Have investors overblown Cobre Panama’s risk?

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Righto money miners, just savvy
ground sport.

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That's all you got a bloody
think about.

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This episode is brought to you
by Derek Hurd and the bloody

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team.
Split sets all the way to D

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bolts, good mesh, all the ways
to seismic.

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Seismic mesh.
Just the best ground sport in

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the world and the best, most
reliable supplier for it.

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Ground best in the business.
It's in the night.

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It it is in the night now that's
grounded, isn't it?

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Seem to ground support, yes.
Does support the ground?

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Yeah, it does.
It does.

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Freebie for you there, Grant.
Right.

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What do we got today?
Oh God.

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Let's just RIP straight.
We got a chance.

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So we're pretty much we, I
buggered up, we had to record,

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re record one of my bits and
then we got to the end and

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realised we didn't even fucking
record any of it.

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So we can confirm hopefully if
you listen to this record and

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this one.
Can we have the same

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conversation again without it
sounding like we're having the

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same conversation again?
Well, even the second time was a

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bit different to the first time,
so we'll see how we go.

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I reckon we're talking about
first Quantum, we're talking

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about Cascabel and Soulgold.
We're talking about a bit of

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Wheeling and dealing in the
uranium space at the at the

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junior end with Boss Energy and
Laramide and a little overview

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on Orabanda at the expiration
end of their bits out in the

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goldfields.
Let's go.

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Yeah, right.
Let's RIP in.

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So boss, boss have acquired come
out this morning, acquired stake

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in Laramide.
So this fills the gap of where

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the extra bloody listed
investments they had that we

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didn't know where it was in the
quarterly.

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I think they put 10 million US
into Encore, but they had 30 odd

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million in listed investments.
So we're thinking they've either

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topped up Encore or they bought
something else.

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So because it says today they've
got 9% of Larimod at Canadian,

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$0.60 a share and that's on top,
that takes them to 18.4 total.

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So they obviously held 9.4 under
custodian which makes up for

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that listed investment things.
They're obviously being chipping

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away at that.
So I think Larimod, we've talked

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about them before.
I think they say their flagship

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asset is the Westmoreland
uranium project in Queensland

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and they've obviously they've
also got some stuff in New

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Mexico which sort of has a link
to to boss in Hawaii as well,

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maybe do.
You think the appeal is the the

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Queensland stuff or the New
Mexico stuff?

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More I think.
A bit of both because

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Queensland's got a moratorium.
Moratorium got it right.

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That's the third time if I
can't.

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Moratorium on the uranium which?
Means it's just not allowed.

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What do I say, Mauritanian?
Mauritanium.

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So but the, I think the the, I
think the Libs are back in power

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there now.
So who knows what's going to

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happen there.
But essentially it's a no

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uranium mining zone at the
moment.

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So it's a bit of a counter
cyclical play to purchase stuff

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in there.
I think God, I think the I think

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the main one there, I'm not
sure, but I think Pat, the one

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that paladins got in Queensland.
I memory someone told me they

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paid 1.2 billion for that back
in the day.

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I hope.
It was sense 1.2 billion so.

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It wasn't unfortunately.
And then Paladin unbecame

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Paladin you'd say so all right,
what they've got.

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So this they did a pay for this
Westmoreland one in Queensland.

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They did a pay a back in 2016
and I think that add CapEx of US

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300, 10 million or something.
So I think that all has to be

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redone.
They, they did upgrade the

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resource not long ago.
So it's actually it's the

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indicator resource is people
like 50,000,000 lbs at 770 PPM

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then got 17,000,000 of pounds
inferred as well.

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But it's a it's an open pit.
So it's not an ISR, it's

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actually a open pit operation.
So it's but why there's mining

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lease applications submitted,
it's obviously the moratorium on

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uranium mining there.
So it's not something in the

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bloody near future anyway.
It's it's a £4 million proposed

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production capacity there for a
2,000,000 tonne plant.

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Then the stuff in New Mexico
they've also got.

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So that's this Church Rocks.
That's that's a nice one.

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So that's £50 million at point O
8%.

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So that's 800 PPM.
So it's sort of similar to what

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honeymoon wells got that's at
sort of the final permitting

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stages by the sounds they got
like a restoration permit to get

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past, but the actual uranium
mine and processing permit has

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been given to them.
So essentially the the there's

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not much of a link with what
though, because boss picked up

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the exploration ground earlier
this week.

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They've got like that earning
process for to get up to 80%,

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then they can pay 60 million for
to get to 90%.

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But that's I think that's more
near Ranger.

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This the one in Westmoreland
crosses over to NT that looks

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pretty unexplored, but it's sort
of in a in a different spot to

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what they picked up earlier in
the week.

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But then I guess the stuff in
New Mexico is right in and

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around on course assets in New
Mexico.

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So if there is a potential
future where Boss does something

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with Encore, like we know
they're only ain't got that.

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They've got a minor equity
interest at the moment, but it's

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all at the project level with
Alta Mesa.

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But you know, as we said,
Encore's under a bit of

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financial stress at the moment
with the money they owe BOSS and

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operations not performing in the
management change.

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So I'll just be interested to
see if anything comes about

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there.
So it looks like, you know, sort

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of chipping away at these
things, putting them haven't

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actually taken anything over
yet, but chipping away at these

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companies and potential projects
that sort of might be changing

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the narrative a bit is not just
a producer.

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There could be some cumulative
growth pounds there that could

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start coming into the story.
So we'll wait and see what

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bloody happens there.
I did that hoops quicker last

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time.
Way quicker.

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That's a fascinating,
fascinating part of the world

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there.
As we as we said just before New

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Mexico, people know from from
Breaking Bad in the area and

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what Mesa the mill that's the
energy fuels one in the place

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called Moab, which is where the
first uranium was discovered in

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the States and the Los Alamos
laboratory where were the

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smartest physicists in the world
all went to work on the

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Manhattan Project.
So a long and and super, super

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interesting history in that part
of the world, Maddie.

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Oh, just yeah, I was just a what
was his name?

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What was the Mexican's name in
breaking bag to Hector

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Salamanca?
Yeah, he's from Albuquerque.

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And the, well, the first guy,
oh, forget his, forget his name,

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the loose one that just used to
bloody smash it with a knife and

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hook it in with.
Anyway, we're off.

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Track in in Season 1 I remember
that's one of the few shows I've

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watched twice.
Actually it's.

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A very, very addictive you.
Don't even watch TV mate, you

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just listen to podcasts.
Mate this was over like at least

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a year period.
It took me a while.

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Righto Trav, is Kobride Panama
coming back?

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I am very curious about the
answer to that question, Maddie.

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I think, I think there's a,
yeah, big interesting question

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to be posed about whether Cobra
Panem is coming back in the near

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future.
And also like, does that mean

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that first quantum is, is is
undervalued right now?

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Because yeah, before I start, I
think the answer to, to both of

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the above could
probabilistically be yes.

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But this is this is just my view
based on kind of, you know,

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weighing up my view of the
probabilities, but on, on the

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public information.
But I might be wrong too, right.

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So just I'll take you on the
journey that I've been on to to

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try and articulate why why I
think this way and I'll flag

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this is just a bit of a prelude.
Like I'm not going to be

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exhausted here.
In fact, I've got more work to

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do, but this is just kind of
where my thinking's at right

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now.
Firstly, I want to show you the

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historic just price to NAV
trading multiple of first

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quantum versus it's pureplay
copper pier.

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So, you know, think the likes of
on this chart, I've got sand

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fire, Antofagasta, Ivanhoe,
Freeport.

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And also in the blue there at
the bottom, you can see that is

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the rolling price to NAV ratio
of first quantum.

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And this is simply just pulled
from cap IQ consensus rolling

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Pnav.
This quantum's Pnav.

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You can see it just falls off a
Cliff around October 2023.

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And that's when shit just hit
the fan in in relation to its

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Cobra Panama asset.
But we, we kind of, we've

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explored what's happened there
in the past, but the government

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deemed it unconstitutional after
a bunch of, you know,

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environmental pushback.
And, and when the P rolling P

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NAV falls off a chart, that's
because it's share price fell

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off a chart.
And, and then since then it

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can't, it's trended towards
where it is today, which is

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about 0.84 times NAV.
But before it fell off the

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Cliff, it was, it's historic,
historically basically just

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trended along one times NAV.
And if that was a whole story,

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it wouldn't be that interesting
to me.

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Well, but what this chart isn't
capturing is the fact that the

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the research analysts who are
covering first quantum, they've

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all become they've all begun
discounting the evaluation of

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Cobra Panama.
So, so they aren't they aren't

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keeping the same NAV in the
denominator of that equation.

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In fact, they've generally been
risking it by 50%.

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And I'll show you what I mean,
flash it up.

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Now here's the RBC valuation,
for example, the the the NAV per

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share that they derive for when
they're valuing first quantum

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is, is in Canadian dollars
$19.00 per share.

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But to get to that, they've
risked the cash flows from the,

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you know, the key Cobra Panama
asset by 50%.

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If those cash flows were
unrisked, IE 100% attributable

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to 1st quantum, it would be $30
per share.

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00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,280
And that's a massive, a massive
difference.

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Probably a lot.
The the, the consensus

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00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,960
calculation for cap IQ though,
it's what it's pulling is the

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that $19.00 per share number,
not the $30 per share number.

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00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,320
So it's taking the risk NAV into
equation, not the UN risked NAV

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for an asset that is it's
effectively like, you know,

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developed.
It just needs the, the political

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certainty.
Now look at city exact same

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thing.
They're valuing Cobra Panama at

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50% of its NPV due to the
uncertainty Scotiabank double

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00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,560
punishing Cobra Panama
valuation.

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00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:32,160
The NAV per share of the company
that they they derive is 1631

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00:10:32,560 --> 00:10:36,960
based on Cobra Panama scenario
that is risk 70% and has a 4% by

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00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,040
discount rate than other assets
and assumes 20% of the mine is

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00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,400
ceded to Panama.
So you can't you can't get the

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00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,200
picture here.
The, the, the consensus P NAV

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00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,320
for first quantum is low already
like point .84 now, but that's

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00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:54,480
also using a, an, an A a risk
NAV that that you know, is, is

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punitive to, to cobra Panama as
a real economic potential.

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00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,440
So it's kind of up to you to, to
come to a conclusion about how

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00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,920
much that economic potential is
actually going to be flowing to

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00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:07,040
1st quantum as, as things come
towards hopefully a bit of a

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conclusion.
And, and this is interesting

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00:11:09,680 --> 00:11:12,360
because we're likely to get, I
think we could be likely to get

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00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,760
some sort of agreement or at
least some, some sort of, you

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00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:19,400
know, more certainty or clarity
around what is going to happen

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00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,760
in relation to Cobra Panama in
the next 12 months.

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00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,640
If the outcome's positive or at
least provides the certainty and

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00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:29,200
clarity required, like first
Quantum could could return to

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its historic price to have
multiple of, of, of one times.

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00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:33,760
The way I'm thinking about it is
this.

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If you mathematically just
assume that first Quantum other

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00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,200
assets, so everything other than
COBRA Panama should be valued at

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00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:47,400
its historic ratio of one times
NAV, then then based on first

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00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,680
Quantum's current share price of
Canadian 1778 per share today.

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00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,840
If you if you put that into the
equation, assume the rest is one

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times they have back out.
What is the market assuming your

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00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:03,120
your P NAV attributable to COBRA
Panama yesterday for within

223
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,680
first Quantum evaluation.
When you do that math, you get

224
00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:10,160
somewhere in the vicinity of you
know point 0.4 to 0.6 times NAV.

225
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,360
So, you know, 40 to 60% of the,
of the cash flows of the

226
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,600
economic potential of COBRA
Panama that under the status quo

227
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,040
would have gone to 1st quantum
are kind of being attributed to,

228
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,480
to 1st quantum today.
And what is that like?

229
00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:28,920
What does that mean?
It, it means that the, the, the

230
00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,040
market is not willing to give it
any, any any more than it than

231
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,240
that because of the, the
uncertainty associated with it,

232
00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,200
the potential that they're going
to have to see some of it and

233
00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,000
all those sort of factors.
So I think that what investors

234
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,840
should be doing and probably are
doing is like thinking is that,

235
00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,520
is that a reasonable, is that a
reasonable discount or is it

236
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,040
unreasonable?
And I, I, I come to the

237
00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:50,480
intuition, well, my, my, my
belief is that that's more

238
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,080
punitive than, than it should
be.

239
00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,520
This is a phenomenal asset.
And, and when I kind of look at

240
00:12:55,520 --> 00:13:00,040
the, the, the geopolitical
dynamics in, in Panama, I also

241
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:03,440
think it's more likely than not
that you'll have, you know,

242
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,600
some, some, some clarity around
the situation and hopefully an

243
00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,160
agreement with the government in
the near future.

244
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,280
Too, do you think because it's
signed effectively, there's a,

245
00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,440
they're saying that they could
potentially lose 40 to 60% of

246
00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:17,400
the project, but is that, has
there been any numbers put

247
00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:19,760
around what they think they
might have to say to the

248
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,160
government or not?
I, I, no, I think, and I think

249
00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:26,920
the way that this, like PEP
unfolds is there's an

250
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,400
arbitration process and there's
hearing dates already for an

251
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,960
arbitration process.
And Panama's not want to go

252
00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,800
going to, not going to want to
go through the whole, the length

253
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,520
of that arbitration process.
The, the, the ways that

254
00:13:39,680 --> 00:13:42,920
countries do get punished by
international arbitration

255
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:44,800
process is something we should
cover in future podcasts.

256
00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,240
But, but they're actually like
very severe things that are

257
00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,560
imposed upon a country when it
goes through international

258
00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:52,840
arbitration, including like
restrictions around, you know,

259
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:54,880
the World Bank and funding rates
and all that sort of stuff.

260
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,920
So you don't want to go through
all of that.

261
00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,440
And so you come to a settlement
and a settlement like, I'd find

262
00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,880
it pretty unrealistic that that
that first quantum would have to

263
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,600
see, I don't know, half of its
asset.

264
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,400
I think like 15, twenty, 25%,
like could be a settlement

265
00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,400
ground.
But so, you know, and the market

266
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:18,040
just wants certainty as well.
So, yeah, I, and I think if you

267
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:23,040
just look at Panama, like where,
where it's at, when when she hit

268
00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:25,080
the fan, it was a different
government in place.

269
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:29,400
So there was a big kind of
campaign in the lead up to, to

270
00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,640
an election which which sort of,
you know, culminated in, in, in

271
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:35,040
a lot of protests around this
asset.

272
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,000
You remember, it's kind of
fittingly Leonardo, Leonardo

273
00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,920
DiCaprio.
He he he protested the the the

274
00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,240
cobra Panama like for some.
Now he's on the Australian

275
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,480
bauxite protests.
How weird like like.

276
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,000
The wolf.
The wolf's not happy.

277
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:59,440
Yeah, Leo.
There the the company didn't it

278
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,640
it, it didn't, I think it admits
this as well, you know, in

279
00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:07,600
hindsight, do the right things
to manage its social engagement

280
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:09,720
with the community.
They didn't take the the front

281
00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,000
foot of that.
And by the time they kind of

282
00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,600
realized, you know, it was too
late.

283
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,680
They didn't under score how
important what they were doing

284
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,560
was for the local community as
well as the broader world, you

285
00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,360
know, and it got away from them
before they knew it.

286
00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:28,400
Yeah, undoubtedly there were
plenty of, you know, plenty of

287
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:30,760
the Panamanian public on the on
the side of the the

288
00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:35,040
environmentalists and but as of
May 2024, change of government

289
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,520
elections or Jose Rahul Molino
elected as a new president.

290
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,240
And so the government's changed.
Plus, the geopolitical layup has

291
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,800
has evolved massively since
since Trump was elected to in

292
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:52,000
late 2024, Trump expressed his
intentions to take back the

293
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,160
Panama Canal from the control of
the Chinese following a pressure

294
00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:58,200
from the United States Black
Rock LED consortium that

295
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:02,120
acquired control in key ports
near Panama Canal.

296
00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:03,840
So this just last week this deal
popped up.

297
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:09,400
It was AUS $19 billion deal
where yeah, this consortium

298
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,320
acquired a bunch of port assets,
including a few a few near

299
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,800
Panama.
All all of the geopolitical

300
00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:18,200
football I felt was just sort of
mounting pressure for the for

301
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:22,000
the new president of of Panama.
And maybe that deal was a a

302
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,880
little bit of relief, but I
think the country still needs a

303
00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,320
win here.
And their local trade partners

304
00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,320
are clearly, you know, getting a
bit more spicy and fierce and

305
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,920
Cobra Panama, it is a
significant asset in the context

306
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,600
of the country, in the context
of the, the government revenue

307
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:40,520
generation, not at all compared
to the canal itself, Like that's

308
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,360
just a phenomenal revenue
generator.

309
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,080
But it is, it is a significant
asset.

310
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,680
And when you read between the
lines of the, the commentary

311
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,920
that comes out of both like
first Quantum and, and Franco

312
00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,880
Nevada, listen to their, you
know, recent quarterly or

313
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,440
analyst calls or, or
presentations, they always get

314
00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,400
asked about this because in, in,
in Franco Nevada's case, like

315
00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,400
they've got a giant stream on
this asset too.

316
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:06,319
It sounds, it sounds like, like
from just reading between the

317
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:08,520
lines of some of their comments,
it sounds like the, the

318
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,920
government could even be sort of
like pretty supportive of

319
00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,040
getting a deal done.
But there's a, there's a, a

320
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,640
process that's got to be done to
win the public over on that.

321
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:20,160
This is a, a public campaign to
want the, the, the, the will of

322
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,560
the, the Panamanians to
convincingly want this to be

323
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,520
back in, in production as well.
So, you know, that's a good

324
00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,400
starting point to be, and to get
to a, an outcome here.

325
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,960
If the, it's, if the population
can be won over, then that's it.

326
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,560
You know, that'll be, that'll be
fantastic.

327
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,920
So there's a bunch of things
that I haven't discussed or even

328
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,720
covered in this brief, brief
overview, but they, they're

329
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,200
important and I want to do some
more work.

330
00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,320
And those are things like that
arbitration process, what the

331
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,800
economic split could, could
realistically be like that.

332
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:49,800
What downside case is there if
it, if more delays come?

333
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:53,760
And also first Quantum's balance
sheet is, is it is stretched

334
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,080
they're doing a sell down of
their, of a, of a minority

335
00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,680
interest in, in their Zambian
copper mines.

336
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,600
That'll help a bit.
But there's, yeah, there's like

337
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,680
they've got to be able to manage
their their balance sheet along

338
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:06,280
the way too.
How do you think that Franco

339
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:13,400
Nevada stream will work if the
government take more of a stake

340
00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,400
of the project and I assume the
same X amount of money still has

341
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:18,880
to go to Franco Nevada is that?
Franco's unaffected.

342
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,120
Yeah, yeah.
But but will that really affect

343
00:18:22,120 --> 00:18:24,080
First Quantum?
They'll have to pay more royalty

344
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,400
per project ownership.
Or so both?

345
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:33,280
Both both Franco and and 1st
Quantum have arbitration

346
00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,360
hearings.
They're like six months apart.

347
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,720
But first, First Quantum's claim
is, is, is it will be like the

348
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,640
settlement that might happen
with First Quantum could be like

349
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:44,600
an an equity split at the
project level with the

350
00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:48,000
government.
But the stream that Franco have

351
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,080
is at the asset level.
So they'll they'll won't be

352
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,640
affected by any kind of.
So the government will have to

353
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:54,600
pay them.
The the stream will be stay the

354
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:55,680
same.
Yeah, yeah.

355
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:59,240
And there might be some, some,
yeah arbitration settlement

356
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,720
where where they're going to pay
out because of the business

357
00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,880
interruption that was caused.
If it's all have it gotten?

358
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,000
I don't know how that works.
What?

359
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,120
What's the ownership project
ownership at the moment?

360
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:10,000
What does the government know?
Any.

361
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,040
First Quantum has 90%, create a
resource group has 10%.

362
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,520
Yeah, yeah.
Which is the government?

363
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:20,600
No, no, no.
So the government hasn't got any

364
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:22,480
correct.
OK, but they might do.

365
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,960
Yeah, there is an arrangement
with the government that like

366
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,520
there was a a royalty that was
renegotiated with the government

367
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,720
and that was very favourable to
1st Quantum beforehand.

368
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,720
But the renegotiation saw a a
minimum, I think it was a

369
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,880
minimum 375,000,000 that would
go towards the the government

370
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,240
every single year as a a rigid
kind of outcome, which is a

371
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,480
positive.
Yeah, yeah.

372
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:44,880
Yeah.
To under score the importance

373
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,120
point that you said Trav, 5% of
the GDP of the country was from

374
00:19:49,120 --> 00:19:51,680
this mine.
So you know between 30 and

375
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,040
40,000 people employed directly
and indirectly.

376
00:19:54,360 --> 00:19:56,480
It's enormous.
Very good, very good.

377
00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,080
All that bloody share price
talk. 17 bucks a share,

378
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,360
17,000,000 pounds 1717.
I'm just bloody.

379
00:20:02,360 --> 00:20:05,320
Can't get 7-8 million drill
metres out of the ad boys.

380
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:09,440
17,000,000 The Diamond.
Drill bloody count that is

381
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,520
growing by the day for Swick
17,000,000.

382
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,720
Please let us know when you hit
18. 17 millions.

383
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,520
Not could.
Couldn't be many more to go.

384
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,240
How many hours do you reckon
would take to get 17,000,000

385
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,080
underground drill meters
accomplished?

386
00:20:24,120 --> 00:20:27,400
Quicker than anyone else the
record Breakers, especially

387
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,080
those bloody deep X rigs that
are five times more powerful

388
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:36,000
that just drill 2000 plus meters
plus or say which is you can

389
00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,080
prove resources all the way to
the centre of the earth.

390
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,880
Who cares if you can't mind it,
it looks good on an ASX

391
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,840
announcement.
Get them punching 2000 plus

392
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,920
meters so.
I'm so impressed at at

393
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,720
underground drilling.
That can do that mate.

394
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,360
It just.
I would like everything else.

395
00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:55,040
I don't know who else can.
So it's just you think diamond

396
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,520
drilling underground, you think
Swick.

397
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,760
It's very easy anyway.
Swick, Oh speaking it is some

398
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,000
potential for some 2000 meter
holes out here.

399
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,520
JD Soulgold, the old Casa Bell
mine.

400
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:11,760
Yeah, Casa Bell, they could
definitely use a A2 kilometer

401
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,520
drill mate because some of the
holes they've done in their time

402
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,960
are pretty punchy.
I think, I think the company

403
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,560
would be pretty familiar to most
listeners, but the TSE and LSE

404
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,920
listed, it's a also
headquartered sort of in in

405
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,000
Australia.
So they've got sort of strong

406
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,680
Aussie roots in the business
management is here and

407
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:34,720
everything and they're talking
about an ASASX listing at the

408
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,920
moment, which we'll get to.
But it was, it was revealed

409
00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:42,720
overnight that Jiangxi Copper
lifted their interest to 12%.

410
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,960
And this was done with the
support of Soulgold.

411
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:49,360
So this is like another twist in
a, in a really, really

412
00:21:49,360 --> 00:21:51,920
interesting corporate history of
the company.

413
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:57,400
And people have speculated for a
long time now the best part of a

414
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:01,000
decade who is going to actually
end up being the owner and who

415
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:05,360
is going to take this thing from
being a top quality asset into a

416
00:22:05,360 --> 00:22:08,640
mine.
And maybe we are maybe we're one

417
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,760
step closer to that truth.
The stock closed up 20% on the

418
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,600
announcement and at one point
they were up 34%.

419
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,800
So it was a a big bit of news
for the.

420
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,120
Company very interesting mate, I
there's a lot of history here.

421
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,360
There is a lot of history and it
is very, very interesting

422
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:30,320
history as well, exploration,
corporate sort of battles and

423
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,280
everything kind of in between.
But I'll run through the most

424
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,520
important details.
So the company sole Gold gets

425
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,480
the concessions from a group
called Cornerstone Capital

426
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,960
Resources back in 2012, 2014
they have their discovery hole

427
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:48,200
in a 5 hole program.
One of the hits was about 1300

428
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:54,160
meters at .6% copper and a bit
over .5g per tonne gold.

429
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,320
So you can see in that picture
there they put a nice big

430
00:22:57,360 --> 00:23:00,680
landmark for the Canadians so
they can understand the the

431
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:05,040
scale of the the project.
This is big copper porphyry

432
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,000
stuff in the Ecuadorian Andy's
we're talking about here.

433
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:13,480
I'll jump forward from there to
2022 and this was a year that

434
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:16,880
had everything for the company.
Early in the year they come out

435
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:22,080
with the PFS, we're talking
about $2.9 billion US MPV19

436
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,880
percent IRR with a big $2.7
billion pre production capital

437
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,520
cost to build this block cave
operation.

438
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,400
So we know there's not too many
of them going around.

439
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:37,000
They're pretty complex beasts to
get into production about.

440
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,640
In this period, the company is
capped at around a billion plus

441
00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,920
Aussie dollars.
And if you're, if you were to

442
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:47,040
look now, you're seeing about a
$450 million market cap.

443
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,880
So not all has been well since
that point in time.

444
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,200
And even in that year, things
were sort of getting pretty

445
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,600
shaky.
People weren't happy with how

446
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,440
long the PFS was taking.
There was this invoicing

447
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,400
scandal, about 6 or $7,000,000
got got siphoned off.

448
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:07,760
You had ACFO that lasted six
weeks in the job and then there

449
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,120
was a sort of failed capital
raise, so she departed.

450
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,600
You had this ongoing dispute
with Cornerstone, the group that

451
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:20,920
had sold the asset to sell gold
and for for all these kind of

452
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,320
reasons and some more the the
stock starts to peel off

453
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,440
throughout the year 22 to where
we are today.

454
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:30,160
They did manage to consolidate
the ownership in the asset.

455
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,200
That was an ongoing dispute back
end of 2022.

456
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,520
They they do a deal with
Cornerstone.

457
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,680
They sort of simplify the
ownership structure, but

458
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:45,000
Cornerstone still held at that
point about 7% of the equity in

459
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,320
Salgold.
Now with the takeover, this just

460
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,760
becomes sort of own shares as
they call them that Salgold

461
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,880
holds in itself.
And they are the exact shares

462
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,920
that Jiangxi have bought
overnight to bump up their

463
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,960
interest to 12%.
Yeah, right.

464
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,960
So it's like a bloody an unbuy
back an unbuy.

465
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,480
Back a a buyback that is the.
Financial term.

466
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:10,280
Where you don't cancel the
shares.

467
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,600
That's, that's exactly what they
call it Maddie to, to round out

468
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:19,040
on the, the corporate details.
There was a lot happening on

469
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,040
this front because they were a
takeover target.

470
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:22,320
You know, everyone wants
copyright.

471
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,480
So BHB and Newcrest, who are 13
1/2 percent shareholders each.

472
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,800
But then at the end of that year
22, you get the Cisco royalties

473
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,800
come in, they give $50 million
to the company in exchange for

474
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,760
0.6% NSR.
So they're getting a royalty and

475
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,520
the major shareholders are
super, super, super pissed off.

476
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:43,840
Like you said when we recorded
it the first time.

477
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,200
Maddie Sandeep this way it's
just speon.

478
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:48,960
It was, it was in the papers
every day.

479
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,960
Everyone knew about it.
Royalties stay on the asset.

480
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,880
They are not good for the
company that wants to take them

481
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,680
out in in the long run.
Oh and especially something that

482
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,400
bloody big .6% forever.
And it's like why if they were a

483
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,760
billion dollars, why they just
didn't do a 60 mil capital

484
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,160
raise?
Yeah, it's bloody.

485
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,800
It was out there.
It's what you do when you.

486
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:09,480
I don't want to get acquired,
Maddie.

487
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,080
Yeah.
That that's the poison pill A.

488
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,720
100%, I think you know that
those actions just best

489
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,160
encapsulate the attitude the
company had towards progressing

490
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:24,360
the project hugely at odds with
the way BHB and the way Newmont

491
00:26:24,360 --> 00:26:27,120
wanted to go about things.
And we could talk way more about

492
00:26:27,120 --> 00:26:28,240
all the boardroom action there
was.

493
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:29,800
There was heaps of it.
You had lots of management

494
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:34,320
changes throughout the year, but
a lot of that sort of old

495
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,080
history now.
So we'll we'll leave it there.

496
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:38,520
There was a lot happening on the
environmental and the political

497
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,640
front in Ecuador, which is worth
mentioning.

498
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,240
This created a lot of
uncertainty about whether they'd

499
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,080
get the permits and all all
those sorts of things which

500
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:51,080
created more, you know, negative
headwinds for the stock.

501
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,400
But you you could sort of come
through to 2024 last year they

502
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,360
release an updated PFS.
They they optimize it and the

503
00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:01,960
pre production capital comes
down substantially.

504
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:03,280
The economics look a little bit
better.

505
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,320
They get an exploitation permit.
That's not the final mining

506
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:08,800
permit.
They can't construct us yet.

507
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,280
They can do some early works,
but just another another sort of

508
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,240
check of the box.
It's a good thing.

509
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,480
But then halfway through the
year they announced this big

510
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,920
streaming deal with the the
giants in the space, Franco

511
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:25,680
Nevada, as well as a Cisco.
Actually they're giving US $750

512
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,360
million.
So 100 bucks up front that's

513
00:27:28,360 --> 00:27:33,360
spread over three payments and
650 is for construction when

514
00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:35,640
that happens.
So the company doesn't get their

515
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,320
hands on the cash just yet, but
once they check those boxes,

516
00:27:39,360 --> 00:27:44,920
they'll be able to fund a bit
over I think 1/3 of the the 1.55

517
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,800
billion pre production capital.
So yeah, this one and the

518
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,840
royalty before has A to an
extent a buyback that you can do

519
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,400
within a certain period of time,
but they are sort of written in

520
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,240
stone and and very hard to to
turn around in large.

521
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,720
Then there was some some stuff
we should have been paying

522
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,520
attention to, like just just
last week or the week.

523
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,920
Before like we were asleep at
the wheel last week when some

524
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,280
big changes happened at the
company.

525
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:20,240
So incomes a new CEO and incomes
a new chair, this new CEO wasn't

526
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,680
a stranger to the company, had
been a non exec director since

527
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:26,400
2022.
Before that he's a a long time

528
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,400
investment banker in the metals
and mining space, had also

529
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,040
worked at Matt Copper.
And he gives this kind of

530
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,520
standard CEO comments in the
spiel in the announcement, talks

531
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,520
about looking at an ASX listing
and maximizing shareholder

532
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:40,800
value.
And you sort of read it at a

533
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:42,880
time you're like, yeah, everyone
kind of says that.

534
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,960
Let's see if they sort of put it
into action with the company.

535
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,000
You've got the new chair as
well.

536
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:53,680
This is a former Glencore head
of strategy and you see those

537
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,600
those two gentlemen coming in,
you see their track record,

538
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,280
their experience and what
they're all about.

539
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,520
And I don't think immediately
that these are two folks that

540
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:08,320
want to develop a block cave
operation in the Andes in South

541
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,720
America.
This is a super, super complex

542
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,920
operation and these guys seem
more than capable of what

543
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,040
they're doing, but it does
actually really speak to a

544
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,840
change in mindset in my view.
And they talk about restating,

545
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:23,720
resetting the strategy.
They're forming this Explore Co,

546
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,560
which is going to have all the
other tenements outside of

547
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,560
Casket Bell put into it.
Some are more developed than

548
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,360
others, but they're all got this
focus of realizing shareholder

549
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,640
value now.
That's that's the explore Co

550
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,000
setting the stage for the spin
out of the ultimate acquisition.

551
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:40,400
You put a put a bow on the rest,
mate.

552
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:44,040
Yeah, but that's exactly those
are guys there to do it to you

553
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,360
or not to not to build a mind.
Yeah, it's, it's, it's all the

554
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,680
little sort of signs.
So if you look at the the cap

555
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,560
table, what the biggest
shareholders are in their

556
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,440
holdings before this, this
screenshot of shows before the

557
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,800
Jiangxi announcement, but you've
got BHB now at 10%, you've got

558
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:05,000
Newmont at 10% and you've got
Jiangxi at 12%.

559
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,200
So they're, they're the big
holders.

560
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,400
You've got three different
companies holding 10% plus

561
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:14,880
Jiangxi came in and paid a 45%
premium to scoop up that block

562
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,440
of owned shares.
So they're clearly pretty keen

563
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,840
to do something.
They only paid US 18,000,000 for

564
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,520
that stock.
But again, you're saying just,

565
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,280
you know, this is just one week
into the job for that new

566
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,960
leadership team and they're
talking about reshaping the

567
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,320
investment proposition.
It's, you know, if you're of the

568
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,520
persuasion that a deal to be
done here is the best outcome as

569
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,240
a shareholder, they are saying
all the right things to you.

570
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:43,040
And it's, it's a very
interesting position.

571
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,280
I reckon now that the company
sort of sees itself in because

572
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,000
you've got Newmont who've done a
big round of divestments of all

573
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,560
their non core assets.
You've got BHB that last year

574
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,520
did the deal with Philo and
perhaps are looking at other

575
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:59,760
things and you've got the other
big shareholders creeping their

576
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,640
way higher.
So whether the TSX listing is a

577
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:07,000
bit of a blocker for a Chinese
entity remains to be seen.

578
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:11,040
You've got ADFS that should come
out in the the not too distant

579
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,720
future.
So a bit more solid numbers to

580
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,760
be wrapped around the project.
But I think you've got a

581
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,040
management team in there now
that's happy to deal.

582
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,480
And I'm I'm pretty intrigued to
see where the, where the company

583
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,880
and where the stock kind of goes
from here.

584
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,720
So if you got those three big
holders like it looks like I

585
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:34,960
couldn't say BHP or Newmont
doing a Chinese JV, that'd be a

586
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,680
bit out there, wouldn't it?
Or is it well they?

587
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,840
They rely heavily on China for a
lot of their business.

588
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,200
What would they JV?
With them at a project level, do

589
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,960
you think, in Ecuador?
Jeez.

590
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,280
Nothing's nothing's impossible,
yeah.

591
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,040
So obviously looking at Jen, she
looks the favorite for it.

592
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,000
JD.
Does look like they are the ones

593
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,480
most enthusiastic and most keen
to do a deal certainly I reckon.

594
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,600
Very interesting register.
It is yeah.

595
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,120
And I, I think I'm pretty sure
like Cornerstone was trying to

596
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,680
sell themselves or sell their
stake before kind of sold it all

597
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,160
became sold golds.
And, and I do remember there was

598
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,920
like some inability for, for the
Chinese to, to buy it back then

599
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,200
because that was they, they were
I actually think a Canadian

600
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,040
domicile country and already had
the TSX listing or was the

601
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,960
dominant listing and.
Yeah, they were Canadian, that's

602
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,040
right.
Yeah, yeah.

603
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,720
Anyway, my read through of that
was that you crested BHP kind of

604
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,760
went there to do that deal.
So it kind of speaks to me.

605
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,520
Like to your point, Maddie, this
is, this is on a, on a, there's

606
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,560
a ribbon on this for Jiangxi.
Yeah, yeah.

607
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,800
BHP had been there a long time
already, even even by that point

608
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,080
they'd been, you know, they
would have been sniffing around

609
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,600
and holding that stake for for a
while.

610
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,040
And yeah, maybe they've made
their mind up already.

611
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,440
Well if they wanted the royalty
to scare everyone off, it sure

612
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,320
did because it's been as you
said, it's depressed and PHP or

613
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,320
Newmont haven't done anything
with it so.

614
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:08,280
Yeah, I mean, you can't say the
you can't say portions of the

615
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,920
board weren't weren't interested
in getting the stock up, but

616
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,840
they were massive shareholders,
right.

617
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,600
The former CEO stepped down in
21.

618
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,400
There's a lot of drama around
that, but you know, I owned a a

619
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,920
big slab of stock, so.
Yeah, Speaking of Guinea, random

620
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:29,520
links to sorry Ecuador, random
links to Ecuador was we know

621
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,040
Gina's love for Ecuador.
Yep.

622
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,480
Do I remember?
Roski as.

623
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:39,160
Well, the ex CEO of this that
departed that did the royalty

624
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:43,840
deal that Daryl Kazuba, he ended
up at Arafura really is that

625
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:45,280
right?
I don't know.

626
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:46,520
I think so.
It could be right.

627
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,600
Yeah, I didn't know that.
Who Jane is a major shareholder

628
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,520
of.
I think that's right.

629
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:56,720
That is a random link that
doesn't link anymore really,

630
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,040
because you know, Jane.
Jane likes Ecuador.

631
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,560
So there you go.
Another non exec so.

632
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:10,080
So he was appointed a non exec
director before he even became

633
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,080
CEO.
I think of of Sogold.

634
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,360
There we go.
Oh, this is who knows something.

635
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:19,880
There's something there.
Speaking of something, history.

636
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,560
I've gone down a random bloody,
bloody hypothesis here on the

637
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,320
back of exploration results, but
this is just lightning.

638
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,920
This is what we do.
Our band bloody ripped today

639
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:34,159
again.
That's a God dollar six that is

640
00:34:34,159 --> 00:34:40,440
just being bloody flying that
thing they've hit they're well,

641
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,280
they're climbing a bit of a
greenfields discovery you'd say

642
00:34:44,639 --> 00:34:49,800
on their up the up the strike
from Riverina 22.7 metres at 5g

643
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,880
and 10.9 at 6.4g.
So this like we always talk

644
00:34:53,880 --> 00:35:00,280
about the organic potential that
gets touted for their Davyhurst

645
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,720
tenements and this sort of
probably the longest section

646
00:35:04,720 --> 00:35:06,400
shows it.
Like you look at the Riverina

647
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:10,280
mine and the British line and
then they've hit this stuff at

648
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,120
little gem, they call it they
got sun riser up there.

649
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,760
So 7 odd kilometers of of
strike, they're going to test

650
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,880
and hence the money they're
putting into exploration to, you

651
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:25,200
know, organically grow that
project and like, but you look

652
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:28,720
at the the performance and new
ad comments previously travel,

653
00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:30,240
like, you know, the scripts like
value.

654
00:35:30,240 --> 00:35:33,360
They are they going to use it?
Like are they going to do a deal

655
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,640
and all they're just going to
organically grow And you just

656
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:39,440
think of right, if they're going
to do a deal, what would what

657
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,560
deal would they do to sort of
feed the existing

658
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,560
infrastructure?
They've gotten like the but I

659
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:47,720
don't even know if they do this
one because it's too bloody.

660
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,720
The the price on this.
Like the first one that came to

661
00:35:50,720 --> 00:35:54,200
mind would have been that
gorilla gold the the old

662
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,400
labyrinth, because they got the
stuff down the road from they're

663
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,200
at Menzies, the common Vale
stuff they got so that'd feed

664
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:02,920
into Riverina and the malware
stuff they've got is on the

665
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,520
western side of Riverina.
But like I just was shocked

666
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,560
yesterday when I looked at the
market cap, 240 mil fully

667
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,960
diluted gorilla cult.
I just good.

668
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,200
It's like the gold version of
encounter again.

669
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,160
It's just absolutely ripping.
So for the and I just couldn't

670
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:24,720
see yeah I'm still of the belief
I think or a band are probably

671
00:36:24,720 --> 00:36:28,360
going to stay organic and just
maximize the potential of the

672
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,520
drill bit at River Rainer and
I'm but then it just thinking on

673
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,720
the on the back of the Remelius
Spartan chatter obviously

674
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,000
reflected on that whole thing.
We had differing views of what

675
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,280
Remelius and Spartan the the
outcome would be and I'm

676
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:45,040
probably started bloody Lane and
your by a bit trapped because

677
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,480
I'm thinking God that why do
they're going to backfill 240

678
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:52,280
Miller market cap at gorilla is
Simon Lawson will be going from

679
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,520
non exact to bloody the MD,
which means maybe remelius and

680
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,640
Spartan is going to happen and
then you look at how much and

681
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:02,320
it.
Was given Simon lots of credit

682
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:03,560
mate.
It could, it could derate after

683
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:07,080
that, joking Simon.
He'll have to change his number

684
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:12,240
plates.
But the, the I was just looking

685
00:37:12,240 --> 00:37:14,760
at the share price performance
of the gold is today and like

686
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,840
everything is ripping other than
Ramilis.

687
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,680
Like it was, I think it was .7%
up when I looked.

688
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,680
And the look at this last six
months trade between Spartan and

689
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:28,960
Ramilis, they're pretty much
back close to par after that.

690
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:32,160
So I look, maybe that whole, as
you said, the magnet thing was

691
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:37,440
the thing that came out to not
say nothing's happening.

692
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,280
But it's like, yeah, there's a
gap here.

693
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,880
The if it's going to be in a
scheme of arrangement like

694
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:49,360
Remelius stock cheaper is more
chance of Spartan accepting,

695
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:54,760
voting in favour of that and
getting a lot more, a lot more

696
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,440
control of that.
Pro forma it'd be like 55

697
00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,080
Remelius, 45 Spartan at these
rates around about that whatever

698
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,040
the merger ratio is.
But it's a yeah, if it does

699
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:05,960
happen, it's going to be a
bloody big swing.

700
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,280
So yeah, maybe that maybe that
is going to happen so.

701
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,040
Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding.
Ding, yeah, for Spartan so, but

702
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,520
I'm thinking that's if both of
those things happen.

703
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,600
There you go.
Who who who knows?

704
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,400
We'll wait and we'll wait and
see.

705
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,880
Beautiful.
Oh God.

706
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,200
Well, I'm pretty sure that
recorded fuck.

707
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,480
Oh good, Bing is crusted.
It's all.

708
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:32,280
Right.
All right, let the kids pick up

709
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,800
sorted so I can actually edit
it.

710
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:38,200
Fucking hell, I've never talked
about the same thing so many

711
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,760
times.
Right, I fucking I'll talk about

712
00:38:40,760 --> 00:38:44,600
this as same everyday. 100 bucks
off Ausi MMM underground

713
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,360
operates tickets to link in the
show notes.

714
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,400
Thanks to our bloody great
partners at Mineral Mining

715
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:53,440
Services, MMS, grounded Sandy
ground sports CR insurance, K

716
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:59,000
drill WA water balls, swig
quattro at CBA hudao Money

717
00:38:59,000 --> 00:38:59,720
Miners.
Hudao Hudao.

718
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,720
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

719
00:39:02,720 --> 00:39:04,800
general nature only and does not
take into account the

720
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,400
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

721
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,440
person.
Before making any investment

722
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,520
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

723
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,640
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

724
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,840
financial situation and needs.