Extracting value from overlooked mines (Vuslat Bayoglu Interview)

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Righto money.
Mine is another in Darva special

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from the lats.
Now you JD, you're telling me

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this fellow is he's bought coal
assets in South Africa?

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I'm thinking coal.
I'm thinking South Africa.

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That just reminds me of CRE
insurance coal experts and

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African experts in the one
building.

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It's the logical connection,
isn't it?

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Adam Batista is the coal expert.
Tari is the African expert and

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when they're thinking they're
not an expert, Dave Harrison

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walks around and says you're a
fucking expert.

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That's the that is the office
morale.

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So.
That's the thing.

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They're experts in every
geography, in every commodity,

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aren't they?
And construction and

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construction.
Did I just hear a website

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slogan?
Good work JD, thanks, looking

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forward to seeing him.
The savvy now.

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JD who have we got for this
Indaba episode?

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So this is our lucky last
interview from Indaba Maddie.

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We are sharing a chat that we
did with a guy called Wusslat

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Bao Glue.
He, he runs a private business.

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So you probably have never heard
of them called Mina in South

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Africa.
And there's, there's a couple

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reasons why we wanted to, to
chat to him.

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Obviously we were in South
Africa.

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We'd been in the country for
over a week at that point and we

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were very curious in how mining
is done.

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You know, there's a huge mining
history in the country across

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lots of commodities.
So, you know, you hear lots

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about S com, the power utilities
about, you know, permits,

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rights, all these kind of
things, ownership and how it's

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sort of structured and the sort
of challenges the industry has

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faced over the past few decades.
So we thought why not speak with

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someone who actually operates
there, who runs mining

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companies, who has bought
significant assets from the

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likes of Rio Tinto, coal assets
you mentioned in the intro

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there, Maddie.
So that plus a whole host of

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other reasons running a private
business versus running a public

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company.
We thought for all these kind of

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reasons why not just get someone
that's done it and is continuing

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to to do it in that, in that
geography, in that part of the

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world and how it sort of
differentiates from operating in

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Australia.
And yeah, this is the the result

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of that and came to share it
with the money miners.

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JD, you can't make the intros
too good 'cause now I want to go

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past this.
That was sensational.

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Not too sure about that, but
yeah, let's let's share the chat

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with this let and hopefully the
money miners pick up a a thing

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or two about operating in a
different part of the world like

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Trev and I did from the the
conversation.

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Right, let's repeat.
JD, we're at in Darba and we're,

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we're sitting down with Wuslat,
who runs a, a mining investment

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and, and mining company that I
think our audience would

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probably be unfamiliar with.
But that's not, that's not

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because you don't have a, you
know, a decent sized footprint.

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It's just that you're private
and you focus in South Africa

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and you also focus on
commodities that people, people

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are shy to talk about too in
other ways.

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But thank you so much for, for
sitting down.

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We're keen to talk about Minar.
We're keen to talk about, you

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know, how you're seeing the
investment landscape in South

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Africa and especially from, from
your specific Yeah point in the

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world.
Yeah, thank you, Travis.

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Look, South Africa is action a
great jurisdiction for mining.

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If you look at what we are rich
in South Africa, especially

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PGMS, Chrome, manganese, coal,
anthracite, iron ore, obviously

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it's not as sizable as as
Australia in terms of iron ore,

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but we got a, we got some big
assets, especially Kumba is, is

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massive like they do.
Again, it's relevant in terms of

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Chrome, in terms of iron ore.
But when it comes to manganese

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and Chrome, we are the largest,
We got the largest ores deposits

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in the, in the world and we are
the largest producers in the

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world.
We are competing with Australia

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in terms of in terms of
manganese.

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But I believe Australian mines
are, are coming to an end at

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some point.
And Sarav Castle has got massive

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manganese deposits.
We've got Site 32 invested in

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South Africa heavily in terms of
manganese.

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And we also have Asmang.
It's a big company.

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They, they, they've got large
operations, but it's a very

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vibrant industry in terms of
producing manganese.

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PGM is obviously we are the
again, largest producer in the

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world.
So all these, if you look at the

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companies that are playing the
investment business in South

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Africa, they, they invest in
South Africa, that shows that

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this country is actually
something good, which is

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attracting people.
And the one of the most

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important that we have here, we
got rule of law.

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So we got democracy, we got rule
of law, we got freedom of

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speech.
So we got security of tenure.

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So people come and invest and,
and because investors don't like

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noise and we don't have noise
inside Africa, people are

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focusing on the investments.
You know, the people are

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focusing on like optimization
and their priorities.

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Yes, we got certain rules like
like economic employment, which

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is good to address the past like
imbalance.

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And as long as you comply,
government is very friendly,

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minister is very friendly and
minister of minor resources.

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And I think it's a, it's a
really good jurisdiction and

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it's something, it's very
important jurisdiction for the

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mining companies because like I
said, certain commodities,

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certain minerals, we're really,
we're really big and we're

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really, we've got really large
deposits.

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For a second, we just double
click on that point you just

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mentioned with the the black
empowerment groups.

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I think it's really important
for the Aussie listeners to

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understand and a sort of 32nd
recap.

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You see these companies, you
know, listed here that might be

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at an asset level, at a company
level, but there'll be a 26%

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interest.
Can you just quickly highlight

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that?
And then I think the the follow

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on will be the other look.
We looked at also different

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jurisdictions to, to sort of
like to, to invest in

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opportunities in different
jurisdictions and Latin America

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have got similar, similar rules
in you can find the same thing

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in in Middle East.
Like if you invest, you want to

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invest in Saudi Arabia, you find
certain rules like that you need

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to get a partner, a Saudi local
partner in, in South Africa.

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This has been ongoing for for a
long time like they to be able

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to get a license in mining,
mining, right, especially you

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need to get a 26% B partner,
which is owned by a company

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which is owned and controlled by
historically disadvantaged S

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Africans.
So I look at from from this

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perspective, like for instance,
if you look at my business, I

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mean, I managed to be successful
because of the B rules, B laws,

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because I grew my business with
my partners, with my, with my

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local South African partners.
So some people can or might see

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it is a burden, but I actually
see it as an opportunity.

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For listed companies, obviously
it's a different story, but for

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listed companies, there are a
lot of actually ease that

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government creates.
For instance, if you want to

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sell your company, you don't
need to get the company's

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shares, You don't need to get
menaces approved.

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So it's not like something
that's an obstacle to do

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business in South Africa.
Yes, 26% shareholding will be

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given to a local business, but
that local business or local

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entrepreneurs, they add value to
your business.

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They help you to grow your
business.

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They help you to, to get like to
get certain things for the

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Transnet, our, our railway
lines, our ports, you know,

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wherever state is involved, they
go and unlock the opportunity.

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So it's not all doom and gloom.
It depends on from where you're

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looking at.
Like your angle, I am looking at

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it as a positive thing, but some
people might be looking at it as

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a different.
But I mean, the reality is

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companies with the right local
partners, they actually prosper

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and they, they, they have a good
growth trajectory.

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So from my perspective, it's a
positive thing.

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It's not a negative thing.
What's the thinking supporting,

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you know, Menard's strategy
where you you're ultimately

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looking to take controlling
shareholdings in, in, in, in

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these mining companies?
And it's, it's a largely

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operatorship model, but not
quite as well.

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There's, there's this sort of
like, yeah, this, this

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interesting kind of philosophy
of investment which we don't see

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heaps of in, in the private
mining investment landscape.

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So we, we, we got two, we are
doing two things.

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One is we apply for prospecting,
right and and we go and drill

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and if you find a deposit, then
we developed the the mine.

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That's what we did in coal
successfully four or five times.

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And some of them we are
rehabilitating already that we

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depleted.
And then the other one is like

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we buy assets that are unwanted
by the majors or by other mining

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companies.
Like an example is we bought a

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mine from Rio Tinto, it's called
Zuland Enter site colouring and

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we successfully mined it for 9
years.

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It's an underground enter site
mine.

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It's important for for the local
industry and for the also job

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creation.
We bought a mine from a Spanish

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company called Kangra
Operational and they it has been

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in operation since 1957.
We successfully carried on

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operating and we started new
edit shafts to to go underground

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to increase the life of mine.
I think where we add the value

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is more about like being agile
and then like reducing the

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overheads, making it efficient
and optimizing it quickly.

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So that like we, we really save
the cost and we make the mine as

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the low cost operator, low cost
mine.

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Because when the commodity
prices go down, whatever

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commodity is that it doesn't
matter.

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Let's say it's, if it's coal and
the coal price goes down, then

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we don't close the mine.
We just carry on as long as the

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mine doesn't lose money.
And if we can, let's say we

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break even, then we carry on.
And you can only do that if

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you're the lowest cost producer.
If you're the lowest cost,

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you're going to be shutting down
last.

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So with the majors, this is more
difficult because I mean running

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a major mining company like VHP
Billiton or Rio Tinto, I mean

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it, it is not that easy.
It's like almost like running a

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country.
I mean, if you, if you look at

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their revenue, if you look at
their, their responsibilities

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operating in different
jurisdictions.

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So these are like things that
you can't actually undermine.

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But as a smaller mining company,
let's say mid tier mining

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company, we are easily being
agile and we're easily making

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decisions.
And we actually finished the red

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date 78 million drill made so
that like we, we make decisions.

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Did I just hear a random in the
background?

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JD say 17,000,000 drill meters I
think.

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It's a bit of an echo.
I think I heard that.

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Who was?
Who was you were there?

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Who was someone who was talking
Swick at in Darba?

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People from high above mate.
Well well it has to be probably

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someone from Swick cause Swick
are the only people that know

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what 17,000,000 drill meters
looks.

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Like on the way to 18?
Well Can you imagine how quick

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they're going to get there with
deep X punch in 2000m plus

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holes?
Could have passed it already.

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Oh mate, Parenti knows what's
going on 'cause Swick are part

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of Parenti now.
So it's true.

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You want the historical skills
of Swick passed down to you?

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Go become a Swick driller.
You want to say the Swick

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drilling skills on showcase?
Get Swick to drill your diamond

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holes underground.
You go to underground driller

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back to.
It.

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The opportunity to buy the
assets from the majors only

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comes about because of, you
know, their strategy on mass to

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like divest their South African
assets by and large.

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Like is that is that a is some
of the the philosophy behind the

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investment kind of capitalizing
on having, you know, the local

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wheel and capability to actually
operate in South Africa on, on

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mines that you actually think
are lower cost?

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Look, it depends.
Like in the case of Rio Tinto,

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for instance, Rio sold that mine
because it was too small for

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them, OK, it was nothing and
they had a fatality in that year

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and the CEO said what is this?
And then they said, look, this

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00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,080
is Andrew that mine, why do we
have it?

227
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:43,800
And they said because it came
through the transaction that

228
00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,680
they made in Mozambique and he
wanted that to be divested.

229
00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,880
So that was a.
Bad memories there.

230
00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,920
Exactly.
Lots of money to be lost in that

231
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,880
asset.
But but I agree with you.

232
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,720
Like for instance, in the case
of BHP, they made a decision not

233
00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:08,560
to do much in, in Africa, right.
Maybe they got the luxury to to

234
00:13:08,560 --> 00:13:12,040
do that because they've got
really great assets in the Tier

235
00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,920
1 assets in the right and good
jurisdictions, like let's say

236
00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,800
first of all jurisdictions, but
Rio Tinto carries on running

237
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,320
richest Bayman rules, which is a
great asset.

238
00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,280
Which I think they've tried to
sell, though they did run a sale

239
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,200
process at some point.
No, not, I don't know that maybe

240
00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,640
maybe they, they might have done
it in the past, but they're,

241
00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:33,720
they're successful.
Look, it's challenging.

242
00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,600
It's not easy.
It's, it's again in a, in a

243
00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,080
difficult area because there are
a lot of community challenges.

244
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,480
But at the end of the day, Rio
keeps that asset and they, they

245
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:46,960
carry on running it
successfully.

246
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:48,720
They make money out of it.
That's why they're running it.

247
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,320
They've got like local partners
and they're happy to actually

248
00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:57,200
recently invested in opening new
areas to mine that's called

249
00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:04,640
Zulti S to mine heavy descent
mineral sands and then they

250
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,600
will, they will smelt it in
their operation.

251
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,640
So I think different companies
have got different reasons,

252
00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,640
different jurisdictions to
operate in different

253
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,920
jurisdictions.
And also it's a it's linked to

254
00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,480
the leadership of the company as
well, because some leaders are

255
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,080
have a different view about
certain jurisdictions.

256
00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:24,320
Sometimes board doesn't doesn't
stop them to, to, to go ahead.

257
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,800
Sometimes board stop them.
But at the end of the day, I

258
00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:32,240
mean, Anglo Americans still a
big investor in South Africa.

259
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,080
I think Anglo is the flagship
company of South Africa in

260
00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,720
mining.
Blanco is active in South

261
00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:42,560
Africa, big ferrochrome assets,
Chrome assets, coal.

262
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,240
They're very big in coal.
They have a manganese mine.

263
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:50,440
So we got a lot of big platinum
players like Impala Platinum

264
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,880
know them all these guys like
yeah, I don't think we are short

265
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:59,040
of investment in South Africa,
but but certain companies

266
00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,360
decided not to, not to do much
in South Africa, yeah.

267
00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,400
You, you mentioned Richard,
Richard's Bay and I think one of

268
00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,880
the, the hats you wear is on on
the board of the, the, the coal

269
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:14,240
export terminal is that.
One of the directors of BCT.

270
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,840
One, one of the, you can't talk
about investing in mining in

271
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,120
South Africa without talking
about the, the infrastructure

272
00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,960
constraints.
And you know, it's something I

273
00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,000
think you, you probably have a
lot of opinions on when it comes

274
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:31,520
to just the interplay of power
rail kind of kind of port,

275
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:34,720
where, where, where is
investment at?

276
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,240
And what are the, you know, what
are the, what are the real

277
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,680
constraints in actually wanting
to like grow the, the, the

278
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,040
outcomes of the mining industry
here?

279
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,720
Look, we, we had some challenges
in terms of power.

280
00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,880
The previous administration,
they decided not to focus on

281
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,480
burning coal, but they rather
heavily invested in renewable

282
00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,920
energy.
And we saw that like it.

283
00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,480
Our base load needs to come from
somewhere but not from renewable

284
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,200
energy because renewable energy
will never produce space, but

285
00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,160
the current technology that
human beings or humanity has.

286
00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:12,000
So this administration has been
running ESCOM successfully

287
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,680
without having any load
shedding.

288
00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,800
Lately.
We had some issues about 2-3

289
00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,640
days ago, we started having some
load shedding.

290
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,480
But I think, I think they carry
on like maintaining the power

291
00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:27,520
stations.
So ESCOM is, is at least like in

292
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,840
the right direction.
The challenge with ESCOM is like

293
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,520
they need to know next what
they're going to do next.

294
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:37,400
Because when the coal fleet is
retired, are they going to burn

295
00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:38,600
gas?
Where is the gas going to come

296
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:39,800
from?
Are are we going to build

297
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,120
nuclear capacity?
Who's going to invest in nuclear

298
00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,040
capacity is going to be state or
is it going to be private public

299
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,880
participation?
So or are they going to build

300
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,960
new coal-fired power stations?
Is that going to be done with

301
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,440
the again partnership with
private companies or are they

302
00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,320
are they going to build it?
Can they get finance for

303
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:01,160
building a coal-fired fire
station?

304
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,240
So they are discussing these
these things and actually

305
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,760
current administration are
really competent and they know

306
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,839
what they're doing.
They have generation background

307
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,640
and I think we're on the right
track in terms of escort

308
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:19,640
Transnet is we look, we have the
infrastructure, we've got

309
00:17:20,079 --> 00:17:23,319
railway lines as large as
Germany as as long as Germany

310
00:17:23,319 --> 00:17:28,600
has to track.
Yes, some of the track needs

311
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:31,360
maintenance, we need that.
But at least like you don't need

312
00:17:31,360 --> 00:17:34,600
to go and invest in rail track,
you need to invest in rolling

313
00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:39,120
stock.
So currently their challenge is

314
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:42,000
they don't have enough rolling
stock capacity.

315
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,440
They've got some signalling
issues on the lines and they

316
00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,240
have got massive challenge with
the cable theft.

317
00:17:46,520 --> 00:17:49,360
But the cable theft was always
there like it's a, it's a social

318
00:17:49,360 --> 00:17:52,800
issue.
So what they are doing

319
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:56,120
currently, which is the right
thing with the guidance from

320
00:17:56,120 --> 00:18:01,560
presidency, they are allowing
third parties to be able to buy

321
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,200
their own rolling stock and then
create their own capacity.

322
00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:06,800
So there's actually a deadline
on 7th of February.

323
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,920
We, we will as a company submit
as well to create our own

324
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,880
capacity to move coal, to move
enter side to different ports

325
00:18:14,360 --> 00:18:18,240
and to also move manganese
wooden South Africa to our new

326
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,480
acquisition that we bought from
Semenko, that's our 32 Anglo JV,

327
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,920
the Ferra manganese asset.
So that third party excess is

328
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,560
critical for South Africa.
If they can run that process

329
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,520
successfully, I think that's
going to unlock a lot of

330
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:38,560
potential on the rail side.
So on the ports, private ports

331
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:45,120
like RVCT works perfect I think.
And I believe RVCT is one of the

332
00:18:45,120 --> 00:18:49,000
best call terminals in the
world. 91,000,000 tonne per

333
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:53,200
annum capacity, practically
81,000,000 tonne they can do

334
00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,600
easily.
But the rail capacity is is 5055

335
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,760
million which is which is a
disappointing thing.

336
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:05,080
But then the trans that run
ports which is there's a company

337
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,400
called Transit Port Terminals,
they have got some challenges

338
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,880
and they started the process
like for the container terminal

339
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,520
lost two years ago for instance.
So I think transit

340
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,400
administration understands what
the challenges are and they are

341
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,400
planning to put certain ports
into the market to reach to have

342
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,000
a private public partnership.
I think they will still keep the

343
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:31,120
control of the ports, but they
will allow the third parties to

344
00:19:31,120 --> 00:19:35,400
invest and then to run the port
on a on a long term contract.

345
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:41,840
So I think at least we have
challenges, but at least there

346
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,480
are solutions to that and
Transnet and Escom and

347
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,400
Presidency understand the
challenges that they're trying

348
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,880
to address them.
Firstly, you spoke to the point

349
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:56,240
earlier of the, the rich mineral
endowment in the country.

350
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,440
And when you, you look across
the spectrum and Trav and I were

351
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,280
lucky enough to to get a view of
that there.

352
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:07,320
But PGMS and a few of the other
medals in a bit of a tough spot.

353
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,400
And then you've also got this
relatively commodity agnostic

354
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:14,120
approach to what you look at
what you invest what, what are

355
00:20:14,120 --> 00:20:16,960
the commodities that are sort of
standing out where you think

356
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,280
there's opportunities in.
And you're, I mean to add to

357
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,000
that, you have the the point of
a lot of other participants not

358
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,680
being interested in South
Africa, which makes it better

359
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:30,120
for a buyer too.
Look, maybe let's let me do an

360
00:20:30,120 --> 00:20:33,000
analysis about like what's
happening because things change

361
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:37,600
very fast.
Like, I mean, if you look at the

362
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,360
sentiment now in the world and
if you look at the sentiment how

363
00:20:41,360 --> 00:20:43,800
it was about a year ago, it's
completely different.

364
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:48,600
But let's start with PGMS.
So PG Ms. obviously very

365
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,240
critical in catalytic converters
for combustion engines.

366
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,360
And for some reason, which I
don't understand, and I mean,

367
00:20:55,360 --> 00:20:58,720
when I say this, they think that
I'm criticizing them, but I am

368
00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,920
saying that and I, I couldn't
get an answer.

369
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,800
So Angler, for instance, they
went out and they said, no, I

370
00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,120
mean, green energy, this green
energy that it's not when you

371
00:21:08,120 --> 00:21:11,040
say that like they, they
offloaded, they call assets and

372
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,720
then they, they said that they
will focus on copper and they

373
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:19,560
will focus on other, other
assets, other outside copper.

374
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,880
They have PGMS, which is very
big for them, right?

375
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:26,400
And they've got diamonds.
So when you say that like green

376
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,680
energy, then you're saying that,
OK, you're against combustion

377
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,480
engines when you say that where
is your PGMPGMS going to be

378
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,480
consumed?
I mean, I'm sure they had so

379
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,680
many discussions about that and
they decided, OK, we should go

380
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,960
with this copper and green
energy thing.

381
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,960
And I guess one, that's one of
the biggest reason BHP showed

382
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,800
interest in angle to buy because
they're interested in a copper

383
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,320
assets.
But on the other hand, I think

384
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:56,120
this all these green energy
initiatives created a problem

385
00:21:56,120 --> 00:22:04,240
for PGM producers, OK, they
tried to make a vehicle that

386
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,800
could burn hydrogen.
I think they're still working on

387
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,200
it.
But at the end of the day, that

388
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:15,280
affected the whole demand.
And, and the reality is like

389
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,320
electric vehicle revolution is
going to affect that demand.

390
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,440
But there's also another
reality.

391
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,320
If you look at what happened
with all these auto

392
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,120
manufacturers in the world, like
they are delaying their

393
00:22:25,120 --> 00:22:27,800
programs.
Mercedes, for instance, I know

394
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,040
very closely they said they're
not going to go to electric

395
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,600
vehicles completely in a certain
time.

396
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,960
They're extending that deadline
because there's not enough

397
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,480
minerals to go there in the
world.

398
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,160
So and there are other
challenges like you need to have

399
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,400
an infrastructure on how do you
charge the cars?

400
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,440
Like for instance, if you use a
electric vehicle in South

401
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,400
Africa, where would you where
would you charge your car at

402
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,680
home?
Maybe with coal-fired power

403
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:57,160
coming from a coal-fired power
station of Escom.

404
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:04,360
So I mean, so when the auto
manufacturers delay their their

405
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:10,520
plans, that would mean actually
more product for PGM mines to be

406
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:12,800
sold, but PGM prices are
depressed.

407
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,520
So now if you think about it
like if somebody brings me a PGM

408
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:19,960
project, would I look at it
maybe if it's underground?

409
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,680
No, I can tell you now
underground PGM project is going

410
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,760
to be very expensive to develop
and it's going to be expensive

411
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,440
to operate as well.
So I wouldn't look at the PGM

412
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:33,040
project because first of all,
South Africa doesn't have many

413
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:39,760
open class PGM mines, Anglo as
Mohala Kwane, but maybe

414
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:45,280
Zimbabwe, which comes with with
other challenges because I mean,

415
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:50,880
it's not an easy country to
operate, but PGMS is difficult

416
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:58,520
to invest at the moment.
OK, Chrome ferrochrome is used

417
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,200
in stainless steel.
OK.

418
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,960
So you can't make stainless
steel without ferrochrome.

419
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,200
But if you look at the steel
industry in the world, like

420
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:12,640
China last year produced over a
billion tonne of steel and it is

421
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,160
actually 60% of the world's
steel produced by 1 country.

422
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,680
So they need all the manganese
and all the ferrochrome or all

423
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,440
the Chrome that's made in South
Africa so that they make

424
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:25,680
ferromanganese and ferrochrome
and use it in steel

425
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,920
manufacturing.
So now when you look at

426
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,760
manganese and Chrome, then you
need to look at what is

427
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,160
happening in China.
And steel doesn't look good at

428
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,400
the moment because there's not
enough consumption in China.

429
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,840
They actually flooded the Indian
market and Indians are famous

430
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:45,240
with being a low cost reducer.
So now Indian companies are

431
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,280
asking the government to put
tariffs on Chinese product

432
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,560
because they can't compete with
China's at discounted steel.

433
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,680
So China is considering cutting
their steel production.

434
00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:00,760
I heard and read about 20% and
20% will mean the second biggest

435
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:06,640
producers whole production like
200 million tons and that's

436
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:11,640
India.
OK so now if you look at the

437
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,320
picture then it doesn't look
good for manganese and Chrome

438
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:22,960
because it depends heavily on
China and Chrome is actually

439
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,600
even worse because it depends on
heavily on stainless steel and

440
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,120
stainless steel production is
not as big as steel production.

441
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:36,560
So but then let's open
apprentices and say if there's

442
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,920
any disruption, look at what
happened with Jemco right when

443
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,000
they had a problem with the
logistics, then manganese prices

444
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:46,280
shut up.
Very briefly, it was amazing.

445
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,920
It was like a a three-week price
spike and then all of a sudden

446
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,080
prices come back down.
Exactly.

447
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,800
So now actually prices are a
little up now, but they're

448
00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:00,400
waiting for the market is
waiting for China and Saturday

449
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,800
to understand like what's going
to happen with the with the

450
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,280
manganese.
Manganese and Chrome are heavily

451
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,280
linked to steel.
Then if you if you look at coal,

452
00:26:10,120 --> 00:26:14,240
coal is like it's linked to
everything.

453
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,440
Obviously.
I mean, it peaked, the coal

454
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:21,960
consumption peaked last year and
I mean.

455
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,160
Doesn't doesn't it peak every
year?

456
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,800
Just keeps it's.
Picking up yeah, agreed, agreed.

457
00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:28,440
And I mean, look, it's, it's a
lot of it's a, it's a very big

458
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:33,960
industry for Australia because
Australia is close to China and,

459
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,200
and Japan.
These are like massive consumers

460
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:43,360
of coal and especially Japan,
good quality coal and not only

461
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:44,960
steam coal, but also cooking
coal.

462
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,920
So it's a massive industry for
Australia and it's a massive

463
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,960
industry for South Africa
because I mean, coal mining

464
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:55,840
industry is the second biggest
employer in the in the mining

465
00:26:55,840 --> 00:27:00,120
industry.
So PG Ms. employ about 185,000

466
00:27:00,120 --> 00:27:03,840
people and coal is employing
about 9595 thousand people.

467
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,000
So it's it's a massive industry
for South Africa.

468
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,920
But if you look at the global
things like what's happening in

469
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,320
Europe, what's happening in, in
in the east.

470
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,080
So China carries on building
coal-fired power stations.

471
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,720
India carries on being
coal-fired power, building

472
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,720
coal-fired power sessions.
And Europe says no to call.

473
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:27,560
I mean, I was I, I learned from
my German colleagues in October,

474
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:31,200
I was in Vienna at a conference,
but they closed German

475
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,720
government closed a coal-fired
power session, which is 1 year

476
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,640
old in Hamburg, OK with the
latest clean called

477
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,280
technologies.
And they say it's all political

478
00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,600
reasons.
So now and if the government is

479
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:45,920
doing that, I don't understand
the logic now.

480
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,400
I gave this example in, in, in
one of the conferences.

481
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,600
So we got the same sky, right?
So if you emit in England or if

482
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,560
you emit in China, it goes to
the same sky.

483
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:03,640
So then what is the purpose of
like deferring the the emission

484
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,640
or taking the emission from UK
and then everything in China,

485
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,440
it's the same.
It doesn't matter.

486
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:13,960
So I don't understand the logic
of this, like shutting down

487
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,800
coal-fired power sessions and
then pushing the manufacturing

488
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:19,360
and pushing the production to
China, and then you end up like

489
00:28:19,360 --> 00:28:23,040
buying everything from China.
So coal to me looks very

490
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,320
interesting.
OK.

491
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,000
And if there's any disruption,
we saw what happened between

492
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:31,000
Ukraine and Russia and it went
to $400.00 a tonne, which is

493
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,360
like unimaginable, but it
happened.

494
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:39,320
So the energy commodities cannot
absorb any disruption.

495
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,120
It's like because it's our
lives, like without power, we

496
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,040
can't work, we can't operate.
There's no Internet, there's no,

497
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,800
there's no water, there's no
electricity.

498
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,480
So I think coal has got a good
future.

499
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,320
This is my personal view,
cooking coal linked to steel,

500
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:58,040
but we don't have a lot, a lot
of cooking coal in South Africa.

501
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,600
We, we got no production.
Actually, it's some coming from

502
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,120
critiquic that goes to Arcelor
Mittal, that's all.

503
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,920
And our north-south Africa is
not a big player.

504
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,760
Obviously Australia is the
biggest player and Brazil is the

505
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,160
second biggest.
So we are price takers in South

506
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,280
Africa, but and our our
resources are also depleting.

507
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,600
So we got maybe another 10 years
of life at Cumba, but not not

508
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:25,600
beyond that unless they do new
exploration.

509
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,160
So currently all the commodities
look challenging.

510
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,920
But again, I mean, you know,
every commodity has its cycle.

511
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,080
So if you if you get an asset
and then if you catch one or two

512
00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:38,960
cycles, then you really make
good money.

513
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:44,760
So I think it's going to be
difficult to actually say that

514
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,600
like, OK, this is the right
commodity to to invest.

515
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:53,560
But I guess if you buy an asset
at the right price and catch the

516
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,280
right cycle, then you can make a
serious amount of money.

517
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,200
That, that's a fascinating
point.

518
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:03,480
Just going deeper on, on coal
transactions, we saw a number

519
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,360
over the last three or four
years on our sort of side of the

520
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,520
world in, in Australia, the, the
multiples that they traded on

521
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,120
got sort of better and better
over time.

522
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,560
What, what sort of view did you
have of those transactions?

523
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,960
I'm not sure how much attention
you paid to them, but again, it

524
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,760
was the, the majors, what you
spoke to earlier offloading, but

525
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:24,760
that price was getting higher.
Do you reckon it sort of reached

526
00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:28,960
a a sort of ceiling on the
multiples that they'll trade at?

527
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:34,800
Look, I think majors were some
of them were were happy like

528
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,760
they, they, they sold their
assets at a really good price.

529
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:39,560
I think one of them is Saturday
too.

530
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,400
They sold one of their assets at
a very at a very good price.

531
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:46,200
They sold Illawarra.
Illawarra sold their portfolio

532
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,920
PHP.
I think it's a success story for

533
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,760
for Saturday too.
Look, you know, the the

534
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,720
interesting part is like, I
think this is part of the human

535
00:30:56,720 --> 00:31:00,920
beings.
There is a cult mentality about

536
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,680
coal at the moment.
OK, yeah.

537
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:06,680
It's like no matter what, we
must get out no matter what.

538
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,760
But they don't.
I mean, and it's interesting

539
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:15,120
like you, you, you find this in
a boardroom with with highly

540
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,240
educated people.
They're not, it's not applying

541
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,680
their minds.
They just let go with the

542
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:22,880
sentiment.
And I don't know who creates the

543
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,000
sentiment.
Maybe the banks, maybe the, the,

544
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,880
the, the companies like
BlackRock and them, I don't

545
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:30,360
know.
But I mean, I see that BlackRock

546
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,520
has changed now.
Maybe there's a new chief in

547
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,520
town because of that.
They, they have to change.

548
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:39,480
But at the end of the day, the,
the banks, insurance companies,

549
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,960
they all have this kind of
sentiment and that pushes mining

550
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:47,200
companies, executives think,
start thinking about, about in a

551
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:50,920
cult way.
But the reality is like, I think

552
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,560
there are certain companies that
offloaded their assets and they

553
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,280
made good money.
And some companies are not

554
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:00,280
really, they don't care about
like making money or not making

555
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:03,200
money because they just want to
get out of that business.

556
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:08,440
But in reality, I, I think, I
mean a jurisdiction like

557
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,600
Australia, think about it, it's
the geology is there,

558
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,680
infrastructure is there.
I mean, you guys have got a

559
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,200
company called Horizon Railway
Line company.

560
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:19,600
I think new new QLD.
Sorry.

561
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:21,000
Which?
Which which?

562
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:22,600
Which province is that from
like?

563
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,400
They've got most of their
infrastructure in Yeah in

564
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:26,600
Queensland, but.
What was it?

565
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,200
Queensland's company.
They've got rail all through

566
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,840
the.
Well, apparently they they

567
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,880
privatize the company.
I I read their story.

568
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,080
It's a private company listed on
the Australian stuff.

569
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:38,560
Moving like 250, three, 100
million tons of or a year or a

570
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,920
product a year, it's amazing
like and the ports, yes, you've

571
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,600
got challenges with the ports.
We always say see the queues and

572
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:47,280
the ports, but at the end of the
day, I mean Australia is

573
00:32:47,280 --> 00:32:52,000
actually moving out hundreds of
millions of tons of iron ore and

574
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,640
coal and all the other
commodities that you guys are

575
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,640
mining.
So in a jurisdiction like

576
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,680
Australia, I think there will
always be a customer for a coal

577
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,840
asset, there'll always be a
customer for a coal asset, as

578
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,280
long as the quality is right.
It can be steam coal, it can be

579
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,360
cooking coal.
And I think there's there's

580
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:12,400
money to be made in coal.
How do you think about the the

581
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,400
substitution of a in South
Africa and then across the

582
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,320
world, you know, with natural
gas in, in some parts being

583
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:23,400
very, very competitively priced,
is that put a put a ceiling on

584
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,920
on?
Yeah, look, we're the global

585
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:30,000
land.
Handling LNG or natural gas is

586
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:34,320
like not that easy because like
if you're producing and if

587
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,000
you've got your own pipeline
that's yes, fine, fine, you can,

588
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,240
you can do that, you can
distribute it.

589
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:44,800
But South Africa, South Africa
system is not designed according

590
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:49,520
to that because we don't have
gas here, even though some

591
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,160
people are saying that they
found gas, But I mean, finding

592
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,600
gas and making it commercial
viable is a different thing.

593
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:57,480
What people don't understand is
the following.

594
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,160
They should go and read like
look at United States journey.

595
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:07,800
They started in 1974 and it took
30 years for them to

596
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,639
commercialize it.
They're, they're, they're

597
00:34:10,639 --> 00:34:15,080
mining, they're extracting the
gas from the, from the rock, but

598
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:20,120
it, it took a long time to, to
drill horizontally and then get

599
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:24,800
the, the, the, the trapped gas
in the, in the rocks.

600
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:30,199
So if you have an asset in South
Africa, that doesn't mean that

601
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,159
you're going to start like
generating gas tomorrow.

602
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:36,560
And then you can, you can burn
gas in, in, in 12 months time.

603
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,080
It's, it doesn't work like that.
People need to understand that

604
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:45,040
that different dynamics of
making gas fields work.

605
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:49,960
And sometimes it doesn't work.
So if you don't have the gas

606
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:53,679
resource, then you rely on
getting LNG like Germany.

607
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,280
So Germany was relying on on
Russian gas.

608
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,280
And when there is a conflict and
they're in trouble, like then

609
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,840
they created the LNG receiving
facilities.

610
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,360
Now they're in trouble again.
Now Trump is actually telling

611
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:08,720
them, listen, if you don't buy
American gas, I'm going to, I'm

612
00:35:08,720 --> 00:35:11,880
going to put tariffs on you.
So they are between Russia and

613
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:16,880
US because they decided not to
build nuclear and they decided

614
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,360
to stop their coal-fired power
sections.

615
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,680
Under normal circumstances, they
should have not done.

616
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,520
They shouldn't.
They should have not closed the

617
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,520
coal-fired power sections and
they should build nuclear power

618
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,320
sections.
So they were worried about the

619
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,240
safety.
But France is full of nuclear

620
00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:33,800
power sections.
If anything goes wrong, God

621
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:38,040
forbid in France with any
nuclear fired power sections,

622
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:39,360
it's going to affect the whole
Europe, right?

623
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,240
Everywhere UK up to Greece,
everybody's going to be

624
00:35:43,240 --> 00:35:46,800
affected.
So again, I don't understand the

625
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,120
logic.
But in a country where you got

626
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,360
gas, if you got the pipeline, I
think it's no brainer.

627
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,800
Or if you build gas fired power
stations around the coast, you

628
00:35:57,800 --> 00:36:01,640
bring gas in the form of LNG.
But then you are dollarizing

629
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:06,240
your your power price because
you are relying on gas in in

630
00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:08,520
dollars.
And then you are actually also

631
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,000
relying on another country.
If anything goes wrong, then

632
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,920
you're in trouble.
Yeah.

633
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:17,800
Will we see nuclear in South
Africa?

634
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:23,280
Maybe it it, it, it's not a bad
idea actually, because it's a

635
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,280
good source.
We, we got one here in Cape Town

636
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,640
in it's called Danafontaine.
It's in Danafontaine.

637
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:34,520
It's called Coburg and it has
been run by a French company

638
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:39,800
successfully for years, and it
powers the city, powers the the

639
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:44,840
area, which is critical.
The the one interesting thing

640
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:49,000
about like South Africa's
history with it's kind of, you

641
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:52,840
know, down downstream
production, so that ferrochrome

642
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,680
smelters have kind of idled in a
lot of cases.

643
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,880
There's not much ferrochrome
smelting anymore, except I think

644
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,640
there might be two left.
Then Glencore.

645
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,280
Glencore has got three and some
Anchor has got one.

646
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:08,920
Ferro manganese is, you know,
the other one where I think

647
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:14,240
you've recently acquired from
South from Symancorp their met

648
00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:17,800
alloys business with a view of,
you know, restarting or

649
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:21,840
reestablishing with different
technology the, you know, fair

650
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:26,040
manganese production.
But but I presume treating you

651
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:28,640
the manganese or that you you
you mind yourself.

652
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,160
How did how did South Africa get
to the place where a lot of this

653
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,080
smelting like kind of just just
vanished or evaporated or, or

654
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,320
was no longer commercial and
like what would it actually take

655
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,880
to to come back?
So look, because we have the

656
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:47,840
largest Chrome and manganese
also in the world, it is logical

657
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,280
to produce the ferromanganese
and ferrochrome in South Africa.

658
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:52,240
But what happened over the
years?

659
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,960
Some of the ferrochrome smelters
were put in, put on care and

660
00:37:57,960 --> 00:37:59,560
maintenance.
Some of them are shut down

661
00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:04,040
completely.
Currently Glencore and Samancor

662
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:10,360
Chrome, they carry on producing
ferrachrome and on the ferromang

663
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,760
in each side, there's only one
side that's called it's a Cato

664
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:16,720
Ridge operation of S Meng.
But they're apparently closing

665
00:38:16,720 --> 00:38:19,760
in three months time.
So how did we come to this point

666
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:23,880
is the following.
First of all, ESCOM started

667
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:28,400
failing to give them power.
When you don't have consistent

668
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,200
power, you can't run this matter
and an S com increase the prices

669
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:35,200
in an in a high-priced
environment, you become

670
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:37,880
uncompetitive.
OK.

671
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:44,520
And also what happened is like
over the years, China wanted to

672
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:50,600
buy ore, raw ore and then they
wanted to benefitiate in China

673
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:57,280
because every Ferro Chrome or
ferro manganese smelter means in

674
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,440
China means Chinese job.
And South Africa unfortunately

675
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:11,520
missed the train in this whole
thing because of especially the

676
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,400
unavailability of power and the
high price of power.

677
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:19,960
And obviously Transnet played a
role because they didn't give

678
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,560
the service to Chrome and Ferro
Chrome and Ferro Manganese

679
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:27,520
services properly and ended up
like having a situation where

680
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,920
producing Ferra manganese or
Feracom in South Africa became

681
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:36,720
very, very expensive.
So what we are trying to do at

682
00:39:36,720 --> 00:39:43,480
the moment is we have first of
all SAT 32 was actually

683
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:49,120
maintaining the asset Metalos
and we made a deal with SAT 32

684
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:55,320
Anglo JB Samancorp Manganese to
give them the credit like they

685
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,680
really kept asset in in a good
condition.

686
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:03,400
So they have 4 furnaces and they
had the care and maintenance

687
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:08,720
team and I was not expecting
less.

688
00:40:08,720 --> 00:40:11,720
But I can tell you now they
started it too serious about

689
00:40:11,720 --> 00:40:14,560
these kind of things.
And when they do a deal they are

690
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,400
for them they are they are
offloading an asset.

691
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,160
But for them the legacy is
critical.

692
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:22,280
So they don't want to leave
something.

693
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,560
That they harm the environment
or they harm the community.

694
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,400
I think that.
They're on the hook for it if if

695
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,360
it does right, even even post
sales I.

696
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:33,160
Mean we, we, we saw companies
they don't care about these kind

697
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,200
of things, but I mean my
experience with S 32 and Rio

698
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:39,280
Tinto was that they're really
serious about these kind of

699
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:44,800
matters after health and safety
of their people, the second most

700
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,760
important thing is that making
sure that environmental issues

701
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:54,600
are at the like at their focus.
So they have 4 furnaces, 50 MW

702
00:40:54,600 --> 00:41:00,680
each and like to run a furnace
and it was the largest

703
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:05,720
ferromanganese asset in the
world when they put it on care

704
00:41:05,720 --> 00:41:11,440
and maintenance in 2020.
And obviously when they put it

705
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:15,080
on care and maintenance, that
market went to to China.

706
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:19,840
They they carried on producing
ferromanganese and they also had

707
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:24,720
and by the way like two of the
furnaces was built in 2015 and

708
00:41:24,720 --> 00:41:28,000
they, they put it on care meters
in 2020, quite quite young,

709
00:41:28,240 --> 00:41:32,800
quite like new.
They have A50 MW gas fired power

710
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:36,080
station on site.
And the idea is like initially

711
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:42,920
we would like to start, start
the furnaces with S compower and

712
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:47,240
get the capacity if you can get
from Transnet to take the ore to

713
00:41:47,240 --> 00:41:51,520
the plant and then to take the
product to the port if you

714
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:52,760
can't.
And we would like to create our

715
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,520
own capacity on the rail.
But at some point we would like

716
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,160
to start creating our own power
from coal.

717
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,680
And it's going to be very
controversial because people

718
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,040
think that there'll be no
funding for coal, coal-fired

719
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:10,320
power stations in South Africa.
Yes, maybe not local, but I

720
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,960
believe that there will be money
to be invested in coal-fired

721
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:16,400
power capacity.
We would like to create 600

722
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,240
megawatts and 200 will be used
in the plant.

723
00:42:19,240 --> 00:42:22,640
And then we can, we can sell the
rest to the to the grid.

724
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:27,880
But if I come back to you, what
you asked, the main reason why

725
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,120
they went into trouble all these
ferro alloy smelters was because

726
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:36,120
of power unavailability, power
price, transit not performing,

727
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:42,000
delivering.
And also in some instances DTI

728
00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:43,960
didn't protect them with the
tariffs.

729
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:48,600
I mean, some people criticize
that like because that's, that's

730
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,240
protectionism.
But at the end of the day, if

731
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,520
you have to, you have to protect
your industries.

732
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:56,920
Otherwise you export the jobs to
to China.

733
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:03,040
So you, you, you, you think that
there should be greater, great,

734
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,920
greater tariffs imposed on the
export of of these products to

735
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,640
China.
No, not, not really.

736
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:14,040
Like when I say tariffs, it
could have been more about like

737
00:43:14,720 --> 00:43:17,480
say for instance, local
companies like Arcelor Mittal

738
00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:21,200
and they need to use ferrochrome
or ferro manganese instead of

739
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:23,880
like buying it from local
companies, they might end up

740
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,280
buying from India or China.
So I'm talking about that, that

741
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:31,160
that kind of tariff because I
mean looking for tariff, for

742
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,560
instance, for exporting your
ore.

743
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:39,520
I think it's a bit like
controversial because it will

744
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:43,000
then it will defeat the purpose
of like creating jobs because I

745
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:48,800
mean, if you stop like moving
less, if you stop, if you start

746
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,800
moving less ore, that will mean
that you're going to start

747
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,760
losing jobs.
So I'm, I'm not for it.

748
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:58,160
I'm against it like, but but
maybe protecting the imports

749
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,680
coming from India and China in
terms of Ferrer alloys could

750
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,960
have been important.
But it's irrelevant now because

751
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:10,440
Arcelor Mittal, which is the
biggest steel manufacturing in

752
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,960
South Africa, is in trouble.
They already said that they're

753
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,920
going to stop producing long
steel and there's a big kind of

754
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:21,880
discussion around that.
But the reality is not they're

755
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,800
not doing well because again,
the steel price is not good.

756
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:28,760
Steel industry in the world is
not doing well at the moment.

757
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,440
In what sort of, you know,
ballpark figures with the, you

758
00:44:33,440 --> 00:44:36,280
know, with the tariffs at that
time being appropriate?

759
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:41,120
I mean we've generally have a
free market approach the way

760
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:43,880
we've seen these things and it
can be a bit of a slippery

761
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,560
slope.
How do you how do you kind of

762
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,000
see an appropriate level?
For me, are you, are you asking

763
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:52,240
for now or for the for the past?
Had you recommended at the time

764
00:44:52,240 --> 00:44:55,560
to put a a tariff on imports
from India or what have you?

765
00:44:56,200 --> 00:45:00,280
Look, the The thing is like
it's, it's almost like like

766
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:03,040
textiles.
Think about it like if you

767
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:06,560
produce textiles in Cape Town
and if you still allow Chinese

768
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:12,360
to to supply textile cheap
because I mean, let's say a

769
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,120
factory can produce 100,000
shirts here in China, they

770
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:17,560
produce 100 million.
How do you compete with it's

771
00:45:17,560 --> 00:45:19,920
impossible.
So how do you create the

772
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:26,000
capacity in South Africa to, to
to do your own things like which

773
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:29,960
will result in creating jobs.
So it's the same thing like if

774
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,720
your local steel manufacturers
steel produces by ferromanganese

775
00:45:34,720 --> 00:45:40,120
and ferrochrome from China or
from India, then then you need

776
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:44,800
to decide they maybe put like a
10% or 15% or 5%, whatever it is

777
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:52,600
tariffs so that like your local
guys become competitive, OK.

778
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,560
Looks like thank you so much for
for joining us.

779
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,120
We've yeah, really appreciated
your insights and.

780
00:45:58,120 --> 00:45:59,680
It was a good chat.
Wicked thank.

781
00:45:59,720 --> 00:46:00,200
You.
Thank you, mate.

782
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,360
Thank you.
There we go, mate.

783
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:04,760
What do you reckon?
Loved it?

784
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:06,720
No.
I'm going to listen to it after.

785
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,160
Fantastic.
You know who I do love though?

786
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:10,600
Maddie, I think you know this
one.

787
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,360
WA water Boys.
WA.

788
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,880
Water Boys, Gerard James and
also I'll trick you there with

789
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:21,560
the order mineral mining
services MMS.

790
00:46:21,720 --> 00:46:24,320
Grounded.
Samvik Ground Support.

791
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,160
Derek, Kurt.
CR insurance in the show.

792
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:27,920
Top of the show.
K Drill.

793
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,960
Swig also in the show, 17
millimetres drilled.

794
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:35,160
By Quattro Project Engineering
Pace Plant gurus.

795
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:36,800
We're almost there.
Last but not least.

796
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,840
Tim Taylor, Crossbound energy.
Crossboundary Energy.

797
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:43,760
The Champions change your name
to Tim Taylor that why not from

798
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:48,640
1 conference to another mate get
your tickets as IM 100 bucks off

799
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,080
underground operators.
I've got 100 bucks off mine

800
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,080
because I was smart.
You can get it too get in the

801
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:58,480
show notes.
The information contained in

802
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,280
this episode of Money of Mine is
of general nature only and does

803
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:04,040
not take into account the
objectives, financial situation

804
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,120
or needs of any particular
person.

805
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,480
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

806
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,520
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

807
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,200
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.