Has the market gone cold on miners?

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Right on buddy Waters.
It's a it's not a bloodbath

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everywhere but mate, is it?
Is it bloody risk off today JDI?

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Think it could be mate seems to
be the the feeling in the

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market.
We're going to chat a bit about

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it.
There's a few big moves and a

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few more more subtle ones.
But I think, I think we're we're

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going to talk about the, the
mood in the market.

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Mate, it was risk on when you
were in Darba, mate, the the

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punting was the best ever.
It was all gold.

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You know when like everything's
about gold exploration, she's

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risk on.
But when people are.

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Honed in on $5 million market
cap companies then.

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It's all go that all was, but
look, uranium down most things

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down near 10% overnight in the
US and that's flying through

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those X.
And anyway you're going to go,

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we're going bloody.
We've got a macro segment from

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JD and we've got a Uranium 1
from me.

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To very, very excited to listen
to that one.

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It's a huge move in Encore.
Oh no, but like and because I

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suppose that encore story is
headlined around, you know,

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these project restarts.
A lot of these aren't

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greenfields operation.
We're seeing them in every

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commodity, JD but don't do a
restart project and keep the

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shitty camp get grounded to sex
it up for you.

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But that is number one bloody
rule and a lot of these restart

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issues could be the fact that
the people want a better camp.

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It's true.
They're just so might just make

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the smart choice.
They'll work harder, you'll make

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more money and your share price
probably won't go down.

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So.
When I crack open one of these

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DF s s, you know, and they're
talking about a restart or maybe

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they call it an optimization or
what have you grounded.

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They're the words I'm looking
for.

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Oh, no.
And the words that follow that

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JD grounded that because they
it's built on trust and

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delivered with Sicilian
excellence by Paul Natali.

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Yeah.
So anyway, Encore Energy

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absolutely hammered last night
down 46%.

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I was actually just before I
went to bed watching the the

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open and I think they were down
18%, but then just continued

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through the night.
So yeah.

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And you can so I.
Listed up in North America for

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those.
Yeah, they're on, They're on.

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Can't find it?
And they're on the TSXV and the

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NASDAQ.
Yeah, so project in Texas.

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Oh yeah, that's they got a big
gun.

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They got a big gun on down 62%
in the past year.

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So now what has actually
happened, like there was the the

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production miss and the fact
that they had to essentially

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sell pounds they purchased to
fulfil contract obligations.

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But the last line of the actual
announcement let me.

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Was a kicker.
Oh my, I'll I did this every

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time user away now mobile view
I'm sorted.

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You say the last bit here, I'll
bring up the board of directors

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appointed Robert Willett, the
colour current Chief legal

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officer as acting CEO effective
immediately and the existing the

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previous CEO Paul Goranson just
says no longer serving as I say,

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all the board of directors, no
context, no nothing given and

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like from what you hear, Paul is
very well regarded in the US out

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of 30 years in the industry was
yeah, you look at yeah done a

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lot of ISR work.
So it was came across very

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negative to the market as you
see.

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So I'll think, yeah, I think
the, I think the share price

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decline is much more weighted
towards this than the actual

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production.
So possibly both whatever.

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So yeah, like because, you know,
they're appointing a, a lawyer

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to be the CEO of this ISR
company now.

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So it yeah, so it was sent
tremors across.

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But then, and I'll get into it
later, like, like, you know,

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next Gen. was down 10%.
Like everything was down

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significantly because you had a
bit of word coming out of the

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Trump office for a change
regarding tariffs, but we'll get

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into the impacts of that.
So for the Encore side

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specifically, it said, it said
for 20.

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So this is a lot of the Q4
results and then the full year

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results that they released in
tandem with announcing the

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change in management.
So it said they, they had sales

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totalling 720,000 lbs at an
average sales price of 81 bucks

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a pound.
But they used 580,000 lbs source

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from purchased uranium to, to
fulfil that.

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So because I actually acquired
825,000 lbs during last year.

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So they've, they've got £358,000
left in inventory.

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But it just shows the the
missing production and the I

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guess the struggles they're
having in the ramp up and

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considering they actually had
contracts in place to to fulfil

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so.
Yeah, that's when it really

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comes back to to bite you and
you see that in the strategy

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with a few of the other race
that players have.

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They're leaving themselves some
some breathing room for the

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potential misses and these sorts
of things.

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So you're not locked in
similarly to how we've spoken

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with people that have to hedge,
you know, to get the financing

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and these sorts of things.
When you you're obligated to

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make it and you can't make it,
maybe that hedge book becomes

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100% of your production as
opposed to 30%, whatever.

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Anything like that, you know,
can really swing around your

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numbers.
Yes, very much, very bloody much

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size.
So well I'll give a just, we've

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talked about them before because
Encore are the ones that Boss

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have done the JV with at the
project level for the Alta Mesa

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project in South South Texas.
So they're in they've it's a one

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and half £1,000,000 project per
annum that ramping up to that

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not there yet.
And they've got like 3 separate

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processing facilities there, 2
of race started, there's a third

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one scheduled.
And then they've they've also

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got development projects in
South Dakota, Wyoming, New

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Mexico.
So there's a, there's a bit

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going on, but they've just been
absolutely hammered so.

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So this Alta Massa project was
sort of slated to hit nameplate

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Route 26.
Yeah, Yeah.

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So it was it was it was destined
as a slower ramp up.

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But like, I think you could you
could just tell the fact that

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they've had to sell a lot of the
pounds they've purchased for

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inventory.
It just shows the ramp up is

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like and the considerable amount
of them just shows it's not

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really not really hitting the
mark.

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And look, you can I guess when
we're talking about US mining

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projects at the moment and
saying the market moves, you got

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to think right, how much is
influenced by the mining itself

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and how much is influenced by
big Trumpy because there was

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plenty of news out from him last
night as well.

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So because is essentially moving
forward with the 25% tariffs on

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Mexico and Canada slapped
another 10% tariff on China on

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top of the 10% that was already
there.

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And you got the 25% tariffs for
steel and aluminium imports

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kicking in in March 12.
And then also paused bloody

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military aid to Ukraine after
that.

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The what would you say, the Oval
Office cluster fuck?

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God how many good AI videos have
come out of that?

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The less said about that, the
better.

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Mate, Yeah.
So if we can then tie that into

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US uranium or even just North
American uranium and the effect

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that because as I said, uranium
just got absolutely hammered

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last night on the equity side.
And it's a look, it's been on a

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decline in the spot price, which
is it's just the the weirdest

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how you get your head around it.
Term prices, even term prices

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stayed flat even though there
was only apparently one term

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contract signed in February.
But the spot the term price

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hadn't moved.
Spot prices continue to go down

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since it's at about 20% below
the term.

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So that's obviously feeding the
equity sentiment.

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So we're.
Talking to mid 60s spot.

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Yes.
Yeah.

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So I guess right?
What's, what do these tariffs

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mean for a bloody if you're
looking to invest in a frigging

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US uranium producer, like I
think there's two sides and you

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don't know what balance, which
way it's going to bloody tilt

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the, the scales.
Because you could say that, OK,

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if it's all about right, if
you're not US, you're going to

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be tariffed.
So that would think, right.

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If you're buying AUS based
project, you're like, OK, there

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should be demand to buy US based
projects because you are going

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to have better conditions, not
tariffed to sell internally

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within the US and you will be a
preferred supplier of whatever

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product you're making.
Could that lead to increased

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investment in US bloody
operations or companies or

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whatever?
But then you got, OK, if those

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companies are, you know,
building a project or restarting

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a project and they're relying on
imports from other parts of the

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world for plant equipment,
bloody any other material, OK,

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Well, they're getting tariffs.
So that's going to probably what

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lift their CapEx and OpEx for
that.

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So that's a that's a negative.
You could have supply chain

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disruptions because of those
tariffs.

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Like we don't even know yet what
the trade retaliation is going

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to be from other countries
against the US.

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So there's just a lot of a lot
of uncertainty and it could go

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either way be a bloody positive
or negative for AUS company.

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So short summary, I don't know.
But not just.

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Do you know JD?
Not just you mate, there's a

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there's a lot of question Marks
and a lot of water to go under

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the bridge.
And I think the other one, we

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haven't talked about it yet.
The I think it was over the

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weekend we saw and in terms of
what's happening in Canada, we

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saw the Supreme Court of Canada
dismissing the Saskatchewan

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government's appeal against the
medic nation of Saskatchewan.

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So I guess assuming there that's
a lot the one of the traditional

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owner groups so that was
allowing them to proceed the

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medicination proceed with legal
action against the province over

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these are the words alleged
inadequate consultation

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regarding uranium exploration
permits issued to Next Gen. near

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Patterson Lake in 2021.
So this.

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This Rook 1.
Yeah, not Rook one.

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There's a lot because there's a
mutual benefit agreement with

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medicine and next Gen. for the
development of Rook one.

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They sound like they're separate
exploration permit permits does

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set a bit of a precedence going
forward and in giving a bit more

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power probably to the
traditional owners for this,

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these negotiations for other
projects that don't have these

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mutual agreements yet like
Paladin's PLS project for

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instance.
But didn't say Paladin really

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get hammered on the back of
this?

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There's still a bit of
uncertainty of what this

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actually means.
But anyway, if you put all that

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together and we look at the
actual financial state of Encore

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and whether they're thinking
right, is this bloody massive

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00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:08,360
drop in Encore share price
takeover target opportunity for

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00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,840
them or not?
Or what the investment sentiment

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00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,360
is like for those U.S.
companies, they've got their

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00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,520
market caps going from 1 billion
Canadian in November to about

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00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:23,640
368 Canadian as of last night.
So and they've only got US

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Piplow 40 million in cash in
cash equivalents in regards to

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the 200,000 lbs that they owe
Boss Energy that was loaned to

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them when BOSS did the 30%
investment into the Alta Mesa

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project.
That was actually that loan

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00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,720
agreement was amended on 21st of
February.

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00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,160
Then I'll bring up the SEC
filing here.

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00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:51,560
So based on the dates that said
February 26th, which is you know

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00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:57,400
last week they would would have
paid BOSS US 11.8 million cash.

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00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,320
So that 40 million US cash is
based on December 31st.

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00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,720
So they've had another 11.8
million cash go out the door

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00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:12,200
because and that that was paid
119,000 lbs of uranium at 100

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00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:16,240
and $100 a pound, which is what
the price was agreed on when

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they actually loaned it to them.
And then they've also got to pay

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00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:26,600
another 100,000 lbs outstanding
at $100 a pound before June

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00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,640
27th.
And then at the election of boss

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will be if that's either paid in
physical uranium or the

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00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:38,680
equivalent cash value.
So unless the uranium spot price

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00:12:38,680 --> 00:12:44,440
goes up above $100 by March
15th, which is my birthday by

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the way, I'd say that I'd say
that boss will be taking that in

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00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:51,160
cash.
So I think you, you put that

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00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,360
together, they don't have
doesn't allow have any debt

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besides that because they did
have the previous debt with

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Energy Fuels after which so they
bought Ultimates off.

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00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,720
But that's I think 40 million of
that was repaid of the

226
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,200
convertible debt and then 20
million remaining was converted

227
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,240
into Encore shares.
So that's all been finalized.

228
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,160
So you look at that down out the
door and the ramp up dramas

229
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,640
outside, they're under a bit of
financial pressure at the

230
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,800
moment.
I mean to get to the the crux of

231
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,640
your point on whether they're a
takeover target though, I think

232
00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,360
there's a lot of unanswered
questions on the production miss

233
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,800
today, what the read through is
and what that really means for

234
00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,440
the assets that they hold,
whether they don't quite stack

235
00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:32,280
up.
You know it's quite UN quote

236
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:35,800
cheaper now that The thing is
halved but the assets nowhere

237
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,920
near as good as you thought.
Then it's not really cheaper

238
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,080
exactly.
And and you don't know what what

239
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,120
contracts they've committed to
either like going forward, I'm

240
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,880
not sure if that is fully like
if the markers of the

241
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,720
contracting market.
So I'd Pike, we don't know if

242
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:52,800
they're what they're committed
to.

243
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,280
So like if you go in as you
said, like you're struggling

244
00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,920
with ramp up, but they've got a
shit load contracted out to

245
00:13:59,920 --> 00:14:04,240
these utilities and you want to
take them over and take on those

246
00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:05,400
contracts.
What do you what?

247
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:09,400
Do you think of the opacity in
in contracting and do you think

248
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,320
it's right for companies to
withhold that info from

249
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,480
shareholders?
It's not.

250
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:15,200
It's not up to them, it's the
utility.

251
00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,640
Like it's all dictated by the
utilities because the, because

252
00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:22,360
the utilities don't want
everything they're doing known

253
00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:25,200
by the market because it could
have such an impact on what

254
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,880
they're going to pay for their
next bit of bit of uranium.

255
00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,800
So whether it's, yeah, it's
actually not the company's

256
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,920
choice is my understanding.
It's all in the when they do

257
00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:38,280
these contracts, the utilities
all say what they can and can't

258
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,920
disclose.
The the different one was what

259
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,680
next Gen. were able to disclose
when they did.

260
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,200
I think it was a contract last
year, but they're obviously

261
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,200
allowed to disclose that.
I've seen I've.

262
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,960
Seen that, you know, that sort
of disclosure a bit more.

263
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,000
Not nothing too specific,
there's just ranges and sorts of

264
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,960
things, floors and ceilings.
But yeah, it's, it's an

265
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,720
interesting one.
I find it frustrating if you

266
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:06,120
know as a say, prospective
uranium shareholder to not have

267
00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,080
a firm understanding of what the
company could own.

268
00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:09,960
You know, it's the top line,
it's the top line.

269
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,280
You're kind of keen to know what
that could look like.

270
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:13,840
Well, and that.
That's why they all have to

271
00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,600
raise capital a lot.
Not many of them can.

272
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,880
I think it's very hard to get
debt as a uranium developer

273
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,920
'cause you've got, no, the
lender hasn't got foresight of

274
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,440
what you're actually going to be
selling everything at whether

275
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:26,680
the contracts are in place yet
or not.

276
00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,080
So, and whether that's disclosed
or not.

277
00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,360
So anyway, like, you know, what
are they, they got one and a

278
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,920
half million pounds hopefully
eventually coming out of the the

279
00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,040
South Texas operations at Alta
Mesa.

280
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:44,160
That that's from the Alta Mesa
bit the the Rosita plant that's

281
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:48,120
licensed for £800,000 a year,
which is expandable under the

282
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,120
current license, but I can't
find how much it's expandable

283
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,680
by.
They've also got that Kingsville

284
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,560
dime ISR plant, part of the
South Texas that's licensed.

285
00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,280
They've got that Dewey book
thing in South Dakota.

286
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:05,440
So that's going to be £1,000,000
a year for a £17 million

287
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:06,960
resource.
But then it's got like, you

288
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:11,760
know, pre production CapEx there
of US 86 million still needing

289
00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,520
final API approval.
And there's a couple other

290
00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,800
projects in New Mexico and
Wyoming.

291
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,920
I suppose the logical, the
logical player based on their

292
00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:25,520
involvement already will be boss
considering they have the ISR

293
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,200
experience.
They've got 30% of Altimasa

294
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,720
already.
But look they're they're sitting

295
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,920
under A1 bill market cap and if
you weigh up a bloody merger

296
00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:40,280
ratio on that and they got to
pay over frigging 5600 mil

297
00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:43,400
Aussie for Encore, it's like and
they're already struggling.

298
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:48,480
It's like, would they see actual
benefit in it or not with 2/3 of

299
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,440
a pro forma or less?
Like who knows?

300
00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,240
Who knows?
And based on everything that

301
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,520
we've said, we don't know.
Like in terms of the US

302
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:03,840
companies still like, yeah, who
knows, Like God that they might

303
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:05,800
get bloody bought back by who
they bought it off.

304
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,520
Who knows, but depends how.
They they view the value of

305
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,119
their own paper as well.
Obviously that's fluctuated

306
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,160
massively over the past year.
I think when I look this morning

307
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:19,640
we're sort of around 2 bucks 40,
but they'll you know, that'll

308
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:23,000
that'll form a key part of how
they approach any M&A and

309
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:27,160
whether that's a, you know, a
heavy use of paper in that M&A.

310
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:32,360
But like I say, remains to be
seen in this kind of an occasion

311
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,800
uranium environment it's.
I would love to know a bloody

312
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,680
over the ditch tariff expert if
like your first pass analysis of

313
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,880
everything right now.
Do you want to own Would U.S.

314
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,600
companies want to own more US
assets or less at the moment?

315
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:53,600
What's the first pass thoughts.
Send me your ideas because it

316
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,480
sounds like it could be either
way.

317
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,360
It just the ball bank was on
bloody some follow out of the

318
00:17:59,360 --> 00:18:03,080
Trump administration was on Oh,
CNNI think the other night

319
00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,560
saying, oh, this we're going to
start the next nuclear

320
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,960
renaissance in this
administration.

321
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,000
So you got that that sort of
those bullish comments and then

322
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:15,200
the like, as you said before,
the thesis has never been better

323
00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:19,560
for uranium.
But look, the underlying well,

324
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,040
you you you could say the
underlying price has gone down,

325
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,360
but the spot price isn't really
the underlying price.

326
00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:29,600
I'd say the term, the fact that
the term price has gone up is

327
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:34,560
even more positive, but it's
just these, the equities haven't

328
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,600
gone back to what they were the
other year.

329
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:41,360
So yeah.
I'm not sure I'd say the the

330
00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:44,400
broader narrative has has never
been better.

331
00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,680
You know, since the last
friggin.

332
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:48,800
Yeah.
Yeah, there's, there's a sort of

333
00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,160
long, long history there.
But it is, it is rather enticing

334
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,120
and it's much more enticing now
than it was last year.

335
00:18:56,120 --> 00:18:57,920
I think that's exactly how I'd
say it.

336
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,680
But.
Yeah, that's why you need a CFD

337
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,680
hedge fund, JD.
You got to you got to hedge this

338
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,160
risk out fucking Long Island.
It's risky stuff.

339
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:06,000
Yeah.
I.

340
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:09,480
Mean, I think the, the real
lesson is just to understand if

341
00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:11,960
you are going to invest in these
companies where you sit in the

342
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:16,240
cost curve and be predicted by
that seeing how brutal downturns

343
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,360
in in uranium can be and how
long they can kind of last.

344
00:19:19,360 --> 00:19:21,040
So you need, you need
protection.

345
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,320
And I think by nature, these
these restart projects are

346
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,400
always a bit riskier.
So you want to make sure you're

347
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,840
sitting in Q1Q2 and you're
buying those projects at an

348
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:33,360
attractive price just to sort of
protect your investment because

349
00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:38,240
commodities are super sort of
cyclical and uranium is as

350
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,680
opaque as they come.
But I think even if you're at

351
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,240
the front of the cost curve and
uranium shits itself, you still

352
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,840
fucking lose money anyway.
Absolutely.

353
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:48,880
That was in the context of if
you're.

354
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,800
In it or you're not.
That's in the.

355
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,800
Context of if you're going to be
in uranium, you know, you need

356
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,120
to understand where you are in
that curve.

357
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,640
Yeah, if you want.
To have not 0 and liquidate if

358
00:20:00,120 --> 00:20:04,000
you want to, if you want to stay
alive anyway, we'll I think

359
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,320
there's going to be plenty more
coming out of I'll be interested

360
00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:11,600
to see what happens on on.
On call tonight on the TSX and D

361
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,760
and the NASDAQ under the.
Cent mate, there's one certainty

362
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,920
in the world of ISR mines.
What's that?

363
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,200
That.
Certainty is that you need mud

364
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,440
Rotary for the well fields and
there is one name to go to for

365
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,480
all this right and.
It doesn't even make sense at

366
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,840
the moment, but it will.
WA Waterboards Gerald James is

367
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:32,440
back in the house and he is up
for a name change if needed

368
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,920
because he's the foundation of
mud Rotary for him come from

369
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,120
find him water for everyone.
But his skills can be

370
00:20:39,120 --> 00:20:43,120
transferred as you said JD to
RIP it into paleo channels for

371
00:20:43,120 --> 00:20:44,600
ice art.
So maybe you want?

372
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,400
To get ahead of the curve as
well mate, right?

373
00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:50,440
Can you imagine?
Gerald James said to me, I am

374
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:54,560
not dying until I drill a well
field in WA.

375
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,000
So maybe if that gets changed
this century, Gerald James is

376
00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,200
ready to go.
He'll do it when he's 110 if he

377
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,280
has to, but he's not.
Then go out, not go on and.

378
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,600
Shake the big follows end up top
until he's smashed at Paleo

379
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:11,200
Channel in WA.
So mate, WA water balls.

380
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,120
They're back bigger than ever
and they're ready to take on the

381
00:21:14,120 --> 00:21:16,240
world of water and uranium
drilling.

382
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:17,440
Go, Jerry.
James, good.

383
00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,000
Thanks.
For coming back mate.

384
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:24,480
I bloody missed it, right JD?
Great title and it says exactly

385
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,560
what this topic is about.
Macro risk off question mark.

386
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,760
But I was, I was looking at the
screens this morning and there

387
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,400
was there was a bunch of
drilling results out there was a

388
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,200
few production numbers as you
kind of spoke to there overseas.

389
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,960
But what, what sort of really
grabbed my attention as well as

390
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,400
over the weekend was what's
happening in a macro level and

391
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:49,080
the sort of change in, in nature
or the change in attitude toward

392
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:51,600
risk.
And I think there's no shortage

393
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,640
of standbytes and interesting
events.

394
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,040
And I think we kind of in part
got a step back from those

395
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,440
things because it can be pretty,
pretty interesting what's coming

396
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,560
out of the White House and other
parts of the world.

397
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,560
But I thought it'd be kind of
handy from a personal

398
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,520
perspective to boil down my
thinking and do a bit of

399
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,440
digging, kind of organize my
thoughts in a few areas.

400
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,240
So firstly I'm.
Sorry to interrupt, but I feel

401
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,840
you would.
Whether you are hosting a

402
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,880
podcast or not, you would have
done this anyway.

403
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:21,160
It was a long weekend.
I had a bit of time you could be

404
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,800
on to something there.
What I wanted to get into,

405
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:28,800
Maddie, was how the the market's
attitude toward risk is changing

406
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,400
what the kind of temperature is
right now on that regard as well

407
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,280
as just a broad kind of China
deep dive.

408
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,480
And of course, pulling that back
into to metals and mining

409
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,040
specifically on the investment
side as it kind of relates to

410
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,320
what we talk about all the time
on the podcast and kind of just

411
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,520
see where it got got me.
And I'm, I'm not sure I have any

412
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,120
more clarity at the end of that
process, but I thought I'd chat

413
00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:52,920
about it regardless, mate.
And is this.

414
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,560
Today.
Today.

415
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,280
Well, this is what the
temperature is today that you

416
00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,280
feel.
Yeah, I'm, I'm.

417
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,040
Kind of the, the school of
thought of big macro calls are

418
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,920
incredibly hard.
I've, I've got as little chances

419
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,080
as anybody or perhaps less
chance of, of calling these

420
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,480
things, but I think it's much
easier to, to kind of get a

421
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,520
feeling of where we are right
now as opposed to what's going

422
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,160
to happen in, in six months, in
12 months.

423
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:19,080
That's, that's an incredibly
hard game to play.

424
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,680
But you can get a bit of a gauge
for, for what different people

425
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,880
are saying, what different
companies are saying, what

426
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,280
different countries are doing
and the actions they're kind of

427
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:31,160
taking right now to sort of get
your bearings about yourself

428
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:31,720
right.
I'm.

429
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:33,520
Lied on me, JD.
Well, I thought.

430
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,240
I'd sort of go around the
grounds and sort of call out

431
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,560
what we've seen in various
markets and indexes over the

432
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:42,000
past little while.
So to start with the NASDAQ down

433
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,800
8 1/2 percent over the past
couple weeks.

434
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:49,600
NVIDIA great proxy for risk
assets is down 19% in the past

435
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,760
couple weeks.
You've got the S&P 500, so

436
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,680
perhaps not quite as frothy, not
quite as sort of tech centric,

437
00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:01,080
down about 5%.
The ASX 200 is down 5% as well.

438
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,400
And you know, perhaps to an
extent people are thinking that

439
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:08,600
buying the likes of CBA and
other type businesses at 26

440
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,280
times earnings is a a bit steep
as sort of Romano spoke about on

441
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:16,240
our show and many other people
have spoken about and is.

442
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,160
That is that DM 5% in because
there haven't been many big

443
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:24,600
XTV's come through for your big
big caps which can drive the ASX

444
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,600
200 down but that they.
They haven't come through in

445
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,760
this period.
A lot have been announced but

446
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,720
they'll only get, you know,
they'll only go ex dividend in a

447
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,080
month ish, maybe six weeks or
so.

448
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:35,920
True 5.
Percent.

449
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,440
Yeah, that's the sort.
Of total return kind of basis on

450
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,840
which I'm looking at it, you've
got Bitcoin as well, down 18%.

451
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,640
I think that's one of the best
risk proxies you can get out

452
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,800
there in the market.
And then on the other side of

453
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,000
that, gold in U.S. dollar terms
down just a smidge in Aussie

454
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,560
dollar terms.
That's a very impressive looking

455
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,120
chart.
We are at 4640 bucks in Aussie

456
00:24:58,120 --> 00:25:01,360
dollar terms, which is, you know
that's a hell of a gold price.

457
00:25:01,360 --> 00:25:03,200
So every.
Gold miner should make money

458
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,560
this quarter every.
Gold miner should make money

459
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,120
this quarter.
Yeah, there's there's very

460
00:25:08,120 --> 00:25:09,960
little exception for that one.
What?

461
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,560
What do you reckon, Maddie?
You, you speak with a lot of,

462
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,000
you know, brokers and heaps of
people in the market, in and

463
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,800
around markets.
You, you know, you had a

464
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,800
conference a couple weeks ago.
That's always a great place to,

465
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:21,920
to get a feel for what the, the
mood is like.

466
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,080
And, you know, we were chatting
just before how the, the moods

467
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,360
kind of changed in the last two
weeks.

468
00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:27,400
What do you reckon?
Oh.

469
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:32,280
And as I said, when user in and
DABA, it was just and you had

470
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:36,800
those three few gold exploration
companies RIP, which is what

471
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:42,400
Ozorum, Kalgold and Caprice like
that was just it just you could

472
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,240
just feel the bloody.
There's like, Oh, this is risk

473
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:50,040
on time, like this is really,
really pumping and whether it

474
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,040
wasn't dictated as much by
something on the macro.

475
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,080
So I but it's just like it just
felt like gold was really

476
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:58,960
pumping.
Then you even like on the back

477
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:03,120
of, you know, just even Hastings
rare earth thing with Wiley

478
00:26:03,120 --> 00:26:04,800
lights.
Oh, rare earths are back on.

479
00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:08,320
And then there's, you know, more
talk about bloody batteries and

480
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,560
people bullish of the lithium
turning around.

481
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,480
Like you just felt that.
But then like just within

482
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,040
fricking 2 weeks and and this
room today reminds me of

483
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,640
diggers.
Remember the Japan stuff that

484
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,920
diggers and like there was just
bloodbath.

485
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,360
It was carry.
Trade meltdown.

486
00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:23,960
Yeah.
And it was.

487
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,760
Just two days worth of bloodbath
and there's just if there's

488
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,160
unless there's like some big
macro theme and whether it was

489
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:36,480
the tariffs last night that just
overtake everything from

490
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,160
individual commodity base, it
just and I feel that market

491
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,960
temperature today, just today
feels like that's what's

492
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:45,360
happening.
But then you look at, you know,

493
00:26:45,360 --> 00:26:48,120
BHP and Ray are pretty flat
today.

494
00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:53,240
I think they're .3% downside
whether the hey flower funds

495
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:58,040
from the specky to the big stuff
to which is sorted a bit of the

496
00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:59,920
hemorrhaging out there.
But I'll just yeah, I'll just

497
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:03,240
feel as it.
Do you think this time of the

498
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,920
market, with just the fact that
Trump's in and then the

499
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,440
geopolitical stuff with US,
China, Russia, Ukraine,

500
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:14,480
everything, do you feel like
this is one of the hardest times

501
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:18,200
to have some sort of macro
outlook because it's such a

502
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,800
freaking dynamic environment
globally I'd.

503
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,960
Probably say no.
Times are times are always

504
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:26,040
interesting.
They're always tough.

505
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,680
Things are always hard to call.
There's always, you know,

506
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,280
there's 8 billion people on the
planet.

507
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,120
There's always interesting stuff
going on.

508
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,320
It's it's never easy.
And you know, funds management

509
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,960
is a super hard industry, super
competitive because there's so

510
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,120
much stuff going on, so many
people competing for a sort of

511
00:27:42,120 --> 00:27:45,040
limited set of opportunities.
So I think it's, you know, a bit

512
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,640
out there to say it's the the
hardest time ever, but it's, you

513
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:51,160
know, it's still not easy.
It's never easy.

514
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,960
It's never easy.
There's, there's always a lot to

515
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,560
kind of taking and I think, you
know, stepping back and seeing

516
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,480
what the big picture is, you
know, the, the, the tariff

517
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,600
stuff, for instance, China's
been talking about this forever.

518
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,640
Like it's, it's not new.
It's almost like this is the the

519
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,640
thing to point to right now.
Is it because?

520
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,680
He's taking action, but it's a
bit different now perhaps.

521
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,160
Perhaps, Yeah, I think, I think
you could be right.

522
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,960
And I think that's a good sort
of segue into into China because

523
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,640
heaps is going on in China.
There's loads we could talk

524
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,800
about on this front.
Just just this morning they came

525
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,960
out with some retaliation
tariffs after the US slapped on

526
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,120
those 10% tariffs.
Obviously there was the stuff in

527
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:35,040
Mexico and Canada as well.
But China's got their biggest

528
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,160
political get together starting
today.

529
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:38,640
It's called the sort of two
sessions.

530
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,640
There's kind of two government
bodies meeting that's sort of

531
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:47,320
overlap in timing and they are
sort of outlining the strateg,

532
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,880
the strategy for the nation.
There's an expectation the

533
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,680
government will set the bar at
5% growth over this year to help

534
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,640
them hit that target.
It's anticipated that they will

535
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,720
move their official budget
deficit target to a three decade

536
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,120
high by they're going to borrow
more money to to fund this.

537
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,600
And you can sort of see it on
the chart we're showing now on

538
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,520
YouTube.
If you're hone in on that fiscal

539
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:14,560
deficit to GDP number, they're
talking about lifting it to 4%

540
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,280
from 3%.
People that are sort of steeped

541
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:22,040
in this will will know we're at
about 7% in a similar ratio in

542
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:24,240
the US.
So we're far below that.

543
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,000
You can also look at it from
this augmented fiscal deficit

544
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,040
number, which is approaching
17%.

545
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,960
So it's kind of up and to the
right this this deficit in China

546
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:37,600
as well as the US, although in
the US it's on a bigger scale

547
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,240
that has been for some time now
isn't.

548
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:44,480
It, I'll just remember how China
was touted as always the 10%

549
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,160
growth in China.
And you just say by that graph

550
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:51,280
here, that is just gradually now
becoming 5%'s the number.

551
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,920
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And which like you know, on a

552
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,640
percentage terms like a global
scale, that is a lot of stuff

553
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,520
that affects a lot of countries,
specifically Australia one

554
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,000
point. 3 billion people it sure
is on on the inflation side as

555
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:06,880
well.
They, they are lowering their

556
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:11,160
target from 3 to 2% and
inflation, very different to the

557
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,880
Western world, has come in
beneath the target every year

558
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,240
since 2011, which is kind of
mind boggling if you're sitting

559
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:20,160
here from Australia or if you're
in the US and thinking about it

560
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,120
on the stock market side of
things.

561
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:24,240
You'll remember we spoke a bunch
about this sort of September,

562
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,400
October last year when they were
talking about these big stimulus

563
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,840
projects that we're going to do.
They're going to boost the

564
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,960
equity markets, which was a very
different take for the US and

565
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,560
their markets have performed
really strongly.

566
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:40,960
So Shanghai has sort of held its
level after that 25% surge in

567
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:43,360
the space of a couple weeks last
September.

568
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,760
If you look at the Hong Kong
index that is up about 21% in

569
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,360
the past six weeks alone.
Now if you if you zoom out and

570
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:55,000
you're looking on a on a 20 year
horizon, it doesn't look that

571
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,120
stellar.
But there is a, you know,

572
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,120
there's a, there's a moment in
time now where things are

573
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,760
looking quite positive on, on
that front in.

574
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:04,440
China.
So what about if you're going to

575
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,760
go down a level to the metals
themselves?

576
00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:10,880
JD Yeah.
So to to reference that

577
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,840
discussion we had back in
September and October, again,

578
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,360
there was a lot of focus and a
lot of desire from people in the

579
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,960
middle's world to want to see
big fiscal stimulus as opposed

580
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,960
to this monetary action.
They wanted to see

581
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:24,400
infrastructure projects getting
built.

582
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,800
They wanted to see property
projects going ahead because

583
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,960
this needs a lot of vinyl, a lot
of METCO and all these sorts of

584
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,240
things to build things.
And that would be the kicker

585
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,200
that all last get by punting on
on mining stocks.

586
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,880
So a bit has happened on that
front.

587
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,160
So the local government debt
ceilings have been relaxed and a

588
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,200
few other things are going on.
But right now we're not

589
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,480
expecting any massive stimulus
because of that trade war.

590
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,160
They want to keep a bit of ammo
up their sleeve to see what

591
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,680
happens over the next few
months.

592
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,680
You know, Trump is coming out,
he's whacking them around and

593
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,440
that's, that's the sort of ammo
that's how he operates.

594
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,840
And they'll have this big get
together.

595
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,680
She and Trump will meet in I
think in May or sometime.

596
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,000
And they want to sort of soften
them up before they before they

597
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,800
shake hands and and knock out a
deal.

598
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,800
So they're going to keep a bit
of ammo up their sleeve is what

599
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:15,480
I'm sort of saying there.
In in short, the fiscal stimulus

600
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,960
does have competition from
another angle as well, though,

601
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:23,000
and that's the Chinese desire to
reduce their reliance on

602
00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:26,360
property and infrastructure and
focus on other parts of their

603
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,640
economy.
They want to build out tech,

604
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,800
they want to build out
manufacturing, they want to

605
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,560
build out healthcare and all
these other parts of the economy

606
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:38,840
and they just don't use as much
materials as property and

607
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,880
infrastructure.
Not to say they don't use

608
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,680
anything but that.
That's so weird to say like

609
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:45,640
that.
You say that like they're going

610
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:48,280
to build that out more in there,
but they're so renowned for

611
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:52,880
being the place everywhere goes
for tech and manufacturing.

612
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,120
So to think they're going to
expand on that's pretty, it's

613
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,560
pretty confronting to hear
exactly.

614
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,920
What you've just said really
speaks to what they've done in

615
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,960
the past decade or two and the,
the dominance that they've built

616
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,520
by honing in and focusing on
those industries.

617
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,280
It's, it's fascinating.
Like I still think there will be

618
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,240
lots of say, infrastructure
investment.

619
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,080
They need to build out the grid.
This uses lots of copper and

620
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,240
those sorts of things.
That's a part of their, you

621
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:18,680
know, independence from the rest
of the world.

622
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,520
I think it's really guided by
this policy of wanting to be

623
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,520
self-sufficient.
They don't want to have to rely

624
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,400
on any other country for for
anything.

625
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,160
That's why they've gone so hard
at EVs.

626
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,040
They, you know, take the
reliance.

627
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,880
And and I assume uranium as well
to take the reliance of

628
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,840
importing coal exactly.
Nuclear, you can say the same

629
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,480
for, you can say the same for a
whole bunch of other sectors.

630
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,600
They don't want to be reliant on
anyone and that's how they get

631
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:44,880
themselves there.
Mattie, you spoke about robots

632
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,440
last week.
Check out this chart for for

633
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:52,240
people listening to the Potty.
You can see on the on the Y axis

634
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,400
the amount of industrial robots
installed in the top five

635
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,560
countries around the world and
we're looking at a sort of 15

636
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:02,960
year time on the X axis.
China.

637
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,040
Just wipes the floor.
They clean up Japan, the US,

638
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,040
South Korea, and Germany.
It it looks like those countries

639
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,600
haven't even haven't even gone
forward.

640
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,159
Maybe they're sort of double
while China has 10X over the

641
00:34:15,159 --> 00:34:17,480
past 15 years.
Yeah, it's it's just crazy.

642
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,120
Build it out.
Even more, that's phenomenal,

643
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:20,400
the build out.
Is happening it's just not

644
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,840
happening in the West.
It's it's crazy and yeah, I mean

645
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:28,320
on on EVs and tech specifically,
it is insanely impressive what

646
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,440
they've done.
And, you know, we think of them

647
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,000
as a sort of socialist country,
but it's the most capitalistic

648
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:35,960
top system.
That kind of is, especially if

649
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,960
you compare it to the big three
auto manufacturers in the US or

650
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,679
the the the European auto space
who are sort of begging for

651
00:34:43,679 --> 00:34:46,280
handouts from the government at
the moment to protect themselves

652
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:49,560
from what was an industry with
hundreds and hundreds of car

653
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,440
makers.
That has been sort of whittled

654
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:55,440
down as the government kind of
turns the screws on a you've now

655
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,080
got the the best car makers in
the world.

656
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,000
The best cars are coming out of
China.

657
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:02,240
You know, they might not have
that luxury brand associated

658
00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:06,320
with them just yet, but they are
making the the best electric

659
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,960
vehicles in the world.
They they make an.

660
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:10,480
Ayds around here.
You.

661
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:11,280
You.
Sure do.

662
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,400
And they're in in some parts of
the world, they're cheaper than

663
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,400
ICE vehicles.
It's seriously impressive what

664
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:18,840
they've done.
And to your point, Maddie,

665
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:19,760
they're doing the same in
nuclear.

666
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,120
They're going to do the same in
batteries.

667
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,520
They've already done it solar.
That's another great example of

668
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:26,800
where they've done it.
It is it's crazy.

669
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,600
It's crazy impressive in my in
my eyes to to put that

670
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,040
infrastructure slash property
sector stimulus in a bit more

671
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,440
context as well.
It's worth talking about the

672
00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,280
consumption side of GDP.
You know, when you when you

673
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,840
learn economics one O 1, you
kind of think of consumption

674
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:51,560
plus investment plus government
spend plus net net exports to to

675
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:58,520
kind of get to your view of GDP
And the a western style economy

676
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,720
focuses much more on that
consumption part.

677
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:05,280
That's pretty services heavy.
Think of things like Netflix and

678
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,840
stuff in China.
For a long time, it's been much

679
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,320
more investment heavy, these
projects to build roads, to

680
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,040
build property and these sorts
of things and they want to move

681
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,200
themselves away.
Last year actually saw

682
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,840
consumption being the lowest
part of that GDP makeup in over

683
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,720
20 years.
So why I'm sort of mentioning

684
00:36:21,720 --> 00:36:26,400
this is it's just another kind
of the headwind on that that

685
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:29,440
property and investment, that
property and infrastructure side

686
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,720
of things.
And again, it's not as metals

687
00:36:31,720 --> 00:36:34,400
heavy.
You're wanting to build out an

688
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,520
economy that's more focused on
services and these sorts of

689
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,840
things.
It has a a little bit less

690
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,080
metals demand than the
alternative might have.

691
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,480
But who knows if the if the
aggregate grows, metals demand

692
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,920
could be still marching forward.
So it's just another kind of

693
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,920
lens to to look at this at they.
Still got the restrictions on

694
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:55,040
how many kids they can have over
there, weren't they?

695
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,880
Wasn't it what you could so?
It was one for a long time, then

696
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,560
for a brief moment in time it
was 2, I think the space of a

697
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,040
few years.
And then they lifted it up to

698
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,120
three.
I want to say they've wiped it

699
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,200
completely.
The the demographics don't look

700
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:08,280
great.
And that's why people sort of

701
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,560
frame it.
It's frame the debate in this

702
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,640
like will they get rich before
they get old?

703
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,680
Context.
And everyone compares it with

704
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,240
with Japan.
Yeah, getting a bit out of my

705
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:23,840
pay grade, but could listen to
people chat about that for a

706
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:25,520
long time because it's really
fascinating.

707
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:27,040
Well, it sounds.
Like from what you're saying,

708
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:30,160
with the rise of the robotics
over there, they could build out

709
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,040
of expand a lot of these
industries without needing shit

710
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:36,800
loads of people in the country
to facilitate the expansion.

711
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:37,400
Yeah.
And the.

712
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,600
Knock was, you know, that label
was always much cheaper there.

713
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,320
But that's not really the case
anymore.

714
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,840
If you're you're going to look
at building a factory around the

715
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,160
world, you want to do it where
the cheapest labour is.

716
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:48,680
China's not top of the list
anymore.

717
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,400
They're they're competent and
they're really effective

718
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,720
factories that can do it at an
efficient price, not purely

719
00:37:55,720 --> 00:37:58,320
because of that cheap labour
component.

720
00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:59,800
They're just good at what they
do, Yeah.

721
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,000
Yeah.
And now are you?

722
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:06,240
Oh God, few times I'm, I'm
starting to understand a lot of

723
00:38:06,240 --> 00:38:08,720
stuff that you've said.
Historically, it was all over me

724
00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:10,160
head.
I'll get there one day.

725
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:14,520
JD, the Belton Rd. initiative,
yes, that you've spoken about

726
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,600
before.
The Belton Rd. initiative is

727
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:23,120
it's, it's massive.
It was China's way of building

728
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,080
infrastructure and trade across
the world.

729
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,680
It was this sort of strategy to
to do this.

730
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:32,360
It was launched by XI, the the
current president back in 2013.

731
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,160
It was designed to sort of
influence trade and build

732
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,440
relationships all around the
world and sort of took the form

733
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:44,280
of loans, the construction deals
and project purchases and that

734
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,440
sort of metals and mining.
Think buying copper projects and

735
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,360
all these sorts of things all
around the world and getting the

736
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:52,240
off take, securing the supply.
That's how it's really relevant

737
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,760
to to our world.
And I think it's super, super

738
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,320
interesting.
Just recently the numbers came

739
00:38:56,320 --> 00:39:01,720
out for the investment in 2024.
So I thought it was worth, I

740
00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:04,080
thought it was worth sharing a
few of those numbers and kind of

741
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:08,040
chatting through them with, with
you to, to help us kind of grasp

742
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,560
what they've done and just the
scale of their investment

743
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,040
overseas.
So you got 2024 being the

744
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:18,280
highest ever engagement for
China through its Belton Rd.

745
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,080
initiative.
So 51 billion U.S. dollars was

746
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,440
made in investments and 71
billion in construction

747
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:27,760
contracts.
They're the two baskets and oil

748
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,040
and gas, that's the the biggest
component of this with metals

749
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:34,960
and mining coming in seconds.
So $22 billion mostly made-up of

750
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,640
investments.
So that's them going and buying

751
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:40,680
copper mines of copper, cobalt
mines, all these sorts of things

752
00:39:40,720 --> 00:39:43,960
all around the world.
And I'll just point out quickly

753
00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,400
that coal, they do a fair bit in
coal as well, but that's sort of

754
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,160
put under that energy basket.
So in actual fact, mining if you

755
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:53,360
can in coal is, is even bigger.
The numbers are even even

756
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,200
bigger.
The energy side, which is

757
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:58,640
massive is often made-up of
construction spend as well.

758
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,240
Whereas in mining you're buying
those those stakes.

759
00:40:01,240 --> 00:40:03,520
So whenever we've talked about
these Chinese companies often

760
00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:07,880
state owned entities doing M&A
that will fall into this basket

761
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,080
of.
The Belt and Road Initiative,

762
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,320
yeah, right.
If you, if you zoom out and look

763
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,880
all around the world where
they're focusing on where

764
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:18,920
they're focused over 2024,
you've got Latin America hitting

765
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:23,080
its lowest point in 10 years and
the Middle East taking out

766
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:24,920
number one spot.
So the most amount of dollars

767
00:40:24,920 --> 00:40:27,320
went into the Middle East, which
is very interesting.

768
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:32,080
The three countries to hone in
specifically by investment was

769
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,280
Indonesia.
That's the nickel investment.

770
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:37,840
Obviously Saudi Arabia, they're
big energy projects that they're

771
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,440
doing there and Kazakhstan
actually.

772
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,360
So I thought that was pretty
interesting.

773
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:43,840
And then the biggest thing is
the.

774
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:48,120
Kazakhstan it'd be, would any of
it be in the fat lot, the

775
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,040
farming and agriculture
industry?

776
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,240
Because I know that's.
Absolutely.

777
00:40:52,240 --> 00:40:56,840
That is bigger than the uranium
industry because they got the

778
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,240
preference for sulfuric acid.
So, yeah, so.

779
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,880
I'll check out this chart now
and you can see on the right

780
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:07,560
hand side there's 2024 how the
investment is split out by

781
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,040
sectors.
So like I said that green is the

782
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,800
the biggest one that's energy
projects, the the darker colour

783
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:18,200
there is metals and mining tech
swung up massively transport,

784
00:41:18,720 --> 00:41:21,640
you know, roads, these sorts of
infrastructure type projects,

785
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:23,880
massive as well.
And then you've got sort of

786
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,600
smaller ones, chemical plants,
these types of things.

787
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:30,720
So.
So energy is the the chunky.

788
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,520
That's a good chunk of it.
That's the biggest, yeah.

789
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,160
And it was a lot bigger.
But yeah, it shows you how much

790
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,680
metal, metals and mining still
less than energy, but it's

791
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,120
really frigging amped up.
It's massive.

792
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,120
It's.
Massive because it's so core to

793
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,960
what they do back home because
they want to secure that that

794
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,040
supply.
Interestingly, the the the

795
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,440
country that shot up the most
year on year was Guinea.

796
00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:55,680
That's obviously on the back of
SIM Andu yeah.

797
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,240
So that went from, you know,
next to next to nothing because

798
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,320
23 yeah and it's you know, it's
year on year.

799
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,840
So it's always you're comparing
it with the year before.

800
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:07,240
If the year before with quite
small, then you've got a a

801
00:42:07,240 --> 00:42:09,600
blowout year, which is pretty
crazy.

802
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,080
I don't think I.
Don't think the predictive

803
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,960
investments going to swing the
needle much compared to what

804
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,560
Samando did.
Not yet.

805
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,920
Not yet.
In terms of the the scale, you

806
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:20,760
know, if you, you want to try
and quantify what they've

807
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,040
invested purely investments, not
construction over the the past

808
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:29,160
11 years, we're talking about
half a trillion U.S. dollars in

809
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,720
investments.
So that's, that's chunky and I'd

810
00:42:32,720 --> 00:42:35,280
love to see if you combine the
Western world's investment, what

811
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,160
that comes out at.
I don't think it'd be coming out

812
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,280
quite as high, but I, I don't
know the numbers on that front.

813
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:43,880
So you know, that I, I, I found
that really interesting reading

814
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:45,880
through that, getting an
understanding for it.

815
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,120
And, you know, there's a,
there's a lot of critics of the

816
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,920
Belton Rd. initiative as well.
Obviously a lot of them would

817
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:54,720
come from competing countries.
Not all those loans that the

818
00:42:54,720 --> 00:42:59,400
countries received were, you
know, the the best loans.

819
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:01,240
You know, there was a lot of
accusations that China is

820
00:43:01,240 --> 00:43:04,280
putting these sort of debt traps
on smaller countries,

821
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:07,480
undeveloped nations who won't be
able to pay them back.

822
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,000
And China, I'm sure dusted a
fair bit of money in the

823
00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:12,680
process.
A lot of them would have gone

824
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,560
bad.
And maybe they scoop up some

825
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:19,880
sort of security on on the loan
itself, but that's not really

826
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,560
what they were there for.
So it's it's refined its

827
00:43:22,560 --> 00:43:24,280
approach over time.
It has looked at actually

828
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:28,000
smaller projects to what it did
back in 2013 when it came out

829
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,160
with just these enormous
projects all around the world.

830
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:34,640
And they have looked a bit more
at ownership in the past couple

831
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:38,440
of years as opposed to this
construction type contract,

832
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,080
which is another interesting
kind of trend to to to think

833
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:43,280
about.
So.

834
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:47,880
Based on all of that, I assume
is your conclusion sort of is

835
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:52,360
the West doing it, not doing it
wrong, but just really falling

836
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,440
behind the rise of China in all
those areas or it's it's?

837
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,840
Like you, you know, you'd get
this as much as anyone, Maddie,

838
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,000
we're, we're watching this stuff
every day, but it just doesn't

839
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:03,760
feel like that much of A
priority here.

840
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:07,400
People talk about it here and
there and we're, we're very

841
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,760
honed into the industry and
we're, we're looking for people

842
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,280
to say these things in a way,
but it, it just doesn't stack up

843
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:15,960
that high as a priority for the
West.

844
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:19,120
You know, Australia's not really
going to do this.

845
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,640
And if it ever does, it's a very
small extent, even even the US.

846
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:26,600
Like it was interesting hearing
the US Secretary of State, Marco

847
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:30,760
Rubio talk about this last week.
And he sort of said that Trump

848
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:34,560
is looking to sort of forge more
of these deals around the world

849
00:44:34,920 --> 00:44:38,800
to counter China's dominance.
So they're not, you know,

850
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:41,320
they're, they're seeing what
China has done and they, they

851
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,000
want to kind of counteract that
and they want to be pretty

852
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:44,640
strategic about it.
They've sort of put a bit of

853
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,920
pressure on Panama as an example
and got Panama to back out of

854
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,520
the the Belt and Road
Initiative.

855
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:53,920
But I'm not convinced on the
whole, it's a big enough

856
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:57,440
strategy and maybe a big enough
priority rather.

857
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,760
And maybe it comes back to, to
bite us in a few years.

858
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:05,160
But yeah, it's, it's a very,
it's a very hard one to, to kind

859
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:09,760
of ping governments on when
there's a lot of problems in, in

860
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,120
your own backyard.
That's certainly what the US is

861
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,520
talking about a lot lately.
They're trying to sort out their

862
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:18,800
own shit in, in the States, you
know, look after jobs and these

863
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:21,200
kind of things in their budget
deficit and all these sorts of

864
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:23,440
things.
And soon as you go overseas and

865
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,920
start buying copper mines and
all these, you, you run the risk

866
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:29,760
of being accused of getting
everyone at home.

867
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:33,120
And China had this as well.
They, they had people in China

868
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,000
accusing the government of being
more focused on creating jobs

869
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,000
and all these sorts of things
overseas.

870
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:44,200
And yeah, that in a, in a
country like the, the US or here

871
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:46,400
where you have a sort of Free
Press, I'm sure those, those,

872
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,880
those cries will be even louder.
So who knows?

873
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,680
But is it?
What about, like, how much of a

874
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:57,720
factor do you think what the
government's stability plays

875
00:45:57,720 --> 00:45:59,120
into it?
Like, you know, I look at China.

876
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:03,360
How Long's Jay been the premier
president?

877
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:06,520
President.
Yeah, over a decade now, getting

878
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,160
on 13 odd years and it doesn't
look.

879
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,520
Like he's like, there's going to
be anything that's going to get

880
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:14,520
rid of him so he can he can
commit to a a long term plan.

881
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:17,880
Whereas, you know, Australia,
like each government's bloody

882
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:19,880
whatever decision they make is
just freaking.

883
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:23,840
You got the news is hammering
them from the other side, the

884
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:25,960
opposition, and it's just like
back and forth.

885
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:30,360
And it's like, what long term
decision for?

886
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,120
Like it's like they can only
make something that's going to

887
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,200
benefit us for four years.
Yeah.

888
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,320
And we'll get, we'll get real
philosophical, Maddie, but

889
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:40,920
finding out what the the best
type of government is and the

890
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,000
best structure is a, is a huge
question.

891
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,720
And no one's clearly perfected
it.

892
00:46:44,720 --> 00:46:48,720
But there's clearly benefits of
the way that China operates.

893
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:51,280
And, you know, and she came in
he he wasn't meant to hang

894
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:53,160
around this long.
He changed the rules so that he

895
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:56,600
could he could still be here and
be in power today.

896
00:46:56,600 --> 00:47:00,120
So, yeah, there's there's
obviously downsides to it, but

897
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,240
there's, there's certainly pros
about it.

898
00:47:02,240 --> 00:47:04,840
And the the strategy that
they've had and the way they've

899
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,440
been able to build out these
industries like the electric

900
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:11,440
vehicle and the other ones are
ratted off before is very, very

901
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,200
impressive.
And I think there's a good shot

902
00:47:13,200 --> 00:47:16,400
you could say it's more
capitalistic than what we've

903
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:18,320
done in in many industries in
the West.

904
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:22,200
But yeah, I'm sure that's a
that's a sort of point or a

905
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,880
question for somebody far
smarter to to speak to and

906
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:26,360
there's.
You can't say it's better to

907
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:31,040
have it public or private
because you look at, you know,

908
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:35,760
when we've tried to do things,
China was like the Kwinana,

909
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:38,680
Kwinana facility.
Like that's obviously hasn't hit

910
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,320
the mark yet.
And that's obviously got a lot

911
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:45,160
of press from because, you know,
RGI is a public company.

912
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,880
Like, there's obviously been a
shit load of investment into

913
00:47:48,240 --> 00:47:50,760
rare earths, but that's yeah,
money money.

914
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,160
Doesn't just on its own solve
the problem?

915
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:54,240
No, that's.
Where I've learned from.

916
00:47:54,240 --> 00:47:58,400
But then even if it's, you know,
not to do with public companies,

917
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:01,800
look at snowy hydro like that's
blown out from what, 2 billion

918
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:06,880
to 12 billion and still
hopefully like so, yeah, I don't

919
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,120
even know what the answer is
there.

920
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,800
You need you need it like bloody
Chinas hydro.

921
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:14,160
I was watching because, you
know, it's Snowy's pumped hydro,

922
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,720
whereas that China one, the the
next expansion they're looking

923
00:48:17,720 --> 00:48:19,440
to, I think it's a $60 billion
project.

924
00:48:19,440 --> 00:48:22,840
They're just going to hopefully
bloody smash this tunnel through

925
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,600
a mountain from the top part to
the low part.

926
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,520
And it's just all free flowing
hydro from the top of the Tibet

927
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:31,760
mountain.
So yeah, I mean you.

928
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:35,480
You need to have a certain type
of geography to be able to to

929
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:37,640
pull that off.
But I mean, yeah, three gorgeous

930
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:41,440
dam and another type
infrastructure projects such as

931
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:42,480
insane.
Oh mate.

932
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,200
I can't wait to be if bloody, if
there's a government changing,

933
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:48,080
imagine if that nuclear thing
happens in Australia, that's

934
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,560
going to be the next big talking
point if there's bloody huge

935
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,720
talking.
Point, I've got a yeah, a lot of

936
00:48:52,720 --> 00:48:55,680
a lot of thoughts about that.
It's a yeah.

937
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:57,960
It'd be be a really interesting
one.

938
00:48:58,080 --> 00:49:00,520
And you, you said yourself about
the snowy hydro challenges and

939
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:04,640
the, I think we're currently at
a 6X cost blowout on that one.

940
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:08,160
And Can you imagine if, if the
government kind of has to do

941
00:49:08,160 --> 00:49:11,280
something that's on many
multiples of that sort of scale,

942
00:49:12,240 --> 00:49:14,880
what a cost blowout would do to
our government budget would be

943
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:19,200
pretty catastrophic.
So it's a really, really

944
00:49:19,200 --> 00:49:21,600
interesting and important topic
to talk about.

945
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:24,000
But what do you think our scale
is?

946
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:25,880
Australia.
We're just such a small player

947
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:27,720
compared when you class the
West.

948
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,600
We're just such a small player
compared to what the US can do

949
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:34,440
to day China themselves,
compared to what we can do to

950
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,520
day China ourselves, what we
just don't have the money to.

951
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:41,840
Yeah, we don't have the money to
do it obviously at the at the

952
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,960
scale of the US, but I think in
a way it's a bit of a cop out as

953
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:46,680
well.
Everyone's kind of got to do

954
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:47,840
your part and you're doing it
for yourself.

955
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,360
You're not necessarily doing it
for the US.

956
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,360
You've got to tackle the
challenge that you face and

957
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:55,960
tackle it head on, right.
You can't wait for the US to

958
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:58,840
help you out.
Maybe you can spare them along

959
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:00,880
and try and have a chat.
That might not be the easiest

960
00:50:00,880 --> 00:50:03,520
conversation to have, but you
just got to think about it.

961
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:05,480
I'm not, I'm not saying
definitively the answer is for

962
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:08,720
us to go and invest overseas and
buy these projects and do all

963
00:50:08,720 --> 00:50:10,280
this sort of stuff.
That's yeah.

964
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:13,480
That's not I mean.
Investing locally to build out

965
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,160
as China similar China stuff
yeah, it just.

966
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:20,760
Needs a a strategy that's very
well thought out and yeah, sort

967
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:24,640
of more speaking to what, what I
notice at the moment as opposed

968
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:27,360
to any sort of solutions out
there right now.

969
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,840
But we're we're bloody good at
mining and maybe that's what we

970
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,360
should hone in on.
And maybe thinking about how we

971
00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:35,840
permit projects and speeding up
that side of things is the way

972
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:41,320
we tackle this this China
dominance and go about future

973
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:44,440
proofing out ourself.
There's, there's very different

974
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,680
ways to do it.
And the playbook that works for

975
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,680
the States and the playbook that
works for China is not going to

976
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:49,680
work for Australia.
Yeah.

977
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:54,160
Last question from me, JD, since
we're on macro, this is going to

978
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:55,680
really get philosophical for
you.

979
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:59,320
I reckon you've thought about
it, all this Dodge stuff that's

980
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:05,760
happening, all this claims of
fraud and, and talking about

981
00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:10,240
listen to Musk on Joe Rogan,
which is, you know, a macro

982
00:51:10,240 --> 00:51:15,280
podcast talking about like
finding $1.8 billion that was

983
00:51:15,720 --> 00:51:19,800
funding some NGO by the
government, which is effectively

984
00:51:19,880 --> 00:51:22,600
a government funded
organization, not an NGO.

985
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,760
Like all those like, yeah, add
up all this savings that they're

986
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:29,440
going to make and all this
spending to people that it's

987
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:34,080
going somewhere, it's going to
someone when they stop giving

988
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,760
all this money out and reduce
their debt.

989
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,960
Is it, what do you think the
effect globally is on all these

990
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:43,960
places around the world or
people around the world that

991
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,600
aren't getting this money now?
Is it going to flow in a

992
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,400
positive or negative way
globally?

993
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,240
Try to tread carefully, not get
into into politics.

994
00:51:55,240 --> 00:52:01,400
Why not?
I think, I think that the broad

995
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,160
strikes are a positive trend,
mate.

996
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,160
That's, that's kind of how I
think about it.

997
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,160
I think about the, the cleaning
up.

998
00:52:08,680 --> 00:52:13,840
I think the overarching desire
to, to fix up for the, for the

999
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,600
US, you know, obviously not
American, so they can do

1000
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:19,520
whatever they want, but their
desire to fix up their balance

1001
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:24,040
sheet is, is a good thing.
I think that's a direction the

1002
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:28,640
country should, should kind of
head in for the, for the, for

1003
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,200
the future of the country.
And I think we've been, we've

1004
00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:33,720
been very lucky in Australia.
We don't face problems to the

1005
00:52:33,720 --> 00:52:37,000
same extent.
Our debt to JDP ratio is nowhere

1006
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:40,680
near as extreme as it is in the,
in the US.

1007
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:42,840
But we've seen what can kind of
happen if you spend beyond

1008
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:44,920
humans.
And I kind of think spending

1009
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:48,920
within humans is, is the way to
go, especially in, in times that

1010
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:51,800
aren't super tough, you know,
quote, UN quote, like we're not

1011
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,480
in a recession and not in a
downturn or anything like that.

1012
00:52:55,480 --> 00:53:01,160
So to have your, your deficit to
GDP being 7% is, is pretty

1013
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:03,240
crazy.
But they've got, they've got

1014
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,760
problems they need to tackle in
the very, very near future.

1015
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:11,360
You know, they need to refinance
1/3 of their like $35 trillion

1016
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:14,720
in, in government debt within
the next year.

1017
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:18,080
And, you know, the way you kind
of want to go about that is to

1018
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,320
do it obviously at the lowest
rate as possible for as long as

1019
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,440
you can, you know, term it out
as as the people on Wall Street

1020
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,760
kind of say.
But that is a pretty tough thing

1021
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,040
to do when rates are where they
are.

1022
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:31,560
You know, it might have been a
whole lot easier.

1023
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,760
You would have done it two or
three years ago, but no use kind

1024
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,600
of thinking about that.
So I think what they're trying

1025
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:42,440
to do cut down their spending is
is a is a positive move for the

1026
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:43,640
country.
Well, the current.

1027
00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:49,560
What about globally?
I mean, yeah, that the, the US

1028
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,360
is a strong ally of Australia,
right?

1029
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:55,520
And my thinking sides much more
with their thinking than it does

1030
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:59,760
with Chinese thinking.
So I think a strong US is, is a

1031
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:03,240
good thing to kind of have.
And yeah, for for that sort of

1032
00:54:03,240 --> 00:54:05,440
matter, you kind of hope Europe
does the same and sort of sorts

1033
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,400
their their problems out as
well.

1034
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,760
Bit less confidence on on that
front.

1035
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:12,560
But I think for a sort of
Western world that it would be

1036
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:18,120
very much in our interest to to
have the US get there, get their

1037
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:22,160
house in order and have that
remain the sort of status quo,

1038
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:23,720
Then it would be the
alternative.

1039
00:54:23,720 --> 00:54:27,400
But this is it's very sort of
big picture, big, big thinking

1040
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:28,680
stuff.
So just.

1041
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,240
Feels like if they're saving
money, someone else is going to

1042
00:54:31,240 --> 00:54:34,400
lose money.
I'll just be interested to see

1043
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,200
if someone files on the back of
them spending a lot less around

1044
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,520
the world, yeah.
Maybe it's an opportunity to

1045
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,200
sort of reorganize and everyone
can sort of think about their

1046
00:54:42,200 --> 00:54:44,600
own business or whatever it is.
I mean, NGOs are kind of

1047
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:48,440
different type example, but if
you're a newspaper, which some

1048
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:51,440
newspapers were getting getting
funding, maybe you need to think

1049
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:53,520
about things a bit differently
and think about your business

1050
00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:55,600
model a bit more and a bit more
innovative.

1051
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:58,760
Yeah, just tackle the problems
as they as they come toward you.

1052
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,040
I've never.
Been so interested in this shit.

1053
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,400
It's like I'll just, I'll just
think if let's pay less, money's

1054
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,680
going out, unemployment in
somewhere is going to rise

1055
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:10,840
significantly perhaps.
In the short term, but in the in

1056
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:13,360
the long term, it's a it's a
better trend in my eyes.

1057
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:17,520
Maybe that is the the short term
answer, but it it creates a new

1058
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,560
playing field and you just go
forward from there.

1059
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,640
Love it.
JD Bloody The new playing

1060
00:55:22,640 --> 00:55:25,200
field's being set by Mineral
Mining Services in Open Pick

1061
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:28,840
Contracting.
I want to And before I say that

1062
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:31,920
I'll be checking out the
underground playing field in

1063
00:55:31,920 --> 00:55:35,680
Adelaide, 7th to 9th of April.
The underground operators.

1064
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:37,200
It's a playing.
Field you want to be 100.

1065
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,760
Bucks off your tickets MOM 100
is the code link of the shy

1066
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:44,280
Knights mate grounded sort out
the bloody camp field bloody

1067
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:49,560
Sandvik ground sport, Loveland
CR insurance, kaydrum, Gerald

1068
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:54,400
Jones and WA water balls swig 70
million meters what Rd. project

1069
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:57,160
engineer and cross boundary
energy and they are the partners

1070
00:55:57,160 --> 00:56:01,080
that bloody love Odoro Odoro say
how quick I'll finish that off

1071
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:02,160
for you.
Like it?

1072
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:06,400
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

1073
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,480
general nature only and does not
take into account the

1074
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:12,080
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

1075
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:14,120
person.
Before making any investment

1076
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:17,200
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

1077
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,320
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

1078
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:22,520
financial situation and needs.