Hunting For Outliers (Tony Manini)
Tony Manini joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on a career built around discovery, from leading the team that found Sepon in Laos to the wild ride of Oxiana/OZ Minerals and the founding of EMR Capital.
Tony lays out his core belief that exploration and investing are fundamentally the same venture capital game — all about managing probabilities, sizing the prize, and having the discipline to cut losers early. He digs into the people he hires for, why the best opportunities show up countercyclically when nobody wants to know, and the story behind backing NexGen at 5 cents.
In this conversation, Tony covers:
• Why exploration and investing are both a probabilities game
• Leaving Rio to join Oxiana and riding the cycle to OZ Minerals
• Backing NexGen at 5 cents and the discipline of taking profits
• How to evaluate junior mining companies more effectively
• Countercyclical investing, search spaces, and his discovery framework
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TIMESTAMPS
(0:00) Upsides and Cut Losses
(6:10) Branding and Cost of Capital
(15:10) Leaving Rio for Oxiana
(23:20) Capital Markets Lessons
(31:20) EMR Capital Origins
(37:00) Incubating NexGen Energy
(43:40) Andina and C3 Case Studies
(55:20) Okvau Artisanal Myth
(1:01:10) Seven Portfolio Picks
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