Discussing deep value commodities with Trader Ferg

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Right over buddy waters bargains
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We're giving away EJC 190 bucks
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or Oz IMM member code MOM.
And if I'm not a member?

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Well mate, it's not a it's not
as good, but it's still bloody

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good.
It's 160 bucks off how good the

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code MOMNM as in non member?
And what's happening at GRX?

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Mate, I tell you what, 150
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How good is get?
Along get just save yourself

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money ticket links are in the
show notes.

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And Speaking of other things
that are just awesome, Trader

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Ferg.
Absolutely.

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What is that?
Mate check out his sub stack if

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you're not there already.
He is the counter cyclical king

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you'd say.
Absolutely.

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Mate, so if we've had him on
before, he's a well known figure

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in the investment community.
And mate, we talked.

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What have we opted?
Would you guys get him to write?

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Them down because there was so
much, so much, so much, buddy.

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We talked inflation, inflation,
China, gold, PGM's loves, loves

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his rhodium loves.
Rhodium.

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I don't even know what that is,
but I'm excited to learn about

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it.
If you if you talk to Ferg you

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should love it mate.
Bloody cobalt, uranium, offshore

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oil mate.
We covered a he.

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Covered a lot of ground.
And it's I love hearing his his

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views, the way he thinks and the
way he punts his money.

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Love it.
So right, let's get into it.

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Let's RIP in.
Right on Muddy Mudders.

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We've got on the man I want to
be one day.

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Trader Ferg mate, I'm still in
envy of your life, big fella.

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Thanks.
Yeah, no, great to be back on

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Boys, Boys.
I love the channel, honestly.

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You, you, you tackle the
questions.

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I'm honestly wondering.
Some days I like just yeah, see,

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see some news and then you the
video pops up a a day later.

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I'm like, that's exactly what I
was wondering.

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Very good mate.
Well, we the the theme of this

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is always what is the most hated
and what's a good entry point

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that oh, Trader Ferg's looking
at.

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So, boys, take it away.
Yeah, I think we can give you a

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bit of mutual admiration here
because we we love your sort of

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style.
You're writing as well, Ferg,

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and your ultra contrarian kind
of nature.

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And I thought it'd be cool to,
to start this convo reflecting a

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bit because you wrote this
wicked piece called Moats and

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Cannibals.
I'd, I'd encourage anyone who

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hasn't read that one to, to go
and have a, have a look just to

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get a feel for your writing.
So that was about a year ago or

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so.
And there's a lot of topics that

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you touched on there from
inflation to human behavior and

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how you view markets that I
think are quite interesting and

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worth kind of reflecting on a
year or so later.

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And I want to sort of frame it
with one of these quotes that I

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just pulled out that you wrote.
Embracing the cyclical nature of

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markets is the only way I know
of how to make outsized returns.

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And I want to kind of hear your
thoughts bearing that in mind on

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where we are in the cycle of
the, the commodities or the

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various markets you're you're
most pumped by mate?

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Yes, certainly.
Yes, I, I like that piece

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because that was kind of my
overall framework for how I'm

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trying to position for the next
decade at least.

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And like, it's kind of simple
when you really break it down

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that all the markets are a sort
of mess human behaviour and we

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just always spending between
like fear and greed in certain

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sectors and greed.
We just are justifying price

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action and over projecting.
And I think you got that with

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AI.
And then there's the other side,

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which is the, the fear.
And it's just nothing's pissed,

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like too pessimistic.
And this is where I like to hang

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out, which is like, just how bad
can it get that you're like, you

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just you don't have to be that
right to see a great return.

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And like some of the classic
examples are just stuff going

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bankrupt.
I love for like the like you can

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look out for the phrases like
terminal decline, stranded

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assets, like just multiple
bankruptcies.

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I own a few companies that have
gone bankrupt twice.

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And yeah, once you kind of
understand cyclicality, you can

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see like, sure, not everything's
cyclical.

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Like you'll have a hard time if
you're waiting for like fax

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machines to come back or
something.

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But if you pegging yourself to
a, a trend that you think is

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going to hold up for long term,
like energy demand, then it's

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all just a, it's all just an
opportunity to to have patience

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and set yourself up for great
returns.

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If you can stomach some
volatility and keep your eyes on

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like the long term fundamental
outlook.

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And that, that piece was really
just observing that I think

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we're coming out of a, a period
of sort of loose money, low

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inflation and everything that's
worked in that period is going

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to stop working.
And what I see coming, which

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will be tighter money, it'll be
higher structural inflation and

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there'll be a lot of a lot of
resource constraints just

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because we've underspent.
We've put just been pouring

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money into the likes of take and
especially the Mag 7.

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And if I I point I was trying to
make in that piece was if you

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the markets work on narratives
like a big narrative, then was

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like the power of say, like
network effects where everyone

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just there's no evaluation too
much to justify the power of a

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network effect.
All that piece was really

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getting at the fact that I think
there's going to be a lot of

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sectors where you have, you've
had so much capital put in, so

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much written down on the
assumption it was not going to

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be needed.
Like the offshore rigs, whether

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it's even like Fermal coal with
both probably the prime examples

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that they're just going to have
a huge Moat moving forward and

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they're going to have outsized
returns that super hard to

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compete with, like a super dual
ship to replace it.

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You need to start, you need day
rates higher and then you need

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the ship, yeah, capacity.
And then you need to put up 40%

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and then you need to wait five
years for it to come on.

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And then you've got to compete
with with companies that are

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holding all these assets that
with no doubt against them.

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So and if during this period
inflation's a lot higher, it

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just just makes it even harder
to compete with that.

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And so that's the idea of the
Moat, the ideas of the cannibal

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side of things is these
companies are well aware that

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they have the smoke and they can
start buying back their own

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stock.
And so you can have these

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companies that could really
corner their float during this

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period with a Moat and they
could have substantial

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outperformance.
And just on that back, they

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don't even need to be have their
mould balls re rated by the

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market.
But obviously once the

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performance comes to market,
we'll probably start taking

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notice.
And that's why I kind of kind of

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see that being a future kind of
narrative that the market really

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catches on to.
But obviously I'm talking like

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five years from now, which not
many people want to position.

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And if I'm honest, like been in
the like the, the whole offshore

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space has been absolutely brutal
lately.

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So don't have much to show the
last six months for this thesis.

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It's just been waking up every
day and seeing them get hammered

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again.
And the demand hasn't gone away.

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It's just been pushed forward a
year or two.

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The the point on inflation, I
think is the one I want to draw

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on because I think that is the
one that dictates to a large

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extent or all the other ones.
And I'm keen to sort of get an

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update on, on your thoughts.
Ferg, you wrote back then that

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we're in for a highly
inflationary decade.

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And you know, there's the sort
of connotations on investing in

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hard assets, real assets and all
these sorts of things.

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How is your thinking on that big
kind of picture cycle of

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inflation changed over the last
year?

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Hasn't really like I, I still
think the end games there, like

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when you when you break down the
situation the US is in, it's

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it's nice to see what they're
doing with those stuff, but the

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it's too little too late.
When you look at this sort of

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the numbers like they, they
already like 87% of it's non

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discretionary or they're trying
to cut.

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So they can't, they can't touch
entitlements, they can't touch

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really touch defence Medicare,
like all of that's already set.

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And So what they're what they're
trying to cut is is not enough

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to move the needle when they're
sort of 120% debt to GDP in the

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US.
And so really you got three ways

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that you could balance things.
Again, you got austerity, which

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is what they're essentially
trying to do.

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You've got default, which why
default when you print your

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currency or you've got sort of
inflate the debt to get it back

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under control.
And that's that's sort of

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inflating the debt to get it
back under control is pretty

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much, I think almost a
certainty.

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And that results as well from
you just look where they're kind

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of stuck like they, if they push
austerity too hard, as we've

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already seen, the stock market
comes down, Stock market's a big

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part of receipts and that's
government income.

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And so once you crash that, then
they have to print more to make

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the balance.
And so it's just you end up in

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the the same place either way
that, that they, they

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essentially have to monetise the
debt.

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And so I just, I see that
occurring over longer the longer

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run and just positioned for that
with wanting to be in, in real

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scarce assets to.
And I've also kind of like any

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the likes of what Europe are
doing with the whole net zero

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policy and targeting when the
solar and just debasing energy.

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I think that's going to play a
big role in it because energy's

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obviously very tightly
correlated to inflation as well.

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Yeah.
So I see that, granted it's no

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one's really worried about it at
the moment seems, but I see that

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coming back in a big way.
Yeah, well, Oh no, No one's

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really worried about bloody
hitting open pit mining targets

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anymore, considering bloody MMS
in the in the industry these

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days.
Buddy, you're you're just pretty

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much guaranteed to get to the
ore early.

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What a breath of.
Fresh air not a is it, isn't it

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and JC and JD, it's not
coincidence like 'cause you the

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the fact that they've got this
whole tech services arm attached

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to it.
Like I'm talking the the

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geology, the mining engineering,
the like and when like resource

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work great control for the
geology, not just looking at

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rocks mate, finding and telling
you what the rocks are the all

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the pit designs, the the pit
techies.

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And that just compliments the
whole mining services side to

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blow the rock up and haul it to
the crusher and make shit loads

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of cash.
So.

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Full service Maddie.
Mate, they've gone, mate.

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Old refractory Rob's running it,
mate.

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He's gone from refractory Rob to
extractory Rob because he is

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extracting bloody open pit dirt
like an absolute champion

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Champion these days.
So MMS anyway.

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De risk your operation.
Get MMS on site.

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I will, JD.
Go the tech services team.

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We can.
We can definitely talk about

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Europe a bit later on there.
There's one other lens just to

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play devil's advocate here for
that I'm curious to get your

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thoughts on.
And I'm largely in agreeance

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with how how you think about
this.

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00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,160
But you hear people, I think
predominantly sort of from

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Silicon Valley that'll push the,
the growth narrative.

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And I think that is the
alternative to the the three

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kind of that you mentioned of
how this kind of plays out.

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You know, the the counter being
they can grow their way out and

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they do that through doge and
deregulation broadly to inspire

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growth in the USDA.
Do you ascribe high odds to that

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happening and that being a means
of actually minimizing what that

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debt to GDP ratio is?
Yes, it's a have high enough

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productivity that you can grow
your way out.

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Yeah, I've seen those arguments
put forward especially on the

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back of that AI just producing
like a boom and productivity.

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00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:27,200
I think the the cleanest counter
argument that is the fact that

225
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:33,240
large parts of the economy are
off and not especially in US

226
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:34,240
you're not allowed to compete
with.

227
00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,200
And this is the idea that just
being so heavily regulated

228
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:45,840
cartel like sort of duopolies,
olipolies, regulatory capture

229
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:52,440
that it's, I don't think that
productivity can even show up.

230
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,400
Like it's there's this great
chart that people can look up

231
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,320
from Mark Andreessen.
This is showing that they have a

232
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,880
2 tiered economy.
And you've got areas that

233
00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,760
supposedly AI should dominate,
like education.

234
00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,320
And the education inflation is
just out of control.

235
00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:09,960
Like every year it's higher,
higher.

236
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:16,120
Same with with medical like
should really be sort of a

237
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:21,440
breakthrough in productivity,
but it's also captured that they

238
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:25,960
just keep increasing costs and
everything that technology is

239
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,720
going to attack, it's already
kind of attacked.

240
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:34,720
It's all the electronics, all
the all the areas that we've

241
00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,480
seen just China essentially
dominate.

242
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,920
And so, and another great book
on this is the myth of

243
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,600
Capitalism, which is arguing the
same thing essentially, that

244
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:50,040
there's just been such such
almost crony capitalism across

245
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:55,360
the whole the United States and
the the vast majority of

246
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,160
manufacturing has been
outsourced that that's not going

247
00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:00,400
to that's not going to change
anytime soon.

248
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,160
And if you did change that, it'd
be so painful way back to the

249
00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:08,600
point that you'd cause a hell of
a recession and you need to

250
00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:12,880
print the difference to to fund
the dead again and see you back,

251
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:17,600
you straight back into the whole
on sort of inflation spiral.

252
00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:23,240
Fergie hunt for these, these
charts that just look, look like

253
00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:26,760
they're on a, on a downward
trajectory, like like absolutely

254
00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,560
beaten up and they've just been
bottom feeding for ages.

255
00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:31,760
You and you, you'd look
everywhere for them.

256
00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,680
If they're a cyclical industry,
you put capital there and and

257
00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,640
then you're patient.
Where are those charts at the

258
00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:42,040
moment?
Yes, I, I refer to it as now as

259
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:46,000
like when the patient's dead,
like it's, you know, you know,

260
00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:49,600
you're watching the, the medical
movie and they're all the

261
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,120
families sitting around and you
see the heartbeat beat slowing

262
00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:56,360
and it, and then it stops and
you hear the, the buzz and it

263
00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,640
just goes flat.
I'm, I'm looking for those

264
00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,480
charts.
And I guess probably taking the

265
00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,080
analogy too far and like what,
what could like be the catalyst

266
00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:07,120
to turn around?
Like when are the, the, the

267
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,200
resuscitation coming around that
could bring it back?

268
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,560
And I think last time when I was
on with your boys, I was just

269
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,640
going through the whole PG Ms.
trade.

270
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,600
And that's been sort of a one
that I, I see that a lot at the

271
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,520
moment, particularly like we're
just talking about rhodium,

272
00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:33,080
which is, that's probably when
I'm thinking of like the, the

273
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,480
absolute flat line and then the
breakout.

274
00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:38,920
That's the most clinical one
I've ever seen at the moment.

275
00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,640
It's a beautiful.
Chart that one like the the the

276
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,920
run up in that in the was it
like, you know, between kind of

277
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,840
2010 and 2015 is is outrageous
and then falls off a Cliff and

278
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,840
now you've got a bit of a
breakout again.

279
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,600
What's going on there?
I mean, it's a pretty, pretty

280
00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,720
thinly traded market probably.
Yeah.

281
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,600
So it's opaque is all.
Helps.

282
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:01,120
I'm not.
I'm gonna start by saying I've

283
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,400
got no idea.
I've got no insight at all as

284
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,319
what, why, who's jumping in
there in volume.

285
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,760
I've got yeah, zero idea.
I could just throw out some

286
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:16,440
conspiracy theories and some
Chinese EV manufacturer hoarding

287
00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:18,560
because they see it as a
byproduct and.

288
00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:20,560
Maybe someone's listening to you
talk about it and thinking I

289
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,560
could squeeze this market.
How?

290
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,560
How much have you got locked
away, Ferg?

291
00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,360
Yeah, a little bit.
Yeah, the the you know, that's

292
00:17:29,360 --> 00:17:31,600
also the problem what I'm
talking about as well with like

293
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,920
I don't want to be seen as like,
yeah, because I'm the only

294
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,440
person that's actually I've come
across that's even talked about

295
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,000
rhodium.
So it's like, are you are you

296
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:40,960
trying to move?
But it's been good because I

297
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,840
only mentioned that lately.
So it's absolutely zero to do

298
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:48,720
with me.
And it does have some striking

299
00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,480
similarities to like uranium and
that believe like 80% of its

300
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:55,840
long term contracted.
And so whenever those contracts

301
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,720
obviously fall short is like 20%
that trades on spot.

302
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,800
And so they've got to go in and
purchase it on spot.

303
00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,880
And then Rhodium, it's a by
product.

304
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,040
So you can't really move supply
based on supply and demand.

305
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,600
It's largely, largely just comes
out of the Bush field in South

306
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:18,520
Africa and you've got just a
reef around the bottom of South

307
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:23,240
Africa where the platinum
deposits are quite high rhodium.

308
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:28,120
So rhodium is produced in a few
other places like Russia with

309
00:18:28,120 --> 00:18:33,680
non nickel, Zambia, but in US,
but it's all very, very low

310
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,120
splits.
So you're talking think Russia's

311
00:18:36,120 --> 00:18:41,400
like 2% split with the Palladium
dominant deposit.

312
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,160
Zambia, it's about the same.
US it's even lower like 1%.

313
00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:48,320
And then there's one little spot
in South Africa, you're up

314
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:54,680
around 8-9 percent and that's,
so that's where sort of 85% of

315
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,360
global rhodium production is.
And again, this is all based on

316
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:03,640
them essentially extracting PGM.
So rhodium is just one part of

317
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:06,240
that equation.
And so it's hard to move the

318
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:10,440
supply on that.
And so when you're a pure

319
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:15,240
byproduct, it really trades on
like illiquidity doesn't really

320
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,800
trade on fundamentals, I guess
like when you need it, you just

321
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,480
got to pay up for it.
And This is why I loved it is

322
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:24,880
you get to sit there in a
physical metal that's got, it's

323
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,120
like an out of the money call
option type volatility.

324
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:32,040
And so by the time this airs,
it's probably collapsed back

325
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,480
down to where it was.
But I just know that, yeah, when

326
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,120
someone needs it, they're going
to have to pay up.

327
00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:40,640
And it's done this five times.
Like if you're talking

328
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,240
cyclicality, this is probably
the most cyclical little

329
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:48,200
commodity I've come across that
five times already has been a

330
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:52,600
multi bagger.
And then obviously supplier gets

331
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,120
gets incentivized generally
because it goes hand in hand

332
00:19:58,120 --> 00:20:01,200
with PG Ms., which is another
point why this is quite

333
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,720
interesting is both platinum and
Palladium are both down.

334
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,640
So it doesn't actually make
sense why it's rocketing.

335
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:15,720
It's not logical either.
But yeah, I if you zoom out, the

336
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,280
biggest story kind of like I
went through when I was last on,

337
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:23,280
is that the entire space is
rolling over and no one's

338
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,000
worried about it because they
think EVs are going to rocket

339
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,800
and there's no need for
catalytic converters.

340
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,240
Whereas I hold a different,
different opinion that the likes

341
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,440
of BYD with its massive ramp and
plug in hybrids and their

342
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,240
additional need for catalytic
converters is it can actually

343
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,360
drive demand up.
And at the same time all the

344
00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:48,200
plans to expand production
either being cancelled or being

345
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:52,000
pushed out like nor Nickel which
was supposed to add 8% to global

346
00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:58,000
PGM production that was supposed
to come online by 2027 that was

347
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:01,360
supposed to be commissioned in
2023.

348
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,840
So that due to sanctions they
couldn't get equipment.

349
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:09,080
So they'll push the project out
and that's yet to start.

350
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,480
They haven't given a new
timeline, but granted that

351
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,520
timeline was four years.
Even if they start start now,

352
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,120
still four years down.
And then again, this is

353
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,680
Palladium rich.
So two, 2/3 of their production

354
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:28,040
is Palladium, like 2% is rhodium
and the rest is platinum.

355
00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:31,960
And interestingly, their
economics are driven by nickel

356
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,960
because they're prominently
nickel focused and obviously

357
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,120
nickels in the shutter as well.
So they're probably pushing out

358
00:21:38,120 --> 00:21:39,640
CapEx on the back of that as
well.

359
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,040
So it's a, it's a similar story
across so many commodities.

360
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,600
Is this just all the investment
looks horrible when you get out

361
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:52,360
to 2030 like all the resources
rolling over and I think demand

362
00:21:52,360 --> 00:21:54,600
is going to be surprisingly
strong.

363
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,520
And yet anyone trying to invest
on this generally had a quite a

364
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,000
rough time.
If you I've got a small position

365
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,240
in Subarnier, they're just being
beaten up in there.

366
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,160
So that's why I kind of find the
rhodium even more fascinating

367
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,920
and like pretty Chuck such a big
slab in it.

368
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,720
We were we were we were in the
Bush Feld and we'd we'd visited

369
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,800
a pic the PGM operation.
I sent you a message pitching

370
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,200
you a stock and you're like no
I'm happy.

371
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,240
Holding physical rhodium and out
of the money call options is

372
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:24,920
Subarnier is my barbell
strategy.

373
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,960
Yeah, exactly.
Well, I just I've been beaten up

374
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:33,040
so much reminders that when I
find something clean like this,

375
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,560
because it's it's the other
thing that's so exciting when

376
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,520
you get to own physical is you
and sit and inherently have a

377
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:43,680
call option on South Africa
going to shit, which has been a

378
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,160
high, high probability sort of
outcome recently.

379
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:52,040
And whether it's load shedding.
We're at some of the bills that

380
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:58,960
passed recently that are pretty
on like pretty concerning I

381
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:04,360
guess.
And yeah, with physical and 85%

382
00:23:04,360 --> 00:23:08,800
of rhodium coming out of South
Africa, if things do take a real

383
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,000
turn for the worst there, you've
got a call option on that

384
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:14,840
because yeah, you can expect
them the supply to get a lot

385
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,040
tighter.
And so I love it from that angle

386
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,280
as well.
With it was Subarnier an

387
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,680
increasingly Anglo American
platinum with it just being sold

388
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:29,560
down by its parent.
It's just that's kind of a, a

389
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,320
hedge that maybe Palladium and
platinum also run hard.

390
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,640
And yeah, maybe if there is
potential that rhodium gets

391
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,040
substituted in some way, it's
always going to be like, what

392
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,800
can go wrong?
And the thing with rhodium is

393
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,920
you've got 85% of its demand is
just purely catalytic

394
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,440
converters.
And there is a, there is a, a

395
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:55,000
possibility that it could be
kind of engineered out of a

396
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,440
catalytic converter or severely
reduced.

397
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:01,200
Maybe some new AI can work out
how to substitute plating or

398
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:04,640
platinum or some other element
to really reduce it.

399
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:09,600
And so it's not as kind of ear
tighters say uranium where you

400
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:15,960
just, you know, this was a 440
reactors operate in the 65 under

401
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,080
construction and they're all
going to require uranium.

402
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,280
They're not going to all
suddenly switch to forum or

403
00:24:20,360 --> 00:24:24,080
something else.
It was the, the comment we heard

404
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,400
when we were in South Africa was
the the loading of yeah, like

405
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,800
platinum and Palladium in some
of these plug in hybrids is, is

406
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,840
decreasing pretty substantially
over time as well.

407
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,280
Which again, I mean that's kind
of like the whole lithium

408
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,040
intensity thing in the, in the
AV batteries that we saw play

409
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,640
out too in some respects.
But the end of the day, at the

410
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,440
moment you still need it.
You need it in in substantial

411
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,080
quantities even if there is a a
reducing load.

412
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,080
Yeah, what they So they can only
reduce it so much.

413
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:57,040
So they've got the, a lot of
what I see extrapolated with

414
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:01,560
China sort of going into like
near 0, like Western media loves

415
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,360
to pick certain headlines like
this is their solar build out,

416
00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:06,400
this is their, and this leaves
out that they're sort of

417
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,840
building a coal plant next to
the the solar grid.

418
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:15,280
And one thing that most
developing countries are pushing

419
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,880
very hard is matching emission
standards because they don't

420
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,440
want the smog.
They've seen what sort of China

421
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,120
and India have gone through.
So the emission standards are

422
00:25:24,120 --> 00:25:30,720
quite high and that requires
sort of a minimum PGM loading.

423
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,840
And then on the demand side, I
think demand is just going to

424
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,240
continue to surprise to the
upside for these new energy

425
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,440
vehicles because a lot of the
buyers are going to be first

426
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,400
buyers.
So they're just going to keep

427
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,400
the demand will just keep
showing up because now I know

428
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,960
I'm seeing it here in in
Indonesia and Bali.

429
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:55,080
I drove down to Eluado on
Valentine's Day with my wife and

430
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,440
we just got stuck in traffic and
I just ended up counting Byds

431
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:00,880
and I'd never seen them before
maybe six months.

432
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:05,440
And I counted like 2530 on just
the way down to Alawatu all

433
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,200
brand, brand spanking you.
And you can pick these up for

434
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:16,640
sort of 15/14/15 thousand US and
they're just crazy, like build

435
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,760
quality, crazy mileage,
beautiful, beautiful cars.

436
00:26:21,360 --> 00:26:25,560
And at that sort of price point,
there's a lot of people that

437
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,160
are, is going to be sort of an
upgrade from a scooter to to

438
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,040
that sort of vehicle.
And I think think demands going

439
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,240
to really surprise to the upside
across the whole developing

440
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,160
world.
Whereas it's going to disappoint

441
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,880
across the Western world, which
is where everyone's sort of

442
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:42,520
pointing and saying, look at the
tariffs.

443
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,160
They're going to defend their
their domestic industries and

444
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:48,680
stunt Chinese growth.
But I don't think that's where

445
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:52,200
China's looking to grow.
Can you get any exposure to who

446
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,760
builds the catalytic converters
outside of the materials itself?

447
00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:03,560
You can with Johnson, Matthew, I
think Matthew, maybe it's a PGM

448
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:08,080
sort of processor.
Few people I respect have

449
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:11,280
pitched that as a sort of an
investment angle.

450
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,560
I kind of went through it and I
couldn't get nearly as excited

451
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,200
about it as just going straight
rhodium.

452
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,360
I'll tell you what I could get
bloody excited about, Ferg is

453
00:27:21,360 --> 00:27:25,200
SWIG approaching 18,000,000
drill meters Wow, there we know

454
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:30,520
there are 17,000,000 JD 1818
millions around the corner and.

455
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:32,040
It's a hard number to wrap your
head around.

456
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:33,200
I.
Still haven't.

457
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:37,640
I still haven't heard the the
absolute staple for underground

458
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,040
exploration drilling.
And mate, they are going down

459
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,880
there breaking a bloody record
every day.

460
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,000
Because I want to know what the
record is for the deepest

461
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,320
underground diamond drill hole
ever drill.

462
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,920
Because if Deep X haven't
drilled it yet, they're probably

463
00:27:53,120 --> 00:27:57,040
about to drill it.
So yeah, wow, if someone knows

464
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,760
that.
Any day now, any day.

465
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:04,640
Any day, right?
Or just the fact that they drill

466
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,240
the longest diamond holes in the
world is just nothing to be

467
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,200
ashamed of or unbelievable.
Go sweet, go deep, X.

468
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:18,120
Your point on on BYD is, is
fascinating and we're seeing it

469
00:28:18,120 --> 00:28:20,000
here in Australia as well.
I think you can now get one for

470
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,840
under 30 grand Aussie.
That's the the 1st AV to get

471
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,680
below that price.
And I also saw that in the top

472
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:31,480
ten, I think it was 6th place
best selling car in Australia is

473
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,120
the byd Ute.
It's it's mind blowing.

474
00:28:35,120 --> 00:28:39,960
And I think about stuff you've
you've written of going long BYD

475
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:43,720
essentially and kind of short
Tesla and you haven't not

476
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,680
necessarily done this, but
that's kind of broad strokes.

477
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:51,080
How do you think about this and
how do you think about the the

478
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:58,240
Super excessive valuations on
some of these very popular names

479
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:03,520
in on global markets?
You know, I think Tesla's like

480
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,840
the prime example of it,
honestly.

481
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:10,280
Like it's people just have PTSD
from shorting that thing.

482
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,800
You see the shorts have gone
from 25% of float for years to

483
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,960
they're like 1.9% as of now and
the company's screwed.

484
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,720
I like what unless they're sort
of going to create robots and I

485
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,800
think I, I read an article a few
days ago that Kathy Woods season

486
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,400
producing robo taxis that bring
home like 90% margins within

487
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,600
like a few years.
And it's just all these like

488
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,160
sort of hail, hail Marys to
justify the stock price.

489
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,520
But to me it's getting eaten
alive.

490
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:45,000
You can see this in China.
They have like 20% of their

491
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,640
revenue in China and they're
just getting eaten alive by the

492
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,840
Chinese manufacturers.
The you just don't you just

493
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:56,720
can't compete in any arena that
China's decided wants to

494
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,200
dominate.
They really have just their

495
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,960
industrial policy is second to
none.

496
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,040
So they just open their cheque
book and they'll just absolutely

497
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:10,560
start a crazy sort of
competition war and fund them,

498
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160
give them subsidies, give them
big orders from the state owned

499
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,200
companies.
So that they got up to like 400

500
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,520
odd EV companies.
And now it's whittled down to I

501
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,440
think there's like 70 remaining.
But really it's 8.

502
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,720
And really it's really it's like
two or three when you consider

503
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:30,920
BYDS now got 37% domestic market
share in China and just

504
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,400
dominating and no one can
compete with that.

505
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,560
And the problem with Tesla's
valuation there was price like

506
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:42,040
it was going to take over an
increasing share of global

507
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,320
market share when it's just
getting eaten alive.

508
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,360
Like you just put BYD next to a
Tesla.

509
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,800
And I couldn't agree with you
more.

510
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:54,600
Like how every release by BYD is
almost like when the iPhones

511
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,160
used to come out.
It's just exciting.

512
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,520
Like what are they going to
release now?

513
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:02,400
Like a seal that can do 2100 KS
on a single charger and tank gas

514
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:06,640
their 4 wheel drive which can
float and drive across lakes and

515
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,520
it could sideways park or do a
360 on the spot.

516
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,720
The wheels that can fully spin
around.

517
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,960
Yeah, crazy.
I, I, I haven't even.

518
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,280
I haven't Even so quote me on
this because I looked it up.

519
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,000
I had a friend told me that
they're doing some sort of a

520
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,880
flying a flying vehicle and I
haven't I haven't even looked

521
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,360
into that.
I was like just what is this

522
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:32,600
company and how how is this
trading 25 times Ford PE and or

523
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:36,040
I don't even think it's 25.
I think it's like 21 and Tesla

524
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,640
grand has probably come down
since I looked at it, but it was

525
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:45,440
like over 100 Ford PE yeah, it's
long long short was yeah, I've

526
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,360
I've happily had that long short
on, but I'll probably more

527
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,240
happily have probably a bit late
now, but would have been like

528
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,400
long rhodium short lithium for a
while then.

529
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,800
Well, they've got baywides,
haven't got home batteries now

530
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,520
to compete against the Tesla
Powerwalls.

531
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,440
Yeah, they'll get big tickets
from WA given that.

532
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,280
Yeah, a lot because we just
roasted a lot.

533
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:09,680
WI's just announced 20,000
batteries get a $5000 rebate in

534
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:13,520
from July 1st.
So what's if that sort of takes

535
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:14,680
off?
Imagine if households start

536
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,720
taking up home batteries to
connect to solar and that

537
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,440
becomes the addition to EVs.
Like how much?

538
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:25,160
Why do you putting towards the
intensity for all the materials

539
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,480
to go into them?
Yes I I haven't played the

540
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,240
battery side at all because I
just find it way too hard.

541
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:38,120
Like, I think BYD is the perfect
example of that is you'd, if

542
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:42,920
anyone had, if you just had a
flat spreadsheet of how many

543
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,040
cars they're pumping out and you
rewinded five years, you would

544
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,160
have thought the whole EV thesis
was actually like on fire.

545
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,200
It had been really correct.
But what if you're looking at

546
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,840
the details, what they labeled
new energy vehicles, you'd

547
00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:01,040
realise that new energy vehicles
are up by 80% year on year,

548
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:03,320
whereas the EV's, I think
they're 8%.

549
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,920
So they're completely, I think
nearly 60% of the productions

550
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,560
now these plug in hybrids.
So they're, they're almost,

551
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,600
they're really reducing the EV,
the straight battery electric

552
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:19,040
vehicle out of their production
line to an extent.

553
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,560
And when you get into the
batteries, they, so the

554
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,760
assumption was it would be like
a whole lithium battery for a

555
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,520
car.
Now it's now it's only 1/3 of

556
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:31,640
that with what you need in a
plug in hybrid.

557
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:36,000
And then they switch to lithium
ion phosphate and see you've

558
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,000
only got a third and you've got
lithium ion phosphate.

559
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,280
And then they build a factory
last year that's switching to

560
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:46,480
sodium ion and that that's
nameplate capacity and sodium

561
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,400
ion can pretty much do their
current production and their

562
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,040
plug in hybrids.
And then their Chief technology

563
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,200
officer came out a month or two
ago and said, yeah, we'll have

564
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:01,320
solid-state batteries.
We'll have demonstration by 2027

565
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,000
and we'll have it commercial by
2030.

566
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,159
And it doesn't seem like a
company I want to take the under

567
00:34:08,159 --> 00:34:13,040
on like a Elon said that I'd
kind of have a giggle, but Byd's

568
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:15,840
chief technology officer, I
probably wouldn't bet against

569
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,400
that.
So yeah, to your question about

570
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:24,600
sort of the to them doing sort
of the Tesla power wall, like

571
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,080
what what battery chemistry will
that even be?

572
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,760
Will that be a solid-state?
Will that be a sodium ion?

573
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:34,000
Will that be I?
Because I always saw there was a

574
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:40,280
lot of talk of just how big the
lithium ion industry would be.

575
00:34:40,639 --> 00:34:43,000
And I just, yeah, I was always
like, that's a massive

576
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:44,440
assumption that it's the
ultimate winner.

577
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,400
A battery material that you have
spoken about sort of brought

578
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:54,960
away on electronics is tin.
What's your, what's your latest

579
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,840
thinking on, on tin?
There's been some very

580
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,680
interesting geopolitics that
we've touched on in the past in

581
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:05,000
the in the world of tin,
specifically in the DRC and you

582
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,360
know, the the one real Aussie
name has has moved quite well in

583
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,080
the past month.
What's your latest think in

584
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,320
there?
Yes I love it.

585
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,800
I wish there was more ways to
play it because I don't want to

586
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,240
size a just a single minor up
too much.

587
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,800
I always avoided Alfman purely
because I've just got too much

588
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:26,200
PTSD in Africa.
I just, I don't care how good

589
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:32,600
the miners, I just, I just don't
want to be in the DRC and prefer

590
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,520
to have a safe jurisdiction in
Australia.

591
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,960
And there's a kind of a great
risk reward at the moment

592
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,880
because people were so of
middle's X, they were just

593
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,480
annoyed with how poorly they've
allocated capital for years.

594
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,280
And they were like, oh, they're
going to do something dumb like

595
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,040
building up the cash buffer now
so they can get the other half

596
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:55,320
of ransom from the this JV.
That's pretty bloody accretive.

597
00:35:55,360 --> 00:36:00,240
That's a great use of the the
cash, especially with I think

598
00:36:00,240 --> 00:36:04,000
the market supply came down, but
demand also came down.

599
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:09,760
So the market hasn't done a lot,
but it's been sort of slow sort

600
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,560
of disappointing growth out of
China and some other developing

601
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,280
countries that have brought sort
of electronic demand down.

602
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,440
But I don't see that as like
kind of a long term trend.

603
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,560
I see that kind of surprising to
the upside and I don't think

604
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,360
supply is going to follow it.
So all things equal, I think 10

605
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:29,160
is going to keep surprising to
the upside and there's very few

606
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:33,640
ways to play it.
And yeah, so I'm, I'm a messable

607
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,200
on Middlesex.
Ding, Ding, Ding on on Middlesex

608
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,920
Fig.
I saw a headline last week out

609
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,400
of Reuters that Myanmar's major
mine there, which is being kind

610
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,080
of shut down for the best part
of last two years has been

611
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:51,960
signaled to to return the the
man more mine in the WA state

612
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:53,560
there.
Have you, have you, have you,

613
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,160
have you thought about that any
kind of you know, short, medium

614
00:36:56,160 --> 00:37:00,320
term kind of headwinds on the on
the tin price?

615
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,280
No, no, I've got to have a dig.
I haven't actually read that

616
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,640
article yet.
Yeah, I need to put more work in

617
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,240
my My understanding was it was
quite high graded so they

618
00:37:10,240 --> 00:37:12,320
weren't going to see a big
production jump, but probably

619
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,920
need to go through it again.
What about Cobalt mate?

620
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,520
The lads did a good episode on
Cobalt the other day regarding

621
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:24,720
the, the new trust that is
coming up the, I don't know, we

622
00:37:24,720 --> 00:37:28,360
made-up our own name cut Cobalt
Unit Trust.

623
00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaking of things that are
hided and nearly not breathing.

624
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:40,240
It just seemed the journey this
was about to take on with the ex

625
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,800
yellow cake folk involved and
you know, they got the deal with

626
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:48,600
Glencore to buy Cobalt for it.
It looked like very early stage

627
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,360
sort of spot yellow cake
arrangements when I guess they

628
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,120
accumulated a lot of pounds at
lower prices.

629
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,040
And then obviously spa is
retracted a lot now.

630
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:02,400
But how do you view Cobalt?
I assume that has to be right in

631
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,400
your wheelhouse of hatred.
Yeah, it's certainly hated, but

632
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,360
I I don't see where the sort of
big demand boost is going to

633
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,160
come from.
So I can't get that excited

634
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,520
about it here honestly.
And I kind of got, if I were to,

635
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,200
it's similar to nickel.
Like I agree it's it's hated,

636
00:38:21,240 --> 00:38:24,960
but I just I don't know where
the sort of the demand upside

637
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,000
is.
And I don't have a sort of a

638
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:31,680
clearview on it, unlike, yeah,
like kind of like PGMS, how I've

639
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,800
got a Clearview.
Why the demands going to show

640
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,800
up?
I can't, I really have that

641
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:42,760
clean, cleaner view.
And so probably for now, it's

642
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,360
staying the sort of too hard
basket, I guess.

643
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:51,520
Granted, I'll just happily be
long almost any commodities I

644
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,080
think people will do well and
the vast majority of commodities

645
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,320
just as a .2 of higher
structural inflation.

646
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,240
I just want to be in the ones
where I can see like a a strong

647
00:39:00,240 --> 00:39:04,720
bid for demand that I don't
think anyone's thinking about.

648
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:06,960
I think that's a true measure of
height.

649
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,640
If it's hided and you hide it,
that is the that is the ultimate

650
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,840
height that any commodity can
have.

651
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:17,000
Well, I just haven't done the
work.

652
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,400
Ferg, I'm really interested to
to dive into the various sort of

653
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,000
cycles at play.
We, we started by talking about

654
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,360
this broader kind of cycle with
the big names getting a lot of

655
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,640
attention in, in markets like
the apples and stuff of the

656
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,560
world.
And then all the other places

657
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,960
you play in have their own kind
of cycles.

658
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:43,880
And when I think of the likes of
uranium, coal comes to mind,

659
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:49,520
offshore oil services, a lot of
these from say roughly 2020 to

660
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,440
23, four were in an up cycle and
they were and they were doing

661
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,480
well.
And then those 3, not all of

662
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,240
them, but those three come to
mind as having peeled back a

663
00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:02,520
little bit in, in certain
regards, you know, spot pricing

664
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:06,160
on on uranium coal prices have
sort of peeled back.

665
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,560
That was the sort of hell of a
cycle they they had.

666
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:11,760
But.
Some of those names are just

667
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:15,120
hugely shorted now.
So the the offshore oil services

668
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,760
names, you know, you know.
Like.

669
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:23,160
Noble comes to mind And some of
the the other US ones 15% plus,

670
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:27,840
you know, 10% plus shorted can
say the same for uranium names.

671
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:30,760
I think of that and you've
you've made me think of this

672
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,600
very well.
When you piece together the fact

673
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,080
that the likes of Tesla, nobody
wants to short them anymore

674
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,920
despite their insane valuations.
What do you think's kind of

675
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:42,760
happening there at A at a larger
kind of market sense?

676
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,040
It's more of a thought.
I haven't put the question

677
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:46,800
together well, but they're the,
they're the thoughts.

678
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:51,040
I know you, yeah, yeah, I think
there's different reasons some

679
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,800
sectors being shorted.
I kind of kind of be joking and,

680
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:59,320
and just looking across My
Portfolio and I have pretty

681
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:04,880
heavy shorts in almost all areas
and even even weird places like

682
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,560
kind of Chinese tech, which I'm
a I'm a big bull on.

683
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,120
And some of the ETFs are up
around 10:15.

684
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,320
There's even one ETF that's 40%
has 40% shorter interest.

685
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:20,520
And you go across to offshore,
which I think what's going on

686
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,320
there is like pawn shops that
generate great alpha.

687
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,520
They just short on sort of EPS
revisions next quarter.

688
00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:30,960
So they don't give a shit what's
where, how cheap stock is or

689
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,920
where it's going to trade out
like sort of a year from now.

690
00:41:34,240 --> 00:41:37,520
They're just looking like, will
it likely be revised down and

691
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,240
they just shorted into that.
That's what I'm pretty sure was

692
00:41:40,240 --> 00:41:46,320
going on with with offshore was
the only real reason that kind

693
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:53,800
of makes sense to me.
Whereas yeah, uranium I I I

694
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:58,560
thought it was kind of crazy
until this whole if they're

695
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,960
bidding that obviously sports
going to have to sell pounds.

696
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,640
That kind of makes it more sense
than if they were just bidding

697
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:10,360
on mine is disappointing.
It was interesting that when

698
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,560
some of them did announce and
they weren't actually that bad

699
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,640
releases like the likes of boss,
there was no covering at all.

700
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,560
If anything, they keep pushing
up the short interest.

701
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,560
So it means they're playing for
something bigger.

702
00:42:21,000 --> 00:42:24,040
And that actually makes sense
that they're playing for sort of

703
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:31,200
a, a sort of a, a liquidity
event, which is it's kind of

704
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,160
crazy.
Like the whole uranium set up is

705
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:34,960
just so ridiculous when you
think about it.

706
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:40,680
You've got this sort of monster
demands that's required.

707
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:46,280
That is 100% certain that it's
coming like in the favor out the

708
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,440
more certain you get it because
only by the time you get out to

709
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:55,000
2040, there's like £3.5 billion
required and only 40% of that's

710
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,560
contracted.
So if you kind of back that back

711
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:03,360
today, you're going to contract
into that is like 200, two £100

712
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,920
million a year.
And everyone's getting their

713
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:11,600
knickers in A twist that the
likes of Brought Uranium Trust

714
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:16,240
whether they've got 606465, they
might have to sell sort of a few

715
00:43:16,240 --> 00:43:22,480
£100,000 until the utilities are
inevitably forced to come to the

716
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,120
table because there's just not
enough around that you can't

717
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:33,720
operate with a sector where it's
60% uncovered and the miners are

718
00:43:33,720 --> 00:43:41,720
producing 25% under what's what
the yearly what the yearly

719
00:43:41,720 --> 00:43:43,400
burners.
And this is all like none of

720
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:46,920
this is like kind of
forecasting, like, you know, how

721
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,960
many operating reactors are
these are multi multi billion

722
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:55,480
dollar pieces of equipment that
have your animal, the lights go

723
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:57,800
out and they've been they've
been flexing contracts, they've

724
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,120
been working through their
inventory and it's all kind of

725
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:06,760
reached crazy low levels.
And so it's, it's the most

726
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:11,560
absurd thing because it's you've
got this almost like a pool of

727
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,600
petrol waiting for a spark for
spot to move and and the

728
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,200
utilities to start a contract in
size.

729
00:44:18,240 --> 00:44:22,240
And yet you've got no, you've
got no futures market or

730
00:44:22,240 --> 00:44:26,600
anything to keep sort of spot
market honest.

731
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:32,440
And yes, but does need to we'll
need to raise some money by sort

732
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:35,600
of halfway through the year.
So you could have a sort of a

733
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,000
real sort of a liquidity event
there.

734
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:40,720
And that's obviously what the
shortest are pushing for that.

735
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:42,400
That does make a lot of sense to
me.

736
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:47,280
Yeah, it's, and it's the, the
overhang of this, this vehicle

737
00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,520
that we thought the pounds were
locked up for Infinity forever.

738
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:54,560
Well, the kind of probably the,
the narrative sentiment shift

739
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,680
that can happen when, when you,
when, you know, everyone starts

740
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:00,720
thinking that this vehicle
should trade at a, at a

741
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,680
structural discount and have as
opposed to ever kind of getting

742
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,760
to the place where it can trade
a premium, which allows it to

743
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,480
buy more pounds.
Those pounds kind of seem like

744
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,040
they inevitably come to the
market in some way, shape or

745
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:13,880
form once the the narrative
shifts that way.

746
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:18,800
Yeah, yeah, great, innit.
But at the same time it's kind

747
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,200
of dangerous game as well
because there's as I think boss

748
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,160
on just volume that's like
nearly three weeks to cover that

749
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:29,640
position if they get trapped.
And it does any sort of there's

750
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:34,400
a shift in sentiment people see.
It's just everyone's absolute

751
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:38,480
laser focused on on spot because
the market's so opaque.

752
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:43,640
It's like coming back to Rhodium
like it's, it's since there's no

753
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:47,560
futures, there's no really
there's nothing for retail

754
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,160
investors to sort of grasp.
There's no information flow

755
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,240
really.
It's just a handful of of

756
00:45:54,240 --> 00:45:59,120
buyers.
So yeah, it's, it's going to be

757
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,320
fascinating to see how it all
plays out longer term for for

758
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:06,360
me, it reminds me, I often throw
this the study round that was

759
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:10,960
even God would get fired as a
active investor.

760
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,520
Then it's this idea that like
even if you could see what the

761
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:18,440
top performing stocks would be
five years out, if like the

762
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,920
saying, they're using God just
as like you, you knew with

763
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:26,160
certainty what they would be and
you set up a, an active fund,

764
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,760
like God would always get fired
because he'd run too much

765
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,760
volatility to get to the
outperformance.

766
00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:33,160
And so he'd always get dumped by
his investors.

767
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,800
And so many opportunities feel
like that at the moment.

768
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:41,000
Like I can see this dirty pig
supply demand gap, but it looks

769
00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:43,120
like it's going to be a really
volatile Rd. to get there.

770
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,080
And I don't know how many
retailers actually have the

771
00:46:47,080 --> 00:46:52,720
stomach to, to work through it.
And whether like when you point

772
00:46:52,720 --> 00:46:55,560
this sort of a set up out is
I've, I've got some friends that

773
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,920
have said I'll just go to 50%
cash and wait for the the event

774
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:02,480
to happen, then pile in there
kind of like waiting for a, a

775
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:07,320
COVID type, like kind of just an
absolute liquidity squeeze down.

776
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,640
And yeah, I don't know if that's
smart either.

777
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:15,800
Do you think the if the spot
copes going down or even stays

778
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:20,800
where it is at 6350, do you
think developers and producers

779
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:24,640
are going to start looking at
securing strategic inventory

780
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,720
again out of the spot market
possibly?

781
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,640
Possibly, yeah, I'd be a lot
smarter than what they did.

782
00:47:32,720 --> 00:47:36,360
Like securing a sort of in the
hunger recent highs.

783
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,640
Yeah, hundreds of people.
Just tried after a couple of

784
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:41,480
rides.
Exactly.

785
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:43,640
Yeah, No, it would make more
sense.

786
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:47,720
It's just, Yeah, even even
saying that it's such a funny

787
00:47:47,720 --> 00:47:50,800
game of, like, musical cheers
where everyone knows there's not

788
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:52,680
enough cheers in the middle and
the music's just going to stop

789
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:56,320
eventually.
It's when you look at the bigger

790
00:47:56,320 --> 00:48:00,080
figures.
It's just, yeah, I don't know.

791
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,560
I don't have any smart insights
on what's going to play out in

792
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,560
the next few months.
I'm just always like my mentor

793
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,440
whenever I say anything like
this is like, sounds like you've

794
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,040
been too smart.
Where's it going to be in five

795
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:15,360
years and almost just ride it
through to that and you just

796
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:16,720
cause yourself so much
heartache.

797
00:48:16,720 --> 00:48:20,440
If you're trying to trade the
market a few months ahead, it's

798
00:48:20,440 --> 00:48:24,320
just no one could do it and you
lose your sanity trying to do

799
00:48:24,320 --> 00:48:26,840
it.
I don't think I've ever it's

800
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:28,840
actually been the worst thing
that's happened to me.

801
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:33,360
Sometimes I've like I one that
was pure luck.

802
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:37,800
Like I put out a whole thesis
around Peabody about how coal,

803
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,880
how big the supply demand get
was, how cheap it was, how it's

804
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,120
going to be a fantastic
investment.

805
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:50,440
Put it out on Crux as years ago.
And then Russia invaded and

806
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,120
obviously coal prices went
through the roof and everyone

807
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,920
was like that was that was you
were spot on.

808
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:57,880
And I was like, no, it wasn't
spot on at all.

809
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,480
It was just I just got lucky
like that.

810
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:07,680
And yeah, I feel like a a lot of
that is just understanding that

811
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:12,640
the long term fundamental thesis
is there, but you kind of have

812
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,960
an understanding that deeply and
you can have a rough ride some

813
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:17,680
of this.
And that's why I kind of really

814
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:20,600
am attractive at the moment to
stuff that's not correlated.

815
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,960
Like probably most painful
lesson is how correlated uranium

816
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:28,840
and offshore oil have been like
just having the correlation all

817
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,520
just seem to go to one.
But they will just trade next to

818
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,280
each other and a big chunk of
the portfolio.

819
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,840
So that was just pure pain.
And whereas like if I map out

820
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:41,600
some of the my more recent
investments, like I've got some

821
00:49:42,240 --> 00:49:45,280
tiny little like OSV
shipbuilders that went bankrupt

822
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:49,560
twice, Rhodium, Middle 6,
they're all doing Chinese tech.

823
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,560
They're all absolutely ripping
this year and well, and they're

824
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:55,080
kind of helping offset some of
the pain and offshore.

825
00:49:56,840 --> 00:49:58,520
So yeah, just focusing more on
that.

826
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:03,360
There's some non correlated bits
which is a lot harder than it

827
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:05,760
sounds.
Do you think just to close the

828
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,360
Uranium One off, like do you
think it's just going to be

829
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:12,880
rough ride until we see a lot
of, because these reactor builds

830
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:14,960
obviously take a while.
Like China's probably the

831
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:17,480
quickest atom.
But getting to the point where

832
00:50:17,480 --> 00:50:20,360
so many are starting to come
online, they need the initial

833
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,320
one and a half million pounds to
charge the reactor.

834
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:28,280
And once that starts building
up, do you think it's just going

835
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:31,600
to be a rocky ride until then?
Because a lot of it's all under

836
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:35,680
construction on the way.
But there's not, to my

837
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,680
knowledge, not shit loads of
charging yet.

838
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,360
But it will come when China are
building 10 a year.

839
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:44,720
Yes, Mike Alcon's always been
vocal on this is that you don't,

840
00:50:44,720 --> 00:50:50,040
you don't need a additional like
just just the operating fleet.

841
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:55,440
There's a is we don't have
sufficient pounds on that and

842
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,120
and under construction, but as
you say, everyone that comes on

843
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:02,040
and you need what is it 2 to
three times the initial core

844
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:06,200
loading verse maintenance.
So that is like a sort of a just

845
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:09,040
bumps demand would be a very
additional wrecked around the

846
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,280
construction that comes on.
Granted they've already

847
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,760
purchased it when you're
starting construction.

848
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:19,440
So, yeah, so you're going to be
complete.

849
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,160
And then yeah, yeah, they've got
nothing to put in it.

850
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:27,320
Yeah, they're I, yeah.
I just think everyone's tearing

851
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:30,280
their hair out because of the,
you know, pakeness of it.

852
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:35,440
And, and yeah, as you say now
with what everyone's latching

853
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:40,080
onto is any name you look at,
you've got a whole lot of short

854
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:43,320
interest that is being the
smarter money.

855
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:51,560
And yeah, a sort of an event now
by sort of June, it's supposedly

856
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:54,680
spots going to have to liquidate
some pounds.

857
00:51:54,720 --> 00:51:59,600
But yeah, as a sort of ran for
the numbers that doesn't change

858
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:04,680
the overall outlook whatsoever
and that demands going to to me

859
00:52:04,680 --> 00:52:07,440
they're very pulled pretty much
every lever they can.

860
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:11,200
There's inventories are all
record low.

861
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,440
They've got to get the uranium
through the fuel cycle, which

862
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:17,960
takes, it takes a few years.
It's not just sort of take it

863
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:21,440
from the mind to the reactors.
There's a whole fuel fuel cycle

864
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:24,800
there.
There's been, if you look at all

865
00:52:24,800 --> 00:52:27,280
the stages of the fuel cycle,
that's all been rocketing

866
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:30,040
higher.
So yeah, I feel like this is

867
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,520
kind of like a mass extinction
event for all the retail

868
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:34,400
investors in it.
You've got to get them out

869
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:38,520
before it can then run.
And when that run happens I've

870
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,560
got no idea, but I I want to be
there for the start of it.

871
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:48,440
Chinese tech Ferg very yeah
hated sector even like 12 months

872
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:52,560
ago.
Things changed briefly when

873
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:57,360
David Tepper came out and was
banging the table last year.

874
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:01,600
And then like after after really
soaring off its base, like

875
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,600
peeled back a lot of the gains.
And then December, like the

876
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,480
stocks were trading kind of like
similar to where they were

877
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:08,120
before that.
And then they then they rocketed

878
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:10,960
again.
Like, well, markets, sometimes

879
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,400
they take the path of like Max
Payne always.

880
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:19,880
You still still think still
think Chinese tech is is pretty

881
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:23,120
undervalued here?
Yeah, this is my biggest

882
00:53:23,120 --> 00:53:26,800
position, position of taking in
one in whack, 1 whack really.

883
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:31,040
And so is it has even been
reinforced.

884
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:35,520
Anyone that hasn't had a chance
to go and read American America

885
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,920
First investment policy that was
released by the White House a

886
00:53:39,920 --> 00:53:44,520
week or two ago and this is
section in it and where and they

887
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:49,760
are reviewing removing the it's
the can't remember what it's

888
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,360
called.
Anyway, it's a treaty with China

889
00:53:51,520 --> 00:53:55,680
that they can essentially invest
in US assets with 0 tax.

890
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,120
And if they remove the treaty,
they go from zero to 30%

891
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:02,280
withholding.
And it's pretty damn significant

892
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:08,160
when you consider China holds 2
trillion of US assets and about

893
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:13,080
760 billion of that is in US
equities, which is kind of

894
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,440
fascinating when US equities
before this announcement were

895
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:20,160
already particularly MAG 7 and
NASDAQ were kind of struggling

896
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:25,520
to find their marginal buyer.
And the US has just told them

897
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:26,640
to.
I've got I've got a piece in the

898
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:28,760
works at the moment.
It's just telling the Chinese to

899
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,760
get the fuck out.
Like just out you go.

900
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,720
Your capital is no longer sort
of welcome.

901
00:54:34,240 --> 00:54:38,920
And as part of them having to,
they can't fix the trade balance

902
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,840
without fixing capital flows.
Like you can't just have money

903
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:43,840
keep flowing in if you're trying
to fix your trade balance

904
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:50,280
because it doesn't work.
And that's the question there is

905
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:52,760
if they're going to tell that
capital that 2 trillion sort of

906
00:54:52,920 --> 00:55:00,240
pretty much 760 of equities and
seven, I think it's roughly the

907
00:55:00,240 --> 00:55:04,640
same in Treasuries to, to get
out of the US, where where's

908
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:08,120
that capital going to flow?
And China's doing massive trade

909
00:55:08,120 --> 00:55:10,120
surpluses.
So if they can no longer pour

910
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:14,560
money into US equities, where's
it going to go?

911
00:55:14,560 --> 00:55:17,920
And I kind of reach 2
conclusions as two kind of

912
00:55:17,920 --> 00:55:19,760
obvious spots for it to start
flowing.

913
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:25,920
It's either they're gold, which
is got a whole piece on that

914
00:55:25,920 --> 00:55:29,040
going through this just massive
gap between gold and the gold

915
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:34,080
miners, which is just getting
absolutely ridiculous and and

916
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:35,840
sort of their own equities
essentially.

917
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:41,040
And that's you, you, it's always
been sort of a, a good rule of

918
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:42,840
farmers.
You want to be in front of, you

919
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,240
want, you want what the Chinese
want, you want to be sort of

920
00:55:45,240 --> 00:55:48,200
front running Chinese money.
And that's when I go through My

921
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:50,240
Portfolio.
I wrote a piece recently that

922
00:55:50,240 --> 00:55:54,840
was like, I just want to make
sure every area I'm in, there's

923
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:57,320
some strong Chinese demand.
I don't want to be fighting the

924
00:55:57,440 --> 00:56:00,240
Chinese in any area.
That's why I wrote one piece on

925
00:56:00,240 --> 00:56:02,640
sort of shipbuilding because
I've got a few shipbuilding

926
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:05,480
investments and I'm like, am I
competing with the Chinese here?

927
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:08,560
Because I'll probably get my ass
handed to me if that's the case.

928
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:13,080
And yeah, I just love it.
Love the Chinese tech angle.

929
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:15,920
I wanted sort of a broad basket
to catch all their national

930
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,800
champions, like going to the the
back to the EV space when they

931
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,440
went from sort of 400 to 70
players.

932
00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:27,960
And now the the champion out of
that, just no one's going to be

933
00:56:27,960 --> 00:56:29,280
able to compete with them
globally.

934
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,440
So they're going to dominate
global market share.

935
00:56:31,720 --> 00:56:34,000
And I think we're going to see
this across multiple sectors.

936
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:37,680
And it's kind of absurd that
they're all priced so stupidly

937
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:39,120
cheap by some of these
companies.

938
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,840
We've got like 1/4 of their
market cap and cash.

939
00:56:41,840 --> 00:56:44,640
They're trading it like before
the run up, they're trading at

940
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:48,640
like coal market valuations.
So I love the trade and I'll

941
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:50,760
probably be on the trade for a
decade I'm assuming.

942
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:57,440
China maybe three years ago
cracked down pretty hard as, as

943
00:56:57,440 --> 00:57:00,120
I'm sure you're aware, on on
lots of different industries.

944
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:03,960
And you know, almost overnight
they obliterated like parts of

945
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:05,720
the education education take
part.

946
00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:09,760
And around the time that like
Jack Ma went, went missing for a

947
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:13,200
little while, But he's he's back
in vogue and he's good friends

948
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:16,960
with XI again.
And the whole attitude in China

949
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:20,480
towards their national champions
has really changed.

950
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,320
How do you just think, I guess,
broadly about your your property

951
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:26,000
rights?
Do you just balance that with

952
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:31,080
being being so supportive in
valuation with the cash balances

953
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,680
that you speak about?
Does that give you real support

954
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:37,720
And now with the CCP on on side
with a lot of these companies?

955
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:43,760
You often that that later party,
like we said, CP being on side

956
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:47,000
is the key factor.
So they they have to like one of

957
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,800
my favourite charts is from
Louis Vincent Garth where he's

958
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:53,240
just showing that everyone is
still so focused on the property

959
00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:58,960
bust and they haven't realized
that the loans in total to

960
00:57:59,080 --> 00:58:01,560
manufacturing are almost
equivalent.

961
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:06,320
I think yeah, they're just below
sort of peak property loans.

962
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:11,320
And so they've just, they've
poured absolute trillions into

963
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:14,280
building up their manufacturing
champions.

964
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,120
And so it doesn't make any sense
why they would sort of harm

965
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:18,280
them.
They're actually just pushing

966
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:21,080
sort of they want free trade
globally because they know

967
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:24,840
they're the most competitive.
Like, why would they put, why

968
00:58:24,840 --> 00:58:29,080
would they try and damage that?
And this is largely because

969
00:58:29,440 --> 00:58:30,880
China's kind of changed its
game.

970
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:34,760
When you, when you think about
the China for the last few

971
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:40,120
decades, it was creating enough
growth to provide employment for

972
00:58:40,360 --> 00:58:44,840
enough people per year.
So they, they, it was kind of a

973
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:47,800
seem to be a rule of thumb that
if they could create sort of 8%

974
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:52,280
growth, they could employ 678
million people per year and left

975
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,600
amount of poverty.
Well, they, they know not longer

976
00:58:54,600 --> 00:58:56,400
need to do that.
Their demographics have rolled

977
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,920
over and so now the game is they
need to keep providing higher

978
00:58:59,920 --> 00:59:05,160
paying jobs for their workforce
and kind of fight this sort of

979
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,720
declining workforce.
Like it's then interestingly

980
00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:14,000
enough, they're one of the
biggest investors in in robotics

981
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:17,760
where everyone sort of if if you
don't show someone that chart,

982
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:19,720
they always assume it's like
Japan or somewhere else, but

983
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:23,280
it's actually China.
And so I think they're going to

984
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:28,040
do everything to nurture this
this of industries.

985
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:34,000
They Chinese have a lot of cash
and than notorious momentum

986
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,080
investors.
And so I think now that the

987
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:40,320
property bubble's done that
those flows are going to divert

988
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:44,640
into their own certain national
champions and that could give it

989
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:48,000
a very long runway.
It's going to be incentivized by

990
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:53,120
the CCP and they're also talking
of sort of stimulus to help get

991
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:57,840
it help keep momentum.
And once they announce stimulus,

992
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:01,160
they don't want you to sort of.
Lose face.

993
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:04,840
And so I think I think it's a
very robust trend and everyone's

994
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:07,520
just kind of suffering from what
we talked about with them.

995
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:11,720
A lot of the Chinese tech been
made to do national service and

996
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:16,240
almost been sort of rug pulled
by international interests over

997
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:24,560
sort of their overall sort of
profit motivated the actual for

998
01:00:24,560 --> 01:00:26,320
the shareholders.
But I think I think that's

999
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:31,440
changed.
Last one from me, Ferg, the the

1000
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:35,080
valuations in gold you just
touched on before, the massive

1001
01:00:35,080 --> 01:00:38,760
diversions between the
underlying and the, the some of

1002
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,320
the gold stocks is super, super
interesting.

1003
01:00:41,320 --> 01:00:45,600
So obviously a commodity that's
not hated where you tend to kind

1004
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:49,840
of play, but we just haven't
seen the equities follow the

1005
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:52,440
underlying to the same extent.
How do you think about that?

1006
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,680
How do you kind of position
yourself for that today?

1007
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,800
Yeah, So that's, that's probably
the most interesting divergent

1008
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,560
at the moment because it just
keeps getting wider.

1009
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:05,680
And what's fascinating is there
is literally 0 investor

1010
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:08,320
interest.
So you can, you can track this

1011
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:12,560
yourself if you just, you just
jump on Google and type like

1012
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:19,400
inflows into the likes of
GDXGDXJ or even G GLD, like just

1013
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,960
a straight gold ETF.
It's it's not actually getting

1014
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:25,720
any inflows.
If you take it back for years,

1015
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:29,680
it's still negative.
A few billion GDX is obviously

1016
01:01:29,680 --> 01:01:34,280
more negative and GDXJ just a
bloodbath.

1017
01:01:35,160 --> 01:01:39,920
And what's fascinating is even
with gold's recent performance,

1018
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:45,800
if you bring up, I know GDXJ
hasn't even had a single single

1019
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:50,240
day of inflows for six months,
which is kind of absurd when you

1020
01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:54,680
consider what gold's the price
performance of told itself.

1021
01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:58,200
And so what's going on here is
it's obviously central bank

1022
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:01,240
buying.
It's not actually any interest

1023
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,560
from investors today or
investors that are trying to

1024
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:10,880
probably pick up physical and
not playing it through through

1025
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:17,240
sort of ETFs.
Will this change will say come

1026
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:20,480
ahead?
So I'm kind of in a few mines

1027
01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:21,720
with it.
And the fact that like what's

1028
01:02:21,720 --> 01:02:24,160
going to actually turn, like the
charts are beautiful.

1029
01:02:24,160 --> 01:02:27,920
If you do the ratios, you can
look at sort of earnings per

1030
01:02:27,920 --> 01:02:30,080
share for the gold miners.
It keeps climbing higher.

1031
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:34,160
But at the same time, miners
being miners, they're all their

1032
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:37,840
mud, They're all the sustaining
cost margins are just blowing

1033
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:40,320
out as well.
Got a chart in 2024 where it's

1034
01:02:40,320 --> 01:02:42,720
just like a massive spike and
there's just like taking away

1035
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:45,600
all the profits you'd think
you'd get from being and best in

1036
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:55,400
gold miners and it's I think
what's probably the probability

1037
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:57,840
in my mind is that goal is
probably going to be revalued

1038
01:02:57,880 --> 01:03:02,720
significantly and that will
bring investor attention back to

1039
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:04,920
it because the gap will just get
silly.

1040
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:09,120
And also once we experience some
inflation, a lot of the crypto

1041
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,080
crypto projects will trade
towards their intrinsic value

1042
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:19,520
and people have to start it's a.
Polite way of saying 0.

1043
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:22,480
Yeah.
And yeah, people have to

1044
01:03:22,480 --> 01:03:27,200
actually start concentrating on
something with some, some

1045
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:30,880
economic use case because I
think crypto didn't really

1046
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:35,040
replace a lot of like what was
speculation in junior miners.

1047
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:39,520
Like the I've got 1 chart that's
like all junior mining.

1048
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,320
The whole junior mining space,
if you can peer it back to the

1049
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:46,320
1990s was like 50% of the entire
mining market.

1050
01:03:46,320 --> 01:03:49,400
Now it's like sub 20.
So it's just been absolutely

1051
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:52,760
decimated.
And yet there's chart after

1052
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:56,160
chart where you you pull out the
supply demand picture and it

1053
01:03:56,160 --> 01:03:59,440
just falls off a Cliff out in
the 2000 and 30s.

1054
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,280
And there's kind of like
uranium.

1055
01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:05,760
There's there's actually a need
for Greenfield and but yeah,

1056
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:09,320
coming back to gold, it's it's
just tough to play.

1057
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:15,600
But I think it is, yeah.
A very just how hated the the

1058
01:04:15,600 --> 01:04:18,120
junior gold miners are is kind
of a fascinating set up here.

1059
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:21,080
And it's quite uncorrelated to a
lot of other stuff as well,

1060
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:24,280
which I like.
On the for the producers like

1061
01:04:24,280 --> 01:04:28,040
the things with you compare gold
on or for instance, like golds,

1062
01:04:29,600 --> 01:04:32,080
the costs rise because they
always got to be doing more

1063
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:35,480
capital to get deeper or do a
cutback or or whatever.

1064
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:38,280
Like you think of the some of
the best producing gold mines in

1065
01:04:38,280 --> 01:04:41,400
Australia in history, like you
Telfer in the heyday, Katie

1066
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:47,400
Boddington, like those long life
set up specifically Telfer and

1067
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,400
Cadia or Cadia as a block cave.
But you just don't see as much

1068
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:53,800
of it now because they're
obviously wanting the gold now.

1069
01:04:53,800 --> 01:04:56,440
So they'll go for the the
quickest way to get there.

1070
01:04:56,440 --> 01:05:00,440
But these big doesn't feel like
these big massive long life

1071
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:05,520
operations are being set up to
be low cost producers during

1072
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:09,240
those environments.
Like which ones do you do you

1073
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:13,560
pick for that?
Because technically shouldn't.

1074
01:05:13,560 --> 01:05:16,120
You might be just making shit
loads of cash on these long life

1075
01:05:16,120 --> 01:05:20,480
assets but that's been hammered.
Yeah, yeah, you'd think it's

1076
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:24,000
honestly like I go through it
and subscribe to some people

1077
01:05:24,000 --> 01:05:27,400
that gold pickers and it's
literally one of the hardest

1078
01:05:27,400 --> 01:05:30,480
markets.
Like I just, I increasingly

1079
01:05:30,480 --> 01:05:32,720
coming towards it as like you
just got to have like a kind of

1080
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:36,120
similar to like a VC portfolio
where you just have a basket and

1081
01:05:36,720 --> 01:05:39,280
you assume there'll be some real
out performers and then you

1082
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,400
don't try and pick winners
because it's it's just too hard.

1083
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:47,080
And my, my record of picking
like winners within mining has

1084
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:49,280
been pretty unblemished by
success overall.

1085
01:05:49,640 --> 01:05:51,560
So I don't want to play that
game.

1086
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,640
I like what I try to find
smarter, smarter angles.

1087
01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,960
Or if I am going to go in a
minor, I want a real, a real

1088
01:05:57,960 --> 01:06:02,600
unique setup that I think I can
like something being kind of

1089
01:06:02,640 --> 01:06:07,760
spun out of a major or some
someone off event that really

1090
01:06:07,760 --> 01:06:11,160
sets you up nicely.
But yeah, like what what you're

1091
01:06:11,160 --> 01:06:14,200
just talking about, there's this
great chart that because gold's

1092
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:18,080
not under invested in, I think
gold's one of the largest, if

1093
01:06:18,080 --> 01:06:20,520
you go through sort of CapEx by
mining majors, it's one of the

1094
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:24,720
largest sort of outlays and yet
they've got absolutely nothing

1095
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:27,200
to show for it.
You see kind of the the chart is

1096
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:30,720
just higher and higher
investment in sort of

1097
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,320
exploration CapEx.
And the chart of fines is going

1098
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:35,720
the opposite way.
It's just getting lower and

1099
01:06:35,720 --> 01:06:39,480
lower every year.
So it's kind of a, it's a

1100
01:06:40,160 --> 01:06:43,560
interest set up and coming back
to China where I think with the

1101
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:47,000
US telling them to get out of
all US assets, that's like the

1102
01:06:47,000 --> 01:06:51,400
end of parking capital and
treasuries and the obvious

1103
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:54,160
recipient moving forward is
gold.

1104
01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:58,880
And it makes sense that it's
kind of in everyone's interest

1105
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,040
that gold gets revalued at some
point.

1106
01:07:01,040 --> 01:07:03,200
This is the only asset that
doesn't really break, break

1107
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,600
anything.
If you if you do, you have like

1108
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:11,080
a 10X outcome on most
commodities, yet you, you screw

1109
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:14,480
some people up somewhere in the
world, like if oil goes up 10X

1110
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:17,360
and there's going to be a pretty
deep recession and a whole lot

1111
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:21,160
of bad outcomes.
But gold is the one that doesn't

1112
01:07:21,160 --> 01:07:22,600
really matter if it's got no use
case.

1113
01:07:23,480 --> 01:07:26,200
And so I think on a long enough
time frame, gold is going to get

1114
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:30,640
revalued very significantly.
And it means the miners, yeah,

1115
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:34,360
all things they call the miners
should be great performers.

1116
01:07:34,840 --> 01:07:37,840
And like to your point of it
being revalued at some point

1117
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:40,480
because the shit like gold gets
produced, that's a lot of wealth

1118
01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:44,360
to store.
Yeah, well, a lot of it's stored

1119
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:47,880
like the US stores it all at a a
fraction of it.

1120
01:07:47,920 --> 01:07:51,200
I think they all have it on the
books that I forget what it is

1121
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:54,680
sort of 30 or 40 bucks a an
ounce.

1122
01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:57,040
And so they have a big injection
if they just revalue it to

1123
01:07:57,040 --> 01:08:02,080
today's pricing, they get nearly
a trillion and more if it's it's

1124
01:08:02,080 --> 01:08:07,720
higher at that point of time.
But yeah, I, I think, I think

1125
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,720
also I because I didn't touch
gold for years, because I always

1126
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:13,600
saw it as a political metal.
Like why would you invest in a

1127
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:19,359
commodity where supply and
demand don't seem to matter for

1128
01:08:19,359 --> 01:08:24,479
the pricing of the commodity?
And so every time demand would

1129
01:08:24,479 --> 01:08:27,640
be too high to just issue more
paper gold.

1130
01:08:28,240 --> 01:08:32,520
And what I see going on in China
now is is going to eventually

1131
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:36,040
cause the elimination of that
paper market because people are

1132
01:08:36,040 --> 01:08:39,160
going to want, if you're going
to settle trade in gold, you're

1133
01:08:39,160 --> 01:08:42,080
going to need, you know, one
physical gold.

1134
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:43,640
You're not going to accept some
paper.

1135
01:08:44,080 --> 01:08:48,439
And so, yeah, yeah, I think
everything longer term is, is

1136
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:53,720
quite bullish gold.
I think that's a welcome spot

1137
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:55,479
for a lot of people in
Washington to leave the

1138
01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:58,080
conversation on.
Thanks so much for your time and

1139
01:08:58,080 --> 01:08:59,319
sharing your insights again with
us Ferg.

1140
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:02,319
Thanks Ferg Legend.
Love it.

1141
01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:04,279
Always have a voice.
Yeah.

1142
01:09:04,279 --> 01:09:06,560
Love the show?
Well there we bloody guy.

1143
01:09:06,560 --> 01:09:12,279
Love a good chat with Ferg.
As I've said in private combo

1144
01:09:12,960 --> 01:09:15,160
punt when you're punting your
money like he does.

1145
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:19,000
Full time trader but then has
such a long term outlook on

1146
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:22,680
everything and can be settled in
things for years like until it

1147
01:09:22,680 --> 01:09:26,520
actually comes to fruition.
That's a bit different to my

1148
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,120
techniques of what Trying to
flip it for 20% in a week.

1149
01:09:30,760 --> 01:09:34,520
But he's got some patience and
that's how he buddy, if it comes

1150
01:09:34,520 --> 01:09:37,920
off, it comes off big, so.
Absolutely no big insights from

1151
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:39,920
that chat, so thank you Trader
Ferg.

1152
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:44,120
Ohh mate, Ferg is possibly
coming to the GRX conference he

1153
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:50,479
reckons in Brisbane May 20th to
22nd. 190 or 160 bucks off your

1154
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:54,760
tickets if you use the exclusive
link in the show notes.

1155
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:58,840
GRX conference hosted by Ausman
and Ausim and bloody.

1156
01:09:58,840 --> 01:10:01,400
There's also the Ausim
Underground operators conference

1157
01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:04,600
in Adelaide before that April
7th to 9th.

1158
01:10:04,600 --> 01:10:06,000
Then we've got 100 bucks off
there.

1159
01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,160
We're just giving shit away
here.

1160
01:10:08,160 --> 01:10:11,440
It's brother and like to thank
you all the bloody great

1161
01:10:11,440 --> 01:10:15,080
partners at Mineral Mining
Services, Grounded Samba Ground

1162
01:10:15,080 --> 01:10:20,040
Sports, CRN Insurance, K Drill,
WA Water Balls, Jaro Jahanks,

1163
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:25,680
Sweet Quattro and Cross Boundary
Energy, also known as CBE, also

1164
01:10:25,680 --> 01:10:27,400
known as Tim Taylor.
Thank you very much.

1165
01:10:27,440 --> 01:10:31,400
Very money minder.
Information contained in this

1166
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:34,160
episode of Money of Mine is of
general nature only and does not

1167
01:10:34,160 --> 01:10:36,800
take into account the
objectives, financial situation

1168
01:10:36,840 --> 01:10:38,840
or needs of any particular
person.

1169
01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:42,200
Before making any investment
decision, you should consult

1170
01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:45,240
with your financial advisor and
consider how appropriate the

1171
01:10:45,240 --> 01:10:48,960
advice is to your objectives,
financial situation and needs.