Gold Mania, Niobium Dreams, and Antimony Nightmares (Datt)
In Today’s episode is an across-the-board conversation with Melbourne based fundie Emanuel Datt.
We kick off by hearing how he’s thinking about the excess and frothy behaviour we’re seeing in markets, segueing into gold, gold miners and portfolio construction.
The discussion moves to his long-term bets on high quality companies, including WA1, as well as exploring where rare earths and other niche metals like antimony could go from here.
We cover his views on miners in the tin, silver and PGM space and wrap up the show with a juicy underrated vs overrated debate.
Stocks covered: GMD, VAU, RMS, WGX, MEK, GHM, FRS, GBR, CYL, PDI, SMI, TSO, WA1, ALK, ENR, LYC, MLX, SRZ, HAV, CYM
....………
TIMESTAMPS
(00:00) – Introduction & Market Overview
(05:00) – Market Sentiment & Investment Approaches
(10:00) – Technology, Recovery, and Government Policy
(12:10) – Vault Buyback & Performance
(12:40) – Genesis & Vault: Mid-cap Producers
(13:10) – Meeka Metals: Ramp-up & Value
(20:00) – Portfolio Strategies & Gold Allocation
(24:50) – Predictive Discovery: West Africa Focus
(28:50) – WA1: Portfolio Role & Asset Quality
(32:40) – WA1: Development, Deals & Strategy
(38:10) – WA1: Exploration & Industry Comparison
(43:00) – Meeka: Deal Potential & Market Cap
(46:40) – Metals X: Tin Exposure & Company Strategy
(50:00) – Niche Metals, Juniors, and Closing Thoughts
……………
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PARTNERS
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DISCLAIMER
All information in this podcast is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. Please ensure you read our full disclaimer.
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We're sort of a firm that really
values the optionality of
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holding cash and limiting your
market exposure.
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It's very rare that we've
invested, you know, even a high
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90% basis.
So we tend to be pretty cash
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heavy.
I, I reckon we like what you
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were saying there, Manny, let's,
let's jump in with everything
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that's happening in, in the
market right now.
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It's just, it's just bonkers.
It's, it's crazy.
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There's so much to to see and do
and read and, and keep up to
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speed with.
So how, how, how are you sort of
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feeling about the markets at the
moment?
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Yeah, I think markets have been
incredibly strong and in true
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sort of risk off risk on mode I
should say.
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And and yeah, it just feels like
there's a real sort of flight to
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being long assets, not not only
in commodities, but across the
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spectrum, I would say.
And a lot of that is of course
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driven by, yeah, very
accommodative US monetary
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policy.
And yeah, well, it's great to to
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see, you know, to, to, to see
market so buoyant.
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Yeah, after some years of, you
know, being not so buoyant,
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especially in the commodity
space.
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Are you feeling pretty
preoccupied with the with the
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macro environment at the moment
and then just trying to trying
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to break down and do your
research on on the company
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specifically as much as you can
too?
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Yeah, absolutely.
So I think the, you know, it
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reminds me of, you know, years
past in many ways.
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And I think that, you know, when
I think back, this reminds me a
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lot of, let's call it the years
2006 and 2007 where which was
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truly sort of in, in risk on
mode across all asset classes,
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even things like, you know,
metals technology that we've
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seen so much of and defense
stocks ripping so hard.
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You know, it truly feels like,
you know, history's rhyming here
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in some degree, but it it you,
you really as an active sort of
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investor, you've actually got to
be very careful about being
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overly bullish.
You know, you can make a hell of
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a lot of money in these sort of
environments, which is why we're
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all here.
But you've also got to be
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protect.
Thinking about well, how do I
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get good at liquidity if
required.
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Let's jump into that 2006 seven
analogy a bit a bit deeper.
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What are the other sort of
things that that ring sort of
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similar?
I think that I always recall at
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the time we had disruptions in
uranium supply at that stage.
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Today we're seeing sort of this
a similar sort of dynamic in
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copper.
Most prominently I'd say we've
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seen, you know, I think it was
Grasberg, you know, an accident
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there that that looks like it'll
affect production over the in,
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in just in the last few days.
Then we've also got a number of
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other very, you know, globally
significant mines that are, you
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know, producing at lower levels
than anticipated.
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So it's a similar sort of setup
in, in that respect.
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And you know, I, I think also,
you know, things like, you know,
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new and novel methods of metal
recovery.
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That was something that was
actually very, you know, popular
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back in 2000 and six, 2007 and
this.
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Is before our times you got
Yeah, like I'm so curious about
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this because I know history
repeats and it looks like
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similar but different.
But that is absolutely a theme
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at the moment is is yeah.
The kind of hype around new
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technologies that can that can
come in lower on the cost curve
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for some niche metal or multiple
metals.
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And these stocks are the flavour
of the month.
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They fly.
They don't have to prove
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anything just yet.
They just need some contract or
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or government support to say
that they they might work.
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Yeah, that's absolutely right.
And, you know, just that metal
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recovery angle is something that
has become, so, you know, it
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seems like it's very
strategically important,
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particularly for, you know, the
US sort of supply chains.
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Back in O6O7, it was, you know,
the same sort of thing.
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It was more sort of to do with
tailings recovery and, you know,
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other sort of, you know, SEC
resources or technology
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breakthroughs.
I don't think any of those
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companies ever were successful
incidentally, but you know,
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tech, techno technology has
advanced since then.
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So you just never know, right,
with these things what might
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come about.
You know, investors have clearly
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bit up a whole range of stocks
in this sector because they want
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to have exposure.
Should you know these various
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forms of technology trans last
be able to scale up and achieve,
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you know, a commercial size,
which is going to be a tough
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job?
You know, it's not not a given
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that.
And that's what I've learned
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from experience, yeah.
I'm so curious, I'm so curious
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if you how you interpret those
like, yeah, investment
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opportunities.
Do you still participate on the
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premise of like, OK, I can see
there's going to be hype.
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I can see that there's going to
be, you know, retail interest.
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I can see that there's going to
be a rewrite on these things
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alone.
I'll get in and get out.
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Or do you just, do you just sit
on the sidelines?
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We tend to sit on the sidelines.
I think a lot of that ultimately
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comes down to experience.
It's like, you know, it's almost
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like you, you can often make a
lot of money by being naive,
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which is what I, what happened
to me basically, you know, 06/07
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and but you know, you, you have
to be very conscious of that.
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You know, you couldn't buy the
ticket, take the ride, but
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you've got to have a very
clearview of when you're going
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to get off the bus Ultimately in
you know me today.
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I think that we're not you know,
we're we're we're more
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disciplined, I guess, than than
I was in the past in investing
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in these sort of technologies
and, you know, having having
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scars from from the previous
experience.
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That's definitely sort of made
me a lot more sceptical of
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so-called claimed technological
breakthroughs and new processes
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and all the rest If.
If we think about the government
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intervention as opposed just to
the quote UN quote tech
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breakthroughs, how do you think
that actually permanently or at
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least in the medium term changes
the the playing field for
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commodities?
I think that ultimately it
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depends a lot depends on whether
these, you know, breakthroughs
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actually work in the medium
term.
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I, I believe that, you know,
recovering secondary sources of
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metal, if you would rather than
primary is always going to be a
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harder sort of task to do just
purely because to recover
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primary metals from ores, it's
basically, you know, a lot
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cheaper to do.
And it doesn't come with the
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same sort of logistical issues.
And the number of counterparties
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that you need to deal with in
let's call it, you know,
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sourcing circuit stock, circuit
board feedstock, for instance.
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There's a lot of hoops to jump
through just to secure the
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supply.
Whereas with primary metal
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recovery, you're typically
dealing with only a couple of
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authorities, if you would, and
from a single source, right?
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That's just what I how I view
things from from the top down
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and through a very, you know,
practical common sense approach,
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right?
Yeah, one of the the, the points
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you're going to, you know, hit
on, hit on earlier was just
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having, having the ability to
have liquidity when you know,
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when, when things kind of fizzle
from go from froth to fizzle.
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I for you, does that just look
like a substantial defensive
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positioning in gold stocks or or
more liquidity or like what,
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what, what, how do you think
about that part?
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Yeah, sure.
So I guess at the portfolio
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level, I we're sort of a firm
that really values the
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optionality of holding cash and
limiting your market exposure.
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It's very rare that we're, we're
sort of invested on a, on, you
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know, even a high 90% basis.
So we tend to be pretty cash
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heavy.
We're probably fairly cash heavy
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at the moment.
You know, we're probably holding
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about 20% cash.
But you know, pleasingly we've
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been able to sort of keep up
with the broader market despite
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having, you know, sort of low
market exposure.
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And you know, if, if things go
South quickly, we'll be in a
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really good position.
So that's where you really make
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your money by buying well when
everyone else is a for seller.
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So that sort of philosophy has
worked really well for us over
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many years.
So part of that keeping up with
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the market has been your
allocation to gold, which you've
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done really well in.
And we've spoken about this over
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the years, but things really
accelerated recently.
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How are you thinking about it?
Like right right here right now
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about your allocation?
Yeah, sure.
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So I think that Gold has just
had a fantastic run.
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You know, there's been so much
demand that's basically been
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pushing up spot prices.
And I read a really interesting
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observation just in this last
week and it was just comparing
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the, the sort of weight of
capital and the number of tons
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00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:07,480
being bought on the gold market
by passive ETFs relative to
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central banks.
And it was just enormous, the
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sort of passive flow that's
coming that appears to be coming
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into, you know, gold ETFs.
So, you know, perhaps this
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strong gold price performance is
actually being driven by greater
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awareness, you know, from means
from investors that are, well,
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maybe we need to have, you know,
a small like 2 or 5% position
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00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,400
allocated to gold in our
portfolios.
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So that's pretty exciting, I
would say, because, you know,
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central bank bank buying, it's
such a black box, right?
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You just never know what may
happen despite, despite, you
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know, long term strategic plans
and, and rhetoric, if you would
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from, from the major central
governments.
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But you know, what if you have
sort of embedded in the
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mainstream investor psyche that
oh, well, maybe My Portfolio
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00:11:07,560 --> 00:11:11,360
does need to have a 5% gold
allocation, the upside is
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actually significantly more or
could be significantly more in
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terms of future gold, gold price
upside.
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But you know, saying that I'm
not a gold permeable by any
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means, but, and you know, there
are other asset classes to
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invest in, you know, in, you
know, what's clearly an age of
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financial vization and and
debasement of of currencies
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worldwide, right?
Doesn't doesn't necessarily
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matter what the asset is, as
long as it's, you know,
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something like a hard asset and
is recognized by other investors
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as having value, then those are
the assets you want to be long.
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And everything else is sort of
all the all this, you know,
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punchier stuff on that we
mentioned is really what would
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you call it?
Yeah, it's an ancillary effect.
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That's that's how I view it.
The within the the, the gold
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kind of you know, part of part
of the, you know, the hard asset
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equation.
Today's underperformer is
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tomorrow's outperformer.
It it appears with the gold
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names like for example, Volk
since just announcing A buyback
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up 55% in the space of like a
matter of weeks.
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Truly remarkable that that,
that, that, that happens and
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they were one of the the
underperformers before then
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where, where are you seeing
relative value in the producers?
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We had exposure to sort of a
broad suite of those midcap
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producers like Bolt and Genesis
from Elias.
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All the rest of them, I think
that they've had incredible
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performance in in recent times
as you pointed out.
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So I guess you know, the the
problem for the the sort of
203
00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:01,760
challenge for us is that where
is the value now that these have
204
00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,840
become the multiples have
increased, they've become
205
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,000
probably more fairly valued than
they were, let's call it three
206
00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:12,000
months ago.
And I think that there's a lot
207
00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:17,000
of value in the next or sort of
the smaller producers.
208
00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:21,440
I'm thinking producers like
Meeka Metals, for instance, that
209
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:27,000
are just going through their own
sort of ramp up and they're sort
210
00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,560
of in, you know, the Murchison
belt, which is being sort of a
211
00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:34,200
secondary belt in the in in
recent years.
212
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:39,240
But now we're seeing obviously
production out of companies like
213
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,160
Catalyst and West Gold in that
region.
214
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:48,320
And if you're a producer being
sort of valued at, you know, a
215
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,120
significantly higher multiple
than you were, let's call it six
216
00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:57,080
months ago, how do you capture
or enhance the value in your
217
00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,800
company, right, in, in a way
that's independent of the
218
00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:04,320
commodity price in isolation?
And I think to me, that means
219
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:08,680
that, well, a, the most obvious
way is to secure more oil,
220
00:14:08,680 --> 00:14:14,760
right, and really kick out those
LOMS effectively.
221
00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:19,480
And yeah, so I think that, you
know, in the Murchison in
222
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,680
particular, you've got probably
you've got a a couple of smaller
223
00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,000
producers like Mika.
Then you've got sort of small
224
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,200
companies that are sitting on
deposits that weren't really
225
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,520
considered too valuable, let's
call it, a year ago.
226
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,560
But now all of a sudden the the
equations really change.
227
00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,800
So like the great boulder, you
know, the odysseys of the world
228
00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:46,880
that are that are, yeah, fairly
small, but they hold, you know,
229
00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,720
a valuable sort of resource now,
effectively.
230
00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:55,000
Great bold is very interesting
in the sense that you could
231
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,760
totally understand the value
proposition of the value of
232
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:02,080
those ounces to a nearby meal.
But they, they, they haven't had
233
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:07,200
the same like yeah, share price
rewrite of many of the other
234
00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:10,960
undeveloped projects in the
vicinity.
235
00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:18,640
Yeah, I think that it's, it's
always, you know, it can be
236
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,240
tricky with the small players
because if I mean, they're
237
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,440
obviously they're clearly not
sort of #1 on anyone's list for
238
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:30,000
if if someone wants gold
exposure, full stop, right.
239
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:33,080
So you've re.
So the teams of these sort of
240
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,560
smaller companies really have to
be out on the road and, you
241
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:40,440
know, providing comfort to
investors that they've got a
242
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,360
plan.
The plan has, you know, probably
243
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:48,760
a shorter term sort of range of
catalysts that will add value to
244
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:53,720
shareholders to attract, you
know, the money effectively, you
245
00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:55,520
know, you know, roaring gold
bull market.
246
00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,440
No one wants to be in, you know,
the stock that doesn't move
247
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,600
ultimately.
And that's always the the tricky
248
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:06,080
thing as an investor, right,
That you don't want to be, you
249
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:09,200
know, if you want exposure, you
have to really take a, a
250
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,040
portfolio sort of approach with
it all just to mitigate that
251
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,720
risk.
Now Trav investors might be
252
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:17,840
having a tough time picking
goldies because there's so many
253
00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,760
good ones to pick from, But good
thing for the gold companies
254
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,240
themselves, picking ground
support is easy because there's
255
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,880
only one name to know.
Sandvik ground support.
256
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,640
Sandvik Ground Support product
produced here locally in
257
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:34,000
Kewdale, WA for the whole of WA
and the broader Australian
258
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,160
mining industry.
There's only one name you need
259
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,520
to know in Ground Support, and
that's Sandvik Ground Support.
260
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,400
But I don't think there are
other names in ground support.
261
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,000
No, it's it's Sandvik or it's
Sandvik.
262
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,720
It used to be DSI.
So that that name, that was the.
263
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:49,320
Name.
Yeah, that name still lingers in
264
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:50,160
the memory.
Yeah.
265
00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:51,720
But it it is Sandvik ground
support.
266
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,920
And we, we had the, the
privilege for the money miners.
267
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,440
We did a bit of quality
assurance and quality control
268
00:16:57,440 --> 00:17:00,240
down at the facility a couple
weeks back just to suss out that
269
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,080
what they're doing is the
highest quality work.
270
00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:06,200
And rest assured, it is.
I was super impressed mate.
271
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:09,119
People that work there take a
lot of pride in what they're
272
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:10,520
doing.
They do look at the.
273
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:11,760
Footage we're overlaying right
now.
274
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:13,920
Check that out.
Unreal mate, I was.
275
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,359
What did you learn there?
I learned what the process of
276
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,880
galvanization is like mate and
it is quite special.
277
00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,960
Biggest facility in the southern
hemisphere here locally on the
278
00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,400
outskirts of Perth.
Doing God's work for the mining
279
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,240
industry in Australia.
Mate you need galvanization if
280
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,840
you want to be, you know, just
durable throughout want.
281
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,400
Stuff to last forever.
It kind of does last forever.
282
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,400
That's it. 456 coats.
Just like Sandy, ground support
283
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:41,000
lasts forever in our minds.
Your minds, and you're going to
284
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:42,440
remember them.
When you need Sandy ground
285
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,120
support, go Sandy.
Have you gone all the way down?
286
00:17:45,120 --> 00:17:49,160
I know we'd spit previously
spoken about some real explorers
287
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:51,320
and juniors.
Are you still allocating much to
288
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:56,120
to that end of town?
We do have a very a small
289
00:17:56,120 --> 00:18:02,240
allocation to that I guess sort
of company.
290
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,640
You know, perhaps another belt
that would be good to talk on
291
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:10,440
would be, you know, the Southern
Cross Belt, which is, you know,
292
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,600
you know, once again, it has
been a secondary belt in the
293
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:19,720
past that you've got sort of a
range of juniors, Golden horses,
294
00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:24,160
probably one of the biggest ones
there, and you've got FRS and
295
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,600
TG6 as well.
What the heck is going on with
296
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:28,520
FRS?
This is just what I can't
297
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,080
believe.
It's this company's kind of just
298
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,520
yeah, doing deals.
Every day there's a new deal
299
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:35,760
and.
Yeah, yeah.
300
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:41,040
I don't know like.
I I can't stocks ramped to crazy
301
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,640
on and just seems to be doing a
new deal every day just buying
302
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,120
everything in the vicinity.
Yeah.
303
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,200
Well, well, it really goes,
comes down to the management
304
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:56,160
teams, right, that, you know,
we've seen the new MD there join
305
00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:01,040
in A and in a very short space
of time put put his foot on, you
306
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:06,600
know, what's growing to become
a, you know, a reasonable size
307
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,200
of asset ultimately, you know,
in a gold bull market.
308
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,240
And they've been very aggressive
about it, right.
309
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:15,600
So that that's generally viewed
favourably by investors that,
310
00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:19,480
well, you know, if yeah, if
someone's not just going to sit
311
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,280
on their hands and do nothing,
right, you've got someone who's
312
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:28,000
clearly motivated and aligned
to, to bulking out, you know,
313
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,720
the inventory of the company
itself.
314
00:19:30,120 --> 00:19:33,960
And with with Golden Horse,
yeah.
315
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:37,800
What's the the the core thesis
with with their their portfolio
316
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,880
at this stage?
Do you see it kind of just
317
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:46,040
supporting one of the the nearby
mills in in either the something
318
00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,920
cross operation or or Ramirez's
plant?
319
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,040
Yeah.
I think that, you know, they,
320
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:57,440
they clearly hold a dominant
position in the belt and they've
321
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:02,440
sort of gone about trying to I
guess firm up that resource
322
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,880
base, which they seem to be
doing reasonably successfully.
323
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,240
I'd say there's still, you know,
some way to go though.
324
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,480
I think that, you know, could
they be a stand alone?
325
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,480
What the standalone, yeah, how
how big the standalone need to
326
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,240
be in this gold price
environment?
327
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,040
That's what I my first thought
is previously, you know, it was
328
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:27,160
1,000,000 oz, but you know,
could it be lower?
329
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,000
I think it could be.
But then, you know, how do you
330
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,960
ultimately, let's just say you
can get yeah, milling capacity
331
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,840
or buy a plant or whatever it
is.
332
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,880
How does that look and how can
it be supported?
333
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:45,160
So there's a few different
factors there, but what we like
334
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:50,600
about the company is that, you
know, the land position is, is
335
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:54,440
significant and that's going to
be of significant value, you
336
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:56,680
know, ultimately.
And and they've been sort of,
337
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,480
you know, grilling successfully
for, for, you know, some time
338
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:07,320
now and they still seem to be
sort of fairly under owned, I
339
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:12,280
would say purely just because
they've obviously just shifted
340
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,440
across the ASX whereas from
from, from the DSX listing that
341
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,920
they were on in the past.
Yeah.
342
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,120
Another belt that I know you had
some some exposure to in the
343
00:21:25,120 --> 00:21:31,640
past was the great Yandel belt
fire the company Yandel who
344
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,200
who's yeah had had a bit of a
run in the the last couple of
345
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:39,200
days on the on the back of Yeah,
yeah, proving up your car's
346
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:42,640
discovery.
Are you, are you, you still
347
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,400
pretty buoyant about the the
outlook for for Yandel?
348
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,920
I think the latest results out
of the ruckus were interesting.
349
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:56,600
I think that it shows that there
is some level of continuity
350
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,720
there.
And whether it is sort of very
351
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:06,040
early days there, I would say
still, you know, it's going to
352
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:10,920
take time, effort, money, all
the rest of it to, to really
353
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:16,600
sort of determine if Iraq is, is
a economic resource.
354
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,760
And yeah, I, I think that, you
know, they've got, they've got a
355
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,560
good team, they've got, you
know, a reasonable amount of
356
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:30,160
funding for my understanding
and, you know, a good register.
357
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,080
So are.
You worried about that register
358
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:37,200
component with with gold gold,
yeah now gold fields effectively
359
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:43,520
owning a a stake which yeah
could could could be could be
360
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,520
monetized that previously where
gold red row supporter.
361
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,360
Yeah, Yeah.
I think that.
362
00:22:48,360 --> 00:22:53,560
Look, I think that to me, it
makes sense that Gold Fields may
363
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,000
divest if someone, yeah, comes
knocking the door looking for
364
00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,960
stock, then it's really, yeah,
not at their sort of scale as
365
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,880
yet.
It could, you know, still get to
366
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,040
be proven.
But yeah, you know, I think
367
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:10,560
that, you know, it's, it's been
such a prospective belt over
368
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:16,320
many years that it, it, it's,
it's difficult to say, you know,
369
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,280
I'll predict the future with
these things, but, you know,
370
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,080
great sort of.
It's all about location, right?
371
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:26,520
And they they put in a great
location and it's just going to
372
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:29,720
take time and effort and money
to, to determine if there's
373
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,640
anything worth finding there.
Manny, if we, if we zoom out for
374
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,520
a moment, how do you actually
think about the, the portfolio
375
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,960
allocation to gold and how you
sort of size the positions for
376
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,120
all the companies we've we've
just mentioned in amongst your
377
00:23:42,120 --> 00:23:44,520
broader portfolio?
Yeah, sure.
378
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:50,240
So I think that, you know,
obviously with supporting
379
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:54,680
explorers, you've got to be
conscious about how much or how
380
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,520
large a size you're willing to
run in your portfolio.
381
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:02,640
So for a junior will typically
be yeah, fairly small.
382
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:09,160
I would say probably like sub
sub 3 or 4% is probably yeah,
383
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:15,560
where we top out from a
portfolio level, whereas you can
384
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:20,160
take more risk sort of the, the
further you get all the closer
385
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,120
you get to producer.
So you know, development
386
00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:27,280
companies, we'd be happy to
take, I don't know, 5 or 6%
387
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,920
producers.
You might go up to, you know, 7
388
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,320
or so percent, seven 8%.
Just just really horses for
389
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,880
courses and and what you're
actually trying to capture.
390
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,400
Yeah, from a portfolio
perspective.
391
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,320
Yeah, Yeah.
There's actually one more
392
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,920
individual, Goldie, that I
wanted to chat with you about,
393
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,120
Manny and I know you've spoken
about it in the past.
394
00:24:47,120 --> 00:24:50,240
It was predictive discovery over
in in West Africa.
395
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,720
You still long that one.
No, we are not.
396
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,680
And that was a sort of a very
conscious effort, oh conscious
397
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:05,240
decision, I should say, to to
trim African gold stocks
398
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,240
thankfully just before things
got a bit dicey.
399
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,960
And the way I thought about that
is that, you know, you see great
400
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:19,120
asset assets like PDI and WAFF
was one of our exposures in the
401
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:23,240
past.
And one thing that's not often
402
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:29,280
thought about is that, you know,
as gold prices RIP in
403
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:35,000
jurisdictions with, you know,
weak rule of law, if you would,
404
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:41,040
that's when these assets become
increasingly attractive for
405
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:46,080
governments to, you know, put
their foot on or, you know,
406
00:25:46,120 --> 00:25:50,080
nationalize or get involved and
just be a disruption basically
407
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:54,160
to to the assets owner.
And, you know, we've seen that
408
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:59,480
play out in with WAFF, you know,
and there's not too much you can
409
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,520
really do about it,
unfortunately.
410
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,960
We've seen other instances like
Kingsgate, KCN, you know, where
411
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:10,520
the Thai government basically
tried to nationalize their mind
412
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,120
and it took many years to
resolve, right.
413
00:26:13,120 --> 00:26:21,360
And they, they managed to sort
of thankfully, you know, get,
414
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,640
get control back of the asset
and seem to be, you know, doing
415
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,920
quite well these days.
But you know, that's a real sort
416
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,000
of risk when you're investing
overseas.
417
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,800
So I think about, you know, you
see development projects that
418
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,760
actually really they, they seem
to be really sound like Tesoro
419
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:46,600
is what I can think of or
Santana Tesoro's in Chile, which
420
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,560
is a sort of, you know, a well
recognized mining jurisdiction.
421
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:56,200
But you, you see the presence of
majors and the ability to do
422
00:26:56,200 --> 00:27:00,000
business there.
It it's a lot lower risk than
423
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,360
Africa and and Santana that I
mentioned is New Zealand, so
424
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:06,920
almost like Australia, but comes
with its own sort of almost
425
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:12,920
risks almost, Yeah.
So, so these are sort of, if I'm
426
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,560
going to invest in a developer,
these are probably the sort of
427
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,800
assets that I'd rather have
exposure to than APDI, right,
428
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:24,760
which is probably in a, in a
spicy jurisdiction in my view.
429
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:29,400
Makes sense.
The I am kind of curious like if
430
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:34,240
you were like of all of the
types of commodities, like all
431
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,960
of the commodities out there
right now, like on a if the if
432
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,760
the asset quality was was all
the same, like what would you
433
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:44,280
most be tempted to allocate
towards kind of right now if
434
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:51,400
every opportunity was equal?
It just really depends on your
435
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,840
time, on your duration, I guess
your investment horizon.
436
00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:01,360
I think that gold can continue
to be pretty provide punchy
437
00:28:01,360 --> 00:28:05,680
returns in the short term.
But you know, over the over sort
438
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,640
of the medium term and onwards,
that's when you really have to
439
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:12,960
think about, well, where's
what's the demand going to be
440
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,200
for your house, technology going
to progress, what does the world
441
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:22,280
need, etcetera.
And that's when you know, you
442
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:27,840
come back to things like copper
that's obviously, you know, it's
443
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,520
sort of mineral that's hard to
find in in good quantities and
444
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,000
in good resources.
But then you have things like
445
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,160
niobium that are clearly going
to be extremely important to
446
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:43,200
future technology and material
science and all the rest of it.
447
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:47,160
So.
You've you've had a layup to
448
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:51,800
talk about WA 1 Ding Ding, Ding,
Ding, Ding.
449
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,560
You've ever had a conversation
with you where we don't talk
450
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:58,480
about WAY It's been a a name
stay of your portfolio and of
451
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,280
you, yeah, your fun's
performance, of course.
452
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:06,880
But yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's
really interesting to watch the
453
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,920
consistency of, of your, your
support kind of, you know,
454
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,920
through, through what is an
orphan period in the, in the
455
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,160
Lisson curve.
Are you, are you a believer that
456
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,720
the Lausanne curve kind of
doesn't, doesn't matter when you
457
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:25,400
have the asset quality?
I think it matters irrespective.
458
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,480
I think we saw, we've, I mean
we've obviously seen WA 1 trade,
459
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:34,480
you know, almost I think the
peak was about 22 or 23 bucks at
460
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:39,720
one stage and you know, it
pretty much halved from there
461
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:44,880
and has come back quite, quite
strongly now that they've de
462
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:49,800
risked their funding etcetera.
And look, you know, I think my
463
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,880
views are, are very clear on,
you know, just the absolute
464
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:58,840
Unicorn quality of this oil
deposit and that's only
465
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,440
strengthened over time.
Like we've seen catalysts like
466
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:09,480
the ability to, to produce
niobium oxide from the deposit
467
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:14,800
itself, which is just, it's an
enormous, you know, breakthrough
468
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:16,800
and one that was totally
unexpected.
469
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,200
I thought that will take him,
you know, two or three years at
470
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,920
least.
But it just happened, right?
471
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:29,880
And that to me, it, it really
demonstrates how great a quality
472
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:34,400
this this resource is.
And but, you know, these things
473
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:36,440
only get more valuable over
time, right?
474
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,320
And they haven't even defined
the extent of the resource.
475
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:45,280
So that's, you know, one of
those problems that you just
476
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:51,280
said and forget and come back in
10 years and yeah, just just has
477
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,080
all the, you know, factors that
we love.
478
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:58,800
And all we need is a Department
of Defence contract right from
479
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:03,560
the US.
So hopefully the the team
480
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,000
working on that.
Do you, do you think something
481
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,440
like that is, is likely?
Like do you think it it, it
482
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,320
lends itself to a, a, a, you
know, a strategic, you know,
483
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,880
deal with all of the, the US
activity at the moment?
484
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,480
Yeah, well, look, it's only,
it's, it's going to be the
485
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:25,040
world's only producing niobium
asset with no Chinese ownership,
486
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:28,160
right?
And that's a that's a, you know,
487
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,200
it's just flambergasting when
you think about it, right, that
488
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:40,880
every single producing niobium
mine on earth has, you know,
489
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,120
Chinese owner owner in the
ownership structure itself.
490
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,040
This is the one that's only, you
know, it's the the the
491
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,920
jurisdiction, the ownership
structure, everything sort of
492
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,640
speaks for itself.
So that makes it highly
493
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:58,120
strategic in its own right that,
you know, reminds me of little
494
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:04,800
made this analogy for that Linus
and the highly strategic nature
495
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,360
and value in in the resource
itself.
496
00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:11,440
So I view this as being, you
know, an analogy, but you know,
497
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:15,280
if not better because rare airs
are hard to deal with as as we
498
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,920
all know.
But they seem to have really
499
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:23,800
been able to sort of crack the
niobium recovery for this all
500
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,120
deposits.
So all really exciting.
501
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,160
Yeah, over, over the medium
term.
502
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,680
I'm super excited to to talk
about Linus, but a couple more
503
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:35,640
on, on WA one first, when do you
think the, the timing would make
504
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:37,760
sense for an arrangement like
this?
505
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,840
Like we are still relatively
early in the, the discovery,
506
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,760
understanding and study process
of WA 1.
507
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:48,840
So how do you think about that,
that evolution and when joint
508
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,160
ventures with, you know, be it
government or major strategics
509
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,480
make sense?
Yeah, it's a good question.
510
00:32:56,520 --> 00:33:03,960
I would probably intuitively say
that it would probably be post
511
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,640
studies.
I would say, I think the
512
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:12,400
challenge is with this resource
is just so tremendously huge,
513
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:17,480
over 200 million tons.
It's sort of a major sized
514
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,000
asset.
So that means it'll have
515
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,160
probably a longer time frame
than if it was just like a yeah,
516
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:29,360
little numb 20 million ton, you
know, resource that that was
517
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,120
constrained.
But you know, I think that that
518
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:38,800
does kick out the the time frame
somewhat, but it only increases
519
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,280
the value, right?
As as we've talked about, like
520
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,360
life of mine isn't going to be a
problem.
521
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,200
This will, this is some an asset
that will be producing longer
522
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:53,640
than any of our lifetimes,
right, ultimately and true, true
523
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,400
sort of multi generational
assets.
524
00:33:55,400 --> 00:34:00,960
So you know, I, I think that as
a shareholder, yeah, I'm happy
525
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,720
to let the team do things the
right way and take their time.
526
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,719
And that's ultimately going to
be a benefit to all shareholders
527
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:13,080
and the nation as well, right?
How do you think about the the
528
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,120
neighboring encounter, which
which is has now demonstrated
529
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,239
that they, you know, they have
high grade diobium themselves?
530
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,280
Would would you prefer to see
some form of, of consolidation
531
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,600
so that there's like we know,
11X China champion and you don't
532
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,520
have the, you know, maybe extra
supply come on to the market
533
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,480
that would be in a very small
market.
534
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,320
Like would you prefer to see
consolidation in due course
535
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:38,159
there or or are you sort of you
kind of just happy for for you
536
00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:40,239
know, things to run their course
if there are if there are two
537
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,719
players?
Yeah.
538
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:45,000
I don't think Encounter have a
commercial resource or an
539
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:49,159
economic resource at the moment.
I think a lot of it comes down
540
00:34:49,159 --> 00:34:53,679
to the, you know, the difference
in methodology.
541
00:34:53,679 --> 00:34:59,280
So you know, Encounter have
obviously made a resource
542
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,520
estimate primarily off air core
drilling very widely spaced.
543
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:08,000
So there's a lot of what I'd
call inference of what the
544
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,920
resource is.
So it's a it's a much lower sort
545
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,600
of con confidence estimate, but
it's also, you know,
546
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,240
significantly smaller than what
WA one have.
547
00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:24,560
And I think probably another
sort of small pet peeve I have
548
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:29,120
is that they haven't sort of
disclosed the multi, the full
549
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,480
multi elemental suite in the
assays itself.
550
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,040
So I don't know if they're, you
know, if they're always
551
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,560
radioactive, for instance, if
they're elevated, sorry, more
552
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:44,200
uranium results in there, who
knows, right.
553
00:35:45,720 --> 00:35:51,840
So that to me sort of, you know,
downgrades the project or makes
554
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,720
it sort of less likely that it
is a commercial proposition if
555
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,840
if the company are not
comfortable disclosing, making
556
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,520
disclosures.
So, yeah, I don't think that
557
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:06,800
consolidation is necessary,
especially when you've got, you
558
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:10,320
know, an oil deposit that.
That is, yeah, it's an
559
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:11,800
interesting one to sort of
follow.
560
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,840
And yeah, they, they continue to
come out with bits and pieces
561
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,360
of, of results.
But the yeah, the the neurology
562
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:22,640
type plays and people jumping on
the niobium bandwagon as well is
563
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:27,000
not just limited to, to the
companies surrounding WA 1.
564
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,080
We're starting to see it more
and more across the world and in
565
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,000
in Brazil and in parts of Africa
as well.
566
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:33,040
So it's something to kind of
follow.
567
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:34,640
I don't.
Know now it's now it's antimony
568
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,800
neurology.
That one's taken off.
569
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,440
It's just.
MP materials Neurology.
570
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,360
Now that's.
The that's right.
571
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,240
And I think that look, you know,
and and you know, just to be
572
00:36:44,240 --> 00:36:48,000
clear, I think encounter do hold
some great ground, but I think
573
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:53,600
that niobium was the flavour of
the month right at the time of
574
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:57,560
the discovery.
And they've obviously defined
575
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,320
some sort of resource.
But, you know, I like their
576
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,280
copper ground, for instance,
Encounter.
577
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,080
And I've always tell them that
don't talk about Nairobi.
578
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:06,360
I don't know about your copper
stuff.
579
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,800
And, you know, they seem to be
having some success there.
580
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:14,680
So, you know, I hope they do
find a big copper discovery in
581
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,080
the Western Runton.
And I mean, ultimately it all
582
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:19,560
comes down to infrastructure,
right?
583
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:24,000
This is such a remote part of
the world, but the potential for
584
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:28,280
big discoveries are so
significant, I do expect
585
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,600
there'll be more discoveries
bounty over time.
586
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:36,360
And you can see, you know that
in yeah, other other small
587
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,200
juniors, right, like Tarly
resources that are sort of the
588
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:43,240
little little brother or
considered the little brother of
589
00:37:43,240 --> 00:37:47,360
WA one, but further to the South
there.
590
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:52,880
And yeah, I think that look,
these sort of propositions,
591
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:57,600
yeah, in terms of like encounter
entirely they're they're sort of
592
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:02,280
high risk, high reward.
And you know, the return profile
593
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,720
is is very and and nature of the
company is very different from,
594
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:12,520
you know WA one for instance.
The the elusive IOCG deposit was
595
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:14,600
what WA one were were hunting
for.
596
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:19,320
After all, if we if we jump onto
Linus now, Manny, what do you
597
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,280
think they're going to buy with
with all that money?
598
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:32,120
Oh, that's a good question.
I think that it feels like Eluka
599
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:35,720
are putting their foot on a lot
of resources and trying to sort
600
00:38:35,720 --> 00:38:39,600
of get that feedstock for for
the rare earth refinery that
601
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:43,440
they're building in in WA.
What Linus do?
602
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:47,800
I think that Linus will probably
become more US centric given
603
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,360
that's where the market is at
the moment.
604
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:57,040
As you said, the MP metals deal,
they also had an agreement there
605
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:03,120
for, you know, a heavy reverse
recovery plant that they
606
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:04,920
announced, I think two or three
years ago.
607
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,840
So I think that that Linus
business will become
608
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:14,400
increasingly more US focused or
yeah, try and try and crack that
609
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:19,320
sort of, you know, supplying the
US given, you know, the clear
610
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:24,000
push towards re reinsuring to
the US.
611
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:28,560
So that's my sort of opinion and
what I think makes sense.
612
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,240
Yeah.
Very interesting.
613
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:37,520
I, what I, I feel like I've,
I've ages ago read your tweet
614
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,320
about antimony, maybe when it
was just like just kind of
615
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,520
becoming flavour of the month,
you know, like 18 months ago or
616
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,000
something.
And the persistence in, in the,
617
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:50,160
the, the retail interest and
attention in, in an antimony.
618
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:51,800
Maybe it was you that coined
antimony.
619
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,080
It might have been the first
time I've ever read.
620
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:55,920
Antimony.
I thought that was hilarious so.
621
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:59,640
Yeah.
Yeah, I'm kind of just like keen
622
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:05,080
to to, to peel into your views
on anti money or antimony.
623
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,760
Yeah, yeah, well, I should have
called it pro money because
624
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:12,960
going so well that was clearly
wrong there.
625
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:20,080
But yeah, look, I think Ant
antimony is, you know, just it's
626
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,960
a niche metal that is, you know,
the the, you know, highly
627
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:29,560
concentrated yeah in in Chinese
hands and and the industry
628
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,160
absolutely controlled by by the
Chinese smelters.
629
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:38,560
I think that, you know, I think
from my observation there,
630
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,480
there's a a lot of antimony
around it.
631
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:46,440
But you know, to really
commercialize these deposits,
632
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:50,840
it's hard work.
And look, it's, it's going to be
633
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:53,240
you.
You can't just develop an
634
00:40:53,240 --> 00:40:55,440
industry overnight or in a very
short time.
635
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,800
That's my sort of feel about it.
So I think that, you know, it'll
636
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,200
take a very long.
Yeah, it'll only happen over a
637
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:07,440
very long time period, you know,
like and I'm going back to Linus
638
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:13,640
again because, you know, Linus's
view was was to basically
639
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:18,040
provide an ex Chinese, you know,
source of rare earths and to try
640
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:19,720
and break the stranglehold in
the industry.
641
00:41:20,280 --> 00:41:24,920
You know, I look at it today,
Linus probably have about, you
642
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:29,320
know, 10% of production in
production globally or
643
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:33,600
thereabouts.
But you know, all the separation
644
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,440
is still controlled by Chinese.
So sure, they've made a small
645
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:40,360
impact in one part of the supply
chain, but not so much in sort
646
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:45,680
of the downstream separation.
So I think that despite, you
647
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:52,040
know, the move towards antinomy
that it's going to be a tough
648
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:56,360
nut to crack, you know, in terms
of supply or encouraging that
649
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,000
diversity of supply I should
say.
650
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,800
It's funny looking about all the
the explorers and juniors
651
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,320
hunting down and you think of a
company like Alkane that
652
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:09,360
actually produces in Victoria
Antimony and they're not getting
653
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:12,480
any of the the the rub of the
grain for it, despite actually
654
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,680
producing some of the stuff.
They've actually they've,
655
00:42:15,240 --> 00:42:17,920
they've had a big rewrite off of
the back of the completion of
656
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:18,960
the Mandalay.
It's.
657
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,280
Done super well, yeah, but.
It but it wasn't it wasn't
658
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:25,600
immediate, you know, it was
yeah, like, yeah, that was that
659
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,200
was kind of like a no brainer in
the in the the whole merit of
660
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:33,120
the deal was scale for index.
And that's exactly what
661
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,560
happened, right?
Yeah, absolutely.
662
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,400
And I think that, you know,
we've seen a number I guess of
663
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:42,640
these transactions just to, you
know, bulk up to get an index
664
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,640
inclusion.
So it really does sort of
665
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,400
demonstrate, right, how
important these passive flows
666
00:42:49,720 --> 00:42:53,120
are becoming not only at the
company level, but at the
667
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:54,920
commodity level itself, right.
So it.
668
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:59,440
Probably underpins maybe like
the appeal of the the type of
669
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,880
company that is just below the
threshold, like you mentioned,
670
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:06,120
make it before, right, But like
if make your mind naturally
671
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,480
rewrite as they ramp up in in
the likes.
672
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:11,480
But there's, there's also like
pretty obvious merit for them
673
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:15,080
to, you know, to, to do a deal
with, with someone who's like a
674
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,880
$200 million market cap or, or
the likes and then.
675
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:21,680
Yeah, Yeah.
Well, you know, if you're a
676
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:25,560
catalyst, let's say that you
know, have been good at cutting
677
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:31,320
deals and you know, they're
they're right next door and you
678
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:36,400
know they could do with another,
you know, 60,000 odd ounces to
679
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,560
the portfolio, you know, next
next door to the Plutonic
680
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:43,480
operation for instance.
So that they're very and
681
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:47,840
they're, you know, multiples of
Meeka's market cap on, you know,
682
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,840
a larger production base.
But that's very, yeah, a very
683
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,880
obvious sort of candidate,
right, that I would expect.
684
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,840
Yeah, yeah, companies of nature
rather than.
685
00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:03,280
And I think that those sort of
transactions in terms of, yeah,
686
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,960
larger companies buying smaller
companies is probably the way
687
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:11,840
I'm sort of seeing things
playing out rather than rather
688
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:18,680
than, you know, consolidation
of, you know, of small companies
689
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,200
like the Alkane Mandalay merger
that you discussed.
690
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,280
It's probably going to be more,
you know, big fish eat little
691
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,600
fish.
At this stage, I'd say if.
692
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,960
If we think about the other
inflation hedges and companies
693
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,040
that have done well for this
sort of same type narrative,
694
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,080
Silver Springs to mind.
Have you got any exposure to
695
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:37,640
silver?
Many.
696
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:43,440
No, because I think that just
the, I mean our last one was
697
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:46,760
Adriatic that is obviously part
of Dundee now.
698
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:54,600
And look, I'd probably say, you
know, the junior silverspace in
699
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,400
the ASX, you know, it's, it's a
pretty bare covered, right,
700
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:02,560
because just by the nature of
you know, the, the low value
701
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,560
nature, I guess of these
deposits, right.
702
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:09,880
And sure, they've become higher
value over the past year or so.
703
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:14,520
Platinum, Palladium, PGM's,
they're, they're a bit of a
704
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,560
flight, you know, like we're,
we're interested in them.
705
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,080
The, the, the rhetoric is, is
interesting.
706
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:22,200
Platinum's just best performer
year to date.
707
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,920
Have you been exposed to to that
as a real asset?
708
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:30,520
No, not at all.
I none of the Platinum or PGS or
709
00:45:30,720 --> 00:45:34,800
anything like that, but it
really does sort of sort of
710
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:40,040
exemplify right, that the rush
towards any sort of hard asset
711
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:44,080
and I don't know how like I
don't, I'm not obviously not APG
712
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,840
or platinum expert, but I just
often wonder about what the
713
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:51,240
supply and demand dynamics are,
you know, what the justification
714
00:45:51,240 --> 00:45:55,680
behind, you know, the price
rises has been from, you know,
715
00:45:55,720 --> 00:45:57,960
metals that are fairly niche in
nature.
716
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,200
Yeah.
Well, that, that's actually
717
00:46:01,240 --> 00:46:04,640
really interesting point of
discussion because what we, one
718
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:07,760
thing we did here was like
there's been absolute plethora
719
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:11,840
of new, like new traders setting
up precious metals trading
720
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,600
desks.
And whenever that does happen,
721
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,840
there's, there's often like some
short term, yeah, like like
722
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,560
price, price squeezes in in a
smaller, smaller market.
723
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:26,440
So can might be able to explain
some of the, the, the health of
724
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,520
the, the prices in those metals.
Yeah.
725
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,600
Yeah, yeah.
If we keep going with the the
726
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:35,080
niche metal run around, we've
spoken in the past many about
727
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,920
metals.
XI believe you're you're you're
728
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,280
still a holder and that's
obviously one of only two
729
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:44,000
western ways to to get exposure.
But the tin narrative has been
730
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,960
fascinating the the last year.
Where are you sort of placed in
731
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,080
that and and thinking about it
going forward from here?
732
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,320
Yeah, sure.
So I think that tin is only a
733
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:59,920
small part of our portfolio in
Metals X And yeah, look, it's
734
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:07,360
one of those that I don't think
the supply and demand dynamic
735
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:12,000
has changed, you know, by
materially I would say.
736
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:17,040
And it just seems to be driven
more by, you know, this flight
737
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:20,600
towards miners than actually
producing cash, right.
738
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:24,760
And Metals X has been a value
plane for for a long time.
739
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:29,320
So I'm not surprised by, you
know, the recent uptick in in
740
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:33,680
the company's value.
And you know, we just hope the
741
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,280
management team, yeah, they've,
they've obviously gone out in,
742
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:43,160
in recent times to put their
foot on various tin or other
743
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,160
sort of development tin
development assets, which I
744
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:50,720
think really does show what the
expectation is, right.
745
00:47:50,720 --> 00:47:53,840
In the coming years.
They're hoping or probably
746
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:58,360
expecting not want to be well
placed for a time, you know,
747
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,480
when in the future when, you
know, perhaps tin suppliers are
748
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,400
more constrained and they can
probably capture a lot more
749
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:08,800
upside assuming that that falls
to yeah or pushes up the tin
750
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,880
price.
So that's when these sort of
751
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:15,160
fairly marginal deposits and
projects become probably quite
752
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,960
attractive in a higher price
environment at some stage in the
753
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,360
future.
Totally, totally.
754
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:25,880
Yeah.
The in the, in the copper world,
755
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:30,560
there's just a real like
there's, so there's so limited
756
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,040
bite sized opportunities or
like, you know, copper
757
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:37,560
developers that are investable
for, for geologic reasons.
758
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:42,120
But I, you know, and I, I
suspect you're the kind of
759
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:47,680
investor that often does try and
play commodities via developers.
760
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:51,240
Are are there copper developers
right now that you're allocating
761
00:48:51,240 --> 00:48:57,920
to or have allocations to?
It's yeah, I think that it's
762
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:02,920
quite difficult to find really
attractive copper exposure.
763
00:49:02,920 --> 00:49:06,720
I would say on the ASXI think
there's, you know, there's a
764
00:49:06,720 --> 00:49:11,280
whole sort of laundry list of
companies that have been working
765
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,160
development projects for a long
time.
766
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:16,720
I'm thinking things like Peel
or.
767
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:21,400
Management, yeah.
Yeah, or Hill Grove or Havilah.
768
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:26,560
There's, there's a whole, whole
range of, of, of companies out
769
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,280
there that are sitting on sort
of deposits that, you know,
770
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,760
weren't economic in, you know,
or have haven't been economic in
771
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:38,840
the past, but maybe they're sort
of getting towards Ding Ding.
772
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,560
Ding, Ding on both metals X and
however large should really
773
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,200
disclose but but yeah, so if
you've run the numbers over
774
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:48,240
these these companies and are
you, are you thinking that
775
00:49:48,240 --> 00:49:51,840
they're interesting or are you
sort of maybe waiting?
776
00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:53,120
For.
More catalysts.
777
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,280
Yeah, I think they're becoming
more interesting.
778
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:59,800
And this is where sort of, well,
I'd probably say we're sitting.
779
00:49:59,960 --> 00:50:03,640
We're involved in a very small
way, I would say at the moment,
780
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:08,960
but I think about, you know,
companies like Supreme, right,
781
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:12,560
which has had, you know,
significant expenditure on on
782
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,640
Nifty, which has been a bit of a
graveyard in the past, mind you.
783
00:50:16,240 --> 00:50:20,000
But you know, it's, it's at
times like this where we're
784
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:24,120
seeing supply shortages that,
you know, may push up the copper
785
00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,960
price in the future.
That's when these sort of
786
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:30,920
projects, you know, will offer
that promise of exceptional
787
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,240
rewards, assuming that the
management team are able to
788
00:50:33,240 --> 00:50:36,640
execute and they can get it
funded and restart goes
789
00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:39,520
smoothly, etcetera.
But those are sort of the, you
790
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,040
know, probably the more obvious
candidates, I guess.
791
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:44,760
The talkie stock, that one isn't
it?
792
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,840
Yeah, exactly, exactly, exactly.
But yeah, I mean, you, you've
793
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:53,080
got to be obviously conscious
about what you're investing in
794
00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:57,280
and, and how the economics work
etcetera.
795
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:01,440
But you know, like going back to
something like Havilah tribe
796
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:04,800
that you mentioned, you know,
you'd look at the fact that,
797
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:08,200
well, you know, Once Upon a time
they they were in a sort of
798
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:10,040
joint venture with Oz Minerals,
right.
799
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:15,040
And that sort of demonstrates
that well, maybe there could be,
800
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:17,720
you know, some decent potential
there, right.
801
00:51:17,720 --> 00:51:20,280
Well.
I, I, I agree and that's why I
802
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,080
earn the stock.
But I also think there's another
803
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:26,840
part of that option JV with,
with, with Osman rules, it isn't
804
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:29,920
immediately obvious and that's
that that option was part of the
805
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,520
defence strategy when Osman
rules were trying to negotiate
806
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,880
an uplift from, from BHP.
So they could, you know, well
807
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:39,120
look, whatever the sky high MPV
of this is, we've got to get an
808
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,000
up and they did get an uplift
eventually, but.
809
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:44,480
But it was.
I don't know if Osman rules were
810
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:47,800
motivated in the near term to
actually move there, but but it
811
00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:50,680
does point out that it was
probably the best of a bad bunch
812
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:52,880
if if that makes sense.
Like I, I do think Cavalier's
813
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:56,240
probably better than Rex and we
saw what, what Rex went for,
814
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,040
like.
Yeah, Yeah, exactly.
815
00:51:58,120 --> 00:51:59,840
Yeah, that's right.
So there's plenty of
816
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:03,680
opportunity, I guess.
But yeah, you've got to pick
817
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,080
your battles like, you know,
sand fires, obviously the the
818
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:13,520
sort of high quality exposure on
the on the boss and you know,
819
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,920
but it's valued accordingly,
right?
820
00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:18,200
Absolutely.
Should we wrap up with an
821
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:21,160
underrated overrated?
I reckon we should mate off the.
822
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,440
Top of our heads.
OK, I'll kick it off.
823
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:28,720
First up, underrated, overrated.
Many ionic clay rare earth
824
00:52:28,720 --> 00:52:31,640
projects.
Overrated.
825
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:36,800
Shareholder activism.
Underrated gold.
826
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:41,600
At 3700 bucks.
Underrated.
827
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:52,640
Hard Rock Lithium.
I would say neutral.
828
00:52:53,560 --> 00:53:00,120
Australian Government support
for downstream processing in our
829
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:02,080
nation.
Income.
830
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:06,760
Yeah, I think commodity
dependent.
831
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:09,000
OK.
I would say.
832
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:18,760
Yeah, yeah, Falcon Metals.
I would probably say overrated.
833
00:53:20,600 --> 00:53:22,760
I'm not sure if you've had the
chance to to look at this one,
834
00:53:22,760 --> 00:53:27,800
but a little tin play Stella.
Oh, I would probably say.
835
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:37,960
I would probably say overrated.
Taking every meeting that is
836
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:40,120
that a brokerage has to put in
your calendar.
837
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:45,720
Oh, overrated.
Well, taking every OK,
838
00:53:45,720 --> 00:53:50,720
interacting with every every
kind of retail punter who might
839
00:53:50,720 --> 00:53:57,240
reach out to you.
Oh OK, I think overrated.
840
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:04,840
Inflation concerns, specifically
in Australia, underrated.
841
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:12,360
Foreign capital moving into like
taking strategic stakes in in in
842
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,360
Australian assets.
Underrated.
843
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:19,280
The importance of having a a
major strategic shareholder when
844
00:54:19,280 --> 00:54:22,800
it comes to an up and coming
mining company or junior
845
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:28,880
developer.
I would probably say UN
846
00:54:28,960 --> 00:54:31,040
underrated.
Money Mine podcast.
847
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:36,120
Underrated.
Going to conferences.
848
00:54:38,720 --> 00:54:41,560
Oh, I would probably say
overrated because I haven't gone
849
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,440
to 1 yet, so.
Interesting.
850
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:46,920
Yeah, Yeah.
You haven't gone to any.
851
00:54:47,280 --> 00:54:50,320
No, no, yeah, never.
That's correct.
852
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:52,920
I like your different views on
on doing things.
853
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:55,120
Like I do remember the very
first time we spoke, you were,
854
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:58,560
yeah, you kind of were pretty
public in saying, yeah, don't
855
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:00,000
really meet with management too
often.
856
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:03,840
I like to make my own views.
And I also think maybe that
857
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:06,200
maybe that's changed a little
bit over time, but you were not
858
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:07,880
afraid to just do things a bit
differently.
859
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:13,600
Yeah, I think that that is
probably being relatively
860
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:19,520
consistent.
So I think that, yeah, I prefer
861
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:23,960
not to meet management a great
deal until we have a position.
862
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:30,360
But then, you know, if it's a
large position, then, you know,
863
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:34,640
you, you want to be sort of
really, you want, you want, you
864
00:55:34,640 --> 00:55:38,160
want to have knowledge of, you
know, wanting back good people,
865
00:55:38,200 --> 00:55:39,880
a good character and all the
rest.
866
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:45,200
And with the right sort of
incentives and, you know,
867
00:55:45,240 --> 00:55:47,600
urgency I guess is probably the
right word for it.
868
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:51,160
So I find that it's very
valuable.
869
00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:55,840
Once we've determined that,
yeah, we want to, oh, we want,
870
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:59,560
want this in the portfolio first
for a decent time horizon.
871
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:01,000
That's when you really get the
value.
872
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:07,000
But to make the investment
decision, it's yeah, it's the
873
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:11,040
same, same situation have.
Have you ever had that process
874
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:16,560
built a significant position for
for your fund met management and
875
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:21,040
then reverse your decision?
No.
876
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:25,760
Do you think it's overrated the
way that funds under management
877
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:30,400
can impact returns?
I think that you have to be
878
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:34,560
conscious of your capacity and
that because ultimately that's
879
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:39,880
what determines the size of
company that you can look at,
880
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:43,400
get involved, take seriously all
that sort of thing.
881
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:49,320
So if you if you're running sort
of like let's call it some 100
882
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:54,080
mil or or yeah, even some 50
mil, that's when you micro caps
883
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:59,920
become probably more attractive.
And yeah, it goes the other way.
884
00:56:59,960 --> 00:57:04,400
Obviously, there comes a point
when it's like, well, you don't
885
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:07,920
invest in, you know, the
largest, most liquid sort of
886
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,600
exposures.
And my last one, it's not really
887
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:14,080
an overrated underrated, but I
just want to know like if you
888
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:19,240
look back over, over the yeah,
every new investment you've made
889
00:57:19,240 --> 00:57:25,800
over the last like 3 years, what
is the most common way that you
890
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:30,520
get idea generation?
Yeah, that's a good question.
891
00:57:31,240 --> 00:57:37,000
I think that we read, you know,
a hell of a lot.
892
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:43,040
I think that we get a lot of
benefit in just staying on top
893
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:48,640
of the market news, you know,
just ASX reading ASX releases
894
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,160
every morning, right?
You get can get a real sort of
895
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:58,560
sense of how companies
travelling, you know, sort of
896
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:01,600
the the sort of ambitions of the
team.
897
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,560
That's sort of something that
isn't mentioned or talked about
898
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:07,880
a great deal.
But ultimately all these
899
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:11,600
companies run by people, right?
And you have to have that right?
900
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:14,640
Sort of everything else can be
perfect.
901
00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:19,040
But if a management team doesn't
have ambition, that's, you know,
902
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:23,680
it'll never work out basically.
So that's what I found.
903
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:28,080
And, you know, in terms of idea
generation, you know, you've
904
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:32,120
just got to be really, you've
got to be really involved in the
905
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:36,080
present, I'd say, you know, not
only in the market sense, but
906
00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:37,680
what's happening around the
globe, right?
907
00:58:37,680 --> 00:58:42,480
Like we've seen this become so
prevalent that the market moves
908
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:48,640
so much due to what the, you
know, what the commentary of
909
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:52,120
President Trump is, right?
Every every day it feels like
910
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:57,480
almost, but you know, and and
that's a very stimulating
911
00:58:57,480 --> 00:58:59,600
environment for an active
manager and for an active
912
00:58:59,600 --> 00:59:02,800
investor.
So I think that's where you sort
913
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:06,720
of get the best returns by, you
know, keeping a constant pulse
914
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,400
on the market and what's
happening in it.
915
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,440
Manny, yeah, your results speak
for themselves, so appreciate
916
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:14,160
you coming on.
It's always great to chat.
917
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:16,880
And yeah, thanks for sharing all
your thoughts with us.
918
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:19,520
Yeah, no worries, guys.
Thanks so much.
919
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,800
There we go mate, another
fantastic bit of insight from a
920
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:25,840
favorite fundy of money of mine
manual dat.
921
00:59:26,040 --> 00:59:28,760
And it's all made possible
thanks to our fantastic
922
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:31,480
partners.
Sandwich ground support focus
923
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:33,880
the platform by market tech
Check it out now and get your
924
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:37,480
tickets to imark.
October 21 to October 23,
925
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:42,120
investors go free.
We'll see you at Imark now.
926
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,880
Remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.
927
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:47,320
If you thought any of this was
anything other than
928
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,000
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out a
929
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:50,560
disclaimer.