Aug. 13, 2024

Gold Fields breathes life into Gold M&A

We’ve got a big deal to talk about, with Gold Fields (GFI.nyse) swinging for JV partner Osisko (OSK.to) in a C$2.16b deal.

We also touched on comments from Barrick boss Mark Bristow, as well as speculation that Albemarle might sell their Greenbushes stake, and a block trade that crossed in Genesis (GMD) stock.

Finally, we picked over news that Zambia has closed its boarder with the Congo. 

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(0:00:00)Introduction

(0:02:29)Gold Fields swings for Osisko

(0:23:08)Life in Canadian miners

(0:30:39)Barrick boss talks down M&A

(0:32:58)Albemarle selling Greenbushes stake?

(0:40:08)Genesis block crosses

(0:42:37)Zambia shuts Congo boarder

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00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,400
Righto buddy miners, welcome to
the world of Maddie and JD.

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00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,680
We're getting intimate today,
JD, just me and you, copper.

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00:00:07,920 --> 00:00:12,720
J CS got the cold sweats.
We're sad buddy and Travers on

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00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:15,800
Travers in Kalgoorlie.
So mate, we're flying the flag.

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00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,800
Mate, I'm I'm pumped we've got
M&A to talk about.

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00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,840
We do you know something that
occurred to me this morning.

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00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:26,840
I'm a bit slow on the uptake.
Sometimes I'm like, that's why

8
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,680
they call it Axis mine and
technology because of the

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orientation and the that just
clicked to me.

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Did that Click to you?
Why that name?

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Is that?
Why?

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Access some.
Sometimes it takes 5 minutes

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mate.
Sometimes it takes three months.

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When we get there in the end, it
takes a.

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Few months and I'm like, of
course, quite clever they come

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up with that name.
So yeah, they did.

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00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,520
Apologies to Axis that you've
got a bloody dumb ass like me

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00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:55,360
doing an ad for you, but I the
pennies dropped and it should

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have dropped for everyone.
As the trusted advisor for drill

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00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,920
all survey instrumentation Axis
so.

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Axis.
Yeah, Righto JD big, big, big

22
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deal or Cisco and Goldfields now
did there is and we've learnt to

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00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,440
the odd as you explained to me,
there's 100 million bloodier

24
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Cisco's out there.
It's not a Cisco gold royalties.

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It's not the one that had the
royalty of Bloody Castle Bell,

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it's the Cisco mining So.
A a group of companies as I

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think they call it mate.
So kind of a bit of a Lundin

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type situation in a way.
Maybe not the same allure as as

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the Lundins, but this is the
Cisco mining we're talking

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about.
And and Goldfields are two non

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Aussie companies, although
Goldfields have a fair few

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operations out out here.
But we're kind of weave our way

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through it, mate, given that
it's not not our home ground

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we're playing on.
The Abbottibbe belt there's some

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bloody gold in that joint it
appears so right.

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What else you got?
But there's a bit of a bit of

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bloody yeah word on the decline
going around in the papers about

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00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,680
potentially Albemarle doing
something with their green

39
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bushes stake.
Don't know if there's any what

40
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substance behind that yet.
We've had a block big block

41
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:14,240
trade on a gold one of the
goldies and we're else you got

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JD.
That's mate, we can.

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00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,080
We're going to do the regular
Africa segment and we're going

44
00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,840
to just touch in on, on what's
going on in, in Zambia and the

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Congo and see if there's any
sort of repercussions on the,

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the copper market.
Oh.

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00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:28,320
Mate, God's country, God's
country we've.

48
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:29,920
Got to start with a deal though,
mate, yeah.

49
00:02:29,920 --> 00:02:35,640
Mate, let's let's get into it.
So Cisco and Goldfields who were

50
00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:41,280
in AJV for the Windfall gold
project in Quebec.

51
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,960
And there there's Goldfield's
only just bought into this JVI

52
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think it was start of 2023 and
yeah, May and they have now

53
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,000
buying a Cisco to take 100.
That was for the at the project

54
00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,880
level.
They're just bloody taking a

55
00:02:57,880 --> 00:02:59,760
Cisco now they're going to have
the whole bloody thing.

56
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JD talked me through this bloody
big deal.

57
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,040
She's huge.
Mate, let's let's run through

58
00:03:06,040 --> 00:03:09,160
the deal and then a bit about
the the companies and everything

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00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:12,200
we need to get people up to
speed, not least us.

60
00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,320
So we'll get every.
Comfortable JD.

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Whenever uncomfortable, just sit
back and relax.

62
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All right, we'll, we'll paint a
picture mate.

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So the deal is being done at 4
bucks, 90 a share Canadian in

64
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cash.
So fully diluted that's just

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00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,920
under 2.2 Canadian billion
dollars for the company and an

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EV of about 1.5.
Now there's a bit of kind of

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funny math going on in there
because like you say, there was

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AJV that was done in early 2023
and part of that was a $300

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00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:46,320
million deferred cash payment
from Goldfields to Cisco to buy

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into the stake.
Now that's been cancelled as

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part of the deal.
There was also a commitment for

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00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:56,520
75,000,000 bucks in exploration
that Goldfields were obliged to

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pay, also been eliminated.
Obviously, as they'll on the

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whole thing, they can make their
own decision.

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00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,560
So there's a few liabilities on
the Goldfield side that are

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being removed as a part of this
transaction.

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And it was interesting to kind
of hear a couple of the comments

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from the company Goldfields in
relation to why they're using

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cash.
Because when you, when you think

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back about it, we don't see too
many of these deals just being

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done purely out of cash.
It's often, you know, a bit of

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script, bit of cash or maybe all
script, but it's kind of, you

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know, it, it reflects the
relative size of these and also

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the the speed at which they want
to get the deal done.

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So we saw Goldfield say that
they see a decent amount of

86
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intrinsic value in their own
stock and they saw that it

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wasn't the optimal strategy to
dilute their shareholders

88
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anymore.
Hence they're just going to use

89
00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,800
their cash.
They, they took on another 500

90
00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:46,400
million in debt, signed up a new
facility.

91
00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,960
They had a bit over 400 million
in cash and they had already a

92
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,960
$1.3 billion facility that was
untapped as well.

93
00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,000
Now, Maddie, the, the, the terms
are pretty standard.

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00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:01,160
You'll remember Corolla, we
spoke about 2/3 of shareholders

95
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,440
on the, on the TSX company,
there being Corolla here at

96
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,880
Cisco needing to vote in, in
favour of the deal.

97
00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:11,720
And you need a simple majority
on the day of voters to vote in

98
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favour of the deal.
And I mean, given the the

99
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,560
backing, given the huge premium,
the the board backing and all

100
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,960
these sorts of things, I don't
imagine those points will be a

101
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,040
huge point of contention.
No, you wouldn't think.

102
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:28,000
You'd think a 55% premium should
do the job.

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Cash.
You'd say Joni, she's pretty.

104
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,480
This is how it is.
If you don't like it, yeah.

105
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It's it's pretty wild.
It's been a while since I've

106
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seen something like that for a,
for a company of of this kind of

107
00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:46,560
size, you know, so interestingly
on the, on the aspects of deal

108
00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,440
protection, so looking pretty
tight, $108 million break fee

109
00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:52,680
payable.
Anyone that wants to to walk

110
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,240
obviously given certain
circumstances, but that that's

111
00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,600
at the higher end of deal deals
that I've seen.

112
00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,440
If you're looking at a a deal of
a bit over 2 billion, that's

113
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,440
that's over 5% now remember
there was a bit of.

114
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,560
I think that Yamana deal when
Goldfield's got the break fee

115
00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,920
for that, I think that was like
that was I think that was like a

116
00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:15,560
7 odd billion dollar deal, but I
think the break fee was like 200

117
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,560
odd million they got from that
from.

118
00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,000
Yeah.
And and if you remember that the

119
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,480
West Gold Corolla deal with
Remelius trying to get

120
00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:28,320
themselves in, one of their
complaints was at the abnormally

121
00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,480
large break fee as well.
And that was from memory.

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00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:36,040
That was four, Yeah, 4%, 40
exactly.

123
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:40,440
And here we're talking 5.3% on
the fully diluted value.

124
00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,920
So it's it's definitely at the
higher end and gives a good bit

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00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:47,120
of deal protection.
And Cisco you know, they they've

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00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,320
jumped 63% today that that's
huge.

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00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,920
And gold fields have come off 6%
kind of naturally you see the

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the aquirer come off a bit, but
gold fields might be the only

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00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,560
gold stock I could find today
that has come off.

130
00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:03,520
It's been a an awesome day for
the gold is a few good earnings

131
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,600
out there and then this one just
lighten a bit of a fire under

132
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:10,240
the, you know, developing or
undeveloped assets in North

133
00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,360
America and a bit in in the ASX
as well, which we'll get into

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00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,800
down the track.
Mate, well JD, give us the

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00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,840
bloody, give us the rap on
goldfields before we get into

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00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,200
this windfall project, which is
like a she's a pretty bloody

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00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:26,560
impressive operation it appears.
So a bit of a, you'd say it's

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00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,720
like a bit of a Canadian
Bellevue, like you're looking at

139
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:32,520
the style and the grades and
everything.

140
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:37,480
A lot of a lot of Belleville,
Bellevue parallels, mate.

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00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,120
I think you're you're spot on
now Goldfields you you'd be

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00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:41,920
fairly familiar with some of the
operations.

143
00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,160
They've obviously got a fair few
minds.

144
00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:45,840
St.
Ives been probably the stand out

145
00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:50,200
here in in Australia.
They got a a number of

146
00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:51,560
operations and then they're
they're.

147
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:54,840
Also, so they got a yeah, Agnew
St.

148
00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:59,600
Ives, which in which has
invincible, which they've had

149
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,720
the big you know, sugar hit from
because it's like an impressive.

150
00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,360
Then you know, Agnew.
Agnew is the probably the

151
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,400
historic one, which they it was
just Wooronga.

152
00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:13,160
And then the other side, which
used to be Lawless was Barrack,

153
00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:17,560
but now that is under
Goldfield's ownership as New

154
00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:19,800
Holland they call that's that's
all joined up.

155
00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,680
Then they got Granny Smith and
obviously the JV with Gold Rd at

156
00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,840
Gruyere.
Yeah.

157
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,440
So looking at the the most
recent numbers, about half the

158
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,560
production came from Australia,
a third out of Ghana and then

159
00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,520
the rest out of South Africa and
Peru.

160
00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,919
Now they're all in sustaining
cost of last quarter jumped up

161
00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,480
pretty massively to a bit over
1700 US.

162
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,159
But if you look back just a
year, it was around that 1100

163
00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,280
number.
So they call themselves a 2.3

164
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,320
million oz per annum producer
and they like to use a number in

165
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,560
the in the low one thousands for
for all in sustaining cost,

166
00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,480
which is pretty, you know,
unlike what the the recent

167
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,240
quarter has been like.
And that sort of plays into a

168
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,720
rationale behind the deal which
we'll get into as well down the

169
00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,360
track, mate.
And we'll get into like how far

170
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:10,240
it's developed ahead.
When they start producing, you

171
00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:13,920
would anticipate that all in
sustaining cost to be pretty low

172
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,400
because when development that is
that far ahead, you don't have

173
00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:21,000
to do it as quickly.
So they're OpEx.

174
00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:22,360
It's.
Pretty good.

175
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,080
Hopefully it's it's good for the
the marketing material as well,

176
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:28,720
right and yeah and you can
advertise that all in sustaining

177
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,560
costs after.
All you've still spent the money

178
00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:33,640
like it's been spent, it's like.
Don't worry about that.

179
00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:35,880
Don't worry about that.
They look over here, you look

180
00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:37,880
over here.
Exactly.

181
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,760
So I mean let's get into a Cisco
now they're they're perhaps a

182
00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:43,520
bit more exciting than than
goldfields themselves.

183
00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,680
Obviously like you say already
JV partners on the windfall

184
00:09:46,680 --> 00:09:50,360
project, this deal was signed
about a year and a half ago that

185
00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,680
came with 300 million bucks
upfront.

186
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:56,240
And then there was I think $34
million was the number to sort

187
00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:00,880
of even out what a Cisco had
already paid in, in CapEx to

188
00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,560
make it sort of true 5050.
And then you had the deferred

189
00:10:04,560 --> 00:10:07,800
payment as well as the
commitment to spend on

190
00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:10,880
exploration.
And it was a, it was a kind of

191
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,800
funky very even operating
partnership that they'd signed.

192
00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,920
It wasn't like the year where
you've got the, the one out and

193
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:22,600
out operator.
It was a partnership group that

194
00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:25,680
was made up 50% on each kind of
side.

195
00:10:25,680 --> 00:10:28,640
So it's a bit different.
And I think that's one of the

196
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,320
the bonuses of getting this deal
done just streamlines decision

197
00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,280
making because you don't have to
go and agree everything with the

198
00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:37,320
other side of the JV
partnership.

199
00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,840
You can just go ahead and do
what you think's best for, for

200
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,560
the asset.
But to kind of expand on a Cisco

201
00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:48,280
so more broadly as a company, I
saw an interesting tweet from

202
00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,080
David Finch, who we've had on
the potty in the past.

203
00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,640
And he, he put up a cheeky
screen grab from Bloomberg that

204
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,960
shows the, the number of equity
offerings, so placements that a

205
00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:02,600
Cisco has done since 2015.
And you can, you can see a few

206
00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,800
of these are, are doubled up.
It's not the 25 isn't the the

207
00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,880
perfect number, but they have
done a fair few capital raising.

208
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:11,680
So I'm sure there'll be a few
upset brokers out there.

209
00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,440
And if you look at the, the
share price performance, it's

210
00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:19,160
been in a kind of similar range,
sort of floating in between, you

211
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,480
know, what is it two and two and
five bucks for the best part of

212
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,720
a decade.
So, you know, since, since

213
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:30,480
they've discovered the project
and you know, sunk 2,000,000

214
00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,040
metres of drilling into the
thing, they've just been trading

215
00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,520
in and around that range.
And you know, we, we haven't

216
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:40,720
actually even had FID on the
project yet, which will get into

217
00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,600
in a SEC when we get right into
the details of what the project

218
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:46,160
is all about.
But to round out the, you know,

219
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,200
the financial side of things,
there's about 5 million shares

220
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,200
sold short, which was, you know,
over over $10 million before the

221
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,120
day, which is, you know, a lot
more.

222
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:59,200
So someone or multiple people
out there are having a bad day.

223
00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,680
What about you mentioned the
Opies and the warrants and

224
00:12:03,680 --> 00:12:06,360
everything on the change and
control?

225
00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,680
How's that work?
And what's your bloody vesting?

226
00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:12,440
Or what's happening?
Yeah, so 28 million all up that

227
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,720
that sort of speaks for both
options and and warrants that

228
00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:16,440
were outstanding.
Every one of them is in the

229
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:18,240
money now.
So that's all we're going to go

230
00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,720
through as as part of the deal
now.

231
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,360
I mean, let's let's get into the
project itself, Maddie and I'll,

232
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,160
I'll flip over to you to get
into the the real details.

233
00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:30,640
But the the broader picture is
4.1 million oz right at 11.4

234
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,520
grammes.
That's a that's a belt and

235
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,360
that's just the the measured and
indicated resource.

236
00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,640
Yeah, yeah.
Included in that is the minable

237
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,320
reserve of three point 2 million
oz and.

238
00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:44,080
I think that's right about
eight.

239
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,080
I think the reserve, yeah, it's
a bit over 8 or bad, bad.

240
00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,240
Yeah, spot on, I think.
Yeah.

241
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,400
And it's interesting to kind of
look at some of the brokers and

242
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,320
what they've they've drummed up
in their reports.

243
00:12:54,560 --> 00:12:57,760
They're talking about a, you
know, a mineable reserve of some

244
00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:01,160
of them are at 5 million oz.
So they've clearly factored in a

245
00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,040
lot more conversion down the
track and that plays into the,

246
00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:06,880
the MPV of the project and what
not.

247
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,680
But but like you said before the
show, before we started

248
00:13:09,680 --> 00:13:12,120
recording, this isn't actually
permitted yet.

249
00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:17,080
So permitting is advanced.
The they've put their, the, you

250
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,360
know, the final environmental
studies in expecting them to

251
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,880
come through in the first half
of next calendar year.

252
00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,680
But you know, that's, that's
kind of like what you spoke

253
00:13:25,680 --> 00:13:27,160
about yesterday.
It's a, it's a big difference

254
00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:29,800
between projects out there and
what you kind of what you're

255
00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:31,240
paying for, right?
Yeah.

256
00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,600
And like or the couple of
million metres of diamond of

257
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:38,600
drilling plus 14 kilometres of
development already developed

258
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,520
down to 670 odd metres below the
surface.

259
00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:45,520
So it's yeah, yeah, they must be
pretty confident on that permit

260
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,880
coming through on reckon JD.
Mate, if you've, if you've sunk

261
00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,280
$1.1 billion into the thing, I,
I think you'd be, you know,

262
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,560
pretty confident that it's going
to come through to, to rattle

263
00:13:55,560 --> 00:14:00,480
off the, the financial metrics
of the project, 1.2 billion MPV,

264
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:05,920
that's using a 5% discount rate,
but also a, a 1600 US gold

265
00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,880
price.
So, you know, can kind of work

266
00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,680
on those things in, in either
direction. 34 four percent IRR

267
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:18,920
and then you got around about
300,000 oz over 10 years at

268
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:24,240
A760US all in sustaining cost
like you say 8.1 grammes per

269
00:14:24,240 --> 00:14:28,000
tonne and around about an $800
million CapEx that still needs

270
00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,360
to be spent.
So they want to hit the ground

271
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:34,480
running at, you know, end of 26,
early 27 depending on

272
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,280
permitting, and get this thing
into production.

273
00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:41,720
Yes, right.
So there's let's, let's go,

274
00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:43,840
let's get into the mine.
Should we get into the mining

275
00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:46,840
JD?
Mate, please take, please take

276
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,240
the the microphone.
Well, now before we do you know

277
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:54,280
the the big ticks for these ones
that really give them a leg up

278
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:59,920
in mining cost hydro, fully
hydro powered that's.

279
00:14:59,920 --> 00:15:01,640
Yes, it's it's good where you
can get it, hey.

280
00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,520
Yeah.
So we don't unfortunately don't

281
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,800
have much of it in in Australia,
except for bloody snowy hydro.

282
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,600
There's no bloody minds there.
They're minds in themselves,

283
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,520
those bloody tunnels.
But like the yeah, cheap,

284
00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,040
cheapest, cheapest, cheapest.
Bugger, isn't it?

285
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,440
Yeah, and they've they've got it
all, all permitted and and

286
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,880
hooked up with Quebec Hydro.
So they're all good on that

287
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:25,480
front.
But.

288
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,600
Well they wouldn't be.
They would.

289
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:33,000
The hydropower is literally the
only reason you would not need

290
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:37,000
Silverstone because that's the
only power they don't do, so

291
00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:38,280
that's.
Probably telling me they do

292
00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,000
every.
Every do every other bit of

293
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,480
power.
I've actually probably tipping

294
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,320
that since they've been such the
meteoric rise of Silverstone in

295
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,160
the power industry might
actually see them diversify into

296
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,560
hydropower just to keep
themselves interested.

297
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:54,440
I'm not, I'm, I'm thinking out
of Australia.

298
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,680
Who's going to step up to the
plight for hydropower when we

299
00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,320
do, if ever need it?
Mate, the the government should

300
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:04,600
get Silverstone, the government
should get Silverstone to to

301
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,280
sort out snowy hydro for them.
That's been a basket case.

302
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:08,200
Oh.
Mate they would have done it

303
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:09,800
heaps cheaper more.
Efficiently.

304
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,200
Way cheaper.
Heaps cheaper so mate.

305
00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,480
Well, they've got the next best
thing for the environment.

306
00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,440
They've got renewables, they got
hybrid, they got old school

307
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:18,880
power if you need it.
So.

308
00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,720
But anyway, they might, they
might, as you said, snowy hydro.

309
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:25,200
That's it.
That might be a good job for old

310
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,760
Kenny and the boys.
Yeah, it should be a big job.

311
00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:31,040
Not bad anyway.
So why where is this?

312
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:34,360
What's this hydro bloody supply
and let's get into it. 1.2

313
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:38,520
million tonne per annum mill by
the looks bloody high grade,

314
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:43,120
bloody high grade Pete.
So it's looking about a 300,000

315
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,680
oz per annum operation.
I think it says peak production

316
00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:53,360
of 374,000 ounces in year 2.
But we all know that we know

317
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,960
about production forecast first
actuals when we get there.

318
00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,400
So but they've look, as I said,
freaking can't can't ask for a

319
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:04,160
better rolling start and to like
the capital development like

320
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:08,119
into the oil by the looks is
down to 671 metres below the

321
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,760
surface.
So and looking at this picture

322
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,920
of a long aisle rig, unless it's
drilling a it said long haul

323
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:15,400
drilling.
So I don't know if they're

324
00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,240
drilling production holes
already if they were if they

325
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,240
were just drilling a bloody vent
rise or something.

326
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,880
But yeah, they're.
Yeah, you can see got they got

327
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,920
four vent risers all all already
sorted.

328
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,440
Yeah, so I don't know if that
was an intermediate or a bloody

329
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:35,000
escape who who knows, but yeah,
like to just it is developed

330
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:39,080
that freaking far ahead.
But as we said haven't announced

331
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,120
FID yet.
That's probably that'll be

332
00:17:41,120 --> 00:17:44,160
obviously hinging on, you know,
permits and stuff as well.

333
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,720
But that's just yeah, once that
once that mill gets built,

334
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,920
should be bloody rocks flying
out the friggin hold off with if

335
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,400
the development's that far
ahead.

336
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:57,360
So, and you look at the long
section here, like like these

337
00:17:57,360 --> 00:18:01,920
Abbottibi belt ore bodies, like
they just will likely just keep

338
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,040
going to the bloody centre of
the earth as long as you can

339
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:05,760
keep the seismicity under
control.

340
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,600
So yeah, and all the drilling
like massively, massively de

341
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:14,640
wrist.
And so I read through the study

342
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,760
briefly.
I'm not as in the weeds in this

343
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:18,040
one.
It's like because they don't

344
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:19,480
notify me these deals are
coming.

345
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:21,200
So I've got to try and read it
today.

346
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,720
It's so rude of them so.
Very very rude mate, but.

347
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,680
Yeah, very as, as we said, very
lot of parallels to Bellevue

348
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,760
style, all body lot, very narrow
vein, high grade.

349
00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:34,800
The, the, the key difference,
right, Maddie, as you're kind of

350
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,040
putting, you know, pointing out
there is that these guys have

351
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,160
done the, the development
beforehand.

352
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,480
Now the, the, the start of
production has been pushed back

353
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,160
I think almost two years
already.

354
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,680
So there's been delays that, you
know, are taken in part relating

355
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,360
to permitting and all these
sorts of things.

356
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,560
But they clearly didn't run the
risk of getting to the point

357
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,760
where the the mill is really
hungry and they can't quite feed

358
00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,640
it because it looks like they've
just taken things a whole lot

359
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,560
slower than Bellevue did, right?
Yeah, but that Bellevue were

360
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:08,320
developing for a while before
the actual mining proposal was

361
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:12,120
accepted from memory, like with
the like on the back of the

362
00:19:12,120 --> 00:19:15,440
native title and and everything
'cause that that was developing

363
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,320
for ages before the mill got
started built.

364
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:23,080
But it just, yeah, this one's
obviously a lot, a lot deeper in

365
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:24,360
terms of how much they've put
into it.

366
00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:26,520
As you said, they've been going,
it's been ticking along for

367
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,440
bloody years, years.
So what?

368
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,920
And one thing we'll go bit of
underground.

369
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:35,480
We'll get in the weeds of
underground with these ore

370
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,120
bodies, JD when they are
developed that far ahead,

371
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,120
because what happens what they
will do?

372
00:19:40,120 --> 00:19:44,000
They will start multiple mining
fronts because you just if

373
00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:47,040
everything's developed, you
started stopping front up the

374
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,000
top.
Bloody skip A level, start

375
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,400
another one down there, skip A
level, start another one.

376
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,480
So you're not you're not just
they're not just dictated by

377
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,440
going top down from the top and
waiting on everything to be

378
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,480
finished.
So I can bloody get a get a bit

379
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:05,000
a lot happening at once.
But when what what will happen

380
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:07,640
is and where they have to sort
of adequately plan it.

381
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,920
And I've seen this go wrong a
lot is.

382
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,880
When you go into mind that the
skipped level, they call it like

383
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,600
the sill pillar.
So like between the two stopping

384
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,080
fronts, there'll be a solid
chunk that hasn't been taken out

385
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,720
yet.
That's where the stress starts

386
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,200
to really concentrate because
all the that pillar just all the

387
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,960
straight ground stress because
you got a whole ear above and

388
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,240
below it all just concentrates
and bloody tries to squeeze it

389
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,360
like a pimple.
And what happens is when they if

390
00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:41,360
they do develop that the jumbo
drive for that sill pillar, then

391
00:20:41,360 --> 00:20:45,360
they go back in there later on
and might sit there for years,

392
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,120
but all the stress starts
concentrating and it just

393
00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:51,440
squeezes it and the seismicity
is going off its frigging head.

394
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:55,840
So you end up bloody bolting it
and put all the ground sport in.

395
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,680
But then you got to go back and
because it's the grounds all

396
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,320
that fucked, you got to scale
it, snap bolts off re support

397
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:07,080
the whole thing.
So I'm hoping that they

398
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:10,800
adequately plan where those seal
pillars are, Don't develop the

399
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,400
jumbo drive so you don't have to
bloody put all the support up to

400
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,280
us because bloody rehab and all
that sort of shit gets a bit

401
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:21,240
hairy with rocks and shit flying
everywhere and snub bolts flying

402
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,880
when you're snapping it off.
So it's it's just, it's just

403
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,760
hard work.
I'm just, I'm hoping they

404
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,120
sometimes they get white line
fever and they're like, oh,

405
00:21:29,120 --> 00:21:30,840
we'll get in there.
We'll do the all drive because

406
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,960
we get the development all
because we're here.

407
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,840
But then you just get bitten in
the ass later on trying to rehab

408
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,600
the whole thing to re access it.
So that's the that's where the

409
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,000
and I think, I think the report
said once you get down to about

410
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,880
600 metres, which is where they
are now, that's when the stress

411
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,640
in the sill pillars will start
becoming an issue.

412
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,600
So I've heard there's some lot
La Ronde, some of the other

413
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,640
neighbouring minds in the
Abbottibi belt have heard the

414
00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:01,360
bloody because they're so deep.
The seismicity is pretty

415
00:22:01,360 --> 00:22:04,560
considerable there with the
stiff ground, so a bit of bloody

416
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,640
banging and cracking.
So anyway, we'll see see how

417
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,080
they got the the one thing it's
good for doing the re support

418
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:13,480
thing.
It's obviously sensational for

419
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,760
DSI if they re up the whole
thing because they put the

420
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,040
ground sport in, snap it all
off, put it up, pay two bloody

421
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,840
invoices.
But I think even Derek heard in

422
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,000
the DSI team JD, they they know
it's not the right thing to do.

423
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,720
They'd be like, hey, don't
develop it yet, just be smart.

424
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:32,960
Not many mining services
companies like think that way

425
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,160
out of principle.
Like it's highly commendable to

426
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:40,360
the DSI team, but because
there's the right way, there's

427
00:22:40,360 --> 00:22:42,960
the wrong way, but then there's
DSI's way.

428
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,320
Like it's like the money of mine
way mate, just do the right

429
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,560
thing.
Right, in the words of the great

430
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:58,000
Russell Peters, be a man.
Do the right thing very good.

431
00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:02,480
Yeah, she's a pretty, pretty
impressive all body by the looks

432
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,360
side.
And now you're going to probably

433
00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:07,520
bloody I should have read what
you're right.

434
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:14,480
But this, this, this could pose
very interesting for North

435
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,480
American gold flavour,
especially for Australian ASX

436
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,840
listed companies that have North
American gold projects that a

437
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,400
lot of them picked up in the
main ear in like what was that

438
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,520
about 20-20 around then?
Yeah, yeah, A.

439
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,800
Lot of them.
Starting, starting 2019-2020,

440
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,920
21, there was a few, I mean from
from a Cisco's perspective, you

441
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,800
look at the, the deal and it, it
seems like a, a kind of

442
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:43,080
inevitable outcome in a way.
Obviously it's, it's not a

443
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:47,160
company we've followed in, in
great detail, but you just, you

444
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,760
kind of see how long the process
kind of took and the development

445
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,000
risk that we've spoken about a
number of times.

446
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,000
If you're a single asset
company, just how great it is

447
00:23:57,240 --> 00:23:59,920
and how much better that can
going to be handled within a, a

448
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,080
bigger organisation.
It does seem somewhat natural.

449
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,240
And like we've said a couple
Times Now there, there are sort

450
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,480
of similars to Bellevue and the
the consensus in the market that

451
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,280
Bellevue would kind of be taken
out, but the share price kind of

452
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,600
got away from them.
And everyone kind of pointing

453
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:18,680
the finger saying Northern Star
would be the ones who'd scoop

454
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,640
them up.
And if you, if you look at the

455
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,160
deal from Goldfield's
perspective, like we said,

456
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,480
speeds up decision making.
I think that's sort of first and

457
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,120
foremost, it just makes sense on
that part.

458
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,800
I think there's some pretty
serious long term exploration

459
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,960
upside and it's probably worth
us doing a deeper dive on the

460
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,800
whole region.
But you know, a lot of the, the

461
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,960
metrics, they look quite
different if you're looking at

462
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:46,680
just the answers included in
the, in the mine plan here or

463
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,920
the, and the resource
surrounding the mine versus if

464
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,600
you look at the broader package
that gold fields are now picking

465
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:56,040
up, there seems to be some
pretty serious exploration

466
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,960
upside.
And I mean the Cisco have got

467
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:01,960
this earning with Bontera,
they've now done 35 kilometres

468
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,040
of drilling there.
So there's quite a few sort of

469
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,680
tenements that are being picked
up by gold fields.

470
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,920
And I think you know, you can,
you can say with a bit of

471
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,760
confidence that this operation
is going to go on a whole lot

472
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,640
longer than the 10 year mine
life that we've got from the

473
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,480
most recent study.
I think you, you, you can't

474
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,160
undermine the diversity to the,
the portfolio as well.

475
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,480
Like I said, there's a, there's
a fair bit in Australia, which

476
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:28,960
is obviously top notch
jurisdiction, but you got a bit

477
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:32,400
in Ghana, you've got a bit in
Peru and a bit in South Africa.

478
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,360
So going out to Canada isn't the
worst place in the world to to

479
00:25:36,360 --> 00:25:40,280
go and develop this thing.
I'm assuming that permits and

480
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,920
everything are going to come
through without a without a

481
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,160
hitch and to to look.
More.

482
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:50,160
Broadly on the North American
goldies like you've said Maddie

483
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:51,800
and and on the Aussie goldies as
well.

484
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,120
I think there's a fair bit to
get excited about and I think

485
00:25:54,120 --> 00:25:56,880
the market has really cottoned
on to that today.

486
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,600
I mean I was just flicking
through a number of the names in

487
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,480
North America and you can see
probe gold up 7%, snow line up

488
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,520
13, skiing up 23, I am gold up
10%.

489
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,040
They had good results out as
well.

490
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,760
A few of these companies had
results, but B2 up five, Nova up

491
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:17,280
six, Barrick up 9%.
They also had earnings that came

492
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,400
out.
But across the board, all these

493
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,920
names are are up and up pretty
strongly.

494
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:27,120
You look at the the undeveloped
Aussie goldies out there and you

495
00:26:27,120 --> 00:26:30,080
know, there's only a handful of
of kind of decent size, but De

496
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:34,640
Grey was up 6%.
So 6% isn't a a normal sort of

497
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,000
move for them.
Spartan, they're back around

498
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,600
1:30 just to to name a couple
out there.

499
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,240
And if you want to look at the
metrics that the deal is being

500
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,560
done out, I read a broker report
and they're talking about this

501
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:51,080
deal being done at about .8
times NAV if you're flashing

502
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,440
through spot prices.
Whereas the rest of the

503
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:58,040
developers in Canada, the the
peer sort of group for a Cisco,

504
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,160
they're trading about .33 times.
So that is a long way off.

505
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,040
And we've spoken with numerous
fundies over the past year about

506
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,920
just how cheap North America is.
And it's been a painful bloody

507
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,840
trade for a heap of them, right?
Because things have just gotten

508
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,920
worse and worse and worse rather
than, you know, playing out as a

509
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,840
lot of those fundies would have
hoped.

510
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,880
That's both in the, the critical
mineral sort of space as well as

511
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:24,320
the gold space.
And potentially there's some

512
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,200
sort of green shoots coming
through now with corporates

513
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:31,440
saying, you know, this is it
like prices are cheap enough.

514
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:32,680
We're we're entitled to do a
deal.

515
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,120
Obviously this one's slightly
different situation.

516
00:27:35,120 --> 00:27:37,800
They already had 50% of the
project, but I think that's

517
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,880
what's coming through the market
and people are getting a bit

518
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,480
excited about it.
Yeah, no, the ones to the ones

519
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,520
to think about like the, because
there's a North American gold

520
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,440
assets within ISX companies that
are essentially fucking valued

521
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,160
at nothing on the in, in the
value they've given.

522
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:58,240
Like Firefly is a it's a copper
miner now.

523
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,680
But don't forget they've still
got the pickle crow thing, which

524
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,240
was Orteco, which was 3,000,000
inferred oz.

525
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:10,040
But like that's essentially not
really being valued in a way.

526
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,320
It's like there's the focus is
going to copper, but they've

527
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:16,000
still got that from and that was
when they went from like $0.02

528
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,840
to $0.20 before the share
consolidation and then wrote it

529
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,520
all the way back down.
Like you got sugar zone with

530
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,920
silver like like that, like not
really with red five.

531
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:31,600
Sorry, like that's not really I
don't know what the brokers put

532
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:36,320
for value of that, but it's not
like a yeah and like the bloody

533
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,040
the labyrinth gal project that
might bloody they couldn't even

534
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,080
couldn't even sell that for 5
million like which is what they.

535
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,400
Brought it probably comes across
a bit harsh, but I think you're

536
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,400
spot on that I think it's I
think it's true and it's so

537
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,280
that.
All that stuff might actually

538
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,600
start coming back.
Who, who knows?

539
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,280
But this, whether this is like,
they're all undeveloped and

540
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,240
everything like years and years
away, Let's look at this one's

541
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,560
bloody developed and still
waiting on a permit.

542
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,560
So it's.
Yeah, it'd be very interesting.

543
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,720
It's all flushed down from the
the poor performance of the the

544
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,480
operators though, hey?
Yeah, yes.

545
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:14,960
Who?
Who?

546
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,600
Unfortunately, that's where it's
kind of stemmed from.

547
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,080
But I mean, you know, maybe that
can can kind of turn around.

548
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,280
And you know, if you, if you
look at even more broadly, this

549
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,520
isn't an, an Aussie specific
thing, but just how cheap

550
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,040
resource companies have been in
North America and Canada

551
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,400
specifically.
There was another group crew

552
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:38,120
Energy, they got a bid today 76%
up on, on the news.

553
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,160
So they're a, they're a billion
dollar company.

554
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:44,640
It wasn't a wasn't a negligible
deal, you know, and I think that

555
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,400
just goes to show when you see
those sorts of movements on, on

556
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,480
M&A deals, there's a few people
looking around and thinking,

557
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,000
hey, maybe maybe now's the time.
And these things are, are

558
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,200
really, really cheap.
And, you know, maybe the

559
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,360
Canadians get a bit concerned.
We already saw them put all

560
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,920
those protections around the,
the critical minerals companies.

561
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,040
There was, you know, certain
thresholds that needed to be

562
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,600
met.
Obviously this one's not

563
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:08,600
applicable because, because it's
gold, not a critical mineral,

564
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,600
but the, the exchange will just
get smaller and smaller.

565
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,040
Here's another couple companies
that will it'll fall off the

566
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:19,200
exchange because they're just so
cheap and there's not the

567
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,840
liquidity or the interest in the
companies in Canada.

568
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:27,000
Yes, oh bloody mate, fucking 11.
Deal happens.

569
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,160
We're like, this could be shit
going everywhere, but it might

570
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,720
not be.
Anyway, I mean you say 1 deal

571
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,760
mate and I was thinking the same
going into this and. 20 deals

572
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:42,600
but.
You see this is true, but when

573
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,280
you, you put it into context of
the broader, you know, mining M

574
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,880
and a kind of cycle we might be
in, there's, there's been a fair

575
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,600
few.
And I was listening to, to Mark

576
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:55,280
Bristow earlier today on, on
Barrick's earnings and you know,

577
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:56,960
they had a good quarterly.
They, they checked a lot of

578
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,280
boxes, bought back 3 million
shares.

579
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:03,840
The, the average realised price
was up 20% on the quarter.

580
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,520
You know, the divvies kept going
and all these sorts of things.

581
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,560
But you know, specifically he
was asked about M&A and he

582
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,800
called it a a pretty hot M&A
market, excuse me, out there.

583
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,680
And you know, he was really
eager to to just to talk down

584
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,080
the potential and of course he's
going to do that anyway.

585
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,960
But he's saying it's, it's very
hot out there, particularly in

586
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:24,520
the copper space.
There's a lot of questions about

587
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,200
that.
He's saying, you know, we, we

588
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,160
like Canada.
He was asked specifically about

589
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,600
this deal that was done and he
said, you know, Canada has great

590
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,760
jurisdiction, like to have more
assets in country there.

591
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:39,720
But this is a, a quite heated
market and we're not going to,

592
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,160
you know, do anything kind of
pro cyclically, if you like.

593
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,000
We don't want to destroy any
shareholder value.

594
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,800
We've got deals that were done 5
odd years ago that we're

595
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,680
continuing to, to bed down and
see the value come through on.

596
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,520
But who knows?
It's, it's one to watch.

597
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,320
There was, there was some
specific interesting questions

598
00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:00,120
actually about first Quantum and
the, the operation in Panama.

599
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,360
And they did say they were, they
were keen on potentially

600
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:06,120
partnering if the, if the
Panamanian government came round

601
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:09,000
and, you know, gave first
quantum what they think they're

602
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,440
due and gave the the right to
mine back.

603
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,880
That was one he was comfortable
speaking on.

604
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,840
But by and large, he was batting
off a lot of the questions.

605
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:21,880
Yeah, it's when, you know, small
gold and everything's been

606
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,080
bloody punished so much after
the last few years and with gold

607
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,960
at fricking all time highs, it's
it's, it's just interesting.

608
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:34,520
It's there's not more of it
happening, but maybe, maybe

609
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,280
there's just going to be a
little bits here and there.

610
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,240
It's, it's really, you know,
premium assets though, they're

611
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,520
the ones that that stand out and
sooner or later they get, they

612
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,680
get bought, right.
Yeah, well, this one's a bloody,

613
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:49,360
absolute, bloody rips in order.
It appears on the surface, but

614
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,440
as I said, don't know, not in
the weeds with it.

615
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,160
But yeah, she looks pretty good.
That's about it.

616
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,640
Ijd that's our gold fix.
Mate, we can we can segue into a

617
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,880
another premium asset green
bushes.

618
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,560
Yeah.
So have we got any cost, Have we

619
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:08,080
got any substance on this or
it's just the Data Room article?

620
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,240
Substance.
We've got a data room article.

621
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,040
What do you need mate?
This is all happening, but like,

622
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,120
and you know, they're, they're
reporting that possibly

623
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:21,560
Albemarle's 49% stake in green
bushes might be up for grabs.

624
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:27,920
And as we know, TLAI owns the
other 51%, which is half

625
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,520
Tianchi, half IGO bit in
Tianchi's favour.

626
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:37,720
But yeah, like that's I suppose
Albemarle, like yeah, they're.

627
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:39,880
Do do you think?
They got, they got the, they got

628
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,480
the, they got the brine.
They'll have what the brine and

629
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,760
like converter stuff in America.
Yeah, they've, they've got

630
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,160
plenty.
They've got from from South

631
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,800
America to North America to to
Asia.

632
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:56,920
They've got processing and and
assets around the world.

633
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:02,400
But I mean, do do you seriously
think there's any merit to the

634
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:07,640
the rumours that Albemarle would
sell a stake in, you know, quote

635
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,159
unquote, the best mine in the
world, best lifting mine in the

636
00:34:10,159 --> 00:34:13,440
world?
I'll just I'll find it so at the

637
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,800
at the party to believe you.
Got the bottom of the market?

638
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,000
So they've bid.
They were going to bid 3 bucks

639
00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,880
for Lontown at the top of the
market.

640
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,560
Now they want to sell green
bushes at the bottom of the

641
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,280
market.
I I can't believe it.

642
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,760
I.
It's like that's like what what

643
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,800
the fuck he is doing if that's
if that's the case.

644
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:38,760
We have heard, we have heard
people slam Albemarle and their

645
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,600
decision making in the past.
You know that that wasn't from

646
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,239
our mouths.
That was a number of people

647
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,199
didn't speak highly, but you
know that they're an American

648
00:34:48,199 --> 00:34:49,560
company.
We're not quite as close with

649
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:53,920
them but that would be
outrageous, pro cyclical kind of

650
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,639
behaviour and.
Super pro cyclical.

651
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:00,720
I just, I, I don't think there's
any kind of merit to it and I'd,

652
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:04,120
I'd be seriously blown away.
I mean if if they were, I think

653
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,840
every every major minor under
the sun would be pulling a

654
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:08,840
ticket to to try and log a
beard.

655
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:16,040
Yeah, especially because it's
it's making money now like it's

656
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:17,880
making money even at the
shittest prices.

657
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:19,080
I'll just.
Yeah.

658
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,440
I mean, big, big CapEx bill this
this time around.

659
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,200
But even even with that big
CapEx bill, there's long line

660
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:27,120
life.
You know, we spoke about

661
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:31,280
challenges and stuff, but I, I,
I can't put too much weight to

662
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,160
it.
Yeah, but then how, how, how

663
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:34,640
would it work?
Like so if they, if they're

664
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,200
wanting to UN Australia
themselves after being very

665
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:42,400
Australian, like the Kemerton
thing, I'd have to come up for

666
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,840
like green bushes would be
pretty easy to bloody sell.

667
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,600
But I don't know how easy the
Kemerton plant would be to sell

668
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:52,080
for them that that'd be, and
you'd assume both of them would

669
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,120
have to go.
You would everything's got a

670
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,400
price, right?
I mean, if you can, if you can

671
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,120
give it away.
But after they've sunk, you

672
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,680
know, north of US, 1.5 billion
as it was sort of put to us.

673
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:09,080
I, I don't know, but I'm, I
mean, I'm kind of reminded of,

674
00:36:09,240 --> 00:36:13,520
of Manny Dat and how he spoke
about picking, picking good

675
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,120
companies and what not in the,
in the resource space and

676
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,760
picking assets projects, you
know, whether that be downstream

677
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:27,000
or mining assets as well with
sunk capital in them is just a,

678
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,040
a good way to get ahead.
And you have to, you have to

679
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,080
have a long time horizon.
And that, you know,

680
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,920
hypothetically, if Albemarle
were to go ahead and try and

681
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,400
sell these things, then you sure
would be taking advantage of a

682
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,320
whole lot of sun capital.
And yeah, maybe, maybe you could

683
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,960
turn it around.
What what do you think could

684
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:49,400
happen if like so would if they
sold it like TLAI could buy it

685
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:51,200
off them?
I don't think RGI could buy it

686
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,160
by themselves could they?
But TLAI should be able to the

687
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,640
joint venture would like so then
it could be possibly 100% TLAI.

688
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:04,000
But then if they TLAI bought the
Kemerton one as well, it doesn't

689
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:09,040
potentially make Kwinana a bit
redundant or I don't know the

690
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,920
capacity of.
I think there's a lot of two

691
00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:12,800
converters.
Would you?

692
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,200
I mean, I, I think there's a lot
of question marks at the moment.

693
00:37:17,720 --> 00:37:20,280
The, the question on whether
you'd run the converters kind of

694
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,720
relates to the capacity and if
you've got the spot and you can

695
00:37:23,720 --> 00:37:26,240
make money, then why not run
them?

696
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,760
I don't know if IGO, I don't
know if there's any rules on who

697
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,320
could bid.
You know, there's a few question

698
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:36,480
marks on those parts.
If TLEA were to bid though, that

699
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:39,880
would leave IGO still in a
similar position with a a kind

700
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,640
of non controlling, non majority
interest because you just have,

701
00:37:44,240 --> 00:37:47,040
you know, marginally over 50%
belonging to Tianchi and

702
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,440
slightly less IGO.
So they'd be in a bit of a

703
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,160
similar situation to what
they're now in and what they're

704
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,920
criticised pretty heavily for
so.

705
00:37:55,240 --> 00:37:57,520
That'll be a huge, that'll be a
fucking huge deal.

706
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,000
Like just.
Just what did they spend 22

707
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,040
billion for their 25% back in
2020 I think.

708
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:09,640
Yeah. 21.
But if I if Albemarle wanted to

709
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,000
sell it now, Jay's now is the
time to pick it up like that.

710
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:17,920
Could be like who knows what the
future of lithium is but far

711
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,000
out.
If RGO ended up with 49% of

712
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:24,080
green bushes, that'd be pretty
fucking phenomenal.

713
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:26,040
Right.
If they're if they're putting it

714
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:28,320
up for sale, maybe we can dust
off the old money of mine

715
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,200
chequebook.
Yeah, we can do anything.

716
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,560
Bit of script.
Get a bit of script.

717
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,400
I'll run it.
I'll run it through the desk.

718
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,360
Yeah, speaking you.
Get you get a few bitters.

719
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,280
Exactly.
Speaking of speaking.

720
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,080
Of what?
You've been doing on the desk.

721
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:45,560
Who do you think?
A badge?

722
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:55,280
Imagine if Minrez put a bit in.
Minrez, they're in a bit of

723
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:56,760
trouble across their assets,
right?

724
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,040
Yeah, yeah.
With the.

725
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,640
I mean, I'm sure, I'm sure Chris
could get the the backing.

726
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:09,040
He could do do the raise.
And I mean, at the moment

727
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,000
there's not the capacity to do a
whole lot of debt.

728
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:15,600
There'd be a serious amount of
paper that be needed issued.

729
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:19,200
But if anyone could raise the
backing, he would be the person.

730
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,200
But I don't think I don't think
a non controlling interest in

731
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,480
something is probably in their
wheelhouse.

732
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,240
Yeah.
And if Kemberton's any part of

733
00:39:27,240 --> 00:39:29,120
it, then there's no interest
there already.

734
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:30,960
That's.
All out already bloody out of

735
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:32,920
it.
Yeah, yeah.

736
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:38,600
Or unless album Albemarle might
just stick to chemicals instead

737
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,440
of the mining Donna.
Don't know.

738
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:43,880
Who else?
An expensive lesson, Gina.

739
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,640
Gina Line and.
If we got the line down names.

740
00:39:47,720 --> 00:39:51,400
Got the line down stake so
there's imagine that would throw

741
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,240
a spanner in the works she'd I
reckon she'd party.

742
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,320
She wouldn't give a fuck how big
it was just.

743
00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:01,520
That that'd be no shortage.
Oh well, let's hope something

744
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:03,680
happens.
It's just write.

745
00:40:03,680 --> 00:40:05,720
Anyone write anything in the
newspapers?

746
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:07,480
Just get us talking.
I love it.

747
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,160
We're good to go.
Good to go, yeah?

748
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaking of the desk mate, I'll
need my own desk because I can't

749
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,880
get a freaking answer from
anyone about this, but I would

750
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:16,960
if.
What did you say though mate?

751
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,800
What did you say?
If it was my desk, I would have

752
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:24,880
40 million shares of Genesis
Minerals crossed this morning at

753
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:30,640
$2.14.
So Genesis up 7% today.

754
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,400
So about the best of the Goldies
other than degrade.

755
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,720
Degrade's up 7 1/2 as you said,
Pantoro's up over 10%.

756
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:43,080
So yeah, no, I heard it's
possibly RCF that have sold the

757
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,800
stake, which is they're
probably, you know, a one that

758
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,160
would have that much aside from
Aussie Super.

759
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:55,160
So that would that would good
backers of Yeah, well, coming in

760
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:56,680
and all and all that.
Yeah.

761
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,640
So look, it's there's a good
chance of that, you know,

762
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:05,920
Genesis is 8.4% shorted, so it
could well just be a short close

763
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,600
out.
So and I think it's represents

764
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:13,440
about, oh, was it three, 3.6% of
the company.

765
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:17,320
So it mightn't even mightn't
even pop up on the register, but

766
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,240
it didn't look like it was
because it was in market.

767
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,080
So I don't know how much I've
heard it wasn't really shopped

768
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,640
around or anything.
So it might yeah, whether it was

769
00:41:27,640 --> 00:41:29,960
just a short close out or or
something.

770
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,320
So it'd be interesting to see.
I'll short men in four days time

771
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,920
to see if the short interest in
Genesis drops considerably or

772
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,200
not, because that's.
Yeah, that'll be a bit of a

773
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:42,360
tell.
So I doubt it's bloody.

774
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:44,880
Imagine if it was Red 5, that'd
be hilarious.

775
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,680
That'd be good.
Well we'd we'd have stuff to

776
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,160
yeap about for days.
Yeah.

777
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:56,000
So it's it unless they held a
little bit before, I don't think

778
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:59,840
we'll say substantial, but yeah,
it's very, very interesting.

779
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:05,640
Maybe well, 'cause we saw and we
saw 'cause we saw Regal go over

780
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:10,240
5% in red the other week and
that's that's 5% in the Regal

781
00:42:10,240 --> 00:42:13,840
name.
So probably more in custodian as

782
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:18,160
well, like whereas, yeah, so
it'd be interesting to see

783
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,560
what's going on here that I
can't get in will be mate.

784
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:22,600
Can't get in.
I will get.

785
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:23,360
We'll get a.
Desk.

786
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:25,600
We'll get a bit of colour soon,
I'm sure.

787
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,560
That's what maybe maybe of if I
was doing work experience on the

788
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,720
desk, I could have flicked your
message.

789
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,320
Not allowed to do that, are you?
I don't know the rules of the

790
00:42:35,320 --> 00:42:39,400
desk yet, but I will.
JD Africa your home.

791
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,800
You're pretty much your
unofficial home of copper

792
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,040
mining.
Zambia, what is happening?

793
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,920
Adopted home.
So there's been a bit of a tit

794
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,040
for tat between Zambia and
Congo.

795
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,320
And, and why it's kind of
important is because heaps of

796
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:54,640
heaps of copper comes out of
this part of the world.

797
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:59,440
So specifically the the
Congolese side, that's what's

798
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,880
been sort of Hanford here.
They've been going back and

799
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:03,160
forth.
There was a bit of a ban from

800
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,200
the DRC allowing beverage
imports into Congo.

801
00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:11,240
And Zambia has kind of
retaliated to that and said

802
00:43:11,240 --> 00:43:13,040
we're blocking.
We're blocking the borders.

803
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,560
And like when, when I was in
Africa last year, I remember

804
00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,640
pretty clearly at a number of
the borders between the

805
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,440
countries.
It wasn't specifically this one,

806
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:26,960
but there was already kilometres
long of trucks built up, you

807
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:31,080
know, coming in from Botswana
into South Africa and a number

808
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,680
of other border crossings for
kilometres.

809
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:36,560
You could see trucks backed up
with just sheets of copper on

810
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,560
the back.
And that was, you know, that was

811
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:41,760
par for the course there.
Sort of spoke with a few people.

812
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,440
And from these mines in, in the
DRC, there's, there's a few sort

813
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,920
of routes you can go out.
You can go down to the, you

814
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:50,960
know, Port Elizabeth to some
ports in South Africa.

815
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,040
You can, you can go east, West.
You know, they're trying to

816
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,440
build out this libido corridor
that would kind of avoid this.

817
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:00,240
It'd be the train line that the,
the US is backing through

818
00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:03,360
Angola.
But at the moment it's, it's all

819
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,200
going through Zambia and
stopping.

820
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:08,520
This stops copper getting out.
And, you know, let's, let's just

821
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:10,080
see if there's any kind of
repercussions.

822
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,840
Obviously these things tend to
get worked out and it is just a

823
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,640
bit of a, a political kind of
shove.

824
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,000
But there's been a few of these
things in the past.

825
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:22,200
There was one with cobalt not
too long ago with the DRC

826
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,440
accusing C Mock of not paying
their taxes.

827
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:28,360
And that lasted I think 10 or 11
months and they couldn't ship

828
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:30,080
any of the cobalt out of the
country.

829
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:34,120
So who knows what this leads to.
I'm I'm sure it won't be too

830
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,760
much given the importance, but I
think it's one just to keep an

831
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:38,920
eye on.
We've seen these sort of

832
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,520
disruptions in the past and what
they lead to.

833
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,400
So I think it's definitely
something just worth worth

834
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,040
observing.
Mate, JJD, you're getting a vibe

835
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:48,960
at the moment.
There's a bit happening like

836
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,880
there's a lot of up in the air
stuff like between last week

837
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:56,560
with the the whole yen carry
trade and the the bloody mate

838
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:59,960
we've got, you've got Zambia and
Congo, we've got a bit of gold

839
00:44:59,960 --> 00:45:04,960
M&A, we've got freaking block
trades happening like I can.

840
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,840
I can feel bonding heating up.
Mate, I'm I'm completely with

841
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,320
you.
I've got a good ruder markets.

842
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,160
Ruder markets are completely
fascinating.

843
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:14,880
And you know, like we kind of
touched on last week,

844
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,680
commodities have been getting
whacked around a fair bit on all

845
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:21,760
this kind of talk of recession
and all that kind of jazz,

846
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,240
copper and everything else
getting hit under the sun.

847
00:45:24,240 --> 00:45:27,680
But but for corporates and sort
of longer term minded people, I

848
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,960
think there's a couple
opportunities sort of spitting

849
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:35,160
themselves up and M&A is the M&A
is the thing that everyone's

850
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,360
eyes are drawn to, you know that
that's attention grabbing, but

851
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:42,080
depressed prices for like longer
periods is where the

852
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:43,480
opportunities kind of lie I
reckon.

853
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,160
You question without notice
because you see how I said Yen

854
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,400
carry tried so confidently?
What the fuck is it?

855
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:53,720
What does that mean?
What am I saying?

856
00:45:53,720 --> 00:45:57,920
I included a, a wicked article
in, in the directors special on

857
00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:59,240
this.
But essentially what you're

858
00:45:59,240 --> 00:46:02,240
playing at and what a lot of
these traders play at is the,

859
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:04,040
the difference in interest
rates.

860
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,840
And in, in simple terms, you're
kind of taking money in, in one

861
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:11,560
jurisdiction and trying to earn
a better risk free rate from

862
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:15,120
the, the government that they
pay out in a different country.

863
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,320
And it was a trade focused on
the the differential between the

864
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,760
US interest rates and the
Japanese interest rates.

865
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,760
And it all kind of unwound
fairly quickly when the Japanese

866
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:28,840
central bank lifted their rates.
They've had famously low rates

867
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:33,240
for bloody ever.
And they lifted their rates from

868
00:46:33,240 --> 00:46:37,080
zero to .25% and kind of
startled a few people in the

869
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:40,840
train trade kind of unwound.
A lot of people sell out the the

870
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,800
currency on one end, buy it on
the other to try and close it

871
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,080
out.
So that so they were borrowing

872
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:53,720
Japanese yen and putting it into
U.S. dollars on a, on a like

873
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:58,600
some U.S. dollar friggin term
deposit or facility at a higher

874
00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:00,640
interest rate.
So the borrowing at a lower

875
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,280
interest rate earning high
there.

876
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:04,920
That's right.
Yeah, right.

877
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:07,360
Trying to trying to trying to
earn the difference minus the

878
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:09,720
the transaction and other costs.
Oh, there you go.

879
00:47:09,720 --> 00:47:13,880
It sounds like sounds like a
bloody like acdo sort of thing.

880
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:17,160
Like just like in terms of like
getting a shit load of

881
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:18,920
something, earning a little bit
off it.

882
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:22,680
It I think that, yeah, the, the
way to kind of think about it

883
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,280
is, yeah, you're right in a
sense you're picking up that the

884
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:28,480
premium, yeah, everyday you're
kind of getting a little bit of

885
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,840
cash a little bit.
And so and so why do?

886
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:32,680
You run the risk of it unwinding
massively OK.

887
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:37,080
So when and yeah, so when the
when they lifted the Japanese

888
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,640
interest rates, was it last week
or?

889
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,120
Last, or maybe the end of the
week before.

890
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:45,720
Yeah.
So when they did that, then

891
00:47:45,720 --> 00:47:50,880
people started flooding that
money back into the yen, so.

892
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:53,000
Yeah, I mean, you you've also
got the risk on the other end

893
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,160
where a lot of pressure of rates
in the US coming down.

894
00:47:56,160 --> 00:47:58,800
A lot of people talking about
when's when's the Fed cutting,

895
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,560
when's the Fed cutting And you
know, markets price these things

896
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,600
in their own time.
They're not, you know, the the

897
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:06,800
shorter term of the interest
rates are priced off what

898
00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:10,240
happens by the Fed, but
everything beyond there is

899
00:48:10,400 --> 00:48:11,440
priced by the market.
Yeah.

900
00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,600
Right mate, that's bloody good.
Good summary JD I've used

901
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:19,840
previously before I met you I
had to go seek the expert macro

902
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:24,360
advice from Timothy Leonard Weir
next door, but but you have

903
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:27,320
filled that void for me so I
might go last weary as well.

904
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:29,280
We've stopped handing those boys
a bit.

905
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,560
Yeah, they're probably glad to
right mates.

906
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,840
Good stuff, JD.
I like it.

907
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:36,720
Nice work mate.
I.

908
00:48:36,720 --> 00:48:38,920
Like I like, I like intimate
time together.

909
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:42,840
It's good, good for our.
I love, I love learning about

910
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:44,640
things, things outside of the
home ground.

911
00:48:44,640 --> 00:48:48,080
We travelled a bit today in
North America to Africa.

912
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,960
And around the world in between,
yes, right.

913
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:54,520
Bloody Speaking of around the
world, Axis mine and technology.

914
00:48:54,720 --> 00:48:58,000
They're trusted drill advisor,
the survey instrumentation

915
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:00,240
around the world.
All right.

916
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:02,560
Bloody love it.
Who else we have Manny.

917
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,320
Jeez, we've got some other
trusted people here.

918
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:07,960
Shout out to CRE Insurance who
had a couple of pints with what,

919
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,360
a pack of GCS that mobile tell
you what.

920
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:14,520
Call out.
If anyone wants a bloody free

921
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:19,560
audit of their insurance to see
if there's any gaps, any bits of

922
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:23,080
exposure you might have that you
don't know about, give the CRE

923
00:49:23,160 --> 00:49:24,840
team a call.
They'll sort you out.

924
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:30,320
Bloody four for free.
Free, free free MMS as well.

925
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:33,920
Verify spec power and
technology, DSI, underground,

926
00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:38,520
Silverstone, Greenlands
equipment, K drill, and I'm sure

927
00:49:38,520 --> 00:49:42,920
you've seen a spark chart today.
Go look at all yourself right

928
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:46,320
now, JD Copper.
Hooter and mate, good stuff.

929
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,120
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

930
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,200
general nature only and does not
take into account the

931
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,800
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

932
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:56,840
person.
Before making any investment

933
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:59,920
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

934
00:49:59,920 --> 00:50:03,040
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

935
00:50:03,240 --> 00:50:05,240
financial situation and needs.