Contrarian Bets: Brian Laks on Lithium, Coal & Uranium

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The hardest thing about being
the contrarian is knowing and

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wanting to allow the market to
catch up, to go up on the

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contrarian for contrarian sake,
right?

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How do you stay long enough at
the party, especially when more

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and more of the return comes
less from just that valuation

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normalization and more from how
many people are going to jump

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into the pool?
How high is it going to get?

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How frothy is it going to get?
All right, money miners.

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We have a returning guest, Brian
Lacks of Old West management,

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who when you last came on, we we
dived into uranium, tin, a whole

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bunch of niche kind of metals.
You of course were very early

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and successful on on the uranium
trade, Brian, and you're a self

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professed contrarian.
So I think that's the perfect

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spot to to start the
conversation.

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What are you seeing out there
that's really presenting the

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most amount of value to you at
the moment?

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Yeah, well, first of all, thank
you guys for having me.

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And like we were joking before
we started here, I think we

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finally are end up in an
environment where a lot of these

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things are working.
And so to to switch over to some

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of the things that are on the
contrarian side.

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I'm I'm happy to do that as
well.

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But it's, you know, it's, it's,
it's quite a different

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environment than it was a few
years ago where any commodity

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that you touch was kind of
contrarian because everything

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was, was out of favor,
especially 2022 and the 2023 is,

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you know, they started raising
rates, trying to shut down.

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I think here in, in 2025, we
have seen a lot of things start

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working, especially gold and
some of the other metals.

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But I think there are still a
few areas that are out of favour

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where we're really trying to get
up the learning curve and, you

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know, maybe start to dip a toe
in.

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I guess .2 off the top of my
head would be maybe coal and

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lithium which both had you know
huge runs last few years

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obviously gave a lot of that
back, you know the last year or

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so especially on the lithium
side, you know you never like to

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to call bottom on any things,
but it does look like the long

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term fundamentals are setting up
pretty nicely and still working

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through some short term
headwinds.

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I'm so excited you've mentioned
them because I, I jotted them

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down as commodities that I
haven't heard you speak about in

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the past.
So I'm curious to, to start

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with, have you actually
initiated some positions in, in

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some of the the cold players of
the lithium players are just

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doing your homework and and
getting a feel for the space to

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start with?
You know, a little bit of both

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dipping our toe in a little bit
kind of getting up to speed on

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on the whole environment, all
the different players, but you

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know, similar and what I'm sure
we'll talk about whether

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commodities when we look at all
of these different areas we're

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looking for, OK, is there going
to be a supply demand mismatch

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somewhere either now or in the
future?

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And then who were going to be
the companies that are able to

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supply into that any with all
these commodities, who's got

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scale and who's got great?
I mean, where are the large low

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cost sources of supply?
Because in the long run that's

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really what's going to matter.
And if we can buy into those

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types of companies when there's
a short term or you know, multi

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quarter kind of downturn, I
think that's where we get the

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best return.
And we saw it in uranium 567

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years ago when all these things
were we're trading for nothing.

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And you know, that's when we're
usually doing the work building

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positions.
And then, you know, Fast forward

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five years, we're harvesting and
you know, I mean we still

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maintain a lot of the things at
work, but really looking to to

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rotate into some of these other
areas that, you know, might

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reset the clock a little bit and
give us a nice forward, you

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know, 2-3 years.
If you if you take that kind of

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yeah lens, so you you look for
where the large, large low cost

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supply might come from take take
lithium for example, you know,

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the lowest cost producers that
are Western names.

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You've got, you know, Albemarle
who's got the worst balance

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sheet in the sector and then SQM
where, you know, you kind of

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need a resolution of, of events
with the Chilean government to,

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to, to see a, a, maybe a, a
pathway where an, a large

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investment can be comfortable in
some respects.

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So do you, do you put a line
through them for those reasons

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or do you actually think they're
interesting situations for those

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reasons?
You know, I mean, it really

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depends on, you know, how, what
sort of components of return

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you're looking for.
I think when money starts

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flowing back into the space that
naturally gravitates to some of

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the bigger, more liquid names.
I mean, we saw that in uranium

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looking like a chemical where it
didn't really see a pull back

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off the 2021 highs.
It it just kind of kept dropping

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along where some of the more
junior projects, you know, did

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retrace and, and and then took a
second, second shot higher with

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lithium, I think we're looking
at it kind of the same way.

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Are there big development
projects, you know, who's got

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the big sources as a, but it
might not necessarily have to be

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a producer today, you know, and
so I think the way we look at it

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is, well, we're not really
certain when the next cycle

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takes off, but we don't
necessarily need to have someone

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in production today because, you
know, and it kind of go down

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the, the, the producer developer
curve.

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But where do we want to position
ourself, especially if we're not

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kind of jumping into the sector
with both feet right away?

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And so I, I think we do have the
luxury of time, You know, I

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don't know if we're, if we're
near bottom past of autumn,

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whatever it is.
And I've heard some of your,

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your recent guests find on that.
But I think this is a great time

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for someone who has a longer
term perspective, you know, a

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few years where they can wait to
really say, OK, who are the

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largest low cost sources of
supply, whether in production

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today or in development and what
are they trading for?

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What's baked in?
And and you know, if we have a

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different view of what the
pricing environment looks like a

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few years from now, who's going
to benefit the most given where

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they're, they're being valued
today?

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So you, you really speak to this
kind of top down approach,

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Brian, by that nature, do you,
do you always tend to play the

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portfolio approach when you when
you come into the commodity and

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pick a a handful of names like
obviously some commodities

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that's harder.
We spoke about Tim previously

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where there's a very small
number of companies you can play

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it in, but by and large, do you
prefer that portfolio approach

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to it?
You know, I, I think that kind

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of goes with how far you are at
the learning curve.

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With uranium, it was different
because the sector was so washed

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out that you really could just
pick any of them.

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I mean the whole, all of them
were $50 million market cap.

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There are a few larger ones, but
for the most part everything was

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so distressed.
I mean, this was when uranium

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was 20 or 30 bucks a pound,
right?

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And so you didn't really need
these heroic assumptions.

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You said, hey, if you can get
the 50 or 60, a lot of these

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things are trading very cheaply
and we didn't necessarily know

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which ones would perform the
best.

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I mean, I think there's a bit of
a path dependency there.

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So we did build a build a
basket.

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You know, at the time there,
there weren't a lot of there was

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one ETF and it had some
construction issues with it.

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Today it's a lot different, at
least for uranium where, you

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know, there's a half a dozen
ETFs and, you know, meet maybe

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50 or 60 companies.
Now I can't keep track of all of

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them, but for something like a
lithium or a coal, I wouldn't

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call it building a basket, but
you know, maybe, you know, maybe

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one or two stocks or three.
I guess.

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I don't know if you want to call
that a basket, but you know,

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who's a, who's a big producer
that's, that's down and out.

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Where is what are a couple big
development projects that, you

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know, might look terrible at
today's price, But if you get a

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normalization, wow, these things
actually look good.

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And they're, you know, I, I
think we like projects that turn

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into actual minds of production.
I, I know people can probably

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make more with some torquey type
of, you know, way out of the

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money.
I mean, we saw that with

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uranium.
Hey, those talks did well too.

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But I think for just the way we
operate, because we're a little

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bit larger now.
And so we we need to be able to

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move kind of chunkier pieces of
capital in it.

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And out of these things, I think
you really want something that

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gives you more than one way to
win, not just, hey, we're going

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to get a levered play to the
commodity reflation, but this

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thing might actually be a line
in, in various assumptions,

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various scenarios.
It actually looks pretty

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compelling based on where it's
trading today and what we think

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the environment might be, you
know, a couple years from now.

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How do you how do you do that
with coal?

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It's not too many new coal mines
being permitted.

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You know, I always feel like a
tourist when, you know, I listen

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to the coal guy talking.
It's just, you know, it, it's

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hard.
I think there's a handful of

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names you think that are
considered high quality.

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You know, I think really it's
just it's, it's a very similar

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type of analysis, which is, you
know, you have this big run a

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few years ago and then it all
kind of came back down.

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You had a lot of things weighing
on their end markets, China and

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steel particular.
Does that mean it's it's over or

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does that mean, you know, we
need to chew through out of this

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current environment before we
can see demand pick up, you

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know, whatever it is in a, in a
year or two into the future?

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So you look at, I mean, it's,
it's very similar.

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Who are the, who are the low
cost producers?

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Who are the large producers?
You know, where do you want to

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place your bets, whether it's
thermal or meth.

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You know, I'm, I'm no coal
expert by any means.

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And so I'm, I'm sure you'll get
a better answer talking to

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different people.
But you know, you asked where

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are the contrarian areas where I
see current sentiment out of

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favor, but I can make a case
that the long term actually

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looks better.
I think those are are two great

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examples and and partly because
a lot of the stocks are down 60%

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off their highs of a couple
years ago.

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So if we reflect on the the
uranium trade, you've mentioned

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there a few times, Brian, this
is like the best example of your

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guys strategy and how it can
play out.

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Where do you think we are in in
terms of it fully playing out

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right now?
Well, I think, you know, it's,

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it's definitely a different
environment.

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What a difference five years
makes, right?

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I mean, a lot of these things
are up fivefold, tenfold, just

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sort of crazy amounts of
enthusiasm froth.

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I don't, I don't think it's the
contrarian trade that it used to

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be.
Maybe doesn't have the same

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level of asymmetry unless you
believe in some, you know,

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nuclear renaissance or we're
going to start building hundreds

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of reactors around the world.
You know, when we first got into

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it, we did a lot of these types
of podcasts, you know, 5-6,

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seven years ago as we were
building positions there, we

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didn't, we weren't baking in the
idea of a nuclear renaissance.

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It was just at the current, you
know, slate of reactors, the,

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the bills that were on the
table, there's just not enough

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uranium and the price was too
low for more supply to come

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online.
And so it was a simple economic,

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hey, the price has to go up.
You know, the time we were like

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50 would be great, right?
And 60, I, I think that was a

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lot of these things looked
really good, You know, So today,

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you know, with where the
valuations are, I think 1, you

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have to be a lot more selective.
And two, you know, you may have

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that same asymmetry if you do
believe in just a huge nuclear

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renaissance, which, or a lot of
flows of money into the sector

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and you get this kind of
valuation expansion, which we,

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you may have as well, because,
you know, now all the tech

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communities getting, getting
involved in there and you see

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people saying, Oh my God, you
know, we're going to have a

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reactor on every corner.
If that's the case, yeah, you

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can probably make a picture for
that much more upside.

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But you know, we've it was a big
part of our portfolio five years

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00:11:07,680 --> 00:11:09,080
ago when everything was washed
out.

221
00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,080
We still own a lot of it, but I
think it's more more

222
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,160
concentrated kind of the higher
quality names.

223
00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:17,960
And we're not necessarily baking
in, you know, all the extreme

224
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:19,360
bulk case even though it might
happen, right?

225
00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,160
Yeah, you get the $200 and all
these people are crazy now about

226
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,240
what they think is going to
happen in the space I think we

227
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,240
own, we think are good high
quality projects.

228
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,200
And you know, it's gonna sound
like a broken record here.

229
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:33,040
But who's got the big low cost
sources of supply that can come

230
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,280
on, you know, now and into the,
you know, next 5-10 years.

231
00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,360
Think those guys should do well
because I think yeah, the price

232
00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:43,280
has gone from 20 to wherever it
is now 7080 LB.

233
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:45,680
We think it probably still has
to go higher.

234
00:11:45,680 --> 00:11:47,880
I think you're going to start to
see the long term price start

235
00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,800
marching up and whoever can
really sell into that is, is

236
00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,600
going to do well, but you do
have to be a little bit more

237
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:55,240
selective.
I mean, it's pretty wild to see

238
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,040
some of these companies that
had, you know, 100,000,200

239
00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,320
million market cap five years
ago now having, you know, 5

240
00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,120
billion.
You know, it's just a it's, it's

241
00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:04,720
all it's, it's like the Wild
West out there.

242
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,240
I, I think, you know, there's a
lot of these nuclear adjacent

243
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,840
tech type names that are seeing
these crazy valuations.

244
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,840
And so, you know, we're, we're,
we kind of watch it and say, oh,

245
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:16,120
you know, it's like seeing like
one of your kids grow up, right?

246
00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,000
It's a whole different
environment.

247
00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,320
But I think there's still,
there's still a long way to go

248
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:22,880
for the whole uranium nuclear
thing.

249
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,160
We still think it's a great way
to generate electricity.

250
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:26,960
We're going to need a lot of
electricity.

251
00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,880
It's going to be part of the
part of the portfolio approach

252
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,840
of generating that.
The real question is what sort

253
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:38,400
of environment is being baked
into these valuations and do we

254
00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,800
want to participate there or do
we think there's other parts of

255
00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:44,520
the commodity sphere where we
can get, you know, better go

256
00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,120
forward returns?
What what is your allocation to

257
00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,600
uranium and then non non uranium
commodities as a percentage?

258
00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,480
I'd have to check.
I think we at one point, you

259
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:57,080
know, it was, we had the cap, it
was like 30 percent, 35% and

260
00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,600
then that was before it started
running and you know, it was, it

261
00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,160
was basically going up faster
than we could trim it.

262
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,080
Today, I think it's much more
reasonable, maybe 10 percent,

263
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:07,840
15%.
I mean, I'd have to check.

264
00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,240
We have a few different funds
and it varies, but certainly not

265
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:14,840
as large as it used to be.
I mean, partly because, yeah, we

266
00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,920
did have a pretty large basket
of them five years ago.

267
00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,640
I think now we've kind of cut
that down to a handful of what

268
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,720
we think are are the highest
quality.

269
00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:24,320
And, you know, they're the
household names.

270
00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:26,920
You think of the large producer,
the large developer projects.

271
00:13:27,680 --> 00:13:30,360
I mean, it's a it's not, it's
not rocket science here.

272
00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:33,680
I think, yeah, maybe you could
get kind of cute and going to

273
00:13:33,680 --> 00:13:36,320
some of these more niche areas
and try to squeeze something

274
00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,840
out.
But again, we're not trying to

275
00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,440
speculate on a massive nuclear
buoy.

276
00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:47,080
I think to get real significant
upside out of a lot of these

277
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:50,040
things, you might need that,
especially given where some of

278
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,720
them are trading.
So I mean, yeah, we're we're I

279
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,480
guess pretty conservative now in
our allegation there.

280
00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:58,280
But just because we see that
same setup in a lot of other

281
00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,120
commodities that we saw five
years ago and these other, these

282
00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,800
other places are not nearly in
the same level of rewrite that

283
00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,320
we've seen, you know where some
of these stocks are up tenfold.

284
00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,680
Whenever it is like a bottom for
a, a commodity or, you know, Max

285
00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:15,240
capitulation or whatnot, there
is always a, a narrative that is

286
00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:18,160
like big and loud about why
things will get worse from where

287
00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:21,440
they are right now.
Like, how do you how do you get

288
00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:26,880
comfort, you know, entering some
of these like commodities When,

289
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,800
when, when it kind of could be
the bottom, but there's a lot of

290
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,400
noise and, and good reason to
think things will get worse from

291
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,920
where they are right now.
Well, I, I think that's the, the

292
00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,200
contrarian nature right there.
You have to be careful trying to

293
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,840
call a bottom, you know, hands
are scarred from catching

294
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:43,280
falling knives in a lot of these
things.

295
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,240
You know, uranium was a great, a
great example.

296
00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:48,720
I mean, it bottomed in 2020.
We were building positions in

297
00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:50,920
2018 and 2019, I think, and
losing money.

298
00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,160
And so it was like, you know,
you got to have a, an investor

299
00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,520
base that kind of gives you the
benefit of the doubt that you're

300
00:14:56,520 --> 00:14:58,640
doing the right work.
You have to have have done the

301
00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:00,480
work to have conviction and
where you think these things are

302
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,400
going.
And if you're correct in that

303
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,840
long term outlook, it doesn't
change.

304
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,480
Well, you should be buying more
as they're getting cheaper.

305
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,440
And I think that's what you're
seeing in some of these other

306
00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,080
areas that are washed out right
now is, yeah.

307
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,960
I mean, you might have had that
bullish view on lithium a year

308
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,120
ago.
And, you know, I think some of

309
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:17,000
the stocks have been cut in
half.

310
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:20,480
And so it's difficult to try and
call the bottom, which is why I

311
00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,720
think in these types of
scenarios, we usually leg into

312
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,480
the positions.
You know, I think we're have

313
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,720
enough humility to know we're
not going to call the bottom to

314
00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,040
the day.
So if we can kind of build a

315
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,160
positions on, you know, a few
quarters before, a few quarters

316
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,800
after, you're going to catch a
nice average price in there.

317
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,560
And if you're right about the
potential upside, it's it's not

318
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,360
really going to matter.
I mean, I think you do have to

319
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,040
have the investors that are not
going to, you know, pull their

320
00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:46,880
money if you're down after 1/4
or two quarters.

321
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,680
Yeah.
And now we have the benefit of

322
00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,000
having done it a few times where
we've shown this kind of longer

323
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,520
term thinking works.
And so we do have the investor

324
00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:58,600
base that'll give us patience.
I mean, you know, just in the

325
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,400
last year or so since we've
talked, two of our our largest

326
00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,880
positions have been acquired,
Filo and Adriatic, which I think

327
00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:06,280
we talked about on the last
show.

328
00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,960
So it's nice to kind of have a
few things in succession where,

329
00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:13,640
you know, hey, we, we made these
bets, you know, five years ago.

330
00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,320
And then a few years go by, we
harvest them, make new bets, and

331
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,000
then a few years go by, we
harvest them again.

332
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,560
And I think you can show that
repeatability there.

333
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,920
But yeah, for if you don't have
that track record, it's going to

334
00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,840
be hard, you know, a year into
the trade and you're down 2030%

335
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,840
if you you know what you're
doing, like what's going on

336
00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:32,560
here.
And so I think you do have to

337
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:37,000
have a bit of that mindset and,
you know, set your expectations

338
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,240
correctly.
This is certainly not the multi

339
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:40,720
manager.
What's going to happen next

340
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:42,200
quarter, you know, try and game
it.

341
00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:45,680
We don't do any of that stuff.
In fact, we kind of like the one

342
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,040
where people are actively
negative on because that's

343
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,280
typically means they're going
down for some reason.

344
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,800
And if we can have a view that
the the next few years looks

345
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,280
better, well, that's when we
probably start building

346
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,040
positions.
And uranium hasn't been all one

347
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,000
way since it started going in
your sort of favor.

348
00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,840
So the last year has been a bit
rough.

349
00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,359
Did you use that chance to to
top up or you just sort of hold

350
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,440
on to that core position?
Yeah.

351
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,800
No, we did.
You know, we lightened up a lot

352
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:15,839
in call it late 2021 when you
had that first, you know, real

353
00:17:15,839 --> 00:17:18,520
friends, right?
2020 at the end of 2020 is kind

354
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,720
of when the move started.
And then throughout 2021, Sprott

355
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,079
came into the market.
You know, you kind of got into

356
00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:26,640
the summer fall in Northern
hemisphere and it was, you know,

357
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,640
Wall Street Bets is on CNBC.
You got the price going to like

358
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:30,920
50.
And I think a lot of these

359
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,960
things really had that first big
impulse.

360
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,040
But we got to, you know,
whatever that was September,

361
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:40,080
October, November time frame.
And we just said, man, a lot of

362
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,080
these things are already pricing
any, you know, 70 or $80 a year

363
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:44,520
income.
And remember, we had a huge

364
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,000
waiting in it.
So it was like, well, let's dial

365
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,840
this back because these things
may have already gotten ahead of

366
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,200
themselves.
And, and sure enough, I mean,

367
00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:52,840
there was this big digestion
period that happened, you know,

368
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:56,200
kind of late 21 in the call it
23.

369
00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,240
You know, then you started to
have these things ticked back up

370
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,000
as the spot price, you know,
caught up.

371
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:04,360
And then, you know, early last
year and it got above 100 and

372
00:18:04,360 --> 00:18:07,640
there's that kind of wave of
enthusiasm and then completely

373
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,760
retrace that in the earlier this
year to where we saw sentiment

374
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,960
as bad as it was, you know, back
when we were, you know, looking

375
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,520
at it in 20/17/18, right.
And so we did take the

376
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:21,200
opportunity to top up on some of
these things because the way we

377
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:22,840
looked at it was now wait a
minute.

378
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,800
A lot of these stocks are, you
know, this was call it, you

379
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,600
know, first quarter of the year
was a pretty bad order for

380
00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,480
uranium stocks.
A lot of them were trading below

381
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,040
the levels that they set in
2021.

382
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:37,560
And here we are, you know, 3 1/2
years later and we.

383
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:42,000
So when I wait a minute, the
price is much higher and these

384
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,760
companies are three years closer
to production or wherever, you

385
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,280
know, on their timeline, and yet
they're trading below where they

386
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,120
were before.
And so we said, well, this

387
00:18:50,120 --> 00:18:53,040
doesn't make any sense anymore.
And you know, kind of like how I

388
00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:54,880
guess it's a little bit of
zigging when the market zag,

389
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,000
right?
I mean, when the things were

390
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:57,760
flying and they're talking,
they're all over TV.

391
00:18:58,000 --> 00:18:59,640
You know, we're we're we're
lighting up a bit.

392
00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:03,480
And when, you know, these die
hard uranium investors are, you

393
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,480
know, throwing in the towel,
They were like, wait a minute,

394
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:07,160
we'll take a little bit and add
to that.

395
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,960
And so I think that that's
worked for us in the the past,

396
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:13,080
you know.
And so, yeah, it's, you know,

397
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,760
now here we are again.
Look, I think, I think the

398
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,600
uranium trade still has a lot of
legs.

399
00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:23,400
It's just what sort of level of
enthusiasm do I want to

400
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,080
underwrite from here?
You know, I think we do a lot of

401
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,120
what I would call sort of
separating what our expected

402
00:19:29,120 --> 00:19:31,480
return components are going to
come from, whether it's just the

403
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,400
pure valuation or whether you
know, it's going to be money

404
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:36,680
flowing in or multiple
expansion.

405
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,800
I think when you get to some of
these frothier eras, you know, I

406
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:44,040
think more of the return is
going to come from those

407
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,760
subjective things versus, you
know, I don't want to call it

408
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,040
the easy money because it was
hard to be made, but kind of the

409
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:53,000
early money off that very bottom
kind of coming up into that

410
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,760
first, that first inflection, I
think that was captured.

411
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,960
And now it's a bit of a more
balanced risk reward from here.

412
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:01,680
Like I say, you have to be more
selective.

413
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,400
And then it's how, how big of a
renaissance do you want to do

414
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,960
you want to to expect?
I'd, I'd love to hear you

415
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,840
thinking around, around this
because yeah, the, the best risk

416
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,000
reward is to, to be set up and
waiting for that first

417
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:16,440
inflection up in, in any
commodity.

418
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,560
But often times you see that
first inflection up, you didn't

419
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,640
have the sufficient allocation
and you think, God damn it, I, I

420
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,080
knew I should have bought like a
month earlier or whatnot.

421
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:29,720
But there's often still a long a
lot of legs to go like take,

422
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,480
take that kind of PGM complex at
the at the moment.

423
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:35,480
You've seen a lot of green
shoots there.

424
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:39,280
And, and if, if, if people are,
you know, don't have an

425
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,000
allegation, think I've missed
it.

426
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,200
But but then, you know, there's
this pattern in body cycles that

427
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,960
you, you see, you see a little,
you know, some, some legs up and

428
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,280
it doesn't just like fizzle out
there.

429
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,360
You often get these boom bust
kind of dynamics.

430
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,800
Yeah.
Well, and I think that's why we,

431
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,880
we do spend so much time looking
at the ones that are out of

432
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,760
favour, because I think that's
where you can actually spend

433
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,880
time to learn the, the industry.
You can start to build

434
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,160
positions.
You might still be buying it on

435
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:10,800
the downswing.
But you know, I think, look,

436
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,640
there's a a lot of different
schools of thought there, right?

437
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,480
Some people say, I want to wait
until it shows me that it's

438
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,760
starting to work so I don't have
to take that pain.

439
00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,560
You know, we had a lot of guys
in the uranium thing, you know,

440
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,120
it was 20 bucks saying, Hey,
call me when it's, you know, 30,

441
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,080
right?
Let's all I want to see it start

442
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,840
working.
So I mean, there's different

443
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,080
ways to, to do it.
How how much paying thresholds

444
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,880
you have, are you willing to,
you know, take a get into

445
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,320
something when it looks like
maybe there's still a quarter or

446
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760
two of bad news ahead?
We are, I think there's a lot of

447
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,360
investors out there that do not
want to take any sort of draw

448
00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:45,560
down and so they avoid these
types of things.

449
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,720
But I think that's how the
mispricings get so severe as

450
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,560
people are like, oh, I don't
even want to look at this thing

451
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,720
until it starts turning.
We're happy to start.

452
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,960
Like I said, we built positions
over time and then we stay a lot

453
00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:58,960
of them over time, right?
When the when the environment

454
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,160
changes, look, we have to be
right still.

455
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,880
I mean, we have to say that,
hey, today's environment is is

456
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,920
going to look a lot different
than the future, you know,

457
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:08,800
otherwise, yeah, you're catching
the falling knife.

458
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:14,360
But I don't think we mind as
much to, you know, be a little

459
00:22:14,360 --> 00:22:17,320
bit early because if we're
right, you know, we're probably

460
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,320
buying just as much on the, on
the early side of the bottom as

461
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:21,720
we are, you know, coming out of
it.

462
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,280
How, how do you think about the,
the changing incentive pricing

463
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,520
in uranium as well, because
that's sort of increased

464
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,920
dramatically over the past five
years is these restart projects

465
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,480
have have struggled to come
online and there's been delays

466
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,440
in, in new projects.
So what's your thinking around

467
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,800
that at the moment?
Yeah, I think it just it just

468
00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,240
keeps marching higher.
I mean, you see the inflation,

469
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:48,760
you see all the on the CapEx
side, OpEx, the delays, you

470
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,080
know, where we used to think,
hey, 5060 looks pretty good.

471
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,160
Now you look at some of these
higher cost projects, they're

472
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,240
probably near to 80 or, or north
of that.

473
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,080
And, and we're kind of right
around there, right?

474
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:01,200
And so it's like, OK, well, you
can give the green light to some

475
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,240
of these projects, but then it's
just a timing issue of how long

476
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:05,600
it's going to take them to be
built.

477
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:09,080
And then we'll see if, if that's
truly what their break even is

478
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,320
when it when the production
comes on.

479
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,040
I think you saw that a lot in
copper where these guys said,

480
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,080
oh, you know, look at our deck
and you make, you know, those

481
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:20,080
great IRRS that $4.00 or 450 and
here we are at 4:50 and nobody's

482
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,840
making any money.
So it's like way, you know, and

483
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,240
so look, I always think the
biases, I mean, it's mining

484
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,280
right there, cost overruns,
timing overruns.

485
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,840
And so you have to think
whatever your idea is of that

486
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,800
break even price, by the time
you get to the production, it's

487
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:37,840
probably going to be higher than
that.

488
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,160
And so I think it just continues
to creep higher.

489
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:42,440
I don't know, I mean, 80,
there's some companies that make

490
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,800
great money at 80 here.
And so that, that, and that kind

491
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,400
of goes back to what we were
just talking about, which is who

492
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,440
are the low cost suppliers?
Sure, they're not going to have

493
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,800
that crazy snap leverage of the
guy who you know, is break even

494
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,520
today and goes infinite profit
on the next dollar.

495
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,120
But we don't need, we can sleep
better at night, not not needing

496
00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:02,480
to worry about that kind of
stuff.

497
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:04,800
I, I, I think you can have a
little bit of that in your

498
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,320
portfolio.
But if you base load your

499
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,040
portfolio with just a really
high quality names that can make

500
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,760
a buck in any environment, I
think you're going to do well

501
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,920
over the long time, especially
if you're right on the on the

502
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,440
commodity price.
And so, you know, that's really

503
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,880
how our portfolio looks today
across all the different

504
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,240
commodities were.
And it's not like, and we had,

505
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,160
we do have, you know, some of
these more niche kind of

506
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:27,440
development stage companies, but
for the most part, it's, it's,

507
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,200
it's what you would, what you
would expect.

508
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,320
And so I think more of the value
is in saying, you know, when

509
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,120
should we be in these different
areas?

510
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,440
And I that's where it kind of
goes to that kind of short term

511
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,440
contrarianism versus the long
term, you know, real strong

512
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,760
fundamentals.
And if you can layer in enough

513
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:47,200
of these types of payouts so
that they kind of overlap each

514
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,040
other, you're not just having
your entire portfolio waiting

515
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,600
three years for everything to
hit at once.

516
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,120
You get this sort of sequential
payoff structure where you can

517
00:24:54,360 --> 00:24:57,040
be harvesting in one area,
deploying in another area and it

518
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,320
and it kind of smooths out the
volatility.

519
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:01,760
And so I think, you know, we
like to have things in our

520
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,120
portfolio that are currently
working that are about to work

521
00:25:04,120 --> 00:25:06,400
that, you know, might be a few
years from working, things that

522
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:07,880
are going down that we can keep
buying.

523
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,920
And so if you have a balance of
all of that, you should kind of

524
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,880
smooth it all out and then your
long term returns actually look

525
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,160
pretty good.
Let's talk about copper then,

526
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:19,120
Ryan, because because you, you
identify as a contrarian, but I

527
00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:21,280
think you've got a consensus.
You want copper.

528
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,320
What's that?
That it's going higher, Yeah.

529
00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:29,360
You know, the hardest thing
about being a contrarian is

530
00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:33,440
knowing when to allow the market
to catch up to.

531
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,560
You don't want to be a
contrarian for contrarian sake,

532
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,040
right?
I think our, and probably that's

533
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,560
been the case, is how do you
stay long enough at the party,

534
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,160
especially the more and more of
the return comes less from just

535
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:50,080
that valuation normalization and
more from how many people are

536
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,480
going to jump into the pool.
How high is this going to get?

537
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,920
How frothy is it going to get
and look yeah you probably want

538
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,560
to have a little bit for that
but it's harder to justify a

539
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:00,960
real solid weighting and
something with more and more of

540
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,840
that return component comes from
subjective things like that.

541
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,520
And so copper, yeah, maybe it is
consensus, you know, I don't, I

542
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,120
don't know.
I mean, I, I think copper looks

543
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,160
great here.
I think it's going to continue

544
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,240
to surprise to the upside,
especially like we were just

545
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,480
talking about all these guys
that are playing, Oh yeah, our

546
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,400
project still low cost and, and
look at this.

547
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,600
And then, you know, who's making
the money here, right?

548
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:25,000
And so I, I think you're going
to need well, well, I mean, this

549
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,080
is just kind of, it goes for a
lot of these commodities, but

550
00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,640
the demand continues to grow.
Supply is, is pretty shaky for a

551
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,760
number of reasons.
And so that's just a recipe, I

552
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:36,520
think for continued higher
prices.

553
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,680
And it's great.
We love seeing these companies

554
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,080
come out and be like, oh, you
know, yeah, four 50s here, but

555
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,440
we're not really doing too well
there.

556
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,920
Maybe we need 5.
And then, you know, let alone

557
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,760
the, the, the Greenfield and,
you know, brownfield expansion

558
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,040
stuff.
I think you're going to need

559
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,440
higher copper prices.
And if anything, I think I mean

560
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:54,960
what, you know, what's the power
price up this year?

561
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,600
Nothing 1015%.
I mean, I, I think where it has

562
00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,800
to go, you know, especially if
you're looking out a few years,

563
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,280
right, three years, five years,
10 years, we're going to need a

564
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,040
lot more copper.
I don't think the current price

565
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,120
is, is enough for that.
And so I mean, look, we've,

566
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,040
we've, we've placed our best.
We might be wrong.

567
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:12,160
Yeah, I don't know, maybe we're
wrong.

568
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,600
So that's fine.
I think people agree with us as

569
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,400
at least the ones that invest
with us agree with us.

570
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,800
And so, you know, and again,
it's we're not necessarily

571
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,360
needing to call for, you know,
this.

572
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:24,680
You remember it was a year or
two ago when they had all these

573
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,480
crazy call at 40,000, you know,
ton copper and all this stuff.

574
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:29,400
That's not us.
I mean, look, that'd be great if

575
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,200
it happened, but I think it
just, it has to go, you know, it

576
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:34,760
has to go higher than we are
today.

577
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,640
You know what, what's at 4:50?
I don't know, 5-6 I think would

578
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,840
be a nice price to, to really
stimulate some, some more

579
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,640
production.
But we still like the large low

580
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,960
cost sources of supply because
they're going to do well today.

581
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,480
I mean, and, and probably in
that environment too, you know,

582
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,040
we always like these situations
where you need the marginal

583
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:56,280
projects because that means that
the guys that are good projects,

584
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,320
I mean they're going to earn
that sort of bumper margin.

585
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,840
And so if you were to look
through our copper portfolio,

586
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,960
it's yeah, it's a lot of these
large, large low cost source

587
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,280
supply.
We talked about Philo last time

588
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,520
they got acquired by Lundin.
And so we still we still like

589
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:11,880
what they're doing down in the
Picuna.

590
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,280
Yeah, I think that's a perfect
example of how we look at things

591
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,760
is that's going to be 100 year
district.

592
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,360
I mean, it's going to take a ton
of capital.

593
00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:20,320
Who knows what the what the
break evens are going to be, but

594
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:24,040
it's very large, very high grade
BH PS in there now.

595
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,800
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised
if BHP ends up, you know, owning

596
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,400
the whole thing at some point.
You know, it's the Lundins have

597
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,480
done a very good job of, you
know, consolidating that whole

598
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,040
region, putting all the pieces
in place, kind of making sure

599
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,520
all the entities have the
different.

600
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,560
I mean, it really is nice to see
what they've done down there.

601
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,240
NGX royalty as well.
Like how?

602
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,000
Cool well, so all people think
hey, is that mean that they're.

603
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:48,960
Prepping themselves for I can
say that, yeah.

604
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:53,400
Lo Salados looks great with as
future feed for Casseronis,

605
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,080
right?
And Lundin stepped up.

606
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,960
They exercised the option.
So it's like all these little

607
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,240
things in isolation, don't you
know, they don't show anything

608
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,000
but kind of an aggregate.
You can see them putting the

609
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,440
pieces together.
Yeah.

610
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,720
And then obviously the NGX
discovery is just.

611
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,160
I mean, it's kind of absurd.
Like the grades that they're

612
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,480
hitting there, I like.
You, I like your theory there as

613
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:14,360
well because, because remember
the talk about a potential

614
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,680
royalty spin out of, of Philo
kind of been the lead up and,

615
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:21,480
and presumably BHP did not have
any appetite for a royalty to be

616
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,640
part of that deal.
So if you need it, if you want

617
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,880
to create a, a royalty spin out
knowing that a, a consolidation

618
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,000
is coming, well, you got to do
it now as opposed to, to, to

619
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,560
wait for a, a bid to come.
So yeah, maybe that's.

620
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:34,240
Right.
And I think NGX is kind of in

621
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:38,360
the same place Filo was at a
year or two ago where they keep

622
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,520
putting out these barn burner
results and the market's like,

623
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,320
OK, well you know, yeah, we get
it.

624
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,360
You got a lot of high grade
stuff there.

625
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:46,960
I think people are more
concerned now, or at least the

626
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:51,040
market is with what is the
sequential path to development?

627
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,920
What are the entities involved
who swallows through, you know,

628
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,400
how, how, how are the pieces put
in place for this to actually

629
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,680
get developed?
Because it's going to be, I

630
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,080
mean, it's a whole district,
right?

631
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,160
It's going to be a massive multi
multi decade type of runway.

632
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,520
You know, our big question is,
does Lundin Mining want to keep

633
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,360
the Lundin name out there and
operate independently or you

634
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,320
know what?
BH PS made no secret of the fact

635
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:14,040
that they want to get bigger
into copper.

636
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,600
Obviously they've taken on this
little toe hold there with the

637
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,280
JV that are doing on FILO.
I mean it's a natural and you

638
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:21,520
know what's the market cap
difference?

639
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,400
I think BHP is like 140 billion
and lending is 10.

640
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,120
I mean it would be an easy tuck
in for them.

641
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:28,840
The real question is what price
would they want to get?

642
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:34,080
And you know, how did the NGX
pieces come into play before or

643
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:35,400
after?
I mean, I think you do have to

644
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,720
get all that settled before you
get the kind of big development

645
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:42,080
picture.
But you know, that's really the

646
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,000
type, the type of stuff we look
for when we invest in because we

647
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:47,400
can sit, we know this is going
to be a multi year type of path.

648
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,720
We don't need to get too cute
trading out of these things.

649
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,600
We can say, hey, we'll probably,
I mean, the lending position we

650
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:54,720
have a lot of it's from
investing in FILO that we

651
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,760
inherited from the acquisition.
And so it's like, if we can just

652
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,560
continually roll these things up
and you know, 10 years from now,

653
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,000
we own some BHP.
I mean, I think that that

654
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,800
wouldn't be the worst outcome.
But you know, for now, it's

655
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,200
like, Hey, I think we can sleep
easy at night know, and this is

656
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:15,200
a pretty high grade, I mean
world class project and it's got

657
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,120
deep pockets behind it.
I mean, that's kind of a rarity

658
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:21,480
in the in the mining sector.
How do you stomach the, the

659
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,160
Argentina risk part of that?
And I guess more broadly, how

660
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,920
are you thinking more we've
separated supply chains and and

661
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,200
a bifurcated world in in terms
of commodities?

662
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,160
Yeah.
I mean, hey, you, we're, we

663
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,040
don't, we're uncomfortable with
it.

664
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,480
I think we're uncomfortable with
a lot of things.

665
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,680
I think you have to kind of take
the good with the bad.

666
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,920
I mean, look, we own, we own
Alpha Man and 10, right.

667
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:48,040
So we definitely take
jurisdiction risk if we think

668
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,000
that the asset quality supports
it.

669
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,920
Look, you're always going to
take some sort of risk in your

670
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,640
investments, whether it's on the
jurisdiction side, whether it's

671
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,840
on the operational side.
You know, and we always make the

672
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,120
argument like, look, yeah, you
can be in a great jurisdiction

673
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,040
and have other problems here.
And do you really want a

674
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,760
marginal project just because
the jurisdiction's nice?

675
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,160
And so I think we kind of, and
when we build out these

676
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,840
portfolios, we want to have a
mix of these types of risk.

677
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,320
OK, Yeah, maybe we'll take some
elevated jurisdiction risk in

678
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,200
one area if we believe the asset
justifies it.

679
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:23,080
Or maybe we'll, you know, lower
our quality filter on a certain

680
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,720
project if we think, oh, it's
going to be a smooth path to

681
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,080
production.
And you know, there's no, none

682
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:29,800
of those other things that we
have to worry about.

683
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:33,280
I think if you kind of build a
portfolio around all this stuff,

684
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,480
you can kind of mitigate some of
those idiosyncratic ones.

685
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,160
Look, Argentina looks like it's
going in the right direction

686
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,480
here.
You know, at least with the, you

687
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,560
know, kind of late overtures
you've heard the last maybe 6-12

688
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:51,320
months, you know, this whole the
Reggie, the kind of legislative

689
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,600
framework for foreign investment
I think is going the right

690
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,160
direction.
You know, that's another reason

691
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,480
we like, you know, kind of doing
things like with the Lundeens

692
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,760
is, you know, you got pictures
of them with the president's

693
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,320
going back, you know, 40 years.
I think those types of

694
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:08,040
relationships really help.
It's probably a lot different if

695
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,520
you're some, you know, 2 bit
generator trying to poke holes

696
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:13,280
down there.
I mean, there's a, it's a much

697
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,520
longer path and you're probably
going to be more at the more at

698
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,400
the mercy of, of, of the
political rumblings than if you,

699
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,440
you know, have big half, then
you already have those sorts of

700
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,360
relationships.
Yeah, and you.

701
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,920
And you?
Mentioned the Congo and and Tin

702
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,760
and Alphamin there before, so
we've got to tuck into this one

703
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,400
because there's a a pretty
fiercely loyal fanbase out

704
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:36,800
there.
How are you thinking about the

705
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,920
tin market and the the evolution
in that market since we spoke a

706
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,240
year and a half ago?
Yeah.

707
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,280
Well, I mean it's.
You know, I mean, the tin price

708
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,600
has actually been pretty
resilient, holding around

709
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,240
35,000.
I guess it is today, you know,

710
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,760
alpha man's one where gosh,
it's, it's hard to believe that

711
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,840
it's basically the same price it
was four years ago.

712
00:33:56,840 --> 00:34:00,480
There's been a lot of volatility
for not a lot of movement there.

713
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:01,560
Some good dividends along the
way.

714
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:03,280
You do what you.
OK.

715
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:04,360
So you've got the dividends.
Yeah.

716
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:07,000
And I, I and we've kind of
played it well, you know, how

717
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,000
can I have a core position that
we've traded around?

718
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,360
We're, we're very large in it a
few years ago, kind of after

719
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,760
that first ten wash out, you
know, and so, you know, we've,

720
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,320
we've, we've done well there.
But I think our, the problem we

721
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,880
have with that one is it's
literally one of the best mining

722
00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,600
assets in the entire world.
And no one really talks about

723
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,000
the mining asset.
I mean, it's all about the, all

724
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,280
about the political situation.
You know, I, I follow the, the

725
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:33,920
chat around and I mean, like
APHD in international relations,

726
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,639
just a sort of, you know, track
along what are the latest peace

727
00:34:37,639 --> 00:34:39,600
talks and this which rebel
groups doing what?

728
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:42,280
And so, you know, it's kind of a
distraction.

729
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,159
And I wonder if that would
prevent it ever from getting

730
00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:47,840
sort of a, a valuation re rate
or are we just going to have to

731
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,000
make all of our money from the
dividends?

732
00:34:50,159 --> 00:34:52,040
And remember there were a big
shareholder there now.

733
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,760
As well, which has been one of
the big changes in the in the

734
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,360
past few months.
Yeah, so.

735
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,840
We, it was, you know, Denim,
which was a private equity

736
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:02,560
company that had been in there
for a while.

737
00:35:03,240 --> 00:35:06,280
You know, they, I mean for a
while, it's 10/10/15 years.

738
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:10,040
I mean, since the thing was kind
of built, you know, I, I think

739
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,680
that was getting long in the
tooth there.

740
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,880
And they, they want to do a
continuation vehicle.

741
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:17,000
I think that had been announced.
And you know, kind of right

742
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,840
around that time, you, you had
all the troubles start to pick

743
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:21,040
up.
I mean, this was maybe end of

744
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,760
last year.
And so maybe it went from a

745
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,560
handful of parties down to, you
know, yeah, just the just the

746
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,560
Middle Eastern, the Middle
Eastern fund.

747
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:33,200
Which is look.
They don't normally have.

748
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:38,040
A lot of public companies.
And so for us it's like, OK,

749
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,320
well, are they going to make a
run for the for the rest of this

750
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,640
company?
You know, it was pretty nice

751
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:44,520
them to, they were able to pick
up that block.

752
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,800
I think there was some concern,
hey, are they going to, you

753
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,000
know, screw the minority
shareholders or are they going

754
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:50,960
to continue the dividends?
And then, you know, we got a

755
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,560
nice answer to that about a
month or so ago when they when

756
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:57,000
they paid the interim dividend.
So it kind of goes back to what

757
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,160
I'm saying, you know, are we
ever going to get a rewrite on

758
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,040
this thing or is the political
overhand going to be just

759
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,400
language there and we're just
going to have to collect our

760
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,000
return via via dividends?
I don't know.

761
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,280
Whereas it used to be a very
large position for us a few

762
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,920
years ago when, you know, Tim
was really washed out.

763
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,000
I think it's more kind of middle
of the pack now.

764
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,480
We think it's a a great, you
know, risk reward, but there's

765
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,920
obviously some challenges to
look, like I said earlier, I

766
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,680
like when there's a lot of ways
to win.

767
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,960
If one of the ways to win is a
re rate, multiple re rate, I

768
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,200
wonder if that that way to win
has gotten a little bit more

769
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,040
challenged.
Not to saying that it can't get

770
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,600
there.
I I think especially since, you

771
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,520
know, after earlier this year,
they shut the mine down.

772
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,200
You know, there were all these
concerns and it looks like the

773
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,800
international community,
especially the US stepped in and

774
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:47,960
kind of give this implicit
security guarantee.

775
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,080
Look, that was enough to get
things back up and running, but

776
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:56,720
is that really enough to kind of
a swage investors fears and and

777
00:36:56,720 --> 00:36:58,040
let them put a higher multiple
on this?

778
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,560
I I don't know yet.
You know, the other problem is

779
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,920
it's not that liquid.
We we talked to the management

780
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,240
team pretty regularly and it's,
you know, hey, can you guys do a

781
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,320
another listing US Australia
something they don't need to

782
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,840
raise money right?
And so there's no real there's

783
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,040
no real reason for them to come
out and, you know, introduce new

784
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,440
shares to the market.
So you're kind of in this limbo

785
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:21,480
of, yeah, it doesn't really
trade that much.

786
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,560
Most of the floats locked up.
How do you get new institutions

787
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,400
in there if there's no stock for
sale?

788
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,520
I mean, really that the thing
that that that denim transaction

789
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,200
was kind of the the big
transaction that you could, that

790
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:34,600
you could talk the potentially
have there had been some

791
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,800
speculation before that that
maybe denim wouldn't exit

792
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:38,720
completely.
They would take, you know, 10 or

793
00:37:38,720 --> 00:37:41,480
20% of their stake and float
that to get your secondary

794
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:43,440
listing.
But.

795
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:48,200
You know, we'll see, I think.
At least with the latest news on

796
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,880
on the dividend, it looks like
the new owners are going to be

797
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,680
shareholder friendly, but we'll
see.

798
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,280
Again, it's whereas it was a
very large position for us a few

799
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,240
years ago.
I think it's kind of more sized

800
00:38:01,240 --> 00:38:03,920
appropriately for, you know, the
risk reward here.

801
00:38:04,240 --> 00:38:06,600
How funny that he remembers the.
Fully funded capital raises, you

802
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,320
know what we talked about even
more frequently than that with

803
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,480
Adriatic Sandvik ground support
we.

804
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:12,920
Did bring up Sandvik.
Ground support.

805
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,080
The perfect segue was always an
Adriatic segment mate because

806
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:20,000
Sandvik ground support are
supporting ground and Patriotic

807
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,200
had ground that needed support
so it was just a no brainer.

808
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,360
This is true.
Sandvik, a Swedish company,

809
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,640
mixed with DSI, the Champions
from down under here to create

810
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,800
Sandvik Ground Support, the
global champions of ground

811
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,400
support.
So if you're a underground miner

812
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,720
in any neck of the woods, you
should really get on the phone

813
00:38:36,720 --> 00:38:38,480
and give Derek her to call,
shouldn't you mate?

814
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,320
If you've got ground that needs.
Supported or ground that should

815
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:43,680
be supported or just ground in
general and you know, it needs

816
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:47,320
some support for safety. 10 bit
ground support have the answer.

817
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,080
It might come in the form of
ultimate, it might come in the

818
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,880
form of of some of the the great
chemical products that they have

819
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:54,400
out there.
It might come in the form.

820
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:56,840
Of the digital systems that
they've got in place, you can

821
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,520
just hook these things on on the
end of your sort of bolts there

822
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:01,360
and you get a great
understanding.

823
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:03,720
All these things just hook in
with your phone straight away.

824
00:39:03,720 --> 00:39:06,960
Or it could come in the form of
the latest app that they've got

825
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:09,560
to Chuck in your orders.
They are making your life as an

826
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:12,320
underground operator easier
every day.

827
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,840
I reckon they can support water.
You reckon?

828
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:17,280
I wouldn't put it past this team
mate.

829
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,560
Because we know amongst
everything else we just said

830
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,440
they're, they're at the cutting
edge of R&D when it comes to

831
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:25,160
underground mining technologies.
So I wouldn't put it past them,

832
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:26,800
mate.
Absolute no brainer go.

833
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:28,760
Stand the ground support back to
Brian.

834
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,000
I'm I'm I'm very curious Brian,
like if we rattle off a bunch of

835
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:37,560
commodities, just just give it a
A11TO1011 being like least like

836
00:39:37,720 --> 00:39:41,200
no, no, no attractiveness
whatsoever to to buy anything in

837
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,160
that space.
And 10 being like, yeah, trying

838
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,200
to trying to buy, trying to get
a full allocation into this

839
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,760
commodity.
I like this.

840
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:50,760
Let's do it.
Cobalt.

841
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,240
You know I.
I'm not, I'm not the smartest

842
00:39:56,240 --> 00:39:59,840
guy in cobalt.
I don't even know what number

843
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:01,960
I'd give it.
I mean, I know that the there's

844
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:06,120
been a lot of supply ramping up.
What was that one cobalt project

845
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:07,560
in the US that they were trying
to flow?

846
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,760
That was a disaster.
You know, I'd give it maybe a

847
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,000
two or three with the caveat
that I don't, I don't really

848
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:14,800
know, don't, don't follow too
closely.

849
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:16,800
How about?
Silver.

850
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,360
Hey, I like silver.
Maybe better than gold, you

851
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,200
know, I'd, I'll say maybe 6-7 or
higher.

852
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,600
You know, Adriatic was the other
one that that that got taken out

853
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,840
for us, which was a nice
validation because, you know,

854
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:32,600
obviously.
Nothing got.

855
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:34,600
Delayed, delayed, delayed.
You guys, you know, rightfully

856
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:38,040
joked about all the fully funded
raises they did you.

857
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,240
Know hey we were.
In that for several years and

858
00:40:40,240 --> 00:40:43,760
did well and it was nice to to
get the take out there you know

859
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:44,840
and.
That was always the joke with.

860
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,760
Them was they should change
their name to Adriatic Silver

861
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,840
because all the silver companies
have these crazy valuation

862
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:50,160
premiums that they were trading
at.

863
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:55,680
So, yeah, like I I like silver
of the preface metals the most

864
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,320
because look, my problem always
with gold has been what should

865
00:40:58,320 --> 00:40:59,920
the price be?
It's not like any other

866
00:40:59,920 --> 00:41:02,600
commodity where you can use a
cost curve and and go marginal

867
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,600
cost.
It's like, you know, a lot of

868
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,640
companies are making huge money
right here.

869
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:08,080
What should the price of gold
be?

870
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,080
I don't know, you know, probably
higher just because on the

871
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:12,800
margin all the things are moving
in its favor.

872
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:17,040
But what's to say it should be
3500 versus 3004 thousand more

873
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:18,920
or less?
I mean, I think with silver

874
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:20,880
there is more of that industrial
component to it.

875
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,520
So you can really look at at
demand and there's going to be

876
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:28,680
some real consumption there.
And you know to you see the guys

877
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:30,800
that talk about the gold silver
ratio and all that stuff.

878
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,520
I mean, if you believe in that
voodoo, you probably.

879
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,280
Probably should see silver.
Do a bit of a catch up.

880
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,280
I I think the gold bugs would
hate if the ketchup came the

881
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,880
other direction and gold came
down to it.

882
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,240
But you know, I would expect
silver to to do very well there

883
00:41:42,240 --> 00:41:44,280
and it's it's still a big a big
part of our portfolio.

884
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:48,160
Did did you top up your?
Position in in silver with the

885
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,280
Adriatic, you know, the, the
cash component of that sort of

886
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,600
pivot that into some more silver
plays out there, you know we

887
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,640
have.
Some that we've been picking

888
00:41:57,640 --> 00:41:58,560
the.
Tire, I mean the problem.

889
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,840
Is, is there aren't a lot of
silver companies, right?

890
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:02,360
They have silver in their name,
but they're mostly gold

891
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:03,960
companies.
They have some by product.

892
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,120
And so we've looked at that, you
know, who's got the most

893
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,600
exposure on a revenue basis or a
profit basis and you know, kind

894
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,360
of the sensitivity to that.
And so we have some, some

895
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,040
smaller cap plays there.
You know, I think, look, we're

896
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,760
happy to inherit the Dundee.
I mean, nothing's just a machine

897
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:19,960
or what, what a great operator
they are.

898
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,120
So we basically taken that.
And, you know, I think on the

899
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,480
margin, we're we're always on
the lookout for it.

900
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,200
But again, just, and I guess
precious metals in general, it's

901
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,240
not, it's not as contrarian as
it was.

902
00:42:31,240 --> 00:42:34,200
We've been in in gold and silver
for a long time, you know, over

903
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,640
over a decade, you know, you
couldn't really give it away

904
00:42:37,720 --> 00:42:39,480
back then.
And now it's, you know, one of

905
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:42,720
the best performers of the year
and everyone wants to to jump in

906
00:42:42,720 --> 00:42:45,000
there.
So, you know, kind of the

907
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:48,240
contrarian me gets a little
nervous about that sort of shift

908
00:42:48,240 --> 00:42:50,640
in attitudes.
But I still think these things

909
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,800
have a have a long way to go.
And yeah, if I had to pick one,

910
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,520
probably silver or gold in a
yeah, six or seven on a higher

911
00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:01,400
sink.
Sink.

912
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,120
I don't know.
I mean, look, it's it was part

913
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:09,280
of the Adriatic cases.
I have to like it but.

914
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,440
I you know I don't I.
Don't really know it that well.

915
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,560
It's not something that we've
kind of followed to in depth

916
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,200
because we've really only owned
it companies where it's kind of

917
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:20,280
a by product or we haven't
really looked to target it

918
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:21,640
directly.
And maybe now I'm done, I'm

919
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:25,000
hearing myself say all this, it
probably is worth worth a look.

920
00:43:26,080 --> 00:43:27,280
But again, I think.
It's one of those.

921
00:43:27,280 --> 00:43:31,600
Things we probably wouldn't
target directly, you know, and

922
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,440
I, I view it kind of kind of
more niche, you know, I mean.

923
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:36,760
The one that.
We're looking at this that you

924
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,600
guys probably know is niobium,
which obviously the, the, the

925
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,560
big discovery there, that was a
few years ago.

926
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,240
We, we weren't that one.
We we quite like that.

927
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:46,560
Really.
You hold some WA.

928
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,160
One.
What's that?

929
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:50,400
WA1 Ding Ding Ding.
Yeah.

930
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:51,560
Yeah.
Well, I believe I I don't.

931
00:43:51,640 --> 00:43:53,160
Know how many other niobium
companies there are?

932
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,560
But, you know, I, I feel like
we, we kind of came on our radar

933
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,480
with that big discovery a few
years ago.

934
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,920
And yeah, it's, you know,
there's a lot that one's funny

935
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,080
because obviously it kind of
fits what we're looking for,

936
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:06,840
which are these really high
quality ore bodies, You know,

937
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:10,920
they're called a tier 0.
It, it, it really is kind of a,

938
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,400
an anomaly, A geologic anomaly.
And, and the questions are not

939
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:16,440
necessarily about the quality of
the deposit.

940
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,840
It's, you know, OK, it's kind of
a weird market, right?

941
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:22,080
The Brazilians have 80 or 85% of
that one private company.

942
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,120
And, you know, how much can they
flex up?

943
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:25,920
How much can the market actually
absorb?

944
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:28,360
I mean I.
Think it looks good on a on.

945
00:44:28,720 --> 00:44:31,320
Kind of on a mine plan basis,
but you know, can they get an

946
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:32,760
off take?
I think that's probably the next

947
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:35,120
step for them to to really de
risk it.

948
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:39,040
But yeah, I mean, as far as
niche medals go, that's probably

949
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:42,680
that's probably the one that's,
you know, least, least talked

950
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,840
about, you know, some of the
other ones that cobalt look, I

951
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,160
we always say you can't kiss all
the girls, right?

952
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:49,720
I think you have to pick your
spots.

953
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,240
We have the luxury.
Of not needing to form an

954
00:44:53,240 --> 00:44:56,880
opinion on everything.
I think that's kind of a tough

955
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:58,720
concept for people to get their
head around.

956
00:44:58,720 --> 00:45:01,520
Everyone thinks, OK, I, I need
to know, you know, every single

957
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:03,160
thing.
And I got to have a, a strong

958
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:04,840
opinion.
Look, I'll, I'll be the first to

959
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:06,920
tell you I, I don't know, I
don't follow, think that

960
00:45:06,920 --> 00:45:08,440
closely.
I don't follow Cobalt that

961
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,480
closely.
And so I'm not going to pretend

962
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:11,960
that I do.
I'm just going to, you know, I

963
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:13,840
can talk to you about the stuff
that I, that I do follow.

964
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:17,640
But you know, for the most part,
look, we try to keep kind of a

965
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,600
broad overview on, on, on a lot
of different things.

966
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,280
And it's just our view in
general that, I mean, pull up

967
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,480
the periodic table, there's a
lot of those boxes on there that

968
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,360
are going to be in short supply,
you know?

969
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,720
And so we do a.
Work on a lot of different ones,

970
00:45:31,720 --> 00:45:34,400
but I think you can only own so
many stocks.

971
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,000
We don't run like 102 hundred
days in the portfolio.

972
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,800
So we try to find things where,
you know, it's got kind of ticks

973
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,720
all the boxes that we look for
and you know, we might be have

974
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:46,760
four or five different medals at
a time a bit out of our.

975
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,520
Wheelhouse.
But how are you thinking about

976
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:53,000
energy more broadly?
Well.

977
00:45:53,240 --> 00:45:58,000
You know, I, I think it's funny,
we don't own a lot of energy and

978
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:00,760
it's kind of ironic because I
actually started as a, as an

979
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:05,080
energy analyst, oil and gas a
long time ago.

980
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,160
But you know, I, I think the
difference and why we prefer

981
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:13,240
mining versus energy is just
the, the lead time to bring on

982
00:46:13,240 --> 00:46:16,640
new supply.
I think it's very difficult to

983
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:18,320
bring on supply of metals,
right?

984
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,120
It's, it's years to get
permitting to build a mine and

985
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,480
and do all that sort of thing.
I think with oil and gas, I

986
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,960
mean, you can, you can drill
wells in a in a pretty short

987
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:29,640
time, you know?
And.

988
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:33,560
So really it's more of AI think
the fact that there's a easier

989
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,440
supply response leads us to get
less enthusiastic about

990
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,800
potential price spikes.
Whereas in some of these niche

991
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:46,000
metals, you know, if there ever
is like a supply demand driven

992
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,880
increase in the price is not
going to get fixed that easily.

993
00:46:50,240 --> 00:46:52,280
And I think there is this period
of time where you're going to

994
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,000
have scarcity pricing and you
can earn those those bumper

995
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,640
profits.
That said, you know, spend too

996
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,280
much time looking at at oil and
gas wells to ignore it.

997
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:03,800
And so I think that there
probably is some opportunity

998
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,040
there.
You know what I what I kind of

999
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:09,800
like in oil and gas now, you
know, we own some Canadian

1000
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:11,840
natural, which is like an oil
sands type play.

1001
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:16,800
I like that business model of
not necessarily blown and going

1002
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,040
on this treadmill the shale guys
are on where you got to keep

1003
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:20,680
plowing money back into the
ground.

1004
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,680
You know, for the big oil stands
producers that they spent all

1005
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:26,120
that money.
Now it's, you know, kind of it's

1006
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:29,240
just let the the free cash flow
roll and you know, very minimal

1007
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,160
ongoing CapEx and a a flat
production profile.

1008
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,720
And then you get to kind of the
natural gas sticker of the

1009
00:47:34,720 --> 00:47:37,600
Canadian gas ever, you know,
gets off the floor.

1010
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:41,640
And so that's the way we kind of
look at it is anything, and I

1011
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,680
guess you could even lump copper
in there, anything where there's

1012
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:48,000
more of a of a generic, you
know, tied to the economy type

1013
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,400
of beta and you know, you're
going to get whipped around.

1014
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,760
It's it's less niche.
It's not uranium, it's not some

1015
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,360
of these things that have their
own real type fundamentals.

1016
00:47:55,720 --> 00:47:59,560
I think we want to approach
those areas like having

1017
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,440
something where it's kind of
tangential to it or you're not

1018
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,600
just OK, it's a call on the oil
price.

1019
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:07,520
We're calling a gas price, you
know, I think natural.

1020
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:09,320
Gas looks.
Interesting here it's been kind

1021
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,520
of washed out and you know,
especially given all the demand

1022
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,680
for energy, for AI electricity,
I don't think we're going to

1023
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,320
solve it all, you know, with new
plants in the short term, we're

1024
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,600
probably going to still be
burning coal, still be burning

1025
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,400
natural gas.
And of the two, you know,

1026
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:26,240
natural gas seems to be the one
that people think is cleaner.

1027
00:48:26,240 --> 00:48:29,000
So you'll probably see more gas
demand there, especially with

1028
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,600
the whole LNG thing.
I mean, we've, we've done well

1029
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,600
with some LNG adjacent type
investments.

1030
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:37,560
And so you know, I, I think
within oil and gas, we kind of

1031
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:41,960
pick our spots, but it's, it's
kind of a, it's a smaller part

1032
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:45,000
of the portfolio and much more
so than than mining just because

1033
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:46,840
of that whole supply response
thing.

1034
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:49,920
Yeah.
That that that sort of makes

1035
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:53,000
sense and.
If we we rattle off the last

1036
00:48:53,000 --> 00:48:56,480
card and kind of couple the last
basket of metals, I'm curious to

1037
00:48:56,840 --> 00:48:58,800
hear your thoughts about some of
the bulks.

1038
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:02,320
So you mentioned coal before,
but do you take any interest in

1039
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:08,320
iron ore or aluminium?
I mean not not as much I I.

1040
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,480
Think again, those are kind of
the ones that are more tied to

1041
00:49:12,240 --> 00:49:16,360
just general economic activity
levels where, you know, I don't

1042
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,960
I'm not going to have a smarter
view than than someone that

1043
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,320
stares at it all day.
And so I think it's it's harder

1044
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,920
to get an edge there.
Yeah, maybe you can kind of time

1045
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:29,080
and, and in and out a little bit
better and you think then make

1046
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,320
some money.
But I think of the knowledge

1047
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:35,880
curve is is so steep there.
And again, why do I need why do

1048
00:49:35,880 --> 00:49:39,640
I need the headache of of of
trying to understand that we

1049
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,840
look, I understand enough of it
as it fits in sort of the

1050
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:45,440
overall picture of, you know,
iron is steel, the coal, what's

1051
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:48,160
needed and all of that.
But you know, am I going to make

1052
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,880
the smartest call on on where
the bottom and iron is or where

1053
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,120
it's going to go?
Probably not.

1054
00:49:52,720 --> 00:49:55,800
I think, you know, we go a
little bit more niche than that,

1055
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,440
but at the same time not so
niche where, you know, some

1056
00:49:59,440 --> 00:50:01,520
metal that we never hear of and
there's three stocks and they

1057
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,120
they trade, you know, 10 bucks a
day.

1058
00:50:06,080 --> 00:50:08,000
Makes makes a lot of sense,
Brian, it's been.

1059
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:10,480
Been a privilege to to pick your
brain is there is there anything

1060
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:13,360
on your mind lately that you
haven't had the chance to to

1061
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:16,520
talk through so far but you kind
of just want to show I'm trying

1062
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:18,040
to think I.
Mean, I think we had all the

1063
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,960
main stuff.
You know, it's really, you know,

1064
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,320
where we're at right now is,
yeah, uranium's done.

1065
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:25,680
Well, we're still in a little
bit of it.

1066
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:29,120
I think probably copper would be
our biggest metal that we're in.

1067
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:33,240
Just because there's so many.
More ways to play it, you know,

1068
00:50:33,240 --> 00:50:35,520
I mean 10's a tough one.
I'm surprised you didn't ask

1069
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,680
about medals X because I know
that's a big on the on the 10

1070
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:40,360
side there.
You know, I need to get your

1071
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:41,880
opinion whether you think
they're ever going to get the

1072
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:43,720
get the cash back to the
shareholders.

1073
00:50:43,720 --> 00:50:46,240
But I'm getting more, I'm
getting more comfortable with.

1074
00:50:46,240 --> 00:50:48,880
That capital allocation, yeah,
Ding, Ding, Ding on, on medals

1075
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:52,200
that buy.
Back bid at $0.40 is probably

1076
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:53,920
still sitting out there.
I'd love to see them raise that

1077
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:56,200
a little bit, you know?
And now they're.

1078
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,880
Wasn't it you that went to the
Yeah, I, I did.

1079
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:02,480
I missed the one this year, but
yeah, I went the year before.

1080
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,880
I I, yeah, I it's always going
to be a funky company and it's

1081
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:09,160
not for everyone.
But the capital allocation,

1082
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,400
which which I was once pretty
scathing of.

1083
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,360
Like I'm, I'm, I'm a lot more
comfortable with it these days.

1084
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,560
And I think, I think it will go
on better over time for a

1085
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:18,920
company that's.
Not a fund, I mean they've.

1086
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:23,120
Done well, you know, buildings,
different companies, it's fine.

1087
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:25,280
I mean, I, I think the, you
know, the world's been clamoring

1088
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,560
for A10 ETF.
And so if it turns out to be

1089
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:30,320
metals X and maybe that's the
way to go and this stock's done

1090
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:33,680
pretty well this year.
I I I still don't know the like.

1091
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:35,400
Yeah.
I mean, you can interpret that

1092
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:39,080
in a few different ways, Like
one is 1 is 1 interpretation is

1093
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,280
they're just land banking,
future development projects

1094
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:43,920
which will actually prevent
their development ultimately.

1095
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:48,040
Yeah, well, and I look.
I think in.

1096
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,920
Uranium, we kind of saw some
people do that a while ago and

1097
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,520
we got laughed at for it.
And if, if, if it plays out the

1098
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:56,920
next five years, like the last
five years in uranium, we're all

1099
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:58,960
of a sudden you get a re rate on
these things and that there's,

1100
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:02,680
you know, all these 20 million,
$50 million projects becoming

1101
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,080
the money because the tin price
goes up a bunch.

1102
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:07,160
Well, they might look very smart
for doing that.

1103
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,320
The real question is.
Is is is that their real?

1104
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,440
Intention or you know what is
it?

1105
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:16,000
I think that's the problem is,
you know, with without any sort

1106
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,960
of really explicit capital
allocation framework, you're

1107
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:21,880
kind of at the mercy of just
guessing at it.

1108
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:24,640
But you know, in the meantime,
it's, you know, it's done pretty

1109
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:26,440
well.
It's pushing close to the kind

1110
00:52:26,440 --> 00:52:29,200
of the, you know, five year
highs that it hit, you know,

1111
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:32,520
several years ago.
And so I think if it only trades

1112
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:36,360
as a proxy for the 10 price in
the meantime, we'd be very

1113
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:37,760
happy.
And then, yeah, you get a little

1114
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,920
bit of a bonus if they pay you
back on that.

1115
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:42,400
But really not.
I think we hit on most of the

1116
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:44,880
things.
I mean, yeah, copper that's

1117
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,840
probably our biggest one.
And again, it's it's a lot of

1118
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:49,840
the I don't know if I'd call
them household names, but we

1119
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:53,160
like the mid tiers kind of the
ten $15 billion caps, you know,

1120
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,960
like I don't know that has a
very high quality project.

1121
00:52:56,280 --> 00:52:58,760
I think you can do well finding
these things.

1122
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,000
I mean, obviously they had their
troubles with the mine issues

1123
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,720
earlier this year.
In our experience, those have

1124
00:53:03,720 --> 00:53:07,320
been great times to to, you
know, pick off some, some shares

1125
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:10,320
of a longer term story because
whatever the short term issues

1126
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,720
are that that people are
concerned with and then, you

1127
00:53:12,720 --> 00:53:14,360
know, the rest of it.
I mean, I think we're, we're

1128
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:16,280
actually finding some
interesting ideas outside of

1129
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:20,680
mining that actually were we got
let into by doing the research

1130
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:22,080
on mining.
You start researching all these

1131
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,720
niche metals and you see the
applications that go into and

1132
00:53:24,720 --> 00:53:26,000
you Start learning about the
applications.

1133
00:53:26,000 --> 00:53:26,920
You're like, Oh, no, wait a
minute.

1134
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,240
Some of these interesting
technologies, kind of the

1135
00:53:29,240 --> 00:53:32,440
forefront of tech, whether it's
aerospace or, you know, lasers,

1136
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,000
all this kind of crazy stuff.
It's like, OK, there's some

1137
00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:37,600
interesting companies that are,
you know, almost picks and

1138
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,080
shovels that kind of going in
those applications where I, I

1139
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:42,600
would almost consider the metals
as a pick and shovel play into

1140
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:43,880
some of those applications as
well.

1141
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:46,600
And so, you know, it's a lot
going on.

1142
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:50,040
We don't do a lot of these these
podcasts because the stuff

1143
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:52,520
doesn't really change, you know,
from week to week.

1144
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:53,880
If you think about it, it's the
same story.

1145
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:55,560
You can tell them for very many
years.

1146
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:57,960
And now it just, you know, some
of the stuff starts to work.

1147
00:53:57,960 --> 00:54:00,000
I'd be like, Oh my gosh, you
know, not as dumb as a book.

1148
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:03,440
So it's like, OK, real question.
And I think that was a great

1149
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:06,000
questions about the contrarian
stuff, because that's really

1150
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:07,880
what we're doing is looking at
the stuff that, you know, the

1151
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:10,240
seeds that we planted a few
years ago that are all of a

1152
00:54:10,240 --> 00:54:12,120
sudden bearing fruit.
And now it's like, OK, if you

1153
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:14,640
want to trim, trim some of these
apples off a tree and make a

1154
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,080
pie, like what's the what's the
next area we're going to go

1155
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:18,040
into?
And I think it's some of those

1156
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:21,880
ones like a coal or a lithium
where, you know, people hate it

1157
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:24,480
right now, but you know, you can
make a picture that maybe 3-5

1158
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,200
years from now it's different, I
think.

1159
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,760
I think you summarized it well.
Perhaps when we last spoke by

1160
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,200
saying if we're not talking
about this stuff in five years

1161
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,640
time, we've kind of done our job
well, hopefully.

1162
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,800
It's because we.
Harvested that again and not and

1163
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:40,840
you're.
Completely wrong about it.

1164
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:42,080
But no, that's exactly what we
said.

1165
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:45,680
You know, look, we, I mean, we
run a few different strategies

1166
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:49,520
kind of our, our, our, you know,
more wider 1 is, is about half,

1167
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:52,880
50% in, in, in metals and
mining, which is a huge

1168
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:54,960
overweight for, you know,
anybody, right.

1169
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:58,360
And so we tell people, yeah,
look, this is where we are

1170
00:54:58,360 --> 00:54:59,680
today.
That's where we see the value.

1171
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:02,800
But yeah, five years from now,
I'd love nothing better than not

1172
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,880
own any of this stuff because it
means that the valuations, you

1173
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:08,160
know, really did what we thought
they would do and we captured

1174
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,880
all that latent value and we're
on to the next, on to the next

1175
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,000
area.
And so, you know, I, I think at

1176
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,440
least with mining, though,
because it feeds into so many

1177
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:18,200
different areas, I think there's
a long.

1178
00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:20,320
Runway ahead and so you know I
mean.

1179
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:22,440
Look, we, we said the same thing
about uranium, but then you get

1180
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,680
these, these these short time
periods where there's a frenzy

1181
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:26,400
and you get this quick valuation
re rate.

1182
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:28,960
I, I think maybe you'll see that
in some of these other areas,

1183
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:31,600
you know, and then we keep.
Kind of hopping.

1184
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:35,040
Around to where we see short
term weakness, long term

1185
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:37,160
strength.
I mean, when those run out,

1186
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,200
yeah, maybe it's something
completely different.

1187
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,440
You guys won't invite me back
anymore because I don't need

1188
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:45,080
mining stocks.
I'm sure you'll get a call up

1189
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,440
in.
In a year or so's time, Brian to

1190
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:49,840
to check in on all these, but
appreciate you making the time

1191
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,480
and and joining us and chatting
about the portfolio.

1192
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:53,440
Thanks, bro.
Thank you.

1193
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:56,760
Fantastic mate, I love.
Chatting with Brian, I love

1194
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:58,320
chatting with generalist
investors.

1195
00:55:58,320 --> 00:55:59,800
I love chatting with
contrarians.

1196
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,480
So it's always great to sort of
share the the thoughts of these

1197
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:06,240
smart people on money of mine.
And it's all possible thanks to

1198
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:09,440
our fantastic partners sand big
ground support in the show, as

1199
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:12,920
well as focus the platform by
market tech and imark.

1200
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:15,560
Get your tickets.
Hoodoo money minus hoodoo.

1201
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:18,520
Now remember.
I'm an idiot.

1202
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:21,240
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

1203
00:56:21,240 --> 00:56:23,760
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

1204
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:25,320
and you need to read out a
disclaimer.