Decoding Kazatomprom’s results & the uranium reaction

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Friday money miners.
Thursdays, Friday in our world

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it is.
Why not bloody?

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What have we got today?
We've got 'cause Adam Prom full

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year financial results where
years are going into a bit of a

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hedging spectacular.
Absolutely.

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Why?
Why not?

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Where it?
Becomes becomes super topical

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when people close out their
hedges and when the commodity

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price runs hard.
Doesn't it matter?

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It does, and when they close it
out with shares, Shawn Russo is

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going to be so proud that he's
like LED us to the water and we

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can do hedging episodes without
him.

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He's gonna, he's like.
Proud, proud dad moment.

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What else we got mate?
We've got mate all.

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Rounder grounds we've got.
Gossip.

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There is gossip flying
everywhere about bloody M and A

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and mostly gold stuff.
At the moment I'm just gonna

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unleash all my gossip.
Why not?

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It might be true, so let's do it
mate.

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I'm approaching a freaking
awesome week in Adelaide.

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Oh bloody you are next, next
next week right?

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Underground operators buddy. 100
bucks off your tickets.

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Make sure you grab them before
the conference.

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'Cause it's not having.
It after it links in the show

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notes and I've officially
extended my Adelaide Bender.

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Have you?
I'm doing, I'm doing underground

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operators and then I'm hanging
around for Thursday, the

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resource rise and stars gather
round.

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Oh.
Gather round.

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Quite a pertinent name 'cause it
is the AFL gather round.

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So mate, that's on the Thursday
at the convention centre and

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mate, just look at this fundies
footy and fine wine.

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It's.
Probably not horrible, doesn't

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it?
But the make.

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The fundies and fine wine.
I'm gonna absolutely love that.

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So bloody.
Yeah, mate, Grab.

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You're really taking one for the
team, Maddie.

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Oh mate.
Happy to help.

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Koshy's gonna be there.
Koshy.

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Me, me and Koshy bloody.
I don't know, I don't think I'm

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speaking, but I might.
I might just go up and start

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hijacking Koshy segments.
So I love it, right?

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Get your bloody, get your
tickets to that layer was in the

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director's special.
I'll hopefully remember to Chuck

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that in the show notes.
But bloody mate, it's all

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happening.
I can't wait.

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I'm going to be busted.
Up.

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Go away.
Jesus Christ, right?

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All righty, Maddie, we've done
prom.

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We've taken it away.
There's a bit more bloody, Yeah,

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there's a bit of a bit of the
the uranium spot price has gone

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up a dollar and it's all green
on screen.

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For the uranium.
I think someone there was

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probably, well there's 11 carry
trade, put it up a dollar, so

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there you go.
There's some optimism everywhere

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we're.
Foolish again, and a couple of

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interesting comments out of
Casadam Prom's full year

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results.
So yeah, the old what do we got?

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I'll bring up the old watch list
on screen boss up 10% bloody.

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Where's Paladin?
They're up a couple next Gen.

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back up four or five.
So there's a bit of yeah,

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they've Oh no, change their
changes everyday spot price back

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up to 6450 a pound US.
So now for 'cause Adam Prom's

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results, what do we got?
So I hate financials, are there?

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So I just don't speak the
language, but I'll do me best

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revenue revenue.
So they've the the some of the

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whole thing that I will say that
the all the talk a year and a

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bit ago was around the risk of
the sulfuric acid thing for

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because Adam prom and like these
downward guidance revisions and

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like the risk that they're just
not going to be able to hit

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their targets and it's going to
send whirlwinds.

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But like to their credit, they
it had they've delivered like

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they did revise the guidance
down, but then revised it back

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up and they hit that guidance.
So it actually like what the

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whole thesis that was coming
about didn't didn't really

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happen looking looking back on
it.

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So now, so if you look at their
revenue and they remember like

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uranium prices going up a bit
last year, it's come back down,

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but from the previous year it's
going up.

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So it's like group revenue was
up 26%, EBIT attributable

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EBITDAR up 23% and cash flow up
19%.

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So and they're obviously siding
the higher production cost for

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the uranium produced like for
inflationary pressure, higher

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cost for purchased uranium which
is which saw their cost of sales

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up 39%, so.
Explain that quickly, Maddie,

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given they're the the the
producer.

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They're, well, they've got to my
understand they produce it, then

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sell the pounds to the JVS.
So you're selling it to them at

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A at a higher price.
So that's gotcha.

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Yeah, that little shimmy works.
Think.

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Yeah.
So that they, they sold at an

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average realized processor at
6950.

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Yeah, right.
And I think the average uranium

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price last year was in it's down
there average weekly spot price

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last year was 8628.
There's obviously still some a

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lot of you know, contracts with
Russia, China and the like.

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What, you know, booting off
scores first two years has gone

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to Russia.
So yeah, now they exceeded their

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revised guidance.
So if you remember there in so

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January 2024, there was sort of
two revisions.

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They reduced their 24 guidance
to it was 25.3000 tonnes.

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So I tell you tonnes of uranium
time that times that by 2.6 to

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get the actual U3O8.
They dropped that from 25300

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down to 21750 and that was all
around the challenges of

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sulphuric acid availability and
construction delays at the newly

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developed projects.
Then in August last year they

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then increased it back up to 22
1/2 to 23 1/2 thousand tonne AU.

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So and they, you know attribute
that better expected operational

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performance which which led to
that.

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So and they actually hit 23,
270.

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So sorry they didn't exceed it.
They just got pretty much at the

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at the top end.
So as I said, they're actually

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like, you know, delivered on it
across all their operations on a

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on 100% basis.
And just a refresher for those

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who aren't aware, why is
sulfuric acid and availability

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of it important for producing
uranium?

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So, so because they're all in
situ recovery operations, like

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the sulfuric acid is one of the
main components needed to, you

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know, flush, flush the paleo
channel to leach the uranium.

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OK.
As part of that process.

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Yeah.
And and the biggest, the bigger

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industry that gets preference
for sulphuric acid in Kazakhstan

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is the agricultural industry.
So I think uranium then comes

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second side and there's they're
in the process of building

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sulphuric acid plant or a couple
there at the moment.

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But I don't think they're
scheduled for a lot.

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There's been delays.
I don't think the schedule's

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sort of 2728.
So that's it's that.

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Period.
Competing sort of uses for it,

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yeah.
Sort of, yeah.

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And then obviously around the
whole Russia, Ukraine thing,

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supply chain logistic issues
like you couple all that

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together.
But it seems like they're it's

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getting like they're producing,
they're hitting the target.

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So it must be subsiding bit the
interesting bit is the group

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inventory that fell a further
13%.

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So they're I guess they've got I
think their group inventory is

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6334 thousand tonne of you.
So I'll be out.

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I think it's the one that the
one that references the cap

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inventory of finished goods,
which is 5400, which is about

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14,000,000 lbs.
So they're, you know, they're

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guiding to produce 65,000,000
lbs and they've only got

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14,000,000 lbs of inventory and
that's at a decade low.

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So, and they did come in at the
end here that they will consider

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purchasing from the spot market
to begin lifting inventories

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again.
So it's that that's sort of gone

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towards the the bulls thesis
that if the inventories are that

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low, there's them coupled with
all the utilities will at some

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point have to really enter the
market to give that give that

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catalyst they're all talking
about.

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So that yeah, that that is
historical decade lies there.

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So their, their costs have
obviously gone up all in

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sustaining costs has gone up
nearly 30% up to 2765 US pound

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and their CapEx also rose to
rose 58%.

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And then their guidance that
they've put out.

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So they it already CapEx already
rose 58% to 317,000.

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I think that's what is it.
K What's the currency called?

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Kazak.
Kazak. 10 guy, 10 guy, 10 guy

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isn't.
It so that comes out at a bit

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over 600 million US, yeah.
So and then that's that's risen

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again in their garden.
So they've reiterated their

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production volume guidance of 25
to 26, half thousand tonne of

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you, so about £65 million.
But their CapEx has gone up to

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about 400 midpoint of 400,010
K400 billion, 10K10 guy or 10K

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with AJ10 guy.
There we go bloody currency

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experts here.
So and a lot of that you can see

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a lot.
So there's a lot of CapEx going

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towards booting off score that's
there.

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That's the big humdinger that's
in the JV with Russia thing.

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It's about what is it going to
about £16 million or something

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6000 tonne a year.
So a lot of CapEx going towards

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that.
They also mentioned the other

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one, the Catco JV, that's the
one with the Rano and the

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Altaric JV.
So, but the, I guess the

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inference that some of the
commentators are saying that

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with a lot of CapEx going to
burden off score, they're trying

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to and and reiterating guidance,
they're trying to really maybe

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put everything into that to pull
that forward.

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That's pull as much of that
forward as possible and get to

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the 6000 tonne output as quick
as I can.

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So what's that that sorry, it's
£14.4 million.

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So yeah, that's I think that's
where a lot of the attentions

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go.
And they said they're going to

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drop the guidance for JV in car
because they did have the pause.

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That's the one with Kamiko.
They did have the pause for that

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earlier in the year, but it has
already started.

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So yeah, it's all all booting
off score, which is expected,

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but the the news also coming out
yesterday and this was it's not

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like flashing everywhere, but I
looked at it from a couple of

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sources.
Quakes quakes on blue sky said

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00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,680
it quakes has got a parody
account back on Twitter now that

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00:10:45,680 --> 00:10:49,960
some blows some like just post
quake shit on Twitter that he's

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00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:54,120
posting on blue sky.
So, but it's saying that because

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Adam prom there's some potential
government legislation,

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potential legislation coming in
where for any expansion of these

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uranium JVS or future projects
that cassatomprom will take 90%

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share in that joint venture.
So oh wow, a lot of these are,

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you know, like for instance, the
one with like Catco, I think

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it's 51% Urano for Urano, 49%
cassatomprom.

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00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:28,440
So pretty much if they there, I
think, I think that CATCO one

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00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,280
goes to their sub soil use
agreement goes to 2038.

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00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:36,440
I think Kamiko Zinko JV expires
in 2045.

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00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,640
So it's not it's they're ages
away.

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00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:40,880
So they're safe to them.
But if they wanted to expand

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that or.
Beyond that?

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Point new JV for another area
because Adam probably will take

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90% of that JV.
So that that's some pretty,

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00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:53,920
yeah, could be some, it's pretty
early news, but I think that's

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going to be pretty influential
news for, you know, because Adam

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Prom's control of the Kazakhstan
stuff, I don't know how that'll

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work with Russia and everything.
It's probably a bit different

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00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,840
relationships than us old folk
in the West.

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00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:13,080
But yeah, so that's going to
definitely keep me eye on that.

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So that's that's about it.
They're producing uranium.

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Go uranium.
Well, have you got any queries,

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JD?
Not so much queries mate, but I,

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I had also seen to sort of go in
addition with what you said at

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the end there about how the, the
Kazaks are viewing investment

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00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,560
in, in their country.
And they'd sort of teed up this

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big $2.6 billion package last
night broader.

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00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,360
We're not just talking about
uranium here, but minerals

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00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,640
investment.
And the slant of it was to to

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align it with products that the
US want, which is a bit odd to

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the grand.
I haven't, I haven't gone kind

225
00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,880
of deep in it, but it was
interesting to see them aligning

226
00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,040
with a a potentially more
western side.

227
00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,840
And but that potentially that
was just the the journal who

228
00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:01,600
wrote the articles kind of take
of it.

229
00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,520
But that's one to to dive a bit
deeper on I reckon.

230
00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:05,840
Very much so.
Do you?

231
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,320
Who's the bloody Gerard James
equivalent in Kazakhstan that

232
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,760
drills out these paleo channels?
Kazakhs.

233
00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,600
Who's Kazakhstan?
Water boars.

234
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,400
I don't think he can be.
I don't think he can be matched

235
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,880
anywhere in the world.
No, no, but WA water boars, the

236
00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,560
mud Rotary experts, the best
bloody drillers in Australia,

237
00:13:23,560 --> 00:13:25,880
like like they're, you know,
they've conquered water boars,

238
00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,960
uranium, paleo channels is the
next thing and I'll keep hopping

239
00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:30,920
on and about it, but it will
happen mate.

240
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,240
What are they mate?
6 high capacity water well rigs,

241
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,280
2 road trains.
Cart cart around all their own

242
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,280
shit.
Self-sufficient camps.

243
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:44,920
Merger opportunity.
Sufficient grounded camps for WA

244
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,800
water ball size.
Love it, right?

245
00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,200
How good's that they?
Can drill for water or they can

246
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:52,800
drill for uranium, whatever
needs mud Rotary.

247
00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,560
The experts give them a buzz.
Love it.

248
00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:01,080
Good energy, awesome.
Capricorn closing out the, I

249
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,520
wouldn't say the infamous hedge
book, but it was being kicked

250
00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,040
down the road a bit.
It was coming, coming up to

251
00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:11,480
close another year and a bit,
wasn't it?

252
00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:14,040
Well, after they kicked a couple
more kicked down the road.

253
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,480
But anyway, it's closed out.
It's all good.

254
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,400
Requiring a block.
Traded the shares already and

255
00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,560
she's good to go.
Take us through.

256
00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,800
Yeah, spin the yarn.
Yeah, so, So what they closed

257
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:30,440
out was 55 odd 1000 oz Maddie.
And the the reason it's super,

258
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,800
super interesting is that they
they did it with stock.

259
00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,120
So I think that extra detail
makes it really worth chatting

260
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:38,360
about.
And we've, we've noticed, I

261
00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:40,880
think we've chucked in the
director special here and there,

262
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,200
they've done the odd sort of
deal to wrap up tenements that

263
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:48,000
are contiguous with Karla Winder
and, and Matt Gibson here and

264
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,400
there, paid a million or two in,
in stock here and there.

265
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,320
But obviously this is of a much,
much larger magnitude.

266
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,600
And I thought it was kind of
worthy of a discussion.

267
00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,440
So to, to start with, it's not
new for, for miners, for gold

268
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,560
miners to, to close out hedge
books with a equity raise will

269
00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:09,640
flash up on the screen here you
can see Barrick, they, they did

270
00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,440
a kind of well known famous, so
maybe infamous is the right word

271
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:17,840
for this one raise in 2009, they
raised $3 billion and 1.9 of

272
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,480
that went toward close net
hedges.

273
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:25,080
So it's a, it's a bit of an old
trick, but to relate it to

274
00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:29,440
Capricorn and to talk about what
they've done, we'll go back to

275
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,520
August 2019 to start.
And this is when they were

276
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,160
financing Kalawinda.
I'll show a, a screenshot here

277
00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,800
from December 2019.
The hedges had already been in

278
00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,640
place from from August, December
is when they kind of got the,

279
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,160
the debt over the line with
Macquarie.

280
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,480
And as is customary, you've got
to have those hedges in place.

281
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,080
So standard 200,000 oz for those
listening on audio is what they

282
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,360
put in place at the time at 2250
bucks.

283
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,680
Now obviously at the time that
was a, that was a kind of decent

284
00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,680
price.
So The thing is they didn't

285
00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,920
deliver into these hedges as was
originally planned.

286
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,320
The operation got up and running
super smoothly as you'd expect

287
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,480
with the management team there.
There was barely a a hiccup as

288
00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,800
they coasted through to that
sort of plus 100,000 oz per

289
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,800
annum run rate.
I'll just just a quick Google

290
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:18,240
the price.
Aussie Price Gold on 18th of

291
00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:24,320
December 2019 was 18110 per oz.
Yeah.

292
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,440
So they had locked those hedges
in in kind of mid 2019.

293
00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,400
So already they were looking
quite good.

294
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,360
But as we kind of say and as you
noted in the in the opening

295
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:35,560
Matty, they didn't deliver into
them.

296
00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:40,800
So just a random example here
from June 2022, you can see that

297
00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:44,320
they rolled forward 30,000
ounces of hedges from the

298
00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:48,680
second-half of 2022 calendar
year to the first half of 2026.

299
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:53,440
Now those ones had that same
delivery price 22150 Aussie.

300
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:57,000
So again, you can see on the
same announcement kind of

301
00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,680
interestingly that they they've
done sort of small deals with

302
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,640
with stock, but they here and
there kept rolling out those

303
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:07,160
hedges, kept pushing them back
and selling gold into the spot

304
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,359
market.
Now in June 2023, they did the

305
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,560
first of these blocks where they
closed out hedges.

306
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,960
So all up they've closed out a
bit over 150,000 ounces in kind

307
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,960
of three blocks of roughly
50,000.

308
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,800
The first one was in June 23,
then in June 24 and then you've

309
00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,720
got this one from the other day.
So in 2023, they did, it cost

310
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:33,200
them on the day $37 million.
In 2024, they did it again.

311
00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,720
That was closing out the hedges
for the next roughly 18 sort of

312
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,560
months.
That cost them $70 million on

313
00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,080
the day.
That was also we've buying a few

314
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,880
puts to sort of manage that
downside risk.

315
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,600
So the 70 million accounts for
both, but the majority of that

316
00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,040
is just closing out your hedges.
Both occasions are paid for that

317
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,000
with cash, which is obviously
not what they've done today.

318
00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:02,520
So to to run everyone through
the announcement from the most

319
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,920
recent one from just the other
day, they've agreed with

320
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:08,800
Macquarie to close out the the
remaining hedge book 55,000 oz

321
00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:14,440
at Aussie 2300 so.
Which is a bit less than half

322
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,720
the current Spot gold price.
It's amazing, isn't it?

323
00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,800
Yeah, it it sure is.
Interestingly, they've purchased

324
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:26,480
puts to only account for half of
the previously hedged oz.

325
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:30,000
So if you look back at the other
two times the purchase puts to

326
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,600
account for the total amount of
the hedges they closed out.

327
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,120
So that's a kind of interesting
little detail.

328
00:18:35,120 --> 00:18:39,040
And those those puts are sort of
in 5000 oz blocks over the next

329
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,640
few quarters running out until
kind of end of 26.

330
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:45,160
And they're for four and a half,
1000 bucks an ounce.

331
00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,640
They are so a bit below where we
are today on that one.

332
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:52,360
Again, that's just the the right
to sell.

333
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,680
You don't have the obligation
for those that are not so much

334
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,240
into the finance side of things,
that just manages your downside.

335
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,760
If the gold price does fall
below it, you can just sell at

336
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,120
that price.
If it doesn't, you've paid a

337
00:19:03,120 --> 00:19:05,200
small premium for the right to
sell there.

338
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,640
And that's just that's money
you've lost.

339
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,360
But you've got the upside of
enjoying the gold price.

340
00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:13,880
Why it's kind of higher.
The transaction the other day

341
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,400
that cost him 147,000,000 bucks.
So that's the hedges, that's

342
00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:19,440
buying the puts and the
transaction costs.

343
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,640
And the vast majority of that is
for the hedges.

344
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,720
So 132 million is the back of
the envelope number I calculated

345
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,080
for that.
And to fund this $140 million

346
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,800
capital raise essentially is 7
bucks 90 and the remainder paid

347
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:36,800
in cash.
And exactly like you said,

348
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,240
Maddie, just look at the chart
here, you can see the volume.

349
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,240
They normally trade 1 to 2
million shares a day and on the

350
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,360
19th of March 22 million shares
go through.

351
00:19:45,360 --> 00:19:48,200
So Macquarie's slaughtered them
already, you'd imagine.

352
00:19:48,360 --> 00:19:54,600
Yeah, yeah, that is definite.
Yes, it, it, God, it looks, it

353
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:59,440
just looks like it's, it's been
like just all planned out.

354
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,120
It's like they've obviously
avoided rising capital at low,

355
00:20:03,120 --> 00:20:05,240
low prices.
Yes, the hedge book was there.

356
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,880
They've had to use cash, but
they've just continually had

357
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,400
that.
That that multiple on them like

358
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,880
the what would you say the good
earnings per share and now their

359
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,760
share price is that bloody high.
They just close it out with

360
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,320
minimal dilution.
It's.

361
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,560
Yeah, they, they talk about
this, they talk about this

362
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:29,280
strategy of closing out the
hedges and they say that's led

363
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,680
to 36,000,000 bucks in revenue
enhancements.

364
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:37,240
So that's, that's only from the
point where you decide to close

365
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,600
them out and then you look
forward and you see what you

366
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,200
would have had to sell it at
versus what what you've actually

367
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,560
kind of got.
You're analysing where the gold

368
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:48,800
price went from there.
It's not comparing it with what

369
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,800
would have happened had you just
delivered into those hedges

370
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,160
originally.
And you know, you can, I mean

371
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,640
hindsight's 2020, but you can
you make you can make an

372
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,080
argument that's $100 million
plus decision that they kept

373
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,080
pushing the hedges down the
road, but.

374
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:10,520
But did they?
$5,000,000 a 100 million not in,

375
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,040
not in cash.
So yeah.

376
00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:16,800
But did they did not delivering
into them mean that they made

377
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:20,440
more cash, they had a better, a
better multiple and their share

378
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,640
price got higher?
And like, it's sort of might

379
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:27,040
have been, you know, part of the
journey to get to today.

380
00:21:27,120 --> 00:21:31,200
There's 2 two sides really.
Yeah, I mean, after the fact,

381
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,240
you, you can't, you can't say
they've been in, they've been in

382
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,160
great financial health.
The markets traded them at A at

383
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,120
a significant premium to most of
the other names.

384
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:41,880
So it, it, it's super
interesting.

385
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,800
And you, you kind of think about
the two decisions like closing

386
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,160
out the hedges and paying with
script.

387
00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,960
But they're two sides of the
same coin, aren't they?

388
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,280
You can't think of them
separately because they wouldn't

389
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,560
choose to close out the hedges
today if they weren't paying

390
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,200
with script.
I mean, maybe they would.

391
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,400
I don't think they would.
And you can, you can dice it any

392
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,040
way you like, right?
You can say on the one hand,

393
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,120
you're going to be able to
participate in the rising gold

394
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:04,640
price, you're going to do
better.

395
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,960
That has been the case the last
two times they did it.

396
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,560
Or on the other side, you could
say they're paying with script,

397
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,840
they're using their stock.
They must think it's kind of

398
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,200
richly valued.
And like here, here's where I've

399
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:21,720
kind of come to it, come to it.
So management teams like this,

400
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,880
they will use their paper when
they are trading in the market

401
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,440
at the high end, you know,
relative to the intrinsic value.

402
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,120
And in the opposite scenario you
try and do a buy back or

403
00:22:32,120 --> 00:22:35,600
something along that kind of
wavelength and to tie in the

404
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,600
commodity price with it.
We've all seen gold just go on

405
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,840
an absolute tear.
It's gone nearly vertical in the

406
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,680
in the past year or so.
And commodities don't tend to do

407
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,240
that for too long.
And it's not to say the gold

408
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,520
price won't be higher in two or
three years time, but CMM, they

409
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,800
have far outpaced what the gold
price has done.

410
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,120
They've nearly doubled since mid
last year.

411
00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:58,680
And this is a sort of big
company and aside from the the

412
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,960
margin expansion they're going
to get from that, there's no big

413
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,200
changes at Karla window yet.
They're going to do an

414
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,200
expansion.
Obviously Mount Gibson, if

415
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,320
anything's been held up a little
bit in November, they already

416
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,480
did a capital raise $200 million
so that they would fund Mount

417
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,560
Gibson with new issued shares
rather than with debt.

418
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,200
They could have debt funded it,
but now they've got 350 million

419
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,600
plus bucks in cash and bullying,
they can do it that way.

420
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,040
And if you just look back to
like June last year, they've got

421
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,160
a a price to cash flow multiple
of about 10 times, that's closer

422
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,120
to 20 times today.
And APAP NAV that's gone from

423
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:37,400
about .7 times to about one time
in that same period.

424
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,920
So their decision today just
tells me a huge amount about

425
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,400
what the company thinks about
their value.

426
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,440
And you know, that could be the
the value of the the industry

427
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:50,280
more broadly and just how
quickly it's come on in the past

428
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,920
few months and.
What's it?

429
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:53,640
So?
What's their market cap now, JD?

430
00:23:55,640 --> 00:24:00,800
God, I want to say 3.3.
Wow.

431
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:01,920
Yeah.
So it's this.

432
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,320
Is a bloody let me, let's just
bloody check.

433
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,360
We'll check this live.
Three 3.4 yeah, Aussie.

434
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,080
So, yeah, I mean we're talking
about 4% dilution.

435
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:16,520
Yeah, yeah, and it's and and
look at it, everyone's like

436
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,080
great decision now your full
upside.

437
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,480
It's just that overhang gone and
you've done it bloody.

438
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,040
You're the best valued stock on
the market.

439
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,320
So yeah, it'll as you said, they
might the gold keeps.

440
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:34,400
Could it could it be interpreted
another way?

441
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,920
Like if they're like, well, I
suppose they could have used

442
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,200
cash or debt to do it.
If they if they're bullish on

443
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,920
gold price and they they want
the full value of it, you would

444
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:48,120
think you'd more be more
inclined to use cash or to do

445
00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:49,520
this transaction, wouldn't you
think?

446
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,720
I think in simple terms, yeah.
Because if the gold price just

447
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,960
runs and runs and runs, then
your margin goes up.

448
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,960
If you tried at the same
multiple, your stock is even

449
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,840
higher than where it is today.
So I think that's the kind of

450
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,120
simple way to look at it.
And it's like, look, it's one of

451
00:25:04,120 --> 00:25:06,720
those the there's not many of
them.

452
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,080
Like I think rail had the same
thing at Saracen, like Buddy

453
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,800
Bill was probably the same at
Northern Star on the rise like,

454
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,440
and Capricorn's the same
example.

455
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,920
Like it's you can you can point
to OK, right.

456
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,120
Are they doing this because
Carla Winder's going to get

457
00:25:22,120 --> 00:25:23,880
deeper.
There's going to be more strip

458
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:29,000
ratio, higher strip ratio.
There's potential risk for, you

459
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,480
know, Mount Gibson delays if on
permitting and if like you can

460
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:35,760
point to all them, but you're
just these people.

461
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:39,320
They've become self fulfilling
prophecies, these premium

462
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:40,800
management teams and these
stocks.

463
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,040
So you can you can go, oh, is
this the high?

464
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,560
And you start going against
them, but people just keep

465
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,480
buying them and it just keeps
fulfilling itself.

466
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,720
So that's why it is just near
impossible to bet against these

467
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,600
companies once they've got that
reputation.

468
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,880
Yeah, it's it's fascinating,
right.

469
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:02,480
Like at at some point it's got
to be hard to to live up to

470
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,320
right.
They've they've done such a good

471
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,000
job.
You go back to to what when we

472
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,760
started the the chat 2019 and
hardly, hardly put a foot wrong

473
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,280
really.
Like you can everyone can make

474
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,400
their own view up on on the
hedge book and delivering into

475
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,400
it, but it it really hasn't
affected them in in a massive

476
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,600
way.
Like it's they just, they've

477
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:27,120
just kept on delivering and in,
in an environment where gold is

478
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,440
up, like you said, Maddie from
late 2019, what is it like 2 1/2

479
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:33,280
times?
It's it's pretty incredible.

480
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,560
Yeah, I like, I feel, I feel the
same pressure trying to be like,

481
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,800
funny every day.
Like it's just like the weight

482
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,720
of the audience on me.
Like I know you feel.

483
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,920
Like.
I know you feel Clarky.

484
00:26:43,360 --> 00:26:44,920
You're going through the same.
Swear on you mate.

485
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,560
Oh nice, just you can't have a
down day.

486
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,880
And all this talk about hedging,
Maddie, does it remind?

487
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,120
You I'm not saying it.
I'm not saying it.

488
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,680
No, I'm not linking it again,
no.

489
00:26:55,680 --> 00:27:02,080
Are you linking like this like
gold like gold producers to CRE

490
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,920
insurance because they insure
heaps of gold?

491
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,800
Maybe maybe that's it that of
the of the IT was a layup for

492
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:12,640
the the Sean Rousseau hedging
CRE insurance.

493
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,720
But I'm not saying it.
I'm not saying it, but like.

494
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,560
We can talk about CRE
regardless, hey?

495
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:22,200
Well, like just to think all the
freaking bloody world class gold

496
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,400
mining operations around the
world that they are the broker

497
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:30,720
for to ensure they are protected
and whether that's from bloody

498
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,320
anything we might you could have
hedge impact protection mate.

499
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:39,520
They are the absolute insurance
broking experts for the global

500
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:43,400
mining industry.
Gold's one of them, Carl Bloody

501
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,040
any other metal, like any energy
they've.

502
00:27:46,120 --> 00:27:49,720
Got that new orange office as
well in western NSW too.

503
00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:52,640
It would have wonder if it's
painted orange as well.

504
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,720
Just it's just like to welcome
ourselves to the town.

505
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,520
We're going to paint our orange
office orange.

506
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,560
Go say our insurance.
Love your bloody.

507
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,240
Love your bloody, get yourself
insured.

508
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,200
Love.
It right, Jay, So you've gone a

509
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,200
bit deeper into, have you?
Yeah.

510
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,640
Oh, a little bit, yeah.
Yeah, no.

511
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:12,680
So all the all.
The you're looking at me like

512
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:17,080
wrong part, Matthew.
No, no, absolutely right part

513
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,400
no.
So all the the chat with the the

514
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,520
Capricorns news out the other
day sort of got me a bit

515
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:27,760
inspired guys just to look at,
well, what is the status of all

516
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,920
the other sort of Aussie gold
producers, you know, hedge

517
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,160
books.
So I went had a look through all

518
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,840
the quarterlies out from last
quarter 31st December from

519
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:42,240
pretty much any Aussie gold
producer that you know, 100,000

520
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,440
oz plus production profile.
So 13 companies all up and to my

521
00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:50,880
surprise not as many of them as
a thought are hedged at the

522
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:54,920
moment or if they are, it's a
pretty, it's pretty small

523
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,960
relative to their production
profile over the next few years.

524
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,680
And by the way, when I was, when
I'm talking about hedging here,

525
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,920
I mean companies with gold
forwards sort of hedges, not

526
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
necessarily those with options
hedging, which oh.

527
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,800
Not 0 cost collars and stuff, no
right.

528
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,680
Yeah, so I'll get my Ding Dings
out the way as well.

529
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,760
There's Vault, Genesis, and
Remilius.

530
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:16,720
I'll just go.
Do you want me to?

531
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,520
Do you want me to go get lunch
while you do that?

532
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:23,280
Go get yourself a barn mate.
So who's who's hedged at the

533
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,840
minute?
So there's I'll go for some sort

534
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,840
of biggest hedge book to to
smallest.

535
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,520
We've got Northern Star about
1.7 million oz at an average

536
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:36,200
price of 3242.
There's all Aussie dollar gold

537
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,000
prices as well.
This is out till the middle of

538
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:43,040
2028, so on average the the
hedging's about 1/4 of their

539
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,680
annual production over the next
few years.

540
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,720
As as Stewie said in the OR
studio, Simon said in the

541
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,960
quarterly call when they asked
about hedging, they're like,

542
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,560
look, hedging never works in a
rising gold price environment.

543
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:57,200
It's pretty obvious it's.
Fair comment.

544
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,800
And then Next up you've got
vaults.

545
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:06,240
So they've got about 209,000 oz
at an average price of 2841 out

546
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,680
till the end of next year.
So they've got the second lowest

547
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:13,440
average price of of the lot.
It's worth around 30% of their

548
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:18,720
FY20 six production, but then it
drops off quite a lot, yeah.

549
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,040
And that'll come in, come in,
that'll come in from the Red 5

550
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:23,280
debt.
Yeah.

551
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:26,400
I think that's a yeah sort of
legacy from that.

552
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,880
Then you've got Bellevue,
they've got about 196,000 oz at

553
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:35,800
2756 out till the end of 27.
So that's sort of the most

554
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:41,400
onerous of the lot as far as the
lowest average price out of this

555
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:46,440
group, but also sort of as a
percentage of their production

556
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,960
or sort of annual production.
So on average, the hedging

557
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:53,200
represents, you know, roughly
1/4 of annual production over

558
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,640
the next few years.
Then you've got Remilius just

559
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:01,800
shy of 100,000 oz at 3183 out to
the end of next year, it's about

560
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:06,160
30% of next year's production.
FY20 6 then drops right off.

561
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:07,560
Yeah.
And I think they said in the

562
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,720
Spartan deal, they haven't
secured any more.

563
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,480
Sorry, part of the mount magnet
expansion plan.

564
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,120
They haven't secured any more
Ford contracts, so it looks like

565
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,040
they're trying to unhedge
themselves.

566
00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:25,400
Unwind that and then you've
lastly you've got Evolution and

567
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,960
and Genesis who have both got
pretty, pretty small amounts

568
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:35,800
relative to their production
profiles, 75,000 oz at 3230 for

569
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:40,640
Evolution and 13 1/2 thousand oz
at 3684 for Genesis.

570
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:45,120
OK, so who isn't hedged JC,
Who's Oh no one WAFF because

571
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,560
they say the first line of
everything unhedged gold

572
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,880
producer.
They didn't form part of my

573
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,280
deal, but they did come to mind
because they always make like to

574
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:53,880
make it very clear that they're
unhedged.

575
00:31:54,720 --> 00:32:01,120
West Gold isn't hedged.
Regis Gold Rd. as of recently.

576
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:05,440
Capricorn Catalyst Orabanda and
Pantoro.

577
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,000
MMM.
I think well, one year probably

578
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,080
that has a bit smaller.
I think Perseus, they're a bit

579
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:11,840
they've.
Got yeah.

580
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,080
So they I looked at just the
Aussies, but yes, they do have,

581
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:16,880
they do have some hedging as
well.

582
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:18,960
Yep.
OK, what's the what's the

583
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:22,400
thoughts on it all Jay say?
So I, I had a look at also the

584
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:27,880
average realised gold price that
all these 13 producers took away

585
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:32,280
last quarter sort of averaged
about 3900 bucks an ounce for

586
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,080
the December quarter.
Now mind you the, the at the

587
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,720
start of the December quarter,
gold was at 3800 bucks an ounce,

588
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:44,200
finished at 4240.
But between then and you know,

589
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,640
we haven't even quite finished
the March quarter just yet.

590
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:52,440
And we're, you know, I did say
we ticked over 4800 bucks.

591
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:57,040
An ounce well that and and it's
so but it's funny looking at how

592
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,120
the percentages are working now
like you know, rose, you know,

593
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:05,800
in that 10 percent 3800 and
4240, but you know ten 1010% on

594
00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:11,560
4240 you're up near 4700.
So like the the increases by

595
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,760
percentage now having such a
bloody material impact on

596
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,400
absolutely profit like it's
huge.

597
00:33:17,880 --> 00:33:19,680
It is huge.
And then, you know, in any

598
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:23,440
event, you know, we should
certainly expect to say a a

599
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,840
decent jump in that average
realised gold price for

600
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,760
producers this quarter, you
know, even the ones that are

601
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,320
hedged.
So you know, obviously the ones

602
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,800
that are unhedged get, you know,
the full full whack of that, you

603
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:37,720
know that full exposure to the
gold price increasing.

604
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,160
But even the hedged ones sort of
get a bit of a double whammy

605
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,400
obviously to a lesser extent
compared to the ones who are

606
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,080
unhedged.
So I just had a look at like a

607
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:52,480
couple of the hedge books for
example of some of these guys.

608
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,080
So you typically say that, you
know, as they deliver into these

609
00:33:56,080 --> 00:34:00,960
hedge books, the gold price on
the hedged answers is typically

610
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,600
like a little bit better, a
little bit higher each quarter

611
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,760
or each half.
Or you know, perhaps the number

612
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,440
of answers they've got to that a
hedge that they've got to

613
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,360
deliver into sort of coming down
progressively or perhaps a

614
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,120
combination of both.
So you know, you're seeing them

615
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:22,040
get either a better price for
those hedged answers and or you

616
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,960
know, more answers that are
exposed to the spot price rather

617
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,239
than the hedge price or you
know, perhaps both.

618
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,880
So you know, look at even at
Northern Stars when we'll flash

619
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,600
up an example, sort of the
amount of hedged answers sort

620
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,920
of, you know, per annum or per
that half sort of increases a

621
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:39,960
little bit and then it starts to
fall right off.

622
00:34:40,159 --> 00:34:42,639
But you can see the gold price
is sort of you know from around

623
00:34:42,639 --> 00:34:47,920
3:30 increasing to 313233
etcetera over that period of

624
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,120
time.
Similarly for Volt, you know,

625
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:55,159
sort of you can say that the
percentage number there on on

626
00:34:55,159 --> 00:34:58,680
the screen sort of represents
what their exposure is to, to

627
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,600
Spot gold.
You can see that sort of comes

628
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,240
right down.
But also like the the price of

629
00:35:04,240 --> 00:35:07,040
those hedges sort of gets a
little bit better each period as

630
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,360
well.
But separately, going back to

631
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,840
what we we sort of mentioned at
the start is this sort of seems

632
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,080
to be a trend to companies and
these are those that are sort of

633
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:23,280
with traditional hedges in place
or unhedged entering into option

634
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,120
hedging.
So like these collars and put

635
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,240
options as a sort of form of you
know, like protection or

636
00:35:29,240 --> 00:35:33,080
insurance as opposed to
traditional hedging.

637
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,000
So like JD mentioned earlier,
you know, you sort of can

638
00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:39,880
maintain full exposure to higher
gold prices, but you're

639
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:43,560
minimising your downside on
those sort of number of answers

640
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:45,560
that are subject to those
options.

641
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,400
So, you know, a few companies
that do have option hedging in

642
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,720
place include Bellevue,
Capricorn, Genesis, Orbanda,

643
00:35:52,720 --> 00:35:56,400
Pantora.
So how do these actually work?

644
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,120
You know, you basically have the
and JD touched it all early.

645
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,160
You know you have the option or
the right rather than the

646
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,440
obligation to exercise those
options depending on the gold

647
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,200
price at the time and then you
deliver those answers at that

648
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,040
price.
So rather than locking yourself

649
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,280
in hedging this many answers at
this price which you have to

650
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,960
deliver into irrespective of the
gold price at the time,

651
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,720
obviously it costs money to put
those options in place, but

652
00:36:22,720 --> 00:36:25,600
you've got that sort of
flexibility and and downside

653
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,760
protection.
I think it's like, it's like

654
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,880
health insurance.
Yeah, they're paying a premium,

655
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,320
but they choose to go to the
doctor whenever they want.

656
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,360
That is a very good analogy.
Yeah, yeah.

657
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:40,560
Much simpler than I could have
thought of, yeah.

658
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:44,480
But yeah, it is in, in, you
know, that's a really, you know,

659
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:46,160
simple and easy way to think
about it.

660
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,720
Yeah.
Don't worry if you don't worry

661
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:49,480
about BJ.
So yeah.

662
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,400
If you want to be a bit cynical,
do you think some of these

663
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:55,600
companies are just saying, on
the one hand they're unhedged,

664
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,400
but they're managing that
downside on the other hand?

665
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,400
Yeah, I do.
I do think about that because it

666
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:06,240
is I guess it is sort of still a
form of hedging, but it's

667
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,320
because it's, it's more that
right, not the obligation that

668
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,000
sort and not that sort of
traditional sort of hedging

669
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,400
people typically have in their
minds that sort of run around

670
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,560
with these, you know, UN
unhedged sort of.

671
00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:23,040
Yeah.
And I, I, I'm, I'm, yeah, the

672
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,440
dollar fan of the, the dollar.
Yeah, the dollar value, but that

673
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:28,640
you pay for this premium
compared to what you could be

674
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:31,520
out of the money on on your
hedge book is well multi

675
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:33,960
magnitudes different, yeah.
It's capped.

676
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,600
Yeah, Yeah.
Yeah, no, that's right.

677
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,600
So I mean like the classic
example, even when if if we use

678
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,720
today's 1.
So with, with Capricorn, you

679
00:37:41,720 --> 00:37:44,920
know, they've had these put
options at four and a half,

680
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,520
$1000 an ounce.
So that means, you know, if I'm,

681
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:53,280
you know, today's gold price is
4800 bucks an ounce roughly.

682
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:58,480
I'm not going to use the put
option because of the the Spot

683
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,080
gold price is great.
I'll make you know, let's roll

684
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:05,200
with that.
But if suddenly gold was $4000

685
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:11,200
an ounce, well, I'd like the the
right to sell some of my gold at

686
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:16,560
4 1/2 thousand oz four and a
half, $1000 an ounce via my put

687
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:18,880
option and and exercising that
option.

688
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:23,200
So just as as a as a worked
example from from yesterday's

689
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,560
one.
So you, you dug into Bellevue as

690
00:38:26,560 --> 00:38:30,320
well and they're at that kind of
phase where they had to Chuck it

691
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:34,640
in while they got got the debt
to finance the project build.

692
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,400
What did you kind of come away
thinking from from Bellevue?

693
00:38:37,720 --> 00:38:39,680
Oh, well, they like they're
getting talk.

694
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,800
It's, it's the, the hot topic at
the moment is, is Bellevue

695
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:47,160
coming up to this half?
And like as you said, the, the

696
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:52,160
amount of, you know, 35% of
their production guidance if

697
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,800
they hit it is, is hedged
AT28O2.

698
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:59,080
So like the, yeah, there's just
a lot of a lot of chat about

699
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:03,560
going into this quarter and this
half and what's going to go on

700
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,720
beyond that.
And you know, a lot of it is

701
00:39:05,720 --> 00:39:08,200
probably a function of this, not
all of it.

702
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,960
But like the if they didn't have
this hedge book, for instance,

703
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:14,520
like they would just be in such
a being different cash position,

704
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,360
they'll be able to get out of
the whole all a bit easier.

705
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,640
But that's the position they're
in.

706
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:25,080
Like you look at their their
back weighted guidance that they

707
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,560
said for revise their guidance.
They said it's, you know, going

708
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,480
to be a strong second-half.
They've but it's even supposed

709
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,880
to be a strong back end quarter.
Like if they I think they're I

710
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:40,240
think their breakevens about low
30,000 oz this quarter and lot.

711
00:39:40,240 --> 00:39:43,360
So if it's going to be another
soft quarter, 30 odd, that means

712
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,040
I'll bring up a rough chart
here.

713
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:50,080
They need, you know, high, high
50 odd 1000 ounces in that

714
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,720
quarter four to meet their
revised guidance.

715
00:39:52,720 --> 00:39:57,320
So it's and then on the back of
that lot, what what happens from

716
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:01,120
there is like right, are they if
they only just get it or they

717
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,000
miss it, like what is the market
going to be confident that they

718
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:09,120
can then get towards this
250,000 oz growth profile at 1.6

719
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:13,360
million tonne per annum or like,
you know, is that going to be

720
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,200
possibly wound back too because
it was a bit too ambitious.

721
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,480
It's there's a lot going on, but
they're.

722
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,040
You you don't know which way
they're going to go in terms of

723
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:27,040
are they going to look to
acquire something to potentially

724
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,840
help with tons of answers and
take the pressure off that

725
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,600
single asset or people looking
at them at the moment?

726
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:38,240
Like there's there's narratives
and support for other argument.

727
00:40:38,240 --> 00:40:43,360
As I've always said, like they
I'll, I'll bring up the map of

728
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,600
where they are.
Like this is sort of limited,

729
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:50,240
probably geographical options
for them that will probably make

730
00:40:50,240 --> 00:40:51,640
sense.
Like if they're going to have a

731
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,680
swing at something to maybe feed
their mill or like there's not

732
00:40:55,680 --> 00:41:00,640
really apes in the area unless
there's bloody gold rot on a

733
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,360
frigging cosmos or something
like that.

734
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,640
But nothing, nothing near term
like like Vivian's down the road

735
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,040
like that's in gorilla now, but
they got to drill that out and

736
00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:12,400
like that's that's not something
that they could easily pick up

737
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:17,560
like if they had a big swing to
trans like, you know, further

738
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:19,960
transform the company.
Lot lot Thunder box is an

739
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:24,520
interesting one, which is 70 odd
K's way, 7080 K's way down the

740
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:25,880
road.
Like that's northern stars

741
00:41:26,240 --> 00:41:29,320
highest cost producing asset.
It's got a six million ton mill

742
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:33,760
and it's like, you know, imagine
if but that that'll be a pretty

743
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,440
big bloody transaction for
Bellevue to try and get that

744
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,120
into their portfolio, turn their
mill off and send all their dirt

745
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:42,240
down to a six million ton Miller
Thunder box.

746
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,880
But it's right it could be the
other way like but off I

747
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,960
wouldn't have met like you God,
you never say never but you

748
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:53,920
wouldn't imagine Northern star
would be looking for another

749
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:57,240
transaction in the midst of a
transaction now with the Gray

750
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,280
but it like it look it could
make sense if they come under

751
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:02,840
pressure and they picked him up
and send all that dirt Thunder

752
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:08,320
box like Agnew Agnew's closer
gold fields operation.

753
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,680
But we've seen how inactive
they've been in any Australian M

754
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:15,560
and I.
So I wouldn't imagine that

755
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:20,440
unless they want to divest it
and Bellevue picked that up, but

756
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:22,680
it could go either way, who
knows?

757
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:27,320
I yeah, I don't.
It's going to be a fascinating

758
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:29,640
couple of quarters.
Yeah, and I guess there's. 1.

759
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:33,600
The the next sort of couple of
the sort of the important ones

760
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,880
to watch and and hopefully they
can hit those revised targets.

761
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:39,480
Yeah, God, if they, they, they,
they, they need, they need

762
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,360
someone else's dirt or another
operation or something just to

763
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:46,640
take the focus off this single
asset operation that's taken a

764
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:51,320
bit of effort to get up to the
required runway that they run,

765
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,440
right, That they anticipated for
numerous.

766
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,320
I assume there's numerous
factors all coinciding to to

767
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,640
that.
So oh, it's just well, we'll,

768
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,960
we'll wait and see.
Bloody around the grounds.

769
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,200
What's going on?
Oh, I mean race yesterday, the

770
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:12,720
whole ride she's been she's
paused for we don't know how

771
00:43:12,720 --> 00:43:15,600
long.
We don't know how long.

772
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:20,480
No, I I would imagine it, it
can't be too long.

773
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:24,320
I mean, you know, you've got
you've got work safe WA there.

774
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:28,480
This is the 6th truck that is
that is flipped, which is

775
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:30,560
obviously pretty concerning and
they would have looked at every

776
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:35,120
single one, but they spoke about
hauling on on the sort of side

777
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,640
Rd. there.
They like you're not getting any

778
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,080
serious tons on that at all.
So.

779
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,960
Yeah, I think that it was just
the back trailers that flipped.

780
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,520
I I think I saw not the actual
cabin it was the trailers that

781
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,160
went.
Yeah, that's right.

782
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,120
Yeah.
Yeah, but it just like it

783
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,320
obviously looks because the
whole thing with the the volume

784
00:43:57,440 --> 00:44:01,280
is, you know, trucks that need
to be gone both ways flat out.

785
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,080
And there's the whether the the
ultimate goal.

786
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,680
I think we were talking about it
before JD about like getting to

787
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,560
that autonomous stage where you
can.

788
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,080
Everything's a lot more precise,
but that's still far away and

789
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:16,600
like these.
Yeah, it's like the and you and

790
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:20,960
you can't like put like passing
bays in and have them just go on

791
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,200
one way to keep give a bit more
room because I think you were

792
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,040
saying it takes so long to
bloody speed and back up because

793
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,680
of the payload on it.
Yeah, that just it, it just does

794
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:32,400
not work when you need to have
trucks running, you know

795
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,600
crossing every less than 5
minutes.

796
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,840
And these are big, big trucks.
They don't they don't slow down

797
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,960
and speed up quickly by any
stretch of the imagination.

798
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,080
Like you said, Maddie's super
tight Rd. as well.

799
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,920
So autonomous could be easier
for that.

800
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:51,360
But I mean, Ellison said that's
late 26.

801
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:55,360
That's if things go well.
They need, they need every

802
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:56,920
single dollar they can get in
the door now.

803
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:00,160
And I think this what's happened
yesterday just highlights how

804
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:01,960
how kind of binary the outcome
is here.

805
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,200
This whole Rd. needs to work.
Otherwise the, the company's in

806
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:09,200
in serious trouble as we've sort
of touched on in the past.

807
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:13,320
And I don't think things like
autonomous vehicles are going to

808
00:45:13,640 --> 00:45:17,640
bridge that gap in the in the
meantime, you know, the, the

809
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,920
road needs to work first and
then maybe they can do

810
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,760
autonomous vehicles down the
road, you know, in 27.

811
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,120
But whether the road works or
not is something we're going to

812
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,840
find out much before that.
No, it's, it's getting so much.

813
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,320
I think you got the the big
funds.

814
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,320
Yeah, there's a lot of articles
about the, you know, the long

815
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:40,200
opportunity.
I think it was Angus Aiken was

816
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:42,360
in there.
So like in the papers and

817
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:44,560
everything.
So they're like there's coming

818
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,600
from both sides as it's a
leverage play at the moment, to

819
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,400
be honest.
Like it's actually rebounded to

820
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,800
where it was before, before this
news.

821
00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:55,360
But there's obviously a lot of
big wigs that aren't betting

822
00:45:55,360 --> 00:46:00,720
against them either during these
these times, the depressed times

823
00:46:00,720 --> 00:46:02,720
of the share price.
So it's up.

824
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:06,400
So that's maybe one to follow.
The If the road works and iron

825
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,080
ore ticks up, this thing will
fly.

826
00:46:09,240 --> 00:46:12,200
And yeah, I don't think we need
to outline what the downside

827
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,600
case is again.
Yeah, very much still.

828
00:46:14,800 --> 00:46:16,680
A Ding Ding on that one this
way.

829
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,440
Oh God, you Josie tight buddy.
Catalysts.

830
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,920
They've getting rid of Henty.
Yeah.

831
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,960
It looks like.
Kaiser, Kaiser Rook.

832
00:46:25,960 --> 00:46:30,560
Yeah, they got they got the what
is it the I-1 mine?

833
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,040
Yeah, I one mine in Victoria one
of.

834
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,880
The I was in Melbourne, yeah.
Yeah, all, all old school deep

835
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:39,760
as anything air leg and show.
So that's that's a big, big

836
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,800
change for Kaiser, obviously.
But I like first first thing

837
00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:46,040
rating it.
I think it's, I think what is

838
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:47,960
it?
15 Miller shares, 15 Miller Cash

839
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:51,000
roundabouts.
Yeah, 30 bucks for for Catalyst

840
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:52,920
and I think Kaiser were doing a
15.

841
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,560
No, sorry, a $25 million raise.
Yeah.

842
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:59,840
And I've commented on it before
like whether just like Henty

843
00:46:59,840 --> 00:47:02,600
wasn't like Platonics there,
that's their flagship, that's

844
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,120
where all the focus is.
But having that smaller

845
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,520
operation, yes, it probably
producing some bit of cash flow.

846
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,480
But just having the the
management and time required to

847
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:15,160
go run that operation in a
separate state and put focus on

848
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:18,520
that when you can potentially
now not have to worry about it

849
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,920
at all.
All the focus is on Platonic.

850
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:25,480
You would think like you got
less, less boots on ground that

851
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:28,160
you're paying for, like you
probably optimise the cost of

852
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,120
the business a bit better.
You're not flying over there to

853
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,480
bloody look at it and where you
could be spending time to figure

854
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:35,800
out how do we get the most
answers and lower the cost at

855
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:37,680
Platonic so.
Great decision.

856
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,280
Hey, yeah, great.
Decision, I think that's that's

857
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:44,640
the whole management time and
focus thing is, is it's not

858
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,160
something that you can sort of
easily quantify, but I think

859
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:50,960
it's so underrated in, you know,
deals like this, right?

860
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:52,360
MMM.
I don't think.

861
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,840
I think it's probably probably
had the decision a while ago.

862
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,720
It's just finding who was gonna
buy it.

863
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,080
Yeah, yeah, 30 bucks is a good
result, I thought.

864
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,320
Yeah mate gold price, how good
is it?

865
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,320
What else?
Oh Jesus, there's bloody gossip

866
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:08,400
going around like mate, what
have you got after BMO?

867
00:48:09,160 --> 00:48:13,680
They reckon BMO lot the talk of
like the bullishness about

868
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:18,600
potential M and I was very hot
and over there.

869
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:23,160
I thought around all the bomos
invite only waiting for mine.

870
00:48:23,720 --> 00:48:27,200
Gold M and A yeah, Gold M&A, to
be clear.

871
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:30,320
Gold and copper, yeah, bloody
more in there.

872
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,440
So.
And there was Agnica Eagle

873
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,560
people spotted in Kalgoorlie
last week.

874
00:48:35,760 --> 00:48:39,760
And there's a, there's a bloody
word on the decline that, you

875
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:46,680
know, potentially there's a big
bank on behalf of Agnico looking

876
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,680
at Northern Star like things
like that.

877
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,080
Well, I'm sure they've had a
bloody look before.

878
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:54,960
So I like Agnic.
Yeah, be there was, we've always

879
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,240
talked about Agnico.
Are they going to do a big deal

880
00:48:57,240 --> 00:49:01,920
over here and get a, get a
foothold in Australia outside of

881
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:05,320
what they've got at Fosterville,
which has had a tie die already.

882
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:10,320
So right.
I reckon with the whole the grey

883
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:14,960
Northern Star and Gold Rd. the
sort of the passenger on that,

884
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:19,600
it just makes Gold Rd. look
interesting in terms of if

885
00:49:19,600 --> 00:49:25,520
someone could interrupt that
deal by taking Gold Road and if

886
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,800
they wanted exposure to Northern
Star, that gives them a 4% on

887
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,080
the end of it after that merger
goes through.

888
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:35,160
So and then but then you hear
bloody potentially Gold Road and

889
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,720
Regis might be timing up to put
a bid in for Ravenswood as AJV.

890
00:49:39,720 --> 00:49:42,040
That was another one bloody
going around.

891
00:49:42,320 --> 00:49:46,760
Oh mate, go Perth so.
Well, just just on the Agnico

892
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:49,480
one mate, really interesting to
look at the performance of

893
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:53,280
Agnico versus the other massive,
massive gold miners.

894
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,640
So Newmont and Barrick Agnico
have way outperformed because

895
00:49:56,640 --> 00:50:00,040
they've delivered the cash flow.
So they've they've more than

896
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:04,440
doubled since beginning 24 and
you know Barrick and Newmont are

897
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:08,200
nowhere near that kind of level.
So that's puts them in a very

898
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:13,280
strong position as in terms of
market cap, second biggest going

899
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:15,120
now.
God, Can you imagine if that if

900
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:18,000
that happened, the shit the the
bankers would be licking their

901
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,280
lips this the assets that were
coming out the arse end of that

902
00:50:21,680 --> 00:50:26,200
in Australia, Because I'm not
sure what Agni goes.

903
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:31,120
If they just look at like, you
know, the big 2027 million tonne

904
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:35,440
operation at the Super pit and
then you know, I pretend I don't

905
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:39,120
know how they look at Hemi like
the big large scale long life

906
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,960
operations and the other stuff
that's a bit fickly and needs a

907
00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:45,760
bit bit more capital put into it
to keep it going.

908
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:48,960
Like whether all that'll come
out the arse end, If yeah, who

909
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,480
knows, who knows, I don't.
You put it best mate.

910
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:52,840
The bankers will be licking
aliens.

911
00:50:53,240 --> 00:50:57,880
Ah God yes, how do I don't?
Know what the American version

912
00:50:57,880 --> 00:51:01,080
of 6011 is, but I'm sure they're
having a great time.

913
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:02,200
What would it be?
Yeah.

914
00:51:02,240 --> 00:51:04,440
What is the Cotteslaw equivalent
in America?

915
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:06,680
Probably the Hamptons.
The Hamptons?

916
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:09,120
About about 9210.
The Hamptons.

917
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,040
Oh, very good.
You heard any Goths?

918
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,880
Oh, not, not to your level mate.
And I think Agnico is Canadian

919
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:23,200
by the way.
So if that changes that, I'm not

920
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:26,800
sure where the the 6011 is in
Toronto, but I'm sure the team

921
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,440
is from there.
Oh no, no, the 60 bankers 6011

922
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,760
like where the the deal with the
deal makers.

923
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,080
Geez, if you're a Canadian
banker, you'd be you'd be trying

924
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,960
to get your sharp overs in
before the the New York bankers

925
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,280
do, wouldn't?
You Oh, come on, RBC, pull your

926
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:42,400
finger out.
Yeah.

927
00:51:44,240 --> 00:51:47,960
Shout out Benny Nelson.
Bloody right.

928
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:50,160
OK, thanks.
All the bloody partners.

929
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,400
God, we've got bloody deals
flying everywhere.

930
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:55,800
Underground operators 100 bucks
off blinking the shanags, the G

931
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,320
RX conference bloody 190 bucks
off that.

932
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,880
Like get your tickets to gather
round in Adelaide Just going

933
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:07,280
just going do business
development and you probably see

934
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,560
some of these mobs, some of
those as well.

935
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:12,680
Mineral mining services, ground
at CMB ground sport CR

936
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:17,080
insurance, Cadrel WA water
balls, sweet Quattro project

937
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,320
engineer and they're definitely
at underground operators.

938
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:23,280
So sweet cross boundary energy.
What are you who to?

939
00:52:23,720 --> 00:52:24,520
Wrote Peter.
Wrote Guys.

940
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:27,600
Information contained in this
episode of Money of Mine is of

941
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:29,640
general nature only and does not
take into account the

942
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:33,240
objectives, financial situation
or needs of any particular

943
00:52:33,240 --> 00:52:35,320
person.
Before making any investment

944
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:38,360
decision, you should consult
with your financial advisor and

945
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,520
consider how appropriate the
advice is to your objectives,

946
00:52:41,720 --> 00:52:43,680
financial situation and needs.