Forget Valuations. Hard Assets Go Higher (Tony Greer)

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Money miners.
Jonas, you've lined up a very

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entertaining guest for us today.
We've got the wonderful Tony

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Greer, founder of TG Macro, an
old school trader and he, he

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just interprets markets very,
very different to us.

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He's very tuned into the flows
a. 100%, that's why we got him

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on.
We like to challenge our

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thinking, like to expand our
horizons a little bit.

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And Tony, like you said, thinks
about the markets so, so

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differently to us, a technical
guy, a real traders trader, and

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with that different sort of
framing in mind, he still comes

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to the same kind of outcomes,
hard assets, debasement, trade,

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these sorts of things.
So we get into all of that

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uranium, rare earths and, and
these sorts of things.

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And I was just super curious to
learn at how he'd come about

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that, how he got to that same
end product that we had come to

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from a a much more valuations
oriented perspective.

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So I'm sure the money miners are
going to love this conversation.

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Let's get into it.
Travis Ricciardo, we are blessed

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to be with Tony Greer today.
Tony, thank you for joining us.

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So thrilled to be with you guys
from all the way on the other

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side of the world.
This is pretty awesome.

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I listened to a recent episode
and you said, I think you said

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after college you, you spent a
bit of time travelling

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Australia, four or five months,
is that right?

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Yeah, I went there in the summer
of 1990 and went to the West

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Coast, Perth, where the World
Games of lacrosse were being

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played.
No way.

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Yeah, and I had probably 3 of my
really good friends, three of my

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college teammates were on the
USA team, which is why we went

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all the way over there.
And we spent the first two weeks

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of the trip once we got all the
way to the West Coast of

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Australia in Perth at the World
Games.

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I'm trying to remember what the
name of the stadium they played

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it at, but it was at a big like
rugby stadium I suppose.

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And we went to the Aberdeen
every single night.

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That's that's amazing.
They have a total blast.

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Oh, that is that is fantastic.
1991.

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I can't even imagine what Perth
because, because Perth is such a

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mining town, which we'll maybe
get into one way or another in

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in the chat and that China boom
just transformed Perth.

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But the Trev and I were both
young kind of living through

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that.
So I can't imagine what Perth

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would have been like in the.
I can't imagine Perth as ever

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being a a lacrosse capital of
anything.

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Yeah, that was amazing there.
I mean, there was a pretty big

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crowd for some of the games, but
the US is pretty dominant in

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that.
And it was a far, you know, it's

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a long way for a lot of
countries to go travel to see

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the cross, so.
I can, I can imagine that's

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remarkable.
That's very cool.

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That's very cool.
Yeah.

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Many, many of the people we
speak with have have barely ever

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heard of Perth so.
Yeah, I know, I know.

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I'm really blessed to have a
little bit of Australia history.

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Tony, I've been listening to
some of your stuff lately and

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you come at the market from a
very different lens to the the

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kind of more fundamental
approach that we tend to, you

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know, value investing oriented
approach.

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We tend to look at the market,
but you're coming to the same

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kind of conclusions on, on a lot
of kind of things.

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And you've been all over this,
this hard asset trade, this,

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this Halo kind of trade all over
the natural resources trade for,

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for quite some time now.
So I'd love to hear just to

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start the conversation how you
came about this, the the

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debasement trade plays into that
as well.

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What is the attraction to you
for all those things?

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And we can kind of kick off from
there.

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Yeah.
Stuart Jonas, if I were to group

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all of that into how it feeds
into the trade, I would say, you

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know, somewhere I guess that was
October of last year when in the

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analyst at JP Morgan called it
the debasement trade, right.

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And at that time, you know, last
year the three winning the three

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top performing sectors on the
year for most of the year were

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gold miners, industrial miners
and uranium miners.

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And I'm really just, I'm really
dialed into the year to date

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performance race as part of my
analysis in the markets.

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I kind of put it on myself to
have my clients in the sectors

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that are winning at the end of
the year, you know, so we try to

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navigate into the sectors that
are winning and figure out the

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right technical points to get
into them.

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And we got a couple of
opportunities to get into gold

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miners and industrial miners,
while that whole industrial

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while that whole the basement
trade story was playing out, if

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that's fair.
And so last year we saw the

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stocks made their highs.
This year we saw a pullback in

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gold as it's become a risk asset
during the Iran war.

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Yeah, the US Iran conflict.
And I think now we're going to

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see the resumption of those bull
markets because all that's

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happened with the Iran war is
that oil started performing

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alongside metals and mining.
And there's short covering going

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on right now in technology.
But not much has really changed,

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I don't think, in terms of that
underlying current of debasement

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trade, the underlying current of
a bull market in gold and

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silver, and then the underlying
current of Trump's very abrupt

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resource nationalism that he has
changed the whole supply chain

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game with.
If, if I may, and I'm not an

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expert on all of that, but it's
very clear that resource

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nationalism is the way we're
going forward in the Trump

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administration where we're going
to use the military to secure

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all of the necessary supply
chains that we need to secure.

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The government is obviously
partnered up with a number of

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rare earth companies and a
number of mining companies and

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being a direct, a direct force
in guiding them toward what they

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want produced.
And a lot of it is directed

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toward our military and supplies
for the military.

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So this seems like a trade
where, you know, natural

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resources have come to the
foreground.

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Securing your supply chain has
never been more important.

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And so I'm still staying with
the sectors that, you know, may

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not be at the top of the
performance board right now, but

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continue to remain in a bull
market and be very tradable that

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way and traded.
By tradable, I mean you know,

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when I get into the sectors that
prove that they're bull markets,

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part of our jujitsu is to sort
of upsize on dips and then let

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that upsize out into rallies.
And so we try to capitalize on,

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you know, both the percentage
and directional move by being

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little opportunistic and taking
chances to upsize along the way.

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And so sometimes that's really
successful, sometimes it's not

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as successful, but that's what's
kind of behind the money making

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process here at TG Macro, if
that's fair.

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That, that resource nationalism
component is really interesting.

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And sometimes I feel like we're,
we're in a bit of an echo

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chamber here, here in little old
Perth, WA because the, the

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mining sector is so, so relevant
to everything that goes on in in

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the city and, and in this
country.

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So I'm curious from from your
seat, how, how widespread and

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how pervasive is that view that
we're coming into an era where

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resources are going to be one of
the dominant, if not the the the

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biggest growing sector of the
S&P 500 or whichever index

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you're kind of following?
Yeah.

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You know, I think it's it's,
it's gaining popularity.

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I think, you know, I think it
was a big deal when Morgan

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Stanley last year said that your
portfolio's got to be 602020 now

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and it's no longer 60% stocks
and 40% bonds.

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But it makes more sense to be
60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20%

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gold.
So that was a major vote for the

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resources sector.
I think that that helped

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contribute to the bull market
that was going on at the time

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when they made that comment.
And it's still going on.

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I think the bull market and gold
is very much intact, but it

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doesn't feel quite honestly like
plain vanilla.

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Mutual funds have made a big
portfolio shift yet.

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And I think that that's coming
because it feels like there's

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more quite honestly retail and
sort of I'd call it commodity,

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commodity space or commodity
Ranger popularity with this

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trade.
It doesn't seem like when I

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talked to stock guys that
they're that focused on we've

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got to be in the mining stocks
and we've got to own rare earth

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stocks and we've got to be an
E&P.

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And so, you know, I think the
stock guys are still a little

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bit mesmerized by the Mag 7
performance that we've seen over

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the year, the last 20 years and
think that that is going to

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continue.
So to answer the question, I

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don't think, you know, I really
don't think that it's the most

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popular trade on the board.
Certainly, you know, the AI

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trade is certainly sucking up a
lot of capital right now and

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definitely in some form of a
bubble.

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And I'm not saying that it's
about to pop.

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The bubble can get bigger and it
can continue.

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But they certainly have to find
a way to make that whole entire

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ecosystem profitable for
everybody that's so heavily

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invested.
And it seems like that's going

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to be a challenge, but I still
think that that we're going to

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be in a year where, you know,
once we do Well, there was, I

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read it really interesting.
I'm I'm friends with Louis Gov

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And the last one of the last
notes that he wrote was about

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how, you know, Trump has
destroyed a lot of basic

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assumptions out there.
And this is Lewis's work, not

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mine.
OK, I don't, I'm not claiming

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this at all, you know, but in
Lewis's work, he's saying that

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you now need an energy portion
of the portfolio.

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So, you know, the way he's
saying is now you need 60%

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stocks, 20% gold and 20% energy
because you have to have some

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kind of energy hedge because of
the way Trump has changed the

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trade tables around.
So no longer are Treasuries

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immediately translatable into
oil, right?

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It depends on where you're
sitting to be able to capitalize

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on that trade.
No longer does the US command

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and keep safe the in all of the
shipping lanes.

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We can see that with the
problems the straight is having

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right now.
And I guess the third component

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that Lewis wrote about was that
US is no longer this beneficial

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hegemon very gently walking
around the world that we are now

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in the interest of resource
nationalism, more likely to, you

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know, go in militarily secure,
whatever part of the supply

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chain that we want to secure for
ourselves.

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So I think that that that I feel
like that is just the tip of the

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iceberg in terms of people
gaining awareness on OK, like,

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you know, the, the international
trade tables have changed.

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My, my cheap gas supply is now
probably going to be threatened

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for the foreseeable future.
And that could change.

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But for the foreseeable future,
it looks like we're going to

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have some elevated energy
prices.

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The straight looks like it's
been closed for several weeks,

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Really difficult to tell what
the truth is.

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But it's also not something that
anybody has to panic about

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because there has been no kink
in the supply chain.

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And in the US, gas has gone from
3 1/2 bucks to 4 bucks.

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And I haven't even heard anybody
say a word about it.

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And so I feel like that's going
to be something that's going to

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be a little bit part of our
future for longer.

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So I did I guess to get back to
the question, it doesn't seem

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like we've seen a full on mutual
fund rush to get into that

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commodity space.
And I'm talking about where

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maybe they would change their
allocation from gold miners to

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50 basis points of a natural
resources portfolio to 5%.

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You know, or even if they go
from 50 basis points to 2%,

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that's a lot of buying of gold
miners and the prices will go a

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lot higher because there's just
not enough stock to go around.

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So I still think it's in the
early innings of this.

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And if I had to make a bed, I
would say that we are in the

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first of the first year of a
potential 10 year cycle in

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commodities.
And that's not to say that

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commodities are just going to go
up into the right for 10 years.

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It is to say, though, that it
should be a pretty tradable bull

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market in the mining stocks,
which will continue to benefit

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from high commodity prices that
we're seeing.

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So it's a really, it's a tricky,
it's a tricky game right now.

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And it's hard to have a ton of
confidence in anything that

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you're doing because the markets
are so volatile.

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And a lot of it is based on shit
posts coming out of the White

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House.
You know, whether we like it or

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00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:02,680
not, that's what's moving the
markets.

224
00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:07,320
And, you know, the markets are
starting to believe whatever

225
00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:09,840
comes out of those shit posts.
So, you know, it's amazing.

226
00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:12,760
I'm just trying to say I'm
trying to like, you know, get to

227
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,400
the reality point where we only
have $90.00 crude oil right now,

228
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,160
but the street has been closed
for almost two months.

229
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,120
You know, it seems like the
price of oil would be higher.

230
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,280
It seems like there might have
already been the supply chain

231
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:27,840
issue and we haven't seen any of
it.

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00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,680
So until we get to that point,
there's no real insane urgency

233
00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,320
to do anything other than prep
your basement.

234
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,240
You know, the stocks, the stock
market is really kind of

235
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:45,480
readdressing the risk.
You know, we, we, we had

236
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,360
another, you know, we had
another shake up with the Iran

237
00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,240
war and the market comes flying
back to new highs.

238
00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,640
And like I said, all that's
really changed is that energy

239
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,320
has joined the natural resources
rally and software is short

240
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:03,200
covering like crazy, right,
Because everybody was short

241
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:06,200
software for the SAS pocalypse
and we got to a level where

242
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:11,560
retail was inhaling it down 25%
from the highs and IGV and that

243
00:14:11,560 --> 00:14:14,800
stopped the slide in software.
And then when you have a DE

244
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:19,280
risking hedge funds are short
software and long resources.

245
00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,080
So what you see is the resources
stocks go down and short

246
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:28,680
covering in cloud storage,
Internet stocks and software and

247
00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,040
social media.
So that's really the only

248
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,080
dynamic that's changed this year
with the Iran war.

249
00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,600
And so I kind of feel like a
resolution of that is going to

250
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:43,160
lead us towards a return to
performance in the metals and

251
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,560
mining sector.
Jada, you know one asset class

252
00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,360
that is unaffected by the ship
posting out of the White House.

253
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,040
In fact, unaffected whether the
straight is closed or open or

254
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,880
closed or open or closed.
Enlightenment.

255
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,200
What are you thinking about?
Commercial property, mate.

256
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:56,280
I'm thinking of commercial
property.

257
00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:59,480
In particular, I'm thinking of
Exceed Capitals, the collective.

258
00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:03,200
This is the flagship fund from
Exceed Capital, the property

259
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,920
investment group based out of
here in Australia where they

260
00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,000
target cash distributions of
seven or 8% per annum.

261
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:11,640
They sure do.
On top of that, there's a

262
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,640
capital uplift on on on the fund
as well.

263
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,680
Yep, you're talking about the
Collective, their flagship

264
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,840
trust.
This is a diversified portfolio

265
00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:23,040
of commercial property.
And the best thing that we love

266
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,360
that we've touched upon in the
past, it is led by an aligned

267
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,360
team.
They only get paid if the fund

268
00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,000
works out.
They are rowing in the same

269
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,640
direction as you and the
founders are all invested in the

270
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,240
trust alongside you.
It sounds brilliant mate.

271
00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,840
Money minus check out Exceed
capital, the collective.

272
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,720
I think he's in the show notes
back to Tony.

273
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:43,960
Go exceed.
I find it so interesting how

274
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:48,280
the, the stock market is the
barometer of, of risk and your

275
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,920
brave person to, to say that
you've got any more information

276
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:54,080
than the, the collective brains
of the, the you know, the stock

277
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,720
market.
But I can't help but constantly

278
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,920
think about that meme that's
been so pervasive the last week.

279
00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,920
And it's the medial coming to
Earth and you know, it's, it's

280
00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,720
very close and, and someone's
just looking to the other person

281
00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:08,320
being like, don't worry, it's
priced in already.

282
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:11,280
The risk can be right in front
of you, but it's priced in.

283
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:13,120
Don't worry.
Exactly.

284
00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:15,840
That's what I said.
I said that on our Macro Dirt

285
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,640
podcast, the Jared, Dylan,
Jillian the other day.

286
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:22,880
I said until an analyst at JP
Morgan can't get toilet paper or

287
00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,720
fill up his Beamer, there is no
supply chain problem and it's

288
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,680
not something the market is
going to react to until the guy

289
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,680
at JP Morgan can't fill up his
car.

290
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,160
And that's the only time that
there will be a market reaction

291
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:41,000
to that type of scarcity.
Until it happens, we are going

292
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:45,000
to be, you know, I guess
floating around blindly

293
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,680
wondering what's going to happen
next and what headline is going

294
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,880
to happen next and what drone is
going to blow up what tanker.

295
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,320
And it just seems to me like as
much as the president wants to

296
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:59,160
say that straight is open and
he's negotiating that I just I,

297
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,960
I can't in my heart of hearts
believe that we're going to go

298
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:03,920
back to business as usual
tomorrow.

299
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:07,760
It's.
Very, very hard to believe.

300
00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,119
The, the point on fuel is really
interesting because as, as Trump

301
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,720
has been at paintings to to
point out, America doesn't get

302
00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,000
most of its fuel from, from the
Middle East these days.

303
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:19,079
But there's plenty of other
places in the world, namely

304
00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:21,720
Australia, where where you're
starting to feel the pinch and

305
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,280
fuel hasn't increased by sort of
$0.50.

306
00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,560
It's it's doubled over the past
kind of couple months.

307
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:32,160
So yeah, where I mean, the, the
pinch is being being felt quite,

308
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,960
quite a bit down under, but
that, that doesn't seem to, to

309
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,320
change the perspective, does it?
Because it's a, it's a very

310
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,320
America First kind of approach.
Yeah.

311
00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,920
You know, I think that if he's
done anything that you can try

312
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,880
to make sense of, and I'm
talking about President Trump

313
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:52,000
with his military action of, you
know, snagging Maduro out of

314
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,320
Caracas and making the
Venezuelan oil available and

315
00:17:55,320 --> 00:18:01,440
then going and attacking Iranian
infrastructure and cutting off

316
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,240
the straight and cutting China's
supply off their their

317
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,160
immediate, you know, if China
and India's immediate supply is

318
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,040
cut off.
And then there's all of the rest

319
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:14,080
of Asia, which you know, and,
and you in Australia, which is

320
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:17,800
the sort of knock on effect of,
you know, you guys are getting

321
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,520
some of your supply from
directly from there.

322
00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,800
And if a fifth of the global
supply comes out of there,

323
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,600
that's that's the squeeze that
you guys are feeling now.

324
00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,520
And I can't decide whether or
not Trump is doing something

325
00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:34,360
smart where we're just going to
drill, baby drill here in the US

326
00:18:34,360 --> 00:18:37,720
and really ramp up production
and become the global source.

327
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,280
And then gas prices are going to
go down.

328
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:44,360
Or if he's eventually just going
to open up the straight and

329
00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:47,160
everything is going to flow in
every direction and prices are

330
00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,760
going to eventually come back
down.

331
00:18:50,120 --> 00:18:52,560
So I don't know the angle that
he's trying to get there.

332
00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,160
And I, I do, I feel for, you
know, all of you that are

333
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,160
seeing, you know, more severe
price spikes than we are here

334
00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,640
because I don't know what the
resolution of this conflict is.

335
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,160
And it seems to get murkier
every day.

336
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,920
And then I, I literally have
been watching the Iranian memes

337
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,880
to get the most clarity on
what's going on in the world.

338
00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,240
And I can't even believe that
that's the truth, but it is.

339
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,080
I, I, if I like, if I try and
think of the incredibly complex

340
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:19,560
system and so many different
things going on.

341
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,280
But like in, in very simple,
simple person language, I like

342
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,760
simple things.
Oil prices are going up

343
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:30,760
globally, albeit less in the US.
And when, when you do have oil

344
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,120
prices going up or you do get
inflation, when you do get

345
00:19:33,120 --> 00:19:34,720
inflation, you do get interest
rates going up.

346
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:37,840
And when interest rates do go
up, equities come down.

347
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:43,920
So like, what's wrong with my
simple person synthesis of the

348
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:49,000
future?
You're not accounting for the

349
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:54,160
facts that while you have all
that information, and it has, it

350
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,040
creates A congruous logic path
in your brain.

351
00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:58,400
The markets don't give a shit.
Tell.

352
00:20:01,120 --> 00:20:04,440
Me more.
Because when the market opens up

353
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,400
every day, the money goes to
where the money is treated best.

354
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:12,040
And if that's still the stock
market, and if that's still U.S.

355
00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,840
stocks, and if that's still the,
there is no alternative trade.

356
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,560
Remember the Tina trade that we
were in for the longest time

357
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,440
because you couldn't buy bonds
because they yielded 0, right?

358
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,280
And there was no alternative put
to get pushed out the risk curve

359
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,440
into the stock market.
You know, you wake up every day

360
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,880
and the money just goes and
seats where it gets treated

361
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,280
best.
And if you look at, you know,

362
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,800
the commodity markets, they're
insanely volatile right now.

363
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,080
And the only thing that doesn't
care, it seems is gold.

364
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,560
So that that's probably for me
that that's tells me that's a

365
00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:45,600
good place to be socking them
away money during this, because

366
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:48,680
gold seems to be holding up no
matter what.

367
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,240
And then it looks around and
says there's no trade in bonds

368
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,240
because rates aren't going in
any goal.

369
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,880
The only thing going on in bonds
is in the US is the, the more

370
00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:06,240
rates mean revert, the faster
and harder they mean revert.

371
00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:09,800
Like this is a point that I've
been making for years where

372
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,040
there is literally no trend in
interest rates here in the US,

373
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:15,680
right?
We get a little bit of weakness

374
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,600
in whatever employment or
manufacturing and rates fall to

375
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,680
the bottom of the range.
And then we get a little bit of

376
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,880
a inflation scare because we now
have $90.00 oil.

377
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,360
So that's going to feed into the
data.

378
00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:28,800
Somehow.
We get it, a little bit of

379
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:32,680
inflation beat and they flow to
the top of the range.

380
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,600
And the reality is the bond
market has been sideways for

381
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,600
four years.
And that is bullish stocks

382
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,680
because the stock market loves
stability in the rates markets.

383
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,760
And you know you're going to
have those interest rate

384
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,720
sensitive sectors like banks and
builders have their own

385
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,480
reactions to rates within that
range.

386
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,840
But broadly speaking, it lets
all the other bull markets run.

387
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,480
So there's no bond trade, and
now you're looking for still

388
00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:01,040
every day at 9:30 the bell rings
and where's the money going to

389
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,560
go to where it's treated best.
And you're right back in the US

390
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,840
stock market chasing the AI
trade and the rare earths trade

391
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,040
and the metals and mining trade.
And that's where the money wants

392
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,080
to be.
And that's the best explanation

393
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:16,480
I have, whether it's right or
wrong.

394
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,080
You, you mentioned gold is, is
holding up.

395
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,080
Gold is performed kind of
funnily, like in, in the broader

396
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,720
scheme of things, it's holding
up at a fantastic price level.

397
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,840
I mean, for 4800 ish bucks is
nothing to to complain about.

398
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,000
But what have you made about
that behavior?

399
00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:37,000
And one step further, what have
you made of the the relationship

400
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,400
between gold miners and the
underlying?

401
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:48,680
So it's clear that gold became
front page trade when it got a

402
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,920
name called the debasement
trade, right?

403
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,680
That's what that's where
everybody that's reading the

404
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,880
Wall Street Journal said, OK, I
need to have some protection of

405
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,360
this Fiat currency that I'm
trafficking in.

406
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,400
I need to buy gold, right.
So there's you get a little bit

407
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,640
of exposure people, you know,
the word gets out.

408
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,560
People say, Oh yeah, you know, I
have to own some gold.

409
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,920
Hedge funds are like, oh, we got
to be in the gold trade because

410
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,240
it's a bull market.
And what happens is it turns

411
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,200
into a risk asset.
People wake up in the morning

412
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,160
and they're like, gold's going
up, let's put money in the gold

413
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,160
market.
It's now money we can make on a

414
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,760
daily and weekly basis and not
just sit there with a pile of it

415
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,080
and make 10% a year.
You know, so now this thing is

416
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,440
in motion and people go into the
gold market.

417
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,080
And I think the Iran war proved
during that de risking that gold

418
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:38,000
is the tip of the risk spear,
right?

419
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,480
And you know what was sudden?
We're attacking another country

420
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,000
and gold is going down.
That was a first for me in my

421
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,240
career.
And I've been staring at the

422
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,640
screens for 35 years.
So it's not the first war that

423
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,360
I've traded through and it's not
the first conflict.

424
00:23:50,360 --> 00:23:52,800
It's the first one that I've
traded through that gold and

425
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,640
silver have gone down upon bombs
dropping on another country.

426
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,680
And I got a feeling that that's
just a testament to how long the

427
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,960
market got ahead of that and
ahead of the debasement trade.

428
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:09,800
And so the beauty of it is that
gold put in a good bottom.

429
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:14,280
It put in what looks like a bull
market bottom down at 4150 at

430
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:18,880
the end of March and it looks
like dips to 43 and 4400

431
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,320
holding.
And conversely, if we try to get

432
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,000
out, make our way back up above
the 50 day moving average, the

433
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,800
bull market and gold could be
back off and running again.

434
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,040
And the exact same thing goes
for gold miners.

435
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:35,080
And because now their stocks,
they already got back above all

436
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,120
three major moving averages and
they are back in bull market

437
00:24:38,120 --> 00:24:40,520
mode where they're trying to
same thing with industrial

438
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,960
miners.
Rare earth miners are often

439
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,920
running, uranium miners are at
the top of the leaderboard.

440
00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:51,240
So whether it's gold
specifically or not, the

441
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,400
resource nationalism trade is
on.

442
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,520
We are currently long gold
miners, industrial miners,

443
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:02,120
uranium miners and gold and
those are the four positions

444
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:05,400
that we've navigated into on
this dip since the de risking.

445
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,440
I've had gold on the pad
forever, but the other three all

446
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:10,240
dipped into prices that I want
to buy them.

447
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,520
So I added them to the risk pad
and now we're going to manage

448
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,320
the risk.
But now they're all doing well.

449
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,640
So that's how I kind of look at
that trade if as it all comes

450
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:24,040
together here is, you know,
getting the Iran, US, Iran war

451
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,560
behind us will be key for the
golden mark gold bull market to

452
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:28,880
resume.
Because then we're going to go

453
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,600
back to focusing on everything
monetary and fiscal that was

454
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,400
making gold go up in the 1st
place.

455
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,560
You know, every time we hit a
neutral dog in our deficit, you

456
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,000
look over and gold goes up
another $300, right?

457
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:48,120
Gold is responding to the, you
know, maniacal spending and

458
00:25:48,120 --> 00:25:49,720
currency debasement that's going
on.

459
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,040
So when those headlines come
around and there aren't other

460
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,400
stimulus affecting the markets,
that's what was sending gold

461
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,440
into a bull market.
So I think that that is going to

462
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,240
be back and the whole resource
nationalism thing is going to

463
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:09,720
keep base metals properly bid
alongside gold and silver and

464
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,480
platinum and Palladium.
And so those trades are very

465
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,600
much alive and well.
And they're just facing this

466
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,960
little bit of a torpedo from the
Iran war, if I may, where that

467
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:23,320
shook everything up in the risk,
you know, in the risk basket.

468
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,680
And so we'll see how we come out
the other side.

469
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,080
But my sense is before this year
is over, we're going to go back

470
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,920
to buying metals and mining
stocks and rare earths and

471
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,200
uranium miners.
And we're going to go back to

472
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:38,440
selling technology because those
stocks are not going to have the

473
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,840
same 20 year run that they had
in the last 20 years with

474
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:45,680
everybody clawing for a seat at
the natural resources trade

475
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,280
table.
What's the most crowded trade

476
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,320
right now, Tony, that you don't
want to ban?

477
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:56,720
I still think it's AI.
You know, I think there's a lot

478
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,680
of private capital in addition
to the stocks that are, you

479
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,560
know, semiconductors are soaring
along at all time highs.

480
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,680
Everybody and my sisters long
NVIDIA, you know, I mean that

481
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,120
it's a pot.
It is just just a popular thing.

482
00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:12,360
It's working.
It hasn't tested you at all On

483
00:27:12,360 --> 00:27:15,120
the downside, like NVIDIA, no
matter what tech can get

484
00:27:15,120 --> 00:27:17,400
hammered NVIDIA and
semiconductors hang in there

485
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,840
right it's the it's the AI.
It's there's still money coming

486
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,200
in.
What what does a stronger U.S.

487
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,120
dollar as we've seen in the past
kind of couple months do to to

488
00:27:27,120 --> 00:27:29,800
the whole resources trade and
and what do you make of the

489
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,080
future on on that front?
You know, the beauty is that

490
00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:37,840
gold has proven over the years,
now I'm talking over the last 10

491
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,560
years that it can rally while
the dollar goes up, right?

492
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,240
Clearly gold has been in in very
crisp rally mode and clearly in

493
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:50,160
the last 10 years and clearly
there have been periods of

494
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,560
dollar strength in those ten
years.

495
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:58,040
So I don't get discouraged by a
strong dollar because it's

496
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,520
really just winning the dump
truck race, right?

497
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,520
It's a strong dollar versus the
other currencies that are, you

498
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,600
know, either in a weaker
position geopolitically or a

499
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,320
weaker position fiscally or
have, you know, terrible balance

500
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,200
sheets.
And so I think that that's why

501
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,200
the dollar is, you know,
rallying versus the euro, for

502
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:26,480
example, and the yen, obviously.
So with that in the background,

503
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:30,960
I can know that at least it
doesn't derail my metals trade.

504
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,000
And I think that I can prove
that over time.

505
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:38,160
So while there may be intraday
episodes that, oh man, this

506
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,360
morning, there's a really large
magnitude move higher in the

507
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,160
dollar.
You're going to look over at the

508
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,800
metals board and on that day
they're going to sell metals

509
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:48,840
without a doubt.
But what you wind up learning is

510
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,360
that within the trend, the
bullish metal trend doesn't give

511
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:53,960
up just because the dollar is
going up.

512
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,960
So I, I, I, I keep an eye on it
and use it as a speedometer and

513
00:28:59,960 --> 00:29:02,720
tell me how much gold I can be
long on any given day.

514
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:04,920
But I don't sweat that it's
going to take that trade away

515
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,800
from me.
You had a fantastic line in, in

516
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,720
a racing pot.
I think you said something about

517
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,640
that, that portion of gold,
physical gold in your portfolio

518
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,400
is just a tenant of being a
Westerner.

519
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,160
Like it made me really laugh
because it's the situation we

520
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,400
say across the Western world, be
it the, the Aussie dollar, the

521
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,680
the US dollar and just having
that allocation is, is kind of

522
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,440
sound thinking.
But when I think about the, the

523
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:33,240
narrative and the timeframe of,
of that debasement trade, in my

524
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,080
mind that's been around a bit
longer than the rest of the, the

525
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,800
natural resources trade, the
need, the idea that you need

526
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,640
rare earths, copper, all these
sorts of things, stockpiles that

527
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,160
feels much more recent than the,
the gold trade.

528
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:51,720
Gold is gold is up, whatever it
is up 10 or 20 times over the

529
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,280
past 10 plus years.
Whereas I feel like the last few

530
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,440
years is, is where we've really
started to see the, the rest of

531
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,800
the metals kind of move.
Is that is that like a broader

532
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,040
sentiment that you kind of agree
with?

533
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,440
Yeah, totally.
I think, you know, I mean, you

534
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:11,960
know, a lot of this is a
function of, you know, believe

535
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:16,360
it or not, I think a lot of
isn't a function of AI, the need

536
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:21,680
for AI data center power
generation actually affecting

537
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,800
the metals market.
I think that that's a big part

538
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,160
of the metals bull market,
behind the debasement trade and

539
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:32,560
behind or alongside the resource
nationalism trade, right?

540
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:40,640
So it's definitely observable
that when Trump was elected that

541
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,280
he set off about 11 different
bull markets, right?

542
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,640
There was the bull market in AI.
He's got an AI czar now.

543
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:51,640
The US is fully behind this,
supporting it and supporting

544
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,880
cryptocurrency.
I think he's left now.

545
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,800
Yeah, David Sacks, David Sacks,
I think actually did finish his

546
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,360
term, but what, but what I think
that he did was I, I think that

547
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,600
he kind of kept the government's
paws off a lot of the AI, you

548
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,920
know, I don't know if the
business deals and the and the

549
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,320
rule making so that they can
kind of let them function.

550
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,120
So I I'm a big fan of his.
I love the All In podcast.

551
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,040
And I guess what what was my
other point?

552
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,640
So I think that this is that
that's part of what plays into

553
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,720
the metals trade.
And you know, with Trump, you

554
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,720
know, the US, the White House
partners with six rare earth

555
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,560
companies, right?
So everybody is scrambling and

556
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:31,760
saying, oh, we got to invest in
these.

557
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,120
Now the government is going to
back these, you know, and it as

558
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:36,880
long as it doesn't turn into the
Department of Motor Vehicles,

559
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,400
these companies are going to get
a lot of attention and be called

560
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,600
on to pull a lot of minerals out
of the ground.

561
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:46,600
So those are all definitely new
and that's why I believe that

562
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:49,760
this has been, even though the
market smoothed it out, I feel

563
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:54,040
like it's been an abrupt change
for the world to, you know, to

564
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,960
kind of see what this shake out,
this post Liberation Day shake

565
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:01,160
out is going to be about.
Because if you remember, that's

566
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,160
where, you know, that was in
April of last year, was Trump's

567
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,840
first year in office.
And that's where he literally

568
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:12,480
just pulled the tablecloth out
from under the dinner table and,

569
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:16,840
you know, let all the glasses
and the plates go flying and it

570
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,520
scrambled the S&P.
And if you remember what came

571
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:25,480
out of that on top, gold miners,
industrial miners, uranium

572
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:29,280
miners, solar stocks, right?
Everything natural resources and

573
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:34,520
involved with creating power.
So that I think is a trade that

574
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,160
ties into it.
And they are definitely new

575
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,440
trades, which is why, you know,
I've got I've got a lot of chips

576
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,880
stacked in that direction
because I think that we're just

577
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,000
getting started with that.
And then the charts kind of say

578
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,320
that as well.
You know, we're we're in rally

579
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,680
mode, we're well off the lows.
The market holds consolidation

580
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,040
on pullbacks and I'm talking
about rare earths, uranium

581
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,960
miners, industrial miners,
etcetera, right down the list.

582
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,960
So I don't want to go on too
long without listening.

583
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,960
You ask another question.
I feel like I'm flapping my

584
00:32:59,960 --> 00:33:00,480
gums.
I.

585
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,040
So I want to like, I want to
tease out, you know, how you,

586
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,720
you view markets differently to
well, to, to us.

587
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,600
And, and, and these are like,
these are themes which have

588
00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,560
trend.
They've got momentum behind

589
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:13,760
them.
They've got like, you know,

590
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,680
clearly a lot of of government
support.

591
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:19,600
However, I think of uranium
miners, I think of rare ass and

592
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,880
I think like what it like, I
can't help but think of the,

593
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,240
the, the way I was taught to
value these companies, which is

594
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,160
on some sort of price to NAV
basis.

595
00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,120
And you back it out and you're
like, Oh my goodness, what are

596
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,400
these things trading on?
So like you're, you're, you're

597
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,800
disconnect from valuation versus
just trend.

598
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,240
Like how do you how do you
actually come up with a positive

599
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:43,560
view on on a on a sector
irrelevant of the implied

600
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,840
valuations?
Yeah.

601
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,440
So I've never been a valuation
guy.

602
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,240
I worked at a couple of equity
shops along my career after

603
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,200
trading commodities at Goldman
Sachs.

604
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,760
That's when I got into the
equity world.

605
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:01,120
I left Goldman Sachs after they
went public and had a safety net

606
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,080
to go out and trade on my own.
And I wound up doing a couple of

607
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,280
different things, right?
So I wound up being an equity

608
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:11,679
sales trader and dealing with a
lot of equity analysts selling

609
00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:14,760
research to hedge funds and
mutual funds who were my

610
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:19,080
clients.
And it never made any sense to

611
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,320
me watching.
And then and back when I

612
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:24,719
started, valuations were way
more important even than they

613
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:26,760
are now.
Like if you didn't know what PE

614
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,800
is sector traded at, like you
couldn't dare dip your toe in

615
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,199
it, right?
You have to know where

616
00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:33,360
everything is on the matrix and
this and that.

617
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:39,080
And then likethe.com bubble came
around and just leveled all of

618
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:42,440
the ideas of traditional
valuations and and it was like,

619
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,280
OK, you can sit here and be
picky about valuation or you can

620
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:47,679
make money.
Which do you want to do?

621
00:34:47,679 --> 00:34:50,040
Because you can't do both,
right?

622
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:55,320
And you watch, guys, are you
literally, I watched guys sit

623
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:59,880
there and bang the table that
stocks should not be this high

624
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,400
because the valuations were
getting outrageous.

625
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,120
And I'm looking at them
confident.

626
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,080
Are you watching?
What the fuck is going on out

627
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,560
there?
They're buying them hand over

628
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,240
fist at this level.
They don't care about you

629
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,680
telling them that the valuations
are so high.

630
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,880
So that's where I completely
abandoned as a trader.

631
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,000
I was able to do that.
You know, I have a whole trading

632
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:26,000
background behind me.
Now I'm combo of the salesman

633
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:29,120
and the trader because I'm
executing, but I fully

634
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,320
understood the fact that while
these guys were saying Delta

635
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:36,280
shouldn't be more than a 15 or
20 times earnings and I'm

636
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,560
getting 17,000,000 shares of
Delta to buy from a plain

637
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,680
vanilla mutual fund over the
course of the months.

638
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,840
And they're not particularly
price sensitive.

639
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,480
It's like I don't know what you
guys, what game you guys are

640
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,880
playing, but it has nothing to
do with the way I make money.

641
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,800
And so I completely abandoned
all idea.

642
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,760
I just don't even look at it.
I don't even, I don't want to

643
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:59,400
know how many times earnings a
company is trading because it

644
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,840
just limits my thinking.
I'm a technical guy.

645
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:06,000
I'm a price action guy.
I read sentiment very well.

646
00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:09,200
I know things were when things
are frothy and I know things

647
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:12,480
when things are left for dead.
And valuation just doesn't have

648
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:18,840
any kind of place in that game.
And if I, if I just tie it in

649
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:23,240
with portfolio construction
again, tell me about PGMS like

650
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,600
you mentioned platinum, you
mentioned, you mentioned

651
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:30,280
Palladium and and the other
precious silver, is that all

652
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,560
just like part of the same trade
as as gold tier just

653
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,720
derivatives?
I think that they're along for

654
00:36:35,720 --> 00:36:38,040
the ride.
I think that there are, you

655
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,480
know, some, probably some, you
know, future supply deficit

656
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,160
stories that help them go along
for the ride.

657
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:49,240
And I think, you know, having
been here's the dynamic, this is

658
00:36:49,240 --> 00:36:52,600
maybe very personal and may not
apply to the world, but when I

659
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,880
worked at Goldman Sachs, I, I
traded the gold book and the

660
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,560
silver book and on occasion
would have to, you know, get

661
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:03,000
stuck watching the PGM book.
And it's a really difficult book

662
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,600
to trade.
And all I could tell you was

663
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:10,200
that whenever I positioned
myself to be going along what

664
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:14,040
was going on in the precious
metals markets, I always got my

665
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,800
head kicked in like it never
worked.

666
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:19,320
It never worked in in platinum
and Palladium to try to be

667
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,920
running these up a flagpole
while gold was going up.

668
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,720
And it never worked to try to be
knocking them down into a hole

669
00:37:24,720 --> 00:37:27,480
when gold was getting sold off
and silver was going down.

670
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,240
And now we're talking about gold
being $300.00 an ounce and

671
00:37:31,240 --> 00:37:34,720
silver being 5 bucks, right?
This is we're talking in the

672
00:37:34,720 --> 00:37:36,440
late 90s.
This is not right now.

673
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:39,640
So once I learned and once I
kind of figured out that

674
00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:42,960
dynamic, I was like, OK, these
things are in a world of their

675
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,280
own.
Like I understand that they're

676
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:48,880
metals by by the science of it,
but they are not doing what

677
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,080
these things are doing and they
don't feel like they're in the

678
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:53,640
same basket.
So I have to stop associating

679
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:55,640
them.
So I've kind of done that.

680
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,840
And while the whole world has
not the whole world, a lot of

681
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:02,880
people have, especially on
Twitter, have become PGM

682
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,400
experts, you know, right, just
with their rally and they bought

683
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,400
it and it's going up.
So they become an expert.

684
00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:11,520
I'm OK being in the trade that I
think is real.

685
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:15,000
And I think that the only trade
is really real that I have a lot

686
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:19,040
of confidence in is gold.
It would, it wouldn't shock me

687
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,800
if any of the other metals got
halved tomorrow morning.

688
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,760
It would blow my brain apart if
that happened to gold.

689
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:26,720
And I'd.
And you know, it's just one of

690
00:38:26,720 --> 00:38:29,080
those things that that's the way
my brain is trained.

691
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,560
And it may not apply to the
whole entire world, but that's

692
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,400
where it comes from for me.
That is, that is super, super

693
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,400
interesting, Tony.
The other one you've referenced

694
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:40,840
a bit there is the bucket of
uranium miners and they they

695
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:44,120
play obviously heavily into
that, that energy theme, that

696
00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:45,920
data center theme and all of
that.

697
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,600
So I'd love to get your take on
on the sentiment you're seeing

698
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,600
there right now.
You know, it's they get, they

699
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,760
get uranium's a wild trade
because it's not my trade, even

700
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,000
though I'm in it.
I'd never consider it my trade

701
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,840
because I had guys telling me
about uranium five years ago and

702
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,360
I was looking at uranium and
looking at the uranium miners

703
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,640
and looking at the charts and
they're all flat lines at like

704
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,000
this zero bound.
They look like a dead body, you

705
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,680
know, And I would go to the guys
that were putting these stories

706
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,320
in front of me and I'm like,
dude, I love you and thanks for

707
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,920
thinking of me.
I don't see anything happening

708
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,960
in uranium.
Like I don't see anything

709
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,560
happening.
So we went from that to, I'm

710
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,520
trying to think it's, I don't
have the history down very well.

711
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:34,160
But once the bull market ignited
and I'm sure it had to do

712
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,000
something to do with the
precious metals rally and then

713
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,440
the AI power generation that
really got uranium into this

714
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,360
position.
I'm, I, I, I'm good at riding

715
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,320
trends and catching trends and
identifying A trend and

716
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,440
deciding, OK, this price is a
price that I'll get into that

717
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,400
trend.
And I'll wait all day, all week,

718
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,920
all month without having a
position until it gets to the

719
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,520
level that I want to trade.
And then I sit up in my chair

720
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,800
and I trade it like a Wildman.
Like I think I know what's going

721
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:09,440
on and manage the risk.
So once those woke up and I was

722
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:12,280
able to get into them that way,
you know, once they started

723
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,480
landing on my own technical
screens, like, oh, uranium's the

724
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,720
leading sector this week, it's
got to be on the radar screen.

725
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,480
Finish the month, the leading
sector of the month got to be on

726
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,760
the radar screen, right?
And that's when they make it to

727
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,320
my pad and I start noticing and
start noticing what's going on

728
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,920
with Kamico and how that's the
leader of the pack and how some

729
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,920
of these other ones are also
volatile stocks to trade, but

730
00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,400
maybe not as important as
Kamico.

731
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,080
Tamco has a bigger weighting.
And so you kind of just learn

732
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:45,360
the nuts and bolts and the
timing of things and see how it,

733
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,240
you know, as a macro trader,
you're always looking for

734
00:40:47,240 --> 00:40:50,920
correlations.
And while uranium is not well

735
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:54,920
correlated to things, it has
been fairly well correlated to

736
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:58,960
this new resource nationalism,
bull market in resources,

737
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:02,360
broadly speaking.
So that was kind of wild story

738
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,240
for me to watch this whole
sector with guys putting it in

739
00:41:05,240 --> 00:41:08,120
front of me left and right and
me going, I hear you, but it's

740
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:11,000
flat on the year.
I hear you, but it's still flat

741
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,320
on the year.
Like I don't even know what to

742
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:12,800
do.
What do I do?

743
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:14,640
Buy and hold this thing and pray
that it goes up.

744
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:15,960
That's not what I do for a
living.

745
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,320
So I'm not in this trade until
it gets going.

746
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:23,080
So from there you get all the
way to a, you know, to A, to I

747
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:27,600
guess a level where it got
overbought with alongside the

748
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,320
need for AI data center power
generation.

749
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,880
And now we've just got a good
old fashioned bull and bear

750
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:37,440
market case in uranium.
And broadly speaking, there's a

751
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:42,880
supply deficit and an increased
usage story that I can get

752
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,800
behind and want to manage the
risk from the long side it

753
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:49,760
right, we're going to have a
bigger deficit by 20-30.

754
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,640
There's going to be more
implementation.

755
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,960
Trump is definitely well behind
nuclear usage.

756
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,040
And I think Chris Wright, the
energy secretary is is got

757
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:04,160
unbelievable history in uranium.
So all roads lead to that

758
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,200
becoming a more popular source
of power generation for me.

759
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,040
And if that happens, the price
uranium goes up and all of the

760
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,560
miners wind up making more
money.

761
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,200
Tony, it's been incredibly
entertaining speaking with you

762
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:20,440
and an absolute delight to get
get your way of thinking on our

763
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,280
on our podcast.
Do you think differently to us?

764
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:23,960
But it's it's certainly value
additive.

765
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,200
Thank you so much.
I'm really honoured that you

766
00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:31,400
guys thought of me and and had
me on and adjusted to the time

767
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:32,880
zones from all the way around
the world.

768
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:34,480
I can't thank you guys enough
for doing that.

769
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,080
Thanks to Tony for jumping on
and sharing his A Technical View

770
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:41,720
of the World and a massive thank
you to our awesome partners.

771
00:42:41,720 --> 00:42:46,040
Sandbic Ground Support, Exceed
Capital Intralinks Focus, The

772
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,160
Platform by market Tech and
metals hub.

773
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:49,680
Hoodoo.
Hoodoo.

774
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,800
Now remember, I'm an idiot.
JD is an idiot.

775
00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,200
If you thought any of this was
anything other than

776
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,840
entertainment, you're an idiot
and you need to read out

777
00:42:58,840 --> 00:42:59,360
disclaimer.