Nov. 25, 2024

Do diamond miners have a future? (Paul Zimnisky)

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We wanted to learn more about diamonds, so we brought on the expert.

Paul Zimnisky has been an independent consultant analysing the diamond for over a decade, so we used the chance to learn about lab grown diamonds, the viability of the diamond mining industry, what will happen to De Beers, his contrarian industry takes and more.


Paul's site: www.paulzimnisky.com

 

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(0:00:00)Introduction

(0:04:37)What led to the breakup of De Beers

(0:14:11)Lab grown diamonds

(0:17:41)Price makers and diamond marketing

(0:18:29)How many diamond mines are making money?

(0:21:16)Are lab diamond growers making money?

(0:24:28)Botswana GDP dependency on diamond industry

(0:27:51)Anglo American divesting De Beers

(0:32:03)Alrosa

(0:34:40)Will mined diamond prices go up in 10 years?

(0:37:50)Mine supply

(0:39:50)Contrarian views

(0:43:25)What should you propose to the Mrs with?

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All right, money miners, we've
got a a pretty exciting chat to

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00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,960
give you today.
A few weeks ago we we started

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00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:09,320
talking about the topics of of
diamonds and we said we'd get on

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00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:12,440
somebody that knew an awful lot
more about the space than

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00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:13,920
ourselves.
And we've done so.

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00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,800
We've got Paul Zumnisky here
with us, the the expert, the go

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00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,200
to consultant for the diamond
space.

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00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,440
So thanks for all for making the
time and coming on money of

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00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,280
mine.
Yeah, thanks.

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00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:25,600
Thanks for the info.
I love the show.

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So I, I thought the, the kind of
cool spot to start this

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conversation is the, the highs
and lows and a brief sort of

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00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,320
history of the diamond market.
It's such a fascinating

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commodity.
There's so many, you know,

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00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,360
unique parts of the, the history
relative to other commodities.

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00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,160
So, yeah, I thought a cool
place, Paul, would be if you

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00:00:46,160 --> 00:00:49,920
could give us a bit of an and
update our background that kind

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00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:53,000
of brings us to the present day
and we can kind of go from there

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00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,920
talking about lab grown diamonds
and everything in the unique

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00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,440
point in time that we're now in.
Well, preface it, we know very

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00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:02,040
little other than the fact that
the Bee is literally like had a

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monopoly.
Like when does that ever happen

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in commodity markets?
You know, one single company has

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a monopoly.
But yeah, we'd love, we'd love

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your insights.
Yeah.

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I mean, so the history is quite
interesting, like you probably

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read in your uni textbooks and
what was a monopoly that was

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dismantled probably between 2000
and 2005.

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So you know, where we are today,
it's still, I would say, like an

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oligopoly.
If we would look at say, the

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beers and the Russians, they
combined, you know, produce, you

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know, upwards of 2/3 of global
supply.

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So the industry structure, at
least upstream is very

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concentrated in that way.
And you know, I guess if we just

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look at, you know, the, the, the
way the industry, you know,

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looks at, at pricing today that
the major producers like the

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beers and, and the Russians,
they typically sell via

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contract.
And, and I would say it's, it's

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maybe, you know, similar to the
way that say that near the

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potash market operates or the
uranium market, these kind of

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more unique, you know, you know,
mining industries.

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I, I think what makes diamonds
even more complicated is it's a,

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it's a, you know, it's a non
fungible asset.

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00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,360
You know, you, you buy oil by
the by the barrel, you sell, you

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know, gold by, by the ounce.
With diamonds, you literally

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have 1020 thousand different
categories because you have all

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these different sizes, these
different qualities, different

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shapes, different colours,
different clarities, I mean the

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list goes on and on.
And it kind of makes the pricing

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dynamic a lot more complicated.
And, and what you see in the, in

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the trade, if you're a mining
company, you're selling rough

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diamonds, you're selling to a
cutter and polisher and

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manufacturer, they're probably
in India.

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And all these, you know,
manufacturers, there's probably,

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you know, 10,000 of them.
And, you know, they all

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specialise in certain, you know,
you know, certain, you know,

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categories of diamond and they
want consistent supply of those

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certain categories.
And, and that's kind of like

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maybe the, the, the, the
backbone as to why, you know,

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the, the, the major diamond
miners sell diamonds the way

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they do via contract, because
they basically take all their

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supply, they kind of aggregate
it based on the, the, the

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certain categories.
And then they sell it to the,

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you know, the, the customer that
ultimately wants those

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categories.
So the manufacturer wants

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consistent supply and then you
know what the what say the beers

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know Rosa get a roses, the the
major Russian miner.

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They, you know, essentially got
to to set the price and, and,

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you know, overtime, there's been
relationships that have build

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and, you know, these
manufacturers are, are

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essentially comfortable, you
know, paying the price that the

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that the mining company sets.
So when I talked about contract,

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you know, selling that, that's
basically what I'm talking

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about.
Now the other state, third of

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the market is, is more
independent, you know, smaller

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producers and they're going to
sell either via, you know,

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contract, I'm sorry, they're
going to sell either via, you

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know, auction or tender, or
maybe they have a key investor

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and there's an offtake.
So that's that's kind of the way

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the market works.
You know, at the end of the day,

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I think you know that the price
is ultimately due, you know,

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certainly, you know, reflect
what's going on in the market.

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But given that, you know, the,
the, the bulk of, of diamonds

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are priced via contract, there's
probably less volatility and

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prices, at least historically
because of that.

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But when demands down, you know,
the, the, the miners will, you

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know, hold back supply or
they'll adjust, you know, prices

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and try to allow their customers
to kind of regain profitability.

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So I mean that there are the,
the, the typical, you know,

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market dynamics and play, but
it's, it's certainly a little

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bit different because of the way
that most are sold via contract.

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So if we tap into the history a
bit more to understand the the

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present, is it right in my
thinking that it was really the

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the discovery of the Canadian
mines mixed with Argyll and and

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00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,480
Rio Tinto as well as our Rosso
coming into the mine coming into

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the market rather throughout the
90s that ultimately led to the

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the breakup in the monopoly of
De Beers?

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Or is is it a bit different in
your view?

99
00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:06,160
No, I think that was, you know,
it was multivariate.

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There were, there were a few
factors.

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I might, I think the big ones
that was like it was antitrust

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legislation in the US and in and
in Europe.

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So I think that was kind of the
the major catalyst.

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And again, it kind of happened
over time.

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It took, you know, I would say a
good, you know, four or five

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years, you know, but by the
time, you know, did the beers

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basically sold off their
strategic stockpile?

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But I think when we look at
like, you know, industry

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fundamentals, you know, over the
last, you know, you know, you

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know, 25 years, I think, you
know, front and centre is the

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industry still kind of trying to
find its footing, you know,

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following that, that major
structural change, kind of going

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from a monopoly to it to Morgan
oligopoly.

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And there's more competitors in
the market, there's more, you

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know, pricing dynamics at play.
And you know, the, the industry

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was, was, was probably a better
industry for the participants

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when it was a monopoly, right.
So you know, that that's kind of

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been kind of the big change and
it's kind of the, the elephant

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in the room that people don't
really, you know, seem to

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acknowledge.
But I think the industry still

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kind of trying to digest that
that change.

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So now you've got the the
presence of the the lab grown

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makers to start with, who who
really drove that?

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Who were the big companies that
are now the the big plays in the

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the lab grown diamond space?
Yeah.

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00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,240
So that's an interesting, you
know, background there as well.

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So I mean, we've been producing,
you know, synthetic or or

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manufactured diamond for, you
know, since probably the 1950s.

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00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:41,280
We've had the technology, you
know, probably 95% of diamonds

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used for, say, an industrial
abrasive application.

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If you have, you know, a certain
piece of, you know, construction

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equipment or specialty, you
know, you know, tool that cuts

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aeroplane windows or, you know,
you just, you know, buy a tile,

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you know, a tile blade, you
know, saw blade for, you know,

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00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,400
you know, cutting your bathroom
tile at home.

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I mean, that's all going to have
diamond in it.

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But the very large majority of
that is is synthetically

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produced.
It's produced in China.

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And to kind of just give you
some context on the volumes

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produced, so say they'll be just
roughly 100 million carats of

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natural diamonds produced this
year, they'll produce 10 billion

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carats of synthetic diamond for
abrasive application.

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So it really kind of highlights,
you know the manufactured first

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the natural and and you know
what the supply could look like.

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Wow, SO100X the volume.
Right.

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I mean, theoretically you can
produce this as as much as you

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want.
Yeah.

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Like you could have that
manufactured product now and

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that that cuts in lower the
cost.

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Curve right?
It's like way cheaper to produce

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these these synthetic.
Diamonds, right?

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It's and it's, it's a function
of economies of scale and just,

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you know, continued advancements
in technology.

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Sound like cross boundary energy
to you Trev?

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It absolutely does mate.
Right, continued.

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00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,240
Well, you think of their
continued advancements in

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00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:06,960
optimising hybrid power stations
for our great mining industry.

158
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,520
The technological advancements
of you know what's what's

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happening in power and how these
modes of powered mate is

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00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:13,760
phenomenal.
It's comparable to like the

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development of lab growing
diamonds it.

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Is well you think of from the
CBE side, they can't optimise

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any more than 0 CapEx, no, can't
go lower than 0 unless they just

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start giving you money.
They can't, They can't optimise

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00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:28,840
anymore the fact that they build
the whole hybrid power station,

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Yeah.
And they can't optimise anymore.

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00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,200
The fact that they operate it
all like fully optimised, but

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they are continuously optimising
how good these hybrid power

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stations are, right?
They are that bloody good.

170
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They're better than sliced
bread.

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It's elite.
It's on a silver platter.

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It's like the perfect model,
perfect solution to power.

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Your minds are in the most
optimal, technologically

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advanced way.
Get in touch with Tim Taylor.

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00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,360
Make make your day perfect and
cool Tim Taylor and cross

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00:08:55,360 --> 00:09:00,760
boundary energy but diesel, gas,
wind, solid batteries all into

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00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,960
the one power board sorted.
But there really wasn't a whole

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00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:09,200
lot of like jewellery, you know,
manufacture diamond on, on, on

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00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,760
the market.
You know, it wasn't until maybe,

180
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:16,040
you know, 2015 that, you know,
technology really ramped up and

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00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:20,320
investment was spending on R&D.
And I think, you know, there's,

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00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:23,200
there's a few reasons for that.
If you look at like the LED

183
00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,800
light bulb industry to use this
technology called chemical

184
00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:31,160
vapour deposition that was also
used to produce polysilicon for

185
00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:33,800
solar panels.
When we had that the solar boom

186
00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:38,240
and say like the early 2000s and
you know, there were people that

187
00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,600
kind of leverage that
advancements in that chemical

188
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,200
vapour deposition technology and
kind of use it to, you know,

189
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,400
produce diamonds more more
efficiently and, and then

190
00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:49,880
produce better qualities.
So that was kind of one of the

191
00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:53,200
factors.
But it, it at the end of the

192
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,840
day, it was basically
advancements and, and production

193
00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:59,120
technologies.
More money was spent in R&D and

194
00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:04,960
we went from a situation in you
know, say 2015 where you know,

195
00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,560
you could buy a, a Drawbee
quality man made diamond, but it

196
00:10:08,560 --> 00:10:12,120
was maybe only 10 or 15% less
and price than an equivalent

197
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,360
natural diamond.
And you kind of Fast forward to

198
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,200
today and you know, productions
just ramped up like

199
00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:19,040
significantly.
It's when you know, you know,

200
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,080
hyperbolic technologies that
continue to to improve the

201
00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,600
economies of scale have improved
significantly for the major

202
00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:28,960
producers, you know, and, and
we're now at a situation where

203
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,200
you could buy, you know, a man
made diamond for, you know, just

204
00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,920
a fraction, you know, 1020% the
price of an equivalent natural

205
00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,040
diamond.
So I mean, that's happened over

206
00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,880
a relatively short period of
time, you know, you know, it

207
00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:42,920
was, you know, less than 10
years.

208
00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:44,920
So I mean, that's certainly
something else.

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00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,920
Industries, you know, digesting,
you know, I think that the key

210
00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,560
there is that you can
distinguish between a man made

211
00:10:50,560 --> 00:10:53,520
and a natural diamond and that
that's obviously why that

212
00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:55,600
pricing differential so
significant.

213
00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:57,920
What is what is the practical
realities of of the of

214
00:10:58,240 --> 00:10:59,480
differentiating between the two
I?

215
00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,440
Mean if you need a So sometimes
you could do it with the naked

216
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,000
eye, but most, most of the time
you need a you know, a

217
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:08,880
professional gemologist.
They have equipment.

218
00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:10,880
They use fluorescence and
photofluorescence.

219
00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,760
It has to do with the
impurities.

220
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,200
So diamonds, you know, it's not
an element, it's a mineral and

221
00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,960
and there's impurities that they
that they could trace to

222
00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:21,680
distinguish.
Sometimes you can see actual

223
00:11:21,680 --> 00:11:24,840
growth lines in a in a
manufactured diamonds.

224
00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,880
So they do have ways to do it,
but typically you're going to

225
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,320
want to use a professional, a
gem lab that's.

226
00:11:30,320 --> 00:11:33,640
Interesting because it's like,
it's like diamonds.

227
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,240
They, they, they, it was a
market where you had super

228
00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,520
margins because you could
control the quantity and they

229
00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,360
were marked as a luxury product.
Luxury products have have super

230
00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,800
margins, like it's just a one of
those wonderful phenomenons.

231
00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:49,520
But if you if you have the
ability to, to produce an

232
00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,360
equivalent thing that isn't
distinguishable from the naked

233
00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,680
eye, it's kind of like, yeah,
you can kind of tell a

234
00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:59,120
counterfeit handbag, for
example, But can you tell a, can

235
00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:01,360
you tell a lab grown diamond
from the naked eye?

236
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,760
I don't think so.
Yes, it's fascinating.

237
00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,200
It's fascinating, right, because
the the consumer preferences

238
00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,120
might not in in many cases might
actually just have an incentive

239
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:12,640
to to to purchase these lab
ground rocks as a as a

240
00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,320
substitute for a for a for a
proper rock.

241
00:12:16,680 --> 00:12:18,520
Yeah, I mean that that's
certainly part of the way you

242
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,200
have to think about this.
I mean, I would say that there

243
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:22,400
are handbags and there are
watches that are so good you

244
00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,560
probably can't distinguish.
I mean, there's when you look at

245
00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:26,800
really high end art, I mean
there's definitely, you know,

246
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:29,320
you know, counterfeit artists
that can do an amazing job that

247
00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,000
will still get soldered auction
as an original when they are.

248
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,960
But I mean, the point being is
you know that, you know, if

249
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,320
we're talking about industrial
diamonds, the consumer doesn't

250
00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:41,760
care if it's man made or
natural.

251
00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,280
They just want the lowest price,
best performing option.

252
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,920
I think when it comes to
jewellery, it's definitely a

253
00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:48,880
luxury product.
It's an emotional purchase.

254
00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:50,880
People buy because it makes them
feel good.

255
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:55,880
It's a statement gift.
You know, it's, it's more

256
00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,840
complicated because it's a
luxury product and ultimately

257
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,120
that's, you know, what's going
to probably be the saving grace

258
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:03,720
for the natural diamond
industry.

259
00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:08,040
I mean, if you create the desire
and you market it properly, you

260
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:09,800
know, you could argue that.
So, you know, some people feel

261
00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,880
there's a stigma, you know,
around a man made diamond versus

262
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:15,840
a natural.
It's just it's not a practical

263
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,360
purchase for most people.
And I think that's that's kind

264
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:19,800
of the key to understanding
this.

265
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,560
And you know, at the end of the
day, it's it's up to the natural

266
00:13:22,560 --> 00:13:25,920
diamond industry to convince
consumers to pay, you know, you

267
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,480
know, multiples more for for a
natural diamond.

268
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,760
That's a, you know, that was,
you know, naturally occur,

269
00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,640
naturally occurring.
That's, you know, a billion, 2

270
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:39,040
billion years old, you know, and
just, you know, historic, like

271
00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,120
humans, we've, we've valued rare
and and precious, you know,

272
00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,320
materials and it's not, it's not
always practical.

273
00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:47,880
I mean, I guess you could make
a, you know, a beautiful ring

274
00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:50,360
out of out of aluminium.
I mean, I would argue aluminium.

275
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:54,160
So you could argue the a
superior material to gold.

276
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,760
I mean, but we use platinum, we
use gold, we use silver.

277
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,720
People want jewellery.
That's composed of, of rare and

278
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,960
valuable materials and that's
kind of what makes it special.

279
00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,680
You can have as much as you
want, it kind of retains value

280
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,560
because of that.
But I mean, there's a lot of

281
00:14:07,560 --> 00:14:10,120
complexities at play here and
that's I think what makes it so

282
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,600
fun to to analyse actually.
So, so one of the things I found

283
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,920
so fascinating about some of the
podcast interviews you've done

284
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,920
with the, the various guests
you've had is the, the differing

285
00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:24,000
views that they had from
extremely bullish on the future

286
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,200
of, of lab grown diamonds to the
opposite of that and extremely

287
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,320
bullish on the future of the
mined diamond.

288
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,760
Given exactly what you're
talking about there, that the

289
00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,760
marketing will breakthrough and
the narrative behind selling the

290
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,120
product that they sell will
breakthrough.

291
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:45,040
Do you have a strong view either
way on the future?

292
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,560
Do you think it'll be a balance?
Do you think the mining

293
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,000
companies are in for a rough
time?

294
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,480
I think almost all of this
hinges on whether or not the

295
00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,720
diamond industry can natural
diamond industry can market its

296
00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,880
product affectionately, you
know, effectively and

297
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:04,840
aggressively enough.
And I mean, you know,

298
00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,200
everybody's probably familiar
with the beers of Diamonds

299
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,200
Forever campaign.
And it's probably the, the most

300
00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:14,680
famous, you know, consumer
product marketing campaign, you

301
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,400
know, the last, you know, you
know, 50 to 100 years.

302
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:19,760
I mean, it's, it's up there with
the greatest of all time.

303
00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,440
And you know, the beers used to
spend, you know, I, I, this is

304
00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,000
just based on my own, you know,
you know, estimates, it's kind

305
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:28,880
of hard to to come to a precise
figure here.

306
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,480
But I think, you know, they were
probably spending, you know, 400

307
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,280
to $450 million a year in
inflation adjusted dollars.

308
00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,120
If we look at, you know, 2024
dollars.

309
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,880
And now the the neo, the natural
diamond industries, you know,

310
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:44,280
probably, you know spending
under 100 million a year, right

311
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,120
so.
Do you have a gauge of what what

312
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,880
portion of their their top line
that was or?

313
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:55,680
So that no, it's I, I don't, I
don't have that, that number,

314
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,000
but it was, it's significant.
And I mean, you'll see that

315
00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,200
across the luxury space.
And if you look at, you know,

316
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,200
someone like Tiffany, it was,
you know, it was acquired by

317
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,840
LBMHA few years back.
But when they were public, you

318
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,640
know, they would publish their,
you know, annual marketing spend

319
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,200
and they were spending like, you
know, three, $400 million a

320
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:12,400
year.
I mean, just, it kind of comes

321
00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,040
with the territory with the
luxury product.

322
00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:19,360
And you know, the, the, the, the
challenge is it's like you don't

323
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,720
get, you know, immediate payback
on that, right.

324
00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,120
So if you spend, you, you start
spending, you know, three, $400

325
00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,120
million, you, you, you start a
new brand.

326
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,320
I mean, it could take, you know,
years or decades to, to get to

327
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,880
the point where you can kind of
really, you know, you know, have

328
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,760
a, have a, a, a globally well
known premium band brand that

329
00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,360
people are willing to, you know,
to, to pay a big premium for.

330
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:44,360
So the historically, the, the,
the key was to kind of be very

331
00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,760
consistent with, with the
marketing spend.

332
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,400
And then overtime you kind of
build, you know, some, some,

333
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,280
some, some real momentum.
And that's I think why diamonds

334
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,840
are still as relevant as they
are today, even though the

335
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,520
industry doesn't spend nearly
what it used to.

336
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:02,600
There was just so much momentum,
you know, built up over decades

337
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,240
and decades of spending all that
money.

338
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,599
But I think we're getting to a
point now where younger, you

339
00:17:06,599 --> 00:17:10,200
know, consumers and just younger
generations don't perceive

340
00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,160
diamonds the same way as kind of
their parents or their

341
00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,319
grandparents did, because they
really weren't exposed to that

342
00:17:15,319 --> 00:17:18,480
same campaign.
So to me, you know, I think

343
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,280
about this all the time,
obviously.

344
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,319
And I, I think marketing really
is the key here.

345
00:17:22,319 --> 00:17:25,119
It's a, you got to look at it as
a luxury product first and

346
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:26,920
foremost.
You know, if you're a copper

347
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,080
producer, it's like you need an
infrastructure project in China,

348
00:17:30,360 --> 00:17:32,760
you know, the, the Green new
deal in America infrastructure

349
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,080
build out project.
But with diamonds, you have to,

350
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,840
you know, produce their product
view to create the demand as

351
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,600
well.
That's that's kind of always

352
00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,720
what's, that's always what's
amazing, unique.

353
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:42,440
See.
See.

354
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,080
See.
Only like, Yeah, mining company

355
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:50,560
or like, yeah, commodity that is
mined where the the mining

356
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,000
companies are expected to
actually, you know, market the

357
00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,640
revenue growth, you know, like
market market convince customers

358
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,680
to actually pay, pay more for
the, for the product.

359
00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,320
I mean, you're price, you're a
price taker in every market as a

360
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,320
commodity producer.
But marketing can actually

361
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:05,680
change that.
And historically has changed

362
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,440
that for the diamond industry,
which is like such an exception.

363
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,600
Which is a positive and a
negative, right?

364
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,800
I mean, it's positive that it's
kind of in your control, but

365
00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:16,400
it's a negative and that you
have to spend a lot of money to

366
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,200
market your product.
And if you kind of lose, you

367
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,240
know, track of that, you know,
the industry can get, you know,

368
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:23,760
can certainly get in a rough
patch.

369
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,600
And I mean, I would argue that
that's part of the reason why

370
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,160
the industry is, you know, kind
of going through, you know, a

371
00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,120
rough patch at the moment.
So, so the prices are

372
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,640
bifurcated.
If we focus on the mining

373
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:38,240
companies right now with the the
sector pretty beaten up, do you

374
00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,080
have a rough indication of how
many mines out there, a

375
00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:45,280
proportion are making money at
these sort of prices?

376
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,240
Is it a handful of them?
Is it a larger portion of all

377
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,160
the mines in operation?
Yeah.

378
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:53,480
So let me just give you a kind
of the the background how we got

379
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,600
to where we are, say, today if
we're just looking at the short

380
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:56,920
term.
So we had, you know, obviously

381
00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,000
the lockdowns in 2020, nobody
can kind of go out and nobody

382
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,040
could, could, could do basically
do anything.

383
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,400
Businesses were shut.
So that was, you know, huge

384
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,000
recession for the industry.
Then, you know, stay in the US

385
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,120
you know, there were $7 trillion
of consumer stimulus that was

386
00:19:11,120 --> 00:19:12,920
distributed.
Everybody was still locked down.

387
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,920
They couldn't go out and, you
know, they couldn't go out to,

388
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,760
to dinner and they couldn't do
entertainment.

389
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,280
And people stayed home and and
they shopped and they spent

390
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:23,680
money.
And I think diamonds did

391
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:28,880
particularly well because people
were, you know, giving say, say,

392
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,640
more special gifts to fewer
people.

393
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:31,920
They're kind of locked in with
their families.

394
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:33,160
So they were buying nicer
things.

395
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,160
Diamonds do well in in a
situation like that.

396
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:40,400
So we went from, you know,
horrible year in 2020 to

397
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,960
incredibly good year in 2021.
And that kind of followed into

398
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,600
early 2022.
The supply chain literally like

399
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,000
ran out of stock, like they're,
they ran out of diamonds.

400
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,840
And then the, the, the supply
chain aggressively started to

401
00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:59,400
restock inventory the kind of
in, in 2022 into 2023.

402
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,480
And that's kind of when the
demand factors kind of flipped.

403
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:05,760
The stimulus had run out.
People kind of could kind of go

404
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,440
out and travel again and they
can kind of do outside

405
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:10,880
entertainment, they can go
dining and they bought enough

406
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,440
diamonds, you know, in 2021 and
2022.

407
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:15,960
So we kind of had, you know,
demand kind of came in

408
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,200
significantly off.
Of that, but bubble, if you

409
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,600
will, and the industry was
aggressively restocking.

410
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,040
So you know, before you know
what the the supply chain was

411
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:28,920
overstocked and that's kind of
what's been putting pressure on

412
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,640
prices.
And so there's just been

413
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,440
historic volatility, you know,
in the trade over the last, you

414
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,360
know, you know, 3-4 years.
And then as far as you know what

415
00:20:38,360 --> 00:20:40,160
money companies are doing well,
I mean, it's definitely

416
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,760
difficult across the board.
And there's been, you know,

417
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,760
producer cost inflation of as as
you've seen across the money

418
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,280
complex.
So you know, you have quarter an

419
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:51,800
all time high and diamonds are,
you know, down 25% from, you

420
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,240
know, their high end 20, you
know, say the first quarter of

421
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,640
2022.
So you kind of have, you know,

422
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,200
the the opposite thing happening
for the diamond miners and at

423
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:02,520
the end.
So it's been difficult.

424
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,760
I think they, they do, you know,
what, what they can to try to,

425
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,760
you know, temporarily reduce
costs and kind of maybe, you

426
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,360
know, cut down production a
little bit.

427
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,760
But it's, it's been, it's, it's
definitely been a rough pass for

428
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:15,840
the diamond mining companies
over the last two years.

429
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,080
And to to quickly check in on
the lab grown diamond makers.

430
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:22,680
Are they making money at these
prices?

431
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:26,960
Is is their profitability
relative to the the mine is much

432
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:32,680
different.
So with the, it's still a novel

433
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,600
industry and the price of lab
diamonds has fallen a lot more

434
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,280
precipitously than natural
diamonds just because the

435
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,680
production is just has gone
parabolic.

436
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:46,160
So I, I, I think what you have
with the lab diamond producers

437
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,160
is you're going to have a small
handful of very large companies

438
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,480
and, and say low cost, you know,
production jurisdictions like

439
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,320
India and China that are going
to continue to ramp up

440
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,560
production and, you know,
benefit from economies of scale.

441
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,520
And then you have maybe some of
the, the, the, the more of say

442
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,880
Tack or Silicon Valley like
startup companies in the Western

443
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,400
world that are going to have
more difficulty, you know, kind

444
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,520
of competing with the Indians
and the Chinese on price as you

445
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,280
know, volume spike.
Sounds pretty similar to what K

446
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,160
drill are gonna do to the
exploration drill and industry I

447
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,840
think.
Casual of man.

448
00:22:20,120 --> 00:22:23,120
They they find they find gold.
They find silver.

449
00:22:23,120 --> 00:22:24,760
They find lithium.
They find metal.

450
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:25,720
They find metal.
They find.

451
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:26,760
Yeah, I know.
They find.

452
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,680
They find diamonds.
They they could find diamonds

453
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,320
needle in a haystack, they'll
find it because everyone's going

454
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,840
to struggle to compete with them
once they take over the RC and

455
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,720
diamond drilling industry.
They I see them having parallels

456
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,120
to Nike and Michael Jordan
coming.

457
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:46,680
So Phil Knight and Nike
identified Michael Jordan as the

458
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:49,240
next biggest thing.
They got him young, they got him

459
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:50,840
early.
I would recommend mining

460
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:56,520
companies, Bayfield not get
Kaydrill early before you miss

461
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:58,320
your chance.
They're honestly like if you

462
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,760
combine Ron O'Sullivan and Drew
Harvey, they are essentially

463
00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:03,960
Michael Jordan at North
Carolina.

464
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,240
I'm going to actually say it
different.

465
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:09,440
I think if you combine Michael
Jordan and LeBron James, that

466
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,800
gives you Ron O'Sullivan.
Yeah, I reckon there's a little

467
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:13,360
bit of Dennis Rodman in that
joy, too.

468
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,200
Very much so.
Very much so.

469
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,160
Look, mine is you got to say
what I mean.

470
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,440
When you get them tendering on
an RC or diamond exploration or

471
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,160
infield drilling contract,
you'll you'll know where I'm

472
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,720
coming from when I'm talking
superstars.

473
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,520
So I think you're going to see a
situation where maybe some of

474
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:35,280
the more, you know, specialised
lab diamond producers in the

475
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,720
West start to focus on other
applications outside of

476
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,480
jewellery for their diamonds,
like high tech applications.

477
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,040
Diamond has all the, you know,
these amazing potential for for

478
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,880
application and, you know,
computing technologies, you

479
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:53,160
know, heat sinks and electric
vehicles and even, you know, you

480
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,600
know, nuclear battery storage,
that sort of thing, lasers,

481
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,640
optics, list goes on.
But I think for a lot of these

482
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,120
high tech, you know,
applications, the price of the

483
00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:02,880
raw material still a little bit
too high.

484
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,720
So they're going to have to kind
of, you know, come up with ways

485
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,640
to get the price to come down
even further.

486
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,000
So I think you're going to start
to see those more specialised

487
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,400
producers kind of maybe focus
less on the jewellery market and

488
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,800
you're going to see these large
volume, you know, mass mass

489
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,240
producers in China and India
focus more on the jewellery

490
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,240
market.
And I think that's kind of what

491
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,240
the what the markets going to
look like.

492
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,400
But there's certainly been a
shake out of lab diamond

493
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,720
producers over the last, you
know, just couple of years.

494
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,440
There's two, There's two things
that like stick with me whenever

495
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:35,560
I think about the like diamond
market history 11 is that it

496
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:39,360
wasn't until the mid 50s that,
you know, it even became

497
00:24:39,360 --> 00:24:42,200
mainstream that, you know,
getting married or proposing

498
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,760
actually involved a diamond
engagement ring.

499
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,160
Like that wasn't that wasn't,
that wasn't the norm at all

500
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,400
until marketing.
And then the other one is that

501
00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:57,160
like the fact that 60% of
Botswana's GDP is, is revenue

502
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,720
from the diamond industry.
That's kind of crazy.

503
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,920
So like, what is that?
What's that kind of political

504
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,720
dynamic like with Botswana at
the moment, given the, the

505
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,680
pressure the, you know, the, the
diamond industry's been, the

506
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,480
diamond miners in particular
have been under.

507
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:12,760
Yes, Botswana, very unique in
that way.

508
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,240
It's almost like some of the
Middle East oil, oil producers,

509
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:17,840
I mean, they just have so much
exposure to the one commodity.

510
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,240
I mean, you, you could argue
that Botswana has did a very

511
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,240
good job, you know, with
revenues from diamonds.

512
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,600
They have, you know, public
education, public healthcare.

513
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,400
It's a very small nation of, of
2 million people, But it's,

514
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,600
it's, it's, you know, very, it's
a very young country.

515
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,880
They're very proud people.
You go to the, the capital

516
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,400
Gabarone, there's, you know,
some, some pretty, you know,

517
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,840
serious infrastructure being
built.

518
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,640
You, you kind of have this, this
new emerging city there and, and

519
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,760
most of it's been built on, on
diamond.

520
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,240
So it's kind of unique in that
way.

521
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,840
Botswana is kind of known for
being, you know, one of the

522
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,800
least corrupt countries in
Africa.

523
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,560
So they've, they've done a, a
pretty good job, but they have

524
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,000
so much sensitivity to diamonds.
So when you go through a

525
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,520
downturn like we are now, it's,
it's directly kind of felt, you

526
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,640
know, within their economy.
And I think I, I, I, I think

527
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,080
they elected a new president
because they just, they want to

528
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,240
change.
You know, there's, you know,

529
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,000
some people that are arguing
that the previous president was

530
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,280
too hard line to, he was, he
was, he was basically

531
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,360
negotiating with the beers in a
way that's a little bit too hard

532
00:26:25,360 --> 00:26:26,520
line.
And they, they, they feel they

533
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:34,280
need to maybe be open up to, to,
to, I guess maybe more

534
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,720
accommodative negotiations with
the beer.

535
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:43,360
So, so, but one has a big joint
venture with the beers and, and

536
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:46,680
all of their minds, but one are,
are part of the De Beers joint

537
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,000
venture and they have a
marketing and a sales agreement

538
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,040
that they've been trying to
renew for over three years now.

539
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:55,280
So that's kind of been going on.
So I think that's kind of front

540
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,520
and centre for most people
there, and they just maybe feel

541
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,920
that the previous president
wasn't able to get that done.

542
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,600
So the new president has been
very clear that that's going to

543
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,280
be a priority and he's going to
do things a little bit

544
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,440
differently.
So you know that that's kind of

545
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,680
what's going on there now.
But I think longer term, I think

546
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,560
they're looking for ways to
diversify away from diamonds,

547
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,200
which is probably the right
thing to do.

548
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,400
Again, you've seen that in the
Middle East.

549
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,640
You look at kind of with what's
going on the UAE and they've

550
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,360
done a very good job of coming
up with ways to kind of

551
00:27:24,360 --> 00:27:27,920
diversify away from, you know,
oil and gas industry.

552
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,320
And they're kind of, you know,
looking for ways to simulate

553
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,400
international business outside
of oil and gas.

554
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,240
And Dubai has actually become
one of the one of the largest

555
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,240
diamond hubs in the world.
And that was just an industry

556
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,120
they had no exposure to
previously.

557
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:42,880
So I think, you know, Botswana
is looking to do the same.

558
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,280
But I mean, it's, it's hard,
it's difficult, it's complex and

559
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,000
it takes time.
But they have a tremendous

560
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,720
amount of exposure to two
diamonds, probably too much.

561
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:56,320
All the while Anglo American is,
you know, in the in the midst of

562
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:02,000
trying to rationalise it's it's
to be as interest with a sale

563
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,360
process pen for sometime next
year, mid mid to late next year.

564
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:12,240
What's realistically like what,
what what kind of environment

565
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,320
would it look like for for spots
one have to you know, OK, that

566
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:22,080
is what what probability can
actually get like a a decent

567
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,040
value for that business just
given how kind of under pressure

568
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,040
the entire diamond industry is.
Yeah.

569
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,120
I mean, not only is it under,
right, I mean it's not only

570
00:28:31,120 --> 00:28:33,520
under pressure right now, it's
just a very, very complex,

571
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,440
complex business because you
know of everything we were

572
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,520
talking about before, it's not
just a mining business.

573
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,280
You have to market the product
as well.

574
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:43,640
You have it's basically a
vertically integrated business.

575
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,280
And then you have all the
complexities with the with the

576
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,040
joint ventures.
You know, Botswana is the most

577
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:52,520
notable joint venture.
So it's, it's a, it's a very

578
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,000
unique business.
There's not a whole lot of

579
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:55,280
comps.
I mean, Wall Street always

580
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,680
wants, you know, a comparison,
but there's really no

581
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,520
comparison.
There's nothing else like it.

582
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,680
And then in addition to that,
again, the industry is in a

583
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,160
downturn right now.
So I think it is a difficult

584
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,320
time to be, you know, selling
off that business.

585
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,360
I think if you look at, you
know, what Anglo is doing, I

586
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,960
think they're kind of focusing
on divesting the platinum in the

587
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,000
mech full business 1st and then
they're going to get to the

588
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,360
beers and they're saying that's
probably going to, you know, be

589
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,560
be sometime next year.
I mean, what we'll see.

590
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,640
I mean, I think as an angle of
shareholder, I think there is a,

591
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,320
a price threshold that you
probably would be willing to

592
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:30,840
accept.
I mean, I don't, I don't think

593
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,440
you want to just sell it off at
all costs.

594
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,560
I think if you feel that you get
a fair price, you maybe you

595
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,880
divest it and it kind of, you
know, you know, cleans up the

596
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,560
company for, for, for the way
you want to look going forward.

597
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:45,440
But again, given all those
factors we were talking about, I

598
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,720
mean, maybe Anglo ends up just
just holding on to it.

599
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,240
I don't know.
They've, you know, 10 years ago

600
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:56,040
when they were doing that big
strategic, you know, divestiture

601
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,880
play, they, they actually ended
up holding on to some of the

602
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,120
assets.
I don't know if they make it

603
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:00,600
very clear.
They said we are not going to do

604
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,840
that.
But again, I think if they can't

605
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,640
get what they think is a fair
price, maybe that is a

606
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,480
possibility.
I guess the other possibilities

607
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,800
are just, you know, you know,
spinning it out IP owing it.

608
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,520
I I think, you know, just
someone that that covers

609
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,720
industry.
The one thing I don't want to

610
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,720
see is just a value buyer kind
of comment and scoop it up and

611
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,640
just try to, you know, bleed a
try and and and just, you know,

612
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,080
make make some money in the
short term and kind of leave it

613
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,920
to to die.
And Rod, I think, you know, it's

614
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,000
a business that that actually
needs to be coddled right now.

615
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,000
I think you need someone that
wants one best longer term, you

616
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,280
know, in the business and and
someone that believes that there

617
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,800
still is, you know, you know,
years of good growth ahead.

618
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,000
And I think I think there is, I
mean, it's been an extremely

619
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,400
resilient industry.
The beers have been extremely

620
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:47,400
resilient company and and, and I
think I think there's a reason

621
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:48,400
for that.
I think there's there's

622
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,400
something special and unique
about the business.

623
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,360
And I think if you kind of
invest in it the way that that

624
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,560
that you need to, I think
there's certainly are some some

625
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,560
some good years ahead.
So that's kind of the way I'm

626
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:01,600
looking at it right now.
But it's a, it's a tough one.

627
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,320
It's a really difficult 1 to
analyse.

628
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,200
The valuations are all over the
place.

629
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,360
It's a It's going to be
interesting to see how it plays

630
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,200
out.
Who's a buyer as well?

631
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:15,240
Like there's no obvious buyer.
Yeah, maybe a consortium.

632
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:19,320
I mean, maybe, you know, I mean,
who knows?

633
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:23,480
I mean, it's, it seems like most
of the luxury houses are

634
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,880
acknowledging that it's
difficult to run a mining

635
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,080
business, right?
Like they can handle the

636
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,840
downstream and probably do quite
well with it.

637
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,280
And then with, you know, other,
you know, mining majors,

638
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,520
obviously, like, you know, BHP
Rio Rio, you know, has a history

639
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,360
of being in the business.
They haven't really indicated

640
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,280
interest in it, but you know,
they know how to run the, you

641
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,880
know, the, the, the upstream
side, but not necessarily the

642
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:45,960
downstream side.
And again, that's kind of what's

643
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:50,040
historically made this, you know
such AI think a difficult

644
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,240
business to kind of value and
sell.

645
00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:54,920
Need a mining billionaire that
loves diamonds?

646
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:03,760
For the first part here, we sort
of say on on the sort of topic

647
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:07,280
of the the big players in the
market, I'd love to chat a bit

648
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,680
more about our Roser and just
just learn a bit about them.

649
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,960
I mean, it stood out that they
sort of diversified not not too

650
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,240
long ago and and bought a gold
miner.

651
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,960
What what did you make of the
the sort of decision to buy Poly

652
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:23,920
S and the decision to diversify
the business somewhat?

653
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,840
Yes, if you go back and look at
the history of Debeers during

654
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,600
the global financial crisis of
2008, 2009, they acquired a, a

655
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,520
natural gas and an iron ore
asset.

656
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,080
So they have done that in the
past.

657
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,600
I think they made money on one
of those assets, I don't

658
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,520
remember which one.
So I mean, they have done that

659
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,520
sort of thing in the past.
But when you look at the amount

660
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:44,360
of money they spend on that
asset, it's still just a

661
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,520
fraction of of, you know, what
the what, what they spend to run

662
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,480
the diamond mining business.
It's, it's definitely still a, a

663
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,800
diamond mining business for, you
know, first and foremost, I

664
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:56,200
think when you look at the way
that the Russians look at it,

665
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,240
it's, it's probably, you know,
literally a low single digit

666
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,000
percentage.
You know, if we're looking at

667
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,600
that, the revenue it generates
compared to say oil and gas.

668
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,200
So it's still kind of small
niche business for them if we're

669
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,040
just looking from a national
standpoint.

670
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,040
So something I think they'll
continue to carry on.

671
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,440
I mean, it's, it's, it's
interesting because I mean, it

672
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,320
was a, it is, it's a public
company.

673
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:24,120
It's only listed in Moscow, but
they really, you know, but I

674
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,760
would say, you know, between,
you know, 2010 and and, you

675
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:32,880
know, 2022, they actually became
a, a very transparent company.

676
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,520
They would do, you know, analyst
days, capital market days.

677
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,240
They would have, you know,
quarterly reporting that was

678
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,920
very transparent.
They would, you know, you know,

679
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,640
they would publish, you know,
the results of their, their

680
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,080
monthly sales.
I mean, it was, it was really

681
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,440
interesting because it went
from, you know, a company that

682
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,800
was very opaque to arguably the
most transparent company in the

683
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:55,480
industry.
And now it's completely, you

684
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,840
know, OPEC again, it's like the,
the, the, the, the bail's been

685
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,280
shuttered.
So I mean, we'll see.

686
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:03,840
I'm not.
And, you know, just, you know,

687
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,240
as an analyst for the, for the
trade.

688
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,400
I mean, I think the industry's
better when kind of everybody's

689
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,719
kind of kind of, you know,
working together and talking

690
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:11,679
and, and, and cordial with one
another.

691
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,040
But it's, it's definitely
different now, you know, post

692
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:20,719
2022 and all the sanctions and
it's, they don't believe, you

693
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:22,600
know, publicise anything
anymore.

694
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:27,080
So I mean, we'll see, you know,
see how that how that plays out.

695
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:31,320
But you know, there's just been
volatility across the industry

696
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:34,239
and, and so many different areas
just the last four or five

697
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:35,719
years.
I mean, it's just, it's been,

698
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:43,280
it's been nonstop.
Yeah, like if you were just kind

699
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:47,360
of guess yourself, Paul, I mean,
you speak to people in the

700
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:52,320
industry all the time yourself,
an analyst that follows it like

701
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,400
super damn closely.
Do you think, do you think mine

702
00:34:56,400 --> 00:35:00,240
diamond prices like 10 years
from now is higher or lower than

703
00:35:00,240 --> 00:35:03,720
it is today?
I think it's a direct function

704
00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:05,120
of how much they spend on
marketing.

705
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,920
And it seems like the industry
is starting to really

706
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:09,880
acknowledge this and take this
seriously.

707
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:15,480
The beers just cut a cooperative
agreement with the three largest

708
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,040
strollers in the three largest
markets in the US, India, China

709
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,040
to basically come in and
actually work with their

710
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,400
frontline salespeople and kind
of, you know, train them how to

711
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:27,880
properly sell a natural diamond
and how to explain to the

712
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,280
consumer why they might want a
natural diamond over a lab

713
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:34,080
diamond.
The you have the natural diamond

714
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,600
council, which is kind of the
the new version of a diamond is

715
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,720
forever campaign.
It's it's it was basically set

716
00:35:39,720 --> 00:35:43,280
up so all of the major money
comes in kind of cooperate and

717
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,760
kind of work together and try to
re stimulate generic marketing.

718
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:48,920
They're they're doing a good
job.

719
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:51,320
I think they need significantly
more capital.

720
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:54,400
So the industry acknowledges how
important marketing is.

721
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,560
Everybody that's been in the
trade, you know, knows the

722
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,280
history of how important
marketing is.

723
00:35:58,720 --> 00:36:01,720
And that's just going to end up,
you know, being the key, I think

724
00:36:01,720 --> 00:36:06,440
going going forward as well.
So again, it's, it's, it's up to

725
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,920
the natural diamond industry to
convince consumers to pay, you

726
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,920
know, 56710 times more for, you
know, for a natural diamond.

727
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,120
And if they're successful doing
that, as they have been in the

728
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,480
past, I, I think, you know, the
natural diamond industry is

729
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,000
going to be fine.
That that's going to be the key.

730
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:25,720
I mean, the industry is so
unique and that I mean, you go

731
00:36:25,720 --> 00:36:31,000
back to the pre 1990s, Japan
didn't buy any diamond or I'm

732
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:34,120
sorry, China didn't buy any
diamonds and now they're the

733
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,360
second largest consumer of
diamonds in the world.

734
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,400
If you go back to it was
probably the, you know, the 70s

735
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,040
and the 80's, the Japanese
didn't buy any diamonds and you

736
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,200
know, the beers went in there
and they marketed aggressively.

737
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:47,280
And, you know, at the time, you
know, Japan grew to the second

738
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,160
largest consumer of diamond.
So again, it's just, it's a,

739
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,160
it's a, it's a very unique
industry in that way.

740
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,200
If you kind of spend the money
and direct the resources

741
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,280
appropriately, you could, you
could create, you know, brand

742
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,760
new incremental demand.
And, and again, that's kind of

743
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,120
what's made this industry
historically.

744
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:05,600
So, so interesting.
The fast growing net market now

745
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:10,400
is the Indian consumer market
given the, the, the slowdown in

746
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:14,000
China right now, just within the
last probably year or so,

747
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:17,520
India's probably overtaken
China's the second largest

748
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,000
consumer of diamonds in the
world.

749
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:24,240
So the industry seems to be kind
of targeting a lot of marketing

750
00:37:24,240 --> 00:37:27,360
to the Indian consumer market.
And and that's you're already

751
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,200
starting to see that reflected,
but it's so it's very

752
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:34,160
interesting industry in that the
US is probably 55% of global

753
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,480
diamond demand is in the US
alone.

754
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:41,680
So it's it's very concentrated
between I'd say the top, the top

755
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,440
three markets when we're looking
at demand.

756
00:37:43,720 --> 00:37:46,320
And that's just because the
industry I think targets those.

757
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,440
Those three markets have spends,
you know, all their Money

758
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,880
Marketing and in those
particular markets.

759
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:57,120
Just on the on the supply side,
a number of the big operations

760
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,800
have have shut down over the
past five or so years.

761
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,320
And my understanding is you've
maybe got 11 big operation

762
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,080
coming on in, in the next few
years.

763
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,800
Is that sort of broadly right?
Do you do you see the actual

764
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,800
mine supply trailing off a bit?
Right.

765
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,320
So there's been a, just a trend
over the last, you know,

766
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:21,440
probably 20 years of just major,
you know, mines reaching

767
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:22,880
depletion.
I mean, obviously the Argyll

768
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:27,880
mine, you know, in, in
Australia, you know, reached

769
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,680
depletion at the end of 2020.
I mean, there was one point in

770
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,720
time from a volume standpoint
that Argyle produced 40% of, of

771
00:38:34,720 --> 00:38:36,640
all diamonds globally.
That was in the 80s.

772
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,640
So just kind of give you some,
some context there.

773
00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:42,080
But I mean, there's, there's a
couple reasons for this.

774
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,920
I mean, diamonds that they, they
are rare, you know, contrary to,

775
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,800
to what you know, you may read
some media articles, at least

776
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,280
large economic diamond deposits
are, are extremely rare.

777
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,640
So that's part of it.
And then I mean, diamond prices

778
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,120
just have been, you know,
relatively flat over the last,

779
00:38:57,120 --> 00:38:58,680
you know, 10 years.
There's been, you know,

780
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,480
obviously significant volatility
the last, the last, you know,

781
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:05,720
2-3 years.
But there just hasn't been a, a,

782
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:10,280
a significant amount of money
spent on, you know, new

783
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,720
exploration and development,
such as a combination of less

784
00:39:13,720 --> 00:39:17,480
money being spent and just a lot
less, you know, assets that the,

785
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:19,400
the big assets have been
discovered, they've been

786
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,200
exploited and produced.
And some of those are at the end

787
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,280
of their mind life.
So that's kind of been the, the

788
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,360
supply trend.
I mean, the supply trend in this

789
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,760
industry is, is, is quite good.
It's quite bullish.

790
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:32,680
I think if you're just to kind
of look at, look at some of the

791
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,680
numbers.
So that kind of takes us back to

792
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,280
demand.
And it's like, if the industry

793
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,440
can success, you know, be
successful in driving demand, I

794
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,960
think the supply fundamentals
are going to be supportive of,

795
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,360
of higher prices.
So to me right now it's it's all

796
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,200
about demand that the supplies
not an issue, the supplies, you

797
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,840
know, favourable I would argue.
Beautiful.

798
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,880
I've just got one more for you.
Paul.

799
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:57,760
Are there are there any sort of
views that you hold relative to

800
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:01,360
the other people that watch the
industry as close as you do that

801
00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:03,360
stand out as being pretty
contrarian?

802
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,080
I mean, so the diamond industry
is unique in that, especially

803
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,080
when we're talking at the
midstream, the manufacturers,

804
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,360
the cutters and polishers,
they're very pessimistic by

805
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:13,600
nature.
A lot of them are Indian.

806
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,600
I don't know if that's kind of
just just in the culture.

807
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,440
So I, I guess in that
standpoint, the, the contrarian

808
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,520
view would be that the world's
not going to end in this

809
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:25,040
industry is going to survive.
And it's, it's been through very

810
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,440
challenging lows in the past and
it's kind of pulled through.

811
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,280
I would attribute that to the
people.

812
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,840
I, I think the, the one reason
I'm still, you know, covering

813
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:34,200
this industry exclusively is
because I, I, I love the people.

814
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:35,880
There's great people.
It's infectious.

815
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,040
It's a very global industry
across, you know, so many

816
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,640
different cultures, religions,
parts of the world, different

817
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:45,200
economic backdrops.
It's a very interesting, diverse

818
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,800
industry from that standpoint,
and it's been very resilient.

819
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:49,240
I think that's part of the
reason.

820
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,880
So I mean, I do think the
industry is going to survive.

821
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:56,600
I'm just encouraged of what I've
seen in the last little while,

822
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:58,840
just the last, you know, a few
months of the industry starting

823
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:01,560
to take steps to kind of
acknowledge that it needs to

824
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,320
focus on marketing and come
together and create demand for

825
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:05,920
each products.
So I think that's good.

826
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,520
Just within the last, you know,
year, year and a half, China's

827
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,840
fallen off a Cliff from a demand
standpoint.

828
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:16,160
I mean the I'm in demand in
China is down, you know, it's

829
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:21,480
probably down 4050 sixty, maybe
even 70% just I would say within

830
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,760
the last, you know, probably 12
to 18 months.

831
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,360
So and you know, trying to
discuss.

832
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:28,920
All sort of focused on gold.
Sorry to interrupt you.

833
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,840
There is.
Yes, I think that that that's

834
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,400
part of it.
I think it's a sentiment issue.

835
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:39,760
I think people were locked down
for I I think a lot longer than

836
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,400
they probably expected or were
comfortable.

837
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,640
And I think people are just feel
they need to save money and they

838
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:48,480
they need to, to store savings
and they're, you know,

839
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:52,720
uncomfortable maybe buying the
level of, you can say, you know,

840
00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:54,680
discretionary purchases that
they have in the past.

841
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:56,360
So I think it's more of a
sentiment issue.

842
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,680
Then you have the macroeconomic
backdrop.

843
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,280
And I think people are thinking,
if I'm going to buy jewellery,

844
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:05,160
you know, gold's, you know, show
that it's that, that it's, you

845
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:06,200
know, going to maintain its
value.

846
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,880
And gold's at all time highs
right now, diamonds are off the

847
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,600
highs.
So excuse me, I think I think

848
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:15,200
that's part of it, but I think
it's more of a sediment issue.

849
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,520
And I, I think it's more of kind
of a macro issue in China right

850
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,000
now.
So I think there will be

851
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,200
recovery there.
And even if there's a little

852
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,240
recovery there, I think it'll be
felt by the industry because

853
00:42:24,240 --> 00:42:27,120
it's down so much.
So I mean, you have any industry

854
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,720
where the, the second largest
consumer just falls off a Cliff,

855
00:42:29,720 --> 00:42:33,240
I mean, you're going to feel it.
So I so, I mean, I think that's

856
00:42:33,240 --> 00:42:36,200
a kind of a, you know, front and
centre, you know, why the

857
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:38,800
industry is, is in a situation
it is right now.

858
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:40,360
I think China's a huge part of
that.

859
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,440
And if we see any recovery at
all in China, and it's not just

860
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,120
diamonds, it's like luxury.
I mean, if you look at Louis

861
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:49,240
Vuitton, you know, his comments
on, on, on, on the luxury

862
00:42:49,240 --> 00:42:52,520
industry and just the, the, the
watch demand secondhand watch, I

863
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,560
mean, out of China's down, you
know, pretty much the same

864
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,280
levels diamond.
So it's, it's basically across

865
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,720
the, the luxury discretionary,
you know, you know, consumer

866
00:43:00,720 --> 00:43:02,640
segments that we're saying that
it's not just diamonds.

867
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,240
And I do think there will be
recovery in China.

868
00:43:06,240 --> 00:43:08,480
And I think when we see that, I
think you're going to it's going

869
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,760
to be quite noticeable when
you're going to feel it with

870
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:14,240
with, you know, from a diamond
demand standpoint.

871
00:43:14,240 --> 00:43:18,840
So I guess that's kind of the
other thing that, you know,

872
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:21,480
maybe some people have given up
on China, but I don't think the

873
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,240
industry should give up on China
and I think there will be a

874
00:43:24,240 --> 00:43:27,640
recovery in China.
One last one for me, Paul, are

875
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:32,600
you married?
I'm not when you when if you do

876
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:36,920
get married and when you
propose, will it be a a a

877
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:38,760
natural diamond or lab grown
diamond?

878
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:42,680
I mean, I think so, I think that
the, the, the honest way to

879
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,400
answer this is you should
probably know who you're

880
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:49,240
marrying.
Well, you want well handed, but

881
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,000
you know, I think natural
diamonds definitely resonate

882
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,320
probably as a little bit more
special for me.

883
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:58,080
So so if it fills up to me, I
think natural is natural is the

884
00:43:58,080 --> 00:43:58,880
way to go.
Yeah.

885
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,120
There you go.
Beautiful.

886
00:44:00,240 --> 00:44:01,320
Thanks a lot for your time,
Paul.

887
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,520
This has been, yeah, hugely
educated.

888
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,680
So thanks for coming on and and
teaching us a bit about the

889
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,600
diamond industry.
My pleasure, thanks for having

890
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:10,440
me.
Thank you back.

891
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,800
There we go.
Did you did you get an answer to

892
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:18,880
your lab or natural diamond ring
that you're comfortable with?

893
00:44:19,240 --> 00:44:22,200
Yeah, I think everyone has has
personal preferences, right?

894
00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:25,240
And it's like the the way that
people are going to express

895
00:44:25,240 --> 00:44:27,520
those personal preferences, like
what, what's the market for

896
00:44:27,600 --> 00:44:30,240
each, the market size for each
and how's that market size for

897
00:44:30,240 --> 00:44:33,720
each going to change over time?
Like I'm super interested in

898
00:44:33,720 --> 00:44:35,680
that.
Like which other commodity or

899
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:38,560
metal that you always can't
produce from, from mining?

900
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,360
Do you have such a, a clear
transfer of consumer preferences

901
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:43,920
for different prices?
It's like diamonds is the the

902
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:47,720
most pure lack of a pun kind of
market where you you get that.

903
00:44:47,720 --> 00:44:50,560
But we know a lot more about the
market now, which is super

904
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:51,920
helpful.
And I think it'll be one that we

905
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,720
pay closer attention to and
closer attention to the the

906
00:44:54,720 --> 00:44:56,560
stocks that have diamond
exposure to now.

907
00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,000
Is there is there any like and
obviously because there are it's

908
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:04,400
an allotrope of carbon, but is
it similar to graphite, the

909
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,480
diamond industry at all from
mining and the lab grown at all

910
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:09,680
without me listening to the
episode?

911
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,320
Yet not, not Nah.
There's a lot, a lot of yeah, a

912
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:15,720
lot of differences.
Carbons are like, like

913
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,480
graphite's abundant, diamonds
are diamonds are rare.

914
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:23,480
Graphite requires a very long
process to make and diamonds you

915
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,600
know it's the the miners often
are the same person as the

916
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,320
retailer like to be to be as in
some instances too, where you

917
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:30,320
wouldn't get that in the
graphite.

918
00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:33,720
Industry price makers.
Yeah, very good.

919
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,400
General mining services Price
maker or price taker.

920
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,640
They probably will be price
makers because they're that

921
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:43,880
fucking good in the future.
So they all these companies will

922
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,480
be price makers.
We only take price makers as

923
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,760
partners.
Grounded construction group

924
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,400
cross boundary energy, Sambic
Ground sport.

925
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:55,840
Oh Jesus Christ, talking about
it by emit CRE insurance K drill

926
00:45:56,160 --> 00:46:00,520
dice sat and go bloody get down
on one knee to the missus.

927
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:02,840
If you're feeling the need, get
a diamond ring.

928
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:04,560
Uduru money mine.
Udi.

929
00:46:05,720 --> 00:46:08,320
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

930
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:10,400
general nature only and does not
take into account the

931
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:14,000
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

932
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,040
person.
Before making any investment

933
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:19,120
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

934
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,240
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

935
00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:24,440
financial situation and needs.