Coal in 2026: The Energy Inflection Point (Matt Warder)

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It's interesting.
Well, somebody's going to have

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to come in and take the Anglo
assets.

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I'm not sure who is going to be
the best candidate for that.

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You know, I would have said BHPA
while ago, you know, now that

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Anglo is sort of, you know,
engaged.

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I'm not sure what that's going
to look like 1 down the road.

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For all the money miners who are
not acquainted with you yet that

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water you are you're out.
You're our go to coal man.

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You're the world's go to coal
man everything coal met thermal.

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We we just ask Matt and I've
I've noticed you throwing around

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this this this theme you're
toying with the 2026 is the the

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year of the great accumulation.
What do you mean by that?

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Well, you know, I had thought
that 2026 initially was going to

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be the year where everything
really pulled back.

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Harkening back in my days of
Woodmac, we saw kind of peak

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Chinese steel production in
2024, which pretty close to what

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happened in reality.
For a 10 year forecast, that's

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not bad.
And usually what happens is, you

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know, cycle lasts about five
years.

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This one started for real in
2021.

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So, you know, if past is
prologue, as Rick rule would

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say, that would mean that, you
know, 2026 would have been the

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year for to kind of withstand
all that.

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But instead the the the China
property debacle and just a real

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downfall and demand they're
pulled all of that forward into

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2025.
And so instead of getting a

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summer recovery, we got a big
fat nothing and prices bottomed

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out.
But since then we've had lower

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production than expected.
We just had a cyclone on the Met

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side.
We've had a cold winter.

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The things have improved on the
thermal side.

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And we've tested what I think is
really, you know, the cost floor

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for for each of those individual
sectors.

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And I might add, we've tested it
successfully.

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There have been a kind of a bare
minimum of, of, you know,

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bankruptcies, you know,
companies going into

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receivership.
Surprisingly, there's been a

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bare minimum of, of my idlings
too.

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So I, I think, you know, we can,
we can look back through the

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last year and say pretty firmly
that, you know, the coal

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industry really is on, on pretty
good footing compared to the

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before times.
Well, as as 10 year forecasts

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go, that's, that's quite the
pick Matt.

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But one thing I'm curious to
hear whether you kind of had in,

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in your bingo cards is some of
the takeover battles and kind of

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tussles we've had for some of
the major steel producers.

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So US steel played out last year
and we're in the midst of 1 here

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in Australia with with Bluescope
Steel.

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And that adds such a fascinating
geopolitical kind of lens to

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this whole flushed steel market
globally, doesn't it?

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Yeah.
And you know, my track record of

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predicting geopolitical outcomes
like that, you know, is, is far

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from successful.
So, you know, I don't always

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know how those things are going
to work out, But it made sense,

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at least from the from the US
standpoint, that we had a

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company with a much better
balance sheet come in to

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shepherd these assets going
forward.

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I haven't followed Bluescope
particularly closely just

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because, you know, for me down
under, I tend to be a consumer

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of data rather than a generator
of it.

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But I'm interested to see what
happens there for, for the US,

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that made a lot of sense.
And I was glad to see the deal

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go through with Nippon, despite
both President Biden and

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President Trump having their
misgivings about it.

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You know, my, my sense of it was
that any concern about the union

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side of it was really overblown.
You know, the, the plans were

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were in place for a long time to
build, you know, big river steel

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too.
And now we have a better balance

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sheet to do that with.
I think that's good for for the

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workforce, not bad.
But As for As for blue scope, I

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don't really know honestly.
I was going to ask you guys

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about that while we were having
this discussion because you guys

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can probably provide the type of
context that we need to sort of

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think about in order to figure
out long term positioning there.

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I think it's, I think it's like,
yeah, these these really

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ordinary businesses for, for
many reasons, but because,

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because assets in, in, you know,
strategic Western countries with

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enormous replacement value that
can, can, can provide enormous

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strategic value.
We're in the era of strategic

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value is real value and and
hence the evolving, evolving

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kind of, you know, corporate,
corporate outcomes for these

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businesses.
And we've seen the signs that

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the governments are going to
support these.

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You know, we've seen about every
smelter backed up by the

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government here as well.
So you know, you've got the

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government in your in your
corner in the West as well, a

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huge add to that.
Yeah, I've been writing about

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that more on the on the rare
earth side than than on steel in

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particular.
But just looking at the Trump

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administration's willingness to
take a a golden share in, you

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know, those US steel operations,
governments are opening up

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pocketbooks to our corner of the
market.

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And that hasn't really happened
in ever to my knowledge.

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Yeah, well, if we, if we flip
the conversation to energy

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generation, that's a huge part
of, of what you've kind of been

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speaking about with thermal coal
dynamics, AI and, and all of

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these kind of things.
And the, the rhetoric has kind

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of changed there a bit as well.
We saw just in the past week a

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very important power plant in
New South Wales extended again

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another, another two years of
life added to it.

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And this is something you've
been speaking about in in the

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States as well, you know, no
longer switching the coal power

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stations off, but maintaining
them.

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You know, I don't think we're at
the point where we're talking

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about building new coal power
plants.

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But how is that narrative
playing out right now, Matt?

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So it's playing out exactly like
that now there, there will be,

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there was 1 closure here that
has resulted in Alliance

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Resource Limited partners taking
off their Matiki mine, which had

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a 1,000,000 Tony year customer
that plants going to have, you

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know, continued shutdowns and
operations.

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So there, there are still
retirements happening, but most

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are trying to be prolonged for
as long as they can.

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I, I don't know if I've said
that on here before, but I, I

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bet we get maybe one new coal
plant built in the US over the

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next 10 years.
I would venture to guess it's

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probably in Wyoming where that
would make better sense to pair

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with hyperscalers and in a
government willing to sort of,

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you know, go go along with that.
But but yeah, to your point, I

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think everywhere else is just
keep them on for as long as you

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can until small modular reactors
get here sometime in the next

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decade.
Other than that, you're just

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building gas plants as best as
you can.

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And I think you'll see a lot of
behind the meter, you know,

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solar and and some other
installations as well.

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I mean for for hyper scalers,
it's all of the above and then

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some.
So they'll, they'll take

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whatever power they can get
almost at whatever price they

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can get it until we wind up at
the point where they're building

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just faster than power capacity
demand can can keep up with it.

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I mean, these, these
hyperscalers, they, they need

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almost infinite compute and you
know, you've got this collision

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of, of exponential compute
growth with, with what is

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clearly the ability to provide
a, a linear energy capacity at

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at best and, and an old system.
It's a, it's a strange

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confluence of circumstances that
we're contending with at a time

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when, you know, energy
constraints have never been more

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stark.
And yet, and yet like you talk

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about thermal, thermal coal,
coal markets, energy markets

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broadly have been like in a
bottoming range.

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Strange.
Yeah.

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So it's, you know, shudder to
think what energy costs will be

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like at the at the peak of this
next cycle.

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But with regard to with regard
to compute, I mean, there

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there's nothing that's going to
stop a hyperscaler from building

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out compute capacity, right?
But if the energy grid can't

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keep up with it, then all you
get basically are increasing

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prices.
And that can without additional

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capacity, whatever additional
compute you build just lays

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dormant and it doesn't get used.
So, you know, the, the energy

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constraint is the functional
capacity for, you know, the, for

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AI rate of change development
just in general.

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And that's going to be true
whether we're talking the, you

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know, the United States or
Europe or China or, you know,

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the Southeast Asia and other
places.

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That's, that's the limiting
factor everywhere.

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And it's, it's contingent upon,
you know, a country being able

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to supply and feed that beast as
much as it can.

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China is obviously better
positioned than most to be able

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to to to weather that storm, but
even they have fuel constraints

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as well.
Can can you wrap some numbers

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around it for us, Matt, just to
hammer home the the point like

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what, what has the the growth
rate of, of electricity demand

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being to date fairly flat as I
understand it and and what are

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we kind of looking at this, this
step change being?

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It's, it's relatively flat.
I mean, I think if you go back

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and look at we're, we're moving
from a completely flat

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environment as far as power
demand growth in the United

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States to, you know, maybe one
2% per year, which is still

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pretty flat, mind you.
But when you, when you take a

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look at the, for me, the, the
where, the place where you can

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actually see it play out is in
power prices.

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And power prices are incredibly
volatile.

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But if you take, you know, a, a
moving average and you look at

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it over time, well, since 2021,
since this build out really

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began, power prices had just
moved steadily up into the right

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at like a 10 or a 15° angle.
And I, I don't think there's,

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you know, there, there's
capacity to absorb a hockey

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stick in the short term.
Like we just had, you know,

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massive winter storm plow
through the US and then a follow

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up one on the back of it.
We had some freeze off, some

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natural gas, But for the most
part, it seemed like the

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utilities were, were prepared
for it to some degree, you know,

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but but the, the ability to
absorb a sustained spike over

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time, I think is eventually
would impact the hyperscalers as

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well.
So, you know, in that, in that

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sense, you know, can I quantify
it in terms of demand?

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I, I think we'll just have a,
you know, one, 2% power demand

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growth until price begins to get
in the way.

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When, when that is I, I don't
know.

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That's a function of capital
access rather than, you know,

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the energy grid here at this
point in time, right now, the

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grid is you get what you get and
you don't get upset more so than

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anything else.
One of the one of these, one of

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the realities of the build out
of the the the data centres

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required is they're also very
like aluminium intensive.

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They need a, a, a bunch of extra
aluminium and then building out

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the aluminium smelter capacity.
Well, aluminium smelters are

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incredibly energy intensive
themselves.

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So there's like, you know, an,
an extra layer of energy

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intensity required to service
the data sensors from, from new

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aluminium demand growth that
that comes out.

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And, and aluminium is an
interesting one because where,

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where there is a lot of like
capacity build out in the

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aluminium sector.
It is in Indonesia right now and

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in Indonesia incredibly topical
for the sea born thermal market

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this week as like there's
there's news out that they're

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reducing supply quote as well
like 40 to 70% on 2025 levels.

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Is that like a, is that right?
And B, like surely this has an

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enormous impact on on thermal
seaborne markets.

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Yeah, we, so my partner Joe
Aldina and I actually just did a

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podcast talking about this exact
thing.

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And one of the things we
highlighted was, and I asked

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about, I was at Woodmac at the
last time this happened, which

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was back in 2021 on a, on a
temporary visit to my old

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stomping grounds.
And the, the net result is these

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are headline numbers, the 40 to
70%.

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We're not going to decrease
production by 40 to 70%.

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It's, you know, it's a stick
that's meant to get people to

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reduce production.
So you'll start to see some

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mines come off, you'll start to
see some supply rationale, but

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it's not going to get to 40%.
It'll get to, you know, you

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00:11:57,160 --> 00:11:59,480
know, few million tons, 100
million tons or something like

224
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,560
that.
And then it'll start to, to

225
00:12:01,560 --> 00:12:03,920
taper off.
And that's, that's OK.

226
00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,560
I mean you can pull that much
out of the market that helps

227
00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:10,800
that helps the, you know, the
other suppliers in the basin

228
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:15,080
that'll help you know, Newcastle
5500 kind of get off the schneid

229
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,000
as well.
It's been, you know, languishing

230
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,360
down here much the ankle
chagrin.

231
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:23,640
Think about how how how big a
pricey ankle share would be

232
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,640
share pricey ankle would have if
we can actually get 5500 moving.

233
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:32,280
So, you know, I, I don't really
look at the at the headline

234
00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,960
numbers so much as I look at it
as just a geopolitical way to

235
00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:41,520
get supply ration to some degree
to support, you know, kind of

236
00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:44,280
broader markets.
And I think we need that.

237
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,760
I mean, we got a nice little
jump in Newcastle prices here

238
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,160
this week.
I like about a $5 jump or so up

239
00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,720
at 1:16.
But that's been the first kind

240
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:59,920
of like bullish feeling I've had
in the thermal coal world for a

241
00:12:59,920 --> 00:13:01,760
while, you know?
At the margin, this is

242
00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,360
incredibly constructive though.
Like, yeah.

243
00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,200
Can you speak to the demand
side?

244
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,440
We touched on it in the States
and North America there, but how

245
00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:15,040
is Asian demand kind of looking?
There's been so much made of

246
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:18,280
China's build out of Avs and we
kind of know where a lot of the

247
00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:20,120
power of that needs to kind of
come from.

248
00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,320
So what's the narrative there
looking like at the moment?

249
00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:26,480
Asking the wrong guy here at
this point in time that's more

250
00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:28,880
of a question for my partner.
We've kind of bifurcated into

251
00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,040
thermal and met coal markets.
I'll be sure and have him on the

252
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,400
next time.
As far as, as far as I know, you

253
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,120
know, I think that the price is
kind of spoken for itself with

254
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,000
regard to demand.
We we have, we have plenty of

255
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,360
supply to support any demand
creases that's out there here at

256
00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:48,200
the moment.
But you know, even just the JKM

257
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:55,800
price going up from, you know, I
want to say, what is this 1562

258
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,440
to 1790?
I mean, we had a, you know, 10

259
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:03,200
year 20% move up and that's
really supported, you know,

260
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,760
Newcastle prices here.
When when those sorts of things

261
00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,440
happen and you see Newcastle
that responsive that quickly

262
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:13,360
that that means that behind the
the scenes there is tighter

263
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:15,840
availability for those types of
coals that you think there are.

264
00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:19,680
So I don't think it'll take much
in terms of either incremental

265
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,800
supply rationalization or
incremental demand increases to,

266
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:25,800
to get thermal coal moving
again.

267
00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:27,680
I'm not sure we're going to see
the blow off tops like we've

268
00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,480
seen in the past.
But you know, the in the before

269
00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,240
times, what was the typically
the highs of a cycle are now the

270
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,840
lows.
And then, you know, we could

271
00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,560
probably see $200 Newcastle
again, you know within three to

272
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,920
four years assuming that, you
know, demand continues,

273
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,160
continues on at the pace that
it's that's currently on.

274
00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,240
On the yeah, the, the China side
of things, maybe even from from

275
00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,360
like a met perspective, like the
thing that I guess like really

276
00:14:55,360 --> 00:15:00,840
took the wind out of out of out
of coal in 2324 was the, the,

277
00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,960
the ability for China to, to
source a lot of its, you know,

278
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:08,320
coal, coal demand from, from
increased production from, from

279
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:12,400
Mongolia, which was yeah, cut
off and then and subsequently

280
00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,800
kind of ramped pretty hard.
What are those dynamics like

281
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,960
for, for Mongolian coal into
China now?

282
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:21,080
Is it still still ramping
strong?

283
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:26,720
Any any changes there?
As far as volumes go, I think

284
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,080
we've kind of hit the the wall
of where volumes are going to

285
00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,640
be.
I mean you can to have any

286
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,320
additional imports you'll
actually need to build out

287
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,120
transport capacity.
So as soon as you see those

288
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:44,000
capital allocations get the get
completed then then there will

289
00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,680
be an incremental uptick.
But what China's done on the

290
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:51,720
medical side is they've they've
done their, they've increased

291
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,960
domestic production.
They were, they were down in

292
00:15:55,080 --> 00:16:00,520
last year, I want to say maybe
15% on the met side for, for key

293
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,360
components, which kept their
reliance on the seaborne market.

294
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,640
But as soon as that began to go
in the other direction, that's

295
00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,440
what really coincided with the
bottom falling out of met prices

296
00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:15,440
and those sorts of things.
And now like this quarter, China

297
00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:16,880
hasn't been setting the price at
all.

298
00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,880
There's not really much urgency
for them to go into the market

299
00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:24,240
to pick up premium low Vol tons.
Kind of what they've been doing

300
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,240
is they're relying on domestic
production.

301
00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,680
They're supplementing that with,
you know, the maximum amount of

302
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,920
tons they can import from
Mongolia and Russia.

303
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,880
And then they're going out to
the market for, you know, a few

304
00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,840
million tons a month of Kohl's
with strength contributing

305
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:42,920
property.
So going to Canada for for good

306
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,360
premium mid volatile coal.
They're going to Australia for

307
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,040
mostly for premium mid Vol,
something they can get kind of

308
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,200
off spec second tier hard
cooking coal.

309
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:53,960
Like that's kind of what China's
been in the market for.

310
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,320
So the driver of this medical
run up to 200 and 52150 bucks

311
00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,760
plus in the physical market has
been India.

312
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,000
So India's really showed up in a
big way.

313
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,000
And if you look at their steel
prices, their steel prices have

314
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,520
come up commensurately with
cooking coal prices.

315
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:13,560
So the more room that their
domestic market gives them, the

316
00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,720
more resilient that that PLV
prices are going to be.

317
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:18,960
It's been good to see.
We've been talking about it for

318
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,640
a couple of years, but it's nice
to see it play out that way for

319
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,520
once.
Those those global steel cycles

320
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:29,160
really, yeah, like really,
really map out a lot of this

321
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:31,120
demand, right.
And, and, and India's a much

322
00:17:31,120 --> 00:17:35,000
earlier like, yeah, like he's,
he's at an early stage in that

323
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,920
steel cycle that China would
have experienced many, many, you

324
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,400
know, many years ago now.
Yeah.

325
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,920
I mean, they're they're kind of
taking the reins from where

326
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:44,720
China left off.
So we're going to see China

327
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,440
contract relatively slowly, you
know, turn inward for their

328
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,400
supply much like they've been.
But India can really ramp up

329
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,080
through the end of the decade.
I forget how much incremental

330
00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,400
steel capacity they have coming
online, but it's, you know, if

331
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,640
you if you pair it down to just
premium low Vol and premium mid

332
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,240
Vol and you look at what the
forward demand looks like,

333
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,360
there's not enough that's in the
pipeline in the development

334
00:18:11,360 --> 00:18:14,760
pipeline to supply it.
So more than likely what's going

335
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,040
to happen is that that demand
will trickle down into second

336
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,120
tier hard cooking coal and
you'll see a kind of a shrinking

337
00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:24,440
of the relativities between the
premium stuff and the next year

338
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,560
down.
And I think you'll see India use

339
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,480
more PCI.
So the relativities of PLV to

340
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,440
PCI are probably going to shrink
as well.

341
00:18:33,120 --> 00:18:36,160
I think Japan will probably
increase their PCI rates like

342
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,000
that's that's where I see the
pressure valve to the extent

343
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,680
that there is one being released
in the market now Semisoft

344
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,040
highball completely different
supply story.

345
00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,240
That's going to be kind of a
rough go, but I think for for a

346
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:52,720
year or two.
But once that gets resolved,

347
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,840
then then everything you know is
going to begin to move up

348
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,400
commensurately with the with the
rest of the cycle.

349
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,920
So that there's a lot of hope on
this, this Indian narrative

350
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,160
playing out and a lot of people
have a bit of kind of stock in

351
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:06,000
it.
What do you, what do you keep

352
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:11,040
your eyes on to just checking
that it's continuing to play out

353
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,800
as you've kind of forecast over
the past few years and as we

354
00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:17,720
look forward.
I put out a chart, I try to do

355
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,760
it every couple of weeks or
whatever that just looks at

356
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,960
Indian steel margins.
So I I, you know, take, you

357
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:27,000
know, POV Med coal and whatever
the current shipping rates are

358
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,560
to Indian, we just deliver it to
a fictitious plan and then run a

359
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,200
cost stack off of that and see
what their margin is.

360
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,480
When the margins have been
deeply negative or or you know,

361
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,680
are inflecting to the downside
that has for the last year or so

362
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,040
indicated that we're going to
have a rough go of the next sort

363
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,760
of few months.
And vice versa.

364
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:51,000
When steel prices allow, you
know, Indians to go into the

365
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,880
market and and pick up and
actually pick up tons at

366
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,480
reasonable prices, then the
cycle goes the other way.

367
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,840
So really that's what I'm kind
of using as an on off lever.

368
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,840
And, you know, we're writing
about it on on the

369
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:06,360
coaltrader.com,
thecoaltrader.substack.com.

370
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,240
As often as we can.
But that's like, for me, that's

371
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:13,520
the bellwether now is what, what
is the health of India's steel

372
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:17,360
industry right now?
It's OK.

373
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:19,960
You know, last year was pretty
bad.

374
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,520
We, we've, we've graduated from
bad to OK.

375
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,440
But as we see it in the, you
know, the Coca-Cola stock

376
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,200
prices, when you go from
terrible to less bad, that's

377
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:29,920
usually where you get the
highest beta, right?

378
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,040
That, that's really interesting
because if we, if we look back

379
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,960
the last 10 or 20 years and, and
I'm pretty green here, so I'm

380
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:37,880
really curious to hear what you
have to say.

381
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:42,760
The, the Chinese steel sector
has not always been the most

382
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,440
profitable.
It's, it's waxed and waned, but

383
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,520
there's been some atrocious
years of, of profitability for

384
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,520
the, for the steel makers out
of, out of China.

385
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,800
But on the whole, if we look
back over the last 2020 odd

386
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,520
years, it has grown quite
phenomenally to to the point you

387
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:58,920
made before where it's kind of
plateaued recently.

388
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:03,440
So is that different in India
for for the dynamics of how the

389
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,080
the industries come up come
about?

390
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,720
That's a good question.
I'm not quite sure how to answer

391
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:14,440
that to be fair.
But what I would say is that,

392
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:20,840
you know, when I look back on
China, we used to, you know, I

393
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,800
think when I, when I started
forecasting on my own, you know,

394
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:28,360
not, not a part of Wood McKenzie
or, or working on the equity

395
00:21:28,360 --> 00:21:32,680
side.
You know, one of the things that

396
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:37,280
I sort of looked at was I want
to say the average margin at a

397
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:40,400
Chinese mill over like 10 years
when I started doing this in

398
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:44,760
2021 was like 4 dollars, $4.00
of EBITDA.

399
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:48,960
That's before everything else.
So it was clear that China was,

400
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,720
you know, basically running
their steel mills at a cost

401
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:57,560
center to fuel domestic growth.
When I look at II kind of likes

402
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,400
to make money.
So I don't think they're going

403
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,640
to look the same as a command
economy going forward.

404
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,840
They have a much freer markets,
obviously, you know, much more

405
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:09,880
kind of geopolitically aligned
with the West.

406
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:14,120
And so I think what you'll see
in India is more typical cycle

407
00:22:14,120 --> 00:22:16,000
fits and starts.
It's not going to be an engine

408
00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,920
that goes, you know, 100 miles
an hour at a constant speed

409
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,600
when, when the steelmaker start
to hurt from profitability

410
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,360
perspective, you know, you'll,
they'll slow down.

411
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,480
They're more incentivized to, to
take those market cues than,

412
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,600
than the Chinese are, which
honestly, from an investment

413
00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,640
standpoint, I think that's a
good thing that benefits us

414
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:38,160
because then cycles do become a
little bit more predictable as

415
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,160
opposed to operating on the whim
of the next five year plan.

416
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:46,480
So I, I think that's going to be
by and large more profitable

417
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,080
for, for the investing side of
things as we go forward.

418
00:22:51,360 --> 00:22:53,960
Matt, you call Matt, you're a
cost curve guy.

419
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,320
And I, I'm just, I'm keen to
understand and appreciate how

420
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,280
cost curves have have evolved or
that what are the dynamics

421
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,600
amongst those kind of cost
curves like say, say the changes

422
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,800
in the last like 4 years?
Well, most of the changes have

423
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:14,520
occurred on the on twofold.
Well, one is on the mining side,

424
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,440
we've had a lot of Labor cost
inflation around the globe.

425
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,720
I think that's, you know, it's
maybe not exactly uniform from

426
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,800
country to country, but that has
been a theme in order to

427
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,960
incentivize, you know, men and
women to go work in these

428
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,720
industries, you have to pay them
a wage that encourages it.

429
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:38,720
And that's, that's that's been
the reality certainly in where I

430
00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,960
come from in West Virginia.
You know, there's, there's no

431
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,240
love lost between, you know, the
people in the industry over the

432
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,040
years.
So if you want to, you know,

433
00:23:48,120 --> 00:23:51,680
bring a third generation, 4th
generation coal miner to work

434
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:56,000
after he's seen, you know, his
father and his grandfather, you

435
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,400
know, and they, and they saw
that his great grandfather go

436
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,680
through these, these employment
cycles.

437
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,160
It's a, it's a much tougher sell
than it used to be.

438
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,320
You know, I think that probably
changes to some degree going

439
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,160
forward as we increase
automation within the industry.

440
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:17,000
I'm not, you know, on the on the
bleeding edge of equipment

441
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,000
development and those two
things, but I would I would

442
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:23,640
expect to see a pretty hefty
amount of automation if we have

443
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,520
this conversation in say, 10
years.

444
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:31,720
I went to a conference in
Pittsburgh early June and there

445
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,400
was a remote joy was running a
remote continuous minor

446
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,960
operator.
And it's like playing a video

447
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:38,680
game.
It's amazing.

448
00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,240
But they're, they're what they
want to do is they want to have

449
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,760
people be able to sit at the
surface and run these machines

450
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,800
underground and then you just
send in, you know, essential

451
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,400
maintenance.
When we get to that point, I'm

452
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,960
not sure what the cost curve is
going to look like that if we

453
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,360
have that kind of Labor cost
deflation, is that offset by

454
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,080
maintenance CapEx?
Is that offset by equipment

455
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,880
purchases?
Geological.

456
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:06,520
Yeah.
Yeah, I think that's to be

457
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:11,360
determined over time.
But the the other, the other

458
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,760
cost increase in general has
been the the royalty side from

459
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,200
the government side and that's
been entirely in Australia.

460
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:24,040
So if we see a reversal of that,
you know, sometime in the next

461
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,440
before the end of the decade, I
mean that will that would really

462
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,360
shift the top end of the cost
curve.

463
00:25:30,360 --> 00:25:35,000
So, you know, we wouldn't be
able to, you know, have these

464
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,200
blow off numbers, I don't think
at all.

465
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:41,600
I think he'd probably put a cap
at like 300 and 5400 bucks and

466
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,080
that would be the end of it.
So Matt's not at the forefront

467
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,080
of mining equipment
advancements.

468
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,080
Maybe we should introduce him to
Derek Hurd, because Derek Hurd

469
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:52,200
is at the forefront of mining
equipment advancements.

470
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,080
Sandvik Ground Support.
CSI.

471
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:58,920
It's, it's literally in their
DNA to bring R&D of ground

472
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,240
support to the industry via new
products every, it feels like

473
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,320
every week.
Right, 150 years they've been

474
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,080
doing this for.
It's their bread and butter

475
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,000
innovation.
They're at the bleeding edge of

476
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,720
keeping mine workers safe.
Like 150 years.

477
00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:14,480
It's crazy.
I don't even know mines have

478
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,920
been here for that long.
Even even longer mate, but as

479
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:19,880
long as you've got mines, you've
got to have them safe and that's

480
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,680
what Sandvik do.
And like like Matt said, they're

481
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,480
at the bleeding edge of ground
support, so if you've got an

482
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,280
underground mine in any
continent on the planet, they

483
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,560
can look after you mate.
Get in touch with Sandvik ground

484
00:26:31,560 --> 00:26:33,280
support.
Derek Kurd will fix you up.

485
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,000
Go Sandvik.
So help me, help me just

486
00:26:36,360 --> 00:26:39,760
appreciate how you witnessed
this like the, the enormous kind

487
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,360
of royalty regime that was
introduced in, in, in Queensland

488
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,520
to a lesser part in, in, in New
South Wales that it's, it's like

489
00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:51,320
morphed the cost curve with,
with those, with many of those

490
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,880
assets like lower half or upper
half.

491
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,360
And now I'm guessing it's just
it's lifted the kind of the

492
00:26:56,360 --> 00:27:00,960
floor to the benefit of of, you
know, X Australia Seabourn

493
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,440
producers who have been able to
capture greater margin at A at a

494
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:10,520
higher floor price.
So if we think about what the

495
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,560
marginal ton is, what the cost
of that mine is in the before

496
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:18,040
times when we were building out
the, the cost curve at Woodmac

497
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,760
for Matt, I would have said that
probably was somewhere in the

498
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,840
one 20s, which meant that you
would have had it, you know, for

499
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,840
any sort of two or three month
period.

500
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,840
You can, you know, spot price
can go down 25% below that.

501
00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,000
People shut down operations and
it and it comes back up.

502
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,360
And I want to say that, you
know, in the last really

503
00:27:40,360 --> 00:27:44,120
terrible bear cycle, Metco
bottomed out in the low 90s.

504
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:49,680
So that kind of tracks that
number now I'm pretty sure is

505
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:55,960
about 16165, which used to be
the long term price assumption

506
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:02,320
for for PLV.
So and you know, it, it also

507
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,800
makes the cost curve more
volatile from year to year.

508
00:28:05,120 --> 00:28:09,680
So when you have these, these
blow off tops, Australia moves

509
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:14,240
to the, to the top of the curve
and the US stays steady.

510
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:18,920
So you have this like change
that that never used to have

511
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,680
never used to be in existence at
all.

512
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:27,760
And if the, if the US is setting
the cost floor for the rest of

513
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,160
the world, well, I can guarantee
that's going to be pretty high.

514
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,720
So there's, there's a lot of
tolerance for volatility when we

515
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,680
get up into those into the upper
stratosphere.

516
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,480
So, you know, All in all, we
were asked the question on the

517
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,800
podcast today.
Like, where do you think you

518
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,520
know what we get five years down
the road?

519
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,840
What's what'll, what'll have
been the average price?

520
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:58,000
And I remember I was I was
having dinner with Andy Edson

521
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,080
about two or three years ago,
and he asked me that question.

522
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,280
I said probably about 265.
You know, if you think of the

523
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:11,040
bottom AS160165 bucks and you
think of the, you know, the, the

524
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,280
peak of the market probably
without the, you know, a Russia,

525
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,960
Ukraine layered over top of it
is probably, you know, three,

526
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,280
5400.
If you kind of just go to the

527
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:24,680
mean, you're going to wind up at
about 252-6265.

528
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:29,760
And that's plenty for, you know,
a higher cost miner to make

529
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:33,600
money, make a 20% profit on top
of maintenance CapEx, whatever

530
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,880
logistics they have.
That to me is kind of where

531
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:41,640
prices have to be for POV to
just maintain the status quo.

532
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:45,000
If you can't do that and more
supply comes out, then that

533
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:49,200
number winds up being higher
until you know, till robots take

534
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,440
over the world.
Well, if robots take over the

535
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:58,880
world, I actually, there's this
AI paradox now, I think.

536
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:04,200
And it's, and it's the, the,
the, the reality is that

537
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,440
technological advancements now
require more fossil fuel as

538
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,280
opposed to becoming energy
dependent or relying on, on new

539
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:11,720
energy.
We actually need more fossil

540
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,920
fuels as a result of the, the
latest technological

541
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:15,800
advancement.
So if robots take over the

542
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,320
world, I think we're still going
to need a ton more coal.

543
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,760
Yeah, if they're, if they even
plan to take over the world,

544
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:22,800
we're going to need a ton more
steel.

545
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,360
I'm not sure what I mean.
We're going to build those

546
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,160
robots out of aluminum that
that's another quandary we get

547
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,800
into.
So, yeah, there's, there's no,

548
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,200
you know, it's hard for me to
not to look at the next decade

549
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,360
and not think that, you know,
all the companies that that we

550
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,160
love and have been close to for
the last, you know, decade or so

551
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,000
are going to fare really well.
This is going to be a pretty,

552
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,040
pretty important transition, not
just for the industry, but I

553
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,120
think for, you know, for
humankind as well.

554
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,040
The last time we had you on the
show, we were we were speaking

555
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:57,360
about M&A and consolidation in
this, in this space with the

556
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,800
Peabody deal that ultimately
fell through.

557
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,560
So if you do think ahead 10
years, is there, is there more,

558
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,960
is there less companies?
What does it kind of look like?

559
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:08,160
And in the near term, are there
deals playing in the back of

560
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,320
your mind?
It's interesting.

561
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,240
Well, somebody's going to have
to come in and take the Anglo

562
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:17,280
assets.
I'm not sure who is going to be

563
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,360
the best candidate for that.
You know, I would have said BHP

564
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:26,720
a while ago, but you know, now
that Anglo is sort of, you know,

565
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,640
engaged, I'm not sure what
that's going to look like on

566
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:35,360
down the road.
You know, I think in the US

567
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,280
we'll have some consolidation
over time.

568
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:43,200
I think, you know, companies I
think Core probably wants to

569
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,400
acquire.
I would venture to guess over

570
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:52,800
time, I would, I wouldn't be
surprised if AMR or Warrior both

571
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,880
were interested in acquiring.
But I think at the at the crux

572
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,480
of the question is everybody
needs more low Vol.

573
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,760
And that's what we're going to
need to, you know, see people

574
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:09,720
invest in, you know, whether
that's low Vol PCI, second tier,

575
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:16,160
hard cooking, coal premium mid
Vol, you know, PCI like all we

576
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,880
need all of the above and
there's not enough of it in the

577
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:24,560
market to sustain it.
So, you know, I, I think M&A

578
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:28,080
makes sense.
I think we, we will see somebody

579
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,240
come in and eventually restart a
lot of these mines that have

580
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,760
that have been shut down here
recently.

581
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,520
But you know, who's going to
lead that capital cycle?

582
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,880
I wouldn't be surprised if it's
someone like Matt Lattimore.

583
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,360
I think think he's position
pretty well to, you know, to

584
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:49,920
make a move here in the next
during the next cycle at some

585
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,960
point the cold.
Tycoon of this cycle,

586
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,800
undoubtedly.
Yeah, for sure the II is going

587
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,600
to be very involved, yeah.
I imagine a bunch will pop out

588
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,880
of Glen Tinto if if that deal
eventually, I'd still be plenty

589
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,960
of plenty of divestments
subsequent to that deal.

590
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:11,880
Yeah, and we're talking about
maybe a coal spin out of the

591
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,320
Glen Tinto deal as well.
I'm here for that.

592
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,680
Give that to me all day.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.

593
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:24,480
Let's let's talk about Lattimore
briefly because a recent, a

594
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:29,400
recent deal that that they did
do was acquire Illawarra out of

595
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:30,960
S 32.
Do you think that will come back

596
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:32,560
to market in some way, shape or
form?

597
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,840
Do you think they'll yeah,
that'll that'll find like a

598
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,920
public vehicle?
Public vehicle.

599
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:41,880
That's a good question.
I don't necessarily know the

600
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:47,480
answer to that, but I think it
would, it would make sense

601
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:50,680
especially if he were able to,
you know, tack on a few other

602
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:56,120
acquisitions as well.
So I saw they had the they had

603
00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,200
an incident up there at some
point in time here recently.

604
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,920
I'm not sure what the, what the
current status is of those

605
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,000
operations, but the, the, the
message I think is pretty clear

606
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,760
is that if you're operating in
Australia, an economy of scale

607
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,679
will do you really well.
I mean, BH PS been able to

608
00:34:13,679 --> 00:34:15,960
weather those, those production
storms because they have a

609
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:20,120
pretty big portfolio of assets.
And I think that's, you know,

610
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,280
that's that's the case as well.
It's like if you're a single

611
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,960
asset, producers have been, you
know, very exposed to these

612
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,159
price cycles in the past.
So you need to get it that

613
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:34,320
critical, you know, 345, you
know, operations and preferably

614
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,120
as many as you can in the
premium segment as well in order

615
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:43,560
to be I think guaranteed a, you
know, a throne in the next, in

616
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,920
the next cycle.
That's actually, I'm glad you

617
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,080
mentioned BHP because that's,
that's we heard a rumor like I

618
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:54,080
want to say October last year
that yeah, BHP would was likely

619
00:34:54,080 --> 00:35:00,640
to to evaluate a divestment of
BMA by the calendar end of

620
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,400
calendar year 26.
Do you think there's that's

621
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,000
Johnson?
So do you think, do you think

622
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,600
that might hold up if, if the
royalty regime in Queensland

623
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:11,720
stays where it is?
I don't think that's out of the

624
00:35:11,720 --> 00:35:14,320
question at all.
I mean, it would they kind of

625
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:18,000
signaled that they want to line
that down to some degree in the

626
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:24,680
past and you know what the right
price, especially with those

627
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:26,440
remaining reserves.
Like do you want to carry that

628
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:30,240
operating risk on through
another capital cycle for them

629
00:35:30,240 --> 00:35:33,720
when they have, you know, bigger
fish to fry elsewhere?

630
00:35:34,240 --> 00:35:35,880
It's a good question.
I wouldn't be surprised to see

631
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,120
it change hands at some point in
time or maybe not all of it, but

632
00:35:39,720 --> 00:35:43,960
one or two targeted mines over
over a period of time or

633
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:46,080
alternately they acquire
something and then spin it out.

634
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:48,560
I think that would be pretty
reasonable as well.

635
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,800
Excuse our Australian bias, but
you know we're just going to

636
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,800
keep talking about Australian
coal companies that but.

637
00:35:56,520 --> 00:36:00,200
Well, like on that point, Trev,
in the context of bombastin and,

638
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,040
and the fact that there's next
to no new mines coming online,

639
00:36:04,720 --> 00:36:07,960
given the, the, the high quality
nature and the, the strategic

640
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:12,160
placement of, of the assets and
the, you know, the shackles they

641
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,920
have with the royalty regime,
you'd have to think it'd be,

642
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:20,400
it'd be kind of appealing with,
you know, the, you know, as an

643
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:23,240
option type play with the idea
that maybe the royalties roll

644
00:36:23,240 --> 00:36:25,440
off in a, in a few years time.
That could be something that's

645
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,600
that's pretty interesting
depending on on prices you put

646
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:32,720
it there.
Yeah, if the royalty regime went

647
00:36:32,720 --> 00:36:38,120
back to the before times, let's
say in five years.

648
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,680
That won't happen.
No, not not while state like

649
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,560
Queensland state debt just
explodes exponentially faster

650
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:46,640
than the.
Royalty revenue?

651
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,680
Oh, easy.
That's that's true.

652
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,800
That's true, yeah.
But let's let's say they they

653
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:57,240
use all of them back then.
Yeah, I mean, that's a call

654
00:36:57,240 --> 00:36:59,600
option on whatever purchase it
is that you make, right.

655
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:02,960
You can't necessarily work that
into the you know, you could

656
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,720
write it in as a scenario in
terms of a potential valuation,

657
00:37:05,720 --> 00:37:09,800
but without, you know, without
any, you know, guarantee of of

658
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,400
whether or not that's going to
happen, I don't think you can

659
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,040
pay for it.
It's, you know, you can maybe

660
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:19,160
use it to justify, you know, an
additional 5, 10% upside or

661
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,680
something like that, but.
The structure of those royalties

662
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,120
was, was mental as well, because
it was designed to kind of

663
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,480
capture this super profit
period, but but at these fixed

664
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:31,240
price levels.
And so like, you know, it became

665
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,640
increasingly onerous at the
above certain fixed kind of like

666
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:37,360
prices, right.
And and now with just the, the

667
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:41,040
event of inflation, it, it, it
completely just erodes any, any

668
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,760
ability for these businesses to
have any margin over time,

669
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,960
right.
You would think so, but at the

670
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,840
same time, you know, the US is
doing a really outstanding job

671
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,480
of torching the dollar here at
the moment.

672
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:59,640
And and yeah, right.
I mean, the, the, the Australian

673
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:03,840
U.S. dollar crossed 70 for the
first time and God knows how

674
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:04,800
long.
It's been a while.

675
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,000
And at least when I run my
models, that's the difference in

676
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:13,960
price there is about plus $5 on,
you know, on long term forecast

677
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:18,280
for a, for met coal.
But the other thing it does is

678
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:23,000
it, I mean, if it'll say if the,
if the Aussie dollar went back

679
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:27,160
to parity, like where it was,
you know, during the last, you

680
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,400
know, during the first coal boom
that I went through, well that

681
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,320
that takes away a lot of the,
the upside for royalties.

682
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,640
You know, if we get back up to
300 four, $100 and we're saying

683
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,880
that's the Max that, you know,
these other countries, steel,

684
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,560
steel industries can handle.
Well, if that's only 300 or 400

685
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,080
Aussie dollars at the same time,
that's not quite as big of a hit

686
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:52,240
that the government will get.
So, you know, the, the US hasn't

687
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,280
has a, you know, sort of a what
is that a tertiary role to play

688
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,960
in, in, in how that pans out
over time.

689
00:39:01,240 --> 00:39:05,360
So, and that and, you know,
speaking, you know, solely from

690
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,760
from perspective over here, it
ain't stopping during this

691
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:11,960
presidency.
There is a 0% chance that we

692
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:17,920
will stop hemorrhaging money, I
think over the next three years.

693
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:22,360
And, and I'm not sure that the,
you know, even in the event of,

694
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,000
you know, Democrats taking over
the Senate and us returning to

695
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,600
gridlock or God forbid, you
know, whoever the, the next to

696
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:32,200
the next Democratic president
is, we're, we're going to have

697
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:37,120
different, different versions of
the same problem until something

698
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:41,080
breaks here in the US.
So I, I think, I think we're

699
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:45,000
kind of at the beginning of a,
of a currency cycle that is way

700
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,560
above my pay grade, but
something that I think all of us

701
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,760
will have to pay very close
attention to over the coming

702
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:54,200
five years.
Because what if, if I can change

703
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,560
the value of the currency by 10%
and that changes the METCO price

704
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,560
by $5, What happens if we change
it by 30%?

705
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:06,880
That's that's kind of where, you
know, I have to take off my

706
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:10,320
analyst hat and just go.
I don't know what's going to

707
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:11,600
happen here at this point in
time.

708
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,320
So most of what we can do is
just take the, the, the, the

709
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,800
variables that we have, plug
them into the model and solve

710
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,200
for X.
And when we start mucking around

711
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,960
with the variables, you know,
that's a pretty wide range of

712
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:27,880
outcomes for, for everything.
So it's a, it's why I hate

713
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:29,160
politics, man.
It's so fun.

714
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,680
When you plug those variables
into your models.

715
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:36,720
Man, I'm just, I'm, I'm keen to
depict how you know, your

716
00:40:36,720 --> 00:40:40,200
relative preference of, of the,
of the cold stocks we're

717
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,840
familiar with by, by, you know,
relative to their current price.

718
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,040
You know, I think just just if
you could like order names like

719
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:52,480
Stanmore, Yankel, Whitehaven,
that that'd be wonderful.

720
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,040
I mean, I think, I think
Stanmore is criminally

721
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:58,920
undervalued down here.
Yeah, I'm just looking at

722
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,360
trailing EV to EBITDA, which
isn't the best metric, but it's

723
00:41:02,360 --> 00:41:05,160
what I have in front of me.
And you know, Whitehaven's up

724
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:09,640
at, you know, 5 and a 5.3 and
then Stanmore's at 3.8.

725
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,720
That's just wrong.
And then, you know, in the US,

726
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:17,280
you know, on the Mets side, you
know, Alpha's at 5.5 should be,

727
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,360
shouldn't Whitehaven get the US
multiple?

728
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:24,160
It should absolutely, you know,
get get something comparable, I

729
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:28,440
think in those Warriors at 7.9.
I mean, come on, guys, White

730
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:32,640
Whitehaven's as big a global
player and just as important to

731
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,800
to the global industry and in
more diverse.

732
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,000
Yeah, like let's let's get those
numbers up.

733
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,560
Those are rookie numbers.
Well, you can, you can thank

734
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:43,160
Aussie Super.
I think they're they're helping

735
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,840
the cause and buying Whitehaven
stock again so.

736
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,760
I mean, it's been on a hater
like it's nearly doubled in the

737
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,880
in the last, I don't know, 12
months or something like that.

738
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,120
So yeah, quietly, quietly
finding popularity.

739
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:58,120
And that's like that, you know,
I mentioned Aussie Super by

740
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,800
Whitehaven again, but there's,
there's absolutely this kind of

741
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,640
evolution in global capital
allocation.

742
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,680
You know, Black Rocks had many
iterations of its ESG influence

743
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,920
on the world.
And, and we're now in ESG 4

744
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:14,960
point O era, which is, is the,
the realization that that these

745
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:18,160
businesses are incredibly
important to our prosperity and

746
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,200
that they shouldn't have been so
punitive in in their their their

747
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,720
ways of restricting capital
flows into these businesses

748
00:42:24,720 --> 00:42:26,880
previously it.
Matters tremendously for the

749
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,760
cost of capital.
Hey, Matt, like the the change

750
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,240
in debt that these guys are
playing like you've probably got

751
00:42:32,240 --> 00:42:34,120
more, more boots on the ground,
so to speak.

752
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,240
It's cheap again.
Yeah, you can get, you can get

753
00:42:36,240 --> 00:42:37,560
really cheap debt as a coal
company.

754
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,560
I mean, it was crazy high.
It was it was out of this world

755
00:42:40,560 --> 00:42:42,320
high.
But I'm not sure what the latest

756
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,840
numbers on on debt packages for
the for the states companies

757
00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:48,880
that you're seeing are, but but
it's really pulled in over here.

758
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,720
I mean, you know, I don't think
it's out of the question to be

759
00:42:52,720 --> 00:42:56,280
able to go get an 8 1/2% coupon,
10% coupon somewhere around in

760
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:57,720
there.
And that was unheard of.

761
00:42:57,720 --> 00:42:59,120
Just a few.
Well, getting anything was

762
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:00,560
unheard of a few years ago.
Yeah.

763
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,520
And and and the Fed's rate, the
Fed's fund rate was, was next to

764
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,960
0 a few years ago as well.
And now we're whatever it is, 4%

765
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,280
or something.
Yeah.

766
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:12,560
Yeah, exactly.
I mean, you know, all these coal

767
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,960
companies which were, you know,
left for dead in the first part

768
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,440
of my career all have better
balance sheets than the United

769
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:18,800
States.
So God bless.

770
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,840
That is great.
Just wait for the United States

771
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,840
to nationalize them, then
they'll have bad balance sheets

772
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,000
again.
Never say never.

773
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:36,280
I yeah, I can see a scenario
where that that could play out.

774
00:43:37,720 --> 00:43:42,040
And but yeah, just looking down
the list, I mean, I think, I

775
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,480
think New Hope is probably
pretty fairly valued here.

776
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:49,120
They've had a nice little, you
know, 13% up to to kind of catch

777
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,280
up with everybody else here the
last little bit.

778
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:58,800
Yanco had a nice 20% run last.
And then, yeah, Whitehaven's, I

779
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:00,960
mean, Whitehaven's going to take
out all time highs of this cycle

780
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:02,480
and just keep going.
Yeah.

781
00:44:02,720 --> 00:44:06,120
So I, I pretty firmly believe in
that the, that we should see it

782
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,560
re rate higher up to sort of the
US guys at least.

783
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,240
And I want to see Stanmore get
up into the fives like that

784
00:44:12,240 --> 00:44:14,840
should be a $4.00 stock and I'll
see $4.00 stock at least.

785
00:44:15,360 --> 00:44:19,560
Yeah, yeah.
And XASX names where you know

786
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,160
where.
What are your most favored

787
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:25,080
stocks at the moment?
I mean, I'm still pretty firmly

788
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,120
on the Mets side.
You know, we're at the beginning

789
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:30,160
of this cycle here.
I want to be, you know, I'm not

790
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:33,600
fully sized in anything coal
right now, but I think maybe by

791
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,400
the time we get to the end of
shoulder season, end of June, I

792
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:41,600
want, you know, at least, you
know, a 1520% basket, you know,

793
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,840
allocated across the MET sector,
which would include really in no

794
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:53,760
particular order, AMR Warrior,
HCC, Ramaco, METC, Whitehaven

795
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:57,840
and Stanmore, I think would be
and core natural resources shit.

796
00:44:57,840 --> 00:44:59,680
And Peabody, I don't have any
Peabody right now either.

797
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,960
So there's seven and they're all
fine.

798
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,960
Like, you know, it's, it's sort
of like pick your pick your

799
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,720
horse.
Peabody's interesting because

800
00:45:08,720 --> 00:45:10,680
we're, we're increasing low Vol
production.

801
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:13,280
We're going to have a pretty
good thermal cool year in the

802
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,000
Illinois Basin and the Powder
River Basin.

803
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:19,200
You know, it's, it's already
completely come back to the

804
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,760
highs from, from the Anglo days
of yore.

805
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,680
But yeah, it's if they start
buying back, back stock,

806
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,880
especially there's, there's room
for that to sort of go higher as

807
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:35,040
well.
So anyway, I'm, I've got, you

808
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,760
know, I've got my calendar
circled for end of June and I

809
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:42,160
want to have, you know, a basket
of all these and which one's

810
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:46,760
going to be the highest
allocated at that time will kind

811
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,800
of depend on where we wind up in
the cycle.

812
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,960
But, you know, right now, I
think you can make a case for,

813
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,560
you know, putting almost any of
those at the top at any one

814
00:45:55,560 --> 00:46:00,040
point, at any one point in time.
I mean, you know, Ramaco isn't

815
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,120
the isn't the biggest producer,
but they've got all the, you

816
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:07,640
know, the rare earth marketing
hype is that their gap is.

817
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,760
Is that what?
Is that what lured you in to

818
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,160
start talking about rare earth
as well, Matt, Was it?

819
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,400
Was it Ramaco?
It was, it was pretty clear that

820
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:21,120
if we want to have any sort of
basis in reality for

821
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:25,200
understanding what valuations
look like for now, keep in mind

822
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:28,920
Peabody and, and core natural
resources also have mines in the

823
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:32,360
PRB that will have, you know,
comparable, you know,

824
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:38,160
concentrations of, of, you know,
gallium and, and, you know,

825
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,920
light rare earths mostly, I
would figure Scandi and those

826
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:43,840
sorts of things.
And the US government is

827
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,480
currently writing checks at a
pretty alarming clip.

828
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:50,240
So yeah, that's, that's why I
had to start kind of digging in

829
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:54,400
and at least becoming familiar
enough with the sector that I

830
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:58,160
could function a little bit.
And, you know, along the way it

831
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:04,360
sort of became really clear that
the, I mean, the, the oxide

832
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:05,760
really isn't the constraint
there.

833
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:10,640
It's metalization, you know,
it's, you know, SX processing

834
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,480
metalization.
So those are the companies that

835
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,280
that I probably want to focus on
more over the longer term

836
00:47:16,840 --> 00:47:19,400
because like we don't have
anybody in the US who knows how

837
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:21,800
to run any of these operations.
So we're going to have to

838
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,760
rebuild all the expertise we're
going to have to, you know,

839
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:28,160
import the technology we're
going to have to, you know, near

840
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:32,240
shore or friendly shore raw
material supply.

841
00:47:32,240 --> 00:47:37,120
Because like, other than MP, you
know, we have, you know, Round

842
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:42,840
Top is, you know, without a
processing facility located

843
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,280
nearby, like would not be a mine
in and of itself.

844
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:50,240
You know, So it, it's the way
that I look at this is, there's,

845
00:47:50,240 --> 00:47:53,040
it's the West versus China and
the West is in the process of

846
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,280
aligning.
And that means, you know,

847
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,160
partnerships between the US and
Australia, partnerships between

848
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,280
the US and Brazil.
It's just, you know, rally the

849
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:06,320
troops and let's, let's see if
we can, you know, create a, you

850
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:10,800
know, downstream magnet
manufacturing industry that that

851
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:13,880
lies outside of China for the
first time in, you know, 30

852
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:15,360
years.
It's it's going to be group

853
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:19,000
effort, boys.
And do you have a first past

854
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:21,920
view on the, the stockpile
announcement that that came out

855
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,880
I think over overnight for us
here in, in Australia.

856
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:29,280
But in a nutshell, Trump wanting
to to put together a $12 billion

857
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:33,840
U.S. group of any witch meadows.
It wasn't exactly clear.

858
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,160
Pretty pretty light on details.
Yeah.

859
00:48:37,200 --> 00:48:39,960
I mean, I think Samarium
Europium, I think those were

860
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:43,760
kind of two at the at the top
end of the want spectrum, at

861
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:47,880
least from what I understand.
But yeah, like that also that

862
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,440
comes on the heel of that
Reuters article last week, which

863
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:53,480
absolutely rug pulled the whole
sector.

864
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,880
Yeah, it was edited.
Yeah, it was edited like 4 times

865
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,560
to the point where it was like
why?

866
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,040
Why did you even write the that
was?

867
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,840
Such good entertainment.
What like MP materials?

868
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,800
Twitter.
Handle Yeah, shout out to MP

869
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:09,600
materials, social media.
That was the most fun thing I've

870
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:13,040
read in a long time.
The but it's, you know, it just

871
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,000
absolutely punished most of
those companies for no real

872
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:18,440
reason.
And then the announcement that

873
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:20,560
we're going to build these
stockpiles just basically proves

874
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:21,960
it.
Like there's there's more than

875
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,880
one way that that Trump can
implement tariffs.

876
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,760
You know, there's more than one
way that we can set floor

877
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,000
prices.
Like there's, you know, I I

878
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:34,240
understand that it's news.
And like, if you go out and you

879
00:49:34,240 --> 00:49:36,480
have somebody give that quote to
you in your journals, you got to

880
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,080
print it.
Absolutely.

881
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,640
But you should at least do the
product of work to understand

882
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:43,520
that even if this happens, are
there other avenues to get

883
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:44,720
there?
And that's kind of what I

884
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:48,800
thought that they failed to do.
Like markets are complex and if

885
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:52,880
there's demand for something, it
will find a way and it will show

886
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,520
up on it, you know, in price,
whether you wanted to or not.

887
00:49:55,840 --> 00:50:00,640
They're very funny like that.
So anyway, that's that's my take

888
00:50:00,640 --> 00:50:03,520
As to as to how that progresses,
I don't know, but it was it was

889
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:05,800
a nice bookend to the
shenanigans from last week.

890
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:08,480
Totally, Totally.
I mean, for all the complexity,

891
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:12,160
the fact that one Reuters
article can shake the market

892
00:50:12,160 --> 00:50:15,320
like that is, yeah, entertaining
if anything.

893
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:18,960
All the paper hands over here in
the US good and.

894
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:23,280
That's not us at all.
Those are rookie numbers.

895
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:28,640
That's an absolute delight to
speak with you about all things

896
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:31,120
Cole.
As always, look forward to yeah,

897
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,680
you being accompanied by your
partner Joe next time that

898
00:50:33,720 --> 00:50:36,400
you're you grace us with your
presence on our on our channel.

899
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:39,440
But thank you so much.
Thanks for having me, guys.

900
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:41,400
It's so wonderful to get to talk
to you every time.

901
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:44,160
And absolutely, we'll bring a
guest here next time so that I

902
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,280
can wax, so we can wax more
poetic about the thermal coal

903
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:48,680
side.
Look forward to it.

904
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:49,800
Have a good one, Matt.
Thank you.

905
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,160
There we go, mate.
What a pleasure as always

906
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:55,200
speaking with Matt Water, you
can check out his fantastic work

907
00:50:55,240 --> 00:50:59,280
on sub stack at the coal trader
and he's also got the the rare

908
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:00,960
earth trader.
He puts out a bunch of work

909
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:02,000
there.
Super insightful.

910
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,520
So go check that out and all
made possible thanks to our

911
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:07,000
fantastic partners.
Standard ground support focus,

912
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:08,800
the platform by market tech.
You would have seen some of the

913
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:12,120
charts in the show there
Interlinks and Exceed Capital

914
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:16,160
Puduru, Puduru.
Now remember, I'm an idiot.

915
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:18,920
JD is an idiot.
If you thought any of this was

916
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,440
anything other than
entertainment, you're an idiot

917
00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:22,960
and you need to read out
disclaimer.