a
close relationship with my

336
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,160
father.
Kind of waspy kind of thing.

337
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,760
You know, it wasn't like a huggy
thing.

338
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:57,240
We shook hands, we wanted to
express respect for one another.

339
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,400
So I, we became alienated.
And you know, I was, I got out

340
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,840
of school, I was doing odd jobs,
roofing, barn roofing, hay,

341
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,840
drywall, construction and so
forth.

342
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,760
I was in New York, he lived in
Gramercy Park and I, I was

343
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:20,800
working at Maxis, Kansas City
with busing tables and 2425

344
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:22,560
years old.
I was just sick of being broke.

345
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,880
So I, I went to see him and I
said, can you help me get a job?

346
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:32,600
And he, he did, he got me a job
on Wall Street as a runner.

347
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:37,200
And I went from the Stock
Exchange to a better runner's

348
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,120
job working for Continental
Grain.

349
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:45,280
And I, you know, I went up.
I went up as soon as I saw the

350
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:47,400
floor the first day I walked on
the floor of the exchange.

351
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,680
I said, I can do this.
I want to do this, you know.

352
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:59,320
And so I, I got there somehow,
you know, I, I went to my boss's

353
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,960
who, who the county commodities
was the name of the company

354
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,400
under Continental grain, which
is one of the largest privately

355
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
held companies in the world.
And I said, you know, I'd like

356
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,280
to, I'd like to get it get into
the office.

357
00:23:12,280 --> 00:23:16,440
And I was a kind of go getter,
even though I didn't have to be

358
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,680
at work until seven.
I was always there at sick at

359
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,720
six.
I, I got the brokers coffee, I

360
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,040
did errands for them.
I rolled up the Dow Jones tapes

361
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,920
the end of the week.
I took them home and I read them

362
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,640
all.
And I decided, you know, I'm not

363
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:38,440
a in in my day, there really
were no geniuses.

364
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,760
You know, those guys were in
books.

365
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:48,600
Trading training was really like
a Guild kind of thing where the

366
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:54,400
guys on the floor had the edge
to make prices buying and

367
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,560
selling and all you had to do
was participate.

368
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,400
If you were selling twos, you
bought them, right?

369
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,720
You try to buy one 80s when it's
2 bit if you could, you know,

370
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,520
depending on what kind of size
was there.

371
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,920
And then you you'd sell 2 and a
halfs.

372
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:14,160
So during the course of the day,
you know, you're really thinking

373
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:15,560
about where the market was
going.

374
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,440
It was just was is it busy, you
know, and how much flows going

375
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,080
through?
And then, you know, you kind of

376
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,920
you evolved from there because
we didn't have Bloomberg, we

377
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:29,400
didn't have BLS statistics.
No one was telling us, you know,

378
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,760
what employment was.
We didn't really care.

379
00:24:32,360 --> 00:24:36,280
You know, all the news that came
to the markets came through the

380
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:40,760
phones and they and the
expression of of, of whether or

381
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:45,160
not, you know, it was meaningful
was really the way the market

382
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,480
auctioned that that kind of
information.

383
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:52,560
You know, prices would move and
then the story would follow it,

384
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,920
which is the natural way of
things, right?

385
00:24:55,480 --> 00:25:00,200
Today it's the opposite.
Wall Street creates stories and

386
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,640
then they use volume to validate
them.

387
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:08,280
So you create a story at 8:30 in
the morning, you know, non

388
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:15,840
foreign payroll rose 110.
Prices follow that, right?

389
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,680
Prices are following the story.
That's a bullshit market.

390
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:25,440
But really the real markets are
prices move.

391
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,000
So look at the way things are
happening right now.

392
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,080
You know, if this was the end of
the world, do you think gold

393
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,840
would be unchanged?
If this was the end of the

394
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,720
world, would stocks be
unchanged?

395
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,080
Right.
Interest rates unchanged, Would

396
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,680
they just be sitting there?
No.

397
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,600
I mean, if we thought we were
going to, if the shit were

398
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,800
really going to hit the fan,
these markets would be moving.

399
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:54,160
And they're not.
So whatever they're telling you,

400
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,080
the the market is not validating
what they're saying.

401
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:01,520
And that's a very, very
important point for you guys

402
00:26:02,360 --> 00:26:03,920
when you're looking at
something.

403
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:11,520
I remember, I remember COVID JJ
and it felt like in the in, in

404
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,680
the month, maybe two months
before the market really shut

405
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,160
the bed there.
It felt like there was, there

406
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,600
was enough Intel about the
situation that was freely

407
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:25,920
available and on Twitter.
And it was just like, you know,

408
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,280
the, the inertia of the
mainstream just hadn't caught up

409
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:29,240
yet.
And then all of a sudden it

410
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:33,720
caught up all at once.
And I know that this, this

411
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,280
situation is very different
because everyone has had so much

412
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,160
time to put put together
potential scenarios and

413
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,400
everything.
But is there, is there not a, a

414
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,040
possibility that, that markets
just have so much inertia?

415
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:50,320
They're complacent.
They're, they're, they're,

416
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,720
they're, they're in that they're
expecting the best case scenario

417
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:57,840
as opposed to the downside.
And hence and hence, you know

418
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:00,240
lots of these markets you
mentioned are flat.

419
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:03,880
I don't know, I can't answer
that.

420
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,320
I can only tell you what the
market's doing now.

421
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:14,560
You know, I, I have a kind of a
process of looking at markets

422
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,560
everyday.
Go look at a monthly chart.

423
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:18,680
Even though it's monthly and it
doesn't change much.

424
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,560
I always start there in the
morning and like a weekly we got

425
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,360
daily, hourly, take it down into
different fractal samples and

426
00:27:25,360 --> 00:27:32,680
say, you know, I always have a,
a really good sense of where the

427
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,520
market was.
You know, that doesn't mean I

428
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,000
know where it will be, but it
gives me a, a, a solid

429
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:44,360
confidence in, in why it is
where it is.

430
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:56,280
And right now socks are high,
incredibly high.

431
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,080
Everybody's talking about, you
know, gold going to 8000 or 6000

432
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,120
or this, that.
And the other thing, $5000 gold

433
00:28:03,120 --> 00:28:05,040
is high.
It's extremely high.

434
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,000
The reason why it's high, you
ask yourself why?

435
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,520
Why?
Because it takes a lot of money

436
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:17,840
to get a market like gold to
double its market cap in a, in a

437
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:20,880
year or two.
I mean, the market cap of gold

438
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:25,680
is, I don't know whether it
doubled, but it was in the teens

439
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,000
a couple years ago and now it's,
it's, it's in, in the 30

440
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,800
trillions.
There's 7 billion oz 7.

441
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:37,400
Just do the math.
It takes a lot of money to get

442
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,800
it there, right?
Which means a lot of my people,

443
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,760
institutions, everybody else has
committed the, the amount of

444
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,800
cash they have to that.
So they're in it.

445
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,880
And the same thing is going on
with equities.

446
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:57,480
Fixed income is, is I think at a
very, very low ebb and heavily

447
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,480
short.
Right now bonds are very, very

448
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:08,160
short.
So gold could go down 1000 bucks

449
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:13,160
just because, you know, we,
let's say we, I don't think this

450
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,640
is going to last a long time.
No matter what happens, this

451
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,280
conflict thing, it's going to be
resolved.

452
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,120
The straight has to open.
That is it period and how messy

453
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:26,440
it is.
That's that's the aftermath.

454
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,560
But you know, that's actually
just going to have to happen.

455
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:34,200
I'm hoping that this is what I
hope is that these politicians

456
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,840
who have chops like she and
Europe especially call Iran and

457
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,720
say, hey, dude, you're not
getting the straight.

458
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,200
That's it.
You're not getting the straight

459
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,120
period.
But they're not, see, they're

460
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:52,320
not doing that.
And I, I, so that's, that's

461
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,280
going to happen even Even so
when that oil comes out from

462
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,800
behind the straight oil is going
to go straight down.

463
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,880
There's 140 million Russian
unsanctioned oil in floating

464
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,000
storage right now in Asia, which
I think is, you know, which is

465
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,840
helping suppress those prices.
There was 100 million of

466
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:18,440
Iranian, there's 400 million
coming from the IEAS SPR

467
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:19,960
release.
I mean we're talking about a

468
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,120
billion barrels.
You know, that's that's 10 days

469
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:24,960
of supply.
It's a lot of oil.

470
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,840
Plus the US has taken in 50
million in the last six weeks

471
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:33,880
into our storage.
So I mean we're getting up into

472
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,760
like COVID inventories in the US
right now.

473
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,320
Prices are really high.
So when you get high, high

474
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,160
prices, what do you think
producers do?

475
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:51,440
They sell, you know, you, you
want it, We got it.

476
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,520
And I don't know whether you
watch the oil curves.

477
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,000
I traded oil all my life, gold
and oil.

478
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:04,760
I mean, just the TI curves are
like May, May, June.

479
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:08,000
This is like a $12.00 spread, 10
or $12.00 spread.

480
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,520
I don't know.
Let's look at it, see where it

481
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,960
is.
Where is it?

482
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:20,280
May, June, May, June is trading
thirteen O 4 this morning.

483
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:27,640
I mean, I you know, for a guy
like me who's traded this all my

484
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:35,280
life having, I don't know, 480
million barrels in in inventory

485
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,600
and that's in pad 3, pad 2, pad
1.

486
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,520
I mean that's that's life.
That's having having people pay

487
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:48,160
13 for May over June.
If if that if the Strait opens

488
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,480
and this, this oil, you know,
becomes available to the market,

489
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,760
The first thing that's going to
happen is the GCC guys, the

490
00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:04,280
Saudis, the Iraq, anybody who's
been shut out is going to go

491
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,640
after market share because
Russia has taken it.

492
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:12,640
We have taken it, Norway has
taken it and they want it back.

493
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,760
They they've been not going on
5-6 weeks out of the market.

494
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,040
Somebody else sleeping with your
wife, right?

495
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,960
It's going to be a market share
war.

496
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:30,160
And there's a vast amount of oil
and oil is just like anything

497
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,600
else.
You know, you don't need to pump

498
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,160
it.
You if you, if you have it in

499
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:37,080
the ground, you can borrow it,
you can borrow it and you can

500
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:42,560
sell it.
So that's that's coming, I

501
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,760
think.
It's super, super daunting for

502
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,640
for the market, but we'll see
what comes to pass on, on that

503
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,360
front.
On your comments on gold, JJI

504
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,720
was reading a recent piece you
wrote, I think it was titled to

505
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,400
the effect of what's going on
with gold right now.

506
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,680
And there was this line that was
just screaming out at me that I

507
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,440
wanted to ask you about.
And you said gold is the only

508
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:09,040
market that is always right.
And I'm really curious to to

509
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:18,120
know what you meant by that.
OK, well, there's there's the

510
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:23,200
line the ferryman says in Hess's
Sidhartha, the river never

511
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:27,760
moves, right.
So you've heard the classic

512
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:29,440
throwaway.
You know, when I was a young man

513
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:30,960
of gold coin bought me a new
suit.

514
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,680
Now I'm an old manacle coin to
buy me a new suit, right?

515
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,280
In terms of I, I wrote this, I
can't remember what it is.

516
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:47,920
Let's just use oil.
So the price of gasoline in the

517
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:52,960
harbor in New York right now is
about 20% cheaper than it was in

518
00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:56,880
2008 nominally, right.
So it's settled at three O 7 on

519
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:58,120
Friday.
I don't know where it is.

520
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,280
I I can't see my leaderboard
right now, but it's, it's a

521
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:07,240
little bit lower.
So the high in 2008 was 360.

522
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:12,239
So just nominally is 20% lower.
If we were to take ACPI

523
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,400
inflation of adjusted dollars,
the price of gasoline is about 2

524
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:19,000
bucks a gallon right now at the
pump here in America.

525
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:25,239
So it's about 40% lower in in
adjusted dollar prices.

526
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:29,480
So we, the purchasing power of
the dollar has lost 85% of its

527
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:33,800
value since 1975 when gold was
legalized.

528
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:39,080
So 85% of 5000, forty $500
because that's where it is right

529
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,960
now.
We put gold at about 600 bucks.

530
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,840
It would put crude at around $15
a barrel.

531
00:34:49,639 --> 00:34:53,840
And in 1975 the high for crude
was around 1350.

532
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:58,280
So, and I've done this work
going all the way back to 30s,

533
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,880
you know, the river really never
moves.

534
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:05,560
The the value of money is
constantly depreciating because

535
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,640
that's the way we manage our
lives, you know.

536
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:11,240
So what they do in Australia, we
do it here, we do it in Europe,

537
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,120
is it right?
I don't know, you know it, It is

538
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,440
what it is.
This is the way we, we manage

539
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,280
our lives, debasing our
currencies.

540
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:28,240
And so generationally each
generation has the same rate of,

541
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:34,480
of, of realities, difference in
realities.

542
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:42,160
You know, we, my generation sees
the S&P from a base of 150, your

543
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:45,880
generation sees it from a base
of probably 2000.

544
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:54,600
So, you know, and, and if we
were to use my generation's

545
00:35:54,720 --> 00:36:03,360
money, like I said, oil is $15
versus 13 1/2 in 1975, the SAP

546
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:09,720
would be like a $900 item 900,
not 7000, right?

547
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:16,280
So keeping a sense of, you know,
like gold, gold is like, it's

548
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:21,760
like the sun and the solar
system of orbiting financial

549
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:26,080
entities and everything else is
moving around gold.

550
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:31,240
So when you see gold going up,
if you can try to imagine the

551
00:36:31,240 --> 00:36:35,240
reality of, of the Flat Earth
idea.

552
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,880
Gold is not moving, everything
else is going down.

553
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,200
The faster gold goes up on your
board, that's the faster

554
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,920
everything you own is losing
value in terms of your own

555
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:52,800
money, your house, your hammer,
your hat, your bag of groceries,

556
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:58,520
your car, all of those things.
If you were to express that in

557
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,560
Australian dollars, it's it's
actually going down.

558
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:08,440
Only gold is going up because
that's the way we, that's the

559
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:12,560
way we do it.
That's it.

560
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:18,080
And so stop thinking about gold.
Like everything else, it's this

561
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:22,520
little pituitary gland and the
anatomy of all our finances that

562
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:28,280
keeps everything in balance.
That tiny little gland, I don't

563
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,400
know where it is.
I think it's like here, that's

564
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,800
the pineal.
But you know what I'm saying?

565
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,280
Totally, totally.
I was listening to a

566
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:38,680
conversation with with Russell
Napier, sort of financial

567
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,040
historian and he spoke about
this and looking, looking at

568
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,320
data going back 800 years,
speaking to the to the same

569
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,320
effect.
You know, gold doesn't

570
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,760
appreciate depreciate it, it
holds its value and you can go

571
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,640
back and you can see that over
such a long period.

572
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,960
It's a it's a wild thought to,
to think about on on such big

573
00:37:55,960 --> 00:37:58,600
time frames.
If we, if we pivot slightly to

574
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,520
another precious silver is
something you've written about

575
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,160
and something you followed for a
long time now.

576
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:08,880
And January and Q1 in general
might have been one of the most

577
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,880
spectacular quarters we've seen
for, for commodity in, in quite

578
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,280
some time.
There were the, the trap shorts,

579
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,280
you know, the, the volatility
right at the end of that month,

580
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:23,000
Jan, Jan 30, marking I think
about 120 bucks.

581
00:38:23,720 --> 00:38:26,680
How did that month kind of weigh
against your your experience of

582
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,600
following that market?
I knew it was coming.

583
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,320
I wrote about it.
I started writing about it in

584
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:36,240
2024.
And everybody said, JJ, get out

585
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,240
of here.
There's no shortage of silver.

586
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:44,040
I kept writing about it, you
know, and, and as we got into

587
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,960
the, the bigger moves in the
spring of 2025, after, you know,

588
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:53,440
we had that, that tariff day
crash and everything came back.

589
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:59,080
Gold started really going up in
September of 2025 is when, when

590
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,640
silver really started going
higher.

591
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:06,520
And I, I have written many times
saying you guys just don't know

592
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,320
what you're getting into here
with silver.

593
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,800
You know, it's no clue what
silver can do.

594
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:17,000
Silver is not gold, but it has a
lot of gold DNA in it and it has

595
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:23,440
a lot of cultural, I don't know
what to call it appropriation

596
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,120
from gold.
So people, you know, they think,

597
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,760
oh, gold's going up.
I'm going to buy silver.

598
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:37,280
So, you know, I got a of I was
long silver for all the time and

599
00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:38,760
writing about it and bullish on
it.

600
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,800
But I got out in December.
I got out early.

601
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,160
You know the old saying, oh, my
rich friends sold too early

602
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,840
anyway, so I missed really the
last leg up.

603
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:57,120
But I don't care.
You know, I made, I was very

604
00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:01,720
happy with with the way my trade
worked out and I wanted to get

605
00:40:01,720 --> 00:40:06,240
as far away from Krakatoa.
As I could because I knew it was

606
00:40:06,240 --> 00:40:09,920
coming and I, you know, what
good is it to ride a market, you

607
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:14,640
know, from, I don't know,
whatever price you get in, let's

608
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,520
say you got it in the 50s to the
40s to the 30s or something like

609
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,200
ride it all the way up to 120.
And then you know, you're

610
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,080
trading it all the way up your
long and then it goes down 40%

611
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:27,880
in one day, you know, and then
you know, for all of the people,

612
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:32,640
it's just the way markets work.
You know, people come in late.

613
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,680
I'd say there's just a lot of
money lost.

614
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,120
And I didn't want to be anywhere
near it.

615
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:45,200
And I did not want it.
I, I never told my readers, you

616
00:40:45,240 --> 00:40:47,920
know, like, buy this, buy that
or anything like that.

617
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,640
But if I feel strongly about
something, I will tell them what

618
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:53,080
I'm doing.
You know, I say, I'm looking at

619
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:54,600
this.
That's what I wanted.

620
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,040
This is where I, this is where
my attention is right now.

621
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:58,840
This is where the voice in my
head is going off.

622
00:40:59,600 --> 00:41:02,320
And so if I'm writing that all
the time and you're reading what

623
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:04,920
I'm writing, you know, you know
where I'm coming from, right?

624
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,240
And I don't have to tell you
where I got it.

625
00:41:07,240 --> 00:41:09,840
As a matter of fact, I could
tell you guys and all your, all

626
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,520
your listeners where where the
price of cruise is going to

627
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:15,560
close tomorrow, right?
And every one of us would have

628
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,400
different trades, every one of
us.

629
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,080
So let's get it right away.
Some of us get in a couple

630
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,760
hours, some of us get in $5
higher or lower or something

631
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,680
like that.
And I bet you probably at least

632
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,840
70 or 80% of the people, even
though I told you would lose

633
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,760
money 'cause that's just the way
way people are.

634
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:39,680
So I don't want to drag people
into, you know, into silver when

635
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,800
I know.
So I said, you know, I'm, I'm

636
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,680
out.
And then I got a whole lot of

637
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:48,120
people saying, you know, but
you're out.

638
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,920
What are you doing?
I said, I have this saying, you

639
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,360
know, I've been saying for a
long time, I always leave a

640
00:41:54,360 --> 00:42:01,040
party when you're having fun.
Just the greatest discipline in

641
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:05,840
trading is getting out.
Getting it is easy.

642
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:09,560
It's so easy to say yes, you
know, on an impulse, this, that

643
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,520
and the other thing over time,
you know, you get burned doing

644
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:16,760
that.
If you, you know, you getting it

645
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,280
is important, but direction is
most important.

646
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:25,280
If you have direction right then
and confidence in your direction

647
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,920
and you can weather being too
early, you can weather bad

648
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:36,960
location and so forth.
But you know, getting out is 1.

649
00:42:37,720 --> 00:42:42,760
It's really only one word I can
say that that's enough.

650
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:48,760
You know, how much is enough?
Like when I was on the floor, I,

651
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:52,080
I built a pretty big brokerage
company, you know, it's one of

652
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:55,960
the largest paper brokers
filling, filling orders in the

653
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,280
pits.
And so during those years, I put

654
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,040
35 guys in the ring, guys, you
know, I hired grand grand union

655
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:07,600
bag and groceries order clerks
at the Essex Diner who could

656
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:11,120
just do great math in their
heads, you know, And the only

657
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:15,520
thing that you really needed
from, from, from a skills

658
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:18,560
perspective, if you're going to
work on the floor, you had to be

659
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,800
honest, because we were on the
honor system.

660
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:22,080
You had to honor all your
trades.

661
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:24,600
You had to honor all your words,
no matter how much you hated

662
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:28,480
guys or anything like that.
You, you saw 102 and it's 8 bid.

663
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,360
You're writing down 102.
You're going to lose that 60K

664
00:43:32,360 --> 00:43:36,360
that's gone, right.
So the other thing is you had to

665
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,840
be numerate, add, subtract, do
multiply in your head very, very

666
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:42,760
quickly and be accurate.
If I turn around and I had 1000

667
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,080
lots on my card and I handed it
to my clerk, I said what's my

668
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:48,400
count, right?
I wanted that count in 15

669
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:53,640
seconds and it had to be right,
otherwise I was going to lose

670
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:58,400
money, right?
So those two skills, you know,

671
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,240
and you start out, it's like a
Guild.

672
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:04,720
You're a write up clerk, then
you get to be a booth clerk,

673
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,120
then you get to be a phone
clerk, then you do ARB.

674
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:09,960
And if you're really good at all
those things, then you get to go

675
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:14,280
in the pit and you get a sponsor
and your sponsor puts you in the

676
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,680
pit.
And by the time you finally make

677
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,600
it in the pit, the whole
community, the entire trading

678
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:24,640
membership knows you.
They know you like a golf player

679
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:28,800
knows you, they know you, they
know you've got backbone, they

680
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,080
know you.
They know you can add, subtract.

681
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:35,440
They honesty is a given, is
expected.

682
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:38,240
And all of those things are in
place.

683
00:44:38,240 --> 00:44:44,240
And then you're allowed to go in
and handle, handle a lot of risk

684
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:50,600
and and trade with everybody.
JJ, you've been, you've been

685
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:55,320
writing a very long time and I,
I'm just like, I'm just curious,

686
00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,880
how would you synthesize your,
your trading philosophy and, and

687
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:03,440
how would that differ from most
other financial writers trading

688
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:08,320
philosophy?
Just get the ball over the net.

689
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:15,240
You know, that's how you win the
games.

690
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:22,840
You know, your, your job is not
to be a genius.

691
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:28,400
You know, participate.
If there's a rumbling and you

692
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,480
know, Nancy, Nancy Pelosi's
buying NVIDIA, you don't have to

693
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,920
buy 10,000 shares.
You don't have to buy 5000

694
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:38,760
shares, buy 100 shares.
Just participate, right?

695
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:45,120
Exxon breaks out what it's not
really a thoughtful process when

696
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:50,680
the best company in the whole
world with a credit rating equal

697
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,960
to or greater than the United
States Treasury that's never

698
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:57,560
skipped a dividend in an oil
market is breaks out.

699
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:02,240
You don't have to be, you know,
just buy something, buy 50

700
00:46:02,240 --> 00:46:07,680
shares, buy one share.
I, I don't know, don't, don't,

701
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:11,680
don't put a lot of pressure on
yourself about about being

702
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:15,640
right, although nothing works
better than being right.

703
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,480
Put a lot of pressure on
yourself about managing losses.

704
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:30,320
I think 90% of good trading is
participating and, and getting

705
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:36,240
out, getting in is, is it should
be, you know, it's just you

706
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,280
should, you should be kind of
intuitively constantly

707
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,440
contingency planning all of the
things.

708
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:44,440
You know, if this happens, that
happens, that's so you're not

709
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:46,200
thinking, you know, you're
reacting.

710
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:48,880
You know what's going to happen,
right?

711
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,760
You, I'm telling you guys, this
is what I, this is what I'm

712
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,320
thinking anyway, if we have
peace, depending on how it

713
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,520
unfolds, if they open that
straight, there's going to be a

714
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:59,960
shit load of oil coming out.
So how are you going to react to

715
00:46:59,960 --> 00:47:05,320
that 'cause believe me, things
are going to start moving, you

716
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:09,280
know, and have a plan.
Have a plan and stick to it.

717
00:47:09,720 --> 00:47:12,840
Always have a stop.
You can have a stop in gold.

718
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,680
You can have a $4000 stop and
it's trading 4500, you know, But

719
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:20,920
if you have that stop, you can
never move that stop.

720
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,240
It's got to, it's got to be a
hard stop.

721
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,880
If you don't have a hard stop,
you wind up, you know, you wind

722
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,840
up owning some shit stock.
I don't know, like like Beyond

723
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:35,320
Meat or something like that.
It went from 60 bucks to like

724
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:39,440
50-8 cents.
You know, you, no matter how,

725
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:43,880
how it, you know, like my wife
ran the gold desk at Lehman.

726
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:50,800
This is after we were married.
And so, you know, a lot of her

727
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:56,760
money was in Lehman stock.
And in 2008 she stopped working

728
00:47:56,760 --> 00:48:00,480
in the 90s when we had kids, but
she had a lot of Lehman stock.

729
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:04,360
And in 2008, you know, we had to
have a stop.

730
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:09,400
So I mean, trading 60, even if
you have a $30 stop, you have to

731
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,000
have that stop.
What, what happened to Lehman?

732
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,800
Of course we know, right?
If you didn't have that stop,

733
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:19,000
you have zero.
I, I worked at Refco.

734
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,800
Have you ever heard of Refco?
Yes, largest futures broker in

735
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,600
the world, right.
They did an IPO in 2005.

736
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:31,880
So we all got shares and I, you
know, I, I have not only got

737
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:36,520
shares, but I bought a lot of
shares because my wife told me.

738
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,320
She said this is where you make
a lot of money.

739
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,720
You know, when your company goes
IPO and you're that, that good

740
00:48:41,720 --> 00:48:43,560
and you're that big, you should
really load up.

741
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:47,320
So I had a lot on.
So my average entry price on

742
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:49,880
what I bought was probably
around like 18 or 20 bucks.

743
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:55,160
And I closed at $30 one day and
I just got out of half.

744
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:59,760
Just I didn't tell anybody.
I just thought I'm I'm taking

745
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:04,880
half of this money.
So about two weeks later this

746
00:49:04,880 --> 00:49:12,760
guy, Phil Bennett lied on the
IPO disclosures and they found

747
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:17,520
out about it.
And I had a stop and the rest of

748
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:23,880
my Refco stuff at at like you
know, some kind of 20 or 17 or

749
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,520
18 or something like that that
went on the opening.

750
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,200
Four days later Refco closed at
$0.25.

751
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:39,720
So stops got to have them.
Wow, wow, You you've got a

752
00:49:39,720 --> 00:49:43,520
fantastic way with with writing
as well, JJ And I'm curious from

753
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:47,720
from the trading lens on Trav's
question just there how, how

754
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,880
vital that is to your process as
well of being a good trader.

755
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:56,360
Well, no, I'm not.
I never think of myself as a

756
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:58,440
good trader.
You know, I've been able to

757
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:04,080
educate my kids and and raise a
family, but I'm by no means

758
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:08,440
rich.
You know, I could have been, but

759
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:14,560
I just, I just missed a lot.
You know, it was a pretty good

760
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:18,400
ham and Egger, I'd say.
But you know, if you, if you

761
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,440
look at all the guys who, who
came off the floors, the

762
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:27,000
difference between US and our
skill set and our ability to see

763
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:31,400
value and, and trade it.
Although we, we all had our own

764
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,960
different ways, might have been
one, one thousandth of 1%.

765
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:38,600
But it is that tiny difference
that makes the difference

766
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:41,520
between a guy like me and a guy
like Druckenmiller.

767
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:47,320
In order to survive making
money, you have to be

768
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,640
profitable.
Most people can't.

769
00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:58,040
That's just the way it is.
So going from profitable or

770
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,080
making a decent living at it to
making a lot of money at it.

771
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,840
That's the difference between
what you were saying, being a

772
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:05,960
good trader.
So why do I write?

773
00:51:10,720 --> 00:51:12,800
I, I've always been a broker who
writes.

774
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:21,920
I love writing.
And I know, I, I know a lot that

775
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:26,120
you will never know because you
didn't, you weren't born where I

776
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:28,040
was born.
You didn't, you know, you

777
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:29,920
didn't.
You go to school in the 60s and

778
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:35,800
70s and you never will.
So if I don't write it down,

779
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:43,840
it'll, it'll all be gone.
And I've, I've, I'm leaving a

780
00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:46,320
pretty good record.
I've written about.

781
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:48,840
I've actually, I know what I've
written.

782
00:51:48,840 --> 00:51:52,560
I've written over 1,000,000
words on Substack, over 1000

783
00:51:52,560 --> 00:52:00,200
pieces since I've I've started
writing in the summer of of 2024

784
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:07,560
and I write twice a day.
So I'm hoping, you know, in the

785
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,240
end what I'll be able to do is
create a compendium.

786
00:52:10,280 --> 00:52:14,120
If you ever you know, and I'm
gone 'cause I can't keep doing

787
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:21,000
this forever.
You can go to a book called

788
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:26,040
Market Vibes and you can say
what was happening on December

789
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:31,920
13th, 2025.
You can see the chart, right?

790
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:35,560
Something happened, so you'll be
able to go back and you'll see

791
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:41,240
exactly what I wrote about it in
my style, which is not your, not

792
00:52:41,240 --> 00:52:44,880
your average.
It's, it's not like what most

793
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:50,480
people, the way they write about
it, but it'll, it'll be, it'll,

794
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:55,240
it'll give you a sense of how it
felt rather than what the data

795
00:52:55,240 --> 00:52:59,080
says.
Your style is unique JJ.

796
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:04,840
It's addictive to read as, as JD
mentioned, you've got some

797
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:07,320
unique characteristics about
about your style of writing as

798
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:09,400
well.
And that's an uncharacteristic

799
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,160
abusive lowercase as opposed to
capitalizing.

800
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:17,520
I've just got to ask why?
Because I don't want to yell at

801
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:22,000
you.
I want, I, I just want you to

802
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:26,120
consume it, you know?
It's sort of like I'm taking the

803
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:31,440
salty, spicy stuff out of it and
letting you make what you want

804
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:42,920
out of it.
You know, basically I, I, I, I

805
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:46,560
think one of the most important
things that people need to work

806
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:54,360
on when they're approaching
markets is humility and avoid,

807
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:59,720
avoid, you know, measuring
yourself against the market or,

808
00:53:59,960 --> 00:54:03,440
or other people.
You know, I didn't make enough

809
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:07,600
on this or, you know, I was
talking to, I made friends with

810
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:10,600
Rupert Mitchell, who's one of
your guys down there, the blind

811
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:15,000
scroll, completely different
type of approach to the markets

812
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:22,840
than I have, right.
So I mentioned to him that on

813
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:27,400
Facebook IPO, it came in at 50
and I, I didn't do anything and

814
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:32,080
it dropped to 38 I think the
very next day, or it may have

815
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:35,040
dropped to 38 that day, open to
50 and went down.

816
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:40,200
And I, I said to him, man,
that's one of the, my worst

817
00:54:40,200 --> 00:54:46,080
trades that I didn't do, right.
I, I should have on Facebook

818
00:54:46,080 --> 00:54:48,680
then I, I should have
participated, right?

819
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:53,560
But I went back and I checked it
and it actually went down to 19

820
00:54:53,680 --> 00:54:57,560
in, in that week.
So there was just this massive

821
00:54:57,560 --> 00:55:02,680
gaping opportunity to get into a
generational stock.

822
00:55:03,320 --> 00:55:06,320
And I'll let it go.
You know, I missed that one.

823
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:19,160
So anyway, I, I, I write about
markets from that perspective.

824
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:25,640
You know how how it felt to have
been in silver constantly

825
00:55:25,640 --> 00:55:30,600
telling people because I traded,
you know, I traded silver in

826
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,880
1980.
I was working for Norton

827
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:34,960
Waltuck.
I was in the pit in those days.

828
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:38,160
I made a lot of money standing
next to a guy named Frankie Lisi

829
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:45,840
and I lost every penny up, down
right that that really hurt me.

830
00:55:46,400 --> 00:55:50,360
I had to sell my seats.
I had to go back to the back of

831
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:53,640
the line, become an ARB clerk.
I worked for Rudolf Wolf for a

832
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:55,600
while, got up on an ARB stand.
Finally.

833
00:55:55,720 --> 00:55:57,520
They, of course, I was really
good at it.

834
00:55:57,840 --> 00:55:59,720
I brought in a lot of business
and made some money.

835
00:55:59,720 --> 00:56:02,640
So they put me back in the ring.
But I went back into the ring

836
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:04,640
again with a tremendous sense of
humility.

837
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:07,640
You know, I, I, I don't want
that to happen again.

838
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:14,560
So the 80s were really great
years for me and I, I think the

839
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:18,960
late 70s were really bad for me.
I came, I had a lot of

840
00:56:18,960 --> 00:56:25,680
advantages, as I said as a kid.
And I was arrogant, snotty.

841
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:30,520
I thought it, you know, I
thought I was going to make wild

842
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:32,960
amount of money and it was never
going to end.

843
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:36,560
And then boom, you know, well,
the market has a way of, of

844
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:41,000
chastising you for that kind of
behavior.

845
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:46,880
So humility is, is it's really
an important thing to try to

846
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:49,400
remember you, you, you don't
lose touch with that.

847
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:54,200
I think a point on on humility
is a is a great spot to leave

848
00:56:54,200 --> 00:56:56,480
this conversation.
JJ, really appreciate you

849
00:56:56,720 --> 00:56:59,680
joining us sharing your, your
experiences, your thoughts on,

850
00:56:59,720 --> 00:57:03,040
on the current state of markets.
And if any of the the listeners

851
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,960
out there, they can track you
down under the name Alyosha.

852
00:57:05,960 --> 00:57:08,000
We'll include it in the the show
notes.

853
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:11,080
But I would I'd recommend they
go and check out not only your

854
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:14,840
daily writing, but some of the
short stories going back over

855
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:15,960
over the years of your
experience.

856
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,240
They're just fantastic reads.
So I'd highly recommend them.

857
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:21,040
Get in touch.
Thanks again for for joining us,

858
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,840
JJ.
Thank you very much, gentlemen.

859
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:27,400
I, I appreciate it.
You can reach me at

860
00:57:27,520 --> 00:57:33,120
jj745@substack.com.
Fantastic.

861
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:36,240
Thank you, one we've wanted to
make happen for quite some time.

862
00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:38,920
Thrilled that JJ could join us
and share some wisdom.

863
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:42,400
Massive thank you to Sandy
Ground Sport Interlinks Focus,

864
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:46,040
the platform by market tech Nat
Gen. and Meadows hub Hoodoo.

865
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,720
Hoodoo.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

866
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:52,440
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

867
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,960
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

868
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:56,480
and you need to read out a
disclaimer.